ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
northern watch said:

US warship operates in Black Sea in first instance since Russian invasion of Ukraine​

The US warship visited Turkey, a NATO country along the Black Sea that has maintained a strong relationship with Russia.​

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Published: FEBRUARY 7, 2023 05:04
Updated: FEBRUARY 7, 2023 07:54

The US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze (R) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf depart Naval Station Norfolk to ride out the storm in the Atlantic Ocean ahead of Hurricane Florence, in Norfolk, Virginia, September 10, 2018. (photo credit: US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS JUSTIN WOLPERT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

The US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze (R) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf depart Naval Station Norfolk to ride out the storm in the Atlantic Ocean ahead of Hurricane Florence, in Norfolk, Virginia, September 10, 2018.
(photo credit: US NAVY/MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS JUSTIN WOLPERT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

A United States warship, a Destroyer named USS Nitze, was seen to be operating in the Black Sea. This is the closest a US warship has been to Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.

Nitze operates as part of the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group.

The ship entered the region and visited Turkey on February 3rd, which was confirmed on the Twitter account of the US Navy's Sixth Fleet.

Several days later, the ship also visited Piraeus in Greece.

The last American warship to enter the Black Sea region did so in December of 2021.

Russian missile cruiser Moskva is moored in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, May 10, 2013. (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER/FILE PHOTO)


Russian missile cruiser Moskva is moored in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, May 10, 2013. (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER/FILE PHOTO)

The significance of the visit of the US warship amid the Russia-Ukraine War​

The US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake and the US Consulate General to Istanbul Julie Eadeh visited the ship for several hours.

The ambassador made no connection between the ship’s presence and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Rather, Flake described the visit as an opportunity to strengthen a NATO relationship.

“Turkey is a highly valued NATO Ally,” Flake said in a Sixth Fleet news release. “Nitze’s visit is an opportunity to further strengthen our long-standing and vital partnership with Turkey.”

Notably, The United States has recently issued warnings to Turkey about Turkish exports to Russia. The exports include chemicals, microchips and other products that can be used in Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

Turkey has also been blocking Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, which some have said would benefit Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

www.jpost.com

US warship in Black Sea for 1st time since Russia invaded Ukraine

The US warship visited Turkey, a NATO country along the Black Sea that has maintained a strong relationship with Russia.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
Click to expand...


JPOST got it wrong. The ship never entered the Black Sea or the Bosporus Strait. The port visited is SE of Istanbul.

ALERT - RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
 
W

Walrus

Veteran Member
Doc1 said:
As Ukraine has already lost thousands of fairly modern Warsaw Pact tanks and as the Leopard I is a somewhat dated design, I can't see that 178 Leopard Is - assuming they can be delivered in a timely fashion - will make too much difference.

Best
Doc
Click to expand...
Report from the Danes today is that the 100 L-1 tanks they're going to "deliver immediately" have been decommissioned from service since the mid-90s and it'll take several months to get a couple battalions' worth (about 80 tanks) into some semblance of service. Then they'll be used for "training", assuming that they have ammunition.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Walrus said:
Ha. Shows that I've given up trying to read the whole thread, doesn't it?

In its research and tech service groups (both in Sunbury and the US tech operations support divisions), BP used to have several Russian PhD mathematicians and physicists. Those folks could figure out things which were absolutely amazing; they were good people to work with as well. Even through the 90s when Russia was battling through its culture of post-Soviet Union and going through the iterations as it shed its ideological Communist underpinnings - especially including its education system - I found that those people could be counted on to tackle just about anything.
Click to expand...

Oh man, there is so much detail coming out that it is impossible to keep up.

This device is really astounding. Very effective anti-battery capability and done without endangering itself.

It had to be quite a shock for our wiz kids when the Russians were able to effectively deal with our wonder weapon MLRS.

Guess the Russians are a bit more capable than a corrupt dictatorship like Iraq, which the US/NATO have not figured out yet. :)
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Abert said:
n the other hand - also will documented and verified - the Unitarian's are now grabbing (Press Gangs) young (and old) men off the street and forcing them into uniform - these are NOT former solders - a few weeks "training" and off to the trenches - where their life expectancy is likely measured in days!
Click to expand...
FYI up thread a veteran Ukrainian soldier said the new recruits only lasted 4 hours.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Russia Controls One Third Bakhmut, Ukraine Losses Unsustainable, US Arms Deliveries Dwindle​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVQFC0dEUU

Runtime - 1:03:31
Feb 7, 2023

(timeline from comments)

TIME STAMPS

- Earthquake 00:00

- 1/3 of Bakhmut under RU control 03:25

- Siversk 10:40

- Daily Telegraph: New Defense line? 12:04

- Marinka-Vuhledar 15:40

- North region 19:50

- Overall Russian upping pressure 24:25

- Russian casualties 25:40

- Ukrainian casualties 30:05

- Ukraine mobilization 36:10

- Exhaustion/morale symptoms 43:00

- Russian units seem to stay identical 44:10

- Political news - Gueterres comment 45:50

- Who has obstructed peace so far 50:25

- Western arms supplies dwindling 51:25

- British soldier exposes tanks farce 56:00

- Germans sending Leopard-1 tanks 58:20

- Western powers failing 01:01:00
 
D

DuckandCover

Proud Sheeple
wait-n-see said:
Oh man, there is so much detail coming out that it is impossible to keep up.

This device is really astounding. Very effective anti-battery capability and done without endangering itself.

It had to be quite a shock for our wiz kids when the Russians were able to effectively deal with our wonder weapon MLRS.

Guess the Russians are a bit more capable than a corrupt dictatorship like Iraq, which the US/NATO have not figured out yet. :)
Click to expand...

Honest question.............. if the Russian equipment is so awesome, how come they haven't been able to overcome the Ukrainians after one year of war? I have no doubt they are numerically superior, but I would have thought that superior numbers along with superior equipment would have resulted in a lopsided, quick victory for them.
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
intothatgoodnight said:
An apparent twist to what many have seen before, in contemporary history.

Heads-up, Oreally. An alleged American citizen living in the Ukraine, chasing Ukrainian women and song, and hanging out at the coffee-shops, may become noticed.

-------------------------------------------

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec0XKhAHR5I
Runtime: 02:18

Fortunate Son - Lyrics and Music by John Fogerty

Creedence Clearwater Revival

Album - "Willy And The Poor Boys" (1969)

Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Ooh, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail To The Chief"
Ooh, they point the cannon at you, Lord

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no senator's son, son
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, oh
But when the taxman come to the door
Lord, the house lookin' like a rummage sale, yeah

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son, no, no
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

Yeah!
Some folks inherit star-spangled eyes
Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask 'em, "How much should we give?"
Ooh, they only answer, "More! More! More!" Yo

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no military son, son
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, one

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no fortunate one, no no no
It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no fortunate son, no no no
It ain't me, it ain't me
Click to expand...

everyone i know here knows where i stand.. but lol!!!
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
wait-n-see said:

Russia Controls One Third Bakhmut, Ukraine Losses Unsustainable, US Arms Deliveries Dwindle​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVQFC0dEUU

Runtime - 1:03:31
Feb 7, 2023

(timeline from comments)

TIME STAMPS

- Earthquake 00:00

- 1/3 of Bakhmut under RU control 03:25

- Siversk 10:40

- Daily Telegraph: New Defense line? 12:04

- Marinka-Vuhledar 15:40

- North region 19:50

- Overall Russian upping pressure 24:25

- Russian casualties 25:40

- Ukrainian casualties 30:05

- Ukraine mobilization 36:10

- Exhaustion/morale symptoms 43:00

- Russian units seem to stay identical 44:10

- Political news - Gueterres comment 45:50

- Who has obstructed peace so far 50:25

- Western arms supplies dwindling 51:25

- British soldier exposes tanks farce 56:00

- Germans sending Leopard-1 tanks 58:20

- Western powers failing 01:01:00
Click to expand...
bullshit
 
J

JeanCat

Veteran Member
McClellan was in same situation in civil war. Lee ran rings around him. You have to let your fighters rise to the top. We are in about same boat as Putin. I dare say a lot of our military leaders are sorry. War moves so fast today or could that we may not have competent fighters that know how to kill people and break things have time to rise to the top. It is perilous times.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
DuckandCover said:
Honest question.............. if the Russian equipment is so awesome, how come they haven't been able to overcome the Ukrainians after one year of war? I have no doubt they are numerically superior, but I would have thought that superior numbers along with superior equipment would have resulted in a lopsided, quick victory for them.
Click to expand...

Not a straight out answer, but one consisting of a number of observations. I'll just throw them out as I think about them. Please ignore any major grammar blunder as I'm doing this during a quick break. :)

The standing Russian Army is nothing like any of the other standing armies. Russia's Army primarily consist of conscripts. with short term enlistments. The peace time Russian Army does not have a lot of regulars, like the US. Russia trains differently than the US. US has big training centers, and then send out troops to fill out formations. Russia has the training done by the gaining unit. Russia rotates units in combat helping to keep cohesion, western replaces loses within a unit losing cohesion. Russia builds the Army it needs after the war has started.

Putin, and the Russian leadership really thought they could walk in and take Ukraine. They, and everyone else including the west, did not figure in the training and equipment provided to Ukraine since the fake Minsk accords.

What is said about plans and a battle? The plan last until the battle starts.

The Russians fought almost all of last year badly outnumbered, dealing with the consequences of massive corruption within the peace time Russian military, with primarily conscript troops who fully thought they were getting out in months. They themselves even said they had no idea they were entering Ukraine. Pretty hard for a man to fight hard when he has no idea that he was supposed to be fighting. While a large part of the Ukraine military is just average, there was, and still is, a hard fighting ass kicking SOB element in there that could take on any military in the world today.

Despite having numbers, massive amounts of western equipment, intel support from US/NATO and very good fighting elements, Ukraine still could not force Russia out of at least 20% of the country in a year. Also, the locations where the toughest fighting has been going on at have been undergoing fortification building for years and it is common knowledge of the industrial construction under these locations that would greatly enhance defensive activities.

Not much to say for the artillery, and missile, warfare and the requirement for ammunition that is not already known. In both, the west badly misjudged the way that type of war was to be fought, and Russia shows it had planned for it. Also shows why you don't close down the manufacturing industry that supports your military. Plus, the Russians massively outnumber Ukraine in tubes and ammunition.

However, it is changing for both Ukraine and Russia. The mobilized Russian men from this winter are reservist, not like Ukraine with kids and middle aged and old men press ganged from the streets and pulled from their mothers arms to go fight without any training and be cannon fodder due to the heavy losses suffered through artillery. The Russian troops, who are the same as our reserve troops who volunteered to do the job, have received at least 3 months training with their units to prepare for what is coming.

I'm sure you seen the articles showing how Ukraine is now on its 3rd army of equipment, meaning Ukraine has already lost enough equipment to flesh out the armies of 2 countries.

Notice how Israel still defers to Russia? That is so Russia does not employ it's Air Defense zone in the ME. If the US/NATO are stupid enough to try and take on Russia in Ukraine, then it will be their turn to be as shell shocked as the Russians were when this all started, when the Russians employ their version of Air Defense.

Russia has already won.

The question remaining is how much Ukraine is allowed to keep after Russia takes what it wants, and how much blood and death the DS and Zippy demand of the Ukraine people.

I'm sure I missed some items that, to me, support this conclusion. However, I don't want to make this a book. :)
 
Last edited:
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Wagner Assault Units BREAKTHROUGH North of Bakhmut​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOL0EDC6q7U

Runtime - 17:11
Feb 7, 2023

The battle of attrition over Bakhmut continues as Zelensky ordered the city to be defended at all cost. Russian forces are encircling the Ukrainian Army, and now control 2 out of 3 supply roads left for the Bakhmut garrison. Meanwhile, Wagner units are tightening their grip on the East bank of the Bakhmutka river. There are rumors that the best Ukrainian formations are being withdrawn from the cauldron.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
wait-n-see said:
@@@

Chemical warfare at a personnel level? No way, Ukraine be the "Good Guys"!

But just maybe, maybe this is true, eh?

@@@
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622821900861997057
View: https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1622821900861997057?cxt=HHwWgoDU6fb6tYUtAAAA


@@@

Truth!!

@@@
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622951327541207040
View: https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1622951327541207040?cxt=HHwWgIC93cbo8IUtAAAA


@@@

Zippy and his cadre really think they do rule the world. Just imagine how insane they get the closer they get to final defeat.

@@@
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622864474901192707
View: https://twitter.com/wumao101/status/1622864474901192707?cxt=HHwWhoCxkYipyYUtAAAA
Click to expand...
All the "niceties" go out the window when home, hearth and family are involved.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Walrus said:
Ha. Shows that I've given up trying to read the whole thread, doesn't it?
Click to expand...

Many finally threw in the towel and either put those who provide useful info on their "followed" lists so they could see only that, or put those who insist on clogging up threads with their trolling agendas, bickering, or endless self agrandizing recitals of things we learned in grammar school, had covered dozens of times, etc, on ignore. : (

Don't give up, looks like we're approaching the end of them having fought to the last Ukrainian, and this abomination is nearing the point where it will spread and engulf even more o' the globe; thus the news will become ever more, not less, important.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
CaryC said:
FYI up thread a veteran Ukrainian soldier said the new recruits only lasted 4 hours.
Click to expand...
That number is pretty close with what I've read about the life expectancy of US infantry replacements in WW2 in active parts of the line vs the Germans.
 
R

raven

TB Fanatic
A

Abert

Veteran Member
jward said:
Brady Africk
@bradyafr
13m

Russian forces are expanding fortifications across occupied regions of Ukraine. New satellite imagery shows some of these ongoing construction efforts near Tarasivka (Zaporizhizhia Oblast).

Check out an interactive map of Russia’s fortifications here: Sign in - Google Accounts
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623082928283746304
View: https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1623082928283746304?s=20
Click to expand...
Without question they are preparing for the possibility of NATO (US & Poland) troops joining the war. If necessary this provides them with solid fallback locations to regroup. Currently they are advancing at several points along the front against out gunned and out maned Ukrainian positions but that can all change if faced with several hundred thousand new NATO troops and supporting equipment. The Russian will not attempt to hold an area that is not defensible - better to fall back to a secure well fortified location and have the enemy attempt to attack across open fields with little to no cover.
 
mistaken1

mistaken1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DuckandCover said:
Honest question.............. if the Russian equipment is so awesome, how come they haven't been able to overcome the Ukrainians after one year of war? I have no doubt they are numerically superior, but I would have thought that superior numbers along with superior equipment would have resulted in a lopsided, quick victory for them.
Click to expand...

Define overcome.

Lightning advance to kiev and capture zippy? No.

Slowly but surely take control of donbas and grind down the ukranian army? More success there it seems.

My understanding is that ukraine had the largest army in europe when russia invaded. After a year ukraine is dependent upon a continuous infusion of weapons from the west. Which brings up the question what happened to all the goodies ukraine had when the war started?
 
B

bobfall2005

Veteran Member
DuckandCover said:
Honest question.............. if the Russian equipment is so awesome, how come they haven't been able to overcome the Ukrainians after one year of war? I have no doubt they are numerically superior, but I would have thought that superior numbers along with superior equipment would have resulted in a lopsided, quick victory for them.
Click to expand...
Very good question.
 
Hognutz

Hognutz

Has No Life - Lives on TB
smoothiex12.blogspot.com

This Now Gets Totally Surreal... Larry And Helmholtz Smith On SMO.

Larry posts Mr. Smith's excellent summary of NATO. It is short and to the point. It is also brilliant, enjoy it at Larry's blog: THE REAL NA...
smoothiex12.blogspot.com smoothiex12.blogspot.com


Tuesday, February 7, 2023​

This Now Gets Totally Surreal... Larry And Helmholtz Smith On SMO.​


Larry posts Mr. Smith's excellent summary of NATO. It is short and to the point. It is also brilliant, enjoy it at Larry's blog:

THE REAL NATO BY HELMHOLTZ SMITH
Click to expand...
​

Clarity is a gift. Then Larry explains a strategic miscalculation of the West.​


Thanks to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett we now know that Washington and London sabotaged diplomatic efforts to end the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. The West made the stupid bet that Russia could be defeated through a combination of economic sanctions, propaganda and military aid for Ukraine. The Americans and their NATO partners bet the lives of Ukrainians on their imperialist dream and now are becoming more desperate trying to fend off the looming defeat that confronts Ukraine and, by extension, NATO. The West has poked the Russian bear and are having great difficulty coming to grips with the reality that Russia is not impotent and Putin is not on his last legs. To the contrary, the failed Western strategy has awakened the Russians and cemented their resolve to defeat the NATO threat. Take a look at Putin’s recent remarks commemorating Russia’s victory at Stalingrad 80 years ago. It remains a fresh memory for the Russian people.
Click to expand...
Well, the idiot Brzezinsky who prescribed a lot of catchy geopolitical BS to the US, never understood a simple fact of the chessboard, of which he pretended to know something, while being clueless, that even the pawn can mate the opposition when supported by proper heavy figures. But then again, can you imagine explaining the whole framework of geopolitical realities to a political "science" major from the US "academe"? There you go.
But not to be outdone, Germany does this:




I mean this:


Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius (SPD) ist zu einem unangekündigten Besuch in Kiew eingetroffen. Wie ein Sprecher des ukrainischen Verteidigungsministeriums sagte, traf Pistorius am Dienstag in Kiew den ukrainischen Verteidigungsminister Oleksij Resnikow. Resnikow veröffentlichte auf Twitter ein Foto, das ihn mit Pistorius und einem Panzermodell zeigte, und schrieb dazu: „Der ‚erste' Leopard-2 ist in Kiew angekommen.“ Die Ukraine soll nach Angaben von Pistorius von einer Gruppe mehrerer europäischer Länder mehr als 100 Kampfpanzer des älteren Typs Leopard 1A5 erhalten. Bis zum ersten oder zweiten Quartal 2024 sollten mindestens drei Bataillone damit ausgestattet werden, sagte er. Wenig später teilten Wirtschafts- und Verteidigungsministerium mit, dass Deutschland die Ausfuhr von bis zu 178 Kampfpanzern des Typs Leopard 1A5 in die Ukraine genehmigt. „Wie viele Leopard 1A5 Kampfpanzer tatsächlich an die Ukraine geliefert werden, hängt von den erforderlichen Instandsetzungsarbeiten ab“, heißt es in der Erklärung weiter. Zuvor hatten „Der Spiegel“ und Reuters berichtet.
Click to expand...
Translation: Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) has arrived in Kyiv for an unannounced visit.According to a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Pistorius met the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in Kyiv on Tuesday. Resnikov posted a photo on Twitter showing him with Pistorius and a model tank, and wrote: "The 'first' Leopard-2 has arrived in Kyiv." Older Leopard 1A5 Main Battle Tank received. At least three battalions should be equipped with it by the first or second quarter of 2024, he said. A little later, the Ministry of Economics and Defense announced that Germany approved the export of up to 178 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks to Ukraine. "How many Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks will actually be delivered to Ukraine depends on the necessary repair work," the statement said. “Der Spiegel” and Reuters had previously reported.

This is Leopard 1A5.




It is also an obsolete piece of shit not survivable on the modern battlefield and it features the lack of serious armor and the gun which, let's put it this way, is a little bit "outdated". 1A5 is a 1990 version of a 1960 tank and on the battlefield dominated by much more capable Russian tanks, BMPT Terminator and CAS all packed with extremely capable ATGMs, one can only conclude that Germany tries to be "slightly pregnant" under the circumstances when Russia views Germany as an existential threat.


In an interview with the Bild am Sonntag newspaper published on Saturday night, Chancellor Scholz once again placed all of the blame for the conflict on Moscow, arguing that Russia’s “unprovoked aggression” justified the collective West’s intervention with military aid to protect the “European peace order.” “Together with our allies, we are giving battle tanks to Ukraine so that they can defend themselves,” Scholz argued. He added that Berlin “carefully weighed every arms shipment, closely coordinating… first and foremost with America.”
Click to expand...
Then this cretin stated that he still wants to have relations with Russia. Of course, he forgot to ask Russia if she wants to have relations with Germany, but what the hell, he is a typical EU cuck who lives in a pretend world where there are no consequences for child's tantrums. Well, Germany went a little bit further than tantrum. As Russian journalist Marina Khakimova-Getzmaier , who lived in Germany for many years, wrote:



Современный среднестатистический немец – это мерзнущий сторонник ЛГБТ, отъявленный русофоб, запуганный агрессивной пропагандой. «Verboten!» – «запрещено!» – его любимое слово. «А то, что пока не запрещено, – уже не разрешено!» – на полном серьезе написала мне недавно одна моя немецкая приятельница. И предусмотрительно заблокировала мой телефонный номер.
Click to expand...
Translation: The modern average German is a freezing supporter of the LGBT, a notorious Russophobe, intimidated by aggressive propaganda. "Verboten!" - "forbidden!" is his favorite word. “And what is not yet forbidden is no longer allowed!” - in all seriousness, one of my German friends recently wrote to me. And as a precaution she blocked my phone number.
Well, Germany made her choice. Now Russia is making hers. Many do not like it, in a due time they will start crying and begging. Actually, it started already--welcome to the brave new world.
 
S

seraphima

Veteran Member
Many Americans equate speed with strength and ability. Other cultures do not. The Russians are moving at a speed that conserves their troops and makes use of the cold weather and winter conditions in their favor. Americans are bored at the slow pace and want something, anything, to happen. Zelensky keeps trying to whip up enthusiasm in the West to 'do something anything, right now. ":hof:Send us money and arms now, next week, every week!"
 
R

raven

TB Fanatic
DuckandCover said:
Honest question.............. if the Russian equipment is so awesome, how come they haven't been able to overcome the Ukrainians after one year of war? I have no doubt they are numerically superior, but I would have thought that superior numbers along with superior equipment would have resulted in a lopsided, quick victory for them.
Click to expand...
They are constrained by “what is possible short of nuclear war”.
Which also requires that they do not invoke “US Suppression of Air Defenses” which require strikes inside Russian territory by NATO (Which would result in the former).
 
D

DuckandCover

Proud Sheeple
wait-n-see said:
Not a straight out answer, but one consisting of a number of observations. I'll just throw them out as I think about them. Please ignore any major grammar blunder as I'm doing this during a quick break. :)

The standing Russian Army is nothing like any of the other standing armies. Russia's Army primarily consist of conscripts. with short term enlistments. The peace time Russian Army does not have a lot of regulars, like the US. Russia trains differently than the US. US has big training centers, and then send out troops to fill out formations. Russia has the training done by the gaining unit. Russia rotates units in combat helping to keep cohesion, western replaces loses within a unit losing cohesion. Russia builds the Army it needs after the war has started.

Putin, and the Russian leadership really thought they could walk in and take Ukraine. They, and everyone else including the west, did not figure in the training and equipment provided to Ukraine since the fake Minsk accords.

What is said about plans and a battle? The plan last until the battle starts.

The Russians fought almost all of last year badly outnumbered, dealing with the consequences of massive corruption within the peace time Russian military, with primarily conscript troops who fully thought they were getting out in months. They themselves even said they had no idea they were entering Ukraine. Pretty hard for a man to fight hard when he has no idea that he was supposed to be fighting. While a large part of the Ukraine military is just average, there was, and still is, a hard fighting ass kicking SOB element in there that could take on any military in the world today.

Despite having numbers, massive amounts of western equipment, intel support from US/NATO and very good fighting elements, Ukraine still could not force Russia out of at least 20% of the country in a year. Also, the locations where the toughest fighting has been going on at have been undergoing fortification building for years and it is common knowledge of the industrial construction under these locations that would greatly enhance defensive activities.

Not much to say for the artillery, and missile, warfare and the requirement for ammunition that is not already known. In both, the west badly misjudged the way that type of war was to be fought, and Russia shows it had planned for it. Also shows why you don't close down the manufacturing industry that supports your military. Plus, the Russians massively outnumber Ukraine in tubes and ammunition.

However, it is changing for both Ukraine and Russia. The mobilized Russian men from this winter are reservist, not like Ukraine with kids and middle aged and old men press ganged from the streets and pulled from their mothers arms to go fight without any training and be cannon fodder due to the heavy losses suffered through artillery. The Russian troops, who are the same as our reserve troops who volunteered to do the job, have received at least 3 months training with their units to prepare for what is coming.

I'm sure you seen the articles showing how Ukraine is now on its 3rd army of equipment, meaning Ukraine has already lost enough equipment to flesh out the armies of 2 countries.

Notice how Israel still defers to Russia? That is so Russia does not employ it's Air Defense zone in the ME. If the US/NATO are stupid enough to try and take on Russia in Ukraine, then it will be their turn to be as shell shocked as the Russians were when this all started, when the Russians employ their version of Air Defense.

Russia has already won.

The question remaining is how much Ukraine is allowed to keep after Russia takes what it wants, and how much blood and death the DS and Zippy demand of the Ukraine people.

I'm sure I missed some items that, to me, support this conclusion. However, I don't want to make this a book. :)
Click to expand...

Thank you for taking the time to respond. Nice, detailed description.
 
W

Walrus

Veteran Member
jward said:
Many finally threw in the towel and either put those who provide useful info on their "followed" lists so they could see only that, or put those who insist on clogging up threads with their trolling agendas, bickering, or endless self agrandizing recitals of things we learn in grammar school, had covered dozens of times, etc, on ignore. : (

Don't give up, looks like we're approaching the end of them having fought to the last Ukrainian, and this abomination is nearing the point where it will spread and engulf even more o' the globe; thus the news will become ever more, not less, important.
Click to expand...
Sadly, I think you're right. We're getting down to the last Ukrainian and what's left of the country is going to go through all the shock of being subdivided by its greedy neighbors with the innocents (are there actually any?) holding the bag while the criminals decamp to their already-purchased mansions. Bai-Den and his merry band of warmongers will find some kind of bunker and Lindsey Graham is on his own - most likely with a price on his head by all sides.

I ask whether there actually are any innocents strongly tongue in cheek. The people trying to make a living and raise their families with shells flying overhead and mines underneath are left holding the bag. It'll look like Angola after 20 years of civil war - every intersection full of young men missing a leg or a foot begging on the corners after they were used for detecting mines ahead of the troops.

I can only imagine where the warmongers will strike next now that they've finally milked this laundromat-masquerading-as-an-independent-civilization for all it's worth. Big Country Expat totally nailed it in his post which was referenced by the Bitter Centurion (and I've been glad to see him back, too!) in a post inside WRSA:

Past the Limit
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
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You have to admire the bravery of the men that go back into this type of war on their own willingness without being pressed ganged into it. I hope to God that our troops don't get dragged into. This is not the same as fighting insurgents in the sand box, and we don't have the same military we had back then.

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No telling how bad this will get at this rate. :shk:

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623079410382557184
View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1623079410382557184?cxt=HHwWgMDSofqHq4YtAAAA

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The cost to Ukraine keeps increasing, and all needlessly. :shk:

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608157132255281153
View: https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1608157132255281153?cxt=HHwWgoCysYaZqdEsAAAA



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Night offers no protection to anyone as well, and trees are no good for hiding, even for infantry.

ATGM are equally effective against non-armor as they are against armor.

Adding the ability to do the following by drone for both sides really makes this a terrifying war for the people involved (just what I can think of now - has to be more):
  • recon
  • MLRS/artillery/mortar strikes
  • armor and anti-personal mine delivery, and grenade deliver behind the front lines
  • squad support weapons spotting
  • potential spotting for ATGM guidance

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623087174164905986
View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1623087174164905986?cxt=HHwWhIC8-e7LroYtAAAA

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623089199971794945
View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1623089199971794945

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612806808111927297
View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1612806808111927297
 
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jward

jward

passin' thru
Walrus said:
Sadly, I think you're right. We're getting down to the last Ukrainian and what's left of the country is going to go through all the shock of being subdivided by its greedy neighbors with the innocents (are there actually any?) holding the bag while the criminals decamp to their already-purchased mansions. Bai-Den and his merry band of warmongers will find some kind of bunker and Lindsey Graham is on his own - most likely with a price on his head by all sides.

I ask whether there actually are any innocents strongly tongue in cheek. The people trying to make a living and raise their families with shells flying overhead and mines underneath are left holding the bag. It'll look like Angola after 20 years of civil war - every intersection full of young men missing a leg or a foot begging on the corners after they were used for detecting mines ahead of the troops.

I can only imagine where the warmongers will strike next now that they've finally milked this laundromat-masquerading-as-an-independent-civilization for all it's worth. Big Country Expat totally nailed it in his post which was referenced by the Bitter Centurion (and I've been glad to see him back, too!) in a post inside WRSA:

Past the Limit
Click to expand...
Some days I wonder if the best o' the WCS is not a global reset w/ a few survivors to crawl out o' the caves some time in the distant future, and give our species a fresh start and chance to finally choose to do something right.
..Not enough o' a gambler's heart in me to hope that even given such a redo that they, we, would do it any different/better.

Next is apparently the pivot to the indo-pacific, after we finish chewing up Ukraine n surrounding areas real well.
..hence the shiny-balloon-bad schtick we were treated to, no?
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
jward said:
Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |
@ChuckPfarrer
4h

MORE TO COME: Among the latest NATO military aid package will be more M777 ultra light weight howitzers. These highly mobile systems can deliver the deadly accurate M982 Excalibur artillery shell-- a killer of Russian HQs, logistics hubs and ammo dumps.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623108141045932040
View: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1623108141045932040?s=20
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Wagner is going to end up having a nice collection of used triple sevens. Maybe Victor can get them the parts they need.
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee

Note: Ammunition supplies is the key point.​

BIDEN’S BACK TO THE FUTURE MOMENT AS THE MEDIA REVISES ITS UKRAINE NARRATIVE​

7 February 2023 by Larry Johnson 32 Comments
image-21-902x1024.png

Let us take Biden at his word (though one can reasonably argue he does not comprehend what he is saying most of the time) — World War III has started. We have not seen a comparable back flip like Biden’s reversal on sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine since Nadia Comaneci wowed the World with her performance at the 1976 Olympics.
Will Biden double down and answer President Zelenskyy’s impassioned calls for American-made F-16s? If past performance predicts the future then the answer is yes. But sending F-16s (or any other combat aircraft) to Ukraine is a real problem. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to Professor Justin Bronk, Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems:
First and foremost is the problem of Russia’s dense and highly lethal network of ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. The skies over the frontlines in Ukraine are covered by multiple layers of air defence threats from large, long-range systems like the infamous SA-21 ‘Triumf’ (known in Russia as the S-400) to more numerous and mobile medium-range SAMs like the SA-17 ‘Buk’ and short-range SA-15 ‘Tor’.
The US has supplied significant numbers of the AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) to the UkrAF. . . . but HARM has not come close to removing the threat from Russia’s air defences against Ukrainian jets.
This matters because any western jet that might plausibly be supplied to Ukraine will face the same major threat from Russian SAMs. Even the full might of Nato air power would require a serious campaign at scale to degrade Russia’s integrated air defence systems, and would take losses doing so. . . .
However, in the largely flat terrain of eastern and southern Ukraine there is a limit to how effective terrain masking can be, and in any case flying at very low altitudes would seriously reduce the effectiveness of combat aircraft in many key missions.
www.spectator.co.uk

Why the West is reluctant to give Ukraine F-16s

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine almost a year ago, the questions of if, when and how to supply the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF) with western fighter aircraft have been a matter of fierce debate. President Zelenskyy has made repeated and impassioned calls for American-made F-16s in particular...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk
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In other words, Ukraine needs the equivalent of the U.S. Air Force if it hopes to weaken Russia on the battlefield. That is not going to happen. If Ukraine succeeds in getting the planes and flying them in combat the most likely outcome is an astronomical cost in terms of air frames and pilots.
The Debbie Downer message is not confined to the Spectator. The Financial Times also is now raising a warning voice about problems ahead:
Financial Times announced the crisis of ammunition supplies in Europe due to the conflict in Ukraine
According to the newspaper, the record demand for ammunition creates a huge burden on the industrial capacities of Europe
The conflict in Ukraine has provoked a significant crisis in the supply of ammunition in Europe, as arms manufacturers seek both to replenish the national stocks of states and to ensure supplies to Kiev.
According to FT, the record demand for ammunition creates a huge burden on the industrial capacities of Europe. According to experts, Ukraine requires more than 5 thousand shells per day, the same amount as a small European state orders annually. Additional pressure on supply chains is created due to a lack of production capacity and a shortage of critical raw materials. In addition, the supply chains disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic have not yet been fully restored.
Morten Brandtseg, CEO of the Norwegian-Finnish defense company Nammo, told the publication that the demand for some components has grown so much that the delivery time to customers has increased from several months to several years. In an attempt to meet the demand and reduce the production and delivery time of ammunition, many companies have increased the number of production shifts and are hiring more employees. German Rheinmetall, in particular, plans to build a new plant in Hungary and restart enterprises that were previously decommissioned.
t.me

Sonar21

Financial Times announced the crisis of ammunition supplies in Europe due to the conflict in Ukraine According to the newspaper, the record demand for ammunition creates a huge burden on the industrial capacities of Europe The conflict in Ukraine has provoked a significant crisis in the supply...
t.me t.me
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Let me translate. No matter what the United States and the rest of the NATO countries do to boost production of weapons and ammunition, help is years away.
One more prominent media outlet changes its tune about Ukraine. Moon of Alabama provides an excellent summary of a New York Times reversal in its view of the war in Ukraine, Outnumbered and Worn Out, Ukrainians in East Brace for Russian Assault. You can read it at his site.
What happens if Germany manages to send some Leopard tanks to Ukraine? Knowledgeable critics note that training competent tank crews will require several months before they are ready to drive on to the battlefield. Austrian Colonel Reisner suggested one novel solution to circumvent that problem:
View: https://youtu.be/ZRCgJEhpCis


Biden’s Back to the Future Moment as the Media Revises its Ukraine narrative

sonar21.com sonar21.com
 
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