ECON Report food and grocery price increases/shortages here: 2021 Edition

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marsh

On TB every waking moment
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Food Prices Are Rising Aggressively, And Even Corporate Media Admits It's Only Going To Get Worse

WEDNESDAY, APR 14, 2021 - 05:40 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Food prices are outrageous now, but they are only going to go higher. Earlier today, I came across an NBC News article entitled “Get ready for higher grocery bills for the rest of the year”. I thought that it was strange that a piece put out by the corporate media sounded like it could have come straight from my website, because I have been sounding the alarm about higher food prices for quite some time. Surprisingly, the NBC News article was generally right on point. Thanks to a variety of factors, food prices have been rising aggressively, and that is going to continue for the foreseeable future.



According to the Labor Department, consumer prices overall were up 0.6 percent from February to March…
Consumer prices shot higher in March, given a boost by a strong economic recovery and year-over-year comparisons to a time when the Covid-19 pandemic was about to throttle the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6% from the same period a year ago. The year-over-year gain is the highest since August 2018 and was well above the 1.7% recorded in February.
0.6 percent may not sound like that much, but if you multiply that figure by 12 months you get an annualized rate of 7.2 percent.

Of course the government has changed the way the inflation rate is calculated dozens of times over the years, and at this point everyone knows that the official number greatly understates what is really happening in the economy.

In fact, John Williams of shadowstats.com says that if the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would be over 10 percent right now.

In other words, we have now reached Jimmy Carter levels of inflation.

One of the places where we are really starting to see inflation show up is in food prices. Here are just a few examples
Before the pandemic began, the national average for a pound of bacon in January 2020 was $4.72. By last month, that price had soared to $5.11, according to exclusive supermarket point of sale data from NielsenIQ. Ground beef is up $5.26 a pound from $5.02. Bread is up $2.66 a loaf from $2.44.
So why are food prices increasing like this?

Yahoo News recently posted an article that listed four explanations
1. Plummeting food production
2. Transportation tumult
3. More eating at home
4. Wild weather
Moving forward, the pandemic will continue to suppress global food production, commodity prices will likely keep climbing, and increasingly wild weather patterns will certainly cause even more damage to crops.

All of these factors are making it more expensive for food companies to operate, and as NBC News has noted, food companies are starting to pass along those costs to consumers…
Issues like higher gas prices, increasing transport costs that get passed on to consumers, especially for items like bread, are only going up as driving increases faster than oil production. So grocery prices are likely to remain on the higher end of estimates for at least the rest of the year, Olvera said. Producers may eventually increase their output in order to capture the heightened demand, but that won’t happen until toward the end of this year, Olvera said.
Of course it isn’t just the United States that is wrestling with these problems.

Food prices are actually rising far more rapidly in much of the rest of the world, and we recently learned that global food prices spiked for a tenth month in a row during March…
Global food commodity prices rose in March, marking their tenth consecutive monthly increase, with quotations for vegetable oils and dairy products leading the rise, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported today.
Infographic: Global Food Prices on the Uptick | Statista
You will find more infographics at Statista
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of commonly-traded food commodities, averaged 118.5 points in March, 2.1 percent higher than in February and reaching its highest level since June 2014.
Those at the very bottom of the economic food chain are being hurt the most by rising food prices.

We have already started to see food riots in some areas, and one relief organization is warning that millions of people in East Africa are now on the verge of starvation
Over 7 million people across six East African countries are at the cusp of starvation as communities have faced existential threats from violence, flooding, the pandemic and locust infestation, the evangelical humanitarian organization World Vision has warned.
Needless to say, all of these developments are perfectly consistent with the warnings that I issued in Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America.

Even during the best of years, we really struggle to feed the entire planet, and 2021 is definitely not going to be a great year for global food production.
The good news is that there is still plenty of food in our supermarkets right now, and that means that we have a window of opportunity.

I know that food prices may seem ridiculous, but they aren’t ever going to be any lower than they are right now.

I would encourage you to use this window of opportunity to stock up at these relatively low prices, because the price increases are only going to become even more painful as our leaders continue to flood the system with more cash.
 

Cardinal

Chickministrator
_______________
Fried up some ground beef from Hyvee into hamburgers. Got tummy aches and frequent runs to the throne.

Never going to buy their house brand of beef again.
Most grocery stores mix ground beef from several different sources. Always cook thoroughly.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Most grocery stores mix ground beef from several different sources. Always cook thoroughly.

I always cook hamburgers well done. This meat smelled a bit.

My brother said this particular store does not cut up their meat there but gets it from a central location.

Best I ever had was from Jewel their "pub burgers"
 

Cardinal

Chickministrator
_______________
I always cook hamburgers well done. This meat smelled a bit.

My brother said this particular store does not cut up their meat there but gets it from a central location.

Best I ever had was from Jewel their "pub burgers"
I'm addicted to the waygu beef patties at WM. Very tender ground beef.
 

Digger

Veteran Member
I did find one case of 12 Ozarka bottled water. So we have a little wiggle room. Prices are noticeably higher. Name brand French cut green beans were on sale at 4 for $5. A 6 oz can of Hunts tomato paste was $1. Everything was up. My toothpaste was almost $7 a tube. I was at our local Harps which is a bit higher on some things, but only 10 miles from home. I will look for toothpaste when we go to the next town. I really feel for people with less income.
 

moldy

Veteran Member
Was in a larger town teaching today, so I hit Safeway. King Soopers (Kroger) sale prices were less than impressive, so I didn't stop there. Sales start on Wednesday, so this is the first day of the sale. I was shopping about 6 pm, and some sale items were completely gone (pasta sauce, mustard, lunch meat). Some prices are better - the PF Changs frozen entrees that I like were almost $2 cheaper than the last sale I bought them at. Prices on lunch meat and cookies were up, down on condiments. One thing I noticed was that deodorant has tripled in price!! For a decent non-aluminum one, it is $6/stick!!
 

coalcracker

Veteran Member
One of my canines eats Hills prescription dog food for urinary issues. It has always been brutally expensive ($3 a can - ouch), but for the last three weeks the vet has not been able to get any supply of it delivered. First time ever.

Fortunately, I keep many cases ahead, but it is yet another supply chain breakdown. Living in a third world dystopia.
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
I did find one case of 12 Ozarka bottled water. So we have a little wiggle room. Prices are noticeably higher. Name brand French cut green beans were on sale at 4 for $5. A 6 oz can of Hunts tomato paste was $1. Everything was up. My toothpaste was almost $7 a tube. I was at our local Harps which is a bit higher on some things, but only 10 miles from home. I will look for toothpaste when we go to the next town. I really feel for people with less income.
They are seldom out of "my brand", it's called "cheapest available" including Fred Meyers $1 bags of mixed fresh fruits and veggies, day old bread and bakery rack, slightly dented cans, or recently expired canned food, half priced or marked down meats etc.
I seldom shop organic, (unless they stick organic stuff in the $1 bags in the produce section ) but I'm still alive at 76.
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
They are seldom out of "my brand", it's called "cheapest available" including Fred Meyers $1 bags of mixed fresh fruits and veggies, day old bread and bakery rack, slightly dented cans, or recently expired canned food, half priced or marked down meats etc.
I seldom shop organic, (unless they stick organic stuff in the $1 bags in the produce section ) but I'm still alive at 76.

In the big city, here, we have a bakery that sells only "day old" breads and snack cakes and goodies. I haven't shopped there often, but my sister went all the time. She had a freezer, and bought bags of day old things to put in it at very, very cheap prices. The place is always crowded out. That's the main reason I don't stop in. I hate crowds.
 

school marm

Veteran Member
Just returned from my weekly shopping trip at Smith's. I read somewhere that the only prices coming down were in dairy. Last week whole milk dropped 30 cents to $2.69 per gallon. Today, their 2-lb blocks of cheese were on sale for $5. I haven't seen them that cheap in a couple of years, I think. They also had some wide-mouth canning lids--first time I've seen those in the store in months.
 

Tex88

Veteran Member
The watch thread made me stop at a pawn shop close by to see if the impoverished masses so hard stricken by COVID had to dump their Rolexes and brand new Series X XBoxes and Walther PPK’s ... dayumn that store was plumb cleaned out!
A box full of ten dollar plastic watches, a Surface RT tablet, ca 2012, three old laptops, two Taurus G2’s and a couple of Derringer style pistols.
I guess everyone has cashed their stimmy checks.
 
Sam's has 12lbs of dry pintos for 6.36 if ya need to stock up. They have dried black beans too on the cheap.
 

FireDance

TB Fanatic
Most grocery stores mix ground beef from several different sources. Always cook thoroughly.
True. But I have also seen stores repackage it after the sale date. You don’t bring home ground beef one day and have it go bad overnight. Literally. That’s not real world. The real world is they are repackaging the stuff and selling it to the unsuspecting.

Buy from your local (or not so local) farmer to avoid this scam. Jerks.
 

FireDance

TB Fanatic
One of my canines eats Hills prescription dog food for urinary issues. It has always been brutally expensive ($3 a can - ouch), but for the last three weeks the vet has not been able to get any supply of it delivered. First time ever.

Fortunately, I keep many cases ahead, but it is yet another supply chain breakdown. Living in a third world dystopia.
We had that with the local vet also. Chewy is easy and has it in stock. At least for now.
 

nomifyle

TB Fanatic
Went to three stores today, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Walmart. I noticed holes at all three. The freezer section was half empty, food spread out to make it look full. This is Thursday, no telling what it will look like after Friday shoppers do their thing. There was one package of bacon bits and pieces, where the other day there was none. It was very fatty so I passed. I did forget to look in the canning section, so no clue if they had lids. I don't really need them. I did get two cans each of a couple of vegetables that had the solid lid at DG.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Made a quick stop at Walmart this morning and happened through the housewares department. They had Kerr wide mouth lids, so I bought a half dozen boxes. They also had a good supply of Kerr regular pint jars on the shelves....didn't have any of the off brand stuff.

Aldi looked good for a Friday morning. This particular store always has a stellar produce section, dairy looked great..I try to buy their organic whole milk because it lasts forever in the fridge. Also the Irish butter was well stocked. Even got a few jars of their red pickled cabbage and apples, which they have not had on the shelves since last fall.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Made a quick stop at Walmart this morning and happened through the housewares department. They had Kerr wide mouth lids, so I bought a half dozen boxes. They also had a good supply of Kerr regular pint jars on the shelves....didn't have any of the off brand stuff.

Aldi looked good for a Friday morning. This particular store always has a stellar produce section, dairy looked great..I try to buy their organic whole milk because it lasts forever in the fridge. Also the Irish butter was well stocked. Even got a few jars of their red pickled cabbage and apples, which they have not had on the shelves since last fall.

It's German week at Aldi, mine had them as well.
 

annieosage

Inactive
Yesterday I did a curbside pickup and they had most of what I needed. Some things they originally said were not available actually were so she added them back on my order but forgot to charge me. This included a $20 (sale price) pack of steaks and 1/2 pound of honey ham from the deli. I didn't say anything because when I have in the past they've always said don't worry about it.

I only went to the store this morning for some fresh veggies. They had everything I needed- zucchini, tomatoes, onions, bell peppers, cilantro, jalapenos. They all looked decent but I did have to dig for jalapenos that looked fresh and not that wrinkly skin look. I'll be grilling chicken and steak skewers this weekend with bell peppers, onions, and zucchini. I just made a fresh batch of pico de gallo and realized I have no chips. I literally eat this stuff on everything anyway but chips would have been good. What I did notice is the canned goods aisle. Most things appeared full but when you looked closer they were all pushed to the front and only had one or two rows. Cashier did mention I was there early and was it to beat the crowd and I said yes. She said it has been ridiculously busy lately.

Oh yeah and fresh bananas and strawberries with sugar free whipped cream for dessert!! Looks to be a good weekend!!
 
My local overpriced, small town grocery store had a sleeve of Ball reg mouth lids, we got 10 boxes.

They haven't had them for at least a year. They're also getting more jars in now.
 

Cardinal

Chickministrator
_______________
I went to Walmart again this am for some misc stuff. They had a few boxes of the cat food I needed so I grabbed them.
Also they were well stocked in the freezer section. This is not my #1 store in town, this store is 20 minutes away, but in a shopping hub which includes a Kroger, a Publix and many other stores along with an Outlet Mall.

One thing I did notice: I believe we have gotten a 'delivery' of some of our newest-soon-to-be-citizens from Mehico. These two young men (or, "children" as the msm calls them) were rough looking and wearing backpacks, walking around what is normally a lily white Kroger. They stood out like a sore thumb.
 

nomifyle

TB Fanatic
This is not food but its for food storage. Last year I bought 5 gallon, 3 1/2 gallon and 2 gallon buckets from walmart.com they came in packages of 10. I can't remember the price but I know it was below $50 for 10 buckets and 10 lids, priced for 10 each but not together, as in buckets and lids. I just looked up the same buckets in the 5 gallon size for $89 and could not find the lids. There were not other sizes available. Being the good prepper that I am I bought at least (sometimes more) of each size with lids to match. At the rate they were in and out of stock last year I figured I'd better stock up. I also bought a supply of totes with locking lids that are stackable from walmart in the store. Now these are nowhere to be found.

As I said in a prep thread, last year I bought some heavy duty shelves for 19 something and now they are $49, I felt lucky to find them at all. Fortunately, I only need one set. If I need more shelving DH said he will build them fore me. These shelves will help my storage problem but unfortunately it will no solve the problem completely.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

Hermantribe

Veteran Member

Ketchup Can't Catch Up As Nationwide Shortage Fries Restaurants, Fast-Food Chains

WEDNESDAY, APR 07, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Ketchup packets are the next COVID-19-related nationwide shortage.

America's most popular condiment, ketchup packets, are in short supply at restaurants across the country, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The shortage materialized over the last year as public health orders forced restaurants to close or limit indoor dining, which resulted in a boom in takeout orders. There were also health and safety guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that advised restaurants to "avoid using or sharing items that are reusable such as menus, condiments and any other food containers" to prevent the spread of the virus. More specifically, the CDC recommended eateries to use "single-serving condiments," such as individual packets.

Numerous regulations and or advisories sent ketchup packet prices surging, up more than 13% since the beginning of the pandemic. Heinz, the largest producer who controls 70% of the US condiment market, was overwhelmed by demand, and this is how the shortage was sparked.


Heinz told the Journal it would shortly increase production by a quarter, for a total of 12 billion packets per year. America's most widely used ketchup brand confirmed it still couldn't keep up with orders for its ketchup packets.

The shortage forced larger restaurant chains to find alternatives, the report said. From mom-and-pop eateries to large chains, restaurants nationwide have been scrambling to find alternative brands to fill the void.

Large chains like Texas Roadhouse and Long John Silvers have had to purchase other brands of ketchup.

Texas Roadhouse used 55 million ounces of ketchup last year and has resorted to sourcing ketchup at Costco and other wholesalers.

Kraft Heinz said when restaurant demand collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic, it saw a monumental shift to takeout and delivery and pivoted production lines to meet those needs. Still, demand is greater than supply.

Other recent shortages include flour, aluminum cans as people consume beverages at home, plastics, lumber, steel, semiconductors, sofas, fitness equipment, hot tubs, electronics, and cookware.

Goldman Sachs told clients last month that supply chain woes might not be resolved until 2022.
THIS is why I buy Costco size packages of ketchup, syrup, parmesan, etc.
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Waist deep in ketchup here, what's the issue in other places?
Last Saturday on a local morning radio show we have here they interviewed the head honcho for Red Gold Ketchup (Indiana brand made here)
He specifically addressed this “shortage” we keep hearing about but according to him there’s no such thing.
Basically, he implied it was all a marketing ploy!
I can’t remember word for word because it was a long interview then went into how They’re doing just great with supplies of ketchup coming out their ears in all major sectors of food services.
You’d have to listen to the show but it was MOST intriguing considering what the major publications are saying. As well as what is posted in this thread for sure.

He wasn’t leaning too far into “conspiracy theory territory” but he got close, in my opinion.
 

Roadgeek

Contributing Member
Last Saturday on a local morning radio show we have here they interviewed the head honcho for Red Gold Ketchup (Indiana brand made here)
He specifically addressed this “shortage” we keep hearing about but according to him there’s no such thing.
Basically, he implied it was all a marketing ploy!
I can’t remember word for word because it was a long interview then went into how They’re doing just great with supplies of ketchup coming out their ears in all major sectors of food services.
You’d have to listen to the show but it was MOST intriguing considering what the major publications are saying. As well as what is posted in this thread for sure.

He wasn’t leaning too far into “conspiracy theory territory” but he got close, in my opinion.
Well, I'd expect the head of a large ketchup company to know what he was talking about, and Red Gold is very large. Further, my wife found a new larger size of the Heinz No Sugar added ketchup at Wally, and she snapped up four of them. If there was a shortage, why is Heinz producing a larger size of a niche ketchup? I suspect there is/was a shortage of the little packets of ketchup, but it never extended beyond that.

Just as Maryanne or Ginger is a personal preference, so too is Ketchup or Catsup. (Me: Maryanne, ketchup)
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

'Sticker Shock" At The Grocery Store Imminent As Ag Futures Surge Most In 8 Years

MONDAY, APR 26, 2021 - 03:20 PM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index surged the most in nearly nine years, driven by a rally in crop futures.



Expect Grocery Shock
With futures surging, Grocery Price Shock Is Coming to a Store Near You.
With global food prices already at the highest since mid-2014, this latest jump is being closely watched because staple crops are a ubiquitous influence on grocery shelves — from bread and pizza dough to meat and even soda.
“The relentless rise in prices acts as a misery multiplier, driving millions deeper into hunger and desperation,” Chris Nikoi, the World Food Programme’s regional director for West Africa, said earlier this month.
It’s “pushing a basic meal beyond the reach of millions of poor families who were already struggling to get by.”
And commodities aren’t the only component in driving up the price of food. Higher freight costs and other supply-chain headaches as well as packaging can all add up. Food and beverage giants are already signaling they’re watching margins. Coca-Cola Co. has flagged higher costs in plastic and aluminum, as well as coffee and high-fructose corn syrup, the key ingredient in soda. Nestle SA, the world’s biggest food company, warned it won’t be able to hedge all of its commodity costs and it’s raising prices where appropriate.
Corn Futures

Wheat Futures

Soybean Futures

Live Cattle

Lean Hogs

Live cattle is at a 1-year high. The rest are at or near 7 to 8 year highs.

The Fed foolishly cheers this. Consumers sure don't.
 

Marseydoats

Veteran Member
I haven't been able to find any of my cat's canned food in 3 weeks at several different stores, so I broke down and ordered 3 mos. worth from Chewy. They were out of several of the varieties I wanted as well.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
FL: Went to Winn-Dixie today, wasn't crowded. They had a lot of buy one/get ones, so I picked up several. Peter Pan, Keebler Crackers, Ronzoni pasta, Vlasic pickles, many other things that I didn't get. Lots of very cheap pork stuff ($1.79/lb) which I didn't buy any. Pork is hard for my son. But they had ground chuck for $2.99/lb, which is good for here, so I bought a couple pounds for hamburgers and chili. Chicken breasts on sale, ham on sale, lunch meats on sale, sausages on sale, I didn't get a ton of meat though since I have enough for now. Everything looks stocked full in this store. They even had some nice Colgate tooth brushes on sale, so we got a couple of those, seeing as our electric toothbrushes are getting old. I just tried one with my new Crest 3-D Whitening toothpaste, and it was a lovely experience, LOL.

But even with all the sales, it does seem I spend more every time I go.

:)
 
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