GOV/MIL Minsk: something happening there

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northern watch

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Warning: Russian Hybrid Intervention into Belarus is Likely Imminent

August 15, 2020, 12:00 pm EDT
By George Barros and Mason Clark
iswresearch.org

A Russian hybrid intervention into Belarus to support Belarussian president Lukashenko is likely imminent. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a phone call on August 15 to discuss the situation in Belarus. Putin thanked Lukashenko for returning 32 detained Wagner personnel on August 14. The Kremlin’s readout of the call stated “all problems that have arisen will be resolved soon” and characterized the protests as “destructive forces” trying to harm the Union State.[1] A Kremlin intervention would likely consist of Russian forces in unmarked uniforms supporting crackdowns on protesters. The Kremlin has not previously characterized the protests in Belarus as destructive. Kremlin-linked media outlets reported neutrally and slightly sympathetically towards protests in Belarus as of August 14.

The Union State is a supranational organization between Belarus and Russia. The Kremlin has been working to strengthen the Union State as a way to regain dominance over Belarus and integrate the Belarussian and Russian militaries. Success in that endeavor could allow Russian military forces to be stationed directly on the Polish border and in vital locations threatening NATO’s ability to defend the Baltic States.

Prior to his call with Putin Lukashenko held a meeting in Minsk on August 15 with Belarusian officials to discuss the situation in the country during which Lukashenko said the protests are “aggression against Belarus” and that Belarus “needs to reach out to Putin.”[2] This open request for help from Russia marked a sharp change in the tone Lukashenko has been using, as he has previously been accusing Russia of interfering in the elections and in Belarussian internal affairs. He has sought to gain leverage on Putin and refusing to cooperate with Putin’s efforts to strengthen the Union State. Lukashenko rationalized the need to engage the Kremlin at this time by characterizing the protests as foreign aggression against Belarus. Lukashenko claimed the threat faces not only Belarus, but the whole Union State, including Russia. Lukashenko likely used this meeting to acknowledge Putin’s objective to prevent a pro-democratic revolution in Belarus similar to the 2014 Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine.

The Belarusian Forestry Ministry placed bans on visiting 53 forests in Belarus, including almost all of the Gomel region’s forested areas. Gomel borders Russia's Bryansk region. This action may be preparation for the Kremlin to insert irregular forces into Belarus' south.[3] Russia’s Western Military District Commander Alexander Zhuravlev examined Russia’s fleet of military vehicles in the Bryansk region on August 14.[4] Bryansk is 110 kilometers from the Russian-Belarusian border.


Belarusian authorities have partially blocked Belarusians’ access to the internet since Lukashenko’s highly falsified presidential election on August 9.[5]

Video emerged allegedly showing Russian forces near Belarus IVO the highway from Smolensk to Vitebsk. Video footage surfaced on August 13 depicting a column of Russian hardware parked on the alleged shoulder of the highway from Smolensk, Russia to Vitebsk, Belarus.[6] The column included seven transport trucks and five Katyusha rocket launcher trucks. It is unclear whether the footage is actually from Smolensk or August 2020; the footage could be from a different location and/or from a previous date.

Support for Lukashenko in the Belarusian military continues to weaken. Men in Belarusian airborne infantry uniforms (VDV) are participating in ongoing protests in Minsk as of August 15.[7] It is unclear whether these persons are actual VDV personnel, veterans or active servicemembers. The Kremlin likely seeks to avoid having to intervene in Belarus but will do so if Lukashenko appears likely to lose control over his security services.


These indicators reinforce the ISW’s initial warning on a Kremlin irregular intervention in Belarus.[8] ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.


​

[1] http://kremlin(.)ru/events/president/news/63893

[2] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-ne-nado-ubajukivat-mirnymi-aktsijami-my-vidim-chto-v-glubine-proishodit-402937-2020/;
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294557687859077120
View: https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1294557687859077120


[3] The Belorusian Forestry Ministry conducted a similar ban on visiting forests in June 2020 likely unrelated to a Russian intervention into Belarus.

https://www.belta(.)by/society/view/zaprety-i-ogranichenija-na-poseschenie-lesov-dejstvujut-v-53-rajonah-belarusi-402940-2020

[4] https://gorod-tv(.)com/news/obschestvo/92120

[5] https://netblocks.org/reports/internet-disruption-hits-belarus-on-electi...

[6] https://www.dialog(.)ua/world/213228_1597348991

[7]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294585189742583809
View: https://twitter.com/eye_ii_eye/status/1294585189742583809


[8] http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russia-may-send-little-green....


Warning: Russian Hybrid Intervention into Belarus is Likely Imminent

August 15, 2020, 12:00 pm EDT By George Barros and Mason Clark A Russian hybrid intervention into Belarus to support Belarussian...
www.iswresearch.org www.iswresearch.org
 
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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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Belarus President Moves Air Assault Brigade To Western Border In Response To NATO Drills; Says Russia Will Provide Security Assistance
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/15/2020 - 20:53
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Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said that an air assault brigade would move to Belarus’ Western border in response to NATO exercises in neighboring nations, even as the country reels from massive anti-government protests which Lukashenko has dubbed a "color revolution" orchestrated by foreign agents. Lukashenko also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin promised him to help securing safety of Belarus if needed, state news agency Belta reported.

Speaking on state TV, Lukashenko said he was “worried” that NATO was carrying out military exercises in Poland and Lithuania, which he views as an arms build-up on Belarus’ borders.

"I am more worried about the situation that is unfolding on the territory of our neighboring states - Poland and Lithuania. As you know, military exercises of NATO troops are taking place there. That would have been fine, but there is an escalation and a build-up of the armed component in these territories. Naturally we cannot turn a blind eye to it, we cannot observe this calmly. And when early in the morning I was listening to the report of the Chief of the General Staff, I noticed: our military is also worried about this problem," Lukashenko said.

In response to the drills, the Belarus president said that he has ordered the transfer of an airborne brigade from Vitebsk to Grodno.

Lukashenko also slammed foreign countries which he said were attempting to act as "mediators" in the country's problems, urging them to "put their own business in order" before dictating to Minsk.

Earlier, Lukashenko said Russian President Vladimir Putin had promised to help him secure his country’s safety, if necessary RT and Tass reported. According to Lukashenko, the agreement was reached during a telephone conversation with his Putin on Saturday. "We have agreed - at our first request, comprehensive assistance will be provided to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus,"he said.

"When it comes to the military component, we have an agreement with the Russian Federation within the framework of the Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization,"Lukashenko explained. "These moments fit this agreement. Therefore, today I had a long, detailed conversation with the Russian president about the situation. I must say, I was even somewhat surprised - [Putin] is absolutely aware of what is happening,"he added.

Lukashenko’s re-election for a sixth term last weekend was marred by massive protests, as thousands took to the streets over their belief that the election had been rigged. The Belarusian presidential elections were held on August 9, and according to the final official results provided by the Belarusian Central Election Commission on August 14, incumbent Lukashenko received 80.1% of the vote. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was considered his main opponent, came in second with 10.12%.

After exit poll results were announced on the evening of August 9, protests erupted in downtown Minsk and other regions of the country, leading to clashes between protesters and law enforcement. The protests continued over the following days.

The European Union has said it does not believe the election results were legitimate and is readying itself to impose sanctions on Minsk in response to the bloody police crackdown, which has already seen two protesters killed.


Workers at major state-run industrial plants were also hit with demonstrations and strikes during the week. In response, Lukashenko said workers at state-run companies should be fired if they go on strike, suggesting they were colluding with foreign actors, according to BelTa.

Meanwhile, on a visit to Poland on Saturday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington was monitoring the situation in Belarus.
 
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northern watch

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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Warning: Belarusian President Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with the Kremlin for Russian Intervention

August 15, 2020, 4:00 pm EDT
www.iswresearch.org
By Mason Clark

Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko and the Kremlin have reached an agreement for a potential Russian intervention to crush protests. Lukashenko stated Russia is prepared to intervene in Belarus in a meeting with the Belarusian general staff the evening of August 15: Lukashenko stated "we have an agreement with the Russian Federation in the framework of the Union State and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). These moments are fitting to this pact. We agreed that at the first request there will be comprehensive assistance provided to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus.”[1] Belarusian state media edited its reporting on Lukashenko’s statement at 9:45pm local time to insert the comment that Lukashenko would only invite Russian forces “in the event of external military threats.”[2] Lukashenko will likely increasingly frame the protests as foreign-backed to legitimize calling for a Russian intervention and in a continuing effort to separate protest leaders from the mass of the Belarusian people.

Russian forces may be massing on the border. An unverified report indicates Russian forces may be concentrating in the Russian cities of Nevel and Klincy to move towards Vitebsk and Gomel, respectively.[3] This report tracks with bans on entrance imposed by the Belorussian forest ministry, which included bans on forests in the Gomel region, and near Mogilev, a natural location for Russian forces approaching from the north and south to link up.

Russia is already taking actions to disrupt protests. Russia issued an arrest warrant for Stepan Putilo, founder of the NEXTA Telegram channel, on 15 AUG.[4] The charges Putilo would be held under are unknown. Belarus put out a warrant for Putilo’s arrest on 14 AUG. The NEXTA channel recently re-shared a video by Euroradio showing the death of Aleyksander Taraykouski, who was shot by the police on 10 AUG. This video was initially shared as early as 12 AUG. NEXTA, which operates out of Poland, has been instrumental in organizing protests.

Lukashenko faces increasing crises of loyalty among security/media and will likely increasingly rely on Russian or other foreign security personnel. Lukashenko is attempting to contain a growing crisis of loyalty among the military and security services. Lukashenko held a meeting with the General Staff of the Armed Forces in which he warned that protestors were threatening the families of service members.[5] He warned protesters “our military has enough resources in order to protect themselves, their families and ensure security in the state.” There is currently no documented protestor violence against the families of service members.

Lukashenko rejected calls from Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia to mediate a national council of representatives. Lukashenko will likely frame any international offers of mediation as “foreign interference” and reject any international solution.

Lukashenko will likely be increasingly forced to rely on non-Belarusian security forces as defections mount. Serbian Special Operators may be present in Brest.[6] An open source analyst posted a photo collage that may show special operating units with Serbian markings in Brest on 15 AUG, as well as in Minsk on 09 AUG during the election. The Serbian 72nd Special Operations Brigade has been in the “Sniper Border” competition in Belarus, as part of the Russian Army Games, since 27 JUL. The pictured units may be part of that brigade.

Lukashenko is attempting to limit a planned strike by the Belarussian National TV and Radio service on Monday August 17. Chairperson of upper house of the Belarusian Parliament Natalya Kochanova and Presidential Press Secretary Natalya Eismont met with protestors at the Belarussian National TV and Radio company in Minsk on August 15 at 1800 Belarus time.[7] Employees asked Kochanova why the state television does not tell “the truth” and Kochanova allegedly responded that "your competitors also cover everything one-sidedly." Several employees walked out of the meeting to join protesters. Between hundreds and one thousand protestors from outside the company gathered outside the television building to demand the truth from Kochanova, who left the meeting after 30 minutes ostensibly due to family reasons; the meeting continued without her. Shortly thereafter, OMON special police forces entered the building.[8]

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

The following Russian unit locations are derived from a previous ISW-CTP report, Russia’s Military Posture: Ground Forces Order of Battle. They are included only for reference. ISW has no specific evidence at this time that the units identified here are involved in the unconfirmed reported troop movements or that any Russian conventional forces have crossed the border into Belarus.





[1] https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/08/15/lukashenko-pri-pervom-zhe-nashem-zaprose-o-voennoy-pomoschi-budet-okazana-vsestoronnyaya-pomosch-rossii; https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-dogovorilsja-s-putinym-rossija-pri-pervom-zaprose-okazhet-pomosch-po-obespecheniju-402964-2020/.
[2] https://www.belta((.))by/president/view/lukashenko-dogovorilsja-s-putinym-rossija-pri-pervom-zaprose-okazhet-pomosch-po-obespecheniju-402964-2020/
[3]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294673282558562305
View: https://twitter.com/A_Sannikov/status/1294673282558562305

[4]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294657077126758400
View: https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1294657077126758400;
https://www(.)pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2020/08/15/7263054/; https://lenta(.)ru/news/2020/08/15/nexta/
[5] https://rus(.)lsm.lv/statja/novosti/mir/litva-latvija-i-polsha-predlozhili-stat-posrednikami-mezhdu-belorusami-i-lukashenko.a370286/; https://meduza(.i)o/news/2020/08/15/nashi-voennye-imeyut-dostatochno-resursov-dlya-togo-chtoby-zaschitit-sebya-i-obespechit-bezopasnost-v-gosudarstve-lukashenko-na-soveschanii-v-genshtabe; https://www(.)belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-ob-ugrozah-v-adres-semej-voennosluzhaschih-ne-nado-igrat-s-ognem-402951-2020/
[6]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294635081752031232
View: https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1294635081752031232
, DNGTS: https://www(.)alo.rs/vesti/politika/vojska-srbije-snajperska-jedinica-specijalne-operacije-aleksandar-vulin/329519/vest
[7] https://news.tut(.)by/society/696819.html, https://vz(.)ru/news/2020/8/15/1055247.html, https://tjournal(.)ru/news/199181-belorusy-prinesli-starye-televizory-k-redakciyam-goskanalov-i-ustroili-masshtabnuyu-akciyu-u-ofisa-glavnogo-veshchatelya
[8]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1294682496718839808
View: https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1294682496718839808


www.iswresearch.org

Warning: Belarusian President Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with the Kremlin for Russian Intervention

August 15, 2020, 4:00 pm EDT By Mason Clark Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko and the Kremlin have reached an agreement for a pote...
www.iswresearch.org www.iswresearch.org
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
This is playing out just as I figured it would; think I posted the eventual scenario on page 1.

Russia wants Belarussia secured for the buffer they provide to NATO and having a state they can control like a puppet.

Closing the forests is an interesting development; one can move a lot of units through a forest devoid of prying eyes.

I wonder what might be the broader implications might be regarding the Russia offer of "help". Wonder if Putin might want to take Belarus eventually and use it as a jumping point against NATO.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
AlfaMan said:
This is playing out just as I figured it would; think I posted the eventual scenario on page 1.

Russia wants Belarussia secured for the buffer they provide to NATO and having a state they can control like a puppet.

Closing the forests is an interesting development; one can move a lot of units through a forest devoid of prying eyes.

I wonder what might be the broader implications might be regarding the Russia offer of "help". Wonder if Putin might want to take Belarus eventually and use it as a jumping point against NATO.
Click to expand...
A distinct possibility this looks just like Crimea
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
northern watch said:
I strongly suspect Belarus will be incorporated into the Russian Federation
Click to expand...

It's a perfect opportunity to absorb Belarus back into the Rodina. Lukashenko has asked Putin to provide support to help keep him propped up in power.
The Russians send troops and make like they're going to help Lukashenko, and end up taking over the country. The Georgian/South Ossetia war comes to mind.
 
David Nettleton

David Nettleton

Veteran Member
Here's another take. Our professional elitist neocons who want to box in Russia lost this election just like the one in Ukraine. We create civil strife in Belarus just like we did when we lost in Ukraine. Putin was not going to let us bar his use of his only warm water navy port in the Black Sea, and rushed to save this option. Putin is not going to allow the neocons to establish a military presence in Belarus or anywhere near him that is a threat. Aside: Number of US military bases outside of consus = 238. Number of Russian military bases outside of Russia proper = 2. Also, objective number one for the deep state is Trump's removal. How does the Belarus situation here figure into this goal?
 
naegling62

naegling62

Veteran Member
Well as far as Western expansion goes, if we come out of the post Soviet collapse with the Baltics, Poland, most of UKR...sounds like a winner. Did we ever really think Russia would let Belarus go to NATO?
 
naegling62

naegling62

Veteran Member
David Nettleton said:
Here's another take. Our professional elitist neocons who want to box in Russia lost this election just like the one in Ukraine. We create civil strife in Belarus just like we did when we lost in Ukraine. Putin was not going to let us bar his use of his only warm water navy port in the Black Sea, and rushed to save this option. Putin is not going to allow the neocons to establish a military presence in Belarus or anywhere near him that is a threat. Aside: Number of US military bases outside of consus = 238. Number of Russian military bases outside of Russia proper = 2. Also, objective number one for the deep state is Trump's removal. How does the Belarus situation here figure into this goal?
Click to expand...
I don't think Belarus fits into Trump's plans. Now the deep state/neocons would surely like a destabilized Belarus.
 
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