CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
With all due respect to you as a poster and, in reality, thanking you immensely for the reminder you provided in the post, I provide the following reply:

That was the most disgusting, sickening post I have read on this thread regarding conditions here in the U.S. You are entirely correct and should be rewarded in some way for that damned graphic reminder of what all of us face on a daily basis. I harp on these types of things with my family on such a regular basis that they think I am a pain in the ass but you are 100% correct.

I've always personally, and have advised others (to the point of buying and giving away) hand sanitizer to keep in vehicles for use when returning from public places...grocery stores, outings, etc. Of course this doesn't mean that people remember to use the stuff, but hey...at least it doesn't freeze in -20F weather, and makes a good fire-starter in a pinch.

We can only do what we can do in our own little spheres of influence.
 

homecanner1

Veteran Member
Sen. Tom Cotton on War Room Pandemic is calling for a "Manhattan Project type response to this, across the board in our Medical system"

Agree 100 percent and add, this is your trial by fire as leadership. Cotton and Bannon will emerge from this with the bonafides for helping lead us out of this crisis. Stay the course gentlemen. Keep rallying the public daily. Esp. on repatriation of our supply chain back on our soil. Priority #1 is gowns, masks and gloves Made in America as a National Security Emergency.
'
adding, I have worked in 4 grocery store chains in my life, and people are absolutely disgusting tossing their used kleenex out on the shelves etc., old ladies with a bag of grapes nibbling while they shop and then abandon the unbought bag on a shelf. They considered it their way of obtaining unpaid fresh fruit on limited/fixed incomes.

Public spitting laws will get revived. Women were livid about it at the turn of the century as their long skirts touched the ground, turning into veritable mops picking up germs off sidewalks and floors, and their hemlines changed ever after Spanish Flu in the 1920's.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
WHO Turns On China, Demands To Know How Nearly 2,000 Doctors Were Infected With COVID-19

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Fri, 02/14/2020 - 10:58


Summary:
  • China says 1,716 medical workers have been infected
  • WHO demands to know more about sick doctors, insists group of 12 virus experts will reach Beijing over the weekend
  • Singapore reports largest daily jump in cases amid increased human-to-human transmission
  • Hong Kong reports 3 new cases
  • Hubei's new party boss orders quarantine tightened
  • President Xi touts new "biosecurity law"
  • Hong Kong Disney land offers space for quarantine
  • Chinese company says blood plasma of recovered patients useful in combating the virus
  • US mulling new travel restrictions
  • Japan reports 4 new cases; one patient recently returned from Hawaii.
  • CDC Director: Virus is "Coming" to the US.
* * *
Update (1040ET): The WHO has just wrapped up its now-daily presser for Friday, and it appeared to focus on imminent plans to send a group of a dozen scientists and researchers to Beijing to figure out exactly what the hell is going on.


Much fuss has been made over the past week over China's continued refusals to allow Americans, or any other foreigners, for that matter, to offer assistance with the virus response. It's almost as if they're...hiding something...
Even after yesterday's big reveal about the change in their 'pro forma accounting standards' to reflect a higher death toll and number of confirmed cases (the jump alarmed global investors and prompted a selloff on equity markets), China still won't let Americans participate in a WHO-sponsored team of 12 researchers who are traveling to the mainland.
It was a big deal earlier this week when Beijing said it would reluctantly accept the team, ending weeks of suspiciously standoffish behavior (though the WHO bigwigs did travel to Beijing for meetings). But as one analyst said earlier on CNBC: 'We want to see foreign boots on the ground before we simply take the Chinese at their word'.

It's also notable how the WHO, initially a purveyor of what seemed like propaganda hot off the presses in Beijing, seems to have turned completely against its benefactor, now treating it with public suspicion.

  • WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION TEDROS SAYS WE NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT INFECTION OF 1,760 CHINESE HEALTH WORKERS, INCLUDING TIME PERIOD AND CIRCUMSTANCES
  • WHO BOSS TEDROS SAYS HE EXPECTS FULL TEAM OF WHO-LED INTERNATIONAL HEALTH EXPERTS TO TOUCH DOWN IN CHINA OVER WEEKEND TO HELP PROBE CORONAVIRUS
  • WHO MISSION TO CHINA WILL FOCUS ON UNDERSTANDING TRANSMISSION OF CORONAVIRUS, SEVERITY OF DISEASE AND IMPACT OF ONGOING RESPONSE MEASURES - WHO CHIEF TEDROS SAYS
  • WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION TEDROS SAYS WE NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT INFECTION OF 1,760 CHINESE HEALTH WORKERS, INCLUDING TIME PERIOD AND CIRCUMSTANCES
But after today's WHO press conference, we were left with the distinct impression that it's almost as if China doesn't...want the team to come.

Why else would they have waited to reveal the figures about all the sick doctors and health-care workers until Friday morning in the US and Europe? Just a thought.

Back in the US, a team of American expertss is prepared to travel to China to investigate the outbreak on a moments notice, should they ever receive clearance from a government official, according to Secretary Azar.

As he said (and we noted) earlier, the US is bracing for the possibility that the warm weather doesn't kill the virus, as President Trump expects.

Anyway, moving away from China, we've seen unconfirmed reports of four patients in St. Petersburg escaping a COVID-19 quarantine. Earlier in the week, two women escaped quarantines in Siberia.

* * *

Update (1000ET): China is turning the quarantine nob up to '11'.

After imposing strict lockdown conditions on nearly a third of the country, Beijing's is kicking off its shift to 'wartime measures' by adopting even more strikingly draconian measures on the residents of its capital city.

From Feb. 14 on, all people returning to the city will be advised to quarantine for 14 days.

Meanwhile, the BBC reports that hundreds of conference atendees in London have been contacted by health officials after one of them was later diagnosed with the virus.

The person, who has not been identified, attended the UK Bus Summit at the QEII Conference Centre last week. Two Labour MPs who attended the conference said they're cancelling public events until Feb. 20, just in case.

So far, nine people in the UK have been confirmed to have the virus.

* * *

Update (0915ET): Japan has reported 4 new cases of the virus, including one man who recently returned from the US state of Hawaii, and another who helped transfer an infected patient diagnosed aboard "the Diamond Princess", the cruise ship that has been quarantined in Yokohama for 10 days.

Meanwhile, over in the US, this interview of the director of the CDC warning that the virus could become widespread in the US 'beyond 2020'.

* * *

Update (0850ET): Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said during an interview on Friday morning that more travel restrictions are "on the table," suggesting that the US might apply similar restrictions to Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and other Asian countries that have reported rising numbers of cases.

Earlier this month, the State Department raised its travel alert for China to '4', and the US imposed restrictions on foreigners who have recently traveled to China and re-routing Americans who have been to viral hotspots to certain US airports for screening on arrival. These travel restrictions have infuriated Beijing, and prompted a government spokesperson to accuse the US of spreading hysteria.

Even if the virus does "go away" in April, as President Trump has insisted...

“We’re seeing very limited impact here in the United States, but that could change at any time,” HHS Sec. Alex Azar says about coronavirus. “We’re working...with states, local governments and the private sector so we’re ready if it gets here.”https://t.co/Kosiam25fb pic.twitter.com/2xR0UwMuZz
— New Day (@NewDay) February 14, 2020

...At this point, Q1 GDP is going to be a disaster anyway, so the US might as well kitchen-sink it.

And it's not like investors have anything to worry about - bad news is still good news, after all, and the market will simply go to pricing in ~1 Fed rate hike in 2020 to ~2.

* * *

Update (0810ET): Earlier this morning, Hong Kong confirmed three more coronavirus infections, bringing the total number of cases in the city to 56.



Here's more information on the new cases from SCMP:

  • The Centre for Health Protection said one of the three cases involved a man in critical condition after suffering shortness of breath for more than 10 days. He had to be intubated in Princess Margaret Hospital. He lives in Shek Lei Estate in Kwai Chung, and passed through the Lok Ma Chau border crossing on January 22.
  • Another person who tested positive for the virus, which causes the disease known as Covid-19, was the cousin of a previously infected case. Both attended a family gathering of 29 at a restaurant in North Point on January 26. At least six other members at that gathering have been infected with the new deadly virus, while at least two are still in quarantine pending test results.
  • The third case is a worker in a dim sum restaurant in Sheung Wan, whose husband visited their son in Xinhui, Guangdong province, from January 23 to January 28. Her husband and son are not infected.
Unlike most of the countries that have reported cases of the virus, both Singapore and Hong Kong have confirmed human-to-human transmission within their own borders, meaning the outbreak has already started to spread past the 2nd and 3rd generations of the infected.

Though Singapore is still ahead in terms of number of cases, Hong Kong is giving it a run for its month (though, as we've said before, it's an outbreak, not a race).

* * *

Following Chinese health officials' claim last night that it "double-counted" some deaths (while crematoriums in the country have been working 24/7 as the outbreak has worsened over the last few weeks), the good people at China's NHC have disclosed for the first time that 1,716 medical workers have been infected across the country.

Does this figure seem a little underwhelming? Officials put the infected medical worker total at 3.8% of 60k+ total cases on the mainland, and added that six medical workers - including the martyr Dr. Li - have died as of Friday. Of course, even if they're all wearing protective gear (which we know many aren't especially in the hardest hit areas like Hubei) this number would still seem low for such an infectious disease, given that more than 65,000 cases have been confirmed across the world.

One expert who spoke to the New York Times said the number of infected medical workers is "concerning."

“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Healthcare workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”
From what we've heard and read, it seems that shortages of supplies like facemasks, gloves, goggles and other protective gear have persisted, even in Hubei, according to the NYT. During the SARS outbreak, 961 medical workers were infected, representing some 18% of all infections. Since COVID-19 is even more contagious than SARS, we'd expect the number of medical workers infected to be even higher.

After expressing skepticism about Beijing's response to the virus earlier in the week, it looks like the WHO is back to shilling for the Communist Party, claiming overnight that the jump in cases in China shouldn’t be characterized as a "spike," and that it’s normal to change how cases are defined.

Across the mainland, the Chinese people, who have been frustrated by the government's dissembling, have come up with jokes like this one.

How many monkeys died?
26 caves collapsed.
How many monkeys died?
Only 5K trees ruined.
How many monkeys died?
All alive moneys transferred to safe places.
How many monkeys died?
Relatives of the dead monkeys are emotionally stable.
How many monkeys died?
We saved one today. https://t.co/KUh9O5IqiG
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 14, 2020

Given everything we've learned about the virus, and all the reports about shortages of medical supplies like facemasks across the country, but especially in Hubei Province, we suspect that the real number is much, much larger. It's just the latest evidence that Beijing hasn't given up on doctoring its disease stats, even after its big non-admission on Thursday that its methods for confirming virus-linked cases and deaths hadn't been sufficiently inclusive.



As we first pointed out yesterday, party officials said yesterday that the country would use "wartime measures" - a kind of public emergency declaration - to fight the virus, suggesting that the lockdowns will become even more widespread.

China fights #coronavirus with 'wartime' measures; Infected patient's daughter makes desperate plea#COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #coronaviruschina https://t.co/mYczlRVis1
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 14, 2020

And as that happens, more scenes like these are playing out across the country.

First, they covered up the truth, second, they said this disease was preventable and controllable, third, they locked you up. Now they terrify you like this. What a hell! Terrorists are on the go. #COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #coronaviruschina pic.twitter.com/CuPpqRncur
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 14, 2020

A real time photo from David Ng’s friend in #Wuhan. Only 7 families have their lights on in a 30 level building; whilst usually every window was on. The friend’s own building has only 5 families’ lights on. How many have gone? You do your own math. #COVID19 #coronavirus https://t.co/QjVv8t0kGw
— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 14, 2020

In more immediately alarming news, Singapore reported nine new cases overnight, the largest daily increase yet in the city-state, which is now reporting a total of 67 cases, leaving it in third place after mainland China and the 'Diamond Princess' (cases quarantined off the ship are being counted separately from domestic Japanese cases).

Meanwhile, as the quest for a vaccine continues, Chinese state media is reporting that the China National Biotec Group has found virus-neutralizing antibodies in the plasma of recovered patients. Experiments have shown that these antibodies can help kill the virus, potentially speeding up the timeline for a successful vaccine.

The company said it had successfully prepared the plasma for clinical treatment after strict blood biological safety testing, virus inactivation and antiviral activity testing. The plasma had been used to treat 11 patients in critical condition, with significant results, it said.

Here's more on that from SCMP:

Clinical tests showed that, after 12 to 24 hours of treatment, the main inflammatory indicators in the laboratory decreased significantly, the proportion of lymphocytes increased, key indicators such as blood oxygen saturation and viral load improved, and clinical signs and symptoms improved significantly.
"The plasma product to treat the novel coronavirus is made from plasma loaded with antibodies donated by recovered patients. It went through virus inactivation and was tested against virus-neutralising antibodies and multiple pathogenic microorganisms," the company said, according to the report.
Following the scapegoating of two of the most senior party officials in Hubei, the province's new party boss, Ying Yong, held his first meeting on the outbreak with staff late Thursday, and immediately proceeded to lay down the law: He ordered officials to redouble their efforts to tighten quarantine controls in communities and neighborhoods across the province. This includes making sure that every individual suspected of infection must be quarantined.

In other news, China's zombie companies are breathing a sigh of relief after the Communist Party ordered the nation's banks to implement a loan default 'grace period' to ensure that China's mountain of bad debt doesn't come tumbling down like a house of cards.

Banks are told to tolerate higher bad loans and further raise tolerance for regions and industries hit hard by the virus

As the outbreak rages unabated and China struggles to get its economy back to work, the leadership in Beijing have continued to parrot the party line that the backlash for China's economy will remain minimal, with China's foreign secretary becoming the latest to assure the public that the economy will swiftly recover after a brief pullback.

President Xi said Friday that the country must improve its responses to major public health crises, and added that a new "biosecurity law" would soon be passed.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday urged an improvement in the preventive mechanism in response to major public health crises and the country's public health emergency and management system. Xi also stressed the importance to roll out a biosecurity law as soon as possible. pic.twitter.com/fOqxZJcRSA
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) February 14, 2020

Finally, readers who enjoy a little dark humor (we suspect that's most of you) should get a kick out of this: Disneyland Hong Kong has agreed to let the city government use its land for quarantine space.

 

mzkitty

I give up.
With all due respect to you as a poster and, in reality, thanking you immensely for the reminder you provided in the post, I provide the following reply:

That was the most disgusting, sickening post I have read on this thread regarding conditions here in the U.S. You are entirely correct and should be rewarded in some way for that damned graphic reminder of what all of us face on a daily basis. I harp on these types of things with my family on such a regular basis that they think I am a pain in the ass but you are 100% correct. I was a member of an infection control committee for 15 years in a hospital environment and the committee emphasis was on the nosocomial and iatrogenic but your Costco experience should be read by every member here and discussed at length with their families.

All readers are encouraged to research:

Ignaz Semmelweis

Thank you.

And in China this morning I saw another video of people hacking stuff up and wiping it on anything (shelves, doorways, etc.).

I didn't bother saving it. I'm sure you don't want to see it.

Our grocery store has wipes right at the door as you go in. We always grab a handful and my son wipes down the carts real good.

:dvl2:
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
How many doctors are we going to lose? My nephew and his wife are young doctors. He's pretty blase about this. They're going on vacation in Hawaii in a couple weeks. No concerns about the virus.

When happens when we've exhausted the masks on hand? Hospitals are already critically short, per an earlier post. They work with no protection? How many full coverage suits do we have?
 

vestige

Deceased
And in China this morning I saw another video of people hacking stuff up and wiping it on anything (shelves, doorways, etc.).

I didn't bother saving it. I'm sure you don't want to see it.

Our grocery store has wipes right at the door as you go in. We always grab a handful and my son wipes down the carts real good.

:dvl2:

I (we) do the same thing mzkitty but we live in a virtual petri dish that is being complemented every day. When some one enters any public place... or your house... or your personal space... they are putting some more components in that petri dish.

Lysol is your friend.

When I wash dishes and clean in the kitchen my wife tells her friends:

"_______ Cloroxes the hell out of everything."

We all have a good laugh but it is true.
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
Plasma from recovered patients used in virus fight

China National Biotec Group announced on Thursday evening that virus-neutralising antibodies had been detected in the plasma of patients who have recovered from Covid-19, and experiments have proven they can effectively kill the virus, according to a Beijing News report on Friday.

This sounds promising, hopefully showing re-infection is not as easy as we thought, if the antibodies are in the blood of recovered people.

Just how many of the recovered will be drained of their blood for transfusions for the ruling party????

Texican....
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
Can any of those that own scanners recommend a scanner for a novice? I have been looking at Uniden BCD 536HP Digital......any thoughts or recommendations would be most appreciated.


The scanner you need depends on the level of tech in use by the people you want to hear. Most public service traffic in the ZUSA is VHF or UHF and a basic scanner will do. The more complex the tech (trunked) the more expensive the scanner. Some (frequency hopping) you can't get, as far as I know.

I did a thread some months ago on the old board that will cover more than I can type right now … see

 
Last edited:

rondaben

Veteran Member

Definitely a critical care ward. Note the patient in the foreground is on a ventilator and on his stomach with the head of the bed slightly lower than the foot. Almost assuredly in ARDS. This position is to assist in the draining of fluid from the lungs. The IV pumps beside the person are also almost assuredly for pushing pressers to keep the blood pressure of the patient behind up. Also, hard to tell but the doc seems to be wearing a surgical mask and not a N-95 and it seems to not be fit particularly well.
 

momengineer

Senior Member
In regards to the “two weeks/that’s what was said two weeks ago” comments...I offer this (as best I can from memory and my limited understanding )

In early dec- there were less than 50 official cases in Wuhan. (Theories are that it started as early as nov and took a month to get to 50)

byJan (one month later) -up in 1000s (official) and they start to lock cities down

now-another month -50k? (Official) with 1000s being recognized per *day* as infected

this is classic exponential growth. Seemingly nothing, nothing, nothing, slight increase and then BAM!Seemingly everywhere

now, obliviously China ignored the “flat” part of the exponential curve and so the cases multipled with a much higher “slope”. The US, and other developed countries) have the advantage of trying to control/quarantine during the “nothing” phase or flat part of the curve.

Looking at this from a mathematical mindset :
1) Might mean we can halt the spread of the disease and it stops before goes exponential (this is what happened with Ebola in Texas a few years ago)...we have a “flat” straight line with no upward curve (ie no explosion of cases) aka prairie lands/flat

2)Might mean we can’t halt it, but the slope (or total number of cases) is lower (seems to be cdc position) you get an curve upward but it’s not as steep as China currently-think smoky mountains vs rocky mountains


3) Or...worst case, we have what china’s having -think the Rockies jutting up out of the prairie land of Colorado

the fact is- the USA is in the flat part of the curve. Where it goes remains to be seen....we can theorize all we want right now but we have to be watchful till this is over. Just my thoughts Imho. Ymmv
 

mzkitty

I give up.
I (we) do the same thing mzkitty but we live in a virtual petri dish that is being complemented every day. When some one enters any public place... or your house... or your personal space... they are putting some more components in that petri dish.

Lysol is your friend.

When I wash dishes and clean in the kitchen my wife tells her friends:

"_______ Cloroxes the hell out of everything."

We all have a good laugh but it is true.

Yup.. As soon as we leave the store we use the hand sanitizer, and as soon as we get home and put stuff away, we wash our hands with hot water and soap. Using Lysol wipes helps too. I can't do a lot of bleach though.

:)
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Yup.. As soon as we leave the store we use the hand sanitizer, and as soon as we get home and put stuff away, we wash our hands with hot water and soap.

Same here. Also in restaurants as soon as we put down the menu.
 

momengineer

Senior Member
It's always exponential. It just looks flat at the start compared to going near vertical.
Yes, perhaps I muddied it...my point was you can halt it from going exponential if you keep it from replicating...:like the Texas Ebola case was stopped from doing
 

Terrwyn

Veteran Member
How many of us jump on this string every hour and scroll through looking for that "AHH-HAAAAAA" post? I know I do. I think I'm looking for the first reports of "clustering". I agree again with Rondaben, ER's are just treating and streeting "flu" cases, treating systemic complaints. How may of us truly KNOW if we stood next to someone from China in a Walmart line, picked up an item after an infected person hacked on it.....etc.?
My other BIG fear is for the herd to sniff in the wind something is up. Imagine if Brad Pitt, Oprah, Leo slipped a comment that they were worried or making adjustments to their lifestyles?? Be it fake news, fact news, Facebook, Twitter Tweet, anything could start the masses moving. If the locusts are bad in Africa, just wait for the GDP to start stampeding the grocery stores. Right now I'm more worried about a "Pandemic Panic" I see coming. The R0 for panicking peeps has got to be at least R75!!! Get it now if you need it, the more this goes mainstream, the less time you'll have.
It is going mainstream. My local news has stories on the first 5 min. Today it was the Lobster fisherman having to cut their prices from 15 lb. to 8 lb. because most of their catch goes to China. Plus they had the story about all the medical workers over there that have fallen ill with the virus.
 

teadrinker

Senior Member
Can any of those that own scanners recommend a scanner for a novice? I have been looking at Uniden BCD 536HP Digital......any thoughts or recommendations would be most appreciated.


The scanner you need depends on the level of tech in use by the people you want to hear. Most public service traffic in the ZUSA is VHF or UHF and a basic scanner will do. The more complex the tech (trunked) the more expensive the scanner. Some (frequency hopping) you can't get, as far as I know.

I did a thread some months ago on the old board that will cover more than I can type right now … see

Thank you.
 

shane

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Three day weekends have always had me on a little extra alert for something nasty
to get unleashed or revealed, so fewer can immediately panic with bank withdrawals
and/or selling out (cashing in) of their investment accounts crashing markets, etc.

If you'd been meaning to have a little more cash in hand than it all stuck in the bank,
might oughta get that done today, just saying...

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!

- Shane
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ezekiel‏ @EzekielJoe144 26m26 minutes ago

Ezekiel Retweeted 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng

#Chinese are claiming cause of death in most #coronavirus cases is FUNGAL INFECTION IN LUNGS! Translation: virus may be causing some sort of auto immune deficiency. (This is what kills HIV patients, the AutoImmune Deficiency aka AIDS) #COVID19


To the Medical folks here - is there any treatments to suppress the fungus which may be accompanying this beast?

TIA
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Economic fallout from China’s coronavirus mounts around the world

By David J. Lynch
Washington Post
February 13, 2020 at 11:54 p.m. EST

The economic casualties from China’s coronavirus epidemic are mounting as Asian and European auto plants run short of parts, free-spending Chinese tourists stay home and American companies brace for unpredictable turbulence.

That’s just the start of a financial hangover that is expected to linger for months even if the flulike illness is soon brought under control, economists and supply chain experts say. The Chinese epidemic’s aftereffects will probably cause the global economy to shrink this quarter for the first time since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, according to Capital Economics in London
.

Chinese factories had been scheduled to reopen February 10, after a Lunar New Year holiday that had been extended for several days because of the medical scare. But with many workers unable or unwilling to return to employers located in a sprawling quarantine region, the resumption of routine operations in many workplaces has been delayed.

The coronavirus and other outbreaks are hard to contain. Here's why.

Caterpillar this week said most of its Chinese suppliers have returned to work. But Foxconn, a major electronics producer for Apple, said it will be the end of the month before even half of its facilities are operating.

The country’s links to the outside world, meanwhile, remain frayed. United Airlines and American Airlines said this week that they would not resume normal service to mainland China until April 24, almost a month later than planned.

The ripple effects of China’s shutdown are spreading, with the auto industry especially hard-hit. Nissan temporarily closed one of its factories in Japan after running short of Chinese components, one week after Hyundai in South Korea did the same. Fiat Chrysler warned that it may shutter one of its European plants. Some U.S. manufacturers could face parts shortages in one to two weeks.

The coronavirus is forcing cruise ships to take drastic measures

Cruise ships and their passengers are being quarantined and denied entry into ports of call over fears of spreading the coronavirus further. (The Washington Post)

“I worry that it’s going to be a bigger deal than most economists are treating it as right now,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, the German financial services company. “It will take time to restart all these economic engines.”

About 5,100 cases of covid-19 were confirmed in China on Thursday and 121 more people died, Chinese health officials said Friday morning. Most of the new cases and deaths continued to be in Hubei province.

More than 63,000 confirmed cases and approximately 1,380 deaths have been reported in China since the outbreak began.

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday reported the 15th coronavirus case, an individual who had been in quarantine in Texas since arriving on a State Department-chartered aircraft from Wuhan on February 7. And Japan reported its first coronavirus death. It also said 44 more people had tested positive for the illness aboard the quarantined cruise liner Diamond Princess, bringing to 218 the number of ship-borne infections.

The coronavirus struck China as many U.S. corporations were reconsidering their global footprints. President Trump’s tariffs on roughly 70 percent of all Chinese goods, imposed during a two-year trade war with Beijing, raised doubts about the future of trans-Pacific supply lines.

“We were already hitting the pause button on globalization,” El-Erian said. “This [virus] disrupts the movement of goods and it disrupts the movement of people, making companies reassess how international they want their supply chains to be.”

After initially dismissing the epidemic as principally a Chinese problem, U.S. policymakers in recent days acknowledged it will damage the global and U.S. growth outlooks. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell said this week that there will “very likely be some effects on the United States” from the epidemic, which has closed thousands of Chinese factories that supply American companies.

Among the first tangible effects in the United States is a decline in the number of Chinese tourists. Visitors from China represent a lucrative market for U.S. airlines, hotels, luxury retailers and entertainment venues, with average spending of about $6,500 per person.

As of February 7, the number of passengers flying between North America and China was 75 percent below last year’s level and was shrinking by the day, according to Quandl, a financial data provider.

At Sino American Tours, a Manhattan travel agency that caters to Chinese Americans, bookings have plunged by 20 to 30 percent, said Charles Man, vice president for marketing.

“Of course, we’re impacted,” he said. “A lot of people canceled trips back to Beijing, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Taiwan and Singapore.”

Chinese officials, meanwhile, are growing increasingly concerned that their efforts to contain the virus are strangling the economy. President Xi Jinping this week instructed subordinates to avoid “overreactions” that interfered with China’s development goals. Huang Qifan, an influential economic policymaker, has said the ongoing supply chain disruptions are more costly than the two-year U.S.-China trade war, according to Trivium, an economic research firm in Beijing.

Indeed, the battle to contain the epidemic brought much of the world’s second-largest economy to a standstill. The Chinese provinces most affected by the coronavirus are home to 49,884 branches or subsidiaries of foreign corporations, including nearly 9,500 American operations, according to Dun & Bradstreet.

A Chinese quarantine applying to roughly 60 million people — more than the population of Spain — interrupted routine business operations for almost every member of the Fortune 1000 list of the world’s biggest corporations, Dun & Bradstreet said.

The Chinese government’s enforced halt to commerce was akin to an economic stroke, cutting off the flow of needed parts and materials to companies all over the world. And just as with a stroke, the effects will linger after production across China sputters to life.

“It’s going to happen in phases,” said Hitendra Chaturvedi, a former supply chain specialist for Microsoft. “It’s going to take six to eight weeks before everything comes back on line.”

Each major Chinese supplier to a global corporation relies upon a network of smaller companies to provide food, uniforms, sanitation and parts. Nike, for example, depends upon 110 Chinese factories, each with their own supplier webs
.

“They’ll be having their own problems,” said Chaturvedi, who teaches at Arizona State University. “It’s not like you hit the button and everything starts to work automatically.”

Along with crimping production of current products, the coronavirus shutdown has interrupted research and development efforts and thus may also delay the introduction of next-generation models, he added. That could affect consumer electronics makers such as Apple, which relies on China for almost half of its 775 global supply facilities.

One of those firms, AT&S of Austria, cut its revenue forecast for the current fiscal year by nearly 7 percent after the virus disrupted production at its Shanghai and Chongqing facilities. The company produces printed circuit boards for Apple and Intel as well as European automakers.

In some parts of China, businesses must pass a local government inspection before resuming work. Since there are only so many inspectors, that creates a bottleneck. Some foreign executives are trying to speed things up by showing officials receipts proving they are major taxpayers, said James McGregor, chairman of APCO Worldwide’s greater China region.

Many office workers face long lines to have their temperatures checked before they can enter their buildings. Once inside, some have objected to running central heating systems, preferring space heaters to the alleged dangers of recirculated air, McGregor said.

ASE Technology, a Taiwanese semiconductor maker, is struggling with a shortfall of returning workers and uncertainties about which of its suppliers are fully operational.

“This virus is a negative lottery and everyone is doing whatever they cannot to win,” Ken Hsiang, the company’s head of investor relations, said on a February 7 conference call. “So, the fear that is gripping the world, the overabundance of caution at a personal, company and sovereign government levels are completely understandable. The impacts to our business are totally unpredictable.”

China’s $14 trillion economy now is a patchwork affair. In some areas, local officials are prodding employers to return to work. Elsewhere, officials remain preoccupied with the risk of contagion. The share of businesses that are operating normally ranges from about 26 percent in central Sichuan province to nearly 70 percent in Shanghai, according to Trivium.

Many employees remain reluctant to return to jobs in crowded factories, where an isolated cough might idle an assembly line. Those who want to return often face transport headaches as some public services have yet to return to full operations.

“Everything was supposed to be back to normal by now,” said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “It’s not going to happen for a while. I think that’s starting to sink in.”

The coronavirus is expected to dent global growth by depressing business and consumer confidence as well as temporarily severing supply chains, economists said. “Where the trade war ended, the coronavirus has picked up,” said Nathan Sheets, chief economist for PGIM Fixed Income. “It suggests a whole additional class of risks they need to worry about as they rely on Chinese suppliers. It’s another powerful shock toward global de-integration.”


Lasting effects on global trade also may emerge from the ocean freight market.

Shipping rates on some routes out of China are down by one-quarter, despite new international regulations that took effect January 1 requiring the use of cleaner but more costly fuel, said Patrik Berglund, chief executive of Xeneta, an online shipping platform based in Oslo.

Major retailers and manufacturers will soon be negotiating long-term shipping contracts amid an unpredictable market. They might benefit in the short run from lower prices. But if artificially depressed rates are locked in for an entire year, one or more shipping lines could tumble into bankruptcy and further unsettle global trade, he said.

“If there’s limited cargo coming out of all of Asia, depending upon how this develops, we might see shipping lines really struggling to pull through,” Berglund said.

Wall Street has taken the crisis in stride, with the Dow Jones industrial average still up about 3 percent so far this year. But the financial markets’ calm could be tested as additional data becomes available, said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics.

Negative readings on consumer or business confidence could send investors flooding into U.S. government bonds, pushing up the value of the dollar and leading to tighter financial conditions.

“We’ve been lucky to see no financial market ramifications,” he said. “That’s where a big part of the risk lies.”

David Lynch

David J. Lynch is a staff writer on the financial desk who joined The Washington Post in November 2017 after working for the Financial Times, Bloomberg News and USA Today. Follow



https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...b69a12-4e8c-11ea-9b5c-eac5b16dafaa_story.html
 

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Chinese oil demand may have fallen as much 4 million barrels per day (bpd) as a result of the coronavirus outbreak in China, Hubei Province and has spread globally, Goldman Sachs warns.
 
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