CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
(fair use applies)

Now deadly mystery Chinese virus crosses the ocean to Japan as World Health Organisation warns it could spread around the globe
By Terri-ann Williams For Mailonline
Published: 20:57 EST, 15 January 2020 | Updated: 21:16 EST, 15 January 2020

  1. Japanese health ministry today confirmed a man in his 30s has the disease
  2. The man is believed to have recently visited the Chinese city of Wuhan
  3. In Wuhan there's been an outbreak of pneumonia caused by the new virus

Japan has confirmed its first case of infection from the new China coronavirus, after the World Health Organization (WHO) warned hospitals around the world to prepare for the illness.

The health ministry in Japan today said that a man in his 30s close to Tokyo has tested positive for the disease.

It is believed the man, who originates from the Kanagawa prefecture had recently been to the Chinese city of Wuhan.

In Wuhan there has been an outbreak of pneumonia believed to be caused by the new coronavirus strain.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has said the new virus could spread and has warned hospitals worldwide.

Scientists are baffled by the virus which has never been seen before. Tests have so far shown it is a type of coronavirus.

Forty-one cases have been contained in the Chinese city of Wuhan since December. One patient has died of the pneumonia caused by the virus.

However, the first identified case outside of the country in Thailand last week raised concerns the virus could cross borders.

The woman, a Chinese national who was on holiday in Thailand, triggered a step-up in surveillance at airports.

Although the virus was initially thought to be transmitted by animals, the WHO said there is now evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Earlier this week, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit, said it had given guidance to hospitals worldwide about infection control in case of spread.

This includes the potential of 'super spreading' in health care settings, which is when a few ill patients can transmit the virus to dozens at a time.

Discussing the potential spread of the virus, Dr Kerkhove said: 'This is something on our radar, it is possible, we need to prepare ourselves.'

Some hospitals in China, a tourist hotspot for some 595,000 British tourists each year, have already been directed to report cases of fever in anyone who has travelled to Wuhan in the past 14 days. The city is home to 11 million people.

Investigations have identified the respiratory disease as a new type of coronavirus, which cause cold-like symptoms including a runny nose, headache, cough, sore throat and a fever.

There has been some 'limited' human-to-human transmission of the virus, the WHO said. It has backtracked on its statement on January 12, when it said there was 'no evidence' of such.

The virus was largely speculated to have come from an animal, considering the majority of sickened people worked or visited a seafood market in Wuhan.

But since cases have cropped up without any exposure to the food market, there is reason to believe it can be transferred between humans.

The WHO added that cases have mainly been seen in small clusters among family members, but there is potential for wider spread.

A Chinese woman was quarantined in Thailand with the coronavirus, authorities said on Monday, the first time it has been detected outside China. She was able to return home on Wednesday in a stable condition.

The news came ahead of a flux of Chinese tourists to Thailand for Lunar New Year on January 25.

Other possible cases emerged up in 15 travellers who returned to Hong Kong and following visits to the city in Hubei province. One suspected case was also reported in Singapore.

It was feared the life-threatening SARS, a highly contagious virus, was behind the flurry of cases in Wuhan.

SARS killed hundreds of people in China and Hong Kong in the early 2000s. But no cases have been recorded in the world since 2004.

But SARS, bird flu, Middle East respiratory syndrome and adenovirus have now been ruled out following investigations, authorities have said.


THE NEW CORONIVURS IN CHINA TIMELINE

December 31 2019:
The WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. Around 44 suspected cases were reported in the month of December.

January 1 2020: A seafood market was closed for environmental sanitation and disinfection after being closely linked with the patients.

January 5 2020: Doctors ruled out severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as being the cause of the virus, as well as bird flu, Middle East respiratory syndrome and adenovirus. Meanwhile, Hong Kong reported

January 9 2020: A preliminary investigation identified the respiratory disease as a new type of coronavirus, Chinese state media reported.
Officials at Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported the outbreak's first death on January 9, a 61-year-old man.

January 13 2020: A Chinese woman in Thailand was the first confirmed case of the mystery virus outside of China. The 61-year-old was quarantined on January 8, but has since returned home in a stable condition after having treatment, the Thai Health Ministry said.

January 14 2020: The WHO say there is some 'limited' human-to-human transmission of the virus. Two days previously, the UN agency said there was 'no clear evidence of human to human transmission'.

January 16 2020: A man in Tokyo is confirmed to have tested positive for the disease after travelling to the Chinese city of Wuhan.
 
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Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Could get dicey. Right now they're saying 'don't panic'. Hopefully it won't amount to anything, but it's worth keeping an eye on if the WHO is warning about it.

(fair use applies)

Experts call for close monitoring of the new virus
2 hours ago

Experts say there's no need to be overly alarmed by the first confirmed case of a new coronavirus infection in Japan. But they also call for vigilance.

Nobuhiko Okabe, head of the Kawasaki City Institute for Public Health, says it's clear where the patient was infected as he had visited Wuhan. He also says human-to-human transmission has been very limited so far.

But he also cautions that little is known about the virus and close monitoring is necessary. He says that theoretically, the virus could mutate and become more virulent and spread more easily among humans.

He says that in Japan, influenza infection poses a higher risk and people shouldn't be too nervous about catching the new coronavirus.

He says the usual measures against flu will probably be effective, such as washing hands and avoiding crowds.

Tohoku University Professor Hitoshi Oshitani says a large-scale outbreak is unlikely at this point.

He points out that healthcare workers who have treated patients have not been infected and that infection has not spread widely from patients.

He says there's no sign of the virus spreading quickly and continuously like the SARS virus that caused an outbreak in China and other parts of Asia in 2003.

He says that at the moment the new virus seems to be causing less serious symptoms compared to SARS and other known viruses. He says it's important for authorities to quickly identify the source of infection and grasp the whole situation.
 

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
(fair use applies)

Mysterious Viral Outbreak in China Is Coronavirus: What to Know
Written by George Citroner on January 13, 2020
  1. Chinese authorities have detected a new outbreak of a coronavirus.
  2. While this is the same family as the SARS virus, it appears to be a new disease.
  3. The disease has been connected to a seafood market in China, but the investigation is still ongoing.

Chinese scientists have identified a previously unknown type of coronavirus as the cause of a recent pneumonia outbreak in the city of Wuhan, according to state media.

The current situation follows the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) outbreak in 2002 and first detection of Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012.

First case identified outside China

On January 13, a Chinese national traveling in Thailand was the first confirmed case of infection with the new coronavirus outside China, according to the WHO.

“The possibility of cases being identified in other countries was not unexpected, and reinforces why WHO calls for ongoing active monitoring and preparedness in other countries,” said the WHO in a statement.

Chinese authorities have posted the full genome of the new virus, according to a CDC situation summaryTrusted Source. It has been named ‘novel coronavirus 2019’ (nCoV-2019).

“There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with this novel coronavirus, and investigations are ongoing. Based on current information, however, the risk from the novel coronavirus 2019 to the American public is deemed to be low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions,” said the CDC in a statement.

The CDC also emphasized that there are no confirmed reports of person-to-person transmission. However, given what happened during previous MERS and SARS outbreaks, some limited person-to-person spread wouldn’t be surprising.

Tests rule out MERS/SARS

According to the World Health Organization (WHO)Trusted Source, initial information about the pneumonia cases in Wuhan, provided by Chinese authorities, pointed to the coronavirus (CoV) as a possible pathogen causing this cluster.

Chinese authorities later reported that laboratory tests ruled out SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, influenza, avian influenza, adenovirus, and other common infectious agents.

Over 8,000 people were infected with the SARS virus and almost 800 died in the 2002 pandemic.

The virus spread to nearly 40 countriesTrusted Source in 2002 and 2003. The same type of virus was associated with a similar outbreak of MERS, which was first identified in 2013Trusted Source in Saudi Arabia.

According to the WHOTrusted Source, MERS has been responsible for about 850 deaths worldwide.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, with some causing less-severe disease, like the common cold. Although some transmit easily from person to person, others do not.

Chinese authorities have confirmedTrusted Source that while the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients, it doesn’t transmit easily between people.

Infection linked to local seafood market

China state media reported that some of the people, who fell ill between December 12 and 29, are sellers from a local wholesale seafood market. That market has since been shut down for cleaning and disinfection according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The CDC advises that travelers to Wuhan, China should avoid living or dead animals, animal markets, and contact with sick people.

“What’s happening over there is in a particular area of China at a seafood market, and at this point it appears that transmission is from animal to human,” Nikhil Bhayani, an infectious disease physician with Texas Health Resources told Healthline.

“We don’t have any confirmation of human to human transmission, so that’s why the CDC has reported warning that tourists or travelers there avoid these type of exotic food markets where they’re selling seafood and exotic meats, and just be cautious of those areas,” he said.

What is a coronavirus?

“Corona means ‘crown,’ so these viruses appear crown-shaped when looked at under an electron microscope,” said Bhanu Sud, MD, an infectious disease specialist at St. Jude Medical Center in Placentia, California.

“Most coronaviruses are harmless,” he said. “They’ll usually cause mild to moderate upper respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people will get infected with these viruses at some point in their lives.”

Dr. Sud emphasized that while the prognosis is good for most people infected with this type of virus, the SARS and the MERS strains are more serious. They have a mortality rate that’s around 10 percent for people with SARS and 30 percent for those infected by the MERS variant.

“What is unknown right now is the virus being typed. They’re doing testing to find out what type of virus this is and whether it’s more similar to SARS or MERS,” Dr. Bhayani said. “I have a strong feeling that this is going to be a new virus.”

Chinese authorities taking measures against current outbreak

According to a translated report from the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission: “Experts advise that the city is currently in the season of high incidence of infectious diseases in winter and spring. Citizens should pay attention to maintaining indoor air circulation, avoiding closed and airless public places and crowded places, and wear masks if necessary.”

The report also states, “As of now, preliminary investigations have shown no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff infections.”

However, Dr. Sud said it’s very early in the investigation for the outbreak in China.

“It seems to be a coronavirus, but requires more time for fully understanding it,” Sud said. “Any infection anywhere in the world is always a risk for every country because international travel has become so easy now.”

He added that this is why early detection and quarantine are essential measures in halting the spread of these infections.

Infection spreads easily, no treatment available

According to Dr. Sud, human coronaviruses are most commonly spread from an infected person to others through:

  • the air by coughing and sneezing
  • close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands
  • touching an object or surface with the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes before washing your hands

“In the United States, people usually get infected with common human coronaviruses in the fall and winter. However, infection can occur at any time of the year,” he said.

“Most people will get infected with one or more of the common human coronaviruses in their lifetime,” he added.

He also pointed out both SARS and MERS outbreaks were from animal-to-human contact, with SARS most likely from contact with bats and MERS from contact with camels.

“Since the organism causing infection is a virus, to date, we don’t have any specific antiviral medications,” said Dr. Sud.

The bottom line

Chinese authorities have identified an outbreak of respiratory illness. While similar to a 2002 outbreak of SARS, these new cases appear to be less severe than what was observed then.

Research has revealed the infection is caused by a coronavirus, a common type of virus that can also cause the common cold.

In at least some of the cases, the likely source has been identified as a wholesale seafood market in the city of Wuhan, China.

Experts emphasize that since a virus causes the illness, there aren’t any treatments available and the infection can only be allowed to run its course.
 

Plain Jane

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Flutrackers has been closely monitoring this on this thread .


The patient who died had chronic health problems so while this disease is listed as the cause of death it is likely that an ordinary flu would have also done him in. That said, the potential for the mutation into something far more serious is what they are watching.

From post 207:

Source: https://www.singtao.ca/4037242/2020-...?variant=zh-hk

Wuhan Pneumonia] The Hospital Authority stated that 2 critically ill patients needed external life support treatment
January 15, 2020 02:52

Lai Weiwen, Chief Infection Control Director of the Hospital Authority, said that all 41 patients in Wuhan had mild to moderate pneumonia, and no symptoms were found but the virus was positive. Lai Weiwen pointed out that 7 to 8 of them were in serious condition, severe patients were aged 40 to 78, and had kidney and liver failure at the same time, and 2 patients needed external life support treatment.

Severe patients worsened after more than 10 days. Some patients were found to be infected with other viruses at the same time, and some patients were found to have secondary infections. Local judgments indicate that long-term chronic diseases, elderly people, and obesity are high-risk factors.


Lai Weiwen pointed out that a specific rapid test was developed locally, and viruses were found in throat secretion, sputum and blood. The overall number of white blood cells in patients with pneumonia is normal or low, and the lymphocytes are lower than normal. This phenomenon has occurred in other pneumonia. In addition, the lungs of local pneumonia patients will be filled with inflammatory secretions.

Patients are treated locally with supportive care, including oxygen and intravenous injections. Early treatment with Tamiflu was used locally, but it was discontinued after it was found not to be flu.
Local preaching has a certain degree of utility. No local ribavirin or protease was used.

Lai Weiwen pointed out that the discharge conditions for pneumonia patients in Wuhan were more than 10 days of fever reduction, and two samples that were 48 hours apart were negative for the virus. As for the deceased patient who became ill last month and died on January 9th, he is a chronically ill patient because his family objected that no autopsy was performed.
 

Mixin

Veteran Member
If they have already said this could be a pandemic, they know more about it than they are saying. I will post the link in my classes and see if anyone has more information on it. Meanwhile, I will try and find out about the genetics of the virus.
If you can read sequences:
Initial genome release of novel coronavirus
Novel 2019 coronavirus


Jan 10


1 / 13
Jan 11



10th January 2020
This posting is communicated by Edward C. Holmes, University of Sydney on behalf of the consortium led by Professor Yong-Zhen Zhang, Fudan University, Shanghai
The Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health, in collaboration with the Central Hospital of Wuhan, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control, and the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia is releasing a coronavirus genome from a case of a respiratory disease from the Wuhan outbreak. The sequence has also been deposited on GenBank (accession MN908947) and will be released as soon as possible.
The sequence can be downloaded here:

WH-Human_1.fasta.gz (8.9 KB – this is a fasta file compressed using gzip. Uncompress using gzip -d WH-Human_1.fasta.gz)
Disclaimer:
Please feel free to download, share, use, and analyze this data. We ask that you communicate with us if you wish to publish results that use these data in a journal. If you have any other questions –then please also contact us directly.
Professor Yong-Zhen Zhang,
Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health,
Fudan University,
Shanghai, China.
email: zhangyongzhen@shphc.org.cn

 

1911user

Veteran Member
I'm not sure if this is new information.

Patient in Japan confirmed as having new virus from China
By MARI YAMAGUCHI
January 16, 2020 GMT

Patient in Japan confirmed as having new virus from China


TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s government said Thursday a man treated for pneumonia after returning from China has tested positive for the new coronavirus identified as a possible cause of an outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
The man developed a fever and cough on Jan. 3 while in Wuhan, returned to Japan on Jan. 6, and was hospitalized four days later as the symptoms persisted, with his X-ray image showing signs of pneumonia, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said. Tests conducted Tuesday found the same coronavirus as had been detected in other patients in the Wuhan outbreak, the ministry said. The man has since been released from the hospital after his condition improved. He was only identified as a man in his 30s in Kanagawa prefecture, west of Tokyo, and Kyodo News agency said he is Chinese. His family and medical staff who treated him have not been sickened.

Officials in Wuhan said last weekend 41 people had pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus and a 61-year-old man had died — China’s first known death from the virus. The World Health Organization also has said it was consulting with Thai and Chinese health authorities after a case was reported in Thailand of a Chinese traveler.

Other Asian countries have also taken precautions. In Indonesia, thermal imaging equipment to detect abnormal body temperatures was installed at airports and seaports, the health ministry said. It said authorities will interview travelers, especially from China and Hong Kong, with temperatures higher than 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit), followed by a health check.

Indonesia has not reported any cases of the new virus. It was the world’s hot spot for avian influenza, both in birds and in humans, which peaked in 2006 and 2007 with 146 human deaths reported to the World Health Organization.
Eiji Hinoshita, an official at Japan’s health ministry, told reporters that the man treated there said he did not go to the fish market in Wuhan linked to the pneumonia outbreak, but had “close contact” with at least one person with pneumonia symptoms at a place where he stayed during the visit. Ministry officials are checking the patient’s activities and people he contacted in China and Japan.

The news came just ahead of the lunar new year, when many Chinese travel. Japan’s health ministry is urging those visiting or returning from Wuhan to wear masks and promptly seek medical treatment if they have coughs and fever. But officials said the virus is not considered highly contagious.

China has sought to play down speculation that it could be a reappearance of the SARS epidemic, which killed hundreds in 2002 and 2003.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, some of which cause the common cold. Others found in bats, camels and other animals have evolved to cause more severe illnesses.
Common symptoms include a runny nose, headache, cough and fever. Shortness of breath, chills and body aches are associated with more dangerous kinds of coronaviruses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
 

vector7

Veteran Member
Makes you wonder...the 'Useful Idiots' are working hard in Virginia once they get in power.

It's also much more efficient to spray for bugs possibly carrying a "rifle behind every blade of grass" before landscaping the yard.


 
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NCGirl

Veteran Member
Wonderful. One of hubby's engineers is in Wuhan this week. He always takes several days off when he returns normally, good, and hopefully he will return with nothing contagious this trip :)
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Am I mis-understanding the situation. I realize it is a bad flu, but very few are dying from the flu?

What am I missing?
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Mystery Chinese virus: How worried should we be?
By James GallagherHealth and science correspondent
  • 10 January 2020
Wuhan
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThe outbreak occurred in the city of Wuhan, south of Beijing
A mystery virus - previously unknown to science - is causing severe lung disease in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
More than 50 people have been infected. Seven are currently in a critical condition.
A new virus arriving on the scene, leaving patients with pneumonia, is always a worry and health officials around the world are on high alert.
But is this a brief here-today-gone-tomorrow outbreak or the first sign of something far more dangerous?
What is this virus?
Viral samples have been taken from patients and analysed in the laboratory.
And officials in China and the World Health Organization have concluded the infection is a coronavirus.
Coronaviruses are a broad family of viruses, but only six (the new one would make it seven) are known to infect people.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which is caused by a coronavirus, killed 774 of the 8,098 people infected in an outbreak that started in China in 2002.
"There is a strong memory of Sars, that's where a lot of fear comes from, but we're a lot more prepared to deal with those types of diseases," says Dr Josie Golding, from the Wellcome Trust.
Is it serious?
Coronaviruses can cause symptoms ranging from a mild cold all the way through to death.
This new virus appears to be somewhere in the middle.
"When we see a new coronavirus, we want to know how severe are the symptoms - this is more than cold-like symptoms and that is a concern but it is not as severe as Sars," says Prof Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh.
Viruses
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThere were six coronaviruses known to infect people.Where has it come from?
New viruses are detected all the time.
They jump from one species, where they went unnoticed, into humans.
"If we think about outbreaks in the past, if it is a new coronavirus, it will have come from an animal reservoir," says Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham.
Sars jumped from the civet cat into humans.
And Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), which has killed 858 out of the 2,494 recorded cases since it emerged in 2012, regularly makes the jump from the dromedary camel.
Which animal?
Once the animal reservoir where the virus normally camps out is detected, the problem becomes much easier to deal with.
The cases have been linked to the South China Seafood Wholesale Market, in Wuhan.
But while some sea-going mammals can carry coronaviruses (such as the Beluga whale), the market also has live wild animals, including chickens, bats, rabbits, snakes, which are more likely to be the source.
Why China?
Prof Woolhouse says it is because of the size and density of the population and close contact with animals harbouring viruses.
"No-one is surprised the next outbreak is in China or that part of the world," he says.

How easily does it spread?
Perhaps the single most reassuring fact about this outbreak is that the new virus does not appear to spread from one person to another.
This is a major concern with new viruses that infect the lungs, as coughs and sneezes are a highly effective way for a virus to spread.
If it was going person-to-person, then you would expect cases in healthcare workers as they come into close contact with sick patients.
Chinese officials say that has not happened.
However, some experts have cautioned it may be too soon to know whether there is human-to-human transmission.
Prof Ball says: "There would have to be 59 animal-to-human transmission events in a short amount of time, intuitively that does seem quite high, it is still an open question."
Prof Woolhouse says: "I'm cautious rather than sceptical, it is early too tell - most coronaviruses are actually transmissible and that would be my initial concern."
How fast is it spreading?
So far, not very.
All the 59 patients had symptoms start between 12 December and 29 December 2019.
And there have been no further cases reported.
"It's positive that we've not seen an expansion in cases," Dr Golding says.
"China is taking it seriously and it could be contained, we have to wait and see."
Concerns remain, however, that the virus could be spread by the hundreds of millions of people travelling for Chinese New Year later this month.
How have Chinese authorities responded?
Public health checks
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionTemperature screening can help identify people who have been infected
Infected people have been treated in isolation to minimise the risk of the bug spreading.
More than 150 people who have had contact with infected patients are being monitored for signs of the disease.
Extra checks such as temperature scans have been put in place to screen travellers.
And the seafood market was closed for cleaning and disinfection.
How worried are the experts?
Dr Golding says: "At the moment, until we have more information, it's really hard to know how worried we should be.
"Until we have confirmation of the source, that's always going to make us uneasy."
Prof Ball says: "We should be worried about any virus that explores humans for the first time, because it's overcome the first major barrier.
"Once inside a [human] cell and replicating, it can start to generate mutations that could allow it to spread more efficiently and become more dangerous.
"You don't want to give the virus the opportunity."
Follow James on Twitter.

 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
It is very simple. If it takes off the medical systems will be quickly overrun and you will not be able to get any medical assistance

If you have breathing problems normally then you will be dead. If you are a genuine Christian you will have nothing to fear. However if........
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Am I mis-understanding the situation. I realize it is a bad flu, but very few are dying from the flu?

What am I missing?
Well, except that it's NOT "flu"... and so elderberry, tamiflu, etc may not/don't work on it. (note: I have NO information on elderberry with this coronavirus. Tamiflu is reported upthread to not work. If anyone has any info regarding elderberry and coronaviruses, it would be very useful to post. Thanks!)

Summerthyme
 

Pinecone

Veteran Member
With seven people are in critical condition out of 50+ known cases, that seems serious if you catch it, but what if many just got a lighter case and figure it was the normal seasonal cold and weren't counted? How many real cases are there? Not to mention that if this thing mutates, then the burn rate of hair would increase dramatically. It's getting to be almost a yearly occurrence for a new virus to show up. One of these days, there'll be a population reset and it'll be brutal. We're on borrowed time for that historically. Enjoy your day! :D
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
It's a vet journal article about coronavirus in chickens, but ...
-----------------


BMC Vet Res. 2014; 10: 24.
Published online 2014 Jan 16. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-10-24
PMCID: PMC3899428
PMID: 24433341
Sambucus nigra extracts inhibit infectious bronchitis virus at an early point during replication
Christie Chen,1 David M Zuckerman,2 Susanna Brantley,1 Michka Sharpe,1 Kevin Childress,1 Egbert Hoiczyk,2 and Amanda R Pendleton
corresponding author
1,3
Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer
This article has been cited by other articles in PMC.

Go to:
Abstract
Background
Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a pathogenic chicken coronavirus. Currently, vaccination against IBV is only partially protective; therefore, better preventions and treatments are needed. Plants produce antimicrobial secondary compounds, which may be a source for novel anti-viral drugs. Non-cytotoxic, crude ethanol extracts of Rhodiola rosea roots, Nigella sativa seeds, and Sambucus nigra fruit were tested for anti-IBV activity, since these safe, widely used plant tissues contain polyphenol derivatives that inhibit other viruses.

Results
Dose–response cytotoxicity curves on Vero cells using trypan blue staining determined the highest non-cytotoxic concentrations of each plant extract. To screen for IBV inhibition, cells and virus were pretreated with extracts, followed by infection in the presence of extract. Viral cytopathic effect was assessed visually following an additional 24 h incubation with extract. Cells and supernatants were harvested separately and virus titers were quantified by plaque assay. Variations of this screening protocol determined the effects of a number of shortened S. nigra extract treatments. Finally, S. nigra extract-treated virions were visualized by transmission electron microscopy with negative staining.

Virus titers from infected cells treated with R. rosea and N. sativa extracts were not substantially different from infected cells treated with solvent alone. However, treatment with S. nigra extracts reduced virus titers by four orders of magnitude at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 1 in a dose-responsive manner. Infection at a low MOI reduced viral titers by six orders of magnitude and pretreatment of virus was necessary, but not sufficient, for full virus inhibition. Electron microscopy of virions treated with S. nigra extract showed compromised envelopes and the presence of membrane vesicles, which suggested a mechanism of action.

Conclusions
These results demonstrate that S. nigra extract can inhibit IBV at an early point in infection, probably by rendering the virus non-infectious. They also suggest that future studies using S. nigra extract to treat or prevent IBV or other coronaviruses are warranted.

Keywords: Infectious bronchitis virus, Coronavirus, Sambucus nigra, Nigella sativa, Rhodiola rosea
 

helen

Panic Sex Lady
When SARS was a headline around 15 years ago, a rural doctor told me one SARS case would use the one respirator the county hospital had.
 

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
There are a lot of very helpful, informative posts on this thread. Thanks to all who posted them.

Latest update:

(fair use applies)

Second patient DIES of mystery virus in China amid growing fears the lethal outbreak may spread around the world following a confirmed case in Japan
By Vanessa Chalmers
Published: 12:39 EST, 16 January 2020 | Updated: 15:14 EST, 16 January 2020

  • The 69-year-old man died in the early hours of January 15 in Wuhan
  • He was admitted to hospital on December 31 with symptoms of the virus
  • His health deteriorated on January 4 before he died, local media claims
  • Japan today confirmed its first case of infection from the new coronavirus

A second person has died from coronavirus in China amid fears the lethal outbreak may spread globally, officials have said.

The 69-year-old man, named only as Xiong, died in the early hours of January 15 at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan city.

He had been admitted to hospital on December 31 with symptoms of the virus, said officials at the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

Medical treatment failed to save him after his health deteriorated on January 4, local media claims.

A total of 41 patients in Wuhan have been struck with pneumonia caused by the virus since December. The first death, on January 9, was a man aged 61.

The news comes on the same day Japan confirmed its first case of infection – a man in his 30s from Tokyo who had recently visited Wuhan.

It was the second time the virus has been detected outside China, after a 61-year-old woman was quarantined and treated in Thailand. She had also visited Wuhan.

Since two cases have been identified outside the country, the World Health Organization has warned hospitals worldwide to prepare for a potential global spread.

The coronavirus, which causes cold-like symptoms including a runny nose, headache, cough, sore throat and a fever, has never been seen before and has not yet been named.

Officials have described the virus in China, a tourist hotspot for some 595,000 British tourists each year, as 'novel'.

Tests have so far shown it is a new type of coronavirus from the same family as the deadly SARS pathogen which killed hundreds of people in China and Hong Kong in the early 2000s.

Forty-one cases have been contained in the Chinese city of Wuhan – home to 11million people – since December and dozens more have been hospitalised as suspected patients.

Among the 41 confirmed cases, 12 people have recovered and been discharged, five people are serious and under treatment, two people have died and the rest are in stable condition.

A statement revealed today that a second death was declared at 12.45am on January 15 after medical treatment failed.

Xiong, whose second name has not been revealed, fell ill on December 31, 2019. His condition worsened on January 4 and he was transferred to the Jinyintan Hospital of Wuhan.

He had severe cardiomyopathy – a heart condition, abnormal kidney function, and seriously damaged organs. It is not clear if these were complications of the virus or underlying conditions.

The first death, a 61-year-old man, was reported by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission last week.

He died on January 9, having been the first person hospitalised after suffering shortness of breath and severe pneumonia.

The man, who also suffered from abdominal tumours and chronic liver disease, had been a frequent customer at a seafood market on Wuhan's outskirts.

Several other patients worked at the seafood market in Wuhan's suburbs. It has since been closed and investigated as a potential source of the strain.

Although the virus was initially thought to be transmitted by animals, the WHO said there is now 'limited evidence' of human-to-human transmission.

The first identified case outside of the country in Thailand last week raised concerns the virus could cross borders.

The woman, a Chinese national who was on holiday in Thailand, was quarantined on January 8. She was able to return home to China in a stable condition.

Japan's government said on January 16 a man treated for pneumonia after returning from China had tested positive for the new coronavirus.

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust said: 'News of a case in Japan is extremely concerning - but it is not surprising that we are starting to hear of more cases in other countries.

'It is possible that the often mild symptoms from this coronavirus may be masking the true numbers of people who have been infected, or the extent of person to person transmission.

'It is probable that we are looking at patients being affected over a number of days from multiple animals sources and with some degree of human to human transmission.

'Ongoing research, with prompt and full data sharing between the teams now working together across China and globally on building the information, is vital to ensuring the correct response to this outbreak.'

Countries in Asia, including Japan, Thailand and Singapore, have stepped-up surveillance at airports in response to the flurry of cases.

Temperature scanners identify people who have a fever, who will then be separated and given more thorough tests.

A surge of tourists are expected in the coming days, as hundreds of millions of people in China travel around January 25 for Chinese New Year.

Dr Farrar said: 'Wuhan is a major hub and with travel being a huge part of the fast approaching Chinese New Year, the concern level must remain high.'

Hospitals have also been alerted of the potential threat of spread. Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit, said hospitals worldwide had been given guidance about infection control.

This includes the potential of 'super spreading' in health care settings, which is when a few ill patients can transmit the virus to dozens at a time.

Discussing the potential spread of the virus, Dr Kerkhove said: 'This is something on our radar, it is possible, we need to prepare ourselves.'

Some hospitals in China have already been directed to report cases of fever in anyone who has travelled to Wuhan in the past 14 days.

~~~~~~~~~~

GERMAN RESEARCHERS DEVELOP FIRST TEST FOR NEW VIRUS IN CHINA

Scientists scrambling to contain the outbreak of the mystery virus have developed the first diagnostic test for doctors.

Virologists in Germany claim the test will allow laboratories to diagnose the 'novel' coronavirus in a 'very short period of time'.

World Health Organization chiefs will share details of the test with countries around the world, amid fears cases may crop up in other nations.

Laboratories can order a molecule from the team AT Berlin's Charite hospital to compare patient samples with that of an infected adult.

Following its online publication by the WHO, the test protocol will now serve as a guideline for laboratories.

Dr Christian Drosten, a virologist at the institute, said: 'We have just started receiving orders and are now starting to post the molecule.'

So far, doctors have only been able to perform a general virus test and then had to sequence and interpret the genome, which takes time.
 

forpetesake

Contributing Member
Hope this isn't true:

German expert: Wuhan "new coronavirus" is SARS

Beijing Time: 2020-01-16 09:55
...
On Wednesday (January 15), "Voice of Germany" quoted Berlin virus research expert Christian Drosten, saying that the new virus that recently caused "unknown pneumonia" in China is a SARS virus , similar to 2002/03 the virus when SARS broke out. Drosten is the director of the Institute of Virology at Charité Berlin, the largest university-affiliated teaching hospital in Europe.

Drosten pointed out that the new virus and SARS virus are "the same virus, but the morphology is different." The main difference is that the virus has different proteins attached to human cells.
...
The SARS virus is susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast. When the SARS outbreak occurred in 2003, it was difficult for the medical profession to prevent and control the virus because of the constantly changing form of the virus, and it was also very difficult to develop a corresponding vaccine.

Professor Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the illness, severity, and mortality of the new virus in Wuhan can be used as a reference for SARS in 2003. He said that SARS also experienced a rapid mutation of the virus that year, followed by a large-scale "super spread" process.

德专家:武汉“新型冠状病毒”就是SARS
 

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thank you forpetesake. Here is the article you linked to in chinese after google translate:

(fair use applies)

German expert: Wuhan "new coronavirus" is SARS
German expert: Wuhan new coronavirus is SARS
Beijing Time: 2020-01-16 09:55

[New Tang Dynasty Beijing Time, January 15, 2020] At the end of last year, news of a SARS outbreak in the Wuhan medical and nursing community was officially forced to acknowledge the epidemic, but insisted it was "unknown pneumonia", and then announced the so-called " new coronavirus ". Hong Kong experts point out that the virus gene is nearly 80% identical to the SARS virus . German experts have even more bluntly stated that this is a SARS virus.

On Wednesday (January 15), "Voice of Germany" quoted Berlin virus research expert Christian Drosten, saying that the new virus that recently caused "unknown pneumonia" in China is a SARS virus , similar to 2002/03 The kind of virus when SARS broke out. Drosten is the director of the Virology Institute at Charité Berlin, the largest university-affiliated teaching hospital in Europe.

Drosten pointed out that this new virus and SARS virus are "the same virus, but the morphology is different." The main difference is that the virus has different proteins attached to human cells.

SARS is the abbreviation of "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome" in English. The scientific name is "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome". SARS has a high fatality rate because it is likely to cause respiratory failure. The Chinese Communist Party officially called SARS "atypical pneumonia", which is considered to be a "reducing people's panic mood."
A few days ago, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced the genetic sequencing of one of the cases of "unknown pneumonia" infection in Wuhan. Several Hong Kong experts said that their genes are nearly 80% identical to SARS coronavirus.

The SARS virus is susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast. When the SARS outbreak occurred in 2003, it was difficult for the medical community to prevent and control the virus because of the constantly changing form of the virus, and it was also very difficult to develop a corresponding vaccine.

Professor Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, recently pointed out that the illness, severity, and mortality of the new virus in Wuhan can all draw on SARS in 2003. He said that SARS also experienced a rapid mutation of the virus that year, followed by a large-scale "super spread" process.

News of the outbreak in Wuhan first came out of the medical and health care industry in Wuhan at the end of December. Several sources at the time stated that several hospitals and medical testing agencies had confirmed the SARS outbreak in the South China seafood market in Wuhan. A medical test report posted on the Internet clearly shows that SARS coronavirus has been detected.

Following the news, officials were forced to acknowledge the outbreak but insisted it was "unknown pneumonia" and denied SARS. At the same time, the patients were quickly and uniformly isolated, and the "rumor spreaders" on the Internet were suppressed. A few days later, the official announcement was that the epidemic came from a " new coronavirus " and an example of a "new virus" gene sequence that was highly similar to the SARS virus was announced.

At present, Wuhan officials have finally acknowledged that the virus may spread through "family gatherings" after insisting that "no obvious evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found." The WHO has also said that the new virus could be passed "to a limited extent" from person to person.

After the outbreak in Wuhan, suspected cases have been found in Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand. Thailand has been diagnosed with "new coronavirus". These cases worry experts that the epidemic has long been transmitted from person to person. Some of the patients in Wuhan and patients diagnosed in Thailand have not been to the South China Seafood Market.

At present, the new epidemic situation has not appeared similar to the SARS outbreak in 2003, but experts said that it should not be taken lightly.

Virus expert Drosten estimates that an unknown virus like this triggers an outbreak in humans, which occurs approximately every 10 years. For viruses that are susceptible to mutation, the infection chain is a "testing ground" for the virus.

Recently, Wuhan officially announced the first case of death caused by the new virus. The cause of death was "respiratory failure", similar to SARS that year. Given that the Chinese Communist Party's official figures have always been very "political," the outside world has expressed doubts about the illness and death figures released in Wuhan.

For the Chinese Communist Party officials, the importance of "maintaining stability" in public opinion has always been higher than the interests and even the lives of the people. One of the main reasons for the global SARS outbreak that year was the CCP's concealment of the epidemic , which failed to raise the international community's vigilance in advance. After the outbreak in Wuhan this year, Hong Kong and Taiwan and some Asian countries where Chinese people gathered learned the lessons of the year and quickly strengthened their epidemic prevention measures to prevent a major outbreak.

(Reporter Zheng Gusheng Comprehensive Reporting / Responsible Editor: Ming Xuan)
 

forpetesake

Contributing Member
Thanks Heliobas. Whatever it is, it looks like a nasty virus!


Thank you forpetesake. Here is the article you linked to in chinese after google translate:

(fair use applies)

German expert: Wuhan "new coronavirus" is SARS
German expert: Wuhan new coronavirus is SARS
Beijing Time: 2020-01-16 09:55

[New Tang Dynasty Beijing Time, January 15, 2020] At the end of last year, news of a SARS outbreak in the Wuhan medical and nursing community was officially forced to acknowledge the epidemic, but insisted it was "unknown pneumonia", and then announced the so-called " new coronavirus ". Hong Kong experts point out that the virus gene is nearly 80% identical to the SARS virus . German experts have even more bluntly stated that this is a SARS virus.

On Wednesday (January 15), "Voice of Germany" quoted Berlin virus research expert Christian Drosten, saying that the new virus that recently caused "unknown pneumonia" in China is a SARS virus , similar to 2002/03 The kind of virus when SARS broke out. Drosten is the director of the Virology Institute at Charité Berlin, the largest university-affiliated teaching hospital in Europe.

Drosten pointed out that this new virus and SARS virus are "the same virus, but the morphology is different." The main difference is that the virus has different proteins attached to human cells.

SARS is the abbreviation of "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome" in English. The scientific name is "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome". SARS has a high fatality rate because it is likely to cause respiratory failure. The Chinese Communist Party officially called SARS "atypical pneumonia", which is considered to be a "reducing people's panic mood."
A few days ago, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced the genetic sequencing of one of the cases of "unknown pneumonia" infection in Wuhan. Several Hong Kong experts said that their genes are nearly 80% identical to SARS coronavirus.

The SARS virus is susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast. When the SARS outbreak occurred in 2003, it was difficult for the medical community to prevent and control the virus because of the constantly changing form of the virus, and it was also very difficult to develop a corresponding vaccine.

Professor Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, recently pointed out that the illness, severity, and mortality of the new virus in Wuhan can all draw on SARS in 2003. He said that SARS also experienced a rapid mutation of the virus that year, followed by a large-scale "super spread" process.

News of the outbreak in Wuhan first came out of the medical and health care industry in Wuhan at the end of December. Several sources at the time stated that several hospitals and medical testing agencies had confirmed the SARS outbreak in the South China seafood market in Wuhan. A medical test report posted on the Internet clearly shows that SARS coronavirus has been detected.

Following the news, officials were forced to acknowledge the outbreak but insisted it was "unknown pneumonia" and denied SARS. At the same time, the patients were quickly and uniformly isolated, and the "rumor spreaders" on the Internet were suppressed. A few days later, the official announcement was that the epidemic came from a " new coronavirus " and an example of a "new virus" gene sequence that was highly similar to the SARS virus was announced.

At present, Wuhan officials have finally acknowledged that the virus may spread through "family gatherings" after insisting that "no obvious evidence of human-to-human transmission has been found." The WHO has also said that the new virus could be passed "to a limited extent" from person to person.

After the outbreak in Wuhan, suspected cases have been found in Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand. Thailand has been diagnosed with "new coronavirus". These cases worry experts that the epidemic has long been transmitted from person to person. Some of the patients in Wuhan and patients diagnosed in Thailand have not been to the South China Seafood Market.

At present, the new epidemic situation has not appeared similar to the SARS outbreak in 2003, but experts said that it should not be taken lightly.

Virus expert Drosten estimates that an unknown virus like this triggers an outbreak in humans, which occurs approximately every 10 years. For viruses that are susceptible to mutation, the infection chain is a "testing ground" for the virus.

Recently, Wuhan officially announced the first case of death caused by the new virus. The cause of death was "respiratory failure", similar to SARS that year. Given that the Chinese Communist Party's official figures have always been very "political," the outside world has expressed doubts about the illness and death figures released in Wuhan.

For the Chinese Communist Party officials, the importance of "maintaining stability" in public opinion has always been higher than the interests and even the lives of the people. One of the main reasons for the global SARS outbreak that year was the CCP's concealment of the epidemic , which failed to raise the international community's vigilance in advance. After the outbreak in Wuhan this year, Hong Kong and Taiwan and some Asian countries where Chinese people gathered learned the lessons of the year and quickly strengthened their epidemic prevention measures to prevent a major outbreak.

(Reporter Zheng Gusheng Comprehensive Reporting / Responsible Editor: Ming Xuan)
 

SuElPo

Veteran Member
My sister has been back to her doctor several times for breathing treatments, steroids, and other meds, but it keeps hanging on. She continues to go to work. Her doctor said it acts like the flu but isn't.
She works at Oak Ridge. I worry about her.
Susan
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Geez... I am so glad I don't work at a place that saw 10 million out of state visitors a year. I caught some funk that nearly killed me almost every year. Haven't worked there for a decade, now, and have been REALLY sick 1 time since...
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Get your sister to take boron. Its a mineral and controls calcium in the body. If the Calcium magnesium level is right in the body then your cell oxygen levels are also. Mine is 100% at 69.

Breathing exercisers are useless without your calcium and magnesium levels being right.
 

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
(fair use applies)

Press release
16.01.2020
Researchers develop first diagnostic test for novel coronavirus in China

A joint press release by Charité and the DZIF

Researchers from the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF) at Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin have developed a new laboratory assay to detect the novel Chinese coronavirus. The assay protocol has now been published by WHO as a guideline for diagnostic detection. The new assay enables suspected cases to be tested quickly.

The coronavirus, which first emerged in Wuhan, China, and can cause severe pneumonia, can now be detected in the laboratory. Developed by a group of DZIF researchers working under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten, Director of the Institute of Virology on Campus Charité Mitte, the world’s first diagnostic test for the coronavirus has now been made publicly available. Following its online publication by the WHO, the test protocol will now serve as a guideline for laboratories. An international consortium is currently conducting a joint evaluation study.

“Now that this diagnostic test is widely available, I expect that it won’t be long before we are able to reliably diagnose suspected cases. This will also help scientists understand whether the virus is capable of spreading from human to human,” explains Prof. Drosten. He adds: “This is an important step in our fight against this new virus.”

Background

Previous successes recorded by Prof. Drosten and his research groups include the development of novel Zika virus tests and the development of a standard test for the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) pathogen, which is now being used worldwide. A BIH Professor and one the co-discoverers of the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) virus in 2003, Prof. Drosten was also responsible for developing and making available the first diagnostic test for SARS. The next few years will see members of the DZIF’s ‘Virus detection and preparedness’ group at Charité continue their efforts to increase our preparedness for the emergence of new viruses.
 

COelf

Contributing Member
Thanks, Mixin. I hope I did the image right from auspice
sars-like-covc=host.pngsars-like-covc=host.png
It is being said that the coronavirus is like SARS and it has very few genetic similarities. I do not see it as being anything like SARS genetically. It seems this is most dangerous because of the infectivity. Coronaviruses are rapid reproducers and can spread through a population in days. The common cold is a coronavirus. I would say the reason the CDC and WHO are warning about this virus is that it is a rapid spreader and people with pre-existing medical conditions (especially respiratory conditions) are at risk of severe complications.
For any coronavirus use bleach to clean areas where people may have coughed or sneezed. Wash your hands often and for at least 20 seconds soaping. I use a bit of bleach in our dishwater and we haven't had a cold in many years.
Tamiflu can shorten the duration of a cold so it could shorten the duration of this coronavirus. I think I would at least try it and elderberry too. Can't hurt. The main thing to do is prevention from getting the virus and if you do get it then prevent secondary problems like pneumonia.
This is only my opinion and someone more learned may have other ideas.
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
With seven people are in critical condition out of 50+ known cases, that seems serious if you catch it, but what if many just got a lighter case and figure it was the normal seasonal cold and weren't counted? How many real cases are there? Not to mention that if this thing mutates, then the burn rate of hair would increase dramatically. It's getting to be almost a yearly occurrence for a new virus to show up. One of these days, there'll be a population reset and it'll be brutal. We're on borrowed time for that historically. Enjoy your day! :D
So if it does become widespread, the problem will be the large number of sick that can not be taken care of. That now makes sense as to why this is coming up. I was only looking at the number of dead.
 

TxGal

Day by day

US Begins Airport Screenings After Second Patient With SARS-Like Pneumonia Dies In China

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/17/2020 - 18:05

The US will begin screening airline passengers beginning Friday after a SARS-like pneumonia outbreak in central China has claimed a second life after a 69-year-old man died on Wednesday, according to the Straits Times.

"To further protect the health of the American public during the emergence of this novel coronavirus, CDC is beginning entry screening at three ports of entry," said CDC official Martin Cetron, adding "We're expecting that the screening over the next couple of weeks could include as many as 5000 people" starting Friday night.

The three airports are; San Francisco International, New York's JFK, and Los Angeles International.

The second death from the new coronavirus occurred at the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital in the Hubei province. He had been ill approximately two weeks before experiencing multi-organ system failure, according to Bloomberg, citing a Thursday statement by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

As of Friday, the city has reported 45 cases of the coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV. According to the report, five patients are in critical condition, twelve have been cured and discharged, and two have died.

Authorities in Japan reported a case Thursday in a resident of Kanagawa prefecture aged in his 30s, who had spent time with an infected person in Wuhan. That’s the second time someone outside China was found to be infected with the novel coronavirus, which has captured international attention because of similarities with the one that sparked Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, 17 years ago.
Unlike SARS, which killed almost 800 people, the new virus doesn’t appear to spread easily between people. Much remains to be understood about the new coronavirus, which was first identified in China earlier this month, the World Health Organization said in a statement Thursday in response to the case in Japan. -Bloomberg
It is unknown how the virus is spread, however it is believed to be concentrated among a Wuhan fish market which carries other meat as well.
 

naturallysweet

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Get your sister to take boron. Its a mineral and controls calcium in the body. If the Calcium magnesium level is right in the body then your cell oxygen levels are also. Mine is 100% at 69.

Breathing exercisers are useless without your calcium and magnesium levels being right.
I started adding some borax and Epsom salt to my bath water a few weeks ago to see if it helps. I feel so much better. so I'm gonna keep doing it.
 

Heliobas Disciple

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thousands of cases makes a lot more sense than less than a hundred cases in light of the response by WHO and the level of screenings going on.
HD


(fair use applies)

'Hundreds' likely affected by Chinese virus: researchers
AFP January 17, 2020

London (AFP) - The number of people infected by a mystery SARS-like virus that has killed two people in China is likely hundreds more than officially reported, researchers have said.

Chinese authorities have said pneumonia linked to the virus has hit at least 41 people in the country, with the outbreak centred around a seafood market in the central city of Wuhan.

But a paper published Friday by scientists with the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London said the number of those affected in the city was likely to be well over a thousand.

The scientists at the Centre -- which advises bodies including the World Health Organization -- said they estimated a "total of 1,723 cases" in Wuhan would have been infected as of January 12.

The researchers took the number of cases reported outside China so far -- two in Thailand and one in Japan -- to infer how many were likely infected in the city, based on international flight traffic data from Wuhan's airport.

"For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported," Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the authors of the report, told the BBC.

"I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," adding, however, that it was "too early to be alarmist".

"People should be considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far," he added, saying it was "unlikely" that animal exposure was the main source of infection.

Two people are known to have been killed by the virus, a pathogen from the same family as the deadly SARS virus -- even as health authorities around the world sought to assure the public that the overall risk of infection remained low.

Authorities in Hong Kong have stepped up detection measures, including rigorous temperature checkpoints for inbound travellers from the Chinese mainland.

The US said from Friday it would begin screening flights arriving from Wuhan at San Francisco airport and New York's JFK -- which both receive direct flights -- as well as Los Angeles, where many flights connect.
 
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