WAR Jammu/Kashmir main thread

[danielboon]

Daniel, what do you think? This escalation has a special feel to it. Not a good feel, I will say that.

I think this could blow over . Well we can hope

 

[Housecarl]

Here's hoping the Indian Service Rifle isn't an example of how the rest of their military operates.

Well between their past procurement kerfuffle's involving overseas equipment and domestic programs this should be interesting.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://soldiersystems.net/2019/02/1...0-sig-rifles-to-be-deployed-with-indian-army/

SIG SAUER Announces Over 72,400 SIG Rifles to be Deployed with Indian Army

NEWINGTON, N.H., (February 20, 2019) –SIG SAUER, Inc. is pleased to announce the Government of India, Ministry of Defense has officially contracted with SIG SAUER to build and deliver 72,400 SIG716 rifles for its frontline infantry soldiers. The Indian Army, the second largest standing army in the world with more than 1.2 million active troops, is currently undergoing a comprehensive firearms procurement process to advance the capabilities of the Indian Army’s infantrymen.

“This is the first large firearms procurement of the Indian Government in decades, and the explicit mission for this tender was to modernize the infantry troopers of the Indian Army with the best rifle available,” began Ron Cohen, President and CEO, SIG SAUER, Inc. “We competed in an open tender with small arms manufacturers from around the world. The SIG716 rifle underwent a comprehensive and exhaustive testing and evaluation process where it outperformed the competition, and was ultimately chosen, and met all the criteria, as the best rifle to modernize the Indian Army.”

The SIG716 is an enhanced AR platform featuring a 16-inch barrel, M-LOK™ handguard, and a 6-position telescoping stock.

“The global importance of this contract for SIG SAUER is far reaching based on the size, location, and economic strength of India in the global market. We are very proud, and honored that the SIG716 was chosen for use by the fighting forces of the Indian Army, and we are looking forward to developing a strong partnership with India’s Ministry of Defense,” added Cohen.

SIG SAUER will build the SIG716 rifles for the Indian Army in New Hampshire.

 

[danielboon]

Breaking; attack mastermind killed in encounter
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
@IntelCrab
The cross-LoC bus service from #Poonch in Jammu & Kashmir to #Pakistan has been suspended.
11:25 February 17 2019

 

[Melodi]

Breaking; attack mastermind killed in encounter
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
@IntelCrab
The cross-LoC bus service from #Poonch in Jammu & Kashmir to #Pakistan has been suspended.
11:25 February 17 2019

In a weird way, if this is true; it might help form the basis of a stand down if the participates are still at the point where they really want to step back from the brink.

We can hope...

 

[Bean Pole]

@rajshekharTOI

The #Pulwama encounter can be termed one of the biggest and most fierce face-off between terrorists and security forces in Kashmir. Started at 1am. Over 17 hours now..

6:15 am 2/18/19

 

[Bean Pole]

manish prasad
‏ @followmkp
2h2 hours ago

18 hrs long operation in #Pinglan of #Pulwama.3 Terrorist killed by @crpfindia @adgpi @JmuKmrPolice.
-Hilal, Local of Pulwama
- Kamran, JeM Commander, Pakistani.
- 3 rd Terrorist suspected to be #Rashid @ #Ghazi from Pakistan. #PulwamaPayback #PulwamaRevenge .- @ChinarcorpsIA

 

[Bean Pole]

Iran: Will ‘immediately intervene’ if Pakistan doesn’t eliminate terrorists
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 18 February 2019

Chief of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, warned on Monday that Tehran will intervene if terrorist presence in Pakistan is not addressed and eliminated “immediately”.

The Iranian news agency, IRNA, quoted Bagheri as saying that if training camps and their activities in some areas of Pakistan continue “for any reason whatsoever,” Iran will immediately intervene.

Bagheri said that the country will exercise this option if “it needs to” as it is Tehran’s “international and legitimate right” as per the United Nations Charter.

“Pakistan bears great responsibility in terms of defending its borders and purging neighboring lands with Iran from terror groups,” he said.
Bagheri said that terrorists set up secret bases in Tehran. He also accused Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of training, equipping and organizing these groups in order to destabilize Iran.

Commenting on last week’s suicide car bomb, that killed at least 27 members of the Revolutionary Guard, Bagheri said that talks with Pakistani leaders have already started.

He said that a team of Pakistani officials visited Iran and discussions are taking place with the Pakistani leadership.
“We asked the Pakistani authorities to either purge the territories where terrorist groups are stationed or to allow Iranian forces to enter these (areas) and confront them,” Bagheri said.

He said that the Pakistani army started an operation in the Balochistan region on Sunday but added that these efforts may not yield the desired results. As a result, Iran and Pakistan continue to discuss ways to ensure security.
During another meeting with the country’s armed forces personnel in Qom, Bagheri spoke of Iran’s capability to tackle such threats. He said that all of Iran’s borders are secure and the country’s military and defense units are ready to respond to any threat even if it is kilometers away from its borders.

Last Update: Monday, 18 February 2019 KSA 18:09 - GMT 15:09

Link: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/Ne...e-if-terror-continues-from-Pakistan-side.html

 

[danielboon]

Breaking; attack mastermind killed in encounter
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ
@IntelCrab
The cross-LoC bus service from #Poonch in Jammu & Kashmir to #Pakistan has been suspended.
11:25 February 17 2019

EndGameWW3
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
‘Mastermind’ of Kashmir suicide car bomb attack killed after 12-hour siege — RT World News

‘Mastermind’ of Kashmir suicide car bomb attack killed after 12-hour siege — RT World News
rt.com
1:19 PM · Feb 18, 2019 ·
4https://t.co/eNpMiuJFIO?amp=1
Retweets
1
Like
April Porter
April Porter
@ConnieNervegas
·
7m
Replying to
@EndGameWW3
Is it just me or is the perfect storm for wwiii currently coming together?

 

[danielboon]

EndGameWW3
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Millions Could Perish: 5 Weapons India Would Use in a War Against Pakistan

Millions Could Perish: 5 Weapons India Would Use in a War Against
nationalinterest.org
2:00 PM · Feb 18, 2019 · https://t.co/eNQLPArTrZ?amp=1

 

[Bean Pole]

ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ ᴄʀᴀʙ Retweeted
ANI
‏Verified account @ANI
6m6 minutes ago

Rajasthan: Bikaner DM issues a list of orders, effective immediately, u/s 144 CrPc in light of #PulwamaTerrorAttack. He order Pakistani citizens to leave the dist within 48 hrs, also prohibits hotels in Bikaner border area from allowing Pak citizens. Order applicable for 2 months

 

[Freeholder]

This is getting interesting, and not in a good way. It appears that the Saudi's are allied with Pakistan, which is enemies with India and, now, Iran. Israel is also now allied with the Saudi's and most of the other countries in that region, believe it or not (it's quiet, but evidently they are all deciding that Iran is a common enemy, so 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend.' At least as long as it suits their purposes.), and just had a big conference in Warsaw this weekend over what to do about Iran. Russia, Iran, and Turkey are squabbling over Syria -- what to call it, how to divide it up, and so on. Iran keeps shipping weapons and weapons materials into Syria, specifically Damascus, and the Israeli's are bound and determined to destroy said materials.

There's a good person to watch: https://www.youtube.com/user/beholdisrael/videos The guy is an Israeli Jew who believes in Jesus Christ; he's also a major in the IDF Reserves. For several reasons he's got a lot of contacts. It's been very interesting getting his updates (and I really like his Bible teaching -- he's very doctrinally solid). He was talking a bit about the climate stuff in the most recent one, and I think we could educate him a bit on the issues there, though he's solidly against anthropogenic climate change. Anyway, he does post frequent updates on what's going on in that region, specifically as it pertains to Israel and surrounding countries, so take a look.

Kathleen

 

[Bean Pole]

This is getting interesting, and not in a good way. It appears that the Saudi's are allied with Pakistan, which is enemies with India and, now, Iran. Israel is also now allied with the Saudi's and most of the other countries in that region, believe it or not (it's quiet, but evidently they are all deciding that Iran is a common enemy, so 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend.' At least as long as it suits their purposes.), and just had a big conference in Warsaw this weekend over what to do about Iran. Russia, Iran, and Turkey are squabbling over Syria -- what to call it, how to divide it up, and so on. Iran keeps shipping weapons and weapons materials into Syria, specifically Damascus, and the Israeli's are bound and determined to destroy said materials.

There's a good person to watch: https://www.youtube.com/user/beholdisrael/videos The guy is an Israeli Jew who believes in Jesus Christ; he's also a major in the IDF Reserves. For several reasons he's got a lot of contacts. It's been very interesting getting his updates (and I really like his Bible teaching -- he's very doctrinally solid). He was talking a bit about the climate stuff in the most recent one, and I think we could educate him a bit on the issues there, though he's solidly against anthropogenic climate change. Anyway, he does post frequent updates on what's going on in that region, specifically as it pertains to Israel and surrounding countries, so take a look.

Kathleen

Kathleen, we are in agreement - on two things here. The scenario on the ground is definitely getting interesting - and certainly not in a good way - is right! We seem to be ramping up to a kickoff. I don't have a good feeling about it. India & Pakistan have come very close to nuclear war several times. Now that Iran is warning Pakistan too - it's a tinder box. The top Saudi was just in Pakistan & I believe has left. My feeling is this - the global elite know that the economy is on it's last legs, so they need an excuse. That excuse is war. If it dosn't start here, it could start in VZ on 2/23.

I also agree with you about Amir S. of Behold Israel. His teaching is solid and I appreciate his updates. Importantly, it is imperative to know our Savior at this time. Keep praying!

 

[Bean Pole]

India Weighs Military Strikes In Kashmir After Deadliest Terror Attack In 30 Years

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/18/2019 - 19:00

After a relative lull that was punctuated by a handful of small terror attacks and military exercises along the line of control in divided Kashmir in 2018, tensions between South Asia's two nuclear armed neighbors - India and Pakistan - are escalating once again in the wake of a suicide car bombing that killed 44 Indian paramilitary police officers in the restive border region, the deadliest attack in the three decades of insurgency in Kashmir.

According to the Financial Times, the relationship between the neighboring countries grew increasingly strained over the weekend as India contemplated a military response to the attack, carried out by Pakistani terrorist group Jaish e-Mohammad, a group that India believes has long had at least the tacit support of the Pakistani military. In a sign that the region could be headed for a reemergence of the tit-for-tat attacks that punctuated the early years of the administration of Indian Prime Minister Nahrendra Modi, India stripped Pakistan of its most favored nation status after the attack, leading to an immediate 200% tariff hike.

Already, Indian military sources told the FT that Modi - who is facing a close election in the coming months, and is likely seeking to burnish his hardline Hindu nationalist credentials - is considering whether to order "stand off" strikes that would involve deploying fighter jets to fire missiles into the Pakistani-controlled side of Kashmir, as Modi has vowed to "avenge every tear" shed after last week's attack. Analysts have said he will be feeling pressure to push for a military response.

In a series of public speeches while inaugurating a new public works project before upcoming parliamentary elections, Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, continued to express fury at last week’s attack. He vowed to “avenge every tear” and said that India’s military had been given a free hand to decide on an appropriate response.

"The fire that is raging in your hearts is in my heart too," Mr Modi told a huge crowd in Bihar on Sunday. The previous day, Mr Modi declared that "how, when, where and who will punish the killers and their promoters will be decided by our forces, who are capable of dealing with the situation."

Indian security forces are reportedly considering potential responses, including “stand-off” strikes which involve using air force planes to fire missiles into Pakistani-held territory from across the line of control that divides Muslim-majority Kashmir between the two countries.
Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have been working with western powers to try and convince them to restrain India. But with the US's relationship with Pakistan also in a state of deterioration under the Trump administration, it's unclear exactly how effective those efforts will be. In a tweet sent over the weekend, NSA John Bolton warned that Pakistan "must crack down on JeM and all terrorists operating from its territory."


John Bolton
@AmbJohnBolton



I expressed condolences to NSA Doval yesterday for the reprehensible terrorist attack on India. Pakistan must crack down on JeM and all terrorists operating from its territory. Countries should uphold UNSC responsibilities to deny safe haven and support for terrorists @nsaajit

6:12 AM - Feb 16, 2019


New Delhi has accused Pakistan of providing JeM with "full freedom" to operate, and is demanding that the government in Islamabad take immediate and "verifiable" steps to crack down on the group. Pakistan, meanwhile, has denied any responsibility and instead blamed the attack on Indian intelligence lapses.

Analysts have warned that the situation is tense and risks "dangerous escalation".

"He is basically promising a pretty significant retaliatory strike," said Vipin Narang, professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "All the signs are that they are considering some sort of stand-off strike from across the LOC into Pakistani targets. The risk is that Modi miscalculates how far he can go without provoking a significant Pakistani response." Pakistani troops are on a heightened state of alert along the de facto border even as a senior Pakistani foreign ministry official said diplomats were lobbying western countries to “restrain India from a military offensive."

It's worth remembering that, should a military conflict break out between the two neighboring powers, it could quickly escalate to nuclear war. Because while India has pledged never to use its nuclear weapons in a first strike response, Pakistan's military doctrine states that it wouldn't hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons if attacked by India, which enjoys far superior conventional firepower.
And with the US increasingly unsympathetic to Islamabad, it would be presumably fall to China and Russia to ensure peace in the region.

Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...ashmir-after-deadliest-terror-attack-30-years

 

[Doc1]

The Cuban Missile Crisis was caused by Soviet nuclear-armed missiles located in Cuba. The US believed that having nuclear missiles only 90 miles from Miami posed an intolerable threat to the United States because the American response time would be measured only in minutes, instead of the approximately half-hour that missiles launched from the Soviet Union would require to hit US targets. Similarly - though lesser known - the US had nuclear ballistic missiles based in Turkey, which posed a similar threat to the USSR. That crisis was resolved by the Soviets removing their missiles from Cuba and the US removing its missiles from Turkey. During this period, submarine-launched ballistic missiles were being perfected by both sides and this presented yet another dimension to nuclear warfare. The US responded by laying massive (and expensive) acoustic sound detection networks in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to detect Soviet submarines. The point here is that every technological advance that reduced nuclear warning times resulted in increased tensions and massive spending programs to attempt to counter the other side's developments. Today, several nations have ballistic missile submarines and both the methods of detection and countermeasures are amongst these nation's most closely-guarded secrets.

This relates to the Indian/Pakistani situation because the nations share a common border and - outside of electronic intelligence and monitoring - there is effectively no practical time window for either nation to respond to a nuclear missile attack crossing its borders. Due to its larger land mass, India would have a slightly longer time window before Pakistani missiles hit more distant targets, but important targets such as Dehli, the national capitol, are relatively close to Pakistan. Pakistan, being a comparatively narrow country, would have very little warning and a nuclear war could effectively be over before more than a handful of people in leadership positions were aware that it had started.

Leaders of both countries are aware of this and one can be sure it causes them sleepless nights.

Best regards
Doc

 

[Bean Pole]

The Cuban Missile Crisis was caused by Soviet nuclear-armed missiles located in Cuba. The US believed that having nuclear missiles only 90 miles from Miami posed an intolerable threat to the United States because the American response time would be measured only in minutes, instead of the approximately half-hour that missiles launched from the Soviet Union would require to hit US targets. Similarly - though lesser known - the US had nuclear ballistic missiles based in Turkey, which posed a similar threat to the USSR. That crisis was resolved by the Soviets removing their missiles from Cuba and the US removing its missiles from Turkey. During this period, submarine-launched ballistic missiles were being perfected by both sides and this presented yet another dimension to nuclear warfare. The US responded by laying massive (and expensive) acoustic sound detection networks in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to detect Soviet submarines. The point here is that every technological advance that reduced nuclear warning times resulted in increased tensions and massive spending programs to attempt to counter the other side's developments. Today, several nations have ballistic missile submarines and both the methods of detection and countermeasures are amongst these nation's most closely-guarded secrets.

This relates to the Indian/Pakistani situation because the nations share a common border and - outside of electronic intelligence and monitoring - there is effectively no practical time window for either nation to respond to a nuclear missile attack crossing its borders. Due to its larger land mass, India would have a slightly longer time window before Pakistani missiles hit more distant targets, but important targets such as Dehli, the national capitol, are relatively close to Pakistan. Pakistan, being a comparatively narrow country, would have very little warning and a nuclear war could effectively be over before more than a handful of people in leadership positions were aware that it had started.

Leaders of both countries are aware of this and one can be sure it causes them sleepless nights.

Best regards
Doc

Doc, thanks for that walk back in history and also your explanation of what is pertinent now. A fine line - a fine line indeed.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/indian-a...-spy-agency-involved-054029941--business.html

World

Indian commander says Pakistan spy agency involved in Kashmir bombing

By Zeba Siddiqui and Fayaz Bukhari, Reuters 43 minutes ago

SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) - India's top military commander in the disputed Kashmir region said on Tuesday Pakistan's main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency was involved in an attack last week on a security convoy claimed by a Pakistan-based militant group.

At least 40 paramilitary men were killed in the suicide car bombing on a Kashmir road on Thursday. The Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) militant group claimed responsibility.

India has accused Pakistan of being behind the attack and tension has escalated between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

Pakistan condemned the bombing and denied any complicity, and on Tuesday it appealed to the United Nations to intervene, in light of the deteriorating security situation.

Lieutenant-General K.J.S. Dhillon told reporters that the leaders behind the attack were being tracked, and it had been orchestrated from the Pakistani side of the border.

"It was being controlled from across by ISI and Pakistan and JeM commanders," he said.

Dhillon did not provide any proof for his accusation.

He said he could not be more specific about the investigation into the blast and the suspected role of the Pakistan military intelligence agency, except to note its close links with the Jaish.

"The JeM is a child of the Pakistan army, and the ISI. The attack was masterminded by Pakistan, ISI and JeM," he said in Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir state.

Pakistan demanded India conduct an open and credible investigation into the attack to back up its claims.

"Attributing it to Pakistan even before investigations is absurd," Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said in a letter to the U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres seeking U.N. involvement to lower tension.

"It is with a sense of urgency that I draw your attention to the deteriorating security situation in our region resulting from the threat of use of force against Pakistan by India," he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised a strong response to the attack which has caused outrage across the country and sparked calls for retribution.

India has long blamed Pakistan for the nearly 30-year revolt in Jammu and Kashmir, its only Muslim-majority state. Pakistan says it only provides moral and diplomatic support to the Kashmiri people in their struggle for self-determination.

Indian forces in Kashmir on Monday killed three militants, including the suspected organizer of the suicide bombing, officials said.

Jammu and Kashmir, a former princely state on the border between India and Pakistan, has been in dispute since the partition of India in 1947.

Control is split between the two countries but each claims the region in full.

The neighbors have fought three wars since 1947, two of them over Kashmir. They have fought countless skirmishes along their de facto border, which the United Nations monitors, in the Himalayan region.

(Reporting by Fayaz Bukhari and Zeba Siddique; Writing by Sanjeev Miglani; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

[Bean Pole]

Housecarl, with that accusation, it seems like India’s commander is searching for the “eleven” on the volume dial.

 

[The Mountain]

Forgot to mention in my speculation post that this attack has conveniently pushed several issues that put Modi in a bad light out of the news: India's current high unemployment rate, Modi's failure to build the promised Ram Mandir temple, and the bungled Rafale deal ( The Congress Party had negotiated a deal for 126 aircraft delivered with an option for 63 more, to be built cooperatively with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited HAL; Modi's people dropped the original deal, renegotiated for only 36 planes, and put Reliance Group in instead of HAL. Reliance is a consumer conglomerate that makes things like air conditioners, makeup, kitchen appliances etc).

The PM of Pakistan has just recently announced that if India can present evidence that Pakistani nationals were behind the attack, Pak gov will take action, but if India decides to strike Pak, Pak is ready for them.

DW says the Indian public is not taking Modi's inaction well. When the INC party was in power and things like this happened, the responsible ministers would almost immediately resign. That has not happened this time, despite a much larger failure. Indians are starting to stockpile supplies, as well, and there are rumors starting to circulate that India is going to shut down air traffic in and out of the country for four days in the near future when they finally take whatever action against Pak.

 

[Bean Pole]

The Mountain, thanks for that intel. Very telling that this is in the cards: "Indians are starting to stockpile supplies, as well, and there are rumors starting to circulate that India is going to shut down air traffic in and out of the country for four days in the near future when they finally take whatever action against Pak." Wow.

 

[The Mountain]

So far, most of this is just talk. There has been no indication yet that any of the embassies in Delhi have started shipping out non-essential personnel, though that may not come until after India conducts its initial strike (if they do). Indians are kind of susceptible to overreaction, so reports of stockpiling are not to be taken as indication that things are getting bad. Also, the air traffic thing is still pretty much just RUMINT. Despite a lot of bluster, Modi's administration has so far done very little actual responding. There has been a crackdown of sorts in the Pulwama region, with a few terrorists killed (along with 5 more Indian troops), but no mobilization, no redeployment of military assets, etc.

 

[Bean Pole]

Thanks again, The Mountain. Here's some 3 hour old news:


India TV
‏Verified account @indiatvnews
3h3 hours ago

#NewsAlert | Pakistan army violates ceasefire along the line of control at Sehar, Namb and Bhawani areas of LoC in Nowshera sector. Both small arms and mortar being used.

 

[Bean Pole]

From the PM of India:

Narendra Modi
✔
@narendramodi

India is delighted to welcome HRH Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.
10.8K
10:17 AM - Feb 19, 2019

A Times of India article says MBS is supposed to leave India @ 11:50 am India time Wednesday the 20th. The festivities should hold off until at least then.

 

[Housecarl]

Part of the "quiet" could be attributed, correctly or not, to the Indian military's espoused "Cold Start" Doctrine.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.economist.com/the-econo...1/what-is-indias-cold-start-military-doctrine

What is India’s “Cold Start” military doctrine?

Why is the chief of the army talking about its deterrence measures after years of official denials?

The Economist explains
Jan 31st 2017
by M.F.

LAST week India celebrated its 68th Republic Day, the highlight of which is an elaborate parade to show off India’s military might (pictured). Soldiers goose-stepped and tanks rolled down Rajpath, New Delhi’s main ceremonial thoroughfare, as India's president, Pranab Mukherjee, and this year’s guest of honour, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, looked on. Fighter jets screeched overhead. The annual display was particularly pointed this year, coming barely three weeks after Bipin Rawat, India’s new army chief, acknowledged in an interview the existence of the country’s “Cold Start” military doctrine. What is Cold Start and why did General Rawat, who took office on December 31st, mention it in public?

Cold Start is the name given to a limited-war strategy designed to seize Pakistani territory swiftly without, in theory, risking a nuclear conflict. It has its roots in an attack on India’s parliament in 2001, which was carried out by terrorist groups allegedly used as proxies by Pakistan’s powerful intelligence services (ISI). India’s response to the onslaught was a flop: by the time its lumbering Strike Corps were mobilised and positioned on the frontier, Pakistan had already bulked up its defences, raising both the costs of incursion and the risk that it would escalate into a nuclear conflict. Cold Start is an attempt to draw lessons from this: having nimbler, integrated units stationed closer to the border would allow India to inflict significant harm before international powers demanded a ceasefire; by pursuing narrow aims, it would also deny Pakistan a justification for triggering a nuclear strike. Yet India has refused to own up to the existence of the doctrine since it was first publicly discussed in 2004. Nor was its rumoured existence enough to stop Pakistani terrorists from launching devastating attacks in Mumbai in 2008, killing 164 people.

Register to read this article in full

------

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/60775111.cms

India's 'Cold Start' doctrine: All you need to know

TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Sep 21, 2017, 10.08 AM IST

What is India's 'Cold Start' doctrine?India's 'Cold War doctrine,' or 'Proactive Strategy'+ as the Indian Army calls it, is aimed at making swift and hard inroads into enemy territory, specifically Pakistan. To prevent the outbreak of a nuclear war, such strikes will be 'limited' and 'calibrated'.


How quickly can the strike be mobilized under this doctrine?
Enemy territory can be struck within 72-96 hours of the directive.


Why did India feel the need for such a strategy?
The idea for the 'Cold Start' doctrine was fuelled by Operation Parakram, launched after the terror attack on Parliament in December 2001.

The operation exposed major operational gaps in India's offensive power, including slow troop mobilisation along the border.

After the attack, Indian strike corps took almost a month to reach the border. This gave Pakistan enough time to take counter-measures, and for the US to pressurize the then-NDA government to back off.

In 2009, then-Army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor said that "a major leap in our approach to conduct of operations has been the successful firming-in of the 'Cold Start' strategy."

In January 2017, Army chief General Bipin Rawat said, "Future wars will be short and intense. So, one has to be prepared to move and mobilise fast."


How did the world react to news of India's 'Cold Start' doctrine?
Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, in 2016, reported that the country "views India's cold start doctrine as a real threat." The Indian strategy has "compelled Pakistan to take suitable deterrence measures," it quoted a Pakistani nuclear expert as saying.

At the fourth Nuclear Security Summit the same year, then-US President Obama cautioned India and Pakistan+ against "continually moving in the wrong direction," even as they develop military doctrines.


Pakistan's short-range nuclear weapons to counter India's 'Cold Start' doctrine: Abbasi

--

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...tart-doctrine-abbasi/articleshow/60773682.cms

Pakistan's short-range nuclear weapons to counter India's 'Cold Start' doctrine: Abbasi

PTI | Sep 21, 2017, 07.38 AM IST

NEW YORK: Pakistan Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said on Wednesday his country has developed short-range nuclear weapons to counter the 'Cold Start' doctrine+ adopted by the Indian Army.

Abbasi was also assertive of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals being safe and secure.

"We have a very robust and secure command-and-control system over our strategic nuclear assets. Time has proved that it's a process that is very secure. It's a process that has complete civilian oversight through the NCA," Abbasi said in response to a question at the Council on Foreign Relations, a top American think-tank.

The Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) of Pakistan is the authority responsible for command, control and operational decisions regarding the country's nuclear arsenals.

India's 'Cold Start' doctrine: All you need to know

"As far as tactical nuclear weapons (are concerned), we do not have any fielded tactical nuclear weapons. We have developed short-range nuclear weapons as a counter to the 'Cold Start' doctrine that India has developed+ . Again, those are in the same command-and-control authority that controls the other strategic weapons," he said.

Moderator David Sanger said Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world.

"There's no nuclear arsenal in the world that is growing faster. And there's no nuclear arsenal in the world, other than North Korea's, that tends to worry American more, because they worry about the safety of the arsenal. They worry about the command and control of the arsenal," Sanger said.

Abbasi said that the command-and-control systems they have in place are as secure as anybody else's in the world.

"The last 20 years are testament to that," Abbasi said in response to another question.

"So let there be no doubt that any extremist element or somebody like that can gain control of fissile material or a nuclear weapon. There is just no possibility of that. And it's time-tested, and it's a very secure system that has been put in place," he said.

"Pakistan is a responsible global citizen, and we've shown a responsibility on the ground with this huge war on terror that we've been fighting for the last 15 years," Abbasi said.

The Pakistan premier sought to dispel the notion surrounding the country's alleged inability to handle its nuclear programmes properly.

"We do have nuclear capability. There's no doubt about that. And we know how to handle nuclear waste. We had a nuclear program in the early '60s, one of the first countries in Asia to have a nuclear program. So if we've managed it for over 50-odd years, I think we can continue to manage it," he said.

 

[Bean Pole]

Thanks Housecarl. Great historical information. This tweet does not give me comfort:


EndGameWW3
‏ @EndGameWW3
14m14 minutes ago

Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan We won't think, we will retaliate if India attacks us.



Hmmm, don't ever let something as trivial as thinking get in the way. That would be stupid, right? Tick, tock.....

 

[Housecarl]

Thanks Housecarl. Great historical information. This tweet does not give me comfort:


EndGameWW3
‏ @EndGameWW3
14m14 minutes ago

Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan We won't think, we will retaliate if India attacks us.



Hmmm, don't ever let something as trivial as thinking get in the way. That would be stupid, right? Tick, tock.....

Also ecourages an "everything including the kichen sink" first strike on the part of India, never mind visa versa....

 

[Bean Pole]

Also ecourages an "everything including the kichen sink" first strike on the part of India, never mind visa versa....

You have that right Housecarl. Current time in Islamabad is 12:30 a.m. 12 hours until MBS exits. I'm thinking it's 24 hours until showtime.

 

[danielboon]

You have that right Housecarl. Current time in Islamabad is 12:30 a.m. 12 hours until MBS exits. I'm thinking it's 24 hours until showtime.

Well if it goes then expect all the hotspots to go right after it . Dangerous times for sure.

 

[danielboon]

Pulwama attack: Pakistan warns India against military action Pakistan has warned it will retaliate if India takes military action against it after a militant attack on Indian forces in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Prime Minister Imran Khan went on television to call on India to provide evidence to support its claims that Pakistan was involved.

India responded that Mr Khan was again making excuses.

More than 40 members of India's security forces died in Thursday's suicide bombing on their convoy.

Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad said it was behind it.

The attack has raised tensions between India and Pakistan, which have fought two wars and a limited conflict in the region and are both nuclear powers.

What did Khan say?
In his first comments addressing the attack, he said India should "stop blaming Pakistan without any proof or evidence" and urged Indian authorities to share any "actionable intelligence".

"If you think that you will launch any kind of attack on Pakistan, Pakistan will not just think about retaliation, Pakistan will retaliate," he said, adding that only dialogue could help solve issues in Kashmir.

Why India and Pakistan dispute Kashmir
Pulwama attack: What are Modi's options?
India has long accused Pakistan of backing militant separatists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Mr Khan, who took office last year, said his government was ready to co-operate with India in investigating the attack. But he also said Delhi should reflect on why Kashmiri youth had reached a point where they no longer feared death.

The prime minister said he had not addressed the attack earlier because of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's high-profile visit to Pakistan on Sunday and Monday.

How did India respond?
In a statement, the foreign ministry said that Mr Khan had failed to condemn the "heinous act" nor offer condolences to victims' families.

"It is a well-known fact that Jaish-e-Mohammad and its leader Masood Azhar are based in Pakistan. [This] should be sufficient proof for Pakistan to take action," the ministry said.

It said that past attacks in India attributed to Pakistan-based militants had not been investigated properly by Islamabad.

Mr Khan had also mentioned India's upcoming elections in the context of calls for retaliation against Pakistan - saying politicians believed strong action would boost votes.

The Indian foreign ministry said the insinuation was "regrettable", adding: "India's democracy is a model for the world which Pakistan would never understand."

Earlier, India's top military commander in Kashmir, Lt Gen KJS Dhillon, accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency of "controlling" the attack with Jaish-e-Mohammad commanders, but he provided no evidence.

The funerals driving youth to militancy
Viewpoint: How far might India go to 'punish' Pakistan?
"I'd request all the mothers in Kashmir to please request their sons who have joined terrorism to surrender and get back to the mainstream," he said. "Otherwise anyone who has picked up the gun will be killed."

The suicide bomber has been identified as a young man from the region. Correspondents say a significant number of young Kashmiris have joined militant groups in recent years.

Uncomfortable questions for Khan
By BBC Pakistan correspondent, Secunder Kermani, in Islamabad

When Imran Khan took office last year he said he wanted to improve relations with India, and that for every one step India took, Pakistan would take two.

The traditional wisdom in Pakistan is that the country's army hasn't wanted closer ties between the two. However, as the military seems supportive of Imran Khan's administration it had been hoped progress could now be made. In fact, over the past few months, Indian officials have been the ones more reluctant to pursue negotiations - probably because of the upcoming elections.

In his speech, Imran Khan said there was "a new mindset" in Pakistan, and that any militant group using Pakistani soil was an "enemy" of the country. He asked the Indian government what gain they thought Pakistan could hope to achieve from an attack like this.

But while his confident and measured speech will go down well domestically, uncomfortable questions remain about the state's relationship with Kashmir-focused militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad. While JeM is a banned organisation, many international observers believe Pakistani intelligence services allow it operate under the radar.How high are tensions?
Both India and Pakistan claim all of Muslim-majority Kashmir, but control only parts of it.

Thursday's bombing was the deadliest attack on Indian forces in the region for decades.So far India has focused on retaliation by economic and diplomatic means. It has revoked Pakistan's Most Favoured Nation trading status and raised customs duties to 200%.

Both countries have recalled top diplomats.

How else might India retaliate?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is facing an election later this year, has vowed a strong response and says he will give the military free rein.

The last time an attack on Indian forces close to this magnitude occurred in Kashmir was in 2016, when 19 soldiers were killed at a base. In response to that, India carried out "surgical strikes" which involved Indian soldiers crossing the de facto border to hit Pakistani posts.This time heavy snow in the region could make that kind of limited ground response impossible, analysts say. But there are fears that going further - with air strikes, for example - could lead to Pakistani retaliation and a significant escalation.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-47290107

 

[Bean Pole]

Well if it goes then expect all the hotspots to go right after it . Dangerous times for sure.

Yep, DB. Let's see. Gold has just surged to a 10 month high. The Temple Mount is being swarmed. Seems like somebody knows what is up. Everything is on cue.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-47287815

India-Pakistan crisis: Saudi Arabia aims to de-escalate tensions

19 February 2019

Saudi Arabia has said it will work to de-escalate tensions between India and Pakistan, ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's arrival in Delhi.

The prince, known as MBS, is on a tour of Asia and has just visited Pakistan.

Hostilities between Delhi and Islamabad flared last week, after a suicide bombing in the India-administered part of Kashmir killed at least 40 paramilitary police.

A Pakistan-based militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, said it was behind it.

Pakistan denies any role in the bombing, but India has accused the state of being complicit and vowed to isolate its neighbour internationally.

Both India and Pakistan claim all of Muslim-majority Kashmir, but control only parts of it.

Pakistan rolls out red carpet for Saudi prince
Why India and Pakistan dispute Kashmir
Viewpoint: How far might India go to 'punish' Pakistan?

Speaking on Monday, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the Arab state's objective was to "try to de-escalate tensions between the two countries, neighbouring countries, and to see if there is a path forward to resolving those differences peacefully".

Delhi has imposed a swathe of economic measures on Islamabad, including revoking Most Favoured Nation trading status and raising customs duty to 200%.

On Tuesday, Pakistan's foreign minister on Tuesday appealed to the UN to help with the hostilities.

"It is with a sense of urgency that I draw your attention to the deteriorating security situation in our region resulting from the threat of use of force against Pakistan by India," Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi wrote to Secretary General Antonio Guterres, adding that the UN "must step in to defuse tensions".

$20bn Saudi cash injection
Pakistan is in the midst of a financial crisis, and the crown prince's visit saw Saudi Arabia pledge much-needed investment deals worth $20bn (£15.5bn).

With only $8bn left in foreign reserves, Prime Minister Imran Khan has been seeking help from friendly countries in order to cut the size of the bailout package his country is likely to need from the International Monetary Fund, under very strict conditions.

The country is seeking its 13th bailout since the late 1980s, and Saudi Arabia has already provided a $6bn loan.

Prisoner release deal
After a personal plea to the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia also said it would release some 2,107 Pakistani prisoners in a gesture to foster ties.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/485/s...3430903300096~/news/world-asia-india-47287815

The inmates are mostly migrant workers who are jailed with little or no legal recourse - a sensitive issue between Islamabad and Riyadh.

Huge numbers of Pakistani workers labour on construction sites in the Middle East, or work as domestic helpers. The remittances they send back home are vital for Pakistan's economy.

Islamabad has said it will confer its highest civilian honour, the Order of Pakistan, on Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

It comes despite wider international condemnation of Saudi Arabia's role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed and dismembered in the kingdom's Turkish consulate last year.

More on this story
Video

Saudi Arabia 'is Pakistan's friend in need'
18 February 2019

Saudi Arabia signs $20bn in deals with Pakistan
18 February 2019

Pakistan rolls out red carpet for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
17 February 2019

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://news.yahoo.com/india-pakistan-tensions-threaten-derail-saudi-princes-delhi-170550652.html

India-Pakistan tensions threaten to derail Saudi prince's Delhi trip

AFP • February 19, 2019

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday, with his business mission under threat of being overshadowed by soaring tensions between India and Pakistan.

The crown prince, who wants to persuade the world's fastest growing major economy to consume more Saudi oil, was greeted at the airport by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who gave his traditional bear hug for honoured guests.

The prince arrived from a two-day stay in Pakistan as it clashed with its giant neighbour over responsibility for a suicide attack in Kashmir last Thursday that left at least 40 members of Indian security forces dead.

The attack was claimed by Pakistan-based Islamist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and has sparked calls in India for a firm response.

The latest showdown between the nuclear-armed neighbours, which is causing mounting international concern, is expected to figure prominently in Prince Mohammed's talks with Modi on Wednesday.

"Our objective is to try to de-escalate tensions between the two countries, neighbouring countries, and to see if there is a path forward to resolving those differences peacefully," Saudi minister of state Adel al-Jubeir said in Islamabad on Monday.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan offered Tuesday to investigate the attack if India provided proof of its involvement -- but said his country would retaliate if attacked.

India rebuffed Khan's comments and called in turn for "credible and visible action" to rein in militants.

Washington threw its weight behind India Tuesday, pressing Pakistan to punish those behind the Kashmir attack.

"We have been in close communication with the government of India to express not only our condolences but our strong support for India as it confronts this terrorism," deputy US State Department spokesman Robert Palladino told reporters.

"We urge Pakistan to fully cooperate with the investigation into the attack and to punish anyone responsible."

Before the attack, the agenda for the crown prince's visit had been dominated by oil and other key investment decisions.

- Saudi oil rivalry with Iran -
Saudi Arabia currently supplies about 20 percent of India's crude oil and wants to definitively push aside arch-rival Iran as a source.

Iran at one stage last year overtook Saudi Arabia among India's suppliers but US sanctions since have severely hit the Islamic Republic's oil business.

Modi has also wooed Saudi investment in recent years for flagship infrastructure programmes.

"I think even in the backdrop of this attack, the economic ties -- which are beneficial to both the countries -- will remain the focus of the meetings," Kabir Taneja, associate fellow with Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank, told AFP.

"India and Saudi Arabia know what they want from each other: India will be looking for a leverage on oil pricing while Saudi Arabia, which is trying to diversify its economy, is looking at access to rising India's market," he added.

Taneja said India would aim to use these closer economic ties to push for Saudi Arabia's "unconditional support" regarding Pakistan.

The crown prince is on a three-country Asian tour as the kingdom seeks to recover its reputation after last year's murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Prince Mohammed was treated to a colourful welcome, including Punjabi drumming, at the airport with Modi before the two leaders sped off in a convoy.

The crown prince and the prime minister will lead bilateral talks Wednesday, before they are due to issue a statement and announce agreements.

Prince Mohammed is to leave India late Wednesday and is expected to spend two days in China.

Analysts have said the tour is part of a pivot to rising Asia as a growing oil market and a retort to the West where the crown prince has faced harsh criticism over the Khashoggi affair.

View reactions (35)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1455096

India and Saudi Arabia: Past, present and future

Akhtarul Wasey
February 20, 2019
00:28

As Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman begins his visit to India, it is worth recalling that both countries have a deep-rooted and diverse relationship It has grown over the centuries and, though it has had ups and downs, its hallmark has been a shared vision and understanding of important global and regional issues.

The geostrategic position of Saudi Arabia makes it an important neighbor for India, with trade and cultural links dating back thousands of years.

Despite some challenges during the 20th century, the bilateral relationship has blossomed again. Despite visits by King Saud to India in 1955 and India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to Saudi Arabia a year later, political relations failed to develop much until more recently, when leaders from both countries decided to increase cooperation as part of a strategic partnership covering security, economics, defense and politics.

The two governments have been working to develop two-way business agreements, bearing in mind the vast potential of the Indian market and the expertise it can offer as the Kingdom, with its immense financial resources, seeks to diversify its economy.

The most tangible example of this was the establishment of an Indo-Saudi joint commission to promote economic and technical collaboration, inspired by the idea that technology and a skilled workforce from India could be combined with Saudi money to strengthen cooperation. This has yielded tremendous economic gains in the past 25 years, forcing a rethink on political matters.

Saudi Arabia is now India’s fourth-largest trade partner, after China, the US and the UAE. It is a major source of energy, as we import about 19 percent of our crude oil requirement from the Kingdom. The value of bilateral trade during 2015-16 was $26.71 billion, a drop from $39.27 billion in 2014-15, according to figures from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade.

India and Saudi Arabia have pledged to strengthen their strategic partnership and enhance bilateral trade to reflect the size and potential of their economies. To this end, they have invited the private sector and the Saudi-India Business Council to increase efforts to take advantage of the investment opportunities offered by both countries. They emphasized the importance of developing a broad-based economic partnership that reflects the ongoing transformation of their economies and the transformation in the global economic order; India’s increasing requirement for crude oil; and identifying and implementing projects for cooperation in the areas of new and renewable energy, among others.

Indians in Saudi Arabia are the second-largest providers of remittances to their home country. They are also an important aspect of our soft-power diplomacy in the region. During the recent drive toward Saudization of the workforce in the Kingdom, as a result of which a number of expatriates have lost their jobs, special measures were put in place for Indian workers to mitigate the effects, in recognition of the mutual importance of bilateral relations.

The groundwork for the visit by King Abdullah to India began soon after Indian Finance Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Saudi Arabia in 1994. On Jan. 24, 2006, the Saudi king arrived in New Delhi and was personally welcomed by Singh, who had by then become prime minister. The two men held one-on-one talks and their discussions covered a range of issues, including a review of bilateral relations and India’s relationship with its neighbors.

Four agreements were signed, covering the fight against crime, avoiding double taxation, the promotion and protection of bilateral investment, and cooperation in the fields of youth and sport.

The king’s four-day visit ended with the signing of the Delhi Declaration on Jan. 27. It was the first joint declaration signed by a Saudi king in which the two countries agreed to expand bilateral cooperation and work closely together to fight terrorism and other transnational crimes, including money laundering, drug trafficking and arms smuggling.

Prime Minister Singh’s three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, which began on Feb. 27, 2010, was the first visit to the Kingdom by an Indian prime minister since 1982 and only the third up to that time.

During his visit, Singh addressed the Shoura Council, a privilege described as “a singular honor,” and received an honorary doctorate from King Saud University (KSU). In addition, a memorandum of understanding for cooperation was signed by the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore and KSU in the presence of the prime minister. An extradition treaty was signed by Indian Health and Family Welfare Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and Prince Naif bin Abdul Aziz, the Saudi Arabian second deputy prime minister and interior minister.

Four other agreements were also signed, pertaining to the transfer of sentenced persons, cultural cooperation, a memorandum of understanding between the Indian Space Research Organization and King Abdul Aziz City for Science and Technology for cooperation in peaceful space exploration, and joint research in information technology.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, which began on April 2, 2016, further reinforced the relationship between the two nations. The prime minister received a ceremonial welcome, led by the governor of Riyadh, Prince Faisal bin Bandar. Modi held wide-ranging talks with King Salman, to whom he presented a gold-plated replica of the Cheraman Juma Mosque in Kerala.

The visit strengthened the relationship, building on the Delhi Declaration of 2006 and the Riyadh Declaration of 2010. It emphasized the importance of issues such as trade, investment, terrorism and strengthening strategic ties. Increased security cooperation led to the signing of agreements on intelligence sharing and terror financing.

As a result of the enhanced cooperation in recent years, bilateral trade has significantly increased. India intends to further promote trade and widen its scope, particularly in the non-oil sectors. Modi, during his visit to Riyadh, encouraged further investment by Saudi Arabia in India. Saudi interest in investing in India’s infrastructure sector was also made clear during Modi’s visit.

Energy remains a pivotal factor in Indo-Saudi relations, as Saudi Arabia is the largest oil supplier to India. Modi’s visit further developed this relationship, with Saudi Arabia agreeing to deepen ties in energy infrastructure and undertake joint ventures in the energy sector. This was a significant step forward toward building a strategic energy partnership with the Kingdom.

Recently, India and Saudi Arabia have increasingly been turning their attention toward renewable sources of energy, to meet growing needs and reduce carbon emissions. India initiated the International Solar Alliance, in which a large number of countries participate, and Saudi Arabia is looking to develop the opportunities this sector offers. We should engage with each other to mutually benefit from this.

Additionally, the roles of both countries as power centers in their respective geographical regions mean that they share a number of other common interests, including the fight against terrorism, battling poverty, educational exchanges, and investment.

We should, therefore, be focusing on strengthening this bilateral relationship and taking it to new heights.

• Akhtarul Wasey is an Islamic scholar and president of Maulana Azad University in Jodhpur, Rajasthan.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/n...scalate-fresh-tensions-with-india/731415.html
(fair use applies)

Pakistan seeks urgent UN intervention to de-escalate fresh tensions with India
Posted at: Feb 19, 2019, 10:27 AM; last updated: Feb 19, 2019, 12:05 PM (IST)

Islamabad, February 19

Pakistan has sought the UN’s urgent intervention to “defuse tensions” with India, the Foreign Office said on Tuesday, following one of the worst terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir in which 40 Indian soldiers were killed.

On February 14, 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed in Kashmir’s Pulwama district in a suicide attack claimed by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad terror group.
The attack has heightened bilateral tensions with both New Delhi and Islamabad calling back their envoys.

Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday, seeking his help to reduce the tensions between the two countries, Pakistan Foreign Office said. “It is with a sense of urgency that I draw your attention to the deteriorating security situation in our region resulting from the threat of use of force against Pakistan by India,” Qureshi wrote in the letter.

India has rejected any third-party intervention in the Kashmir issue and has maintained that all outstanding matters in Indo-Pak ties should be resolved bilaterally.

Qureshi, in his letter, said the Pulwama attack on Indian CRPF soldiers was ostensibly and even by Indian accounts carried out by a Kashmiri resident.

He said attributing the attack to Pakistan even before investigation was absurd.

He alleged that for domestic political reasons, India deliberately ratcheted up its hostile rhetoric against Pakistan and created a tense environment.

Qureshi wrote that India has also hinted that it might abandon the Indus Waters Treaty, asserting that it would be a grievous error.

“It is imperative to take steps for de-escalation. The United Nations must step in to defuse tensions,” Qureshi said.

He said India must be asked to conduct an open and credible investigation in the terror attack.

“You may also consider asking India to refrain from further escalating the situation and enter into dialogue with Pakistan and the Kashmiris to calm the situation down,” he wrote.

The foreign minister requested that the letter should be circulated to members of the Security Council and General Assembly.

Pakistan has repeatedly asked the UN to intervene in Kashmir. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had also sought the US intervention, saying America was the “most relevant” party to get involved in the Kashmir issue.

The US, however, has time and again reiterated that it is for India and Pakistan to discuss and decide on the pace and scope of their bilateral relationship.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

In late December, Pres Trump said he wanted to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, leaving roughly 7,000 in country. I don't know how much of that withdrawal has been accomplished so there's anywhere between 7,000-14,000 US military currently stationed there. If anything goes hot in Pakistan, those troops have no way home unless we make a deal with China or one of the 'stans (ultimately Russia) and then maybe going through Turkey to get them out. It's do-able, but a PITA. Food for thought...

HD

 

[Housecarl]

In late December, Pres Trump said he wanted to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, leaving roughly 7,000 in country. I don't know how much of that withdrawal has been accomplished so there's anywhere between 7,000-14,000 US military currently stationed there. If anything goes hot in Pakistan, those troops have no way home unless we make a deal with China or one of the 'stans (ultimately Russia) and then maybe going through Turkey to get them out. It's do-able, but a PITA. Food for thought...

HD

Definitely...

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.eurasiareview.com/190220...nd-the-india-pakistan-conflict-dyad-analysis/

Pulwama Terror Attack, Nuclear Weapons And The India-Pakistan Conflict Dyad – Analysis

February 19, 2019 Observer Research Foundation 3 Comments
By Observer Research Foundation

India must consider military retaliation, as further inaction will only go on to reinforce Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.
By Arka Biswas

The terror attack in Pulwama has increased tension between India and Pakistan yet again. Be it Pakistan’s inability to rein in terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) or Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) or the Pakistani deep state’s continuing support to these groups, questions remain on how India can coerce Pakistan into meeting the former’s interests. The conversation, however, has remained restricted to India considering military retaliation and how that would cross Pakistan’s nuclear redline. This article argues that Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and deterrence are not constants; they feed off the developments in the India-Pakistan conflict dyad, in particular the actions taken by India. From this perspective, India must consider military retaliation, as further inaction will only go on to reinforce Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence. Another missing piece in the puzzle is India’s own nuclear arsenal and posture. India should work to better signal its nuclear retaliatory options to counter-balance Pakistan’s nuclear threat. This will contribute to changing the perceptions of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and likely create space for New Delhi to consider military retaliations as tools of coercion.

The surgical strikes conducted by the Indian Army in September 2016 were celebrated as a success by the BJP-led government. Analysis of these strikes, however, capture two fronts where they did not succeed. First, the strikes did not succeed as a tool of coercion. Pakistan since has not taken any credible action against anti-India terror outfits operating from its territory which can be credited to the strikes. Cross-border firing along the Line of Control (LoC) has continued apace, if not increased. Terror attacks against Indian army outposts have been as frequent as earlier in Jammu and Kashmir. While major terror attacks have not occurred in other parts of the country, a correlation between that and surgical strikes of September 2016 cannot be drawn.

Second, India did not cross Pakistan’s declared redline for the first use of tactical nuclear weapons or call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. The scale and nature of the surgical strikes were well below those of military retaliations as designed under, say, the Cold Start doctrine of the Indian army. There was no movement of the army battalion or armoured division into Pakistani territory and India did not suggest any intention of capturing Pakistani territory, de facto or de jure. Given that Pakistan’s threat of using tactical nuclear weapon first is designed to deter low-scale military incursions by India, the stealth attacks of September 2016 — declared as surgical strikes — did not challenge Pakistan’s declared nuclear redline.

India’s military retaliations or lack thereof in response to terror attacks perpetrated by Pakistan-based and funded groups since 1998 have, on the contrary, reinforced Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and deterrence. India mobilised its military heavily during 2001-02 crisis, but it did not cross the LoC or the international border to launch a conventional attack on Pakistan. In the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attack of 2008, India did not launch a low-scale, swift military retaliation. This is despite the conception of Cold Start doctrine in 2004 and several military exercises conducted between 2004 and 2007 towards the operationalisation of that doctrine. Surgical strikes of September 2016 conducted in the aftermath of the Uri terror attack, as assessed above, is another case in point. Any study of South Asian deterrence-stability use these cases to exemplify the robustness of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.

Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence and India’s military retaliation (or lack thereof) therefore demonstrate a two-way causal relationship. On one hand, Pakistan’s nuclear threat contributes to, and not necessarily determine, New Delhi eschewing military options; several other factors like economics of a conflict and utility of military retaliation as a tool of coercion also contribute to New Delhi’s calculus. On the other hand, absence of a military retaliation by India, although effected not just by Pakistan’s nuclear threat, strengthens Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and deterrence. From that perspective, several experts have called on the Indian government to consider military retaliation which would challenge Pakistan’s nuclear threshold or what they refer to as call out Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.

But a factor completely absent in this debate is India’s own nuclear weapons and posture. When Pakistan can deter the threat of an Indian conventional attack with its nuclear posture, why can India not deter the threat of Pakistan’s nuclear first use with its own nuclear posture?

India has been argued to demonstrate a posture of assured retaliation — it will respond to nuclear first use by an adversary with its own nuclear weapons. However, this threat and its signaling has been ineffective, so far, in countering Pakistan’s nuclear threat, especially that of using tactical nuclear weapons in a low-scale conventional conflict. Arguably, India’s nuclear posture has been irrelevant in the India-Pakistan conflict dyad.

India’s declaratory doctrine of 2003 does not explicitly describe the nuclear retaliatory threat. It states that India’s retaliation will be “massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.” Yet, several factors lead India’s nuclear retaliatory threat to be read as that of massive countervalue retaliation — use of strategic nuclear weapons for countervalue retaliation that involves targeting population and industrial centres. These factors include the Cold War-interpretation of “massive retaliation”; an unexplained shift from the use of “punitive” in the 1999 draft doctrine to that of “massive” in the 2003 declaratory doctrine in defining the scale of retaliation; the traditional view among the political elite in New Delhi, according to which nuclear weapons are not tools of warfighting but political tools of deterrence; and reiteration of that view by former Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran in a speech given in 2013 as head of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), wherein he dismisses the concepts of “counterforce retaliation” and “flexible response.”

While the consequent reading of India’s nuclear retaliatory threat is considered a credible deterrent to Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons on India’s strategic centres, it is not against Pakistan’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict on its own territory.

However, recent remarks made by the former National Security Advisor of India, Shivshankar Menon or former Commander-in-Chief of India’s Strategic Force Command (SFC), Lt. Gen. (retd) B.S. Nagal suggest a more flexible reading of India’s nuclear retaliatory threat, be it on targets and scale of retaliation. India indeed possesses capabilities for a retaliation that is proportionate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Pakistan as well. It has nuclear warheads of smaller (tactical) yield and it can use its accurate missile systems or aircrafts as delivery means. India need not go down Pakistan’s path to develop and deploy its own arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons for proportionate retaliation. Better signaling of India’s willingness to retaliate at different levels of the escalatory ladder will counter-balance Pakistan’s nuclear threat.

Thus, the success and dominance of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence is determined by India’s military actions (or lack thereof) in response to terror attacks and India’s signaling of its nuclear retaliatory threat, among other developments in the India-Pakistan conflict dyad. Pakistan’s nuclear threshold and deterrence should not be treated as constants. India can initiate conventional conflict and simultaneously make its nuclear retaliatory threat credible to affect Pakistani calculus.

 

[Bean Pole]

I'll tell you Housecarl, in reading that last article, it made me remember this short 1:18 video of two Indians arguing with each other about something very trivial. Hilarious! Must be all of the curry they consume. We need a little levity right now.

WARNING! LANGUAGE!!!

 

[Bean Pole]

Jammu and Kashmir: Indian, Pakistani troops trade heavy fire on LoC

written by PTI February 20, 2019 7:54 pm

Jammu: Indian and Pakistani troops traded heavy fire on the Line of Control (LoC) on Wednesday in Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri district. Defence Ministry spokesman Lt Colonel Devender Anand said the Pakistanis initiated unprovoked heavy shelling with mortars and firing by small arms around 6.30 p.m. in Kalal area of the Nowshera sector.

“The Indian Army retaliated strongly and effectively,” the officer. The two armies had also exchanged fire in the same sector on Tuesday. The winding LoC divides Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Link: https://www.freepressjournal.in/lat...istani-troops-trade-heavy-fire-on-loc/1464821

 

[Bean Pole]

Will ignore Imran Khan's threat, Pakistan is in panic: Ravi Shankar Prasad tells India Today

Rahul Kanwal New Delhi February 20, 2019 UPDATED: February 20, 2019 23:31 IST

People who are mighty don't give warnings. An elephant doesn't need to be told about its power... the game was started by Pakistan in 1999, 1971, 1965 and 1948 and we ended it… I don't want to comment upon the so-called threat of Imran Khan except to ignore it with the contempt it deserves because the script was not his, said Ravi Shankar Prasad.

A day after Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan challenged India's might in the wake of the Pulwama attack, Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad spoke to India Today TV about the actions taken by the Modi government, Pakistan's global isolation and the crucial visit of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

In a televised address on Tuesday, Khan solicited proof of Pakistan's involvement in the attack that killed 40 CRPF jawans. "Pakistan will definitely retaliate in the event of an attack. It won't give a second thought," he had said.

How do you view the statement from the Pakistani PM?

It was a script prepared by the army and read after 23 or 26 cuts by the prime minister When PM Narendra Modi said action will be taken, see how the 200 per cent duty hike after the MFN tag was removed is hurting the Pakistani trade. Within 100 hours of the Pulwama attack, the mastermind was killed. Security was withdrawn from Hurriyat leaders. Pakistan has been isolated internationally. I wish to tell him (Imran Khan), India of 2019 is not the India of 1948, 1965 or even 1971 or 1999. Pakistan started the game, but we ended it. Mr Imran Khan needs evidence. When Masood Azhar went back to Pakistan was he not received by the Pakistani establishment? We gave evidence in the wake of 26/11 Mumbai blasts. No action was taken. They came to inspect the Pathankot blast, nothing happened there. Imran Khan is trying to divert the attention but the world now is different, India is different.

Imran Khan seems to be threatening war if India exercises any military option. Are we deterred by such talk from the Pakistani PM?

People who are mighty don't give warnings. An elephant doesn't need to be told about its power... the game was started by Pakistan in 1999, 1971, 1965 and 1948 and we ended it I don't want to comment upon the so-called threat of Imran Khan except to ignore it with the contempt it deserves because the script was not his.

Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, in panic, moved the UN, urging the world communities to stop India from attacking Pakistan. What do you make of Pakistan's move and what how does the Modi government intend to counter it?

The whole world is countering it. Russia, America, France, New Zealand, European communities and Middle East countries - all have condemned the attack. Iran is holding Pakistan guilty of attacking its security forces. Pakistan today is in complete isolation globally. This desperate measure by the loudmouth foreign minister of Pakistan going to New York, seeking intervention by itself is an admission of panic... Pakistan is in violation of bilateral commitments, also multilateral commitments of the UN.

How do you view the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to India?

India-Saudi Arabia relationship has become exceedingly important. The kind words the Saudi Crown Prince used for PM Modi, their bonhomie was truly amazing. A new relationship has emerged. Today, Saudi Arabia has seen as to what Pakistan has become - a terror-generating machine. They have seen how PM Modi has become a pole of stability, a pole of peace and a very important global power. That's a big game-changer.

How do you respond to Mamata Banerjee, Mehbooba Mufti and other people's allegations that politics is being done over Pulwama?

It's very unfortunate, deeply regrettable. I would urge Mamata ji that at least for the sake of the forces, have some kind of bipartisan understanding... I would urge her to feel for India... As far as Mehbooba ji is concerned, I can understand her compulsion. But I would tell her that in Baramulla, recruitment for armed forces is going on. Many channels are showing how the Kashmiri youth are running with pride for India to join the armed forces They believe in India, and that's the changing narrative of Jammu and Kashmir.

Do you think that the cricket match between India and Pakistan should be called off?

Those who are demanding it have some justifications. I think the ICC and India's cricket establishment will have to take a call in consultation with security agencies.

What do you have to say about the attacks on young Kashmiri children by fringe groups?

No, it's completely wrong. I would urge my young friends, regardless of the anger you have, don't attack them. That's not the India we aspire for. If J&K is an integral part of India, Kashmiris, Jammuites and Ladakhis are all part of us.

Link: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...r-prasad-tells-india-today-1461105-2019-02-20

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/n...scalate-fresh-tensions-with-india/731415.html
(fair use applies)

Pakistan seeks urgent UN intervention to de-escalate fresh tensions with India
Posted at: Feb 19, 2019, 10:27 AM; last updated: Feb 19, 2019, 12:05 PM (IST)

[...]

The US, however, has time and again reiterated that it is for India and Pakistan to discuss and decide on the pace and scope of their bilateral relationship.

In late December, Pres Trump said he wanted to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, leaving roughly 7,000 in country. I don't know how much of that withdrawal has been accomplished so there's anywhere between 7,000-14,000 US military currently stationed there. If anything goes hot in Pakistan, those troops have no way home unless we make a deal with China or one of the 'stans (ultimately Russia) and then maybe going through Turkey to get them out. It's do-able, but a PITA. Food for thought...

Definitely...

I was wondering about the USA's position at the UN and it's mostly remaining quiet during all of this. We're in between a rock and a hard place with these countries, we need Pakistan for military reasons and we need India for business reasons. Add the Iran element into the equation and we certainly can't abandon India.

And once again Pres Trump was proven correct. We need to get ALL military out of Afghanistan, they are sitting ducks over there in one of the most volatile regions in the world right now.

HD