WAR Jammu/Kashmir main thread

[Bean Pole]

I fully expect a real escalation of this over our weekend. Note my bolded.

Response to Pulwama attack: Precision air strikes the favoured option

Rajat Pandit | TNN | Updated: Feb 16, 2019, 04:45 IST

NEW DELHI: The armed forces have stepped up military pressure along the volatile Line of Control in the aftermath of the Pulwama terror attack, with Pakistan army too raising its alert levels, but the dominant feeling is that the government needs to seriously consider options for limited cross-border strikes to compel Islamabad to change its behaviour.

The military options, short of going to war, could range from 'shallow' ground-based attacks and occupation of some heights along the LoC to restricted but precision air strikes against 'non-state targets' in PoK, senior military officers said. There is growing agreement in the security establishment that carefully-calibrated airborne strikes are among the most viable and effective options to teach a lesson to Pakistan, with the ground-based 'surgical strikes' of September 2016 having somewhat lost their element of surprise.

Fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Jaguars, armed with 'smart' glide bombs and missiles, can be used to take out some terror camps and launch pads near the LoC from 'stand-off ranges' without even crossing into Pakistani airspace. "Preparation time for such air strikes is minimal," said an officer on the condition of anonymity.

Then, the 90-km Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems and the 290-km BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles can be used to target Pakistani army posts, terror camps, launch pads and staging areas.

But exercising any such coercive option will require political will to risk retaliation and escalation, with Pakistan clearly being no military pushover.

“There are a host of military options available depending on the time, place and kind of weapon system to be used without crossing the threshold. The aim would be to target the terror infrastructure in PoK, not the Pakistan heartland or its citizens,” said another officer.
Officers contend the use of hard military options against terror-training camps, even though many of them may be makeshift, will send an unequivocal message to Pakistan, and is a risk worth taking because the diplomatic offensive against Pakistan has failed to deliver the goods. “Pulwama is a big tragedy. But it was coming, and Pakistan’s hand is all over it. How long will we continue to take hits? We have to seriously start looking at some hard-kinetic options,” said Lt Gen D S Hooda (retd), who oversaw the “surgical strikes” in 2016 as the Northern Command chief.


“Diplomacy with Pakistan is not working, with China backing it to the hilt. One surgical strike in three years is not going to change Pakistan’s attitude… India needs a consistent, long-term strategy, with options in the military sphere not being ruled out,” he added.
But some in the security establishment also struck a word of caution. The use of any air or missile strike on Pakistani territory, backed as it will have to be with troop mobilisation on the ground, is bound to be escalatory as well as lead to collateral damage in the absence of hard intelligence and target coordinates.

“Virtually the entire air defence machinery of Pakistan is geared towards India. Things can easily spin out of control. Does India want a full-blown war with Pakistan, which has often threatened first use of nuclear weapons?” asked an officer.

Link: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=TOIDesktop

 

[Bean Pole]

EndGameWW3
‏ @EndGameWW3
7m7 minutes ago

''We Support India's Right To Self-Defense'': US NSA To Ajit Doval https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/we-...ity-adviser-john-bolton-to-ajit-doval-1994423 … via @ndtv


@EndGameWW3
9m9 minutes ago

A Day After Pulwama Attack, Saudi Crown Prince Cuts Short Pak Visit https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/a-d...-bin-salman-cuts-short-pakistan-visit-1994393 … via @ndtv

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/1..._campaign=11469&utm_term=Editor#39;s Picks OC

Argument

Pakistan Has No More Excuses for Supporting Terrorism

A murderous attack in Kashmir rocks relationships throughout Asia.

By Dhruva Jaishankar | February 15, 2019, 11:28 AM

On the afternoon of Thursday, Feb. 14, a massive explosion rocked a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy in Pulwama in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. At least 40 personnel belonging to the CRPF—a 300,000-strong paramilitary force under the Ministry of Home Affairs involved in law-and-order and counterterrorism duties—were killed as a suicide bomber drove an SUV reportedly loaded with about 600 pounds of explosives into their bus. Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for the attack, and the group’s role has been confirmed by Indian officials. The assault comes weeks before India’s general elections, which are expected to be held in March and April.

The next morning, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security—consisting of the prime minister and four senior ministers—held an emergency meeting and, as a first step, announced the revocation of “most favored nation” trading status for Pakistan. India had granted this status to Pakistan in 1996, although Pakistan had never reciprocated. But this is just one of the retaliatory measures likely to be taken after the worst act of Islamist terrorism in India since the Mumbai attacks in 2008.

Culpability for the attacks is unambiguous. For decades, Islamist terrorists belonging to groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have benefited from recruitment, financing, training, and other forms of support provided by Pakistan’s security establishment. Groups targeting India and Afghanistan continue to operate with relative impunity inside Pakistan, which has only cracked down on militancy against the Pakistani state. In Jammu and Kashmir, cross-border infiltration has been facilitated by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence directorate—its primary external intelligence agency, run by the military—and the Pakistan Army, which provides cover in the form of artillery and gun fire across the Line of Control separating Indian- and Pakistani-held territory.

Despite the highs and lows in India-Pakistan relations over the past two decades, there is no evidence that Pakistan has made serious attempts at dismantling this terrorist infrastructure. Although the frequency ebbs and flows, cross-border infiltrations continue on a regular basis: Most of these terrorists are quickly stopped or neutralized by Indian security forces, and those attacks that have been successful—including the one at Uri in 2016—have generally benefited from negligence or a good deal of luck. Given that Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for Pulwama, and the group operates openly on its soil, Pakistan cannot rely, as it has in the past, on ambiguity and plausible deniability to deflect responsibility for this attack.

Pulwama marks an extension of recent trends concerning terrorism in India. Despite several high-profile incidents in recent years, the frequency and severity of terrorism in the country have witnessed a steady decline since 2002 and are well below the highs of the 1990s. More than 1,000 civilians were killed in terrorist attacks each year in India between 2005 and 2008. That has dropped to about 200 annually since 2015. In Jammu and Kashmir alone, civilian and security fatalities from terrorism declined—largely as a result of international pressure and improved security—from an estimated 1,700 in 2001 to 285 in 2007 and 33 in 2012. The numbers have subsequently climbed back up to 181 last year, in part as a consequence of agitations in the Kashmir Valley after July 2016 and Pakistan’s decision to try to take advantage of the situation.

The nature of terrorism in India has seen fundamental shifts over this period. Between 2000 and 2008, as violence in Jammu and Kashmir steadily declined, Islamist terrorist attacks began to occur with alarming frequency in major Indian cities. The fatalities mounted, with between 20 and 200 killed in attacks in Mumbai in 2003; New Delhi in 2005; Varanasi and Mumbai in 2006; Hyderabad in 2007; and Jaipur, Ahmedabad, New Delhi, and Mumbai in 2008. Another spate of smaller attacks occurred between 2010 and 2013 in Pune, Mumbai, New Delhi, and Hyderabad.

But since that time, the targets have shifted to primarily military and security facilities and away from major civilian and population centers. This, presumably, was intended by Pakistan to minimize international attention and censure and project such acts of terrorism as part of an unconventional military campaign. Thus, an Indian Air Force base was the target at Pathankot in January 2016, and an Indian Army post was attacked at Uri later that year. India responded to the latter incident with a series of coordinated retributive attacks across the Line of Control, which became known in India as “surgical strikes.” With an assault on the CRPF convoy, the trend continues.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan rose to power with support from the country’s powerful army. Like his predecessor, Nawaz Sharif, he has attempted to internationalize the Kashmir issue, in part to cater to various domestic constituencies. If there was any expectation that Imran’s elevation might offer India the opportunity to turn a new leaf on the relationship, that will now diminish, no matter what the outcome of the forthcoming Indian general election.

But the attack also has implications for Afghanistan, where India is already nervous about a probable U.S. military drawdown. Jaish-e-Mohammed has old connections to the Taliban and al Qaeda. In 1999, Masood Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed, was released from Indian custody as part of a hostage exchange in Taliban-controlled Kandahar, following the hijacking of an Indian Airlines aircraft with 173 passengers and 15 crew on board. From Taliban-controlled territory, he was whisked back to Pakistan, where he returned to the business of terrorism. His organization was soon involved in the December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament, which resulted in a massive Indian military mobilization the following year against Pakistan.

This standoff provided a pretext for Pakistan to move military assets away from its western frontier to its eastern border with India, a move that enabled the exfiltration of Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders from the caves of Tora Bora in Afghanistan into Pakistan. This history has resonance today, as the United States engages in negotiations with the Taliban on the future of Afghanistan. Pulwama underscores the continued dangers for India of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and New Delhi is unlikely to be persuaded by the ongoing attempts to normalize the Taliban and its sponsors.

The story goes even further than that. India has been trying to rally international efforts to have Azhar listed as an international terrorist by the United Nations. While its efforts have been supported by the United States, United Kingdom, and France, they have been repeatedly blocked by China. China’s obduracy further exposes Beijing’s double standards: While China points to Islamist terrorism to justify imprisoning more than a million Uighurs in camps in its western region of Xinjiang, it continues to protect Pakistan on terrorism. Pulwama may generate further Indian skepticism about China’s bona fides at a time when Beijing was hoping for a continued thaw in relations.

With the Indian elections around the corner, there is also a domestic angle. The Narendra Modi government has highlighted the decline of terrorist incidents on its watch, and that certainly applies to major urban centers and the country as a whole. But violence in Jammu and Kashmir has picked up somewhat since 2016, with India’s security forces continuing to bear the brunt of it. It seems irresponsible to try to predict what retributive actions may follow in the coming days, weeks, and months. For now, largely leaving aside overt partisanship, India’s leaders have been united in standing behind the country’s security services.

Dhruva Jaishankar is Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings India in New Delhi and the Brookings Institution in Washington DC. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow with the Lowy Institute in Australia.

 

[Housecarl]

From rattling around on line, the guestimations as to Pakistani nuclear stock piles range from 140 to 150 warheads based upon estimates of U-325 and Pu-239 production. Yields are estimated to be up to 300 to 500 kt for their MRBMs down to low-yield tactical weapons akin to the US Davy Crockett.

For India the estimates again max out at about 140 to 150 warheads. Yields run about the same as well up to at least a max of 250 kt.

just to give a idea what that looks like...

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

A 500kt airburst strike on New Dehli, India (https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11) would create an estimate of

Estimated fatalities:
1,643,580
Estimated injuries:
4,949,480
In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 14,250,380 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation.

Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored. For more information about the model, click here.

Effects radii for 500 kiloton airburst* (smallest to largest): ▼


Fireball radius: 0.73 km (1.68 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 0.66 km.


Air blast radius (5 psi): 5.58 km (97.8 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Often used as a standard benchmark for medium damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 2.48 km.


Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 8.99 km (254 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 10.9 cal/cm2.


Air blast radius (1 psi): 15.7 km (773 km²)
At a around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a standard benchmark for light damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 3.71 km.
*Detonation altitude: 2,480 m. (Chosen to maximize the 5 psi range.)

The following errors were encountered trying to implement these settings:
The blast pressure equation for 20 psi failed to give a result for the given yield and height settings. The maximum detonation height for this effect to be felt on the ground is 2.24 km.
The initial nuclear radiation equation for 500 rem failed to give a result for the given yield and height settings. The maximum detonation height for this effect to be felt on the ground is 2.29 km.

Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.


Fallout: Your choice of burst height is too high to produce significant local fallout. The minimum burst height to produce appreciable fallout for a yield of 500 kiloton is 0.66 km.

for Islamabad, Pakistan a 250 kt airburst strike would (https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11) estimated in a resulting....

Estimated fatalities:
239,910
Estimated injuries:
594,040
In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 1,859,166 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation.

Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored. For more information about the model, click here.

Effects radii for 250 kiloton airburst* (smallest to largest): ▼


Fireball radius: 0.55 km (0.97 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 500 m.


Radiation radius (500 rem): 0.7 km (1.53 km²)
500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.


Air blast radius (5 psi): 4.43 km (61.6 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Often used as a standard benchmark for medium damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 1.97 km.


Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 6.61 km (137 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 10.5 cal/cm2.


Air blast radius (1 psi): 12.5 km (487 km²)
At a around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a standard benchmark for light damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 2.94 km.
*Detonation altitude: 1,970 m. (Chosen to maximize the 5 psi range.)

The following errors were encountered trying to implement these settings:
The blast pressure equation for 20 psi failed to give a result for the given yield and height settings. The maximum detonation height for this effect to be felt on the ground is 1.77 km.

Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.


Fallout: Your choice of burst height is too high to produce significant local fallout. The minimum burst height to produce appreciable fallout for a yield of 250 kiloton is 500 m.

If Karachi, Pakistan...(https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11)

Estimated fatalities:
683,120
Estimated injuries:
3,235,120
In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 9,592,860 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation.

Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored. For more information about the model, click here.

Effects radii for 250 kiloton airburst* (smallest to largest): ▼


Fireball radius: 0.55 km (0.97 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 500 m.


Radiation radius (500 rem): 0.7 km (1.53 km²)
500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.


Air blast radius (5 psi): 4.43 km (61.6 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Often used as a standard benchmark for medium damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 1.97 km.


Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 6.61 km (137 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 10.5 cal/cm2.


Air blast radius (1 psi): 12.5 km (487 km²)
At a around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a standard benchmark for light damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 2.94 km.
*Detonation altitude: 1,970 m. (Chosen to maximize the 5 psi range.)

The following errors were encountered trying to implement these settings:
The blast pressure equation for 20 psi failed to give a result for the given yield and height settings. The maximum detonation height for this effect to be felt on the ground is 1.77 km.

Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.


Fallout: Your choice of burst height is too high to produce significant local fallout. The minimum burst height to produce appreciable fallout for a yield of 250 kiloton is 500 m.

 

[Bean Pole]

From rattling around on line, the guestimations as to Pakistani nuclear stock piles range from 140 to 150 warheads based upon estimates of U-325 and Pu-239 production. Yields are estimated to be up to 300 to 500 kt for their MRBMs down to low-yield tactical weapons akin to the US Davy Crockett.

For India the estimates again max out at about 140 to 150 warheads. Yields run about the same as well up to at least a max of 250 kt.

just to give a idea what that looks like...

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

A 500kt airburst strike on New Dehli, India (https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11) would create an estimate of


for Islamabad, Pakistan a 250 kt airburst strike would (https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11) estimated in a resulting....



If Karachi, Pakistan...(https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/...=8131&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=11)

Well Housecarl, that would definitely get this thing kicked off. Merde is right.

 

[Bean Pole]

Barka Dutt
@BDUTT

Everything will change after this Kashmir Terror Attack. My take in @washingtonpost on #Pulwama #KashmirTerrorAttack

On my phone. Here is the link:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-attack/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dca968b4d854

 

[almost ready]

The Intel Doge Retweeted

ELINT News
‏

@ELINTNews
1h1 hour ago
More
#UPDATE: Looks like India will be likely striking targets in Pakistan with warplanes & Iran will be striking targets in Pakistan with ballistic & cruise missiles after two separate large suicide bombings (blamed on Pakistan) in India & Iran killed many of the two nations troops

he Intel Doge
‏

@IntelDoge
4m4 minutes ago
More
India/Pakistan region has gotten hot real quickly, definitely a region to keep an eye on. Reports that the Indian Air Force will begin bombing raids on targets in Pakistan tonight.

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge

DEFCONWarningSystem
‏
Verified account

@DEFCONWSALERTS
Follow Follow @DEFCONWSALERTS
More
There has been another incident in Kashmir involving an IED. Two fatalities. We normally would not report on an incident like this, but coming so soon after the first, it may or may not be a significant development. DWS continues to monitor. Alert status remains unchanged.

***

There was major rioting, including car burning in Kashmir after the first incident. This is complicated by the upcoming elections in India, which virtually requires that the existing government act quickly and strongly to this provocation.

Am concerned, and surprised to see that iran was also hit, and is expected to retaliate.

This could slide off the highway into a 40 semi pile-up very quickly. How many countries are allied to the parties and will be dragged in, if it escalates?

My guess is lots.

Domestically, we know that the WH and Congress had to come to some budget anyway, because of the foodstamp and other issues, but this may add another reason why the WH decided to get that issue off the need for focus and clear Trump's desk for other business.

 

[almost ready]

What the heck does this mean?

Later, at a public meeting, the Prime Minister said: "Security forces have been given permission to take decisions about the timing, place and nature of their response... This is an India of new convention and policy."

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pm-...ck-made-a-huge-mistake-will-have-to-p-1993950


"Soldiers Given Full Freedom": PM's Message To Pak After Pulwama Terror
தமிழில் படிக்கবাংলায় পড়ুন
PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack: PM was speaking in Delhi after chairing a top level security meeting with senior ministers after the Pulwama terror attack on Thursday.
All India | Edited by Deepshikha Ghosh | Updated: February 16, 2019 00:38 IST

SHARENEW DELHI:
HIGHLIGHTS
PM said those involved in Pulwama attack will have to pay a "heavy price"
PM Modi, Arun Jaitley and others attended a top level security meeting
Arun Jaitley said the centre has decided to ensure Pakistan's isolation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi today warned that those responsible for the Pulwama terror attack in which 40 CRPF soldiers were killed would pay a "very heavy price" and had made a "big mistake". In hard-hitting comments at an official event, PM Modi said security forces had been given a free hand to act against terror.

"I want to tell the terrorists and their backers... they have made a big mistake. You will have to pay a very heavy price... I assure everyone that the forces behind the attack... we will bring them to justice," PM Modi said in Delhi after chairing a top level security meeting with senior ministers. He made the remarks before flagging off the Vande Bharat Express, India's fastest.

Later, at a public meeting, the Prime Minister said: "Security forces have been given permission to take decisions about the timing, place and nature of their response... This is an India of new convention and policy."

Shock, grief and outrage have engulfed the country after the deadly attack on Thursday in which a terrorist rammed buses in a security convoy on the Jammu-Srinagar highway with a car carrying 60 kg of explosives.

Union Minister Arun Jaitley said after the Cabinet Committee on Security meeting that the government had decided to take all possible diplomatic steps to ensure Pakistan's isolation and had withdrawn Most Favoured Nation status to the country. "Those who were involved and supported the incident will have to pay a very heavy price," said Mr Jaitley.

"There is a lot of anger, people's blood is boiling at what happened... I understand," the prime minister said in his remarks on the terror attack.

"The neighbouring country, if it thinks it can destabilize India, it can forget it. That will never happen," he said, adding, "We will give a fitting response to this attack."

He also called for all parties to stand united and rise above politics. "I urge everyone it's an emotional and sensitive time. Whether in the government or opposition, we must stay away from politics. The country is together. Our unity will be a big factor in defeating the enemy."

The Prime Minister also referred to "big nations" who had condemned the attack and supported India. "When all countries come together, terrorism will not survive for long."

The attack, he said, was an outcome of Pakistan's desperation as it had been forced to go to different countries with a "begging bowl" to meet even its daily expenses.

The US, in a strong statement, has called on Pakistan to "immediately end support and safe haven to all terrorist groups".

 

[mzkitty]

#PulwamaAttack #NaMoYuva
‏ @ImArvindC
10m10 minutes ago

#BREAKING | #India raises basic customs duty on all goods exported from Pakistan to 200% with immediate effect

 

[Bean Pole]

Folks, it looks like Iran & India are teaming up to use ballistic & cruise missiles to attack terror groups tonight. It’s 10:00 pm in Islamabad & nighttime fireworks will probably commence. When I can get off my phone, I’ll pass more substance.

 

[Bean Pole]

Elint News (based in the UK) has a pretty good assessment on things. From his website: “Specialising in coverage of Middle Eastern, African and DPRK-related affairs as well as terrorism threat analysis.” Bolding & underlining are mine.

Here’s the Readers Digest version, which I posted earlier. Here’s what he said 2 hours ago:

“Looks like India will be likely striking targets in Pakistan with warplanes & Iran will be striking targets in Pakistan with ballistic & cruise missiles after two separate large suicide bombings (blamed on Pakistan) in India & Iran killed many of the two nations troops.”

Now that the White House has greenlighted a response for India & since Iran is allowing the Indian air force the ability to use their bases, Pakistan is going to get hit from two sides – possibly starting tonight. Current time in Islamabad is 10:35 p.m.


EndGameWW3‏ @EndGameWW3 23m23 minutes ago
White House greenlights punitive Indian measures against Pakistan http://toi.in/9YxhBY/a24gk via @TOIWorld

ELINT News‏ @ELINTNews 31m31 minutes ago
#UPDATE: “Preparation time for such air strikes is minimal" said an officer on condition of anonymity. Then, 90km Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems & 290km BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles can be used to target Pakistani army posts, terror camps, launch pads & staging areas

ELINT News‏ @ELINTNews 35m35 minutes ago
#UPDATE: Times of India: Fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Jaguars, armed with 'smart' glide bombs and missiles, can be used to take out some terror camps and launch pads near the LoC from 'stand-off ranges' without even crossing into Pakistani airspace /1

ELINT News‏ @ELINTNews 2h2 hours ago
#UPDATE: Looks like India will be likely striking targets in Pakistan with warplanes & Iran will be striking targets in Pakistan with ballistic & cruise missiles after two separate large suicide bombings (blamed on Pakistan) in India & Iran killed many of the two nations troops

ELINT News‏ @ELINTNews 3h3 hours ago
#UPDATE: Meanwhile: Iran has also blamed Pakistan for a suicide attack inside Iran that killed 27 IRGC members saying: “The government of Pakistan must pay the price of harbouring these terrorist groups and this price will undoubtedly be very high”

ELINT News Retweeted

Babak Taghvaee‏ @BabakTaghvaee 4h4 hours ago
#BREAKING: According to #Iran Air Force commander, the 10th Tactical Fighter Base in #Chabahar SE. #Iran is now getting prepared for an exercise to host #IRIAF fighter jets which will be deployed there in 48 hours. Also #Indian Air Force military aircraft will use the base!

 

[Bean Pole]

ELINT News
‏ @ELINTNews
13m13 minutes ago

ELINT News Retweeted Seyed Abbas Araghchi

#UPDATE: India’s Foreign Minister has met with Iran’s Foreign Minister in Tehran today

ELINT News added,
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
Verified account @araghchi

Iran & India suffered from two heinous terrorist attacks in the past few days resulted in big casualties. Today in my meeting with Sushma Swaraj the Indian FM, when she had a stopover in Tehran, we agreed on close cooperation…

 

[Bean Pole]

What the heck does this mean?

Later, at a public meeting, the Prime Minister said: "Security forces have been given permission to take decisions about the timing, place and nature of their response... This is an India of new convention and policy."

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pm-...ck-made-a-huge-mistake-will-have-to-p-1993950


"Soldiers Given Full Freedom": PM's Message To Pak After Pulwama Terror
தமிழில் படிக்கবাংলায় পড়ুন
PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack: PM was speaking in Delhi after chairing a top level security meeting with senior ministers after the Pulwama terror attack on Thursday.
All India | Edited by Deepshikha Ghosh | Updated: February 16, 2019 00:38 IST

SHARENEW DELHI:
HIGHLIGHTS
PM said those involved in Pulwama attack will have to pay a "heavy price"
PM Modi, Arun Jaitley and others attended a top level security meeting
Arun Jaitley said the centre has decided to ensure Pakistan's isolation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi today warned that those responsible for the Pulwama terror attack in which 40 CRPF soldiers were killed would pay a "very heavy price" and had made a "big mistake". In hard-hitting comments at an official event, PM Modi said security forces had been given a free hand to act against terror.

"I want to tell the terrorists and their backers... they have made a big mistake. You will have to pay a very heavy price... I assure everyone that the forces behind the attack... we will bring them to justice," PM Modi said in Delhi after chairing a top level security meeting with senior ministers. He made the remarks before flagging off the Vande Bharat Express, India's fastest.

Later, at a public meeting, the Prime Minister said: "Security forces have been given permission to take decisions about the timing, place and nature of their response... This is an India of new convention and policy."

Shock, grief and outrage have engulfed the country after the deadly attack on Thursday in which a terrorist rammed buses in a security convoy on the Jammu-Srinagar highway with a car carrying 60 kg of explosives.

Union Minister Arun Jaitley said after the Cabinet Committee on Security meeting that the government had decided to take all possible diplomatic steps to ensure Pakistan's isolation and had withdrawn Most Favoured Nation status to the country. "Those who were involved and supported the incident will have to pay a very heavy price," said Mr Jaitley.

"There is a lot of anger, people's blood is boiling at what happened... I understand," the prime minister said in his remarks on the terror attack.

"The neighbouring country, if it thinks it can destabilize India, it can forget it. That will never happen," he said, adding, "We will give a fitting response to this attack."

He also called for all parties to stand united and rise above politics. "I urge everyone it's an emotional and sensitive time. Whether in the government or opposition, we must stay away from politics. The country is together. Our unity will be a big factor in defeating the enemy."

The Prime Minister also referred to "big nations" who had condemned the attack and supported India. "When all countries come together, terrorism will not survive for long."

The attack, he said, was an outcome of Pakistan's desperation as it had been forced to go to different countries with a "begging bowl" to meet even its daily expenses.

The US, in a strong statement, has called on Pakistan to "immediately end support and safe haven to all terrorist groups".

Almost Ready, I'll borrow this sentence from what you posted: "This is an India of new convention and policy."

My take on it is this - Modi is unleashing his dogs of war. Plausible denial. Combining that with what is sounding like a fever pitch of his people and his military, this will probably get very ugly & very fast.

 

[Bean Pole]

Surgical strike alone won't do: Shiv Sena on Pulwama terror attack

After attending the all-party meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Shiv Sena parliamentarian Sanjay Raut told reporters the Narendra Modi dispensation should do what former prime minister Indira Gandhi had done.

Press Trust of India
New Delhi
February 16, 2019
UPDATED: February 16, 2019 23:41 IST

Carrying out surgical strike only will not yield results and the time has come that attacks have to be deep inside Pakistan, including in Lahore and Islamabad, the Shiv Sena told the central government at an all-party meeting on Saturday (February 16) following the Pulwama terror attack.

After attending the all-party meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Shiv Sena parliamentarian Sanjay Raut told reporters the Narendra Modi dispensation should do what former prime minister Indira Gandhi had done.
"Surgical strike alone will not do, now the strikes have to be deep inside till Lahore and Islamabad. The Modi government has to do what the Indira Gandhi government had done," Raut said.

India had won the 1971 war against Pakistan under the leadership of Indira Gandhi.

India had carried out surgical strikes on terror launch pads across the border with Pakistan in 2016 in response to a terrorist attack on an Army camp in Uri in Jammu and Kashmir.

At the meeting on Saturday, political parties put up a united face as they underlined India's determination to fight terrorism following the Pulwama terror attack and expressed their solidarity with security forces in defending the country's unity and integrity.
The meeting, attended by senior leaders of all major parties, passed a resolution condemning the terror attack and the support being given to it from across the border. Members of the opposition extended support to the government in tackling the challenge.
As many as 40 CRPF personnel were killed on Thursday (February 14) in one of the most lethal attacks targeting the security forces in Kashmir. Pakistan-based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad has claimed responsibility for the terror strike.

Link: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...sena-modi-surgical-strikes-1457936-2019-02-16

 

[Bean Pole]

So, with all of this rhetoric, Pakistan, a country that possesses, as Housecarl has estimated “…the guestimations as to Pakistani nuclear stock piles range from 140 to 150 warheads based upon estimates of U-325 and Pu-239 production.” is about to get whacked on two fronts. Note that they have publicly stated before that they were open to first strike options.

Article:

Iran Says Pakistan Backs Suicide Bombers, Warns 'Revenge' at Funeral of Victims

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has linked the perpetrators of Wednesday's attack to "the spying agencies of some regional and trans-regional countries".

AFP Updated:February 16, 2019, 11:26 PM IST

Isfahan (Iran): Tens of thousands of Iranians called for "revenge" on Saturday at the funeral of 27 Revolutionary Guards killed in a suicide attack perpetrated by jihadists that Tehran accuses Pakistan of supporting.

"The government of Pakistan must pay the price of harbouring these terrorist groups and this price will undoubtedly be very high," said Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, referring to jihadist outfit Jaish al Adl ("Army of Justice").

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer observe the previous reservations and will directly act to counter such acts," Jafari told mourners gathered at the city of Isfahan's Bozorgmehr Square.

The comments by Jafari, commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, came a day ahead of a planned two-day visit to Pakistan by Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Iran's regional arch-rival Saudi Arabia. Jafari blamed Pakistan's army and Inter-Services Intelligence agency, saying that "sheltering and silence" amounts to supporting the perpetrators.

As he left the podium, people shouted "Commander of Sepah (Farsi for Revolutionary Guards) - Revenge! Revenge!".

The Wednesday bombing targeted a busload of Revolutionary Guards in the volatile southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, which straddles the border with Pakistan.

Jaish al-Adl was formed in 2012 as a successor to the Sunni extremist group Jundallah (Soldiers of God), which waged a deadly insurgency for a decade before it was severely weakened by the capture and execution of its leader Abdolmalek Rigi in 2010.

Jafari also blasted "the traitorous governments of Saudi Arabia and (the) Emirates" and said Iran will no longer tolerate their "hidden support for anti-Islam thugs and Takfiri groups".

He called on President Hassan Rouhani and the country's Supreme National Security Council to give the guards more freedom to carry out "retaliatory operations," but did not elaborate.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has linked the perpetrators of Wednesday's attack to "the spying agencies of some regional and trans-regional countries".

Black flags attached to lamp-posts adorned Isfahan as the city prepared for the funeral and two days of mourning.

When the bodies of the troops arrived on the back of Toyota vans — the guards' signature vehicles – their comrades, women in black veils and young men in jeans were there to greet them. Tens of thousands chanted "Down with America!" and "We will never submit!" Iran's flag could be seen at half-mast in Bozorgmehr Square's southeastern side, and the crowd chanted "Allahu Akbar" each time the speaker read the names of the dead.

The troops killed in the bombing belonged to the Guards' 14th Imam Hussein Division, which is based in Isfahan province, according to Tasnim news agency.

Aged from 21 to 52, each will be buried in his hometown after the funeral.

A housekeeper originally from Khuzestan province, where a deadly attack killed 24 last year, told AFP of the thirst for revenge.

"We demand that the blood of these troops be avenged," said Tayebbeh Rezaee, 34. "They cannot weaken the Islamic Republic in any way — not war, not economic attacks. So they have to stoop to such acts."

Sistan-Baluchistan has long been a flashpoint, where Pakistan-based Baluchi separatists and jihadists carry out cross-border raids.

A Revolutionary Guard was killed and five wounded in a February 2 attack claimed by Jaish al-Adl on a base of the Basij militia in the town of Nikshahr, some way from the border. One of the wounded — Khodarahm Heidari, who was critically injured in that attack — died on Saturday, semi-official news agency ISNA reported.

On January 29 three members of an Iranian bomb squad sent to the scene of an explosion in the provincial capital Zahedan were wounded when a second device blew up as they were trying to defuse it, police said at the time.

And in early December two people were killed and around 40 others wounded in the port city of Chabahar, also in Sistan Baluchistan, in an attack which Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif blamed on "foreign-backed terrorists" — a reference to Sunni Muslim extremists.

In October, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for abducting 12 Iranian security personnel near the border with Pakistan.

Link: https://www.news18.com/news/world/i...ns-revenge-at-funeral-of-victims-2038969.html

 

[Bean Pole]

Hmmmmm. Tick, tock.

ELINT News‏ @ELINTNews 3h3 hours ago
#UPDATE: Pakistan has reportedly relocated terrorists at launch pads along the LoC to nearby army camps. This could leave the Indian Army with the option of targeting Pakistan army installations & possible escalation of the conflict, a senior official said

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
As war hysteria reaches new levels in Delhi following Pulwama killing of 44 soldiers, Pakistan has gone in a state of high alert, background interviews with PM House, defence and FO officials confirm. 1/6

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
There is no official directive available bcoz this might create “panic” say officials on condition of anonymity & send economic shock waves. Also with the Saudi Crown Prince arriving tomorrow on an already delayed visit, a formal communication could complicate the situation. 2/6

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
However, all sensitive installations, border with India, LOC, LAC and even western border forces with Afghanistan are now in the highest alert mode. 3/6

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
Internal disruption such as terrorism on critical infrastructure and high profile attacks are also on the radar. 4/6

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
From raids across the border to missile launches to waves of terrorism, say officials, Pakistan is intently watching a full range of eventualities. “We are not leaving anything to chance and hopefully the Indians know that”, said one official. 5/6

ELINT News Retweeted
Syed Talat Hussain‏Verified account @TalatHussain12 7h7 hours ago
Interestingly, while PM Imran Khan is “generally aware of the situation” but has neither been given nor has sought detailed briefings on this count. 6/6

 

[Bean Pole]

ELINT News Retweeted
John Bolton
‏Verified account @AmbJohnBolton
14h14 hours ago

I expressed condolences to NSA Doval yesterday for the reprehensible terrorist attack on India. Pakistan must crack down on JeM and all terrorists operating from its territory. Countries should uphold UNSC responsibilities to deny safe haven and support for terrorists @nsaajit

 

[danielboon]

EndGameWW3
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Armed forces free to hit back, says PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack | india news | Hindustan Times

Armed forces free to hit back, says PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack
hindustantimes.com
9:10 PM · Feb 16, 2019 · https://t.co/JH4yqGSLVS?amp=1

 

[Bean Pole]

Daniel, what do you think? This escalation has a special feel to it. Not a good feel, I will say that.

 

[Doc1]

Daniel, what do you think? This escalation has a special feel to it. Not a good feel, I will say that.

I can't speak for Danielboone, but I agree that this imbroglio has an ominous feel to it. It is especially noteworthy that India and Iran seem to have developed some sort of alliance, if only temporary. As India is an official nuclear state and Iran is not, I would think any joint ops between the two countries would require that India provide Iran with a nuclear protection guarantee. Of course Pakistan, which is also a nuclear state, is a traditional ally of China, and China is a long time Indian adversary, things could get very serious, very quickly.

Best regards
Doc

 

[Mark D]

EndGameWW3
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Armed forces free to hit back, says PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack | india news | Hindustan Times

Armed forces free to hit back, says PM Modi on Pulwama terror attack
hindustantimes.com
9:10 PM · Feb 16, 2019 · https://t.co/JH4yqGSLVS?amp=1

Here's hoping the Indian Service Rifle isn't an example of how the rest of their military operates.

 

[Housecarl]

I can't speak for Danielboone, but I agree that this imbroglio has an ominous feel to it. It is especially noteworthy that India and Iran seem to have developed some sort of alliance, if only temporary. As India is an official nuclear state and Iran is not, I would think any joint ops between the two countries would require that India provide Iran with a nuclear protection guarantee. Of course Pakistan, which is also a nuclear state, is a traditional ally of China, and China is a long time Indian adversary, things could get very serious, very quickly.

Best regards
Doc

Adding to this brewing mess is where Saudi and the Gulf States, as well as Israel, sit in this mess. Israel and India have had a defense relationship for decades. Saudi relations with Pakistan and India have been "complicated".

When this really gets going, IMHO limiting it to "terrorist training bases" isn't going to cut it at this point for either India or Iran for both military and political reasons....The Pakistani military-intelligence complex may well have been too smart by half this time and this potential for conflict isn't likely to suit Beijing's planning either...

 

[Trivium Pursuit]

What I'm really wondering about, and what none of the intel I've seen here has even whispered, is Pakistan's ace in the hole....China. My SWAG is that one of two things is going on in Beijing at present:

A):They're thinking, real hard, & ordering the Chinese equivalent of takeout pizza, on 'is there some way we can take advantage of/benefit from this?

B): Too messy--as much as we love our brown brothers in Karachi, we of the thousand year strategy are going to sit this one out. But hey, we'll toss in humanitarian supplies and maybe a bunch of munitions during and after the fact, to Pakistan. And boy oh boy, what a great opportunity for us to learn what tactical nuclear warfare looks like on the ground!

 

[Housecarl]

What I'm really wondering about, and what none of the intel I've seen here has even whispered, is Pakistan's ace in the hole....China. My SWAG is that one of two things is going on in Beijing at present:

A):They're thinking, real hard, & ordering the Chinese equivalent of takeout pizza, on 'is there some way we can take advantage of/benefit from this?

B): Too messy--as much as we love our brown brothers in Karachi, we of the thousand year strategy are going to sit this one out. But hey, we'll toss in humanitarian supplies and maybe a bunch of munitions during and after the fact, to Pakistan. And boy oh boy, what a great opportunity for us to learn what tactical nuclear warfare looks like on the ground!

Yeah. If in fact the Indian PM has given the Indian General Staff "carte blanc" as he's publicly stated, the ongoing conversations within Islamabad, Beijing, Tehran and every other capital with an interest in the outcome is very likely cautiously frantic considering the flight times of Indian and Pakistani nuclear capable missiles from launch to impact. And with the possibility of it jumping right to that in the beginning, Beijing in particular has to figure the odds of them being "serviced" as well by Indian strategic forces, since once it "goes there" with Pakistan the jinn is already out of the bottle so for India why not? India is going to catch hell anyways and considering the situation now within the PRC, removing the top of the CCP is likelier than not to kick off a civil war and striking hard enough fast enough could be seen as the best move for the survival of India.

That very thinking, the worst case scenario, is going to color everyone else's which goes to the Guns of August 1914 Redux concerns I've already voiced. That mobilization race and rush to the borders was at a snail's pace when compared to this mess. We here in CONUS could be getting fallout reports with the weather forecast literally any day now. Either the other nuclear powers will some how talk these two down one more time or this is going to go so loud and dumb as to be beyond the comprehension and ability to describe. Just the fact that the US MSM at large has been pretty much ignoring this says a lot both in terms of competence and perhaps arguably self censorship...

 

[compchyk]

think about this also:

India and Pakistan are about to embark in the Mother of All Pissing Matches (including nukes)

Ever think how many US companies (like lemmings) offshored all their work to India?

MUCH more than what the media wants you to think (I just escaped one of the offshoring shops for a company based in Houston)

This has MUCH bigger ramifications - mark my word...

 

[Housecarl]

think about this also:

India and Pakistan are about to embark in the Mother of All Pissing Matches (including nukes)

Ever think how many US companies (like lemmings) offshored all their work to India?

MUCH more than what the media wants you to think (I just escaped one of the offshoring shops for a company based in Houston)

This has MUCH bigger ramifications - mark my word...

Yup. There's also the US and Coalition force in Afghanistan that's in this mess as well one way or another.

 

[Doc1]

Just the fact that the US MSM at large has been pretty much ignoring this says a lot both in terms of competence and perhaps arguably self censorship...

The MSM response to many things serves as a gauge of seriousness. We all know the MSM is controlled disinformation. We now have three nuclear-armed states on the brink of potential war and there's barely a peep out of any of the major news outlets. This, as much a anything, has my spidey senses tingling. I would've expected the usual analysts and pundits to be crowding the airwaves by now, but the MSM response has been as quiet as a submarine on silent running. Believe me, this goes much deeper than mere incompetence and there must be many heavy hitters forcing them to sit on the story.

Best regards
Doc

 

[The Mountain]

What I'm really wondering about, and what none of the intel I've seen here has even whispered, is Pakistan's ace in the hole....China. My SWAG is that one of two things is going on in Beijing at present:

A):They're thinking, real hard, & ordering the Chinese equivalent of takeout pizza, on 'is there some way we can take advantage of/benefit from this?

B): Too messy--as much as we love our brown brothers in Karachi, we of the thousand year strategy are going to sit this one out. But hey, we'll toss in humanitarian supplies and maybe a bunch of munitions during and after the fact, to Pakistan. And boy oh boy, what a great opportunity for us to learn what tactical nuclear warfare looks like on the ground!

My take is that China is quietly rubbing their hands over this. Pakistan is already halfway to being a vassal state of China anyway. The world movement to isolate Pak completely would simply drive Pak into China's arms that much faster. This is why China is refusing to allow Masood Azhar to be listed as a terrorist; they know Pak openly supports him, and this is their way of communicating to Pak that China is their only friend. China has supposedly also promised Pak that it will get Chinese troops to help if it needs them.


On a more general note, this whole incident has earmarks of being a failed "wag the dog". Indian news media has already reported that the Modi government received intel from US intelligence agencies about a week before the incident warning of IED attacks in Kashmir. Further, within the previous month (can't remember the exact date) Jaish-e Mohamed publicly (like in a speech) declared that they intended to hit India on Valentines day; there's at least one video of their speech on Youtube. So the Modi govt can't say they didn't know it might happen. On top of that, there are reports that the govt failed to sanitize the convoy route beforehand, which could have picked up the bomb. There's also at least one survivor who reports that the majority of the convoy had already moved out, but their three buses had been told to stay behind due to some vague "technical issue", and that they had to wait at least 10 minutes after the convoy had left. They did finally start moving, but were only allowed to proceed at a snail's pace. The security troops say they saw the bomb car coming, and knew they were going to get hit.

So, speculation: Modi is facing a tough election this time around; his government has had several high-profile failures and has further failed to make good on several critical campaign promises. It is widely believed that the whole demonetization was merely a ploy to skim money off the treasury. So, the thinking goes that he gets the reports of this pending attack. He and his advisers figure that the bomb will be only mildly damaging e.g. a few injured, maybe one killed. He decides to allow the attack, because a small attack like that will cause the opposing political parties to launch criticism of his governance which he can then point to as evidence that they don't really care about the good of the country, and just want to score political points. He can then make some superficial gestures to "punish" the perpetrators and ride to a reelection. His problem is that they badly underestimated the size of the bomb. They had no plan for any substantive response, but now they need to make one. None of the other parties criticized him; they all expressed support in this time of need. So Modi now looks bad; there is clear evidence they knew an attack could come but did nothing. The attack was huge, killing dozens, and the responsibility falls solely on the govt in power. Passions in the public have been inflamed to "do something this time". Modi knows that if he only makes token response, he'll look weak and will lose. If he launches the response that the public wants, and that the situation really demands, he'll be the PM who dragged India into another war, and likely lose because the other parties will tell everyone how they could have done better, especially since this time there's a real risk of it getting out of hand. It's likely a lose-lose situation at this point.

 

[Trivium Pursuit]

think about this also:

India and Pakistan are about to embark in the Mother of All Pissing Matches (including nukes)

Ever think how many US companies (like lemmings) offshored all their work to India?

MUCH more than what the media wants you to think (I just escaped one of the offshoring shops for a company based in Houston)

This has MUCH bigger ramifications - mark my word...

THIS. Huge and still ongoing; if you don't think so, just google Wipro, Infosys, or Tata, and watch your jaw drop. They've surprisingly big arms in this country, even employing a few Americans (!), but still turning around and handing a LOT of development work back to the subcontinent. And those 3 co's don't even account for the many companies that now have 'virtual workers' in India, working on various projects with them. About which, I'd be very surprised indeed if this current scenario has been considered in any way whatsoever, in US company contingency planning or disaster recovery. I have even seen at least one hospital system that offshored all support of the training classroom computing to India. Now remember, that's just the training computers; don't do one of these..., at least about hospitals.

In fact, this day is a very good day and time to get on your knees and THANK GOD, that EPIC, the #1 hospital charting and Electronic Medical Records System, is, 100% and completely, American. Thanks to the vision, drive and discipline of one VERY sharp clinic nurse named Judith Faulkner.

 

[Pinecone]

The silver lining is that there will be a lot fewer calls from "Microsoft."


Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

 

[Jeep]

The silver lining is that there will be a lot fewer calls from "Microsoft."


Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

And the FBI, IRS, Social Security, etc.

 

[mzkitty]

Our pals the Saudis:



Sarwar?
‏ @ferozwala
8m8 minutes ago

AFP news agency

#SaudiArabia signs agreement to invest $20 billion in #Pakistan

#BREAKING

 

[Trivium Pursuit]

China has supposedly also promised Pak that it will get Chinese troops to help if it needs them.

OH. That's very, very not good. The PLA has war-winning seas of excess 'bare branches' to lend. Is this in an agreement of public record, or intel scuttlebutt?

 

[mzkitty]

Aditya Raj Kaul
‏Verified account @AdityaRajKaul
1m1 minute ago

#BREAKING: Midnight Encounter rages between terrorists and security forces in #Pulwama of South Kashmir. 2-3 Pakistani Jaish-e-Muhammad terrorists are believed to be trapped by forces. Army, CRPF and J&K Police on the job. Pulwama is the same place where Jaish killed 40 CRPF men.

 

[Housecarl]

Our pals the Saudis:



Sarwar��
‏ @ferozwala
8m8 minutes ago

AFP news agency

#SaudiArabia signs agreement to invest $20 billion in #Pakistan

#BREAKING

Looks like the Saudis just reinvested in the Pakistani nuclear program if not in expat Pakistani troops and technical support as well....

 

[Bean Pole]

You guys are the best analysts in the business! Just wanted you to know that. More common sense & street smarts than all the capitals on earth!

 

[Housecarl]

From Pakistan's Daily Times....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://dailytimes.com.pk/355674/the-pulwama-attack-india-playing-power-politics-with-pakistan/

Commentary / Insight

The Pulwama attack-India playing power politics with Pakistan

Col (R) Muhammad Hanif
February 18, 2019

Immediately after the suicide car bomb on the Indian CRPF convoy a few days ago, Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi himself instantly blamed Pakistan for the attack. The allegation was made before even an inquiry was conducted. As per the news published in the Indian media, Modi has even permitted his armed forces to plan a response against Pakistan. This blame game against Pakistan was carried forward by Indian media and government officials in a hysterical manner.

While doing so, Indian leaders and media houses never acknowledged that Indian security forces themselves have committed so many atrocities and human rights violations on the people of Jammu and Kashmir themselves. The present generation of young Kashmiris has become frustrated and completely alienated from India. Now they can do anything to avenge their honour and dignity, which has been trampled on by the Indian security forces.

However, blaming Pakistan for anything happening in Jammu and Kashmir or India is a part of India’s plan to undermine the political, moral and diplomatic support that Pakistan is providing to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. India’s blame game about Pakistan is also meant to grab Jammu and Kashmir permanently and establish Indian hegemony in South Asia by neutralising Pakistan’s capacity to resist. This anti-Pakistan rhetoric might also help Modi get some additional votes in the upcoming general elections.

By this way India thinks that it can bring international sanctions on Pakistan, by accusing it of supporting terrorism, it hopes to limit our trade relations, economic assistance and investment as well as the supply of armaments from major military powers. However, failing to isolate Pakistan, India has also used Afghan soil to destabilise Balochistan.

To achieve its above mentioned objectives, India is playing power politics with Pakistan and cashing in on its close relationships with Washington and other international power-centres. India says that it will prepare a dossier on the Pulwama attack, blaming Pakistan, and present it to the FATF so that Pakistan is black listed, which will limit its economic assistance options. Moreover, India is also limiting its own trade with Pakistan. To implement its plans, India is refusing to hold a dialogue with Pakistan over Kashmir and other bilateral issues.

In view of the above it is advisable for Pakistan to devise a suitable counter strategy to fail the ongoing and future Indian designs. In this context, while Pakistan should focus on strengthening its economy by concentrating on the short and long term measures, especially the on time completion of the CPEC, its media should learn to pursue the national objectives as the Indian media do. Pakistan should also enhance the capacity of its diplomatic corps to counter India’s diplomatic offensive. The existing nuclear balance, notwithstanding, to properly respond to the Indian surgical strikes, Pakistan should ensure to also have conventional weapons of the matching capabilities, where we may not compete with the quantity, but we must have at least a minimum number of such weapons.

The writer is a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm…...

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1453816/saudi-arabia

Pakistan Army vows ‘to stand by Saudi brethren’

Updated 44 sec ago
Naimat Khan
February 18, 2019
01:29
248

- Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have always been close defense partners

KARACHI: Defense cooperation between Islamabad and Riyadh has withstood the test of time, said Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, head of the Pakistan army’s media wing.

“Pakistan is committed to standing by its Saudi brethren,” Ghafoor told Arab News.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a series of agreements to bolster investment in Pakistan with the Kingdom also planning to build a major oil refinery in the country.

Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s foreign minister, told Arab News that the investment initiatives proved that “strong ties (between the two countries) have been revived.”

He added: “Both countries also have strong security relations. If anyone would create chaos in or attack the Kingdom, Pakistan would stand by its brethren Saudi Arabia. We had been with the Kingdom in the past and we will stand by it in the future.”

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have historically been close defense partners. Pakistan helped the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) build and fly its first fighter jets. In 1969, Pakistan Air Force pilots flew the RSAF’s Lightning to thwart intrusions along the Kingdom’s southern border from south Yemen.

Over the next two decades, up to 15,000 Pakistani troops were posted in the Kingdom to strengthen security, and almost 13,000 troops and 6,000 advisers were stationed in Saudi Arabia until the Gulf War in 1991.

Under a 1982 protocol, cooperation was widened to include military training, defense production and sharing, and joint exercises. Pakistan’s armed forces have frequently taken part in joint military exercises inside Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan People’s Party Sen. Sehar Kamran, president of the Center for Pakistan and Gulf Studies, said that Pakistanis had always felt a special reverence for Saudi Arabia as the land where Islam was founded and developed.

“The leadership of Saudi Arabia and its government have been coordinating with Pakistan on many important issues, and share similarities on different regional and international matters,” she said.

Military cooperation had been mutual and not a one-way street, she added.

“Saudi Arabia sent its two naval ships to help Pakistan in its war against India 1971,” Kamran said. “The Kingdom has also unconditionally supported Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir.”

The Kingdom came to Pakistan’s aid in May 1998 — after it tested nuclear weapons — and promised to supply 50,000 barrels of free oil per day to help the country cope with likely economic sanctions.

Dr. Moonis Ahmar, a professor of international relations at Karachi University, said that Pakistan developed strong relations with Saudi Arabia during former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s regime.

“During Gen. Zia-ul-Haq’s government military cooperation between the two countries strengthened further,” Ahmar said, adding that a Pakistan army division was deployed on Saudi Arabia’s request to reclaim the Grand Mosque in Makkah after insurgents seized it in November 1979.

Security analyst Imtiaz Gul said relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were linked to the friendship between King Faisal and Bhutto. “These ties then extended to military cooperation,” he said.

The Saudis are indebted to Pakistan for the support it had extended to the royal family over the years, Gul said. Currently, Pakistan’s retired army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, commands a Saudi-led Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism.

“The Kingdom asking for Gen. Raheel to lead the Islamic military alliance is also a huge manifestation of its trust in Pakistan’s military,” he said.

In recent years, however, Pakistan has opted to stay out of a Saudi conflict with Yemen, adopting a policy of neutrality and non-intervention.

Kamran said while Pakistan had upheld its policy of non-intervention it was always ready to protect the holy land.

“Religious affinity, reverence for the two Holy Cities of Makkah and Madinah, a deep historical connection, as well as economic, social, and cultural bonds have united the people from these two lands in perpetuity,” she said.

“In spite of an evolving geopolitical and geostrategic landscape, the two have always been able to stand together on issues related to international peace and security.

“What sets this particular bilateral relationship apart is the absolute trust and mutual respect at heart, which has been an institutional policy of the state, irrespective of the government in power. Consequently, this all-weather friendship has withstood the test of time,” she said.

 

[Housecarl]

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Channeling anger: Pulwama and the limits of Indian power and influence

We should be angry that we are unable to find a diplomatic or military solution to Pakistani intransigence, writes Amb. T.P. Sreenivasan(retd.) for South Asia Monitor.

By Amb. T.P. Sreenivasan(retd.) Feb 17, 2019

After the unprecedented terrorist attack in Pulwama, we should be angry with Pakistan, we should be angry with Jaish-e-Mohamed (JeM) and we should be angry with the bomber, who was apparently a Kashmiri. But we should also be angry with ourselves that we have gone through the cycle of terrorism, anguish, anger, frustration and learning to live with the reality and again terrorism. We should be angry that we are unable to end this cycle. We should be angry that we are unable to find a diplomatic or military solution to Pakistani intransigence. We should be angry with our politicians, who use Jammu & Kashmir for their political purposes and not as a strategic challenge and believe that we can absorb the losses and carry on regardless. Our anger should have no limits.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke for the entire nation when he condemned the terrorist attack in Pulwama: "The terrorists...have made a big mistake. The forces behind this act of terrorism and those responsible for it will definitely be punished.”

“We will never forgive, we will never forget,” said the CRPF. India is in anguish and anger and is asking for vengeance. Modi announced that he has given the armed forces a free hand to take any action at any time at any place of their choice. We also pledged to isolate Pakistan in the international community through diplomatic means.

But there are limits to our power and influence. That will be demonstrated again in the next few days. We can do another strategic strike and inflict some damage on the terrorist camps and Pakistan army across the Line of Control. We can even bomb some of the Pakistani posts on the border and destroy their men and equipment. However, a large scale war has to be ruled out because of the change in the strategic context on account of the nuclear capability of the two countries.

Crossing the LoC is fraught with the danger of nuclear blackmail by Pakistan. No nuclear warheads may ever be launched, but Pakistan will threaten to use nuclear weapons on the ground that since the Indian army is more powerful and lethal, they need to multiply their force by resorting to nuclear arms. The moment that happens, the international community will flock to New Delhi and Islamabad to find a compromise. Fear of a nuclear conflagration will lead to various pressures being exercised to bring about a compromise. We cannot resist these pressures beyond a point and no punishment will be meted out to Pakistan. The lack of any economic leverage with Pakistan was demonstrated by our withdrawal of the ‘Most Favoured Nation’ status accorded to Pakistan, which will not dent Pakistan’s economy or trade. Pakistan had declined to accord the same status to India on the ground that it would be inappropriate to give MFN status to a country which is the least favoured in Pakistan’s eyes.

We have the power, but we do not have the freedom to exercise it the way we did in 1965 or 1971. The efforts President Bill Clinton exerted on July 4, 1999 to get Pakistan to withdraw from Kargil were precisely for fear of the two countries moving to a nuclear war. We shall face a version of that if we were to cross the LOC and attack Pakistan.

Where power cannot be exercised by declaring a conventional war, diplomacy becomes the answer. Our diplomacy in Pakistan should convince them that they have to pay a heavy price if they persist with terrorism. The other option is to seek to isolate Pakistan as a terrorist state, by sharing intelligence about the attack and Pakistan’s role in it. Major countries, particularly the permanent members of the UN Security Council and our neighbours have already been briefed to get them to condemn Pakistan and join in a protest, if not to take punitive action for masterminding the attack. Many countries have condemned terrorism in general terms, without specifying Pakistan’s direct responsibility in the dastardly act. This is fairly easy to do because there are formulations in many consensus resolutions of the United Nations, which have been endorsed by Pakistan itself, which often claims to be a victim of terrorism. But to expect any country to threaten any kind of punitive action against Pakistan will be unrealistic.

The positions that countries take on bilateral disputes tend to be based on certain principles, without taking sides and without considering merits. The US, for instance, strongly condemned the terror attack and called on all countries to “deny safe haven and support for terrorists.” The US State Department said it was "resolutely committed" to working with the Indian government to combat terrorism in all its forms. The statement said, "The US condemns in the strongest terms the terrorist attack today on an Indian Central Reserve Police Force convoy in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. We call on all countries to uphold their responsibilities pursuant to UN Security Council resolutions to deny safe haven and support for terrorists.”

There is nothing in this statement or other US comments to suggest that Pakistan is guilty of instigating terrorism. Such statements cannot lead to any political or economic action against Pakistan. In fact, when Pakistan is accused only of giving safe haven to terrorists and supporting them, Pakistan is being let off the hook.

If the present attack leads to a reconsideration of the US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, it will be a positive outcome. After all, terrorism that is supposed to have ended is very well and kicking and the US should realise that if it is not rooted out, their mission in Afghanistan will remain incomplete and terrorism a threat to the US itself.

The Chinese statement was even less specific about Pakistan. "We are deeply shocked by this attack. We express deep condolences and sympathy to the injured and bereaved families,” China said. Asked about China's stand on listing Masood Azhar as a global terrorist by the UN Security Council, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, "As for the issue of listing, I could tell you that the 1267 Committee of Security Council has a clear stipulation on the listing and procedure of the terrorist organisations. As to the listing of an individual, we have always upheld an earnest, responsible and professional manner," he said, adding,"JeM has been included in the UN Security Council terrorism sanctions list. China will continue to handle the relevant sanctions issue in a constructive and responsible manner." China has repeatedly said this while blocking efforts by India and other UNSC members to list Masood Azhar as a UN designated terrorist.

Even when France, Russia and others say they stand by India in its fight against terrorism, they may not have Pakistan in mind. Terrorism, in their mind, is not cross-border terrorism, but global terrorism like IS and others who pose a threat to them. Russia specifically stated at an Afghanistan related conference in India that cross-border terrorism was not a serious threat to international peace and security.

In other words, limits to the use of our military power and wielding our global influence place us in a dilemma, which will remain even in the face of the most gruesome terrorist attack. The biggest challenge for India today is to stop the cycle of violence emanating from Pakistan. Where and how we will break the cycle will be the determining factor in our struggle against terror. The nation should stand united with the government in whatever action it would take to deal with this menace.

(The author is a former Indian ambassador. He can be contacted at tpsreenivasan@gmail.com)

 

[danielboon]

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Pulwama Pinglin Encounter Update .. 04 army personal including a Major injured, evacuated to army base hospital Srinagar. Hiding militants could be affiliated with Jaish-e-Muhammad .. operation going on ..
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7:39 PM · Feb 17, 2019 ·