- Status
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Officially, Andrew was a Cat. 5 hurricane at landfall with 175 mph winds and a pressure of 922mb.
Jarhead
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1120 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...
.AT 11 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...
WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...OR 28.56 INCHES.
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY SECTION TO EMPHASIZE LOWER KEYS.
UPDATED STORM TIDES TO EMPHASIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
UPDATED WINDS TO EMPHASIZE LOWER KEYS AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS FOR
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
UPDATED RAINFALL TO REDUCE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
UPDATED TORNADO SECTION TO REDUCE REMAINING THREAT.
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS FOR CURRENT WARNING STATUS AND ADJUST EXPECTED
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC SIDE WATERS...OUT TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND FLORIDA
BAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY OFF THE ROADS IN THE LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT...
WHERE PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...WILL CONTINUE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SQUALLS. RESIDENTS WHO EVACUATED SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY AT NOON...ONCE OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IS CLEAR OF DEBRIS. VISITORS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THE
KEYS STARTING ON THURSDAY.
THE FOLLOWING STREETS IN KEY WEST SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC...SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BOULEVARD AND THE SOUTHERN ENDS
OF DUVAL...SIMONTON AND WHITEHEAD STREETS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO
DRIVE ON ANY STREET WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. LOWER KEYS AND
FISHERMENS HOSPITAL EMERGENCY ROOMS HAVE REOPENED...AND MARINERS
HOSPITAL EXPECTS TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. ALL HOSPITALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FULLY OPERATIONAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANYONE WITH SCHEDULED APPOINTMENTS SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. COUNTY AND
STATE PARKS MAY BEGIN REOPENING ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE
PLANNING TO REOPEN ON THURSDAY. MOST STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL
BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT PERSONNEL SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. ASSUMING
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...
COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AND GENERAL AVIATION SHOULD RESUME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD STAY INDOORS
DURING PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS CONFINED
TO KEY WEST AND VICINITY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES WILL COME FROM THE
ATLANTIC SIDE. THESE WATER LEVELS WOULD CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IN LOW LYING AREAS IN THE LOWER KEYS...SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON WEDNESDAY AT SEVERAL LOW
LYING AREAS IN KEY WEST...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH ROOSEVELT...
ATLANTIC BLVD AND SEVERAL STREETS NEAR SOUTHERNMOST POINT.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING
TIMES...
IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY
IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY
IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY
...WINDS...
PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WITHIN RAIN BANDS AND
SQUALLS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
SQUALLS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
KEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN OCCASIONAL SQUALLS. THE AREAS
RECEIVING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PONDING
OF FRESH WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.
...TORNADOES...
THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS..WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
ALL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS REPLACED THE
WARNING FOR THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND FOR
FLORIDA BAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER KEYS OUT
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND IN
FLORIDA BAY...WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...
EXCEPT 14 TO 19 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1120 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...
.AT 11 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...
WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...OR 28.56 INCHES.
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY SECTION TO EMPHASIZE LOWER KEYS.
UPDATED STORM TIDES TO EMPHASIZE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
UPDATED WINDS TO EMPHASIZE LOWER KEYS AND REDUCE WIND SPEEDS FOR
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
UPDATED RAINFALL TO REDUCE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS.
UPDATED TORNADO SECTION TO REDUCE REMAINING THREAT.
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS FOR CURRENT WARNING STATUS AND ADJUST EXPECTED
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC SIDE WATERS...OUT TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND FLORIDA
BAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY OFF THE ROADS IN THE LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT...
WHERE PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...WILL CONTINUE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SQUALLS. RESIDENTS WHO EVACUATED SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN STARTING
WEDNESDAY AT NOON...ONCE OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IS CLEAR OF DEBRIS. VISITORS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THE
KEYS STARTING ON THURSDAY.
THE FOLLOWING STREETS IN KEY WEST SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC...SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BOULEVARD AND THE SOUTHERN ENDS
OF DUVAL...SIMONTON AND WHITEHEAD STREETS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO
DRIVE ON ANY STREET WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. LOWER KEYS AND
FISHERMENS HOSPITAL EMERGENCY ROOMS HAVE REOPENED...AND MARINERS
HOSPITAL EXPECTS TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. ALL HOSPITALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FULLY OPERATIONAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANYONE WITH SCHEDULED APPOINTMENTS SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. COUNTY AND
STATE PARKS MAY BEGIN REOPENING ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE
PLANNING TO REOPEN ON THURSDAY. MOST STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL
BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT PERSONNEL SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. ASSUMING
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...
COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AND GENERAL AVIATION SHOULD RESUME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD STAY INDOORS
DURING PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS CONFINED
TO KEY WEST AND VICINITY. THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES WILL COME FROM THE
ATLANTIC SIDE. THESE WATER LEVELS WOULD CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IN LOW LYING AREAS IN THE LOWER KEYS...SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON WEDNESDAY AT SEVERAL LOW
LYING AREAS IN KEY WEST...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH ROOSEVELT...
ATLANTIC BLVD AND SEVERAL STREETS NEAR SOUTHERNMOST POINT.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE FOLLOWING
TIMES...
IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY
IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY
IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY
...WINDS...
PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WITHIN RAIN BANDS AND
SQUALLS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
SQUALLS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
KEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN OCCASIONAL SQUALLS. THE AREAS
RECEIVING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PONDING
OF FRESH WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.
...TORNADOES...
THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS..WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
ALL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE LOWER KEYS...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS REPLACED THE
WARNING FOR THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND FOR
FLORIDA BAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER KEYS OUT
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND IN
FLORIDA BAY...WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...
EXCEPT 14 TO 19 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
Mail Lady
Inactive
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100847
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL POUNDING WESTERN CUBA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM KEY WEST
EASTWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 465 MILES...750 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 100847
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL POUNDING WESTERN CUBA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM KEY WEST
EASTWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 465 MILES...750 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 610 am EDT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Satellite imagery early this morning indicates that Ike is becoming better organized. An area of very deep convection has developed near the center and there are a numerous number of cyclonically curved bands.
Ike is a large storm in overall size and is still producing tropical storm force winds over western Cuba and a portion of the westernmost Florida Keys.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft recorded a minimum central pressure of 963 millibars and maximum winds of 85 mph. All indications are that Ike has begun to recover from the many hours of interaction with land.
I suspect that those maximum winds will try to catch up to the minimum pressure, which at this point, equals a borderline Category 2-Category 3 hurricane and I would not be at all surprised to see intensification to at least middle Category 2 strength within the next 12 to 24 hours and then further strengthening thereafter.
Ike is expected to move over a couple of warm eddies associated with the loop current and tracks within a favorable upper-level environment.
The latest GFDL model forecasts Ike to peak at Category 4 strength from Thursday afternoon through Friday and make landfall as a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane late Friday night.
The latest HWRF model forecasts Ike to also peak at Category 4 strength by Friday and make landfall as a upper end Category 3 or low end Category 4 hurricane on Saturday morning.
I continue to believe that Ike will strengthen to at least a mid to upper Category 3 hurricane (120 to 130 mph) on Thursday and very possibly Category 4 strength and maintaining that intensity right through landfall, which is anticipated to be around dawn Saturday morning. Therefore, we are looking at the very real and dangerous potential for a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 landfall on the Texas coast around dawn Saturday morning.
Ike is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 8 mph early this morning around the southwestern edge of a strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
The latest global models are forecasting that the ridge of high pressure will build and expand westward forcing Ike on a general west-northwest track through Friday. After Friday, the hurricane is forecast to turn more to the northwest and north in response to a eroding ridge of high pressure caused by an approaching trough of low pressure.
When exactly this northwest and north turn will take place remains somewhat in question.
The latest track model guidance are still spread out somewhat on landfall points.
The European model is forecasting a landfall near Port O' Connor on Saturday morning.
The GFS model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi late Friday night. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall somewhere between Freeport and Galveston late Friday night.
Both the GFDL and HWRF models are forecasting a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Island late Friday night or Saturday morning.
The consensus models are forecasting a landfall in an area between Port Lavaca and Corpus Christi.
Ok, here is my thinking as of early this morning: I think Ike will end up making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport around dawn Saturday morning. This area is centered right on an area around Matagorda Island and Port Lavaca. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as at least a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 hurricane.
Even though my confidence for a landfall in the Matagorda Island/Port Lavaca area is growing, I still would like to note that the forecast track of Ike is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and some effects from the storm will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.
With the current forecast track in mind, tropical storm force winds will reach the coast of Texas as early as Friday morning with tropical storm force winds potentially reaching metro Houston by midday Friday.
The tropical storm force winds will extend out as far as 200 miles or so from the center. The key thing right now is to watch the overall model trends over the next day or so as I anticipate a couple of more model shifts before the model guidance finally locks into an landfall area.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Thursday morning.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 610 am EDT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Satellite imagery early this morning indicates that Ike is becoming better organized. An area of very deep convection has developed near the center and there are a numerous number of cyclonically curved bands.
Ike is a large storm in overall size and is still producing tropical storm force winds over western Cuba and a portion of the westernmost Florida Keys.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft recorded a minimum central pressure of 963 millibars and maximum winds of 85 mph. All indications are that Ike has begun to recover from the many hours of interaction with land.
I suspect that those maximum winds will try to catch up to the minimum pressure, which at this point, equals a borderline Category 2-Category 3 hurricane and I would not be at all surprised to see intensification to at least middle Category 2 strength within the next 12 to 24 hours and then further strengthening thereafter.
Ike is expected to move over a couple of warm eddies associated with the loop current and tracks within a favorable upper-level environment.
The latest GFDL model forecasts Ike to peak at Category 4 strength from Thursday afternoon through Friday and make landfall as a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane late Friday night.
The latest HWRF model forecasts Ike to also peak at Category 4 strength by Friday and make landfall as a upper end Category 3 or low end Category 4 hurricane on Saturday morning.
I continue to believe that Ike will strengthen to at least a mid to upper Category 3 hurricane (120 to 130 mph) on Thursday and very possibly Category 4 strength and maintaining that intensity right through landfall, which is anticipated to be around dawn Saturday morning. Therefore, we are looking at the very real and dangerous potential for a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 landfall on the Texas coast around dawn Saturday morning.
Ike is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 8 mph early this morning around the southwestern edge of a strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
The latest global models are forecasting that the ridge of high pressure will build and expand westward forcing Ike on a general west-northwest track through Friday. After Friday, the hurricane is forecast to turn more to the northwest and north in response to a eroding ridge of high pressure caused by an approaching trough of low pressure.
When exactly this northwest and north turn will take place remains somewhat in question.
The latest track model guidance are still spread out somewhat on landfall points.
The European model is forecasting a landfall near Port O' Connor on Saturday morning.
The GFS model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi late Friday night. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall somewhere between Freeport and Galveston late Friday night.
Both the GFDL and HWRF models are forecasting a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Island late Friday night or Saturday morning.
The consensus models are forecasting a landfall in an area between Port Lavaca and Corpus Christi.
Ok, here is my thinking as of early this morning: I think Ike will end up making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport around dawn Saturday morning. This area is centered right on an area around Matagorda Island and Port Lavaca. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as at least a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 hurricane.
Even though my confidence for a landfall in the Matagorda Island/Port Lavaca area is growing, I still would like to note that the forecast track of Ike is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and some effects from the storm will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.
With the current forecast track in mind, tropical storm force winds will reach the coast of Texas as early as Friday morning with tropical storm force winds potentially reaching metro Houston by midday Friday.
The tropical storm force winds will extend out as far as 200 miles or so from the center. The key thing right now is to watch the overall model trends over the next day or so as I anticipate a couple of more model shifts before the model guidance finally locks into an landfall area.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Thursday morning.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Evacuations Begin As Ike Heads For Texas
Authorities Monitoring Main Road Out Of Corpus Christi, Set To Bus Out The Vulnerable
McALLEN, Texas, Sept. 10, 2008
(CBS/AP) Hurricane Ike barreled across the warm, energizing waters of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on its way toward the Texas coast after crashing through Cuba's tobacco country and toppling aging Havana buildings.
Forecasters said the Category 1 storm was already strengthening over open waters after leaving Cuba and could grow into a massive Category 3 storm before slamming into Texas, northern Mexico or western Louisiana.
The forecast prompted Texas officials to go into the initial phases of evacuation mode.
Residents of the Corpus Christi area who have special medical needs were to be put on buses Wednesday morning and taken to San Antonio, and state troopers and local police were to guide traffic along an evacuation route, Interstate 37.
Emergency officials also prepared to evacuate a million people from the impoverished Rio Grande Valley. Almost 1,000 buses were lined up in case the need arose to move out the many poor and elderly people who have no cars.
Texas put 7,500 National Guard members on standby Tuesday and urged coastal residents to stock up on supplies.
Ike has already killed at least 80 people in the Caribbean.
Cuban state television said some 2.6 million people - nearly a fourth of the island's population - sought refuge from Ike, which killed four people and shredded hundreds of homes as it swept across the country.
As it left Cuba, Hurricane Ike delivered a punishing blow to towns such as Los Palacios, which already suffered a direct hit from a Category-4 Hurricane Gustav on Aug. 30.
In a poor neighborhood along the train tracks, the combined fury of Ike and Gustav left nearly two-thirds of the wooden homes without roofs or completely leveled.
"The first one left me something, but this one left me nothing," said Olga Atiaga, a 53-year-old housewife. Gustav obliterated her roof and some walls. Then Ike blew away a mattress and smashed the kitchen sink.
"I don't even have anything to sleep on," she said.
Odalis Cruz, a 45-year-old housing inspector, said she evacuated to a shelter in the town's rice mill when it became clear Ike was following Gustav's path through Pinar del Rio, the westernmost province where Cuba produces tobacco used in its famous cigars.
I'm ready to move to Canada! We have spent eight days drying out things, cleaning everything, sleeping on the floor, and now we are hit again.
"We repaired the roof two days ago and this one took the new one," she said. "I'm ready to move to Canada! We have spent eight days drying out things, cleaning everything, sleeping on the floor, and now we are hit again."
Gustav damaged at least 100,000 homes but didn't kill anyone because of massive evacuations. Cubans were ordered to evacuate for Ike as well, with those in low-lying or wooden homes seeking safety with friends or relatives in sturdier structures. Others were taken to government shelters.
State television said two men were killed removing an antenna from a roof, a woman died when her home collapsed and a man was killed by a falling tree.
Evacuations are not mandatory except for pregnant women and small children, but in an authoritarian state, few people ignore the government's advice.
In Havana, towering waves broke over the seaside Malecon promenade as downpours soaked historic but crumbling buildings in the capital's picturesque older areas. Some of the most dilapidated structures collapsed, including four houses on a single block.
While Ike was expected to strengthen before making landfall again, oil prices closed below $104 a barrel for the first time since early April, in part because traders were betting Ike would miss critical Gulf Coast oil installations.
Mexican officials warned that unrelated heavy rains in the northern part of the country had caused more than a dozen dams to reach capacity or spill over. If Ike brings more rain to the area, evacuations may be needed.
Early Wednesday, Ike was located 100 miles north-northeast of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba and moving west-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained near 80 mph, still at Category 1 storm.
Meanwhile Tropical Storm Lowell was off Mexico's Pacific coast, projected to cut across the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday and emerge over the Gulf of California near the town of Loreto, popular with U.S. tourists. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, but was expected to weaken before hitting land.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/10/world/main4433699.shtml?source=RSSattr=U.S._4433699
Authorities Monitoring Main Road Out Of Corpus Christi, Set To Bus Out The Vulnerable
McALLEN, Texas, Sept. 10, 2008
(CBS/AP) Hurricane Ike barreled across the warm, energizing waters of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday on its way toward the Texas coast after crashing through Cuba's tobacco country and toppling aging Havana buildings.
Forecasters said the Category 1 storm was already strengthening over open waters after leaving Cuba and could grow into a massive Category 3 storm before slamming into Texas, northern Mexico or western Louisiana.
The forecast prompted Texas officials to go into the initial phases of evacuation mode.
Residents of the Corpus Christi area who have special medical needs were to be put on buses Wednesday morning and taken to San Antonio, and state troopers and local police were to guide traffic along an evacuation route, Interstate 37.
Emergency officials also prepared to evacuate a million people from the impoverished Rio Grande Valley. Almost 1,000 buses were lined up in case the need arose to move out the many poor and elderly people who have no cars.
Texas put 7,500 National Guard members on standby Tuesday and urged coastal residents to stock up on supplies.
Ike has already killed at least 80 people in the Caribbean.
Cuban state television said some 2.6 million people - nearly a fourth of the island's population - sought refuge from Ike, which killed four people and shredded hundreds of homes as it swept across the country.
As it left Cuba, Hurricane Ike delivered a punishing blow to towns such as Los Palacios, which already suffered a direct hit from a Category-4 Hurricane Gustav on Aug. 30.
In a poor neighborhood along the train tracks, the combined fury of Ike and Gustav left nearly two-thirds of the wooden homes without roofs or completely leveled.
"The first one left me something, but this one left me nothing," said Olga Atiaga, a 53-year-old housewife. Gustav obliterated her roof and some walls. Then Ike blew away a mattress and smashed the kitchen sink.
"I don't even have anything to sleep on," she said.
Odalis Cruz, a 45-year-old housing inspector, said she evacuated to a shelter in the town's rice mill when it became clear Ike was following Gustav's path through Pinar del Rio, the westernmost province where Cuba produces tobacco used in its famous cigars.
I'm ready to move to Canada! We have spent eight days drying out things, cleaning everything, sleeping on the floor, and now we are hit again.
"We repaired the roof two days ago and this one took the new one," she said. "I'm ready to move to Canada! We have spent eight days drying out things, cleaning everything, sleeping on the floor, and now we are hit again."
Gustav damaged at least 100,000 homes but didn't kill anyone because of massive evacuations. Cubans were ordered to evacuate for Ike as well, with those in low-lying or wooden homes seeking safety with friends or relatives in sturdier structures. Others were taken to government shelters.
State television said two men were killed removing an antenna from a roof, a woman died when her home collapsed and a man was killed by a falling tree.
Evacuations are not mandatory except for pregnant women and small children, but in an authoritarian state, few people ignore the government's advice.
In Havana, towering waves broke over the seaside Malecon promenade as downpours soaked historic but crumbling buildings in the capital's picturesque older areas. Some of the most dilapidated structures collapsed, including four houses on a single block.
While Ike was expected to strengthen before making landfall again, oil prices closed below $104 a barrel for the first time since early April, in part because traders were betting Ike would miss critical Gulf Coast oil installations.
Mexican officials warned that unrelated heavy rains in the northern part of the country had caused more than a dozen dams to reach capacity or spill over. If Ike brings more rain to the area, evacuations may be needed.
Early Wednesday, Ike was located 100 miles north-northeast of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba and moving west-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained near 80 mph, still at Category 1 storm.
Meanwhile Tropical Storm Lowell was off Mexico's Pacific coast, projected to cut across the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday and emerge over the Gulf of California near the town of Loreto, popular with U.S. tourists. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, but was expected to weaken before hitting land.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/10/world/main4433699.shtml?source=RSSattr=U.S._4433699
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Texas Begins Evacuating Medically Fragile
Some Texas counties Ask Medically Fragile to Evacuate in Advance of Hurricane Ike
By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN Associated Press Writer
McALLEN, Texas September 10, 2008 (AP)
Some Texas residents who have special medical needs in the Corpus Christi area were being told to evacuate in advance of Hurricane Ike as it steams into the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is now a Category 1 but could regain strength as it nears the U.S.To help these residents who need to get out of harm's way, Nueces County expected to set up two intake areas on Wednesday at 10 a.m. to take residents by bus to San Antonio. Meanwhile, Lt. Rhonda Lawson with the Texas Department of Public Safety in Corpus Christi said plans were in place to open up the evacuation route on Interstate 37 beginning at 9 a.m. Wednesday.
Texas emergency officials were taking no chances with the lives of its medically fragile citizens. Forecasters said Ike could hit on Saturday morning just about anywhere along the Texas coast, with the most likely spot close to the Corpus Christi area.
"For people designated as special medical needs who have a health condition that will require them to be out of harm's way ... we will assist them in boarding state furnished transportation and we'll assist them in getting to San Antonio," said Nueces County Judge Loyd Neal. He said the order is a voluntary evacuation. County officials have not ordered a full evacuation as they await updates on Hurricane Ike.
The American Red Cross, San Antonio chapter, said in a statement that its mobile and fixed feeding trucks were being moved into place to help evacuees.
Opening up I-37 should facilitate smoother traffic flow, Lawson said.
"It gives people an extra lane of travel and it starts in Corpus Christi and it goes through San Antonio. Normally you have two lanes of travel going northbound and this gives a third lane of travel. Our troopers will be out monitoring the flow traffic to make sure no one breaks down," said Lawson.
Along with state troopers, more than 35 Corpus Christi police officers will help guide traffic along I-37, said Police Chief Bryan Smith in Wednesday's edition of the Corpus Christi Caller-Times.
Texas officials were encouraging residents in the path of Hurricane Ike to do three things — listen to what local officials say, monitor weather reports and gas up, now.
(rest of the story continued here...http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=5767263
Jarhead
Some Texas counties Ask Medically Fragile to Evacuate in Advance of Hurricane Ike
By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN Associated Press Writer
McALLEN, Texas September 10, 2008 (AP)
Some Texas residents who have special medical needs in the Corpus Christi area were being told to evacuate in advance of Hurricane Ike as it steams into the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is now a Category 1 but could regain strength as it nears the U.S.To help these residents who need to get out of harm's way, Nueces County expected to set up two intake areas on Wednesday at 10 a.m. to take residents by bus to San Antonio. Meanwhile, Lt. Rhonda Lawson with the Texas Department of Public Safety in Corpus Christi said plans were in place to open up the evacuation route on Interstate 37 beginning at 9 a.m. Wednesday.
Texas emergency officials were taking no chances with the lives of its medically fragile citizens. Forecasters said Ike could hit on Saturday morning just about anywhere along the Texas coast, with the most likely spot close to the Corpus Christi area.
"For people designated as special medical needs who have a health condition that will require them to be out of harm's way ... we will assist them in boarding state furnished transportation and we'll assist them in getting to San Antonio," said Nueces County Judge Loyd Neal. He said the order is a voluntary evacuation. County officials have not ordered a full evacuation as they await updates on Hurricane Ike.
The American Red Cross, San Antonio chapter, said in a statement that its mobile and fixed feeding trucks were being moved into place to help evacuees.
Opening up I-37 should facilitate smoother traffic flow, Lawson said.
"It gives people an extra lane of travel and it starts in Corpus Christi and it goes through San Antonio. Normally you have two lanes of travel going northbound and this gives a third lane of travel. Our troopers will be out monitoring the flow traffic to make sure no one breaks down," said Lawson.
Along with state troopers, more than 35 Corpus Christi police officers will help guide traffic along I-37, said Police Chief Bryan Smith in Wednesday's edition of the Corpus Christi Caller-Times.
Texas officials were encouraging residents in the path of Hurricane Ike to do three things — listen to what local officials say, monitor weather reports and gas up, now.
(rest of the story continued here...http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=5767263
Jarhead
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
sassy
Veteran Member
Thanks Jarhead - sometimes only you are posting but people are reading and checking in. You are a jewel.
Regarding last post with article..."impoverished Rio Grande Valley"
I guess what they meant was the areas with people who are too poor to evacuate? The Valley in not impoverished. Good Grief.
South Padre Island, McAllen, Harlingen, Brownsville?????
Regarding last post with article..."impoverished Rio Grande Valley"
I guess what they meant was the areas with people who are too poor to evacuate? The Valley in not impoverished. Good Grief.
South Padre Island, McAllen, Harlingen, Brownsville?????
Yes, thanks Jarhead. We're going to Cancun next Tuesday so I've been following your thread every day. I realize it sounds superficial worrying about a vacation when so many will be worrying about losing their homes. Prayers for all in the way of this storm.
Last edited:
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101159
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 85.3W
OR ABOUT 145 MILES/230 KM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT
430 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N BETWEEN 79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVANA CUBA
REPORTED 2.74 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND
53W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT MAY
BE RELATED TO THE WAVE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.
...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 8N33W 9N37W 8N48W 8N51W 7N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 19N103W 25N101W BEYOND 31N98W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND THE MEXICO RIDGE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE IKE ALSO COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N50W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 29N59W TO A THIRD CENTER NEAR 25N68W TO 22N69W
AND 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N9W IN MOROCCO
TO 27N10W...THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 27N10W TO 24N20W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N32W TO ANOTHER CENTER NEAR
20N39W TO 15N42W TO 11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N TO 20N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N49W 20N54W 21N59W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 101159
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 85.3W
OR ABOUT 145 MILES/230 KM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT
430 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N BETWEEN 79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVANA CUBA
REPORTED 2.74 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT
10/0000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND
53W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT MAY
BE RELATED TO THE WAVE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.
...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 8N33W 9N37W 8N48W 8N51W 7N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 19N103W 25N101W BEYOND 31N98W. BROAD MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND THE MEXICO RIDGE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE IKE ALSO COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N50W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 29N59W TO A THIRD CENTER NEAR 25N68W TO 22N69W
AND 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N9W IN MOROCCO
TO 27N10W...THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 27N10W TO 24N20W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N32W TO ANOTHER CENTER NEAR
20N39W TO 15N42W TO 11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N
TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N TO 20N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N49W 20N54W 21N59W.
$$
MT
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...
690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...
690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.
THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.
THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Texans get ready as Hurricane Ike heads their way
(CNN) -- Residents along part of the Texas Gulf Coast have been told to leave Wednesday morning after Hurricane Ike left Cuba and began to gain strength in the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Officials in the Galveston area's Brazoria County ordered mandatory evacuation for one ZIP code and for people with special needs, beginning at 10 a.m. CT (11 a.m. ET), CNN affiliate KTRK-TV in Houston reported.
Perhaps more important to many in Texas, dozens of high school football games in cities and towns along the coast were rescheduled from Friday to Thursday night to avoid playing in the storm, CNN affiliate KGBT-TV reported.
The National Hurricane Center indicated Ike likely would come ashore along the Texas coast between Galveston and Brownsville as a major hurricane. But forecasters stressed the unpredictability of the storm, which could change course at the last minute. Track the storm »
"It's very frustrating for all of us," said Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas. "We're on alert, and we will continue to monitor this storm. I wish we could be clearer about where it's going."
Ike's center left western Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, having hit it with 75-mph winds, high surf and torrential rains in its second Cuban landfall in three days, the hurricane center said.
At 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, Ike, with 85-mph winds, was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 145 miles north of the western tip of Cuba and 435 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the center. The wind speed of the storm increased by 10 mph overnight.
Forecasters said Ike is likely to make landfall around Port O'Connor, Texas, late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph to 130 mph.
Tropical storm-force winds extended to the Florida Keys, though a storm warning for Key West was dropped Wednesday morning. iReport.com: Big waves hit Florida Keys
Thomas warned residents to stock up on nonperishable items, including pet food and diapers, and to prepare for going without electricity.
Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.
Thomas said she could call for voluntary evacuations of the West End by Wednesday morning, depending on forecasts.
By Tuesday night, officials in Corpus Christi, Texas, had called for the evacuations of special-needs residents beginning Wednesday morning. They also called for the relocation of high-profile vehicles -- including vans, motor homes, travel trailers and hitched boats -- that could hinder traffic if expanded evacuations become necessary.
The Texas Department of Transportation said it expected to open a shoulder of northbound Interstate 37 to traffic -- from coastal Corpus Christi to U.S. 281 roughly 80 miles inland -- on Wednesday morning to help people trying to leave the city.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry put 7,500 National Guard members on standby Tuesday, his office said. Watch where Ike may be headed along the U.S. coast »
In Cuba, evacuations appeared to have saved lives. Four deaths were reported from the storm, according to the Cuban government. The Cuban Civil Defense brought buses or trucks to take people to shelters. See the damage from the storm »
Cuban state television reported that two people were killed when they tried to remove an antenna, The Associated Press said. One man died when a tree crashed into his home, and a woman died when her home's roof collapsed, according to the AP.
The storm shredded hundreds of homes and caused some dilapidated buildings in Havana's older areas to collapse, the AP reported.
Teresa Tejeda, who is in her 70s, told the AP she joined several hundred other elderly people at a government shelter because she was too scared to stay in her old apartment building.
"My house has really bad walls, and I feel much more secure here," Tejeda said. Watch as winds and waves pound Cuba »
The United States, which provided $100,000 in emergency aid to communist-run Cuba through private aid agencies after Hurricane Gustav hit the island August 30, said Tuesday that it was considering additional emergency aid for Cuba because of Ike.
Also, the United States said it will lift restrictions on cash and humanitarian assistance sent to Cuba for the next 90 days. That will allow nongovernmental organizations to provide assistance and cash donations. Watch what Ike did to Cuba »
Flooding and rains from Ike's outer bands have been blamed for 70 deaths in Haiti, bringing that country's death toll from four recent major storms -- including Fay, Gustav and Hanna -- to 341, said Abel Nazaire, deputy head of Haiti's Civil Protection Service.
(CNN) -- Residents along part of the Texas Gulf Coast have been told to leave Wednesday morning after Hurricane Ike left Cuba and began to gain strength in the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Officials in the Galveston area's Brazoria County ordered mandatory evacuation for one ZIP code and for people with special needs, beginning at 10 a.m. CT (11 a.m. ET), CNN affiliate KTRK-TV in Houston reported.
Perhaps more important to many in Texas, dozens of high school football games in cities and towns along the coast were rescheduled from Friday to Thursday night to avoid playing in the storm, CNN affiliate KGBT-TV reported.
The National Hurricane Center indicated Ike likely would come ashore along the Texas coast between Galveston and Brownsville as a major hurricane. But forecasters stressed the unpredictability of the storm, which could change course at the last minute. Track the storm »
"It's very frustrating for all of us," said Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas. "We're on alert, and we will continue to monitor this storm. I wish we could be clearer about where it's going."
Ike's center left western Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, having hit it with 75-mph winds, high surf and torrential rains in its second Cuban landfall in three days, the hurricane center said.
At 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, Ike, with 85-mph winds, was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 145 miles north of the western tip of Cuba and 435 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the center. The wind speed of the storm increased by 10 mph overnight.
Forecasters said Ike is likely to make landfall around Port O'Connor, Texas, late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph to 130 mph.
Tropical storm-force winds extended to the Florida Keys, though a storm warning for Key West was dropped Wednesday morning. iReport.com: Big waves hit Florida Keys
Thomas warned residents to stock up on nonperishable items, including pet food and diapers, and to prepare for going without electricity.
Galveston City Manager Steve LeBlanc issued a warning to residents of the city's West End, citing forecasters' estimates that the area could get tides of 6 feet above normal if the storm arrives there. The West End is the area of Galveston most susceptible to flooding, LeBlanc said.
Thomas said she could call for voluntary evacuations of the West End by Wednesday morning, depending on forecasts.
By Tuesday night, officials in Corpus Christi, Texas, had called for the evacuations of special-needs residents beginning Wednesday morning. They also called for the relocation of high-profile vehicles -- including vans, motor homes, travel trailers and hitched boats -- that could hinder traffic if expanded evacuations become necessary.
The Texas Department of Transportation said it expected to open a shoulder of northbound Interstate 37 to traffic -- from coastal Corpus Christi to U.S. 281 roughly 80 miles inland -- on Wednesday morning to help people trying to leave the city.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry put 7,500 National Guard members on standby Tuesday, his office said. Watch where Ike may be headed along the U.S. coast »
In Cuba, evacuations appeared to have saved lives. Four deaths were reported from the storm, according to the Cuban government. The Cuban Civil Defense brought buses or trucks to take people to shelters. See the damage from the storm »
Cuban state television reported that two people were killed when they tried to remove an antenna, The Associated Press said. One man died when a tree crashed into his home, and a woman died when her home's roof collapsed, according to the AP.
The storm shredded hundreds of homes and caused some dilapidated buildings in Havana's older areas to collapse, the AP reported.
Teresa Tejeda, who is in her 70s, told the AP she joined several hundred other elderly people at a government shelter because she was too scared to stay in her old apartment building.
"My house has really bad walls, and I feel much more secure here," Tejeda said. Watch as winds and waves pound Cuba »
The United States, which provided $100,000 in emergency aid to communist-run Cuba through private aid agencies after Hurricane Gustav hit the island August 30, said Tuesday that it was considering additional emergency aid for Cuba because of Ike.
Also, the United States said it will lift restrictions on cash and humanitarian assistance sent to Cuba for the next 90 days. That will allow nongovernmental organizations to provide assistance and cash donations. Watch what Ike did to Cuba »
Flooding and rains from Ike's outer bands have been blamed for 70 deaths in Haiti, bringing that country's death toll from four recent major storms -- including Fay, Gustav and Hanna -- to 341, said Abel Nazaire, deputy head of Haiti's Civil Protection Service.
Txkstew
Veteran Member
They're allready moving the computer models back up the coast. This is starting to look like a "Rita" tract. The Southern jet stream is building into New Mexico, and moving East. I think its going to turn the storm more to the North than projected. On the Satellite loop, it's tracking North of the official tract already. Mid gulf coast people need to watch this close this afternoon and tonight.
Oh, don't worry. We are watching, waiting and praying right along with our Texas neighbors as Rita is still very fresh in our minds. We remember all too well that Rita was suppose to hit Brownsville, then Galveston......well, you know the end result there. Another shift north (east) is expected in the 2pm advisory as more models have adjusted further north with the new recon information injested into their models. We are boarded, packed and ready to roll, if and when it is necessary. If not, then I am one happy cajun.
sassy
Veteran Member
This is NOT looking good - the NHC does not seem to know where it's going.
Not saying that it's their fault, just too many what if's in weather that could effect the cane.
The gfdl model is now west of Houston.
Some chemical plants south of Houston getting ready to shut down.
(someone from Exxon posted an email)
Ike’s slower movement and northward jog this morning appears to be increasing the risk that the hurricane will track inland farther up the Texas coast than is currently predicted. New model guidance is just starting to arrive. Initial indications are that a northward shift in the track is in order for our next advisory. Such a shift would increase the risk of landfall along the upper Texas coast significantly. Since we will likely be making a significant track adjustment on the next advisory, we are going to wait until the rest of the model data are in before issuing our next forecast.
We anticipate that our forecast will be issued between 4PM and 4:30PM this afternoon, though we may have it ready a little before then.
Not saying that it's their fault, just too many what if's in weather that could effect the cane.
The gfdl model is now west of Houston.
Some chemical plants south of Houston getting ready to shut down.
(someone from Exxon posted an email)
Ike’s slower movement and northward jog this morning appears to be increasing the risk that the hurricane will track inland farther up the Texas coast than is currently predicted. New model guidance is just starting to arrive. Initial indications are that a northward shift in the track is in order for our next advisory. Such a shift would increase the risk of landfall along the upper Texas coast significantly. Since we will likely be making a significant track adjustment on the next advisory, we are going to wait until the rest of the model data are in before issuing our next forecast.
We anticipate that our forecast will be issued between 4PM and 4:30PM this afternoon, though we may have it ready a little before then.
dberszerker
Veteran Member
Looks like rain over here near Houston unfortunately, I keep hearing that the storm is going North, not good for the dberszerkers.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 102100
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 102100
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTUS84 KHGX 101738
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...
.AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...
130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO
4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HU.S.0002.080910T1738Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NEW EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICA
BEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKI
ISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAY
ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.
IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A
SEPARATE FACILITY.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.
VEHICLES SUCH AS BOATS...18 WHEELERS...TRAILERS...OR SECOND CARS
CAN BE PARKED AT THE MATAGORDA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. IF YOU PARK
YOUR PROPERTY THERE...PLEASE BE AWARE IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
THE SWING BRIDGES AT MATAGORDA AND SARGENT WILL BE PERMANENTLY
CLOSED AT 6 PM THURSDAY WHICH MEANS YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS
OVER THE BRIDGES PAST THAT TIME.
THE EVACUATIONS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM
THURSDAY. PUBLIC SERVICES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER THIS TIME FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. PERSONS WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EVACUATION CAN CALL 979-244-5318.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED.
TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 12 TO 18 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 7 TO 10 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES - 4 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY - 4 TO 8 FEET
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND...25 TO 35
MPH COAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM CDT.
$$
WTUS84 KHGX 101738
HLSHGX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...
.AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 430 MILES... 690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...
130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO
4 FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TXZ200-213-214-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HU.S.0002.080910T1738Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
1238 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...EVACUATIONS INITIATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL COUNTIES...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NEW EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BRAZORIA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION.
GALVESTON COUNTY:
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICA
BEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKI
ISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAY
ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.
THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JACKSON COUNTY:
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.
MATAGORDA COUNTY:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.
IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.
IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A
SEPARATE FACILITY.
IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318.
RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.
VEHICLES SUCH AS BOATS...18 WHEELERS...TRAILERS...OR SECOND CARS
CAN BE PARKED AT THE MATAGORDA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. IF YOU PARK
YOUR PROPERTY THERE...PLEASE BE AWARE IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
THE SWING BRIDGES AT MATAGORDA AND SARGENT WILL BE PERMANENTLY
CLOSED AT 6 PM THURSDAY WHICH MEANS YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PASS
OVER THE BRIDGES PAST THAT TIME.
THE EVACUATIONS IN MATAGORDA COUNTY MUST BE COMPLETED BY 6 PM
THURSDAY. PUBLIC SERVICES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER THIS TIME FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. PERSONS WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EVACUATION CAN CALL 979-244-5318.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED.
TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 12 TO 18 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 7 TO 10 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES - 4 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY - 4 TO 8 FEET
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND...25 TO 35
MPH COAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM CDT.
$$
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
http://www.operationstormwatch.com/main.html
THIS link suggests that Dallas is likely to get THUMPED an it LOOKS like us up here in Cleveland aer gonna get WET....
THIS link suggests that Dallas is likely to get THUMPED an it LOOKS like us up here in Cleveland aer gonna get WET....
- Status