- Status
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Tuesday, September 9, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface weather observations and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ike has a large area of tropical storm force winds of up to 300 miles wide, but the inner core or eye is very small but well defined, about 6 to 8 nautical miles. The eye of Ike can be seen from Cuban and Key West radars. The minimum pressure of Ike is between 963 and 965 mb, with maximum winds of around 80 mph.
Ike is expected to track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around or just after midnight tonight. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, it will have at least 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico and since the environment is favorable for strengthening and the hurricane is expected to track over several areas of high heat content, significant strengthening is expected.
Therefore, I expect Ike to strengthen to at least Category 3 strength by Thursday and maintain that strength right through landfall Friday night or Saturday morning. It should be noted that the GFDL model forecasts a peak intensity of a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane during Thursday and the HWRF model forecasts a peak intensity of a upper end Category 4 hurricane on Thursday evening!!
Fixes from Cuban and Key West radars as will as penetrations from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the small eye of Ike is tracking westward at a forward speed of 13 mph early this morning, very close to the Zapata Peninsula on the south coast of western Cuba.
A general west to west-northwest track between the Isle of Youth and the south coast of Havana province should continue this morning. Then, the center should cross western Cuba this afternoon very near to where Hurricane Gustav crossed a week or so ago.
The steering patterns in the Gulf of Mexico has changed little and Ike is expected to turn more to the northwest over the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure weakens due to the passage of a short wave trough of low pressure.
During Thursday and Friday, the ridge of high pressure is forecast to restrengthen and should force Ike on a more west to west-northwest track.
The track model guidance has shifted to the south overnight and the guidance now has different solutions as to where Ike may come ashore along the Texas coast on Friday and Saturday.
The European model is forecasting a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda on Saturday morning.
The GFS model is now forecasting a landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico on Friday evening.
The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi.
The GFDL is forecasting a landfall in southern Kenedy County, Texas around midnight Friday night and the HWRF model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi early Saturday morning.
The consensus models are forecasting a landfall in Willacy County, Texas.
Ok, here are my thoughts as of this morning:
The guidance, as previously noted, has shifted to the south overnight. This is likely part of a model trend and it is actually possible that the guidance trend has slowed down or even stopped as it is clear that the ridge of high pressure over the southern United States is much stronger than first expected.
I think, at this point, the model guidance may shift a little more to the south today and then trend back to the north a little, therefore, my landfall risk area this morning is from the Texas-Mexico border northward to Galveston. Within this risk area, the highest risk area for a landfall has shifted to the south and is now from Matagorda to Baffin Bay as at least a Category 3 hurricane around or just after midnight Friday night.
I would like to note here that the forecast track of Ike is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire Texas coast should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and some effects from the storm will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Tuesday, September 9, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface weather observations and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ike has a large area of tropical storm force winds of up to 300 miles wide, but the inner core or eye is very small but well defined, about 6 to 8 nautical miles. The eye of Ike can be seen from Cuban and Key West radars. The minimum pressure of Ike is between 963 and 965 mb, with maximum winds of around 80 mph.
Ike is expected to track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around or just after midnight tonight. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, it will have at least 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico and since the environment is favorable for strengthening and the hurricane is expected to track over several areas of high heat content, significant strengthening is expected.
Therefore, I expect Ike to strengthen to at least Category 3 strength by Thursday and maintain that strength right through landfall Friday night or Saturday morning. It should be noted that the GFDL model forecasts a peak intensity of a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane during Thursday and the HWRF model forecasts a peak intensity of a upper end Category 4 hurricane on Thursday evening!!
Fixes from Cuban and Key West radars as will as penetrations from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the small eye of Ike is tracking westward at a forward speed of 13 mph early this morning, very close to the Zapata Peninsula on the south coast of western Cuba.
A general west to west-northwest track between the Isle of Youth and the south coast of Havana province should continue this morning. Then, the center should cross western Cuba this afternoon very near to where Hurricane Gustav crossed a week or so ago.
The steering patterns in the Gulf of Mexico has changed little and Ike is expected to turn more to the northwest over the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure weakens due to the passage of a short wave trough of low pressure.
During Thursday and Friday, the ridge of high pressure is forecast to restrengthen and should force Ike on a more west to west-northwest track.
The track model guidance has shifted to the south overnight and the guidance now has different solutions as to where Ike may come ashore along the Texas coast on Friday and Saturday.
The European model is forecasting a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Matagorda on Saturday morning.
The GFS model is now forecasting a landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico on Friday evening.
The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi.
The GFDL is forecasting a landfall in southern Kenedy County, Texas around midnight Friday night and the HWRF model is forecasting a landfall near Corpus Christi early Saturday morning.
The consensus models are forecasting a landfall in Willacy County, Texas.
Ok, here are my thoughts as of this morning:
The guidance, as previously noted, has shifted to the south overnight. This is likely part of a model trend and it is actually possible that the guidance trend has slowed down or even stopped as it is clear that the ridge of high pressure over the southern United States is much stronger than first expected.
I think, at this point, the model guidance may shift a little more to the south today and then trend back to the north a little, therefore, my landfall risk area this morning is from the Texas-Mexico border northward to Galveston. Within this risk area, the highest risk area for a landfall has shifted to the south and is now from Matagorda to Baffin Bay as at least a Category 3 hurricane around or just after midnight Friday night.
I would like to note here that the forecast track of Ike is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire Texas coast should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and some effects from the storm will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning.
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
From Weather Underground
Ike crossing Cuba; Texas next?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:20 AM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has made landfall over the western tip of Cuba, and continues its onslaught on that island nation with 80 mph winds, a 4-7 foot storm surge, and heavy rains of 6-12 inches. Key West radar shows that Ike has a tiny 10-mile wide eye, and Ike has hurricane force winds over just a small region near its center. In fact, the 8 am Hurricane Hunter flight was only able to find winds of tropical storm strength, and Ike may be weaker than advertised. Still, the storm has a central pressure of 965 mb, which is a pressure more typical of Category 2 hurricanes.
The capital of Havana reported sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 58 mph this morning, and the worst of Ike's winds will pass well south of the city. Ike's primary threat to Cuba at this point is heavy rains. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today, taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba, where Hurricane Gustav crossed just two weeks ago. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 0Z/6Z (8 pm/2 am EDT) computer models show a variety of timings and strengths for Friday's low pressure trough, resulting in a high amount of uncertainty on where Ike will make landfall.
Most of the models predict the trough will arrive too late and be too weak to affect Ike, and take Ike ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. These models include the NOGAPS, GFS, and GFDL. The HWRF is bit farther north, placing landfall near Corpus Christi, and the UKMET and ECMWF are farther north still, targeting a region between Freeport and Galveston.
Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy.
The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike.
Intensity forecast for Ike
While Ike is over Cuba, slow weakening will occur. Significant strengthening will not occur until Wednesday morning, after the storm has recovered from its crossing of Cuba. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.
By Friday, wind shear is predicted to increase to 15-20 knots, but the heat content of the ocean remains relatively high. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast.
The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 3or 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. So take your pick--Ike could be a Category 1, 2, 3, or 4 hurricane at landfall. Such is the state of long-range hurricane intensity forecasts. A middle of the road forecast of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall is a reasonable one at present.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather has developed near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. The GFS model predicts this disturbance could develop by Sunday. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
The remains of Tropical Storm Josephine are no longer a threat.
I'll have an update this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Ike crossing Cuba; Texas next?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:20 AM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has made landfall over the western tip of Cuba, and continues its onslaught on that island nation with 80 mph winds, a 4-7 foot storm surge, and heavy rains of 6-12 inches. Key West radar shows that Ike has a tiny 10-mile wide eye, and Ike has hurricane force winds over just a small region near its center. In fact, the 8 am Hurricane Hunter flight was only able to find winds of tropical storm strength, and Ike may be weaker than advertised. Still, the storm has a central pressure of 965 mb, which is a pressure more typical of Category 2 hurricanes.
The capital of Havana reported sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 58 mph this morning, and the worst of Ike's winds will pass well south of the city. Ike's primary threat to Cuba at this point is heavy rains. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today, taking the storm across the western tip of Cuba, where Hurricane Gustav crossed just two weeks ago. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 0Z/6Z (8 pm/2 am EDT) computer models show a variety of timings and strengths for Friday's low pressure trough, resulting in a high amount of uncertainty on where Ike will make landfall.
Most of the models predict the trough will arrive too late and be too weak to affect Ike, and take Ike ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. These models include the NOGAPS, GFS, and GFDL. The HWRF is bit farther north, placing landfall near Corpus Christi, and the UKMET and ECMWF are farther north still, targeting a region between Freeport and Galveston.
Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy.
The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike.
Intensity forecast for Ike
While Ike is over Cuba, slow weakening will occur. Significant strengthening will not occur until Wednesday morning, after the storm has recovered from its crossing of Cuba. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.
By Friday, wind shear is predicted to increase to 15-20 knots, but the heat content of the ocean remains relatively high. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast.
The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 3or 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. So take your pick--Ike could be a Category 1, 2, 3, or 4 hurricane at landfall. Such is the state of long-range hurricane intensity forecasts. A middle of the road forecast of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall is a reasonable one at present.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather has developed near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. The GFS model predicts this disturbance could develop by Sunday. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
The remains of Tropical Storm Josephine are no longer a threat.
I'll have an update this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1030 AM
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAL DEL RIO.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE CROSSES WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1030 AM
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAL DEL RIO.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE CROSSES WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4
WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GUST TO 118 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PASO REAL IN
PINAR DEL RIO. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IKE CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER OF IKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4
WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GUST TO 118 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PASO REAL IN
PINAR DEL RIO. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IKE CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER OF IKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 092043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT44 KNHC 092051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 092051
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ike emerges into the Gulf;
Texas at high risk of a major hurricane strike
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:10 PM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.
Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
The capital of Havana missed the worst of Ike, and reported highest sustained winds of just 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 8 am this morning. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.
Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large a well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening will not occur until early Wednesday morning, since the storm has to build a new eyewall. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots.
Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday. The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind shear to remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow intensification. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast.
The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.
Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%
Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Conner, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Conner and Freeport (Figure 1). Typical maximum storm surge values from a Category 4 hurricane hitting the central Texas coast at high tide are much higher, about 20-25 feet.
A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas.
These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening).
The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, has changed little today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. No models currently predict development of this disturbance, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
The remains of Tropical Storm Josephine are no longer a threat.
I'll have an update tonight by 9pm EDT, with the latest model runs for Ike, and more storm surge info for Texas.
Jeff Masters
Figure 4. High water marks from the August 29, 1942 hurricane along the Texas coast. Image credit: "Characteristics of the Hurricane Storm Surge", by D. Lee Harris, U.S. Weather Bureau, 1963.
Texas at high risk of a major hurricane strike
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:10 PM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.
Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
The capital of Havana missed the worst of Ike, and reported highest sustained winds of just 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 8 am this morning. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.
Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large a well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening will not occur until early Wednesday morning, since the storm has to build a new eyewall. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots.
Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday. The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind shear to remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow intensification. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast.
The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.
Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%
Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Conner, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Conner and Freeport (Figure 1). Typical maximum storm surge values from a Category 4 hurricane hitting the central Texas coast at high tide are much higher, about 20-25 feet.
A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas.
These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening).
The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, has changed little today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. No models currently predict development of this disturbance, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
The remains of Tropical Storm Josephine are no longer a threat.
I'll have an update tonight by 9pm EDT, with the latest model runs for Ike, and more storm surge info for Texas.
Jeff Masters
Figure 4. High water marks from the August 29, 1942 hurricane along the Texas coast. Image credit: "Characteristics of the Hurricane Storm Surge", by D. Lee Harris, U.S. Weather Bureau, 1963.
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Thanks, Jarhead.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 092343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
WTNT34 KNHC 092343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/0000 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 84.0W
OR ABOUT 85 NM WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WNW AT 9
KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10
KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N35W 8N50W 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A
CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SURINAME.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MUCH
OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE INFORMATION. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HURRICANE IKE IS EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE
IKE TO CATEGORY THREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
THE NW PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE WAS INTERACTING WITH DRY NLY
FLOW TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IKE MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
PROXIMITY OF CABO LUCRECIA ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE
OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL TODAY IN WESTERN
CUBA NEAR PUNTA LA CAPITANA PINAR RIO AROUND 1030 AM EDT.
HURRICANE IKE THEN EMERGED INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MANUEL SANGUILY ALSO IN THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO AROUND 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND GUST OF 118 MPH WAS
REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON AT PASO REAL IN PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE
IKE IS THE SECOND OF TWO HURRICANES TO HAVE STRUCK CUBA IN THE
PAST NINE DAYS...WHICH IS MAKES A NEW RECORD. IKE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT W-NW AWAY FROM CUBA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE
COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER ALONG 76W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE IN AN ELONGATED REGION OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. DEEP LAYER DRY EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE AS LOW
AS 1004 MB DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE IKE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE DRIFTING TO THE E OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 51W FROM 15N-22N. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS BENEATH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE
FEATURES ARE GENERALLY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IKE IS
IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC.
$$
COHEN/RUBIO
AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/0000 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 84.0W
OR ABOUT 85 NM WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WNW AT 9
KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10
KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N35W 8N50W 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A
CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SURINAME.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MUCH
OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE INFORMATION. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HURRICANE IKE IS EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WARM
OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE
IKE TO CATEGORY THREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
THE NW PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE WAS INTERACTING WITH DRY NLY
FLOW TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IKE MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
PROXIMITY OF CABO LUCRECIA ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE
OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL TODAY IN WESTERN
CUBA NEAR PUNTA LA CAPITANA PINAR RIO AROUND 1030 AM EDT.
HURRICANE IKE THEN EMERGED INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MANUEL SANGUILY ALSO IN THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL
RIO AROUND 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND GUST OF 118 MPH WAS
REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON AT PASO REAL IN PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE
IKE IS THE SECOND OF TWO HURRICANES TO HAVE STRUCK CUBA IN THE
PAST NINE DAYS...WHICH IS MAKES A NEW RECORD. IKE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT W-NW AWAY FROM CUBA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE
COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER ALONG 76W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE IN AN ELONGATED REGION OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. DEEP LAYER DRY EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE AS LOW
AS 1004 MB DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE IKE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE DRIFTING TO THE E OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 51W FROM 15N-22N. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS BENEATH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE
FEATURES ARE GENERALLY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IKE IS
IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC.
$$
COHEN/RUBIO
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ike has an eyewall, beginning to strengthen
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:57 PM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has taken advantage of the warm Gulf of Mexico waters it is over, and has already built an eyewall. At 7:02 m EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found a complete eyewall, which can also be seen on infrared satellite loops and Key West radar.
The infrared satellite imagery also shows a rapid cooling of the cloud tops in Ike's eyewall and some of the spiral bands, indicating that the thunderstorms are penetrating higher into the atmosphere--a sign of strengthening.
The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the pressure has begun to fall, but Ike's winds remain at minimal hurricane force, 75 mph.
All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) computer models that have come in so far--the GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS--point to a landfall near Corpus Christi.
All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas.
Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--possibly including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.
Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large and well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening is ready to occur, now that Ike has built a new eyewall. I expect Ike will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by Wednesday night, and Ike has the potential to become a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the HWRF and GFDL models. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots, for the remainder of Ike's life.
Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is more likely that Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane status as it approaches the coast. The GFDL model predicts landfall near Corpus Christi as a Category 3 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall.
Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%
Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Connor, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore, since the high angular momentum of the swirling storm surge waters did not have time to decrease much. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Connor and Freeport (Figure 4). Actually, looking at these storm surge values, I wouldn't be surprised if the 1942 storm was stronger both at landfall and before landfall than the official HURDAT database advertises. This storm came before the era of satellites and Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas.
These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge.
This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
If you live in Texas, what are your chances of getting hit?
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At present, NHC is calling for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:
Brownsville: 8%
Corpus Christi: 8%
Freeport: 10%
Galveston: 9%
Houston: 5%
I think the odds are roughly double what NHC is advertising for the above cities.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, has changed little today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. No models currently predict development of this disturbance, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Current Key West radar image.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:57 PM EDT on September 09, 2008
Hurricane Ike has taken advantage of the warm Gulf of Mexico waters it is over, and has already built an eyewall. At 7:02 m EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found a complete eyewall, which can also be seen on infrared satellite loops and Key West radar.
The infrared satellite imagery also shows a rapid cooling of the cloud tops in Ike's eyewall and some of the spiral bands, indicating that the thunderstorms are penetrating higher into the atmosphere--a sign of strengthening.
The latest data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the pressure has begun to fall, but Ike's winds remain at minimal hurricane force, 75 mph.
All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday.
Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.
The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) computer models that have come in so far--the GFS, GFDL, and NOGAPS--point to a landfall near Corpus Christi.
All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas.
Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--possibly including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.
Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large and well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening is ready to occur, now that Ike has built a new eyewall. I expect Ike will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by Wednesday night, and Ike has the potential to become a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday, as forecast by the HWRF and GFDL models. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots, for the remainder of Ike's life.
Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy.
There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is more likely that Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane status as it approaches the coast. The GFDL model predicts landfall near Corpus Christi as a Category 3 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall.
Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%
Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge
The Texas coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the long expanse of shallow Continental Shelf waters offshore. The shallow depths allow large the swirling winds of the hurricane to pile up huge mounds of water, which then sweep inland when the hurricane makes landfall. Even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of generating 15 foot storm surges along some sections of the Texas coast. For example, the August 29, 1942 hurricane hit near Port O'Connor, Texas as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. However, this hurricane had been a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds the day before landfall, allowing it to pile up a large storm surge over the Continental Shelf just offshore the central Texas coast. The storm weakened suddenly in the 12 hours before landfall, but brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane to shore, since the high angular momentum of the swirling storm surge waters did not have time to decrease much. A 10-15 foot storm surge came ashore over a 100-mile stretch of coast between Port O'Connor and Freeport (Figure 4). Actually, looking at these storm surge values, I wouldn't be surprised if the 1942 storm was stronger both at landfall and before landfall than the official HURDAT database advertises. This storm came before the era of satellites and Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas.
These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge.
This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
If you live in Texas, what are your chances of getting hit?
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At present, NHC is calling for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:
Brownsville: 8%
Corpus Christi: 8%
Freeport: 10%
Galveston: 9%
Houston: 5%
I think the odds are roughly double what NHC is advertising for the above cities.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A area of disturbed weather near 10N, 21W, about 300 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, has changed little today. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sloppy circulation and some 25 mph winds in heavy thunderstorms to the south. The region is currently under about 20 knots of shear, but shear is expected to decline over the disturbance as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph this week. No models currently predict development of this disturbance, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The disturbance will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7-8 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Current Key West radar image.
Attachments
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Link to GFDL animated model run......
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
832 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
.AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...OR 28.61 INCHES.
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 8 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY INFORMATION FOR RE-OPENINGS AND RETURN TIMELINES.
UPDATED STORM SURGE TO INCLUDE MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATED WINDS TO INCREASE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THE LOWER
KEYS THIS EVENING.
UPDATED TORNADO SECTION TO INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
THIS EVENING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DUE TO SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY OFF THE
ROADWAYS TONIGHT. RESIDENTS WHO EVACUATED SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN
STARTING WEDNESDAY AT NOON...ONCE OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE
OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS CLEAR OF DEBRIS. VISITORS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN
TO THE KEYS STARTING ON THURSDAY.
THE FOLLOWING STREETS IN KEY WEST SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC...SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BOULEVARD AND THE SOUTHERN ENDS
OF DUVAL...SIMONTON AND WHITEHEAD STREETS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO
DRIVE ON ANY STREET WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. LOWER KEYS AND
FISHERMENS HOSPITAL EMERGENCY ROOMS HAVE REOPENED...AND MARINERS
HOSPITAL EXPECTS TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. ALL HOSPITALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FULLY OPERATIONAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANYONE WITH SCHEDULED APPOINTMENTS SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. COUNTY AND
STATE PARKS MAY BEGIN REOPENING ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE
PLANNING TO REOPEN ON THURSDAY. MOST STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL
BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT PERSONNEL SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. GIVEN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...
COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AND GENERAL AVIATION SHOULD RESUME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD STAY INDOORS
DURING PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE HIGHEST
STORM TIDES WILL COME FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE DAY AT SEVERAL LOW LYING AREAS IN KEY WEST...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BLVD AND SEVERAL
STREETS NEAR SOUTHERNMOST POINT. THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
HAS PASSED FOR THIS EVENING. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA
LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS CONFINED TO KEY WEST AND VICINITY.
THESE WATER LEVELS WOULD CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS IN THE LOWER KEYS...SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE
FOLLOWING TIMES...
IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY
IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY
IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY
...WINDS...
PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WITHIN RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS.
OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE AREAS RECEIVING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PONDING OF FRESH WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
IN LOW LYING AREAS.
...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL DECREASE FURTHER LATER
TONIGHT.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
ALL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 11 TO 15 FEET BEYOND THE
REEF...EXCEPT 17 TO 22 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
832 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
.AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...OR 28.61 INCHES.
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 8 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY INFORMATION FOR RE-OPENINGS AND RETURN TIMELINES.
UPDATED STORM SURGE TO INCLUDE MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATED WINDS TO INCREASE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THE LOWER
KEYS THIS EVENING.
UPDATED TORNADO SECTION TO INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
THIS EVENING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DUE TO SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY OFF THE
ROADWAYS TONIGHT. RESIDENTS WHO EVACUATED SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN
STARTING WEDNESDAY AT NOON...ONCE OFFICIALS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE
OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS CLEAR OF DEBRIS. VISITORS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN
TO THE KEYS STARTING ON THURSDAY.
THE FOLLOWING STREETS IN KEY WEST SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC...SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BOULEVARD AND THE SOUTHERN ENDS
OF DUVAL...SIMONTON AND WHITEHEAD STREETS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO
DRIVE ON ANY STREET WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. LOWER KEYS AND
FISHERMENS HOSPITAL EMERGENCY ROOMS HAVE REOPENED...AND MARINERS
HOSPITAL EXPECTS TO REOPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7 AM. ALL HOSPITALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FULLY OPERATIONAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
ANYONE WITH SCHEDULED APPOINTMENTS SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. COUNTY AND
STATE PARKS MAY BEGIN REOPENING ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MONROE COUNTY
SCHOOLS AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE
PLANNING TO REOPEN ON THURSDAY. MOST STATE AND FEDERAL OFFICES WILL
BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY...BUT PERSONNEL SHOULD CALL IN ADVANCE. GIVEN NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...
COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE AND GENERAL AVIATION SHOULD RESUME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD STAY INDOORS
DURING PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE HIGHEST
STORM TIDES WILL COME FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE DAY AT SEVERAL LOW LYING AREAS IN KEY WEST...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH ROOSEVELT...ATLANTIC BLVD AND SEVERAL
STREETS NEAR SOUTHERNMOST POINT. THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
HAS PASSED FOR THIS EVENING. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA
LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS CONFINED TO KEY WEST AND VICINITY.
THESE WATER LEVELS WOULD CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS IN THE LOWER KEYS...SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE
FOLLOWING TIMES...
IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY
IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY
IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY
...WINDS...
PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WITHIN RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS.
OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THIS EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE AREAS RECEIVING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME PONDING OF FRESH WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
IN LOW LYING AREAS.
...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL DECREASE FURTHER LATER
TONIGHT.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
ALL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 11 TO 15 FEET BEYOND THE
REEF...EXCEPT 17 TO 22 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
NoName
Veteran Member
buff
Deceased
thanks jarhead..
i came across this site which has some very nice graphics on tropical weather.
some of you may want to check it...
http://www.stormpulse.com/
i came across this site which has some very nice graphics on tropical weather.
some of you may want to check it...
http://www.stormpulse.com/
"Hurricane City" will be live every evening until Ike makes landfall,
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.htm
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.htm
Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Looks like Houston could be under the gun and conditions are ripe for the 1 in 4 chance of a Cat 4 or Cat 5 worst case scenario:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/hurricane_ike_t.html
Looking at the radar and knowing the water temps and atmospheric conditions are almost perfect, we could be looking at a storm of the century IMO. Remember....Katrina was only a weakening Cat 3 at landfall. Last time the U.S. saw a full-scale hit was Andrew in '92, if I'm not mistaken, and that was a Cat 4. The only Cat 5 to hit was Camille in recorded history as far as I know.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/hurricane_ike_t.html
Looking at the radar and knowing the water temps and atmospheric conditions are almost perfect, we could be looking at a storm of the century IMO. Remember....Katrina was only a weakening Cat 3 at landfall. Last time the U.S. saw a full-scale hit was Andrew in '92, if I'm not mistaken, and that was a Cat 4. The only Cat 5 to hit was Camille in recorded history as far as I know.
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
Jarhead
Has No Life - Lives on TB
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NNNN
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