Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day

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NORTH AMERICA’S ARCTIC COOL-DOWN: TEMPS TO SINK WELL-BELOW AVERAGE, SUMMER SNOW TO HIT THE MOUNTAIN STATES
AUGUST 26, 2020 CAP ALLON

A string of cold fronts are expected to engulf much of the North American continent starting Friday, bringing well-below average temperatures, scattered thunderstorms, and even summer snow to the mountain states.

By Monday a second and much stronger cold front will have arrived sinking the mercury as much as 14C below normal in many central U.S. states: particularly in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Canada’s Saskatchewan and Manitoba provinces are also on-track for a bout of record-breaking cold:

gfs_T2ma_namer_24.png

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies (C) for Mon, Aug 31 [tropicaltidbits.com]

The Arctic air will also clip the western U.S. states of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado, bringing a good chance of snow to the states’ higher peaks.

According to the latest GFS runs, 4+ inches of glorious summer snow could accumulate this coming Sunday through Monday, shattering the dreams of many an ill-informed climate alarmist:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) thru to Sept 1 [tropicaltidbits.com]

For more on why swings between extremes –from sweltering heat to summer chills– are becoming more prevalent, see the article linked below:


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow. Even NASA appears to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day

snow-s-russia-e1598434090700.png


MONSTER SUMMER SNOWDRIFTS BURY THE SOUTHERN-RUSSIAN VILLAGE OF KURUSH
AUGUST 26, 2020 CAP ALLON

Rare and heavy summer snow has settled in the Russian village of Kurush as the air temperature plummeted to just a few notches above freezing.

As reported by pogoda.mail.ru, and picked-up by iceagenow.info, out-of-season snowfall has buried Kurush: a southern Russian village situated in the Dagestan Republic, famed for being the highest continuously inhabited settlement in both transcontinental Russia as well as Europe.

Despite the village’s high altitude (2480–2560m, depending on the source), its locals were still shocked at the sheer depth of the summer snowdrifts — so much so that they took to social media to share the rare event:

http://instagr.am/p/CEO0vV0JyCP/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CEO0vV0JyCP/?utm_source=ig_embed


http://instagr.am/p/CEPJZGdn4Hs/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CEPJZGdn4Hs/?utm_source=ig_embed


The accompanying captions generally complain that summer this year has ended far too early.

http://instagr.am/p/CEQgQ66qIxH/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CEQgQ66qIxH/?utm_source=ig_embed


Heavy summer snow in southern Russia.

Yet another extreme ‘cold-weather’ event the MSM will show zero interest in.

I urge you to tune out their bogus, warm-mongering political agenda. You would instead do far better to prepare for the next cyclical bout of COOLING and the REFREEZING of the mid-latitudes: phenomenons which appear to be returning in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow. Even NASA appears to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
All, just a wee heads up that I may be a bit late in posting tomorrow morning. We are in East Central Texas, and now that Laura is forecasted to be a Cat 4, our original forecast of just being grazed will likely be a little stronger. We're on satellite for internet, so I'm guessing that and our power could be out a while. Fingers crossed it won't be too bad, but I'll get back online as soon as I can if we do go out.

Prayers for everyone in the path of this hurricane.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
It has just started sprinkling here in the last few minutes. As of this morning, our forecast is calling for a total of well past five inches of rain over the coming week.

North central Arkansas here, a few miles above I-40. Hope we don't lose power!

Wishing well to all you guys south of me and that the worst you get is lots of rain!
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Adapt 2030 has a new short video up. I think it's about gold and silver and it looks like it runs about 10:00.

Not sure it has anything to do with GSM, I haven't checked it out yet, but thought I'd mention it for anyone who cares to look at all of his stuff.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Well, I think all of us, and you in particular, have done a super job of keeping this thread on subject. If we hit a wrong one now and then, I don't think anyone will mind.

And when you think about it, there can be things that don't seem to be related to the GSM, but if you take a closer look, they actually are. Like today's short video about gold and silver. This is very related to our ability to buy anything, which has been happening from bad weather and crop failures of all types before Covid-19 came around and before all this money printing moved into high gear.

I've started watching things as being one tightly connected whole made up primarily of pandemic, GSM, politics, and the economy.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Thanks, Martinhouse! It's always good to have a lot of folks bringing in info on the forum :-)

You're right, so much is interconnected nowadays it hard to separate anything completely.
 

TxGal

Day by day

UK - Worst wheat harvest in decades - Cold & wet

Robert W. Felix
Ice Age Now
Wed, 26 Aug 2020 20:23 UTC

Only a small amount of this year's wheat crop is high quality
Only a small amount of this year's wheat crop is high quality

Shades of the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age.
__________

The UK's worst wheat harvest in about 40 years has prompted fears of higher prices of flour, and subsequently of bread and other flour-based products.

Due to heavy rain last October, only 60% of what would normally be planted went into the ground. Add in the sunniest spring since 1929, substantially drier than usual, followed by the wettest February ever recorded, and you get the picture.

Recent droughts, with the longest period of temperatures above 34C since records began in 1961, followed by August downpours and thunderstorms have reduced the quality of wheat, according to the National Farmers' Union (NFU) and reports by Sky News.

The story goes on to bemoan the fact that "farmers are grappling with increasingly wild weather, as concerns about climate change mount."

"Concerns about climate change." That's shorthand for "concerns about global warming".

But instead of global warming, I think we should be more concerned about the number of days we have experienced with zero sunspots and the possibility of entering another little - if not full-fledged - ice age.

During the Maunder Minimum, a period of about 60 years of zero sunspots, the UK's rainy season lasted a few weeks longer each spring and began a few weeks early each fall. That lead to disastrous crop failures and literally millions - yes, millions - of people starved to death.

As I've been warning all along, I fear that we will be fighting in the streets for food long before we're covered by ice.


Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Martinhouse, I hope you fare well today as the Laura progresses her way into your state. We're fine here, we had that one rain band last evening and then nothing....just a bit breezy. We got very, very lucky here in the Brazos Valley.
 

TxGal

Day by day

UK – Worst wheat harvest in decades – COLD & WET
August 26, 2020 by Robert


Shades of the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age.
__________

The UK’s worst wheat harvest in about 40 years has prompted fears of higher prices of flour, and subsequently of bread and other flour-based products.

Due to heavy rain last October, only 60% of what would normally be planted went into the ground. Add in the sunniest spring since 1929, substantially drier than usual, followed by the wettest February ever recorded, and you get the picture.
Recent droughts, with the longest period of temperatures above 34C since records began in 1961, followed by August downpours and thunderstorms have reduced the quality of wheat, according to the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) and reports by Sky News.

The story goes on to bemoan the fact that “farmers are grappling with increasingly wild weather, as concerns about climate change mount.”

“Concerns about climate change.” That’s shorthand for “concerns about global warming”.

But instead of global warming, I think we should be more concerned about the number of days we have experienced with zero sunspots and the possibility of entering another little – if not full-fledged – ice age.

During the Maunder Minimum, a period of about 60 years of zero sunspots, the UK’s rainy season lasted a few weeks longer each spring and began a few weeks early each fall. That lead to disastrous crop failures and literally millions – yes, millions – of people starved to death.

As I’ve been warning all along, I fear that we will be fighting in the streets for food long before we’re covered by ice.


https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/u-ks-worst-wheat-harvest-in-decades-prompts-flour-pric e-hike-fears-101101142.html

Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link
 

TxGal

Day by day
Another 'oh boy' moment for me. Here we go, it seems:


GSM-prepare-e1598520410780.jpeg


GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM INCOMING
AUGUST 27, 2020 CAP ALLON

Solar Cycle 25 may be spluttering into life, but all is once-again quiet on the earth-facing solar disc: there are no sunspots — in fact, there haven’t been any for the past 6 days (as of Aug 27, 2020).

Solar activity is the driving force of Earth’s climate. This definition of obvious is only disputed by the misinformed, and by those with a financial or political motive.

High solar activity — as we’ve enjoyed for the past 100-or-so years — has delivered our planet a stable, predictable climate under-which we modern humans have had the opportunity to thrive and successfully advance our technological society.

However, and as with all good things, these predictable days are ending: the Sun’s output is waning to levels not seen for the past 200 years, to a reduction in activity not experienced since the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830). And as with every great and advancing civilization of the past, a time comes when the consequences of a solar shutdown need to be contended. We need to prepare for the wild swings-between-extremes brought about by an increasingly weak & wavy (meridional) jet stream, we need to be aware of a powerful volcanic uptick witnessed during times of low solar activity, as well as cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and, perhaps most crucially, an overall cooling of the planet.

Crops are always the first to go. And our modern delicately-balanced, chemical-dependent, monocropping-ways simply aren’t prepared for a violent shift in the climate — as Robert Felix has long been warning, “I fear that we will be fighting in the streets for food long before we’re covered by ice.”

Today comes the news that the UK has just suffered its worst wheat harvest of the past 40 years, prompting fears of higher prices of flour, and subsequently of bread and other flour-based products.

This season’s growing conditions have been typical of the swings-between-extremes we would expect to see during a Grand Solar Minimum. Britain’s farmers have just struggled through the wettest autumn since 2000, in which only 60% of what could be planted actually went in the ground, then came the wettest February on record, followed by the sunniest Spring and driest May on record, and then, for good measure, came the coldest July since 1988.

“[God has] fried my crops, frozen them, drowned them and then drowned them again,” lamented Jeremy Clarkson regarding the inclement weather conditions at his farm in west Oxfordshire.

And while the agenda of the day puts the blame for these swings firmly at the feet of Man and his inconsequential CO2-excretions, only an imbecile can hold onto this theory after any modicum of digging. And while I accept that not everybody is convinced the period we’re headed into will be akin to the Maunder Minimum, the weather extremes and overall cooling of the planet are most-certainly linked to the reduced output of the Sun.

Summer, 2020 across Europe has been a short one.

As mentioned above, July this year was the UK’s coldest since 1988, and while the weather-dial swung to bursts of heat in early-August, this warmth was all-too brief and now, according to the latest forecasts, autumn is arriving across western Europe before the month of August is even through: a violent kink in the jet stream is about to divert Arctic air anomalously-far south:


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Aug 30 [tropicaltidbits.com].

According to the Met Office, this front has the possibility of delivering rare summer frosts. And while a warm-up (back to average temperatures) is expected during the latter half of next week, another blast of polar cold looks set to take charge as September progresses (still in the unreliable time-frame but worth keeping an eye on):


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Sept 11 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Eyeing elsewhere around the world, much of North America is abouto suffer well-below average temperatures, and even some mountain snow:


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Aug 31 [tropicaltidbits.com].

While something potentially historic is on the cards beginning Sept 6:

gfs_T2ma_namer_fh270-384.gif

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Sept 6 – Sept 11 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Don’t fall for bogus warm-mongering political agendas.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING; in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Even NASA appears to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, I just woke up here. Still dry outside, we're supposed to get lots of rain starting this afternoon. I'm hoping I'm up to doing some raking. My sidewalks are totally covered with leaves from this early leaf fall, and it would be nice to have that all cleared off so the rain can wash things nice and clean.

Between raking and making sure the chickens and rabbits have lots of extra food and water, I'll be busy until nnonnn since it takes me so long to do anything.

I don't mind lots of rain, since my whole place has a little bit of slope to it.....I just hope we don't lose power. I think it's sort of expected that we will. If I have time before the action starts, I'll check batteries in a couple of my lanterns and spare flashlights. Hope they're good, since last tsime I was shopping, there were no batteries in the size I needed.

At least it's not cold out!!!!!

Glad you got some rain and hope you get more., Maybe the clouds will turn back down towards you there before they dump all their water up here on Arkansas.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Marthinhouse, glad you are well! Changing batteries in flashlights and lanterns was one of the last things I did, aside from securing the yard.

Really glad you have rain coming and hope it's on the peaceful side! We're about to go into a week of 100+ temps again...no rain forecasted.

Could be worse!
 

TxGal

Day by day

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NEW ZEALAND’S SOUTH ISLAND TREATED TO “STUNNING” LOW-LEVEL SNOW, WITH ANOTHER “SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT” ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY
AUGUST 28, 2020 CAP ALLON

Parts of New Zealand’s South Island were treated to “stunning” frosted mountains this week after a “good dump” of snow blasted northern areas. And, looking ahead, another “significant snow event” is expected early next week.

The sight of snow on the hills towards Picton and the Richmond Ranges was “just stunning,” said Blenheim local Pam Wood.

“[I was] thinking my goodness, that is something I have never seen before and I doubt I’ll see for a very long time,” said Wood; “We’ve obviously seen dustings on Mt Roberts and dustings on Mt Riley and around the Richmond Ranges but I’ve never seen it down low above Havelock like that.”

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) confirms that “considerable snowfall” has indeed accumulated in the region this week.

Niwa said the nearest weather station, located 30km southwest of St Arnaud, received about half a metre of snow on Wednesday, pushing yearly totals to 104% of normal.

“We’ve got a low pressure system and there’s some system fronts in there, and all you basically need is moisture and for it to be dragged up over the hills and for it to be cold enough and you’ve got snow.”

View: https://twitter.com/SnowForecast/status/1298950288540340225


http://instagr.am/p/CEbZ__PAfec/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CEbZ__PAfec/?utm_source=ig_embed


These late-season accumulations are fast making-up for has so far been a relatively snowless winter across NZ’s South Island — up until just a few days ago, some Niwa stations were showing snow at or around 50% of normal:


Niwa data showing snow depth at South Island monitoring stations.

However, this lack of powder hasn’t been the fault of the temperature –it has certainly been cold enough for snow– and is instead due to a lack of moisture in the air. As Niwa snow experts Dr Christian Zammit and Dr Jono Conway explain: while the early part of the season was fairly typical, the snow then dried up; and while frigid temperatures in early-August would have been ideal for snow-making, there was no precipitation at that time.

“Some flurries” continued into Thursday and Friday, reports Niwa, but conditions over the weekend are set to be “dry and settled”.

However, looking forward, the agency is keeping a close eye on next week’s developments with their models currently forecasting another “significant snow event” for Tues, Sept 1.

Stay tuned for updates.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING; in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Even NASA appears to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Iowa’s farmers double blast: First the derecho, now a dramatic drought
By Strange Sounds - Aug 28, 2020

A derecho’s hurricane-force winds slammed through about half of Chad West’s 4,500 acres of corn and soybeans Aug. 10.

Now, the drought is burning up the rest of his crop, the central Iowa farmer said.
drought iowa august 2020, drought iowa august 2020 largest in decades

The latest US Drought Monitor released Thursday morning showed drought has expanded across 96 percent of Iowa. It’s the largest drought coverage area in the state since September of 2013. Picture: Scott Olson / Getty Images file

West, 49, spent part of this week disking under 300 acres of corn that’s considered a complete loss.

You put so much time, money and effort into a crop, to give up and say, ‘We’re not going to harvest this’ … it’s really disheartening,” he said, adding that he anticipates he will need to disk under another 400 flattened acres of corn, too.

The ever-widening drought now encompasses three-fifths of Iowa, the U.S. Drought Monitor’s latest map showed Thursday. Nearly all of the rest of the state is considered abnormally dry, with only a few pockets of Iowa escaping both the drought and derecho.

drought usa august 2020, drought iowa august 2020, after derecho now drought in Iowa

Extreme drought after derecho in Iowa. Map: Drought Monitor

Drought details

More than 60% of Iowa is now in some form of drought, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.
Parts of 34 Iowa counties are now in severe drought, up from 29 one week ago, according to the USDA. Thirteen west-central Iowa counties remain in extreme drought, a figure unchanged over the past three weeks.

Overall, 60.88% of Iowa is in some type of drought. Almost 97% of Iowa is listed as abnormally dry.


View: https://twitter.com/25Barnett/status/1299301828136402944


The National Weather Service in Des Moines published new data this week that revealed the toll the drought is taking on west-central Iowa. Through Aug. 20, Carroll County received 11 inches less rain than normal and 12.52 inches less rain than normal, according to the NWS.

Guthrie Center and Audubon received about 13 inches and 11 inches less rain than normal, according to the NWS.

The drought is spreading farther north. Storm Lake received 5 inches less rain than normal, according to the NWS in Sioux Falls.

View: https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1298103785093357569


Over the past week, Iowa saw temperatures soar to nearly 100 degrees, baking corn and soybean fields, many already damaged by the storm. Some rain-starved Iowa cities — such as Carroll and Audubon — have recorded about a foot less annual precipitation than average.

Justin Glisan, the state climatologist, said Thursday that the growing drought in Iowa is the most severe since one that spanned 151 weeks from 2011-14.

This year’s drought will most likely push farmers into fields by mid-September, about two weeks earlier than normal, to combine corn and soybeans that the adverse weather is driving to maturity faster, though with lower yields.


Lower temperatures and a chance of rain are forecast in the days ahead, but any precipitation is likely to be too late to provide much help.

The drought has the Des Moines Water Works concerned about high toxin levels from blue-green algae in the Des Moines River. The utility said it’s unable to tap the river for drinking water because of high microcystin levels.

The agency primarily relies on the Raccoon River for drinking water for 500,000 central Iowa residents, though it also draws from the Des Moines.

It’s really a source of last resort,” said Des Moines Water Works CEO Ted Corrigan, who’s also closely monitoring declining water levels in the Raccoon.

The microcystin levels in the Des Moines River in recent days were eight to 11 times higher than the federal recommendation for water consumed by toddlers and infants. Toxic blue-green algae likes the warm, stagnant water that droughts generate, most likely centering in the river’s Saylorville reservoir.

We don’t have a treatment process that targets removal of microcystins generated within the algae,” Corrigan said. “Our best bet is just to avoid it.

The utility is considering drilling wells in the alluvial aquifer along the Des Moines River that would eliminate its exposure to blue-green algae, Corrigan said. He added that the well water also tends to be lower in nitrates and other pollutants.

But the new alluvial wells “would cost tens of millions of dollars” and would be likely to push consumer bills higher, he said.

This week, we’re at the intersection of poor water quality, high demand and drought,” said Corrigan, though he said the utility does not plan to impose limits on water usage. It would first ask consumers to curb watering lawns, which absorbs as much of 40% of the supply.

Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said that if there’s any good news in the latest Drought Monitor report, “it’s that the extreme drought hasn’t grown.” It remains centered on 11 counties in west-central Iowa.

View: https://twitter.com/NASAHarvest/status/1298673814629490689


Larry Buss, who farms in western Iowa near Logan, said crops there would be drying up without widespread irrigation in the Missouri River valley. In small pockets where irrigation hasn’t reached soybeans, “they’re dead,” said Buss, who farms with his family. “Our crop is going to be shortened up.

Glisan, the state climatologist, said the Midwest has seen droughts become more frequent and intense over the past 30 years. A drought in 1988 and the one that peaked in 2012 were expansive, he said.

A 2018 drought caused by a high-pressure ridge camped over most of Missouri also hit southern Iowa. Even last year — when many western Iowa farmers were dealing with flooding — eastern and central Iowa were in moderate droughts, Glisan said.

So if you look at the time series going back to 2000, we have seen a pretty substantial portion of that in drought,” Glisan said.

Some farmers have told Mark Licht, an Iowa State University crop specialist, they could begin harvesting drought-hit fields as early as Labor Day weekend.

A farm near Licht’s central Iowa home was green on Sunday but had turned mostly yellow by Wednesday. Some plants were brown and losing their leaves, the natural process crops follow before being harvested.

And, the Western U.S. is facing the worst megadrought in over 1,200 years, say a recent study:


West, the central Iowa farmer who was disking under corn this week, said his crop insurance will help him with damaged and destroyed crops, hit both by the drought and the derecho. “I’ll be all right financially,” he said Wednesday.

He’s had to buy a special piece of equipment — a $12,000 corn reel — that will help him harvest corn that’s lying down because of the derecho winds.

Still, disking under a corn crop shakes him. “This isn’t what farmers do. It feels like a failure if you’re not combining a crop,” said West, coming from a field that his family has farmed for 100 years.

It was shaping up to be a good crop before the storm hit.

We’ve never done this before,” West said. “It doesn’t seem right.

And be prepared to bite the dust once again, because scientists think the Dust Bowl is coming back for a second round. And this time for it could even last during decades.


So do you think we are heading to a new megadrought in the U.S.? Well this new threat on soy and corn harvests could have dramatic consequences on food prices and industry in North America. Be ready!
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
TxGal, I just woke up here. Still dry outside, we're supposed to get lots of rain starting this afternoon. I'm hoping I'm up to doing some raking. My sidewalks are totally covered with leaves from this early leaf fall, and it would be nice to have that all cleared off so the rain can wash things nice and clean.

Between raking and making sure the chickens and rabbits have lots of extra food and water, I'll be busy until nnonnn since it takes me so long to do anything.

I don't mind lots of rain, since my whole place has a little bit of slope to it.....I just hope we don't lose power. I think it's sort of expected that we will. If I have time before the action starts, I'll check batteries in a couple of my lanterns and spare flashlights. Hope they're good, since last tsime I was shopping, there were no batteries in the size I needed.

At least it's not cold out!!!!!

Glad you got some rain and hope you get more., Maybe the clouds will turn back down towards you there before they dump all their water up here on Arkansas.

FYI, just started raining here in south Houston metro area. Hello Laura.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzBbQmGX0hQ


Food Prices and Cargo Theft Skyrocket (1025)
7,404 views • Aug 28, 2020

Run time is 6:39

There is a direct relationship between high food prices and cargo theft. With the UK having its lowest crop yields in 40 years, summer snowdrifts in Russia, the global food landscape looks well under the rosy forecasts in the beginning of 2020. Are you ready for trucks to stop arriving at your supermarkets?
 

flame

Senior Member
the county above me went into rationing water this week..it is dry. Next thing up? Probably grass fires...we have them on occasion.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
I remember reading in stories about how prairie grass fires were. Is you area considered prairie?

Ice Age Farmer has added yet more awful stuff since you posted about it earlier.
 

flame

Senior Member
we are a mix of farming and protected areas, we haven't seen fire around here for oh...I'm gonna say it's been 14/15 yrs. The last fire took out houses and out buildings outside of town a few miles..we are somewhat sparsely populated so damage was kept at a minimum.
 

TxGal

Day by day

How cold was the ice age? Researchers now know
August 28, 2020 by Robert

Short answer? At the very depth of the last ice age (about 20,000 years ago), average global temperature was 6 degrees Celsius (11 F) colder than today. But remember, they’re talking about average GLOBAL temperature, which includes all of those areas covered by one to two miles of ice. Average temperatures in many parts of the world were sometimes not all that much colder than today.

The following is from a release written by the University of Arizona.
______________

How cold was the ice age? Researchers now know
how-cold-was-the-ice-age-researchers-now-knowl-1024x695.jpg

Image credit: Jessica Tierney, University of Arizona

A team of scientists has nailed down the temperature at the peak of the last ice age, a time known as the Last Glacial Maximum, to about 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

Their findings allow climate scientists to better understand the relationship between today’s rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide—a major greenhouse gas—and average global temperature.

(Just for clarity, I disagree that atmospheric carbon dioxide is ‘a major greenhouse gas.’)

The Last Glacial Maximum, or LGM, occurred about 20,000 years ago and was a frigid period when glaciers covered about half of North America, Europe and South America and many parts of Asia, while flora and fauna that were adapted to the cold thrived.

“We have a lot of data about this time period because it has been studied for so long. But one question science has long wanted answers to is simple: How cold was the ice age?” said Jessica Tierney of the University of Arizona, who led the team that also includes scientists from the University of Michigan, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Washington.

Tierney is lead author of a paper published today in Nature that found that the average global temperature of the ice age was 6 degrees Celsius (11 F) cooler than today. For context, the average global temperature of the 20th century was 14 C (57 F).

(Remember, they’re talking about average GLOBAL temperature, which includes all of those areas covered by kilometers of ice. Average temperatures in many parts of the world were sometimes not all that much colder than today.)

Co-authors of the Nature paper include Christopher Poulsen, a professor in the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and former U-M postdoctoral researcher Jiang Zhu, who is now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

For the project, the researchers used a technique that combines fossil data of past temperatures with climate model output to create maps that show how temperature differences varied in specific regions around the globe. Zhu and Poulsen were responsible for developing the climate model simulations of the LGM.

“Six degrees of global average cooling is enormous. The world would have looked much different during the last glacial maximum,” said Poulsen, who is also the associate dean for natural sciences at the U-M College of Literature, Science, and the Arts.

“The northern portions of North America, including here in Ann Arbor, Michigan, were covered by kilometers of ice,” he said. “The biggest cooling was in the high latitudes.”

The researchers said their findings fit with scientific understanding of how Earth’s poles react to temperature changes.

“Climate models predict that the high latitudes will get warmer faster than low latitudes,” Tierney said. “When you look at future projections, it gets really warm over the Arctic. That’s referred to as polar amplification. Similarly, during the LGM, we find the reverse pattern. Higher latitudes are just more sensitive to climate change and will remain so going forward.”

(The press release now veers off to talk about atmospheric carbon, I suppose to justify the researcher’s funding sources.)

Knowing the temperature of the ice age matters because it is used to calculate climate sensitivity, meaning how much the global temperature shifts in response to atmospheric carbon. The researchers determined that for every doubling of atmospheric carbon, global temperature should increase by 3.4 C (6.1 F), which is in the middle of the range predicted by the latest generation of climate models (1.8 to 5.6 C).

“Without having an accurate estimate of the LGM temperature, we couldn’t be confident in how temperature responded to changes in atmospheric carbon,” Zhu said. “Our results provide that confidence.”

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during the ice age were about 180 parts per million, which is very low. Before the Industrial Revolution, levels rose to about 280 parts per million, and today they’ve reached 415 parts per million.

“The Paris Agreement wanted to keep global warming to no larger than 2.7 F (1.5 C) over pre-industrial levels, but with carbon dioxide levels increasing the way they are, it would be extremely difficult to avoid more than 3.6 F (2 C) of warming,” Tierney said. “We already have about 2 F (1.1 C) under our belt, but the less warm we get the better, because the Earth system really does respond to changes in carbon dioxide.”

(Now the release gets back on track.)

Since there were no thermometers in the ice age, the researchers developed models to translate data collected from ocean plankton fossils into sea-surface temperatures. They then combined the fossil data with climate model simulations of the LGM using a technique called data assimilation, which is used in weather forecasting.

In the future, the researchers plan to use the same technique to recreate warm periods in Earth’s past.

(I would love to see their planned recreation of earlier warm periods, because those earlier warm periods took place long before the Industrial Revolution.)

“If we can reconstruct past warm climates,” Tierney said, “then we can start to answer important questions about how the Earth reacts to really high carbon dioxide levels, and improve our understanding of what future climate change might hold.”

The research was supported by the Heising-Simons Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

Release written by the University of Arizona

August 26, 2020
Contact: Jim Erickson ericksn@umich.edu,
Mikayla Mace mikaylamace@arizona.edu

More information:
 

TxGal

Day by day

Cold wave arrives in Spain
August 28, 2020 by Robert

Temperatures far lower than normal, abundant rains and snow.

08/27/2020 – According to the AEMET, as of Friday the temperatures in several areas of the interior and north will run 10º C to 15º C lower than usual.

The abrupt drop in temperatures will be accompanied by abundant rains in the northeast, the Cantabrian Sea and Catalonia, and even leave snow in the Pyrenees area.

The polar air mass entering the north of the peninsula on Friday will bring a notable drop in temperatures.

Llega una ola de frío a España: bajada de temperaturas, lluvias abundantes y nieve a partir del viernes
 

TxGal

Day by day

Mann’s hockey stick ironically proves Sun (not CO2) drives climate
August 27, 2020 by Robert

“CO2 is irrelevant.”
– Dr. Roger Higgs
____________

“This 3-minute read makes it glaringly obvious that, unsurprisingly, climate change (including current global warming) is driven by our inconstant star, the Sun,” writes Dr Roger Higgs. “CO2 is irrelevant.”

“Naturally the United Nations IPCC claims the exact opposite, due to its grotesque in-built bias, i.e. ‘climate scientists’, a newly invented profession of opportunists whose careers DEPEND on public belief that perfectly natural, unthreatening global warming is man-made; see my (PDF) IPCC next climate assessment report (AR6, due 2022) − 784 authors but again no geologists! .

“The IPCC (2013) says CO2 controls Earth’s climate and the Sun is irrelevant. This monumental blunder is costing western economies $$trillions in needless efforts to reduce harmless (hugely beneficial) CO2; see my (PDF) IPCC three pillars of man-made global warming: collapsed .

Manns-hockey-stick-ironically-proves.png


CONCLUSIONS

1. Collective proof that the Sun (not CO2) controls climate:

A) solar output & global temperature (Graphs 1-3) have “very similar … ‘hockey-stick’ shape” (Usoskin et al. 2005) and
B) their highest/lowest peaks correspond (circles in Graphs 2, 3; NB time-lag due to ‘ocean memory’ [Higgs 2020])
C) CO2 ‘handle’ has reverse slope (Graph 4).

WHO IS DR ROGER HIGGS?
Here’s his answer:

WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years’ worldwide geological consulting experience, I’m now in my 5th year of self-funded (hence impartial) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics and palaeoclimatology, as opposed to ‘climate science’ (mostly computer modelling, ‘Garbage in, garbage out’).

Dr Roger Higgs Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2020-9 23rd Aug 2020 rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
We’ve been had. FOR PREVIOUS VERSIONS of this contribution, equally brief, please see my Technical Notes 2017-1 and 3 … (PDF) The 'hockey stick' is correct & proves the sun (not mankind) has driven climate change since 2ka
(PDF) The 'hockey stick' is correct & proves the sun (not mankind) has driven climate change since 2ka - UPDATE

SOURCES

GRAPH 1 … Mann et al. 1999. N Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MBH1999.pdf

GRAPH 2 … PAGES2K 2017 Consortium. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era.
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

GRAPH 3 …Vieira, Solanki, Krivova & Usoskin 2011. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2011/07/aa15843-10.pdf

GRAPH 4 … MacFarling et al. 2006. Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP
Error - Cookies Turned Off

Higgs 2020. The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by neglected ocean inertia. Another Sun-driven 3-metre sea-
level rise is underway.
(PDF) The Sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change, delayed decades by neglected ocean inertia. Another Sun-driven 3-metre sea-level rise is underway.

IPCC (United Nations) 2013. See fig. SPM.5 Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Solanki et al. 2004. Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years.
https://www.academia.edu/24429303/

Usoskin et al. 2005. Solar activity over the last 1150 years: does it correlate with climate?http://www2.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/c153.pdf

Hockey stick graph. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

See larger graphs:
https://www.researchgate.net/public...nically_proves_the_Sun_not_CO2_drives_climate
 

TxGal

Day by day
And another 'oh boy' from me -

Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH-PR03Mz-s


Winter Forecast High Food Prices and Cancelled Credit Cards (1026)
8,088 views • Aug 28, 2020

Run time is 8:57

Synopsis provided:

Just as food prices spike banks are cutting credit card limits and the N. Hemisphere settles in for the coldest winter in a century with crop losses sending grocery bills upward. Australia highest snowfall total ever recorded in a non-alpine area. Russia pummeled with summer snow drifts and record cold temperatures. Grand Solar Minimum ON !
 

TxGal

Day by day
Ice Age Farmer has a new podcast out:

(It may lean more toward Covid impacts, but I'm including it here because it is about what appears to be our shrinking food supply - especially given that we're beginning to slide into fall/winter and more GSM articles are appearing):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVGzrMbFQAI


FOOD SHUTDOWN: Farmworkers flee COVID-19 tests - CA Orders Meat Plant Closure
11,983 views • Aug 29, 2020

Run time is 14:31

Synopsis provided:

Workers are fleeing farms to avoid mandatory COVID-19 testing. California is ordering meat plants to close. The "second wave" has arrived as an controlled demolition of our food supply, to allow the totalitarian, technocratic takeover of our food supply and society. Spread the word and start growing food.
 

TxGal

Day by day


cold-uk-summer-frost.jpg


BRITAIN BRACES FOR COLDEST AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY ON RECORD AS ARCTIC AIR ENGULFS WESTERN EUROPE
AUGUST 29, 2020 CAP ALLON

Following on from the UK’s historically cool July (its coldest since 1988), AUTUMNAL conditions will return to British Isles and western Europe this weekend, with Briton’s bracing for their coldest August Bank Holiday on record.

Rare summer frosts will grip parts of the UK over the next few mornings, as the mercury takes an unseasonable plunge thanks to a violently descending trough of Arctic air — a phenomenon which is predicted to increase due to the historically low solar activity we’re receiving and its impact on the jet stream: weakening its tight ZONAL flow to more of a wavy MERIDIONAL flow:


BBC meteorologist Phil Avery admits that this weekend could see a “new record for the coldest Bank Holiday in August” as a powerful Arctic blast engulfs practically ALL of western Europe:


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Sat, Aug 29 [tropicaltidbits.com].


GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Sun, Aug 31 [tropicaltidbits.com].

“If we don’t get to 18C (64.4F) this weekend,” explains Avery; “that would set a new record for the coldest Bank Holiday weekend in August.”

The far southeast will likely reach 17C (62.6F) –at Heathrow by any chance?– but the remainder of he UK will struggle to break 13C or 14C — temps which are some 6C to 7C below the seasonal average. And with regards to the minimum lows, Northern England and Scotland could dip below freezing on Sunday morning, with southern parts tumbling well below double-digits.

50 mph (80 kmh) gales will make it feel even colder.

“There are showers, and wind coming in from the North Sea,” continues Avery. “That wind and cloud gradually drifts itself down into East Anglia and London. And because the wind is essentially from the north, it is not going to be warm.”

Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze says: “Frost is the cherry on the cake after the past week saw some of the worst summer weather of the past 50 years, with named storms Ellen and Francis.”

Furthermore, there is another all-time cold-record seriously under-threat this weekend: the coldest daytime maximum temperature ever recorded during the UK’s late-August Bank Holiday weekend (since the holiday began in 1971) is the 9.1C (48.4C) set in 2011 at Cromdale, Scotland, Met Office records show — and this low is forecast to be busted on Saturday, on Sunday, AND on Monday.

By stark contrast, at exactly this time last year the UK was enjoying a balmy Spanish Plume: “Last year’s August bank holiday we recorded 33C,” says Avery; “and we are talking about 18C this year.” This ‘flip’ serves as yet another example of the swings-between-extremes expected during the onset of a Grand Solar Minimum; and while the day-to-day (or year-to-year) weather we’re witnessing is completely unpredictable, the overall trend of the climate is not:

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING; in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow. Even NASA appears to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Don’t fall for bogus, warm-mongering political agendas.

Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Significant snow blankets low-lying parts of Western Cape, South Africa

Lucinda Dordley
Capetownetc.com
Sat, 29 Aug 2020 12:20 UTC

snow

The Western Cape has experienced low temperatures since Friday - and on Saturday certain parts of the region were blanketed in snow. Matroosberg, Sutherland and Ceres regions have been fortunate enough to enjoy significant snowfall.

Snow-Forecast predicted that the Matroosberg area will receive a light covering of snow on Saturday [August 29]. "Temperatures will be below freezing, with a maximum of 0°C on Monday morning [August 31], and min -7°C on Saturday night [August 29]. Winds will also be decreasing, with fresh winds from the west on Saturday morning [August 29], and calm by Monday night [August 31]."

View: https://twitter.com/StormReportSA1/status/1299598574033031168


The area will have mostly dry conditions from Tuesday, September 1 but temperatures will stay at a minimum of -3°C on Tuesday morning. "Winds will be increasing, with light winds from the west on Thursday morning [September 3], and strong winds from the north west by Thursday night," the site reported.

The SA Weather Service (SAWS), also put out a warning for disruptive rain to fall over the Cape Town metropole for Saturday, August 29. Rain is also expected in the Cape Winelands areas, as well as the Overberg region on Saturday.

View: https://twitter.com/StormReportSA1/status/1299589097946841088


View: https://twitter.com/ezaap/status/1299589123452346370


View: https://twitter.com/StormReportSA1/status/1299594615281123328
 

TxGal

Day by day
All, once again Sott.net has many, many articles about flooding and now waterspouts around the globe - far too many to post. Please go to the link and scroll down to read the articles:

 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, this morning's new videos from both IAF and Adapt 2030 are more than just "oh, boy".

They are EEEEEK!

Looks like it's no longer even being hidden. Food production is being blocked completely openly now.

I was hoping to wake early and do some grocery shopping this morning. But I overslept and now I'm glad I did, because I'm busy revising my shopping list. And I will force myself to go early tomorrow even if I've gotten no sleep at all. And then I might even go back Monday so I can hit the feed store early.

Oops! Just checked the forecast. It might be raining hard early tomorrow morning. I can't drive in both dark and rain so I may have to wait and do all the shopping on Monday. Rats!

Oh, well, I'll do my best and that will just have to be good enough.

Thanks for posting so much good GSM information.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Martinhouse, you're welcome! I need to do the same, I think....excellent planning, thank you!

We had that one early rain band from Laura a few days ago, and that's it. We're running 100+ plus again, with heat indices higher than that, we're under a heat advisory and still under a burn ban (thank heavens). Dreadfully dry up here...and blisteringly hot.

I woke up this morning to a lot of duck noise...looked outside and there were 33 black-bellied whistling ducks in our back yard - they usually come up to look for scratch grain from our chickens/domestic ducks. We have pairs that do breed and otherwise spend time on our several ponds, but larger groups do seem to gather and congregate here just before they migrate. This group was a combo of adults and 'teenagers' from what I could tell. I need to check last years' calendar to see what I wrote, but I think they're congregating early by at least a few weeks compared to last year. If so, this likely means an interesting winter....I really hope I'm wrong.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Wow! You posted so much more while I was typing my last post! My head is actually spinning!

I think I'm reaching the point where I nee to take a few deep breaths and go do something else for a while. Not that my mind will stop churning in high gear, but it might help to get something else done at the same time.

So much information really is almost dizzying!
 
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