Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day
I believe I posted this article from Felix's site this morning on the former thread. Posting here to carry things forward:


Record cold in Alaska’s northernmost town

April 29, 2020 by Robert

First time in recorded history that Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow) saw a low of minus 20 (-28.9C) this late in the season.

Utqiagvik (Barrow) Alaska -Sea ice cam – Courtesy University of Alaska Fairbanks

While most of the state is blossoming into spring, areas north of the Brooks Range have still been dealing with cold and blizzard conditions. Early Wednesday morning Utqiagvik saw the thermometer fall to minus 20F, beating the previous record of -19F set back in 1973. It is the first time in recorded history that Utqiagvik saw a low of minus 20 this late in the season.

Utqiagvik, northernmost town in the United States, is the largest city in Alaska’s North Slope Borough and is located north of the Arctic Circle.

Probably not very much ice will be melting at 20 degrees below zero.

Utqiagvik records first record low since 2007

Thanks to Stephen Potter for this link
 

TxGal

Day by day
A few tweets may not copy over, please go to the link to see all (sorry, long day with med appts):


1588304010052.png

Heavy Early-Season Snow Blankets Aussie Ski Resorts as Bone-Chilling Cold Grips the ENTIRE Continent

April 30, 2020 Cap Allon


Many Aussie regions are bracing for will likely be their coldest April day in as many as 60 years on Thurs, April 30. While rare heavy-April snow blankets the nation’s ski resorts.

A brutal Antarctic cold front –forced anonymously-far north on the back of meridional jet stream flow (more on that below)– will engulf pretty much all of the Aussie continent starting today, Thursday, April 30.

By Friday, daytime highs in the state of Victoria are forecast to hold below 12C (53.6F), which will only be the third time in recorded history that’s occurred on May 1. Strong westerly winds will make it feel even colder.

“It’s going to be a cold and unpleasant day,” said Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Chris Arvier — thanks Chris.

Mt Buller received a decent amount of snow overnight Wednesday:

View: https://twitter.com/mtbuller/status/1255729256727900161


Many Aussie regions are bracing for will likely be their coldest April day in as many as 60 years on Thurs, April 30. While rare heavy-April snow blankets the nation’s ski resorts.


A brutal Antarctic cold front –forced anonymously-far north on the back of meridional jet stream flow (more on that below)– will engulf pretty much all of the Aussie continent starting today, Thursday, April 30.

By Friday, daytime highs in the state of Victoria are forecast to hold below 12C (53.6F), which will only be the third time in recorded history that’s occurred on May 1. Strong westerly winds will make it feel even colder.

“It’s going to be a cold and unpleasant day,” said Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Chris Arvier — thanks Chris.

Mt Buller received a decent amount of snow overnight Wednesday:



Snow in Mount Buller on Thursday.

Mount Buller snow.

With Mt Hotham adding impressive powder Thursday morning:

View: https://twitter.com/Melbourne/status/1255649945211867136


And there’s a lot more where that came from.

An additional half a metre of snow (1.64 ft) is forecast for Aussie ski resorts on Friday, with daytime highs climbing to just -2C (28.4F) across alpine regions.

A further half a metre of snow is then set for the weekend.

View: https://twitter.com/AndyOz2/status/1255487671889285120


The COLD TIMES are returning in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.



GFS Temp Anomalies (C) — April 30 to May 16 [https://tropicaltidbits.com]

Even NASA agrees, in part at least, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) revealing it will be “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Don’t fall for bogus warm-mongering political agendas — our future is one of ever-descending COLD.

Prepare accordinglearn the cycles, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Hardhat

Scientists report terrifying ice lumps that could be the largest hailstones recorded



Tessa Koumoundouros
Science Alert
Thu, 30 Apr 2020 18:54 UTC

1588304402088.png
One of the hailstones from the storm in Argentina.
The hailstone is so massive it even stunned meteorologists.

"It's incredible," said meteorologist Matthew Kumjian from Penn State University in the US. "This is the extreme upper end of what you'd expect from hail."

The hefty ice lump smashed down from a supercell thunderstorm in Argentina two years ago, in the heavily populated town Villa Carlos Paz. In a recently published study, Kumjian and colleagues have concluded the hailstone is possibly the largest ever recorded - estimated to be up to 23.7 centimetres (over 9 inches).

However, as its dimensions were only gleaned from video evidence (below, 11 seconds in), and not direct measurements, they can't conclusively say it's the largest to be recorded.

View: https://twitter.com/LeoOrozco3105/status/961690036910641153


Another hailstone from the same storm, recorded by local Victoria Druetta, came in at 18 centimetres (7.1 inches), after she saw chunks of it smash off during the impact of its landing.


Hail
© Victoria Druetta
Such horrific hailstones require special conditions - massive storms with powerful updrafts to keep them aloft long enough to pack on that weight. They start as raindrops sucked above freezing altitudes in a storm, and as they're tossed about up there, layers of supercool liquid water freeze onto them - the twists and turns moulding their lumpy lobed structures.

Such updrafts and windfields that twist and strengthen with height are promoted by warm and humid conditions, and radar information from this recent study showed this large hail fell close to where the main updraft occurred.

The examined hail also showed substantial wet growth, which occurs in the lower part of hail growth zones within the storms, suggesting the updraft there must be particularly strong for these giants to obtain their size.

As fascinating as this may be from a safe distance, hail of course is also extraordinarily dangerous, and more so the larger it gets.

"Hail can cause significant damage to property and agriculture, as well as injuries or even deaths," the researchers wrote in their paper.

They proposed officially classifying hailstones larger than 15 centimetres (6 inches) as "gargantuan", to help warn us all of their damaging potential.

"Anything larger than about a quarter in size can start putting dents into your car," Kumjian said. "In some rare cases, 6-inch hail has actually gone through roofs and multiple floors in houses. We'd like to help mitigate the impacts on life and property, to help anticipate these kinds of events."

(Read more here)

This research has been published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Dennis, I don't understand why the whole thread had to be deleted. Aren't we entitled to have our own contributions to the thread remain on it if we wish? How can he dictate what's done to our posts? Especially after he left it here for such a long time already and let it become so huge? Maybe you could dig deep into part (a.) of part (1.) of part (A.) of Section seventy-leven and find that little rule about a time or size limit for any OP's request to delete a thread?

PS Is he still a member here?
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Let me 'splain it to you. There were 200 pages to that thread. Neither myself nor any other staff member was going to spin through 200 pages of 40 posts per page and edit out von Koehler's posts. That's just not realistic. We all have lives and things to do other than this forum.

The thread owner has certain rights regarding what happens to "their" thread. He whined about it and I really had to take action. He didn't want others using "his" posts. In other words, he was acting like a petulant child. However, he's within his rights to request removal.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Thanks for the answer, Dennis. I certainly would not have expected any one of you to edit out his posts. It never occurred to me because much as I hate to admit it, his posts were a good part of the thread in the first few months.

It's just so disappointing that there are people who can act like that! Don't know where you find as much patience as you do!
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
The thread is still available. (We only "soft delete", which effectively makes it invisible). If you can convince his whinyness to allow some of his material to be placed onto this thread, we can try it.
 

TxGal

Day by day
When I can pull together some down time (maybe not until next week), I'll go back and pull in some of the most important info like the podcasts from Zharkova, etc. It's all out there, we just need to bring it back here.


Winter is Coming – Super Grand Solar Minimum

Brian Wang| November 22, 2018


1588336901562.png

Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.

Zharkova models solar sunspot and magnetic activity. Her models have run at a 93% accuracy and her findings suggest a Super Grand Solar Minimum could begin in 2020.

A Super Grand Solar Minimum would have four magnetic fields out of phase. There was about 40-60 years of cold weather 350 years ago. This was a Maunder Minimum of lower solar activity. The historical cold weather had two magnetic fields out of phase.


Zharkova is predicting a cooling effect that is 2.5 to 4 times larger than the Maunder minimum. Zharkova’s analysis shows an 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). A 2015 Nature study looked at 2 watts per square meter decrease causing a 0.13-degree celsius effect. A four times larger effect would be 0.5-degree celsius.

Zharkova believes the warming models are including the warming effect of increased solar activity. If she is correct there would be cooling and the warming models would be wrong.

Michael J. I. Brown of Monash University criticizes the solar activity argument.

Nature – Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum



1588337002206.png

Numerous studies have identified links between past climate and solar variability. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), very few sunspots were seen despite regular observations. If the past relationships between TSI and ultraviolet irradiance and sunspots are the same as are observed for modern solar variability, then a decline in both TSI and ultraviolet for this period can be assumed. The Maunder Minimum coincided with more severe winters in the UK and continental Europe and many reconstructions suggest atmospheric conditions were broadly comparable with the regional effects on European atmospheric circulation found here. Some modeling studies also support the idea that similar regional cooling and circulation changes occurred during this period.

View: https://youtu.be/M_yqIj38UmY
 

TxGal

Day by day

Valentina Zharkova on the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum



Posted by TW on July 1, 2019 at 23:37 UTC (10 months ago)
Categories: Editors' picks, Research

Valentina Zharkova on the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum


Valentina Zharkova's article confirming the next Grand Solar Minimum titled, 'Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale' has been accepted for publishing in Nature. Her team predicts the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055. The GSM cycle will again arrive in 2370 – 2415.

With the release of this paper, she clarifies her new findings on the Super Grand Minimum Cycle.

When GWPF released her presentation there was quite a bit of speculation in regards to the "blurred out slides" referencing the Super Grand Minimum cycle. The slides were blurred due to a peer review process and data was under embargo. We now understand the last minimum of a super-grand cycle occurred at the beginning of Maunder minimum.

Her team's calculations match up with the timelines of the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350), Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); also the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm Period (400–150 BC) and so on with great accuracy.

Currently, in the cycle of Super Grand Minimum cycles, the baseline magnetic field and solar irradiance are increasing to reach its maximum at 2600, after which the baseline magnetic field will be decreasing for another 1000 years. Why is this significant? It clearly shows we warm and cool as a part of these complex natural cycles. Our planet and Sun move in a complex orbital pattern which in turn affects our climate.

The IPCC reported that 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) could be reached in as little as 11 years and Valentina's model using SIM (Solar Inertial Motion) predicts a warming trend indeed. However, her team predicts an increase of terrestrial temperature by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) per 100 years.

The upcoming grand solar minimum predicted, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055 is a huge cause for concern. We are already witnessing increased unstable weather patterns, prolonged major floods, massive crop failures and wild swings in temperature (both up and down) among other extreme events, including high-level volcanic eruptions, suggesting NOW is the time to adapt.

The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum," is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare. It roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures.

Both NASA and NOAA are forecasting very low solar activity during the next solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), in fact, the lowest in 200 years.

NOAA released a more modest preliminary forecast on April 5, 2019, similar to NASA's Kitiashvili’s predictions they state Cycle 25 will be similar in size to Cycle 24 or lower.

NOAA expects that sunspot maximum will occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026 (Kitiashvili’s Prediction 2024 - 2025), with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130 (Kitiashvili’s Prediction a very LOW 50).

In addition, NOAA expects the end of Cycle 24 and start of Cycle 25 to occur no earlier than July 2019, and no later than September 2020. The panel hopes to release a final, detailed forecast for Cycle 25 by the end of 2019.

Looking at independent solar researcher David Birch's chart, it's clear to see we are already near Dalton Minimum levels.

1588337251561.png
Valentina's new paper:
  • "Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale" - V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, S. I. Zharkov & E. Popova - Nature Scientific Reports - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45584-3
Abstract
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

Please take time to watch this easy to decipher discussion with Valentina Zharkova on the Grand Solar Minimum Channel on Youtube:

View: https://youtu.be/Bl2gg7lT7OM


Make sure you also check out David DuByne, Bill & Richard Porter's New Book - Climate Revolution. This book has over 200 pages that cover the topic of The Grand Solar Minimum in depth.

1588337355088.png
 

TxGal

Day by day

Professor Valentina Zharkova’s ‘Expanded’ Analysis still Confirms Super Grand Solar Minimum (2020-2055)

July 2, 2019 Cap Allon


Professor Valentina Zharkova’s recent paper ‘Oscillations of the Baseline of Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Irradiance on a Millennial Timescale’ has been accepted for publishing in Nature. It confirms a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) from 2020 to 2055, as all four magnetic fields of the sun go out of phase, while also suggesting centuries of natural warming post-Minima.

Zharkova’s team’s expanded ‘double dynamo’ calculations match-up almost perfectly with the timelines of past Grand Minimas: the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf minimum (1300–1350), Oort minimum (1000–1050), Homer minimum (800–900 BC); as well as with the past Grand Maximas: the Medieval Warm Period (900–1200), the Roman Warm Period (400–150 BC), and so on…

Coming as somewhat of a surprise however, Zharkova’s full and expanded analysis reveals the sun, following its next GSM cycle (2020-2055), will actually enter a 300+ year spell of increased-activity warming the earth at a rate of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, running until the next GSM cycle (2370-2415).

Succeeding that cooling period (2415-onward), the world, according to Zharkova, will continue on with its warming trend, again at an average of 0.5C (0.9F) per century, until the year 2600 when the sun will flip to a prolonged cooling phase running for the next 1000 years (and likely propelling Earth into the next ice age).

It is a little confusing why Zharkova failed to mention these long spells of warming (2055-2370 and then 2415-2600) in her original ‘teaser’ presentation back in October, 2018. Whether it has been included to continue her funding and/or to see her GSM message reach a wider audience is honestly anyone’s guess.

Though to her credit, at least the 0.5C (0.9F) warming per century is driven by the sun, and not you, not CO2.

Zharkova’s work, at worst, confirms that the earth warms and cools as a part of complex natural cycles.

For a more detailed look at the paper, click here for tallbloke’s breakdown.

And, to me at least, it remains a fair takeaway that regardless of what happens post-2055, that 35 year cooling period beginning 2020 should be enough to give almost-every living organism on the planet cause for concern.

Historically, life hasn’t done too well in the cold:

‘Extinctions NOT Driven by Global Warming’ — by Dr Jay Lehr and Tom Harris



“You have no reason to fear global warming-induced species extinction. We should focus our efforts on protecting wildlife from real human threats.”


Electroverse

Our star is effectively shutting down, starting next year (2020).

The upcoming GSM is forecast (by Zharkova herself, among others) to be similar to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) — a time when sunspots were exceedingly rare and much of the planet experienced colder than average temperatures.

We are already seeing an increase in unstable weather patterns, as the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years (SC24) continues to weaken the jet stream, reverting it’s usual zonal (tight) flow to more of a meridional (wavy) one.

Major flooding, snowstorms, anomalous cold and bursts of unseasonable heat are all contributing to one of the poorest growing years on record for the farmers around the globe.

An uptick in high-level volcanic eruptions is also associated with low solar activity. Increasing Cosmic Rays are believed to heat the muons in subsurface silica-rich magma (click here for more on that). And larger eruptions (ones that fire volcanic ash above 32,800 feet (10 km) and into the Stratosphere) have a direct cooling effect on the planet, as these ejected particulates effectively block out the sun.

An influx of Cosmic Rays (caused by a decrease in deflecting solar winds) also nucleate more clouds (Svensmark) and these play an major role in earth’s climate:

“Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.” — Roy W. Spencer PhD.


Unfortunately things are only expected to get worse, until 2055 at least, with now even NASA joining in the fun with their latest SC25 forecast suggesting it’ll be the weakest cycle for the last 200 years, continuing the solar shutdown:




The agency is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) without giving mention to the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it.

The year 1816 went on to earn the name, “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death“ (see the link below).

The cold times are returning.

The next Solar Cycle (25) is likely just a stop-off on our descent into the next super Grand Solar Minimum cycle.

Prepare
 

TxGal

Day by day
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyyuouPSNEA


How the sun affects temperatures on Earth (w/ Valentina Zharkova, Northumbria University)

Run time is 23:20

The sun is going through a stage known as a solar or Maunder Minimum. This is where the solar activity that ignites solar flares or sun spots has decreased. It’s a normal cycle and one that has been linked to the mini ice age that lasted more than 50 years starting in the mid-1600s. According to space weather since 2015, the number of days without a recordable sun spot has been rising year over year. NOAA, NASA and others all appear to agree the sun is entering a solar minimum phase. What it means is open to interpretation because as Professor William Happer pointed out when I asked him about the growing number of people and agencies that suggest a solar minimum could lead to a cooling off period, he directed me the Danish proverb: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” It has been suggested that mathematics can establish patterns and back them up with empirical evidence to support a prediction. We reached out to Professor of Mathematics Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, one of the first people to raise awareness of the decrease in solar activity, for a Conversation That Matters about the sun, its reduced activity and her reading of the impact it will have on temperatures on earth.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Wow! That is a shame as there was good info on that. He had left several times before when he didn't feel like he was getting the credit he deserved IIRC and even started his own site on it without success. Thank you for starting a new thread for folks to carry on!!
 

PJM

Contributing Member
You're welcome! It's a start :-)
You have added so much information to this thread and we do appreciate all of your work. You have also shown yourself to be far more trustworthy than some!

And Martinhouse too, you inspire me to keep doing just that little bit more everyday. I’m glad this thread is still alive.
 

TxGal

Day by day
You have added so much information to this thread and we do appreciate all of your work. You have also shown yourself to be far more trustworthy than some!

And Martinhouse too, you inspire me to keep doing just that little bit more everyday. I’m glad this thread is still alive.
Awww, thank you! Keeping it going has been - and I'm sure will continue to be - very much a team effort. :-)
 

TxGal

Day by day
More reference material:


Ice-Age Maps

May 6, 2011 by bob

1588429288252.png
Extent of Glaciation in North America

Solid line: Approximate extent of glaciation during the last ice age.
Dotted line: Approximate extent of previous glaciation.

Above the black line, the area was covered with ice.
Below the line, people could have survived.

See other maps (including Europe) here:

Ice-age maps
 

TxGal

Day by day
Reference material:


Temperatures were warmer than today for most of the past 10,000 years

May 25, 2010 by bob

25 May 10 – The revamped cap-and-trade (control-and-tax) bill that Senators Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.) are trying to foist on the American public is predicated on a flat-out lie.

The control-and-tax proponents would have you believe that our planet has been enduring unprecedented global warming (now coyly referred to as “climate change”), but the facts do not bear that out. Facts. Oh, those damnable facts.

Look at this chart.

Easterbrook - Natural global warming

Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years.
You’ll see that today’s benign climate is not even close to being the warmest on record.

Not even close.

Temperatures have been warmer than today for almost all of the past 10,000 years.

In fact, if the chart went further back, you’d see that temperatures have been warmer than today for most of geologic history.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Reference material:


Anyone who says we’re enduring “unprecedented global warming” is lying or woefully misinformed

October 12, 2016 by Robert

It is colder right now than throughout almost all of history.

Look at this chart. The blue line shows temperatures for the past 600 million years.


Temperature and CO2 thru time



Look at the far right side of the chart (today), and you’ll see that blue line plunge to its lowest point in almost 250 million years.

There have been only two periods in the past 600 million years when it has been colder than today.

Right now, today, we are living through one of the coldest periods in geologic history. The last few year’s minor rise in temperature is too minuscule to even show up on the chart.

Anyone who says we’re enduring “unprecedented global warming” is lying or woefully misinformed.

Are you listening, Al Gore?

Graph from “Climate and the Carboniferous Period”
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

Thanks to Guy (Terra Hertz) for this link

“There’s simply no way for AGW and this chart to both be true,” says Guy. “Anyone who says they can’t see the fundamental incompatibility is either lying or retarded.”

See also:
Warmer than today for most of the last 10,000 years
Warmer than today for most of the last 10,000 years - Ice Age Now
 

TxGal

Day by day
Reference material:


Temperatures have been FALLING for 8,000 years

July 26, 2018 by Robert

A picture is worth a thousand words.
______________
Temperatures have been FALLING for 8,000 years

By Ray Kraft

Short term variations, local record hots and colds, don’t mean much, that’s just weather. What matters is long term global trend lines over decades, centuries, millennia, eons, epochs.
.

Expanded record of temperature change since the end of the last glacial period
The only ‘normal’ in climate is constant change

Some places are always hotter than average, some places are all cooler than average, on any particular day (I don’t use ‘normal’ because the only ‘normal’ in climate is constant change).

Average global temps

In the 1880s: 56.7 F.

1920s to 1980s: 57.2 F.

Circa 2000 to 2010: 58.1 F.

These are not ‘hot’ temps. Below 60 degrees most people start putting on sweaters and jackets. At 58 degrees F in your living room you’re probably gonna turn up the heat! It is a good temp for longer term wine storage.
______________________

Source of graph (I added the red arrow):
File:Holocene Temperature Variations.png - Wikimedia Commons
 

TxGal

Day by day

Global cooling: Second largest 2-month temperature drop in history recorded by NOAA satellite

Anthony Watts
Watts Up With That
Fri, 01 May 2020 10:35 UTC

1588430314416.png

In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2020 was +0.38 deg. C, down from the March, 2020 value of +0.48 deg. C.

The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly fell from +0.96 deg. C to 0.43 deg. C from February to April, a 0.53 deg. C drop which is the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record. The largest 2-month drop was -0.69 deg. C from December 1987 to February 1988.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade (but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are:

1588430344461.png

The UAH LT global gridpoint anomaly image for April, 2020 should be available within the next week here.

The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:

Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer

From the Alabama State Climatologist, Dr. John Christy:

Global Temperature Report: April 2020


Global Temperature Report: April 2020

Global climate trend since Dec. 1 1978: +0.135 C per decade
Global climate trend since Dec. 1 1978: +0.135 C per decade
April Temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.38 C (+0.68 °F) above seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.43 C (+0.77 °F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.34 C (+0.61 °F) above seasonal average
Tropics: +0.45 C (+0.81°F) above seasonal average

March Temperatures (Final)

Global composite temp.: +0.48 C (+0.86 °F) above seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.61 C (+1.10 °F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.34 C (+0.61 °F) above seasonal average
Tropics: +0.63 C (+1.13°F) above seasonal average

Notes on data released May 1, 2020 (v6.0)

Seasonally-adjusted temperatures dropped a bit in the tropics and northern hemisphere from March values leading to a global temperature departure from average of +0.38 °C (+0.68 °F). As indicated last month we suggested that the drop is due in part to the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean.
Recall that in the latter months of 2019, a weak, warm El Niño like event occurred which aided in warming up the atmosphere for a few months but that impact is mostly exhausted now. The two-month drop in the Northern Hemisphere temperature of -0.53 °C is rare - exceeded only once in the 497-month history when the hemisphere cooled between the 1987 warm El Niño and the cold 1989 La Niña. The NH temperature dropped -0.69 °C between December 1987 and February 1988.

The region with the warmest departure from average was a large hot spot in central Russia in the Krasnoyarsk Krai region. The peak occurred near Vorogovo at a remarkable +6.4 °C (+11.4 °F) above average. As is usual, when it's very warm in one place, there are usually a series of alternating cold and warm regions in the same latitude belt, reflecting a somewhat stationary pattern. This month the pattern indicates three warm peaks (Central Russia, Gulf of Alaska and Europe) with three cool areas in between (Sea of Japan, Canada and western Russia.) Moving eastward from the peak in central Russia to the cool area in central Canada we find the coldest departure from average near the Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan with a -3.3 °C (-6.0 °F) anomaly.

Comment: This unseasonable warmth in the Russian Far East appears to have had some knock on effects: Wildfires critical in Siberia and Russian Far East, follow 'abnormally warm winter and arid spring'

Besides the locations mentioned above, warmer than average conditions prevailed in the Caribbean Sea, Eastern Antarctica and western Australia. Cooler than average temperatures were found in the southern oceans.

The conterminous U.S. experienced its coolest April since 1998 being -0.59 °C (-1.06 °F) below the seasonal average. April U.S. temperatures have a large range though, being as cool as -2.54 °C (1983) and as warm as +2.08 °C (1981). Alaska was warmer than average in April, so that the 49-state mean temperature departure was not quite as cold as the 48-state value being -0.24 °C (-0.43 °F). [We don't include Hawaii in the US results because its land area is less than that of a satellite grid square, so it would have virtually no impact on the overall national results.]

The remarkable warmth of the lower stratosphere that was linked to the aerosols from the Australian fires last year is apparently fading. The global departure from average for this layer was +0.00 °C in April, down from +0.32 °C last month. Even so, April's temperature was the warmest since the volcanically-induced warming in 1993 after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Sott.net (Earth Changes) has the new Adapt 2030 podcast posted (scroll down for the actual podcast; I posted it exactly as sott.net had it, and it's set up a bit differently from how I post the podcasts normally):


Adapt 2030 Ice Age Report: How many collapses can be on the horizon


Adapt 2030
Fri, 01 May 2020 20:04 UTC




Beef prices rise
© YouTube/Adapt 2030 (screen capture)

Looking at the horizon of life, protein shortages in both beef and pork send prices to record levels, precious metals fetching premiums well over spot price and Scotia Bank in the metals business since 1684 closes and RippleNet central bank digital currency in play. Should I even mention wheat planting in the USA at 1909 levels?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvOGAb40cMw


How Many Collapses Can Be on The Horizon (971)
9,087 views
•May 1, 2020

Run time is 10:04
 
Last edited:

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Wow! Thanks, TxGal, for taking the time to dig up and post all the background info for this new version of the GSM thread.

The meat shortage problem sure doesn't look like it's going to go away anytime soon, does it?
 

TxGal

Day by day
Wow! Thanks, TxGal, for taking the time to dig up and post all the background info for this new version of the GSM thread.

The meat shortage problem sure doesn't look like it's going to go away anytime soon, does it?
You're welcome! It's just a start, there's a lot out there, but it'll get us going.

Oh gosh, it really isn't. There's another few tweets on his twitter feed relative to this....I'm posting while eating breakfast, and just about choked on my food reading them! This is one article there was a tweet about:


Butterball ends contracts with 20 Missouri turkey growers

April 28, 2020 By Julie Harker Filed Under: Missouri, News


Butterball is ending its contracts with 20 central Missouri turkey growers. A statement from the company says their decision is a reflection of consumer trends that occurred before the COVID-19 crisis.

Butterball says international demand has weakened as has the value of commodity turkey meat.

The company says the affected turkey growers in Osage County, Missouri will remain on contract for 90 more days.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Sooo, while the article about turkey growers isn't technically GSM material (although I'm sure on the old thread there was data showing increased pandemics/illness during solar minimums), throw in the possibility of a freeze in the midwest damaging grain crops per the tweet above. And, all the pics in the news of vegetables been plowed under/destroyed, and all the beef, hogs, and chickens being euthanized before processing because of lack of demand. We could all be in a world of hurt. I've gotta get outside and work on the garden :-)

View: https://twitter.com/fama_il/status/1255124799791288322
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Let me 'splain it to you. There were 200 pages to that thread. Neither myself nor any other staff member was going to spin through 200 pages of 40 posts per page and edit out von Koehler's posts. That's just not realistic. We all have lives and things to do other than this forum.

The thread owner has certain rights regarding what happens to "their" thread. He whined about it and I really had to take action. He didn't want others using "his" posts. In other words, he was acting like a petulant child. However, he's within his rights to request removal.
IIRC he was also PO'd because it got moved to the Earth Changes forum which he viewed as "woo".
 

TxGal

Day by day

Calgary – Longest longest streak of below <20C since 1932-33

May 2, 2020 by Robert

Longest run in more than 80 years.

Yesterday was #Calgary‘s 216th consecutive day with maximum temperature <20°C which makes this the longest run in more than 80 years, since May 12th, 1933. #YycWx

.

View: https://twitter.com/YYC_Weather/status/1254553599876661250


Thanks to Lance Appleby for this link
 
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