WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Taiwan Won’t Get US F-16s Until 2024 Thanks to Problems Beyond Covid​



(Bloomberg) -- Delivery of Taiwan’s first new F-16 fighters built by Lockheed Martin Corp. has been delayed by problems deeper than the Covid-related supply chain issues cited previously, according to the US Air Force.
“Complex developmental challenges” have been encountered, and the US government, Taiwan and Lockheed “are actively working to mitigate these delays,” according to an Air Force statement flagging the previously undisclosed technical issue without elaboration. “We are committed to do everything we can to find solutions to deliver these aircraft, fully capable, to our partners as soon as possible.”

The F-16 has been in service since 1979, and Taiwan already has older models. The latest “Block 70” fighters are equipped with a “fire control radar” made by Northrop Grumman Corp. that’s designed to allow the firing of precision-guided munitions from greater distances. The first Block 70 flew in January, and Bahrain, another Block 70 customer, has taken delivery of its first jet.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the order is being “actively handled by the US to help with shipment and delivery schedule.” The delivery of all 66 planes will still be completed by 2026 as planned, it said.
Some of the new Block 70 fighters “have been flying for five months, and Bahrain’s aircraft have rolled off the line and have begun deliveries, so there’s probably a Taiwan-specific equipment issue at work here,” said Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an aviation consultant group.
The Air Force and Lockheed declined to say whether the “development challenges” are also affecting the newest F-16s being sold to Bahrain, Jordan, Slovakia, Morrocco and Bulgaria.

Taiwan Backlog​

US lawmakers have criticized a potential $19 billion backlog of US military contracts for Taiwan, a sensitive matter as tensions grow over the possibility that China may eventually use its military to enforce its claim to the self-ruled island.
Read more: Top Taiwan Lawmaker Visits US Capitol to Meet China Panel

But Undersecretary of Defense William LaPlante told an industry conference in March that a large part of the backlog “is the production line of the F-16,” not because it’s slow but because prior orders must be filled.
The new F-16s are being assembled at Lockheed’s Greenville, South Carolina, facility.
Informed of the technical issue, senior State Department and Pentagon officials “immediately reached out to Lockheed Martin” and traveled to the Greenville site “to meet directly with company executives to discuss this problem,” the Air Force said.
Lockheed spokeswoman Liz Lutz said in a statement that the company is working “closely with the US government to address challenges in support of US security objectives.”
--With assistance from Cindy Wang.

This could push Taiwan to ready “special weapons” for use against Communist China, if no alternative is available. If Taiwan develops a mindset akin to Israel’s Samson Option, things could go sideways, very quickly. As has been discussed here, many times, Taiwan probably has turnkey systems, where nuclear weapon can rapidly be assembled, and sent on to prepared sites for utilization. They’ve been threatened so many times, the ability to resist may well be moot. Don’t stand too close, and Watch for the Flash!

OA
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
This could push Taiwan to ready “special weapons” for use against Communist China, if no alternative is available. If Taiwan develops a mindset akin to Israel’s Samson Option, things could go sideways, very quickly. As has been discussed here, many times, Taiwan probably has turnkey systems, where nuclear weapon can rapidly be assembled, and sent on to prepared sites for utilization. They’ve been threatened so many times, the ability to resist may well be moot. Don’t stand too close, and Watch for the Flash!

OA

At a minimum the only alternative Taiwan has to bridge this gate would be their domestic or other sourcing of LACMs and LRBMs/IRBMs to make up the difference in at least "Day 1" throw weight. Now whether the "filling" on those are "canned sunshine" or fuel air/CBUs would in large part depend upon availability and delivery times to the end user.

Imagine a thousand or so extended range clones of the Iranian Shahed-136 backstopped with something in the Tomahawk class, perhaps a hundred or so "ready rounds" with fifty or so weapons in the same class as the Pershing 2 to round it all out.
 

jward

passin' thru

U.S. has credible deterrence against N. Korea, seeks to institutionalize trilateral cooperation with S. Korea, Japan: officials | Yonhap News Agency​


변덕근



By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, May 25 (Yonhap) -- The United States maintains ready and capable deterrence against North Korea's evolving threats together with its key allies South Korea and Japan, ranking U.S. officials said Thursday.
They also said the U.S. seeks to institutionalize trilateral defense cooperation between the three countries.

"We share the widespread concern about North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, certainly a concern shared by our allies in the region, notably Japan and the ROK," Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, said during a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
"I think what we do in response is to ensure that we, alongside our allies, are maintaining combat credible deterrence," he added, noting that North Korea has fired some 80 ballistic missiles since the start of last year.
ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.

Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, is seen speaking during a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, on May 25, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
Mohandas noted that U.S. deterrence against North Korean threats begins with its conventional capabilities, including some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, and that it is backed by Washington's ironclad commitment to providing extended deterrence to Seoul.
Extended deterrence refers to U.S. commitment to help defense its ally, using all its military capabilities, including nuclear.

President Joe Biden agreed to bolster U.S. commitment to extended deterrence last month when he and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol signed a bilateral agreement, dubbed the Washington Declaration, that calls for increased deployment and visibility of U.S. strategic assets to and around the Korean Peninsula.
"We want to make clear, in as strong as possible terms, that our extended deterrence commitment to the ROK is ironclad, is backed by the full range of our capabilities, including conventional capabilities and nuclear capabilities," said Mohandas.

Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, insisted that the Washington Declaration has also reaffirmed South Korea's confidence in U.S. extended deterrence.
The Pentagon officials emphasized the importance of U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral cooperation, highlighting the recent thaw in the Seoul-Tokyo relations that they said was possible due to the courage and bravery of the South Korean president and his Japanese counterpart.

"I think the flipside of that is that it is actually in our interest, in all three countries' interest to seek to protect military and defense cooperation from the vicissitudes of politics, and I think the way we do that is by trying to do everything we can to institutionalize trilateral cooperation going forward," Mohandas told the seminar.
Ratner said the U.S. is doing everything it can to institutionalize U.S. network of alliances and partnerships in the region to be "more durable."

 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
At a minimum the only alternative Taiwan has to bridge this gate would be their domestic or other sourcing of LACMs and LRBMs/IRBMs to make up the difference in at least "Day 1" throw weight. Now whether the "filling" on those are "canned sunshine" or fuel air/CBUs would in large part depend upon availability and delivery times to the end user.

Imagine a thousand or so extended range clones of the Iranian Shahed-136 backstopped with something in the Tomahawk class, perhaps a hundred or so "ready rounds" with fifty or so weapons in the same class as the Pershing 2 to round it all out.

Very interesting. Likewise, man portable “devices” that might be infiltrated. Too, there are the other, unthinkable, unmentionable avenues. Of course, taking out the Three Gorges Dam, as well as others, would crimp their style…

OA
 

jward

passin' thru
You're just a ray o' sunshine tonight --- time fer an ice cream & pie run??
:: makes the alarmed look n checks the emotional oil stick ::

At a minimum the only alternative Taiwan has to bridge this gate would be their domestic or other sourcing of LACMs and LRBMs/IRBMs to make up the difference in at least "Day 1" throw weight. Now whether the "filling" on those are "canned sunshine" or fuel air/CBUs would in large part depend upon availability and delivery times to the end user.

Imagine a thousand or so extended range clones of the Iranian Shahed-136 backstopped with something in the Tomahawk class, perhaps a hundred or so "ready rounds" with fifty or so weapons in the same class as the Pershing 2 to round it all out.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Very interesting. Likewise, man portable “devices” that might be infiltrated. Too, there are the other, unthinkabkable, unmentionable avenues. Of course taking out the Three Gorges Dam, as well as others, would crimp their style

OA
taking out the Three Gorges Dam, as well as others, would crimp their style… that might be a red line for China to use nukes.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
I'd been getting the impression Taiwan was a wee bit slow in preparing themselves for what appears the inevitable.
..I dunno. ;x
Yes, Taiwan should have matched a China military build-up move with one of its own. Getting behind on the curve, is not the place to be. Ask Britain in 1939.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

A Chinese Fifth Column in the United States?​

Scott Powell | May 15, 2023
Townhall.com.

When the winds of war are blowing as they are now, it is essential to recognize new developments and extraordinary activities by the enemy.

Since Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021, most Americans have been dumbfounded by his open border policy and its administration by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who has continued to gaslight Americans with the claim right up to the present that, “the southern border is secure.” In fact, the records show anything but a secure border. In just 28 months since Biden’s inauguration, over 6 million illegal aliens have entered the United States—including criminals, terrorists, and human, child, sex and lethal drug trafficking cartels—all of whom put enormous burden on American schools, health care facilities and law enforcement.

And now that Biden has allowed Title 42 to expire, with record numbers of immigrants having gathered at the southern border to enter the U.S., many now recognize that this chaos may be intentional Biden administration policy.

Some have observed the parallels between the Biden administration’s priorities and the Cloward-Piven neo-Marxist theory that was conceived and developed at Columbia by left-wing political activist sociology professors—the husband-and-wife team of Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven. That theory became an eight-step plan designed to overload the U.S. public welfare system to bring about a crisis. That plan, now updated with a mass replacement migration component, could be called Cloward-Piven 2.0, and it has even greater potential to bring the United States into collapse, chaos, and bankruptcy by expanding lawlessness in addition to exploding the rolls of poor immigrants who become dependent on a variety of social welfare programs—including food stamps, health care and more.

The strategy is quite simple—call it “fundamental transformation,” which is to radically increase the costs and national debt from an enlarged social welfare and law enforcement infrastructure driven by the surge of millions of poor new immigrants—many from various failed states. Since these immigrant arrivals include criminals such as cartel members involved in human, sex and drug trafficking and others carrying infectious diseases, there are obviously large law enforcement costs in addition to the increased health and welfare expenditures. Unchecked, the overall cost becomes so great that it can bring down the targeted host country—even a rich country like the United States.

But it gets worse.​


There are new developments at the southern border that reflect the Biden national security team being not only weak, but also compromised and controlled like Joe Biden, who has received tens of millions of dollars through Biden family shell companies and a labyrinth of LLCs from various Chinese entities tied to the Communist Party of China (CCP).

U.S. border authorities have recently reported a 900% increase in Chinese males coming across the border in the last year, at a time when multiple threat indicators are rising, such as intense military overflights of Taiwanese airspace and war games around the island country.

The entry of Chinese in the mix of people seeking entry to the U.S. is a new red flag for it is very difficult for Chinese to get authorization to leave China. It’s almost certain that the CCP has allowed and arranged for select Chinese to travel to Central America and Mexico with plans and maps for them to make their way up to and get over the southern border. And the purpose could be to establish a Chinese “Fifth Column” presence in the United States.

The CCP and its military have already been infiltrating Taiwan to act as “Fifth Column” units to undertake cyberattacks and place false information on social media and to undermine Taiwan’s state telecommunications infrastructure. Whether or not the PRC invades Taiwan, it appears that the CCP and PRC will continue to attempt to create chaos in Taiwan through a range of protracted operations that may include targeted military strikes and continuous unrestricted warfare operations. The goal is to wear down and demoralize the Taiwanese with an end game of compelling the Taiwanese government to accede to PRC demands, similar to what happened with the PRC takeover of Hong Kong.

So, the unprecedented surge of male Chinese immigrants at the southern border is another wakeup call that the CCP/PRC move on Taiwan may happen sooner than anticipated.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

A Chinese Fifth Column in the United States?​

Scott Powell | May 15, 2023
Townhall.com.

When the winds of war are blowing as they are now, it is essential to recognize new developments and extraordinary activities by the enemy.

Since Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021, most Americans have been dumbfounded by his open border policy and its administration by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who has continued to gaslight Americans with the claim right up to the present that, “the southern border is secure.” In fact, the records show anything but a secure border. In just 28 months since Biden’s inauguration, over 6 million illegal aliens have entered the United States—including criminals, terrorists, and human, child, sex and lethal drug trafficking cartels—all of whom put enormous burden on American schools, health care facilities and law enforcement.

And now that Biden has allowed Title 42 to expire, with record numbers of immigrants having gathered at the southern border to enter the U.S., many now recognize that this chaos may be intentional Biden administration policy.

Some have observed the parallels between the Biden administration’s priorities and the Cloward-Piven neo-Marxist theory that was conceived and developed at Columbia by left-wing political activist sociology professors—the husband-and-wife team of Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven. That theory became an eight-step plan designed to overload the U.S. public welfare system to bring about a crisis. That plan, now updated with a mass replacement migration component, could be called Cloward-Piven 2.0, and it has even greater potential to bring the United States into collapse, chaos, and bankruptcy by expanding lawlessness in addition to exploding the rolls of poor immigrants who become dependent on a variety of social welfare programs—including food stamps, health care and more.

The strategy is quite simple—call it “fundamental transformation,” which is to radically increase the costs and national debt from an enlarged social welfare and law enforcement infrastructure driven by the surge of millions of poor new immigrants—many from various failed states. Since these immigrant arrivals include criminals such as cartel members involved in human, sex and drug trafficking and others carrying infectious diseases, there are obviously large law enforcement costs in addition to the increased health and welfare expenditures. Unchecked, the overall cost becomes so great that it can bring down the targeted host country—even a rich country like the United States.

But it gets worse.​


There are new developments at the southern border that reflect the Biden national security team being not only weak, but also compromised and controlled like Joe Biden, who has received tens of millions of dollars through Biden family shell companies and a labyrinth of LLCs from various Chinese entities tied to the Communist Party of China (CCP).

U.S. border authorities have recently reported a 900% increase in Chinese males coming across the border in the last year, at a time when multiple threat indicators are rising, such as intense military overflights of Taiwanese airspace and war games around the island country.

The entry of Chinese in the mix of people seeking entry to the U.S. is a new red flag for it is very difficult for Chinese to get authorization to leave China. It’s almost certain that the CCP has allowed and arranged for select Chinese to travel to Central America and Mexico with plans and maps for them to make their way up to and get over the southern border. And the purpose could be to establish a Chinese “Fifth Column” presence in the United States.

The CCP and its military have already been infiltrating Taiwan to act as “Fifth Column” units to undertake cyberattacks and place false information on social media and to undermine Taiwan’s state telecommunications infrastructure.
Whether or not the PRC invades Taiwan, it appears that the CCP and PRC will continue to attempt to create chaos in Taiwan through a range of protracted operations that may include targeted military strikes and continuous unrestricted warfare operations. The goal is to wear down and demoralize the Taiwanese with an end game of compelling the Taiwanese government to accede to PRC demands, similar to what happened with the PRC takeover of Hong Kong.

So, the unprecedented surge of male Chinese immigrants at the southern border is another wakeup call that the CCP/PRC move on Taiwan may happen sooner than anticipated.


So, the unprecedented surge of male Chinese immigrants at the southern border is another wakeup call that the CCP/PRC move on Taiwan may happen sooner than anticipated. That is my thinking as well.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummmm.........

Posted for fair use.....

Foreign ministry dispels reports of Taiwan joining US nuclear umbrella​

Foreign minister nevertheless confirms there have been talks about nuclear umbrella​

524 Comments

By Kelvin Chen, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/27 15:33

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on Friday (May 26) hit back at media reports distorting Foreign Minister Joseph Wu’s (吳釗燮) statements about Taiwan and the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

On May 22, Wu confirmed there had been talks about whether the U.S. would include Taiwan under its nuclear umbrella, but did not go into further detail. The nuclear umbrella is a promise by a nuclear weapons state to provide security for a non-nuclear weapons state.

MOFA accused some media outlets of “misinterpreting the original intent and deliberately creating an impression of discord among government officials.”

“Their attempts to sow discord and undermine public confidence in the government from within are deeply regrettable,” it added.

The ministry said some media outlets have long disseminated misinformation without verification, intentionally distorting the public statements of Taiwanese and American security officials, and spreading false information. They consider U.S. assistance in strengthening Taiwan's self-defense capabilities as a provocation and view China's threats to Taiwan from Beijing’s perspective as a given, it said.

This cherry-picking of statements and malicious misinterpretation deliberately confuses public perception, damages Taiwan-U.S. relations and undermines the determination of the Taiwanese in their external affairs, MOFA said. It urged the public to put an effort into discerning right from wrong in media reports.

Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and NATO countries all fall under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. During the Cold War, Taiwan secretly launched its own research program to develop its own nuclear weapons. However, due to U.S. pressure, it ultimately halted all efforts.

Institute for National Defense and Security Research Director Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) recently said that Taiwan's policy is to refrain from developing weapons of mass destruction or nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. However, if partner countries are willing to include Taiwan under a nuclear umbrella, it would serve as an extended form of deterrence, he said, adding that it would also greatly boost Taiwan's security and provide additional protection.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

US may provide Taiwan with surplus weapons amid rush to bolster defense​

Defense expert believes Taiwan could benefit from Excess Defense Articles program​

1487 Comments

By Kelvin Chen, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/27 10:34

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The U.S. could supply Taiwan with Excess Defense Articles (EDA), Institute for National Defense and Security Research Director Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said.

Through the EDA program, surplus weapons and equipment are transferred to ally nations in need of them. The transfers are carried out in line with the Foreign Assistance Act and the Arms Export Control Act, Su said.

Commenting on the possibility of the U.S. military establishing a regional contingency stockpile in Taiwan, Su said U.S. military aid and a contingency stockpile are different concepts. Military aid is a gift, whereas a stockpile consists of equipment owned by the U.S. military stored in Taiwan, he explained.

A contingency stockpile would indicate a significant increase in the possibility of U.S. military cooperation in defending Taiwan, he said.

On May 24, a batch of U.S.-made Stinger missiles and relevant equipment arrived in Taiwan.

The shipment, made possible by the use of the Presidential Drawdown Authority, is valued at US$500 million (NT$15.3 billion), Liberty Times reported. This tool allows weapons deliveries to be expedited to foreign countries and international organizations in response to “unforeseen emergencies,” according to the U.S. State Department.

Taiwan has approximately 1,800 Stinger missiles, including ground-to-air, air-to-air, and dual-mounted systems, CNA cited him saying. They provide low-altitude air defense, are suitable for individual operations, and are highly mobile, he added.

Su said the missiles can be deployed in key strategic areas such as airports, radar stations, or near critical facilities to prevent low-altitude aircraft attacks by enemy forces. They can also be deployed in the vicinity of drop zones and in Hualien to prevent enemy helicopter assaults and further strengthen Taiwan's counter-assault capabilities, he said.

There has been a large push in U.S. Congress to provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs to defend itself against a Chinese invasion. There are growing concerns an attack could happen in 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Taiwan risks losing sovereignty if it accepts '1992 consensus'​

Vice President Lai Ching-te says true peace must be acquired through Taiwan's own volition​

1202 Comments

By Kelvin Chen, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/27 16:56

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan would lose its sovereignty if it accepts the so-called “1992 consensus,” Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) said on Saturday (May 27).

Speaking at an event in Yulin, Lai said signing a peace agreement with China would not bring genuine peace — as shown by Hong Kong and Tibet, CNA reported. Peace cannot be achieved through mere rhetoric, he said; a country must rely on its own strength.

Lai pointed out that there are no winners in war. Under the leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Taiwan has constantly enhanced its strength while standing for democracy.

People should believe in Taiwan and stand together with the international democratic community, moving forward on the path of democracy, he said.

Lai Ching-te said Taiwan is like a mother and the 23 million Taiwanese are all "sweet potato children" (a term used to refer to Taiwanese). Lai said he is a sweet potato child, just like everyone else.

Lai was chosen as the Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate for next year’s general election last month. He is running against New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜), the Kuomintang’s selected candidate, and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), the Taiwan People’s Party candidate.

Earlier in May, Lai said there is no need to publicly declare Taiwan's independence, as he believes the concept is implicit since Taiwan is not part of the People's Republic of China. He said a formal declaration of Taiwan independence could cause more cross-strait tension and vowed not to do so if elected president.
 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan Says It's In Talks On Being Brought Under US Nuclear Umbrella​


by Tyler Durden



Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
Taiwan’s foreign minister said last week that the US and Taiwan are in talks on the possibility of the island being brought under Washington’s nuclear umbrella, a step that would make a catastrophic war between the US and China much more likely.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu made the comments before Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan. Wu declined to detail the talks when pressed if Taiwan had asked the US to bring the island into its nuclear umbrella.
US military file image
"Regarding the discussion of this issue with the United States, it is not suitable for me to make it public here," Wu said, according to The South China Morning Post.
Many of the US’s allies are considered to be under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella, including Japan, South Korea, and every member of NATO.
Giving such a guarantee to Taiwan would mean the US could use nuclear weapons if China invades the island or if war breaks out by other means. According to the SCMP report:
As Washington and Beijing ramp up their military signaling on Taiwan, the self-ruled island has started to discuss what was once unthinkable – to come under the US nuclear umbrella that has successfully protected Japan, South Korea and Australia for decades.
The debate was set off after Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu suggested on Monday that the island had been in talks with the United States on the nuclear umbrella issue.
Such a guarantee is unlikely to happen in the near term as it would require a radical change to US policy. While President Biden has vowed to send troops to intervene if China attacks Taiwan, the official policy on how the US would react to a Chinese invasion is still ambiguous.
But the fact that the idea is being discussed will be viewed as a major provocation in Beijing. China has a no-first-use policy for its nuclear arsenal, but US policy leaves open the option to use nukes in response to a conventional attack.
 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan rushes to prevent China from cutting off internet and phones​


Cindy Wang


Buffeted by earthquakes and the potential of conflict with China, Taiwan’s leaders want to accelerate plans to make the island more resilient to communications breakdowns and direct attacks on its digital infrastructure.
It could be an impossible task.
Audrey Tang, who heads Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs, says she wants the island’s $740 billion economy to be able to handle the possible collapse of all its communications in the event of an emergency by the end of next year.
The threat isn’t theoretical: Taiwan’s Matsu Islands found themselves digitally adrift after two of their submarine internet cables were severed by boats flying Chinese flags in February. Before that, a 2006 earthquake cut eight subsea cables around Taiwan, took weeks to repair and disrupted the internet, banking and cross-border trading across much of Asia. Both events were harsh reminders of what could happen in a conflict or natural disaster.

“The main lesson we learned is psychological,” Tang said in a May 17 interview. “How to manage the expectation on reduced bandwidth, how to prioritize the bandwidth use, which uses are OK to have a slightly higher latency, and so on.”
Tang says the worst-case scenario for Taiwan would be the destruction of the island’s physical points of communication: its three major telecommunications providers as well as their power supplies.
“The enemy knows” where the island’s key facilities are because the information is public, Tang said. “So we can assume that they’re going to be disrupted, jammed or destroyed in a huge earthquake.”
Tang mentions “earthquakes” a lot. Besides referring to natural disasters — Taiwan sits in the tectonically active region known as the ‘ring of fire’ — it’s also a euphemism for incidents related to tensions with China, including cyber attacks.
“It’s a very apt analogy because an earthquake is not going to give you a lot of warnings,” Tang, 42, said.
China views Taiwan as part of its territory and vows to bring it under its control one day, by force if necessary. The government of President Tsai Ing-wen rejects Beijing’s claim, asserting the island is an already de facto independent nation. And with Taiwan holding presidential elections in early 2024, China is expected to ramp up efforts to influence the vote.

But building up the digital resilience Tang wants by late 2024 is a tough target.
The island’s disaster response plan calls for the establishment of 700 satellite receivers placed all over Taiwan. Some of the receivers would be fixed, others mobile, and they would have to be configured to receive communications from multiple constellations of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Medium Earth Orbit.
To get there, the government opened bids for research institutes to take part in a proof-of-concept round of testing and verification. So far, at least three have signed up, Tang said. The winner will begin work with satellite providers. Among the providers, French-Luxembourg company SES Global now has two receivers in Taiwan.

A firefighter runs during the annual Minan civilian defense drill, which this year focuses on the response from various agencies and volunteer groups if under attack by China, in front of Taipei City hall on May 4. | REUTERS
Tang said OneWeb, a satellite provider with investors including the U.K. government, Indian conglomerate Bharti Global and Softbank Group, has signaled its interest, as has Project Kuiper, an initiative from Amazon.com to create a constellation of over 3,000 LEO satellites. But neither of those is currently available.
Only Starlink Inc.’s SpaceX satellite constellation has the capability to provide live coverage right now. Tang describes Starlink as a potential provider, but adds that she’s after more than one participant in order “to ensure that when there’s adversity, multiple constellations will have to be destroyed or disrupted to deny us communication” with the outside world.

That means for now, Taiwan’s satellite capacity pales in comparison to the coverage it currently gets from its 14 undersea cables, says Kenny Huang, chairman and chief executive officer at the Taiwan Network Information Center, a nonprofit partially owned by Taiwan’s government.
Current satellite capacity “only adds up to about 0.01% of the transmission capacity of the undersea cables,” Huang said. “It’s almost impossible to use those satellites as back up or to enhance communication resilience.”
The undersea cables are highly vulnerable, however. Huang added that the plan to have 700 receivers won’t be big enough to cover the communication needs of the island’s 23 million people.
Tang called the 700 receivers she’s initially aiming for a minimum to sustain essential communication. The government has earmarked 550 million New Taiwan dollars ($18 million) in 2023-2024 to subsidize the testing and verification of the disaster response program.

She added that the self-governing island has taken lessons from the conflict in Ukraine, which has confronted repeated cyberattacks by Russia on its infrastructure and population. But Ukraine has access to the Starlink system, which has helped keep communications up and running since the war began.
It’s not clear if that is a realistic option for Taiwan. There are questions about whether SpaceX owner Elon Musk, whose Tesla has significant investments in China, would want the geopolitical headache of aiding Taiwan. Musk suggested last year in comments to the Financial Times that Taiwan should agree to become a special administrative zone of China, angering Taiwanese officials and winning praise from Beijing.

Referring to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s daily video briefings throughout the war, Tang said it’s critical for the government to be able to communicate to its people as well as the outside world.
That means local video calls should be handled domestically, she said. Yet right now, Zoom sessions are initially routed overseas before a local connection is made. Tang added that Alphabet’s Google Meet has entirely domestic routing, ensuring it will still be operational should Taiwan’s undersea cables get cut.
Asked about this part of the government’s plan, Zoom Video Communications and Google didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Microsoft declined to comment.

Underscoring her sense of urgency, Tang said the island’s digital infrastructure is already under siege by millions of largely automated attacks by suspected Chinese-affiliated actors. That will only get worse in the case of a future earthquake or other emergency, Tang said.
“We’re going to see a lot of live reports from Taiwan that are completely synthetic,” she says, referring to “deepfake” videos and other disinformation efforts. “That is what we’re preparing ourselves for by the end of next year.”

 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Invading Taiwan will cost China 'blood and treasure': US commander​

Admiral says US military must be 'prepared to fight and win' war with China over Taiwan​

1597

By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/30 16:09

1685463437893.png
Adm. John C. Aquilino. (YouTube, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations screenshot)
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The commander of the U.S. military in the Pacific on May 23 warned Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) that an invasion of Taiwan would be costly to China in terms of "blood and treasure."
U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John C. Aquilino was the keynote speaker for the Annual Members Program for the National Committee on United States–China Relations. During a Q&A session, National Committee President Stephen Orlins asked Aquilino to discuss lessons from the Ukraine war for Taiwan and whether it had changed the U.S. military's calculus for the risk of conflict in the strait.
Aquilino said that there are many lessons that can be learned from Russia's "illegal and illegitimate unprovoked attack on Ukraine." The admiral argued that the world was woken up by the invasion and the people in Taiwan "certainly have a new view."
He said that it should be concerning that the invasion demonstrates that any single leader from an authoritarian nation can take such aggressive actions without the consideration of others. Among the many lessons, Aquilino said Xi should learn that, "There is no such thing as a short war."
Aquilino said that Xi must understand that if he chooses to invade Taiwan, it would be "drastically devastating to his people in the form of blood and treasure." Because the world is so interwoven that an attack on Taiwan would also drastically upset the rest of the global economy, said Aquilino.
He stressed that the bottom line must be clear that the "investment of blood and treasure" required to achieve Xi's objectives, needs to be a "very hard decision." Aquilino added Xi must learn that the global community can be quickly rallied "when they disagree with actions taken in that fashion."
The commander said that any aggressor would face global condemnation, as is the case with Russian President Vladimir Putin presently. Aquilino emphasized that Xi would not just face military retaliation, but also economic and diplomatic responses, among other measures.
Aquilino argued that Xi keeps all of these lessons in mind and concluded that such repercussions are not in anyone's interest, and therefore he has continued to focus his efforts on maintaining peace. "My efforts are 100% to prevent conflict," said the admiral.
In response to a question about whether China will invade Taiwan in 2027, Aquilino said the context of that previous statement by former chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, was that Xi had ordered his forces to be prepared to invade by 2027 "should he choose the desire to execute by force" the annexation of Taiwan.
Aquilino said he refuses to speculate on when and if such an invasion would occur, but he said that he has been tasked with two missions: preventing this war from occurring and "if I fail at Mission One to be prepared to fight and win." He explained that regardless of when such a conflict breaks out, the U.S. armed forces will be "manned, trained, equipped, postured, and ready to execute both of those missions." Invading Taiwan will cost China 'blood and treasure': US commander | Taiwan News | 2023-05-30 16:09:00
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Invading Taiwan will cost China 'blood and treasure': US commander​

Admiral says US military must be 'prepared to fight and win' war with China over Taiwan​

1597

By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/30 16:09

View attachment 415999
Adm. John C. Aquilino. (YouTube, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations screenshot)
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The commander of the U.S. military in the Pacific on May 23 warned Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) that an invasion of Taiwan would be costly to China in terms of "blood and treasure."
U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John C. Aquilino was the keynote speaker for the Annual Members Program for the National Committee on United States–China Relations. During a Q&A session, National Committee President Stephen Orlins asked Aquilino to discuss lessons from the Ukraine war for Taiwan and whether it had changed the U.S. military's calculus for the risk of conflict in the strait.
Aquilino said that there are many lessons that can be learned from Russia's "illegal and illegitimate unprovoked attack on Ukraine." The admiral argued that the world was woken up by the invasion and the people in Taiwan "certainly have a new view."
He said that it should be concerning that the invasion demonstrates that any single leader from an authoritarian nation can take such aggressive actions without the consideration of others. Among the many lessons, Aquilino said Xi should learn that, "There is no such thing as a short war."
Aquilino said that Xi must understand that if he chooses to invade Taiwan, it would be "drastically devastating to his people in the form of blood and treasure." Because the world is so interwoven that an attack on Taiwan would also drastically upset the rest of the global economy, said Aquilino.
He stressed that the bottom line must be clear that the "investment of blood and treasure" required to achieve Xi's objectives, needs to be a "very hard decision." Aquilino added Xi must learn that the global community can be quickly rallied "when they disagree with actions taken in that fashion."
The commander said that any aggressor would face global condemnation, as is the case with Russian President Vladimir Putin presently. Aquilino emphasized that Xi would not just face military retaliation, but also economic and diplomatic responses, among other measures.
Aquilino argued that Xi keeps all of these lessons in mind and concluded that such repercussions are not in anyone's interest, and therefore he has continued to focus his efforts on maintaining peace. "My efforts are 100% to prevent conflict," said the admiral.
In response to a question about whether China will invade Taiwan in 2027, Aquilino said the context of that previous statement by former chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, was that Xi had ordered his forces to be prepared to invade by 2027 "should he choose the desire to execute by force" the annexation of Taiwan.
Aquilino said he refuses to speculate on when and if such an invasion would occur, but he said that he has been tasked with two missions: preventing this war from occurring and "if I fail at Mission One to be prepared to fight and win." He explained that regardless of when such a conflict breaks out, the U.S. armed forces will be "manned, trained, equipped, postured, and ready to execute both of those missions." Invading Taiwan will cost China 'blood and treasure': US commander | Taiwan News | 2023-05-30 16:09:00

Admiral says US military must be 'prepared to fight and win' war with China over Taiwan, not with Joe Biden.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China defends buzzing American warship in Taiwan Strait, accuses US of provoking Beijing​

China’s defense minister has defended sailing a warship across the path of an American destroyer and Canadian frigate transiting the Taiwan Strait, telling a gathering of some of the world’s top defense officials in Singapore that such so-called “freed...

By DAVID RISING Associated Press
June 3, 2023, 10:46 PM

Asia Defense

Germany's Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius looks on during the last day of the 20th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's annual defense and security forum, in Singapore, Sunday, June 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)

SINGAPORE -- China's defense minister defended sailing a warship across the path of an American destroyer and Canadian frigate transiting the Taiwan Strait, telling a gathering of some of the world's top defense officials in Singapore on Sunday that such so-called “freedom of navigation” patrols are a provocation to China.

In his first international public address since becoming defense minister in March, Gen. Li Shangfu told the Shangri-La Dialogue that China doesn't have any problems with “innocent passage” but that “we must prevent attempts that try to use those freedom of navigation (patrols), that innocent passage, to exercise hegemony of navigation.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the same forum Saturday that Washington would not “flinch in the face of bullying or coercion” from China and would continue regularly sailing through and flying over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to emphasize they are international waters, countering Beijing's sweeping territorial claims.

That same day, as a U.S. guided-missile destroyer and a Canadian frigate were intercepted by a Chinese warship as they transited the strait between the self-governed island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, and mainland China. The Chinese vessel overtook the American ship and then veered across its bow at a distance of 150 yards (about 140 meters) in an “unsafe manner," according to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

Additionally, the U.S. has said a Chinese J-16 fighter jet late last month “performed an unnecessarily aggressive maneuver” while intercepting a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea, flying directly in front of the plane's nose.

Those and previous incidents have raised concerns of a possible accident occurring that could lead to an escalation between the two nations at a time when tensions are already high.

Li suggested the U.S. and its allies had created the danger, and should instead should focus on taking “good care of your own territorial airspace and waters.”

“The best way is for the countries, especially the naval vessels and fighter jets of countries, not to do closing actions around other countries' territories,” he said through an interpreter. “What’s the point of going there? In China we always say, ‘Mind your own business.’”

In a wide-ranging speech, Li reiterated many of Beijing’s well-known positions, including its claim on Taiwan, calling it “the core of our core interests.”

He accused the U.S. and others of “meddling in China’s internal affairs” by providing Taiwan with defense support and training, and conducting high-level diplomatic visits.

“China stays committed to the path of peaceful development, but we will never hesitate to defend our legitimate rights and interests, let alone sacrifice the nation’s core interests,” he said.

“As the lyrics of a well-known Chinese song go: ‘When friends visit us, we welcome them with fine wine. When jackals or wolves come, we will face them with shotguns.’”

In his speech the previous day, Austin broadly outlined the U.S. vision for a “free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific within a world of rules and rights.”

In the pursuit of such, Austin said the U.S. was stepping up planning, coordination and training with “friends from the East China Sea to the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean” with shared goals “to deter aggression and to deepen the rules and norms that promote prosperity and prevent conflict.”

Li scoffed at the notion, saying “some country takes a selective approach to rules and international laws.”

“It likes forcing its own rules on others,” he said. “Its so-called ‘rules-based international order’ never tells you what the rules are and who made these rules.”

By contrast, he said, “we practice multilateralism and pursue win-win cooperation."

Li is under American sanctions that are part of a broad package of measures against Russia — but predate its invasion of Ukraine — that were imposed in 2018 over Li’s involvement in China’s purchase of combat aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles from Moscow.

The sanctions, which broadly prevent Li from doing business in the United States, do not prevent him from holding official talks, American defense officials have said.

Still, he refused Austin’s invitation to talk on the sidelines of the conference, though the two did shake hands before sitting down at opposite sides of the same table together as the forum opened Friday.

Austin said that was not enough.

“A cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for a substantive engagement,” Austin said.

The U.S. has noted that since 2021 — well before Li became defense minister — China has declined or failed to respond to more than a dozen requests from the U.S. Defense Department to talk with senior leaders, as well as multiple requests for standing dialogues and working-level engagements.

Li said that “China is open to communications between our two countries and also between our two militaries," but without mentioning the sanctions, said exchanges had to be “based on mutual respect.”

“That is a very fundamental principle,” he said. “If we do not even have mutual respect, than our communications will not be productive.”

He said that he recognized that any “severe conflict or confrontation between China and the U.S. will be an unbearable disaster for the world,” and that the two countries need to find ways to improve relations, saying they were “at a record low.”

“History has proven time and again that both China and the United States will benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation," he said.

"China seeks to develop a new type of major-country relationship with the United States. As for the U.S. side, it needs to act with sincerity, match its words with deeds, and take concrete actions together with China to stabilize the relations and prevent further deterioration,” Li said.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummmm.....The problem is Xi and the CCP have to believe we'll follow through.....

Posted for fair use.....

A STRAIT TOO FAR: HOW A DELIBERATE CAMPAIGNING APPROACH IN THE PACIFIC CAN MAKE BEIJING THINK TWICE​

BENJAMIN VAN HORRICK
JUNE 5, 2023
COMMENTARY

On March 1, Deputy Secretary of Defense Dr. Kathleen Hicks tweeted a clear message to the People’s Republic of China — don’t press your luck and attempt to cross the Taiwan Strait. The tweet’s timing was likely no accident. Leading Northeast Asia security analyst Ian Easton argues that March through May is one of two ideal windows of meteorological opportunity for cross-strait amphibious operations, with the other occurring in September and October. For the U.S. joint force, the spring campaigning season in the Indo-Pacific is thus essential for strengthening regional partnerships, increasing multinational lethality, and instilling doubt in Chinese leaders’ minds about whether they could successfully invade Taiwan.

The joint force’s current campaigning actions along the first island chain and just beyond are already deterring Beijing from attempting such an invasion. But these actions have yet to fully exploit the timing challenges that Beijing faces. U.S. planners have conducted an ever-increasing number of cross-strait invasion wargames. Inevitably, though, these focus predominately on capability scorecard comparisons, and incorporate the misleading assumption that China is “playing a home game” while the United States is “playing an away game.” As Easton explains, historic weather patterns in the Taiwan Strait change the equation. From June through August, and then again between November and February, the weather in the Taiwan Strait, specifically frequent monsoons, typhoons, and prohibitive sea-states, make amphibious operations extremely difficult. For Chinese Communist Party leaders, the result is that if they were to attempt an invasion over the summer or winter months, they would consistently encounter unforgiving seas, high winds, and frequent rain, if not torrential downpours.

All of this means that with the right preparations, Washington does not have to be playing an away game. Through increasing interoperability and testing new concepts in and around the first island chain, U.S. forces can secure and exploit their seven-thousand-mile head start in any future Taiwan scenario. Understanding the current scope of U.S. spring campaigning in the region helps convey why timing, weather, alliances, and locations matter more than just inventory scorecards. As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has made clear, “campaigning is not business as usual — it is the deliberate effort to synchronize the Department’s activities and investments to aggregate focus and resources to shift conditions in our favor.” Rethinking the joint force’s posture during the most favorable months for a cross-strait invasion can shift conditions in America’s favor even further.

I read Deputy Secretary Hicks’ tweet while supporting the Balikatan 2023 exercise as one of the lead planners on Task Force 76/3. Balikatan is one of numerous critically timed spring campaigning activities in the Indo-Pacific. Others include Iron Fist in Japan, Cobra Gold in Thailand, Ssang Yong in South Korea, and Salaknib, which, like Balikatan, occurs in the Philippines. These exercises include marines like myself, as well as other branches of the joint force and a number of U.S. allies and partners. Among the key lessons from Balikatan 2023 is that by developing, reinforcing, and strengthening a distributed joint force campaigning approach across the Indo-Pacific, Washington can better leverage pre-existing regional partnerships to deter a cross-strait invasion. During the spring and fall, the joint force demonstrates its ability to deploy in China’s primary, ground-launched conventional long-range weapons-engagement zone, while regional allies demonstrate their willingness to partner and train with U.S. forces.

By placing the force in a vital stretch of geography during these crucial seasons, Washington makes good on commitments in the region and imposes diplomatic and military costs on Beijing. Moving forward, U.S. planners can enhance these efforts with a few key steps. These include making the experimental Task Force 76/3 permanent, improving coordination between Marine expeditionary forces and naval fleets, and maturing stand-in forces in the Pacific.

Key Places at Key Times

In late February and early March, as I was working with colleagues from the Philippines to finish preparations for Balikatan 2023, we were just a small component of a much wider endeavor. At that time, U.S. forces were already operating alongside the Armed Forces of the Philippines in Luzon as part of Salaknib. American military personnel were simultaneously arrayed alongside additional allied and partnered forces in key locations such as Japan’s southwest islands and Thailand, as well as operating along the western approaches to the Strait of Malacca.

image1.png


Figure 1: Joint force, allied, and partner campaigning activities during the spring in 2023.
Source: Littoral East Asia from China’s Perspective (Image credit: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments).
As the map above shows, America and its allies were active in considerable numbers along the entire first island chain. Approximately 5,500 sailors and marines from the USS America Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit operated alongside Japanese Self-Defense Forces during Iron Fist. This exercise focused on enhanced maritime domain awareness, seizing key terrain, and employing a variety of aviation- and surface-delivered fire support capabilities. From 2006 to 2022, Iron Fist was executed in California, or around 7,000 miles further east. Holding Iron Fist 2023 less than 100 miles northeast of Taiwan during one of the two ideal time windows for a cross-strait invasion provides tangible evidence of a new defense strategy and sends a much stronger message to Beijing.

Continued......
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Continued......

At the same time as Iron Fist, 6,000 additional American military personnel joined approximately 1,400 allied and partner forces for the 42nd iteration of Cobra Gold, taking place in Thailand and the waters surrounding the Strait of Malacca. Most of the U.S. forces participating in Cobra Gold were sailors and marines from the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group / 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. As the “crown jewel” of the U.S.-Thai alliance, this exercise demonstrates far more utility than just crisis response. Throughout Cobra Gold, these forces executed a variety of missions, such as command-and-control exercises, humanitarian and disaster relief projects, and field training evolutions, all focused on enhancing interoperability and strengthening relationships. In doing so, they employed new anti-armor systems, deep insertion techniques, and the only expeditionary fifth-generation strike fighters operating in the entire Southeast Asia region. The exercise also incorporated South Korea’s amphibious capabilities, including the ROKS II Chul Bong landing ship tank. On the diplomatic front, American naval forces also welcomed liaison officers from Thailand and South Korea on board the USS Makin Island.

Upon Cobra Gold’s conclusion, the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group’s three amphibious ships embarked with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit and, along with multiple South Korean warships, sailed through the Strait of Malacca. While proceeding through the East China Sea, the ships linked up with the USS America, which had recently completed its participation in Iron Fist. The combined forces’ embarked sailors and marines executed multiple integrated skills proficiency operations, including employing F-35Bs that were initially embarked on the USS Makin Island from the USS America. After this demonstration, the majority of the ships proceeded to Busan, South Korea, to begin Ssang Yong, a multi-week allied exercise focused on enhancing interoperability and further strengthening relationships. This year’s exercise was much more comprehensive than in years past. For example, the United Kingdom’s 40 Commando Marines, joined by two Royal Navy patrol ships, operated alongside and fully integrated with their U.S. and South Korean marine counterparts. Together, these combined forces executed a series of complex and distributed amphibious operations from and between ships located off South Korea’s southeastern coast.

Immediately following Ssang Yong’s conclusion, approximately 5,400 Filipino personnel and 12,200 U.S. personnel proceeded to carry out the largest iteration of Balikatan in the exercise’s 38-year history. Exercise activities occurred throughout the majority of April. As with Ssang Yong, Cobra Gold, and Iron Fist, they focused on enhancing interoperability, improving humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and strengthening allied relationships.

Coastal defense, perhaps more than any other mission set, figured prominently in Balikatan 2023. U.S. and Filipino infantry marines, including those from the new 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment, executed live-fire attacks focused on ensuring that they could seize and defend key terrain. From this terrain, these and other U.S. and Filipino troops, including those from the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, employed a variety of intelligence-collection assets, all focused on enhancing maritime domain awareness to inform combined force intelligence-fires fusion cells.

Finally, a variety of U.S. and Filipino units, including the U.S. Army’s 1st Multi-Domain Task Force and a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 detachment, participated in a culminating “SINKEX,” something that had not been part of Balikatan before. This involved destroying a vessel at sea that had violated the Philippines’ sovereignty, observed by President Ferdinand Marcos, the U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, and numerous other senior U.S. and Filipino government officials. Notably, shortly after observing the exercise, Marcos flew to the United States, where he met at the White House with President Joe Biden, and at the Department of Defense with Secretary Austin. During these meetings, the leaders discussed the importance of the nations’ strategic alliance, including Marcos’ recent decision to increase from five to nine the number of approved Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement locations in the Philippines that American forces can access.

As the spring campaigning season comes to its conclusion, the joint force is already well into preparing for this fall, during the other key meteorological window. While the details of these campaigning actions have not been released publicly yet, they are sure to build on relatively new activities across the Indo-Pacific region’s key maritime terrain executed in the fall of 2022, such as Kamandang in the Philippines and Resolute Dragon in Japan. Last September and October, marines and sailors from the 3rd Marine Division and the USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Executionary Unit, alongside Japanese and Filipino troops, operated throughout Japan’s southwest islands and across the Philippines, including in key maritime terrain located in the middle of the Luzon Strait. These campaigning activities also incorporated for the first time a new U.S. Marine Corps formation, Marine Rotational Force-Southeast Asia. This formation was designed specifically to meet the National Defense Strategy’s campaigning intent and demonstrated its ability to do so during a critical time window in key locations astride the Strait of Malacca, such as Singapore and Indonesia.

Room to Improve

To capitalize on the success of this spring and last fall’s initial campaigning achievements, future exercises need more than just a task and purpose conceptualized during a planning conference, which is still too often how they begin. Instead, Department of Defense officials should develop careful and deliberate linkages to an overall joint force campaign approach. Each exercise should build upon its earlier iterations to increase lethality and build diplomatic pressure. Several specific changes could enhance the deterrent value generated by U.S. forces during key periods in the year. With the seven-thousand-mile head start in mind, a deliberate and carefully coordinated campaign of exercises and operations planning will send a message to Beijing: not today, not ever.

The first recommendation focuses on the force that I’m grateful to serve as a planner for, Task Force 76/3, which was originally designed as an experimental concept sourced out of III Marine Expeditionary Force and Expeditionary Strike Group 7 / Commander Task Force 76. The naval services should now codify a permanent naval-integrated command to guide, direct, and coordinate maritime campaigning in the Indo-Pacific — the priority theater. This would be similar to the maturation of Task Force 51/5 over the last decade as a combined Navy-Marine Corps staff that is subordinated to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and executes command and control of Amphibious Ready Groups / Marine Expeditionary Units when operating in U.S. Central Command.

Task Force 76/3 should become a permanent integrated blue-green staff subordinated to the Seventh Fleet and responsible for orchestrating the campaigning of the USS America Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit based out of Japan, as well as all California-based Amphibious Ready Groups / Marine Expeditionary Units sourced by Third Fleet and 1st Marine Expeditionary Force. Given the theater and the presence of allies and partners, Task Force 76/3 should also become joint, combined, and partnered, with liaison officers integrated from the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Second, the three-star-led Marine expeditionary forces and naval fleets should better synchronize their efforts through deliberate collaboration. Much of the success of the 2023 spring exercises resulted from efforts of formations such as 1st Marine Expeditionary Force and 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force. But while these forces participated in some of the same exercises with the same goals, they were not coordinated to meet Austin’s intent for synchronization.

For the Marine Corps to achieve its campaigning potential in the Indo-Pacific, the service will have to do everything possible to enhance close coordination, including between its two three-star formations whose headquarters are located thousands of miles apart. These formations should draw closer together, embedding liaisons within staffs and preparing combined planning objectives and operations centers — while simultaneously forging ever-closer relationships with the Third and Seventh Fleets. Consider as just one example what this recommendation could look like for the California-based Amphibious Ready Groups / Marine Expeditionary Units. These are currently manned, trained, equipped, and certified by Third Fleet and 1st Marine Expeditionary Force respectively, and then consistently deploy to the Western Pacific, where they fall under the operational control of Seventh Fleet. If the first recommendation is implemented, they would fall under a permanently naval-integrated Task Force 76/3 and have their entire force generation and deployment model informed from the outset by campaigning plans developed more than a year beforehand.

Third, the Marine Corps should seek to capitalize on recent U.S. diplomatic gains in the Pacific by codifying and maturing stand-in forces, or what some colloquially refer to as rotational forces. Marine Rotational Force-Darwin is a known model, deploying marine units to Darwin, Australia to partner with a critical ally and build robust operational capabilities. Initiated during the late 2000s as part of the “Pivot to the Pacific,” Marine Rotational Force-Darwin subsequently took a decade to mature. In the past year, 1st Marine Expeditionary Force’s initial employment of Marine Rotational Force-Southeast Asia builds on a similar model and shows its promise as an evolving program. This could include increasing deliberately timed deployments to the Philippines, where it could help to enable the recently announced Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites. These would not need to be heel-to-toe, year-round deployments, but rather linked to the specific cross-strait vulnerability windows.

To implement this recommendation, the Defense Department would need considerable assistance from other branches of the U.S. government to secure certain key prerequisites. These include multi-option mobility platforms, diplomatic permissions to transport and share munitions, and partner agreements to welcome stand-in forces in ports across the Indo-Pacific. Rather than leave things to chance and personal initiative, the Navy and Marine Corps should codify the establishment of formations such as Task Force 76/3 to conceive, direct, and execute campaigning in the Pacific.

Maximizing Momentum and Opportunities to Deter

While the most recent fall and spring campaigning efforts involved many noteworthy successes, the joint force needs to do more and in short order. As Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. John C. Aquillino recently stated, when it comes to deterring Beijing, “everything needs to go faster.” Doing so requires the joint force to first focus on the inherent natural obstacles, both from the sky and the sea, standing between China and Taiwan. Next, the joint force should double down on the historic, nascent, and proposed efforts described above. Washington cannot afford to keep planning and executing these exercises in isolation. Rather they should be one seamless and collective joint and allied campaign ruthlessly conveying the message to Beijing: not today, not tomorrow, not ever.



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Benjamin Van Horrick is a Marine Corps logistics officer. He is the current logistics operations officer for Task Force 76/3. The views presented are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the U.S. Marine Corps, the U.S. Navy, or the Department of Defense.
 

danielboon

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37 FIGHTER JETS PENETRATE AIRSPACE Shock moment in the Taiwan crisis​

A Chinese warplane takes off during a military exercise in April

A Chinese warplane takes off during a military exercise in April

Photo: An Ni/AP
SPLITTWEETSEND
06/08/2023 - 02:19 p.m

More than 30 Chinese warplanes entered the island's air surveillance zone on Thursday, according to the Taiwan Defense Ministry.
As of 5 a.m. (Wednesday, 11 p.m. CEST), "a total of 37 Chinese military aircraft" were sighted in the southwest of the Air Defense Identification Zone (Adiz), defense spokesman Sun Li Fang said. Some aircraft continued to fly towards the western Pacific for reconnaissance exercises.
China regards self-governing and democratic Taiwan as a breakaway territory that it wants to reunite with the mainland - if necessary by military force. In recent years, Beijing has ramped up military air operations in Taiwan's air surveillance zone, with operations doubling in 2022 compared to the previous year.
ONLY SIX METERS AWAY!Fighter jets come dangerously close
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01:27

Source: Reuters / China Ministry of Defense12/30/2022

ALSO READ​

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US WARSHIP SIGHTED IN SEA AREA OFF CHINESE COASTBang in the Taiwan crisis​

On Sunday, the US warship "US...

Taiwan's Adiz is significantly larger than its airspace and overlaps with China's, even part of mainland China is part of the surveillance zone.
Taiwan's military is "closely monitoring the situation," the Defense Ministry said on Twitter. Patrol aircraft, naval ships and missile defense systems have been deployed.
Experts say the escalating operations in Taiwan's Adiz are part of a larger "grey area" tactic by China to keep pressure on the island. At the same time, Beijing reacts sensitively to any diplomatic moves that make Taiwan appear as a sovereign state and to military exercises in the area of the island.
In April, Beijing staged a three-day military exercise simulating a blockade of the island after US House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. 37 Kampfjets dringen in Luftraum ein: Schock-Moment in der Taiwan-Krise
 

jward

passin' thru

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
7h

Taiwanese defense: 10 Chinese air fighters crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait.


Taiwanese defense: Monitoring of 4 Chinese ships carrying combat forces on standby in the Taiwan Strait.
 

jward

passin' thru
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
5m

Rutabaga is issuing orders for the evacuation of all American citizens who are ChiCom spies from Taiwan.

 

jward

passin' thru

N. Korean leader vows stronger strategic ties with Russia in message to Putin | Yonhap News Agency​


김수연


SEOUL, June 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has voiced his willingness to build closer strategic ties with Russia in his congratulatory message to Russian President Vladimir Putin over Moscow's key national holiday, state media said Monday.

In the message sent on the occasion of Russia Day, Kim said friendly relations between the North and Russia are a "precious strategic asset" and his country will make efforts to ceaselessly develop such cooperative ties, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Russia Day is celebrated on June 12 to mark the adoption of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic in 1990.
The North's leader affirmed "his willingness to strive for closer strategic cooperation between the DPRK and Russia," the KCNA said in an English-language dispatch, using the acronym of the North's full name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Kim said the Russian people's struggle to counter hostile forces' move to deprive Moscow of its sovereignty and security has entered a "new decisive phase" and his people are extending "full support and solidarity" for Russia, the KCNA added.
Kim's message appears to reaffirm the North's support of Russia in Moscow's war with Ukraine.
The North has been strengthening its close ties with Russia despite international condemnation over the war, amid allegations that Pyongyang has provided arms to Moscow for use in the war.

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin shaking hands for a summit in Vladivostok on April 26, 2019. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
5m

Rutabaga is issuing orders for the evacuation of all American citizens who are ChiCom spies from Taiwan.

Faytuks News Δ

@Faytuks
·
3h

BREAKING: The US government is preparing evacuation plans for American citizens living in Taiwan, three sources told The Messenger.
 
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