WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

passin' thru

China conducted first operation with new helicopter carrier, Pentagon leak says​


Bill Gertz


Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were briefed on intelligence regarding a new Chinese helicopter aircraft carrier that is poised to be a significant tool for Beijing’s plan to project power in the region, according to a leaked Pentagon document.

One of three new carriers was employed recently in exercises near Taiwan, and the warships are expected to play a major role in China’s plans to rapidly transport amphibious forces to sites in the South China Sea, and ultimately around the world, according to naval analysts.

The document, part of a trove of hundreds of classified U.S. documents that were reportedly leaked in recent months by a junior National Guard airman on a social media site popular with online gamers, was produced by the J-2 intelligence division of the Joint Staff. Analysts reported Feb. 28 that China’s first large deck helicopter carrier, described as LHA-31 for “landing helicopter assault” ship, had completed its first “operational activity.” The ship is the Hainan, a Type 075 helicopter carrier that carries large numbers of marines, armored vehicles and air-cushioned troop transports.

No other details were provided in the document, which was headlined “Daily Intelligence Update” and labeled “Top secret.”

However, the report coincided with a Chinese state media report on the warship around the same time.

The intelligence report indicates the activities of China’s growing fleet of amphibious warfare ships are closely monitored as tensions over Taiwan continue to rise. Three Type 075 warships — the Hainan, the Guangxi and the Anhu — were all commissioned in 16 months, starting in 2021. The Chinese reportedly plan to produce eight of the helicopter carriers.

Chinese state media released a military video on Saturday timed to the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army that featured the Hainan. Forces were shown mustering armored vehicles inside the ship, launching helicopters from its deck, and dispatching air-cushioned troop transports from the stern as part of a war-simulation exercise.

The Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times said the video “highlighted the country’s resolution to shatter secessionist forces on the island of Taiwan.” The video ends with a naval officer ordering amphibious forces ashore, apparently as part of an exercise. The helicopter carrier conducted live-fire combat training in the South China Sea and western Pacific for 30 days and sailed more than 9,000 nautical miles, Chinese Central Television reported March 2.

The Hainan sailed with a Type 052 guided missile destroyer and a Type 054 guided missile frigate from Zhangjiang, in southern China’s Guangdong Province in late January.

The second helicopter carrier, the Guangxi, took part in recent war games around Taiwan held following the meeting earlier this month of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California, China Central Television reported.

Based on Marine design

Defense analysts say China’s Type 075 helicopter carriers are based on the design of the Marine Corps’ America-class landing helicopter assault ships, a key expeditionary warfare capability. The U.S. crafts’ firepower and warfighting capabilities are said to be greater than those of the Hainan and two companion carriers the Pentagon calls Yushen-class warships.

The 778-foot deck of the Yushen carriers can be used to launch up to 28 helicopters and drones, and the carriers also are armed with surface-to-air missiles, and 30-millimeter guns.

The Pentagon’s most recent annual report on the Chinese military said the Hainan was commissioned in April 2021 with the two others commissioned in December 2021 and January 2022.

“The Yushen-class are highly capable large-deck amphibious ships that will provide the [Chinese navy] with an all-aspect expeditionary capability,” the report said, noting they carry a large number of landing craft, forces, armored vehicles, and helicopters.

The report said the Chinese military has stepped up preparations for a Taiwan invasion: “Significant reorganizations and amphibious assault training in recent years likely indicate that the Taiwan contingency is a high priority for the army, ” and the Yushen-class carriers “would play a key role in an amphibious seizure” of Taiwan, the report said.

A new class of amphibious assault ship called Type 076 is also under construction and will be equipped with electromagnetic catapults to support fixed-wing aircraft and make it more like an aircraft carrier.

A report by the Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute said the Type 075 carriers represent a significant advance in power projection capability for China’s military.

“Despite the general hype over the Type 075’s future use overseas, it also offers the [People’s Liberation Army Navy] and the joint forces a useful aviation support platform for operations closer to home, such as in supporting and potentially enforcing PRC claims with military force in the South China Sea,” the report said.

The carriers could leapfrog infantry throughout islands in the sea, the report added.

“The Type 075 also has certain utility in a joint island landing campaign across the Taiwan Strait but is not the type of vessel optimized for large-scale delivery of combat forces in high intensity contested and confined battlespace,” the report said.

London-based Janes, the private defense and intelligence analysis service, said in a recent report that the Chinese are seeking to copy Marine Expeditionary Units, by adding 30,000 personnel in recent years to its marine forces.

“Without foreign air bases and with limited aircraft carriers, China has a limited capability to project airpower beyond limited amphibious operations using its Type 075,” the report said. “Type 075s, in conjunction with Type 071 landing platform docks and other, smaller landing ships, may be able to conduct limited amphibious operations overseas.”

Lack of helicopters, however, will limit amphibious assault capabilities until 2030, the report said.
 

jward

passin' thru

Guatemala vows to be 'solid diplomatic ally' to Taiwan​

7 hours ago7 hours ago
The Central American country is one of just 13 that still recognizes Taiwan and not mainland China. Beijing said president Alejandro Giammattei's siding with Taipei has "led to a dead end."


President Alejandro Giammattei of Guatemala — one of the few countries left that recognizes Taiwan over China — met with his Taiwanese counterpart Tsai Ing-wen on Tuesday.
Giammattei was welcomed with military honors and a banquet a day after arriving for his four-day trip.
The Guatemalan president called the two "brotherly countries" important allies. Neighboring Honduras broke off its ties with Taipei last month and recognized Beijing.
"I want everyone to trust that Guatemala will continue to be a solid, diplomatic ally to the Republic of Taiwan and will continue to deepen cooperation in all areas," he said, referring to the island as the Republic of Taiwan rather than its official name the Republic of China — as opposed to the People's Republic of China, claimed by Beijing.

Giammattei angers China​

President Tsai traveled to Guatemala and Belize in April, two of the only 13 countries that maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
Beijing considers the island part of its territory and has vowed to take control, with force if necessary.
It also refuses official diplomatic ties with countries that recognize Taiwan. Some countries, like the US, maintain official diplomatic ties with Beijing but also have an informal presence on the island of Taiwan.
A Chinese Foreign Minister spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said from Beijing that "the one-China principle is a universal consensus" and "the agenda to conclude with Taiwan has led to a dead end."
"We advise the Giammattei government not to take the side of the evildoer," she added.

Tensions remain high between China and Taiwan​

Taiwan losing its allies​


Giammattei spoke at Taiwan's parliament after his welcoming ceremony. His support was warmly welcomed.


Lawmakers gave a standing ovation when he ended by saying "Long live Taiwan: free, sovereign and independent."


Tsai presented him with the Order of Brilliant Jade to recognize the two countries' cooperation in the fields of economy, health, culture and education.


Nine former allies of Taiwan have cut their ties since Tsai took office. She has taken a much more pro-independence stance than her predecessor, angering Beijing, which in turn used economic incentives to lure away Taiwan's remaining supporters.

 

jward

passin' thru
No, Not even in the golden screw driver club, iffin I recall correctly.

ETA: wiki wisdom tells us this:

In 1972, United States president Richard Nixon ordered nuclear weapons to be removed from Taiwan and this was implemented by 1974. Nuclear weapons are known to have been stored at Tainan Air Force Base.

Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

US arms dealers to visit Taiwan on May 2, meet with defense ministry​

Delegation reportedly consists of 25 U.S. defense department suppliers​

411

By Stephanie Chiang, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/04/26 21:04

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A delegation of 25 U.S. arms suppliers is expected to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday (May 2) for a national defense industry forum.
CNA cited a source close to the issue as saying the delegation will hold seminars and visit the Ministry of National Defense, National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), as well as cyber security companies. It will also meet with Taiwanese drone manufacturers to discuss how to reinforce drones.
The delegation will also discuss military logistics and ammunition with the Taiwan government.

The delegation is the largest U.S. arms supplier group to visit Taiwan since 2019. According to CNA’s source, entities in the delegation include AeroVironment, AEVEX Aerospace, the American Institute in Taiwan, BAE Systems, Cubic Corporation, Elbit Systems of America, General Atomics, General Electric, LKD Aerospace, Maritime Tactical Systems, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Pacific Rim Defense, Persistent Systems, Planate Management Group, Project 2049, Raytheon Technologies, Tactical Air Support, Teledyne FLIR LLC, The Rehfeldt Group, U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, Lockheed Martin Corporation, L3Harris, and SNC Corporation.
During this visit, AeroVironment may review the Taiwan version of the Switchblade drone and give feedback to its developer, the NCSIST. The features of the drone, which is scheduled to be tested this summer and mass-produced in 2024, are similar to those of the company’s Switchblade 300. US arms dealers to visit Taiwan on May 2, meet with defense ministry | Taiwan News | 2023-04-26 21:04:00
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Taiwan drills to focus on piercing blockade, get 'Five Eyes' intelligence link​

By Ben Blanchard and Roger Tung
Reuters
April 26, 20233:43 AM EDTLast Updated 19 hours ago

TAIPEI, April 26 (Reuters) - Taiwan's annual military drills this year take into account China's recent war games and focus on breaking a blockade, the defence ministry said on Wednesday, as a senior security official said Taiwan now had a "Five Eyes" intelligence link.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has ramped up military pressure in the past three years to try to assert its sovereignty claim.

China practised precision strikes and blockades in drills around the island this month staged after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles.

Taiwan's defence ministry said the "Han Kuang" exercises would be split into two parts - tabletop drills from May 15 to 19, and forces mobilised from July 24 to 28 in live-fire exercises.

The focus will be on combat forces "preservation" and "maritime interception", it said.

That will include using civilian airports and dispersing air assets, as well as disguising forces on the ground, the ministry added.

The naval element will integrate sea, air and land forces to attack enemy forces and amphibious assault ships, and to protect sea lanes and counter blockade efforts, it said.


"Of course our drills are based on the threat of the communists invading Taiwan and its recent military exercises around Taiwan," the ministry's combat planning chief, General Lin Wen-huang, told a news conference.

Beijing has never renounced using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and has vowed to defend its freedom and democracy.

In view of the rising threat level from China, Taiwan has sought closer security co-operation with the United States and its allies.

Taking lawmaker questions in parliament on Wednesday, Tsai Ming-yen, the director-general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau said it had upgraded its computers to exchange real-time intelligence with the "Five Eyes" alliance of the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

"We can connect with the 'Five Eyes' alliance through a confidential system," he said, without giving details.

'STRONG NAVY'​

Last week China's navy put out a slickly produced video to celebrate its 74th anniversary, showing the Shandong aircraft carrier and new amphibious assault ships simulating an attack and landing somewhere in "Western Pacific waters", suggesting it was planning a Taiwan contingency.

"It takes a strong navy to safeguard the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday, when asked what message the video sent.

"The Democratic Progressive Party authorities and Taiwan independence separatist forces are trying to collude with external forces, but there's no chance of splitting the country," she said, referring to Taiwan's ruling party.

Taiwan is trying to boost its defensive capabilities by investing in new equipment such as long-range missiles and drones and by extending compulsory military service to one year.

Although Taiwan's military is generally well-trained and well-equipped with mostly U.S.-made hardware, China has huge numerical superiority and is adding advanced equipment such as stealth fighters.

Taiwan's domestic security chief Tsai told reporters China was using new "cognitive warfare" methods, such as artificial intelligence applications, to try to sway public opinion and spread fake news ahead of January's presidential elections.

"We need to continue paying attention to what they are up to during the election process," he said.

Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Robert Birsel

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Taiwan calls up female reservists for military training​

1st group of women veterans will take part in maneuvers on May 8​


By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/04/25 18:11

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The first group of women veterans to be called up for reservist training will begin taking part in military exercises on May 8.

The Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced in January that it would implement a plan in 2023 to commence military training for women reservists. On May 8, the first group of women veterans is being asked to report to a tactical position in Taoyuan City's Bade District, where they will undergo five to seven days of the same training as their male counterparts, reported CNA.

There are currently two training systems for reservists, which includes the old formula of five to seven days, and the new longer period of 14 days. According to MND statistics, the number of reservists undergoing 14 days of training will increase from 15,000 in 2022 to 22,000 in 2023, while 96,000 will undergo five to seven days of maneuvers, bringing the total number of reservists refreshing their skills to 118,000.

In addition, regardless of the new or old system, the training has been changed to be situated in a tactical position, in order to facilitate an in-depth understanding of the terrain, features, and key infrastructure distribution in the area to be defended, which will help facilitate rapid mobilization and completion of combat deployments during wartime.

Unlike men, women serving in the military is not compulsory, but they can join as volunteers. According to MND statistics, more than 25,000 women now serve in Taiwan's armed forces, 15% of the country's 180,000 active duty personnel.

This year, 220 women veterans will be required to take part in reservist training, out of a total estimated women reservist force of 8,915. It is estimated that 68 will take part in the drills in May and the remaining 152 will participate in the fall, reported Up Media.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

What’s Good for Elon Musk and Tesla is Not Good for America​

Transcript of Peter's Latest Podcast​


PETER NAVARRO
APR 26, 2023
  • As Joe Biden’s increasingly virulent stagflation chokes off auto buyers and the American economy, Elon Musk’s predatory pricing strategy for Tesla is likely to snuff out General Motors and Ford. Musk’s gambit will likely also cede long term control of the global auto market not to Tesla but rather to Communist China.
  • Tesla’s massive and growing Made in China footprint virtually ensures that Communist Chinese producers will steal Tesla’s intellectual property and technologies and emerge collectively as global market leaders, eventually pushing Tesla aside.
  • In the event of a military conflict, trade war, or clash over human rights with Communist China, China’s dictator Xi Jinping will order the takeover of Tesla facilities in much the same way Hitler used the German-based factories of Henry Ford to transport his war machines.
  • There are the very significant risks to election integrity associated with Musk’s unholy Communist China alliance. Both to kowtow to his Chinese masters and to protect his Tesla investments, Musk must staunchly oppose the one presidential candidate in 2024 that the Communist Chinese least want to inhabit the Oval Office, Donald J. Trump.
As Joe Biden’s increasingly virulent stagflation chokes off auto buyers and the American economy, Elon Musk’s predatory pricing strategy for Tesla is likely to snuff out General Motors and Ford. Musk’s gambit will likely also cede long term control of the global auto market not to Tesla but rather to Communist China.

In the financial press, Musk’s price slashing is portrayed simply as a desperate man taking desperate measures as inflation, higher interest rates, and recession savage the US auto market. But Musk is one of the smartest humans on the planet; and it is critical to understand several key economic concepts underlying Elon’s price cutting strategy.

The first is “economies of scale.” Industries like auto manufacturing that require massive capital investments can best lower unit costs of production by expanding factory scale. Whichever company achieves the greatest economies of scale will thereby have the firepower to drive out other competitors through lower, and yes, predatory prices.

With such “predatory pricing,” the largest scale companies can drive out the smaller ones by driving down price to their cost of production, thereby earning zero profits but not operating at a loss. In contrast, smaller companies can’t match that predatory price without losing money and are thereby driven out of the market.

This is why historically we never saw a proliferation of hundreds of auto manufacturers but rather simply the Big Three of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler and foreign giants like Toyota, Hyundai, and BMW. And extinction is precisely the fate that awaits US automakers Ford and GM if Tesla succeeds in dominating the electric vehicle market.

You might think lower Tesla prices at a time when inflation is raging, would be good for America. Enter Stage Marxist Left, Communist China.

Tesla is already producing over half of its worldwide output in Communist China. Despite Musk promises not to do so, Tesla is also readying to flood America with Made in China slave labor imports – its Gigafactory Shanghai is already the world’s biggest electric vehicle manufacturer.

From my days in the White House, I learned firsthand that fewer auto manufacturing jobs in America and a larger trade deficit with Communist China means slower US economic growth and downward pressure on wages.

Here’s the even bigger danger: Tesla’s massive and growing Made in China footprint virtually ensures that Communist Chinese producers will steal Tesla’s intellectual property and technologies and emerge collectively as global market leaders, eventually pushing Tesla aside.

Such IP theft and tech transfer will occur both through the forced technology transfer policies implemented by the Chinese Communist Party and through China’s rampant industrial espionage. Here, I can think of only one American multinational that never has been victimized by such expropriation, Oracle. In contrast, Communist China stripped General Electric clean and turned GE from one of America’s greatest national champions into a pale shadow of its former self.

There is also this looming geopolitical threat: In the event of a military conflict, trade war, or clash over human rights with Communist China, China’s dictator Xi Jinping will order the takeover of Tesla facilities in much the same way Hitler used the German-based factories of Henry Ford to transport his war machines.

Lest anyone doubt this possibility, just what do you think is going to happen the day after Communist China crosses the Taiwan Strait and invades one of the world’s most vibrant democracies?


Finally, there are the very significant risks to election integrity associated with Musk’s unholy Communist China alliance. Both to kowtow to his Chinese masters and to protect his Tesla investments, Musk must staunchly oppose the one presidential candidate in 2024 that the Communist Chinese least want to inhabit the Oval Office, Donald J. Trump. Under a Trump presidency, Musk’s Made in China Teslas would face massive tariffs, and he would be under intense Trumpian pressure to bring that production home.

Of course, the mega-billionaire Musk has the same kind of election rigging money that Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook used to help the Democrats set up illegal drop box and ballot harvesting operations in key battleground states in the 2020 presidential race.

At the same time, like Zuckerberg, Musk also owns a social media platform in Twitter that, along with Facebook, has already been proven to have illegally intervened to stop Trump in 2020. Remember: Both Zuckerberg and Twitter collaborated with the FBI to suppress dissemination of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal which alone would have swung the race for Trump.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

What’s Good for Elon Musk and Tesla is Not Good for America​

Transcript of Peter's Latest Podcast​


PETER NAVARRO
APR 26, 2023
  • As Joe Biden’s increasingly virulent stagflation chokes off auto buyers and the American economy, Elon Musk’s predatory pricing strategy for Tesla is likely to snuff out General Motors and Ford. Musk’s gambit will likely also cede long term control of the global auto market not to Tesla but rather to Communist China.
  • Tesla’s massive and growing Made in China footprint virtually ensures that Communist Chinese producers will steal Tesla’s intellectual property and technologies and emerge collectively as global market leaders, eventually pushing Tesla aside.
  • In the event of a military conflict, trade war, or clash over human rights with Communist China, China’s dictator Xi Jinping will order the takeover of Tesla facilities in much the same way Hitler used the German-based factories of Henry Ford to transport his war machines.
  • There are the very significant risks to election integrity associated with Musk’s unholy Communist China alliance. Both to kowtow to his Chinese masters and to protect his Tesla investments, Musk must staunchly oppose the one presidential candidate in 2024 that the Communist Chinese least want to inhabit the Oval Office, Donald J. Trump.
As Joe Biden’s increasingly virulent stagflation chokes off auto buyers and the American economy, Elon Musk’s predatory pricing strategy for Tesla is likely to snuff out General Motors and Ford. Musk’s gambit will likely also cede long term control of the global auto market not to Tesla but rather to Communist China.

In the financial press, Musk’s price slashing is portrayed simply as a desperate man taking desperate measures as inflation, higher interest rates, and recession savage the US auto market. But Musk is one of the smartest humans on the planet; and it is critical to understand several key economic concepts underlying Elon’s price cutting strategy.

The first is “economies of scale.” Industries like auto manufacturing that require massive capital investments can best lower unit costs of production by expanding factory scale. Whichever company achieves the greatest economies of scale will thereby have the firepower to drive out other competitors through lower, and yes, predatory prices.

With such “predatory pricing,” the largest scale companies can drive out the smaller ones by driving down price to their cost of production, thereby earning zero profits but not operating at a loss. In contrast, smaller companies can’t match that predatory price without losing money and are thereby driven out of the market.

This is why historically we never saw a proliferation of hundreds of auto manufacturers but rather simply the Big Three of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler and foreign giants like Toyota, Hyundai, and BMW. And extinction is precisely the fate that awaits US automakers Ford and GM if Tesla succeeds in dominating the electric vehicle market.

You might think lower Tesla prices at a time when inflation is raging, would be good for America. Enter Stage Marxist Left, Communist China.

Tesla is already producing over half of its worldwide output in Communist China. Despite Musk promises not to do so, Tesla is also readying to flood America with Made in China slave labor imports – its Gigafactory Shanghai is already the world’s biggest electric vehicle manufacturer.

From my days in the White House, I learned firsthand that fewer auto manufacturing jobs in America and a larger trade deficit with Communist China means slower US economic growth and downward pressure on wages.

Here’s the even bigger danger: Tesla’s massive and growing Made in China footprint virtually ensures that Communist Chinese producers will steal Tesla’s intellectual property and technologies and emerge collectively as global market leaders, eventually pushing Tesla aside.

Such IP theft and tech transfer will occur both through the forced technology transfer policies implemented by the Chinese Communist Party and through China’s rampant industrial espionage. Here, I can think of only one American multinational that never has been victimized by such expropriation, Oracle. In contrast, Communist China stripped General Electric clean and turned GE from one of America’s greatest national champions into a pale shadow of its former self.

There is also this looming geopolitical threat: In the event of a military conflict, trade war, or clash over human rights with Communist China, China’s dictator Xi Jinping will order the takeover of Tesla facilities in much the same way Hitler used the German-based factories of Henry Ford to transport his war machines.

Lest anyone doubt this possibility, just what do you think is going to happen the day after Communist China crosses the Taiwan Strait and invades one of the world’s most vibrant democracies?


Finally, there are the very significant risks to election integrity associated with Musk’s unholy Communist China alliance. Both to kowtow to his Chinese masters and to protect his Tesla investments, Musk must staunchly oppose the one presidential candidate in 2024 that the Communist Chinese least want to inhabit the Oval Office, Donald J. Trump. Under a Trump presidency, Musk’s Made in China Teslas would face massive tariffs, and he would be under intense Trumpian pressure to bring that production home.

Of course, the mega-billionaire Musk has the same kind of election rigging money that Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook used to help the Democrats set up illegal drop box and ballot harvesting operations in key battleground states in the 2020 presidential race.

At the same time, like Zuckerberg, Musk also owns a social media platform in Twitter that, along with Facebook, has already been proven to have illegally intervened to stop Trump in 2020. Remember: Both Zuckerberg and Twitter collaborated with the FBI to suppress dissemination of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal which alone would have swung the race for Trump.


In the event of a military conflict, trade war, or clash over human rights with Communist China, China’s dictator Xi Jinping will order the takeover of Tesla facilities in much the same way Hitler used the German-based factories of Henry Ford to transport his war machines.

Lest anyone doubt this possibility, just what do you think is going to happen the day after Communist China crosses the Taiwan Strait and invades one of the world’s most vibrant democracies?
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

If China invaded Taiwan it would destroy world trade, says James Cleverly​

Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
Guardian
Tue 25 Apr 2023 22.00 BST

UK foreign secretary warns a war across Taiwan strait and likely destruction of semiconductor industry would have global effects

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would destroy world trade, and distance would offer no protection to the inevitable catastrophic blow to the global economy, the UK’s foreign secretary, James Cleverly, warned in a set piece speech on Britain’s relations with Beijing.


In remarks that differ from French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to distance Europe from any potential US involvement in a future conflict over Taiwan, and which firmly support continued if guarded engagement with Beijing, Cleverly said “no country could shield itself from the repercussions of a war in Taiwan”.

He added that he shuddered to think of the financial and human ruin that would ensue.

Urging no side to take unilateral action to change the status quo, he asserted the relevance of Taiwan to UK interests saying: “About half of the world’s container ships pass through these vital waters [the Taiwan Strait] every year, laden with goods bound for Europe and the far corners of the world. Taiwan is a thriving democracy and a crucial link in global supply chains, particularly for advanced semi-conductors.

Joseph Wu speaks at a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan, in March 2023
Taiwan foreign minister warns of conflict with China in 2027

“A war across the Strait would not only be a human tragedy, it would destroy world trade worth $2.6 trillion, according to Nikkei Asia. No country could shield itself from the repercussions.

“Distance would offer no protection from this catastrophic blow to the global economy – and to China most of all.”

He added: “As we watch new bases appearing in the South China Sea and beyond, we are bound to ask ourselves: what is it all for? Why is China making this colossal investment?

“If we are left to draw our own conclusions, prudence dictates that we must assume the worst.”


Overall Cleverly set himself apart from advocates of economic decoupling including some of his own backbenchers saying he wanted Britain to “engage directly with China, bilaterally and multilaterally, to preserve and create open, constructive and stable relations, reflecting China’s global importance”.

Although he said the mass incarceration in Xinjiang cannot be ignored or brushed aside, he said: “We believe in a positive trade and investment relationship, whilst avoiding dependencies in critical supply chains.

“We want British companies to do business in China – just as American, ASEAN, Australian and EU companies do – and we will support their efforts to make the terms work for both sides, pushing for a level playing field and fairer competition.”

China he acknowledged represented a ruthlessly authoritarian tradition utterly at odds with Britain’s own. “But we have an obligation to future generations to engage because otherwise we would be failing in our duty to sustain – and shape – the international order. Shirking that challenge would be a sign not of strength but of weakness.”

At the same time he balanced this by saying: “The UK had a right to protect core interests too, and one of them is to promote the kind of world that we want to live in, where people everywhere have a universal human right to be treated with dignity, free from torture, slavery or arbitrary detention.”

He insisted, without going into details: “We are not going to be silent about interference in our political system, or technology theft, or industrial espionage. We will do more to safeguard academic freedom and research.” He did not repeat the promise by Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, to close Chinese-controlled Confucius Institutes at British universities.

He also urged China in its relations with Russia over Ukraine not to allow Vladimir Putin to trample upon China’s own stated principles of non-interference and respect for sovereignty.

He told China: “A powerful and responsible nation cannot simply abstain when this happens, or draw closer to the aggressor, or aid and abet the aggression. The rights of a sovereign nation like Ukraine cannot be eradicated just because the eradicator enjoys a ‘strategic partnership’ with China.”

Beijing’s response to the speech was muted. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the foreign affairs ministry, focused on Cleverly’s call for China to be transparent about “the doctrine and intent behind its military expansion”.

Mao accused Cleverly of making a “groundless” accusation, and said China’s defence building was aimed at safeguarding its own security.

“We advance modernisation in a peaceful way and have never invaded any country,” she said at a regular press conference. “China has always pursued a national defence policy that is defensive in nature.”

In an editorial, nationalistic tabloid the Global Times, said still the speech was “full of cold war cliches” but also broadly a “correction of the UK’s aggressive line towards China”.

“We welcome Cleverly’s positive remarks, at least it can be seen a little possibility of a turnaround in China-UK relations, but we remain cautious about how much it will be implemented in the UK’s China policy,” it said, warning the UK not to “interfere in the Taiwan question”.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

‘Resupply is not an option’: Lawmakers wargame Chinese invasion of Taiwan​

BY LAURA KELLY - 04/20/23 12:54 PM ET
The Hill

Lawmakers are confronting stark realities over a possible Chinese invasion against Taiwan, raising an urgent alarm that the U.S. must act faster to stock up the island on the weapons needed to counter such a military attack.

That is one of the conclusions drawn after a wargame exercise Wednesday night carried out by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, a bipartisan panel dedicated to identifying the greatest risks posed by the People’s Republic of China against U.S. national security interests.

U.S. officials have warned that China could invade Taiwan as early as 2027.

China’s goal in bringing Taiwan’s democratic government under control of the People’s Republic is viewed as one of its most sacred policy goals.

U.S. officials have warned that even as Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to impose economic or diplomatic pressure to subsume the island, a military option is becoming increasingly likely.

Lawmakers — with an eye on Ukraine’s more than yearlong defensive war against Russia and the global consequences — are raising an urgent alarm that Taiwan needs to have the military means in place to deter Beijing from launching an invasion.

“We are well within the window of maximum danger for a Chinese Communist Party invasion of Taiwan,
and yesterday’s wargame stressed the need to take action to deter CCP aggression and arm Taiwan to the teeth before any crisis begins,” the committee’s chairman, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), said in a statement to The Hill on Thursday.

The wargame was carried out behind closed doors on Capitol Hill as a tabletop exercise between lawmakers, playing the role of the Taiwanese, and defense experts at the Center for a New American Security, playing the part of the Chinese.

The game lasted for about two hours and reinforced the resolve of many lawmakers to address vulnerabilities they were already concerned about, said Andrew Metrick, a fellow with the Defense Program at CNAS and co-creator of the wargame.

“I was impressed with all of the members and their thoughtfulness, their seriousness, and I would say their commitment to taking the lessons from these types of exercises and applying them to deterrence so that this never comes to pass,” he said.

Metrick also commended the committee members for stepping out of their comfort zone to confront the high stakes of such a military conflict.

“When they are confronted with the potential for death and destruction on scales that haven’t been seen in decades, that is sobering … taking that on and thinking about those hard statesmen- or stateswoman-like choices is difficult. It’s not an easy thing. It’s not a comfortable thing. It’s a necessary thing.”

Urgent call for weapons delivery​

A source close to the committee said the wargame reinforced the urgency of U.S. military supplies to Taiwan, saying that in the event of a Chinese invasion, “Resupply is not an option.”

Lawmakers are pushing for the administration to deliver on a backlog of $19 billion in military sales to Taiwan,
with U.S. officials saying the delay in munitions delivery is related to production challenges across the board, from pandemic supply chain issues to dormant manufacturing streams.

The wargame identified long-range missiles as priority weapons for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a weapon rapidly used up in the event of a conflict.

“We run out of LRASMs [stealth anti-ship cruise missiles] quickly,” a source close to the committee told The Hill. “We need to boost munitions production yesterday. Defense industrial base issues must be solved immediately.”

Another key lesson from the game is the importance of coordination among allies and partners in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, to allow for U.S. military access to key jumping-off points, but also to prepare to put into action a coalition of like-minded states to oppose Chinese aggression.

“That — as we’ve seen with Ukraine — is possible,” Metrick said. “But it’s really hard and requires, to quote a former colleague, years of a punishing ground game, to use a football metaphor, of just constant engagement.”

Economic impacts of invasion​

Lawmakers also confronted global economic consequences of a possible Chinese invasion.

In the game, world markets are in tatters following sanctions imposed on China that cut it off from the SWIFT banking system — which allows for processing international transactions — and commercial shipping ceasing in the Taiwan Strait.

“No ships are going through the region, and supply chains are a complete mess,” the committee source said.


“There will be huge economic consequences for the world if China attacks Taiwan, and companies need to prepare for this. They are not planning for this scenario, and they need to be, or else they risk a dereliction of their fiduciary duties.”

Gallagher, in opening remarks ahead of the wargame, said the business community is not taking the threat of a Taiwan crisis seriously enough.

“I recently had a meeting with an executive from a leading financial services company who told me that the chance of a Taiwan conflict was ‘near-zero,’” he said.

“If the Chinese do invade Taiwan, any business or investor that is overly dependent on the Chinese market, including both suppliers and customers located there, will suffer. We want American businesses to deal with these risks responsibly, not stick their heads in the sand.”

 

jward

passin' thru

Ohio-class nuclear-powered submarine to visit S. Korea: Pentagon | Yonhap News Agency​





By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, April 27 (Yonhap) -- An Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic submarine (SSBN) will visit South Korea, a Pentagon spokesperson said Thursday, one day after the leaders of South Korea and the United States announced plans to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence provided to Seoul.

An Ohio-class submarine is the largest type of ballistic missile submarine currently operated by the U.S. Navy.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden announced ways to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence in an agreement, dubbed the "Washington Declaration," after holding a bilateral summit here Wednesday.

U.S. Department of Defense Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder is seen speaking during a daily press briefing at the Pentagon in Washington on April 27, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

U.S. administration officials earlier said a ballistic missile submarine will visit South Korea under the declaration designed to reaffirm U.S. commitment to the security of South Korea using all its military capabilities, including nuclear.
"It was an Ohio-class SSBN," Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said when asked whether an Ohio-class or a Virginia-class submarine was set to visit South Korea under the leaders' agreement.

The Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment on when the U.S. submarine may visit South Korea.
"We will continue to work very closely with the Republic of Korea when it comes to extended deterrence and fulfilling our obligations to provide security to South Korea as well as our allies partners," Ryder told a daily press briefing, referring to South Korea by its official name.
On the proposed launch of a Nuclear Consultative Group, a new mechanism designed to bolster nuclear policy cooperation between the allies, Ryder said the group will be headed by assistant secretary-level officials from the two countries.

"What we know right now is that the group will convened at the assistant secretary-level, but in terms of when the first meeting of the group will be held, I don't have any announcements today in regards to timing," he said.
bdk@yna.co.kr
 

jward

passin' thru

jward

passin' thru
Ben Lewis @OfficialBen_L
Defense Analyst focusing on PLA development and Taiwan security issues. Star Wars enthusiast. Views are my own. He/him. ️‍
Washington, DCdocs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
lots more in his 'report' if you are interested in a more comprehensive overview, in the documentation or raw data sets. Below is a sampling o' those things I found o' interest.


Ben Lewis
@OfficialBen_L

APRIL 2023 ADIZ REPORT
It’s the last day of the month, which means it's time for the monthly report on ADIZ violations.
April saw a number of important developments in PLA activity around Taiwan. This thread is very long and will be released in two sets.

The biggest story this month was President Tsai’s meeting with Speaker McCarthy in Los Angeles at the end of her U.S. transit and trip to Central America.
View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1652862307599282176?s=20


The meeting coincided with a visit to Beijing by French President Macron and EU Commissioner von der Leyen.
View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1652862309616762880?s=20


Now onto the data:

259 aircraft were tracked inside Taiwan's ADIZ this month, 184 more than in April 2022. This is the second-highest monthly total on record.
The highest monthly total on record is August 2022 with 446

April 10th saw the highest single-day total of violations with 54 aircraft. This is the second-highest single-day total on record.
The highest single-day total on record is 56 aircraft on 10/4/21.

As part of the large variety of aircraft tracked this month. Two airframes were tracked in the ADIZ for the first time ever. The KJ-200 (left) and J-15 (right).
View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1652871065276751872?s=20


Additionally, this month saw the first public tracking of a circumnavigation of Taiwan by a PLA aircraft (TB-001) on 4/27/2023.
View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1652871074458095618?s=20


Ben Lewis
@OfficialBen_L
51m

That concludes this month's report! April was a month of firsts and new records. The exercises from April 8-10 were not as large as what we saw in August but were still an extremely significant moment in the scheme of things.


9:27 PM · Apr 30, 2023
829
Views
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

XI JINPING’S WORST NIGHTMARE: A POTEMKIN PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY​

ANDREW SCOBELL
MAY 1, 2023
COMMENTARY

A worst-case Taiwan scenario for Chinese leader Xi Jinping would be a major military operation in which the People’s Liberation Army fails spectacularly or displays shocking incompetence akin to Russia’s in Ukraine. Could this happen?

The good news is that while China’s military has undergone major upgrades and has long been preparing for a Taiwan scenario, there are three significant reasons to doubt its prowess. First is the dysfunctionality of civil-military relations in a dictatorship. Second is the plausibility of existing insider critics. And third is the unreliable alchemy inherent in assessing combat effectiveness.

The bad news is that even if China’s armed forces fail spectacularly, this does not necessarily mean a shorter, less bloody, or less costly conflict. If the People’s Liberation Army stumbles badly, Xi is unlikely to call off his military. Where Taiwan is concerned Xi can be expected to press his armed forces to persist in the fight, producing a protracted conflict in the center of the Indo-Pacific and profoundly disrupting commerce and stability across the region.

Military Modernization: Targeting Taiwan

Even before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, senior U.S. officials and analysts were warning that Xi had accelerated his timeline for unification with Taiwan and prioritized the military means to attain it. The year 2027 is widely referenced and one prominent expert has dubbed the 2020s “the decade of living dangerously.” Of course, Xi, like his purported pal Putin, could decide to order his armed forces to launch a major military operation any time he chooses, and his generals would almost certainly obey. But most experts on China’s military consider a decision by commander-in-chief Xi to invade Taiwan unlikely in the near term, at least barring some dramatic change in the Chinese Communist Party’s calculus of regime security. Indeed, the 2027 date mentioned in Chinese documents appears to be a milestone to attain benchmarks in the military’s ongoing multi-decade modernization drive rather than a deadline for an attack on Taiwan.

Most knowledgeable analysts and outside observers are impressed by the major strides that the People’s Liberation Army has made in recent decades: significantly upgrading its platforms and weapon systems and substantially expanding power projection capabilities. While the roles and missions for China’s armed forces have expanded to encompass multiple contingencies, including out-of-area operations, their primary operational focus remains Taiwan. An important insight from the scholarship on complex bureaucracies is that when a system is laser-focused on one task, it can get remarkably good at this task relatively quickly. If the Chinese military’s consuming focus for decades has been realizing unification with Taiwan, then it has had a lot of time to devote toward planning, preparing, and practicing for this scenario.

But what if conventional wisdom regarding the People’s Liberation Army and its prowess is misplaced? A few years ago, asking this question would have seemed preposterous. But then, until recently, the consensus among experts was that the Russian military had been transformed over the past decade or so into a crack fighting force with a new doctrine and shiny new weapon systems. So where could things go wrong for Xi?

Civil-Military Disfunction in Dictatorships

Dictators face notable obstacles when it comes to ensuring the combat effectiveness of their armed forces. These generally manifest themselves in two problems: anxieties over allegiances and the dearth of reliable information. Because they are prone to paranoia, dictators tend to select and promote officers on the basis of their perceived personal allegiance rather than their records or qualities as commanders. It was this instinct that drove Xi to launch a major anti-corruption campaign in the earliest years of his tenure that resulted in hundreds of generals being ousted. While bribery and fraud undoubtedly constituted serious problems within the Chinese military, Xi’s campaign had all the hallmarks of a purge, allowing the commander-in-chief to sweep aside perceived opponents throughout the officer corps.

Prioritizing coup-proofing at the expense of readiness creates other problems too. Dictators prefer centralizing decisions on postings and promotions as well as troop movements in their own hands. They often establish multiple centers of military and/or paramilitary power to prevent any one military leader or bureaucratic entity from accumulating too much power and to encourage competition over cooperation among subordinates. This is one reason why Putin permitted the emergence of the Wagner Group. While not embracing private security companies to the same degree as Putin’s Russia, Chinese Communist Party leaders have long maintained a set of muscular internal-security apparatuses funded in recent years at a level exceeding China’s official national defense budget.

In China’s Leninist system, coup-proofing measures have been institutionalized across more than nine decades to maintain multiple mechanisms for ensuring party control of the People’s Liberation Army. These include an extensive network of political commissars and party committees that penetrate all levels of the military. Furthermore, all officers and most enlisted personnel are party members, reinforcing the political allegiance of men and women in uniform. Every member of the military has a political dossier that includes assessments of their reliability and attitude.

One of the most critical relationships for warfighting effectiveness in the Chinese system is that between political commissars and military commanders. While the commissar-commander link seems to function reasonably well in peacetime, the real stress test would be in time of war. The political commissar system performed well under wartime conditions many decades ago during the Chinese civil war of the 1940s and the Korean War of the early 1950s. But each of these long-ago conflicts was protracted and the commissar-commander partnership had time to evolve and adapt. In a Taiwan contingency, commissars and commanders would suddenly switch from familiar peacetime dynamics to the compressed urgency of unfamiliar wartime conditions. The battle rhythm of 21st-century informatized war is even more accelerated than 20th-century industrial-age combat.

A second problem for dictatorships is that reliable information is notoriously hard to come by. This is especially so for the dictator himself. Advisors and subordinates — whether civilian or military — tend to tell a dictator mostly what they think he wants to hear. Dispensing bad news to one’s superior is not deemed career-enhancing or life-prolonging. Indeed, speaking truth to power can be difficult even in the best of circumstances in any political system, but when the “power” is a ruthless dictator who wields absolute authority, the disincentives for a subordinate to be brutally honest are far greater.

In January 2022, for example, Putin seemed completely convinced that his armed forces were well-trained, well-equipped, well-led, and would acquit themselves well in a military operation against Ukraine. Why? Because no-one had led him to believe otherwise. Indeed, the Russian dictator had been beguiled by multiple subordinates employing elaborate ruses and charades. His generals had constructed a Potemkin military. Some 350 years earlier, Grigory Potemkin reportedly conjured up impressive facades in Crimea to hide the rural reality of dire poverty and dilapidated conditions from his sovereign, Catherine the Great. Putin, too, had visited showcase barracks and mess halls, witnessed precisely orchestrated field exercises, and watched impressively choreographed parades — all intended to hide the corrosive effects of corruption, fraud, and incompetence on a monumental scale.

Continued.....
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Continued.....

Taking China’s Internal Critics at Their Word

Surprisingly, China’s military leaders have spoken frankly and openly about the deficiencies they discern within their own armed forces. At least until recently. As Xi has tightened his iron grip over the armed forces, his handpicked generals are far more reticent than their predecessors to be naysayers or the bearers of bad news — consistent with the civil-military dysfunctionality diagnosed above. Moreover, Xi’s commander-in-chief hubris seems to have heightened as the military transformation he believes he has wrought continues apace. For a decade, Xi has directed and sustained sizeable defense investment along with an unprecedented and thoroughgoing organizational overhaul. Now, few if any generals are brave enough to tell China’s dictator that his sweeping military reforms are not as transformative as he hopes.

Previously, though, Chinese officers and analysts have been quite blunt about the flaws and weaknesses they see in their own military. Of course, at least some of this discourse could be deception or disinformation. But the best evidence of sincerity is that these criticisms have inspired real reform efforts. Xi himself identified severe problems in the military — in addition to the rampant corruption targeted at the outset of his tenure as commander-in-chief — and determined that a thoroughgoing response was urgently needed. As a result, within a few years of taking office, Xi had initiated the most comprehensive organizational reforms of China’s national defense establishment in three decades. What Xi appeared to take to heart was what generals had dubbed the “two incompatibles.” This refers to the assessment that China’s military had yet to reach the level of modernization necessary to be victorious in information-age war and had yet to acquire the capabilities to undertake operations to successfully prosecute a 21st-century conflict.

Military modernization is often understood with reference to acquiring and mastering high-technology weapon systems. But this is only one piece in a complex puzzle. What Xi and forward-looking Chinese generals understood was that if China wants to become a “world-class military,” high-tech weaponry is not sufficient. The military would need to fundamentally restructure itself to streamline chains of command and enable different services to operate together seamlessly. Indeed, this collective concern about the condition of China’s armed forces did trigger a monumental effort to trim bureaucracies, shrink staffs, and push the People’s Liberation Army to operate more as a single joint force and less as separate services.

These reforms, launched in 2016, abolished four massive general departments and two overstaffed military regions to centralize authority in the Central Military Commission. General departments became offices and bureaus directly subordinate to the commission, while seven military regions were consolidated into five theater commands, with four of them reconfigured, with the goal of making each better able to execute joint warfighting in a specific geographic theater.

Yet, in the aftermath of these thoroughgoing reforms and the billions spent on new weaponry, naysayers are finding it harder to be heard and easier to be ignored. In the current stultifying atmosphere of the “chairman responsibility system,” China’s military will find it much more difficult to learn and adapt because those naysayers have now been silenced.

The Alchemy of Combat Effectiveness

Dysfunction and doubts aside, what is the secret for success in war? The specific recipe for combat-effective armed forces is rather mysterious, and you can’t simply bet on the side with the most fancy weapons. The commissioning of vast quantities of new aircraft and seacraft in China’s armed forces in recent years is certainly impressive. It commands the greatest attention at home and abroad and is straightforward to identify and quantify. But system specifications and inventories do not by themselves ensure success in battle. Other “soft” factors, such as quality of personnel, effectiveness of training, morale, and command-and-control culture are also extremely important, yet difficult to measure. Moreover, meaningful combat effectiveness is the result of multiple elements all combining as a whole. To be effective, a military not only needs sound doctrine, organization, weaponry, personnel training, logistics and culture, but also needs each of these components to blend together.

Veteran Chinese military expert Roger Cliff identifies “a fundamental mismatch between the [People’s Liberation Army’s] doctrine and organizational culture.” Central to this mismatch is a rigid command culture of tight control. Typically, the term “command and control” refers to a key facet of any military organization. In the case of the People’s Liberation Army, however, it is more accurate to reverse the word order to highlight the emphasis placed upon “control” over “command.”

China’s military command culture is highly centralized and top down — a subordinate is expected to follow the orders of a superior to the letter. By contrast, the culture in the U.S. armed forces is quite different, with superiors who expect subordinates to exercise professional judgement on how best to implement the “commander’s intent.” A prerequisite for the more flexible culture is a high level of trust and confidence in the abilities and judgment of junior officers. Effectiveness in 21st-century warfare tends to favor a military culture that encourages flexibility, adaptability, individual initiative, and decentralized decision-making at lower levels. The comments of Chinese officers suggest that this is recognized and efforts are being made to change the culture. As a staff officer at the headquarters of the East Sea Fleet commented in 2017: “The lower the level of command, the stronger our commanding ability is, and the more we can adapt to the needs of operations.” Two years earlier, a navy commander lamented the “complex command hierarchies and long preparation times” bedeviling Gulf of Aden counter-piracy operations, but then noted approvingly a culture shift underway from “commanded from above” to “independent command.”

The best way to gauge combat effectiveness is to see how a military performs in actual combat. Yet, the People’s Liberation Army has not conducted a major combat operation since 1979 and has not executed large-scale amphibious landings since 1950. The former, a limited but high-intensity ground campaign against Vietnam, was not a resounding success; the latter, an invasion of Hainan to capture the island from Kuomintang forces, was successful but executed against disorganized resistance. Both experiences were many decades ago. While the Chinese military has a range of more contemporary operational experiences — not including short but sharp skirmishes in the South China Sea and in the high Himalayas — these have all been non-combat and mostly small scale. These include multiple U.N. peacekeeping missions, ongoing counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, disaster relief operations, and the evacuation of Chinese citizens from locations such as Yemen in 2015 and Sudan in April 2023. China’s most significant evacuation operation was in 2011 from Libya, but the military only played a peripheral role: Of the total of 35,860 Chinese nationals evacuated, less than 5 percent — 1,700 people — were transported on military aircraft. The vast majority came out of Libya via commercial ships and aircraft.

Of course, the U.S. military has not conducted major combat operations since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Yet all services have engaged in multiple high-intensity smaller-scale operations in the intervening years, so we have a better sense of how America’s armed forces might perform.

Conclusion

The specter of a Potemkin military being exposed during a military attack on Taiwan is neither a safe assumption nor a reason for reassurance. No one — including Xi — knows for sure how China’s military will perform in a Taiwan contingency. It is only prudent to assume the People’s Liberation Army will execute such an operation credibly, although probably not flawlessly. Yet, spectacular failure — or a Ukraine-sized snafu — is no longer inconceivable. Such an outcome would cause China’s commander-in-chief personal humiliation, and could provoke a domestic political-military crisis and/or propel Beijing to escalate. As the world has witnessed in Ukraine, a dictator shocked by a very public display of gross incompetence by his military may react in a range of worrisome ways. This includes — but is not limited to — threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

In the final analysis, even an unsuccessful Chinese military operation against Taiwan would send seismic geostrategic shockwaves across the Indo-Pacific region and around the world. A botched Chinese attack would bring small consolation to the island itself and likely elevate cross-strait tensions for decades to come. Moreover, China’s relations with great powers and small powers alike, notably the United States, would be irreparably damaged. As I have argued elsewhere, a failed invasion would still trigger a new Cold War.

While revealing a Potemkin People’s Liberation Army would obviously be an operational catastrophe for China, it would also generate strategic-level blowback and severe second-order effects that could adversely impact not just China but also Taiwan, the United States, and other Indo-Pacific states. Of course, it is possible that Taiwan’s military — despite concerted defense reforms — could also underperform. We have no real basis to assess its combat effectiveness, because Taiwanese forces have not seen actual combat in many, many decades. Yet, in the final analysis, this possibility will factor far less into Xi’s war-making calculus than his assessment of the capabilities and reaction times of the U.S. armed forces. And China’s commander-in-chief harbors no illusions that America’s is a Potemkin military.

However well or poorly China’s military might perform, the geostrategic implications would not constitute a big win for anyone. In the unlikely event that China’s military performs spectacularly well and swiftly achieves operational success, this victory would stun the region and prompt a major geopolitical realignment, but not necessarily in ways that would all favor Beijing. If the People’s Liberation Army were to stumble seriously or fail spectacularly in a military operation against Taiwan, Xi would be unlikely to throw in the towel. A major setback would almost certainly generate a protracted war in the center of the Indo-Pacific that would seriously disrupt regional shipping lanes, commercial air travel, and supply chains. As a result, prolonged conflict over Taiwan would be far more disruptive than the ongoing war in Ukraine, both regionally and globally.

Andrew Scobell is a distinguished fellow in the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and an adjunct professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His recent publications include Crossing the Strait: China Prepares for War with Taiwan (National Defense University Press, 2022) and U.S.-China Signaling, Action-Reaction Dynamics, and Taiwan: A Preliminary Analysis (U.S. Institute of Peace, 2022).
 

jward

passin' thru

Axios World: Taiwan crisis preparations​



A blue ball of yarn with patches of green yarn; a model of earth.

Welcome back to Axios World.
  • I just realized this newsletter turned five years old last month. I'm so honored that so many of you seem to find it valuable.
  • Now on to the news. We start tonight (1,710 words, 6½ minutes) with a special report on how U.S. allies are preparing for a potential Taiwan crisis, with reporting from myself, Han Chen and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian in Taipei.

1 big thing: U.S. allies prepare for possibility of war over Taiwan​

1682976468920.jpg

Soldiers from the Philippines during joint exercises with the U.S. last month. Photo: Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images
A war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would be a nightmare scenario for America's allies in the Pacific, but it’s becoming increasingly clear what roles they might play if one breaks out.
The big picture: French President Emmanuel Macron declared last month that Europe should not get “caught up in crises that are not ours,” such as the escalation over Taiwan sparked by U.S.-China rivalry. U.S. allies in the region don’t have that luxury.
  • The U.S. has no formal commitment to defend Taiwan, but President Biden has repeatedly said that Washington would intervene.
  • A Taiwan crisis could take several forms short of an all-out invasion — a blockade, cyber warfare, or attacks on offshore islands. In any contingency, U.S. allies in the region would play a critical role.
Driving the news: Philippines President Bongbong Marcos visited the White House today, shortly after the largest-ever version of annual U.S.-Philippines military drills. For the first time, the war games focused in part on securing the 7o-mile wide channel between the Philippines' northern islands and Taiwan.
  • As U.S. and Filipino forces rehearsed for potential conflict with China, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Manila and urged the Philippines — a U.S. treaty ally that moved closer to Beijing under Marcos' predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte — against "picking sides."
Earlier this year, Marcos granted the U.S. access to four new bases, three of which are in the north and face Taiwan.
  • Beijing's ambassador to Manila, Huang Xilian, declared in April that Washington clearly planned to use the bases to "interfere in the situation across the Taiwan Strait." Huang accused the Philippines of "stoking the fire" rather than prioritizing the security of its 150,000 overseas workers in Taiwan — comments some interpreted as a veiled threat.
  • Ahead of his visit to Washington, Marcos said the bases were for collective defense not "offensive operations," and his country will not become a military "staging post."
  • Asked whether the U.S. could use the bases in the event of war with China, a senior U.S. official told reporters Sunday, "We're careful not to go through scenarios in public."
Between the lines: The Philippines' location would make it highly significant in any Taiwan crisis.
  • "At the end of that day it's about access," says Eddie Paruchabutr, an Atlantic Council fellow and former U.S. Army strategic planner who served in the Philippines. "Without the Philippines, we'd have a lot less options."
  • U.S. forces could be left "floating around in the ocean" and vulnerable to Chinese missiles without access to airfields and ports in the Philippines, he says.

Note: The Philippines also granted the U.S. access to a fourth base to the south on the South China Sea. Data: Axios Research; Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios

Meanwhile, U.S. military facilities in Okinawa have served as staging grounds for U.S. operations from Vietnam to Afghanistan, and would likely play a central role in any Taiwan crisis — making Japan complicit from Beijing's perspective even if it took no other action.
  • But Tokyo is making its own plans. In addition to stepping up cooperation with Washington, Japan is also undertaking its biggest defense spending hike in decades.
Japan is widely seen by analysts as the most likely U.S. ally to contribute troops to defend Taiwan.
  • Japan's constitution limits its highly advanced military to self-defense, but some in Tokyo argue that an invasion of Taiwan would cross the threshold of endangering Japan’s survival.
  • While Japan is unlikely to explicitly commit to defending Taiwan, "there are ways to signal to Beijing that it can't assume Japan would remain on the sidelines," says David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Those include improving command and control systems and interoperability with the U.S. forces, he says.

Part II: The view from Australia and South Korea​

1682976633781.jpg

U.S. paratroopers during a joint exercise in Australia. Photo: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images
Australia's geography would also make it a critical hub from which the U.S. could resupply its forces and launch operations.
  • "The role for Australia in a Taiwan contingency is highly unlikely to be at the front line in the Taiwan Strait," says Ashley Townshend, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment based in Sydney.
  • But Canberra is deepening military ties with Washington and recently announced major investments in upgrading its northern military bases and in procuring nuclear submarines under the AUKUS framework.
  • In a Taiwan crisis, Australia would likely be responsible for securing sea lanes and tracking Chinese vessels across a wide geographic area, and might take on tasks like escorting U.S. bombers en route to the Taiwan Strait, Townshend says.
South Korea has also increased its military spending and cooperation with the U.S., and Korean officials have held discussions with the Pentagon about Taiwan-related contingencies. Still, Seoul's overwhelming focus remains on North Korea.
  • Partially for that reason, South Korea would be unlikely to consider sending troops into the Taiwan Strait. But the U.S. could pull some of its own 30,000-strong contingent out of Korea, and would likely expect Seoul to play a key support role.
  • That could leave Seoul exposed to retaliation from China, and more vulnerable to North Korea.
  • State of play: South Korean officials have tended in the past to tiptoe around the Taiwan issue, but President Yoon Suk-yeoul sparked anger from Beijing last month by saying Taiwan's security was "not simply an issue between China and Taiwan" but a "global issue," like North Korea.
Then there’s Europe.
  • The U.K. and France have naval presences in the Pacific, though neither has committed to defending Taiwan.
  • A French official told Axios they expect the U.S. would be more focused on how Europe could hit China economically in the event of a Taiwan crisis. China-EU trade was worth $732 billion last year.
  • Macron, meanwhile, argues that U.S. hawkishness risks bringing a Taiwan crisis closer — a concern other allies share ahead of the 2024 election.
The bottom line: "We’re all worried," Townshend says of the intersection between U.S. politics and Taiwan escalation. "The whole region."
BREAKING: U.S allies are preparing for the possibility of war over Taiwan - Axios

Only a World War can save the DNC's 2024 sElection

View: https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1653183607534505989?t=09MO4elYq1LemtyCrx2dSw&s=19
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
China activates conscription law to prep for potential war with Taiwan
New conscription law targets veterans, students with high-tech skills
2972
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/02 15:00

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China on Monday (May 1) launched its new conscription law in preparation for a potential war with Taiwan.

China's newly revised "Regulations on the Recruitment of Soldiers," which allow retired soldiers to re-enlist in order to ensure that experienced officers and soldiers will serve in the time of war, went into effect on Monday. The revised conscription regulations also focus on recruiting tech-savvy science and engineering students for new areas of operations such as space and cyber, showing China's attempt to prepare for a possible full invasion of Taiwan.

The State Council and the Central Military Commission, the highest decision-making body of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), announced last month that the new regulations on conscription were formulated in accordance with its "Military Service Law." According to China's state-run mouthpiece Xinhua News, the revised conscription regulations consist of 74 articles in 11 chapters that focus on "recruiting more high-caliber soldiers, standardizing and optimizing conscription procedures, and improving the system's efficiency."

The new conscription regulations allow veterans to rejoin the army, return to their old units or perform previous duties, making it easier for the nearly 2 million-strong PLA to acquire experienced personnel, reported Nikkei Asia. Another provision makes it easier for the military to recruit personnel in emergency situations, allowing the government to adjust the conditions and methods of recruitment according to the type of personnel needed, and to enable its transportation corps to prioritize the movement of troops for rapid deployments.

The changes reflect China's "concerns about a possible conflict over Taiwan," according to the news agency. A full-fledged land, sea, and air campaign would likely require the mobilization of retired and active-duty military personnel.

Seasoned crews who can operate weapons and sonar on military vessels, as well as fighter pilots, are particularly valuable because it takes time to train new highly skilled personnel.

China has continuously strengthened its military capabilities in recent years, especially on land and sea. The PLA has expanded its fleet of amphibious assault ships, submarines, and bombers.

A third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was also launched in June last year. Operating these new armaments will require more high-tech-savvy troops.

Another focus of the revised conscription regulations is college students. The new law allows colleges to draft students, particularly science and engineering students who have been trained in high-tech areas such as artificial intelligence and robotics to engage in warfare that makes use of satellites, cyber, and drones.

The PLA is also fixated on developing cognitive warfare that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) among other technologies.

In addition, according to a report by the Voice of America (VOA), the "Reservists Law of the People's Republic of China" implemented on March 1 is widely regarded by the outside world as the expansion of conscription and preparations for the war against Taiwan. Many provinces and cities in China have established national defense mobilization offices.

Experts believe that this is part of the Chinese government’s efforts to improve its ability to transform from peacetime to wartime, and it will help strengthen the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) centralized control over grassroots recruitment and national defense mobilization. However, the report stated that there is still a long way to go before a comprehensive wartime system that can support an invasion of Taiwan is established.





 

jward

passin' thru
Washington Examiner
@dcexaminer
34s

.@SenSchumer and top Democrats are drafting a new proposal that intends to address competition with China and prepare a plan to combat aggression against Taiwan.
View: https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1653883574045614100?s=20



 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan says F-16 deliveries delayed, working to minimise damage​

Reuters



TAIPEI, May 4 (Reuters) - Taiwan Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Thursday that the delivery of 66 advanced new F-16Vs from the United States has been delayed due to supply chain disruptions and the ministry was working to minimise the damage and "make up deficiencies".

The United States in 2019 approved an $8 billion sale of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, a deal that would take the island's F-16 fleet to more than 200 jets, the largest in Asia, to strengthen its defences in the face of a stepped up threat from China, which claims Taiwan as its own.


Taiwan has been converting 141 F-16A/B jets into the F-16V type and has in addition ordered 66 new F-16Vs, which have new avionics, weapons and radar systems to better face down the Chinese air force, including its J-20 stealth fighter.

The first of the new F-16Vs was meant to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year but that has been delayed to the third quarter of next year due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, the ministry said.

Speaking to reporters at parliament, Chiu said Taiwan had asked the United States to "make up the deficiency", including prioritising spare part deliveries for the existing fleet.


"Multiple channels are being used, and we are minimising the damage from this," he said, adding they still expected to get the full order delivered before 2026.

The ministry is using diplomatic channels, such as via the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei, to resolve the problem, Chiu said.

Neither the de facto embassy, the American Institute in Taiwan, nor Lockheed Martin immediately responded to a request for comment.

Taiwan has since last year complained of delays to U.S. weapons deliveries, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, as manufacturers turn supplies to Ukraine as it battles invading Russian forces, and the issue has concerned U.S. lawmakers.

Michael McCaul, chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, said during a visit to Taipei last month he was doing everything possible to speed up arms deliveries.


Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Robert Birsel
 

jward

passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
1h

Taiwan will treat Chinese drone or jet incursions into its airspace as a “first strike,” defense minister says.


Taiwan to Treat Chinese Drone Incursions as ‘First Strike,’ Says Defense Chief

Policy applies to more narrow 12-nautical-mile perimeter
Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu says there is ‘no wish for war’

Chiu Kuo-cheng
Chiu Kuo-chengPhotographer: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
By Cindy Wang and Low De Wei
May 4, 2023, 10:11 AM UTC


Taiwan will treat Chinese drone or jet incursions into its airspace as a “first strike,” its defense chief said, amid rising concerns over Beijing’s strategy of flying unmanned surveillance craft around the island.

The ministry “does not wish for war to break out in the Taiwan Strait, which will be very tragic,” Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said in response to questions from lawmakers on Thursday.

rest behind paywall- and it's not clear just how narrow the zone is, if they're not intending to apply to it the full 12 miles.
..can we stop living in interesting times for a bit, it's given me a grey hair n tummy ache..
 

jward

passin' thru
US says China prefers peaceful annexation of Taiwan
ODNI says cross-strait conflict would have severe impact on global economy

By Kelvin Chen, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/05/05 11:09
Director of U.S. National Intelligence Avril Haines.



TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) still favors non-combative means to annex Taiwan, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Thursday (May 4) at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on global threats.

Commenting on Senator Rick Scott’s concern about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, Haines said, “We continue to assess that Xi would prefer to achieve unification of Taiwan through peaceful means.” However, “the reality is that he has directed his military to provide him with the military option, essentially to be able to take it without concern of (U.S.) intervention,” she said.

This factor affects Xi's ability and decision-making to attack Taiwan, Haines added.

Regarding the potential impact of China's aggression toward Taiwan on the U.S. economy, Haines said the extent depends on the situation at the time and that she cannot provide an accurate prediction at present. She also said if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is hindered from normal operations, there would be “an enormous global financial impact that will run somewhere between US$600 billion (NT$18.4 trillion) to over US$1 trillion on an annual basis for the first several years on the global financial economy.”

In terms of U.S.-China relations, Haines said that the relationship is becoming increasingly challenging, and Xi’s speech in March accusing the U.S. of suppressing China is his most direct public criticism of the country to date. This demonstrates that Xi has long been distrustful of the U.S. and firmly believes it is trying to contain China, reflecting Beijing's increasing pessimism about U.S.-China relations, she said.

Meanwhile, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier said that Xi has been responsible for promoting China's rise for many years and has become increasingly aggressive in his speeches since his third term began. There are different possible timelines for when China may attack Taiwan, including 2025, 2027, 2035, and 2049, but how to interpret them varies depending on the individual, Berrier said.

He said Xi has ordered the military to be prepared, but it is unclear for what or when. The Defense Intelligence Agency is closely monitoring the situation and analyzing every word Xi says, Berrier said.
 
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