ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

J

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
T

Troke

On TB every waking moment
While in St Petersburg right after Putin took over, a Russian historian told me to never forget that Putin is KGB and KGB is a life style.

She also said Russia is a country whose history cannot be predicted. She studied history under Stalin, Khrushchev and Gorbechev, all different. I thought it hilarious.

Since then we started rewriting our history, thus joining those countries whose history cannot be predicted. I don't find it funny any more.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic

NATO to accelerate deployment of up to 300,000 soldiers on eastern border​

b5029fff62112207afdb266fe6c07576

37
Ukrainska Pravda
Sun, March 19, 2023 at 5:47 AM EDT·2 min read


In the coming months, NATO will intensify its efforts to concentrate weapons along the eastern border of the alliance and to allocate tens of thousands of soldiers who can go to help allies at a moment's notice.
Source: European Pravda, citing Politico

Details: For this to happen, however, NATO must convince individual countries to provide various elements: soldiers, training, infrastructure improvements, and, most importantly, large quantities of expensive weapons, equipment, and ammunition.
With countries already worried about their ammunition stockpiles and Ukraine in dire need of additional shells and weapons from its allies, there is a risk that not all NATO allies will fulfil their promises to contribute to the alliance's new plans.
According to the news outlet, military leaders will present updated regional defence plans designed to help redefine how the alliance protects its 1 billion citizens this spring.
Troop levels will be significant: officials say up to 300,000 NATO troops will be needed to implement the new model.
According to Heinrich Brauss, a former NATO assistant secretary general for defence policy and force planning, the first echelon, which could consist of about 100,000 soldiers ready to deploy within 10 days, could be formed from Poland, Norway and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). It could also include multinational battle groups that the Alliance has already established on its eastern flank.
A second echelon of troops would support these soldiers, ready to deploy from countries like Germany within 10 to 30 days.
But the process could prove difficult because such a rapid deployment, even within a month, requires a lot of people, equipment, training, and lots of money.
When NATO's military plans are ready, capitals will be asked to weigh in, and ultimately provide troops, planes, ships and tanks for different parts of the plan.
"We are asking the nations — based on the findings we have out of our three regional plans — what we need to make these plans … executable," said the senior NATO military official.
Some Allies have already recognised that much more investment will be needed to meet NATO's needs. NATO to accelerate deployment of up to 300,000 soldiers on eastern border
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic

NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?​

Allies are worrying about dwindling war chests just as NATO seeks commitments for new stockpiles and troops along the eastern flank.
POLAND-LITHUANIA-NATO-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY-DEFENCE-SUWALKI GAP

Polish and Romanian soldiers stand next to military vehicles and a NATO flag near Szypliszki village, located in the so-called Suwalki Gap | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

BY LILI BAYER
MARCH 18, 2023 2:19 AM CET
7 MINUTES READ

BRUSSELS — Add NATO’s military planners to the list of those concerned about having enough shells.
In the coming months, the alliance will accelerate efforts to stockpile equipment along the alliance’s eastern edge and designate tens of thousands of forces that can rush to allies’ aid on short notice — a move meant to stop Russia from expanding its war beyond Ukraine.
To make that happen, though, NATO must convince individual countries to contribute various elements: Soldiers, training, better infrastructure — and, most notably, extensive amounts of pricey weapons, equipment and ammunition.
With countries already worried about their own munitions stockpiles and Ukraine in acute need of more shells and weapons from allies, there is a risk that not all NATO allies will live up to their promises to contribute to the alliance’s new plans.

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“If there’s not somebody hosting the potluck and telling everybody what to bring, then everyone would bring potato chips because potato chips are cheap, easy to get,” said James J. Townsend Jr., a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy.
“Nations,” he added, “would rather bring potato chips.”
It’s a challenge NATO has faced in the past, and one that experts fear could become a persistent problem for the Western alliance as Russia’s war drags into a second year. While the U.S. and EU are making plans to source more weapons — fast — the restocking process will inevitably take time.
That could run into NATO’s aspirations. Military leaders this spring will submit updated regional defense plans intended to help redefine how the alliance protects its 1 billion citizens.
The numbers will be large, with officials floating the idea of up to 300,000 NATO forces needed to help make the new model work. That means lots of coordinating and cajoling.
“I think you need forces to counter a realistic Russia,” said one senior NATO military official, underscoring the need for significantly “more troops” and especially more forces at “readiness.”

A push for ‘readiness’​

There are several tiers of “readiness.”
The first tier — which may consist of about 100,000 soldiers prepared to move within 10 days — could be drawn from Poland, Norway and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), said Heinrich Brauß, a former NATO assistant secretary general for defense policy and force planning. It may also include multinational battlegroups the alliance has already set up in the eastern flank.
GettyImages-696563240-1024x683.jpg
Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe in Orzysz, Poland | Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images
A second tier of troops would then back up those soldiers, ready to deploy from countries like Germany in between 10 to 30 days.
But the process could get tricky. Why? Because moving so quickly, even given a month, requires lots of people, equipment and training — and lots of money.
Some militaries will have to up their recruitment efforts. Many allies will have to increase defense spending. And everyone will have to buy more weapons, ammunition and equipment.
Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, said that “readiness” is “basically, do you have all the stuff you’re supposed to have to do the mission assigned to a unit of a particular size?”
“An artillery battalion needs to shoot X number of rounds per year for planning purposes in order to maintain its level of proficiency,” he said. A tank battalion needs to hit targets, react to different situations and “demonstrate proficiency on the move, day and night, hitting targets that are moving.”
“It’s all very challenging,” he said, pointing to the need for training ranges and ammunition, as well as maintaining proficiency as personnel changes over time. “This obviously takes time and it’s also expensive.”
And that’s if countries can even find companies to produce quality bullets quickly.
“We have tended to try to stockpile munitions on the cheap … it’s just grossly inadequate,” said Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security. “I think the problems that our allies have in NATO are even more acute because many of them often rely on the U.S. as sort of the backstop.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, meanwhile, has repeatedly said that allies have stepped up work on production in recent months — and that the alliance is working on new requirements for ammunition stockpiles.
But he has also acknowledged the problem.
“The current rate of consumption compared to the current rate of production of ammunition,” he said in early March, “is not sustainable.”

The big test​

Once NATO’s military plans are done, capitals will be asked to weigh in — and eventually make available troops, planes, ships and tanks for different parts of the blueprints.
A test for NATO will come this summer when leaders of the alliance’s 30 member countries meet in Lithuania.
GettyImages-1467436141-1024x683.jpg
German soldiers give directions to M983 HEMTT mounted with a Patriot launcher in Zamosc, Poland | Omar Marques via Getty Images
“We are asking the nations — based on the findings we have out of our three regional plans — what we need to make these plans … executable,” said the senior NATO military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive planning.
“I think the most difficult thing,” the official added, “is the procurement.”
Some allies have already acknowledged that meeting NATO’s needs will take far more investment.
“More speed is needed, whether in terms of material, personnel or infrastructure,” German Colonel André Wüstner, head of the independent Armed Forces Association, told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag.
The German military, for instance, is carrying out its assigned missions, he said, “but that is nothing compared to what we will have to contribute to NATO in the future.”
And while Berlin now has a much-touted €100 billion modernization fund for upgrading Germany’s military, not a single cent of the money has been spent so far, German Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces Eva Högl said earlier this week.
Underpinning the readiness issue is a contentious debate over defense investments.
In 2014, NATO leaders pledged to aim to spend 2 percent of their economic output on defense within a decade. At the Vilnius summit in July, the leaders will have to decide on a new target.
“Two percent as floor” seems to be the “center of gravity” in the debate at the moment, said one senior NATO official, while cautioning that “2 percent would not be enough for everybody.”
A second issue is the contribution balance. Officials and experts expect the majority of high-readiness troops to come from European allies. But that means European capitals will need to step up as Washington contemplates how to address challenges from China.
The response will show whether NATO is serious about matching its ambitions.
“It’s hard to make sure you remain at the top of your military game during peace when there’s not a threat,” said Townsend, the former U.S. official. NATO, he said, is “in the middle” of a stress test.
“We’re all saying the right things,” he added. “But will we come through at the end of the day and do the right thing? Or are we going to try to get away with bringing potato chips to the potluck? The jury’s out.” NATO is racing to arm its Russian borders. Can it find the weapons?
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
danielboon said:

NATO to accelerate deployment of up to 300,000 soldiers on eastern border​

b5029fff62112207afdb266fe6c07576

37
Ukrainska Pravda
Sun, March 19, 2023 at 5:47 AM EDT·2 min read


In the coming months, NATO will intensify its efforts to concentrate weapons along the eastern border of the alliance and to allocate tens of thousands of soldiers who can go to help allies at a moment's notice.
Source: European Pravda, citing Politico
Details: For this to happen, however, NATO must convince individual countries to provide various elements: soldiers, training, infrastructure improvements, and, most importantly, large quantities of expensive weapons, equipment, and ammunition.
With countries already worried about their ammunition stockpiles and Ukraine in dire need of additional shells and weapons from its allies, there is a risk that not all NATO allies will fulfil their promises to contribute to the alliance's new plans.
According to the news outlet, military leaders will present updated regional defence plans designed to help redefine how the alliance protects its 1 billion citizens this spring.
Troop levels will be significant: officials say up to 300,000 NATO troops will be needed to implement the new model.
According to Heinrich Brauss, a former NATO assistant secretary general for defence policy and force planning, the first echelon, which could consist of about 100,000 soldiers ready to deploy within 10 days, could be formed from Poland, Norway and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). It could also include multinational battle groups that the Alliance has already established on its eastern flank.
A second echelon of troops would support these soldiers, ready to deploy from countries like Germany within 10 to 30 days.
But the process could prove difficult because such a rapid deployment, even within a month, requires a lot of people, equipment, training, and lots of money.
When NATO's military plans are ready, capitals will be asked to weigh in, and ultimately provide troops, planes, ships and tanks for different parts of the plan.
"We are asking the nations — based on the findings we have out of our three regional plans — what we need to make these plans … executable," said the senior NATO military official.
Some Allies have already recognised that much more investment will be needed to meet NATO's needs. NATO to accelerate deployment of up to 300,000 soldiers on eastern border
Click to expand...
If you don't have the "manpower" you have to substitute "firepower". But if you do that your opponent has to be convinced that you're more than willing to use it. Merde....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab
3h

Russian forces are closing in on Avdiivka. Nonstop shelling near Kamianka and rumors of urban combat in the 9th quarter suggest the pocket may be on the verge of collapse.
Positions here (on both sides) are incredibly fortified. Many pre-date 2015: especially in the south near Opytne.

jward said:
AZ
@AZgeopolitics

25m
⚔️Regarding the situation in Avdevka.

After the success at Krasnohorivka and Stepove, Russian Army, on the one hand, are probing the possibilities of advancing to Orlivka,Orlivka is the key , through which the main supply flows of the Avdeevka grouping go.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637777261460897792
View: https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1637777261460897792?s=20

Probing the AFU defense in the south of Avdeevka can serve both the purposes of stretching the AFU defense, and an attempt to find a slack in the enemy's formation, as it was in Soledar, where "Wagner" was able to find such a vulnerability.
Heavy fighting to the northwest of Avdeevka in the area of Stepove is confirmed. Battle for the encirclement of Avdeevka keeps going..
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Zhang Meifang张美芳
@CGMeifangZhang
2m

China government official
Russia becomes China’s top oil supplier in Jan-Feb, shipping about 15.68m tons of crude oil to China, official data showed. Experts expect more broad bilateral cooperation in energy sector.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:
The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab
3h

Russian forces are closing in on Avdiivka. Nonstop shelling near Kamianka and rumors of urban combat in the 9th quarter suggest the pocket may be on the verge of collapse.
Positions here (on both sides) are incredibly fortified. Many pre-date 2015: especially in the south near Opytne.
Click to expand...
9th Quarter? They are in it for the long game.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
10m

Chinese president Xi: China is prepared to defend world order alongside Russia in accordance with international law.
 
von Koehler

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
For what it's worth Martin Armstrong AI program Socrates is predicting WWIII starting in 2025 and lasting to 2027.

He hints that it will start in Ukraine but hasn't given any details.
 
Last edited:
von Koehler

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Unfortunately for us, Socrates has always been correct in it's past predictions.

Personally, I am not willing to bet against it but you do as you think best.

We will know soon enough.
 
T

TFergeson

Non Solum Simul Stare
von Koehler said:
Unfortunately for us, Socrates has always been correct in it's past predictions.

Personally, I am not willing to bet against it but you do as you think best.

We will know soon enough.
Click to expand...

I concur, however I do not think Socrates would be wrong per se. Clif High is having a similar issue, where he is not wrong, his predictions are just happening much faster than he thought. He talked about it on one of his shows last week, where it looks like his predictions are happening 6 months sooner than what his computers are predicting (for instance, he predicted banking issues and CBDC end of this year).
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
TFergeson said:
I concur, however I do not think Socrates would be wrong per se. Clif High is having a similar issue, where he is not wrong, his predictions are just happening much faster than he thought. He talked about it on one of his shows last week, where it looks like his predictions are happening 6 months sooner than what his computers are predicting (for instance, he predicted banking issues and CBDC end of this year).
Click to expand...
And in the past, they were often as much as ten years too early. So they can be worth looking at, but they are both still tough to read and decipher. With timing being the most difficult part of all.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
John Deere Girl said:
The US could default in June, but yet the government has enough money to send this welfare queen more money. What a freaking joke!
Click to expand...

This shows at least some of the FJB criminal gang realize just how bad it will be when Ukraine is thrown under the bus and Russia takes what it wants of Ukraine.

The Ukraine debacle and results will make the Afghanistan debacle and results look like child's play in comparison.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Russia Big Gains Bakhmut, UK MoD Alarmed Avdeevka; West Stakes All Kiev Offensive; Xi Jinping Moscow​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEGp5k4Nw1U

Run time - 1:13:31
Mar 20, 2023

(time line from comments)

TIME STAMPS

- Intro 00:00

- Battlefield 03:43

--- Bakhmut 04:26

--- Ukrainian counter attack 12:45

--- Avdiivka 15:40

--- UK MoD report on Avdiivka 20:15

--- Ukraine heavier losses on balance 24:55

--- South Ukraine initiatives 29:10

- Vlad. Rogov tactical report on South 34:38

- Ukraine AF demands modern F16 aircraft 39:10

- EU wants to supply 1 MIO shells this year 43:40

- Responsible state craft sounding alarms - implications 49:24

- Financial repercussions of failing war 01:02:30
 
A

Abert

Veteran Member
Hfcomms said:
NATO collectively is going to be out of ammunition and supplies by that point. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel as it is to send into the Ukrainian meat grinder.
Click to expand...
That is the big problem - as in the 70's the US / NATO would likely need to use Nukes to make up the difference.
That was the only way they could have stopped the Soviet Armor back then. Today Russia is outproducing the US & NATO in terms of war materials plus the wild card - CHINA - could easily provide arms and ammo if they go full in on support.
Were that to happen - as in the 70's - Nukes would be the only option for the US / NATO.
Problem is Russia has quite a few more tactical Nukes and the hyper-sonic missiles to deliver them to the battle field.
Once tactical Nukes start flying - only a matter of time till the BIG ones are released.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hfcomms said:
NATO collectively is going to be out of ammunition and supplies by that point. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel as it is to send into the Ukrainian meat grinder.
Click to expand...
That is what the MSM has been saying. We are all assuming that this is completely correct. They've been marketing disinformation to the masses for years so why not this as well?
 
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