GOV/MIL There is a "Real Risk" The Government Will Shut Down At The End Of The Month

Bps1691

Bps1691

Veteran Member
In 2020, $1.001 trillion (89.6 percent) of total Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance income came from payroll taxes. The remainder was provided by interest earnings $76 billion (6.8 percent) and revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits $41 billion (3.6 percent).

As you can see the vast majority of the money paid out comes from the money coming in in FICA taxes. The balance is interest OWED BY THE FEDS for the many decades of borrowing from the fund and the last portion from the taxes.

SS is a pay as you go program.

Welfare on the other hand is NOT paid for by those who get it and is fully funded by the general tax fund.

We all know what would happen in about 24 hours after the government idiots actually do jump the shark and not pay the social security and/or welfare payments.

1632242165615.png
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
helen said:
“In a matter of days, millions of Americans could be strapped for cash,” Yellen said.
“Nearly 50 million seniors could stop receiving Social Security checks for a time. Troops could go unpaid. Millions of families who rely on the monthly child tax credit could see delays.”

www.cnbc.com

What the federal debt ceiling showdown could mean for you

Here's a breakdown of what may happen if Congress fails to suspend or increase the debt ceiling by October.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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Notice they hit the seniors first?

They are never hit by these things. They have plenty of other targets they hit first.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Bps1691 said:
In 2020, $1.001 trillion (89.6 percent) of total Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance income came from payroll taxes. The remainder was provided by interest earnings $76 billion (6.8 percent) and revenue from taxation of OASDI benefits $41 billion (3.6 percent).

As you can see the vast majority of the money paid out comes from the money coming in in FICA taxes. The balance is interest OWED BY THE FEDS for the many decades of borrowing from the fund and the last portion from the taxes.

SS is a pay as you go program.

Welfare on the other hand is NOT paid for by those who get it and is fully funded by the general tax fund.

We all know what would happen in about 24 hours after the government idiots actually do jump the shark and not pay the social security and/or welfare payments.

View attachment 290945
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People do miss the fact that there is no "trust fund" as the politicians like to say. It is paid with annual taxes. So there is not running out as many like to say, but rather points where they are no longer collecting as much as they need to meet obligations.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Blacknarwhal said:
I maintain that they do that to get the seniors sufficiently riled to besiege their congresscritters. They care about keeping their place at the trough, after all, and it takes votes to do that. The seniors are a major voting bloc.
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Is it possible? Heck yeah! I agree on that. I disagree with the article suggesting that it will automatically stop for seniors come November 1.

IF it gets the Dims an advantage at the polls, you can bet the seniors will be cut off in half a second.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
20Gauge said:
Is it possible? Heck yeah! I agree on that. I disagree with the article suggesting that it will automatically stop for seniors come November 1.

IF it gets the Dims an advantage at the polls, you can bet the seniors will be cut off in half a second.
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And admittedly the impact of a major voting bloc is a lot less than what it was with Dominion and all.
 
Josie

Josie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
JF&P said:
If they shut off my SS... I'm screwed, but I don't think they are that stupid.
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Exactly. One does reach a point where there is nothing left to lose. There are probably thousands in the same boat.
 
Bps1691

Bps1691

Veteran Member
20Gauge said:
People do miss the fact that there is no "trust fund" as the politicians like to say. It is paid with annual taxes. So there is not running out as many like to say, but rather points where they are no longer collecting as much as they need to meet obligations.
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Don't forget the INTEREST the fed's owe on their Bond's they have forced the SS Trust to pay out over the decades they robbed it.
 
Josie

Josie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Dobbin said:
And we'll straighten this out once Congress realizes they can't continue to expand government service without the means to pay for it."
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And that will never in a million years happen. The group in now has been there so long they don't even realize that the U.S. government cannot keep doing status quo.
Border Collie Dad said:
Pubs don't have the balls to stick it out.
And they don't really want to
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Absolutely not. This "tough talk" is just that, talk. Republicans, as a whole, cave when the rubber meets the road.
helen said:
Debt is handled on a daily basis and governed by the available cash coming in that day.
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That's how us regular people work things. It's called a balanced budget. Government has never done that and now were are in for over $28 TRILLION.
Techwreck said:
Traitor Joe just addressed the UN.
I couldn't bear to watch, but apparently he promised lots more money for.....

well, everything including climate change
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Typical leftist MO. Throw more money at it and hope it makes people like you.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Josie said:
And that will never in a million years happen. The group in now has been there so long they don't even realize that the U.S. government cannot keep doing status quo.

Absolutely not. This "tough talk" is just that, talk. Republicans, as a whole, cave when the rubber meets the road.

That's how us regular people work things. It's called a balanced budget. Government has never done that and now were are in for over $28 TRILLION.

Typical leftist MO. Throw more money at it and hope it makes people like you.
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We actually had a balanced budget in 2001? I think

I will grant that 9 times or more out of 10 they don't balance.....
 
Bps1691

Bps1691

Veteran Member
20Gauge said:
They may call it interest, but really they are just shifting money from one pocket to another. The "interest" they pay themselves is just an excuse to collect more taxes.
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It's not interest they pay themselves. It is interest on the money they took from the money paid specifically for the "trust fund". They in fact OWE that money plus the interest (politicians). There is a difference.

They - the 617 retired Members of Congress receiving federal pensions based fully or in part on their congressional service as of October 1, 2018 - are covered by a totally different system.
 
Windwood

Windwood

Contributing Member
helen said:
Medicaid and food stamp payments to state programs.

I'm going to say this again. An event that physically prevents them from convening to vote on budget and/or debt ceiling will be catastrophic in terms of the financial stability of the U.S and the rest of the world. No joke.
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I agree with you COMPLETELY!!! There could be an event coming that would physically prevent them from convening to vote on the budget/ debt ceiling and it would be catastrophic. Do we have any idea of what said event might entail?
 
SageRock

SageRock

Veteran Member
According to this chart, the earliest that the debt limit would exhaust cash and extraordinary measures is around October 14, 2021, and the latest that would happen is around November 18, 2021.

The most likely date that this "hits the wall" is around October 27, 2021 (or October 31st -- Happy Halloween!)

This is a chart from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research:

(h/t ZeroHedge: Democrats Unveil Stopgap Funding Bill, Debt Ceiling Suspension As Goldman Warns Of Shutdown "Collision Course")

debt limit bind october_0.jpg
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Steve Bannon isn't even really correct when it comes to a normal Federal shut down - the people who are made to keep working are not those who "do the essential work" they are the ones who are considered "essential employees."

In my old office that meant my manager had to come in, with no employees what so ever and answer the phone. Mostly he was answering the phone telling employees it was illegal for them to come in and volunteer their time, and if he allowed it he would go to jail.

Most buildings also require a few security staff, perhaps a janitor, and the rest are managers and GS 13/14 types who can do absolutely nothing without the other employees.

This varies from agency to agency and some agencies like DOD are allowed by Congress to "deem" nearly everyone an essential employee. That is not the case for most agencies, instead, people are forced (by law) to stay home and listen to their friends and families demand to know why they don't just "go in and work anyway."

That said, the Federal Government defaulting or not being allowed to go over the full debt ceiling is different, for most shutdowns Congress can (and usually does) eventually at least pass a continuing resolution that funds things exactly the way they were the year before.

Congress also usually back pays employees but they don't have to, legally people know they can be facing an enforced unpaid vacation they didn't ask for and didn't want.

In a default/debt ceiling situation - THE MONEY IS NOT THERE, so Congress can not just put things off with a Continuing Resolution - there is nothing to pay for the Continuing Resolution with.

From what I've seen, The Federal Reserve has a few tricks up it's sleeve in terms of robbing Peter to pay Paul sort of tactics to try to keep the military paid and the lights on in the nuclear bunkers. But even that won't last very long and it is only theoretical at this point.

A real default/no debt ceiling lift really could put the US in a very strange and dangerous situation. I'm sure China is hoping it will occur, I will be surprised if they are not in Taiwan the next day.
 
D

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
SpokaneMan,

It is INEVITABLE that government benefits will either go away or be inflated into uselessness. I opted out of Socialist Security when I processed into Uncle Scam's service so I always knew that was a nonstarter, I have been enjoying my miniscule fedgov pension but have never counted on it outlasting me.

I have no idea what your alternatives for income are now but best be thinking on it....
 
V

vestige

Deceased
Melodi said:
Steve Bannon isn't even really correct when it comes to a normal Federal shut down - the people who are made to keep working are not those who "do the essential work" they are the ones who are considered "essential employees."

In my old office that meant my manager had to come in, with no employees what so ever and answer the phone. Mostly he was answering the phone telling employees it was illegal for them to come in and volunteer their time, and if he allowed it he would go to jail.

Most buildings also require a few security staff, perhaps a janitor, and the rest are managers and GS 13/14 types who can do absolutely nothing without the other employees.

This varies from agency to agency and some agencies like DOD are allowed by Congress to "deem" nearly everyone an essential employee. That is not the case for most agencies, instead, people are forced (by law) to stay home and listen to their friends and families demand to know why they don't just "go in and work anyway."

That said, the Federal Government defaulting or not being allowed to go over the full debt ceiling is different, for most shutdowns Congress can (and usually does) eventually at least pass a continuing resolution that funds things exactly the way they were the year before.

Congress also usually back pays employees but they don't have to, legally people know they can be facing an enforced unpaid vacation they didn't ask for and didn't want.

In a default/debt ceiling situation - THE MONEY IS NOT THERE, so Congress can not just put things off with a Continuing Resolution - there is nothing to pay for the Continuing Resolution with.

From what I've seen, The Federal Reserve has a few tricks up it's sleeve in terms of robbing Peter to pay Paul sort of tactics to try to keep the military paid and the lights on in the nuclear bunkers. But even that won't last very long and it is only theoretical at this point.

A real default/no debt ceiling lift really could put the US in a very strange and dangerous situation. I'm sure China is hoping it will occur, I will be surprised if they are not in Taiwan the next day.
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Good post
 
I

intothatgoodnight

. . .
Sooth said:
Social Security "checks" and Military "checks" are in reality computer generated direct deposits. To truly shut down "the Government" somebody has to shut down all those computers. Not going to happen. The direct deposits will continue.
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A twist of sorts on the Soviet-era saying, "The bosses pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work."

"We can pretend to send (fake) dollars to your bank account, and you can pretend to spend said (fake) dollars."

Everyone happy?

Smile for the camera.


intothegoodnight
 
SpokaneMan

SpokaneMan

Veteran Member
Dozdoats said:
SpokaneMan,

It is INEVITABLE that government benefits will either go away or be inflated into uselessness. I opted out of Socialist Security when I processed into Uncle Scam's service so I always knew that was a nonstarter, I have been enjoying my miniscule fedgov pension but have never counted on it outlasting me.

I have no idea what your alternatives for income are now but best be thinking on it....
Click to expand...
Iv'e been thinking on it for certain Doz. For many years in fact.

I'm not one to take vacations. I'm not one to go out every day for food or drink. I'm not one to consider the stock market as being true. But I have been one to use their IOU's to stock my pantries and partake in "Coin" collections. At this point for many years I have been collecting the enemies dough. And I'm in a pretty good spot now. Sure, I have skills. But the caveat is that I will be taken out because of my ODD. I would gladly grab a non military boss by the neck if and when he barks direct orders at me.

I owned my own IT business before, but who the hell would want me around their doorstep? I have anxiety attacks just thinking about it. I have been told my entire adult life that I am intimidating. What kind of employer is looking for that skillset? I really should have joined the Marine Corps.
 
helen

helen

Panic Sex Lady
SpokaneMan said:
Iv'e been thinking on it for certain Doz. For many years in fact.

I'm not one to take vacations. I'm not one to go out every day for food or drink. I'm not one to consider the stock market as being true. But I have been one to use their IOU's to stock my pantries and partake in "Coin" collections. At this point for many years I have been collecting the enemies dough. And I'm in a pretty good spot now. Sure, I have skills. But the caveat is that I will be taken out because of my ODD. I would gladly grab a non military boss by the neck if and when he barks direct orders at me.

I owned my own IT business before, but who the hell would want me around their doorstep? I have anxiety attacks just thinking about it. I have been told my entire adult life that I am intimidating. What kind of employer is looking for that skillset? I really should have joined the Marine Corps.
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If you're able bodied, ODD is not much of a problem for people who clean buildings at night. You work alone.
 
J

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
helen said:
If you're able bodied, ODD is not much of a problem for people who clean buildings at night. You work alone.
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And what if one is a physically disabled veteran or an elderly person or mentally handicapped that can't work and needs around the clock help to do basic tasks? There are a lot of people in our country that will suffer greatly at no fault of their own if this does happen. And the politicians will still get paid. Honestly, I highly doubt this will happen. War will happen before this does.

Helen,
This post is just me thinking out loud and is in no means an attack on you.
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
Get real people the so called government shutdown is staged. They close stuff and stop paying specific things to punish people while keeping the gravy train running for themselves and their friends.

And by the way you ain’t one of their friends. The camera’s will roll on the boo hoo stories trying to get you to continue punking out the younger generation and slipping in more hidden fascist rules and money going directly back to themselves.

I say they can all go straight to Hell and shut down the whole corrupt circus. If I don’t hear crying from DC and Northern Virginia rolling across the country because their government worker gravy train has stopped then they will keep on shoveling 10% to ‘the big guy!’
 
stop tyranny

stop tyranny

Veteran Member
helen said:
“In a matter of days, millions of Americans could be strapped for cash,” Yellen said.
“Nearly 50 million seniors could stop receiving Social Security checks for a time. Troops could go unpaid. Millions of families who rely on the monthly child tax credit could see delays.”

www.cnbc.com

What the federal debt ceiling showdown could mean for you

Here's a breakdown of what may happen if Congress fails to suspend or increase the debt ceiling by October.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
But all those checks and benefits will continue for those who created the problems. We are living under a tyranny NOW.
 
Griz3752

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon
I think know the history of how the Debt Ceiling came into existence but never figured out why it still existed; I mean not passing this is like a self-inflicted major-calibre wound.

Granted I don't think we can trust our govt to be totally forhcoming on monetary issues so, I see some significant value in a forced review of current and planned spending but the way this is written, failure to authorise exceeding the current ceiling is suicidal.

If I misunderstood the legislation or the issue etc please educate me.
 
A

anna43

Veteran Member
I think the Democrats will shut down whatever they believe will get the Republicans to cave the soonest. The Democrats will, of course, blame it on the Republicans who, of course, will say they cannot pass the ridiculous spending plan of the Democrats and round and round they go. I do hope that Congress does not get paid during the shutdown and do not get to collect their pay retroactively.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
The House just voted 220 to 211 party line to run the government until 12‐3-2021. This avoids the shut down. I think they also raised the debt ceiling too but I'm not sure if they can do that.
Of course piglosi still needs to get it through the senate which is a freaking mess and may not happen.
 
V

vestige

Deceased
Doomer Doug said:
The House just voted 220 to 211 party line to run the government until 12‐3-2021. This avoids the shut down. I think they also raised the debt ceiling too but I'm not sure if they can do that.
Of course piglosi still needs to get it through the senate which is a freaking mess and may not happen.
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Thanks Doug
 
helen

helen

Panic Sex Lady
John Deere Girl said:
And what if one is a physically disabled veteran or an elderly person or mentally handicapped that can't work and needs around the clock help to do basic tasks? There are a lot of people in our country that will suffer greatly at no fault of their own if this does happen. And the politicians will still get paid. Honestly, I highly doubt this will happen. War will happen before this does.

Helen,
This post is just me thinking out loud and is in no means an attack on you.
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I know it's not an attack. :kiss:

Fragile aged Elder is fretting about needing to work at a paying job. I'll work 24/7 before that happens. This thing they're doing will hurt millions of people who are already barely getting by. I know many, many people who simply cannot hold a job.
 
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