doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Living this life under the present circumstances will be difficult. Those that have TRUE GRIT will survive.
CRISIS Gotta ask, is da sh*t hittin' da fan?
- Thread starter NoMoreLibs
- Start date
Living this life under the present circumstances will be difficult. Those that have TRUE GRIT will survive.
Raggedyman
Res ipsa loquitur
incredibly well stated. most folks do not give themselves the chance to slow down and really THINK about this.
there are personal dangers to elders and those w/ certain preexistings. it will certainly be tragic to lose our loved ones - and some of us - but the reality of it is not only do we all arrive here with our own unique expiration dates, those that leave us are the very same that would have left us in a severe flu season. the vast majority of those that contract this
WILL R E C O V E R - Ebola it is NOT
most of us prepped for this - take the steps to support your immune system and stay out of town as much as you can. its going to get worse before it gets better - but - get better it WILL
greatest OVERALL danger is to the ECONOMY - principally via severely disrupted supply chain thanks to JIT and GLOBALISM - now the dominoes will all fall at warp 9.9
greatest OVERALL risk to your mental health is a constant focus on propaganda central
non of that means it isn't serious - just says that an ELE it IS NOT.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
And they are loaded with feces to drop on our heads as they fly over us. Damn birds! Lol
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Birdie birdie in the sky
Dropped some whitewash in my eyes
I'M REALLY GLAD THAT COWS DON'T FLY.
I call BS. The total death toll in Italy, the hardest hit country, is currently 7500. I’d personally predict 20,000 - 40,000 deaths in the US. JMHO here, but I feel a bunch of folks are watching all this with lip-smacking relish. The higher the Doom Factor, the larger their smiles become. “See? We were right after all!”
Thats a terrible way to think. Dial back the doom and the smug self-satisfaction levels.
(Not directed at any one person; just an observation on my part.)
Might as well tuck this here, as it seems it seems pretty shitty to me.
YMMV
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbNuu-yfhUY&feature=youtu.be
12+ min
Ben Swan, Are We Quarantining the Constitution? Swan is concerned that we might not get our civil liberties back.
YMMV
12+ min
Ben Swan, Are We Quarantining the Constitution? Swan is concerned that we might not get our civil liberties back.
Just more pearl clutching.
Well, you noticed that too. Note my signature line. Comes from Persia according to the young woman who pointed it out. She had another one.
If you fly with crows, expect to get shot at.
wvstuck
Only worry about what you can control!
No it is not SHTF, it is a virus like many that have come and gone. Practice safe methods and live your life. We were just talking here along the coast, about the time this thing rolls out, Hurricane season starts... Most of us will soon will be back to preparing for the next disaster... The economy will be much harder to fix than the virus ever was.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
It’s not the virus folks. The virus was the catylst. The global financial and economic bubble has been popped now. That is TSHTF! Short term treasuries are now negative and the Fed has gone down the road to open ended QE. That is direct monetizing the debt.
This always leads to eventual hyperinflation like Weimer Germany or Venezuela. This virus may or may not tickle your throat. What is coming now is a direct threat to your way of life and what you have grown up with as being normal.
This is not just my opinion but happens to every currency and nation that has gone down this path and we are not immune from this any more than we are immune from SARS-COV 2.
This always leads to eventual hyperinflation like Weimer Germany or Venezuela. This virus may or may not tickle your throat. What is coming now is a direct threat to your way of life and what you have grown up with as being normal.
This is not just my opinion but happens to every currency and nation that has gone down this path and we are not immune from this any more than we are immune from SARS-COV 2.
questionable1
Contributing Member
So how does hyperinflation show in real life? I thought 2008 would lead to some serious inflation. We got the same box with less content but i wouldn't call it hyper.
How long does it take to get hyper? Im not disagreeing with what will happen Im looking for information to detect it happening at the street level.
hiwall
Has No Life - Lives on TB
My son said just a day or two ago - "with all the money printing it will be worth much less." I said whoa not so fast. Yes, logically printing more money should make it worth much less. But. There is always a but. Look back at 2008 to 2015. US went way deeper in debt and the Fed printed an unheard of amount of new dollars. But what happened? Basically nothing. Those two things should have tanked the USA. But while the USA was doing that so was every other country in the world.
And now the Fed is again printing new dollars as fast as they can while Congress is spending us way farther in debt, same as every other country. The same as 2008 to 2015. Yes, its different this time because of the virus.
Will we have a different outcome this time? Will the USA crash? Will the world crash?
Stay tuned to find out the answers to these very important questions.
questionable1
Contributing Member
I want to know now. Can we binge watch this movie to the end? If i don't like the way it ends we can rewind.
I tell you what: when the US inflation rate meets or exceeds 10% EVERY WEEK, wake me. Until then, I don't care. Hyper inflation is indeed HYPER. Until it gets there, your comments is just words on a computer screen.
(Note that I'm not saying it can't happen. I AM saying that there is so much pearl clutching going on that oysters around the world must be screaming in agony.)
DD nailed it in one pic.
brdopc1
Contributing Member
Please define: Black Swans, I'm seeing it more often. Is it a economic doom predictor, or like a falsss flaaag, ????
It is a 2007 book by Nicholas Talib -
The Black Swan
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, af...
www.goodreads.com
etc
Inactive
Hfcomms
EN66iq
And at that point it's too late to do anything about it isn't it?
If we're destined for hyperinflation, it's ALREADY too late.
Ravekid
Veteran Member
I think the biggest issue is that say 40K die, I do think that the deaths will be a lot more condensed than what we see with the flu. The video of the doctor from one NYC area hospital seems legit. They have rented one refrigerated trailer to deal with the overflow of dead bodies as they ran out of room. Now that isn't five trailers, just one. So is this virus 1.5x worse than the flu? 3x?
One thing I'm seeing is more and more confirmations of people who test positive and this is after about two weeks of shutdown. A high school teacher is positive, but that school has been out of session for two weeks now. A person who worked at Cades Cove in Great Smoky Mountain NP is positive. We now have a handful of nursing homes here in the Indy area with an outbreak, but most nursing homes have been locked down for two weeks. It seems the virus is just going to keep spreading.
I feel the best we can do is use this time of reduced social interaction to try and come up with a plan for additional hospital space and supplies. Take the next four to six weeks and try to produce as much as possible. Get it ready and then open back up slowly. Start with restaurants. Let them allow dine-in eating, maybe even if half capacity. Then bars and such, again, maybe half capacity. Do that for a month and see where we are at. If things aren't dire in the hospitals, then start going back to sporting events, etc.. We need to build the herd immunity.
We might have to go to place where the elders are going to have to wait this one out. They might have to limit trips to grand kid events. Might want to skip vacations in high density areas, cruising. If they want to go out to eat, I'd suggest road trips to popular small town eateries, less population likely less risk. At some point people are going to want to go back to as near normal as it was before.
I agree that the deaths will be “condensed.” This pass. Next year, it'll just be another case of the flu. Enough people will have had it to develop “herd immunity.”
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
Spoil Sport!!
Again, this thing is not the Black Death. It is definitely a bad bug and no one wants to get it, but it is not going to depopulate entire cities. It is fairly contagious but we have some idea how it is spread and how to prevent at least some of the spread. We should do what we can within reason to keep the contagion controlled with this thing, time is on our side if we will just use it.
The economics and politics of the situation are a completely different ballgame, however. It seems to me far too many people are trying to frontload some far nastier outcomes on us than a mere virus can support.
The economics and politics of the situation are a completely different ballgame, however. It seems to me far too many people are trying to frontload some far nastier outcomes on us than a mere virus can support.
Silverfox
TWTFS
Silverfox
TWTFS
Yeah, just like being rear ended by a semi. The wreck will be behind you, but the consequences have just begun.
My take is: The financial fallout from this will be immense. Possibly leading to a depression. And what about the worlds new relationship with China? What about the huge hole in China's manufacturing capacity and distribution. Will the Chinks give their peasants a Grand each? Now that China, may have gotten over it, I doubt it, now that they may be over it, the rest of the world is on lock down, which means even if they do start producing products again, the purchase levels won't be what they were.
Lot's of "What If's". What if Trump uses this as an opportunity to significantly reduce trade with ChiComms?
Can we even say this will be over by the third week in April? The reality is, we are now about to experience the exponential phase where cases explode and overwhelm the system. Too soon to say it's over by then. And when it comes back if it even goes away? What then?
TWTFS.
MinnesotaSmith
Membership Revoked
Easy TEOTWAKI test; is the right fisherman's assessment true yet, or not?
Hognutz
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I like that doods positivity!Easy TEOTWAKI test; is the right fisherman's assessment true yet, or not?
Enough people will have had it to develop “herd immunity.
Looking on the brighter side, if this thing has been around since late last year (see the relevant threads), we may have more of a start on herd immunity than anyone is calculating yet. Or at east talking about it that I know of.
Looking on the brighter side, if this thing has been around since late last year (see the relevant threads), we may have more of a start on herd immunity than anyone is calculating yet. Or at east talking about it that I know of.
I somewhat disagree that CV-19 is even a Black Swan as N. Taleb defined it - a pandemic sweeping the globe has been predicted for years as "not IF, but WHEN" so we shouldn't be totally surprised that it's happening. A real Black Swan is something completely new that was unpredictable. I've been trying hard to avoid getting sick at work but I don't want the regular flu either so the same things work to prevent the flu as well as CV-19. Perhaps in the future hospitals and medical suppliers will plan to be able to handle surge situations like this more efficiently. "Just in time" might work fine for nonessential things but hospital beds, medical gear, and trained personnel don't appear quickly (especially trained people). Unfortunately maintaining a surge capacity costs money and society has to figure out how to pay for that.
Another concept that Taleb explores in his later books is "fragility" vs "anti-fragility", which is the concept of making things more robust so they can withstand unexpected shocks more readily. I think a lot of us on this board understand that concept intuitively.
Another concept that Taleb explores in his later books is "fragility" vs "anti-fragility", which is the concept of making things more robust so they can withstand unexpected shocks more readily. I think a lot of us on this board understand that concept intuitively.
Silverfox
TWTFS
Hello, it was bio-weapons project gone wrong. Or are you of the BatSoup variety? Some of you are starting to sound like DGI's on 2aminoCogDisChlorohydrochloride. Sorry, I don't mean to offend any biological state.
We are the Borg..PrepareToBeAsimilated
Waka Waka:
and yes, I can play this.
Silverfox
TWTFS
Should include the original version:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntn1-SocNiY
The Perfect Wife? What? Another infraction? Diversity!
The Perfect Wife? What? Another infraction? Diversity!
Silverfox: answering your question, of course it's a bioweapon. I haven't seen enough evidence to convince me whether it was released deliberately or by accident (the Chinese are notably sloppy). But having a bioweapon unleashed has been a common plotline in books, movies, and wargames for many years. Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Tragic and scary yes, but not a surprise.
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Silverfox
TWTFS
True. And it seems as though reality follows Hollywood. Just sayin. My take is they built a bio-weapons lab and didn't have the experience to operate it. So, mistakes happen.
Lone_Hawk
Resident Spook
The thing to watch are the bond markets. Bonds that were rated BBB will possibly be junk soon as this ripples through. The rating agencies got burned back in 2008 and they won't do that again, they will call it as it is. The ripple from this is that pension funds and others that are required by law to invest only in investment grade bonds will have to divest themselves of the bonds that slip to junk. That will cause a cascading effect. Everyone is watching the stock market, but that is being played by the pump monkeys and those pull their funds out at our expense.
Yes, the Wuhan Virus is bad, but what is happening in the bond markets is going to be a lot worse.