WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Zero hour for Ukraine: Aboard the Northern Fleet (!) and the Baltic Fleet are rushing M. Sea - Stationing of attack aircraft! (video) U.S.: Don't fly aircraft over specific areas of Ukraine

Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 17 2021
Translated from Greek

The most critical times for peace and stability in Europe began to count in reverse: By order of the Russian A/OHIM, Squadrons of ships from the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet to the Black Sea were transported.

Officially today we entered the most critical period for peace in Ukraine and this is because:

  1. Until now, Russia had not carried offensive aircraft, which is necessary for a long-term offensive in Ukraine. That changed today and the evaluation of the American agencies went to the trash. Russia transferred Su-25SM3 from Stavropol to Crimea along with Su-27SM, Su-30SM, Su-24M and Su-34.
  2. Russia, along with the Caspian Fleet that "passed" it in the Black Sea, today also carried a ship from the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet.
  3. The manpower to conduct aggressive operations already exists. So all three conditions of Russian aggression have now been met.
  4. It has imposed a naval blockade on Ukraine

Russian apolytics rush Black Sea

Two ships from the Russian Baltic Fleet, the Ropucha-class Korolev and Kaliningrad, are heading for the Black Sea. This is their first deployment there since 2017 and 2014 respectively.

From the Northern Fleet it carries the kondopoga and Aleksandr Otrakovskiy. This is their first operational deployment since 2012 and 2018 respectively.

Another eight take-offs and three corvetes and support ships were transported from the Caspian Fleet to the Sea of Azov.

In total, Moscow must currently have around 15 ships in the Black Sea.

U.S.: Carefully fly aircraft over Ukrainian areas

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced that it "recommendsthat U.S. aircraft fly with caution over the areas of Kiev, Dnieper, Symferopol and over the areas bordering Russia.

The statement says that "the recommendation comes because of flight safety risks associated with the regional escalation between Russia and Ukraine."

50 Russian aircraft in military exercises mobilized by Moscow

At the same time, more than 50 Russian aircraft are mobilizing Moscow for military exercises over the Black Sea, according to a statement from the Southern Military District.

The exercises will involve the Naval Air Force, the Southern Military District Air Force along with the defense systems. 50 Russian fighters and bombers will be in the air, namely Su-27SM, Su-30SM, Su-24M, Su-34 bombers, Su-25SM3.

The fighters will proceed with virtual bombardments against surface targets.

It is worth noting that a squadron of Su-25SM3 attack aircraft have been transferred to the Ashuluk training centre in the Astrakhan region.

Earlier, the transfer of forces, namely the 58th Formation from the North Caucasus to Crimea, was announced.

ΕΚΤΑΚΤΟ- Ωρα μηδέν για την Ουκρανία: Αποβατικά από τον Βόρειο Στόλο (!) και τον Στόλο Βαλτικής σπεύδουν Μ. Θάλασσα – Μεταστάθμευση επιθετικών αεροσκαφών! (βίντεο) - WarNews247
 
Grumphau

Grumphau

Veteran Member
Melodi said:
Also, my parent's generation (not necessarily my parents) was full of people (even teachers) who believed to their dying day that using the A-Bomb in Japan to stop the war was "common sense."

Their argument (and you can make a case for it) was the one given out to the US public at the time, was pretty much that while destroying a city was horrific, it was better than the even more horrific loss of life an actual invasion of Japan by US and allied troops would result in.

Hand to hand fighting across the island with troops and civilians sworn to "die for the Emperor," was met with horror, made worse because some of these reports would probably have turned out to be true, that is hard to know because it the end it didn't happen.

Anyway, my point is to agree that what looks like "common sense" when it comes to ultra-destructive weapons is a matter of viewpoint and even the same nation may see it differently in different generations.
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Well, the notion isn't incorrect. Estimated body counts are 1-2 million allied casualties and 10-20 million Japanese casualties to invade the home isles.
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Grumphau said:
Well, the notion isn't incorrect. Estimated body counts are 1-2 million allied casualties and 10-20 million Japanese casualties.
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As I said, an argument can be made for it, I can see the logic and at the time no one was sure exactly how much or what sort of damage would result (other than major).

But my point was it was considered "just common sense" at the time (at least that was the public story) to use the bomb first BEFORE waiting to invade.

Which is kind of chilling when you think about how the West thinks that China especially might not see "common sense" in a similar way. Russia might as well, though if Putin did that (except for small field weapons) that the outcome would be unpredictable and he doesn't have the population that China does.

China can lose quite a few million people and still function, I don't know if that would "work" for Russia. Plus Russia has kind of a combined Western/Eastern outlook and while Putin is willing to try to restore the Russian Empire if he can, I think he is somewhat protective of the Russian people.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Melodi said:
Also, my parent's generation (not necessarily my parents) was full of people (even teachers) who believed to their dying day that using the A-Bomb in Japan to stop the war was "common sense."

Their argument (and you can make a case for it) was the one given out to the US public at the time, was pretty much that while destroying a city was horrific, it was better than the even more horrific loss of life an actual invasion of Japan by US and allied troops would result in.

Hand to hand fighting across the island with troops and civilians sworn to "die for the Emperor," was met with horror, made worse because some of these reports would probably have turned out to be true, that is hard to know because it the end it didn't happen.

Anyway, my point is to agree that what looks like "common sense" when it comes to ultra-destructive weapons is a matter of viewpoint and even the same nation may see it differently in different generations.
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The estimates for American kia invading Japan were 300,000 dead, and 500,000 wounded, equal to our total dead and wounded. The japs would have executed 100,000 pows. They would have had 8 million military and civilian dead. They had stored 2,000 planes for kamikaze attacks. Look at okinawa and tarawa for how they would have fought to the death.

10 to 15% of Japan's total population would have died from the fighting, disease and starvation. Plus we kept Russia out.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
China and Russia don't think like we do. I remember the Russians had nuclear tactical release ability at the brigade level in 1974 to fight us.
China used a bio weapon covid on us already so why wouldn't they decapitate us with a first strike, same with putin. They never got the memo about "losing" a nuclear war.

They hit us hard enough and fast enough they can win. Besides, China won't hesitate to take 500 million dead. Xi the merciless. We are watching ukraine and taiwan and they are prepping for a first strike on conus and europe.
 
Old Gringo

Old Gringo

Senior Member
jpigott said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383374727243202561
View: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1383374727243202561
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Doomer Doug said:
China and Russia don't think like we do. I remember the Russians had nuclear tactical release ability at the brigade level in 1974 to fight us.
China used a bio weapon covid on us already so why wouldn't they decapitate us with a first strike, same with putin. They never got the memo about "losing" a nuclear war.

They hit us hard enough and fast enough they can win. Besides, China won't hesitate to take 500 million dead. Xi the merciless. We are watching ukraine and taiwan and they are prepping for a first strike on conus and europe.
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What would they gain from a strike ?

China has enough slave labor to rebuild infrastructure but what would Russia gain other than a free hand ?
 
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Old Gringo said:
What would they gain from a strike ?

China has enough slave labor to rebuild infrastructure but what would Russia gain other than a free hand ?
Click to expand...

It’s possible Russia may feel backed into a corner. They may think a first strike now is a better option than waiting for NATO to put missiles across the border in Ukraine.

They no doubt believe they have shown great patience. The US has been stepping on their toes constantly. Russia has shown great patience especially in Syria.

When one decides “enough is enough,” bad things can happen.
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Old Gringo said:
What would they gain from a strike ?

China has enough slave labor to rebuild infrastructure but what would Russia gain other than a free hand ?
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That is why I have I would make the educated guess that Russia may do a nuclear demonstration (that's been talked about) or show off a similar super-weapon, but they are less likely to first strike with it as an opening move.

China, however, is a wild card in that sense; also I am not saying the Russians won't do something like that because they could, but they probably won't other than perhaps smaller tactical field weapons. But again, that would probably have the US responding in kind and things could go up from there (I hope not).
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Here is how Xi the merciless thinks, which is the same way Mao Tse Tung thought.

He nukes Guam, Okinawa, Pearl Harbor, the Trident base, San Diego, along with North Korea hitting japan and south korea.
Finally, EMP's on conus and most of nukes are neutrons. Russia and Iran pile on. Venezuela and after 3 months he goes red dawn.

The USA under biden would do what? Nothing at all, except nuke. Shanghai or whatever. Xi doesn't care how many chinese we kill. He would get it ALL, everything of value we have: land for food, water etc

And THAT IS HOW THEY THINK. And we got this brain dead fool as potus and a woke country and military, at least 50% anyway.

So they bait us with Ukraine and Taiwan and once we wasted ourselves, both in conus and in theater they nuke us and game over.
Lurkey, now THAT is some serious DOOM. :hof:
 
Infoscout

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
They do not need to nuke the US. All they have to do is cut the grid and online banking systems, and that will be all she wrote. You have to remember too, the Democrats are now a dictatorship here, and they are transforming the military into an internal police force. To be honest, the pacific and Europe won’t matter to them as long as they have control here.
 
Illini Warrior

Illini Warrior

Illini Warrior
you can quit strategizing about the Ukraine - it's fate is sealed >>> the US and NATO has had armor sitting on the border for the last 6 years for just this occasion >>> Prez Trump would have them moved up and in position and airborne coming in by the planeload by now - Biden is abandoning the Ukrainians to the New Russia >>>

only question is where Putin goes next - he's already seizing Belarus for the invasion and Estonia is a dead duck also - does he go back to Georgia or will it be some other former Bloc country? - Romania? - time for another go at Finland? - maybe he can come up with another Stalin excuse to take half of Poland ....
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
I'm starting to wonder if Russian diplomats and embassy staff are coordinating Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) surveillance of critical NATO command and control installations along with important infrastructure facilities like energy and communication hubs?

With the intention of physical attacks if hostilities erupt between Russia and NATO.

It has always been part of the Russian war plan during the early stages of a surprise attack.

Watch for Russian "tourists" and "businessmen" being detained or blocked entry in Western countries.

Russia has a lot of dirty tricks they could deploy short of using nukes.

Ukraine.PNG
 
1-12020

1-12020

Senior Member
Infoscout said:
They do not need to nuke the US. All they have to do is cut the grid and online banking systems, and that will be all she wrote. You have to remember too, the Democrats are now a dictatorship here, and they are transforming the military into an internal police force. To be honest, the pacific and Europe won’t matter to them as long as they have control here.
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I concur.
The moral character of many us citizens is not the same as it was during the great depression.
Turn off the power, cut EBT, and bam the cities are gone.
Out in the country, it will take a bit more time, people will be more gracious until the camping effect wears off. Then reality of feeding ones group will sink in.
I do have more hope for people in the country and think that people even in the suburbs will fair much better than the city.
 
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FreedomoftheHills

FreedomoftheHills

Contributing Member
Illini Warrior said:
you can quit strategizing about the Ukraine - it's fate is sealed >>> the US and NATO has had armor sitting on the border for the last 6 years for just this occasion >>> Prez Trump would have them moved up and in position and airborne coming in by the planeload by now ....
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President Trump would have done nothing of the kind.

This war, if it comes to war, is a creation of the very sort of Swamp-dwelling dual-citizen neocons who opposed Trump from the beginning, the sort who want to preserve their godless, interventionist "rules based (new world) order" at any cost - even at the risk of kicking off a nuclear war.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Hognutz

Hognutz

Has No Life - Lives on TB
FreedomoftheHills said:
President Trump would have done nothing of the kind.

This war, if it comes to war, is a creation of the very sort of Swamp-dwelling dual-citizen neocons who opposed Trump from the beginning, the sort who want to preserve their godless, interventionist "rules based (new world) order" at any cost - even at the risk of kicking off a nuclear war.
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Truth! Dual-citizens gonna dual-citizen!
 
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