WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Battlefield the M. Sea: The High Readiness Strike Force(VJTF) sends NATO to protect Ukraine - They see Russian landing in Mariupol (maps) In order... landing the Russian Fleet in the Sea of Azov

Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 16 2021
Translated from Greek

The High Readiness Strike Force (VJTF) is sending NATO to the Black Sea against Russia following the transfer of the Caspian Fleet to the Azov Sea and the naval blockade announced yesterday against Ukraine.

NATO and Ukraine see russian aggression as just around the corner. In fact, Ukrainian sources also published maps of the layout of the Russian Fleet in Azophic and the possible axes of Moscow's attack.

It is noted that the High Readiness Strike Force was created after 2014 precisely because of Ukraine and for the... Ukraine.

Mariupol target – Russian adviser: Russian forces prepare landing

Already, the Caspian Fleet, which was transported almost all of them to Azofic, has received a landing order opposite Mariupol. Everything indicates that a landing is planned.

Ukrainian sources say a Russian amphibious exercise in the region will be announced soon. The Russians are positioning targets while carrying a Goryn SB-36-class tugboat and a PGS-123 firefighting ship near Opuk.

According to Ukrainian and Russian sources, six Russian Serna-class 11770 submarine ships and 3 Buyan-M class 21631 cruise missiles capable of launching Calibre cruise missiles are in the Azov Sea.

Earlier today, the former adviser to Russia's president, Andrei Illarionov, expressed the view of a "possible strike on the mainland Taurida north of Crimea, the occupation of the Northern Crimea Canal and the cut-off of Ukraine from the BlackSea"

map9.jpg


NATO reaction to Ukraine's naval blockade

"We are concerned by reports that Russia plans to restrict access to the Black Sea and the Kurtz Strait. That would be an unjustified move, part of a broader plan to destabilize Russia.
We call on Russia to ensure free access to Ukrainian ports in the Azov Sea and to allow freedom of navigation.
We call on Russia to de-escalate immediately, stop provocations and respect international commitments.
We fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders."

The maritime blockade imposed by Russia on Ukraine concerns three maritime zones:

the western tip of Crimea, the zone south of Sevastopol in Hurzouf and finally the "triangle" off the Kerch peninsula near the Opoukski Marine Park.

This latter zone is the most controversial because it is located near the Kerch Strait which connects the Black Sea with the Azophical Sea and is crucial for Ukrainian exports of grain and steel.


NATO Sends High Readiness Strike Force (VJTF)

According to WarNews247, a ship - a harbinger of NATO's newly formed High Readiness Strike Force - has sailed towards the Black Sea and is the final destination for romania's port of Constanta.

The British-flagged cargo ship just crossed the Straits and carries logistical support for this NATO force.

‎This means that NATO Strike Force VJTF will be deployed to the Black Sea in Romania.‎

‎The Alliance's newly formed "High Readiness Strike Force" (VJTF) consists of 5 Battalions in rotating readiness.‎

‎These Battalions are supported by air and naval units, as well as by special forces. The total strength of the new formation reaches 5,000 strains and is the spearhead of NATO's wider Rapid Action planning, which was unveiled during the Alliance member countries' leaders' meeting in Wales in September 2014.‎

‎This plan is NATO's response to developments in Eastern Ukraine. The new "High Readiness" military formation is organized and equipped in such a way that it can operate anywhere within 48 hours, once it is called upon to act.‎

mapukr6.jpg


According to NATO sources, this force will be able to act before a potential crisis breaks out.

NATO's new Rapid Reaction Force consists of four divisions: the Command and Control Division, the "High Readiness Strike Force", the "Initial Reinforcement Forces Team" and the "Response Forces" with a total force of over 30,000 men.

Πεδίο μάχης η Μ. Θάλασσα: Την Δύναμη Κρούσης Υψηλής Ετοιμότητας (VJTF) στέλνει το ΝΑΤΟ για την προστασία της Ουκρανίας – Βλέπουν ρωσική απόβαση στην Μαριούπολη (χάρτες) - WarNews247
 
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Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Sheesh, this token NATO force is a token SCRAP, just big enough to be slaughtered, and small enough to be USELESS.
In fact, it shows how INCOMPETETENT NATO IS.

God help us. War when the ground dries? Absolutely by Memorial Day:dstrs:
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Doomer Doug said:
Sheesh, this token NATO force is a token SCRAP, just big enough to be slaughtered, and small enough to be USELESS.
In fact, it shows how INCOMPETETENT NATO IS.

God help us. War when the ground dries? Absolutely by Memorial Day:dstrs:
Click to expand...

Despite Germany being the powerhouse economically of the EU and it's supposed chief enforcer. Germany is woefully energy dependent on Russia since Germany abandoned nuclear power and went "green".

Germany has severely drawn down it's force structure and abandoned it's military financing below the 2% minimum NATO goal. President Trump was all over Germany for their lack of financial commitment.

A simple fact is that if Germany introduces -any- ground or air forces to nations bordering Russia, Russia will go -totally- apesh*t and strike a telling blow against Germany. Up to and including nukes IMO. Did anyone forget WWII?

Add to the fact that Angela Merkel was a former card carrying Communist secretary of the East German Communist Agitation and Propaganda Ministry (Agit-Prop). Merkel is not going to rally against her former masters. Germany is out of The Game.

That leaves the UK and France to ponder how much treasure and blood they are willing to invest in Ukraine. Not much IMO.

That leaves the good old USA with Sleepy Joe at the helm.

Other than a horrible accident, I don't expect much the NATO/US military to actually push back against Russian Adventurism. Georgia and Crimea are already a done deal.
 
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Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
May is the latest I think. It will the exact day the ground dries
enough to drive a 60 ton? tank around.

Add 24 hours to that and you get your GO Date for Operation Reverse Barbarosa.:vik:
Floating around out there was April 20th, when Russian combat preps will be ready.
Putin's speech on the 21st, could be the day after. Each day after the 20th could be it IF the ground dries.

Anytime during or after Putin's speech, all the way to Memorial Day.

April 22nd to 30th, followed by May 1st to 15th then.
Game on, just waiting for hard ground for armor.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Red Baron, the Wehrmacht is ancient history. Besides equipment issues, like 100 tanks total for Germany to Russia's 7000, there is the will to fight. The Russians have it and the Germans don't. I talked with them back in 1974 and they were shattered some 30 years later military and guilt wise.
Iook at them and see what is being done to white children now under biden

Germany won't fight Russia. Germany won't fight ANYBODY, ecxept white people they think are NAZI'S. Heck, Germany won't even fight muslims that are killing them. The dutch military was ponytails and smoking joints some 45 years ago.:eleph:

NATO will be useless fighting Russia, even the so called elite units are woke.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Dont forget, Orthodox Easter is May 2nd and may have some bearing on timing and degree of war engaged at that time. . .


_______________________________________




EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3


The Pentagon considers the suspension of the passage of ships in parts of the Black Sea as pressure on Kiev
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
jward said:
Dont forget, Orthodox Easter is May 2nd and may have some bearing on timing and degree of war engaged at that time. . .


_______________________________________

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3


The Pentagon considers the suspension of the passage of ships in parts of the Black Sea as pressure on Kiev
Click to expand...
No it is an act of war.
Ya think the clintons and obama realize that?
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Post 1972 means war with Russia for the USA. the poor ukrainian fools are so screwed. NATO and biden apparently gave them the ssme guarantee britian gave poland. Suckers.
 
D

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
But Russia Russia Russia! - stupid Americans. Say goodbye ...
===========

Are Russia and China Igniting a Third World War? – J.R. Nyquist Blog

Posted on April 15, 2021
Are Russia and China Igniting a Third World War?
Surprise makes it possible to inflict heavy losses upon the enemy in short periods of time, to paralyze his will, and to deprive him of the possibility of offering organized resistance. Surprise is achieved in the following ways: by using various types of methods of combat; by misleading the enemy as to one’s own intentions; by safeguarding the security of operational plans; by decisive action and skillful maneuver; by unexpected use of nuclear weapons; and by using means and methods with which the enemy is unfamiliar.
SOVIET DICTIONARY OF BASIC MILITARY TERMS
Click to expand...
On 16 October of last year, during a presentation at a forum in Shenzhen, Chinese sociologist Li Yi made the following statement: “It turns out that China is going to overtake the United States….” He explained that COVID-19 was “a test” that is “bad for Europe and America” but “beneficial for China and North Korea.” Then Li spoke of China being “ahead of schedule” in terms of overtaking the United States. “The U.S. will not survive,” he predicted. “We have gained absolute superiority over the U.S. military in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Taiwan Strait, and we are expanding our military at a rate unprecedented in human history.” He added that, for several years running, China has launched a new fleet every year the size of the French Navy. This rate of naval production will continue for the next decade. Then he said, “As long as 1.4 billion Chinese people eat, sleep, defecate, and urinate every day … we will drive the U.S. to its death.”

Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian delivered a secret speech before an elite group of Communist Party cadres nearly twenty years ago. The speech contains references to a future Chinese biological attack on America. “It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans,” said Chi. “But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century in which the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we’d have to pick the latter….”

General Chi’s speech outlined China’s overpopulation problem, China’s shortage of clean water, and China’s other environmental problems. China needs unpolluted land, noted General Chi. But where can this be found? All nearby lands are insufficient. Only America has the rich land that is needed. “We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios,” said Chi. “If our biological weapons succeed in a surprise attack, the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses to a minimum in the fight against the United States. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the United States, China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly….” [italics added]
/////snip
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Zoner said:
Great essay by J. R. Nyquist

jrnyquist.blog

Are Russia and China Igniting a Third World War?

Surprise makes it possible to inflict heavy losses upon the enemy in short periods of time, to paralyze his will, and to deprive him of the possibility of offering organized resistance. Surprise is…
jrnyquist.blog jrnyquist.blog
Click to expand...
Yes a FANTASTIC analysis of what our enemies plan for us.
They despise us now and they will use nuclear or another round of bio weapons to destroy us.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3


Update: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the U.S. has recommended that U.S. airlines fly with caution over the regions of Kiev, Dnipro, Simferopol and over the bordering Russian regions of the flight information regions of Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.

The corresponding orders are issued due to "possible risks of flight safety associated with the escalation of regional tensions between Russia and Ukraine."
10:46 PM · Apr 16, 2021·Twitter Web App
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Zoner said:
Great essay by J. R. Nyquist

jrnyquist.blog

Are Russia and China Igniting a Third World War?

Surprise makes it possible to inflict heavy losses upon the enemy in short periods of time, to paralyze his will, and to deprive him of the possibility of offering organized resistance. Surprise is…
jrnyquist.blog jrnyquist.blog
Click to expand...

Really hard to not agree with Nyquist's conclusions. My only thought is that the CCP leadership in particular may be assuming too much in terms of its own resilience in the face of such a series of events. We are so screwed.....
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well, he is dealing with the flesh, and he is correct, but he ignores the spirit and that changes things. Further, the CCP is loathed and despised, the loss of the mandate of heaven and all of that, by the Chinese People it has abused.
At any rate, two thirds of the TOTAL global population, is predicted, how or when, can't say, to be killed off. And I see no indication that die off isn't still in play, whatever the means or timing.

As for the USA, well one half, some 150 to 170 million is on the list, and it ain't Santa's list, Housecarl, and it isn't the nice one even if it were on Santa's list. :kaid:

I like to think in the spiritual realm that these psycho murderer types, that will butcher several BILLION innocents, will get it in the end. I'm afraid for the USA, the Demoncrat half is just too stupid and corrupt to live through the kind of stuff coming down.

I just talked to my liberal family members, the ones who listen to National Public Radio, or National Propaganda Radio as I like to call it. They all got vaccinated, and just ignore when I point out the FACTS, like it isn't a vaccine, it is an experimental gene treatment that has serious side effects, etc etc, well they just go, I didn't drop dead when they jabbed me, so screw off. When I told them they would now need a third jab, over another year, that didn't even phase them.

I am still convinced the ones that take the vaccines will die, and the ones that don't like moi, will be hunted down. I am not sure how, but this vaccine :poop: will lead to hundreds of millions of deaths, not from the covid disease, but from the vaccines??.
 
Marie

Marie

Veteran Member
lipr.org.uk

Russian security service detains Ukraine diplomat - London Institute of Peace Research

Saint Petersburg: Russia’s FSB security service said on Saturday it had detained a Ukrainian diplomat, accusing him of receiving sensitive information from a Russian national. In recent years Russia has detained a number of Ukrainian nationals on suspicion of spying but the detention of a...
lipr.org.uk lipr.org.uk

Russian security service detains Ukraine diplomat - London Institute of Peace Research

Saint Petersburg: Russia’s FSB security service said on Saturday it had detained a Ukrainian diplomat, accusing him of receiving sensitive information from a Russian national.

In recent years Russia has detained a number of Ukrainian nationals on suspicion of spying but the detention of a diplomat is rare and seen as a sign of sharply rising tensions.

“A Ukrainian diplomat, a consul of Ukraine’s Consulate General in Saint Petersburg, Alexander Sosonyuk, has been detained by Russia’s FSB,” the security service said in a statement, using the Russian language spelling of his name.

He had been detained on Friday, the security service said.

Kiev confirmed the diplomat had spent several hours in detention and was now back in the Ukrainian diplomatic mission.

Russia’s domestic intelligence agency said Sosonyuk had been caught “red-handed” during a meeting with a Russian national as he sought to receive “classified” information.

“Such activity is not compatible with his diplomatic status and is of clearly hostile nature towards the Russian Federation,” the FSB said.

“In conformity with international law, measures will be taken against the foreign diplomat.”

In Kiev, Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko chalked up the incident to raging tensions between the two countries. “This is yet another provocation amid Russia’s destabilising activities,” he told AFP in a statement.

He said Kiev was looking into the incident and would respond “in the near future.”

In recent weeks, tensions have escalated between Russia and Ukraine, with Kiev accusing Moscow of massing troops on its border and seeking to destroy “Ukrainian statehood.”

Kiev has been battling Russian-backed separatists in the east of Ukraine since 2014, and clashes has intensified since the start of the year, shredding a ceasefire agreed last July.

Concern has been mounting that the long-simmering conflict could spiral back into wider fighting, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the West for help. AFP
 
Marie

Marie

Veteran Member

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Ukrainian Envoy: NATO Or Nuclear Weapons
Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Apr 17, 2021 - 07:00 AM
On Thursday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seconded a statement by Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili that "it is time for concrete proposals for Ukraine and Georgia to obtain a NATO MAP and a plan to join the EU." The two countries have been paired as partners for future NATO membership, with both being promised membership in the global military bloc at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in 2008.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, seconded Zelensky’s demand that NATO admit Ukraine as a full member, stating that only that move would prevent a Russian invasion: "The only possibility for this [to prevent alleged invasion plans] is for Ukraine to finally become a NATO member."


He also claimed that had his country been in NATO in 2014 the secession of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea would not have occurred; neither would the now seven-year was in the Donbass. He neglected to state whether the U.S.-engineered uprising and overthrow of an internationally-recognized government would also have occurred. Most likely not, as the populations of NATO nations are not allowed to elect, or if elect, keep any government Washington and Brussels view with disapprobation.

The envoy then made this provocative statement:

"Ukraine has no other choice: either we are part of an alliance such as NATO and are doing our part to make this Europe stronger, or we have the only option – to arm by ourselves, and maybe think about nuclear status again. How else can we guarantee our defense?"

He also claimed there were 90,000 Russian military personnel deployed to the Donbass border and to Crimea; in his words, "We are dealing with the largest troop movement in Russia since the Second World War." Which is arrant nonsense.


Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk
When the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991 a third of total Soviet nuclear weapons were in Ukraine; with 1,700 warheads in the country it had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after the US and Russia.

In 1994 Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon nation. It’s that decision the above-cited ambassador suggested be reversed. In fairness, this isn’t the first time the question of Ukraine developing its own nuclear weapons capacity has been broached.

Over the past twenty years NATO-trained military leaders have raised the issue. But never before, and never during a crisis remotely comparable to the present one, has the issue been phrased so brutally: either place Ukraine under NATO Article 5 mutual military assistance status – and NATO acknowledges itself a nuclear alliance – or Ukraine will reassert itself as a nuclear power.

The shelling of the Donbass will be mild in comparison to what an armed conflict between a nuclear Ukraine and nuclear Russia would portend.
 
M

Matt

Veteran Member
The Nyquist article indicates the Russian and Chinese will open with nukes. I remember Reagan making a joke at the podium about "the bombs begin falling in five minutes".

Would be quite ironic for Putin to quote ol' Reagan during his speech on the 21st, the day his get out of Ukraine ultimatum expires......and not be joking!

We begin bombing in five minutes - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
J

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
Matt said:
The Nyquist article indicates the Russian and Chinese will open with nukes. I remember Reagan making a joke at the podium about "the bombs begin falling in five minutes".

Would be quite ironic for Putin to quote ol' Reagan during his speech on the 21st, the day his get out of Ukraine ultimatum expires......and not be joking!

We begin bombing in five minutes - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
I think nukes will be a last resort. Russia needs the Ukraine for farming. I don't even see Russia nuking the US. Cyberattcks, yes, but not nukes.
 
M

Matt

Veteran Member
Lurker said:
Easy there....let's not start applying common sense. ;)
Click to expand...
Read Nyquist's article. Fallout is greatly over stated....it also addresses the "doctrine of the axe", use the worst weapon first.....it also addresses the "they won't use nukes" mentality of the west. Nyquist implies that they will open by nuking the US.

China has a saying, "execute the chicken and terrify the monkey".

Not so sure your view is necessarily "common sense"
 
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
The problem in warfare is that we project out rationales and assumptions into the minds of our opponents, but rarely do two people see things the same way.

For example, in chess you see your opponent move a piece a certain way, and you determine his next moves, not according to what he’s thinking, but according to what you’d be thinking if you were in his shoes. This can be a fatal mistake. It’s a form of psychological projection.

So, in Ukraine, the Russians may not see use of nukes, first strikes, and existential threats the same way we do. Their “common sense” may be to throw a knockout punch right into the face of NATO.

That’s why their massive troop movements must not be too narrowly interpreted. We don’t know for sure what they are thinking. We should prep and plan for all possibilities, and we should not assume anything.

In this case, a Russian bolt out of the blue nuclear first strike is indeed possible. That’s not woo. That’s not doom. It is one possibility. Countries and individuals would be wise to position themselves accordingly, just in case.
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
Russian warships pass through Bosphorus Strait to Black Sea - CGTN

Russian warships pass through Bosphorus Strait to Black Sea

Two Russian warships on Saturday passed through the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul towards the Black Sea and a detachment of 15 ships from the Russian Caspian Flotilla has also completed the transition to the Black Sea, local media reported.
Several Turkish coast guard boats accompanied the two warships during their passages through the 30-kilometer-long Bosphorus Strait, one of the world's busiest waterways, that connects the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea.

The detachment of warships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet has gone to sea to conduct artillery fire exercises, the Russian defense ministry announced on Wednesday.

(Cover: The Russian Navy's Ropucha-class landing ship Kondopoga passes through the Bosphorus on its way to the Black Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey, April 17, 2021. /Reuters)
 
Chance

Chance

Veteran Member
Zoner said:
Great essay by J. R. Nyquist

jrnyquist.blog

Are Russia and China Igniting a Third World War?

Surprise makes it possible to inflict heavy losses upon the enemy in short periods of time, to paralyze his will, and to deprive him of the possibility of offering organized resistance. Surprise is…
jrnyquist.blog jrnyquist.blog
Click to expand...
EVERYONE NEEDS TO READ THIS.

I live in silo alley, so the massive surprise nuclear attacks by Russia and China on America will more than likely end my life here.

So best of luck to those who survive.....I've enjoyed your company for some 20 years now.

See you on the other side!!! I'll be praying for you!

A surprise attack would make this impossible to write at the time...so why wait. :chg:
 
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Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Also, my parent's generation (not necessarily my parents) was full of people (even teachers) who believed to their dying day that using the A-Bomb in Japan to stop the war was "common sense."

Their argument (and you can make a case for it) was the one given out to the US public at the time, was pretty much that while destroying a city was horrific, it was better than the even more horrific loss of life an actual invasion of Japan by US and allied troops would result in.

Hand to hand fighting across the island with troops and civilians sworn to "die for the Emperor," was met with horror, made worse because some of these reports would probably have turned out to be true, that is hard to know because it the end it didn't happen.

Anyway, my point is to agree that what looks like "common sense" when it comes to ultra-destructive weapons is a matter of viewpoint and even the same nation may see it differently in different generations.
 
J

jpigott

Veteran Member
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ministry of Foreign Affairs of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Ukraine</a> says that the senior diplomat of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Russia</a>|n Embassy in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Kyiv?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Kyiv</a> must leave Ukraine within 72 hours, starting from April 19 - press service</p>&mdash; marqs (@MarQs__) <a href="
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383439312277020672
View: https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1383439312277020672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">April 17, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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