WEATHER Tropical Weather Time. Things are picking up in the Atlantic. 9/21/22 Hurricane Ian.

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
8-11 inches of rain for us on the east coast.
This is what we fear most. In my area 8+ inches in 48 hours ALWAYS signals flooding for at least 24 hours. I am talking 4+ feet deep where we live.

All of us who have lived here for a while have gotten used to this.

Funny thing is the old guy who owned all the land near the road just sold to a young guy and the new guy is building on the land.

We did ask the new guy what the heck he was thinking! He response was that he was told it was rough at times, but a good place for homes. We asked him to define rough. He pointed to where his tractors have sunk into the mud up to the middle of the tires or half the treads. He also said a few loads of dirt would solve that issue.

We both laughed ( neighbor and I ) as we explained that was normal wetness of the ground with a normal year of rain. Yeah, we are called Green Swamp for a reason! He was then told to look at the road height and told him that that is the height of the water once every 2-3 years when we get tropical storms..... note the road is ft above where he was standing....

The neighbor showed him his boat and the reason it was there was so that he could reach his house, when things got "rough".

The guy is now bringing a lot of dirt. Literally dozens of truck loads to raise the land.

We know he doesn't believe us totally even though we showed him pictures.

He currently has 3 pieces of expensive equipment that are below flood levels...... We are waiting to see what he does as this storm comes in......
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
This is what we fear most. In my area 8+ inches in 48 hours ALWAYS signals flooding for at least 24 hours. I am talking 4+ feet deep where we live.

All of us who have lived here for a while have gotten used to this.

Funny thing is the old guy who owned all the land near the road just sold to a young guy and the new guy is building on the land.

We did ask the new guy what the heck he was thinking! He response was that he was told it was rough at times, but a good place for homes. We asked him to define rough. He pointed to where his tractors have sunk into the mud up to the middle of the tires or half the treads. He also said a few loads of dirt would solve that issue.

We both laughed ( neighbor and I ) as we explained that was normal wetness of the ground with a normal year of rain. Yeah, we are called Green Swamp for a reason! He was then told to look at the road height and told him that that is the height of the water once every 2-3 years when we get tropical storms..... note the road is ft above where he was standing....

The neighbor showed him his boat and the reason it was there was so that he could reach his house, when things got "rough".

The guy is now bringing a lot of dirt. Literally dozens of truck loads to raise the land.

We know he doesn't believe us totally even though we showed him pictures.

He currently has 3 pieces of expensive equipment that are below flood levels...... We are waiting to see what he does as this storm comes in......

Look at those pretty palmettos in the yard. :lol:
 

day late

money? whats that?
This is what we fear most. In my area 8+ inches in 48 hours ALWAYS signals flooding for at least 24 hours. I am talking 4+ feet deep where we live.

All of us who have lived here for a while have gotten used to this.

Funny thing is the old guy who owned all the land near the road just sold to a young guy and the new guy is building on the land.

We did ask the new guy what the heck he was thinking! He response was that he was told it was rough at times, but a good place for homes. We asked him to define rough. He pointed to where his tractors have sunk into the mud up to the middle of the tires or half the treads. He also said a few loads of dirt would solve that issue.

We both laughed ( neighbor and I ) as we explained that was normal wetness of the ground with a normal year of rain. Yeah, we are called Green Swamp for a reason! He was then told to look at the road height and told him that that is the height of the water once every 2-3 years when we get tropical storms..... note the road is ft above where he was standing....

The neighbor showed him his boat and the reason it was there was so that he could reach his house, when things got "rough".

The guy is now bringing a lot of dirt. Literally dozens of truck loads to raise the land.

We know he doesn't believe us totally even though we showed him pictures.

He currently has 3 pieces of expensive equipment that are below flood levels...... We are waiting to see what he does as this storm comes in......

If this is the same Green Swamp where I've been hunting a few times, it is well named.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

Chevron stops production two Gulf of Mexico oil facilities ahead of hurricane​

Sep. 26, 2022 2:19 PM ET Chevron Corporation (CVX)By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said Monday it is moving workers to safety and temporarily shutting in production at two oil production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution ahead of Hurricane Ian, which is strengthening as it is predicted to make landfall in northwest Florida.

The Petronius and Blind Faith platforms produce a combined ~120K bbl/day of crude oil, a small portion of total offshore production of 1.8M bbl/day.

Total Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production accounts for ~16% of total U.S. production, while offshore gas production amounts to 5% of total U.S. production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Chevron (CVX) shares -1.7% in Monday's trading as nearly all energy stocks on the S&P 500 are lower with crude oil falling sharply.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
2:00 update.

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South Florida is already seeing feeder bands.
 

Buick Electra

TB2K Girls with Guns

Update, Hurricane Ian Starts Northward Shift – Expected to Become Major Hurricane Tonight, West Coast of Florida Prepare​


September 26, 2022 | sundance | 50 Comments

[National Hurricane Center Link] Ian is now a hurricane and expected to intensify quickly tonight and tomorrow exiting the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. Cone of probability for landfall arrival in the U.S. is still fluctuating. However, all west coast Florida residents should be finalizing their preparations today and tomorrow. Our chainsaws are sharpened, gear packed, toolboxes loaded. Today, we finish securing our property.

As a general rule, take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water. Dangerous coastal area storm surges are now predicted from Fort Myers north into Tampa Bay (south side of storm). Please outline your communication plan with your family. Select a specific person outside the area to be your immediate contact. That person then relays information to the rest of your family. Please do this [Example Why].

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. (link)
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Right now, you are in control. Do not be alarmed – but take every preventative measure your individual situation needs. Work your hurricane plan and stay focused on what you do control. Proactive planning prevents piss-poor performance. Work the plan, step by step and focus on what is in front of you. Ignore the dark imaginings and turn off the national media. Pay attention to your local officials and local media.

Do your laundry. Sanitize and stage your water storage. Inventory your supplies. Organize your tools. Fill your freezer with water jugs to take up room and freeze. Test your generator. Stage your extension cords. Stage your battery powered devices. Test your weather radio. Take small steps to prepare. Secure your home. You are in full control.

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The #1 priority is to keep calm. Keep stable. If other people around you are panicked, do not let it impact your plan. Stay focused. Stay organized. Stay in control. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for everyone around you and your family.

Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Everything is replaceable, except you and your family. We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.

Right now, you are in control. Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria. Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Monday afternoon/evening looks like the key day impact zones will be identified. Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything. Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.

Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation. As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation.

For those in the cone of uncertainty; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead. Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Monday the decision time-frame. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.

DAY ONE (Sat/Sun)

  • Determine Your Risk
  • Make a Written Plan
  • Develop an Evacuation Plan
  • Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
  • Withdraw cash based on plan/need.
  • Get gas and storm supplies
DAY TWO (Sun/Mon)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Assemble and purchase any missing Hurricane Supplies
  • Contact Insurance Company – Updates
  • Secure Important Papers.
  • Update/upload your phone data.
  • Strengthen and Secure Your Home
  • Discuss Evacuation Decision with your Family.
  • Fill freezer with 3/4 full water jugs.
DAY THREE (Tue/Wed)

  • Get Storm Update
  • Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
  • Finish last minute preparation
  • Plan for a minimum of THREE DAYS without power
  • Assist Your Neighbors
  • If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
.

Communication is important. Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.

Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.

Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status. Fill car with gasoline. Review prescriptions, refill if needed.

Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.

Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.

One possible proactive measure is to make a hotel reservation further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Follow updates of the storms’ progress; make reservations if determined; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family. Make the booking decision in the next 36 hrs.

♦ Look over the National Hurricane Center resources for planning assistance.
♦ Also a great resource – CREATE A PLAN
 

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
Evac.

Let the crazy begin.

I had to go out and pick up a few things ... not hurricane related but some cleaners for an apartment we are turning.

O. M. G. The crazies have been out since Saturday but they got a steroid shot today.

Schools in Hillsborough and Pasco counties have been closed for the entire week. I expect Pinellas to follow shortly if they haven't already. There's no water in any of the stores and we are already getting demands from some of our more idiotic tenants demanding that we buy some for them. [insert nuclear eye roll] We have calls coming in asking when we are going to plywood the windows. They want generators on stand by. I wanted to say something rude but managed to keep my mouth shut, but just barely.

I'm not too worried about the storm. It is an act of God and is what it is. The crazies on the other hand? I wished they all move back where they came from.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
They're evacuating Tampa but not St. Pete??!! I'll have to go look. Yup, "Get Out NOW"

Pinellas officials urge evacuation ahead of Ian: ‘Get out right now’​

St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch: ‘This could be the storm that we’ve hoped would never come.’



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psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I bet we see another bump to the east at the 8:00 update.

That front is pushing it.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif
Bamwx is saying that’s the biggest worry right now too.
I *think, that’s their prediction of happening but I’ve not had time to watch their video. :(
 

Bud in Fla

Veteran Member
The red ends at Anclote River - I guess all of us above that line will have to measure the storm surge ourselves! This is called the Big Bend or Nature Coast. Neat names for swamp & marsh! There are no sandy beaches for a LONG way north of that! Crystal River list it's elevation at 4 ft. Homosassa lists it's elevation as 0! Our elevation is listed as 49 ft so I'm feeling relaxed about the storm surge in my neighborhood.

I was 1 month old in SC when Hazel almost took Myrtle Beach off the map. I'm 71 now. I was living on Long Beach, NC (Southport) and rode out Diana in '84. We rode out Hugo in Florence, SC in '89. We had TS Andrea our first year in Fl in '13. Lot of hype and no storm for that one. The two worst storms I've seen were Hugo and a derecho that took out power for a couple of weeks near Beckley, WV.

The thing about hurricane coverage that's always ticked me off it the way they tell new to the South people that "this is the worst storm ever recorded" or This storm is gonna kill everything big enough to die! A few limbs down and a couple of plastic chairs knocked over and that's it and the people that have never seen a REAL hurricane quit taking them seriously!
 

Bud in Fla

Veteran Member
I had to go out and pick up a few things ... not hurricane related but some cleaners for an apartment we are turning.

O. M. G. The crazies have been out since Saturday but they got a steroid shot today.

Schools in Hillsborough and Pasco counties have been closed for the entire week. I expect Pinellas to follow shortly if they haven't already. There's no water in any of the stores and we are already getting demands from some of our more idiotic tenants demanding that we buy some for them. [insert nuclear eye roll] We have calls coming in asking when we are going to plywood the windows. They want generators on stand by. I wanted to say something rude but managed to keep my mouth shut, but just barely.

I'm not too worried about the storm. It is an act of God and is what it is. The crazies on the other hand? I wished they all move back where they came from.
You did get your bread & milk didn't you?!!!!
Even if you don't use them, it's a southern hurricane tradition to buy all you can!
(We didn't buy any, either)
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
I had to go out and pick up a few things ... not hurricane related but some cleaners for an apartment we are turning.

O. M. G. The crazies have been out since Saturday but they got a steroid shot today.

Schools in Hillsborough and Pasco counties have been closed for the entire week. I expect Pinellas to follow shortly if they haven't already. There's no water in any of the stores and we are already getting demands from some of our more idiotic tenants demanding that we buy some for them. [insert nuclear eye roll] We have calls coming in asking when we are going to plywood the windows. They want generators on stand by. I wanted to say something rude but managed to keep my mouth shut, but just barely.

I'm not too worried about the storm. It is an act of God and is what it is. The crazies on the other hand? I wished they all move back where they came from.

I could use a generator if you've got a spare! :xpnd: I didn't realize that as landlord this was your responsibility to provide generators. Should ask them where in the universal housing code that this is a requirement. :rolleyes:
 

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB
My sister-in-law lives in an RV park just south of Tampa. She’ll be leaving early tomorrow to come up here for a few days. Hopefully the traffic won’t be too awful.

I’d hate for her to evacuate to here and have Ian follow. That’s what happened to us with Rita. What a mess!

Prayers going out for friends in Florida- Kathy, Bud, TerryK (anyone heard from/about him lately?), Seabird, Ragnarok, etc, etc. I can’t remember them all. I think thinwater is down there somewhere.
 
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Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
I've NEVER see the roads this busy. Bumper to bumper down almost every side street and forget about the main streets. Lots of gas stations out of gas, already. Grocery stores look like a tornado went through. Plenty of frozen goods but not a canned good in sight. Water is gone ( but not beer, thankfully! ).

It's getting crazy out there!

And, I might have to work ( our building is directly across the street from the Gulf )!
 
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