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A large reset is needed.
Solar The Grand Solar Minimum (ORIGINAL)
- Thread starter von Koehler
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A large reset is needed.
Our adobe is always chilly unless the heat is going. That bothered me the first couple of years, but since I got used to it (and habitually dressed for it), I've come to prefer it. The house doesn't hit the extreme temps the outside does. The tiny bedroom has a gas heater. The rest of the house doesn't get heated unless we bother to light the wood stove in the kitchen, or the pellet stove in the living room.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Just for Melodi:
Famine in Ireland
The winter of 1813/1814 was very severe in Great Britain. It was remembered in many parts of England as the year of the “Great Frost”. “All over the country the mail coaches had to cease running, and in many instances were abandoned in the snow, the letters being sent on by the guards on horseback. And even this means of conveyance proved unavailing in some localities, for when the snow lay four feet deep in the streets of the great towns, it may be fairly presumed that it proved a much more serious obstacle in the country.” 29 “The winter of 1813-1814 would eventually be considered ‘one of the four or five coldest winters in the CET [Central England Temperature] record.’ The winter was also cold enough that the Thames became so solidly frozen someone dared take an elephant across it below the Blackfriars Bridge.” 28 On 11 January 1814, it was reported, “The quantity of snow which has fallen in the upper part of Hampshire, and on the Hind Head is very great, lying in many places fifteen feet deep.” 17 On 13 January it was reported at Dublin, Ireland that there was an uncommon depth of snow and the streets appeared yesterday almost deserted.17 At Nottinghamshire, England it was reported that after a dark, wet and cold start to spring, it remained very cold with some snow and sharp frosts through May, while June was also cold.15 Just as in England, the winter was very severe in Ireland. The scarcity of food was severely felt by the Irish poor in 1814 in consequence of the failure of the potato crop.19 The scarcity of the potato crop in Ireland in 1814 was due to the severity of the winter combined with a shortened growing season.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
[Here's a typical story of how bad a Solar Minimum can be. A sad and tragic story; nothing to dismiss out of hand.]
“Cold Friday” Bomb Cyclone
The “Cold Friday” of 19 January 1810 was a lethal event because the great winds and the sudden, steep drop in temperature, which caught many people off guard. At the coastal New England city of Boston, Massachusetts, the temperature dropped 57º F (31.7 ºC) in less than 24 hours. The coastal city of Portsmouth, New Hampshire experienced a 54º F drop. The ocean moderates temperatures and inland regions experienced greater extremes. In Cheshire County, New Hampshire, the temperature dropped
63º F within 12 hours. At Warren, New Hampshire the temperature fell from 43º F to -25º F in 16 hours, a temperature drop of 68° F. Several journals claimed the mercury dropped 100 degrees in less than 24 hours, from 67° F to -33° F. During the daylong storm, the heavens roared like the sea in a cyclone. Thousands of farmyard fowl were blown away and never seen again; rabbits, partridges and crows were frozen in the thickest woods; young cattle were frozen solid as they huddled together in the half open barnyard sheds. Great oaks were twisted by the force of the wind like withes in the hands of giants. Barns were swept to ruin, and shed of lighter construction were carried away by the storm of wind like chaff. Many people froze to death while traveling on the highways. Houses, barns and vast number of timber trees were blown down or broken to pieces. Ships were wrecked. Old people died of hypothermia in their homes. It was so cold that pens wouldn’t write even though they were right next to a fireplace.19, 35, 36, 49, 50
The intensity of this storm can be described by the plight of one family. “On Friday morning, the 19 of January, Mr. Jeremiah Ellsworth, of that town [Sanbornton, New Hampshire], finding the cold very severe, rose about an hour before sunrise. It was but a short time before some part of his house was burst in by the wind. Being apprehensive that the whole house would soon be demolished, and that the lives of the family were in great jeopardy, Mrs. [Abigail] Ellsworth, with her youngest child [little Mary], whom she had dressed, went into the cellar, leaving the other two children in bed. [Sally and Alvah. Sally was the oldest at 5 ½ years old.] Her husband attempted to go to the nearest neighbor, which was in a north direction, for assistance; but the wind was so strong against him that he found it impracticable. He then set out for Mr. David Brown’s, the nearest house in another direction, at the distance of a quarter of a mile. He reached there about sunrise, his feet being considerably frozen, and he so overcome by the cold, that both he and Mr. Brown thought it too hazardous for him to return. But Mr. Brown went with his horse and sleigh with all possible speed, to save the woman and her children from impending destruction. When he arrived at the house, he found Mrs. Ellsworth and one child in the cellar, and the other children in bed, their clothes having been blown away by the wind, so that they could not be dressed. Mr. Brown put a bed into the sleigh, and placed the three children upon it, and covered them with the bed clothes. Mrs. E. also got into the sleigh. They had proceeded only six or eight rods [A rod is 16 ½ feet.] before the sleigh was blown over, and the children, bed and covering were scattered by the wind. Mrs. Ellsworth held the horse while Mr. Brown collected the children and bed, and placed them in the sleigh again. She then concluded to walk, but before she reached Mr. Brown’s house, she was so benumbed by the cold, that she sunk down to the ground, finding it impossible to walk any further. At first she concluded she must perish, but stimulated by a hope of escape, she made another effort by crawling on her hands and knees, in which manner she reached her husband, but so altered in her looks that he did not at first know her. His anxiety for his children led him twice to conclude to go to their assistance; but the earnest importunities of his wife, who supposed he would perish, and that she should survive but a short time, prevented him. Mr. Brown having placed the children in the sleigh a second time, had proceeded but a few rods when the sleigh was blown over and torn to pieces, and the children driven to some distance. He then collected them once more, laid them on the bed and covered them; and then called for help, but to no purpose. Knowing that the children must soon perish in that situation, and being pierced to the heart by their distressing shrieks, he wrapped them all in a coverlet, and attempted to carry them on his shoulder; but was soon blown down, and the children separated from him by the violence of the wind. Finding it impossible to carry them all, he left the youngest [little Mary], the one who happened to be dressed, placing it [her] by the side of a large log. He then attempted to carry the other two, but was soon stopped as before. He then took them, one under each arm, with no other clothing than their shirts, and in this way though blown down every few rods, he arrived at his house, after having been absent about two hours. The children, though frozen stiff, were alive, but died within a few minutes. Mr. Brown’s hands and feet were badly frozen, and he was so much chilled and exhausted as to be unable to return for the child left behind. The wind continued its severity, and no neighbor called until the afternoon, when there was every reason to believe the child left was dead. Towards sunset, a physician and some other neighbors having arrived, several of whom went in search of the other child, which was found and brought in dead. The lives of the parents were saved, but they were left childless.” 51
“Cold Friday” Bomb Cyclone
The “Cold Friday” of 19 January 1810 was a lethal event because the great winds and the sudden, steep drop in temperature, which caught many people off guard. At the coastal New England city of Boston, Massachusetts, the temperature dropped 57º F (31.7 ºC) in less than 24 hours. The coastal city of Portsmouth, New Hampshire experienced a 54º F drop. The ocean moderates temperatures and inland regions experienced greater extremes. In Cheshire County, New Hampshire, the temperature dropped
63º F within 12 hours. At Warren, New Hampshire the temperature fell from 43º F to -25º F in 16 hours, a temperature drop of 68° F. Several journals claimed the mercury dropped 100 degrees in less than 24 hours, from 67° F to -33° F. During the daylong storm, the heavens roared like the sea in a cyclone. Thousands of farmyard fowl were blown away and never seen again; rabbits, partridges and crows were frozen in the thickest woods; young cattle were frozen solid as they huddled together in the half open barnyard sheds. Great oaks were twisted by the force of the wind like withes in the hands of giants. Barns were swept to ruin, and shed of lighter construction were carried away by the storm of wind like chaff. Many people froze to death while traveling on the highways. Houses, barns and vast number of timber trees were blown down or broken to pieces. Ships were wrecked. Old people died of hypothermia in their homes. It was so cold that pens wouldn’t write even though they were right next to a fireplace.19, 35, 36, 49, 50
The intensity of this storm can be described by the plight of one family. “On Friday morning, the 19 of January, Mr. Jeremiah Ellsworth, of that town [Sanbornton, New Hampshire], finding the cold very severe, rose about an hour before sunrise. It was but a short time before some part of his house was burst in by the wind. Being apprehensive that the whole house would soon be demolished, and that the lives of the family were in great jeopardy, Mrs. [Abigail] Ellsworth, with her youngest child [little Mary], whom she had dressed, went into the cellar, leaving the other two children in bed. [Sally and Alvah. Sally was the oldest at 5 ½ years old.] Her husband attempted to go to the nearest neighbor, which was in a north direction, for assistance; but the wind was so strong against him that he found it impracticable. He then set out for Mr. David Brown’s, the nearest house in another direction, at the distance of a quarter of a mile. He reached there about sunrise, his feet being considerably frozen, and he so overcome by the cold, that both he and Mr. Brown thought it too hazardous for him to return. But Mr. Brown went with his horse and sleigh with all possible speed, to save the woman and her children from impending destruction. When he arrived at the house, he found Mrs. Ellsworth and one child in the cellar, and the other children in bed, their clothes having been blown away by the wind, so that they could not be dressed. Mr. Brown put a bed into the sleigh, and placed the three children upon it, and covered them with the bed clothes. Mrs. E. also got into the sleigh. They had proceeded only six or eight rods [A rod is 16 ½ feet.] before the sleigh was blown over, and the children, bed and covering were scattered by the wind. Mrs. Ellsworth held the horse while Mr. Brown collected the children and bed, and placed them in the sleigh again. She then concluded to walk, but before she reached Mr. Brown’s house, she was so benumbed by the cold, that she sunk down to the ground, finding it impossible to walk any further. At first she concluded she must perish, but stimulated by a hope of escape, she made another effort by crawling on her hands and knees, in which manner she reached her husband, but so altered in her looks that he did not at first know her. His anxiety for his children led him twice to conclude to go to their assistance; but the earnest importunities of his wife, who supposed he would perish, and that she should survive but a short time, prevented him. Mr. Brown having placed the children in the sleigh a second time, had proceeded but a few rods when the sleigh was blown over and torn to pieces, and the children driven to some distance. He then collected them once more, laid them on the bed and covered them; and then called for help, but to no purpose. Knowing that the children must soon perish in that situation, and being pierced to the heart by their distressing shrieks, he wrapped them all in a coverlet, and attempted to carry them on his shoulder; but was soon blown down, and the children separated from him by the violence of the wind. Finding it impossible to carry them all, he left the youngest [little Mary], the one who happened to be dressed, placing it [her] by the side of a large log. He then attempted to carry the other two, but was soon stopped as before. He then took them, one under each arm, with no other clothing than their shirts, and in this way though blown down every few rods, he arrived at his house, after having been absent about two hours. The children, though frozen stiff, were alive, but died within a few minutes. Mr. Brown’s hands and feet were badly frozen, and he was so much chilled and exhausted as to be unable to return for the child left behind. The wind continued its severity, and no neighbor called until the afternoon, when there was every reason to believe the child left was dead. Towards sunset, a physician and some other neighbors having arrived, several of whom went in search of the other child, which was found and brought in dead. The lives of the parents were saved, but they were left childless.” 51
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
According to reconstructed data, the American South West became more arid and subject to frequent droughts.
von Koehler
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
As you might imagine, there's a huge debate going on about "man-made" global warming.
I will just point out, based on Greenland ice core studies, increases in CO 2 FOLLOWS increases in temperature, not precedes it.
von Koehler
Martinhouse
Deceased
Yesterday I ordered seeds for mangel beets. Something to feed chickens and rabbits in the winter if it becomes too cold to forage year round any more here in Arkansas.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Solar Cycle 25 Prediction. We find that the polar fields indicate that Cycle 25 will be similar in size to (or slightly smaller than) the current small cycle, Cycle 24. Small cycles, like Cycle 24, start late and leave behind long cycles with deep extended minima. Therefor, we expect a similar deep, extended minimum for the Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2020.
We find that the average strength of the polar fields near the end of Cycle 24 will be similar to (or slightly weaker) that measured near the end of Cycle 23, indicating that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength (or slightly weaker) to the current cycle. After four years of simulation the variability across our ensemble indicates that the accumulated uncertainty is on the order of about 15%. This uncertainty arises from stochastic variations in the convective motion details, the active region tilt, and changes in the meridional flow. In addition, small cycles (like cycle 24) are typically preceded by long extended minima, and so we expect a similar long extended minimum before Cycle 25.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
[main idea is that current cycle 24 is about what cycle 12 was]
The Magnetic Butterfly Diagram illustrates how the distribution of magnetic flux changes over time. Sunspots appear in bands on either side of the equator. Cycles typically overlap by 2-3 years. At the beginning of each cycle, the active regions emerge at latitudes of about 30 degrees. As the cycle progresses, the active regions emerge closer and closer to the equator, an effect known as Sporer’s Law. Cancellation of polarity across the equator leaves behind an excess of following polarity that is transported to the poles. The north and south poles have opposite polarities that reverse from cycle to cycle. The timing of this polar field reversal is near the time of the solar cycle maximum.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Up here in Portland, Oregon is February 20th, 2018. And right now it is snowing in downtown Portland, with up to 7 INCHES of snow by morning. By Portland standards, this is unprecedented, both because of the lateness, two thirds into February, and the amount of snow fall. This is the second year in a row where Portland has gotten snow events, last year we had 12 inches fall, and now we are looking at 7 inches maybe.
Yep, between the sun "cooling off," and the multiple volcanoes spewing ash, we may have a repeat of 11816's "year of no summer." I hope everybody has bought a lot of food, wheat and grains and fruit especially, since we may see a global reduction of wheat by 10 to 30 percent. We are also right on the edge where even a 5 percent reduction in global wheat, or rice, production will result in famine and tens of millions of third world people starving to death. It is a fact that the only reason large populations in the third world are fed year by year is the imported grain supplies, usually shipped from the first world countries.
Africa in particular is hovering on the edge of famine.
Yep, between the sun "cooling off," and the multiple volcanoes spewing ash, we may have a repeat of 11816's "year of no summer." I hope everybody has bought a lot of food, wheat and grains and fruit especially, since we may see a global reduction of wheat by 10 to 30 percent. We are also right on the edge where even a 5 percent reduction in global wheat, or rice, production will result in famine and tens of millions of third world people starving to death. It is a fact that the only reason large populations in the third world are fed year by year is the imported grain supplies, usually shipped from the first world countries.
Africa in particular is hovering on the edge of famine.
Yes the Volcano factor and its a multiplier for colder weather, Now this week Indonesa's Sinabong volcano erupted twice and the second eruption was a really big one.
Ok; while this is happening its had to tell how much damage it did, so now all the ash and dust is down and the eruption took to top of the volcano mountain off.
FarmerJohn
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Only the top of the mountain off?
I've found no VEI rating for Mt. Sinabung yet. I suspect that it was a one or two; no more than local effect.
I've found no VEI rating for Mt. Sinabung yet. I suspect that it was a one or two; no more than local effect.
Found some video footage of the eruption and I think they said it blew the ash 16 miles up.
The video is 5:39 minutes long the action of the eruption starts at 0:32 seconds, there is other footage of the ash colum later in the video and allot of hot ash cloud going down the volcano and yeah it carbonized everything in it path, but they claimed it killed no one as they were told to get out days ago.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISBYYi5H8f0
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
[For Melodi, got peat?]
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...BC-news-forecast-Met-Office-cold-latest-today
Arctic air, snow to blast the UK next week
International Weather
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
February 22, 2018, 7:16:10 AM EST
Brutal cold is on the way to the United Kingdom as air from Siberia will travel to the British Isles and could bring some snow.
The setup for this extreme cold, often referred to as the “Beast from the East,” will involve a strong area of high pressure over Scandinavia pulling arctic air from western Siberia across northern Europe and to the U.K. by Sunday.
Southern and eastern parts of England will record the lowest temperatures, a contrast to the cold outbreaks of earlier this winter which focused the most intense cold over central and northern areas.
UK 2/21
However, this could bring even colder conditions to some of the areas that reported the lowest temperatures in years during December.
High temperatures to start next week will range from 2 C (35 F) in parts of eastern and southern England to around 7 C (45 F) in western Northern Ireland.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing across most of England on Monday night with only coastal locations in Northern Ireland and western Scotland hovering near or just above zero C (32 F).
This stubborn arctic air will remain across the U.K. into next weekend; however, the most intense cold is expected from Monday through Wednesday.
Any moderation of temperatures during the second half of the week will be minor, and both high and low temperatures will remain several degrees below normal for late February and early March.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...BC-news-forecast-Met-Office-cold-latest-today
Arctic air, snow to blast the UK next week
International Weather
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
February 22, 2018, 7:16:10 AM EST
Brutal cold is on the way to the United Kingdom as air from Siberia will travel to the British Isles and could bring some snow.
The setup for this extreme cold, often referred to as the “Beast from the East,” will involve a strong area of high pressure over Scandinavia pulling arctic air from western Siberia across northern Europe and to the U.K. by Sunday.
Southern and eastern parts of England will record the lowest temperatures, a contrast to the cold outbreaks of earlier this winter which focused the most intense cold over central and northern areas.
UK 2/21
However, this could bring even colder conditions to some of the areas that reported the lowest temperatures in years during December.
High temperatures to start next week will range from 2 C (35 F) in parts of eastern and southern England to around 7 C (45 F) in western Northern Ireland.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing across most of England on Monday night with only coastal locations in Northern Ireland and western Scotland hovering near or just above zero C (32 F).
This stubborn arctic air will remain across the U.K. into next weekend; however, the most intense cold is expected from Monday through Wednesday.
Any moderation of temperatures during the second half of the week will be minor, and both high and low temperatures will remain several degrees below normal for late February and early March.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
[Last time this group of volcanoes were active was during the Dalton Minimum; "The Year Without A Summer."]
Mayon rumbles
February 23, 2018
By Ellalyn V. Ruiz
Mayon Volcano spewed incandescent lava fountains and ash plumes as it continues to exhibit increased activity in the past 24 hours.
Between 7:34 a.m. Wednesday and 4:06 a.m. Thursday, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology recorded 80 discrete seismic events associated with obscured lava fountaining that lasted two to 49 minutes and were accompanied by rumbling and chugging sounds audible beyond 10 kilometers of the volcano summit.
Incandescent lava fountains up to 100 to 600 meters generated dirty white to gray ash plumes that rose 100 to 800 meters from the summit before drifting west-southwest to southwest.
Phivolcs added that seven episodes of lava-collapse pyroclastic density current or pyroclastic flows were visually observed between 1:44 p.m. and 3:05 p.m. last Wednesday, depositing on Miisi, Basud, and Bonga-Buyuan Gullies within two kilometers of the summit crater.
Lava flows were sustained at 3.3 kilometers, 4.5 kilometers, and 900 meters on the Miisi, Bonga, and Basud Gullies, respectively, Phivolcs noted.
Mayon rumbles
February 23, 2018
By Ellalyn V. Ruiz
Mayon Volcano spewed incandescent lava fountains and ash plumes as it continues to exhibit increased activity in the past 24 hours.
Between 7:34 a.m. Wednesday and 4:06 a.m. Thursday, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology recorded 80 discrete seismic events associated with obscured lava fountaining that lasted two to 49 minutes and were accompanied by rumbling and chugging sounds audible beyond 10 kilometers of the volcano summit.
Incandescent lava fountains up to 100 to 600 meters generated dirty white to gray ash plumes that rose 100 to 800 meters from the summit before drifting west-southwest to southwest.
Phivolcs added that seven episodes of lava-collapse pyroclastic density current or pyroclastic flows were visually observed between 1:44 p.m. and 3:05 p.m. last Wednesday, depositing on Miisi, Basud, and Bonga-Buyuan Gullies within two kilometers of the summit crater.
Lava flows were sustained at 3.3 kilometers, 4.5 kilometers, and 900 meters on the Miisi, Bonga, and Basud Gullies, respectively, Phivolcs noted.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZkGU5hESdE
3:58 minutes
To put this into perspective, the Grand Solar Minimum is just starting; it could last for at least 30 to 50 years.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Southern Star
http://www.southernstar.ie/news/rou...er-warning-with-extreme-cold-snap-on-the-way/
Weather warning with extreme cold snap on the way
Sunday, 25th February, 2018 12:54pm
Story by Kieran O'Mahony
Weather warning with extreme cold snap on the way
Update 11am 26/02/2018: This weather alert has been extended to the south, with "a spell of persistent and heavy snow expected to extend from the south late Thursday and Thursday night, with significant and disruptive accumulations."
MET Eireann has issued a weather alert from Tuesday until Saturday of this week. Exceptional cold weather is expected with air and ground temperatures expected to be five to 10 degrees below normal, with significant wind chill and penetrating severe frosts.
Snow showers, mainly affecting eastern areas on Tuesday, will progressively become more widespread and heavier through midweek, with significant and disruptive accumulations.
See www.winterready.ie for more information.
http://www.southernstar.ie/news/rou...er-warning-with-extreme-cold-snap-on-the-way/
Weather warning with extreme cold snap on the way
Sunday, 25th February, 2018 12:54pm
Story by Kieran O'Mahony
Weather warning with extreme cold snap on the way
Update 11am 26/02/2018: This weather alert has been extended to the south, with "a spell of persistent and heavy snow expected to extend from the south late Thursday and Thursday night, with significant and disruptive accumulations."
MET Eireann has issued a weather alert from Tuesday until Saturday of this week. Exceptional cold weather is expected with air and ground temperatures expected to be five to 10 degrees below normal, with significant wind chill and penetrating severe frosts.
Snow showers, mainly affecting eastern areas on Tuesday, will progressively become more widespread and heavier through midweek, with significant and disruptive accumulations.
See www.winterready.ie for more information.
almost ready
Inactive
I'm sure that we received countless warnings that the last solar maximum was going to be huge and hot. Have all those government roaches scurried under the sink when their prognosis turned out to be 180 degrees in the wrong direction?
Just wondering. Always worked in the private sector, where there are still consequences. Drain the frigging swamp!
Yes, it's cold. Not at all sanguine about the crappy weather. Shoulder sore from snow shoveling.
Just wondering. Always worked in the private sector, where there are still consequences. Drain the frigging swamp!
Yes, it's cold. Not at all sanguine about the crappy weather. Shoulder sore from snow shoveling.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Yes, we have turf, the chimney sweep is also supposed to be here early tomorrow morning to try to get the blockage in our kitchen turf stove; if not we have a back up we can cook and heat water on in the drawing room (if the power goes out).
I just read they are talking about the potential for 19 inches of snow in the East (Dublin etc) and I just hope they are exaggerating or scaring people to stay home with a "worst case.
Husband will be trying to get home on Friday but he has some extra cash just in case, thankfully our hotel likes us so I imagine they will let him stay in the lobby if they don't have a room that evening.
Understand that Ireland doesn't get this sort of weather often (last time was 2010, and before that 1982); when we do it is usually these weird Eastern moving storms that then (as tonight's weather lady said) "battle it out" over Ireland with the usual Atlantic fronts.
She said this might even bring more thundersnow, which isn't rare for Colorado but almost never happens here (but did two weeks ago).
If they really get even a foot of snow (much less nearly 20 inches) Dublin etc will simply SHUT DOWN, until the snow melts and it may stay frozen for several days (in 2010 it was about a week).
They do have some snow plows and salt now, but no one has chains and out here the only things on the road are likely to be tractors, a few trucks and land rovers - housemate and I are prepared to be locked in for a week if we have to; but I do hope the kitchen stove is sorted by tomorrow it is much easier to cook on than the one upstairs; for one thing it has an oven.
Not to mention it keeps the downstairs cats warmer and the dogs since we won't be able to keep them out all day (they already come in every night) but it is going to be too cold even for cold-adapted dogs (like 14Fdegrees or lower).
I'll keep posting as long as we have power or phone signals - phone posts will be short, again I hope they are wrong but it is already bitterly cold outside and the snow isn't due until tomorrow night.
I just read they are talking about the potential for 19 inches of snow in the East (Dublin etc) and I just hope they are exaggerating or scaring people to stay home with a "worst case.
Husband will be trying to get home on Friday but he has some extra cash just in case, thankfully our hotel likes us so I imagine they will let him stay in the lobby if they don't have a room that evening.
Understand that Ireland doesn't get this sort of weather often (last time was 2010, and before that 1982); when we do it is usually these weird Eastern moving storms that then (as tonight's weather lady said) "battle it out" over Ireland with the usual Atlantic fronts.
She said this might even bring more thundersnow, which isn't rare for Colorado but almost never happens here (but did two weeks ago).
If they really get even a foot of snow (much less nearly 20 inches) Dublin etc will simply SHUT DOWN, until the snow melts and it may stay frozen for several days (in 2010 it was about a week).
They do have some snow plows and salt now, but no one has chains and out here the only things on the road are likely to be tractors, a few trucks and land rovers - housemate and I are prepared to be locked in for a week if we have to; but I do hope the kitchen stove is sorted by tomorrow it is much easier to cook on than the one upstairs; for one thing it has an oven.
Not to mention it keeps the downstairs cats warmer and the dogs since we won't be able to keep them out all day (they already come in every night) but it is going to be too cold even for cold-adapted dogs (like 14Fdegrees or lower).
I'll keep posting as long as we have power or phone signals - phone posts will be short, again I hope they are wrong but it is already bitterly cold outside and the snow isn't due until tomorrow night.
FarmerJohn
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Got a link for that?
almost ready
Inactive
A couple of links
http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu05spacewx/ele_grandmin1_e.htm
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09...ich-turned-out-to-be-the-lowest-in-100-years/
The second link has other links available that created the "consensus" belief in 2006 re the solar cycle that was expected to peak in 2011-2012. In 2007, the prediction began to be reconsidered by many, and there was debate from that point.
FarmerJohn
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Interesting.
I found an article from Earth Magazine from 2012 (the last solar maximum) in which the authors say:
"From the mid-17th century to the early 18th century, sunspot activity dropped off the charts in a period now called the Maunder Minimum. “There were basically no sunspots for 70 years,” Kunches says. Scientists don’t know why this occurred, he says, nor do they know when it might happen again. In fact, he adds, “some scientists think we’re about to enter one of those periods.”
The article was well-written and did cover the increased likelihood of a Carrington-level event in the period of a protracted solar minimum. That's a lot creepier than the possibility of a solar push toward a cooler climate at the same time that greenhouse gasses reflecting infrared back down push the climate higher.
I found an article from Earth Magazine from 2012 (the last solar maximum) in which the authors say:
"From the mid-17th century to the early 18th century, sunspot activity dropped off the charts in a period now called the Maunder Minimum. “There were basically no sunspots for 70 years,” Kunches says. Scientists don’t know why this occurred, he says, nor do they know when it might happen again. In fact, he adds, “some scientists think we’re about to enter one of those periods.”
The article was well-written and did cover the increased likelihood of a Carrington-level event in the period of a protracted solar minimum. That's a lot creepier than the possibility of a solar push toward a cooler climate at the same time that greenhouse gasses reflecting infrared back down push the climate higher.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Snow is starting to stick hard in Dublin, the husband has given notice to the hotel and plans to come home in the morning; the worst is supposed to hit Thursday and Friday when a storm in warmer waters from Portugal rushes North and crashes into the on-going Air from Siberia.
If things go as predicted, the government plans pretty much to put the country on Red Alert and shut things down; including buses, trains, schools etc, hotels are being booked for police, hospitals are setting up beds for staff and the civil defense and military are on standby.
Housemate does civil defense so I'm glad that husband can come home (school is closing) because I don't want to be alone in this and she may very well be out doing her volunteer job - she is "on call" for the next six days, I can't remember when that has happened before.
I think if this was just the one Weather front, it would just be like it was a few years ago - two days and one night of snow and wind, followed by it sitting around for a few more days- the storm crashing into the storm; plus the Atlantic front (so a three-way storm "crash") is a bit worrying.
But the stoves are both going well, we've got plenty of fuel, food, and water; I'll be more relaxed once Nighwolf gets back here, but otherwise things are not bad yet; though I gather things are already pretty bad in the UK - London is covered in snow and that is rare.
If things go as predicted, the government plans pretty much to put the country on Red Alert and shut things down; including buses, trains, schools etc, hotels are being booked for police, hospitals are setting up beds for staff and the civil defense and military are on standby.
Housemate does civil defense so I'm glad that husband can come home (school is closing) because I don't want to be alone in this and she may very well be out doing her volunteer job - she is "on call" for the next six days, I can't remember when that has happened before.
I think if this was just the one Weather front, it would just be like it was a few years ago - two days and one night of snow and wind, followed by it sitting around for a few more days- the storm crashing into the storm; plus the Atlantic front (so a three-way storm "crash") is a bit worrying.
But the stoves are both going well, we've got plenty of fuel, food, and water; I'll be more relaxed once Nighwolf gets back here, but otherwise things are not bad yet; though I gather things are already pretty bad in the UK - London is covered in snow and that is rare.
Sandune
Veteran Member
Of course the news blames this on Global Warming, nevermind the affects of the Jet Stream moving vast amount of air like it normally does this time of year.
https://www.newsmax.com/thewire/north-pole-temperature-surges/2018/02/27/id/845681/
North Pole Temperature Surges in Middle of Winter
North Pole temperatures have surged to the melting point in what could be a historical thaw resulting from an intense storm.
Though this is meant to be the coldest time of year for the region, the U.S. Global Forecast System model reported temperatures climbing as high as 35 degrees Fahrenheit, The Washington Post reported.
Based on several independent analyses, temperatures at the North Pole were “very close to freezing,” said Zack Labe, a climate scientist working on his PhD at the University of California at Irvine.
There's no direct measure of temperature at the North Pole, but that estimate would put the temperature at about 50 degrees above normal.
This is one of the hottest winters on record for the Arctic, according to the Daily Mail, and these unusual conditions are disrupting the Arctic polar jet stream, which carries winds across the planet from east to west and into the upper atmosphere.
However, warmer air in the region has put it off course and scientists now say the weather patterns could be directly linked man-made global warming.
According to the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological site at the northern extreme of Greenland, there has been 61 hours of temperatures above freezing recorded this year alone, The Telegraph reported.
“It’s never been this extreme,” said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), according to Reuters.
A study published last year found that Arctic winter warming events are becoming more frequent and lasting longer than they did three decades ago.
“These [winter warming] events are not unusual, but they are happening more frequently and with longer durations,” said Robert Graham, lead author of the study, adding that reduced ice cover and shifting weather patterns due to climate change may be causing the phenomenon.
https://www.newsmax.com/thewire/north-pole-temperature-surges/2018/02/27/id/845681/
North Pole Temperature Surges in Middle of Winter
North Pole temperatures have surged to the melting point in what could be a historical thaw resulting from an intense storm.
Though this is meant to be the coldest time of year for the region, the U.S. Global Forecast System model reported temperatures climbing as high as 35 degrees Fahrenheit, The Washington Post reported.
Based on several independent analyses, temperatures at the North Pole were “very close to freezing,” said Zack Labe, a climate scientist working on his PhD at the University of California at Irvine.
There's no direct measure of temperature at the North Pole, but that estimate would put the temperature at about 50 degrees above normal.
This is one of the hottest winters on record for the Arctic, according to the Daily Mail, and these unusual conditions are disrupting the Arctic polar jet stream, which carries winds across the planet from east to west and into the upper atmosphere.
However, warmer air in the region has put it off course and scientists now say the weather patterns could be directly linked man-made global warming.
According to the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological site at the northern extreme of Greenland, there has been 61 hours of temperatures above freezing recorded this year alone, The Telegraph reported.
“It’s never been this extreme,” said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), according to Reuters.
A study published last year found that Arctic winter warming events are becoming more frequent and lasting longer than they did three decades ago.
“These [winter warming] events are not unusual, but they are happening more frequently and with longer durations,” said Robert Graham, lead author of the study, adding that reduced ice cover and shifting weather patterns due to climate change may be causing the phenomenon.
Thanks for the update, Melodi. I hope Nightwolf makes it home safely and you two can tuck in safe and warm and sound for a few days. Sounds like Great Britain is in for a rough week. I still have friends there.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Looks like he will be stuck in Dublin, not totally certain yet but likely - heavy snow (for Ireland) hit Dublin early overnight and buses are canceled; there are some private operators still on the roads and some trains are still running but most everything has shut down.
We are OK here, just enough snow so far to look pretty but not do much to disrupt things, but a lot more is supposed to be on the way - my real concern is that things may sock in for four or five days - oh well, got knitting?
We are OK here, just enough snow so far to look pretty but not do much to disrupt things, but a lot more is supposed to be on the way - my real concern is that things may sock in for four or five days - oh well, got knitting?
FarmerJohn
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Don't overlook that the jet stream is highly influenced by the warming.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Husband stuck in Dublin for the duration, nearly all public transit shut down going out of Dublin; entire country to shut down tomorrow at 4pm until Friday around news as the storm from the South colliding with the existing cold front may produce real blizzard conditions which I've only seen once or twice before here (very rare).
Postal services are being suspended, only emergency workers are supposed to go to work tomorrow etc - husband was laughing because the snow is nothing compared to Sweden or Colorado but I reminded him Sweden has heated highways and Finland can keep airports open because they are set up for it.
Personally (and I told him this) I think they are trying to clear people off the roads and the streets today; because there would be no ability to rescue people if there were those US types of snow made traffic jams with hundreds or thousands of cars trapped on the road. They would try, but even with the military and civil defense many people would freeze to death or die in their car with the heater running.
So, get everything shut down today to be ready for tomorrow is my guess; meanwhile we're fine here at the house, prepping has its advantages for any sort of disruption, not just TSHTF...
Postal services are being suspended, only emergency workers are supposed to go to work tomorrow etc - husband was laughing because the snow is nothing compared to Sweden or Colorado but I reminded him Sweden has heated highways and Finland can keep airports open because they are set up for it.
Personally (and I told him this) I think they are trying to clear people off the roads and the streets today; because there would be no ability to rescue people if there were those US types of snow made traffic jams with hundreds or thousands of cars trapped on the road. They would try, but even with the military and civil defense many people would freeze to death or die in their car with the heater running.
So, get everything shut down today to be ready for tomorrow is my guess; meanwhile we're fine here at the house, prepping has its advantages for any sort of disruption, not just TSHTF...
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
European wars, famine, and plagues driven by changing climates
Social disturbances in preindustrial Europe have been ascribed to a variety of …
ALLIE WILKINSON - 10/12/2011, 9:28 AM
http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/hangtree-4e946bf-intro.jpg
The Thirty Years War was especially deadly. Photograph by cuny.edu
Economic chaos, famine, disease, and war may all be attributed to climate change, according to a recent study. Through advances in paleoclimatology, researchers used temperature data and climate-driven economic variables to simulate the climate that prevailed during golden and dark ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere from 1500-1800 AD. In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis. They noted that social disturbance, societal collapse and population collapse often coincided with significant climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times, suggesting that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in many preindustrial societies.
The General Crisis of the 17th Century in Europe was marked by widespread economic distress, social unrest, and population decline. A significant cause of mankind’s woes during these times was the climate-induced shrinkage of agricultural production. Bioproductivity, agricultural production, and food supply per capita all showed immediate responses to changes in temperature. In the five to 30 years following these changes, there were also responses in terms of social disturbance, war, migration, nutritional status, epidemics, and famine.
Cooling during the Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD) reduced crop yields by shortening the growing season and shrinking the cultivated land area. Although agricultural production decreased or became stagnant in a cold climate, population size still grew, leading to an increase in grain price and an increased demand on food supplies. Inflating grain prices led to hardships for many, and triggered social problems and conflicts such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms.
Many of these disturbances led to armed conflicts, and the number of wars increased 41 percent during the Cold Phase. During the latter portion of the Cold Phase, the number of wars decreased, but the wars lasted longer and were far more lethal—most notable was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), where fatalities were more than 12 times of the conflicts between 1500-1619.
Famine became more frequent too. Nutrition deteriorated, and the average height of Europeans shrunk 2cm by the late 16th century. As temperatures began to rise again after 1650, so did the average height.
The economic chaos, famine, and war led people to emigrate, and Europe saw peak migration overlapping the time of peak social disturbance. This widespread migration, in conjunction with declining health caused by poor nutrition, facilitated the spread of epidemics, and the number of plagues peaked during 1550-1670, reaching the highest level during the study period. As a result of war fatalities and famine, the annual population growth rate dropped dramatically, eventually leading to population collapse.
In the 18th century, the mild climate improved matters considerably, leading to the speedy recovery of both Europe’s economy and population.
The alternation between periods of harmony and crisis, golden ages and dark ages, closely followed variations in the food supply per capita. Consequently, grain price could be used as an indicator of crisis in preindustrial Europe. Although grain price is dictated by agricultural production and population size, analysis by the researchers shows that temperature change was the real cause behind the grain price, since agricultural production was climate-dependent at the time.
The history of golden and dark ages in Europe is often attributed to sociopolitical factors, which fails to explain the co-occurrence of long-term crises in different countries, at different stages of development, and across different climate zones.
Instead, the authors make a compelling case that climate change is the culprit, thanks to a climate-driven economic downturn due to a decreasing food supply. Where there is a shrinking food supply, chaos and misery follow.
Social disturbances in preindustrial Europe have been ascribed to a variety of …
ALLIE WILKINSON - 10/12/2011, 9:28 AM
http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/hangtree-4e946bf-intro.jpg
The Thirty Years War was especially deadly. Photograph by cuny.edu
Economic chaos, famine, disease, and war may all be attributed to climate change, according to a recent study. Through advances in paleoclimatology, researchers used temperature data and climate-driven economic variables to simulate the climate that prevailed during golden and dark ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere from 1500-1800 AD. In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis. They noted that social disturbance, societal collapse and population collapse often coincided with significant climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times, suggesting that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in many preindustrial societies.
The General Crisis of the 17th Century in Europe was marked by widespread economic distress, social unrest, and population decline. A significant cause of mankind’s woes during these times was the climate-induced shrinkage of agricultural production. Bioproductivity, agricultural production, and food supply per capita all showed immediate responses to changes in temperature. In the five to 30 years following these changes, there were also responses in terms of social disturbance, war, migration, nutritional status, epidemics, and famine.
Cooling during the Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD) reduced crop yields by shortening the growing season and shrinking the cultivated land area. Although agricultural production decreased or became stagnant in a cold climate, population size still grew, leading to an increase in grain price and an increased demand on food supplies. Inflating grain prices led to hardships for many, and triggered social problems and conflicts such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms.
Many of these disturbances led to armed conflicts, and the number of wars increased 41 percent during the Cold Phase. During the latter portion of the Cold Phase, the number of wars decreased, but the wars lasted longer and were far more lethal—most notable was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), where fatalities were more than 12 times of the conflicts between 1500-1619.
Famine became more frequent too. Nutrition deteriorated, and the average height of Europeans shrunk 2cm by the late 16th century. As temperatures began to rise again after 1650, so did the average height.
The economic chaos, famine, and war led people to emigrate, and Europe saw peak migration overlapping the time of peak social disturbance. This widespread migration, in conjunction with declining health caused by poor nutrition, facilitated the spread of epidemics, and the number of plagues peaked during 1550-1670, reaching the highest level during the study period. As a result of war fatalities and famine, the annual population growth rate dropped dramatically, eventually leading to population collapse.
In the 18th century, the mild climate improved matters considerably, leading to the speedy recovery of both Europe’s economy and population.
The alternation between periods of harmony and crisis, golden ages and dark ages, closely followed variations in the food supply per capita. Consequently, grain price could be used as an indicator of crisis in preindustrial Europe. Although grain price is dictated by agricultural production and population size, analysis by the researchers shows that temperature change was the real cause behind the grain price, since agricultural production was climate-dependent at the time.
The history of golden and dark ages in Europe is often attributed to sociopolitical factors, which fails to explain the co-occurrence of long-term crises in different countries, at different stages of development, and across different climate zones.
Instead, the authors make a compelling case that climate change is the culprit, thanks to a climate-driven economic downturn due to a decreasing food supply. Where there is a shrinking food supply, chaos and misery follow.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Thank You for sticking with_us_here. On TB2k.
Did you have a previous handle here?
All The Best,
Tom
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von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes, I used the name "Flavius Aetius" before but am using my Mother's real family name now.
I am convinced that the Solar Minimum is so serious that I might post articles occasionally. What's is happening now in the Northeast is but a foretaste of what's ahead-for decades.
von Koehler
The last few month's more people are writing articles or their articles are being allowed to be published and not being stifled or their stuff deleated. Many voicing what they now say this Grand Solar Minimum is serious and its not going away anytine soon.
Making a long range prediction on the matter is going out on a limb, but going by what has happened in the past their saying this may slowly get worse and worse and that it may go on for the next 50 years.
Making a long range prediction on the matter is going out on a limb, but going by what has happened in the past their saying this may slowly get worse and worse and that it may go on for the next 50 years.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Thank You for the quick reply.
Thinking about doing the same.
Appreciate Your efforts. We can joke all we want, won't make the topic any less serious. Just easier to absorb - for some folks.
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