Solar The Grand Solar Minimum (ORIGINAL)

[von Koehler]

https://phys.org/news/2016-08-solar-impact-earth-cloud.html

Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover

August 25, 2016 by Morten Garly Andersen, Technical University of Denmark

Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover

Credit: Technical University of Denmark

A team of scientists from the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space) and the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked large solar eruptions to changes in Earth's cloud cover in a study based on over 25 years of satellite observations.

The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays.

However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.

Since clouds are known to affect global temperatures on longer timescales, the present investigation represents an important step in the understanding of clouds and climate variability.

"Earth is under constant bombardment by particles from space called galactic cosmic rays. Violent eruptions at the Sun's surface can blow these cosmic rays away from Earth for about a week. Our study has shown that when the cosmic rays are reduced in this way there is a corresponding reduction in Earth's cloud cover. Since clouds are an important factor in controlling the temperature on Earth our results may have implications for climate change", explains lead author on the study Jacob Svensmark of DTU.

Very energetic particles

These particles generate electrically charged molecules—ions—in Earth's atmosphere. Ions have been shown in the laboratory to enhance the formation of aerosols, which can serve as seeds for the formation of the cloud drops that make up a cloud. Whether this actually happens in the atmosphere, or only in the laboratory is a topic that has been investigated and debated for years.

When the large solar eruptions blow away the galactic cosmic rays before they reach Earth they cause a reduction in atmospheric ions of up to about 20 to -30 percent over the course of a week. So if ions affect cloud formation it should be possible to observe a decrease in cloud cover during events when the Sun blows away cosmic rays, and this is precisely what is done in this study.

Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth's cloud cover

Credit: Technical University of Denmark

The so-called 'Forbush decreases' of the cosmic rays have previously been linked to week-long changes in Earth's cloud cover but the effect has been debated at length in the scientific literature. The new study concludes that "there is a real impact of Forbush decreases on cloud microphysics" and that the results support the suggestion that "ions play a significant role in the life-cycle of clouds".

Arriving at that conclusion was, however, a hard endeavor; Very few strong Forbush decreases occur and their effect on cloud formation is expected to be close to the limit of detection using global atmospheric observations measured by satellites and land based stations. Therefore it was of the greatest importance to select the strongest events for study since they had to have the most easily detected effect. Determining this strength required combining data from about 130 stations in combination with atmospheric modeling.

This new method resulted in a list of 26 events in the period of 1987-2007 ranked according to ionization. This ranked list was important for the detection of a signal, and may also shed some light on why previous studies have arrived at varied conclusions, since they have relied on events that were not necessarily ranked high on the list.

Possible long term effect

The effect from Forbush decreases on clouds is too brief to have any impact on long-term temperature changes.

However since clouds are affected by short term changes in galactic cosmic radiation, they may well also be affected by the slower change in Solar activity that happens on scales from tens to hundreds of years, and thus play a role in the radiation budget that determines the global temperature.

The Suns contribution to past and future climate change may thus be larger than merely the direct changes in radiation, concludes the scientists behind the new study.

More information: J. Svensmark et al, The response of clouds and aerosols to cosmic ray decreases, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics (2016). DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022689

Provided by: Technical University of Denmark

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2016-08-solar-impact-earth-cloud.html#jCp

 

[von Koehler]

 

[von Koehler]

 

[Nowski]

Another grand solar minimum, on the order of the Maunder Minimum,
is about the only thing that can salvage the Western European,
and FUSA societies.

Bitterly cold weather can have a cleansing effect,
and provide a needed reset, to everything on planet Earth.

Excellent thread, with lots of topics to research.

Please be safe everyone, and please arm up.

Regards to all deplorables.

Nowski

 

[Faroe]

Another grand solar minimum, on the order of the Maunder Minimum,
is about the only thing that can salvage the Western European,
and FUSA societies.

Bitterly cold weather can have a cleansing effect,
and provide a needed reset, to everything on planet Earth.

Excellent thread, with lots of topics to research.

Please be safe everyone, and please arm up.

Regards to all deplorables.

Nowski

Agree.
In fact, the more I think about the coming cold, the more I like it.
It will be particularly effective if the onset is harsh, and abrupt, but it may work well either way.
Predictions I've found are that we have 50 years ahead of us.

 

[von Koehler]

Negroes, having their DNA based on sub-Saharan conditions, are not well adapted for cold conditions.

von Koehler

 

[summerthyme]

Negroes, having their DNA based on sub-Saharan conditions, are not well adapted for cold conditions.

von Koehler

I wish that were true... however, the success of the imported Somalis in adapting to life in Maine and Minnesota (not to mention the large populations of native blacks in Buffalo, Detroit and Chicago) sort of puts lie to the theory.

I think the greater factor in regards to them adapting and surviving a very cold period is their ingrained aversion to work.

Summerthyme

 

[von Koehler]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GUcn07enz4

19:27 minutes

The Milankovitch Cycles and their effect on Climate Change.

As I stated when starting this thread, I am not an astronomer. The Milankovitch Cycles theory seems informative about what causes climate changes but it is
complicated for a layman, such as myself.

von Koehler

 

[Faroe]

I wish that were true... however, the success of the imported Somalis in adapting to life in Maine and Minnesota (not to mention the large populations of native blacks in Buffalo, Detroit and Chicago) sort of puts lie to the theory.

I think the greater factor in regards to them adapting and surviving a very cold period is their ingrained aversion to work.

Summerthyme

The strain on the country will end welfare. They won't be around long w/o it.

 

[von Koehler]

http://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/TSI_Composite.png

 

[von Koehler]

 

[von Koehler]

 

[von Koehler]

https://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

Solar Constant

Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Time Series from 1978 to present

The description of the procedures used to construct the composite from the original data shown in Figure 1 (upper panel) can be found in Fröhlich and Lean [1998]; Fröhlich [2000]. Radiometrically it is based on the ACRIM-I and II records; before the start of the ACRIM-I measurements in 1980, during the spin mode of SMM, and during the gap between ACRIM-I and II, corrected HF data are inserted by shifting the level to fit the corresponding ACRIM data over an overlapping period of 250 days on each side into the ACRIM sets. In early 1996 the VIRGO data take over, again shifted to agree with ACRIMII. Finally the composite record is adjusted via ACRIM-II to SARR (Space Absolute Radiometer Reference) which was introduced by Crommelynck et al. [1995] and allows the comparison of different space experiment (done in spring 1993). The data fromERBE and ACRIM-III, as well as an empirical model are used for comparisons and for internal consistency checks. It is important to note that the model is an independent source of information for comparisons and as long as it is not used over solar cycle time scales it provides a reliable time series for time scales of less than a year. So it will be used in all comparisons as it is available as a daily record which is important for the interpolation between ERBE data with their 14-day sampling.

The most important issues for the construction of the composite are:

Correction for the early measurements of HF on NIMBUS 7 to account for its early increase, degradation and non-exposure dependent increase (as described in Fröhlich and Lean [1998] and updated by Fröhlich [2006]).
Assessment of the early increase and degradation of ACRIM-I, also updated by Fröhlich [2006].
Tracking of ACRIM II to ACRIM I by comparison with only HF, corrected as described in the first bullet (earlier versions used also ERBS and the model, see Fröhlich [2000] and Fröhlich [2003]).
Detailed assessment of the influence of the many operational interruptions in the ACRIM-II record (described in Fröhlich [2004]).
The related problems are discussed in detail in corresponding references (mainly in the recent paper for the ISSI WS2005) and summarized in the following.

The analysis of the PMO6V radiometer of the VIRGO experiment on SOHO allowed not only to develop a model for the changes, but also to differentiate between effects of quite different origin. From our experience with the radiometer series for SOVIM, an experiment flown within SOLAR on the International Space Station (until October 2012), and by re-examination of the retrieved radiometers from EURECA we learned that the early increase is due to a change in absorption of the primary aperture and its influence on the sensitivity by extra IR radiation and straylight from the baffle. So, it became clear, that this influence may be important for all radiometers used in space missions, which have their primary aperture directly in front of the cavity. And, indeed it could be detected in ACRIM-I with similar amplitudes as observed for the PMO6V radiometers of VIRGO. Moreover, tests at TRF of LASP confirmed the large influence for spares of PMO6V and ACRIM-3, which also explains the difference in bsolute scale between these classical radiometers and TIM/SORCE of several thenth of a percent. So the early increase is a change of this effect due a change of the reflectivity of the primary aperture. In a next step degradation ACRIM-I has to be modelled again. This is quite straight forward as the model developed for the PMO6V radiometers taking the dose into account works very well. It is only complicated by the fact that during the spin-mode operation of SMM (after failure of the pointing system of SMM in late 1980 until repair in 1984) the exposure was drastically reduced, which, however, can be taken into account accordingly.

For the HF radiometer the situation is more complicated as there is no back-up instrument which can be used for in-flight exposure dependent corrections. So we need a reference for the early observations, which is build from the proxy model calibrated with corrected ACRIM-I (over the period 1980-1985) and used to extrapolate ACRIM-I back to November 1978, the start of NIMBUS-7. Moreover, ERBS data are used as reference after ACRIM-I has been terminated. Another complication is the fact that the time series has many slips which are mainly due to changes in the orientation of the spacecraft and due to switch-off, which have not been taken into account in the original evaluation. In contrast to the earlier analysis we determine the sensitivity changes of HF over its full period and the trend needs no longer to be determined during the ACRIM gap by comparison with ERBS and the proxy model as in Fröhlich [2000]. The final result of the corrected HF data set is not fundamentally different from what was determined earlier with a much simpler and more subjective method, but the corrections are now internally consistent and done over the full HF measurement period at once. It is interesting to note that there is also an increase of sensitivity which is not exposure dependent. similar to the effect on DIARAD/VIRGO (see also the discussion of the VIRGO TSI data: VIRGO_TSI-vers64.pdf). The magnitude of the correction demonstrates how important they are (up to 1 Wm-2).

Figure 1. Comparison of the PMOD composite with original data sets. Smooth full lines indicate that the radiometer is the basis for the composite and if coincident with zero that no corrections other than an overall shift has been applied. If an instrument is not used the color of the line is dimmed .The HF record needed the most important corrections mainly for the long-term changes. The ACRIM I record in 1980 is also changed to take the early increase and a revised version of the degradation algorithms into account. Results from ERBE, DIARAD/VIRGO (evaluated with the IRMB algorithm) and TIM/SORCE. are plotted as dotted lines.

PDF Figure

With these corrections we are now ready to refer ACRIM-II to ACRIM-I. This is done by a weighted average of the ratios of ACRIM-I to the corrected HF and ERBS data and the corresponding average ratios of ACRIM-II. With the new treatment of the HF correction, this radiometer is now independent of ERBS, a further improvement over the earlier analysis. Having done this scaling the rest is straight-forward and consists of adjusting the HF and the ACRIMs to VIRGO. The comparison to the original data is shown in Figure 1 where the major corrections are obvious: early HF, ACRIM-I during 1980, HF during the ACRIM gap.

Figure 2. Comparison of the PMOD composite with the two other composites. The PMOD composite is in this plot on the original scale of VIRGO.

PDF Figure

The final PMOD-composite is shown Figure 2 together with the ACRIM and IRMB composites. The result of a more detailed comparison of the three composites with ERBE is presented in Figure 3. After the detection of the early increase in the ACRIM-I data set and due to the fact that the ERBS radiometers are copies of ACRIM-II (manufactured by TRW for NASA Langley) and assuming that both have the same type and geometry of apertures they should behave very similarly for the early increase. As the total exposure time is less than 3 days only a correction for the earliest increase has to be applied.

Figure 3. Comparison of the PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB composites with ERBE. The result illustrates the jump of the ACRIM composite over the ACRIM gap which corresponds to the corrections to the HF radiometer applied for the construction of the PMOD composite. The observed upward trend as seen in Figure 2 has been corrected with the early increase coefficients of ACRIM I and the dose seen by ERBE as descibed in Fröhlich [2006]. This graph illustrates also quite impressively how different the result of DIARAD/VIRGO is when it is evaluated with the IRMB algorithm. The fit with an exponential function which takes also a change over the soho-vacation gap into account, confirms independently the non- exposure dependent changes, the VIRGO team has determined and applied. Fortunately, DIARAD and possibly HF are the only radiometers for which such an effect has been identified. Without comparison with some other independent instruments there is no way to assess such changes. This was also the reason for VIRGO to have two different types of radiometer. PDF Figure

An estimate of the uncertainty of the long-term behaviour of the composite TSI can be deduced from the uncertainty of the slope relative to ERBE. For the PMOD composite the slope over the whole period amounts s to 1.1 +/- 2.1 ppm/a. Although this standard deviation is partly determined by the sampling of ERBE we may estimate the uncertainty of a possible trend to be <3 ppm/a for periods longer than 10 to 15 years. This implies a possible change of 50 to 80 ppm over the 23 years of the observations. If we add the uncertainties related to the tracing of ACRIM-II to I and of the HF correction (60 ppm) we get a total uncertainty of 92 ppm. The observed change of the PMOD composite as difference between two successive minima amounts to -10 ppm which is not significantly different from zero at the 3-sigma level.

The comparison of the three composites with ERBE shows that the PMOD composite is the most consistent. So, if one believes the ERBE record, and with the Sperman's rank correlation coefficient s of the PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB composites of 0.751, 0.678 and 0.695, respectively, it becomes clear which one should be chosen as a reliable estimate of the total solar irradiance for the last three solar cycles. <\p>

Figure 4. The PMOD composite TSI as daily values plotted in different colors for the different originating experiments. On the righthand side the new absolute scale of VIRGO is indicated and the values of the average, and the minima values are also given in both scales. PDF Figure

The great success of the proxy model (as e.g. described in Fröhlich and Lean, 2004) in explaining both the short and long-term behaviour of the Sun during the last three cycles, it is now possible to expand the composite back to the minimum in 1976 (Fig.5).

Figure 5. The extended PMOD composite TSI as daily values plotted in different colors for the different originating experiments. The differences between the minima values is also indicated, together with amplitudes of the three cycles. PDF Figure [This last chart is the key one in that it shows that the Sun's energy output is declining-von Koehler. Solar irradiance has already dropped down to the 1360 range.]

Since version 4.2 the composite is on the scale of the VIRGO TSI and no longer referred to SARR. The new characterization of the VIRGO radiometer (see VIRGO_Char2Space) provides a new absolute scale which is about 5.8 Wm-2 or 0.42% lower than the original scale. Both scales are presented in Fig.4 and 5 and in the data files: for the composite here, and for the extended one here. During the last minimum VIRGO TSI amounts to 1359.66 ± 2.47 Wm-2 which is within less than half the uncertainty equal to the value of TIM of 1360.52 Wm-2.
References
Crommelynck, D., A. Fichot, R. B. Lee III, and J. Romero, First realisation of the space absolute radiometric reference (SARR) during the ATLAS 2 flight period, Adv. Space Res., 16, 17-23, 1995.

Dewitte, S, D. Crommelynck, S. Mekaoui, A. Joukoff, Merasurement and Uncertainty of the long-term Total Solar Irradiance Trend, Sol.Phys., 224, pp 209-216, 2004

Fröhlich, C., and J. Lean, The Sun’s total irradiance: Cycles and trends in the past two decades and associated climate change uncertainties, Geophys. Res. Let., 25, 4377-4380, 1998.

Fröhlich, C., Observations of irradiance variability, Space Science Reviews, 94, 15-24, 2000.

Fröhlich, C., Long-term behaviour of space radiometers, Metrologia, 40, 60-65, 2003.

Fröhlich, C., Solar Irradiance Variability, in Solar Variability and its Effect on climate, Chapter 2: Solar Energy Flux Variations, American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph Series No. 141, 97-110, 2004.

Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean: 2004, `Solar Radiative Output and its Variability: Evidence and Mechanisms'. Astron. and Astrophys. Rev., 12, pp. 273--320, 2004, doi: 10.1007/s00159-004-0024-1

Fröhlich, C., Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978: Revision of the {PMOD} Composite During Solar Cycle 21, Space Sci. Rev., 125, 53�65, 2006. doi: 10.1007/s11214-006-9046-5.

Fröhlich, C., Total solar irradiance observations. Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 453�473, 2012. doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9168-5.

Willson, R. C., Total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21 and 22, Science, 277, 1963-1965, 1997.

Willson, R. C., and A.V. Mordinov, Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21 and 22, Geophys. Res. Let., 30, 1199-1202, 2003.

Reponsible for this page is Claus Fröhlich ; last update of text (without references): October 2014

 

[Oreally]

I wish that were true... however, the success of the imported Somalis in adapting to life in Maine and Minnesota (not to mention the large populations of native blacks in Buffalo, Detroit and Chicago) sort of puts lie to the theory.

I think the greater factor in regards to them adapting and surviving a very cold period is their ingrained aversion to work.

Summerthyme

the success of these people is directly correlated with the level of benefits that they get from our society. without them, they would be crowding the doorways to get back to their shitholes.

 

[Faroe]

I came across a couple of John L Casey interviews last night. He is a former NASA scientist. One thing that struck me is that the combination of relatively stable warm ocean temps with cold air temps makes for very wet snowy winters - typical ice age weather. It is the accumulation of vast amounts of snow year after year that doesn't melt in the summer, that causes glaciers to grow. We have more precipitation now than we did a few decades ago.

I find the consequences alarming for our older dams. The last several years seem to have been marked as many floods and strained dams as by low reservoirs. Those planning to relocate, might want to check on what they would be down-stream from. My whole life, we have been told that we are running out of fresh water, yet, I'm wondering if the American South West is going to get green again.

 

[von Koehler]

A number of sources seem to be agreeing that for the current solar cycle, the year 2024 will be the worst.

Currently the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum is projected to be as severe as the past Maunder Minimum, but might not last as long.

All predictions are subject to change as new solar data emerges.

von Koehler

 

[von Koehler]

I came across a couple of John L Casey interviews last night. He is a former NASA scientist. One thing that struck me is that the combination of relatively stable warm ocean temps with cold air temps makes for very wet snowy winters - typical ice age weather. It is the accumulation of vast amounts of snow year after year that doesn't melt in the summer, that causes glaciers to grow. We have more precipitation now than we did a few decades ago.

I find the consequences alarming for our older dams. The last several years seem to have been marked as many floods and strained dams as by low reservoirs. Those planning to relocate, might want to check on what they would be down-stream from. My whole life, we have been told that we are running out of fresh water, yet, I'm wondering if the American South West is going to get green again.

Casey was among the first, especially here in the USA, to warn about the possibility of a global cooling. This was when the craziness of Gore's Global Warming was at its peak.

von Koehler

 

[packyderms_wife]

Negroes, having their DNA based on sub-Saharan conditions, are not well adapted for cold conditions.

von Koehler

This has to be the most ignorant comment I've seen here on TBK to date! Educate yourself man, there are mountains, etc., in subsaharan africa!

 

[summerthyme]

I'd like to start a separate thread as Melodi suggests.... I had a long post on hoof care, pasture management, etc almost finished when I accidentally hit the wrong spot on this touchy screen and list it. Decided not to read it and post it because it felt like too much thread drift... I'd rather keep this thread about the science and studies.

If no one objects, I'll start a new thread in the Homesteading forum, and then (again, unless peopke object... I won't do it until I get permission I'll move the various prep posts from this thread over there.

Summerthyme

 

[von Koehler]

So how many Negroes have you seen doing hard physical work outside in the cold and snow? I am sure there are exceptions to everything but it's been my observation about the majority of Negroes; they do not like the cold. And there is very little snow present in sub-Saharan Africa or at least where the majority of Negroes actually live.

And realize that many [but not all] American Negroes have some White blood in their DNA so a variation in tolerance to cold should be expected. Most live in the American South where it is warmer or in urban areas that are heated.

Most of the Africans enslaved came from the warmer regions where there is very little snowfall.

von Koehler

 

[von Koehler]

I'd like to start a separate thread as Melodi suggests.... I had a long post on hoof care, pasture management, etc almost finished when I accidentally hit the wrong spot on this touchy screen and list it. Decided not to read it and post it because it felt like too much thread drift... I'd rather keep this thread about the science and studies.

If no one objects, I'll start a new thread in the Homesteading forum, and then (again, unless peopke object... I won't do it until I get permission I'll move the various prep posts from this thread over there.

Summerthyme

That's fine with me; is there anyway to link the two threads back and forth? I would keep the solar data/science reports here.

von Koehler

 

[packyderms_wife]

I'd like to start a separate thread as Melodi suggests.... I had a long post on hoof care, pasture management, etc almost finished when I accidentally hit the wrong spot on this touchy screen and list it. Decided not to read it and post it because it felt like too much thread drift... I'd rather keep this thread about the science and studies.

If no one objects, I'll start a new thread in the Homesteading forum, and then (again, unless peopke object... I won't do it until I get permission I'll move the various prep posts from this thread over there.

Summerthyme

I think that's a great idea, may be title it Surviving a Solar Minimum

 

[summerthyme]

I think that's a great idea, may be title it Surviving a Solar Minimum

I'm going to ask Dennis if he objects to me moving a bunch of posts from here. In the meantime, let's start responding to a thread I'm going to start in Homesteading in a minute, in terms of practical posts. We'll leave this one for the scientific stuff.

Summerthyme

 

[summerthyme]

OK... I moved as many of the posts as I thought were specifically about preparing for a solar minimum/little ice age to this thread:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...Survive-and-Thrive-in-a-Solar-Minimum-climate

Let's keep the science based posts here, and the prep posts on the new thread. If you wish to refer to a post on the "other" thread (either way, if it seems applicable) just include a link to the post you're referring to. I don't really think there will be much cross linking, as the subject matter is really quite different, and it's easy enough to say "if, as discussed in the science thread, XXX happens, this is how I'd plan on handling it".

Any problems or suggestions, by all means, weigh in!

Summerthyme

 

[von Koehler]

https://www.iceagenow.info/

There are just too many world-wide reports of extreme weather to post them all, so here's some from www.iceagenow.info There are live links there to click on for each story.

Lowest temperature ever recorded in Bangladesh history
January 27, 2018 by Robert
“Record cold in Tokyo, record cold in Bangladesh, but the MSM doesn’t report this,” says reader Argiris Diama

Heavy snow continues pounding central and eastern China
January 27, 2018 by Robert
26 Jan 2018 – “Snow has disrupted railway transportation in some areas of Anhui since Jan. 24.

China rushes to replenish gas supplies ahead of icy blast
January 26, 2018 by Robert
22 Jan 2018 – China is pulling in ships from all over the world to avoid a natural gas supply squeeze ahead of yet another “cold snap.”

Fish frozen to death in South Korea
January 26, 2018 by Robert
25 Jan 2018 – See photo of a fisherman scooping dead striped beakperches out of a fish farm in the sea off the town of Goheung on South Korea’s southwestern coast.

South Korea – Cold wave spikes power demand to unprecedented level
January 26, 2018 by Robert
Public concerns growing over a possible power outage.

Far colder than normal in Siberia
January 26, 2018 by Robert
For the past week, the average temperature has run below the norm at 8-16 degrees in southern Siberia.

LIVE: Mayon Volcano still going strong
January 25, 2018 by Robert
Live feed: Mayon Volcano in the Philippines still spewing lava, ash

Freezing in Tokyo – Coldest in 48 years
January 25, 2018 by Robert
Rare and heavy snow sparks chaos in Japanese capital.

Scientists Get Buried In Snow At Davos While Lecturing On Global Warming
January 23, 2018 by Robert
Elites gathering to discuss global warming forced to wait for road crews to dig their limousines out of drifts – Six feet of snow in six days

Blizzard paralyzes parts of South Dakota – Snowfall record shattered in Yankton
January 23, 2018 by Robert
Almost doubles previous snowfall record.

 

[von Koehler]

Just so it's understandable, here's where we are at right now. Solar Cycle 24 is still the current one [as the Sun's polarity hasn't flipped yet], but is it getting very long. Sunspots are becoming fewer and fewer; in 2018 so far there has been 24 days without them or 52% of the time. Picture a classic bell-shaped curve; the right hand side is an extended flat line. Solar cycle 25 will probably have far fewer Sunspots, so the weather will be cooler, with more rain in some areas-and droughts in other places. 2024 is predicted to be the worst year. Our present cycle, number 24, is the latest occurring during the Solar MAXIMUM and we are just going into a transition period to the really cold period.

If a Little Ice Age should re-emerge, the time between each consecutive solar cycle should lengthen with few or no Sunspots. During the Maunder minimum this lasted for many decades before the Solar cycles resumed.

Mankind can neither prevent or modify these climate changes; what you can do as an individual is to adapt to minimize the weather's effects.

Remember one third of Europa died off in the last LIA.

von Koehler

 

[von Koehler]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuik89vufx0

5:06 minutes

Wow! Paris Flooded - Saudi Snow - Mayon Volcano Lahar Mudslide Alert GSM

 

[von Koehler]

After some thought, I have decided to cease posting articles on the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum here at TB2000.

It's simply too time consuming, and it seems that I invariably grate someone the wrong way. The resulting argumentation is a waste of time.

I will continue posting at my forum about this topic. Anyone still interested in this topic is welcome to read articles as a "guest" but if you want to make a post you will have become a member.

http://www.webwidediscussions.com/

Keep warm!

von Koehler

 

[Melodi]

I love the science articles and the other thread that got going on prepping; I think a lot of people are reading these threads; I hope you change you mind as it is important.

I just tried to register at the other forum but it says registration is disabled, is there a link to where we can register?

Thanks

 

[von Koehler]

Just send me an email-I think I fixed the problem.

and no more posts on this topic here.

von Koehler

 

[biere]

Well, I hit this site and another one up for most of my news. So sorry to hear some of the news is going elsewhere, will take a looksey over there but it is difficult enough with 2 sites to check for news.

Will take a look at the homesteading link as well, I am wondering if east tn will become like X up north so people can get an idea of what to prepare for.

Just this winter has been a major issue with frozen pipes and stuff for people, both in homes and city water popped at one point as well. Can't really imagine the issues people will have if it gets a lot worse.

Sorry for troublemakers running you off, I appreciate your posts even if I have to admit I don't read every bit of it. I have learned from them and had to treat it a bit like a school book, sometimes having to go study up on words or topics I don't grasp.

 

[Faroe]

I may not get to any tonight (am in the middle of a Cliff High two-plus hour video), but I listen to the global cooling videos while sewing. Will post any relevant scientific info. with video links that I come across.

 

[Garryowen]

Low temperature embrittlement (LTE) is a fact.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235217911530017X
http://www.spartaengineering.com/effects-of-low-temperature-on-performance-of-steel-equipment/
http://www.materials.unsw.edu.au/tutorials/online-tutorials/2ductile-brittle-transition
https://www.doitpoms.ac.uk/tlplib/BD6/ductile-to-brittle.php

One of the more notable examples was the Titanic. Rather than deform when it hit the iceberg, the steel broke. This was due to the hull steel being below the ductile to brittle transition temperature.

Interesting, but how do we know whether our engines are in danger if we run them in cold weather? Is there a cutoff temp where we shouldn't try to run the car?

 

[fi103r]

Interesting, but how do we know whether our engines are in danger if we run them in cold weather? Is there a cutoff temp where we shouldn't try to run the car?

From avation standpoint IIRC below -140 degrees F you have to preheat (bloc heaters or preheat engine oil and pre lube), actually you want to do that below -100degrees F the first and major issue is get oil moved into the spaces between engine parts before you try to crank off the engine, I don't have any real world experience beyond -20C with cars,.. and block heaters pretty much kept them operational

I would look at the manufacture's manual on specific equipment. And Keep in Mind most hydraulic fluid freezes at -140 C (that would be your brake fluid if you were wondering). I defer to our Canadian friends on car operations in really cold weather. Or to our members in
any place north of Nebraska, they probably deal with this every year.

r

 

[biere]

If you read up on common practices in parts of alaska that are cold or parts of north america that are also cold you will see some things a whole lot of folks don't worry about.

Synthetic oil of a low viscosity is a big deal. You will see gas engines with block heaters plugged in to power, I am told it is common for hotels and stuff to have a plug out by the parking spots so vehicles can plug in. Now I am used to this with diesels, but the colder it gets the more common it is for diesels.

The antifreeze some people, me sorta, don't worry about so much in places like east tn is a huge deal when playing with temps in the negatives constantly and especially the further negative you go.

And don't just worry about the engine. Your transmission fluid is also that cold. Windsheild washer fluid can freeze. All the suspension rubber and the tires are cold as well. Driving things slow and easy lets things slowly get warmed up and what not.

I generally crank up my defroster on high as soon as the vehicle is running. As the engine warms up the air hitting the windsheild also warms up. Most vehicles always direct some air to the windsheild but youtube has plenty of videos of people breaking windsheilds one way or another. Some seem to be from letting the car warm up and then putting the defroster on the iced up windsheild.

My basic opinion is for any temps I am going to be out in, my vehicle can handle it. If we start seeing negative temps here in east tn the main water lines will be freezing, talking the city water and not houses here. Lot of ice. I will pay more attention as temps drop down and instead of guessing on the proper mix of antifreeze dilution I will go back to specific gravity tool that gives me a good measure of what it is at.

Heck, at that cold I bet my door handles won't want to work and the door locks will need lubed. And the battery is going to have less cranking amps being that cold so you will want a good battery.

 

[FarmerJohn]

We'll know if 2018 turns out to not be in one of the top four or five of the warmest years since modern temp. recording began. Last year was second or third warmest. A couple of non-very-warm years and we'll have an indication that the cooler sun is having an effect.

It's not disputed by anybody that a slightly cooler sun should have a measurable effect on surface temperatures. Having this cooling-sun phenomena at the same time as unprescented CO2 levels in the atmosphere. I would like to se some confirmatory studies on the non-effect of what we've heretofore considered to be greenhouse gasses. Acknowledged in the journal article in the OP is that water vapor does have a significant impact on long-wave radiation radiated into space.

When I ordered the covering for my greenhouse, I considered permeability to long-wave radiation of the covering. Holding on to that heat is the main purpose of a greenhouse.

 

[von Koehler]

Swore I wouldn't post anymore here [main source is my own forum] but this chart is latest and shows we are on schedule for another Maunder minimum event. Year 2024 still looks like it will be the coldest for the current Solar Cycle 24.

von Koehler

 

[jed turtle]

Thanks for returning with that chart. The evidence is certainly piling up in many places.

I have been contemplating excavating part of my south-facing hillside garden to create more of a sunken garden effect before building a greenhouse over it. I am not able to divorce this macro-information about a likely climate change (that zigs instead of zags) without how it affects me personally, and how do I practically respond (biggest bang for the buck) before the change becomes overwhelming. Not to mention keeping a plan B in sight should it become far worse than anticipated.

 

[summerthyme]

Thanks for returning with that chart. The evidence is certainly piling up in many places.

I have been contemplating excavating part of my south-facing hillside garden to create more of a sunken garden effect before building a greenhouse over it. I am not able to divorce this macro-information about a likely climate change (that zigs instead of zags) without how it affects me personally, and how do I practically respond (biggest bang for the buck) before the change becomes overwhelming. Not to mention keeping a plan B in sight should it become far worse than anticipated.

Yeah, we're seriously looking at having to put in a hoophouse at some point in the next couple of years... maybe not so much because of "too cold" (although that's always a possibility this far north, we've had little problem producing fruit, tomatoes, peppers, etc without any protection at least so far), but due to the "too much rain" factor. Blight, always a minor issue, has exploded in tomatoes and potatoes, and even routine, weekly spraying with copper only keeps it barely in check.

But farming has always been about adapting and adjusting, and knowing what MIGHT be coming is certainly useful, but not worth worrying or obessing over.

Summerthyme

 

[Melodi]

Thanks, was about to go check your forum as husband said this is finally hitting the mainstream, he saw it in one of the Science Journals he reads as part of being a medical student (it wasn't a medical journal but another one). I told him the mainstream was just "catching up" and the working nickname was "Eddie Minimum" and that I thought it was looking like the Dalton Minimum when our house was built (1779).

I also suggested we needed to find where the old ice house and other Little Iceland modifications on the property would have been, I suddenly am starting to appreciate our 3 foot thick stone walls which are cold by modern standards but once you get them warmed in a room with a good fire they stay that way (I am sure that was intentional) unfortunately I don't have maids coming in to light the fires at 5am the way "The Lady" of the house would have had in 1779...or 1859.