Solar Solar Weather and Space News 2024

danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
danielboon said:
X1.8 EARTH FACING proton S2 radiation storm in progress A CME will follow in 48 hours
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X1.8 Flare / Earth Directed CME Confirmed
October 9, 2024 @ 02:00 UTC (UPDATED)
An X1.8 solar flare was observed at 01:55 UTC (Oct 9) and was centered around Earth facing sunspot region 3848. Coronal dimming is clearly evident and a type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 5176 km/s was recorded. Not sure if that that a typo, but I expect a CME to be produced and will likely be heading our way. More details to follow.
Fast Moving Halo CME Confirmed: The X1.8 event is associated with fast moving, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that will almost certainly be directed towards Earth. A passage past our planet will be likely within 48 hours based on the speed in which the ejected material appears to be leaving the Sun. A geomagnetic storm watch for late Thursday and into Friday should be expected. Stay tuned!
Proton Event: A moderate (S2) radiation storm is in progress as particles blasted away from the flare site make their way past our planet.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
May be an image of eclipse and text

Space Weather by SolarHam​

A look at an impulsive X1.4 solar flare centered around AR 3842 nearing the west limb at 15:47 UTC (Oct 9). Image by GOES-16 SUVI.
 
danielboon

danielboon

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Incoming CME Detected / SWS above 700 km/s
October 10, 2024 @ 14:45 UTC
Hello again folks. It appears that the CME associated with the X1.8 solar flare is now arriving past the ACE spacecraft. The solar speed increased from 380 km/s to now above 700 km/s at the time of this update.
A passage past our planet should be expected soon. STEREO Ahead IMPACT/PLASTIC data which is a little closer to the Sun than our planet detected a big Bz/IMF swing to near -40nT. A severe (G4) geomagnetic storm warning is now in effect. Extreme (G5) conditions could be observed if the Bz/IMF component points south for a long duration. Stay tuned!
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.

Space Weather by SolarHam​

A large solar filament is currently facing Earth and stretches more than 300,000 km across the Sun's southern hemisphere. The plasma dense feature is currently anchored in place to the surface of the Sun, also known as the photosphere. Most times they will remain in place for days or even weeks at a time only to be reabsorbed by the Sun. Every now and then they can liftoff or erupt and lead to large coronal mass ejections. Something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

In other news, AR 3848 is now located behind the west limb. AR 3852/3854 located in the southwest quadrant is now considered to most likely threat for at least moderate M-Flares. In fact, AR 3854 produced an M2.1 flare at 18:33 UTC (Oct 15).

Stay tuned to SolarHam (.com) for the most up to date space weather news and information.

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packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.

Space Weather by SolarHam​

Despite the X3.3 solar flare being located close to the southeast limb, the resulting halo coronal mass ejection (CME) appears to be wide enough to include an Earth directed component. See comments section for a quick video by LASCO C3. If so, a passage past our planet will be possible within 48-72 hours. A further update will be provided later today once an official tracking model is available.

SolarHam (.com)

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packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.

Space Weather by SolarHam​

++ corrected version to fix AR 3869 typo ++

The big mess of sunspots turning into view in the southeast quadrant has been sectioned out into separate active regions. For what it is worth, the X3.3 solar flare early Thursday morning involved both AR 3869 and 3872. With the increased presence of larger sunspots, the solar flux index should climb closer to the 190-200 range.

SolarHam.com

464478024_1079764120824046_6367492933374894921_n.jpg
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Incoming CME Detected
October 26, 2024 @ 16:00 UTC (UDPATED)
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X3.3 solar flare on October 24th has reached the ACE spacecraft. A solar wind speed increase from 380 to near 500 km/s was detected. A passage past our planet is expected within the next 45 minutes. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect.

CME Impact: The CME passed Earth around 16:20 UTC (Oct 26). So far the impact appears to be minor, however fluctuations within the solar wind environment will be likely in the hours ahead.

www.solarham.com
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Large Prominence Lifts Off
October 29, 2024 @ 19:30 UTC
A solar prominence located off the southwest limb of the Sun lifted off beginning around 11:30 UTC (Oct 29, 2024). Although some of the plasma was reabsorbed by the Sun, a CME may have been produced. Because the event was not directly facing Earth, no impacts should be expected. Still a beautiful solar sight to see. Video courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory.
CME Confirmed: Upon further inspection, the prominence eruption earlier today did actually produce a fairly bright coronal mass ejection (CME). There is currently a gap in available imagery courtesy of LASCO, however this image shows a noteworthy plasma cloud leaving the Sun and headed mostly to the west.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
There are currently 11 numbered active regions visible with at least one more in formation. Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels (M-Flares) as we head into the weekend with a chance for another isolated X-Flare.
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) is forecast over the next 72 hours due mainly to coronal hole stream effects and a CME that was expected to pass just upstream from Earth.

It should be noted that for the first time in nearly a week, proton levels measured by the GOES-18 spacecraft has dipped below the radiation storm threshold. Space Weather by SolarHam
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
M-Flare / CME Likely
November 4, 2024 @ 02:00 UTC (UPDATED)
A longer duration M3.8 solar flare was just observed around AR 3883 in the southeast quadrant peaking at 01:40 UTC (Nov 4). Somewhat of a coronal mass ejection (CME) may be associated with this event based on coronal dimming seen in the latest imagery courtesy of SDO/AIA 193. A further update will be provided whenever necessary.
CME Update: Updated imagery courtesy of LASCO C2 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging following the M3.8 flare. So far it appears to be headed mostly to the east. Another update will be provided once full imagery is available.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Filament Eruption / Flare Threat
November 7, 2024 @ 09:30 UTC
Solar activity remained at high levels thanks to an impulsive X2.3 solar flare around AR 3883 at 13:40 UTC (Nov 6). The event was not responsible for a coronal mass ejection (CME).
A solar filament located in the southwest quadrant erupted beginning around 4:45 UTC (Nov 7). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was flung into space and so far appears to be off the Sun-Earth line. No major impacts expected from this particular event.
In other news, a sunspot group turning into view from off the southeast limb was assigned AR 3889 and is continuing to produce M-Class solar flares. This region along with AR 3883 near center disk will remain the most likely sunspot groups to produce an X-Flare during the next 24-48 hours.
 
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