northern watch
TB Fanatic
Yes, I expect both Germany and France to split off from the US regarding the Ukraine
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
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northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel
By Guest Contributor
UK Defence Journal
January 19, 2022
Amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian navy has sortied 5 Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship from their Baltic fleet.
AIS data from marinetraffic.com indicates the ships are en route to the English channel. Marineschepen reports that “the supervision was then taken over by Belgian and British naval vessels”.
This amphibious assault flotilla is heading towards the English Channel, and will almost certainly head for the Black Sea.
IMAGE: José María Casanova Colorado, Cartagena from Los Barcos de Eugenio – Eugenio´s Warships, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Three Ropucha-class landing ships were spotted transiting the Straits of Denmark on Monday the 17th, and were captured by Michael Christensen (@tekmic64). Additionally, a Sentinel satellite captured the transit.
On Tuesday the 18th, an additional two Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship made the transit.
According to reporting by marineschepen.nl, the hydrographic survey vessel Zr.Ms. Luymes escorted three Russian landing craft through the North Sea, assumed to be the 3 Ropucha-class ships.
The Ropucha-class landing ship can transport 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 BTRs and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LBs, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo.
The Ivan Gren-class can transport 40 BTRs or IFVs and 300 troops.
Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)
By Guest Contributor
UK Defence Journal
January 19, 2022
Amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian navy has sortied 5 Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship from their Baltic fleet.
AIS data from marinetraffic.com indicates the ships are en route to the English channel. Marineschepen reports that “the supervision was then taken over by Belgian and British naval vessels”.
This amphibious assault flotilla is heading towards the English Channel, and will almost certainly head for the Black Sea.
IMAGE: José María Casanova Colorado, Cartagena from Los Barcos de Eugenio – Eugenio´s Warships, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.Three Ropucha-class landing ships were spotted transiting the Straits of Denmark on Monday the 17th, and were captured by Michael Christensen (@tekmic64). Additionally, a Sentinel satellite captured the transit.
On Tuesday the 18th, an additional two Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship made the transit.
According to reporting by marineschepen.nl, the hydrographic survey vessel Zr.Ms. Luymes escorted three Russian landing craft through the North Sea, assumed to be the 3 Ropucha-class ships.
The Ropucha-class landing ship can transport 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 BTRs and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LBs, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo.
The Ivan Gren-class can transport 40 BTRs or IFVs and 300 troops.
Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)
Another way to destroy NATO. How does that work? The EU represented by France and Germany agree to no support for Ukraine. I wouldnt want to be the Ukraine in those negotiations. What about the rest of the members?
northern watch
TB Fanatic
no.
Hogwrench
Senior Member
Fear porn right there. E-6s fly every day. There are other planes that have been regularly up recently that concern me a hell of a lot more. Add that to very large count EAM’s the last few days and it’s safe to say that there is a least a chance that things may get sporty.
I am definitely seeing and hearing things that indicate that bidet is at least slightly concerned over this.
Except this is barely breaking onto the MSM. Most people dont know anything about it.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
No, I don't think so. The USA being party to NATO's attempt to keep Russia from stealing Ukraine doesn't absolve the guilty parties of the other things that have been forked up.
Walking and chewing gum simultaneously, we can do that.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
Yep. We know about it because we pay attention. If this was meant as a distraction, I'd think it would be in the MSM. Right now, I think our administration is trying to keep this quiet because they don't know what they're doing.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I would say that was true a very few days ago, but more and more it's in the MSM. As noted here articles from CNN. Saki blubbered it on the press conference.
No where near what it needs to be for sure, but its starting to make its way into MSM. For whatever reason, to distract from the total cluster in DC, the breakdown in the narrative over covid, mandates etc. May even be in the wag the dog fashion, soon.
But yeah for a lot of folks it will be like: "Whaaaaaat? When did this happen?"
I think we will get a chance, if you can stand it, to see how important it is to Biden in a couple of hours. I can't take it, I'm going to watch the soccer game.
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
I think it was back in 2017 that a Franco - Germanic think tank opinioned that there should be a European Army to rival Nato, this was jumped on by quite a few EU politicians and bureaucrats.
bobfall2005
Veteran Member
Not yet. Average American knows nothing about this.
Distracting us, the rest are on board with anything. Targeted at their opposition. Gives excuse also for economic crash, when out of the blue, it is sprung on the masses. Can't have midterm elections, we're in the middle of a war.
Defiantly lots of everything in the air today. Most I have ever seen at one time. Did not look too far east(past Nebraska) but all the places you might expect training are defiantly training.
Donna_in_OK
Veteran Member
I noticed a LOT of UK fighters up in the air along their eastern coast today.Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel
By Guest Contributor
UK Defence Journal
January 19, 2022
Amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian navy has sortied 5 Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship from their Baltic fleet.
AIS data from marinetraffic.com indicates the ships are en route to the English channel. Marineschepen reports that “the supervision was then taken over by Belgian and British naval vessels”.
This amphibious assault flotilla is heading towards the English Channel, and will almost certainly head for the Black Sea.
Three Ropucha-class landing ships were spotted transiting the Straits of Denmark on Monday the 17th, and were captured by Michael Christensen (@tekmic64). Additionally, a Sentinel satellite captured the transit.
On Tuesday the 18th, an additional two Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship made the transit.
According to reporting by marineschepen.nl, the hydrographic survey vessel Zr.Ms. Luymes escorted three Russian landing craft through the North Sea, assumed to be the 3 Ropucha-class ships.
The Ropucha-class landing ship can transport 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 BTRs and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LBs, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo.
The Ivan Gren-class can transport 40 BTRs or IFVs and 300 troops.
Russian amphibious assault flotilla to transit English Channel (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)
Also, to note, as far as NATO sentry up... yeah well, apparently they aren't good enough for France cause they had one up to join the 2 others today. So yeah I can see the Germany and France nuisance.
A lot of things are out of theater right now is an interesting note that we should be careful about. While some are things to be concerned about -- it is possible that others may not be.
colonel holman
Veteran Member
Yep.
And they told key players in MSM to keep it off the screens for the sake of nat’l security.
They could be scared shitless over making the wrong decisions or even daring to make a decision, letting Ukraine become a purely spectator sport for the US and NATO.
No response at all just might be the most survivable decision, they just might conclude.
There were two UK fighters flying east through Nevada. Never have I seen that before.
This is north of LV Nevada now. Airbus KC2 Voyager (A330-243MRTT)
Airbus A330 MRTT - Wikipedia
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Sweetwood
Senior Member
It’s almost or is Red Flag time. Nellis AFB may be hosting them for it.
I thinks so. Looks like they landed in Salt Lake.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
That has never happened.
SouthernBreeze
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Is Blinken that stupid? How much clearer does Russia have to be in their central core demands? How often do they have to state them, before he understands?
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
View: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1483903127065698310
View: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1483904344001073154
VIENNA, January 19. /TASS/. The West faces the moment of truth, which has started the countdown in wait for the adoption of Russian proposals on security guarantees addressed to the United States and NATO, Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, said on Wednesday.
Gavrilov spoke at the meeting of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation, which is first in 2022.
"There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security," Gavrilov said. "I am convinced that with goodwill and a willingness to compromise in any situation, it is possible to find a way out to mutually acceptable solutions. We are running out of time. The countdown begins."
The Russian diplomat believes that what is at stake is to minimize military spending and to resolve the security issues, which are not pressing for Russia alone, but for all the nations in Eurasia and the Euro-Atlantic area as well.
Gavrilov pointed out that the NATO actions had resulted in fragmentation of the pan-European space and inflicted huge damage to the authority of the OSCE, which has turned into a hostage of the narrow agenda of the "collective West."
In these circumstances, the Russian delegation will henceforth be coming up at the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation with just the issues that meet its own national interests, the head of the Russian delegation stressed.
On December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a draft agreement with the United States on security guarantees and another one on measures ensuring the security of Russia and NATO member states. Russia-US consultations on these issues were held in Geneva on January 10. A Russia-NATO Council meeting was held in Brussels on January 12. On January 13, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich presented these proposals at a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna.
tass.com
View: https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1483904344001073154
VIENNA, January 19. /TASS/. The West faces the moment of truth, which has started the countdown in wait for the adoption of Russian proposals on security guarantees addressed to the United States and NATO, Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control, said on Wednesday.
Gavrilov spoke at the meeting of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation, which is first in 2022.
"There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security," Gavrilov said. "I am convinced that with goodwill and a willingness to compromise in any situation, it is possible to find a way out to mutually acceptable solutions. We are running out of time. The countdown begins."
The Russian diplomat believes that what is at stake is to minimize military spending and to resolve the security issues, which are not pressing for Russia alone, but for all the nations in Eurasia and the Euro-Atlantic area as well.
Gavrilov pointed out that the NATO actions had resulted in fragmentation of the pan-European space and inflicted huge damage to the authority of the OSCE, which has turned into a hostage of the narrow agenda of the "collective West."
In these circumstances, the Russian delegation will henceforth be coming up at the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation with just the issues that meet its own national interests, the head of the Russian delegation stressed.
On December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a draft agreement with the United States on security guarantees and another one on measures ensuring the security of Russia and NATO member states. Russia-US consultations on these issues were held in Geneva on January 10. A Russia-NATO Council meeting was held in Brussels on January 12. On January 13, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich presented these proposals at a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna.
Russian delegation declares start of ‘countdown’ in wait for adoption of Russian proposals
"There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security," the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control Konstantin Gavrilov said
tass.com
emiliozapata
Senior Member
This plan would, IMO, virtually insure that if the Russians go in that they will do it 100%- no east of the river,but a full , overwhelming and genocidal assaultHow Russia could sleepwalk into ‘Vietnam War’ in Ukraine invasion facing kill zones, guerrillas & US special forces
RUSSIA could sleepwalk into a Vietnam-style war in Ukraine where it faces fierce resistance by guerrilla fighters backed by US special forces.
Vladimir Putin has massed 100,000 troops massed on the border with Ukraine but its neighbour hopes any invasion will see Kremlin forces sucked into killing zones in a long and bloody conflict.
Fears have been mounting that Putin could order his forces to launch what he hopes would be lighting strike for a quick victory over Ukraine.
But behind the scenes, several hundred US Green Beret special forces have been working with the Ukrainians to ensure Russia faces a bloodbath in the country.
The CIA has also been working on secret training that has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians", a former agency official has said.
And Ukrainian forces are already being equipped with anti-tank weapons by the UK which guerrilla forces would use to create killing zones for massed Russian armoured forces.
Despite being initially overrun by the sheer number of Russian forces, it’s now widely believed the “fiercely nationalistic” Ukrainians plan to keep fighting.
Defence analyst Colonel Richard Kemp and told The Sun Online the prospect of Russia becoming embroiled in a Vietnam-style a war is “definitely a possibility”.
“It would need assistance in the form weaponry and intelligence from the United States, the UK and other countries,” said Col Kemp, who commanded UK forces in Afghanistan.
“If Russian forces occupy Ukraine, then they need to pay a price for it but that’s not going to come from Nato forces coming in an ejecting them.
“The only option that the Ukrainian people have for defending their sovereignty is that type of warfare. That’s going to cost a lot of lives on both sides.”
Senior serving and former US military leaders have warned the Russians they face an insurgency similar to the one they faced during their 10 year occupation of Afghanistan.
Former US assistant Defense Secretary Lawrence Korb said he recently went to Russia to warn them about invading Ukraine, based on the US experience in Vietnam.
Writing in The National Interest he said that “during my time in Moscow, it became clear to me that the Ukrainian military would not be overrun by the Russians as they were in 2014”.
BATTLE HARDENED
Given reports that Ukraine was preparing to resist Russia using guerrilla tactics it was “likely that its efforts would turn out similarly to the United States experience in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan”.
Rob Clarke, Defence Policy Associate at the Henry Jackson Society, told The Sun Online there will “100 per cent” be a guerrilla war backed by the US if Russia invades.
He said the possibility of such a conflict stems from “just how nationalistic and proud the Ukrainians are”.
He said Ukrainian reserve forces, made up of civilians, have been training for exactly such an outcome.
The Ukrainian conventional forces will quickly be overwhelmed within a matter of weeks and then it’s the civilians and reserves who will fight and the will is there,” he said.
“There will be guerrilla resistance given how proud and nationalistic the Ukrainians are.
“You can expect large CIA funding for a guerrilla war. There will also be American forces on the ground assisting the Ukrainians though not actually fighting.
“There are already several hundred US special forces in Ukraine training and advising the military".
He said “any invasion will be short, swift and incredibly bloody” and Putin’s aim “will probably try to go as far as the capital Kiev for regime change and the return to a pro-Russian leader”.
But while there will be a bloody guerrilla conflict, he believes it’s unlikely to drag on.
BLOODY GUERRILLA CAMPAIGN
“Putin wants a short sharp invasion to get concessions out of the West. Anything longer than March and April is going to be incredibly costly for him politically.
“The one thing Putin cares about is his own survival and that rests on the armed forces.
“If he draws them into a bloody guerrilla campaign that’s going to lose him the support of the Russian armed forces incredibly quickly.”
Ukraine's former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said his country's forces are "battle hardened" after eight years of fighting Russia.
Polls have shown one in three Ukrainians have said they're prepared to take up arms, he wrote for the Atlantic Council.
Combat veterans, reservists, special forces and "large number of volunteers" will allow Ukraine to create "thousands of highly mobile groups" to attack the Russians.
'EXTRAORDINARILY STUPID'
"This will make it virtually impossible for the Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure its lines of supply," he said.
The UK’s armed forces minister James Heappey has warned a war could be “days away” and said Putin needs to be aware it will be costly for him.
"This is a war in which tens of thousands of people are going to die and if Putin is being briefed in Moscow that this can be bloodless he's being lied to,” he told the BBC.
Speaking on LBC later, he feared Putin could be tempted into an invasion without fully thinking through the consequences.
“I think there is a grave possibility that he may and I think that it would be an extraordinarily stupid thing to do,” he said.
“There's absolutely no chance, as I fear Putin might believe, that the Ukrainians are ready to welcome him as their liberator.
“I was in Kiev last week and what I saw was a proud, sovereign nation facing an existential threat and knowing to the very core of their being that they will fight every inch."
Russia may sleepwalk into 'Vietnam War’ in Ukraine with guerrillas & US troops
RUSSIA could sleepwalk into a Vietnam-style war in Ukraine where it faces fierce resistance by guerrilla fighters backed by US special forces. Vladimir Putin has massed 100,000 troops massed on the…www.thesun.ie
Vegas321
Live free and survive
Have a feeling, Russia will hit our "Missile defense" bases in Poland and Romania. Once this kicks off.
That is a major point of their issue. Ukraine is only secondary.
Keep that in mind folks...
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Apparently so
thereisnofork
Veteran Member
The stop of a nuclear sub in theatre is a really bad move by our military. If this sub is not being actively tracked I would be surprised.
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
"The Countdown Begins"...maybe I'll go fill up my gas tanks and get some additional preps...
We can't understand what Russia's core demands are even after they wrote them down and gave them to us???
Blinken is a liar and a fool, as are his handlers.
Our installed bureaucrats are used to pontificating with no tether to truth, and then being supported by a media who will spin it positively no matter how false or even ridiculous their words.
This situation desperately needs statesmanship, but we have suited idiots with no practical experience, honor or integrity.
I wouldn't let Blinken mow my yard, and yet he's our point man in negotiating what could escalate into global nuclear war.
We're threatening more severe sanctions and have been sending CIA, .mil and weapons to Ukraine to teach them to "kill Russians".
I think Russia is about to deal with our constant antagonisms in ways that we will not expect or like, and I don't think it will be at all limited to Ukraine.
Blinken is a liar and a fool, as are his handlers.
Our installed bureaucrats are used to pontificating with no tether to truth, and then being supported by a media who will spin it positively no matter how false or even ridiculous their words.
This situation desperately needs statesmanship, but we have suited idiots with no practical experience, honor or integrity.
I wouldn't let Blinken mow my yard, and yet he's our point man in negotiating what could escalate into global nuclear war.
We're threatening more severe sanctions and have been sending CIA, .mil and weapons to Ukraine to teach them to "kill Russians".
I think Russia is about to deal with our constant antagonisms in ways that we will not expect or like, and I don't think it will be at all limited to Ukraine.
SouthernBreeze
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Exactly!
Not even close on this one.
I truly believe there will be as much hatred directed toward the Obama 3.0 regime and even the established media will be shocked at the lack of circle the wagons to support the flag. It is a combination of their complete ignorance of the thinking capabilities of the ‘fly over people’ and their belief in the power of their messaging.
Their ignorance is only matched by their arrogance.
Freakin morons!!!
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
10 days till the OLYMPICS start, February 3rd to the 20th, roughly 27 days in total.
Putin just gave ANOTHER ULTIMATUM. 27 to 30 days sounds about right for the go order. February 20th meets all the requirements.
Putin just gave ANOTHER ULTIMATUM. 27 to 30 days sounds about right for the go order. February 20th meets all the requirements.
SouthernBreeze
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I must have missed that. When did he give another ultimatum of 30 days? Here I was thinking that Putin wouldn't start anything, until Blinken got back to the states from his meeting with Lavrov. I was thinking things would kick off then, but 30 more days of this back and forth?
that would make it another full moon....
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
He didn't. His "guy" at the meeting TODAY said "the clock is ticking" and Russia won't negotiate forever.
Coupled with the transport ships BUZZING THE ENGLISH CHANNEL it is clear to me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and Russia is losing patience.
And yes the day after the Olympics end is a hard strike date.
Coupled with the transport ships BUZZING THE ENGLISH CHANNEL it is clear to me TIME IS RUNNING OUT and Russia is losing patience.
And yes the day after the Olympics end is a hard strike date.
colonel holman
Veteran Member
He truly is running out of time if he wants to avoid risk of slowing or stopping his rolling armor if there were either an early spring thaw and/or unexpectedly slow forward progress. I doubt he is one to make strategic mistakes.