ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jward

passin' thru


The Cavell Group

Kidnap & Ransom Consultants, Hostile Environment, Crisis & Survival Training, Travel Security Briefings, Intelligence, Risk, Crisis & Expedition Consultants

Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were significantly reduced from the previous 24hrs. The majority of impacts were in the southeast in the Bakhmut and Donetsk regions and in the south.

2. Russian air activity was generally reduced yesterday.

Russian shelling continues intensively around Bakhmut and around Donetsk, but with reports it has become more sporadic in most other impacted regions.

3. Fighting continues to be intensive near Soledar and around Bakhmut where Russian forces (mostly SOF and Private Contractors) made some minimal gains yesterday.

4. There are reports Russian attack helicopters were active in this region yesterday for a while before one took a near miss from MANPADs near Yakovlivka. There was less activity near Siversk yesterday and overnight.

5. Around Izyum some fighting continues, but Russian offensives here remain mostly stalled with minimal manoeuvres out of their regional FOB here. Ukrainian forces continue to slowly re-secure some ground south of Izyum.

6. There was some activity near Kharkiv yesterday with Russian forces launching offensives on Lebyazhe and Bazaliivka. Reports are these were both repelled, but Russian artillery fire increased on and around this region.

7. The Kharkiv residential region of Saltivka was also targeted with civilian casualties reported.

8. Around Donetsk fighting continues with Russian forces yesterday concentrating on moving on Mar'inka. Minimal gains were made yesterday.

9. East of Zaporizhzhia Russian forces are trying to reinforce frontlines with Ukrainian forces advancing towards them around Polohy from the north and west axis and Ukrainian artillery and air support causing significant losses.

10. The tempo is increasing here with significant fighting likely later this week.

11. Around Kherson Russian resistance continues to be significant with Russian units launching significant attacks on Ukrainian forces near Blahodatne yesterday. However, minimal gains were reported and Ukrainian forces continue to progress in parts, but very slowly.

12. Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian defences and major resupplies in occupied regions with significant attacks on Kyrylivka on the Sea of Azov coast yesterday.

13. Reports that weapons and unit movements from Melitopol were targeted. A command centre was also destroyed near Melitopol.

14. Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea seems to be conducting rotations with vessels in and out of Crimean ports the last 24hrs.

15. There are also reports the Russian Admiral and Commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been replaced and Russia has relocated the majority of its aircraft from Crimea after a number of recent attacks including the Naval HQ of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

16. Reports now that Russian forces are on an increased state of alert in Crimea.

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jward

passin' thru
Flash
@Flash43191300
2h

Europe began to reduce the volume of military aid to Ukraine, – Politico

Thus, for the first time since the start of the war in July, the six largest European countries did not offer Ukraine any new military obligations.
 

jward

passin' thru
Petri Mäkelä
@pmakela1


Two Russian Mig-31 fighters violated Finnish airspace on the western gulf of Finland. Mig-31 violation is very rare and with the recent introduction of air launched ballistic missile into its arsenal a very provocative one.
View: https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1560226642227781637?s=20&t=luG0Mv0c1_uQ5CiPc-aiyQ


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Russian MOD informed that they did indeed transit three Kinzhal armed Mig-31:s to Kaliningrad today. It's not confirmed that these MIG-31:s were the ones violating the Finnish air space. But never the less they are trying to send a signal here. Not working
View: https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1560229820189007875?s=20&t=luG0Mv0c1_uQ5CiPc-aiyQ
 

raven

TB Fanatic

zerohedge
@zerohedge
3m

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS ONLY POSSIBLE AS A RESPONSE AND IN EMERGENCY CIRCUMSTANCES
Which is almost the same thing the US said recently however, when there is an ill defined caveat like "emergency circumstances" then the phrase "only possible as a response" becomes moot and the statement should be understood as:
THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS ONLY POSSIBLE AS A RESPONSE AND IN EMERGENCY CIRCUMSTANCES.
 

Oreally

Right from the start

Putin PULLS BACK jets and helicopters in Crimea after base blitz as his troops MUTINY in humiliating video

VLADIMIR Putin has been forced to pull back his jets and helicopters from Crimea after a massive blitz on Russian military bases - as humiliating video shows mutinying soldiers refusing to fight.

Ukrainian intelligence sources claim some 24 fighter jets and bombers along with 14 choppers retreated deeper into the Black Sea peninsula - or back to mainland Russia.

A view of damaged aircraft at Russia's Saki air base in Crimea after a blast
4
A view of damaged aircraft at Russia's Saki air base in Crimea after a blastCredit: Reuters
Explosions at Novofedorivka military airfield, Crimea
4
Explosions at Novofedorivka military airfield, CrimeaCredit: East2West
Smoke rising after a series of explosions at the Saki airfield
4
Smoke rising after a series of explosions at the Saki airfieldCredit: EPA
Dozens of pro-Putin troops mutinied by refusing to fight in war-torn Donetsk
4
Dozens of pro-Putin troops mutinied by refusing to fight in war-torn Donetsk

Ukraine claimed three Su-35s, three Su-34s, five Su-27s, and three other aircraft flew back to Russia from Belbek airfield in Crimea.

Six Ka-27 helicopters and eight other choppers also fled the airfields, it was claimed.

Russia is believed to have lost at least ten warplanes in the attack on Saki airfield, which was rocked by a blast last Tuesday.

Until this month, Crimea - annexed by Putin from Ukraine in 2014 - had been fairly unscathed from the war.

The retreat suggests Putin fears fresh losses on the battlefield - and the apparent Ukrainian ability to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory could indicate a dramatic shift in the war.

It comes as footage showed the moment dozens of pro-Putin fighters mutinied by refusing to head to the frontline in Donetsk, in the east of Ukraine.

The troops from so-called Luhansk People’s Republic complained of “threats, blackmail, intimidation and deception” to force them to slaughter Ukrainians - and they bluntly refused to fight.

A statement read by one of the fighters said: "We, servicemen from mobilisation reserve battalion 2740, refuse to go and fight in the Donetsk People's Republic.

"We have fulfilled our duty for the defence of the Luhansk People's Republic.

"Victory day was announced by the head of the republic on July 3, 2022.

"With threats, blackmail, intimidation and lies they are now trying to force us to the territory of the DPR."

Crimea provides the main supply route for Russian forces in southern Ukraine - where Kyiv is expected to launch a counter-offensive in coming weeks.
 

shane

Has No Life - Lives on TB
We could get busy here...

Big problems at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia and the Ukrainians are accusing each other of shelling the place. IAEA is jumping up and down demanding allowance of inspectors. Turk President and head of UN are there trying to intercede. Russia may try to shut down the 4 reactors.

Finally, it is being reported that Russia has told their workers in the facility to not come to work tomorrow.

Lots of folks nervous over there.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Fair Use Cited
---------------
Russian villagers evacuate after ammunition base fire near Ukraine border, official says

August 18, 2022
1:13 PM CDT
Last Updated 19 min ago

Aug 18 (Reuters) - The inhabitants of two villages in southern Russia near the Ukrainian border were evacuated on Thursday after a nearby ammunition storage depot caught fire but no one was hurt, an official said.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod region, said in a statement that emergency services were investigating the cause of the fire near the settlements of Timonovo and Soloti, 15 km (9 miles) from Ukraine. He did not give details.

A popular Ukrainian news website posted a video it said showed a large ball of flame erupting from the base. Reuters was unable to immediately verify the video was genuine.

Russia on Tuesday blamed saboteurs for orchestrating a series of explosions at an ammunition depot in Russian-annexed Crimea, further to the south. Last week blasts ripped through a Crimean air base, which Moscow at the time said was caused by an accident. read more

After months in which Russian forces made modest territorial gains in heavy fighting in the east since its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, front lines have been comparatively static for weeks. The government in Kyiv has said it was preparing for a counter-offensive to recapture a swathe of southern territory. read more

Gladkov has in previous months blamed Ukrainian forces for a series of blasts in and around Belgorod, which is around 650 km (400 miles) south of Moscow.

 
Last edited:

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
We could get busy here...

Big problems at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia and the Ukrainians are accusing each other of shelling the place. IAEA is jumping up and down demanding allowance of inspectors. Turk President and head of UN are there trying to intercede. Russia may try to shut down the 4 reactors.

Finally, it is being reported that Russia has told their workers in the facility to not come to work tomorrow.

Lots of folks nervous over there.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
This is very concerning!
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Breaking news on Sky

Ukraine news live: Expert warns of 'ticking nuclear time bomb' - as claims Russia told power plant workers not to turn up tomorrow​

Ukraine latest as shelling continues in Kharkiv, where seven people have been killed in the last 24 hours; Russia accuses Ukraine of planning a "provocation" at nuclear plant; Finland claims that Russian fighter jets violated its airspace.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Petri Mäkelä
@pmakela1


Two Russian Mig-31 fighters violated Finnish airspace on the western gulf of Finland. Mig-31 violation is very rare and with the recent introduction of air launched ballistic missile into its arsenal a very provocative one.
View: https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1560226642227781637?s=20&t=luG0Mv0c1_uQ5CiPc-aiyQ


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Russian MOD informed that they did indeed transit three Kinzhal armed Mig-31:s to Kaliningrad today. It's not confirmed that these MIG-31:s were the ones violating the Finnish air space. But never the less they are trying to send a signal here. Not working
View: https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1560229820189007875?s=20&t=luG0Mv0c1_uQ5CiPc-aiyQ

Someone is going to eat a SAM if they keep that up....
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Guy Elster
@guyelster
·
29m
#BREAKING Explosions reported in Sevastopol, #Crimea
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Hearing reports that Crimea is being attacked. Thought that was Russia's line in the sand?

Crimea has been attacked a number of times in the last week or so.

Ukraine is being coy about taking any responsibility.

New reports coming in right now.
 
Last edited:

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

Update: Governor of Sevastopol: Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian drone.

3:07 PM · Aug 18, 2022·Twitter Web App
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Fair Use Cited
----------------
Sources say blasts hit area near Russian air base, Moscow says no damage done

Aug 18 (Reuters) - At least four explosions hit an area near the major Russian military airport of Belbek north of Sevastopol in the annexed peninsula of Crimea on Thursday, three local sources said.

Separately, the governor of Sevastopol said Russian anti-aircraft forces had downed a Ukrainian drone. Mikhail Razvozhayev, writing on Telegram, said no damage had been done.

 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
What's happening?
---------
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
58s
Russian air defences have been active over Kerch, Nova Kakhovka, Luhansk and Sevastopol this evening. Also explosions have been reported at an ammunition depot in Belgorod southern Russia.
 

jward

passin' thru

The last American in Kabul​


PK Semler






The unsung hero of America’s victorious covert war – aka “Charlie Wilson’s War” – in defeating the Soviet military during their occupation of Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989 is a career US Foreign Service officer, retired ambassador Jon D Glassman.

Acting ambassador to Afghanistan (1987-89) Jon D Glassman during the Soviet occupation speaks to Capitol Intelligence/CI Ukraine using CI Glass during an interview with Capitol Intelligence Group – Turning Swords into Equity on August 14, 2022, in Olney, Maryland
Glassman’s leadership as chief of mission at the US Embassy in Kabul from 1987 to 1989 played a key part in orchestrating the humiliating defeat of the Soviet military, immortalized by the picture of Russian troops crossing the Hairatan Bridge toward the Uzbek SSR on February 15, 1989, under Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
Russlan military crossing Hairatan Bridge into Uzbekistan during Russian withdrawal on February 15, 1989. Photo: © A Solomonov / . Соломонов

While the heroes in the 2007 film Charlie Wilson’s War, such as maverick US congressman Wilson himself and Greek-American CIA agent Gust Avrakotos, gained worldwide fame from their portrayals by Tom Hanks and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman, it was Jon D Glassman who was on streets of Kabul and the provinces, pipelining actionable political, diplomatic and military insights to the US State Department and the White House under Jimmy Carter and then Ronald Reagan.
While the supply of arms and logistics of feeding them to the Afghan mujahideen were managed by the Central Intelligence Agency out of Islamabad, Glassman was a US State Department diplomat operating in the belly of the beast, Kabul.
“[CBS News anchor] Dan Rather and Charlie Wilson put one foot in Afghanistan; I was walking the streets of Kabul talking to Afghans,” Glassman said in an interview with Capitol Intelligence Group – Turning Swords into Equity in his home in the DC suburbs of Maryland. This is the first print and televised interview ever granted by Glassman on his time in Afghanistan.
During the day, Glassman would spend his time talking to Afghans and managing his team reporting on Russian troop maneuvers by driving between tanks while in the evening imbibing endless quantities of vodka with Russian and Warsaw Pact diplomats.

But Glassman’s time in Kabul during the successful covert war initiated by Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Polish-born national security adviser under Carter, is an extremely relevant example for all those working to defeat the Russian military after Moscow’s bloody invasion of Ukraine on February 25, 2022.
The Soviets did not expel or assassinate Glassman, which speaks volumes on the deep-seated Russian fear of engaging in any direct military conflict with the United States, considering Glassman and his embassy staff were providing critical support to the mujahideen and the great rebel leader Ahmad Shah Massoud in the fight against the occupation.
The last time the US military directly engaged with the Russian military was in Syria, when US special forces ended up killing between 300 to 600 members of Wagner, the private Russian mercenary group now actively fighting in Ukraine.

Blinken’s failure​

It is too early to calculate how many innocent lives could have been saved, or if the Russian invasion could have been avoided altogether, if US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had studied and learned from Glassman’s time in Kabul by not closing the US Embassy in Kiev at the outset of the Russian invasion.
Washington Post foreign-affairs columnist Josh Rogin has said it is widely expected that Blinken will be fired by President Joe Biden after the midterm elections in November and replaced by US Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.
Former US ambassador to Moscow and now CIA director Bill Burns is leading the new “Charlie Wilson’s War,” helping to inflict unprecedented casualties against Russian military and general staff. The decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, including changes by then-director General David Petraeus, has militarized the CIA to a point not seen since the height of the Vietnam War.

Diplomatic heroism​

Glassman also noted that no one should be surprised by the completely irrational and senseless invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it is only a repeat of the irrational and pointless invasion of Afghanistan by Leonid Brezhnev in 1979, and the Cuban missile crisis under Nikita Khrushchev in 1962.
Glassman, for his part, is hopeful that Russians themselves will force out Putin and the half-dozen Rasputin-like mafia dons who have taken over the Kremlin.
“If we can take out the five crime families of New York, the Russians can do the same,” Glassman said.
Glassman serves as an example of diplomatic heroism by serving on post during an active conflict, the most critical duty of any emissary and the genesis of diplomacy itself.
The native New Yorker personally volunteered to lead the US Embassy in Kabul in 1987, which had been led at a lower level after US ambassador Adolph “Spike” Dubs was kidnapped and then killed in a gun battle after visiting the US Culture Center in Kabul in February 1979.

Arnold Lewis Raphel, the US ambassador to Pakistan, was killed on August 17, 1988, when the C-130 Hercules military aircraft carrying himself and Pakistan’s military leader, President Muhammand Zia-ul-Haq, and 34 other passengers allegedly crashed shortly after taking off from a Pakistani airport.
However, Glassman said in the interview that the Russian ambassador to Kabul at the time, Nikolai Yegorychev, had implied during an unprecedented visit to the US Embassy in Kabul that the plane may have been destroyed by “patriotic forces” of the puppet Afghan communist regime.

“He [Yegorychev] knew me because I was the only Westerner [in Kabul] who knew Russian. I had a lots and lots of conversations with this guy Yegorychev. He was a lonely man, I was a lonely man, so we talked. So one time he says to me there is a logistics thing, you are giving the stingers stuff [to the mujahideen] and we can’t accept this,” Glassman said.
“‘I am going to tell you something, some patriot … a loyalist out of Pakistan is going to shoot down one of your supply planes.’ So a few weeks, a couple of months go on, and then the plane with Zia-ul-Haq and Arnie Raphel on board blows up.”
After the destruction of the C-130, Glassman said, “Yegorychev comes to see me and says it is a very bad moment but I want to tell you, that we, the Russians, had nothing to with this…. So I say, what about your allies here [in Afghanistan]? He said I cannot speak for them.
“That was an implicit admission that they [the Russians] were aware of it and they were trying to hand off the blame. The Afghan [government] could not have done it alone without the Soviets being involved. The game they were playing is saying they did it, not I.”

With speculation that the C-130 was destroyed as revenge for Zia’s backing the United States against Russia, a joint US-Pakistan investigation was made into the crash, with an official US-Pakistan finding that it was an accident and not an act of hostile fire or sabotage. Glassman’s recollection of the meeting with Russian ambassador Yegorychev completely contradicts the official US and Pakistani government findings.
US chief of mission Jon D Glassman taking the US flag after closing the US Embassy in Kabul in 1989 Photo:. ©Jon Glassman

Unlike what happened after last year’s fall of Kabul, Glassman took the US flag under his arm from the US Embassy in Kabul in 1989, and handed it to then-president Reagan in victory.
Glassman later became the US ambassador Paraguay at age 47 and then deputy national security adviser to Dan Quayle, the vice-president under George H W Bush.

Peter K Semler is the chief executive editor and founder of Capitol Intelligence. Previously, he was the Washington, DC, bureau chief for Mergermarket (Dealreporter/Debtwire) of the Financial Times and headed political and economic coverage of the US House of Representatives and Senate.

The last American in Kabul
 
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