ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jward

passin' thru
Not really part of this war, but. . .

Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
52m

This could be a big deal. Very important facility


Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
FIRE ERUPTS AT UK NUCLEAR SUBMARINE SHIPYARD

A major fire broke out at BAE Systems' Submarines site in Barrow-in-Furness, where UK nuclear submarines are constructed.

Authorities confirmed there's no nuclear risk, but residents were urged to stay indoors as emergency services responded.

Two people were taken to the hospital with smoke inhalation, and others were safely evacuated from the Devonshire Dock Hall.

BAE Systems, one of the world’s largest defense contractors, is responsible for building Astute and Dreadnought submarines for the Royal Navy.

Source: Sky News, @SputnikInt
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1851490666246775077
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Not really part of this war, but. . .

Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
52m

This could be a big deal. Very important facility


Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
FIRE ERUPTS AT UK NUCLEAR SUBMARINE SHIPYARD

A major fire broke out at BAE Systems' Submarines site in Barrow-in-Furness, where UK nuclear submarines are constructed.

Authorities confirmed there's no nuclear risk, but residents were urged to stay indoors as emergency services responded.

Two people were taken to the hospital with smoke inhalation, and others were safely evacuated from the Devonshire Dock Hall.

BAE Systems, one of the world’s largest defense contractors, is responsible for building Astute and Dreadnought submarines for the Royal Navy.

Source: Sky News, @SputnikInt
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1851490666246775077

If this had happened in Russia, then it would be claimed to have been done by those wily Ukraine saboteurs! :hmm:

After all, accidents just don't happen in the Evil Empire of Sauron! Oops, I mean Putin. :eye:
 

jward

passin' thru
:hmm:
Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55

"Russia and Ukraine are holding preliminary talks on ending mutual attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, with Qatar acting as a mediator, the Financial Times writes.

At the same time, the article notes that Moscow is unlikely to agree to a deal as long as the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in the Kursk border area."

If Russia intends to win this war, then what kind of deals can we even talk about? How many deals did the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany have during WWII?
 

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport
25m

Zelensky blasts Biden administration for leaking classified information to NYT:

“Tomahawk: It was confidential information between Ukraine and White House. How to understand this massage? So, it means, between partners there is no confidential things.”
 

raven

TB Fanatic
I looked on "the google" for all the countries that North Korea has deployed troops to . . . for all their foreign military bases . . . for all the foreign military adventures that North Korea has had to hone the expert military skills that make them such a threat.

There are none.

Be afraid . . . very very afraid.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
If this had happened in Russia, then it would be claimed to have been done by those wily Ukraine saboteurs! :hmm:

After all, accidents just don't happen in the Evil Empire of Sauron! Oops, I mean Putin. :eye:
YEP - YET ANOTHER FIRE - guess they make good video.
Yes if we have any in Russia - has to be the anti-Putin Russians or the Ukrainian wonder soldiers - for democracy
Any in the EU - Russian terrorist - setting them between their primary work of interfering in elections

Maybe we should go back and review the US NAVY ship that burned out - AT DOCK - total loss.
Russian terrorist ???

San Diego naval ship fire: 57 treated for minor injuries as blaze continues to burn​

 

Mzkitty

I give up.
I looked on "the google" for all the countries that North Korea has deployed troops to . . . for all their foreign military bases . . . for all the foreign military adventures that North Korea has had to hone the expert military skills that make them such a threat.

There are none.

Be afraid . . . very very afraid.

I read somewhere yesterday that all the NK soldiers are teenagers................

1730300763067.png
 

Abert

Veteran Member
:hmm:
Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55

"Russia and Ukraine are holding preliminary talks on ending mutual attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, with Qatar acting as a mediator, the Financial Times writes.

At the same time, the article notes that Moscow is unlikely to agree to a deal as long as the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in the Kursk border area."

If Russia intends to win this war, then what kind of deals can we even talk about? How many deals did the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany have during WWII?
Not sure on the source but this is likely OLD NEWS from several months ago. There were reports of such talks but they ended with the Kursk invasion. Hard to discuss cooling things down when in the middle of talks you do a major escalation.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
I read somewhere yesterday that all the NK soldiers are teenagers................

View attachment 508726
I can recall seeing a LOT of teenagers in US ARMY Green back in the day - was even one of them.

As for Poland - this story keeps getting pushed out for at least the last 6 months. Very unlikely Poland will be tossing out their LIMITED amount of multi-million dollar AD missiles. Besides Poland does not need US approval.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Talk about your double standard - US more interested in election issues in Georgia (nation) than in the US.
But that only happens when the "fix" does not go the way you expected.
Holding back recognition till investigations take place - sounds a bit like the Jan 6th demand.

Biden calls for investigations into country of Georgia’s election results​

President Biden on Tuesday called for the government in the country of Georgia to investigate all election irregularities, holding back recognition of the claimed victory by the ruling party Georgian Dream following the parliamentary contest on Saturday.

“We call on the Georgian government to transparently investigate all election irregularities, to repeal laws such as the so-called ‘foreign influence law’ that limit freedoms of assembly and expression, and to begin an immediate, inclusive dialogue with all political forces in Georgia about restoring election integrity,” the president said.


The US get upset when their 20,000 funded political NGO get shut down. The US paying operatives via NGO's is democracy - being forced to report who is paying them (CIA) - limiting freedom of expression.

100% you can be sure this a perfect example of what the US does and has done around the world - and is 100% taking place right now in the US. Only have a week or so to see how the "fix" works out here.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Western Media Admits Ukraine is Losing​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvwhumdylQY

Run time - 42:06
Oct 30, 2024

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for October 30, 2024 …

Western media admits Ukraine losing territory and cities at an accelerated rate;

Western media also admits Ukraine’s growing manpower crisis and an inability to address it;

Repeated claims of “North Korean” troops entering into the conflict continue to outweigh actual evidence and may be an attempt to sell Western intervention;

Western intervention in Ukraine will compromise Western dominance in the Middle East and Asia;

The West faces a choice of either doubling down in Ukraine or pivoting to the Middle East and/or the Asia-Pacific;

References:

CNN - Russia claims control of key town of Selydove in Ukraine’s Donetsk region (Oct 29, 2024): https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/29/eu...

Reuters - Russia took 196 square km of Ukraine last week, Agentstvo media says (Oct. 29, 2024): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

Economist - Ukraine is now struggling to survive, not to win (Oct. 29, 2024): https://www.economist.com/europe/2024...

Foreign Policy - Conscription Is Breaking Ukraine (Oct. 28, 2024): https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/...

WSJ - Ukraine Resorts to Shaking Down Nightlife Spots for Recruits as Troop Numbers Fall (Oct. 29, 2024): https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-res...

NYT - With Limited Options, Zelensky Seeks a Path Forward for Ukraine (Oct. 29, 2024): https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/wo...

RAND Corporation - Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019): https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...

Washington Post - North Korea’s elite troops are in Russia to fight Ukraine: What we know (Oct. 29, 2024): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
 

Abert

Veteran Member
The West faces a choice of either doubling down in Ukraine or pivoting to the Middle East and/or the Asia-Pacific;
Well this is a MESS 100% created by the West (US) and they have no clear Plan B of how to get out of it.
Plan A - Sanctions and a collapse of Russia - Israel taking out Iran - Isolate China - nothing worked out as expected.

The only doubling down for Ukraine is direct US engagement with troops and Air - not likely to go over very well in the US.
Pivoting to the ME - the US may not have a choice - if Israel keeps up their actions they can very well DRAG the US into it more than they have so far. As for China - good luck with that after Ukraine and Israel have drained the bulk of our weapon systems.

Trump or Harris will have an almost impossible task of getting things back to some level normal but not likely to happen.
Trump being a 100% Nationalist will come down hard to maintain US dominance - first with economics but military if necessary - recall he placed more Sanctions on Russia than any other Pres. and he activity stopped the NS2 development for several years. Harris will do whatever the MIC tells her to to - more conflicts - more contracts - more taxes to pay for it.

Whatever happens (or not) next week - the show will continue.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I looked on "the google" for all the countries that North Korea has deployed troops to . . . for all their foreign military bases . . . for all the foreign military adventures that North Korea has had to hone the expert military skills that make them such a threat.

There are none.

Be afraid . . . very very afraid.

IIRC per MSM they've deployed pilots and missile technicians in the past to Libya and Syria.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
IIRC per MSM they've deployed pilots and missile technicians in the past to Libya and Syria.
Well . . . If true . . . they seemed to have provided a great deal of military acumen in those assignments . . . NATO is rightly terrified.

Wait . . . Didn’t NATO obliterate Libya? and Syria too?

Sooooo . . . Why are we scared of North Koreans in Russia? They aren’t even supposed to be in Ukraine.

If you are going for all that, I got a Russian Dossier with Trumps name on it for you.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Well . . . If true . . . they seemed to have provided a great deal of military acumen in those assignments . . . NATO is rightly terrified.

Wait . . . Didn’t NATO obliterate Libya? and Syria too?

Sooooo . . . Why are we scared of North Koreans in Russia? They aren’t even supposed to be in Ukraine.

If you are going for all that, I got a Russian Dossier with Trumps name on it for you.

In one report, the NORK techs had an accident with a reportedly chemical warhead while training the Syrians.....

As Cold War "proxy" forces, the record of the Cubans shines well above the NORKs only being eclipsed in missile and nuclear technology proliferation by Pyongyang.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
In one report, the NORK techs had an accident with a reportedly chemical warhead while training the Syrians.....

As Cold War "proxy" forces, the record of the Cubans shines well above the NORKs only being eclipsed in missile and nuclear technology proliferation by Pyongyang.
Those weren’t NORKS. They were CIA.
 

jward

passin' thru
If this had happened in Russia, then it would be claimed to have been done by those wily Ukraine saboteurs! :hmm:

After all, accidents just don't happen in the Evil Empire of Sauron! Oops, I mean Putin. :eye:
I can't get to worked up o'er the lies that get pushed by the message massagers that all sides send out- it's war 101 and been a time honored tactic since, well, forever.

Having said that, I've never given the wily ukies much credit for those events, seems when it's not force majeure I'm smelling the faint odor o' domestic troublemakers. :: shrug :: but whadda I know eh, not like anyone pays ME to think. Or to post/push POV :hmm:
 

jward

passin' thru
Still trying to figure out what the angle is on this latest narrative - being spun up and pushed HARD - for some reason??
I'm glad you raised the question- I've been wondering that as well, and all that's come to mind so far is that they're laying their trail of per-fabricated excuses because they are fixing to intervene overtly, and want to use that as the casus belli...
 

jward

passin' thru
NEXTA
@nexta_tv

Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had asked Poland to protect a Ukrainian gas storage facility from Russian missiles, but were refused because of NATO

At a meeting with leaders of communities and districts in the Transcarpathian region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had asked Poland to help protect gas storage facilities in Stryi in Lviv region from the Russian air attacks.

“We have good neighborly relations with Poland. The people of Poland have supported us. There are different challenges, we have constantly asked them to shoot down missiles that are coming in the direction of Poland. There we have Stryi, gas storage facilities, the country depends on this gas supply, our lives. Especially in winter,” - said Zelenskyy.

According to him, Ukraine asked Poland to “protect Stryi” because it does not have the appropriate number of air defense systems.

“What Poles, shoot down? No. The Poles said they are ready to shoot down if they are not alone in this decision, if NATO supports them,” the president said.

“Allied forces took to the skies shooting down rockets and drones over Israel when the US wanted them to. That's the whole answer,” Zelenskyy emphasized.
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

AI-AUGMENTED DRONES HIT THE BATTLEFIELD IN UKRAINE

Ukraine has deployed AI-powered drones capable of navigating signal jamming to hit Russian targets autonomously, marking a new phase in the technology race with Russia.

Deputy Defense Minister Kateryna Chernohorenko reports "dozens of AI systems" now in use for special ops, allowing drones to spot and attack targets independently when standard controls are disrupted by electronic warfare.

Ukraine’s NORDA Dynamics has already sold over 15,000 units of automated targeting software for military drones.

Officials say AI-targeted drones are achieving strike rates of up to 80%, significantly increasing operational success rates.

Source: Reuters
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Demetri
@Dimi
10h

SCOOP - Biggest US drone maker ⁦(@SkydioHQ which supplies Ukraine with drones for intelligence gathering) faces supply chain crisis after China bans company from selling batteries to the group.
Also been reports over the last month or so that China had also cut back / stopped selling some critical drone components to Ukraine - likely more a message to the US about to who and what business they do worldwide. Sanctions (hard or soft) can go both ways.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Demetri
@Dimi
10h

SCOOP - Biggest US drone maker ⁦(@SkydioHQ which supplies Ukraine with drones for intelligence gathering) faces supply chain crisis after China bans company from selling batteries to the group.
More details - yep - China can do Sanctions as well as the US.

China sanctions US drone maker Skydio in ongoing trade war​

The embargo has sent the company racing to find alternative battery suppliers.​


China has sanctioned Skydio, America’s largest drone maker, for providing unmanned aerial vehicles to Taiwan’s national fire service. Skydio CEO Adam Bry publicly acknowledged the sanctions on Wednesday. “A few weeks ago, China announced sanctions on Skydio for selling drones to Taiwan, where our only customer today is the National Fire Agency,” Bry wrote in a blog post.

Among the customers Skydio has been contracted to provide X10 drones to was Ukraine’s military, which planned to use the UAV for reconnaissance missions. Before the sanctions, Ukraine had requested thousands of X10 units, according to the Financial Times.
 

Abert

Veteran Member

Poland Will Defend Western Ukraine️ - Kurakhivka Has Fallen​

Latest updates - once again some version of a No Fly Zone - been tossed out for the last few years - article from the Hill on this linked (12 min)
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkRF1JKbsa4


Push on getting US / NATO "approval" to take an active part - as before this is likely not going to happen.

Bipartisan House members push Biden to allow Poland to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine​

 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Russia’s Gazprom Boosts 2024 Investments to $16.9 Billion

By Charles Kennedy - Oct 30, 2024, 11:30 AM CDT

Gazprom is raising its investment plan for 2024 by 4% to $16.9 billion (1.642 trillion Russian rubles), thanks to rising exports and domestic supply, the Russian gas giant said after approving its new financial plan for the year.

Previously, Gazprom was targeting investments of a total of $16.5 billion (1.574 trillion rubles) for 2024.

The Russian company continues to develop key projects, including such aimed at boosting natural gas supply to China, Famil Sadygov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee at Gazprom, said in a statement carried by Russian news agency TASS.

Gazprom still exports natural gas via pipelines to Europe, via a link crossing Ukraine, and through the TurkStream pipeline. The customers are several countries in central Europe.

Russia has seen its gas exports to Europe significantly reduced since the invasion of Ukraine. The major drop in Gazprom’s gas deliveries was due to the halt of Russian pipeline gas exports to nearly all European countries.

Weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russia cut off supply to Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland.

Then Gazprom started to reduce supply via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany in June 2022, claiming an inability to service gas turbine maintenance outside Russia due to the Western sanctions against Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine. This was weeks before the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines at the end of September 2022, which definitively closed all pipeline gas routes of Russia’s gas to Germany.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russia supplied around one-third of all the gas to Europe.

With most of European markets now closed, Russia appears to be struggling to convince China to take on more pipeline gas. Beijing is not committing to a massive new pipeline project to import Russian pipeline gas unless it’s favorable for the world’s second-largest economy.

But Gazprom is pressing on and is accelerating its natural gas exports to China through the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, aiming to hit maximum capacity by the end of 2024—a full year ahead of schedule.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
View: https://youtu.be/sJkkRW0A_88?si=FLwz-sa3zG_SRnCI

9:44 minutes

Natural Gas losses $$$$ continue.
Interesting POV.
The elephant in the room is winter is coming, soon.
Has Ukraine prepared and notified all the EU nations for the expiration of any and all gas contracts with Europe, which I believe will expire by December 15th?
Ukraine will be refusing to allow natural gas transit to the European nations, starting in January.
Ukraine's current transit contract with Gazprom expires in December.
Ukraine was receiving over 1 Billion Euros for transit fees. (LOSS)

Ukraine is loaded with legacy Soviet heating systems, which are natural-gas powered.
and people with access to natural gas would still have hot water and radiant heat which are essential. (LOSS)
People will be freezing and migration out of Ukraine to Europe could be astronomical.

How are they going to pipe in natural gas from Scandinavia, Poland, Germany, Romania, and through which pipelines?
And how will Ukraine pay?

The United States was again the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe (EU-27 and the UK) in 2023, accounting for nearly half of total LNG imports, according to data from CEDIGAZ. Last year marks the third consecutive year in which the United States supplied more LNG to Europe than any other country: 27%, or 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), of total European LNG imports in 2021; 44% (6.5 Bcf/d) in 2022; and 48% (7.1 Bcf/d) in 2023.

Qatar and Russia remained the second- and third-largest LNG suppliers to Europe last year. Qatar supplied 14% (2.0 Bcf/d), and Russia supplied 13% (1.8 Bcf/d). Combined, the United States, Qatar, and Russia supplied three-quarters of Europe’s LNG imports in 2022 and 2023.


Generally, electricity is costly and inefficient to provide heating.
The electricity shortages (80%) compromises the quality of life (entertainment, hours of activity) and reduces train traffic (much of Ukraine's passenger trains are electric).

Gazprom will continue to turn to the East because business is up in Central Asia, China, India, Thailand, etc.

Europe's unforeseen consequences.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
View: https://youtu.be/sJkkRW0A_88?si=FLwz-sa3zG_SRnCI

9:44 minutes

Natural Gas losses $$$$ continue.
I understand the DESPERATE desire to find ANY hint that somehow Russia is going to fail - and by default Ukraine (and NATO) are going to come out on top.

Gazprom is far from going out of business - and per this propagandist claim that NO ONE wants their GAS - well how about a NON POLITICAL article (Dated TODAY ) from an industry source - 100% just the opposite of his foundational claim. Accounting profits and losses can be misreading and can be a result of many factors. But actual sales, gas flows and future investments - not a business on the rocks - as MUCH as some would like to think.

Russian Pipeline Gas Flows to Europe Hit Year High​


Gazprom’s pipeline gas exports to Europe hit a one-year high in terms of daily flows last week as the EU struggles to phase out Russian gas imports.

Russia’s state-run gas giant and sole pipeline gas exporter supplied 99.0 million cubic meters on Oct. 23 to Europe, excluding Turkey but including other non-EU destinations on the continent. It was the highest daily level since Oct. 18, 2023, when it supplied 99.3 MMcm, according to gas transmission data.

Gazprom hasn’t supplied that much since the summer of 2022, when the 55 billion cubic meter per year Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany was still in operation, although already well below capacity.
 
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