ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
The problem with Foggy Bottom and inside the Beltway in general is that all these folks think they're all the smartest people in the room and even if they find out that they're only playing checkers when in fact the game on the table is a combination of multiple chess boards and poker games they still insist they know what they're doing.....
Yeah, same deal when you go to school board meetings, overwhelmingly attended by the teachers, and their libtard friends.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The conclusion was from some deep diving on the wars. During theNapoleonic wars we saw the industrial revolution unflold. Some indicators were that war were a contributor to that devlopment. The other factor was that there was a rapid development in arms as a result of war as the artillery design and guns used changed significantly to a more managable unit from a cannon using cannon balls to a artillery gun using shells. The Napoleonic wars basically saw the move away from black powder based arms to cartridge based ammunition(significantly lighter and more mobile.) Below is the closest I could find on things but above is basically my conclusion on the Napoleonic wars and economic development


The Prussian wars was more about being logistics specifically trains being the centerpiece of winning. Germany had optimized the trains for war, the French had not. The other note in the Prussian wars is it established the borders Germany now has and set it up as an empire. France was also behind technoclogicaly with bronze instead of steel barrels on some of their weapons. Germany basically had the upper hand, but the core of things with the inferior artillery equipment getting knocked out first thanks to them listening to their (spies unlike the french), the French were basically screwed by being stuck to using small arms at that point. The cartridge based ammunition was also easier to carry as it was to load as most militaries were mostly converted at this point if memory serves, the partial refitting means that black powder weapons were retrofitted to handle cartridge based ammunition, but most of those had been in the process of being phased out to new cartridge based rifles.


WW1 is where the real manufacturing issues came in as by that point everyone or nearly everyone was converted over the cartridge based ammunition. It also caused a lot of standardization amongst militaries. The core issue was with the shell based ammunition used in artillery now they were literally able to consume their entire inventory of artillery shells in hours or days and everyone was outcompeting eachother to stay ahead of the other in terms of manufacturing as the industrial revolution was completed, but still wartime manufacturing was needed to provide the production levels needed.


WW2 was WW1 on steroids from a manufacturing perspective. Germany still used horses for the military at this point. Germany specifically first invated neighbooring countries for resources. IT was also a technological war as no one could match the U-571 boats until about the 70s or so on what they had managed to do with the extreme engineering and functionality of some parts, doors that could swing closed with one person easily and seal being perfectly balanced. Had Germany focused on the smaller tanks(instead of the mous), the Sturmgewehr for the standard infantry rifle(which was the precursor to most modern rifles), and waited to invade russia by 1-2 years, they would have won hands down. Germany's core issue was access to resources to manufacture more for the coming war effort. The US had resources in spades and without them Russia would have lost, along with Brittain and everyone else, and without US manufacturing Germany would also have won, and the US biggest issue throughout the war was logistics thanks to the efforts of the uboats taking out so many merchant ships moving supplies to europe and the pacific.

Or at least that is what I can recall at this point from previous readings on things.
Can you give a little more detail on Napoleonic and Prussian wars.
I would also include to make it relevant to today is this:

When France under Napolean went to war with Russia, and we all remember their defeat due to the extreme cold, we tend to either forget or don't know that, Prussia was an Ally of France in that invasion.


The French invasion of Russia, also known as the Russian campaign, the Second Polish War, the Army of Twenty nations, and the Patriotic War of 1812 was launched by Napoleon to force the Russian Empire back into the continental blockade of the United Kingdom. Napoleon's invasion of Russia is one of the best studied military campaigns in history and is listed among the most lethal military operations in world history.[18] It is characterized by the massive toll on human life: in less than six months nearly a million soldiers and civilians died.[19][17]

On 24 June 1812 and the following days, the first wave of the multinational Grande Armée crossed the Niemen into Russia.

After a whole day of preparation, the invasion commenced on Wednesday, 24 June [O.S. 12 June] 1812 with Napoleon's army crossing the border.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_invasion_of_Russia#cite_note-61 The army was split up into five columns:

1. The left wing under Macdonald with the X corps of 30,000 men (half of them Prussians) crossed the Niemen at Tilsit on the 24th.[60] He moved north in Courland but did not succeed in occupying Riga. Early August he occupied Dunaburg; early September he returned to Riga with his entire force.[61] On 18 December, a few days after the French left the Russian Empire, he drew back to Königsberg, followed by Peter Wittgenstein. On 25 December one of his generals Yorck von Wartenburg found himself isolated because the Russian army blocked the road. After five days he was urged by his officers (and in the presence of Carl von Clausewitz), at least to neutralization of his troops and an armistice. Yorck's resolution had enormous consequences.

per wiki
 

Oreally

Right from the start
An update on the brewing Russian civil war and the recent incursions into Russian territories by the Russian liberation forces

Specifically mention of recent Pregozhin agreement with the Chechen army and where that might lead

Also a bit of a tactical projection of the location of the Ukrainian counter offensive

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CreSgYCKstM
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
KJ, you might want to augment your very good information summary with a reading of Big Serge's substack column. (He only publishes something every couple of weeks but everything I've read of his work has been well-researched and he's an outstanding writer as well as military historian IMO). He's written his entire columns of substack submissions on the history of battle maneuver and innovations done by outstanding people throughout history, but he also documents their ultimate failures as well as properly crediting them with what radical ideas they were implementing during their time.

He has done this work through the development of modern Euro-Asian warfare techniques through to the present war in Ukraine. His latest work - a postmortem of the 9-month Battle of Bakhmut - is very long but an outstanding read.

I know we're supposed to post the full article but it would take several posts to completely include it all, plus some very large graphics showing the different orders of battle (and the corresponding units) in their proper time of insertion into the theatre. It's the most rational work I've read so far about this battle - a refreshing change from the work of some emo who must think he's the second coming of Jim Carrey.

Everyone please cut me some slack for just including the link to his latest article (and to all his previous ones which can be freely accessed):

The Battle of Bakhmut: Postmortem
I THINK (therefor I am) that it is OK down in a thread, not the OP, to post a link with a synopsis which is what you did, so should be OK.

I've done it that way. But am not saying if you copy my paper you will pass the final exam.
 

Oreally

Right from the start
I would also include to make it relevant to today is this:

When France under Napolean went to war with Russia, and we all remember their defeat due to the extreme cold, we tend to either forget or don't know that, Prussia was an Ally of France in that invasion.


The French invasion of Russia, also known as the Russian campaign, the Second Polish War, the Army of Twenty nations, and the Patriotic War of 1812 was launched by Napoleon to force the Russian Empire back into the continental blockade of the United Kingdom. Napoleon's invasion of Russia is one of the best studied military campaigns in history and is listed among the most lethal military operations in world history.[18] It is characterized by the massive toll on human life: in less than six months nearly a million soldiers and civilians died.[19][17]

On 24 June 1812 and the following days, the first wave of the multinational Grande Armée crossed the Niemen into Russia.

After a whole day of preparation, the invasion commenced on Wednesday, 24 June [O.S. 12 June] 1812 with Napoleon's army crossing the border.French invasion of Russia - Wikipedia The army was split up into five columns:

1. The left wing under Macdonald with the X corps of 30,000 men (half of them Prussians) crossed the Niemen at Tilsit on the 24th.[60] He moved north in Courland but did not succeed in occupying Riga. Early August he occupied Dunaburg; early September he returned to Riga with his entire force.[61] On 18 December, a few days after the French left the Russian Empire, he drew back to Königsberg, followed by Peter Wittgenstein. On 25 December one of his generals Yorck von Wartenburg found himself isolated because the Russian army blocked the road. After five days he was urged by his officers (and in the presence of Carl von Clausewitz), at least to neutralization of his troops and an armistice. Yorck's resolution had enormous consequences.


per wiki
I know we're going a bit thread drift here discussing Napoleon but I have been studying this war actually recently and it occurs to me that is an example of success going to your head

Up until the invasion of Russia by Napoleon he had been phenomenally successful in conquering all of Europe and putting it under his sway except for England and Russia
The invasion of Russia was to bring them into the European system that excluded England economically

And perhaps HouseCarl came sway in on this but I have been wondering why it was that instead of invading Russia with 600,000 troops and trying to get all the way to Moscow Napoleon didn't simply wheel to the left and capture the Petersburg and block their economic contacts with England thereby strangling Russia

It seems to me that in doing that he succumb to an ego maniacal wish to be the greatest general in history greater than even Alexander the Great instead of simply settling for the best deal he could get without military glory

Now back to our regular channel the war in Ukraine
 

raven

TB Fanatic
So if I understand this . . .
A caterer and some convicts
defeated
the most formidable million man army ever assembled on the European Continent
led by the best military strategist NATO could assemble.

That settles it.
At the next soiree, I am definitely going with the Russian caterer 'cause they apparently deliver.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
1685885379067.png
1685885470322.png

Hundreds of thousands of people have joined marches against Poland’s national-conservative ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the country’s largest demonstrations since mass protests against the introduction of a near-total ban on abortion in 2020.

At the main march in Warsaw alone, half a million people attended, according to an initial estimate by city hall, which is under opposition control.

Amid a red, white and blue sea of Polish and European flags, participants waved banners blaming PiS for soaring inflation and accusing it of nepotism, corruption and destroying democracy. PiS has condemned the event as a “march of hate”.

More, don't see them mentioning their troops in Ukraine though:

 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
This might bear watching later this month. Putin is not going to be thrilled about this much activity.

Fair Use Cited
----------------
Largest NATO exercise since the end of the Second World War: Airspace over Germany temporarily closed

It will be the largest NATO exercise since the end of the Second World War. In June, German airspace in particular will be temporarily closed for this purpose. What travelers need to consider during the "Air Defender 23".

By: Moritz Bletzinger
Created: 04.06.2023, 11:59 a.m.

Frankfurt – In June, many fighter jets will be flying over Germany for several days. NATO is planning the largest deployment since its founding. Hundreds of aircraft will train in German airspace, which will mean that civilian aircraft will not be able to use this space during this time. People who have booked a flight during this time are likely to feel restrictions.

The NATO exercise "Air Defender 23" will take place from June 12 to June 23 and involves the participation of pilots and crews from 18 nations as well as up to 10,000 soldiers with over 220 aircraft. The U.S. alone is deploying more than 100 aircraft to four locations in Germany. The aim of the exercise is to be prepared for a possible crisis. The Air Force has stated that pilots and crews will practice according to the principle of "train as you fight", which means that they will train in the places where they will be deployed in an emergency.

Reason NATO exercise
Mission name Air Defender 23
Area German airspace
Period 12 to 23 June 2023

NATO exercise over Germany: Air traffic blocked for more than two hours

The NATO exercise will impose some restrictions on civilian air traffic, but the Air Force is trying to keep them as low as possible. However, there will be no civilian air traffic for about two hours a day in the northern, southern and eastern air training areas used for military purposes. To ensure that the airspace is truly free, these areas will also be closed shortly before and after the two hours. Civil airlines will have to fly around these areas to avoid restrictions.

The Air Force emphasizes that flight operations to the major civilian airports in Germany will not be immediately closed during the exercise, but that there may be shifts in flight times. The planning of flight times and routes during the NATO exercise over Germany has not yet been completed.

Right to alternative transport: NATO and tour operators have these obligations

According to travel lawyer Paul Degott, a tour operator has an obligation to inform travelers without being asked about all the circumstances necessary for the proper execution of the trip. He told the portal Reisereporter.de. This also includes possible impairments caused by the NATO air exercise. If the organizer neglects this obligation to provide information, claims for reduction can be asserted.

If a flight is cancelled due to the NATO exercise, passengers have the right to alternative transportation. If the airline does not offer an alternative connection, passengers can choose a connection themselves, including a train journey. The costs can then be claimed from the airline. If a replacement flight is not available until the next day, the airline must organize accommodation in a mid-range hotel and transport there, according to travel lawyer Degott. In the event of a flight delay of more than two hours, you are entitled to a free meal and a drink. Similar regulations also apply to trains that are affected by a delay. (Kiba/dpa)

This article was created using machine assistance. For this purpose, a language model was used that relies on information from various sources. Prior to publication, this text was edited by editor Moritz Bletzinger. Feel free to leave us feedback in our comments section.

 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Hmm, business as usual booming with the European nations.
Austria buys natural gas, Ukraine buys diesel.
Everything's all right now.

Last year, in 2022, the Austrian oil and gas company OMV bought natural gas from Gazprom for €6.8 billion.

Such is the successful "energy independence from Russia." But that is not all.
As the Austrian media found out, OMV extended long-term contracts with Gazprom until 2040 in advance (the current ones were supposed to expire in 2028). And these contracts, moreover, cannot be terminated ahead of schedule.

It seems that Austria has decided that speeches about "solidarity with Ukraine" are speeches, and the batteries will not heat themselves. And the lights don't turn on by themselves.

Calm your nerves, breathe in the sobering alpine air... Adopt the experience of colleagues with normal economic education.

 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I know we're going a bit thread drift here discussing Napoleon but I have been studying this war actually recently and it occurs to me that is an example of success going to your head

Up until the invasion of Russia by Napoleon he had been phenomenally successful in conquering all of Europe and putting it under his sway except for England and Russia
The invasion of Russia was to bring them into the European system that excluded England economically

And perhaps HouseCarl came sway in on this but I have been wondering why it was that instead of invading Russia with 600,000 troops and trying to get all the way to Moscow Napoleon didn't simply wheel to the left and capture the Petersburg and block their economic contacts with England thereby strangling Russia

It seems to me that in doing that he succumb to an ego maniacal wish to be the greatest general in history greater than even Alexander the Great instead of simply settling for the best deal he could get without military glory

Now back to our regular channel the war in Ukraine

I just double checked my initial answer to your question and got it confirmed.

The biggest reason for taking Moscow instead of St. Petersburg was the fortifications defending St. Petersburg were considered too strong to tackle compared to Moscow while the economic and transportation hub that Moscow was would from a cost benefit situation for Napoleon the much better option to force the czar to capitulate.

There's also the fact that the French couldn't blockade the port so starving them out wasn't an option.

Napoleon didn't understand or expect the kind of resistance he was going to face after Borodino. It, and the campaign, was probably his biggest failure after the Iberian Campaign.

Thread drift off.....
 
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Melodi

Disaster Cat
Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....

Prigozhin says Kremlin factions are destroying the Russian state​

By Guy Faulconbridge
June 3, 2023 6:41 AM PDT Updated 14 hours ago
  • Summary
  • Prigozhin: conflict with Chechens settled
  • Prigozhin: Kremlin factions endanger the state
  • Says defence ministry is in chaos
  • Wagner may go to Belgorod region - Prigozhin
MOSCOW, June 3 (Reuters) - Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday that Kremlin factions were destroying the state by trying to sow discord between him and Chechen fighters.

That row had now been settled but infighting in the Kremlin had opened a Pandora's Box of rifts, he said.

Prigozhin, a 62-year-old former restauranteur who founded the Wagner mercenary group and is a member of President Vladimir Putin's wider circle, has gained widespread notoriety during the 15-month war in Ukraine.

His troops have spearheaded battles in the city of Bakhmut and elsewhere, but he has also rowed with the Russian military over tactics, logistical support and other issues.

Prigozhin said a dispute between him and Chechen forces who are also fighting alongside the Russian army in Ukraine had been resolved. But he laid the blame for the discord on unidentified Kremlin factions - which he calls "Kremlin towers".

Their scheming had got so out of hand that Putin had been forced to scold them at a Security Council meeting, he said.

"Pandora's Box is already open - we are not the ones who opened it," Prigozhin said in a message posted by his press service. "Some Kremlin tower decided to play dangerous games."

"Dangerous games have become commonplace in the Kremlin towers...they are simply destroying the Russian state."

He did not identify the Kremlin faction but said that it continued its attempts to sow discord, it would have "hell to pay". The Kremlin did not comment on his remarks.

Putin held a Security Council meeting of Friday about what he said were "interethnic" relations inside the country.

Prigozhin said Chechen remarks made about him sounded like something out of the early 1990s when conflicts gripped Russian cities after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"Clearly the statements made were rather provocative, aimed at hurting me and freaking me out," Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also said any battle between Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's Akhmat special forces and Wagner would result in serious bloodshed but there was no doubt who would win.

He also again vented his anger about the current state of the war and the culpability of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

"The ministry of defence is not in a state to do anything at all as it de-facto doesn't exist - it is in chaos," Prigozhin said.

The defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Niether Shoigu nor Gerasimov have commented in public about Prigozhin's comments.

Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Angus MacSwan
Housemate whose Mother studied in Russia said, "At the moment, at least 50 different factions are fighting it out in Moscow right now." By fighting, she means they are trying to seize power. Her Mother is a retired professional Russian-German simulantious translator.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Housemate whose Mother studied in Russia said, "At the moment, at least 50 different factions are fighting it out in Moscow right now." By fighting, she means they are trying to seize power. Her Mother is a retired professional Russian-German simulantious translator.
Any read on the political currents involved? How many of those are ready to whop the ever-loving out of Ukraine as opposed to cutting and running?
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Jun 4, 2023
While not taking away from the immense sacrifices and efforts of the the involved forces, allied aid to Ukraine has been one of the decisive factors in the war so far.

Ukraine has constantly sought new capabilities, while Russian media and politicians have often tried to stoke fears and warn against taking any additional steps.


1:10:22

Escalation Strategy & Aid in Ukraine - How the West manages Russian nuclear threats and 'red lines'

View: https://youtu.be/fWKGYnO0Jf4


Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Escalation Management & Strategy In Ukraine
00:01:45 – What Am I Talking About
00:02:47 – Historical Escalation Management & Proxies
00:10:03 – Escalation Theory
00:21:49 – Red Lines & Escalation
00:39:34 – Russian Escalation Response
00:52:01 – Understanding Russia's Response
01:00:05 – Next Steps
01:08:31 – Conclusions
01:09:55 – Channel Update
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE
3 JUN, 20:25

Russia's newest satellites to change course of Ukrainian conflict — former UN inspector​


According to Ritter this conflict would become "unsustainable for the Ukrainian sometime by the end of summer, early fall"


NEW YORK, June 4. /TASS/. Russia's new radar surveillance satellites will allow Moscow to change the course of the conflict in Ukraine, former US intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector to Iraq Scott Ritter said.

Ritter pointed out that the Russian Federation recently launched "the first of several radar surveillance satellites that have a resolution of up to one meter, which means it can see everything." "It can see through clouds, it can see through rain. It can see through everything. High resolution radar, and they are seeing everything right now," he said.

"You can't hide anything from the Russians anymore," Ritter stressed. "And it's going to have a fundamental shift in how this [Ukrainian] conflict goes because all that stuff that's been brought - can't hide it," he continued, referring to Western weapons coming into Ukraine.

"They [the weapons] are all detected now and they're all getting programmed into the Russian target database. And the Russians are gonna start hitting this stuff, more and more and more and we see evidence of this already," Ritter pointed out, adding that in his opinion this conflict would become "unsustainable for the Ukrainian sometime by the end of summer, early fall.".
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Any read on the political currents involved? How many of those are ready to whop the ever-loving out of Ukraine as opposed to cutting and running?
I think that is kind of all over the map as well. She has told me in the past (my housemate) that some want to smash Ukraine by any means necessary, and others are plying to antiwar sentiment within Russia. Some of the Oligarchs are really unhappy with the current situation, especially the ones that lost their money.

But all of that has been speculated on here already. I didn't realize that while 50 different factions may be a bit of an exaggeration (I don't know), I didn't realize there was nearly that number. Some of whom are probably looking for the right time to make a move. My housemate also said that Putin's security levels are very high, making a direct strike difficult though no one in his position is ever completely safe.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
One fact that is common to all modern military forces is that only a small percentage of the total number of soldiers are actually engaged in combat. At least that is the theory. The concept of “Tooth – to – Tail Ratio” is military-speak to describe the amount of military personnel it takes to supply and support (“tail”) each combat soldier (“tooth”).
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

Drone Education: Putin Orders Russian Schools to Teach Students How to Use Same Weapons Used in War Against Ukraine​

By:Connor Surmonte
Jun. 2 2023, Published 4:30 p.m. ET

Vladimir Putin ordered a number of schools across Russia to start teaching a “building and programming drones” course amid the country’s ongoing war against Ukraine, RadarOnline.com has learned.

In a startling development to come as the 70-year-old Russian leader’s battle against Ukraine continues to escalate, Russian students aged 12 to 15 are reportedly learning how to assemble and fly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Even more surprising are reports that the Russian schools were forced to spend more than $10,000 per drone in order to teach the new Putin-implemented weapons course.

“Schoolchildren in the Kaliningrad region will be taught not only to manage but also to develop drones,” Daily Star reported this week.

“Secondary school No. 50 in Kaliningrad placed a purchase of an educational air module for the development of UAVs for [$98,000],” the report continued.

“The school will spend another [$53,000] on the software and hardware complex for piloting an unmanned aircraft with the function of aerial photography.”

The sudden move came just weeks after Putin called for schools across Russia to begin teaching “educational programs” about drones “as soon as possible.”

“This so-called early career guidance will ultimately benefit the country,” Putin said in April.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Drone Education: Putin Orders Russian Schools to Teach Students How to Use Same Weapons Used in War Against Ukraine​

By:Connor Surmonte
Jun. 2 2023, Published 4:30 p.m. ET

Vladimir Putin ordered a number of schools across Russia to start teaching a “building and programming drones” course amid the country’s ongoing war against Ukraine, RadarOnline.com has learned.

In a startling development to come as the 70-year-old Russian leader’s battle against Ukraine continues to escalate, Russian students aged 12 to 15 are reportedly learning how to assemble and fly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Even more surprising are reports that the Russian schools were forced to spend more than $10,000 per drone in order to teach the new Putin-implemented weapons course.

“Schoolchildren in the Kaliningrad region will be taught not only to manage but also to develop drones,” Daily Star reported this week.

“Secondary school No. 50 in Kaliningrad placed a purchase of an educational air module for the development of UAVs for [$98,000],” the report continued.

“The school will spend another [$53,000] on the software and hardware complex for piloting an unmanned aircraft with the function of aerial photography.”

The sudden move came just weeks after Putin called for schools across Russia to begin teaching “educational programs” about drones “as soon as possible.”

“This so-called early career guidance will ultimately benefit the country,” Putin said in April.

Hummmm.....First thing that came to mind reading this was the UK during WW2 were using secondary school shop classes and said students to help with the production of STEN guns.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Russia Rapid Advance Marinka, Avdeyevka, Kupyansk; US Military Trainers Describe Dire State Ukr Army​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uTsC2jcEU0

Run time - 1:24;19
Jun 4, 2023

TIME STAMPS

- More missile attacks and Russia perfecting reconnaiscance 00:00

- Marinka 13:16

- Avdiivka 16:50

- Boris Roszin: Kupiansk and other battles 20:20

--- Doggy capturing Bone-iansk 23:45

- Bakhmut 25:30

- Tchechens 3 operational theatres 29:33

- Close Wagner source: Bakhmut was NOT operationally irrelevant 36:00

- London Times: Not-Spring offensive will become not-Summer offensive 41:26

- Camouflage-Jesus cutting out the bottom of the already bottom-less money pit 44:25

- Article: Chaotic situation in Ukr military and long weapons discussion 53:03

- Summary and comments 1:18:10
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
S&P Global drew an infographic about how Russia has adapted to the sanctions.

The Crimean waters and the exclusive economic zone of our country play a special role in this: according to the American corporation, this is where the transshipment of oil from one ship to another takes place. In the dark and with the transponders turned off. On the one hand, this kind of leads to increased trade risks. On the other hand, Russia easily circumvents sanctions. Moreover, in Q1 2022, the global number of "secret" transshipments of fuel was 161, and in Q1 2023, it was already 524.


View: https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1665423005474799621?cxt=HHwWioC2ocrZ4pwuAAAA
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Dark Truth Behind Ukraine's NATO-Armed Border Raids + Cost of Attrition Continues to Mount​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63ZLa0_RWbI

Run time - 42:17
Jun 4, 2023

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for June 3, 2023

- Ukrainian cross-border operations are spearheaded by militants identified by even the Western media as N*z**;

- Ukraine has increasingly relied on terrorism following the loss of Bakhmut and a growing missile and drone campaign being carried out by Russia across Ukraine;

- New “security assistance” package from the US Department of Defense to Ukraine includes munitions reflecting Ukraine’s growing shortage of air defense capabilities;

- Talk of tanks and warplanes are admittedly for Ukraine’s use in the distant future, not for the upcoming offensive;

References:

Newsweek - Troops Cross Into Russia as Putin's Army Fights To Defend Belgorod—Report (June 1, 2023): https://www.newsweek.com/tanks-russia...

Washington Post - Use of NATO arms for attack in Russia raises doubts about Kyiv’s controls (June 3, 2023): https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...

NBC News - Who are the anti-Putin groups behind the dramatic raid into Russia? (May 26, 2023): https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/be...

US Naval Postgraduate School - Thesis: Soccer Hooligans to MMA - the Changing Face of the Radical Right Through Sports (June 2022): https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1185...

Washington Post - Ukraine’s Attacks on Russia Are a Calculated Gamble (June 1, 2023): https://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...

CNN - Ukraine’s cross-border tactics are aimed at destabilizing Russia. Judging by the response, they’re working (June 2, 2023): https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/02/eu...

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (May 31, 2023): https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases...

Voice of America - US: Tanks, F-16s Part of Long-Term Aid for Ukraine, Not Upcoming Offensive (June 2, 2023): https://www.voanews.com/a/us-tanks-f-...

Defense Express (Ukraine) - US Says it Now Sends AIM-7 to Ukraine But How Will it Work? (June 1, 2023): https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_...

CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023): https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/po...

The Drive - Evidence Of American Zuni Rockets Arming Ukrainian Su-25s Emerges (May 2023): https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hummmm.....First thing that came to mind reading this was the UK during WW2 were using secondary school shop classes and said students to help with the production of STEN guns.
Yup, and the other countries better follow suit as this sort of change is a game changer so to speak. You have a whole generation trained to do this tuff then war is asymmetric and not symetrical any more...
 

Oreally

Right from the start
I just double checked my initial answer to your question and got it confirmed.

The biggest reason for taking Moscow instead of St. Petersburg was the fortifications defending St. Petersburg were considered too strong to tackle compared to Moscow while the economic and transportation hub that Moscow was would from a cost benefit situation for Napoleon the much better option to force the czar to capitulate.

There's also the fact that the French couldn't blockade the port so starving them out wasn't an option.

Napoleon didn't understand or expect the kind of resistance he was going to face after Borodino. It, and the campaign, was probably his biggest failure after the Iberian Campaign.

Thread drift off.....
Thanks that question has been on my mind for many many years so I appreciate this answer
 

Oreally

Right from the start
This might bear watching later this month. Putin is not going to be thrilled about this much activity.

Fair Use Cited
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Largest NATO exercise since the end of the Second World War: Airspace over Germany temporarily closed

It will be the largest NATO exercise since the end of the Second World War. In June, German airspace in particular will be temporarily closed for this purpose. What travelers need to consider during the "Air Defender 23".

By: Moritz Bletzinger
Created: 04.06.2023, 11:59 a.m.

Frankfurt – In June, many fighter jets will be flying over Germany for several days. NATO is planning the largest deployment since its founding. Hundreds of aircraft will train in German airspace, which will mean that civilian aircraft will not be able to use this space during this time. People who have booked a flight during this time are likely to feel restrictions.

The NATO exercise "Air Defender 23" will take place from June 12 to June 23 and involves the participation of pilots and crews from 18 nations as well as up to 10,000 soldiers with over 220 aircraft. The U.S. alone is deploying more than 100 aircraft to four locations in Germany. The aim of the exercise is to be prepared for a possible crisis. The Air Force has stated that pilots and crews will practice according to the principle of "train as you fight", which means that they will train in the places where they will be deployed in an emergency.

Reason NATO exercise
Mission name Air Defender 23
Area German airspace
Period 12 to 23 June 2023

NATO exercise over Germany: Air traffic blocked for more than two hours

The NATO exercise will impose some restrictions on civilian air traffic, but the Air Force is trying to keep them as low as possible. However, there will be no civilian air traffic for about two hours a day in the northern, southern and eastern air training areas used for military purposes. To ensure that the airspace is truly free, these areas will also be closed shortly before and after the two hours. Civil airlines will have to fly around these areas to avoid restrictions.

The Air Force emphasizes that flight operations to the major civilian airports in Germany will not be immediately closed during the exercise, but that there may be shifts in flight times. The planning of flight times and routes during the NATO exercise over Germany has not yet been completed.

Right to alternative transport: NATO and tour operators have these obligations

According to travel lawyer Paul Degott, a tour operator has an obligation to inform travelers without being asked about all the circumstances necessary for the proper execution of the trip. He told the portal Reisereporter.de. This also includes possible impairments caused by the NATO air exercise. If the organizer neglects this obligation to provide information, claims for reduction can be asserted.

If a flight is cancelled due to the NATO exercise, passengers have the right to alternative transportation. If the airline does not offer an alternative connection, passengers can choose a connection themselves, including a train journey. The costs can then be claimed from the airline. If a replacement flight is not available until the next day, the airline must organize accommodation in a mid-range hotel and transport there, according to travel lawyer Degott. In the event of a flight delay of more than two hours, you are entitled to a free meal and a drink. Similar regulations also apply to trains that are affected by a delay. (Kiba/dpa)

This article was created using machine assistance. For this purpose, a language model was used that relies on information from various sources. Prior to publication, this text was edited by editor Moritz Bletzinger. Feel free to leave us feedback in our comments section.

This is such a dangerous development that we all need to keep our heads on a well lubricated swivel for any errant event that might accidentally occur during this exercise .

Very scary.

I personally have relocated to a small village that is a whole lot safer than Lviv City for the time being and probably for the duration of the war.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
Watching this war is more like listening to it than watching it . . .
on the radio, without video and with a 12 hour delay . . . .

on AM radio, in Oklahoma, in the car by yourself, on Friday night, driving north on 377,

to a game between an British rugby team and an American baseball team because nothing else is on . . .
with officiating by an Australian soccer coach and the play-by-play narrated by an Nigerian farmer
neither of which has ever seen either game played
but whose next meal is dependent on US Aid shipments of grain and/or oil exports.

And you hit the seek button and you land on a radio station . . . playing music . . .
and they are playing George Thorogood.

I Drink Alone . . . and you know you have been saved.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpzqQst-Sg8
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
This is such a dangerous development that we all need to keep our heads on a well lubricated swivel for any errant event that might accidentally occur during this exercise .

Very scary.

I personally have relocated to a small village that is a whole lot safer than Lviv City for the time being and probably for the duration of the war.

"Able Archer" comes to mind.....
 
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