ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
Ukraine's Possible Bakhmut Counteroffensive + What Poland's Military Build-Up Means
Run time - 28:26
Mar 13, 2023
Update on conflict in Ukraine for March 13, 2023;
- Bakhmut continues to be encircled by Russian forces;
- The Western media is reporting conflicting claims by Ukraine and Russia regarding steep losses inflicted on opposing sides;
- The West claims Ukraine is inflicting huge losses on Russian forces and that Bakhmut has little strategic value;
- The Western media, however, also admits Ukraine is outgunned between 3:1 to 4:1 in terms of artillery and despite claims that Russia has lost 20,000-30,000 troops around Bakhmut alone, the BBC’s own project verifying Russian losses says as of March 2023 Russia’s 1 year total losses stand at 16,000;
- A counteroffensive by Ukraine may lead to temporary gains, just as in Aleppo, Syria in 2016, however the fundamentals leading to Bakhmut’s encirclement have not been addressed, therefore any gains risk being reversed;
- A Ukrainian counteroffensive on any major scale will divert troops meant for Kiev’s spring offensive, diminishing the combat potential of other upcoming offensives;
- Poland’s military build-up is being hyped by the Western media, however Polish ambitions would see the creation of a military force roughly the size of Ukraine’s military at the beginning of 2022;
- Poland’s build-up will take years to complete;
References:
Live UA Map: https://liveuamap.com/
BBC - Ukraine war: Heavy losses reported as battle for Bakhmut rages (March 13, 2023): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
Kyiv Independent - Media: Public data suggests over 16,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during first year of all-out war (March 4, 2023): https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed...
Washington Post - Opinion Biden must follow Roosevelt’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ example (March 6, 2023): https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...
Financial Times - Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 2023): https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-a...
The Economist - Rebels break the siege of Aleppo, but at a cost (2016): https://www.economist.com/middle-east...
The Telegraph - Poland builds Europe’s largest land force to counter Russian threat (March 11, 2023): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-new...
The Telegraph - A Russian victory in Bakhmut would be a costly strategic defeat for Putin (March 7, 2023): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023...
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Polands build up is the result of an oh crap moment we are screwed after watching Ukraine.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Putin says Russia is fighting for its very existence
Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow, Russia February 21, 2023. Sputnik/Pavel Bednyakov/Kremlin via REUTERS
MOSCOW, March 14 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that what was at stake in Ukraine was Russia's very existence as a state.
Speaking at length to workers at an aviation factory in Buryatia, some 4,400 km (2,750 miles) east of Moscow, Putin expanded on his familiar argument that the West was bent on pulling Russia apart.
"So for us this is not a geopolitical task, but a task of the survival of Russian statehood, creating conditions for the future development of the country and our children," he said.
Putin has accused the West of using Ukraine as an tool to wage war against Russia and inflict on it a "strategic defeat". The United States and its allies say they are helping Ukraine to defend itself from an imperial-style invasion that has destroyed Ukrainian cities, killed thousands of civilians and forced millions to flee their homes.
Putin said in a response to a question that he had been worried about the economy when the West imposed unprecedented waves of sanctions last year but it had proved stronger than expected.
Latest Updates
- Ukraine's president and military vow to keep defending Bakhmut
- Explainer: Bakhmut: Why Russia and Ukraine are battling so hard for one small city
- Kremlin says AUKUS submarine deal raises proliferation questions
- Russia not informed on progress of Nord Stream blasts probe - diplomat
He said the enemy had been expecting that factories would grind to a halt, the financial system would collapse, unemployment would rise, protesters would take to the streets, and Russia would "sway from within and collapse".
"This did not happen," Putin said. "It turned out, for many of us, and even more so for Western countries, that the fundamental foundations of Russia's stability are much stronger than anyone thought." Putin says Russia is fighting for its very existence
jward
passin' thru
HMM.
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
DEVELOPING: 'Incident' involving Reaper drone over Black Sea, Western military sources say
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1635676986734440451?s=20
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
DEVELOPING: 'Incident' involving Reaper drone over Black Sea, Western military sources say
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1635676986734440451?s=20
And we should never forget:
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT ENDORSED KILLING OVER 500,000 CHILDREN IN IRAQ
Half a million children Iraq died due to U.S. sanctions. Former Secretary of State, Madeline Albright, believes this is a valid price to pay for U.S. goals in the region.
www.worldfuturefund.org
.jpg?v=a6a127b4a243923dd1e2140b75f2a43c)
Clinton on Qaddafi: "We came, we saw, he died"
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton jokes with reporter after hearing initial, unconfirmed, reports of Muammar Qaddafi's death
www.cbsnews.com
YES there are many reasons the US is NOT a member of the ICC.
Last edited:
jward
passin' thru
Jeff Seldin @jseldin National Security Correspondent @VOANews Ex @WTOP@FederalNewsNet, @SyracuseU @NewhouseSU |
BREAKING: #Russia|n Su-27 collides with US MQ-9 drone over the #BlackSea Per @US_EUCOM, the Russian aircraft was 1 of 2 conducting " an unsafe & unprofessional intercept" when it struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing US forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in int'l waters" MORE: Before #Russia|n Su-27 hit the US MQ-9 drone, "the [two] Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner" per @US_EUCOM "Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in int'l airspace when it was intercepted & hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash & complete loss of the MQ-9" per US Air Forces Europe & Air Forces Africa Cmdr Gen. James Hecker US commander warns the #Russia|n Su-27 was almost lost, as well "This unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash" per Gen Hecker @US_EUCOM says the incident " follows a pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots...over intl airspace" Incident took place at approximately 7:03 AM (CET) per @US_EUCOM • • • |
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bw
Fringe Ranger
They probably got some useful intel out of that.
Russian jet collides with US drone in international airspace over Black Sea, official says
Story by Liz FridenA Russian Su-27 jet collided with a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea Tuesday, a U.S. defense official told Fox News.
It was one of two Su-27's flying. This happened in international airspace over international waters. The propeller to the drone was damaged and the drone landed in the Black Sea, west of Crimea, the U.S. defense official says.
The Russian Su-27 was headed toward Crimea and landed there after this incident, the official says. It is unknown if there was any damage to the Su-27.
LightEcho
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes indeed. In training I got to watch incoming from a reinforced bunker. Multi-layer glass window.
I will try to attach a pic of shrapnel I collected. The steel is jagged with razor-sharp edges. It is designed to flake apart scattering the irregular chunks of razor edges. Air burst is deadly to ground troops that have no overhead shelter.
Attachments
vector7
Dot Collector
Russian Su-27 ‘shot down’ #US MQ-9 Reaper over the #BlackSea
View: https://twitter.com/bgmilitary/status/1635695088113205248?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/bgmilitary/status/1635695088113205248?s=20
LightEcho
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hey US_EUCOM, get your aggressive asses out of the war zone and adjoining areas. We have no business getting entangled with Russia and you give Russia every excuse to use deadly force against any military aircraft, ground transports, satellites or naval vessels. They have been more than patient. General Hecker can get the heck out of these foreign entanglements unless the MIC already cut your balls off and you can't find the voice to actually be a professional patriotic American soldier.
vector7
Dot Collector
JUST IN - Putin: Nord Stream attack was committed "at state level."
View: https://twitter.com/JohnnyBullzeye/status/1635696781378957337?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/JohnnyBullzeye/status/1635696781378957337?s=20
John Deere Girl
Veteran Member
Please forgive my ignorance, but what the heck does that mean? I'm running on very little sleep and even less caffeine today.
US drone, Russian fighter jet collide over Black Sea
The US military was forced to take down one of its own drones Tuesday after it collided with a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea.
nypost.com
State Level - carried out by a Nation (US) not terrorists or individuals acting on their own - Planed and staffed and executed.
jward
passin' thru
official dot guvs vs rogue agents or subset groups is how I read it.
..but it's lies, all lies, so : )
bw
Fringe Ranger
Forcing NPCs to see truth.
John Deere Girl
Veteran Member
That's what I thought, but was hoping for clarification. Thank you!
jward
passin' thru
John Deere Girl
Veteran Member
Thank you!
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
9m
Lithuania designates Russia’s Wagner as terrorist organisation - LRT
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1635703418596491272?s=20
@EndGameWW3
9m
Lithuania designates Russia’s Wagner as terrorist organisation - LRT
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1635703418596491272?s=20
Tom McDowell
BAMN
March 14, 2023
Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
The U.S. is not going to ask if the "Ukraine can afford the losses". It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
Yes, Kiev, helped by 'western' media, is speaking of a victory that is unlikely to ever come. The view from the field is way different:
Yes, shell shock is real. Being under artillery fire is terrifying. Especially when you are a newbie, sit in a ditch without armor and with no way to respond to it.
Russian artillery supremacy is why Ukrainian losses are a multiple of those on the Russian side. But even if foot soldiers are available and well trained there is nothing that can make up for the loss of an army's backbone:
Replaced with what? It takes years to train a master sergeant or captain. These positions require experience in the field. No civilian training can replace that. Three week courses, run by 'western' officers with no real war experience, will not be able to make up for this:
There will be no weak points. Or maybe there will be some, intentionally left open by the Russians, to draw the Ukrainian 'counterattack' in to then entrap it in one big cauldron.
It is over for the Ukraine. The Russian forces are enveloping Ukrainian units in several small cauldrons. Bakhmut is only one of them. South of it is the New York agglomeration which will become another one. Anviivka, further south, is also in big trouble and may even become the first of the three to fall.
bigger
Even the New York Times has started to notice it:
Not mention by the NYT, but most important is that the Russian forces in all these attacks are destroying the Ukrainian army.
In a few weeks, after those three cauldrons have collapsed, the Ukrainian army will be on the run. It will be summer by then and the mud will have dried up. The Russian forces will then become more mobile which may even allow for wider 'big arrow' moves.
The only way for the Ukrainian army to counter those moves will be the use of the forces it currently prepares for a 'counteroffensive' as defense formations.
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.
Posted by b on March 14, 2023 at 10:19 UTC | Permalink
===
.
Ukraine - Media Start To Acknowledge Reality
Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
The U.S. is not going to ask if the "Ukraine can afford the losses". It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
Yes, Kiev, helped by 'western' media, is speaking of a victory that is unlikely to ever come. The view from the field is way different:
Yes, shell shock is real. Being under artillery fire is terrifying. Especially when you are a newbie, sit in a ditch without armor and with no way to respond to it.
Russian artillery supremacy is why Ukrainian losses are a multiple of those on the Russian side. But even if foot soldiers are available and well trained there is nothing that can make up for the loss of an army's backbone:
Replaced with what? It takes years to train a master sergeant or captain. These positions require experience in the field. No civilian training can replace that. Three week courses, run by 'western' officers with no real war experience, will not be able to make up for this:
There will be no weak points. Or maybe there will be some, intentionally left open by the Russians, to draw the Ukrainian 'counterattack' in to then entrap it in one big cauldron.
It is over for the Ukraine. The Russian forces are enveloping Ukrainian units in several small cauldrons. Bakhmut is only one of them. South of it is the New York agglomeration which will become another one. Anviivka, further south, is also in big trouble and may even become the first of the three to fall.
bigger
Even the New York Times has started to notice it:
Not mention by the NYT, but most important is that the Russian forces in all these attacks are destroying the Ukrainian army.
In a few weeks, after those three cauldrons have collapsed, the Ukrainian army will be on the run. It will be summer by then and the mud will have dried up. The Russian forces will then become more mobile which may even allow for wider 'big arrow' moves.
The only way for the Ukrainian army to counter those moves will be the use of the forces it currently prepares for a 'counteroffensive' as defense formations.
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.
Posted by b on March 14, 2023 at 10:19 UTC | Permalink
===
.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Monday, March 13, 2023
He Went Ice-fishing on Baikal Ice...
... a warm story of the American combat veteran who settled in village... in Siberia.
I can totally relate in search for peace, including this very special one, peace of mind--30 years ago that is how we ended up in America, a very different America then. Russia was also very different.
===
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vector7
Dot Collector
America has been declared Clear and Present Danger by the Russians.
It’s comforting when FEMA releases the nuclear target map. I feel safer now.
View: https://twitter.com/Storm4Congress/status/1623734045573103616?s=20&t=mfoATuowxqo2ds0KwyPuqQ
Because when you're about to lose power...
For starters, the Reagan Doctrine does not exist. The Soviet Union does not exist.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Full:
Russian MoD statement regarding the US Reaper Drone
On the morning of March 14. over the waters of the Black Sea in the area of the Crimean peninsula, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces recorded the flight of an American MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation.
The flight of the unmanned aerial vehicle was carried out with transponders turned off in violation of the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, brought to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards.
In order to identify the intruder, fighters from the air defense forces on duty were raised into the air.
As a result of sharp maneuvering around 9.30 (Moscow time), the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface.
Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with an unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their base airfield.
12:43 PM · Mar 14, 2023
·
46.2K
Views
===
.
On the morning of March 14. over the waters of the Black Sea in the area of the Crimean peninsula, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces recorded the flight of an American MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation.
The flight of the unmanned aerial vehicle was carried out with transponders turned off in violation of the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, brought to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards.
In order to identify the intruder, fighters from the air defense forces on duty were raised into the air.
As a result of sharp maneuvering around 9.30 (Moscow time), the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface.
Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with an unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their base airfield.
12:43 PM · Mar 14, 2023
·
46.2K
Views
===
.
Unmanned, unmarked (remember when they changed the paint schemes), w/o transponder, inside an airspace restricted to military use.
It was basically . . . a pirate.
If you want to rely on the "rule of law" you have to follow the rule of law.
The "rules based international order" does not work outside the social justice, rainbow flag rules.
It was basically . . . a pirate.
If you want to rely on the "rule of law" you have to follow the rule of law.
The "rules based international order" does not work outside the social justice, rainbow flag rules.
LightEcho
Has No Life - Lives on TB
What comes after "starters"?
Well, it wasn't "shot". So it wasn't shot down.
And apparently it wasn't bumped because there were no skid marks on the SU-27 when it landed.
Either the "Wiley Coyote fuel dump" maneuver starved the engine and shut it down or the drone operator lost control.
In any case it is the natural end of life for a "war plane".
naegling62
Veteran Member
DLM. Drone Lives Matter.
Not willing to start a thermonuclear war for a drone.I was hoping that was enough. To fight a war on a false premise, especially when they feel threatened, is like shooting yourself in the foot. Our real enemy is the CCP. We currently find our selves in the same position as we were prior to WW2. Russia is aligning with China right now. They are hedging. But, they know they owe us one. That has never been repaid. They, after aligning with CCP, will come to our rescue after the CCP attacks. When? Don’t know.
BTW, how much intelligence are we giving our enemy’s right now with this stupid war. Putin said it was an exercise. Ya!
mistaken1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
March 14, 2023
Ukraine - Media Start To Acknowledge Reality
Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.
As the Washington Post provides:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.
The opening paragraph:
That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bogged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.
The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.
Back to the piece:
Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.
It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.
The U.S. is not going to ask if the "Ukraine can afford the losses". It will push for a large attack which will have little chance to even get out of its preparation phase.
Yes, Kiev, helped by 'western' media, is speaking of a victory that is unlikely to ever come. The view from the field is way different:
Yes, shell shock is real. Being under artillery fire is terrifying. Especially when you are a newbie, sit in a ditch without armor and with no way to respond to it.
Russian artillery supremacy is why Ukrainian losses are a multiple of those on the Russian side. But even if foot soldiers are available and well trained there is nothing that can make up for the loss of an army's backbone:
Replaced with what? It takes years to train a master sergeant or captain. These positions require experience in the field. No civilian training can replace that. Three week courses, run by 'western' officers with no real war experience, will not be able to make up for this:
There will be no weak points. Or maybe there will be some, intentionally left open by the Russians, to draw the Ukrainian 'counterattack' in to then entrap it in one big cauldron.
It is over for the Ukraine. The Russian forces are enveloping Ukrainian units in several small cauldrons. Bakhmut is only one of them. South of it is the New York agglomeration which will become another one. Anviivka, further south, is also in big trouble and may even become the first of the three to fall.
bigger
Even the New York Times has started to notice it:
Not mention by the NYT, but most important is that the Russian forces in all these attacks are destroying the Ukrainian army.
In a few weeks, after those three cauldrons have collapsed, the Ukrainian army will be on the run. It will be summer by then and the mud will have dried up. The Russian forces will then become more mobile which may even allow for wider 'big arrow' moves.
The only way for the Ukrainian army to counter those moves will be the use of the forces it currently prepares for a 'counteroffensive' as defense formations.
But even that will only give it another three month or so before the inevitable collapse arrives.
Posted by b on March 14, 2023 at 10:19 UTC | Permalink
===
.
Die in place, not one inch leaves no battle hardened soldiers to train replacements. Does not seem like a good long term plan to me.
One more thing, the USA, China, Russia, England, France maybe, Denmark. They were all working on COVID together before the pandemic. Everybody was a big happy family. Not anymore!