here is a conversation i had yesterday with my univ friend on telegram. edited out personal stuff, and a bit for clarity
Me,[1/24/2023 1:56 PM]
pause in offensive war for both sides for now
Me,[1/24/2023 1:56 PM]
but no peace in sight
Him,, [1/24/2023 1:56 PM]
Will see if aircrafts will also be as a component of NATO strategy offence will be easier
Me,[1/24/2023 1:56 PM]
this could go on for years
Him,, [1/24/2023 1:57 PM]
Couse now it's deadfight of 2 soviet armies\
Me,[1/24/2023 1:57 PM]
seems that f 16 are coming later
Him, [1/24/2023 1:57 PM]
So many soldiers died in assaults attempts in Kreminna and Svatove
Me,[1/24/2023 1:56 PM]
may have to evacuate bakhmut
Me,[1/24/2023 1:59 PM]
but only a psychological defeat if it happens.
Him,, [1/24/2023 1:59 PM]
Also it seems like 1 year battling soldiers will have rotation in spring summer so mobilisation of reserves is moving significantly
Me,[1/24/2023 1:59 PM]
so, war resumes in april/may
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:00 PM]
It's just because of beef tactics of officers and they are not stopping till battalion is dead
Me,[1/24/2023 2:00 PM]
unbelievable. what is the population saying?
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:04 PM]
Without nato standards and good commanders we will have huge loses. its main thing now to have controllability in army
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:04 PM]
About mobilisation?
Me,[1/24/2023 2:05 PM]
no. the casualtiy rate and the bad ukranina tactics
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:06 PM]
We can do anything with it just understand it is cruel war
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:06 PM]
Some are terrified of mobilisation
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:06 PM]
Some not
Me,[1/24/2023 2:07 PM]
you mean students
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:07 PM]
But it's total war maybe i will take part after master degree
Me,[1/24/2023 2:08 PM]
wow
Him, [1/24/2023 2:08 PM]
We are joking if someone expelled from the university we'll buy him ammunition and wave him at his way to Bachmut
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:08 PM]
It's sad irony
Me,[1/24/2023 2:09 PM]
in world war 1 france lost an average of 450 guys a day for 4 years, and still won
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:10 PM]
I think that probably we will have 50k loses excluding wounded
Me,[1/24/2023 2:10 PM]
oh, it has to be more now. i guess 100k
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:10 PM]
Just KIA and disappeared in action
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:11 PM]
Big amount of disappeared Is dead but army can't approve it cause of distance to bodies of full body desapear due to shelling
Him,, [1/24/2023 2:12 PM]
With wounded yes
Me,[1/24/2023 2:38 PM]
what is with this?
️#BREAKING Ukrainian media claim that the deputy head of Zelensky's office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, wrote a letter of resignation.
Also, the heads of the Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Sumy regions of Ukraine resigned.
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:28 PM]
Corrupted men with scandals are fired
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:28 PM]
But other corrupted men without scandals still have their chairs as Oleg Tatarov
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:29 PM]
It's agreement with west. They don't give us money if our politics are thieves
Me,[1/24/2023 3:29 PM]
the army, the men who have their lives on the line, are the only ones who can straighten out this society before it is too late.
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:35 PM]
Yes but society is not totally wrong
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:36 PM]
But big part yes
Me,[1/24/2023 3:37 PM]
i know that. it is a lack of long standing civic institutions and a deep rooted civic ethic.
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:37 PM]
I suppose that this war [will cause] bigger conciseness revolution as revolution of 14 year and war before 02.24
Me,[1/24/2023 3:39 PM]
back home we have clubs and private organizations that go back 150 or more years. or we used to. so individuals would have a sense of civic resp9onsibilty. it seems here that was destroyed by the communists in the east and the nazi and communists here.
Me,[1/24/2023 3:40 PM]
what do you think of the azov and right sector people and group
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:41 PM]
Younger generation have feelings of civic society.
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:44 PM]
Azov is elite of right movement with deep ideologic doctrine and have no roots to nazi doctrine, but some of ultras individuals in this organisation may perform as they are nazi just ironically turning russian propaganda narratives.
Me,[1/24/2023 3:45 PM]
so, idiots? guys who just need the image of toughness?
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:47 PM]
We have romantisation of right wing and many teenagers try to do some protest things, but they wouldn't have any response in parlament, or will have 5% of deputies on next elections, they can't form any nazi rezhime in Ukraine.
We only can have Zelensky dictatorship but it wouldn't be radical rightwing
Me,[1/24/2023 3:47 PM]
that image is causing some problems back home.
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:51 PM]
I know one student in territorial defence with yellow blue svastic he claim it inspires him.
We have 5% of radicals which use only flags symbols, and they think it's funny and ironic for russian propaganda it's hard to make them understand
Me,[1/24/2023 3:50 PM]
Are all other political parties banned?
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:51 PM]
Only prorussian parties
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:51 PM]
They are just make business with sluga narodu
Me,[1/24/2023 3:52 PM]
are the parties regional or fully national, or something else?
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:52 PM]
As medvechuk party, comunist party party of regions (yanukovych party)
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:53 PM]
Diferent, very different
Me,[1/24/2023 3:53 PM]
personal?
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:56 PM]
Also we have medzhlis of tatars, we have galychyna party
Forbiden parties prorussian on east south east were elected, on west poroshenko and majority in south center of Sluga Narodu (serve of folks)
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:56 PM]
And other parties
Him,, [1/24/2023 3:58 PM]
Yes but it's not about roots it's about national minorities
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:39 PM]
Abramses is coming!
Me,[1/24/2023 6:41 PM]
hard to believe because of the fuel and maintenance issues. leopards are much better and more numerous, and closer.
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:42 PM]
Yes
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:45 PM]
But Taras Chmut military analytic head of NGO Comeback alive (was in congress in December) says that abramses from long perspective is better variant.
And also it is Sholz claim no abramses no leopard he wants coalitional decision and franch tanks also will be and challengers
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:45 PM]
I suppose that for 1 brigade one unit
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:48 PM]
And germany allows poland to give us leopards tomorow
Me,[1/24/2023 6:49 PM]
apparently. that is good. they are close. getting abrams would take weeks or months
Him,, [1/24/2023 6:54 PM]
Despite if we have learned crew
1. Oligarchs
2. corrupted system where everyone wants a bite
Me,[1/24/2023 4:02 PM]
well, if the country survives, things will be different
Him,, [1/24/2023 4:02 PM]
Exactly
Him,, [1/24/2023 4:03 PM]
But we will have problem with population amount and may be dead people will vote in next elections))))
Me,[1/24/2023 4:03 PM]
laugh
Me,[1/24/2023 4:04 PM]
same problem in US now. dead people voting