Quake Prediction Says "Signal Just Hit," Warns Of Potential Big Earthquake From San Francisco To LA
- Thread starter Blacknarwhal
- Start date
I remember that. Wonder why they stopped tracking the lost/missing pets? It seemed that it was showing some positive correlation?
Noooo, you said the "Q" word.
pauldingbabe
The Great Cat
Blacknarwhal
Let's Go Brandon!
Would anyone actually be able to walk out a building's door, or would the glass pile be taller than the doors?
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Some people are a special kind of stupid. You’re much nicer than I am.
That's a special hell for Fishing Contest cheaters.
Krayola
Veteran Member
Shadow
Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
I do not think anyone was sure what pets were sensing, when they did.
I have a friend who worked Marine aviation during the Mt St Hellens thing. They had repaired a FLIR system and took it for a flight. Since the volcano was in the news they went over it. They thought it was not working as there were no detected animals around Mt St Hellens. As they got away they found animals again, so they flew a grid pattern and found the animals were miles away from the volcano. When they returned they called the rangers and informed them and were told "you guys ate just a bunch of weekend warriors'. Three days later it erupted and 50+ people died.
Shadow
psychgirl
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I remember this!! Wow I’d forgotten all about it!
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I may have missed it, but I don't think anyone said that the energy of the moon's light on the earth had any effect. But the gravitational pull of the moon on the earth certainly DOES have an effect, and it changes depending on where both are in their orbits.
Jim Bekland's basic concept was that just as the GRAVITATIONAL pull of the moon affects the ocean tides, it may also affect the earth itself and/or the water in aquifers underneath the earth. He saw, using computers and lots of hard work, that there does seem to be a correlation between the positions of the moon (and the earth) that adds to this pressure making large or significant quakes more likely at specific periods he called Szyergy Windows.
That probably isn't the only factor concerning quakes, and even though he never suggested that it was, it does seem to be a factor.
Not everyone's pet or wild animal seems to react to quakes (or volcanic eruptions) a few moments or even days before the events, but many do. Enough that the Chinese have used this as a base for some of their official attempts at earthquake prediction.
Jim Bekland's basic concept was that just as the GRAVITATIONAL pull of the moon affects the ocean tides, it may also affect the earth itself and/or the water in aquifers underneath the earth. He saw, using computers and lots of hard work, that there does seem to be a correlation between the positions of the moon (and the earth) that adds to this pressure making large or significant quakes more likely at specific periods he called Szyergy Windows.
That probably isn't the only factor concerning quakes, and even though he never suggested that it was, it does seem to be a factor.
Not everyone's pet or wild animal seems to react to quakes (or volcanic eruptions) a few moments or even days before the events, but many do. Enough that the Chinese have used this as a base for some of their official attempts at earthquake prediction.
flying screwdriver
Veteran Member
You mention light, and magnetism.
What about gravity?
The Sun has a lot of that too.
And the Moon has it’s own gravity.
So does Earth.
A lot of tugga-tugga going on there. I bet you get fatter on new moon nights too.
But....those new moon days, you float away.
Maybe it’s not that drastic...unless you’re like Peter Griffin with your own gravitational field.
The Pull of the Moon affects your weight
SurfaceTension
Veteran Member
If you roll back through his Twitter posts you can see he's been predicting a strong quake in the San Fran area "in the next 48 hours" for over a year. Like a broken clock, eventually he'll be right.I knew this was coming . . .
The original 98% certainty 48 hour window has now moved to 1/3/22 to 1/5/22.
View: https://twitter.com/Quakeprediction/status/1610291776442535936
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
How does he define a strong quake? One persons strong quake is another persons nothing burger.
homecanner1
Veteran Member
Well I am not an Astrophysics or Geology student so i am not going to attempt a technical discussion on demand to explain in laymen's terms his theory. He was a regular guest on Coast radio until he died in 2016. Terrible loss
Here are his archived appearances, click on the earliest one in 2003, he usually explained his methodology during interviews
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www.coasttocoastam.com
It has to do with increased water weight during the high tides but especially those that occur at key times in earth placement with regard to moon and to the sun during its lunar cycles.
His website was SyzygyJOB, His initials James O Berkland.
Why he called it that:
en.wikipedia.org
"...Syzygy causes the bimonthly phenomena of spring and neap tides. At the new and full moon, the Sun and Moon are in syzygy. Their tidal forces act to reinforce each other, and the ocean both rises higher and falls lower than the average. Conversely, at the first and third quarter, the Sun and Moon are at right angles, their tidal forces counteract each other, and the tidal range is smaller than average. Tidal variations can also be measured in the Earth's crust, and these tidal influences may affect the frequency of earthquakes....'
We began our earthquake sensitives dedicated thread due to his newsletters & predictions and its stll running here.
Here are his archived appearances, click on the earliest one in 2003, he usually explained his methodology during interviews
Coast to Coast AM - Coast Insider
Get news about the weird and bizarre on Coast to Coast AM from radio host George Noory every night!
It has to do with increased water weight during the high tides but especially those that occur at key times in earth placement with regard to moon and to the sun during its lunar cycles.
His website was SyzygyJOB, His initials James O Berkland.
Why he called it that:
Syzygy (astronomy) - Wikipedia
"...Syzygy causes the bimonthly phenomena of spring and neap tides. At the new and full moon, the Sun and Moon are in syzygy. Their tidal forces act to reinforce each other, and the ocean both rises higher and falls lower than the average. Conversely, at the first and third quarter, the Sun and Moon are at right angles, their tidal forces counteract each other, and the tidal range is smaller than average. Tidal variations can also be measured in the Earth's crust, and these tidal influences may affect the frequency of earthquakes....'
We began our earthquake sensitives dedicated thread due to his newsletters & predictions and its stll running here.
West
Senior
Sounds like all of his bullet points are lining up?
Well I am not an Astrophysics or Geology student so i am not going to attempt a technical discussion on demand to explain in laymen's terms his theory. He was a regular guest on Coast radio until he died in 2016. Terrible loss
Here are his archived appearances, click on the earliest one in 2003, he usually explained his methodology during interviews
Coast to Coast AM - Coast Insider
Get news about the weird and bizarre on Coast to Coast AM from radio host George Noory every night!
It has to do with increased water weight during the high tides but especially those that occur at key times in earth placement to the sun during its lunar cycles.
His website was SyzygyJOB, His initials James O Berkland.
Why he called it that:
Syzygy (astronomy) - Wikipedia
We began our earthquake sensitives dedicated thread due to his newsletters & predicitons and its stll running here.
Bob the Builder
Contributing Member
Being a special kind of stupid I respectfully decline to comment further.
I plan to take my flashlight and cat to the closet and shine the light on her until she is so heavy she cannot jump anymore.
flying screwdriver
Veteran Member
I understand.
If only you had a dog.
You could get an old sock and play tugga tugga.
You're the Sun, the dog is the Moon, and the toe of the sock the dog is yanking?
That‘s California.
Bob the Builder
Contributing Member
But I do have a dog. A big rottie. Ate all my socks.
I bet I could get the wife to walk behind her with a light while walking dog. Shine light on dogs ass and dog couldn't pull so hard. Win
In other news: Tesla boat with mylar sail unfurled seen rapidly accelerating away from earth. Chased by energetic light particles.
Space police in hot pursuit with same propulsion unit powered by laser.
Earthquake scientists expect to find both in space basement with too much gravitational mass accrued to continue flight due to absorption of light.
flying screwdriver
Veteran Member
I finished my scientific analysis.
No, honestly I laughed my ass off.
When I had to explain California doom science, moons and suns, gravity, light, tugga-tugga and a flashlight rottie turbo-boost to my wife, she laughed just as hard.
You win.
I think now that the "three feet of glass" comment came from a TV report on the subject, but here's an article I saved from 2018 about why it's not only the Cascadia Subduction Zone that Portland needs to worry about. One takeaway from this article is that the fault under Portland would be worse for the city but the CSZ is far more likely to let go.
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When the 'Big One' hits, Portland faces mass casualties, widespread destruction: Study
by Kale Williams
The Oregonian/OregonLive
March 15, 2018
For the first time in 20 years, Portlanders are getting a detailed look at the damage that will be caused by a catastrophe we all know is coming - a major earthquake striking the metro area - and the prospects are grim.
The assessment comes in a new report (http://www.oregongeology.org/pubs/ofr/p-O-18-02.htm) published Thursday by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and includes some stark numbers. In a worst-case scenario, the metro area could see more than $80 billion in building damage, tens of thousands of people wounded or killed and more than 250,000 people facing long-term displacement.
"The damage estimates are significantly higher than those given in previously published studies for the area," the report states, as it uses better data about the buildings in the metro area, many of which were built using unreinforced masonry. The authors of the report stressed that the document should not be seen as an end-goal, but "as a platform for counties, jurisdictions, and communities to better understand their needs to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a major earthquake."
Dan Douthit, a spokesman for the Portland Bureau of Emergency Management, agreed, saying the report was not intended to scare people, but to reinforce the need to prepare.
"We hope that this report gives people a sense of urgency," he told The Oregonian/OregonLive.
The metro area is home to 44 percent of Oregon's total population and 50 percent of the state's jobs. The 3,076-square-mile study area, which includes Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties, is also home to all of Oregon's major liquid fuel port terminals and the state's largest airport. All of those critical pieces of infrastructure, as well as the 1.6 million people who live in the region, would be affected by a major earthquake.
Not every earthquake is the same, however, and the report laid out a few different scenarios for what could be waiting for Portland and the surrounding area.
Different quakes, different shakes
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'The really big one' earthquake and tsunami explained
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The earthquake that Pacific Northwesterners have long known about and feared is one caused by a rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, the 600-mile-long fault that sits ominously off the west coast, running from Northern California up to Vancouver, B.C.
The subduction zone, and the danger it poses, was cast into stark relief by a Pulitzer prize-winning New Yorker story (The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest) in 2015.
The fault is divided into sections, each of which could produce a moderate quake, but the report is modeled for the so-called "big one," in which the whole fault slips and a massive magnitude 9.0 temblor shakes the entire region.
But the fault buried under the ocean is not the only one that threatens the metro area. The Portland Hills Fault, which runs from Oregon City to Scappoose, sits directly under some of the city's most important infrastructure and densest population centers. While a quake on that fault is less likely than a subduction zone quake, a large temblor on a fault running right through Portland could be far more deadly.
The report produced damage estimates for both a magnitude 9.0 quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and a magnitude 6.8 quake on the Portland Hills Fault. It also accounted for a few other variables as well. An earthquake during the day, when most people are out and about, could be worse than one in the middle of the night. A shaker in winter, when topsoil is likely to be wet and prone to landslides, could be worse than one during dry months.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone
The last time the whole Cascadia Subduction Zone ruptured was January 26, 1700, more than 300 years ago, and at least 40 large-magnitude earthquakes have occurred along the fault in the past 10,000 years. Studying core samples dug up from the ocean floor, seismologists peg the likelihood of a major quake occurring on the whole fault at 10 to 14 percent in the next 50 years.
Those numbers are slightly higher for the central and northern Oregon coast, where experts say the chances of a large quake in the next 50 years are between 15 and 20 percent.
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Risk of major Pacific Northwest quake higher than previously thought
Risk of major Pacific Northwest quake higher than previously thought
The new estimates call for an earthquake along the central Oregon coast about every 350 years. The last one was 316 years ago.
www.oregonlive.com
The impacts such an event would cause on the coast, from landslides to tsunamis, have been well documented, but this report focused solely on the impacts in the metro area.
If a magnitude 9.0 earthquake were to strike along the Cascadia Subduction Zone at 2 a.m., there would be between 4,400 and 10,400 casualties, ranging from minor injuries to fatalities. Between 9 and 14 percent of the buildings in the area, which number more than 600,000, would be lost. Monetary estimates for repairs and rebuilding range from $23 billion to $36 billion.
Up to 85,000 people could be displaced for long periods of time and the quake would produce between roughly 13 and 18 million tons of debris. For context, a Nimitz class aircraft carrier weighs approximately 100,000 tons.
If the quake were to strike during the day, at 2 p.m., things could be much worse.
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What could happen to the Burnside Bridge in an earthquake
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The damage estimates for buildings stay the same, but a daytime temblor would cause between 18,000 and 27,000 casualties, the report said, nearly triple that of a quake in the dead of night. The biggest difference being that, at night, the vast majority of the population is at home sleeping in wood-framed houses, which are less vulnerable to earthquakes.
One of the advances in the most recent report, compared to previous studies, is the ability of researchers to detect which areas are prone to liquefaction, wherein saturated soil behaves more like a liquid than a solid. Vast swaths of Portland's west side, a large stretch of the south bank of the Columbia River and portions of the city's inner east side are all at high risk of liquefaction or landslides, especially if the quake strikes during the wet winter months, the report said.
"Although damage estimates vary widely throughout the study area, no community will be unharmed," the report said.
The Portland Hills Fault
While the Cascadia Subduction Zone has garnered more public attention in recent years, the lesser-known Portland Hills Fault has the potential to cause more damage, according to the report, though it is far less likely to occur.
While the subduction zone has seen some 40 major quakes over the last 10,000 years, the Portland Hills Fault is thought to have only produced two sizable seismic events over the last 15,000 years. Still, due to its location, the fault poses a grave danger to the residents of Portland.
It starts roughly on the northern edge of Forest Park and runs along the foot of Portland's West Hills before turning east on West Burnside Street for a few blocks and then turning southeast again through the heart of downtown. The 30-mile-long fault, which is actually a complex "fault zone" containing multiple fractures, then crosses the Willamette River between the Marquam and Ross Island bridges to Milwaukie and ends about a mile south of the Clackamas River near Oregon City and Gladstone.
"Other active crustal faults exist in the Portland Metropolitan Region, but a rupture on the Portland Hills fault would be the most impactful, given its position directly underneath downtown Portland and the population centers of Clackamas County," the report reads.
If a magnitude 6.8 quake were to strike this fault, 23 to 32 percent of the 615,000 buildings in the study area could be lost with damage estimates ranging from $60 billion to $83 billion. Some 26 to 34 million tons of debris would be created and between 96,000 and 257,000 people would face long-term displacement. If that quake were to strike at 2 a.m., the area would see between 16,000 and 29,000 casualties, again ranging from minor injuries to fatalities. If the earthquake came during the day, that number jumps to between 48,000 and 63,000.
Assuming the lower end of the casualty spectrum, that equates to the entire population of Tigard either injured or dead.
A path forward
The numbers put forward in the report are striking and they come just months after an audit found Oregon to be woefully unprepared for a major earthquake.
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Oregon is unprepared to deal with major earthquake, tsunami, says audit
Oregon is unprepared to deal with major earthquake, tsunami, says audit
Despite years of requests, the Oregon Legislature has not granted requests for funding more full-time emergency preparedness workers, leaving the state with far fewer than other coastal states. Without those people, the Office of Emergency Management runs the risk of losing important federal...
www.oregonlive.com
Still, Douthit stressed some of the damage could be mitigated on a local level.
Unreinforced masonry buildings
The city is home to an estimated 100,000 wood-framed homes that are in need of retrofitting. Another 1,600 structures are built of unreinforced masonry, Douthit said, and are particularly vulnerable to shaking.
"Seismic upgrades to buildings, or replacement of older buildings, can significantly reduce loss and casualties," the report said. One of the recommendations included in the report was to offer incentives to building owners to speed up the retrofitting process.
Beyond costly upgrades to structures, there are a number of ways individuals can prepare for a major earthquake. Having a well-stocked earthquake kit is a good place to start.
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Pack your emergency survival kit for quake, tsunami
Pack your emergency survival kit for quake, tsunami
North Portland resident Ali Ryan demystifies packing an emergency survival kit, drawing on her experience working for Oregon's geology agency.
www.oregonlive.com
The Portland Bureau of Emergency Management has been working to train a cadre of volunteers under the moniker Neighborhood Emergency Teams, or NETs. The idea is to have volunteers on the ground in every corner of the city who can be self-sufficient for up to two weeks after a disaster. The teams are trained to provide assistance to neighbors, help untrained volunteers and, perhaps most importantly, assess and treat those with minor injuries in their immediate area.
That last point will take on special significance in a mass casualty event, Douthit said, as it will keep those with minor injuries from flooding to emergency rooms. Medical facilities are likely to overburdened with serious injuries after a major quake and otherwise hobbled by power loss and emergency transportation routes that could be impassable.
Douthit also pointed to the development of an early warning system for earthquakes, which is still in the testing phase. Though it is still in development, and waiting for the necessary funds for completion, the system has already proven effective.
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Wednesday's quake a valuable demonstration of early warning system
Wednesday's quake a valuable demonstration of early warning system
If the system were fully operational, people in Portland could have gotten a warning 8 seconds before the shaking started.
www.oregonlive.com
"If we had that system in place," Douthit said, "we could get a lot of people to safety that might otherwise be in harm's way."
When 'Big One' hits, Portland faces mass casualties: study
Despite the grim numbers in the report, there are things you can do to prepare.
www.oregonlive.com
No idea, although I imagine quite a few office buildings have glass doors or large windows on the ground level that could be smashed (if they hadn't in the earthquake) to get outside. I understand the concept of people in an emergency crowding against a door that opens inward and not being able to get out, but as you pointed out another possible problem in an emergency is something blocking the outside and the door still wouldn't open. There was a TV show about the guys who went to the Greenland ice sheet to recover a P-38 from WW2 ... they were so clueless about conditions on the ice that their shelters had doors that opened out and the very first snowstorm trapped them inside (fortunately they were able to remove the hinge pins located on the inside and tunnel out).
Old Greek
Veteran Member
Clue us in on the adult beverage you are drinking. I want some!
It looks like we are coming to the end of the modified "signal" window for the big one to hit. This means the big one is probably imminent or someone threw a decimal point, in which a revised "real" doomsday date will be shortly issued. Since I live in the Bay Area between the San Andreas on the west and Hayward fault to the east, it doesn't look good. Even our local critical care hospital was built, modernized and expanded almost on top of the Hayward Fault. Anyone remember LA's Rampart Hospital that was highlighted on the paramedic show Emergency! It was toasted in the 1971 Sylmar quake. I guess Drs. Brackett, Early and Nurse Dixie didn't make it.
With the "signal" predictors of high tide, full moon, minimum distance to the sun, etc. all aligned, according to the experts, life expectancy in the Bay Area will drop dramitically and even Colonial Life has declined coverage for me. We have had over 12 inches of rain at our house since Dec. 1st. which is truly momentous for this area. This is 4 times the average normal and bit of basic math suggests that No. Calf. alone has over 24 billion tons of new water straining the faults lines.
Based upon the different quake predictors noted above and what I read on the internet, along with a two night stay at a Holiday Inn, I will be buying Powerball and MegaMillion lottery tickets to hedge my bet if my house becomes a new artificial reef and I have to evacuate from California.
If the big one does hit, this will probably be my last post ( or TBD). If so, I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the privilege of reading and gathering timely information/news from TB2000 posts for over 20 years. So good luck and fortune to everyone in 2023 and Thanks! for all the Fish!
With the "signal" predictors of high tide, full moon, minimum distance to the sun, etc. all aligned, according to the experts, life expectancy in the Bay Area will drop dramitically and even Colonial Life has declined coverage for me. We have had over 12 inches of rain at our house since Dec. 1st. which is truly momentous for this area. This is 4 times the average normal and bit of basic math suggests that No. Calf. alone has over 24 billion tons of new water straining the faults lines.
Based upon the different quake predictors noted above and what I read on the internet, along with a two night stay at a Holiday Inn, I will be buying Powerball and MegaMillion lottery tickets to hedge my bet if my house becomes a new artificial reef and I have to evacuate from California.
If the big one does hit, this will probably be my last post ( or TBD). If so, I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the privilege of reading and gathering timely information/news from TB2000 posts for over 20 years. So good luck and fortune to everyone in 2023 and Thanks! for all the Fish!
I really don't know why governments do reports on earthquake hazard mitigation. Here in the Pacific Northwest they not so long ago did a comprehensive study in which they adamantly advised against building new emergency service structures in the coastal tsunami zone. So naturally one coastal Oregon town will build their new hospital ... wait for it ... smack dab in the tsunami zone.
Went out to the trailer with cat food. Tried most of the LED replacement lights, Frig, heater and stove, water pump, etc. everything working except the extra 12V battery to run the DVD/TV. Hurting for a while but I will go back out when it kind of stops hurting. Good to know so we can buy a new battery if needed.
Reminds me of my Prophets and Prognosticators thread. Predictions. How much leeway do we give on fairly specific predictions.
An extra few days, weeks, months before it is officially declared a “miss?”
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Well a rather large X Flare just went zinging past the earth, glancing blow I do believe they said it was. The Sumatra quake happened a day after an X Flare glancing blow. The Japan monster quake occured a day or two after an X Flare glancing blow. Ditto this the two big ones in Chile and the big one in New Zealand.
So I'd say give it two more days and then call it a miss.
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Kind of like predicting a girl in a red dress wearing a hat will walk by in five minutes. Except that it turns out to be a dude in shorts riding a bicycle two days later and it was on the other side of town. Eh, close enough, call it a win!
Kewpie
Senior Member
If it’s the same people as quakeprediction.com, it’s Luke Holmquist, and he’s been shady since 2010. He makes a lot of predictions that never come to pass (he scared a lot of people spitless in 2011), and has a history of postdiction. At one point he was faxing the same prediction to different companies every week so when a quake DID happen he could say ‘SEE?!’
Tea leaves are probably more accurate.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
ALERT - M7.7 EQ, 275mi SE of Ambon Indonesia
M7.7 earthquake, 275 miles SE of Ambon, Indonesia (Tanimbar region). AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports and tsunami warnings.
Some sources are saying 7.6 others are saying 7.9
KMR58
Veteran Member
Just got an email alert from Brent Dmitruk who is tracking the Culebra event. Seems he nailed this prediction.ALERT - M7.7 EQ, 275mi SE of Ambon Indonesia
M7.7 earthquake, 275 miles SE of Ambon, Indonesia (Tanimbar region). AlertsUSA monitoring for damage reports and tsunami warnings.www.timebomb2000.com
Some sources are saying 7.6 others are saying 7.9
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Culebra event? Do you have a link?