WAR North Korea Main Thread - All things Korea April 27th - May 4th

[Housecarl]

North Korea Main Thread - All things Korea April 20th - 26th
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-Main-Thread-All-things-Korea-April-20th-26th

NORTH KOREA CARRIES OUT MASSIVE ARTILLERY DRILL
Started by iboya‎, Yesterday 06:20 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?515866-NORTH-KOREA-CARRIES-OUT-MASSIVE-ARTILLERY-DRILL

Entire Senate being called to White House for North Korea briefing
Started by Dennis Olson‎, 04-24-2017 11:29 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...alled-to-White-House-for-North-Korea-briefing

-----

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-usa-idUKKBN17T0BZ

WORLD NEWS | Thu Apr 27, 2017 | 9:33am BST

China welcomes U.S. saying it's open to talks on North Korea

By Michael Martina and Ju-min Park | BEIJING/SEOUL

China on Thursday welcomed an apparently softer tone by the United States on the North Korean nuclear and missile crisis but stressed its opposition to a U.S. missile defence system being deployed in South Korea.

China has long promoted dialogue to resolve the "Korean nuclear issue" as North Korea has repeatedly threatened to destroy the United States which in turn has warned that "all options are on the table" in ending North Korean provocations.

The Trump administration said on Wednesday it aimed to push North Korea into dismantling its nuclear and missile programmes, which are in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, through tougher international sanctions and diplomatic pressure.

"The United States seeks stability and the peaceful denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. We remain open to negotiations towards that goal. However, we remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies," it said in a statement.

Asked about the U.S. comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China had noted that many U.S. officials had recently made such remarks.

"We have noted these expressions, and have noted the message conveyed in these expressions hoping to resolve the Korean nuclear issue peacefully through dialogue and consultation," he said.

"We believe this message is positive and should be affirmed."

South Korea and the United States agreed on Thursday on "swift punitive measures" against North Korea in the event of further provocation. The South also said the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile defence system was moving ahead effectively a day after angry protests against the battery and fierce opposition from China.

South Korea on Wednesday moved parts of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to its deployment site on a golf course about 250 km (155 miles) south of the capital, Seoul, signalling a faster installation of the system.

Several hundred South Korean villagers protested near the site, hurling water bottles at vehicles moving the parts in.

CHINA AGAIN DENOUNCES THAAD

The top U.S. Commander in the Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris, said on Wednesday the THAAD system would be operational "in coming days" bolstering the ability to defend the U.S. ally and the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed there.

A photograph taken of the site showed a THAAD interceptor on the back of a mobile launcher erected and pointed skywards on green lawn as a military transport helicopter hovered nearby.

China says the system's advanced radar can penetrate deep into its territory and undermine its security. It is adamant in its opposition.

"The deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea damages the regional strategic balance and stability. The Chinese side is resolutely opposed to this," Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told reporters.

"China’s military will continue to carry out live-fire military exercises and test new military equipment in order to firmly safeguard national security and regional peace and stability."

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U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats described North Korea on Wednesday as "an urgent national security threat and top foreign policy priority".

The U.S. signal of a willingness to exhaust non-military avenues came as the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group approached Korean waters, where it will join the USS Michigan nuclear submarine.

North Korea, which conducted its biggest ever artillery exercise to mark the 85th anniversary of its military's creation on Tuesday, says it needs to develop weapons to defend itself from U.S. aggression.

A North Korean official speaking on CNN said the country would not be influenced by outside events.

"As long as America continues its hostile acts of aggression, we will never stop nuclear and missile tests," said Sok Chol Won, director of the North's Institute of Human Rights at the Academy of Social Sciences.

Moon Jae-in, the front-runner in South Korea's May 9 presidential election, has called for a delay in THAAD deployment, saying a decision should be made after gathering public opinion and more talks with Washington.

(Additional reporting by Phil Stewart in WASHINGTON and Ben Blanchard in BEIJING; Writing by Jack Kim and Nick Macfie; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/04/2...cific-suggests-missile-defense-in-hawaii.html

North Korea threat: Top admiral calls on more missile interceptors in Hawaii

By Ryan Gaydos Published April 27, 2017 Fox News

Video

A top U.S. commander in the Pacific on Wednesday said he believes Hawaii needs more missile interceptors in response to the growing threat on North Korea and Pyongyang’s capability to launch a rocket.

Adm. Harry Harris told the House Armed Services Committee that Hawaii’s defenses were sufficient for now, but could one day be overwhelmed in an onslaught.

"I don't share your confidence that North Korea is not going to attack either South Korea, or Japan, or the United States ... once they have the capability," Harris said.

He could not comment on the precise capability of the U.S.' defenses, but he said, "I do believe that the numbers could be improved. In other words, we need more interceptors."

Hawaii lawmakers have already been scrambling to come up with emergency plans in event of a North Korean attack. The Hawaii House Public Safety Committee called for the state’s defense agency to repair its hundreds of Cold War-era fallout shelters. They were tasked with restocking them with medical supplies, food and water. The state’s emergency plans have not been updated since the 1980s.

The admiral’s comments came shortly before the Trump administration held a closed-door briefing with senators on North Korea. President Trump's secretary of state, defense secretary, top general and national intelligence director were on hand to lay out the North’s escalating nuclear capabilities.

“Past efforts have failed to halt North Korea's unlawful weapons programs and nuclear and ballistic missile tests,” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said in a joint statement. “With each provocation, North Korea jeopardizes stability in Northeast Asia and poses a growing threat to our allies and the U.S. homeland.”

Click for more from Reuters.

 

[Red Baron]

FWIW. I closed the older thread.

 

[okie-carbine]

well I want to know what all the senators now know. If it was such grave news, we common folk, Americans, deserve the right to know too. If kim can blow us off the face of the earth, that is need to know information. Trump should hold a live tv announcement.

 

[Martinhouse]

C'mon, Okie-carbine, you're kidding, right?

How can you possibly think we common folk "deserve" to know what was discussed in that government meeting? If we all knew, the whole world would know, and then our government might as well not exist.

The common folk have never known what was going to happen beforehand. They find out afterwards. That is the way of countries, particularly during wartime, and it's the only way it can be, no matter how badly we would like to know what's going on.

 

[Housecarl]

FWIW. I closed the older thread.

Thanks Baron, I forgot to ask for that.

 

[Maryh]

I am concerned about Admiral Harris' concern about the defenses for Hawaii mainly because my daughter and hubby will be living there. I wonder if that was some kind of clue that he expects some kind of attack soon. Also with the emergency management wanting to reactive the bomb shelters, it just makes you pause.

 

[evenso]

Did the briefing with the House ever materialize?

 

[Ironskull]

Bump

 

[Housecarl]

Did the briefing with the House ever materialize?

Yes and it was as equally short and thus far as I have been able to find, little info coming from anyone associated with the members of the House, just like the Senators.

 

[Johnny Reb]

Curious the Congress critters are being so quiet

 

[Housecarl]

Curious the Congress critters are being so quiet

That Trump fulfilled the War Powers Act requirements, and that hasn't really been mentioned in the press also is "curious"....

 

[night driver]

well I want to know what all the senators now know. If it was such grave news, we common folk, Americans, deserve the right to know too. If kim can blow us off the face of the earth, that is need to know information. Trump should hold a live tv announcement.

C'mon, Okie-carbine, you're kidding, right?

How can you possibly think we common folk "deserve" to know what was discussed in that government meeting? If we all knew, the whole world would know, and then our government might as well not exist.

The common folk have never known what was going to happen beforehand. They find out afterwards. That is the way of countries, particularly during wartime, and it's the only way it can be, no matter how badly we would like to know what's going on.

Martinhouse actually has this one correct.

SCI information is sensitive and compartmented for a reason. Spreading it around could endanger LOTS of people, PLUS letting the opposition know what you know is pretty dumb.

and given what my bro went through to get his TS-SCI clearance I actually wonder how some of them ijits qualified for that clearance.

 

[night driver]

That Trump fulfilled the War Powers Act requirements, and that hasn't really been mentioned in the press also is "curious"....

We all ASSUMED he did. Haven't seen it confirmed though.

 

[northern watch]

Rumors rife as gas restrictions in North Korean capital drag on

By Eric Talmadge, Associated Press
PYONGYANG, North Korea April 27, 2017, 11:51 AM ET

An acute shortage of gasoline in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang that has sparked price hikes and hoarding is raising fears of potentially crippling pain at the pumps if things don't get better soon and driving rumors that China is to blame.

The shortage, which is extremely unusual if not unprecedented, began last week when signs went up at gas stations around the city informing customers that restrictions on sales would be put in place until further notice. With no indication as of Wednesday night of when the restrictions might be lifted or why they have been imposed drivers continue to scramble to fill up their tanks and whatever other containers they can find.

Prices, meanwhile, have shot up. They had been fairly stable, typically at about 70-80 cents a kilogram, but on Wednesday at least one station was charging $1.40. Gasoline is sold by the kilogram in North Korean filling stations. One kilogram is roughly equivalent to one liter, so a gallon at the station costs about $5.30.

China supplies most of energy-poor North Korea's fuel, and in lieu of official explanations, rumors are rife that Beijing is behind the shortage. The concerns are adding to a tense and uncertain mood on the Korean Peninsula since U.S. President Donald Trump assumed office with repeated calls for Beijing Pyongyang's economic lifeline to get tough on North Korea, which has responded with counterclaims Washington is pushing for a nuclear war.

Though trade between North Korea and China appears to be solid, and possibly even growing, there are indications Beijing has been quietly tightening enforcement of some international sanctions aimed at getting Pyongyang to abandon its development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.

Limiting the oil supply has been openly discussed in Beijing as one option. Whether that is actually happening is unclear.

David von Hippel, a senior associate with the Nautilus Institute who specializes in energy and environmental issues, said supplies of crude oil and oil products would drop markedly without Chinese imports. But he stressed other factors could just as well be involved.

"The shortages and price rises being seen may be due to a combination of factors, including both actual shortages of products, more products being routed to other users specific ministries, key factories, or the military, for example and, or, more product being placed into government storage facilities," he said in an email. "I do not have a sense, at present, of which of these options, and in what combination, is the driver for the price rises and sales restrictions."

But two days after the restrictions were announced, North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency carried an unusually acerbic, and even threatening, editorial denouncing "a country around the DPRK," an obvious if not explicit reference to China. DPRK is short for North Korea's official name the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"The DPRK's nuclear deterrence for self-defense ... is by no means a bargaining chip for getting something," the commentary said, adding that if "the country" keeps applying economic sanctions "while dancing to the tune of someone ... it may be applauded by the enemies of the DPRK but it should get itself ready to face the catastrophic consequences in the relations with the DPRK."

It is unclear whether the gas shortage has affected North Korea's military, state ministries and major projects, all of which get priority access to the state-controlled supply. But the North this month has staged a huge military parade, unveiled a sprawling high-rise residential district and on Tuesday conducted its biggest-ever live-fire air, land and sea military drill. It is also believed to be prepared to conduct what would be its sixth underground nuclear test.

Several chains of gas stations are operated under different state-run enterprises some, for example, are operated by Air Koryo, the national flagship airline and prices can vary.

North Korea gasoline customers usually purchase coupons at a cashier's booth to fill up. Leftover coupons can be used on later visits until their expiration date. A common amount for the coupons is 15 kilograms (19.65 liters or 5.2 U.S. gallons).

The number of North Korean gas stations has grown steadily in recent years, mainly in Pyongyang, provincial capitals and along major highways. Pyongyang traffic has gotten significantly heavier since Kim Jong Un assumed power in late 2011. The greater number of cars, including swelling fleets of taxis, has been seen as an indication of greater economic activity.

Many of the vehicles are used for business purposes, such as transporting people or goods.

"When I last visited in 2005, they were filling up our bus with gas rations from buckets," said Curtis Melvin, a researcher at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University and a contributor to the 38 North website. "Things have definitely changed."

Melvin added that the growth of an actual domestic market for gasoline has made it possible to see when there is a problem, since prices are posted at the gas stations, making trends publicly trackable. There is also less rationing than in the past.

If the apparent shortages are being caused by China, he said, the most likely explanation would be that less fuel is flowing across the border via pipeline.

Such a slowdown or stoppage would have an immediate impact on prices and would take time to compensate for by ships, trucks or trains. The primary place for North Korea pipeline storage tanks in China is in the border city of Dandong. But it was also not clear if North Korean tankers were picking up as much fuel as usual.

http://abcnews.go.com/International...gas-restrictions-korean-capital-drag-47057917

 

[northern watch]

My guess is that The North Korean military is diverting the gas for it's own use.

Take that as a war sign

NW

 

[Night Owl]

I am concerned about Admiral Harris' concern about the defenses for Hawaii mainly because my daughter and hubby will be living there. I wonder if that was some kind of clue that he expects some kind of attack soon. Also with the emergency management wanting to reactive the bomb shelters, it just makes you pause.

Mary,we have defenses in California & Alaska, Hawaii is protected by them & Hawaii has some, but not enough yet. With "Crazy Guy", we have to be more proactive instead of depending on old systems on mainland.

He could hit anywhere if he ever gets the distance mastered, its GPS. I think 30 mile away Seoul, Korea or 650 mile away Japan, or Guam is U.S, that would be would be the easiest to get us going in War w/NK. He can't hit Hawaii yet.

Your daughter & SIL I will keep praying to Mother May they will stay safe.

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

We may be overly focused on missiles.
This statement shows an odd and not, as far as I know, repeated phrasing.
There are ships and boats and subs that are pretty reliable and low tech, that could disrupt Seattle, San Fran, or LA.,
There have been two widely reported but unexplained sub type incidents off the West Coast, one very recently.

So North Korea pops off an H-bomb, the US, et al, blows hell out of them for several days until our high tech stuff goes down for maintenance and resupply, and the North Koreans(Kim) take out at least one West Coast port.
And everyone stops, for diplomatic tea and crumpets, and cuts a deal with whatever government is left.

SS

'Today (6/22/17) the North's foreign ministry said in a statement; "Now that we possess mighty nuclear power to protect ourselves from US nuclear threat, we will respond without the slightest hesitation to full-out war with full-out war and to nuclear war with our style of nuclear strike

http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=9481

 

[Doomer Doug]

North Korea has two orbiting satellites that may contain EMP bombs. North Korean military forces should be viewed in the context of Nazi Waffen SS troops in the last weeks of World War Two. They fought to the death, and then committed suicide in many cases.

Kim Jong has the ability to hurt South Korea, Japan and China very badly. He also has the ability to hurt the USA badly, especially from EMP weapons, sub launched missiles, sleeper cells in CONUS and container nukes, nukes on merchant ships. He also has kept his military at war level and must use them or lose them in a very tight time frame from today.

He is also clinically INSANE in my view based on his psychotic murders multiple times. The assumption he thinks like we do, or will act like we do is raving lunacy. Any attack on North Korea will trigger an SS level final defense of Berlin response mode. Kim Jong will go down hard and is quite willing to destroy his country if he has to.

 

[Bubble Head]

I agree DD that he will go down hard kicking and screaming and killing all he can. That is why we have to strike first and hard. Take them down with as much as we can with what we have. I don't care if we have to daisy cut the entire North of the 38th for 100 kilometers. Put a rod from space on the porkers head right at the beginning. There will be a lot of death but the object will be to make them die not us. That is war and that is what he wants.

 

[Ordinary Girl]

I've been back in and out of the hospital. I keep up as much as I ca, but I have to ask, have things called down in NK?

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

I've been back in and out of the hospital. I keep up as much as I ca, but I have to ask, have things called down in NK?

Maybe.
SS

'
Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 26m26 minutes ago

In @NPR interview Secretary Tillerson says US not seeking collapse of #DPRK regime or accelerated reunification of #Korea peninsula.
1 reply 12 retweets 6 likes
[ETA-this really clarifies US policy.)

But Wait, there's more!!!
' Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA

Jimmy Carter asked by Trump administration not to attempt any rapprochement with #DPRK, reports @Dimi.'
https://twitter.com/W7VOA'

Just damn.
I thought President Carter would ride in and save the world.

 

[minkykat]

It is quiet on the radio tonight.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...r-major-conflict-with-north-korea-p/22059127/
(fair use applies)

Exclusive: Trump says 'major, major' conflict with North Korea possible, but seeks diplomacy
By Stephen J. Adler, Steve Holland and Jeff Mason
Apr 27th 2017 9:13PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute.

"There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely," Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday.

Nonetheless, Trump said he wanted to peacefully resolve a crisis that has bedeviled multiple U.S. presidents, a path that he and his administration are emphasizing by preparing a variety of new economic sanctions while not taking the military option off the table.

"We'd love to solve things diplomatically but it's very difficult," he said.

Trump lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping for Chinese assistance in trying to rein in North Korea. The two leaders met in Florida earlier this month.

"I believe he is trying very hard. He certainly doesn't want to see turmoil and death. He doesn't want to see it. He is a good man. He is a very good man and I got to know him very well.

"With that being said, he loves China and he loves the people of China. I know he would like to be able to do something, perhaps it's possible that he can't," Trump said.

Trump spoke just a day after he and his top national security advisers briefed U.S. lawmakers on the North Korean threat and one day before Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will press the United Nations Security Council on sanctions to further isolate Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programs.

The Trump administration on Wednesday declared North Korea "an urgent national security threat and top foreign policy priority." It said it was focusing on economic and diplomatic pressure, including Chinese cooperation in containing its defiant neighbor and ally, and remained open to negotiations.

U.S. officials said military strikes remained an option but played down the prospect, though the administration has sent an aircraft carrier and a nuclear-powered submarine to the region in a show of force.

Any direct U.S. military action would run the risk of massive North Korean retaliation and huge casualties in Japan and South Korea and among U.S. forces in both countries.

Trump, asked if he considered North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to be rational, said he was operating from the assumption that he is rational. He noted that Kim had taken over his country at an early age.

"He's 27 years old. His father dies, took over a regime. So say what you want but that is not easy, especially at that age.

"I'm not giving him credit or not giving him credit, I'm just saying that's a very hard thing to do. As to whether or not he's rational, I have no opinion on it. I hope he's rational," he said.

Trump, sipping a Coke delivered by an aide after the president ordered it by pressing a button on his desk, appeared to rebuff an overture from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who told Reuters a direct phone call with Trump could take place again after their first conversation in early December angered Beijing.

China considers neighboring Taiwan to be a renegade province.

"My problem is that I have established a very good personal relationship with President Xi," said Trump. "I really feel that he is doing everything in his power to help us with a big situation. So I wouldn't want to be causing difficulty right now for him."

"So I would certainly want to speak to him first."
~~~~~~~~~~~~


Video of some of the audio of the interview on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LcJx_YZnag

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...093a0e-2bac-11e7-b605-33413c691853_story.html
(fair use applies)

In an apparent shift, Tillerson says U.S. willing to hold direct talks with N. Korea
By Anne Gearan April 27 at 9:47 PM

NEW YORK — The Trump administration is willing to bargain directly with North Korea over ending its nuclear weapons program, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Thursday, an apparent shift in policy aimed at strengthening international resolve against what the Trump administration considers a growing menace.

“Obviously, that will be the way we would like to solve this,” Tillerson said in an interview with NPR scheduled to air Friday, when the United States is convening an unusual high-level meeting at the United Nations devoted to the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

“But North Korea has to decide they’re ready to talk to us about the right agenda, and the right agenda is not simply stopping where they are for a few more months or a few more years and then resuming things. That’s been the agenda for the last 20 years.”

It is not fully clear what that means, but in the NPR interview and another Thursday with Fox News, Tillerson began to sketch a diplomatic approach for the new administration that focuses on international pressure and leveraging China’s economic power over its impoverished ally.

The U.N. Security Council session Friday comes at a particularly tense time in relations between North Korea and the United States, with the Trump administration sending warships to the region in a show of force against Kim Jong Un’s regime.

This week, North Korea conducted large-scale artillery drills, showing off conventional weaponry that can easily reach South Korea’s capital, Seoul, the center of a metropolitan region that is home to about 25 million people.

The Trump administration has said that military action to head off further North Korean nuclear weapons development is not out of the question, but it remains unlikely. A goal of future U.N. diplomacy could be to draw lines for when escalation by North Korea would justify retaliatory action by the United States or others, diplomats and arms control experts said.

At issue is the simultaneous effort in North Korea to perfect a nuclear warhead that could be delivered far from its shores and to develop missiles with a range long enough to be a threat to the United States. Undeterred, North Korea could have that capability within a few years — likely during President Trump’s first term in office. North Korea already possesses missiles able to threaten U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, as well as other Asian neighbors.

“We entered office confronted with a very serious threat from North Korea. We knew that coming in, and the president gave that immediate attention,” Tillerson said in the Fox interview. “Tensions are running a bit high right now. We expected they would. In our approach to addressing this issue, we know there’s going to be risk involved.”

A North Korean propaganda outlet released a video clip on Thursday showing a simulated attack on the White House and declaring that “the enemy to be destroyed is in our sights.”

In setting terms for direct talks — that they be directed at getting rid of North Korea’s nuclear weapons entirely, rather than freezing the program in exchange for economic benefits — Tillerson said the Trump administration is taking a tougher line than in past efforts by both Democratic and Republican administrations.

He also suggested that China’s views are helping shape the U.S. policy. Earlier in the new Trump administration, Tillerson and other officials had sounded skeptical that talks could be productive, although Tillerson did not rule them out.

The last round of direct talks, initiated in 2003 and involving the United States, China and other nations, produced no rollback of the North Korean program. Last month, during his first trip to South Korea, Japan and China, Tillerson declared that the “era of strategic patience” that included those talks was over, and that “all options” were now on the table.

“I first spoke to the Chinese on my first trip to Beijing to make clear to them that we were unwilling to negotiate our way to the negotiating table,” Tillerson said in the Fox News interview. “And I think that’s the mistakes of the past,” he added. “The regime in North Korea has to position itself in a different place in order for us to be willing to engage in talks.”

Trump has been urging China to apply pressure on North Korea and has warned that his administration will act if Beijing does not.

China supports talks and has long argued that although it also wants to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons, it cannot persuade North Korea to give them up without direct assurances from the United States.

Tillerson offered some Thursday, telling Fox that the United States is not seeking “regime change” to topple the family dynasty of Kim Jong Un, or an “excuse” for the reunification of U.S. ally South Korea with its communist neighbor on the Korean Peninsula.

“The regime in the past has indicated the reason they pursue nuclear weapons is they feel that is the only way to ensure their survival as a regime. We want to change that view of theirs,” Tillerson said. “And we have said to them that your pathway to survival and security is to eliminate your nuclear weapons, and we and other countries will be prepared to help you on a pathway of economic development.”

Friday’s session at the U.N. Security Council is intended to send a warning signal to North Korea that the United States is not alone in assessing that the nuclear weapons threat from Pyongyang has reached a crisis point, diplomats said.

Tillerson is expected to appeal for more vigorous enforcement of international economic sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs and raise the prospect of additional economic and diplomatic punishment in response to any further provocations.

“We’re going to be discussing what next steps may be necessary to increase the pressure on the regime at Pyongyang to have them reconsider their current posture,” Tillerson said in the Fox interview.

The Trump administration is also threatening other action, with or without wide international backing, but the thrust of Friday’s session is to show that even China, the source of 90 percent of North Korea’s trade, has had enough, U.S. and other diplomats said.

Although the council is not voting on new sanctions or other measures Friday, the Trump administration hopes for a show of force with the entire council, including China, Russia, and the United States, coming together to air concerns about North Korea’s behavior.

Showing a willingness to hold talks with North Korea could help the United States get that unified front, but Washington risks alienating other Security Council members if it tries to set terms other countries would see as unrealistic.

“Until and unless the United States shows a willingness to engage in at least ‘talks about talks’ with North Korea, it is very unlikely they will agree to support new sanctions against North Korea,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “If Trump and his team insist on a North Korean commitment to ‘denuclearization’ before talks can begin, other members of [the] council will see the U.S. call for ‘engagement’ as unserious and will not support new . . . sanctions.”

The meeting, which Tillerson will chair, caps the month-long U.S. leadership of the Security Council. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley frequently used the rotating council presidency in April to highlight the North Korean threat.

Trump convened members of Congress on Wednesday to brief them on what the White House called the “very grave threat” posed by Pyongyang.

One of the U.S. Navy’s largest submarines, the USS Michigan, which carries Tomahawk cruise missiles, docked in the South Korean port of Busan this week. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, along with the destroyers and cruiser that make up its strike group, will arrive in the Korean Peninsula area this weekend.

U.S. officials said the Pentagon is developing military options after having directed the Carl Vinson strike group toward the Korean Peninsula.

~~~~~~~

video of an interview between Secy of State Tillerson and Brett Baier from tonight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26tCFoVOZZ4

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

McCain on CBS This Morning this morning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niemaC13cno

More:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/04/28/0401000000AEN20170428000300315.html
(fair use applies)

McCain: No indication of military action against N.K. during White House briefing
2017/04/28 02:11
By Chang Jae-soon

WASHINGTON, April 27 (Yonhap) -- A rare White House briefing on North Korea for the entire Senate this week gave no indication that U.S. military action against the communist nation was imminent, Sen. John McCain said Thursday.

The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said on CBS "This Morning," however, that a military option shouldn't be taken off the table as a last resort that can be used when a North Korean nuclear missile launch was impending.

"No," McCain said when asked if there was any indication of imminent military action against the North during Wednesday's White House briefing. "But it is clear and I totally agree that that option can't be taken off the table, but it has to be the absolute last option," he said.

"When I say last option, that is when we're convinced that North Korea has that capability to launch a missile that could strike with a nuclear weapon the west coast of the United States," he said, adding that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "is not a person that we can depend on to act in a rational fashion."

McCain also said a "red line" could be when a nuclear-tipped missile is on the launch pad.

"I don't think we could wait till launch. We do have defensive capabilities that can intercept missiles, but to count on that alone I think would be very risky business," he said.

McCain also warned that military action could result in North Korean retaliatory strikes that can devastate Seoul.

"That's why a lot of the emphasis has got to be on the only power that can restrain them and that's China," he said. "The Chinese cut back on coal supplies, but I was not encouraged when the Chinese came against our air defense system being emplaced in South Korea. The Chinese have to really be made aware that this could have a profound effect on our relations with China."

He was referring to Beijing's opposition to the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile defense system in the South. China has long claimed the system could be used against it despite repeated assurances that it is a purely defensive system designed only to counter North Korean threats.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-warned-north-korea-sanctions-nuclear-test-tillerson-031823101.html

U.S. says 'major conflict' with North Korea possible, China warns of danger of escalation

By Steve Holland and David Brunnstrom
Reuters
April 28, 2017

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said a "major, major conflict" with North Korea was possible over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, while China said the situation on the Korean peninsula could escalate or slip out of control.

Trump, speaking to Reuters on Thursday, said he wanted to resolve the crisis peacefully, possibly through the use of new economic sanctions, although a military option was not off the table.

"There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea," Trump said in an interview at the Oval Office.

"We'd love to solve things diplomatically but it's very difficult," he said, describing North Korea as his biggest global challenge.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said there was a danger that the situation on the Korean peninsula could escalate or slip out of control, his ministry said.

Wang made the comments in a meeting at the United Nations with a Russian diplomat on Thursday, the ministry said in a statement.

China, the only major ally of North Korea, has been increasingly uncomfortable in recent months about its neighbour's pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles in violation on U.N. resolutions.

The United States has called on China to do more to rein in Pyongyang and Trump lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping for his efforts, calling him "a good man".

"I believe he is trying very hard. I know he would like to be able to do something. Perhaps it's possible that he can't. But I think he'd like to be able to do something," Trump said.

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday that China had asked North Korea not to conduct any more nuclear tests. Beijing had warned Pyongyang it would impose unilateral sanctions if it went ahead, he added.

"We were told by the Chinese that they informed the regime that if they did conduct further nuclear tests, China would be taking sanctions actions on their own," Tillerson said on Fox News, without specifying what sanctions he was referring to.

Tillerson did not say when China made the threat and there was no immediate confirmation from Beijing. He is due to chair a meeting with U.N Security Council foreign ministers on Friday, where he said he would stress the need for members to fully implement existing sanctions as well as possible next steps.

China banned imports of North Korean coal in February, cutting off its most important export, and Chinese media this month raised the possibility of restricting oil shipments to the North if it unleashed more provocations.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, asked on whether Friday's UN meeting should discuss new sanctions, told a regular press briefing in Beijing the issue was complex and tense and dialogue was the way forward.

"If the meeting only focuses on increasing sanctions and pressure, I think this will not only lose a rare opportunity, it may also exacerbate the confrontation between all sides and may damage efforts to promote peace and talks," he said.

MISSILE DEFENCE, CARRIER GROUP

In a show of force, the United States is sending the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group to waters off the Korean peninsula, where it will join the USS Michigan, a nuclear submarine that docked in South Korea on Tuesday. South Korea's navy has said it will hold drills with the U.S. strike group.

Admiral Harry Harris, the top U.S. commander in the Pacific, said on Wednesday the carrier was in the Philippine Sea, within two hours' striking distance of North Korea if needs be.

Harris also said a U.S. missile defence system being deployed in South Korea to ward off any North Korean attack would be operational in coming days.

China has been angered by the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), complaining that its radar can see deep into China and undermines its security.

Trump said in the interview he wants South Korea to pay the cost of the THAAD, which he estimated at $1 billion. South Korea, one of Washington's most crucial allies in the region, said the United States would have to bear the cost, pointing to possible friction ahead.

Trump's remarks came as South Korea heads into a presidential poll that will likely elect liberal frontrunner Moon Jae-in, who has said the next administration in Seoul should have the final say on THAAD.

Trump has vowed to prevent North Korea from being able to hit the United States with a nuclear missile, a capability experts say Pyongyang could have some time after 2020.

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests and numerous missile tests, including one this month, a day before a summit between Trump and Xi in Florida.

North Korea, technically still at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a treaty, regularly threatens to destroy the United States and says it will pursue its nuclear and missile programmes to counter perceived U.S. aggression.

"Trump is recklessly resorting to the hackneyed methods, being utterly ignorant of the DPRK," the North's KCNA state news agency said on Friday, citing a commentary from the Rodong Sinmun newspaper and referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"Unshakable is the faith and will of the army and people of the DPRK to build a socialist power ... and no force can check their advance."

Trump, asked if he considered North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to be rational, said he was operating from the assumption that he is rational. He noted that Kim had taken over his country at an early age.

In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin and visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called on North Korea and other countries on Thursday to avoid behaviour or rhetoric that could increase tension.

Foreign ministers of the Association of South East Asian Nations, meeting in the Philippines, called for dialogue and urged "all parties concerned" to exercise self-restraint.

(Additional reporting by Phil Stewart, Matt Spetalnick, Eric Beech and Patricia Zengerle in Washington, Denis Pinchuk and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow, Ben Blanchard and Vincent Lee in Beijing, Manuel Mogato in Manila and Ju-min Park in Seoul; Writing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Nick Macfie; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

[Lilbitsnana]

RT‏Verified account @RT_com 2h2 hours ago

Pyongyang seeks ASEAN’s help to avert ‘nuclear holocaust’ as #Trump warns of ‘major conflict’ https://on.rt.com/8a5i


posted for fair use

Pyongyang seeks ASEAN’s help to avert ‘nuclear holocaust’ as Trump warns of ‘major conflict’

Published time: 28 Apr, 2017 03:34
Edited time: 28 Apr, 2017 05:32

North Korea is seeking support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to prevent a potential “nuclear holocaust,” as US President Donald Trump warns of the possibility of a “major conflict” in the Korean Peninsula if diplomacy fails.

Washington’s actions and rhetoric are pushing the region to the “brink of war,” North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho wrote in a letter to ASEAN’s chief Le Luong Minh from Vietnam.

“As you know, due to the annual war games in South Korea conducted by the United States and South Korea, the situation in the Korean Peninsula is out of control,” the letter, seen by AFP and dated April 23 reads.

“It is a fact clear to everyone that when they deploy the means of nuclear strike that can drive the Korean Peninsula into a nuclear holocaust in just seconds... the nature of such exercises can in no way be defensive.”

Pyongyang penned the letter just ahead of the 30th Asean Summit taking place in Manila on April 26-28 in which it also justified its effort to develop its own nuclear arsenal as the only means of a deterrent against the United States.

North Korea’s chief diplomat urged the ASEAN chief to inform the 10-nation organization's foreign ministers “about the grave situation” and to develop a “proper proposal” on how to preserve peace on the Peninsula.

“I express my expectations that ASEAN which attaches great importance to the regional peace and stability will make an issue of the US-South Korean joint military exercises at ASEAN conferences from the fair position and play an active role in safeguarding the peace and safety of Korean Peninsula,” Ri Yong-ho wrote.

This is not the first time that Pyongyang has sent a letter to the 10-member regional body of which North Korea is not a member. The official North Korean news agency, KCNA, reported that its foreign ministry sent a dispatch to the ASEAN Secretariat on April 4, in which they also addressed the issue of the war games being conducted by the US and South Korea.

The North Korean plea to ASEAN comes amid escalating tensions in the region. Just this week, the South Korean and US militaries held a combined firing drill in Pocheon featuring dozens of tanks and fighter jets. The military exercises came only a day after North Korea held its own firing maneuvers in Wonsan.

The US has meanwhile launched its Minuteman III ICBM to demonstrate its “nuclear capabilities.” In addition, a US nuclear submarine armed with guided missiles made a port call in South Korea on Tuesday, while a carrier strike group led by the USS Carl Vinson approached the potential conflict theater.

On Friday, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the US plans to continue deploying its "strategic" weapons to the country, Yonhap reports.

The two sides agreed to push for "measures available in all aspects including the regular deployment of US strategic assets," the ministry said commenting on the two-day Korea-US Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) meeting held in Washington DC.

While the US continues to pursue ‘peace’ through boosting its military force in the region, China and Russia are urging for a diplomatic solution.

Beijing is trying to pressure North Korea not to conduct a sixth nuclear test which many believe could spark retaliatory action from Washington, similar to the one seen in Syria, when Trump ordered a strike on a Syrian air base in retaliation to an alleged sarin gas attack in Idlib.

On Thursday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China agreed to impose unilateral sanctions should Pyongyang carry out another nuclear test.

“And in fact we were told by the Chinese that they informed the regime that if they did conduct further nuclear tests, China would be taking sanctions actions on their own,” Tillerson told Fox News without elaborating.

In February, China banned coal imports from its neighbor and raised the possibility of restricting oil shipments to the North.

“We’re going to be discussing what next steps may be necessary to increase the pressure on the regime,” Tillerson added. “We do not seek regime change in North Korea. What we are seeking is the same thing China has said they seek – a full denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”


Donald Trump meanwhile told Reuters that there is “chance” of a major conflict in the region.

“There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely,” Trump told Reuters. “We'd love to solve things diplomatically but it's very difficult.”

Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe advocated a diplomatic solution to the Korean crisis.

“We call on all states involved in the region’s affairs to refrain from military rhetoric and seek peaceful, constructive dialogue,” Putin said after meeting Abe at the Kremlin.

A day earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, insisted that the six party talks should be revived.

“There is a mechanism, six-party talks, and the question is not for Russia. The question should go to the United States (as to) why they have rejected this mechanism of improving the situation in the Korean Peninsula,” Zakharova told Yahoo news.

“We should use all the diplomatic efforts and all the possibilities of international law which we have on the table,” Zakharova added.

The six-party talks involving North and South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia collapsed in 2008 following a rocket launch by North Korea. The multilateral negotiations were aimed at achieving a complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.





posted for fair use

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/28/0200000000AEN20170428010100315.html

ASEAN's top diplomats voice 'grave' concerns about N.K. nuke, missile programs

2017/04/28 17:28


SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats from Southeast Asian countries on Friday expressed "grave" concerns over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, strongly urging Pyongyang to comply with relevant U.N. resolutions, a statement showed.

Foreign ministers of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued the statement ahead of the ASEAN leaders' annual summit in Manila slated for Saturday.

"ASEAN is mindful that instability in the Korean Peninsula seriously impacts the region and beyond," it showed.

They also strongly called on North Korea to fully comply with its obligations under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and international laws for peace and security.

Tensions have flared up on the Korean Peninsula amid concerns about the United States' possible military action against Pyongyang to counter the North's nuclear and missile threats.

North Korea has vowed to respond to what it called Washington's war aggression with pre-emptive nuclear attacks.

The ASEAN foreign ministers also urged North Korea and all parties concerned to "exercise self-restraint" in terms of any action that may aggravate the situation on the divided peninsula, the statement read.

ASEAN "calls for the resumption of dialogue on the Korean Peninsula to defuse tension and create conditions conducive to peace and stability," it added.

The statement is seen as spurning North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho's latest move to solicit help from ASEAN.

Ri sent a letter to the secretary general of ASEAN to enlist support in early April, claiming that joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington raised tensions.

Trump aims to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear and missile programs through economic sanctions and diplomatic measures while remaining open to negotiations, according to a joint statement by top U.S. officials on Wednesday.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Lilbitsnana]

posted for fair use
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/04/28/33/0401000000AEN20170428004151315F.html

(LEAD) U.S. seeks regular deployment of strategic military assets in Korea

2017/04/28 15:43

(ATTN: UPDATES with joint statement in paras 2-9; ADDS photo)

SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- The United States plans to deploy its "strategic" weapons in South Korea on a regular basis in order to thwart North Korea's threats under an agreement between the allies, according to a joint statement.

The two sides agreed to explore the "full range of available options, including strengthening the regular deployment of U.S. strategic assets, to bolster the alliance's ability to deter and, where necessary, respond to North Korean nuclear, weapons of mass destruction, and ballistic missile use," they said in the press statement.

It summarized the outcome of the two-day Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) meeting held in Washington D.C.

Around 28,500 American troops are stationed in South Korea. U.S. strategic assets refer to high-profile weapons usually from its bases in Guam, Japan or the mainland, such as B-2, B-1B and B-52 bombers as well as F-35 fighter jets and aircraft carriers.

The allies also highlighted the importance of deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the peninsula as a "purely defensive measure focused solely on North Korea," read the statement.

They took a swipe apparently at China, which strongly opposes the presence of the advanced missile defense system near its soil.

The two sides shared the view that "pressure on or retaliation against the ROK in response to this decision is unreasonable and inappropriate and should be stopped immediately," it added.

They also urged concerned parties to actively address the "root cause" that makes the deployment of THAAD in Korea necessary, apparently referring to the North's continued nuclear and missile programs.

The U.S. Forces Korea has already installed key components of the THAAD system at the deployment site in the southeastern town of Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province. Defense officials said it would soon be operational.

South Korea's delegation to the KIDD was headed by Wee Seung-ho, deputy minister for policy, and his American counterpart was David F. Helvey, assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs.

Launched in 2011, the biannual session is a comprehensive defense meeting between the allies.

lcd@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Medical Maven]

Let 'er rip time appears to be fast approaching. And it may not be intended. Just one misperception or overt mistake by either side will set off the conflagration, (just like the Cuban Missile Crisis). And it was a outright miracle that the conflagration did not happen then, (and it very nearly did, so so close).

Great coverage! Thanks to all who contributed overnight.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

posted for fair use and discussion

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2017/04/28/0301000000AEN20170428004751315.html

Trump says he wants S. Korea to pay cost of US$1 bln THAAD deployment: report

2017/04/28 12:17

SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Donald Trump said he wants South Korea to pay for the US$1 billion deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, a missile defense system the allies are currently fielding here, he said in an interview with Reuters reported on Friday.

Trump also said he will "renegotiate or terminate" the U.S. free trade agreement with South Korea.

Trump's remarks were reported after key elements of THAAD, the high-profile X-band radar and mobile launchers, were delivered to the host site in the southern Seongju county on Wednesday as the deployment gathered pace.

The deployment is a major topic of discussion for the ongoing presidential race here, with front-runner Moon Jae-in pledging to review the installation if he wins the presidency.

"I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid. It's a billion-dollar system," Reuters quoted Trump as saying.

According to the interview, Trump questioned why the U.S. was paying for the THAAD system to defend against a potential missile attack from North Korea.

Trump also called the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement "horrible."

"It is unacceptable, it is a horrible deal made by Hillary," Trump said, putting the blame on his former presidential rival Hillary Clinton. "It's a horrible deal, and we are going to renegotiate that deal or terminate it."

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Michael111]

SOUTH KOREA AND USA TO MAINTAIN A STATE OF FULL COMBAT READINESS ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA

 

[Oreally]

its going to take a real miracle to get us out of this without SOMETHING or SOMEONE screwing up or breaking,and that triggering all out hell.

tension can't go on. too expensive . . . resolution or war, two weeks max.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

This is 11-1/2 hours old, but I didn't see it already posted in a quick scroll up.


posted for fair use
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/04/28/29/0401000000AEN20170428003300315F.html

S.Korean, U.S. military chiefs reaffirm full defense posture against N. Korea

2017/04/28 10:27


SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- The top military officers of South Korea and the United States agreed Friday to maintain full combat readiness based on the strong alliance against North Korean threats, defense authorities here said.

In a 35 minute telephone conversation with Marine Corps Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), his South Korean counterpart Army Gen. Lee Sun-jin stressed that the North's nuclear and missile development can never be tolerated, according to Lee's office.

He also emphasized the need for deterring the communist neighbor from taking provocative acts through their "ironclad combined defense posture."

Lee cited the deployment of the USS Michigan guided-missile submarine in the waters of South Korea and joint naval drills between the allies.

The two sides' navies staged a joint live-fire drill near the western sea border between the two Koreas earlier this week.

Another major exercise is expected as early as next week involving the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier reportedly on its way to Korea.

"It demonstrates how solid the South Korea-U.S. alliance and their joint defense posture are," Lee was quoted as saying.

The U.S. JCS chief agreed that the allies' joint drills would send a strong warning message to the North's leader Kim Jong-un.

Dunford told Lee that the U.S. remains committed to the defense of South Korea and will also continue efforts to press North Korea, according to South Korea's JCS.

It was the third round of phone consultations between Lee and Dunford this year, serving as another occasion to reaffirm their resolve to a stronger alliance, it added.

lcd@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Lilbitsnana]

posted for fair use
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/04/28/0401000000AEN20170428000400315.html

U.S. could raise need for closing N.K. diplomatic missions during U.N. Security Council meeting

2017/04/28 04:27


WASHINGTON, April 27 (Yonhap) -- The United States plans to raise the need for diplomatic isolation of North Korea, including shutting down diplomatic missions around the world, when it hosts a special U.N. Security Council meeting later this week, an official said.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is scheduled to chair the special ministerial meeting of the Security Council on Friday to discuss North Korea in an effort to drum up international support for its push to increase pressure on North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs.

"With respect to Friday, that is, obviously, geared towards speaking to other members of the Security Council, frankly, about our conviction that we need to apply greater pressure on North Korea to get it to comply to international concerns," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said at a press briefing Wednesday.

"There are a number of options, and I feel like a broken record on this, but one of them is sanctions, but there are other pressure points. Isolation, diplomatic isolation being another one," he said.

Asked if diplomatic isolation includes "closing missions around the world," Toner said, "Yes."

"This is an idea that's been around for some time. I think again, I'm not going to announce that he's going to come out and ask other countries to do it but I do think it's one of the options that is seriously being considered," he said.

Maximizing pressure on North Korea "through economic sanctions and diplomatic measures" is the main point of the new North Korea policy that the administration of President Donald Trump has come up with.

Last September, the U.S. asked countries around the world to "downgrade or sever" diplomatic and economic relations with North Korea after the communist nation defiantly carried out its fifth nuclear test earlier that month.

jschang@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Illini Warrior]

any negotiating with Little Fat Boy is a waste of time - he'll agree to anything to gain time - he's close to his goal of having production models of both ballistic missiles and nukes ....

give NK a more time and the lame threats will start to have more teeth - it's already decades toooooo late - Litle Fat Boy's father should have been stopped - rogue countries like NK can't be allowed to exist with weapons of mass destruction ....

 

[Michael111]

its going to take a real miracle to get us out of this without SOMETHING or SOMEONE screwing up or breaking,and that triggering all out hell.

tension can't go on. too expensive . . . resolution or war, two weeks max.

Absolutely!

 

[Zahra]

Interesting article from Stratfor that goes into the complexity of the situation: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/china-solution-north-korean-problem?utm_campaign=LL_Content_Digest&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=51283761&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--eOzk5U_wdMre3M-J81GqRDylzbK7OQ4WDEVHceJBUdcKSXkP9Xwics-f1CmGv0otJ7YGtz8O12WexNNckKFc4___jLw&_hsmi=51283839
(Fair use applies)

Is China the Solution to the North Korean Problem?

Summary

As diplomacy breaks down on the Korean Peninsula, all eyes are fixed on a pair of events that stand to either worsen or ease the tension mounting between the United States and North Korea. On April 25, North Korea celebrated the 85th anniversary of its military's establishment, an occasion that has been accompanied by missile tests in the past and that now comes as expectations of a sixth nuclear test by Pyongyang rise. Then, three days after the North Korean military's birthday, the U.N. Security Council will convene to discuss the country's persistent march toward a demonstrable long-range nuclear weapons capability. And as the threat emanating from North Korea grows, Washington will be more and more likely to use the summit to call for heavier sanctions against its belligerent adversary.

Based on the completed review of Washington's North Korea policy, the U.S. administration has no plan to respond to Pyongyang's next nuclear test with military might. But U.S. President Donald Trump has taken every opportunity to show that he still considers all options — including a military strike — to be on the table.

This won't, however, do much to change North Korea's own calculations. Pyongyang no longer sees its nuclear weapons program as a chip to be bargained away for economic and security concessions from Washington. Instead, developing a credible nuclear deterrent has become a matter of national security, and a crucial one at that. North Korea will forge ahead with its nuclear program undeterred, bringing it one step closer to its final stage — and bringing the country closer to a clash with regional powers intent on stopping it.

In this, at least, the United States and China have found a common goal. But as the two embattled administrations have discovered, the mutual need to rein in North Korea can be as much a divisive force as a uniting one.

Sanction, or Be Sanctioned

The United States has both dangled carrots and brandished sticks in trying to secure China's cooperation on North Korea. On one hand, Washington has begun to soften its tone on trade issues causing contention with Beijing in an apparent show of goodwill. On the other, the White House hasn't been shy about issuing a clear ultimatum: Work with us to press North Korea into abandoning its nuclear program or suffer the consequences when we act alone. (This would likely take the form of secondary sanctions against China or a buildup of missile defenses in the region, each of which would create headaches in Beijing.) Washington's message hasn't fallen on deaf ears; China has already taken clear steps to cut down on cross-border trade, particularly in coal, and limit financial transactions with its unruly neighbor. Beijing has vowed to ensure that oil supplies flowing into North Korea will dry up if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test.

Despite their seeming alignment, though, the United States and China have widely diverging objectives on the Korean Peninsula. By putting pressure on Pyongyang, Beijing is seeking to preempt a unilateral intervention by Washington, boost the remote prospects of Chinese-led negotiations and hedge against future trade friction with the United States — but not to sever North Korea's economic lifelines. Washington, however, has made it clear that dialogue with Pyongyang will arise only if its purpose is to dismantle the North's nuclear program. To that end, the United States relies on China's economic leverage against North Korea as a primary means of altering Pyongyang's behavior.

Washington's decision to enlist Beijing against its neighbor and ally makes a good deal of sense. After all, China is North Korea's primary source of economic support, which means its participation in any sanctions against Pyongyang is critical to their success. Washington has long seen Beijing's lax enforcement of sanctions and exploitation of loopholes in previous sanctions regimes, as well as the access many Chinese banks and businesses maintain across the border, as acts of complicity in North Korean misdeeds.

Same Goal, Different Motives

It isn't clear precisely what actions the United States will take against North Korea (whether unilaterally or through the United Nations), or by extension, what it will demand China do. That said, those demands will likely fall into two broad categories: stricter enforcement of U.N. Security Council trade resolutions, and the prevention of cross-border financial transactions and illegal arms smuggling.

No doubt, neither strategy will be easy to execute. For one, the U.N. resolutions banning imports of North Korean coal, copper, iron ore and fuel supplies make exceptions for "humanitarian purposes." Pyongyang has made liberal use of this loophole to skirt the sanctions and continue sending its commodities to countries such as Russia. For another, slapping secondary sanctions on China to ensure better compliance with sanctions regimes will likely have a minimal effect on the Chinese companies doing business with their North Korean counterparts, since they have little exposure to the U.S. financial system. The move, moreover, could risk backlash from Beijing if major Chinese banks are caught up in the sanctions net.

Given its desire to avoid antagonizing the United States, China may well be willing to more closely enforce existing sanctions — and comply with new ones — anyway. Yet even then, Beijing will only cooperate to the extent that it does not jeopardize the North Korean economy's survival in the process. China would almost certainly view a complete cutoff in Pyongyang's access to oil, food or international aid as a bridge too far, and a measure that would fly in the face of Beijing's own imperative to maintain stable buffer states on its borders. This need explains why, despite China's rising frustration with North Korea over the past few years, trade between the two has continued. (Even under the recent ban on coal imports, Beijing's purchases of North Korean iron and other minerals have climbed sharply to compensate for the cutbacks.)

One of the greatest challenges to adding sanctions against North Korea, then, will be the difference in Washington and Beijing's estimates of just how much pressure China can apply before North Korea collapses or lashes out. Of course, this also gives rise to a bigger question: Given the North Korean government's resilience, would new sanctions even be enough to persuade Pyongyang to set aside its nuclear program? Decades of sanctions have hiked up the costs of developing its arsenal, to be sure, but they haven't managed to halt or even slow its progress. There is also always the risk that exacerbating North Korea's economic problems would push Pyongyang away from its only ally — Beijing — and toward tactics of last resort.

Beijing's Bottom Line

That the United States has once again turned to China to solve its North Korean problem speaks to its lack of viable alternatives. But Beijing's choices for dealing with the pariah state are no less constrained. For decades, China has based its North Korea policy on several, often contradictory, goals: to ensure the existence of a pliable and stable buffer state on its doorstep; to keep the United States from expanding its security role in Northeast Asia; and to block the re-emergence of a unified peninsula.

So, China's historical tolerance toward Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions is hardly surprising. From Beijing's perspective, the controversial program has been a necessary means of safeguarding the North Korean government's grip on power and preventing a security vacuum that might invite U.S. interference. But as the prospect of a nuclear North Korea has shifted from a distant possibility to an impending threat, China has had to come to terms with a number of new and uncomfortable realities. South Korea, Japan and possibly Taiwan are eager to build a regional ballistic missile defense system led by the United States, perhaps even someday seeking nuclear weapons programs of their own. Meanwhile, as China has found itself less able to restrain the recalcitrant government in Pyongyang, the threat of military conflict on its border — or negotiations with Washington that exclude Beijing — has grown.

Faced with its own constraints and challenges, China will have to decide whether its long-standing strategy on North Korea is sustainable, and whether it is willing to accept another nuclear power in its backyard. Beijing is not without options; it could throw its full weight behind either Washington or Pyongyang, or do neither and preserve the status quo. But each path is riddled with potential pitfalls, and the time to choose one of them is running out.

The Least-Bad Option

Finding a diplomatic solution to the North Korean problem continues to be China's best bet. Under ideal circumstances, Pyongyang would agree to suspend its nuclear program and join Beijing in bilateral or multilateral negotiations. China hasn't given up on this outcome just yet: It has repeatedly called for the resumption of stalled peace talks. But with North Korea showing no interest in trading away its nuclear program, and the United States refusing to engage in negotiations without it, the likelihood of Beijing striking its grand bargain is low at this point.

Other avenues toward North Korean denuclearization would present even greater perils than those China currently faces. Intense debates are underway within Chinese policy circles to determine Beijing's choices for addressing Pyongyang's nuclear program, giving rise to proposals from offering North Korea a security guarantee to supporting a decapitation strike against the government of Kim Jong Un. The former, a substantial reversal of Beijing's long-held policy of non-interference abroad, would not sway Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear project, while the latter would scarcely appeal to Beijing. Because ultimately, there is no guarantee that removing the obstinate leader would yield better results than simply leaving him in office, or that the United States would not seize the opportunity to extend its reach in China's neighborhood.

 

[The Mountain]

I received this in an email last night. It contains a tidbit that we all suspected, but which I have not seen reported anywhere. It came from Countable, an app that lets you track your reps and message them about issues:

All 100 members of the U.S. Senate have been called to the White House for a rare, classified briefing on North Korea. Senators confirmed to Countable today that the discussion will center on the military movements and weapons program of the country's erratic leader, Kim Jong-Un, and the possibility of a U.S. preemptive strike.

Now, I don't know how reliable the info from this source is, so I can't say for sure that this isn't something they added or inferred to make their update sound more critical. But it's out there now, so make of it what you will.

 

[Medical Maven]

So, China's historical tolerance toward Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions is hardly surprising. From Beijing's perspective, the controversial program has been a necessary means of safeguarding the North Korean government's grip on power and preventing a security vacuum that might invite U.S. interference. But as the prospect of a nuclear North Korea has shifted from a distant possibility to an impending threat, China has had to come to terms with a number of new and uncomfortable realities. South Korea, Japan and possibly Taiwan are eager to build a regional ballistic missile defense system led by the United States, perhaps even someday seeking nuclear weapons programs of their own. Meanwhile, as China has found itself less able to restrain the recalcitrant government in Pyongyang, the threat of military conflict on its border — or negotiations with Washington that exclude Beijing — has grown.

The above is the "money quote" from the STRATFOR article.

As they like to say these days we have reached the "inflection" point.
(I have noticed that "inflection" seems to be the new buzz word these days for about everything).