ALERT North Korea 'fires submarine-launched ballistic missile' - 23 April 2016

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/north-korea-nukes-and-sanity/

North Korea, Nukes and Sanity

April 25, 2016 There is rationality behind the North Koreans’ nuclear program.

By George Friedman

The North Koreans launched a ballistic missile from a submarine on April 23. This followed what appeared to be a failed launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in March. Also over the weekend, the North Korean foreign minister, in an interview with the Associated Press, said that North Korea would halt its nuclear tests (missiles weren’t mentioned) in return for the U.S. ceasing its major annual military exercises with South Korea. These are major, combined armed exercises designed to practice halting a North Korean invasion of the south.

The offer was unofficial and, given North Korea’s prior behavior, it might be retracted. But it does give us a sense of why the North Koreans are pursuing a nuclear program. First, as it crosses the line beyond which it is likely to acquire the ability to launch nuclear-tipped missiles, the probability of pre-emptive strikes against North Korea – not necessarily nuclear – mounts. Given China’s recently expressed dismay at North Korea’s program, the Chinese might not object to such a pre-emption, and possibly neither would Russia. In other words, for all the effort the North Koreans are putting in to developing the system, being able to complete it requires an intelligence failure on the part of the West, especially the United States. And in this case, since technological means of gathering intelligence (satellites, intercepts of information flows and so on) are involved, an intelligence failure is somewhat less likely than if they were using only human intelligence.

Second, if North Korea succeeded in launching its weapons, and destroyed a Japanese or American city, North Korea would have to expect that it would be hit with a substantial nuclear strike. North Korea is a small country and its leadership has shown few suicidal tendencies. Therefore, from a North Korean point of view, a successful launch would mean catastrophe for the country and likely the leadership as well.

It is possible that the North Koreans are crazy. Whenever American analysts encounter someone they don’t understand, or someone who delivers messages they wouldn’t deliver, the default assumption is that the leader, and likely everyone around him, is crazy. This relieves the analyst from the obligation of trying to figure out the intention behind the leader’s actions. Crazy means unpredictable, and unpredictable means that he is beyond understanding. And that in turn means that he is capable of anything. Therefore, assuming a leader is crazy takes his file off the analyst’s desk because it means he is beyond understanding and anything is possible.

Looking at Kim Jong Un, it is certainly possible to say that he doesn’t look like a rational leader, particularly given the unconfirmed report that he executed his uncle with an anti-aircraft gun. But the fact that he doesn’t look or act like any of the American candidates for the presidency doesn’t make him crazy. And if he actually evaporated his uncle, it simply means that he is a nasty piece of work. But he can’t be said to be crazy, and the analyst can’t abandon his obligation to figure him out.

It is important to note that while the North Koreans have been developing nuclear capability, they have been careful not to cross the line of erecting a missile on a launch pad with a nuclear warhead attached. Everything they have done to date has been designed to demonstrate that they might shortly develop a deliverable nuclear weapon, but that they have not yet done so. They have developed the possibility of the threat, without crossing the line where a country, the United States in particular, would find it necessary to launch a pre-emptive attack. This means that they are aware of the line and are extremely controlled in not crossing it.

They have a rational reason for this program, not dissimilar to Iran’s: it is a negotiating tool. It is obvious to any country that the United States will give its undivided attention to a nation developing a nuclear capability. It is also obvious that the United States does not act until it is forced to. The American response to a nuclear program is obsession, anxiety and the development of contingency plans.

During the time after serious development of a nuclear weapon has begun, and before deployment, the United States is inclined to negotiate. Without a program, the U.S. is indifferent. After deployment, the United States will act. In between those two poles, the United States is constantly seeking solutions that do not involve military action. Premature action might fail to destroy the program and harden the other side’s conviction that it must have nuclear weapons. Pre-emption after deployment might require a nuclear strike, and the United States doesn’t want to reintroduce that as an option.

Therefore, a nation having developed a program is in an optimal position to achieve concessions from the United States. Thus, the North Korean foreign minister’s offer to exchange nuclear tests (not the program itself) for a halt in U.S.-South Korean exercises is a very logical, if exploratory, move. Not surprisingly, the United States rejected the idea out of hand. The Americans undoubtedly expected some sort of offer and the North Koreans undoubtedly expected the American refusal. The U.S. doesn’t want North Korea to only halt tests but to halt the program. But the North Koreans will not trade the program itself for anything as minor as annual military exercises.

The North Koreans’ problem is that they have already double-crossed the United States several times, having exchanged the program in the past for money and food. In due course, they resumed it. They have used the nuclear program as a kind of ATM, where they can withdraw valuable concessions from the United States and then fail to fully implement their promise. But that is simply dishonest, not crazy.

It is particularly not crazy because it displays an accurate North Korean read on the United States. The United States is focused on the North Korean threat, but will not act decisively. North Korea, therefore, has room for maneuver. It can in any case use the program to build its credibility at home. The unknowns of the nuclear program will deter any conventional action, regardless of how unlikely it is the program will be completed. And with care, it can kick off another round of negotiations, possibly with goodies at the end.

For North Korea, this is a rational calculus of the behavior of its major potential enemy. And talking in ways Americans regard as crazy is simply a convincing way to freeze the Americans in place. Put simply, being a jerk doesn’t mean you’re crazy. It is not a bad negotiating posture in any market. But this is also not a nuclear program that is going to deploy a target for the United States. It is a way to manage the United States.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/5-ways-respond-if-north-korea-tests-another-nuke-15931

The Skeptics

5 Ways to Respond If North Korea Tests Another Nuke

Doug Bandow
April 25, 2016
Comments 12

In January North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in the face of universal international protest. Even China, Pyongyang’s one nominal ally, joined in the criticism.

With Beijing’s support the United Nations imposed new sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The U.S. and its allies warned Pyongyang of further isolation if the DPRK continued to flout the will of the international community.

Now the North appears to be preparing another nuclear test. The action might be timed for the upcoming Korean Workers’ Party congress [4], the first in three decades. Presenting North Korea as a powerful nation and Kim Jong-un as a far-seeing leader are among the conference’s most important objectives.

If the DPRK conducts another test, no further proof will be needed that the North intends to become a significant nuclear power. When the Agreed Framework [5] was negotiated two decades ago, Pyongyang might have been willing to abandon its nuclear ambitions at the right price. Those days are long past. North Korea has invested too much to drop the program. Only because of its nuclear weapons does anyone beyond its borders pay attention to the North. Nukes also reinforce military loyalty to the Kim dynasty.

Moreover, the North lives the old Henry Kissinger aphorism that even paranoids have enemies. What country does not want regime change in the DPRK? The United States, backed by the Europeans, has demonstrated its willingness to oust dictators on its “bad” list, even after making a deal with them, such as Muammar el-Qaddafi. Pyongyang does not even trust its supposed friend to the north.

Indeed, what makes the prospect of another test particularly dramatic is Kim Jong-un’s apparent willingness to proceed at any cost. He can have little doubt that the U.S. will press for additional sanctions. He knows that no other government will defend his regime. He is aware that the People’s Republic of China has no affection for its small, troublesome neighbor. Indeed, after the January test the PRC approved tougher international penalties, tightened border controls, and even allowed the embarrassing mass defection [6] of North Korean restaurant workers. Every additional DPRK provocation threatens to become the last back-breaking straw for China, leading it to target food and energy aid, which would cause Pyongyang enormous hardship.

What to do when nothing so far has worked?

First, the United States, Republic of Korea and Japan should consider how to deal with a nuclear North Korea. Two decades of pronouncements that the North must not develop nuclear weapons are for naught—and, indeed, are far more embarrassing than any busted “red line” over Syrian chemical weapons. Now what?

A refusal to acknowledge the DPRK as a nuclear power won’t stop it from being one. If North Korea continues to augment its capabilities, then what? What military, political and economic steps should be taken, and by whom? Since neither Moscow nor Beijing favors a nuclear North, how would they react? How far outward would the impact of an unstable and threatening DPRK radiate? The more likely the prospect of Pyongyang as a modest nuclear power, the more urgent serious thinking about a transformed Northeast Asia.

Second, Japan and the ROK should set aside past differences to confront a common threat. There is much blame to go around for the two nations’ poor relationship, the bulk of it resting on Tokyo. However, the colonial era ended seventy-one years ago and Japan poses no future threat to the South. These two prosperous democratic countries should prepare for problems of the future rather than reinvigorate hatreds of the past.

Third, the United States and its allies should further engage Beijing over Pyongyang. The PRC has the most leverage with the North because of the former’s energy and food assistance, but is hesitant to risk encouraging regime collapse. Thus, Washington, in particular, must address China’s concerns, including mass refugee flows, factional conflict and a reunited Korea allied with America. Lecturing the PRC about its duty to help the U.S. has never worked. The allies need to offer to share costs, acknowledge Chinese interests, and convince Beijing that they would not take geopolitical advantage of the demise of the PRC’s one East Asian ally.

Fourth, Washington should offer to defuse the perceived threat environment facing the North, backed by an offer to negotiate on issues other than nuclear weapons. This doesn’t mean blaming America, trusting Pyongyang, endorsing a nuclear North, or appeasing Kim Jong-un. Rather, it means recognizing that the current regime has reason to fear the United States. That no doubt at least contributes to its desire to be well-armed. To the extent that Kim desires a wealthier nation, he might be willing to limit his arms programs if he is less concerned about an American threat to his dynasty’s future. Maybe not, but Washington should test the possibility.

Fifth, the allies should consider the advisability of Japan and South Korea developing countervailing nuclear arsenals. America’s nuclear umbrella keeps the U.S. dangerously entangled in a potential conflict no longer critical to American security. A number of South Koreans have raised the possibility of building a bomb: the prospect horrifies nonproliferation advocates but would allow Washington to step back and might force the PRC to act.

We are approaching a time when Northeast Asia will have three nuclear powers, all potentially bad actors: China, Russia, and the North. Washington can forever remain in the middle of this unstable nuclear scrum, or America’s democratic allies can deter aggression on their own. The idea certainly is worth discussing, especially within hearing of Chinese officials.

Foreign-policy hawks ritualistically complain about the Obama administration’s failure to enforce the chemical weapons red line. If lost credibility is so important, what about the two decades of pronouncements that the DPRK would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons? North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons could significantly change the dynamic in Northeast Asia.

It’s still okay to hope for collapse, implosion, or some other deus ex machina to “solve” the problem of the North. But it is foolish to expect a miraculous rescue. The United States and its friends should start planning seriously for a nuclear DPRK. They should be prepared for when North Korea stands with India, Israel and Pakistan as a mid-level nuclear power.

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire [7] (Xulon).

Image [8]: Operation Storax - Sedan test. Wikimedia Commons/public domain.

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[Housecarl]

Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-northkorea-xi-idUSKCN0XP05P

World | Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:38pm EDT
Related: World, China

China won't allow chaos or war on Korean peninsula: Xi

BEIJING | By Michael Martina

China will not allow chaos and war to break out on the Korean peninsula, which would be to no one's advantage, Chinese President Xi Jinping told a group of Asian foreign ministers on Thursday.

North Korea's drive to develop a nuclear weapons capability, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, has angered China and raised tension in the region.

"As a close neighbor of the peninsula, we will absolutely not permit war or chaos on the peninsula. This situation would not benefit anyone," Xi said in a speech to a Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia.

North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and followed that with tests of various missiles that could deliver such a weapon.

The isolated state is expected to conduct another nuclear test before a rare congress of its ruling party, beginning on May 6, at which young leader Kim Jong Un is expected to try to cement his leadership.

China is North Korea's sole major ally but it disapproves of its development of nuclear weapons and backed harsh new U.N. sanctions imposed last month.

China has long called for the Korean peninsula to be free of nuclear weapons.

Nearly 30,000 U.S. troops are based in South Korea and the two Koreas are still technically at war after the 1950-53 conflict ended in an armistice, not a treaty.

Xi also told the meeting China would safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea, while at the same time maintaining its sovereignty and rights there.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, believed to rich in oil and gas deposits. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also claim parts of the waters, through which about $5 trillion in trade is shipped every year.

China has rattled nerves with its military and construction activities on tiny islands in the disputed waters, including building runways, though it says most of its activity is for civilian purposes.

Chinese officials say the United States is pushing militarization and endangering stability with "freedom of navigation" operations by its military ships and aircraft in the South and East China seas.

The United States says it conducts such patrols across the world in an effort to demonstrate that the international community does not accept restrictions set up by some countries in international waters.

The Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia involves 26 members, including Russia and many countries from Central Asia and the Middle East. The United States and Japan are among eight observers.


(Reporting by Michael Martina; Editing by Paul Tait, Robert Birsel)

 

[China Connection]

China is telling a big one, that is for sure.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN0XP0R2

Business | Thu Apr 28, 2016 4:00am EDT
Related: World, South Korea, North Korea, Aerospace & Defense

North Korea's test of intermediate range missile fails again: South Korea


North Korea fired what appeared to have been an intermediate range ballistic missile on Thursday but it crashed seconds after the test launch, South Korea's defense ministry said, the second such failure this month.

A defense ministry official told Reuters that the launch from near the North Korean east coast city of Wonsan appeared to have been of a Musudan missile with a range of more than 3,000 km (1,800 miles), at about 6:40 a.m. local time (2140 GMT).

Isolated North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile launches and tests of military technology in the run-up to a rare congress of its ruling Workers' Party that is set to begin on May 6.

Thursday's apparent failure, however, marks another setback for young leader Kim Jong Un. A similar missile launched on the April 15 birthday of his grandfather and the country's founder, Kim Il Sung, exploded in what the U.S. Defense Department called a "fiery, catastrophic" failure.

South Korea also says the North is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time. It would be its fifth nuclear test.

The defense ministry official, who declined to be identified by name, said South Korean and U.S. officials were analyzing the cause of the missile crash, declining to comment on why the launch was revealed hours after it took place.

The South's Yonhap News Agency said the fired missile was not detected by South Korean military radar because it did not fly above a few hundred meters, and was spotted by a U.S. satellite.

The South Korean defense ministry told Reuters it could not confirm that report.

On Saturday, North Korea tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, which traveled about 30 km (18 miles) off its east coast.


(Reporting by Ju-min Park; Writing by Tony Munroe; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

[Housecarl]

WTF?!?! is going on up there in Pyongyang?.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.trust.org/item/20160428080246-wfg5r

N.Korea test-fires two intermediate-range missiles, both fail-S.Korea

Source: Reuters - Thu, 28 Apr 2016 15:05 GMT
Author: Reuters

(Adds second failed missile launch on Thursday)

By Ju-min Park

SEOUL, April 28 (Reuters) - North Korea test-fired what appeared to be two intermediate range ballistic missiles on Thursday but both failed, a South Korean official said, in a setback for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the run-up to next week's ruling party congress.

Isolated North Korea has conducted a series of missile launches, in violation of U.N. resolutions, and tests of military technology ahead of the Workers' Party congress that begins on May 6.

Thursday's tests looked to have been hurried, according to a defence expert in Seoul, and follow a failed launch of a similar missile earlier this month.

The first launch, at about 6:40 a.m. local time (2140 GMT Wednesday) from near the east coast city of Wonsan, appeared to have been of a Musudan missile with a range of more than 3,000 km (1,800 miles) which crashed within seconds, the South Korean defence ministry official said.

Later, at around 7:26 p.m., the North shot a similar intermediate range missile from the same area, but the launch was also understood to have failed, the official added.

The U.S. Strategic Command said it tracked two attempted North Korean missile launches, neither of which posed a threat to North America.

"They are in a rush to show anything that is successful, to meet the schedule of a political event, the party congress," said Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defence and Security Forum and a policy adviser to the South Korean navy, speaking after the first launch.

"They need to succeed but they keep failing. They didn't have enough time to fix or technically modify the system, but just shot them because they were in a hurry."

A similar missile launched on the April 15 birthday anniversary of Kim's late grandfather, the country's founder Kim Il Sung, exploded in what the U.S. Defense Department called a "fiery, catastrophic" failure.

Some experts had predicted that North Korea would wait until it figured out what went wrong in the previous failed Musudan missile launch before attempting another, a process that could take months and a sign that Thursday's firings were rushed.

However, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday that the North appeared to be preparing another launch of a Musudan, which theoretically has the range to reach any part of Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam.

According to South Korea, the missile has never been successfully flight-tested.

North Korea lists South Korea, the United States and Japan as its main enemies.

South Korea also says the North is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time. It would be its fifth.

"Signs for an imminent fifth nuclear test are being detected ahead of North Korea's seventh Party Congress," President Park Geun-hye said at a national security meeting on Thursday.


DID NOT FLY HIGH

The defence ministry official, who declined to be named, did not comment on why news of the first launch came out several hours after it took place.

Yonhap said the missile was not detected by South Korean military radar because it did not fly above a few hundred metres, and was spotted by a U.S. satellite.

The South Korean defence ministry could not confirm that report.

North Korea's missile tests are in defiance of United Nations Security Council sanctions against the country, which were strengthened following a January nuclear test and a space rocket launch the following month.

On Saturday, North Korea tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, which travelled about 30 km (18 miles) off its east coast. (Writing by Tony Munroe,; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Mike Collett-White)

 

[Oreally]

great news. can't be good for the dear leaders prospects. expect lots of heads, or bodies to be blown apart, to roll after this embarrassment.

 

[Housecarl]

great news. can't be good for the dear leaders prospects. expect lots of heads, or bodies to be blown apart, to roll after this embarrassment.

The other side of that coin is they should now have a lot of data on what might be going wrong and fix them.

Another is that with this much fervor in "test launches", particularly with the Party Congress occurring in a little over a week, implies that the degree of showboating Pyongyang is willing to indulge in may not be limited by anything other than the availability and reliability of the gear they've got available. My biggest concern, as I've noted before, is them popping a nuclear warhead in a high altitude shot via a more proven Nodong MRBM or worse, them conducting a "snap" launch of a weaponized Uhna 3 or one of the "new" KN-08s/KN-14s out into the mid-Pacific.

 

[vestige]

China won't allow chaos or war on Korean peninsula: Xi

It just keeps on coming...

 

[AlfaMan]

He's getting desperate. Two failed missile launches, hurried preparations for them, etc. The experts are saying another nuke test is imminent. All pretty clear indicators Kim Jong Un is desperate. He feels the missile tests and nuke tests make him relevant on the world stage and in his own country. More failures=more insecurity for him. The more insecurity he has the more crazy he is to try something really stupid. Like, invading South Korea, or going after the Blue House in Seoul like his grandfather did, going etc.
Kim Jong Un needs to be put away, and put away now.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

I was trying to take a break from posting, but seems I can't stay away. I'm still reading btw, just trying to cut back on posting to see if it helps my general mood (too gloom and doomy these days, sometimes we need a break and I was taking mine. however I have a feeling it's about over!).

Anyway, I just had to post this thought....

I do not believe these are failures. I don't have the technical background so I'll leave it to HC or others to let me know if this is a possibility - but I think Kim is testing a specific component and is trying to mask it by letting the missile crash so no one knows what's he's up to. I think the general consensus is STILL that Kim is a wannabe incompetent boob so he's playing up to that. I think he's clever like a fox and I don't underestimate him for 1 milisecond. These missile launches are testing something - I don't know what, but after he gets the data, he's crashing the missile on purpose. imho.

HD

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-china-russia-idUSKCN0XQ0BP

Business | Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:13pm EDT
Related: World, China, Russia, South Korea

U.S. stands by South Korea defense talks despite China, Russia objections

The White House on Friday said talks to install a new anti-missile defense system in South Korea would continue in the wake of nuclear arms and missile tests by North Korea despite calls by China and Russia for the United States to back off.

The United States and South Korea have begun talks on possible deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system after North Korea tested its fourth nuclear bomb on Jan. 6 and conducted missile tests.

The nuclear test and missile launches violate U.N. resolutions against North Korea backed by Russia and China. U.S. and South Korean officials have expressed concern the North could attempt a fifth nuclear test in a show of strength ahead of its Workers' Party congress, which begins on May 6.

North Korea test-fired what appeared to be two intermediate range ballistic missiles on Thursday, but both failed, according to the U.S. military.

On Friday, the White House said it was still in talks with its close ally South Korea and that the system, if installed, would not threaten other countries.

"Those discussions are ongoing," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters. "That equipment would be oriented toward the threat that is posed by North Korea, not oriented toward China or Russia."

Speaking at joint press briefing with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi earlier on Friday called on the United States to respect "legitimate concerns" of China and Russia over the missile system.

"This move goes beyond the defensive needs of the relevant countries. If it is deployed it will directly impact China's and Russia's respective strategic security," Wang said.

"Not only does it threaten the resolution of the peninsula nuclear issue, it quite possibly could pour oil on the fire of an already tense situation, and even destroy strategic equilibrium on the peninsula."

North Korea's actions should not be used as an excuse to make moves that would escalate tensions, especially the U.S. deployment of an anti-missile system, Lavrov said, according to an interpretation in Chinese.

North Korea's drive to develop a nuclear weapons capability has angered China, Pyongyang's sole major diplomatic and economic supporter. But Beijing fears THAAD and its radar have a range that would extend into China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has said Beijing would not allow war and chaos to break out on the Korean peninsula.

Earnest gave no timing on when talks with South Korea may concluded but added that "the United States is prepared to invest resources in keeping them safe."

North and South Korea remain technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, rather than a treaty. The North routinely threatens to destroy South Korea and the United States.


(Reporting by Michael Martina; Editing by Nick Macfie and Cynthia Osterman)

 

[Housecarl]

I was trying to take a break from posting, but seems I can't stay away. I'm still reading btw, just trying to cut back on posting to see if it helps my general mood (too gloom and doomy these days, sometimes we need a break and I was taking mine. however I have a feeling it's about over!).

Anyway, I just had to post this thought....

I do not believe these are failures. I don't have the technical background so I'll leave it to HC or others to let me know if this is a possibility - but I think Kim is testing a specific component and is trying to mask it by letting the missile crash so no one knows what's he's up to. I think the general consensus is STILL that Kim is a wannabe incompetent boob so he's playing up to that. I think he's clever like a fox and I don't underestimate him for 1 milisecond. These missile launches are testing something - I don't know what, but after he gets the data, he's crashing the missile on purpose. imho.

HD

With regards to the SLBM test....

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/wednesday-27-april-2016

Wednesday 27 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Rick Fisher, Senior Fellow on Asian Military Affairs, Intl Assessment and Strategy Center; in re: Submarine-launched ballistic missiles. 23 April North Korean development of SLBM: in the past year, it's migrated from a liquid-fuel engine to a solid-fuel engine – much easier to store and to put on a sub. Moreover, it's provided cold-launch launch: can eject from a tube and send it flying above water. Missile can be store-able , and with solid fuel rocket motor and cold launch, North Korea now is able to build modern long-range ballistic missiles. It soon can have mobile missiles that re very hard to find and hard to defend against. DPRK has made remarkable progress in 52 weeks: in the next two to three years, we’ll see a new generation of missiles, and already has mobile launchers – thanks to China – so they can be stored more easily and very rapidly deployed, the latter fast enough for us not to be able to stop and attack on the US. Marry that warhead with this missile in a sub, the whole thing changes US defense posture. Iran has a 1.25 meter diameter rocker motor; so does the new North Korean motor. When it can produce a two-stage rocket, then it'll have technology that obviates the problem of its noisy subs. China has spent decades creating this network of rogue regimes (North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, inter al.). When the sub cruises on its electric motor underwater, it's quiet; is noisy only on the surface. China can greatly extend he underwater range of DPRK subs. These missiles can be put on merchant ships. Surprise terrorist strikes against the US or other nations. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/23/asia/north-korea-launches-missile-from-submarine/ ; http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36127011

Solid fueled mobile systems, particularly MRBM systems to threaten the region, makes things all the more difficult, particularly when combined with a submarine. I'm guessing those current liquid fueled "ICBMs" will still be fielded until they get solid fueled systems on line.

As to the tempo of these failed tests, the only other thing I can think of as to why they'd do a series of "failed' tests would be either to keep the US, Japanese and South Koreans jumping or misdirect attention or expectations.

Recall a few years ago the Iranians were doing missile tests where the missile was going straight up to a specific altitude before destructing the missile as well. I don't recall seeing an explanation for that either.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific...-soldiers-of-provoking-border-troops-1.407006

North Korea accuses US soldiers of provoking border troops

By Hyung-Jin Kim
Associated Press
Published: April 29, 2016

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Friday accused U.S. soldiers of trying to provoke its frontline troops with "disgusting" acts and encouraging South Korean soldiers to aim their guns at the North.

A North Korean military statement warned U.S. soldiers to stop what it called "hooliganism" at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom or they'll meet a "dog's death any time and any place."

"GIs hurled fully armed MPs of the South Korean puppet army into perpetrating such dangerous provocations as aiming at" the North Korean military side last week, said the statement carried by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency.

It said U.S. troops pointed their fingers at North Korean soldiers and made strange noises and unspecified "disgusting" facial expressions.

North Korea occasionally accuses South Korean and U.S. troops of trying to provoke its border troops and vice versa. After North Korea's first nuclear bomb test in 2006, the U.S. accused North Korean troops of spitting across the border's demarcation line, making throat-slashing hand gestures and flashing their middle fingers.

The latest North Korean accusation came a day after South Korean and U.S. officials said two suspected medium-range missile launches by North Korea ended in failure. In recent weeks, North Korea fired a barrage of missiles and artillery shells into the sea in an apparent response to annual South Korea-U.S. military drills that end Saturday.

The U.S. and South Korean militaries had no immediate official responses.

About 28,000 American troops are deployed in South Korea to deter potential aggression from North Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in an armistice and not a peace treaty.

Panmunjom, located inside the 4-kilometer- (2.5-mile-) wide Demilitarized Zone that bisects the Korean Peninsula, is where the 1953 armistice was signed. It remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints, but Panmunjom — jointly overseen by North Korea and the American-led U.N. Command — is also a popular tourist spot drawing visitors on both sides.

Visitors from the southern side are often told by tour guides to be extremely careful about what gestures they make so as not to antagonize the nearby North Korean soldiers.

 

[OldArcher]

When is somebody gonna give that malignant dwarf a nasal cleanse with cupro-nickel? 9mm or .45acp, it doesn't matter... Shucks, even circumcise him, just beneath his chin, with a very, very, dull blade... He's a stench in the nostrils, and doesn't need to be here, there, or anywhere...

Maranatha

OA

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldk...oreas-first-party-congress-in-36-years/print/

4/29/2016 @ 11:52AM

Fears of Nuclear, Missile Tests Overshadow North Korea's First Party Congress In 36 Years
Donald Kirk, Contributor

North Korea gets more publicity for its upcoming Party Congress by scaring everyone about missile and nuclear tests than it does by publicizing the Congress itself.

The assumption is that “Respected Leader” Kim Jong-Un wants to hold the Congress both to confirm his own power four years and five months after the death of his father, “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il, and also to get across a direly needed scheme for lifting the economy from its usual lower depths. That hardly means, however, an end or even a softening of the songun or “military first” policy that ranks as the country’s watchword along with juche, “self-reliance.”

In the run-up to the Party Congress, talk about those missile tests, and a possible fifth nuclear test, dominates the conversation. At a “plenum” in Seoul of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, an influential Korean think tank, speaker after speaker speculated about reports that North Korea may conduct its fifth test – and about intensified sanctions against the regime if it does.

The prevailing view is that North Korea may well conduct the test and the United Nations will have to respond with ever more tough words and more action. Less certain is whether China, while paying lip service to sanctions, will really be enthusiastic about enforcing them. Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, reflected the measured ambivalence at a dinner in the midst of the forum when he said China might not “entirely change North Korea’s policy” but would “alter it partially.”

Campbell, advising Hillary Clinton on foreign policy during her campaign, had nothing but praise for her as his boss while she was secretary of state – and spoke contemptuously of Donald Trump. The inference was that Hillary would get tough, would live up to promises to defend its South Korean ally, while Trump might undermine the alliance. Trump’s calls for South Korea and Japan to do much more for their own defense while the U.S. pulls troops from the region have added to unease in both Seoul and Tokyo about the U.S. commitment in case North Korea shows real signs of making good on its threats.

The experts at the Asan conference mostly hedged their bets – Victor Cha of Georgetown University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies said surely the North Korean regime must someday come to an end but no telling when. That view permeated the outlook of a galaxy of panelists.

If the talk was mainly warmed-over perceptions, the timing was terrific. No sooner was the Asan shindig over than North Korea had to show its capacity for making good on vows to bring terror to the hearts of its enemies. One day the North fired an intercontinental ballistic from a submarine and two days later fired two Musudan mid-range missiles from near the east coast port of Wonsan.

The trouble with these tests is they all were failures. The missile from the submarine flew for about 20 miles in two minutes before crashing into the sea, and the two Musudan missiles blew up shortly after liftoff. Kim Jong-un reportedly witnessed the first test, praising its results, but he could not have been too happy, and he had to have been still less happy about the explosions of the two Musudans.

But not to worry. Don’t we all learn from our failures? The North Koreans can go right on testing missiles until some day they get it right.

And then there are those nuclear tests. Speaker after speaker at the Asan Plenum seemed to think Kim Jong-un might actually go through with another one soon. Now the betting is he’ll be more determined than ever to do it before or during the Party Congress if only to prove to his people, notably the crowd at the congress, that he’s a strongman capable of building up North Korea’s nuclear strength in defiance of condemnation from countries near and far.

Convincing demonstrations of success with nukes and missiles would comprise the most obvious of all the preparations for the summit. North Korea hasn’t held a Party Congress since 1980. Kim Jong-un’s grandfather Kim Il-sung was at the height of his powers, having purged his worst enemies for demonstrating “pro-China” or “pro-Soviet” proclivities. He believed, though, his time might be running out, and he designated Kim Jong-il to succeed him. Jong-il’s power grew rapidly as he assumed responsibility for the armed forces, making the transition smoothly, without incident, after his father died in 1994.

Two big questions revolve around this next Congress – why has there been no Congress for nearly 36 years, and is Kim Jong-un saving some important announcement for the occasion?

Might Kim Jong-un have seen the Congress as needed to confirm his success in getting rid of foes within the party – about 70 have reportedly been executed so far. Or could the need to convene a Congress indicate the weakness of a leader who had nothing approaching the experience of his father when power was suddenly thrust upon him?

Kim Jong-un may provide clues to the answers when he convenes the Congress after the distraction of nuke and missile tests – evidence of insecurity rather than confidence or strength.

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

With regards to the SLBM test....

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/wednesday-27-april-2016

As to the tempo of these failed tests, the only other thing I can think of as to why they'd do a series of "failed' tests would be either to keep the US, Japanese and South Koreans jumping or misdirect attention or expectations.

Possible. But what if he's testing something else? Something having to do with the earliest stage/first few seconds of the launch and once he has that data doesn't need anymore info from the launch and also wants to cover his tracks so has the missile self destruct?

Recall a few years ago the Iranians were doing missile tests where the missile was going straight up to a specific altitude before destructing the missile as well. I don't recall seeing an explanation for that either.

Really... hmmm... I didn't recall that, but that sort of bolsters my theory.

BTW, thanks for the link to the John Batchelor show. Doesn't help my doomy gloomy mood any but it was very enlightening.

HD

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

This article is from earlier this week but I think it needs to be archived in this thread.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/24/obama-rejects-north-koreas-offer-to-suspend-missil/
(fair use applies)

Obama rejects North Korea’s offer to suspend missile tests
By Dave Boyer - The Washington Times
Sunday, April 24, 2016

President Obama said Sunday he doesn’t take seriously North Korea’s offer to suspend its missile program if the U.S. ends annual military exercises with South Korea.

Speaking at a press conference in Germany, Mr. Obama said North Korea’s repeated “provocative” actions, including the reported missile launch this weekend from a submarine, demonstrate that Pyongyang isn’t committed to stabilizing the Korean peninsula.

“We don’t take seriously a promise to simply halt until the next time they decide to do a test,” Mr. Obama said. “That’s not something that happens based on a press release in the wake of a series of provocative behaviors. They’re going to have to do better than that.”

The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said Saturday that North Korea fired what is believed to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula. South Korean officials said the missile appears to have flown about 19 miles, well short of a successful test.

A North Korean official later offered to suspend such tests if the U.S. would halt its military exercises with South Korea.

Mr. Obama said the U.S. and the “entire world” take North Korea’s testing seriously.

“Although more often than not they fail in many of these tests, they gain knowledge each time they engage in these tests,” Mr. Obama said, adding that such behavior is “why we’ve cultivated cooperation with the Chinese to put more pressure on North Korea.”

“Although it is not where we would completely like it to be, I will say we’ve seen the Chinese be more alarmed and take more seriously what North Korea is doing,” he said. “They have been willing to be more forward leaning in exacting a price on North Korea’s destructive behavior.”

 

[Housecarl]

Possible. But what if he's testing something else? Something having to do with the earliest stage/first few seconds of the launch and once he has that data doesn't need anymore info from the launch and also wants to cover his tracks so has the missile self destruct?



Really... hmmm... I didn't recall that, but that sort of bolsters my theory.

BTW, thanks for the link to the John Batchelor show. Doesn't help my doomy gloomy mood any but it was very enlightening.

HD

The nice thing about his show is the variety of subjects he covers including economics, politics, current events, foreign affairs, science, technology and history.

 

[Countrymouse]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific...-soldiers-of-provoking-border-troops-1.407006

North Korea accuses US soldiers of provoking border troops

By Hyung-Jin Kim
Associated Press
Published: April 29, 2016

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Friday accused U.S. soldiers of trying to provoke its frontline troops with "disgusting" acts and encouraging South Korean soldiers to aim their guns at the North.

A North Korean military statement warned U.S. soldiers to stop what it called "hooliganism" at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom or they'll meet a "dog's death any time and any place."

"GIs hurled fully armed MPs of the South Korean puppet army into perpetrating such dangerous provocations as aiming at" the North Korean military side last week, said the statement carried by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency.

It said U.S. troops pointed their fingers at North Korean soldiers and made strange noises and unspecified "disgusting" facial expressions.

North Korea occasionally accuses South Korean and U.S. troops of trying to provoke its border troops and vice versa. After North Korea's first nuclear bomb test in 2006, the U.S. accused North Korean troops of spitting across the border's demarcation line, making throat-slashing hand gestures and flashing their middle fingers.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...1f2dd8-0dad-11e6-90b7-92f16a8501d9_story.html

Asia & Pacific

Japan calls for international help as North Korea stonewalls on abductions

By Anna Fifield
April 30 at 12:22 PM

TOKYO — After years of wrangling with North Korea, Japan is appealing to the international community to help bring back Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea several decades ago.

Pyongyang agreed two years ago to reopen an investigation into the abductions of 12 people kidnapped to train North Korean spies. But Japan has been frustrated by Pyongyang’s refusal to return or adequately explain what happened to the abductees, an issue that has bedeviled relations between the two countries for years. After stalling for a year, North Korea angrily declared in February that it was stopping its investigation.

Katsunobu Kato, Japan’s minister in charge of the abduction issue, will deliver an address in Washington this week and then at the U.N. to ask the international community to help “extract and induce” cooperation from North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un.

“Our position is to strongly demand that the judgment is made [to resume discussions],” Kato said in an interview in his office, adorned with posters of the most famous abductee, Megumi Yokota, a 13-year-old who was taken on her way home from school in 1977.

During the 1970s and early 1980s, North Korea operated a state-sponsored abduction program in which it snatched young Japanese and put them on a boat to North Korea, where they were used to train spies to speak their language and pass for Japanese.

In a surprise development, North Korea admitted in 2002 that it had been abducting Japanese and agreed to return five of the people on Japan’s list of 17. But it said that eight of the others on the list, including Megumi, had died in North Korea and that the other four never entered the country.

The issue was dormant until an agreement in 2014 in which Tokyo agreed to ease sanctions on North Korea and Pyongyang agreed to investigate what had happened to the abductees.

But Pyongyang never submitted the reports it promised or made further progress and the negotiations stalled. Then, after this year’s nuclear and missile tests, Japan reinstated old sanctions and imposed new ones on North Korea, and supported multilateral measures.

In response, North Korea’s investigation committee said its work “will be totally stopped.”

Kato said that in his speeches in the United States, he will ask the global community to work together and will “strongly demand” that North Korea cooperate.

But as international efforts to curtail North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have shown, a “strongly demand” that Pyongyang do something does not work, and North Korea holds all the cards on this issue.

Analysts say that Japan’s pleas are falling on deaf ears. As with denuclearization discussions, North Korea expects to be rewarded for negotiating and will probably insist that sanctions be dropped — and billions of dollars in humanitarian aid be promised — for cooperation on the abduction issue. That is impossible given the current crackdown on North Korea for its recent provocations, analysts say.


Read more:

Japanese women who have escaped from North Korea find little sympathy at home

U.N. adopts sweeping new sanctions on North Korea

Global powers condemn North Korea’s nuclear weapons test

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/741961.html

[Analysis] North Korea�'s first Workers�' Party Congress in 36 years

Posted on : Apr.30,2016 14:11 KST
Modified on : Apr.30,2016 14:11 KST

The North�fs most important political event could see latest plans on two-track approach of developing economy and nukes

On May 6, the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers' Party (KWP) will be held in Pyongyang, North Korea, 36 years after the 6th Congress in Oct. 1980.

The long hiatus and the years of silence imply that there will be much to say at the congress. The outside world is keenly interested in the congress, given the high-stakes confrontation with North Korea and the international community following the North's fourth nuclear weapons test on Jan. 6 and its long-range missile launch on Feb. 7.

Understanding North Korea is impossible without first understanding the KWP, which �gleads the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," according to Article 11 of the North Korean constitution. Furthermore, there is no way to understand the KWP without taking a closer look at its congress, which is the KWP�fs "supreme leadership organ," according to Article 14, Clause 1, of the KWP rules.

The KWP Congress is both the essence of understanding North Korea and a shortcut to achieving that understanding.

"The political bureau of the KWP�fs Central Committee has decided to hold the 7th Party Congress in the revolutionary capital of Pyongyang on May 6, 2016,�h read one phrase in the official announcement of the decision made by the politburo of the KWP�fs Central Committee that was carried in North Korea's state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper and the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Apr. 27.

The press and experts in and outside of South Korea have unleashed a torrent of analysis and predictions in regard to the 7th KWP Congress. The South Korean government along with the governments of other major countries in Northeast Asia are following these events closely and mobilizing various agencies to collect information about the direction of the congress. Such actions reflect the fact that the previous congress was held no less than 36 years ago and that this congress is taking place in the fifth year of Kim Jong-un's rule.

In order to gratify this curiosity, it is necessary to know what the status and role of the KWP and the KWP Congress are in North Korea.

North Korea's KWP may be called a party, but it functions differently from South Korean political parties such as the Saenuri Party, the Minjoo Party of Korea, the People's Party and the Justice Party. This is evident from a comparison of the relevant sections in the two constitutions.

The 11th article of North Korea�fs "socialist constitution," the one currently in force following a revision in 2012, states that "The Democratic People's Republic of Korea carries out all of its activities under the leadership of the Korean Workers' Party." What this means is that the party leads the state, an arrangement that is known as a party-state system. This is a system in which a single party establishes the state according to the principle of the dictatorship of the proletariat and takes precedence to the state in leadership.

Center of the party-state system

Some instructive historical precedents are the establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) by the Communist Party, which was centered on the Bolsheviks led by Vladimir Lenin, and the establishment of the People's Republic of China by the Communist Party of China (CPC) under Mao Zedong.

In contrast, Article 8, Clause 1, of the constitution of the Republic of Korea states that "the establishment of political parties shall be free, and the plural party system shall be guaranteed." Clause 4 of the same article goes on to say that "if the purposes or activities of a political party are contrary to the fundamental democratic order, the Government may bring an action against it in the Constitutional Court for its dissolution, and the political party shall be dissolved in accordance with the decision of the Constitutional Court."

In South Korea, every political party must respect and abide by the "fundamental democratic order" specified in the constitution. Parties that do not do so may be dissolved. Thus, in South Korea, the state is above the party.

In the majority of countries that have adopted multi-party systems, the ruling party can change during periodic elections. But in the surviving socialist countries such as North Korea, China, Vietnam and Cuba that maintain the party-state system, the ruling party is in theory the only party, and thus cannot be changed. Historically speaking, such a handover of power has never occurred.

The KWP Congress is the KWP's "supreme leadership organ" that "leads the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," according to Article 14, Clause 1, of the KWP rules. As such, the KWP Congress is the most important political event in North Korea.

The KWP Congress is on a different level from the national conventions of political parties in South Korea at which parties select their leader or their presidential candidates. The closest comparable event would perhaps be South Korea's presidential election.

But presidential elections in South Korea have already taken place 18 times despite a long military dictatorship, while North Korea's KWP Congress has only been held six times.

What�fs on the agenda?

What is discussed and decided at the KWP Congress? While there have been a plethora of analyses and predictions on this question, sticking to the basics is the safest way to go about trying to understand a system like North Korea's in which there is so little transparency in the political process.

The kinds of business done at the KWP Congress are specified in Article 21 of the KWP rules: "‡@ harmonize the business of the KWP Central Committee and the KWP Central Auditing Commission, ‡A adopt, revise and augment the KWP rules and regulations, ‡B debate and decide basic issues about the KWP's course, policies, strategies and tactics, ‡C appoint the KWP general secretary, ‡D and elect the members of the KWP Central Committee and the KWP Central Auditing Commission."

These five types of business can be summarized as assessing the KWP's business and results from the time of the previous congress until the present, providing the KWP with its future direction and policies and reorganizing the KWP's organizations and power structure.

While this may all sound very unfamiliar, don�ft close the window just yet: all you need to know is that this is how the congress works.

All right, so much for the basics. Before moving on to analysis and predictions, we need a refresher on what happened between Oct. 30, 2015, when the decision was made to convene the congress, and Apr. 27, 2016, when the final decision to hold the congress was announced.

The decision to convene the congress was made immediately after an elaborate commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the KWP's establishment on Oct. 10, 1945. A certain confidence can be detected in the draft of the statement of decision: "The political bureau of the Party's Central Committee has decided to convene the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers Party at the beginning of May in Juche Year 105 [2016], to reflect the demand for development in the Party and the revolution, in which an epochal change is taking place in regard to carrying out the great deeds of the Juche Revolution and the formation of a strong and prosperous socialist state." This is the self-satisfaction of a state that has risen above 36 years of hardship that were marked by many concerns and crises to convene a KWP Congress.

But after the decision to convene the KWP Congress, external conditions deteriorated considerably.

First of all, a concert by North Korea's Moranbong Band and the State Merited Chorus in Beijing, which was expected to accelerate the improvement of relations between China and North Korea, fell through when North Korea abruptly withdrew the band on Dec. 12 of last year. And the first round of deputy minister-level talks between North and South Korea that took place at the Kaesong Industrial Complex on the same day could have been a turning point for improving inter-Korean relations, but these broke down as well.

North Korea's simultaneous attempts to improve relations with China and South Korea in advance of the KWP Congress both went nowhere, while the gulf in attitudes between North Korea and South Korea and between North Korea and China grew wider.

If the Moranbong Band's concert in Beijing had gone off without a hitch and if the inter-Korean government talks had also gotten some results, North Korea's subsequent actions would have been, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula today would be, quite different.

According to reports by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), it was immediately after this that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gave orders on Dec. 15 for the fourth nuclear test to go ahead and signed the final order on Jan. 3. Since then, there has been a spate of strategic military actions by North Korea, including the fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6 and the rocket launch on Feb. 7.

The threat index on the Korean Peninsula has skyrocketed. The UN Security Council took action against North Korea by adopting Resolution No. 2270, the strongest non-military action it has taken in the 70 years since the UN was founded.

It is unconfirmed whether Kim Jong-un was planning to carry out a fourth nuclear test before the KWP Congress when he decided to convene the congress. Whatever the case, it is clear that the deteriorating external environment will affect what is discussed at the 7th KWP Congress and what is achieved there.

What could Kim Jong-un�fs �gresplendent blueprint�h be?

Now, let's take a closer look at the five kinds of business that the KWP rules state will take place at the congress.

First is "business harmonization." This is something akin to a performance evaluation. Without exception, the person who gave the business harmonization reports during the first six KWP Congresses was Kim Il-sung, who was North Korea's supreme leader at the time. Given this precedent, it stands to reason that the business harmonization report at the 7th KWP Congress will be delivered by Kim Jong-un.

Kim will need to evaluate the KWP�fs work in the areas of politics, the economy, South Korean affairs and foreign affairs during the past 36 years when the congress could not be held and derive from this a new vision and policy directions. During the previous congress, Kim Il-sung delivered a business harmonization report that lasted for no less than five hours.

The business harmonization report, which will be delivered on the first or seconds day of the congress, is the heart of the congress. The report sets the tone for the content and direction of the rest of the congress.

The entire idea of business harmonization presumes that the KWP has some achievements to review. This is why previous North Korean leader Kim Jong-il (who died in 2011) was unable to convene a party congress even once during his rule, which lasted for more than a decade.

A substantial portion of Kim Jong-il's time in power overlapped with the collapse of the remaining socialist states and the "arduous march," referring to a time of deadly shortages in food and energy in the 1990s. During this time, Kim responded to the crisis with the Songun policy, meaning "military first," an emergency governance strategy in which the National Defense Commission took priority to the KWP.

In his New Year's address this year, Kim Jong-un predicted that "a resplendent blueprint will be unfurled at the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers' Party." While we will have to wait and see what this "resplendent blueprint" is, at least two predictions can be made: namely, that Kim will emphasize the "two-track" dual approach of building both the economy and nuclear weapons and that he will herald party leadership that has been strengthened in every way. Logically speaking, the North Korean constitution's statement that the party is to lead the state implies that strengthening the party's leadership will allow the party, and consequently the state, to perform their proper functions.

How to develop the economy

Second, one of the most crucial policy issues for the congress concerns economic development strategy. Not only does the preamble to the party regulations list �gconstant improvement of the people�fs lives�h as the �gparamount principle of party activity,�h but Kim Jong-un also declared in his 2016 New Year�fs address that the �gpeople�fs livelihood issue�h was �gnumber one among myriad state affairs.�h

The third, fourth, and fifth party congresses all saw the presentation of medium-term economic plans: the Third New Economic Development Five-Year Plan, Fourth People�fs Economic Development Seven-Year Plan, and Fifth People�fs Economic Development Six-Year Plan. For the sixth, a somewhat abstract framework of �gTen Predicted Goals for Building a Socialist Economy�h was offered instead of a medium-term plan. With the seventh congress taking place amid heavy sanctions from the international community, a medium-term economic plan is unlikely to be presented there.

Another focus of interest is whether Kim moves to make official two systems introduced since he came to power: the �gnew economic management system�h introduced on Jan. 28, 2012, and the �gsocialist corporate responsibility management system�h - often called the �gNorth Korean-style economic management approach�h - introduced on May 30, 2014. Noting the stronger autonomy, responsibility, and incentives for local economic units, experts have described both as �gseedlings�h for a North Korean approach to economic reform.

But hanging too many hopes on them appears unwise. Symptomatic of this is the �g70-day battle�h declared at a meeting of the KWP Central Committee�fs political bureau sometime around Feb. 23. The name is reminiscent of another 70-day battle in 1974, which brought the first application of the �gspeed battle�h strategy of mass movement-based economic development introduced by Kim�fs father, Kim Jong-il. Speed campaigns aimed at achieving results in a specific number of days have typically met - and even exceeded - goals through the channeling of human and material resources over a set period of time. But they have also resulted in serious distortions in resource distribution, undermining the economy�fs base. Adopting the slogan of �gMallima speed�h - the times faster than the �gChollima speed�h of the 1950s, named after a mythical winged horse capable of galloping 400 km in a single day - the 70-day battle is a kind of morphine, with a focus squarely on short-term results. For this reason, the seventh KWP congress is unlikely to produce any economic development strategy of note. And because of the heavy sanctions from the international community, any particular reference to external economic openness is also unlikely.

Any concrete proposals for external relations?

In terms of South Korean relations, Pyongyang will need to follow Kim�fs call in the New Year�fs address to �gshow a willingness to respect and faithfully implement the three main principles of reunification of the fatherland [autonomy, peace, and solidarity of the Korean people, as named in the July 4 Joint Statement], the June 15 Joint Declaration, and the October 4 Summit Statement.�h

But the likelihood of any new dialogue proposals to South Korean President Park Geun-hye appear slim. While the prospects are similarly low, North may move beyond bland generalities about the importance of �gpeace,�h or a peaceful outside environment, and presents concrete suggestions in terms of external relations.

A third area concerns revisions or additions to the party rules, which typically take place in the later stages of congresses. Here, two specific areas require attention. In 2012, North Korea amended its Constitution to identify itself as a �gnuclear state,�h and in 2013 it formally adopted a KWP strategic course of parallel economic and nuclear development at a Mar. 31 Central Committee plenary meeting and enacted its Nuclearization Law at an Apr. 1 Supreme People�fs Assembly session. Given the trend, it could amend its party regulations to specify itself as a �gnuclear state�h there as well. A second question concerns possible revision to prevision in the regulations�f preamble regarding revolution in the South, which currently state that the KWP�fs �gimmediate task . . . lies in performing the duty of revolution for democracy and liberation of the people at the national scale.�h Doing so would hold greater practical significance than the presentation of a new reunification plan - another focus of attention for the conference. Also remaining to be seen is the influence of new perceptions on inter-Korean relations as expressed in the North�fs announcement of a separate time zone for Pyongyang, which created a 30-minute time difference between South and North as of Aug. 15, 2015, and appeared geared more two setting the two sides apart than strengthening commonalities.

Possible changes to KWP organization and power structure

A fourth matter involves possible changes to the KWP organization and power structure. Given the way the party has operated since Kim came to power, the Central Committee�fs politburo is expected to enjoy a stronger role. A changing of the generational guard to bolster the regime is expected to back this up, with a mixture of older and newer faces.

Ultimately, all the events of the seventh KWP congress will be geared toward firmly establishing a system of unitary party leadership centering on Kim Jong-un. Just as the preamble to the party regulations declares the KWP to be �gparty of Kim Il-sungism and Kim Jong-ilism, with Kim Il-sungism and Kim Jong-ilism as its only guiding philosophies,�h so the KWP, as the guiding force in the Democratic People�fs Republic of Korea, requires the leadership of a single person - known as the �gbrain of the revolution.�h Like grandfather Kim Il-sung, called the �geternal President�h in the Constitution�fs preamble, and father Kim Jong-il, called the �geternal National Defense Commission Chairman�h in the same preamble and the �geternal General Secretary�h in the preamble to the KWP regulations, Kim - who was already declared the �gsun in the sky�h in a Feb. 23 Supreme Command statement, is expected to become that leader at the seventh congress. At the same time, he is unlikely to ascend to the position of president, general secretary, or NDC chairman, where he would be forever working alongside his departed grandfather and father.

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter
Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/...s-against-us-troops-unsubstantiated/83749454/

UN says North Korea accusations against U.S. troops 'unsubstantiated'

Hyung-Jin Kim, The Associated Press 12:56 p.m. EDT April 30, 2016

SEOUL, South Korea — The American-led U.N. command on Saturday dismissed as unsubstantiated accusations from North Korea that U.S. troops at a border village tried to provoke its frontline troops with "disgusting acts."

A North Korean military statement Friday warned U.S. soldiers to stop what it called "hooliganism" at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom or they'll meet a "dog's death any time and any place."

It said U.S. troops pointed their fingers at North Korean soldiers and made strange noises and unspecified "disgusting" facial expressions. It also said that American troops encouraged South Korean soldiers to aim their guns at the North.

A statement from Christopher Bush, a spokesman for the U.N. command, said they looked into the allegations and determined they were unsubstantiated.


MILITARYTIMES
North Korea accuses U.S. soldiers of provoking border troops


North Korea occasionally accuses South Korean and U.S. troops of trying to provoke its border troops and vice versa. After North Korea's first nuclear bomb test in 2006, the U.S. accused North Korean troops of spitting across the border's demarcation line, making throat-slashing hand gestures and flashing their middle fingers.

The latest North Korean accusation came a day after South Korean and U.S. officials said two suspected medium-range missile launches by North Korea ended in failure. In recent weeks, North Korea fired a barrage of missiles and artillery shells into the sea in an apparent response to annual South Korea-U.S. military drills that ended Saturday.

About 28,000 American troops are deployed in South Korea to deter potential aggression from North Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in an armistice and not a peace treaty.


MILITARYTIMES
China UN ambassador: North Korean proposal to halt nuclear program merits study


Panmunjom, located inside the 4-kilometer- (2.5-mile-) wide Demilitarized Zone that bisects the Korean Peninsula, is where the 1953 armistice was signed. It remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints, but Panmunjom — jointly overseen by North Korea and the American-led U.N. Command — is also a popular tourist spot drawing visitors on both sides.

Visitors from the southern side are often told by tour guides to be extremely careful about what gestures they make so as not to antagonize the nearby North Korean soldiers.

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/04/punggye043016/

Update on North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site

By 38 North
30 April 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr.

Recent commercial satellite imagery from April 28 shows signs of continued low-level activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Based on available evidence, it is not possible to determine whether these activities are related to continued maintenance or reflect that Pyongyang has completed test preparations and a detonation is imminent. It is worth noting that the January 2016 nuclear test demonstrated that North Korea has the ability to slow-roll test preparations relatively unnoticed and is able to conduct a new test with little or no warning.

Imagery indicates that there are two possible vehicles or trailers as well as a few mining carts visible at the North Portal. The spoil piles at both the North and West Portals appear to have undergone some recent activity but it is not possible using current imagery to determine whether this is maintenance on the mine rail system or the depositing of small amounts of fresh spoil. No personnel are observed at either location.

Figure 1. Vehicle and carts seen at the North Portal.

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Figure 2. Activity seen at the North and West Portal spoil piles.

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There is no apparent activity observed at the South Portal.

Figure 3. No activity at the South Portal.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
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In the Main Support Area, while there are no vehicles present, personnel are visible. From their placement and distribution it appears they may be playing a game of soccer.

Figure 4. Group of personnel seen in the Main Support Area.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr.

Recent commercial satellite imagery from April 28 shows signs of continued low-level activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Based on available evidence, it is not possible to determine whether these activities are related to continued maintenance or reflect that Pyongyang has completed test preparations and a detonation is imminent. It is worth noting that the January 2016 nuclear test demonstrated that North Korea has the ability to slow-roll test preparations relatively unnoticed and is able to conduct a new test with little or no warning.

Imagery indicates that there are two possible vehicles or trailers as well as a few mining carts visible at the North Portal. The spoil piles at both the North and West Portals appear to have undergone some recent activity but it is not possible using current imagery to determine whether this is maintenance on the mine rail system or the depositing of small amounts of fresh spoil. No personnel are observed at either location.

Figure 1. Vehicle and carts seen at the North Portal.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Figure 2. Activity seen at the North and West Portal spoil piles.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

There is no apparent activity observed at the South Portal.

Figure 3. No activity at the South Portal.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

In the Main Support Area, while there are no vehicles present, personnel are visible. From their placement and distribution it appears they may be playing a game of soccer.

Figure 4. Group of personnel seen in the Main Support Area.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Found in section: Satellite Imagery

Found in section: Satellite Imagery

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/...s-nuclear-attack-capabilities-20160501-goj9tn

May 1 2016 at 2:01 PM
Updated May 1 2016 at 2:06 PM

North Korea vows to rapidly advance its nuclear attack capabilities
by Cynthia Kim

North Korea vowed to make rapid advancements on nuclear attack capabilities if South Korea and the US continue with joint military drills, with the warning coming days before predictions that the nation may conduct its fifth nuclear test for the Worker's Party Congress on May 6.

"Our capability to make nuclear attacks will make fast advancement every time enemies conduct war exercises," the regime's official news agency reported, citing an unidentified spokesman at its foreign ministry. North Korea called a joint military drill between South Korea and the US "the worst military provocation".

The statement came after North Korea's failed attempts to fire missiles this week, and days before Kim Jong Un's regime is scheduled to hold its first ruling party congress in decades. South Korean President Park Geun Hye said Pyongyang has completed preparations to conduct its fifth nuclear test and vowed to seek stronger sanctions against North Korea if it conducts the test.

North Korea have offered to halt its nuclear test if the US and South Korea would suspend defensive drills. US President Barack Obama dismissed the proposal.

Bloomberg

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1784813

A coronation for North Korea's Kim Jong-Un

Posted on 1 May 2016 - 03:44pm

AFTER four years of top-level reshuffles, purges and executions, Kim Jong-Un will formally cement his unassailable status as North Korea's supreme leader at a landmark ruling party congress this week.

The first gathering of its kind for nearly 40 years is really a coronation of sorts – recognising the young 33-year-old leader as the legitimate inheritor of the dynastic dictatorship started by his grandfather Kim Il-Sung and passed down through his late father Kim Jong-Il.

"This congress means everything for Kim Jong-Un," said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

"It is the most public, historic setting in which he can demonstrate that he is fully in charge, and that everyone follows his orders," Delury said.

"Nominally, it's for the party, but really this congress is for Kim," he added.

Kim wasn't even born when the last congress was held in 1980 to crown his father as the heir apparent to founding leader Kim Il-Sung.

When his own turn came, following the death of Kim Jong-Il in December 2011, there were numerous doubters who suggested the Swiss finishing school graduate lacked the survival skills needed for the Machiavellian world of North Korean power politics.

But he proved them wrong, purging the party, government and powerful military of those seen as disloyal, and displaying a ruthless streak that notably led to the execution of his powerful uncle, and one-time political mentor, Jang Song-Thaek.

Policy pivot

He also adjusted his father's "songun", or military first policy, to a "byungjin" policy of pursuing nuclear weapons in tandem with economic development.

The nuclear half of that strategy has dominated the run-up to the party congress, starting with a fourth nuclear test in January that was followed by a long-range rocket launch and a flurry of other missile and weapons tests.

"The objective of all that was clear from the start," said Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"It was a race to have a credible nuclear deterrent in place, as a crowning achievement, before the congress opens," Cha said.

But there was an embarrassing stumble in the home straight, with the failure in recent weeks of three separate efforts to test fire a powerful, new mid-range ballistic missile capable of striking US bases on the Pacific island of Guam.

Nuclear test prologue

One final act might still play out before the party gathering begins on May 6, with many predicting a fifth nuclear test to underline the North's status as a genuine nuclear power.

Then, once the congress gets underway, comes the question of what, beyond Kim's leadership qualities, the gathering will seek to spotlight.

The optimist's scenario is that, with a confirmed nuclear deterrent in the bag, Kim will announce that the North's security is ensured and the focus can now switch to the other half of his "byungjin" strategy – economic development.

"The key is not whether such a strong North Korean deterrent force is a reality, not even whether Kim believes it, but whether he will set out this position as the philosophical basis for a new direction in policy," said Robert Carlin, a visiting scholar at the Centre for International Security and Cooperation in California.

In his very first public address, at a military parade in April 2012, Kim had said he was determined that North Koreans would "never have to tighten their belts again".

The need to raise living standards has been a constant refrain of his annual New Year addresses, although analysts note that they have been largely devoid of any specific policy initiatives.

So while the party congress does provide the platform for a genuine policy shift, it can just as easily become a stage for tired, self-congratulatory rhetoric that offers little in the way of change.

New, young leaders?

Whatever the tone, the content of the speeches, especially Kim's keynote address, will be closely scrutinised as will any personnel changes, with analysts looking for a younger crop of officials to take over leadership positions.

The North's chief diplomatic ally, China, which has become increasingly frustrated with Pyongyang's refusal to restrain its nuclear ambitions, will be among the closest observers.

"Any North Korean rhetorical emphasis on living standards and peaceful development over nuclear chest-thumping and threats ... will be interpreted by Chinese state media as evidence that things are moderating," said Adam Cathcart, a University of Leeds specialist on China-North Korea ties.

"There may also be more willingness to work with newly-promoted officials who are somewhat younger and presumably more pragmatic," Cathcart said. — AFP

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•Kim Jong-Un says N. Korea has miniaturised nuclear warheads

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/nuclear-deterrence-and-assurance-east-asia-1090

Nuclear Deterrence and Assurance in East Asia

May 3, 2016 | Will Edwards

Among Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s array of foreign policy positions, is the suggestion that South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons for their own security so the U.S. would not have to take responsibility for their protection. While national security experts responded that Trump’s view was nearsighted and would be counterproductive for regional stability, the comment did highlight a longstanding and controversial security question for Japan and South Korea: can they trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and if not, will they develop their own nuclear deterrent? North Korea, the primary reason Japan and South Korea need a deterrent, continues to exacerbate the issue with its continued nuclear and missile tests. For U.S. policy makers, it is important to understand where these countries stand on nuclear weapons and what their capabilities are to create nuclear weapons in order to balance a non-proliferation policy with regional security.

Japan and South Korea display varying degrees of nuclear latency, that is not having nuclear weapons but possessing the technological acumen and resources to quickly create them for national defense. Between the two countries, Japan exhibits a much higher degree of nuclear latency. It has full control of its nuclear fuel cycle, meaning it is not prohibited from producing plutonium, a fissile material, in its civilian reactor; its satellite launch vehicles are large enough to carry a nuclear warhead; and it has a domestic plutonium stockpile amounting to nearly 10 tons, which by one estimate is enough for 1,000 weapons.

South Korea by comparison cannot produce plutonium due to a legal agreement with the U.S., which has become a contentious issue in recent years. Seoul wants full control of its civilian nuclear program, but the U.S. has been loath to revisit the agreement, as it opens the door for South Korea to create its own plutonium stockpile. Seoul also has built a satellite launch vehicle that could double as an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM).

In society and the political sphere, South Korea does not have the same aversion to nuclear weapons as Japan. A survey conducted in South Korea after North Korea’s fourth nuclear test showed that around 55 percent of South Koreans wanted their country to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Conversely, a 2009 poll in Japan showed that only 24 percent of Japanese wanted to repeal the laws that prohibited its development of nuclear weapons.

Sentiments among politicians exhibit a similar trend. While outspoken South Korean politicians, like Chung Mong Joon and Won Yoo Chel, advocate for nuclear weapons to defend against North Korea, the Park administration has shown no inclination towards weapons development. In Japan the discourse is more reserved and equally against weapons development. A former Japanese cabinet member remarked that “[Japan] will not seek to produce nuclear weapons, but possessing advanced technology and plutonium shows other nations that our country can produce them whenever it wants. This is tantamount to a certain measure of deterrent power."

For U.S policymakers, the technical abilities and domestic conditions need to be placed in context in order to identify shifts towards nuclear proliferation. Former chief of analysis for the CIA Nonproliferation Center, Torrey Froscher, made clear to The Cipher Brief that “there is no reason to suspect that [either country] is evading its obligation to forgo nuclear weapons,” but the latent capacity of either country cannot be ignored. Thomas Cynkin, a former U.S. diplomat in Japan added that close observation of political and technological developments is important to keeping abreast of any changes in how either country views a homegrown nuclear weapons program.

Both Froscher and Cynkin agree that U.S. interest and involvement in regional security are essential to sustaining non-proliferation in East Asia. An important lesson from the Cold War that still underpins strategic thought on nuclear weapons was that a nuclear deterrent is ineffective without a credible show of intent. Just as deterrence without intent is an ineffective display to one’s enemies, assurance without resolve is an ineffective gesture to one’s allies. Therefore, the U.S. cannot afford to allow Tokyo or Seoul to doubt its nuclear umbrella. In that regard, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert was quick to shoot down Trump’s assertion that South Korea takes care of its own security by developing nuclear weapons. Lippert called the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea “one of the premier military alliances in the world.” Maintaining the trust implicit in Lippert’s message could be the U.S.’s strongest hedge against nuclear proliferation in East Asia.

Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-congress-idUSKCN0XU06K

World | Tue May 3, 2016 8:24am EDT
Related: World, South Korea, North Korea

North Korea capital gears up for congress; South fears nuclear test

PYONGYANG | By James Pearson


North Korea's rain-soaked capital was festooned on Tuesday with banners celebrating leader Kim Jong Un ahead of a ruling party congress, as rival South Korea expressed concern that Pyongyang could conduct a nuclear test before or during the rare event.

Flower pots lined balconies along streets that have been tidied as part of a 70-day campaign for the first Workers' Party congress in 36 years, which starts on Friday.

At the congress, Kim is expected to declare isolated North Korea a nuclear weapons state and formally adopt his "Byongjin" policy to push simultaneously for economic development and nuclear capability.


It follows Kim's father's Songun, or "military first," policy and his grandfather's Juche, the North's home-grown founding ideology that combines Marxism and extreme nationalism.

"Let's uphold Great Comrade Kim Jong Un's Songun revolutionary leadership with patriotism!," one banner read.

Isolated North Korea has conducted a series of weapons tests, including three failed launches of an intermediate-range missile, in the run-up to the Workers' Party congress.

One banner in Pyongyang extolled a February rocket launch that put a satellite in space. Overseas, however, the launch drew condemnation as a ballistic missile test in disguise.

Kim has aggressively pursued nuclear weapons and could be looking to a successful fifth test this week as a crowning achievement, foreign analysts have said. South Korean Defence Minister Han Min-koo said Pyongyang's nuclear test may come before or around the time of the opening of the congress.

"North Korea's goal is to be internationally recognized as a nuclear weapons state," Han told a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday. "We believe its nuclear capability is advancing."

North Korea has invited foreign media to cover the congress, although journalists' movements are closely managed and much of the country and its people remain off-limits to outsiders.

Pyongyang citizens "fervently welcomed participants of the congress who have given all their patriotic passion ... as a new generation of true warriors of Juche revolution under the leadership of dear comrade Kim Jong Un," North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said on Tuesday.

Security has been stepped up ahead of the congress.

The Daily NK, a website run by defectors with sources in North Korea, said that since mid-April, free movement in and out of the capital had been stopped and security personnel summoned from the provinces to step up domestic surveillance.


FIRST SINCE 1980

The party congress is the first since 1980, before the 33-year-old Kim was born. His father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, who died in December 2011, never held one.

While some past party congresses featured representatives from countries the North has ties with, South Korean officials have said they were not aware of invitations sent to official foreign guests for the upcoming event.

North Korea has become increasingly isolated over its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and was hit with tightened U.N. Security Council sanctions in March that were backed by its chief ally, China, in response to a January nuclear test.

Pyongyang has conducted a flurry of missile and other weapons tests in the run-up to the congress, although not all have been successful. It made three attempts last month of what was believed to be its intermediate-range Musudan missile, all of which failed, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

The congress is expected to last four or five days, South Korean government officials and experts said. Kim may decide to take on the post of party General Secretary, a position held by his late father, elevating himself from First Secretary.

"It is now his era, and the elders have passed away, and the idea will be that if he remains first secretary, then he might think he won't get enough respect because of that," said An Chan-il, former North Korean military official who now heads a think tank in Seoul.


(Additional reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Editing by Tony Munroe and Raju Gopalakrishnan)


More from Reuters

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•U.S. tells Pakistan it will have to fund F-16s itself |2 May

•Pakistan raps Trump over vow to free doctor who helped track bin Laden |2 May

•Russia warns U.S. over naval incident as NATO tensions | 21 April

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-un-idUSKCN0XU2BL

World | Tue May 3, 2016 5:53pm EDT
Related: World

Russia delays U.N. council condemnation of North Korea missile tests

UNITED NATIONS | By Michelle Nichols

A United Nations Security Council condemnation of North Korea's latest missile tests has been delayed by Russian amendments to a statement that had been agreed by the remaining 14 members, including Pyongyang's ally China, diplomats said on Tuesday.

North Korea test-fired what appeared to be two intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, but both failed. China's U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi, president of the U.N. Security Council last month, said the body was working on a response.

"The Security Council needs to respond swiftly; so we don't understand why Russia is blocking while all other council members, including China, which borders DPRK (North Korea), can agree," Britain's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Peter Wilson said.

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said on Monday that Moscow had added "some very valuable input" to the draft council statement that the United States was considering "unhappily."

"We need to call a spade a spade and we think that asking for the interested parties to scale down their military activity in the region is very important," Churkin said, referring to moves by the United States and South Korea.

Russia and China on Friday called on the United States not to install a new anti-missile system in South Korea, after Washington said it was in talks with Seoul following North Korea's nuclear arms and missile tests.

The North routinely threatens to destroy South Korea and the United States.

Last week's missile tests are the latest in a string of demonstrations of military might that began in January with North Korea's fourth nuclear test and included the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

"North Korea is clearly lashing out in dangerous and provocative ways and every member of the Security Council ... is concerned about this except evidently Russia," said a council diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Incredibly Russia proposed amendments that were not aimed at the DPRK (North Korea) but rather at countries seeking to protect themselves from this threat," said the diplomat.

North Korea's tests have increased tension on the Korean peninsula. North and South Korea remain technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, rather than a treaty.

In March, the U.N. Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on North Korea to starve it of money for its nuclear weapons program.


(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by James Dalgleish)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://38north.org/2016/05/sinpo050316/

North Korea’s Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile: Continued Progress at the Sinpo South Shipyard

By 38 North
03 May 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Summary

North Korea’s recent successful test launch of another Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) has reinforced ongoing concerns regarding the continuing development of the missile system and the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine.

Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard indicates that North Korea is continuing to actively pursue development of both programs. Specifically:
Imagery of the boat basin not only shows post-launch (maintenance) activity at the submarine but also suggests that the program may be moving towards a more advanced stage of development where the need for a submersible test stand barge has diminished. That conclusion appears to be reinforced by recent test launches from the submarine itself rather than the barge.
The refurbishment activity at the submarine construction halls is externally complete and the extend ramp, where new boats are launched, appears almost finished. When complete, the North will be able to build and launch submarines much larger than the GORAE-class—including a new class of ballistic missile submarines.

While North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program is making progress, these activities appear in line with previous estimates that the first ballistic missile submarine and operational missiles are unlikely to become operational before 2020.

Successful Test of Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile

On the afternoon of April 23, North Korea’s experimental GORAE-class submarine, designed to carry ballistic missiles, left its home port and cruised just a short distance into the East Sea to a point immediately off the coast. At approximately 6:30 PM, the boat conducted a successful test launch of the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The missile travelled approximately 30 km before landing in the East Sea. The test, which follows what many sources believe was an aborted test launch a few weeks earlier, was probably intended to be limited focusing upon the submarine’s launch systems, missile ignition sequence and initial guidance operations rather than a full operational test. It is likely that there will be additional tests from the submarine this year as the North develops experience and builds toward a full-range operational test.

Post-Launch Activity at the Boat Basin

Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard taken six days after the successful test shows post-launch activity (e.g., inspection, maintenance and resupply) at the submarine. Alongside the boat is, what appears to be, a large shipping container that measures approximately 10 meters by 1.5 meters. This size is generally consistent with a missile the size of the Bukkeukseong-1. Its size and location as well as the presence of a heavy-duty crane suggest that the container may be intended to carry the missile.

Figure 1. Post-launch activity at the secure boat basin at Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016.

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Also present in the secure boat basin are the submersible missile test stand barge and two support vessels. The submersible barge has been moved from its normal position along the main dock immediately south of the submarine to the north along a secondary dock. This shift in location suggests that the SLBM program may be moving towards a more advanced stage of development where the need for a submersible test stand barge has diminished. That conclusion appears to be reinforced by recent test launches from the submarine itself rather than the barge.

A small support vessel not present in previous imagery is now visible and is docked at the north end of the secure boat basin. This vessel may be used to tow the submersible test stand barge and support the submarine during ejection tests.

Refurbishment of Construction Halls Externally Complete

Imagery indicates that the refurbishment activity at the construction halls, 400 meters to the south of the boat basin, appears to be externally complete. Construction of the expanded ramp in front of the largest hall is in its final stages. A barge appears in front of the way probably working on the underwater rails or clearing obstacles. Once the refurbishment program is finished, the North will be able to build submarines much larger than the GORAE-class—including a new class of ballistic missile submarines.

Figure 2. Construction halls appear externally complete at the Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016. (See insert for note on mother ship.)

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Vertical Test Stand Inactive

There is little activity at the vertical test stand located approximately 1,100 meters southwest of the secure boat basin used in the past by the ballistic missile submarine programs for launch tube and “pop-up” testing. The removable tower used to support tests remains in place allowing the North to more quickly conduct a “pop-up” or ejection test with little prior indications. A small vehicle is present on the stand, although no specific significance can be attached to this at present.

Figure 3. Test Stand at the Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016.

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[Housecarl]

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http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/what-to-expect-from-a-rare-north-korean-gathering.html

What to expect from a rare North Korean gathering

The 30-something North Korean ruler wants all eyes on him

Heesun Wee | @heesunwee
3 Hours Ago

Following a series of failed missile tests and a claim of a hydrogen bomb during the past few months, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is preparing his nation for an historic political gathering beginning Friday.

Known as the Congress of the Workers' Party, the last such gathering was in 1980 to present Kim's father, then-heir apparent Kim Jong Il.


"This party congress is all about him"
-Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp.


Friday's event in one of the world's most secretive nations will be only the seventh party congress in the country's history. And regime changes could be unveiled, according to North Korea watchers. In particular, there could be announcements related to a broad generational shift to younger government officials and ruling elites.

"He wants to go into this congress and get rid of a lot of older generation people, and replace them with younger people," said Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp. "What it appears that he's trying to do is to prove that he's in power, that's he's capable, that youth can now take this country to new heights."


Kim himself is believed to be his early 30s, and has been in charge since after the death of his father in late 2011.


And if a revolving door of top leaders is any indication since Kim's ascension, it seems lonely at the top — especially in a place like North Korea.

Kim, so far, doesn't appear to have the equivalent of a deputy or trusted number two man. In contrast, his late father's inner circle had included Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Un's late uncle who was executed in 2103. Jang had unique access in the ruling elite and was a go-between with Chinese leadership. He also ran a vast, multinational ring of state trading companies that generated income for the North. He was the equivalent of an entrepreneurial superstar and prince maker, according to experts.

Jang's execution eliminated, arguably, the most influential senior party official remaining from Kim's father's era, according to a 2013-14 report from the Pentagon to Congress.


Young leader Kim, meanwhile, has been cleaning house and reshuffling top brass since taking over the helm.

"He's up to now five defense ministers he has replaced in four years. That's an incredible pace," said Bennett. "His dad replaced three in 17 years. And two of them died of old age."



North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches a firing contest of the KPA artillery units at an undisclosed location in a photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency in Pyongyang on Jan. 5, 2016.
N. Korean Kim stirs crisis: Can he handle blowback?


And like any rogue dictator wary of loyalty and broad economic stability, cracking down on activity is an effective strategy.

Citing a South Korean official, North Korea apparently has banned weddings and funerals to tighten security for the party congress, The Sunday Times reported.

"The party congress, I would argue, is a huge, big, major deal. And he [Kim] doesn't want weddings getting in the way of that. He doesn't want people celebrating something else," Bennett said. "The ban on marriages and those kinds of things, as I understand it, it's just this week that that's really occurring. But he wants the focus on him. This party congress is all about him."

Kim is likely feeling the heat after experts disputed the North's claims of a hydrogen bomb test earlier this year. But still there are ongoing concerns. Could Kim be under pressure to attempt a second H-bomb test and fuel the possibility of a nuclear catastrophe?



People buy inflatable clappers before a football match at the Kim Il Sung Stadium in Pyongyang October 8, 2015.
How Kim Jong Un bankrolls his nuclear ambitions


Meanwhile, improvement to the North Korean economy and promises to raise the standard of living have yet to materialize.

In 2013-2014, the regime expanded the number of economic development zones for foreign investors from five to 25. But the initiative remains in its infancy, according to the CIA. Firm political control remains the priority.

Kim also faces toughened United Nations sanctions on the North, though the impact will take time. And it's unclear to what extent China, North Korea's strongest ally, will cooperate with those intensified sanctions.

Being a nuclear-weapons power is a priority for the North.

The ruling elite bankrolls its nuclear ambitions through varied sources of income including exported minerals and other commodities. Other sources of cash flow include exported North Korean slave labor to China and as far away as Europe, according to United Nations documents, congressional testimony and research by North Korea experts.

Meanwhile, North Korean per capita GDP in 2013 was about $1,800, according to the CIA Factbook. Economic statistics suggest that by 2005, North Korean GDP overall had retreated to late-1980s levels, according to experts. In contrast, South Korean per capita GDP has soared from around $1,200 in the early 1960s to more than $22,000 today.


The regime still cannot feed its own people without outside food aid. North Koreans rely on massive black markets in big cities and the countryside to buy rice, produce, beer and school supplies — often with hard Chinese currency. These markets essentially are tolerated by the government and have become permanent fixtures in the economy.

And Kim already has warned of potential economic difficulty akin to the 1990s, which was marked by widespread famine.

"He's announced that they could go into another period of serious difficulty like in the '90s," Bennett said. "And so he is worried apparently, and trying to prep the people to recognize this problem could be developing."



Passengers board the train at an underground railway station located in Pyongyang, North Korea.
The kids bringing down North Korea's regime


Kim, meanwhile, continues to impose his will among some 25 million North Koreans.

The number of North Koreans defecting to South Korea has declined in the last four years. Illustrative of the crackdown along the porous North Korean-Chinese border, more than 1,510 North Korean refugees entered the South in 2013, according to the latest South Korean government data. In 2008, around 2,800 refugees entered the South — a roughly 46 percent decline.

And those refugees have included older escapees. "The impression I get is that the number of senior defectors that have occurred has really ramped up in the last year or so," said Bennett.

Looking to the party congress and beyond, there's likely to be some degree of generational change. But how radical remains to be seen.

"What it will illustrate, once we see what he does, is who is he scared of. Who is he really concerned about?" Bennett said. "How do his changes potentially solve his insecurities?"

Heesun Wee

Features editor, CNBC.com

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-watching-north-korea-workers-party-congress/3317965.html

US Watching as North Korea Opens Biggest Political Meeting in Decades

Nike Ching
Last updated on: May 06, 2016 2:24 AM

STATE DEPARTMENT — North Korea has opened one of its biggest political meetings in 36 years, as the 7th Workers' Party Congress began meeting Friday in Pyongyang.

However, foreign journalists who traveled to Pyongyang for the event were not immediately allowed inside.

The United States is in close consultation with its Asian allies to monitor the situation on the Korean Peninsula during the high-level meeting of party representatives, which is expected to result in a reshuffling of some top officials.

North Korea is scheduled to have its 7th Workers' Party Congress on Friday. It's a high-level meeting of party representatives and is expected to result in a reshuffling of some top officials.

Washington also is anticipating the isolated regime may take this occasion to launch a missile or conduct a nuclear test.

"We will continue to look at ways we can apply and increase pressures on them, at the same time as we ensure that the security of the peninsula is kept ironclad," said State Department spokesman Mark Toner on Thursday.

Pyongyang has carried out a few ballistic missile tests in recent months, as well as its fourth nuclear test in January. Toner said the United States would welcome any signs of de-escalation by the North Korean regime.

The U.S. Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, arrived in Seoul earlier this week. He met with South Korea's Defense Minister, Han Min-koo, and discussed security issues, according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency.

The possibility of another nuclear test from North Korea was also discussed.

"Kim Jong Un will need to deliver a report that summarizes the Korean Workers' Party's accomplishments since the last congress in 1980 and present new policy directions. As for the new policy directions, I expect him to highlight the Byungjin line," James Person of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington told VOA on Thursday.

The "Byungjin line" is the policy of the simultaneous development of the nuclear program and the consumer goods industries.

But Person does not expect any new major policy directions in economic development because North Korea's Workers' Party Congress meetings are usually "scripted affairs" and typically do not offer major policy announcements.

While anticipating more provocations from North Korea, including a fifth nuclear test, senior U.S. officials have warned of "additional steps" to punish Pyongyang and to defend Washington and its allies.

"Despite all the saber-rattling, I don't think the North [Korea] is under any illusions about the consequences of attack," Assistant Secretary of the State Daniel Russel said Tuesday at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Washington has begun formal discussion with Seoul on potentially deploying a top missile defense system in South Korea, the so-called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD.

Related Articles

What to Expect: North Korea's 7th Workers' Party Congress
Top US Official: Washington Seeking THAAD Dialogue With Beijing
North Korea Set to Celebrate Kim Jong Un’s Era

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...-will-be-heard-unlike-his-more-elusive-father

Politics & Policy

This Weekend, Kim Jong Un Will Be Heard, Unlike His More Elusive Father

May 6, 2016·7:55 AM ET
Elise Hu

North Korea's highest political body, the Workers' Party Congress, is convening Friday for the first time in 36 years. Over the course of the next few days, about 3,000 delegates are expected to endorse the leadership of Kim Jong Un, formalizing a rushed transition of power that followed the death of his father, Kim Jong Il.

In one notable way, the elder Kim was very different from his son.


A South Korean army soldier walks by a TV screen showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with superimposed letters that read: "North Korea's nuclear warhead." The warhead was later jokingly dubbed "the disco bomb."

Parallels

As North Korea Acts Out, A Search For Kim Jong Un's Motives

"[Kim Jong Il] was widely quoted saying that he felt it was best to keep the enemy in the dark. The less he was out there, the less his enemies would have to use against him," says Jean Lee, an American journalist who opened the Associated Press' Pyongyang bureau. Much of her time in Pyongyang overlapped with the final years of the late Kim's rule.

"He never gave a public speech," Lee says. "There are no recordings of a public speech."

Despite all the propaganda touting Kim's achievements, and even video showing him speaking to the public, the sound of Kim Jong Il's voice was almost never broadcast. There's only one recorded statement to the masses, according to researcher Curtis Melvin from the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.


Kim Jong Il's one recorded public statement.

YouTube

"He uttered one line at a parade, 'Long live the Korean people's army,'" Melvin says. "And that's it."

South Korean media did once capture Kim's voice while he made a joke about buckwheat noodles during a summit with the South Korean president. But no public speeches.

Why is Kim Jong Il's voice so hard to find? He was an omnipresent dictator, after all.

"There's all sorts of theories about this, I can't tell you why," offers Melvin. "But a lot of people said he just didn't like the attention or didn't like being scrutinized so much."

That's what made journalist Lee's discovery a few years ago at a museum in northern North Korea so surprising.

"Wandering off in a museum by myself when I spotted this Toshiba TV monitor, with a picture of a painting and a caption saying, 'Kim Jong Un giving a speech on juche ideology,'" Lee says. "Juche is their philosophy of self-reliance — so of course I pressed the play button on the stand and lo and behold, there was a voice, so I did tape a little bit of that."

In Lee's clips, Kim is indeed heard.

"What we're doing now is trying to find the exact speech," she says. "Exactly where and when he gave these speeches."

Lee and her researchers believe it was given in 1974 or in 1980. 1980 is historically important, because 1980 was the last time North Korea held a Party Congress.

Now, Pyongyang is hosting another, in which thousands of the regime's most trusted insiders are meeting. Kim's son, Kim Jong Un, who wasn't even born when the last Congress was held, is expected to cement his authority. To do so, Curtis Melvin says he'll be heard.


The North Korea Information Center in Seoul, South Korea, holds a vast collection of publications, videos and everyday items from the North. Here, North Korea Woman magazine features the classic propaganda art often seen in North Korea.

Parallels

In The Heart Of Seoul, A Trove Of North Korean Propaganda

"He's never been shy to stand in front of people and use his voice," Melvin says.

A stark contrast to his father. The younger Kim's public persona is being shaped to appear a lot more like his grandfather — North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, who was known as a gregarious man who mixed often with the people.

"A lot of North Koreans are still nostalgic about the Kim Il Sung era and Kim Jong Un has tried to model himself on his grandfather rather than his father," Melvin says.

Callbacks to the eldest Kim may be wise, Lee says.

"They want to go back to a happier time in their history. And associate Kim Jong Un with that happier time in their history."

Haeryun Kang contributed to this story.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-issues-nuclear-deterrent-warning-start-landmark-congress-456429

World

Fears Rise of North Korea Nuclear Test as Party Congress Starts

By Jack Moore On 5/6/16 at 4:29 AM
Video

North Korea warned on Friday that it would counter the threat of nuclear weapons with its own nuclear arms in the face of U.S. hostility, at the start of a landmark congress to confirm the total power of leader Kim Jong-un.

The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK), the body charged with handling relations with South Korea, said that the U.S. was behind the nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula.


The CPRK said in a statement that Pyongyang would only continue its attempt to develop a nuclear arsenal unless Washington halts its policy of intimidation towards the country, the South Korean news site the Korea Herald reported.

The country’s KCNA state news agency also hailed “miraculous results” and “the greatest gifts” of advances in its missile arsenal ahead of the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party, Reuters reported.

On Friday, North Korea held the first party congress for 36 years but foreign journalists were not authorized to enter the event at the House of Culture, draped in large images of Kim Jong-il and North Korean founder Kim Il-sung in the capital.

There are fears that Kim is planning another nuclear test during the congress, which is expected to last four to five days. Nuclear and missile tests since the start of the year have seen the international community, backed by the United Nations, impose the toughest-ever sanctions regime on North Korea.

Chinese delegates were not present at the party congress in a signal of the worsening ties between Beijing, North Korea’s only diplomatic ally, and Pyongyang after the hermit kingdom’s recent ballistic missile and hydrogen bomb tests.

The last party congress, in October 1980, saw Kim Il-sung promote his son Kim Jong-il to his deputy in the party, forging the family hierarchy that would lead to Kim Jong-un’s youthful leadership, taking the helm at age 29.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/05/punggye050616/

New Possible Indication of North Korean Nuclear Test Preparations

By 38 North
06 May 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from May 5 suggests that Pyongyang may be preparing for a nuclear test in the near future. While the test site continues to show low levels of activity, vehicles have been spotted at what is believed to be the Command Center, located approximately 6 kilometers south of the test site. While the historical record is incomplete, it appears that vehicles are not often seen there except during preparations for a test.

North Portal

There is a low level of activity with one truck or several small vehicles parked close together (measuring approximately 4.1 m by 2.2 m) 20 meters west of the portal and what appears to be several people immediately outside the portal. The crates or trailers seen in this area in previous imagery are no longer present.

Figure 1. Truck or several small vehicles identified at the North Portal.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

West Portal

There is no activity of significance (e.g., vehicles, people, etc.). However, the dark area at the top of the spoil pile for the North Portal has grown slightly, suggesting that there has been some recent activity.

Figure 2. Recent activity at the West Portal.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Main Support Area

No significant activity is observed at the Main Support Area. The vehicle seen in imagery from May 2 is no longer present.

Figure 3. No significant activity at the Main Support Area on May 5.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

South Portal

A small object (measuring approximately 2 meters by 1 meter)—likely a trailer or crate—is present nine meters from the portal.

Figure 4. Small object identified close to the South Portal on May 5.


Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Facility Access Road

No vehicles or people were observed moving along the road south of the test facility.

Command Center

Structures located approximately 6 kilometers south of the test facility are believed to be the Command Center for nuclear tests. While the historical record is incomplete, it appears that vehicles are not often seen here except during preparations for a test. No vehicles or people were observed at this facility on imagery from May 2. However, what appears to be four closely-parked vehicles are present on May 5.

Figure 5. Vehicles observed at the Command Center.

Before/After

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...s-nuclear-progress-rare-party-congress-opens/

North Korea leader hails nuclear progress as rare party congress opens

AFP-JIJI, Bloomberg
May 7, 2016

PYONGYANG/SEOUL – Kim Jong Un on Friday opened North Korea’s first ruling party congress for nearly 40 years with a defiant defence of the “magnificent” strides made in the country’s nuclear weapons program.

Hailing the historic test of what North Korea claims was a hydrogen bomb in January, the isolated state’s young leader said it had shown the world it would not be cowed by sanctions or outside pressure.

Dressed in a Western-style suit and tie, Kim’s speech was delivered to thousands of party delegates who had gathered in Pyongyang for the once-in-a-generation conclave.

In particular, he praised the country’s scientists for “creating milestone miracles with the magnificent and exhilarating sound of the first H-bomb of our republic.”

The test and successful long-range rocket launch a month later “clearly demonstrated to the whole world our undefeatable spirit and endless power … in defiance of malicious pressure and sanctions by enemy forces,” he said.

His speech, shown late Friday on state TV, was frequently interrupted by thunderous applause and at last one standing ovation.

Most experts have questioned the North’s H-bomb claim, saying the detected yield from the January test was far too low for a full-fledged thermonuclear device.

There has been widespread speculation that the North might have prepared another nuclear test to coincide with the congress, as a defiant gesture to underscore its nuclear power status.

Washington later urged North Korea to “come out of the wilderness” by “renouncing nuclear weapons and demonstrating a clear commitment to ending their provocative actions and denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.”

The White House warned “the international community is serious about holding North Korea to account for their destabilizing and provocative behavior”.

The 33-year-old Kim, who was not even born when the last Workers’ Party Congress was held in 1980, said the party conclave would prove to be a “new milestone” that would lay out the future direction “of our revolutionary march.”

It is still unclear how many days the congress will last, but the speeches and delegate reports will be scrutinized for any sign of a substantive policy shift, especially on the economic front.

Analysts will be watching for personnel changes as Kim looks to bring in a younger generation of leaders hand-picked for their loyalty.

The state TV announcer said the congress had also discussed the operations of its powerful central military committee, revisions of party rules and elections to central party organs.

Around 130 foreign journalists had been invited to cover the event, but were not allowed inside the congress venue.

The 1980 congress was staged to crown Kim’s father Kim Jong Il as heir apparent to his own father, the North’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung.

The 2016 version was held inside the imposing April 25 Palace in Pyongyang — its stone facade adorned with huge portraits of the two late leaders, along with giant red and gold party banners.

While the agenda had been kept secret, analysts said it amounted to a formal “coronation” of Kim Jong Un as supreme leader and the legitimate inheritor of the Kim family’s dynastic rule which spans almost seven decades.

It was also expected to enshrine as formal party doctrine Kim’s “byungjin” policy of pursuing nuclear weapons in tandem with economic development.

The North Korean capital was immaculately primped and primed for the congress, with national and Workers’ Party flags lining the streets, along with banners carrying slogans such as “Great comrades Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il will always be with us”.

Preparation had involved mobilizing the entire country in a 70-day campaign that New York-based Human Rights Watch denounced as a mass exercise in forced labor.

In his speech, Kim described the campaign as an “extraordinary feat” that had helped the country meet its economic target for the first half of the year.

In the speech, aired in a special broadcast on North Korean state television at 10 p.m. local time, Kim said North Korea has made “the biggest achievements and highest leaps” in all sectors of its economy thanks to a nationwide campaign to boost production this year.

But he offered few details of his economic program and no indication of whether he would continue his state economy’s tiptoeing into the realm of private enterprise.

“He’s implemented some reforms that have paid off and he now feels he has to recalibrate the country’s principle ideology to explain those changes,” Koh Yu Hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Dongguk University, said before the speech. “But drastically changing course won’t be easy because no matter how good change is, you don’t want to make it if it threatens your third-generation dynasty.”

“The unofficial economy, known as “jangmadang,” has shared the burden of feeding the population of 25 million. Kim has allowed greater private investment and let farmers take away more surplus production, according to analysts with contacts in the country.

Having pledged to never let his people “tighten the belts again,” Kim nonetheless shares the paranoia of prior North Korean leaders that markets may be a conduit for outside information and help sow doubts among locals on the legitimacy of his rule.

“At the end of the day, what really matters is to maintain that grip on power,” said Lee Ji Sue, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Myongji University. “Power in North Korea is private property because it’s been inherited and Kim doesn’t want to risk losing it.”

Since Kim took power after the death of his father in December 2011, North Korea has carried out two nuclear tests and two successful space rocket launches that were widely seen as disguised ballistic missile tests.

Even as the international community responded with tougher sanctions, he pressed ahead with a single-minded drive for a credible nuclear deterrent with additional missile and technical tests.

He also demonstrated a ruthless streak, purging the party, government and powerful military of those seen as disloyal, and ordering the execution of his powerful uncle, and one-time political mentor, Jang Song Thaek.

 

[lisa]

DH says that if North Korea has a nuclear test site we should oblige them with a little nuke test of our own on that site...

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/07/asia/north-korea-nuclear-use-sovereignty/

Kim Jong Un: We'll only use nuclear weapons if sovereignty threatened

By Euan McKirdy and K.J. Kwon, CNN
Updated 11:48 PM ET, Sat May 7, 2016

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country would not use a nuclear weapon unless its sovereignty is encroached by "invasive hostile forces with nuclear weapons," according to the country's state news agency KCNA.

He made the remarks Saturday at the ruling Workers' Party of Korea's Seventh Congress in Pyongyang, which began the day before.

Kim also reportedly said North Korea will faithfully fulfill its nuclear nonproliferation obligations and make an effort to realize global denuclearization.

In his 15-minute opening speech Friday, Kim touted the country's weapons development, saying they had "elevated our respect to the world and enemies."

In January, Pyongyang announced that it had successfully tested a thermonuclear device, which, if true, would mark a significant advance in its nuclear capabilities.

It has since made a number of public demonstrations of its nuclear program's advancement, including rocket and submarine-based missile tests. It also announced it had miniaturized a warhead in early March.


Why Kim Jong Un is now advertising his arsenal


North Korea's 'golden age?'

Kim also said during his opening remarks that the congress would review the party's "brilliant successes" and put together tasks to "keep ushering in a great golden age of socialist construction."

The country's provocative nuclear stance has triggered some of the harshest U.N. sanctions imposed against North Korea and irritated his most powerful ally, China.

The sole remaining symbol of cooperation with South Korea -- the Kaesong Industrial Complex near the demilitarized zone -- has also shut down during his tenure.

No Chinese officials were invited to the party congress, according to Chinese state media.

Kim appears determined to project the image of self-reliance as his impoverished country defies international condemnation by chasing its nuclear ambitions.

At the same time, Kim has promised to take measures to improve the living standards of North Koreans, the other element of his two-prong, so-called "Byongjin" policy of economic and nuclear advancement.

To outside observers, the two goals seem contradictory and implausible.

Can Kim fix North Korea's economy?

The congress is the first in the country for 36 years. Friday saw around 3,000 party members and more than 100 international media outlets pour in for this once-in-a-generation political gathering, officials told CNN.

Details of the gathering had been kept secret from the foreign press and the North Korean public until a Friday evening news bulletin.

The previous one, in 1980, marked the naming of Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, as successor to his own father, North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung, as leader of the reclusive nation.

CNN's Will Ripley in Pyongyang, North Korea contributed to this report

 

[China Connection]

I wonder if I should become terrified over Noth Korea having so many nukes??????????????

 

[Housecarl]

I wonder if I should become terrified over Noth Korea having so many nukes??????????????

Concerned maybe, as I would be concerning the "games" being played by the PLAN to the north and wear of you, but not terrified.

To be honest CC, I've probably got more to worry about with them than you with me being in Silicon Valley.