GOV/MIL Minsk: something happening there
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northern watch
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jward
passin' thru
Gregor Martin
@Guderian_Xaba
1h
Some kind of "green men" with balaklavas and no insignia in action in Belarus, looks like Putin sent help.
View: https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1303551598245949441?s=20
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Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Resists Moscow’s Pressure for Economic Integration
September 10, 2020, 8:45 pm EDT
Iswresearch.org
By George Barros
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely assesses his position against the protesters has stabilized to the point that he can resume balancing against Kremlin efforts to absorb Belarus though the Union State. The Kremlin will likely intensify pressure against Lukashenko nevertheless.
The Kremlin is attempting to accelerate Union State integration with Belarus by expanding the intended scope of its annual regional economic forum.[1] The initial purpose of this forum was to advance Russian-Belarusian Union State economic integration at local firm-to-firm levels.[2] Kremlin officials said this year’s forum will culminate in the signing of “important economic agreements” and that Russian-Belarusian economic cooperation occurs at local, regional, and federal levels.[3] Lukashenko pushed back against Kremlin efforts to expand the scope of the forum and stressed the forum will continue to work “at the enterprise level.”[4] Lukashenko will likely continue to stall by attempting to limit integration to levels below those of the Kremlin's desires.[5] He disregarded Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev’s pressure at a September 10 meeting to commit Belarus to significantly deeper economic integration with Russia during his upcoming meeting with Putin in Moscow.[6]
The Kremlin continues to support Lukashenko in the information space despite his renewed efforts to balance against Moscow’s pressure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a “huge number of Belarusians” support Lukashenko despite the protests on September 10.[7] The Kremlin will likely continue to support Lukashenko against protests despite his growing resistance to the Kremlin Lukashenko likely currently provides the Kremlin its best opportunity to ensure Russia’s long-term dominance over Belarus, and Putin is showing concern that Belarusian protests could spread to Russia.[8] The Kremlin still retains the option of supporting alternate leadership in Belarus if its assessment of Lukashenko’s reliability changes, however.
Approximately 19 masked men raided Kremlin-linked opposition leader Viktar Babariko’s office in Minsk on September 9.[9] Belarusian Interior Ministry police responded to the break-in but the masked men did not permit police in the office, claiming they themselves were conducting an investigation they are “not authorized” to discuss.[10]
The men may have searched the office for evidence regarding opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova’s criminal prosecution or potential links to the Kremlin. Belarusian authorities formally imprisoned Kolesnikova and charged her with calls to incite a coup d’etat on September 9.[11] Kolesnikova worked out of Babariko’s office prior to her abduction on September 7.[12] It is unclear whether the unknown men captured or destroyed materials from the office.
Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev demonstrated Moscow’s view of Belarus as part of Russia in a meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk on September 10. Menzentsev gave Lukashenko a book with maps from 1866 depicting Belarus’ regions as provinces of the Russian Empire.[13] Mezentsev reiterated Lukashenko’s September 1 statement that Belarusians see Russia and Belarus as a common “fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok,” further implying Belarus was and will be a subject under a larger Russian domain.[14]
Credit: The Picture Art Collection / Alamy Stock Photo
Caption: European Russia in 1856. This map is NOT the one Ambassador Menzentsev gave Lukashenko, and shows Russian borders in Europe as of 1856. There was no change in those borders between 1856 and the date of the book Menzentsev gave Lukashenko. Note that the Russian Empire of that time included Finland, Moldova, the Baltic States and central Poland, including Warsaw.
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[1] Belarus and Russia will hold their sixth annual “Forum of Regions” on September 28-29. https://tass(.)ru/ekonomika/9419259
[2] https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/09/do-foruma-regionov-belarusi-i-rossii-v-minske-ostalos-menshe-treh-nedel.html; http://cis.minsk(.)by/news/3213/v-minske-sostoalsa-pervyj-forum-regionov-belarusi-i-rossii
[3] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/; https://www.belta(.)by/politics/view/mezentsev-rossija-i-belarus-vmeste-406238-2020/; https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/10/prezident-belarusi-vstretilsia-s-poslom-rossii-dmitriem-mezencevym.html; https://sputnik(.)by/economy/20200903/1045612341/Matvienko-podgotovka-k-forumu-regionov-Belarusi-i-Rossii-idet-aktivno.html; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/; https://www.belta(.)by/politics/view/mezentsev-rossija-i-belarus-vmeste-406238-2020/
[4] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/
[5] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[6] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/
[7] https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/10/peskov-zaiavil-o-bolshoj-podderzhke-belorusami-lukashenko.html
[8] https://tass(.)com/politics/1198937
[9]
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eb8AW_dzs2Y&ab_channel=TUT.BY.%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0;
https://ria(.)ru/20200909/babariko-1576970333.html
[10] https://t(.)me/nexta_tv/4021; https://ria(.)ru/20200909/babariko-1576970333.html
[11] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[12] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[13] https://www.rbc(.)ru/rbcfreenews/5f5a23a89a79477f9a58bfc0; https://www.tvr(.)by/news/prezident/dmitriy_mezentsev_podaril_aleksandru_lukashenko_knigu_s_topograficheskimi_kartami_guberniy_1866_goda/
[14] https://sputnik(.)by/politics/20200910/1045653581/Mezentsev-rukovodstvo-Belarusi-natseleno-na-rasshirenie-otnosheniy-s-Rossiey.html; Warning: Kremlin-linked Belarusian Opposition Leadership Threaten to Further Fragment Opposition Unity
www.iswresearch.org
September 10, 2020, 8:45 pm EDT
Iswresearch.org
By George Barros
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely assesses his position against the protesters has stabilized to the point that he can resume balancing against Kremlin efforts to absorb Belarus though the Union State. The Kremlin will likely intensify pressure against Lukashenko nevertheless.
The Kremlin is attempting to accelerate Union State integration with Belarus by expanding the intended scope of its annual regional economic forum.[1] The initial purpose of this forum was to advance Russian-Belarusian Union State economic integration at local firm-to-firm levels.[2] Kremlin officials said this year’s forum will culminate in the signing of “important economic agreements” and that Russian-Belarusian economic cooperation occurs at local, regional, and federal levels.[3] Lukashenko pushed back against Kremlin efforts to expand the scope of the forum and stressed the forum will continue to work “at the enterprise level.”[4] Lukashenko will likely continue to stall by attempting to limit integration to levels below those of the Kremlin's desires.[5] He disregarded Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev’s pressure at a September 10 meeting to commit Belarus to significantly deeper economic integration with Russia during his upcoming meeting with Putin in Moscow.[6]
The Kremlin continues to support Lukashenko in the information space despite his renewed efforts to balance against Moscow’s pressure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a “huge number of Belarusians” support Lukashenko despite the protests on September 10.[7] The Kremlin will likely continue to support Lukashenko against protests despite his growing resistance to the Kremlin Lukashenko likely currently provides the Kremlin its best opportunity to ensure Russia’s long-term dominance over Belarus, and Putin is showing concern that Belarusian protests could spread to Russia.[8] The Kremlin still retains the option of supporting alternate leadership in Belarus if its assessment of Lukashenko’s reliability changes, however.
Approximately 19 masked men raided Kremlin-linked opposition leader Viktar Babariko’s office in Minsk on September 9.[9] Belarusian Interior Ministry police responded to the break-in but the masked men did not permit police in the office, claiming they themselves were conducting an investigation they are “not authorized” to discuss.[10]
The men may have searched the office for evidence regarding opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova’s criminal prosecution or potential links to the Kremlin. Belarusian authorities formally imprisoned Kolesnikova and charged her with calls to incite a coup d’etat on September 9.[11] Kolesnikova worked out of Babariko’s office prior to her abduction on September 7.[12] It is unclear whether the unknown men captured or destroyed materials from the office.
Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev demonstrated Moscow’s view of Belarus as part of Russia in a meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk on September 10. Menzentsev gave Lukashenko a book with maps from 1866 depicting Belarus’ regions as provinces of the Russian Empire.[13] Mezentsev reiterated Lukashenko’s September 1 statement that Belarusians see Russia and Belarus as a common “fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok,” further implying Belarus was and will be a subject under a larger Russian domain.[14]
Credit: The Picture Art Collection / Alamy Stock Photo
Caption: European Russia in 1856. This map is NOT the one Ambassador Menzentsev gave Lukashenko, and shows Russian borders in Europe as of 1856. There was no change in those borders between 1856 and the date of the book Menzentsev gave Lukashenko. Note that the Russian Empire of that time included Finland, Moldova, the Baltic States and central Poland, including Warsaw.
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[1] Belarus and Russia will hold their sixth annual “Forum of Regions” on September 28-29. https://tass(.)ru/ekonomika/9419259
[2] https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/09/do-foruma-regionov-belarusi-i-rossii-v-minske-ostalos-menshe-treh-nedel.html; http://cis.minsk(.)by/news/3213/v-minske-sostoalsa-pervyj-forum-regionov-belarusi-i-rossii
[3] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/; https://www.belta(.)by/politics/view/mezentsev-rossija-i-belarus-vmeste-406238-2020/; https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/10/prezident-belarusi-vstretilsia-s-poslom-rossii-dmitriem-mezencevym.html; https://sputnik(.)by/economy/20200903/1045612341/Matvienko-podgotovka-k-forumu-regionov-Belarusi-i-Rossii-idet-aktivno.html; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/; https://www.belta(.)by/politics/view/mezentsev-rossija-i-belarus-vmeste-406238-2020/
[4] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/
[5] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[6] https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/lukashenko-belarus-i-rossija-znachitelno-prodvinulis-v-reshenii-nakopivshihsja-problem-i-zadach-406221-2020/
[7] https://rg(.)ru/2020/09/10/peskov-zaiavil-o-bolshoj-podderzhke-belorusami-lukashenko.html
[8] https://tass(.)com/politics/1198937
[9]
https://ria(.)ru/20200909/babariko-1576970333.html
[10] https://t(.)me/nexta_tv/4021; https://ria(.)ru/20200909/babariko-1576970333.html
[11] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[12] Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[13] https://www.rbc(.)ru/rbcfreenews/5f5a23a89a79477f9a58bfc0; https://www.tvr(.)by/news/prezident/dmitriy_mezentsev_podaril_aleksandru_lukashenko_knigu_s_topograficheskimi_kartami_guberniy_1866_goda/
[14] https://sputnik(.)by/politics/20200910/1045653581/Mezentsev-rukovodstvo-Belarusi-natseleno-na-rasshirenie-otnosheniy-s-Rossiey.html; Warning: Kremlin-linked Belarusian Opposition Leadership Threaten to Further Fragment Opposition Unity
ISW Blog
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Belarusian leader set to visit Russia as protests continue
Belarusian authorities have detained scores of demonstrators while seeking to end more than a month of protests against the country’s authoritarian president, who is set to visit Russia to help shore up his hold on power after 26 years in office
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
11 September 2020
The Associated Press
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a meeting as he visits Belarusian Academy of Sciences in Minsk, Belarus, Friday, Sept. 11, 2020. (Nikolai Petrov/BelTA Pool Photo via AP)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarusian authorities detained scores of demonstrators Friday while seeking to end more than a month of protests against the country's authoritarian president, who is set to visit Russia to help shore up his hold on power after 26 years in office.
Protesters in Belarus have spent a month denouncing the results of the country’s Aug. 9 presidential election as rigged and demanding the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko from the sixth term he won. Facing criticism from the West, Lukashenko has worked to cement ties with his main ally and sponsor, Russia.
He is set to head to Russia on Monday for talks with President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Some expect Belarusian authorities to take tougher actions against protesters ahead of the meeting.
At least nine protesters were detained Friday outside a court in Belarus's capital, Minsk, as they rallied in solidarity with industrial workers defending their right to launch a strike. Police detained more protesters in the cities of Vitebsk, Gomel and Baranovichi, according to the Viasna human rights center in Minsk.
“The threats and detentions come before the protests set for the weekend,” the head of the center, Ales Bialitski, said. “Lukashenko would very much like to show the Kremlin that the protests are abating and he controls the situation, but so far repressions have had the opposite effect.”
The post-election protests have attracted the biggest crowds on Sundays, when up to 200,000 people have flooded the streets of the capital. Another protest is set for this Sunday.
After a brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in the initial days after the vote drew international outrage and swelled the opposition ranks, Belarusian authorities have sought to squelch the dissent by targeting top activists.
Prosecutors have launched a criminal probe against top members of the Coordination Council created by the opposition to push for a new election, accusing them of undermining national security.
All of the council’s senior members except for Nobel Prize-winning writer Svetlana Alexievich have been either jailed or forcibly expelled from the country. Unidentified people attempted Wednesday to enter Alexievich’s apartment in Minsk, and diplomats from several European Union nations gathered there to prevent her detention and again on Thursday evening.
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics tweeted Friday that he had a call with Alexievich and “expressed Latvia’s full support to the Belarusian society in the strive for political rights and freedoms.”
A leading member of the opposition council, Maria Kolesnikova, remained in jail after resisting her forcible expulsion from Belarus on Tuesday. She alleged that officers of the nation’s state security agency abducted her and threatened to kill her and pushed for a criminal probe into their actions.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Belarus’authorities “to refrain from the use of force against those engaging in peaceful assembly and to ensure that allegations of torture and other mistreatment of people in detention are fully investigated and addressed,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Friday.
The United States and the European Union have criticized Belarus' election as neither free nor fair and urged Lukashenko to engage in talks with the opposition, which he has rejected.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said the U.S., in coordination with the EU, would be announcing sanctions on Belarusian officials and possibly companies in “a few short days.” He noted that the U.S. Treasury could also revoke several general licenses that it has issued in recent years to allow certain transactions with Belarusian businesses.
“There is no legitimacy delivered to the ruler of Belarus by the Aug. 9 election,” Biegun said in a conference call with reporters, adding that the level of violence against protesters is “unbelievable.” “That behavior will not be treated with impunity by us or our European partners,” he warned.
Amid Western criticism, Lukashenko has increasingly reached out to Russia, which has a union agreement with Belarus envisaging close political, economic and military ties. Putin has said he stands ready to send police to Belarus if protests turn violent, stoking fears that Moscow could move to annex its neighbor.
In an interview with Russian television stations earlier this week, Lukashenko ruled out a full merger of Belarus and Russia but spoke in favor of closer integration.
———
Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Matthew Lee in Washington and Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark contributed to this report.
———
Follow all AP stories on the developments in Belarus at Belarus
abcnews.go.com
Belarusian authorities have detained scores of demonstrators while seeking to end more than a month of protests against the country’s authoritarian president, who is set to visit Russia to help shore up his hold on power after 26 years in office
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
11 September 2020
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a meeting as he visits Belarusian Academy of Sciences in Minsk, Belarus, Friday, Sept. 11, 2020. (Nikolai Petrov/BelTA Pool Photo via AP)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarusian authorities detained scores of demonstrators Friday while seeking to end more than a month of protests against the country's authoritarian president, who is set to visit Russia to help shore up his hold on power after 26 years in office.
Protesters in Belarus have spent a month denouncing the results of the country’s Aug. 9 presidential election as rigged and demanding the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko from the sixth term he won. Facing criticism from the West, Lukashenko has worked to cement ties with his main ally and sponsor, Russia.
He is set to head to Russia on Monday for talks with President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Some expect Belarusian authorities to take tougher actions against protesters ahead of the meeting.
At least nine protesters were detained Friday outside a court in Belarus's capital, Minsk, as they rallied in solidarity with industrial workers defending their right to launch a strike. Police detained more protesters in the cities of Vitebsk, Gomel and Baranovichi, according to the Viasna human rights center in Minsk.
“The threats and detentions come before the protests set for the weekend,” the head of the center, Ales Bialitski, said. “Lukashenko would very much like to show the Kremlin that the protests are abating and he controls the situation, but so far repressions have had the opposite effect.”
The post-election protests have attracted the biggest crowds on Sundays, when up to 200,000 people have flooded the streets of the capital. Another protest is set for this Sunday.
After a brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in the initial days after the vote drew international outrage and swelled the opposition ranks, Belarusian authorities have sought to squelch the dissent by targeting top activists.
Prosecutors have launched a criminal probe against top members of the Coordination Council created by the opposition to push for a new election, accusing them of undermining national security.
All of the council’s senior members except for Nobel Prize-winning writer Svetlana Alexievich have been either jailed or forcibly expelled from the country. Unidentified people attempted Wednesday to enter Alexievich’s apartment in Minsk, and diplomats from several European Union nations gathered there to prevent her detention and again on Thursday evening.
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics tweeted Friday that he had a call with Alexievich and “expressed Latvia’s full support to the Belarusian society in the strive for political rights and freedoms.”
A leading member of the opposition council, Maria Kolesnikova, remained in jail after resisting her forcible expulsion from Belarus on Tuesday. She alleged that officers of the nation’s state security agency abducted her and threatened to kill her and pushed for a criminal probe into their actions.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Belarus’authorities “to refrain from the use of force against those engaging in peaceful assembly and to ensure that allegations of torture and other mistreatment of people in detention are fully investigated and addressed,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Friday.
The United States and the European Union have criticized Belarus' election as neither free nor fair and urged Lukashenko to engage in talks with the opposition, which he has rejected.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said the U.S., in coordination with the EU, would be announcing sanctions on Belarusian officials and possibly companies in “a few short days.” He noted that the U.S. Treasury could also revoke several general licenses that it has issued in recent years to allow certain transactions with Belarusian businesses.
“There is no legitimacy delivered to the ruler of Belarus by the Aug. 9 election,” Biegun said in a conference call with reporters, adding that the level of violence against protesters is “unbelievable.” “That behavior will not be treated with impunity by us or our European partners,” he warned.
Amid Western criticism, Lukashenko has increasingly reached out to Russia, which has a union agreement with Belarus envisaging close political, economic and military ties. Putin has said he stands ready to send police to Belarus if protests turn violent, stoking fears that Moscow could move to annex its neighbor.
In an interview with Russian television stations earlier this week, Lukashenko ruled out a full merger of Belarus and Russia but spoke in favor of closer integration.
———
Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Matthew Lee in Washington and Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark contributed to this report.
———
Follow all AP stories on the developments in Belarus at Belarus
Belarusian leader set to visit Russia as protests continue
Belarusian authorities have detained scores of demonstrators while seeking to end more than a month of protests against the country’s authoritarian president, who is set to visit Russia to help shore up his hold on power after 26 years in office
abcnews.go.com
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Belarus says US tank battalion deploys near border
September 13, 2020 378
geopolitics-00382
U.S. Army M1A2 Abrams with production TUSK explosive reactive armor package installed
A US tank battalion is being transferred to a Lithuanian military training ground located just 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the border with Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, the Belarusian minister of defense, said on Saturday.
“The movement of NATO troops is taking place in territory adjacent to us, within the framework of the Enhanced Forward Presence and Atlantic Resolve operations. In particular, the 2nd Battalion of the 69th Armor Regiment is being deployed to the Pabrade training ground [in Lithuania], 15 kilometers from our border,” Khrenin said during an appearance on the Belarusian broadcaster CTV.
The minister of defense said that a similar deployment had taken place in the spring, but added that the number of troops and machines involved had raised concerns in Minsk.
“The fact that about 500 people, 29 tanks, and 43 Bradley Fighting Vehicles will be in such close proximity to our border cannot do anything but worry us,” Khrenin added.
The United States has also increased the number of reconnaissance flights its military has conducted along the Belarusian border, the minister of defense added.
Source: Almasdarnews, September 13th, 2020
geopolitics.news
Belarus says US tank battalion deploys near border
September 13, 2020 378
geopolitics-00382
U.S. Army M1A2 Abrams with production TUSK explosive reactive armor package installed
A US tank battalion is being transferred to a Lithuanian military training ground located just 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the border with Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, the Belarusian minister of defense, said on Saturday.
“The movement of NATO troops is taking place in territory adjacent to us, within the framework of the Enhanced Forward Presence and Atlantic Resolve operations. In particular, the 2nd Battalion of the 69th Armor Regiment is being deployed to the Pabrade training ground [in Lithuania], 15 kilometers from our border,” Khrenin said during an appearance on the Belarusian broadcaster CTV.
The minister of defense said that a similar deployment had taken place in the spring, but added that the number of troops and machines involved had raised concerns in Minsk.
“The fact that about 500 people, 29 tanks, and 43 Bradley Fighting Vehicles will be in such close proximity to our border cannot do anything but worry us,” Khrenin added.
The United States has also increased the number of reconnaissance flights its military has conducted along the Belarusian border, the minister of defense added.
Source: Almasdarnews, September 13th, 2020
Belarus says US tank battalion deploys near border - Geopolitics News
A US tank battalion is being transferred to a Lithuanian military training ground located just 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from the border with Belarus,
geopolitics.news
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ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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Russia Sends Elite Airborne Troops To Belarus For Drills As Putin Hosts Embattled Lukashenko
by Tyler Durden
Sun, 09/13/2020 - 19:10
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Russian state media reports that the country's airborne forces will be deployed to Belarus for joint military drills from Monday through September 25.
Despite the 'Slavic Fraternity' drills being an annual pre-planned event hosted by Belarusian armed forces, the deployment comes at an intensifying moment of continued mass anti-Lukashenko protests after denunciations by the opposition that the Aug.9 national election was "rigged".
"In accordance with the schedule of international events for 2020, the planned joint Belarusian-Russian tactical exercise Slavic Fraternity, which has been held annually since 2015, will be held from 14 to 25 September at the Brestsky training ground in Belarus", the Russian defense ministry said over the weekend.
Image source: RDM/Sputnik It total Russia is expected to send about 300 troops among its elite Pskov division along with military hardware for the joint drills.
Crucially it comes after Minsk has again charged that "NATO is at the gates" in neighboring Lithuania, where it's been confirmed that American tanks are participating in pre-scheduled exercises there.
Viktor Khrenin, the Belarusian minister of defense, said on Saturday:
The defense minister added, “The fact that about 500 people, 29 tanks, and 43 Bradley Fighting Vehicles will be in such close proximity to our border cannot do anything but worry us.”
Meanwhile, opposition activists - of which 250 were reportedly arrested in the Belarusian capital Sunday amid more mass protests - have charged that Putin is treating the country as a "Russian province" akin to Soviet times.
The Guardian and others reported numbers of up to 100,000 protesters in Minsk on Sunday, on the eve of a much-anticipated meeting between Presidents Lukashenko and Putin on Monday in Sochi. The embattled Belarusian president, now in his sixth term, will seek greater public backing by Putin.
Interestingly, Serbia was expected to take part in this week's military games in Belarus, but has backed out based on its policy of wanting to display greater neutrality, but also under intense pressure from the EU.
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Russia to send paratroopers to Belarus for joint drills starting on Monday: RIA
By Reuters Staff
September 13, 20204:46 AMUpdated 16 hours ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will send troops from its Pskov division of paratroopers to Belarus for joint military drills starting on Monday, the RIA news agency cited Russia’s defence ministry as saying on Sunday.
The drills come amid tensions in Belarus as President Alexander Lukashenko faces a groundswell of public anger over an election last month that his opponents say was rigged. The protests have tested the loyalty of his security forces.
The “Slavic brotherhood” joint military drills are due to run from Sept. 14-25, the defence ministry said, adding that the Russian paratroopers would return to Russia once they are over.
Reporting by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Catherine Evans
www.reuters.com
By Reuters Staff
September 13, 20204:46 AMUpdated 16 hours ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will send troops from its Pskov division of paratroopers to Belarus for joint military drills starting on Monday, the RIA news agency cited Russia’s defence ministry as saying on Sunday.
The drills come amid tensions in Belarus as President Alexander Lukashenko faces a groundswell of public anger over an election last month that his opponents say was rigged. The protests have tested the loyalty of his security forces.
The “Slavic brotherhood” joint military drills are due to run from Sept. 14-25, the defence ministry said, adding that the Russian paratroopers would return to Russia once they are over.
Reporting by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Catherine Evans
Russia to send paratroopers to Belarus for joint drills starting on Monday: RIA
Russia will send troops from its Pskov division of paratroopers to Belarus for joint military drills starting on Monday, the RIA news agency cited Russia's defence ministry as saying on Sunday.
www.reuters.com
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With Vatican FM in Belarus, pope urges respect for protests
Pope Francis is urging political leaders to listen to protesters and heed their calls for political and social change
By The Associated Press
13 September 2020
VATICAN CITY -- Pope Francis urged political leaders to listen to protesters and heed their calls for political and social change, an apparent reference to protests in Belarus against the country's authoritarian president.
Francis didn’t mention Belarus or any country in his appeal Sunday during his noontime prayer but his comments came as the Vatican foreign minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, traveled to Belarus to meet with church and civil authorities amid weeks of anti-government protests.
“While I urge protesters to make their demands known peacefully without falling into the temptation of aggression and violence, I appeal to all those with public and governmental responsibilities to listen to the voice of their fellow citizens and to meet their just aspirations by ensuring full respect for human rights and civil liberties,” Francis said.
The pope has also spoken out previously in support of anti-racism protests in the U.S.
Protesters in Belarus have spent a month denouncing the results of the country’s Aug. 9 presidential election as rigged and demanding the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko. Facing criticism from the West, Lukashenko has worked to cement ties with his main sponsor, Russia.
The Vatican would be loath to criticize Russia or Belarus publicly, given its longstanding efforts to improve relations with the influential Russian Orthodox Church.
In its statement Friday announcing Gallagher’s visit, the Vatican stressed the religious nature of the visit. It said Gallagher was going to Belarus “to demonstrate the attention and proximity of the Holy Father to the Catholic Church and the entire country.”
The Vatican's media service, Vatican News, noted that Gallagher likely wouldn't be able to meet with the Catholic archbishop of Minsk, Tadeusz Kondrusiewicz. Belarus authorities have refused to let him back into the country after he left in August to visit Poland.
———
Read all AP stories about developments in Belarus at Belarus.
abcnews.go.com
Pope Francis is urging political leaders to listen to protesters and heed their calls for political and social change
By The Associated Press
13 September 2020
VATICAN CITY -- Pope Francis urged political leaders to listen to protesters and heed their calls for political and social change, an apparent reference to protests in Belarus against the country's authoritarian president.
Francis didn’t mention Belarus or any country in his appeal Sunday during his noontime prayer but his comments came as the Vatican foreign minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, traveled to Belarus to meet with church and civil authorities amid weeks of anti-government protests.
“While I urge protesters to make their demands known peacefully without falling into the temptation of aggression and violence, I appeal to all those with public and governmental responsibilities to listen to the voice of their fellow citizens and to meet their just aspirations by ensuring full respect for human rights and civil liberties,” Francis said.
The pope has also spoken out previously in support of anti-racism protests in the U.S.
Protesters in Belarus have spent a month denouncing the results of the country’s Aug. 9 presidential election as rigged and demanding the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko. Facing criticism from the West, Lukashenko has worked to cement ties with his main sponsor, Russia.
The Vatican would be loath to criticize Russia or Belarus publicly, given its longstanding efforts to improve relations with the influential Russian Orthodox Church.
In its statement Friday announcing Gallagher’s visit, the Vatican stressed the religious nature of the visit. It said Gallagher was going to Belarus “to demonstrate the attention and proximity of the Holy Father to the Catholic Church and the entire country.”
The Vatican's media service, Vatican News, noted that Gallagher likely wouldn't be able to meet with the Catholic archbishop of Minsk, Tadeusz Kondrusiewicz. Belarus authorities have refused to let him back into the country after he left in August to visit Poland.
———
Read all AP stories about developments in Belarus at Belarus.
With Vatican FM in Belarus, pope urges respect for protests
Pope Francis is urging political leaders to listen to protesters and heed their calls for political and social change
abcnews.go.com
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Lukashenka Threatens to Shut Belarusian-Baltic Transit Routes: Who Will Suffer Most?
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 125
By: Alla Hurska
September 11, 2020 04:58 PM Age: 2 days
Jamestown.org
Port of Klaipeda (Source: Safety4Sea)
On August 28, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka threatened to redirect all of his country’s trade flows as well as the transit of foreign goods across its territory from Lithuanian ports to Ust-Luga and Primorsk, in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast, if Europe were to impose anti-Belarus sanctions (Belta.by, Interfax, August 28). In particular, Belarus would stop utilizing the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda to ship its exports (mainly potassium chloride and oil products) to global markets (Minprom.ua, August 28). Indeed, on September 7, the Belarusian state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim confirmed that negotiations are apparently underway on the re-direction of export flows of Belarusian refined oil products from Lithuania to Russian ports (Belta.by, September 7).
Situated in the geographic heart of Europe, Belarus is criss-crossed by major international transit corridors that connect the European Union, Russia, Central Asia and China, as well as link the Baltic, Black and Caspian seas. The closure of those transit routes through the country or their redirection to Russian ports will affect many regions. And the geo-economic and geopolitical impact of such a policy will extend well beyond Belarusian-Lithuanian relations.
Among the most affected third countries might be Ukraine—a fear explicitly expressed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure (Minprom.ua, August 28). Ukraine notably depends on access to Lithuanian ports for a significant portion of its trade with the EU, which is today the country’s largest economic partner. In 2019, the share of trade in goods and services with the EU amounted to 40.1 percent of Ukraine’s total trade volume: $20.8 billion in exports and $25.0 billion in imports. Ferrous metals, grain crops, electric machines, ores, slags, fats and oils, oilseeds crops, wood and wood products, and energy materials were major Ukrainian export goods to Europe. The main imports were nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and vehicles, chemicals, pharmaceutical products, plastics, polymeric materials, raw materials, food, drink and energy (Me.gov.ua, August 25). Last year, Ukraine was also among the three largest exporters of agricultural products to the EU, gaining $8.6 billion (Lb.ua, January 12, 14).
All of the above-listed goods were at least partially transported across Belarus to or from the Port of Klaipeda (Lithuania), which has become the leader in the Baltic States in terms of annual cargo volumes. To Klaipeda, Ukraine mainly transports ferroalloys from the Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant (controlled by Ihor Kolomoisky); while polymers, fertilizers, recyclables, fish, coke, clothing (“second-hand”) travel in the opposite direction (Info.uz.ua, August 7, 2018). The Viking Train—a transportation corridor connecting the Baltic (Klaipeda), Black (Odessa and Illichivsk), Mediterranean and the Caspian seas—is the fastest and cheapest route with access to Klaipeda. Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania launched this project in 2003. During the first seven months of 2020, more than 7,000 containers were transported along the Viking railroad, via Ukrainian territory (Mtu.gov.ua, September 7).
Additionally, Lithuania continues to be Ukraine’s largest trading partner among the three Baltic States. The volume of bilateral trade hit a record $1.653 billion in 2019. Ukraine mainly exported agricultural products, food, mechanical engineering products, wood products and ferrous metals, while importing from Lithuania petroleum products, land vehicles and fertilizers (Lithuania.mfa.gov.ua, May 8).
Kyiv is not entirely beholden to Minsk when it comes to those trade flows, however. In 2019–2020, Ukraine managed to organize four additional international rail transit routes that do not traverse Belarus: 1) Nizhnodniprovsk-Vuzol (Ukraine)–Sławków (Poland)–Gdańsk (Poland), 2) Russia–Ukraine–Poland, 3) China–Kazakhstan–Russia–Ukraine–Poland and 4) Belarus–Ukraine–Romania. In January 2020 alone, five of such cargo trains passed through Ukraine (Info.uz.ua, February 25). These new freight trains to Poland are three times faster and at least 20 percent cheaper than previous routes across Belarus (Uz.gov.ua, April 4, 2019). From Xi’an (China) to Sławków (the beginning of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), a train managed to arrive at its destination in just 12 days (UNIAN, January 9). By utilizing these routes, Ukraine will be able to better secure its trade and transit to/from the EU. Also, if Minsk decides to deprive Lithuania of its cargo, Ukraine could try to benefit from this by redirecting international transit to Klaipeda across its own territory and Poland. Obviously, there is inherent risk in relying more heavily on passage through the Suwałki Corridor, a 65-kilometer wide stretch of land between Belarus and Kaliningrad. But since the United States has been boosting its long-term troop presence in Poland, Russia might be discouraged from trying to undermine security in this region.
By closing transit to Klaipeda, Belarus will certainly harm Lithuania, but it also risks hurting itself. First, relations with Ukraine—a strategic trade/economic partner—could be ruined. In the first quarter of 2020, total Belarusian-Ukrainian trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $1.926 billion (Belarus.mfa.gov.ua, August 31). Second, Belarus, whose main exports (oil products and potash fertilizers) were transited through Lithuanian ports, has itself invested in this route. Since 2013, Belaruskali has paid $30 million for 30 percent of the Biriu Kroviniu Terminalas (BKT) shipping terminal at Klaipeda (Baltnews.lt, September 3). Already the main port terminal handling Belaruskali products, the BKT notably plans to increase its capacity from 10 to 16 million tons of cargo per year (including investing in a 100,000-ton-capacity warehouse) (Cfts.org.ua, July 24). In contrast, the new trans-shipment complex in Russia’s Ust-Luga port may not become operable until 2024 (Baltnews.lt, January 22). The lower price of using the Klaipeda port is also a serious factor (Baltnews.lt, September 3).
Third, Poland ranks seventh in the world and second in Europe in terms of consumption of Belarusian potash fertilizers; and it is a key market for Belarusian timber product exports (Logirus.ru, August 31). Fourth, Belarus receives oil from the United States via the port of Klaipeda (Cfts.org.ua, August 10); naturally, the US is unlikely to redirect these oil shipments to Russian ports. Finally, it is not quite clear how China would react to a Belarusian transit ban across its territory. All in all, five out of six of Minsk’s key trade partners (Ukraine, China, Germany, Poland, Lithuania) would be unhappy about Lukashenka’s reorientation away from Klaipeda.
Apparently, Lukashenka counts on some sort of compensation from Russia. But burdened by its own economic problems, Moscow’s ability to fully compensate Minsk for potential losses looks dubious. Still, if Lukashenka finds himself completely isolated from the West, he may have no other option but to turn to Russia—no matter the economic losses.
jamestown.org
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 125
By: Alla Hurska
September 11, 2020 04:58 PM Age: 2 days
Jamestown.org
Port of Klaipeda (Source: Safety4Sea)
On August 28, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka threatened to redirect all of his country’s trade flows as well as the transit of foreign goods across its territory from Lithuanian ports to Ust-Luga and Primorsk, in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast, if Europe were to impose anti-Belarus sanctions (Belta.by, Interfax, August 28). In particular, Belarus would stop utilizing the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda to ship its exports (mainly potassium chloride and oil products) to global markets (Minprom.ua, August 28). Indeed, on September 7, the Belarusian state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim confirmed that negotiations are apparently underway on the re-direction of export flows of Belarusian refined oil products from Lithuania to Russian ports (Belta.by, September 7).
Situated in the geographic heart of Europe, Belarus is criss-crossed by major international transit corridors that connect the European Union, Russia, Central Asia and China, as well as link the Baltic, Black and Caspian seas. The closure of those transit routes through the country or their redirection to Russian ports will affect many regions. And the geo-economic and geopolitical impact of such a policy will extend well beyond Belarusian-Lithuanian relations.
Among the most affected third countries might be Ukraine—a fear explicitly expressed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure (Minprom.ua, August 28). Ukraine notably depends on access to Lithuanian ports for a significant portion of its trade with the EU, which is today the country’s largest economic partner. In 2019, the share of trade in goods and services with the EU amounted to 40.1 percent of Ukraine’s total trade volume: $20.8 billion in exports and $25.0 billion in imports. Ferrous metals, grain crops, electric machines, ores, slags, fats and oils, oilseeds crops, wood and wood products, and energy materials were major Ukrainian export goods to Europe. The main imports were nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and vehicles, chemicals, pharmaceutical products, plastics, polymeric materials, raw materials, food, drink and energy (Me.gov.ua, August 25). Last year, Ukraine was also among the three largest exporters of agricultural products to the EU, gaining $8.6 billion (Lb.ua, January 12, 14).
All of the above-listed goods were at least partially transported across Belarus to or from the Port of Klaipeda (Lithuania), which has become the leader in the Baltic States in terms of annual cargo volumes. To Klaipeda, Ukraine mainly transports ferroalloys from the Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant (controlled by Ihor Kolomoisky); while polymers, fertilizers, recyclables, fish, coke, clothing (“second-hand”) travel in the opposite direction (Info.uz.ua, August 7, 2018). The Viking Train—a transportation corridor connecting the Baltic (Klaipeda), Black (Odessa and Illichivsk), Mediterranean and the Caspian seas—is the fastest and cheapest route with access to Klaipeda. Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania launched this project in 2003. During the first seven months of 2020, more than 7,000 containers were transported along the Viking railroad, via Ukrainian territory (Mtu.gov.ua, September 7).
Additionally, Lithuania continues to be Ukraine’s largest trading partner among the three Baltic States. The volume of bilateral trade hit a record $1.653 billion in 2019. Ukraine mainly exported agricultural products, food, mechanical engineering products, wood products and ferrous metals, while importing from Lithuania petroleum products, land vehicles and fertilizers (Lithuania.mfa.gov.ua, May 8).
Kyiv is not entirely beholden to Minsk when it comes to those trade flows, however. In 2019–2020, Ukraine managed to organize four additional international rail transit routes that do not traverse Belarus: 1) Nizhnodniprovsk-Vuzol (Ukraine)–Sławków (Poland)–Gdańsk (Poland), 2) Russia–Ukraine–Poland, 3) China–Kazakhstan–Russia–Ukraine–Poland and 4) Belarus–Ukraine–Romania. In January 2020 alone, five of such cargo trains passed through Ukraine (Info.uz.ua, February 25). These new freight trains to Poland are three times faster and at least 20 percent cheaper than previous routes across Belarus (Uz.gov.ua, April 4, 2019). From Xi’an (China) to Sławków (the beginning of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), a train managed to arrive at its destination in just 12 days (UNIAN, January 9). By utilizing these routes, Ukraine will be able to better secure its trade and transit to/from the EU. Also, if Minsk decides to deprive Lithuania of its cargo, Ukraine could try to benefit from this by redirecting international transit to Klaipeda across its own territory and Poland. Obviously, there is inherent risk in relying more heavily on passage through the Suwałki Corridor, a 65-kilometer wide stretch of land between Belarus and Kaliningrad. But since the United States has been boosting its long-term troop presence in Poland, Russia might be discouraged from trying to undermine security in this region.
By closing transit to Klaipeda, Belarus will certainly harm Lithuania, but it also risks hurting itself. First, relations with Ukraine—a strategic trade/economic partner—could be ruined. In the first quarter of 2020, total Belarusian-Ukrainian trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $1.926 billion (Belarus.mfa.gov.ua, August 31). Second, Belarus, whose main exports (oil products and potash fertilizers) were transited through Lithuanian ports, has itself invested in this route. Since 2013, Belaruskali has paid $30 million for 30 percent of the Biriu Kroviniu Terminalas (BKT) shipping terminal at Klaipeda (Baltnews.lt, September 3). Already the main port terminal handling Belaruskali products, the BKT notably plans to increase its capacity from 10 to 16 million tons of cargo per year (including investing in a 100,000-ton-capacity warehouse) (Cfts.org.ua, July 24). In contrast, the new trans-shipment complex in Russia’s Ust-Luga port may not become operable until 2024 (Baltnews.lt, January 22). The lower price of using the Klaipeda port is also a serious factor (Baltnews.lt, September 3).
Third, Poland ranks seventh in the world and second in Europe in terms of consumption of Belarusian potash fertilizers; and it is a key market for Belarusian timber product exports (Logirus.ru, August 31). Fourth, Belarus receives oil from the United States via the port of Klaipeda (Cfts.org.ua, August 10); naturally, the US is unlikely to redirect these oil shipments to Russian ports. Finally, it is not quite clear how China would react to a Belarusian transit ban across its territory. All in all, five out of six of Minsk’s key trade partners (Ukraine, China, Germany, Poland, Lithuania) would be unhappy about Lukashenka’s reorientation away from Klaipeda.
Apparently, Lukashenka counts on some sort of compensation from Russia. But burdened by its own economic problems, Moscow’s ability to fully compensate Minsk for potential losses looks dubious. Still, if Lukashenka finds himself completely isolated from the West, he may have no other option but to turn to Russia—no matter the economic losses.
Lukashenka Threatens to Shut Belarusian-Baltic Transit Routes: Who Will Suffer Most?
On August 28, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka threatened to redirect all of his country’s trade flows as well as the transit of foreign goods across its territory from Lithuanian ports to Ust-Luga and Primorsk, in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast, if Europe were to impose anti-Belarus...
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Belarus leader looks to Putin to help him cling on to power
By Katya Golubkova
September 13, 20207:23 PM Updated an hour ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus will seek the backing of Russia’s Vladimir Putin at a crucial meeting on Monday after a fifth consecutive weekend of huge protests demanding that he step down.
Economic and military support from Moscow could help tip the balance in his favour as his security forces crack down hard on the opposition.
The Belarusian opposition accuses Lukashenko of rigging last month’s presidential election, which he says he won fairly with 80% of the vote. Since then, thousands of people have been arrested and nearly all the opposition’s key leaders have been detained, deported or forced to flee the country.
At least 100,000 protesters took to the streets of the capital Minsk on Sunday, taunting Lukashenko with chants of “You’re a rat”. Police said they detained over 400 people.
Putin’s actions so far suggest he has no desire to see the leader of a neighbouring ex-Soviet country toppled by pressure from the streets - even if Lukashenko has often proved a prickly and difficult ally.
The Kremlin leader said last month he had set up a “reserve police force” at Lukashenko’s request, but it would be deployed only if needed. On Monday Russia will send paratroopers to Belarus for joint “Slavic brotherhood” military drills until Sept. 25, RIA news agency quoted the defence ministry as saying.
Russia has also offered to restructure Belarusian debt and support the banking system.
The cost of further Moscow backing could be Lukashenko’s acceptance of even greater Russian dominance in the relationship between the two countries.
The Kremlin has long pushed for closer political and economic integration with Minsk, including a joint currency, but Lukashenko has resisted the pressure from his more powerful neighbour.
Yet the veteran Belarusian leader’s position could become increasingly precarious should the protests persist, and grow.
Sunday’s demonstration was one of the biggest yet.
“We have to show with this march that he doesn’t control the country, that he is not in a position to speak on behalf of Belarusians,” said Gennady, 35, a logistics worker who declined to give his last name.
Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Pravin Char
uk.reuters.com
By Katya Golubkova
September 13, 20207:23 PM Updated an hour ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus will seek the backing of Russia’s Vladimir Putin at a crucial meeting on Monday after a fifth consecutive weekend of huge protests demanding that he step down.
Economic and military support from Moscow could help tip the balance in his favour as his security forces crack down hard on the opposition.
The Belarusian opposition accuses Lukashenko of rigging last month’s presidential election, which he says he won fairly with 80% of the vote. Since then, thousands of people have been arrested and nearly all the opposition’s key leaders have been detained, deported or forced to flee the country.
At least 100,000 protesters took to the streets of the capital Minsk on Sunday, taunting Lukashenko with chants of “You’re a rat”. Police said they detained over 400 people.
Putin’s actions so far suggest he has no desire to see the leader of a neighbouring ex-Soviet country toppled by pressure from the streets - even if Lukashenko has often proved a prickly and difficult ally.
The Kremlin leader said last month he had set up a “reserve police force” at Lukashenko’s request, but it would be deployed only if needed. On Monday Russia will send paratroopers to Belarus for joint “Slavic brotherhood” military drills until Sept. 25, RIA news agency quoted the defence ministry as saying.
Russia has also offered to restructure Belarusian debt and support the banking system.
The cost of further Moscow backing could be Lukashenko’s acceptance of even greater Russian dominance in the relationship between the two countries.
The Kremlin has long pushed for closer political and economic integration with Minsk, including a joint currency, but Lukashenko has resisted the pressure from his more powerful neighbour.
Yet the veteran Belarusian leader’s position could become increasingly precarious should the protests persist, and grow.
Sunday’s demonstration was one of the biggest yet.
“We have to show with this march that he doesn’t control the country, that he is not in a position to speak on behalf of Belarusians,” said Gennady, 35, a logistics worker who declined to give his last name.
Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Pravin Char
Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.
uk.reuters.com
jward
passin' thru
Not looking good
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
danielboon
TB Fanatic
The Intel Crab Retweeted
Alex Kokcharov
@AlexKokcharov
·
Sep 14
Putin-Lukashenka negotiations in Sochi today are getting ever more curious - based on the body language:
Alex Kokcharov
@AlexKokcharov
·
Sep 14
Putin-Lukashenka negotiations in Sochi today are getting ever more curious - based on the body language:
danielboon
TB Fanatic
The Intel Crab Retweeted
marqs
@MarQs__
·
18h
#Russia announced that it will withdraw the reserve unit of security forces stationed at the border with #Belarus at the request of #Lukashenko
marqs
@MarQs__
·
18h
#Russia announced that it will withdraw the reserve unit of security forces stationed at the border with #Belarus at the request of #Lukashenko
jward
passin' thru
Aki Heikkinen
@akihheikkinen
Belarus does not rule out 'forceful response' to military threats Any threat would be met with a response within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)
View: https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1305910080030769153?s=20
@akihheikkinen
Belarus does not rule out 'forceful response' to military threats Any threat would be met with a response within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)
View: https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1305910080030769153?s=20
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Belarus Warning Update: Putin Sends Airborne Troops to Belarus Exercise—and a Message to Lukashenko
September 15, 2020, 5:00 pm EDT
Iswresearch.org
By George Barros
Moscow has modified the prescheduled Slavic Brotherhood military exercises in Belarus to demonstrate its ability to deploy forces to Belarus on short notice. Elements of Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division arrived in Belarus for the Slavic Brotherhood 2020 exercises on September 15.[1] Russia has not deployed significant conventional forces to Belarus since the start of protests on August 9.[2] The number of Russian troops in the exercises is unclear.[3]
The Kremlin likely increased the duration of the preplanned Russian deployment to Belarus on short notice. The exercises were scheduled to run September 10-15 and include Serbian forces.[4] The Kremlin expanded the exercises to September 14-25 on September 13, four days after Serbia canceled its participation.[5] Moscow announced the participation of the 76th Airborne Division at that time, fewer than 48 hours before its arrival in Belarus (although the division could have been alerted to prepare for deployment earlier than that). The Kremlin says the division elements will return to Russia after the Slavic Brotherhood exercises end.[6]
The 76th Guards Air Assault Division is an experienced expeditionary force based in Pskov near the Estonian and Latvian borders. Elements of the division participated in Kremlin operations in both Chechen wars, Kosovo, Georgia, and the annexation of Crimea.[7] This unit has additionally previously operated in Belarus; elements conducted exercises in Brest in April 2018.[8] The Kremlin likely conducted the short-notice deployment to remind Lukashenko that Russia can deploy forces into Belarus rapidly if Lukashenko does not follow through on the concessions he likely made during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on September 14.[9]
The Kremlin’s overt information operations have emphasized de-escalation, however. Russia staged an ostentatious withdrawal of the previously announced Russian law enforcement officer reserve from the Russian-Belarusian border on September 15.[10] Putin confirmed the existence of this reserve and that it was prepared to deploy to Belarus if the situation “gets out of control” on August 27.[11] The demobilization of this reserve is largely symbolic, as it was mobilized quickly and could thus likely be rapidly reconstituted.
The Kremlin denies it pressured Lukashenko during his meeting with Putin on September 14. The Kremlin denied that Lukashenko and Putin discussed military basing rights in Belarus and claimed Russia’s $1.5 billion loan to Belarus had no political conditions.[12] Neither assertion is particularly credible. The loan helped cover a potential crisis in Belarusian reserves that will likely re-emerge. Even if Putin demanded no specific quid pro quo on this occasion, he will likely have the opportunity to do so in the near future. The Kremlin has made multiple unsuccessful attempts to open a strategic airbase in Belarus since 2015 and likely has not dropped its demands.[13]
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Russian airborne infantry (VDV) personnel conducted army games exercises in Brest Belarus, on August 27. These army games exercises were insignificant, however. https://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12310460@egNews
[3] The Kremlin stated approximately 1,500 Russian and Belarusian forces will participate in the exercises. https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[4] https://tass(.)com/defense/1198433; https://eng.belta(.)by/society/view/slavic-brotherhood-2020-exercise-to-be-held-at-brestsky-training-range-in-belarus-133255-2020/
[5] https://tass(.)com/defense/1200237; https://tass(.)ru/armiya-i-opk/9440765; Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[6] https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[7] https://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/world/more.htm?id=11980809; https://informpskov(.)ru/news/164536.html; https://charter97(.)org/ru/news/2018/4/6/285494/
[8] https://charter97(.)org/ru/news/2018/4/6/285494/
[9] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Softens His Opposition to Protests, Seeking Leverage against Increased Russian Pressure
[10] Kremlin-run media depicted unliveried Russian law enforcement personnel in unmarked trucks returning to their garrisons from an unspecified location on the Russian-Belarusian border on September 15. https://www.kommersant(.)ru/doc/4492669; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/2458296; https://t(.)me/sputnikby/6140
[11] Warning: Kremlin Announces Reserve Force is Prepared to Intervene in Belarus
[12] https://sputnik(.)by/politics/20200915/1045686146/Peskov-rasskazal-o-peregovorakh-Putina-i-Lukashenko.html; https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[13] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html; https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 5:08 PM
www.iswresearch.org
September 15, 2020, 5:00 pm EDT
Iswresearch.org
By George Barros
Moscow has modified the prescheduled Slavic Brotherhood military exercises in Belarus to demonstrate its ability to deploy forces to Belarus on short notice. Elements of Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division arrived in Belarus for the Slavic Brotherhood 2020 exercises on September 15.[1] Russia has not deployed significant conventional forces to Belarus since the start of protests on August 9.[2] The number of Russian troops in the exercises is unclear.[3]
The Kremlin likely increased the duration of the preplanned Russian deployment to Belarus on short notice. The exercises were scheduled to run September 10-15 and include Serbian forces.[4] The Kremlin expanded the exercises to September 14-25 on September 13, four days after Serbia canceled its participation.[5] Moscow announced the participation of the 76th Airborne Division at that time, fewer than 48 hours before its arrival in Belarus (although the division could have been alerted to prepare for deployment earlier than that). The Kremlin says the division elements will return to Russia after the Slavic Brotherhood exercises end.[6]
The 76th Guards Air Assault Division is an experienced expeditionary force based in Pskov near the Estonian and Latvian borders. Elements of the division participated in Kremlin operations in both Chechen wars, Kosovo, Georgia, and the annexation of Crimea.[7] This unit has additionally previously operated in Belarus; elements conducted exercises in Brest in April 2018.[8] The Kremlin likely conducted the short-notice deployment to remind Lukashenko that Russia can deploy forces into Belarus rapidly if Lukashenko does not follow through on the concessions he likely made during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on September 14.[9]
The Kremlin’s overt information operations have emphasized de-escalation, however. Russia staged an ostentatious withdrawal of the previously announced Russian law enforcement officer reserve from the Russian-Belarusian border on September 15.[10] Putin confirmed the existence of this reserve and that it was prepared to deploy to Belarus if the situation “gets out of control” on August 27.[11] The demobilization of this reserve is largely symbolic, as it was mobilized quickly and could thus likely be rapidly reconstituted.
The Kremlin denies it pressured Lukashenko during his meeting with Putin on September 14. The Kremlin denied that Lukashenko and Putin discussed military basing rights in Belarus and claimed Russia’s $1.5 billion loan to Belarus had no political conditions.[12] Neither assertion is particularly credible. The loan helped cover a potential crisis in Belarusian reserves that will likely re-emerge. Even if Putin demanded no specific quid pro quo on this occasion, he will likely have the opportunity to do so in the near future. The Kremlin has made multiple unsuccessful attempts to open a strategic airbase in Belarus since 2015 and likely has not dropped its demands.[13]
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[1] https://eng.belta(.)by/society/view/russian-paratroopers-arrive-in-brest-oblast-to-participate-in-army-exercise-133465-2020/; https://iz(.)ru/1060848/2020-09-15/rossiiskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiiu-na-sovmestnye-ucheniia[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Russian airborne infantry (VDV) personnel conducted army games exercises in Brest Belarus, on August 27. These army games exercises were insignificant, however. https://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12310460@egNews
[3] The Kremlin stated approximately 1,500 Russian and Belarusian forces will participate in the exercises. https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[4] https://tass(.)com/defense/1198433; https://eng.belta(.)by/society/view/slavic-brotherhood-2020-exercise-to-be-held-at-brestsky-training-range-in-belarus-133255-2020/
[5] https://tass(.)com/defense/1200237; https://tass(.)ru/armiya-i-opk/9440765; Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
[6] https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[7] https://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/world/more.htm?id=11980809; https://informpskov(.)ru/news/164536.html; https://charter97(.)org/ru/news/2018/4/6/285494/
[8] https://charter97(.)org/ru/news/2018/4/6/285494/
[9] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Softens His Opposition to Protests, Seeking Leverage against Increased Russian Pressure
[10] Kremlin-run media depicted unliveried Russian law enforcement personnel in unmarked trucks returning to their garrisons from an unspecified location on the Russian-Belarusian border on September 15. https://www.kommersant(.)ru/doc/4492669; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/2458296; https://t(.)me/sputnikby/6140
[11] Warning: Kremlin Announces Reserve Force is Prepared to Intervene in Belarus
[12] https://sputnik(.)by/politics/20200915/1045686146/Peskov-rasskazal-o-peregovorakh-Putina-i-Lukashenko.html; https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[13] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html; https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 5:08 PM
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Russian loan won't keep Lukashenko afloat for long
By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Katya Golubkova
September 15, 202012:05 PM Updated 10 hours ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A $1.5 billion (1.16 billion pounds) loan from Russia will shore up Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for the time being as he tries to face down mass protests, but not for long.
FILE PHOTO: Russia's President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting in Sochi, Russia September 14, 2020, in this still image taken from a video. Russian Presidential Executive Office/Handout via REUTERS
Lukashenko, whose security forces have arrested thousands of opposition supporters demanding his resignation, secured the financial lifeline from Russian President Vladimir Putin at a Black Sea summit on Monday.
But the actual cash available to him - for example, to pay his police force or raise salaries to lure back striking workers - will be much smaller than the headline figure.
According to Artyom Shraibman, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, only a fraction of the funds will actually make it to Minsk, given it needs to refinance another $1 billion in loans, including from Russia, and pay $300 million of debt to Russian energy giant Gazprom by the end of the year.
“In reality this is money being transferred from one Russian pocket to another,” said Pavel Latushko, a prominent member of the Belarusian opposition council.
Sofia Donets, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said: “The loan is basically not new money, but the refinancing of the existing debt of Belarus (to Russia), part of which is repayable next year.”
Almost half of the total external public debt of Belarus is due to Russia, she said. It faces external debt payments of about $2.6 billion next year, mainly split between Russia and China.
WORSENING ECONOMY
Besides facing the gravest political crisis of his 26-year rule, Lukashenko is in deepening economic trouble.
Gross Domestic Product fell 1.3% between January and August, the official news agency Belta said on Tuesday. In August alone, the central bank burned through $1.4 billion, or about a sixth of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, as it fought to shore up the rouble currency.
Belarusian companies and banks are also highly exposed. Russian credit ratings agency ACRA said they had external debt of about $9 billion as of July 1, and the government may end up shouldering some of that because of their limited scope to reschedule during the current crisis.
ACRA estimates Belarusian debt to Russia at around $7.9 billion, or 12-13% of GDP as of April 1 this year.
Lukashenko has relied heavily for the past two decades on Russian financial support for Belarus’s stagnating economy. By some estimates he has received more than $100 billion over that period, mainly in oil and gas subsidies.
He has taken advantage of the fact that Russia needs its small neighbour as a buffer against NATO and an export route for its oil and gas. And Putin has no desire to see another neighbouring leader toppled by demonstrators, as happened with the ‘Maidan’ protests in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in 2014.
Putin “has to support him, because if he doesn’t, this regime will collapse,” said political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.
“For the Kremlin this is a very dangerous example of what could be used in Russia,” he added. “People will see that it’s possible to change leaders with mass protests.”
For that reason, the fates of the two presidents are bound together, analysts said.
Although Lukashenko would have wanted more funds from Moscow, both he and Putin got something important from Monday’s encounter, said Ryhor Astapenia of London’s Chatham House think-tank.
“Lukashenko is saved, economically speaking, for at least some time,” he said. “And Putin feels sure that Russian influence will increase in Belarus.”
Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Tatiana Voronova; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Peter Graff
uk.reuters.com
By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Katya Golubkova
September 15, 202012:05 PM Updated 10 hours ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A $1.5 billion (1.16 billion pounds) loan from Russia will shore up Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for the time being as he tries to face down mass protests, but not for long.
FILE PHOTO: Russia's President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting in Sochi, Russia September 14, 2020, in this still image taken from a video. Russian Presidential Executive Office/Handout via REUTERS
Lukashenko, whose security forces have arrested thousands of opposition supporters demanding his resignation, secured the financial lifeline from Russian President Vladimir Putin at a Black Sea summit on Monday.
But the actual cash available to him - for example, to pay his police force or raise salaries to lure back striking workers - will be much smaller than the headline figure.
According to Artyom Shraibman, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, only a fraction of the funds will actually make it to Minsk, given it needs to refinance another $1 billion in loans, including from Russia, and pay $300 million of debt to Russian energy giant Gazprom by the end of the year.
“In reality this is money being transferred from one Russian pocket to another,” said Pavel Latushko, a prominent member of the Belarusian opposition council.
Sofia Donets, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said: “The loan is basically not new money, but the refinancing of the existing debt of Belarus (to Russia), part of which is repayable next year.”
Almost half of the total external public debt of Belarus is due to Russia, she said. It faces external debt payments of about $2.6 billion next year, mainly split between Russia and China.
WORSENING ECONOMY
Besides facing the gravest political crisis of his 26-year rule, Lukashenko is in deepening economic trouble.
Gross Domestic Product fell 1.3% between January and August, the official news agency Belta said on Tuesday. In August alone, the central bank burned through $1.4 billion, or about a sixth of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, as it fought to shore up the rouble currency.
Belarusian companies and banks are also highly exposed. Russian credit ratings agency ACRA said they had external debt of about $9 billion as of July 1, and the government may end up shouldering some of that because of their limited scope to reschedule during the current crisis.
ACRA estimates Belarusian debt to Russia at around $7.9 billion, or 12-13% of GDP as of April 1 this year.
Lukashenko has relied heavily for the past two decades on Russian financial support for Belarus’s stagnating economy. By some estimates he has received more than $100 billion over that period, mainly in oil and gas subsidies.
He has taken advantage of the fact that Russia needs its small neighbour as a buffer against NATO and an export route for its oil and gas. And Putin has no desire to see another neighbouring leader toppled by demonstrators, as happened with the ‘Maidan’ protests in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in 2014.
Putin “has to support him, because if he doesn’t, this regime will collapse,” said political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.
“For the Kremlin this is a very dangerous example of what could be used in Russia,” he added. “People will see that it’s possible to change leaders with mass protests.”
For that reason, the fates of the two presidents are bound together, analysts said.
Although Lukashenko would have wanted more funds from Moscow, both he and Putin got something important from Monday’s encounter, said Ryhor Astapenia of London’s Chatham House think-tank.
“Lukashenko is saved, economically speaking, for at least some time,” he said. “And Putin feels sure that Russian influence will increase in Belarus.”
Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Tatiana Voronova; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Peter Graff
Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.
uk.reuters.com
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Putin Offers Belarus Regime a Billion-Dollar Loan
Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File
Gabrielle Reyes15 Sep 20200
Breitbart.com / national-security
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Belarus a billion-dollar loan on Monday while hosting the country’s embattled leader at his residence in Sochi, Russia.
The visit marked Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko’s first foreign trip since protests erupted in his country over a month ago demanding that he resign.
“Russia will issue a loan of $1.5 billion dollars [to Belarus] … Now, our finance ministers are … working on that,” Putin told Lukashenko, according to video footage of the meeting published by RT, Russia’s state-run news agency.
“[W]e will also need to continue our collaboration in the military area,” Putin continued. “Today we are starting exercises that we have planned last year that will take a couple of days. And, once again, I would like to say to avoid any kind of speculations, these exercises were planned and even announced last year.”
Putin was careful not to frame his offers of financial and military aid to Belarus as support for Lukashenko to maintain power in the face of mounting opposition to his rule. Rather, he argued that Russia pledged the aid to fulfill “obligations” the nation has previously made toward Belarus, which he described as Russia’s “closest ally.”
Putin referred to the close relationship the two countries maintain under the terms of a 1999 Treaty on the Creation of a Union State between Russia and Belarus, which “calls for cooperation on foreign policy, defense, [and] social and economic policies” between the two states to create “a unified parliament and a single currency in the future,” according to the Observer Research Foundation.
The Russian president specifically mentioned the “Union State treaty” on Monday, referencing the “integration” between the two states that the agreement calls for. According to some observers, Putin pushes to fulfill the pact’s obligations in the hopes of reunifying Belarus with Russia to form a supra-state. The two leaders previously met in Sochi in early February for similar talks in which Putin pressed Lukashenko to further integrate with Russia according to the pact’s requisites. However, over two decades since the treaty’s signing, it continues to exist largely “on paper, partly because in the past Lukashenko has been reluctant to cede power,” the Guardian claimed.
Putin also addressed the ongoing protests in Belarus calling for Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for 26 years as president, to step down. The unrest started after an August 9 presidential election saw Lukashenko elected to a sixth consecutive term in office. Dissidents took to the streets that same day, accusing the state election committee of falsifying the vote, launching a protest movement that has continued unabated since then.
“You know our position very well. We stand for … Belarussians by themselves, without any interference, engaging in a dialogue [to] calmly find a solution, find a common ground on how to build or work in the future. We know about your suggestion to start work on the constitution, we think it makes sense,” Putin said, referring to Lukashenko’s offer to reform the constitution in response to the anti-government protests.
www.breitbart.com
Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File
Gabrielle Reyes15 Sep 20200
Breitbart.com / national-security
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Belarus a billion-dollar loan on Monday while hosting the country’s embattled leader at his residence in Sochi, Russia.
The visit marked Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko’s first foreign trip since protests erupted in his country over a month ago demanding that he resign.
“Russia will issue a loan of $1.5 billion dollars [to Belarus] … Now, our finance ministers are … working on that,” Putin told Lukashenko, according to video footage of the meeting published by RT, Russia’s state-run news agency.
“[W]e will also need to continue our collaboration in the military area,” Putin continued. “Today we are starting exercises that we have planned last year that will take a couple of days. And, once again, I would like to say to avoid any kind of speculations, these exercises were planned and even announced last year.”
Putin was careful not to frame his offers of financial and military aid to Belarus as support for Lukashenko to maintain power in the face of mounting opposition to his rule. Rather, he argued that Russia pledged the aid to fulfill “obligations” the nation has previously made toward Belarus, which he described as Russia’s “closest ally.”
Putin referred to the close relationship the two countries maintain under the terms of a 1999 Treaty on the Creation of a Union State between Russia and Belarus, which “calls for cooperation on foreign policy, defense, [and] social and economic policies” between the two states to create “a unified parliament and a single currency in the future,” according to the Observer Research Foundation.
The Russian president specifically mentioned the “Union State treaty” on Monday, referencing the “integration” between the two states that the agreement calls for. According to some observers, Putin pushes to fulfill the pact’s obligations in the hopes of reunifying Belarus with Russia to form a supra-state. The two leaders previously met in Sochi in early February for similar talks in which Putin pressed Lukashenko to further integrate with Russia according to the pact’s requisites. However, over two decades since the treaty’s signing, it continues to exist largely “on paper, partly because in the past Lukashenko has been reluctant to cede power,” the Guardian claimed.
Putin also addressed the ongoing protests in Belarus calling for Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for 26 years as president, to step down. The unrest started after an August 9 presidential election saw Lukashenko elected to a sixth consecutive term in office. Dissidents took to the streets that same day, accusing the state election committee of falsifying the vote, launching a protest movement that has continued unabated since then.
“You know our position very well. We stand for … Belarussians by themselves, without any interference, engaging in a dialogue [to] calmly find a solution, find a common ground on how to build or work in the future. We know about your suggestion to start work on the constitution, we think it makes sense,” Putin said, referring to Lukashenko’s offer to reform the constitution in response to the anti-government protests.
Putin Offers Belarus Regime a Billion-Dollar Loan
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Belarus a billion-dollar loan on Monday while hosting the country's embattled leader in Sochi.
www.breitbart.com
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15m
Lukashenka announced that Belarus was closing the border with Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1306646432355700743?s=20
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Belarus president closes some borders, puts army on alert,
Belarus' president, beleaguered by six weeks of large protests calling for his resignation, says he is putting troops on alert and closing the country's borders with Poland and Lithuania
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
17 September 2020
The Associated Press
Riot police officers detain a protester during a Belarusian opposition supporters' rally protesting the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, September 13, 2020. Protests calling for the Belarusian president's resignation have broken out daily since the August 9 presidential election that officials say handed him a sixth term in office. (AP Photo)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarus’ president, beleaguered by six weeks of mass protests demanding his resignation, on Thursday announced he was putting troops on high alert and closing the country’s borders with Poland and Lithuania.
President Alexander Lukashenko’s decision underlines his repeated claim that the wave of protests is driven by the West. He faces increasing criticism from the United States and the European Union.
Protests began after the August 9 presidential election that official results say gave the authoritarian leader a sixth term in office; opponents say the results were manipulated.
"We are forced to withdraw troops from the streets, put the army on high alert and close the state border on the west, primarily with Lithuania and Poland," Lukashenko said at a women's forum.
Lukashenko also said Belarus' border with Ukraine would be strengthened.
“I don’t want my country to be at war. Moreover, I don’t want Belarus and Poland, Lithuania to turn into a theater of military operations where our issues will not be resolved,” he said. "Therefore, today in front of this hall of the most beautiful, advanced, patriotic people I want to appeal to the peoples of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine — stop your crazy politicians, don’t let war break out! ”
He did not mention neighboring Latvia, which like Poland and Lithuania is a NATO member.
Earlier Thursday, the main opposition candidate in the disputed presidential election said that activists are compiling a list of law enforcement officers who were allegedly involved in violence against protesters denouncing the results of the vote.
Nearly 7,000 people were detained and hundreds were brutally beaten by police during the first several days of post-election protests.
Lukashenko's main challenger in the election, former English teacher and political novice Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said "we have been given the names of those who were beating and torturing people. We are preparing a list of officials and law enforcement officers who have taken part in lawless repressions.”
Human rights groups are working with opposition activists to identify the officers and officials, Tsikhanouskaya said, adding that the list will be shared with the United States, the European Union and Russia.
Tsikhanouskaya, who left for Lithuania in the wake of the election under pressure from Belarusian authorities, said the opposition will name the list in honor of Alexander Taraikovsky, a protester who died in Minsk the day after the election as police dispersed peaceful demonstrators.
Authorities initially said an explosive device Taraikovsky intended to throw at police blew up in his hands and killed him. However, Associated Press video showed he was not holding any explosives when he fell to the ground, his shirt bloodied.
Belarusian authorities later acknowledged that Taraikovsky might have been killed by a rubber bullet. The street in the capital of Minsk where Taraikovsky died turned into a pilgrimage site, with thousands of people, including European ambassadors, laying flowers there.
After the initial broad crackdown on protests, Belarusian authorities changed tactics and tried to end displays of dissent with the selective detentions of demonstrators and the jailing of opposition leaders.
The U.S. and the EU have criticized the presidential election as neither free nor fair, and urged Lukashenko to start talks with the opposition — a call he has rejected. Washington and Brussels have been pondering sanctions against Belarusian officials for alleged vote-rigging and the violent response to protests.
On Thursday, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution rejecting the official election results and saying it would not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president once his current term expires Nov. 5.
Belarus' foreign ministry responded strongly, saying: “We are disappointed that the European Parliament, positioning itself as a serious, objective and democratic structure, could not find the political will to look beyond its nose, overcome one-sidedness and not become a hostage to conventional cliches.”
Russia, Lukashenko’s main ally and sponsor, has maintained staunch support for the Belarusian leader. Moscow announced this week it would offer a new $1.5 billion loan to his government.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Friday during a trip to Lithuania that the two countries — both Belarus' neighbors — will continue to offer medical and material assistance to Belarusians who were hurt and persecuted during the protests. He argued that the EU and international lenders should offer at least 1 billion euros in economic support for Belarus and its businesses.
“It is crucial for Europe to be aware of how important a free and sovereign Belarus is for the security and the welfare of our entire continent,” Morawiecki said.
———
Vladimir Isachenkov and Jim Heintz in Moscow and Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland contributed to this report.
————
Follow all AP stories about the turmoil in Belarus at Belarus
abcnews.go.com
Belarus' president, beleaguered by six weeks of large protests calling for his resignation, says he is putting troops on alert and closing the country's borders with Poland and Lithuania
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
17 September 2020
Riot police officers detain a protester during a Belarusian opposition supporters' rally protesting the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, September 13, 2020. Protests calling for the Belarusian president's resignation have broken out daily since the August 9 presidential election that officials say handed him a sixth term in office. (AP Photo)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarus’ president, beleaguered by six weeks of mass protests demanding his resignation, on Thursday announced he was putting troops on high alert and closing the country’s borders with Poland and Lithuania.
President Alexander Lukashenko’s decision underlines his repeated claim that the wave of protests is driven by the West. He faces increasing criticism from the United States and the European Union.
Protests began after the August 9 presidential election that official results say gave the authoritarian leader a sixth term in office; opponents say the results were manipulated.
"We are forced to withdraw troops from the streets, put the army on high alert and close the state border on the west, primarily with Lithuania and Poland," Lukashenko said at a women's forum.
Lukashenko also said Belarus' border with Ukraine would be strengthened.
“I don’t want my country to be at war. Moreover, I don’t want Belarus and Poland, Lithuania to turn into a theater of military operations where our issues will not be resolved,” he said. "Therefore, today in front of this hall of the most beautiful, advanced, patriotic people I want to appeal to the peoples of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine — stop your crazy politicians, don’t let war break out! ”
He did not mention neighboring Latvia, which like Poland and Lithuania is a NATO member.
Earlier Thursday, the main opposition candidate in the disputed presidential election said that activists are compiling a list of law enforcement officers who were allegedly involved in violence against protesters denouncing the results of the vote.
Nearly 7,000 people were detained and hundreds were brutally beaten by police during the first several days of post-election protests.
Lukashenko's main challenger in the election, former English teacher and political novice Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said "we have been given the names of those who were beating and torturing people. We are preparing a list of officials and law enforcement officers who have taken part in lawless repressions.”
Human rights groups are working with opposition activists to identify the officers and officials, Tsikhanouskaya said, adding that the list will be shared with the United States, the European Union and Russia.
Tsikhanouskaya, who left for Lithuania in the wake of the election under pressure from Belarusian authorities, said the opposition will name the list in honor of Alexander Taraikovsky, a protester who died in Minsk the day after the election as police dispersed peaceful demonstrators.
Authorities initially said an explosive device Taraikovsky intended to throw at police blew up in his hands and killed him. However, Associated Press video showed he was not holding any explosives when he fell to the ground, his shirt bloodied.
Belarusian authorities later acknowledged that Taraikovsky might have been killed by a rubber bullet. The street in the capital of Minsk where Taraikovsky died turned into a pilgrimage site, with thousands of people, including European ambassadors, laying flowers there.
After the initial broad crackdown on protests, Belarusian authorities changed tactics and tried to end displays of dissent with the selective detentions of demonstrators and the jailing of opposition leaders.
The U.S. and the EU have criticized the presidential election as neither free nor fair, and urged Lukashenko to start talks with the opposition — a call he has rejected. Washington and Brussels have been pondering sanctions against Belarusian officials for alleged vote-rigging and the violent response to protests.
On Thursday, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution rejecting the official election results and saying it would not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president once his current term expires Nov. 5.
Belarus' foreign ministry responded strongly, saying: “We are disappointed that the European Parliament, positioning itself as a serious, objective and democratic structure, could not find the political will to look beyond its nose, overcome one-sidedness and not become a hostage to conventional cliches.”
Russia, Lukashenko’s main ally and sponsor, has maintained staunch support for the Belarusian leader. Moscow announced this week it would offer a new $1.5 billion loan to his government.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Friday during a trip to Lithuania that the two countries — both Belarus' neighbors — will continue to offer medical and material assistance to Belarusians who were hurt and persecuted during the protests. He argued that the EU and international lenders should offer at least 1 billion euros in economic support for Belarus and its businesses.
“It is crucial for Europe to be aware of how important a free and sovereign Belarus is for the security and the welfare of our entire continent,” Morawiecki said.
———
Vladimir Isachenkov and Jim Heintz in Moscow and Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland contributed to this report.
————
Follow all AP stories about the turmoil in Belarus at Belarus
Belarus president closes some borders, puts army on alert
Belarus' president, beleaguered by six weeks of large protests calling for his resignation, says he is putting troops on alert and closing the country's borders with Poland and Lithuania
abcnews.go.com
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Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus
Iswresearch.org
September 16, 2020, 5:45 pm EDT
By George Barros and Mason Clark
The Kremlin qualified Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s claim he requested Russian weapons from Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 16. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Lukashenko in Minsk on September 16, likely to implement military cooperation concessions Lukashenko made to Putin during their September 14 meeting in Sochi.[1] Lukashenko said he asked Putin for weapons to "strengthen the Union State plan" on September 16.[2] Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov qualified Lukashenko’s statement in a response to a reporter, saying Lukashenko did not ask Putin for a “weapons delivery” “in the way you [the reporter] phrased.”[3] The Kremlin rarely qualifies its denials of claims by other actors based on the language used by individual reporters. Peskov’s attention to avoiding a full denial but disputing the reporters’ question if Lukashenko requested a “weapons delivery” indicates the Kremlin is attempting to shift Lukashenko’s framing.
Lukashenko likely phrased his request for Russian weapons to suggest Belarusian forces would control Russian weapons systems sent to Belarus as a result of the agreements. Peskov likely qualified the reporters’ phrasing of Lukashenko’s statement to avoid committing the Kremlin to giving the Belarusian military new equipment – instead setting conditions for the Kremlin to retain control over weapon systems deployed to Belarus.
The Kremlin likely seeks to control anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus.[4] The Belarusian Defense Ministry reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems with the holding company for the manufacturers of the Russian S-300, S-400, and S-500 air-defense systems in August 2020.[5] Lukashenko previously rejected S-400 systems in Belarus in February 2020.[6] The Kremlin likely seeks to integrate Belarus’ currently independent air defense systems into Russia’s own national air defense system, which would give Moscow control over their employment.[7] Such integration would enhance Russian capabilities to contest NATO airspace and degrade NATO’s ability to defend the Baltics.
Lukashenko markedly changed his framing of military cooperation with Russia following his September 14 meeting with Putin. Lukashenko said Russia and Belarus must "more bravely defend” their joint interests on September 16.[8] Lukashenko has repeatedly declined the Kremlin’s multiple requests to expand strategic Russian airbases in Belarus since at least 2015.[9] Lukashenko said he would never agree to concessions that undermine Belarus’ independence in December 2019 – before the protests pushed him into crisis.[10] The Kremlin will likely continue leveraging Lukashenko’s vulnerability to the protest movement to further formalize Kremlin control over Belarus in the Union State.
Moscow will likely sustain its increased military presence and accelerate military cooperation in Belarus over the next several months. Lukashenko announced the next monthly Belarusian-Russian military exercise will occur in October 2020.[11] The elements of Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division currently in Belarus for Slavic Brotherhood 2020 exercises should in principle return to their home station when the exercise ends on September 25.[12] They could, however, remain if exercises are scheduled early in October, or other forces could replace them. Lukashenko said Moscow and Minsk must intensify their military cooperation by the end of 2020.[13] He appears to have conceded a nearly-continuous Russian military presence in Belarus under the guise of frequent exercises.
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[1] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Softens His Opposition to Protests, Seeking Leverage against Increased Russian Pressure
[2] https://sputnik(.)by/defense_safety/20200916/1045696519/Peskov-Lukashenko-na-vstreche-s-Putinym-ne-prosil-o-postavkakh-vooruzheniya.html; https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9473667; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020/; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/news/2020/09/16/14949241.shtml?updated;
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG_b3kGVxAA
[3] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to a press question on whether Lukashenko asked for Russian weapons, saying, “In the wording you said, no.” https://tass(.)ru/politika/9475065
[4] The Belarusian Defense Ministry reportedly signed a deal with the Kremlin-owned Almaz-Antey defense company on August 24 at the Army 2020 annual international military-technical forum in Moscow. The Belarusian defense minister reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems until 2025. Almaz-Antey is the holding company for the manufacturers of the S-300, S-400, and S-500 Russian air-defense systems. Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
[5] Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
[6] https://avia(.)pro/news/belorussiya-otkazalas-ot-pokupki-rossiyskih-s-400-zayaviv-ob-ih-bespoleznosti; https://bulgarianmilitary(.)com/2020/02/27/belarus-refused-to-buy-russian-s-400-missile-systems-because-they-are-useless/
[7] https://www.defenseworld(.)net/news/15992/Belarus_Receives_Fourth_Battalion_Of_S_300_PS_Air_Defense_Systems#.X2JRdmhKjcs
[8] https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9473667; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020/; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/news/2020/09/16/14949241.shtml?updated;
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG_b3kGVxAA
[9] https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml
[10] https://gordonua(.)com/news/worldnews/belarus-ne-sobiraetsya-vhodit-v-sostav-rossii-lukashenko-1478138.html;
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02lSOGrMsiA&feature=emb_title;
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tILkwwfnos
[11] https://russian.rt(.)com/ussr/news/783962-lukashenko-rossiya-shoigu
[12] https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[13] https://russian.rt(.)com/ussr/news/783962-lukashenko-rossiya-shoigu; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 5:39 PM
www.iswresearch.org
Iswresearch.org
September 16, 2020, 5:45 pm EDT
By George Barros and Mason Clark
The Kremlin qualified Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s claim he requested Russian weapons from Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 16. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Lukashenko in Minsk on September 16, likely to implement military cooperation concessions Lukashenko made to Putin during their September 14 meeting in Sochi.[1] Lukashenko said he asked Putin for weapons to "strengthen the Union State plan" on September 16.[2] Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov qualified Lukashenko’s statement in a response to a reporter, saying Lukashenko did not ask Putin for a “weapons delivery” “in the way you [the reporter] phrased.”[3] The Kremlin rarely qualifies its denials of claims by other actors based on the language used by individual reporters. Peskov’s attention to avoiding a full denial but disputing the reporters’ question if Lukashenko requested a “weapons delivery” indicates the Kremlin is attempting to shift Lukashenko’s framing.
Lukashenko likely phrased his request for Russian weapons to suggest Belarusian forces would control Russian weapons systems sent to Belarus as a result of the agreements. Peskov likely qualified the reporters’ phrasing of Lukashenko’s statement to avoid committing the Kremlin to giving the Belarusian military new equipment – instead setting conditions for the Kremlin to retain control over weapon systems deployed to Belarus.
The Kremlin likely seeks to control anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus.[4] The Belarusian Defense Ministry reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems with the holding company for the manufacturers of the Russian S-300, S-400, and S-500 air-defense systems in August 2020.[5] Lukashenko previously rejected S-400 systems in Belarus in February 2020.[6] The Kremlin likely seeks to integrate Belarus’ currently independent air defense systems into Russia’s own national air defense system, which would give Moscow control over their employment.[7] Such integration would enhance Russian capabilities to contest NATO airspace and degrade NATO’s ability to defend the Baltics.
Lukashenko markedly changed his framing of military cooperation with Russia following his September 14 meeting with Putin. Lukashenko said Russia and Belarus must "more bravely defend” their joint interests on September 16.[8] Lukashenko has repeatedly declined the Kremlin’s multiple requests to expand strategic Russian airbases in Belarus since at least 2015.[9] Lukashenko said he would never agree to concessions that undermine Belarus’ independence in December 2019 – before the protests pushed him into crisis.[10] The Kremlin will likely continue leveraging Lukashenko’s vulnerability to the protest movement to further formalize Kremlin control over Belarus in the Union State.
Moscow will likely sustain its increased military presence and accelerate military cooperation in Belarus over the next several months. Lukashenko announced the next monthly Belarusian-Russian military exercise will occur in October 2020.[11] The elements of Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division currently in Belarus for Slavic Brotherhood 2020 exercises should in principle return to their home station when the exercise ends on September 25.[12] They could, however, remain if exercises are scheduled early in October, or other forces could replace them. Lukashenko said Moscow and Minsk must intensify their military cooperation by the end of 2020.[13] He appears to have conceded a nearly-continuous Russian military presence in Belarus under the guise of frequent exercises.
ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.
[1] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Softens His Opposition to Protests, Seeking Leverage against Increased Russian Pressure
[2] https://sputnik(.)by/defense_safety/20200916/1045696519/Peskov-Lukashenko-na-vstreche-s-Putinym-ne-prosil-o-postavkakh-vooruzheniya.html; https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9473667; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020/; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/news/2020/09/16/14949241.shtml?updated;
[3] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to a press question on whether Lukashenko asked for Russian weapons, saying, “In the wording you said, no.” https://tass(.)ru/politika/9475065
[4] The Belarusian Defense Ministry reportedly signed a deal with the Kremlin-owned Almaz-Antey defense company on August 24 at the Army 2020 annual international military-technical forum in Moscow. The Belarusian defense minister reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems until 2025. Almaz-Antey is the holding company for the manufacturers of the S-300, S-400, and S-500 Russian air-defense systems. Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
[5] Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
[6] https://avia(.)pro/news/belorussiya-otkazalas-ot-pokupki-rossiyskih-s-400-zayaviv-ob-ih-bespoleznosti; https://bulgarianmilitary(.)com/2020/02/27/belarus-refused-to-buy-russian-s-400-missile-systems-because-they-are-useless/
[7] https://www.defenseworld(.)net/news/15992/Belarus_Receives_Fourth_Battalion_Of_S_300_PS_Air_Defense_Systems#.X2JRdmhKjcs
[8] https://tass(.)ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/9473667; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020/; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/news/2020/09/16/14949241.shtml?updated;
[9] https://www.rbc(.)ru/politics/06/10/2015/5613ebe59a794769839c9e3f; https://www.vesti(.)ru/article/1501418; https://www.gazeta(.)ru/army/2019/11/14/12811502.shtml
[10] https://gordonua(.)com/news/worldnews/belarus-ne-sobiraetsya-vhodit-v-sostav-rossii-lukashenko-1478138.html;
[11] https://russian.rt(.)com/ussr/news/783962-lukashenko-rossiya-shoigu
[12] https://www.interfax(.)ru/world/726986; https://meduza(.)io/news/2020/09/15/pskovskie-desantniki-pribyli-v-belorussiyu-dlya-uchastiya-v-ucheniyah-slavyanskoe-bratstvo
[13] https://russian.rt(.)com/ussr/news/783962-lukashenko-rossiya-shoigu; https://www.belta(.)by/president/view/svoi-interesy-my-dolzhny-bljusti-lukashenko-predlozhil-rossii-podumat-nad-novymi-voennymi-uchenijami-407000-2020
Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 5:39 PM
ISW Blog
northern watch
TB Fanatic
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Yet another area becoming inflamed tick tock.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Russia Reasserts Control Via Nonstop Military Exercises in Belarus
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 129
By: Pavel Felgenhauer
Jamestown.org
September 17, 2020 05:54 PM Age: 2 hours
Artillery firing drill as part of Slavic Brotherhood-2020 exercises (Source: TASS)
On September 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin met at his Sochi residence with his beleaguered Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who is under immense international and domestic pressure following the August 9 presidential elections. Lukashenka has ruled Belarus since 1994; last month, he claimed overwhelming victory, but a large number of Belarusians disagree. Minsk and multiple other Belarusian cities have seen weeks of massive protests and politically motivated industrial work stoppages. The Lukashenka regime has used brute force and intimidation against the opposition but so far failed to fully suppress this grassroots movement. The West does not recognize Lukashenka’s reelection, and the European Parliament overwhelmingly voted for sanctions to be imposed on him personally (Interfax, September 17). Putin congratulated Lukashenka after the August 9 election and reiterated his support in Sochi. The Belarusian economy has been double-stricken by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the recent civil/political unrest. During the Monday summit, it was announced that Moscow will provide $1.5 billion in additional financial support as well as that the two countries will boost their military cooperation (Kremlin.ru, September 14; see EDM, September 16).
Putin still does not seem to like or trust Lukashenka. Before traveling to Sochi, Belarus’s president told a group of pro-Kremlin Russian journalists that integration with Russia into a Union State is impossible as envisaged by the framework treaty signed in 1999 and ratified in 2002. That document calls for a deep federation with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, military, citizenship and currency. Moscow has blamed Lukashenka for the collapse of the Union State dream. Today, under duress, Lukashenka is offering Russia further economic integration “on an equal bases,” but he continues to rule out full integration in a Union State because “no one in Belarus is ready to surrender sovereignty” (TASS, September 9). An integrated Union State with Belarus and possibly other parts of the post-Soviet space adjacent to Russia’s borders is the long-term strategic objective of the Kremlin; and Lukashenka’s sustained refusal to cooperate is presumably seen as unacceptable. Yet, at present, the Russian side has apparently decided that the anti-Lukashenka opposition is potentially a bigger nuisance than strongman Lukashenka himself. Regime collapse in Minsk is seen as a prerequisite to Belarus beginning to turn to the European Union and the West or toward becoming truly neutral—both absolutely unacceptable outcomes from Moscow’s standpoint. A politically wounded and isolated Lukashenka is likely to be tolerated only as long as there is no other viable option to replace him.
From the Sochi meeting came the announcement that a contingent of Russian forces, including National Guard (Rosgvardia) units, which had been concentrated on the Russo-Belarusian border in preparation to potentially prop up Lukashenka, were being withdrawn back to their barracks (Militarynews.ru, September 14). At the same time, however, a battalion of some 300 Russian paratroopers with heavy weapons arrived in Brest, near the Polish border, by railroad from Pskov to take part in the Slavic Brotherhood (Slavyanskoe Bratstvo) 2020 military exercise. Trilateral Slavic Brotherhood exercises have been held annually, since 2015, with Russia, Serbia and Belarus taking turns as hosts for the joint maneuvers. Slavic Brotherhood 2020 had been preplanned for September 2020, in Belarus, before the present crisis erupted; at the last moment, Belgrade decided not to participate, claiming EU political pressure. The Belarusian 38th Airmobile Brest Brigade contingent will take part in the upcoming Slavic Brotherhood drills, together with the Pskov paratroopers—in all, just over 800 men. But the political symbolism of Slavic Brotherhood as a demonstration of defiance of Western attempts at isolating the participating pariah states always massively overshadowed these exercises’ practical military significance (Interfax, September 15).
Throughout his 26-year rule, Lukashenka never spent much on his military: Belarusian defense spending is presently about 1 percent of GDP, or just over $500 million per year—many times lower than in Russia. The peacetime Belarusian Armed Forces are small in size and rely on conscripts, with only five full-strength brigades: three light and two mechanized. Instead, Lukashenka apparently prioritized the Belarusian KGB and other domestically oriented security services to control internal dissent. A militia-style contingent of reservists and a 120,000-strong territorial defense force were created to take up arms to defend against external threats. Unlike in Russia, however, those reservists are regularly called up for training, and the Belarusian arsenal of mostly Soviet-vintage equipment has evidently been kept in good usable condition. As a result, today, Lukashenka’s capabilities to suppress dissent are severely limited: He cannot call up and arm reservists or territorial militias to assist the overstretched KGB in defending the regime since those self-defense forces could easily turn against him. That is why Lukashenka today needs some sort of Russian military backup (Novaya Gazeta, August 6).
The relatively small Russian contingent to Slavic Brotherhood 2020 is led by the Airborne Forces’ (Vozdushno-Desantnye Voyska—VDV) deputy commander, Lieutenant General Andrei Kolzakov (Militarynews.ru, September 17). Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Minsk on September 16 for talks with Lukashenka, to follow up on the Sochi agreements. It was announced that Slavic Brotherhood 2020 will be prolonged at least until the end of September and maybe into October, followed up by other joint military exercises. This military activity will continue with the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Unbreakable Brotherhood (Nerushimoye Bratstvo) 2020 exercise, scheduled for October and also on Belarusian soil. It will bring together contingents from all CSTO member states: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (Militarynews.ru, September 16). Moreover, Minsk has sent a battalion of some 350 men to participate in the massive Caucasus (Kavkaz) 2020 military maneuvers in southern Russia (Militarynews.ru, September 15). Lukashenka announced at the meeting with Shoigu that he asked Putin for new weapons shipments; but whether he receives them anytime soon remains unclear. The Kremlin denied there was a pending arms agreement. Lukashenka is seen in Moscow as unreliable and does not have money for new Russian weapons anyway (Interfax, September 16).
It seems that, under the guise of effectively permanent military exercises, Moscow is mimicking in Belarus the transatlantic alliance’s heel-to-toe rotational deployments of relatively small tripwire forces in Central and Eastern Europe. Through these continual exercises, Russian forces will anchor Belarus within Moscow’s orbit and prevent any attempts by the West to intervene to support the Belarusian opposition—a possibility the Kremlin considers seriously. If the regime in Minsk begins to collapse or Lukashenka’s conscript/reservist forces waiver or turn against him, the Russian military presence may serve as a bridgehead for incoming reinforcements—echoing what occurred in 2014, during the Russian takeover of Crimea.
jamestown.org
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 129
By: Pavel Felgenhauer
Jamestown.org
September 17, 2020 05:54 PM Age: 2 hours
Artillery firing drill as part of Slavic Brotherhood-2020 exercises (Source: TASS)
On September 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin met at his Sochi residence with his beleaguered Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who is under immense international and domestic pressure following the August 9 presidential elections. Lukashenka has ruled Belarus since 1994; last month, he claimed overwhelming victory, but a large number of Belarusians disagree. Minsk and multiple other Belarusian cities have seen weeks of massive protests and politically motivated industrial work stoppages. The Lukashenka regime has used brute force and intimidation against the opposition but so far failed to fully suppress this grassroots movement. The West does not recognize Lukashenka’s reelection, and the European Parliament overwhelmingly voted for sanctions to be imposed on him personally (Interfax, September 17). Putin congratulated Lukashenka after the August 9 election and reiterated his support in Sochi. The Belarusian economy has been double-stricken by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the recent civil/political unrest. During the Monday summit, it was announced that Moscow will provide $1.5 billion in additional financial support as well as that the two countries will boost their military cooperation (Kremlin.ru, September 14; see EDM, September 16).
Putin still does not seem to like or trust Lukashenka. Before traveling to Sochi, Belarus’s president told a group of pro-Kremlin Russian journalists that integration with Russia into a Union State is impossible as envisaged by the framework treaty signed in 1999 and ratified in 2002. That document calls for a deep federation with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, military, citizenship and currency. Moscow has blamed Lukashenka for the collapse of the Union State dream. Today, under duress, Lukashenka is offering Russia further economic integration “on an equal bases,” but he continues to rule out full integration in a Union State because “no one in Belarus is ready to surrender sovereignty” (TASS, September 9). An integrated Union State with Belarus and possibly other parts of the post-Soviet space adjacent to Russia’s borders is the long-term strategic objective of the Kremlin; and Lukashenka’s sustained refusal to cooperate is presumably seen as unacceptable. Yet, at present, the Russian side has apparently decided that the anti-Lukashenka opposition is potentially a bigger nuisance than strongman Lukashenka himself. Regime collapse in Minsk is seen as a prerequisite to Belarus beginning to turn to the European Union and the West or toward becoming truly neutral—both absolutely unacceptable outcomes from Moscow’s standpoint. A politically wounded and isolated Lukashenka is likely to be tolerated only as long as there is no other viable option to replace him.
From the Sochi meeting came the announcement that a contingent of Russian forces, including National Guard (Rosgvardia) units, which had been concentrated on the Russo-Belarusian border in preparation to potentially prop up Lukashenka, were being withdrawn back to their barracks (Militarynews.ru, September 14). At the same time, however, a battalion of some 300 Russian paratroopers with heavy weapons arrived in Brest, near the Polish border, by railroad from Pskov to take part in the Slavic Brotherhood (Slavyanskoe Bratstvo) 2020 military exercise. Trilateral Slavic Brotherhood exercises have been held annually, since 2015, with Russia, Serbia and Belarus taking turns as hosts for the joint maneuvers. Slavic Brotherhood 2020 had been preplanned for September 2020, in Belarus, before the present crisis erupted; at the last moment, Belgrade decided not to participate, claiming EU political pressure. The Belarusian 38th Airmobile Brest Brigade contingent will take part in the upcoming Slavic Brotherhood drills, together with the Pskov paratroopers—in all, just over 800 men. But the political symbolism of Slavic Brotherhood as a demonstration of defiance of Western attempts at isolating the participating pariah states always massively overshadowed these exercises’ practical military significance (Interfax, September 15).
Throughout his 26-year rule, Lukashenka never spent much on his military: Belarusian defense spending is presently about 1 percent of GDP, or just over $500 million per year—many times lower than in Russia. The peacetime Belarusian Armed Forces are small in size and rely on conscripts, with only five full-strength brigades: three light and two mechanized. Instead, Lukashenka apparently prioritized the Belarusian KGB and other domestically oriented security services to control internal dissent. A militia-style contingent of reservists and a 120,000-strong territorial defense force were created to take up arms to defend against external threats. Unlike in Russia, however, those reservists are regularly called up for training, and the Belarusian arsenal of mostly Soviet-vintage equipment has evidently been kept in good usable condition. As a result, today, Lukashenka’s capabilities to suppress dissent are severely limited: He cannot call up and arm reservists or territorial militias to assist the overstretched KGB in defending the regime since those self-defense forces could easily turn against him. That is why Lukashenka today needs some sort of Russian military backup (Novaya Gazeta, August 6).
The relatively small Russian contingent to Slavic Brotherhood 2020 is led by the Airborne Forces’ (Vozdushno-Desantnye Voyska—VDV) deputy commander, Lieutenant General Andrei Kolzakov (Militarynews.ru, September 17). Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Minsk on September 16 for talks with Lukashenka, to follow up on the Sochi agreements. It was announced that Slavic Brotherhood 2020 will be prolonged at least until the end of September and maybe into October, followed up by other joint military exercises. This military activity will continue with the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Unbreakable Brotherhood (Nerushimoye Bratstvo) 2020 exercise, scheduled for October and also on Belarusian soil. It will bring together contingents from all CSTO member states: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (Militarynews.ru, September 16). Moreover, Minsk has sent a battalion of some 350 men to participate in the massive Caucasus (Kavkaz) 2020 military maneuvers in southern Russia (Militarynews.ru, September 15). Lukashenka announced at the meeting with Shoigu that he asked Putin for new weapons shipments; but whether he receives them anytime soon remains unclear. The Kremlin denied there was a pending arms agreement. Lukashenka is seen in Moscow as unreliable and does not have money for new Russian weapons anyway (Interfax, September 16).
It seems that, under the guise of effectively permanent military exercises, Moscow is mimicking in Belarus the transatlantic alliance’s heel-to-toe rotational deployments of relatively small tripwire forces in Central and Eastern Europe. Through these continual exercises, Russian forces will anchor Belarus within Moscow’s orbit and prevent any attempts by the West to intervene to support the Belarusian opposition—a possibility the Kremlin considers seriously. If the regime in Minsk begins to collapse or Lukashenka’s conscript/reservist forces waiver or turn against him, the Russian military presence may serve as a bridgehead for incoming reinforcements—echoing what occurred in 2014, during the Russian takeover of Crimea.
Russia Reasserts Control Via Nonstop Military Exercises in Belarus
On September 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin met at his Sochi residence with his beleaguered Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who is under immense international and domestic pressure following the August 9 presidential elections. Lukashenka has ruled Belarus since 1994; last...
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Belarus borders remain open despite leader's closure threat
Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania remain open despite the nation’s president declaring they would be closed and accusing the neighboring nations of instigating weeks of protests against his 26 years of authoritarian leadership
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
18 September 2020
The Associated Press
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gestures as he addresses a women's forum in Minsk, Belarus, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020. President Alexander Lukashenko's decision to close the borders with Poland and Lithuania underlines his repeated claim that the massive wave of protests is driven by the West and comes amid increasing criticism from the United States and the European Union. (TUT.by via AP)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarus' borders with Poland and Lithuania remained open Friday despite the nation's president declaring they would be closed and accusing the neighboring nations of instigating nearly six weeks of protests against his 26 years of authoritarian leadership.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said late Thursday that he was putting the army on high alert and closing the country’s borders with Lithuania and Poland. Lukashenko has blamed the United States and its allies for fomenting the unrest following his landslide reelection to a sixth term last month, an outcome that protesters in Belarus say resulted from vote-rigging.
“We are forced to withdraw troops from the streets, put the army on high alert and close the state border on the west, primarily with Lithuania and Poland,” Lukashenko said while addressing a women’s forum, adding that Belarus’ border with Ukraine also would be strengthened.
But the national Border Guard Service said all border checkpoints remained open, though it said controls and inspections have been strengthened.
A spokeswoman for the Polish Border Guard, Agnieszka Golias, said traffic at Poland's border with Belarus was as busy as usual. Lithuanian authorities also reported no changes.
Lukashenko’s main challenger in the election, former English teacher and political novice Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, dismissed Lukashenko's claims as part of his efforts to denigrate protesters and to blame foreign influences for the outpouring of anger toward him and calls for his resignation on the streets of Belarus.
“Lukashenko already has tried to scare us with enemies that don't exist. He has accused peaceful people of being engaged in violence and tried to cast the true patriots as traitors,” Tsikhanouskaya said in a statement. “But his talk yesterday about closing the borders marks a new level of distancing from reality. It was talk by a weak person about his own imaginary world.”
She urged Belarusians to ignore Lukashenko's bluster, emphasizing that “all our neighbors are our friends.”
Seeking to further cement ties with his main ally and sponsor, Moscow, Lukashenko has tried to cast the protests as a Western plot to isolate Russia. This week, Russia has sent 300 paratroopers for joint military drills with Belarusian soldiers near Brest on the border with Poland. On Friday, they practiced freeing hostages in a mock anti-terror operation.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius voiced concern over Lukashenko's statement about beefing up troops on the border.
“This is an inadequate response of an inadequate person to the situation,” he told public broadcaster LRT Radio.
The United States and the European Union have criticized the presidential election as neither free nor fair and urged Lukashenko to start talks with the opposition — a call he has rejected. Washington and Brussels have been pondering sanctions against Belarusian officials for alleged vote-rigging and the violent response to protests.
The EU ambassadors in Belarus urged authorities to release all political prisoners, warning in Friday’s statement that “from this day on, each of us will take a copy of the list of political prisoners in Belarus to every meeting with Belarusian officials.”
“We reiterate that a peaceful and sustainable resolution of the current crisis can result only from an inclusive national dialogue held in full observance of the Belarusian people’s fundamental rights and freedoms and in full respect of their demand for a democratic process,” the EU ambassadors said.
During a ferocious protest crackdown in the first few days after the Aug. 9 presidential election, nearly 7,000 people were arrested and hundreds were injured. Belarusian authorities have since changed tactics and tried to squash protests with the selective detentions of demonstrators and the jailing of opposition leaders.
Several top members of the Coordination Council the opposition has created to push for a new election have been jailed and others forced to leave the country. Maxim Znak, a leading member of the council, declared a hunger strike in prison on Friday.
In a new strategy to stem Sunday rallies that drew up to 200,000 people to the streets of Minsk to denounce the government, the Belarusian Prosecutor General's office said it has tracked down parents who took their children to opposition demonstrations.
It said that prosecutors in the capital have served notices to 140 individuals, warning them of their failure to fulfill their parental duties. The office's statement didn't spell out the potential consequences of the warnings.
The United Nations' top human rights body held an urgent debate Friday on the situation in Belarus with U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet pointing at "hundreds of reports of torture and other ill-treatment, including sexual violence and the reported torture of children.”
Belarus’ ambassador, Yury Ambrazevich, staunchly denied what he described as unfounded accusations of sexual violence against protesters or disappearances of people. He tried but failed to prevent Tsikhanouskaya, the main opposition challenger, from delivering a video statement in which she called for an international mission to document the human rights abuses in Belarus.
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Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland, and Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, contributed to this report.
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Follow AP's coverage of the political unrest in Belarus at https://apnews.com/hub/belarus
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Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania remain open despite the nation’s president declaring they would be closed and accusing the neighboring nations of instigating weeks of protests against his 26 years of authoritarian leadership
By YURAS KARMANAU Associated Press
18 September 2020
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gestures as he addresses a women's forum in Minsk, Belarus, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020. President Alexander Lukashenko's decision to close the borders with Poland and Lithuania underlines his repeated claim that the massive wave of protests is driven by the West and comes amid increasing criticism from the United States and the European Union. (TUT.by via AP)
KYIV, Ukraine -- Belarus' borders with Poland and Lithuania remained open Friday despite the nation's president declaring they would be closed and accusing the neighboring nations of instigating nearly six weeks of protests against his 26 years of authoritarian leadership.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said late Thursday that he was putting the army on high alert and closing the country’s borders with Lithuania and Poland. Lukashenko has blamed the United States and its allies for fomenting the unrest following his landslide reelection to a sixth term last month, an outcome that protesters in Belarus say resulted from vote-rigging.
“We are forced to withdraw troops from the streets, put the army on high alert and close the state border on the west, primarily with Lithuania and Poland,” Lukashenko said while addressing a women’s forum, adding that Belarus’ border with Ukraine also would be strengthened.
But the national Border Guard Service said all border checkpoints remained open, though it said controls and inspections have been strengthened.
A spokeswoman for the Polish Border Guard, Agnieszka Golias, said traffic at Poland's border with Belarus was as busy as usual. Lithuanian authorities also reported no changes.
Lukashenko’s main challenger in the election, former English teacher and political novice Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, dismissed Lukashenko's claims as part of his efforts to denigrate protesters and to blame foreign influences for the outpouring of anger toward him and calls for his resignation on the streets of Belarus.
“Lukashenko already has tried to scare us with enemies that don't exist. He has accused peaceful people of being engaged in violence and tried to cast the true patriots as traitors,” Tsikhanouskaya said in a statement. “But his talk yesterday about closing the borders marks a new level of distancing from reality. It was talk by a weak person about his own imaginary world.”
She urged Belarusians to ignore Lukashenko's bluster, emphasizing that “all our neighbors are our friends.”
Seeking to further cement ties with his main ally and sponsor, Moscow, Lukashenko has tried to cast the protests as a Western plot to isolate Russia. This week, Russia has sent 300 paratroopers for joint military drills with Belarusian soldiers near Brest on the border with Poland. On Friday, they practiced freeing hostages in a mock anti-terror operation.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius voiced concern over Lukashenko's statement about beefing up troops on the border.
“This is an inadequate response of an inadequate person to the situation,” he told public broadcaster LRT Radio.
The United States and the European Union have criticized the presidential election as neither free nor fair and urged Lukashenko to start talks with the opposition — a call he has rejected. Washington and Brussels have been pondering sanctions against Belarusian officials for alleged vote-rigging and the violent response to protests.
The EU ambassadors in Belarus urged authorities to release all political prisoners, warning in Friday’s statement that “from this day on, each of us will take a copy of the list of political prisoners in Belarus to every meeting with Belarusian officials.”
“We reiterate that a peaceful and sustainable resolution of the current crisis can result only from an inclusive national dialogue held in full observance of the Belarusian people’s fundamental rights and freedoms and in full respect of their demand for a democratic process,” the EU ambassadors said.
During a ferocious protest crackdown in the first few days after the Aug. 9 presidential election, nearly 7,000 people were arrested and hundreds were injured. Belarusian authorities have since changed tactics and tried to squash protests with the selective detentions of demonstrators and the jailing of opposition leaders.
Several top members of the Coordination Council the opposition has created to push for a new election have been jailed and others forced to leave the country. Maxim Znak, a leading member of the council, declared a hunger strike in prison on Friday.
In a new strategy to stem Sunday rallies that drew up to 200,000 people to the streets of Minsk to denounce the government, the Belarusian Prosecutor General's office said it has tracked down parents who took their children to opposition demonstrations.
It said that prosecutors in the capital have served notices to 140 individuals, warning them of their failure to fulfill their parental duties. The office's statement didn't spell out the potential consequences of the warnings.
The United Nations' top human rights body held an urgent debate Friday on the situation in Belarus with U.N. human rights chief Michelle Bachelet pointing at "hundreds of reports of torture and other ill-treatment, including sexual violence and the reported torture of children.”
Belarus’ ambassador, Yury Ambrazevich, staunchly denied what he described as unfounded accusations of sexual violence against protesters or disappearances of people. He tried but failed to prevent Tsikhanouskaya, the main opposition challenger, from delivering a video statement in which she called for an international mission to document the human rights abuses in Belarus.
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Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland, and Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, contributed to this report.
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Follow AP's coverage of the political unrest in Belarus at https://apnews.com/hub/belarus
Belarus borders remain open despite leader's closure threat
Belarus’ borders with Poland and Lithuania remain open despite the nation’s president declaring they would be closed and accusing the neighboring nations of instigating weeks of protests against his 26 years of authoritarian leadership
abcnews.go.com