GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Elon is about to drop a BOMBSHELL on the Hunter Biden laptop story | Redacted with Clayton Morris 17:31 min

Elon is about to drop a BOMBSHELL on the Hunter Biden laptop story | Redacted with Clayton Morris​

Redacted News Published November 29, 2022

Elon Musk says that he will publish internal documents from Twitter explaining the company’s free speech suppression policies. This means that we will see exactly why some speech has not been allowed on Twitter. Interestingly enough, Twitter has recently discontinued all misinformation rules around Covid but cracked down on child pornography. You would think the lefty celebs leaving Twitter would consider this a good thing but they're more interested in Covidism than protecting children clearly.

^^^^^
(full show)

This is a DEVASTATING lie and Putin just caught them in it | Redacted with Clayton Morris 2:32:52 min (starts at 31:05 min)

This is a DEVASTATING lie and Putin just caught them in it | Redacted with Clayton Morris​

Redacted News Published November 30, 2022
Ursula Von Der Leyen just told the truth about the war in Ukraine and then tried to hide it. It's a devastating admission for a war that is all but lost by NATO. Ukrainian oligarchs have fled the country with U.S. monies and are living the life in Monaco. And what is Pfizer hiding about their vaccine's effectiveness.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Ep. 2937a - Biden Just Exposed Himself, With No Cover Story The [CB] Makes Their Move 20:23 min (Starts at 1:30 min)

Ep. 2937a - Biden Just Exposed Himself, With No Cover Story The [CB] Makes Their Move​

X22 Report Published November 30, 2022
The green new deal is falling apart. The people are not going along with it. The people in Europe are hitting a point of no return. The US economy is imploding, US pending home sales are plunging and it almost down to the level of covid. Companies are laying off, Biden just went against the Union. The [CB] is now pushing the [CBDC] and they are trying to remove alternative currency at the same time.

^^^^^
Ep. 2937b - FBI & Now Twitter Involved In Manipulating The Elections, [DS] Election Rigging Exposed 52:45 min (starts at 1:38 min)

Ep. 2937b - FBI & Now Twitter Involved In Manipulating The Elections, [DS] Election Rigging Exposed​

X22 Report Published November 30, 2022

The [DS] is panicking, they have lost their weapon of narrative control. The [DS] will continue to hit EM and Trump. They don't have a choice. The election fraud is being produced. Each time more evidence is produced the case is getting stronger and stronger. Bait and traps are being used by EM and Trump and the [DS] is doing exactly what they want.

^^^^
Gen Flynn-We Are In The Midst Of 5th Generation Warfare,Time To Educate The Children In Leadership 1:00:50 min
(starts at 1:06 min)

Gen Flynn-We Are In The Midst Of 5th Generation Warfare,Time To Educate The Children In Leadership​

X22 Report Published November 30, 2022
Book: Citizens Guide To 5th Generation Warfare
The Citizen's Guide to Fifth Generation Warfare: Flynn, Michael, Cutler, Boone: 9798888625279: Amazon.com: Books

With more than 33 years of service in the United States military and current Chairman of America’s Future, General Flynn’s military career culminated as the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and as the nation’s highest serving military intelligence officer. After retiring from the Army in 2014 and as a private citizen, General Flynn went on to serve in a variety of business, educational, and non-profit roles, to include supporting veterans’ organizations around the country, something he continues to do today.

General Flynn is a National Bestselling Author, holds three master’s degrees, and is recipient of numerous military, intelligence and law enforcement awards. The conversation begins with General Flynn discussing his new book “The Night The Snow Monster Attacked!”, this book will teach children how to become leaders. The elections were rigged and we are now in a 5th generation war. This is a war of perception and disinformation. The people are fighting back and we will win.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Jordan Peterson WARNS Social Credit System COMING! Here’s How to STOP IT!!! 12:48 min

Jordan Peterson WARNS Social Credit System COMING! Here’s How to STOP IT!!!​

Dr Steve Turley Published November 30, 2022

(No summary given. Did not watch.)

^^^^
9:04 min

Rachel Maddow Suffers HUGE LOSS In Court!!!​

Dr Steve Turley Published November 30, 2022

(Devon Nunes Defamation lawsuit )
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
China Is A Slave State, No Gray Area - Names Of The Complicit Get Named - Ingraham On Tucker 3:52 min

China Is A Slave State, No Gray Area - Names Of The Complicit Get Named - Ingraham On Tucker​

Red Voice Media Published November 30, 2022

"They'd sell out their mother for a buck."

"This is the single biggest threat to freedom and our own sovereignty independence in the world right now."

^^^^
Desantis: Apple Is Using Their Authority to Protect the CCP While Limiting Speech in America 1:11 min

Desantis: Apple Is Using Their Authority to Protect the CCP While Limiting Speech in America​

Red Voice Media Published November 30, 2022
“What is Apple doing with that? They’re limiting the air drop function of the protesters. They’re serving to the Chinese communist party. On the other hand here in the United States, what are they doing? They’re trying to get Elon Musk Twitter off the app store, which would be a huge blow for free speech.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Sen. Ron Johnson: 'It's an Insane Policy' to Force Anyone to Take a Covid-19 Injection 1:15 min

Sen. Ron Johnson: 'It's an Insane Policy' to Force Anyone to Take a Covid-19 Injection​

The Vigilant Fox Published November 30, 2022

"The bottom line here is the vaccine does not prevent infection — does not prevent transmission. So why would we make anybody take it?" asked Johnson.

"The fact of the matter is there are safety signals that anybody who's looking at CDC and NIH and FDA data might have cause for concern about. Now, part of our problem here is that the FDA, the CDC, and the NIH have not been honest. They have not been transparent."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Tech and Ethics 3:04 min

Tech and Ethics​

The New American Published November 30, 2022
Edward O. Wilson said, "The problem with society is that we have paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology". One of the guardrails against us destroying ourselves is ethics. But what happens when we live in an age that venerates intelligence and not wisdom? An age where people in government are now openly talking about dispensing with moral standards?

DISCLAIMER: Views and opinions expressed on The Daniel Natal Show are solely those of the host and do not necessarily represent those of The New American.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
One-on-One with Chinese Communist Party expert, Simone Gao 6:45 min

One-on-One with Chinese Communist Party expert, Simone Gao​

One America News Network Published November 30, 2022

Some cities in China are easing COVID restrictions after people rose-up against the Communist government's zero COVID-19 policy, censorship of dissent, and lack of free speech. The biggest protests since Tiananmen square began after a fire in an apartment building in Xinjiang last week killed 10. Many blame the strict COVID measures for slowing the emergency response. Simone Gao, a CCP expert joined OAN's Alicia Summers to discuss the impact of these protests.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

DOT Denies Hours of Service Exemption for Livestock: Puts Burden on Cattle Producers​

By MICHELLE ROOK November 30, 2022

Farm groups have been working with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration agency for months to allow additional time on the road for truckers transporting livestock, insects and aquatic animals and make them exempt from some Hours-of-Service rules. The livestock industry will retain the 150-mile air radius exemption on the front and back of a shipment, but the agency has denied the HOS request which puts producers at a real disadvantage. It also couldn’t come at a worse time with a trucker shortage and pending rail strike.

The agency rejected the exemption saying it wouldn’t meet an acceptable safety level for drivers. However, farm groups say it doesn’t take into consideration the well-being of the animals being transported and will put a burden on producers. Kent Bacus, Executive Director of Government Affairs, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says, "We’ve been operating with this extended relief for the last few years and being able to have that flexibility to determine how we want to ship cattle and what the best time is not only given the weather conditions and road conditions but also you know taking all that into consideration the livelihood of the livestock we’re in charge of."

Rock Valley, Iowa, cattle producer Brad Kooima, agrees. "I am disappointed in the news. I think that there is a pretty strong group that’s going to try to get our waiver reinstated. Anybody that’s in this industry knows that this makes no sense for animal welfare."

Bacus says NCBA will continue to look at any possible legal or Congressional recourse. "We have allies and people on Capitol Hill who understand our industry, who understand the significance of this. So, we may look at those options as well." Plus, they’ll continue to petition the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to reconsider or compromise.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Removing China's Domestic Price Trade Barriers: How Would it Impact Ag?​

By JENNIFER SHIKE November 30, 2022

Although China imported more than $205 billion worth of agricultural products in 2021, including more than $37 billion from the U.S., trade barriers deterred China’s imports from reaching even higher levels.

"China’s import barriers create what are called “price wedges,” in which domestic prices for agricultural commodities including beef, corn, pork and wheat are higher than the world price," explains the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS).

Economic theory suggests that a country would import products when foreign prices are lower than domestic prices, decreasing domestic prices and narrowing the “wedge” between domestic and international prices. ERS researchers recently found that removing these price wedges would lead to increases in agricultural imports for the four commodities over the subsequent 5 to 10 years.
  • Removal of the corn and wheat price wedges was estimated to increase China’s imports by 91% and 249%, respectively.
    Both of these commodities are subject to a tariff-rate quota which could constrain additional imports.
  • Removal of the beef price wedge was estimated to increase China’s beef imports by 46%.
  • Removal of the pork price wedge was estimated to increase China’s pork imports by 402%.
    By far, this is the largest increase among the commodities considered.
Overall, the benefits of removing these trade barriers would be widespread, increasing sales for producers in the U.S. and other exporting countries and yielding lower food prices for China’s consumers, ERS notes.

This chart is drawn from the ERS report China’s Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork and Wheat, published in August 2022.

1669859619470.png
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

GOP Lawmakers Call For ‘Investigation’ Into Chinese Firm’s Potential Stake In Key Nevada Lithium Mine​

CHILE-ARGENTINA-BOLIVIA-CLIMATE-COP27-UN-MINES-ENERGY-ENVIRONMEN

(Photo by MARTIN BERNETTI/AFP via Getty Images)

Daily Caller News Foundation logo

JACK MCEVOY ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT REPORTER
November 30, 20227:44 AM ET
  • Republican lawmakers are calling for a congressional investigation into a Chinese company that may possess a substantial stake in a key mining development located in Nevada.
  • Chinese mining company Ganfeng Lithium’s executives are reportedly tied to the Chinese Communist Party, according to The Washington Free Beacon.
  • “There absolutely needs to be an investigation into whether or not China financially benefits from this type of potential activity and Congress must do everything it can to prevent this from happening,” Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Republican lawmakers are calling for a congressional investigation into a Chinese firm that could possess a significant stake in a Nevada lithium mine.

Ganfeng Lithium owns 10% of Lithium Americas, making it the largest stakeholder in the Canadian mining company, according to The Washington Free Beacon. Republican Reps. Louie Gohmert of Texas and Mike Waltz of Florida told the Daily Caller News Foundation that both Congress and the Biden administration should launch an investigation to ensure that U.S. national security is not threatened as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds ties to Ganfeng executives, the Free Beacon reported in September.

“There absolutely needs to be an investigation into whether or not China financially benefits from this type of potential activity and Congress must do everything it can to prevent this from happening,” Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas told the DCNF.

Lithium Americas is attempting to get the Treasury Department to approve its northern Nevada Thacker Pass mine and also applied for Energy Department loans that are earmarked for companies that mine critical minerals needed to manufacture electric cars.

Although Lithium Americas announced on Nov. 3 that it would separate its company into two separate entities, Ganfeng would still possess a majority stake in both companies, according to the Free Beacon. Lithium Americas said that the separation would serve to address “geopolitical” concerns that the Biden administration and lawmakers may hold.

“I expect this purchase to be subjected to Committee on Foreign Investment review by the Biden administration,” Republican Florida Rep. Mike Waltz told the DCNF. “If it is not, Congress should absolutely investigate this acquisition as we need critical minerals to remain competitive with the global economy and for our own national security.”

Ganfeng’s president Li Liangbin, is a member of a number of groups that are affiliated with the CCP, and board member Yu Jianguo is a member of the CCP, according to the Free Beacon. Furthermore, Wang Xiaoshen, Ganfeng’s executive vice president and a Lithium Americas board member, previously worked for Chinese state-owned businesses.

“The United States cannot remain dependent on our greatest adversary, the Chinese Communist Party, to have access to the basic ingredients for a functioning modern economy. Full stop,” Waltz said.

China dominates the market for minerals that are needed to produce green energy technologies and is responsible for 60% of global critical mineral production in 2019, according to a 2021 International Energy Agency report. It also refines the majority of the world’s minerals, accounting for 50% to 70% of lithium refining and nearly 90% of all other rare earth elements.

Lithium is required to produce batteries that are needed to power electric cars and store electricity produced by wind turbines and solar panels.

The U.S. has roughly 750,000 metric tons of lithium that can be mined while China possesses double the lithium reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The Democrats’ climate spending bill includes a $7,500 per vehicle tax credit for new electric vehicles (EVs); however, the tax credit will only apply if at least 40% of a vehicle’s minerals are sourced from a U.S. ally or a domestic mine in order to force green energy supply chains out of Chinese hands.

The White House announced that it would give the Energy Department $17 billion worth of loans to accelerate the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, according to a fact sheet. President Joe Biden is attempting to get more EVs on the road to meet his aggressive climate targets and wants to make EVs account for 50% of national car sales by 2030.

“As long as Joe Biden is president, our Commander-in-Chief will continue to be compromised and our foreign adversaries will use this as an opportunity to exploit the United States for financial, political and military gain,” Gohmert said. “There is no question that this potential business deal would be a major national security concern and I cannot help but wonder, what’s in it for Hunter and the ‘Big Guy?'”

An Energy Department spokesperson told the DCNF that the department does not comment on the status of loan applications. The White House, Lithium Americas and Ganfeng did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Nov 30, 2022 at 8:12am
Stock up. Prep.
2023/24 will become increasingly serious.

1669860209099.jpeg
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

CIA Director’s Former Think Tank Introduced Congressional Staffers To Experts Who Worked For Chinese Spy Fronts​

Daily Caller News Foundation logo

PHILIP LENCZYCKI INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER
November 30, 20227:55 AM ET
  • The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace introduced congressional staffers to at least 10 individuals who worked for Chinese intelligence front groups during a 2019 sponsored trip to China while current CIA Director William Burns was the nonprofit’s president, the Daily Caller News Foundation determined after reviewing author Alex Joske’s book, “Spies and Lies.”
  • Since at least the 1980s, Chinese spies have impersonated scholars aiming to influence U.S. nonprofits and policymakers, Joske found.
  • “A lot of the key scholars and other figures involved in U.S.-China relations on the Chinese side have these sorts of relationships,” Joske told the DCNF.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace introduced congressional staffers to at least 10 individuals who worked for Chinese intelligence front groups during a 2019 trip to China while current CIA Director William Burns served as the nonprofit’s president, a Daily Caller News Foundation investigation found.

During the week-long, all-expenses-paid trip to Beijing, a bipartisan group of congressional staffers from the offices of various representatives — including Connecticut Democratic Rep. Jim Himes and former North Carolina Republican Rep. Mark Meadows — met with Chinese government officials, journalists, academics and policy experts, according to the trip’s itinerary. Yet, at least 10 of the Chinese individuals worked for front groups controlled by Chinese spy agencies, such as the Ministry of State Security (MSS), the International Liaison Department (ILD) and the intel arm of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the DCNF determined.

The congressional staffers participated in a number of discussions with undisclosed Chinese intelligence front group members, such as a Nov. 6 “pre-dinner dialogue” concerning “Chinese perspectives on U.S.-China policy challenges,” which included Ding Yifan, a member of the MSS-controlled Institute of World Development Studies.

PLA’s Second Intelligence Department carries out military intelligence operations, while the ILD focuses on political intelligence and the MSS serves as China’s equivalent of the CIA, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency.
The DCNF was able to identify some of the individuals who participated in Carnegie’s 2019 trip as being tied to Chinese intelligence agency front groups by cross-referencing the itinerary with the research of several prominent Chinese intelligence specialists, including former CIA analyst Peter Mattis and Alex Joske, a former analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Joske’s new book, “Spies and Lies,” details how, since the 1980s, Chinese intelligence operatives co-opted or established various nonprofits and impersonated scholars with the goal of luring prominent Western think tanks, such as Carnegie, into partnerships in order to influence U.S. government policies towards the communist nation.

Carnegie’s cooperation with Chinese intelligence front groups dates back to at least 2004, when, under the leadership of former think tank president Jessica Mathews, the nonprofit launched a joint program with the MSS-controlled China Reform Forum, according to Joske’s research. More than a decade later, Carnegie co-hosted the 2019 congressional staffer trip, which occurred while current CIA Director William Burns served as the think tank’s president.
“A lot of the key scholars and other figures involved in U.S.-China relations on the Chinese side have these sorts of relationships,” Joske told the DCNF.

The six day trip, which was co-hosted by Carnegie and the Aspen Institute, became a flashpoint during Burns’ 2021 confirmation hearings. Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio pressed Burns about Carnegie’s ties to a Chinese government-backed group as well as the all-expenses-paid trip that brought 11 congressional staffers to Beijing in 2019.

Burns told Rubio the trip was meant “to provide congressional staff members with an opportunity to engage directly with Chinese counterparts and to express their concerns about Chinese actions and malign behavior quite directly.”

However, the DCNF previously reported congressional staffers were also introduced to the president of a CCP-affiliated front group called the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC). In 2020, the U.S. State Department designated CPAFFC as a foreign mission seeking to “malignly” influence American leaders.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace employed undisclosed members of the Chinese Communist Party and individuals with ties to the Chinese government when CIA Director William Burns served as the think tank’s president, a Daily Caller News Foundation investigation determined. (Artwork: The Daily Caller)

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace employed undisclosed members of the Chinese Communist Party and individuals with ties to the Chinese government when CIA Director William Burns served as the think tank’s president, a Daily Caller News Foundation investigation determined. (Artwork: The Daily Caller)

Additionally, the DCNF has identified at least 10 individuals listed on the trip’s itinerary who worked for nonprofits controlled by Chinese intelligence agencies. At least three of these individuals were simultaneously working for Chinese intelligence front groups while employed by Carnegie, the DCNF found. Another two Carnegie policy experts who participated in the trip formerly worked for Chinese intelligence fronts.

During the trip, congressional staffers visited Carnegie’s center at Tsinghua University, where they encountered at least three experts who’d worked for intelligence front groups, the DCNF determined.

One of these experts who participated in the visit was Li Bin, a Carnegie nuclear policy fellow, who spoke to congressional staffers about North Korea’s “nuclear threat.” Li Bin is a member of the CCP and a PLA intelligence front group, the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies (CFISS), according to the group’s website.

A second individual, Cheng Xiaohe, who Carnegie employed as an international relations expert, had previously worked for the MSS front group, the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), by Carnegie’s own admission.

The third individual, Yang Wenjing, worked as the chief of U.S. policy at CICIR. While Carnegie did not employ Yang Wejing, Carnegie had featured her as a speaker during events in 2017 and 2018 and continued to feature her at events afterwards.

Similarly, at another point during the trip, Carnegie introduced staffers to Carnegie-Tsinghua advisory council member, Wang Jisi, who is also a CCP member, for a “roundtable discussion.”

Wang has a “very close relationship with the Ministry of State Security,” Joske told the DCNF. Wang has since 2000 also served as director of the China Reform Forum, which Joske’s book identifies as an MSS-controlled front group.

Wang has also worked for at least four other intelligence fronts, including the China International Cultural Exchange Center (CICEC) and another MSS front called the China Institute of Strategy and Management (CISM), the DCNF found.

Carnegie, Burns, Wang and the CIA did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

With Republicans preparing to take control of the House, lawmakers are once again scrutinizing Burns’ time at Carnegie and the group’s deep and enduring relationships with Chinese academics, policy experts and government officials.

“The amount of CCP infiltration at Carnegie shows that Director Burns was aware and intentionally concealed it from the American people, or he was grossly incompetent,” Texas Republican Rep. Lance Gooden told the DCNF in September. “Anyone who enables our top adversary is not fit to lead a U.S. intelligence agency.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Norway: Vaccine researcher WARNING about the booster​

We are seeing U-turn after U-turn now.​

Peter Imanuelsen
13 hr ago

It was not long ago that we were told to take booster after booster, seemingly into infinity. Boost up your immune system they said.

In my last Substack article I wrote about how leading Norwegian doctors have said that they will not be taking the boosters, because they say that for young people the side effects could outwheigh the benefits.
Upgrade to paid

Now a professor and vaccine researcher at the University of Oslo has come out with a warning against taking the boosters, saying that people under 65 who do not belong to a risk group do not need to take a fourth booster.
”As long as you are not over 65 years or belong to a risk group, there is no need for a fourth dose. All data we have point clearly in one direction: If you do not have an underlying illness, then you have no benefit of taking the fourth dose...It should also be said that the younger population, who have a low risk for serious covid disease, should have a high threshold for recommending more doses” says Gunnveig Grødeland
Even the department director at the Norwegian Institute for Public Health (NIPH) is warning about young people taking the vaccine.
”For the youngest in the age group 18 to 64, the benefits of a new dose is the lowest, and therefore negative effects like menstrual disorders can mean the disadvantage is greater than the benefit” says Are Stuwitz Berg at NIPH.

Do you remember last year?​

Women started complaining about getting menstrual bleeding after taking the vaccine? Do you remember how they were called conspiracy theorists by the media?

Well it turns out that Norway has had a shocking 15 000 reports of women with menstrual disorders after taking the vaccine, and Norway has officially listed menstrual bleeding as a possible side effect of the vaccine.

Now consider that Norway is a small country with only 5.4 million people, the total number of women of menstrual age is not very high. So 15 000 is a lot for such a small country.

Now I found something very worrying indeed. In the VAERS database from the U.S, there has been an astronomical 31 020% increase in report of menstrual disorders in 2021 after the mRNA vaccines came out. Clearly something is wrong here.


Screenshot from OpenVAERS.com

While health authorities have admitted that menstrual disorders can be a side effect of the vaccine, they say it is temporary. However, it turns out many women are saying that they have had these problems for over a year now.

26 year old Camilla Røisgård says that she has been living with severe bleeding for 13 months now, making her suffer from fatigue and dizziness. It gets so bad that she cannot even get out of bed.

1669861029967.png

”I know they say the side effects are temporary, but it doesn’t feel that way” she told TV2.

Turns out that for many women, these ”temporary” side effects have been ongoing for a long time. One year ago, TV2 in Norway talked with 212 women who had experienced menstrual disorders after taking the vaccine, some having almost constant bleeding for several months in a row.

Now after one year, they got in contact with 149 out of the 212 women, and it turns out that 85 women are still suffering from menstrual disorders, over one year after taking the vaccine. Doesn’t seem very temporary to me…

What I really am struggling to understand however, is that despite this, almost half of the women have still taken the 3rd booster. Why are they doing it?

If you have been following my reporting, there has been a mysterious collapse in the birthrates all over the world this year and nobody seems to know why. Surely can’t have anything to do with menstrual disorders, that would never affect fertility, right?

We have been seeing around a 10% drop in birthrates, meanwhile we are also seeing sky high excess mortality.

I did an in depth investigation into the collapse in birthrates here, and I found some shocking evidence that unvaccinated mothers are actually very over represented in giving birth compared with vaccinated women. Read my article below!

1669860860977.png

And then there is the issue of myocarditis…

I recently had a visit with one of the leading heart doctors in Norway for a checkup on heart palpitations. The first thing he asked me was if I had been vaccinated. He then told me that both covid and the vaccines could cause heart problems. Thankfully for my case the palpitations were benign (I did not take the vaccine, and I had these on and off before covid as well).

So it looks like Norway is suddenly beginning to change their tune on the vaccinations. Meanwhile other countries are still going ahead telling everyone to boost up.

Norway has so far had a good track record compared with many other places, having relatively few lockdown restrictions and also having one of the lowest excess mortality rates.

Please share this article everywhere you can to let people know what the Norwegian health experts are saying!
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Musk: Twitter Has "Interfered In Elections"

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 09:39 AM

Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday confirmed what everyone with two functioning brain cells and intellectual honesty already knew; the social media giant has "interfered in elections."

In a discussion over a Reuters article in which the company's former head of trust and safety says Twitter is 'not safer' under Musk, user @EvaFoxU posted:

"Twitter has shown itself to be not safe for the past 10 years and has lost users’ trust. The past team of "trust and safety” is a disgrace, so it doesn’t have any right to judge what is being done now," adding "They had a chance, but they sold their souls to a corporation."

To which Musk replied, "Exactly. The obvious reality, as long-time users know, is that Twitter has failed in trust & safety for a very long time and has interfered in elections."

Musk then said that "Twitter 2.0 will be far more effective, transparent and even-handed."

1669861381162.png

1669861450449.png

Musk's comments come days after he agreed with formerly banned news personality Alex Lorusso that releasing Twitter's internal discussions about the decision to censor the Hunter Biden laptop story right before the 2020 US election is "necessary to restore public trust."

1669861513588.png

As we noted last week, the Post had its Twitter account locked in October 2020 for reporting on the now-confirmed-to-be-real "laptop from hell," which contains unprosecuted evidence of foreign influence peddling through then-Vice President Joe Biden - including a meeting between Joe and an executive of Ukrainian gas giant Burisma, in 2015.

The laptop contained caches of emails detailing business dealings with Burisma and state-owned CEFC China Energy Co, from which his firms received $4.8 million in wire transfer payments from its founder, Ye Jianming, according to a Senate report. -Daily Caller

Twitter had restricted any user from sharing links of the Post's coverage, both publicly or via direct message - while the social media giant also locked out former White House spox Kayleigh McEnany's personal account, as well as former President Trump's campaign account, for sharing the link.

In the ensuing years, the authenticity of the laptop has been confirmed by both the Washington Post and the New York Times, while CBS News authenticated the laptop on Monday.

‘Incredibly Inappropriate’
As the Epoch Times noted on Tuesday;

Musk in April spoke out in opposition to Twitter’s decision to temporarily suspend New York Post’s Twitter account.

“Suspending the Twitter account of a major news organization for publishing a truthful story was obviously incredibly inappropriate,” Musk said in April, responding to a post about the Hunter Biden laptop story.

Musk, who took over Twitter in late October, has vowed to make the platform into a politically unbiased bastion of free speech.

He said in an open letter following his acquisition of Twitter that he bought it because “it is important to the future of civilization to have a common digital town square, where a wide range of beliefs can be debated in a healthy manner, without resorting to violence.”

“There is currently great danger that social media will splinter into far right wing and far left wing echo chambers that generate more hate and divide our society,” Musk added.

Indeed:

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1594701684084703232
4:31 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

D.C. Think Tank Urges America To "Invest" In Zelensky's $1 Trillion Reconstruction Plan​

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 05:45 PM

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a video address on Tuesday estimated it will cost more than $1 trillion to rebuild his country following the Russian assault, now over nine months in. If this number sounds absolutely shocking and unrealistic... it is, given this would be five times Ukraine's entire GDP.

"The reconstruction of our country will become the most momentous economic, technological, and humanitarian project of our time. Even now, we engage dozens of our partner countries to rebuild Ukraine," Zelensky said during his nightly video address Tuesday, translated by Newsweek. "The total volume of work amounts to over a trillion dollars."

He slipped this one trillion dollar figure in while saying he hopes his country can show the world its resilience by hosting the World's Fair in 2030.

Further, the Latvia-based English language news outlet Meduza described that the Ukrainian leader floated an unusual plan for meeting his astronomical reconstruction price tag. National governments or even large companies could become permanent sponsors of specific regions, cities, or economic sectors:

According to Zelensky, Ukraine is developing a system that will allow partner countries to become "patrons" of Ukrainian regions, cities, or businesses. "We’re already seeing interest [in the program] from France, Great Britain, The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Turkey, Poland, Portugal, Czechia, Slovenia, Latvia, Estonia, Switzerland, Slovakia, Austria, Greece, Canada, the U.S., Japan, and Australia. And that’s not an exhaustive list," he said.

This actually isn't the first time that a stunning $1+ trillion figure has been proposed.



The first time Zelensky so publicly floated one trillion seems to have been in September, when he was invited to "ring" the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on the 6th of that month (via video feed of course).

He said at the time during comments which included an appeal for $400 billion in foreign investment: "The general project of Ukrainian reconstruction will be the largest economic project in Europe of our time. The largest for several generations. Its volume is already estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars."

Zelensky then emphasized, "And with the necessary modernization of the Ukrainian infrastructure, taking into account security needs, it is more than a trillion dollars and in a fairly short term - less than ten years."

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ukraine was worth 200.09 billion US dollars in 2021, according to official data from the World Bank...



Meanwhile, at least one well-known Washington-based think tank has gotten behind this, arguing that it would provide "strategic benefits" to the United States. A report in Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) issued days ago and entitled, United States Aid to Ukraine: An Investment Whose Benefits Greatly Exceed its Cost, had this to say...

"In practice, Ukraine cannot continue to fight and to recover without continuing aid from the U.S. and other powers. Moreover, if the war drags on as it well may do, the total costs of both the war and recovery states could easily rise well over $500 billion. A truly long war could put the total cost of the war and recovery to a trillion dollars or more."



It noted, "So far, there has been only limited domestic political resistance in the United States to continuing civil and military aid to Ukraine" - suggesting that US officials should push for more and more foreign aid for Kiev amid the general lack of pushback and apathy.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The Establishment Is Using An Ideological Monopoly In Big Tech To Maintain Control


WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 04:25 PM

The news surrounding Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter and the political firestorm it has caused probably hasn't escaped most people. The platform which once represented the very root of leftist cancel culture and activist organization for attack mobs has suddenly been turned upside down. Musk's position appears to be a simple one: Free speech within the bounds of the law. He has so far made good on that promise, and the leftists are losing their collective hive mind because of it.

In the process of coping with the loss of their prize, leftist activists and establishment elitists in Big Tech and government have been searching for a way to undermine or sabotage Twitter. The bottom line? If they can't have it, they will try to burn it all down so that no one can have it.

This mentality has led to a rather predictable outcome, which is for corporations and Big Tech companies to exert economic leverage against Musk. Why? On the face of it the explanation is simple: They hate free speech. Specifically, though, they hate conservative and liberty minded speech.

The average leftist on Twitter will never challenge the establishment narrative.

They are absolutely controlled and commonly regurgitate whatever claims the mainstream media makes on a daily basis without researching validity. Some conservatives do this as well, but then there is the rogue element, the large percentage of conservatives/libertarians that question the narrative and are willing to make a stand based on principles rather than pure emotions and fear. The idea that such people might have access to an open forum as vast as Twitter terrifies the powers that be.

The fascinating thing about the Twitter situation is that it reveals a much bigger underlying danger beyond the zealotry of the political left; massive collusion has been revealed between elements of government, corporations and the ideological mob.

It is hard to say how organized this collusion really is. The average woke activist is a useful idiot more so than a competent agent of destruction. But the system is clearly acting to protect itself from the thing it fears most – Fair debate and a level playing field. In response, they are willing to expose their existing monopoly to stop the shift.

This monopoly is partially economic, with only a small handful of companies in control of a large portion of the overall tech pie, but it is important to understand that it is more dangerous than other historic examples because this monopoly is an ideological monopoly.

In the past companies were primarily motivated by profit and would not sacrifice profit by alienating consumers and users with political zealotry. These day, however, all that has changed. Now companies fully discriminate according to political beliefs and are willing to lose untold billions in profits if it means doing damage to people they disagree with.

Leftists argue that this is an example of the “free market” at work, but that is a lie. It is in fact the the basis of control used within Marxist inspired societies – Marx, Lenin, Stalin and Mao all advocated for the use of denial of access to the economy and to society as a first line measure to control dissent. Their reasoning? If a person is in opposition to the foundations of the collective, then he is dangerous to the collective and therefore the collective must shun him to prevent him from causing harm. And of course, the elites get to decide what is in the best interests of the collective.

In fact, Marxists/socialists tend to treat ideological dissent as far worse that any typical crime such as theft or murder, because political dissent “hurts all of society” rather than one person or a handful of people.

This is the core rationale for the reactions on display against conservatives in our era, and denial of access is a weapon they have now deemed acceptable. They pretend as if it is nothing more than private businesses making independent decisions to not associate with certain types of people, but in truth it is a coordinated effort between ideological partners and often governments.

We saw this with the organized attack on the Parler social media platform and the use of Big Tech collusion as a means to remove them from app stores and from their own server. Now, leftists are demanding that the tactics used against Parler also be used against Twitter, with companies like Apple threatening Twitter's availability (according to Elon Musk) for download at their App Store.

Apple and Google control almost all major internet access for online companies via their app stores. Without download availability, social media companies stand to lose significant traffic and may even be put out of business over time.

In a move that was once unthinkable only a few years ago, Big Tech corporations are acting on partisan motives to subdue and destroy any social media outlet that presents a legitimate threat to the ideological monopoly. And it won't stop there – It is likely we will see the targeting of other websites and individuals in due course.

Internet server providers, search engines and even banks may act to completely cut off businesses run by conservatives. We have seen some examples of this (gun manufacturers come to mind), but as the establishment becomes threatened by a balancing of political engagement we are liable to see far more discrimination.

Monopolies are illegal and they are anti-free market, but the definition of monopoly is too limited. Economic monopolies are not the only threat to our freedom, now we must also worry about ideological monopolies within the corporate world and their power to limit free speech by extorting media sites and businesses into self censorship.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

How Inflation Changes Culture

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 04:05 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

The midterm elections are over (no Red Wave), but nothing has changed. In fact, the Biden regime will probably become even more emboldened to pursue destructive economic policies because it will interpret the lack of a Red Wave as some kind of mandate.

Every day seems to be a day of spin, with every regime apologist assuring the public that inflation is getting better. Just look at the wonderful trend line! They point to the latest inflation numbers, which were down a bit from the month prior.

The regime insists that yes, inflation will vex us for a bit more time but will settle down in a few months. Plus, the president is working to fix this! And we know the American people are on board with him since no Red Wave materialized.

But in the footnotes, you’ll find the truth: it was a tiny drop and mostly for technical reasons and the main reason for the drop has already disappeared from the price trends.

Has any political propaganda on this topic ever been this ineffective? It’s truly a joke.

Where’s the Relief Coming From?
The producer price index that came out recently paints a clearer picture. It’s grim. It reveals no softening at all. In fact, it shows that there are plenty of coming price increases. Here is the index by commodities from 2013 to the present.

1669862273288.png

Remember how last year many people finally came to the conclusion that we had to learn to live with COVID? That was a smart choice because there was no way that the China-style suppression method could work.

Well, here we are now with a preventable inflation pandemic and the realization that we have to learn to live with inflation. Soon we’ll realize that we have to live with recession at the same time.

But what does this mean?

The impact will be felt not just in terms of economics but in culture. Inflation causes a society-wide shortening of time horizons.

True Prosperity
Let’s review some basics. All societies are born desperately poor, fated to live off foraging and just getting by. Prosperity is built through the construction of capital, which is the institution that embodies forward thinking.

To make capital requires the deferral of consumption: you have to give up some today in order to make tools that enable more consumption tomorrow. This means discipline and a future orientation. And it means, above all, savings that can be invested in productive projects. Only through that path can societies grow rich.

A key component of this concerns the stability of the medium of exchange. And not just stability: a currency that rises in value over time incentivizes saving and thus investing for the long term.

The late 19th century provided a good example of this. Under the gold standard, money grew more valuable over time, thus rewarding long-term thinking and instilling that outlook in the culture at large.

Live for Today
Inflation has the opposite effect. It punishes saving. It forces a penalty on economic behavior that is future-oriented. That means also discouraging investment in long-term projects, which is the whole key to building a complex division of labor and causing wealth to emerge from the muck of the state of nature. Every bit of inflation trims back that future orientation.

Hyperinflation utterly wrecks it.

Living for the day becomes the theme. Taking what you can get now is the method and the theme. Grasping and spending. You might as well because the money is only going down in value and goods are in ever shorter supply.

Better to live hard and short and forget the future. Go into debt if possible. Let the devaluation itself pay the price.

The Seeds of Destruction
Once this attitude becomes instilled in a prosperous society, what we call civilization gradually devolves. If inflation persists, this kind of short-term thinking can wreck everything.

This is why inflation is not just about rising prices. It’s about declining prosperity, the punishing of thrift, the discouragement of financial responsibility, and a culture that gradually falls apart.

Another factor in reducing time horizons is legal instability. This was my first concern when the lockdowns began. Why would anyone start a business if governments can just shut it down on a whim? Why plan for the future when that future can be wrecked by the stroke of a pen?

Many people had assumed that this new path would be short-lived. Surely the politicians would wise up and stop the madness. Surely! Tragically, it got worse and worse. The spending and printing began and ramped up over time. It was a perfect storm of sheer madness, and now we are paying the highest possible price.

The Hinge of History
We need to speak frankly about what’s happening to the global economy. It’s not just about supply chain breakages. Those can be repaired. It’s not just about inflation affecting every country. We are living amidst a fundamental upheaval in the whole world.

The most significant single danger to global prosperity now comes in the form of a devastating and deeply tragic wreckage of the country that was set to lead the world in finance and technology: China.

The WSJ summarizes the current pain:

China in 2021 accounted for 18.1% of global gross domestic product, according to International Monetary Fund data, behind the U.S. at 23.9% but ahead of the 27 members of the European Union at 17.8%. It accounts for almost a third of global manufacturing output, according to United Nations data from 2020. China’s economy expanded modestly at the beginning of the year but data for March and April point to a sharp slowdown.

The trouble there traces to the top. When Xi Jinping locked down Wuhan, the world celebrated him for achieving what no other leader in history had achieved: the eradication of a virus in one country. Even now, he gets accolades for this.

The rest of the world followed, and elites in all countries said that this path was the future.

Going Backwards
Now the virus is on the loose all over the country, and the eradication methods are intensifying. This is crushing economic growth and now threatening genuine economic depression in the country that only a few years ago was seen as the greatest economic engine of the world.

It’s truly the case that Xi Jinping has put his personal pride above the well-being of all people in China. The scientists in the country know that he is wrong about this but no one is in a position to tell him.

We cannot really trust the data coming out of China but officially the rate of infection in that country is one of the lowest in the world. Billions more people need to get the bug and recover in order to have anything close to herd immunity. This means that lockdowns are the way for years to come so long as the present regime remains in power.

American prosperity for decades has relied on: relatively low inflation, fairly stable rules of the game, and widening trade with the world and China in particular. All three are at an end. Yes, it is heartbreaking to watch it all unfold.

I’m not defending China’s human rights abuses. Far from it. But the best way to end these abuses is through engagement, not estrangement.

We all need hope right now but it’s very difficult to find, since we are on a course that is not likely to be fixed for a very long time.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Amidst The Turmoil, Don't Handcuff Twitter With Government Control

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 03:25 PM
Authored by Randolph May via RealClearMarfkets.com,

The Babylon Bee, the satirical website that takes aim – all too effectively in the minds of some – at over-the-top wokeness, has been reinstated on Twitter. A blaring headline from a recent Bee story: "'Twitter Is Dead,' 300 Million People Post on Twitter." A satirical zinger, indeed!

And Donald Trump's Twitter account has been reinstated too – supposedly based on the results of a poll on . . . you guessed it, Twitter.

Amidst the turmoil and tumult of Elon Musk's Twitter take-over, predicting what Twitter will be next week, much less next year, is a fool's game. Count me out. After all, Mr. Musk reportedly has warned the staff: "Bankruptcy isn't out of the question.”

Assuming for present purposes that Twitter can ensure the security and stability of the platform going forward, I know what I want the platform to be.

Throughout this now fifteen part "Thinking Clearly About Speaking Freely" series, I've argued that Twitter, along with other major social media platforms, have been far too censorious in restricting content that should remain subject to public debate. And throughout, I've cited examples of overly censorious actions, such as restricting posts relating to the origin of COVID-19, the effectiveness of various treatment options, and the educational and economic costs of school and business lockdowns.

I've never contended there shouldn't be any content moderation at all, but rather that Twitter should operate much more like the digital town square that Elon Musk, as a self-proclaimed "free speech absolutist," long has said he wanted.

In other words, censorship should be considerably more limited, say, to posts demonstrably facilitating terrorism or sex trafficking, or inciting violence.

Perhaps it should not be surprising that amidst all the present chaos, including the substantial downsizing of staff, including those on the "Trust and Safety Team," that there are more strident calls for the government to exert greater control over Twitter. By way of example, I want to focus on a November 16 letter from the left-leaning Open Markets Institute ("OMI") to the heads of the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division.

Along with asking these government officials to investigate Mr. Musk's take-over, OMI proposes to subject Twitter to stringent government control.

Claiming that Twitter is an "essential communications platform," OMI says that "Twitter long ago proved it serves a unique and irreplaceable role in enabling citizens to communicate and debate key issues of the day." It contends Twitter's status as a "utility" is clear.

With Twitter denominated a public utility, it's not a far leap for OMI to beseech government officials to protect "all communications and political debates" on Twitter from interference by Twitter's executives, Board members, or employees. And according to OMI, Twitter should be required to enforce its terms of service "without prejudice or discrimination, in a completely transparent manner.”

If taken literally, OMI is asking that Twitter be regulated in the same "common carrier-like" way that the conservative Texas legislature required when it enacted a law mandating that Twitter and other social media platforms not discriminate in their content moderation practices on the basis of "viewpoint."

And that Justice Clarence Thomas suggested might be appropriate two years ago in his concurring opinion in Biden v. Knight First Amendment Institute of Columbia University. There, Justice Thomas took note of what he characterized as the dominant market positions of Twitter, Facebook, and Google, along with the fact that the latter two essentially are controlled by one or two persons. Of course, that's now true of Twitter too, and it is this concentration of control in one person upon which OMI primarily bases its case for government regulation.

As I pointed out in Part 2 of this series, in his Knight First Amendment Institute opinion, Justice Thomas declared there is a "fair argument" that Twitter, Google, and Facebook could be deemed common carriers, including by laws enacted in the states, so that they would be prohibited from excluding lawful speech from their platforms. And he speculated that the Supreme Court soon would have "no choice but to address how our legal doctrines apply to highly concentrated, privately owned information infrastructure such as digital platforms.”

If enough of his fellow justices agree, as widely suspected, to review the Fifth Circuit's NetChoice, L.L.C. v. Paxton decision upholding the Texas law mandating that Twitter and other major social media platforms operate like common carriers, then Justice Thomas's predilection for imposing common carriage obligations on the major platforms might prevail.

Given the excessive censorship in which Twitter and the other dominant social media platforms have engaged, I have considerable sympathy for the impulse motivating calls for common carrier-like regulation of the platforms. But as I said in Part 2, and elsewhere in this series, I have serious concerns about this supposed remedy.

Here's the nub of the matter as I explained in Part 3:

"As traditionally applied, the core elements of common carriage – rate regulation and nondiscrimination mandates – stifle investment and innovation. And, in any event, the traditional criteria used to assess whether an entity is a common carrier don't neatly fit the web platforms, or at least not all of them.”

So, rather than embracing the call by the Open Markets Institute, and presumably Justice Thomas too, for imposing common carrier-like control over the platforms' censorship practices, I continue to prefer offering free market solutions to address my concerns. Previously, I've advocated that Twitter and other platforms incorporate explicit presumptions favoring free speech in their terms of service. This presumptive "free speech default" would provide that content will not be removed absent clear and convincing evidence that the speech violates some specific, clearly delineated content prohibition. Such a presumption may be embedded in Mr. Musk's mind, but it also should be embedded in the terms of service so that it more readily becomes part of the corporate culture.

I've also urged Twitter and other sites to adopt additional consumer empowerment approaches that put tools in the hands of platform users to determine the parameters of the content they wish to access. If consumers are allowed to avail themselves of such "personalization" tools, they would be able to assume, to a much greater extent than at present, the content moderation function now performed by the platforms.

Rather than looking first to imposing common carrier-like or other government controls, it is preferable to look to free market approaches to address the problem of excessive censorship.

I wouldn't necessarily bet my house on it, but Elon Musk, with his entrepreneurial bent, may just be able to succeed at making Twitter much more free speech-friendly, while at the same time avoiding what he has described as the "hellscape.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

China And India Are Buying Russian Crude At A 40% Discount

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 02:45 PM
By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

The European Union on Friday once again failed to reach an agreement on a price cap for Russian oil, with the bloc's eastern-most members including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania objecting that the proposed $60-$70 per barrel for Russian crude is too generous and well above the rates Russia currently sells crude.

European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis has acknowledged as much, saying, “If you put the price cap too high, it doesn’t really bite. Oil is the biggest source of revenue for the Russian budget, so it’s very important to get this right so it really has an impact on Russia’s ability to finance this war,” he told Bloomberg TV.

Well, they are right: offering $70 per barrel for Russian Urals is incredibly generous, considering that Bloomberg has just reported that China and India are currently getting them for half that price.

According to Bloomberg's oil strategist Julian Lee, Russia's flagship Urals crude oil traded at a massive discount of $33.28, or about 40% to the international Brent crude oil, at the end of last week. In contrast, a year ago, Urals traded at a much smaller discount of $2.85 to Brent. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia. The result: Moscow is beginning to feel the heat of its war in Ukraine, and could be losing ~$4 billion a month in energy revenues as per Bloomberg's calculations.

Washington is not losing sleep over it. “If Russian oil is going to be selling at bargain prices and we're happy to have India get that bargain or Africa or China. It's fine," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously told Reuters.

Shipping nations like Greece are in favor of a higher price cap that will help keep trade flowing. However, the situation could get even murkier for Russia with EU sanctions on Russian oil set to kick in on December 5, with disruptions to the market expected if a price cap is not in place. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly drafting a presidential decree that would ban its companies and any traders from selling it to anyone that participates in a price cap.

Surging Imports From Russia

Previously, India was never a big buyer of Russian crude despite having to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.

But back in May, reports emerged of a “significant uptick” in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.

According to a Bloomberg report, India spent a good $5.1 billion on Russian oil, gas, and coal in the first three months after the invasion, more than five times the value of a year ago. However, China remains the biggest buyer of Russian energy commodities, spending $18.9 billion in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier.

And, it’s all about the money.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude has been offered at record discounts since the war began. In the early months after the war began, Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms - such as Glencore and Vitol - were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, for the Urals blend.

The experts say simple economics is the biggest reason why White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.

“Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Samir N. Kapadia, head of trade at government relations consulting firm Vogel Group, told CNBC via email.

Still, it will not be lost on many readers that India has maintained a cozy relationship with Russia over the years, with Russia supplying the Asian nation with as much as 60% of its military and defense-related equipment. Russia has also been a key ally on crucial issues such as India’s dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.

But hey, India and China are not the only ones to blame here. Reports have emerged that whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas - the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war - are currently down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG.

Europe has been working hard to wean itself off Russian energy commodities ever since the latter invaded Ukraine. The European Union has banned Russian coal and plans to block most Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 in a bid to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue to wage its war in Ukraine.

But ditching Russian gas is proving to be more onerous than Europe would have hoped for. Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas - the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war - are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the bloc’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas jumped by 41% Y/Y in the year through August.

“Russian LNG has been the dark horse of the sanctions regime,” Maria Shagina, a research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, has told WSJ. Importers of Russian LNG to Europe have argued that the shipments are not covered by current EU sanctions and that buying LNG from Russia and other suppliers has helped keep European energy prices in check.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"I Used To Be Disgusted, Now I'm Just Tired..."

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 02:05 PM
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via DailyReckoning.com,

The midterm elections, the “most important elections of our lifetimes,” are over. Whoever won, it wasn’t really going to change much. Today’s system is simply too deeply entrenched.

While the much-touted differences between America’s political parties get obsessive, hysterical attention, the sameness of Imperial corruption, waste and squalor regardless of who’s in power gets little notice.

Scrape away the differences — mostly in domestic and cultural issues — and we see the dead hand of Imperial Corruption is on the tiller.

The core of Imperial Corruption is the disconnect between the nation’s ideals of representational democracy and open markets and the sordid reality: elites serve their interests by corrupting both democracy and open markets.

Elites Against Democracy
Unfettered democracy and markets cannot be controlled by a tiny, self-serving elite. Stripped of corruption, democracy and markets are free-for-alls that are constantly evolving. This open-ended dynamism is the beating heart of both democracy and open markets.

But the dynamic adaptive churn of unfettered representative democracy and open markets are anathema to insiders, vested interests and elites. Each has gained asymmetric power by subverting democracy and markets to serve their private interests. They’ve destroyed the system’s natural dynamism.

When “competition” has been reduced to two telecoms, two healthcare insurers, two pork processors, etc., the system has been stripped of adaptability and resilience.

Democracy has been replaced by an auction of political power to the highest bidder.

Everything’s Up for Grabs
It rewards cronies and devotes all its resources not to solving the nation’s problems but to whipping up conflagrations of divisiveness and partisan hysteria that wash away the middle ground where problems can actually be addressed.

This crippling of the nation’s ability to actually solve difficult problems serves the interests of self-serving elites whose sole interest is accumulating personal wealth and power.

Their proclaimed interest in solving the nations’ real-world problems are fraudulent tissues designed to hide the putrid reality that all their so-called “solutions” distill down to sluicing huge sums of state money to cronies and campaign contributors under the guise of “solving problems.”

The only “problem” America’s elites know how to solve is the “problem” of how to get personally richer while tightening their control of the nation-state’s vast flood of (taxed/ borrowed) money.

Cronies and contributors get tax breaks hidden in 1,000-page legislation and overflowing rivers of money (here’s looking at you, Big Pharma, Big Defense, Higher Education, Sickcare, et al.).

Masters at Misdirection and Distraction
America’s elites are masters at misdirection and distraction: it’s always the other side’s fault that the nation is sliding down the chute. The elites don’t really care which side is in power, as they control them both to serve their own interests.

Any advance that increases efficiency and productivity and furthers the public good is squelched, suppressed or co-opted by vested interests. They fear, rightly, that their share of the spoils might be diminished by advances that render obsolete their particular cartel, monopoly or other embedded skim, scam, fraud, embezzlement or simply unproductive dead weight.

But something funny happens on the way to gaining control of complex emerging systems: that control destroys the system’s self-correcting mechanisms and adaptability. Rigging the system to serve one’s own interests destroys the system’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances and selective pressures.

Adapt or Die
Once a system has been crippled to serve the interest of an elite, when forced to adapt or die, it can only die as its mechanisms of adaptation were destroyed by the power-grab of elites.

An economy dominated by a handful of cartels and quasi-monopolies is an economy that is doomed to slide into the dustbin of history, as cartels and monopolies “win” by crushing competition, as competition threatens their profits and control of markets and governance, a.k.a. “democracy.”

Any system that serves the interests of the few by choking off adaptability and the dynamisms of a free-for-all churn lacks the tools needed to avoid systemic collapse. By enabling elites to organize the nation to serve their personal interests, America has been stripped of the dynamics needed to adapt.

Without these dynamics, collapse is the only possible outcome.

Don’t Forget the Deep State!
But no mention of today’s “democracy” can ignore the Deep State — the unelected and unaccountable Administrative State.

The Administrative State has existed in some form in every nation-state/empire, but the U.S. Deep State only gained its vast global powers in World War II and the Cold War. That was when the Deep State learned the lesson that the public can’t always be counted on to do “the right thing.” They may choose unwisely (for example, choosing appeasement over preparation).

And so the really important decisions needed to preserve the nation cannot be left to the public or parochial politicos in elected office. Those decisions must be in the hands of those who know what has to be done.

Democracy is simply the rubber stamp for doing what’s necessary. Beyond that, it’s a potentially fatal hindrance. That’s the mindset of the Deep State, and if you and I were in upper-echelon positions in the Administrative State, we’d agree with this mindset when things get serious.

Trump
Why do you think they were so opposed to Donald Trump? Whatever you think of Trump personally, or what I think of him personally, is completely beside the point. This isn’t about politics. The fact is, the Deep State perceived him as a grave threat to its interests and did everything it could to stop him.

This mindset is a self-reinforcing group-think feedback loop. Those who believe the public should set policy are weeded out, either by self-selection or via being sent to bureaucratic Siberia.

We’re protecting you. That’s all you need to know.

This opens the door to functionaries who came to do good but stayed to do well, i.e. those with the right credentials and connections to enter the Power Circle to “serve the public” but soon become insiders maximizing their own private gains. That’s the problem with the Administrative State: it’s ultimately unaccountable, not just to the public or elected officials but to itself.

Enjoy the Circus
But in the meantime, enjoy the political theatrics we’ve been treated to down on the sand-strewn floor of the Coliseum.

While Imperial Corruption undermines what’s left of the nation’s ability to adapt fast enough and successfully enough to survive what lies ahead, we can cheer the “winners” of the political bloodsport. We can simply ignore the winds of disorder sweeping the land.

It seems like it can just go on forever.

But everything is forever until systemic weaknesses reveal themselves, typically at the most inopportune junctures. We could well be at one of them.

It’s easy to be disgusted.

But I’ve found that being disabused of the fantasy that the system is self-correcting is the healthier perspective.

I used to be infuriated by it all. Now I’m just tired of it all.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Washington Goes To War Against Twitter And Free Speech

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 01:20 PM
Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column this week on the campaign to coerce Elon Musk to restore the censorship system at Twitter. The campaign against Twitter now involves the full allied forces of the anti-free speech movement: the government, corporations, Democratic politicians, the media, and, of course, celebrities. However, it is an alliance that has proven overwhelming in the past but this unstoppable force has met an immovable object in Musk. It is total war in the beltway but Musk has yet to fully deploy his greatest weapon: free speech.

Here is the column:

Washington this week is in full wartime footing. No, it’s not over the Russian invasion of Ukraine or North Korean missiles or even Chinese expansionism. It is about Twitter and the threat of Elon Musk to restore free speech protections to social media.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has emerged as the bellicose general rallying others to the “censor or die” pressure campaign against Twitter.

The problem is that citizens are flocking to Twitter and signing up in record numbers. They want more, not less, free speech. The over two million new sign-ups per day represent a 66% increase over the same period last year, according to figures released by Musk.

A reporter this week was so alarmed that she asked the White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about the concern that millions are still signing up at Twitter and demanded to know who is “keeping an eye on this” for possible federal action.

Unable to convince users to embrace censorship, Clinton and others are pressuring corporations and foreign governments to deter Musk from restoring free speech. Since users are embracing the new Twitter, the campaign has focused on preventing them from signing up by removing the app from the Apple and Google stores. In the meantime, Apple is joining the boycott by withholding advertising revenue to coerce Musk to reverse his free-speech pledge.

Musk, however, is sitting on the ultimate weapon to bring this war to an end: free speech itself. However, it will require more than rhetorical recriminations like Musk asking why Apple executives “hate free speech in America?”

Apple has mostly stopped advertising on Twitter. Do they hate free speech in America?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 28, 2022
The fact is that these media and political figures are becoming more and more alarmed as Musk threatens to release files on the past censorship of stories like the Hunter Biden laptop.

Musk has reason to wonder why Apple CEO Tim Cook would join this anti-free speech campaign. The reason is as obvious as it is craven. These boycotts are not about corporations or shareholders. If anything, they are more likely to diminish profits. It is about the executives themselves. Many are allies of figures like Clinton. Others are yielding to these demands to avoid being attacked or tagged by the left.

Cook is betting that, while the public wants more free speech, enough will also want Apple watches. Moreover, Apple has acquired the market power of a true monopoly. It does not have a serious competitor and, as shown with such attacks on sites like Parler, it can literally strangle the life out of competing or disfavored products.

The real question is why the political, business, and media establishment is ramping up this campaign. The answer is power. With President Biden and Democratic senators supporting investigations, the message could not be clearer: proceed at your own peril. That message was brought home by Politico’s Sam Stein when he warned Musk that it is “[a]lways risky to attack members of congress. Especially risky with Dems assured of Senate power.”

For years, Democratic politicians and their allies have exercised an enormous degree of control over political discourse through allies in the media and social media.

The problem is that censorship only works if it is complete. If there are alternative sources for information, free speech is like water . . . it finds a way out. That is why Democratic members pressured cable carriers to drop Fox News, the most popular cable news network on television. (For the record, I appear as a Fox News legal analyst). Having an echo chamber on every other news channel means little if alternative views or stories are just a click away.

The same is true for print media. With the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, and a few other newspapers, the effort to kill stories like the Hunter Biden laptop could not be completely successful. The truth found a way out and now the same outlets that peddled the false “Russian disinformation” claim are admitting that the laptop is authentic.

The threat is an even greater on social media, the area of greatest success for those seeking to control political discourse. If Musk carries through on his pledge, the public will have a free speech alternative and they are already speaking loudly by signing up with the company in record numbers. Despite a creepy Facebook advertising campaign to convince the public to embrace censorship, it has not worked.

The public is not buying. They are buying Free Twitter.

So, the only way to regain control is to prevent people from getting the app or threaten to force Twitter into insolvency. The problem is Musk, an eccentric billionaire who is not easy to intimidate.

Musk now stands against a massive alliance of governments, corporations, celebrities, and politicians. He has only the public and free speech on his side.

He needs to use both.

Musk cannot remain on defense and just take political and economic hits. The campaign is growing because the risk is growing for these various interests.

The way to end this is simple: release everything related to the company’s massive censorship operation. This is an effort to force Musk not only to resume censorship but to protect the censors. So, open the files. Allow the public to see not just communications on censorship (including subjects beyond Hunter Biden) but how Twitter may have used verification, throttling, algorithms, or other methods to control speech. The company does not have to release codes or potentially damaging information to reveal the back channel communications, deliberations, and targeting choices.

By embracing total transparency, Musk can force Apple and other companies to face the ugly realities of censorship. The anti-free speech alliance has declared total war on Twitter. It is time for Twitter to get into this fight and realize that free speech is not just its guiding principle but its greatest weapon.

When Musk threatened to restore free speech protections, Hillary Clinton and others went public to “Cry ‘Havoc!’ and let slip the dogs of war.”

So be it.

The Musk purchase has forced people to pick sides in this fight for free speech. However, Musk can leave the dogs at home and just unleash the truth.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

NYC To Start Involuntarily Hospitalizing Mentally Ill Homeless People

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 03:05 PM

Following a steady stream of vicious attacks perpetrated by New York City's homeless, Mayor Eric Adams on Tuesday announced a new program that will involuntarily hospitalize people deemed a danger to themselves -- regardless of whether they've demonstrated a risk to others.

A statement from the mayor's office said the policy targets an "ongoing crisis of individuals experiencing severe mental illnesses left untreated and unsheltered in New York City’s streets and subways." At least 26 people have been shoved from NYC subway platforms this year alone -- though not all the attacks were perpetrated by homeless people.

Homeless man Simon Martial was arrested for shoving a woman to her death beneath a NY subway train in January (Jeff Bachner for New York Daily News)

“The very nature of their illnesses keeps them from realizing they need intervention and support," said Adams at a City Hall press conference.

"Without that intervention, they remain lost and isolated from society, tormented by delusions and disordered thinking. They cycle in and out of hospitals and jails.”

Of course, there's more to New York's crime crisis than "mental health" issues. An overly-forgiving judicial system that returns violent criminals to the streets after a scolding is also to blame -- but rounding up some of the bona fide lunatics for treatment could be a good thing for all concerned.

According to the mayor's office statement, Adams' directive "seeks to dispel a persistent myth that the legal standard for involuntary intervention requires an 'overt act' demonstrating that the person is violent, suicidal, or engaging in outrageously dangerous behavior likely to result in imminent harm."

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1529796625589276672
.54 min

“The common misunderstanding persists that we cannot provide involuntary assistance unless the person is violent,” said Adams. The new program empowers both cops and medical workers to assess people in public spaces and authorize involuntary hospitalizations.

Hospital capacities have been cited as a limiting factor, but, pointing to a commitment by Governor Kathy Hochul to add 50 new psychiatric beds, Adams said, "We are going to find a bed for everyone." Maybe, but, in a city of 8.5 million people, 50 beds doesn't exactly sound like a game-changer.

The new program is certain to invite legal challenges. Indeed, even the mayor's policy directive to city agencies acknowledges that “case law does not provide extensive guidance regarding removals for mental health evaluations based on short interactions in the field.”

It points, however, to a few key indicators that police and other first responders might use to involuntarily take homeless people into custody and into care: "serious untreated physical injury, unawareness or delusional misapprehension of surroundings, or unawareness or delusional misapprehension of physical condition or health."

The New York Civil Liberties Union's Donna Lieberman was among the first to criticize the plan: “The Mayor is playing fast and loose with the legal rights of New Yorkers...The federal and state constitutions impose strict limits on the government’s ability to detain people experiencing mental illness — limits that the Mayor’s proposed expansion is likely to violate."

In his Tuesday remarks, Adams assured reporters that people wouldn't be committed merely "because someone's sitting on the train talking to themselves." Rather, an "accumulation of factors" would be used by a "trained professional determine that this person is a danger to themselves because they can't take care of their basic needs."

Next, Mayor Adams needs a plan to address scenarios where serial killers transfer their souls into dolls so they can attack unsuspecting people on the subway:

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1542909353560244225
.24 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Biden Considers Calling On Congress To Boost Heating Oil Supplies As Winter Nears

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 12:29 PM
White House officials told CNBC's Kayla Tausche about a new plan to call on members of Congress to increase heating oil supplies this winter.

"As we just reported, the White House is considering calling on Congress to double a cap on heating oil storage to build up reserves over the winter, sources tell me," Tausche tweeted Wednesday morning.​

She continued:

"US officials also weighing future SPR drawdowns in the new year if prices spike post-embargo/price cap."​

1669863772175.png

The proposal comes as a significant supply crunch of heating oil has hit the Northeast and driven prices to levels unbearable for many households. Last week, Reuters reported the White House was mulling over a plan to increase inventories in the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.

Two sources told Reuters the plan could "involve directing revenue from future crude oil sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to purchase heating oil for the northeast reserves."

There was no further explanation by Tausche on what exactly "double a cap on heating oil storage" means.

Readers have been well informed about the diesel crunch hitting US markets and the world.

"Within months, almost every region on the planet will face a danger of a diesel shortage just as supply crunches in nearly all the world's markets have worsened inflation and hurt growth," Bloomberg wrote last week.​

And now it appears anti-fossil fuel Biden administration is scrambling for heating oil and diesel as supplies are expected to tighten as the cold season finally arrives.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Wall Street Reacts To Powell's Dovish Speech As Markets Explode Higher

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 12:17 PM

Stocks are soaring because once again CNBC's in-house clown Jim Cramer was dead wrong when he predicted that Powell has "every reason to be hawkish" after today's stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP - because apparently the Fed looks at 6-month-old lagging indicators when making policy...

View: https://youtu.be/rafwPP2E4o0
3:08 min

... and instead the opposite happened - as usual - with Powell signaling that the Fed would slow the pace of interest-rate increases, starting as soon as at its Dec. 13-14 meeting (read: 75bps hike are dead). While Powell did have his hawkish moments, like when he repeated that it’s likely that interest rates will need to go “somewhat higher” than what policymakers had forecast in September, he was more dovish than hawkish and omitted language from Nov 2 when he said that "we have a ways to go with interest rates before we get to the level that is sufficiently restrictive."

And while we'll get an update to those forecasts at the December meeting, which will likely show an uptick in that terminal rate projection, it will be below 5%, as Powell's comments clearly hammered the terminal rate back under 5%.

1669864010903.png

Powell also said Fed officials will be looking for “significant positive” real rates across the yield curve, among other asset classes, to assess how restrictive monetary policy is.

While the Fed chair discussed monetary policy, he talked extensively about the labor market, saying there are some early signs of a slowdown and that a “softish” landing is still possible. He said officials are concerned that workers may soon start demanding higher wages, which could have a more troubling impact on inflation.

And despite Powell’s saying that history has taught him "loosening policy prematurely would be a mistake" and that the Fed is going to stay the course until its job is done, stocks exploded when he echoed Brainard saying that "If you are waiting for inflation to go down, it's very difficult not to overtighten."

In response to Powell's dovishness, the S&P 500 soared more than 2.1% as of 3:00 p.m. in New York, while the Dow Industrial Average added 1.3%; Tech stocks were the standout, with the Nasdaq 100 surging more than 3%. The VIX index of volatility was set to drop below 20.

Below is a snapshot of several Wall Street reactions to Powell's comments.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research:

“Powell is giving the Fed an off-ramp to 75 basis point moves, but I don’t think you can rule out anything else. There is a reasonably strong chance the Fed extends 50 basis point hikes or 25 basis point hikes.”​

Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong:

“Powell said the labor shortfall -- which he estimates at 3.5 million -- mostly reflects early retirement, and there’s few signs these workers will return. He’s implying the unemployment rate will likely have to rise to cool wage growth, since an increase in labor supply is not forthcoming.”​

“Powell has sounded more hawkish than the typical FOMC participant. Notably, he appears less confident than some in the November FOMC minutes that wage growth has cooled. He hinted labor supply is unlikely grow anytime soon, and the Fed will have to bring down demand or raise the unemployment rate to slow wage growth. This speech confirms our view that Powell is on the hawkish end of the FOMC spectrum -- possibly more hawkish than the median participant.”​

Bloomberg rates strategist Ira Jersey:

Jersey notes that Powell discussed when to stop the balance sheet runoff, and mentioned that at some point they will stop shrinking the balance sheet while allowing reserves to fall as other liabilities naturally climb adding:“The thing that eventually will need to happen is organic balance sheet growth. Everyone has seemed to forget the Fed used to purchase modest amounts of Treasuries every month -- but these weren’t ‘large security asset purchases,’ they were just normal. Communicating this shift may be confusing to some market participants when the time comes. The Fed may need to consider starting to communicate this once they’re done hiking."​
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Sees Terminal Rate "Somewhat Higher", Needs "Substantially More Evidence" On Inflation​

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 10:20 AM

Watch Powell speak live at The Brookings Institute here: (due to start at 1330ET):

“It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining. By any standard, inflation remains much too high.”

View: https://youtu.be/yYUIt6FtIB4
59:25 min

Highlights from Powell's prepared remarks:

Dovish:​

  • “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting,” Powell said in the text of his speech.
  • On the Nov 2nd meeting Chair Powell s messaging stated "Our message is we have a ways to go with interest rates before we get to the level that is sufficiently restrictive", but now he has altered this slightly, noting they "have made substantial progress towards sufficiently restrictive policy, but they have more ground to cover."

Hawkish:​

  • *POWELL SAYS FED WILL NEED RESTRICTIVE POLICY FOR `SOME TIME’
  • *POWELL: RATE PEAK LIKELY `SOMEWHAT HIGHER’ THAN SEPT. FORECASTS
  • “Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level.”
  • *POWELL: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE RATES WILL PEAK
  • *POWELL: WILL REQUIRE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SLOWER DEMAND GROWTH
  • “It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining. By any standard, inflation remains much too high.”
  • *POWELL: HISTORY CAUTIONS AGAINST PREMATURELY LOOSENING POLICY

Full Remarks below:

1669864762766.png
Download this PDF

* * *
When we previewed Jay Powell's speech yesterday, we explained both why the market has been so nervous heading into (PTSD from his Jackson Hole market mauling) as well as why the blackout period that follows Powell's speech and lasts through the middle of December will be far more important for the market over the next two weeks.

Looking at today's jitteryness, the market is clearly still on edge, so below we share two Powell previews as of this morning, one from Goldman bankers, the other from JPMorgan.

We start with JPMorgan trader Andrew Tyler who has a neutral view of what to expect from the Fed chair today:

While Equities saw a lift on Weds following Fed Minutes, this week have multiple Fed speakers, none more important that Powell’s speech Weds at 1.30pm. Should the market be bracing for a repeat of Jackson Hole?

When Powell gave his Jackson Hole speech Fed Funds were 2.25% - 2.50% and now they are 3.75% - 4.00%; but financial conditions have loosened considerably following the tightening that we experienced in Sept and Oct, though the financial conditions index is tighter (higher) now than in August.

While mortgage rates have come off their highs, the 6.78% rate compares to 5.89% during Jackson Hole.

Given that background, it is unclear what more Powell could say that we have not heard from recent Fed speakers:
  • (i) terminal rate 4.75% - 5.25% seems to be an acceptable place to pause;
  • (ii) once at that ~5% level, data will determine the next moves. Currently, the market is pricing in a 5% terminal rate, and it feels unlikely that the bond market would have a material repricing ahead of Friday’s NFP, the Dec 12 CPI print, and Dec 13 Fed announcement. For reference, the Monday of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the terminal rate expectation was 3.74% and the Monday following, the terminal rate moved to 3.84%; and the 10Y yield moved from 3.01% to 3.10% over the same period. The SPX fell 3.4% the day of the speech, NDX was -4.1%, RTY was -3.3%. The market feels less offsides now with a higher-for-longer view becoming consensus, so moves of that magnitude do not appear to be very likely.
Our tactical view is that Equity market moves are likely lower from here given the number of clients who want to sell stock around the 4,000 level in the SPX; many clients feel the 3700 – 3900 range is appropriate absent a material change in the data (e.g., NFP under 100k or CPI falls another 50bps, or more).

While a Fed pivot is currently off the table, investors looking for a pause are unlikely to find that support from Powell this week.

So while JPM notes that its clients are generally bearish, there is nothing in what Powell will say that could precipitate a selloff. Not surprisingly, Goldman agrees, and as Goldman's Michael Nocerino notes the market has "somewhat de-risked heading into the event after Fed Speakers this week dropped the hawkish tone on the market"
  1. James Bullard said markets are underestimating the chances that the FOMC will need to be more aggressive next year, adding tightening may go into 2024;
  2. John Williams said "there's still more work to do" to get inflation down;
  3. Loretta Mester told the FT that the central bank isn't near a pause.
Here is some additional color from Goldman trader Mike Cahill, who says that Powell's speech is important for two reasons. :
  • First, the focus on the labor market is critical for assessing the how Powell views the Committee’s task ahead. Does he think it is likely the Fed can cool the labor market without a significant rise in the unemployment rate? And why did the September projections show such a sharp fall in inflation with only a modest rise in unemployment?
  • Second, this is a chance for Powell to comment on the substantial easing in financial conditions since the CPI print. Lower inflation is a better fundamental reason for the market to price less tightening, but our FCI has unwound half the tightening since Powell’s JH speech and is now essentially flat since June. Is he ok with this? Vast majority of FCI tightening has been pre June versus 80% of rate hikes. But we think FCI is how policy translates to the economy (the change and not the level). The easing in FCI now means that the FCI drag to growth peaks this quarter and is now roughly flat as of middle of the year – see 2nd chart below. Overall we think that FC will need to act as a restraint to the economy throughout 2023 to achieve a soft landing.
Finally, here is an extended preview excepted from Jan Hatzius at Goldman's research desk

At 1:30pm ET today, Chair Powell will deliver prepared remarks on “then economic outlook, inflation, and the labor market.” Since the October CPI print, our financial conditions index (FCI) has eased substantially, which has reduced our estimate of the drag from financial conditions on next year’s growth by 0.4-0.5pp.



The key question for markets is therefore to what degree he will try to push back against the recent FCI easing by striking a hawkish tone.
Powell is likely to hint that the FOMC will slow the pace of rate hikes at then December meeting but push back against the recent easing in financial conditions with two hawkish counterpoints.
  • First, Powell is likely to suggest that the FOMC will need to raise the funds rate to a higher peak than it projected at the September meeting, echoing his remarks at the November press conference and following similar comments from several other FOMC members over the last few weeks.

  • Second, he is likely to reiterate that inflation remains too high and the labor market remains extremely tight. At the November press conference, he acknowledged that job growth had slowed and that job openings had started to decline, but stressed that the labor market remained “out of balance” and noted that the participation rate had been “little changed since the beginning of the year.” That said, the fact that financial conditions are meaningfully tighter today than when he pushed back against easing financial conditions in his Jackson Hole speech should reduce the impetus for an overly hawkish message in today’s speech
While Powell will likely try to avoid a further counterproductive easing in financial conditions by signaling that the FOMC will keep hiking well into 2023, recent data have shown encouraging signs that labor-market rebalancing is underway, and the reasons to expect lower future inflation have continued to strengthen. Our jobs-workers gap has closed 45% of the distance between its March peak and the level we think is necessary to restore balance to the labor market, recent indicators of wage growth have softened on net, and alternative web-based measures of rent growth for new tenants have decelerated substantially.




The recent news on inflation has also been encouraging. Core CPI inflation slowed in October and we expect core PCE inflation to decelerate to 0.25% (m/m) in Thursday’s release (vs. 0.45% in September). In addition, the reasons to expect lower future inflation have strengthened further.

First, leading indicators of core goods prices — especially the supplier deliveries and prices paid components of the ISM as well as used car auction prices—have declined sharply. Second, asking rents on new leases slowed further in October, and data from Apartment List indicate that asking rents declined 0.2% in November. While Powell endorsed the official CPI/PCE rental components as the best measures of housing inflation for monetary policy purposes, he did note that the committee is “considering that we also know that at some point you’ll see rents coming down” because of the signal from the alternative measures.

We continue to expect the FOMC to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50bp inn December and to 25bp in February, March, and May, raising the funds rate to a peak of 5-5.25%.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Biden Admin Approves $1 Billion Arms Sale To Qatar During World Cup​

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 07:45 AM
Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

The Biden administration approved a possible military sale to Qatar on Tuesday worth an estimated $1 billion.

The announcement of the approval by the State Department was posted during the World Cup 2022 match between the United States and Iran, held in Doha.

The notice of the potential sale is required by law. In it, the State Department said the government of Qatar requested to buy 10 anti-drone systems—referred to as “Fixed Site-Low, Slow, Small Unmanned Aircraft System Integrated Defeat System (FS-LIDS) System of Systems.”

The Qatari government also asked for 200 “Coyote Block 2 interceptors,” which are used to defeat drones, as well as a slew of related equipment and technical and logistics support services.

Qatar, along with other Gulf Arab states, faces threats from Iranian-backed proxies in the region.

“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political stability and economic progress in the Middle East,” said the State Department.

It added that the proposed sale will also “improve Qatar’s capability to meet current and future threats by providing electronic and kinetic defeat capabilities against Unmanned Aircraft Systems.”

“Qatar will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and/or services into its armed forces. The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.”
Five U.S. government and 15 U.S. contractor representatives will be sent to Qatar for five years “to support fielding, training, and sustainment activities,” the department stated.

The main contractors will be Raytheon, SRC, and Northrop Grumman.
The United States and Qatar in 2017 previously signed a $12 billion arms deal for Qatar to purchase up to 36 F-15 fighter jets and other U.S. weapons. At the time, the Defense Department said the sale “will give Qatar a state-of-the-art capability and increase security cooperation and interoperability between the United States and Qatar.”

Former President Barack Obama’s administration in November 2016 approved the potential sale, which was estimated at the time at $21 billion. Leading up to the $12 billion deal, then-President Donald Trump denounced Qatar as a “high-level” sponsor of terrorism and called on the country’s government to “take a hard line” on funding extremism.

While Qatar denies supporting extremism, its neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, have accused it of funding terrorist groups, i
ncluding al-Qaida’s branch in Syria, and of supporting Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Because of Qatar’s alleged support for terrorists, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt in 2017 had cut off diplomatic ties with the country.

President Joe Biden in March this year designated Qatar as a major non-NATO ally of the United States—a special status granted to close, non-NATO allies that have strategic working relationships with the U.S. military. It allows Qatar to be provided with certain defense and security benefits with the United States.

Qatar is home to the Al Udeid Air Base, one of the largest U.S. military bases in the Middle East that hosts the U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters and the Pentagon’s air operations center for the region. The base is regarded as a key player in the fight against the terrorist ISIS group.

In August 2021, the air base played a major role and hosted thousands of refugees which aided U.S. efforts to evacuate people from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, after U.S. troops withdrew from the country.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

French Toast?

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 09:05 AM
by Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

French president Macron and his wife have arrived in Washington for a two-day state visit to the White House. After a joint press conference with President Biden, dinner will be served on Thursday. We may not be in for the same intense moments that Macron had in his encounters with Biden’s predecessor. Take that famous handshake moment with Trump in May 2017, just after Macron’s election, with which Macron intended to show that he was not somebody to mess with. But the to-and-fros were mutual and over time the relationship between the two remained volatile. During Macron’s state visit in 2018, Trump said: “We have a very special relationship, in fact I’ll get that little piece of dandruff off,” Trump said. “We have to make him perfect — he is perfect.” In reality, they already were miles apart. At a G7 meeting in June 2018, Macron threatened to exclude Trump from participating in a joint declaration with other leaders. The tariff wars, including steel and aluminium tariffs on Europe were also a drag on the relationship. In December 2019, Trump called Macron “very, very nasty” after the French leader criticized the US for withdrawing troops from Syria.

This week’s state visit is seen as a possibility to reset those relations and “orient squarely towards the future”, as White House spokesman John Kirby put it on Monday. Yet, from a geo-political (or should we say, geo-powerful) perspective, the French president is starting from an underdog position. Aside from the painful decision by Australia in September 2021 to engage in a trilateral security pact with the UK and US for the Indo-Pacific region that would help Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines from the US rather than French diesel-propelled subs as per the original plan, the biggest sting at the moment is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that was signed into law by President Biden on August 16 and aims to address climate change.

France and many of its European partners, however, argue that parts of that Act violate WTO rules. In particular subsidies for electric vehicle purchases are seen as unfair competition as they discriminate against foreign (car) producers. Under the IRA, electric car buyers are eligible for a tax credit of up to $7,500 as long as the vehicle has a battery that is built in North America, with minerals mined or recycled on the continent.

One option for Europe is to engage in a ‘tit-for-tat’ strategy, by launching similar subsidies and regulations for European manufacturers. In a recent interview with French daily Les Echos, Macron said: “I strongly defend a European preference in this area and strong support for the automotive industry. We must stand by this and it must happen as soon as possible […]

We must wake up, neither the Americans nor the Chinese will give us such gifts! Europe must prepare a strong response and move very quickly. […]

I have been pushing for more European sovereignty for five years. The software of many Europeans is changing,”

Some commentators suggest that by asking President Biden for ‘permission’ to engage in a similar type of subsidies scheme, Europe could re-invigorate its goals of achieving form of ‘(open) strategic autonomy’. Yet, the fact that Macron’s meeting with Biden is being perceived by some as asking for permission, that very much underscores Europe’s current lack of strategic autonomy and the power to pursue it on its own.

Moreover, there are numerous risks attached to such a tit-for-tat strategy. By openly going against WTO rules themselves, the EU would undermine the “open” part of its strategic autonomy strategy. As recently as February 2019 it signed a significant Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan, on which the EU themselves note that it “removes tariffs and other trade barriers and creates a platform to cooperate in order to prevent obstacles to trade; and helps us shape global trade rules in line with our high standards and shared values, and; sends a powerful signal that two of the world’s biggest economies reject protectionism.” Clearly, agreeing with the US to erect trade barriers goes against the grain of such views.

Another question is whether the US would play ball. In fact, why would they? As Europe is puffing under the weight of potential energy shortages and high energy costs, its (energy-intensive) industry already has a significant competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis US producers. Plus, Europe will need significant additional US LNG supplies in the coming years. The US has also provided the majority of military equipment and funding for the Ukraine to fend of Russia; the EU has been playing second fiddle. Even though Biden may not be as inclined as Trump to make French toast of Macron if he doesn’t like his proposals, he does not have many reasons to agree to them
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

SBF Addresses Rumors Whether He Laundered Ukraine Donations: "I Wish I Could Have Pulled That Off"​

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 09:20 AM
By Derek Andersen of CoinTelegraph

The disgraced former head of the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange tells his side of the story in candid but occasionally inarticulate interviews.


Former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) selected cryptocurrency vlogger Tiffany Fong for a series of lengthy and candid telephone interviews. In the two interviews that had been released on YouTube at press time, SBF speaks about many of the major questions connected with the collapse of FTX.

The first interview was conducted Nov. 6 and released Nov. 29 on YouTube. “I’ve started to trust my gut on things like this,” SBF said, explaining why he selected the relatively unknown figure to speak to. Fong has less than 10,000 subscribers to her channel. “Here’s someone who will, like, approach this from at least a somewhat neutral and interested vantage point,” he said of her. He continued:

“We as a society, in my opinion, my humble opinion, have spent quite enough time this week trying to figure out whether anyone living in [the FTX residential facility in] Albany [Bahamas] was polyamorous [...] and the answer is too boring for people to believe.”

The recording began with SBF saying, “You don’t get into the situation we got in if you, like, make all the right decisions.” Taking her cue from that, Fong started her interview by asking about the “backdoor” that allowed SBF “to execute commands that could alter the [FTX] company’s financial records without alerting others.”

SBF expressed surprise at the very idea. “And this is something I would be doing?” he asked. “That I can tell you is definitely not true. I don’t even know how to code. […] I literally never even opened the code for any of FTX.”

This set the tone for the rest of the conversation, in which Fong politely asked hardball questions and SBF answered with seeming openness.

SBF went on to comment on FTX’s FTT coin. “I think it had real value. That being said, there are a few problems. […] This was f*****g embarrassing given my background. […] I think it was basically more legit than a lot of tokens in some ways. Its was more economically underpinned than the average token was,” he said.

“Illiquidity didn’t cause the crash,” SBF continued. Rather, it was “the massive correlation of things during market moves, especially when they are triggered by fear over the position itself.”

SBF agreed with Fong that “the recovery looks pretty slim” for international customers, while “U.S. is a hundred percent. If its Amazon account had not been turned off, “they could already be withdrawing.”

Speaking about his political activities, SBF said, “I donated about the same to both parties. […] All of my Republican donations were dark.” He addressed rumors about money laundering of Ukrainian donations:

“The Ukraine one? I wish I could have pulled that off. I wish. I didn’t fully understand the goal of it. I was helping Ukraine launder funds for the Democratic Party? I don’t know why Ukraine is laundering funds for the Democratic Party. I don’t know how they would or why they would.”

View: https://youtu.be/6DezodR9hNI
22:58 min


In the second, undated, phone interview, SBF addressed the use of FTX customer funds by Alameda Research. Struggling for words, SBF said that he should have thought more about “what a hyper-correlated cross-scenario looks like. It’s the oldest game in the book in finance. […] There was no one person in charge of monitoring risk positions at FTX.” Fong pressed for specifics from the situation, with little success.

SBF took a moderate position on the role of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) in the FTX downfall. “Things would certainly be a lot more stable and there would be a lot more ability to generate liquidity […] and I don’t know for sure.”

Asked about the impact of the collapse of FTX and surrounding scandal on him, SBF said, “I wake up each day and think about what happened, and I have hours per day to ruminate on it. […] It’s different than what it seems to other people.”

1669865918085.png
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Housing Demand "Vaporized" After Rates Hit 7%...And A New Wave Of Inventory Is Next

WEDNESDAY, NOV 30, 2022 - 08:25 AM
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Since Fringe Finance has started, I’ve scoured the Earth far and wide to try and bring a perspective on real estate to the blog that is going to be both no bullshit and an unfiltered on-the-ground opinion that I know and trust (and could add value to my readers).

And to be honest, I didn’t have to scour much, as a good friend of mine is a brilliant up and comer in the world of real estate in Philadelphia. I’ve worked with her several times and have known her for years - she’s insightful, pragmatic, conscientious and has a serious pulse on the industry. I know for a fact that she eats, sleeps and breathes the industry.

As such, my kind friend, award-winning realtor Kira Mason, has agreed to drop in once in a while to offer up her take on the pulse of the industry for benefit of my readers. Kira runs the Substack Gritty City Real Estate, which you can read & follow free here and she is @kmasonrealtor on Twitter.

Post-Holiday Inventory Increase Fixed to Add Insult to Injury for the Housing Market
I’m beginning to think that the timing of the interest rate hike this fall has prevented us from experiencing the full effects of deteriorating buyer demand.

Every year, housing inventory gears down for real estate’s dormant period through the holiday season. After the new year begins, inventory then begins its slow hike towards peak in the spring and summer. It was approaching the time when inventory typically begins its final annual descent that rates hit 7% and demand vaporized.

With low inventory the belt keeping the emaciated real estate market’s pants up, I’m nervous about what could happen once more homes hit the market in Q1 and Q2 of 2023.

The inventory decline this year came in two distinct phases. Between January and July, mortgage interest rates rose from 3.11% to 5.81%: a 270 basis point increase representing a roughly 32% increase in one’s monthly mortgage payment.

Market behavior started shifting significantly once rates passed 5.5% in June. By July, inventory began its seasonal downturn…four months early. When rates finally reached and surpassed 7% in October (by which time monthly payments were up a nauseating 47%), inventory began to decline more steeply. Though steeper, inventory declined at more more moderate pace than it usually does at this time of year. This was an effect of reduced demand; despite fewer new listings being added to the market, the dearth of sales caused a relative buildup of older listings.

1669866294060.png

The perennial reason for the seasonal decline is that few people are interested in house hunting, going through stressful real estate transactions, and moving during the holiday season.

Sellers know that this will affect demand, not to mention the fact that they’ll face the same inconveniences on the buy side, so most choose to hold off on listing their homes until after New Year’s Eve. This holiday season, we can add an additional “inconvenience” to the list: mortgage interest rates at their highest level in 20 years, and affordability at an all time low. With 92% of homeowners enjoying mortgage interest rates under 5%, and 62% with rates under 3.75%, nobody is putting their home on the market unless they absolutely must.

While resale inventory isn’t likely to fully rebound until rates and prices both come down and affordability improves, we will still be seeing inventory start climbing up again in the new year. There’s also a pipeline of specs under construction that, when combined with built-to-order homes, is close to the record highs recorded in 2006. When these hit the market and are combined with whatever little burst of resale listings our homeowners can muster up, we will be experiencing the effects of today’s interest rates in a rising inventory environment for the first time.

Get 50% off: If you enjoy this article, would like to support my work and have the means, I can offer you 50% off for life: Get 50% off forever

The fact that the market has shifted so dramatically, even in a declining inventory environment, is testament to the 180-degree turn that buyers have taken at the tail end of this year.

And no wonder: with overvalued real estate and record high interest rates, housing affordability is at an all time low. As a result, transaction volume in Philadelphia plummeted 40% from June to October of this year. One might try to attribute this to normal seasonality, but the same period in 2021 saw only a 27% drop.

Just this past summer, buyers were catering to the whims of sellers with waived inspections, above-asking offers, and all the housing boom tricks you’re probably well acquainted with at this point. Bidding wars were still an expected and despised part of the home buying process.

By October, buyer activity had dried up, and sellers were placing reverse offers.

These days, one can hardly show a home to their buyer client without fielding a series of calls from the listing agent offering escalating concessions in a desperate attempt to bring in an offer. The change has been stark and sudden, with housing market analyst Ivy Zelman declaring that the rate of change is “faster than she’s ever seen”.

1669866246936.png

It’s important to note that not only did 7% rates hit when inventory was on its way down- peak inventory in 2022, which was reached in June, was the lowest annual peak since 2018, with only 8,582 listings. So when inventory fell this year, it was falling from already depressed levels.

If this is the way the market behaves when already low inventory goes into hibernation mode for the holiday season, how will it behave during the uptick we traditionally see after the new year? Even if we don’t get the panic selling that some are anticipating, our normal seasonal inventory increase, paired with new construction entering the market, could be enough to exert additional downwards pressure on prices that are already falling.

1669866201422.png
******
QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities or any asset class - just my opinions of me and my guests. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. Positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it three times because it’s that important.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Here’s Klaus Schwab’s Latest Plan to Make Your Life Miserable​

BY REBEL CAPITALIST

View: https://youtu.be/nKuz6JNQ2yI
18:18 min

Make no mistake about it, the social insects leading the World Economic Forum do not sleep.

They’re committed to imposing globalist tyranny on the unsuspecting masses of the world.

Technocratic robots like Klaus Schwab view themselves as part of an anointed class that is above the unruly peons.

He believes that his vision of the world trumps all the concerns and misgivings coming from the rabble.

Schwab and his globalist cronies want to build an unaccountable bureaucratic structure that enables them to lord over vast swathes of the globe.

The Great Reset gang would look like nothing more than to micromanage people’s affairs and impoverish them…all while they live like kings .

That’s how these parasitic elites operate.

They will stop at nothing to subject us to their technocratic fantasies.

These people must ultimately be stopped. But achieving this won’t be a walk in the park.

To defeat the Great Reset agenda, people will need to get educated to know what they’re going up against.

And there’s no better place to receive a world class education on the latest globalist schemes than George Gammon’s Rebel Capitalist channel.

Make sure to check out his latest video exposing Klaus Schwab to learn why the Great Reset agenda is alive and well.

Attain this forbidden knowledge here.

—Team Rebel Capitalist
 

Dusty Lady

Veteran Member

Here’s Klaus Schwab’s Latest Plan to Make Your Life Miserable​

BY REBEL CAPITALIST

View: https://youtu.be/nKuz6JNQ2yI
18:18 min

Make no mistake about it, the social insects leading the World Economic Forum do not sleep.

They’re committed to imposing globalist tyranny on the unsuspecting masses of the world.

Technocratic robots like Klaus Schwab view themselves as part of an anointed class that is above the unruly peons.

He believes that his vision of the world trumps all the concerns and misgivings coming from the rabble.

Schwab and his globalist cronies want to build an unaccountable bureaucratic structure that enables them to lord over vast swathes of the globe.

The Great Reset gang would look like nothing more than to micromanage people’s affairs and impoverish them…all while they live like kings .

That’s how these parasitic elites operate.

They will stop at nothing to subject us to their technocratic fantasies.

These people must ultimately be stopped. But achieving this won’t be a walk in the park.

To defeat the Great Reset agenda, people will need to get educated to know what they’re going up against.

And there’s no better place to receive a world class education on the latest globalist schemes than George Gammon’s Rebel Capitalist channel.

Make sure to check out his latest video exposing Klaus Schwab to learn why the Great Reset agenda is alive and well.

Attain this forbidden knowledge here.

—Team Rebel Capitalist
Thanks again Marsh for all the great articles etc you posted for our reading pleasure, even if some gave me severe heartburn.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

ADP private sector November jobs report in and...oh, dear​

BEEGE WELBORN 2:31 PM on November 30, 2022

“Our economy is strong as hell.”

View: https://youtu.be/llwEUH4Lnb4
.43 min

The brakes came on abruptly for the private job market in November.

…Companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 190,000. It also was the lowest total since January 2021.​

This doesn’t bode well for either the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies attempting to stem inflation and stave off a deep recession, nor encouraging for the job market going forward. The big number to take from the ADP report?

100,000 manufacturing jobs gone

1669871770701.png
1669871800424.png

Service industry jobs – waitresses and bartenders – do not keep an economy going, however hard those folks bust their buns. In many instances, they are also fallback gigs for laid-off workers from other sectors. Unnerving in any event.

…In the ADP report, the biggest sector gainer by far was leisure and hospitality, which saw an increase of 224,000.​
However, that was offset by losses in manufacturing (-100,000), professional and business services (-77,000), financial activities (-34,000), and information services (-25,000). Goods-producing industries overall saw a decline of 86,000 jobs, while services firms added 213,000 on net.​

1669871864715.png

But that hiring bump in the service industries won’t last if folks don’t have the money to go out. It’s getting dicey in the TV and streaming industries, too. Talk about “Breaking Bad” and bad breaks…

AMC Networks Inc. said it is planning to lay off about 20% of its U.S. employees, a sign of further disruption at a company that earlier Tuesday announced its chief executive had stepped down less than three months after taking the reins.​
“We have determined we need to conserve resources at this time,” the entertainment company said Tuesday. “This will involve cutbacks in operations which unfortunately includes a large-scale layoff, impacting approximately 20% of our employees in the U.S.” AMC said it has about 1,000 U.S. employees.​

And…well…huh.

1669871938151.png

Another batch of information the Fed takes into account when determining rate increases is the unemployment rate and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, which, to their minds, has been too high (running about 2-1). Their target rate is 1.2 job openings for every job seeker. A report that also dropped this morning – the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS – provides that snapshot for them. The JOLTS came in on a downward slide, as well, and has people raising warning flags about the Fed being overly aggressive. Job openings sank by 353,000 and “quits” (people who leave their job for a better opportunity) hit lows not seen in the past year, even as hiring dries up.

ZeroHedge-730x715.jpg


In more dismal economic news, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI (used to measure the economic health of manufacturing in the Chicago region), came in today alarmingly under estimates.

1669872010092.png

Anything below a 50 reading indicates a retraction in the index. Generally, when the readings are in this territory, we are already in a recession. Sadly, there wasn’t a single positive thing to be gleaned from the report.

Let’s throw pending home sales numbers (largest annual drop ever)…

1669872085751.png

…and the GDP in there for good measure, too, since we’re all in on the economic-hell-in-a-handbasket stuff. Get it over with.

Gregdaco-593x730.jpg


It does not paint a rosy picture, whatever the King of Cones insists. Not to mention the looming stressors at work besides printing money and spiraling inflation that have yet to hit. Diesel shortages and skyhigh prices remain. This little contretemps

Railroads, unions draw their lines in sand as Biden, Congress move to prevent strike

I don’t know that folks who call Pelosi forcing them to work without 4 sick days a “blatant betrayal” are going to roll over...

…”I thought it was kind of laughable that anyone would think that either the Democrats or the Republicans actually cared. Bottom line, they care about money,” he said.​

Even so, “there was always that hope in the back of my mind that maybe someone would do something that was actually right for the American worker for once — instead of just what’s right for corporate America.”

Gonna have to see how it shakes out.

Wrap all that mess in a blanket of lame-duck, fractious, bitterly divided Congress trying to jam through unpopular legislation, maybe even an Omnibus bill?

Yeah. Pfft.

Strong as hell.

View: https://youtu.be/nMcUDtXFxbU
.07 min

[Beege: I updated the CNBC quote at top to include the entire paragraph re: w/ 2021]
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The Todd Herman Show - Blog, Links & Proof

NOV 30 • 49M

Are you ready for Medical PsyOp Phase II?​

Audio 48:48 min

THE THESIS: The Party is not done with the medical tyranny. They are back at it: masks (but this time it’s a “friendly ‘suggestion.’”). They are trying a new approach with the mRNA, it’s just your good old “annual” “vaccine” like the flu (a “vaccine” that may work, sometimes, maybe). They are combining the mRNA and flu shots. The Party is ignoring the hundreds of thousands of quarantine pods being constructed in China, where you get sent when your phone says you are bad.

THE SCRIPTURE & SCRIPTURAL RESOURCES:

Psalm 37: 9-13

9 For those who are evil will be destroyed,

but those who hope in the Lord will inherit the land.

10 A little while, and the wicked will be no more;

though you look for them, they will not be found.

11 But the meek will inherit the land

and enjoy peace and prosperity.

12 The wicked plot against the righteous

and gnash their teeth at them;

13 but the Lord laughs at the wicked,

for he knows their day is coming.

John 8:44

You are of your father the devil, and your will is to do your father's desires. He was a murderer from the beginning, and has nothing to do with the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks out of his own character, for he is a liar and the father of lies.

John 10:10

The thief comes only to steal and kill and destroy. I came that they may have life and have it abundantly.

THE NEWS & COMMENT:

A man who wrote a paper where he stated we need to change our entire way of life to comport with his ideas, who merchandised a virus that had been in the wild for probably two years to rig an election and worse, says he is “not political” and the Mockingbird Media still let him run his con. Why would the technocrats NOT try to do it again?

[AUDIO] - Fauci claims Republicans “clearly politicized” COVID and that he is “not political at all.”

Refuse to pretend a man is a woman and you might get kicked out of the hospital. With intent like this, what would stop the technocrats from pushing for even more power?

'Kick non-woke patients to the curb'? Mass General Brigham speech code includes blacklist on care; Spokesperson says "repeatedly" using "unwelcome" language on gender or race can trigger removal and ban on future non-emergency care, won't say if deadnaming or misgendering are code violations.

The hundreds of thousands of pods the CCP is building into which they will lock human beings is supposedly about a mild flu. Right. Sure. Okay. It’s really about an enforcement mechanism for their “Social Credit System”, the same thing The Party is building here, but more slowly boiling the frog by using social media banishment, mask-shaming and making bullying of white people official government policy.

[AUDIO] - The CCP is betting big on using the Covid Flu to make the world shut its mouth about their social credit system they are using to make people into mindless robots

This is a quote from a professor who is seemingly ALWAYS wrong about his world-ending “models” for events like Mad Cow and the Covid. All his “errors” go in one direction: we will all die unless the technocrats seize control. He was deeply impressed with the CCP’s assaults on people and wanted to do it in Europe and got way with it with no punishment. So, again I ask, why would they not try it all again?



Yes, he really did say that:

Neil Ferguson interview: China changed what was possible; The Professor has given an extraordinary interview to The Times

And, when he had the Covid Flu he himself broke quarantine! But, it was for a good cause: to maintain his adulterous sexual romps.

Neil Ferguson: UK coronavirus adviser resigns after breaking lockdown rules; Key expert in coronavirus response resigns from Sage after admitting ‘error of judgment

The Party is changing their tone ever so carefully, now masks are a “suggestion . . . ”

[AUDIO] - CNN’s senior medical correspondent: “Wearing a mask is going to help protect you against the flu …RSV, and Covid, and other respiratory diseases.”

But, the sociopathic Tony Fauci pretends the CDC tracks viral load regionally which would require actually, you know, doing that which the fraudulent application of PCR tests does-not-accomplish. Still, the Mockingbird Media parades him around as some kind of benevolent Doctor-King

[AUDIO] - Fauci still thinks that your kids should be locked out of school if there are regional Covid spikes, despite the fact they’re at no risk and lockdowns do nothing to stop the virus. He’s a psychopath, and people who believed in him should be ashamed

Get your “ANNUAL” Covid injection?!?

1669872628251.png

Meanwhile . . .



3 heart attacks, 33 hospitalizations at Spanish half-marathon; Third tragic marathon this year; media blame weather

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Paycheck to Paycheck: Americans Struggle in Democrats’ Broken Economy​

Paycheck to Paycheck: Americans Struggle in Democrats’ Broken Economy
Americans are struggling in Democrats’ broken economy.

November 30, 2022

Paycheck to Paycheck: Americans Struggle in Democrats’ Broken Economy
Democrats’ broken economy continues to spiral towards recession as employers added far fewer jobs than expected in November. Some industries, including manufacturing and financial services, are reporting job losses.

Fox Business: Private payroll job growth slowed sharply in November, evidence that the historically hot labor market is finally starting to cool off, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.​
Companies added just 127,000 jobs last month, missing the 200,000 gain that economists surveyed by Refinitiv had predicted…​
The biggest losses, meanwhile, were in the manufacturing industry, which saw payrolls decline by 100,000. Professional and business services lost 77,000 jobs, and financial activities shed 34,000.​

Other data paints an even bleaker picture of the economy. The number of job openings fell more than expected, and pending home sales declined for the fifth consecutive month. Americans remain pessimistic about the economy, with a strong majority saying the economy is already in a recession. Inflation — fueled by Democrats’ reckless spending — continues to outpace wage gains, giving workers an effective pay cut, and most Americans say they are living paycheck to paycheck.

CNBC: As of October, 60% of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, according to a recent LendingClub report. A year ago, the number of adults who felt stretched too thin was closer to 56%…​
Not only are day-to-day expenses higher, but inflation has also caused real wages to decline. Real average hourly earnings are down 3% from a year earlier, according to the latest reading from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A separate report by Salary Finance found that two-thirds of working adults said they are worse off financially than they were a year ago.​
Already, credit card balances are surging, up 15% in the most recent quarter, the largest annual jump in more than 20 years.​

1669872975820.png

Bottom Line: Americans are struggling in Democrats’ broken economy.
 
Top