GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Amy Kelly: Pfizer Documents Disclose Staggering Drop In Male Fertility From The Covid Vaccine 5:34 min

Amy Kelly: Pfizer Documents Disclose Staggering Drop In Male Fertility From The Covid Vaccine​

Bannons War Room Published October 3, 2022 2,368 Views

(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^^
Hmm reminds me of the Prime tv series Utopia

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFLyisOfadU
4:06 min

Utopia Predictive Programming - Mass Sterilization​

Dec 9, 2020

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Wits' End
Scene from Channel 4's "Utopia".
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Darren Beattie: Biden's Attack On Southern Memorials Remove The History Americans Fight For 8:32 min

Darren Beattie: Biden's Attack On Southern Memorials (Arlington Cemetery) Remove The History Americans Fight For​

Bannons War Room Published October 3, 2022

^^^^
EXCLUSIVE

Biden’s War on Southern War Memorials Has Backfired: Have Southern Service Members Had Enough?​

September 29, 2022 (4d ago)

America’s military leadership has spent the past two decades disgracing the U.S. armed forces. Now they are prepared to desecrate America’s military dead.

An independent commission is recommending that the Confederate memorial at Arlington National Cemetery be dismantled and taken down, as part of its final report to Congress on the renaming of military bases and assets that commemorate the Confederacy.

[Retired Army Brig Gen Ty] Seidule said the panel determined that the memorial at Arlington was “problematic from top to bottom”. He said the panel recommended that it be entirely removed, with only the granite base remaining.

The statue, unveiled in 1914, features a bronze woman, crowned with olive leaves, standing on a 32ft pedestal, and was designed to represent the American south. According to Arlington, the woman holds a laurel wreath, a plow stock and a pruning hook, with a biblical inscription at her feet that says: “They have beat their swords into plough-shares and their spears into pruning hooks.”

This decision (if it comes to pass) is an atrocity. The monument at Arlington is indisputably a brilliant work of art, of the sort America is incapable of replicating today.

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The statue is the masterwork of Moses Jacob Ezekiel, one of America’s first and most noteworthy Jewish artists. Before his sculpting career, Ezekiel was the first-ever Jewish cadet at the Virginia Military Institute, and was one of the 247 mostly-teenaged cadets who immortalized themselves at the Battle of New Market, the only time in American history that a school’s student body deployed as a combat unit. For Ezekiel, the Confederate monument was a deeply personal tribute to the cadets he served alongside, and he is currently buried near the monument.

The Confederate monument is not simply a tribute to the Confederacy, but also to the healing of America after the Civil War. Go through world history, and it is rare to find a nation recover from a civil war as completely as America did after 1865. In some nations, like Spain or Afghanistan, civil wars are cyclical, recurring again and again. In others, like Iraq or Northern Ireland, civil war becomes a constant state of low-level violence lasting decades. And in others, like Russia or China, the victory of one side over another is simply the prelude to a wholesale massacre of the defeated party.

America avoided all of these afflictions. It fought one civil war, for four years, and when it was over, it was over. There were no mass reprisals and executions, there was no drawn-out insurgency, and most importantly, there was no second civil war.

After the American Civil War, the South was allowed to honor its heroes and mourn its war dead. Ezekiel’s statute movingly portrays this reconciliation. It is not decorated with belligerent promises of another rebellion, or a defiant celebration of violence. On the base of the statue, Ezekiel inscribes a quotation from Isaiah, “And they shall beat their swords into ploughshares and their spears into pruning hooks”; the South has fought, but now it returns to the ways of peace. On the front of the statue, in Latin, is a quote from Lucan’s “Pharsalia”: “The victorious cause pleased the Gods, but the lost cause pleased Cato.”

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Ezekiel defends the South’s cause as noble and just, but importantly, he concedes that it is lost, and will not rise again.

When President Woodrow Wilson dedicated the monument in 1914, he called it an “emblem,” not of the South, but of “a reunited people.” And for a century, that’s what it was.

But the ruling American regime is now at war with its own history, its own symbols, and its own people, so the Arlington Confederate memorial will pay the price. Tearing down these monuments is not a show of national “healing.” It is a show of ideological brute force, a display of power and a humiliation of one’s enemies. And of course, the tone of those doing it makes this obvious.

It’s worth stopping to look at who is responsible for this. The spokesman of this atrocity is retired brigadier general Ty Seidule, who served as vice-chair of the commission to evaluate Confederate names and is the one quoted in every article about it. Seidule sports a visage that might charitably be described as “McMullin-esque”.

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Ty Seidule
For the past two decades, Seidule has primarily been employed as a history professor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Every military academy, of course, should make its cadets study military history. History, after all, is one of the best ways to learn tactics, leadership, military organization, and grand strategy.

But with Ty Seidule on staff, West Point didn’t get that kind of history. Instead, Seidule is exactly the kind of historian you’d expect the modern U.S. military to cultivate and reward. His CV is a joke. Instead of specializing in hard military history, his career instead shows the same old tedious focus on race and gender topics that have made so many other academic departments a travesty.

All of the following are papers published or lectures delivered by Seidule:

  • “Named for the Enemy: The U.S. Army’s Confederate Problem,” Perspectives on History: The Newsmagazine of the American Historical Association, August 2020.
  • “Black Power Cadets: How African American Students Defeated President Nixon’s Confederate Monument and Changed West Point, 1971-1976,” Hudson River Valley Review, 2019.
  • “From Slavery to Black Power: Racial Intolerance at West Point, 1778-2014” Intolerance: Political Animals and Their Prey, ed. Robert Tully and Bruce Chilton, Hamilton Books, 2017.
  • “A History of Juneteenth,” Highland Falls, NY, 2018.
  • “A Confederate Reckoning: Reflections on Civil War Memory,” Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 2018.
  • “A Short History of Confederate Memorialization at West Point,” The Confederate Monument Debate Panel, West Point, 2017.
  • “Educating Diversity through History,” Mellon Foundation Conference, “Beyond Black and Blue: Race and the Future of Civil Military Relations,” United States Air Force Academy and Colorado College, 2017.
  • “Robert E. Lee and the Lost Cause,” The Kennedy Center, November 2015.
  • “Educating Diversity in the Department of History,” West Point Diversity Leadership Conference, May 2015.
  • “A Short History of Intolerance at West Point,” Bard Seminar on Intolerance, West Point, N.Y., February 2015.
  • “Uncomfortable: A Short History of African Americans at West Point,” Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial Lecture, West Point, January 2015.
  • “A History of –isms at West Point: Racism and Sexism at the United States Military Academy,” Keynote Speech, Corbin Women’s Leadership Summit, 2014.
  • “The African-American Experience in World War I,” Guilderland Library, Guilderland, New York, November 2005
Seidule’s CV also boasts that he is the senior editor of several e-books: “The West Point Guide to the Civil Rights Movement”, “The West Point Guide to Gender and War”, and “The West Point Guide to Immigration History”. He brags about his role creating the “West Point History Diversity Poster Series”. Oh, and embarrassingly enough for all parties involved, he’s also been featured in a PragerU video:

View: https://youtu.be/pcy7qV-BGF4
5:51 min

Despite a long career, Seidule has written only one full-length book, and it’s not on an actual military history topic. Instead, the book, “Robert E. Lee and Me”, is a tedious rant whining about American racism and trashing Lee as a bigot and traitor. Like a dutiful servant of modern wokism, Seidule’s book capitalizes “Black” but not “white.” He uses words like “racist” or “racism” 66 times in the book, and derivatives of “white supremacy” 80 times. Early in the book he debases himself with a lengthy struggle session where he apologizes for once having enjoyed Disney’s harmless “Song of the South” film:

The nightly reading of Uncle Remus led the Seidule family to Sunday night viewing of NBC’s Wonderful World of Disney. We were one of 100 million people who saw the Disney TV show a year. The program opened with the song “Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah” from Disney’s Song of the South, a live-action/animated musical film made in 1946. We sang the song on car trips. Even now, decades later, when I say the word “Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah,” the melody and the lyrics invade my brain like a musical earworm.

The book my dad read to us every night, Disney’s Uncle Remus, was a companion to the movie Song of the South. After years of hearing the adventures of Brer Rabbit and Brer Fox, I couldn’t wait to go see the movie.

Nothing could have prepared me better. The movie told the story of Johnny, whose parents bring him to his grandmother’s plantation. The father leaves the family to go back to Atlanta for work, and Johnny, upset and missing his dad, decides to run away. Uncle Remus finds the boy and through the stories of Brer Rabbit and Brer Fox persuades him to return home. Yet when Uncle Remus brings the child back to the main plantation house, Johnny’s mother chides Remus for not bringing him home immediately. In the finale, Johnny races across an open field and a bull tramples him. Uncle Remus carries him back home, and through storytelling the boy makes a miraculous recovery.

The movie is a racist trope. White people with important white people issues solve their problems with the help of a kindly old Black man dressed in rags.

Watching it recently, I found it unbearable. For me it’s so awful because I know how much I loved it as a child. It’s a genre of American writing known as plantation fiction, the moonlight and magnolias school, that makes the plantation a rural fantasy of the better, simpler life compared with the modern, impersonal age of technology.

As a devotee of destroying and erasing art, Seidule praises Disney for not rereleasing the film, and opines that it should never be allowed to see the light of day again.

Now, with the army he educated having been humiliated by the Taliban, Seidule seems to figure “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” Just as the Taliban blows up great works of art that offend its ideology, Seidule wants to demolish the great artworks of his own nation that offend his.

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The only lesson Ty Seidule thought worth learning from the Afghan War? How to destroy great art.

Seidule describes his “evolution” in learning he was taught “lies” and “myths” as a child. But the reality is, like a good little obedient dog, Seidule is an NPC sporting a newly-installed ideological software update — “Sir yes Sir!” The notion of the Confederacy as a virtually unmatched historic evil is not “real history”. It is an invention of the past few years, developed for contemporary political purposes.

The press trashed President Trump as clueless and “odd” for praising Robert E. Lee in 2021 after Richmond junked his statue on Monument Avenue. But Trump, a native New Yorker, was just giving voice to the national consensus of the entire 20th century — that Robert E. Lee, whatever his flaws, was a great American.

Winston Churchill wrote that Lee was “one of the noblest Americans who ever lived, and one of the greatest captains known to the annals of war.” Theodore Roosevelt — a native New Yorker whose father helped mobilize support for the Union cause — said that Lee was “without any exception the very greatest of all the great captains that the English-speaking peoples have brought forth.” FDR called Lee “one of our greatest American Christians and one of our greatest American gentlemen.” President Harry Truman at one point gave his mother a portrait of Lee. Presidents Johnson, Ford, and Reagan all spoke highly of Lee. It was a respect that transcended sectional divides. In 1960, while still a Massachusetts senator, John F. Kennedy said that “as a New Englander, I recognize that the South is still the land of Washington, who made our nation — of Jefferson, who shaped its direction — and of Robert E. Lee who, after gallant failure, urged those who had followed him in bravery to reunite America in purpose and courage.”

Obviously, none of these men were admirers or slavery or wish the South had won the Civil War. Instead, the old America saw the greatness even of its flawed heroes. It could valorize men on both sides of a great national divide. It could celebrate men for their virtues — courage, cunning, piety, and integrity — while rejecting causes they fought for. It was, in short, a better and more nobler Christian country than the one we have now, with a better ruling elite.

Just as the old respect given to Robert E. Lee or other Confederate heroes had nothing to do with affirming the Confederate cause, the desecration of the Confederate Memorial at Arlington, or other monuments across the country, has almost nothing to do with the Confederacy at all, or the historical conflict between North and South. Instead, these attacks are simply one facet of the larger attack on America itself: Its heroes, its history, its institutions, and most importantly, its historical population.

When the January 6 incident happened, Seidule immediately vomited forth a woke hot take: anybody who questioned the 2020 election results was a traitor:

I wish elected officials, especially Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz who gave fuel to this conflagration, had read their oath. The same oath I took to serve in uniform. The same oath taken by everyone in the federal government.

The author of the oath was none other than Charles Sumner. Written in 1862, the oath was a reaction to secession and treason. “I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic.” Who were domestic enemies? Confederates who refused to accept the results of a democratic election. Who should we think of as domestic enemies today? Those who refuse to accept the results of a free and fair election.

Seidule isn’t endorsing grave desecration because he is profoundly upset about the Confederacy. In reality, Seidule has simply thrown in his lot with an ideological movement that wants to obliterate every symbol of the old America, and any class of people associated with those symbols. According to Seidule, America is rotten to the core, and only its total replacement can make it “worthy” again.

“Racism is the virus in the American dirt, infecting everything and everyone,” he says in his whiny memoir. It’s no surprise that for such a character, not even a war memorial is sacred. Why would anything be sacred in a country so tainted?

But of course, there’s a problem: while Seidule trashes America and its people as racist garbage, he still feels entitled to sacrifice them in far-off wars for his new regime. The old America and the old West Point that Seidule hates so much had no difficulty recruiting men to fight for it, even among the descendants of Robert E. Lee’s Confederate Army. Seidule’s woke iconoclastic army, on the other hand, can’t win wars, and in fact it can’t even dupe anyone into signing up to fight them.

Military Recruiting Hits ‘Crisis’ Level Lows, Americans Urged to Return to a ‘Society of Service’

The U.S. Army is on track to have its worst recruiting year since Vietnam – a shortfall that could have implications for decades.

“This could potentially be multi-generational in terms of its impact. Young recruits today, become our young and senior leaders of tomorrow. So if you can’t develop them today, you have a gap in leadership tomorrow,” Col. Matthew Amidon, Director of Veterans and Military Families at the George W. Bush Institute, told CBN News.

Right now, the Army has only reached about 52 percent of its recruiting goal for the current fiscal year, which ends later this month.
[CBN News]

Military service in America is very much not evenly distributed across the population. Service runs in families—more than 30 percent of current personnel had a parent who served. Soldiers are drawn heavily from the rural South. According to some reports, as much as 44 percent of enlistees come from the sixteen states comprising the South. Many of these southern enlistees have a legacy of service tracing back to Vietnam, both World Wars, and yes, the Confederacy. When America was a greater nation, it could resolve this tension by honoring Confederate alongside Unionist. Now, our military desecrates their graves, and tells today’s soldiers “play along, or it will be your grave getting dug up some day.” The old military inspired men to fight for the land of their fathers, and for their Constitution. The Ty Seidule military tells men that their fathers were trash, and that they are fighting for diversity and transgenderism.

(read the rest at Revolver: Biden’s War on Southern War Memorials Has Backfired: Have Southern Service Members Had Enough? - Revolver News
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Ep. 2890a - UN Tells [CB] Stop Raising Rates, Panic, They Never Thought Their Plan Would Be Exposed 16:58 min

Ep. 2890a - UN Tells [CB] Stop Raising Rates, Panic, They Never Thought Their Plan Would Be Exposed​

X22 Report Published October 3, 2022

The Secretary of State Blinken is letting everyone know that since the Nordstream explosion this is a tremendous opportunity for Europe to remove dependence to Russia. How convenient. The Green New Deal would not have worked in Florida. The UN panics and tells The [CB]s to stop raising rates.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Former Pentagon Advisor Says US Likely Attacked Nord Stream Pipelines To Isolate Germany​

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 10:45 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A former Pentagon advisor says the most likely culprits behind the Nord Stream pipeline blasts are the United States and Britain, and that the attack was carried out to prevent Germany from bailing on the war in Ukraine.

Retired US Army colonel Douglas Macgregor made the comments during an appearance on the Judging Freedom podcast.

Macgregor said a process of elimination rules out Germany, because they are dependent on Nord Stream for their energy security, while it also served no benefit for Russia to have sabotaged its own infrastructure.

“Would the Russians destroy their own pipeline? 40 percent of Russian gross national product or gross domestic product consists of foreign currency that comes into the country to purchase natural gas, oil, coal and so forth. So the Russians did not do this. The notion that they did I think is absurd,” Macgregor said.

Referring to Polish MEP Radoslaw Sikorski’s infamous deleted tweet in which he wrote, “Thank you, USA,” Macgregor noted, “Who else might be involved? Well the Poles apparently seem to be very enthusiastic about it.”

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However, citing reports that more than 500 kg of TNT had been detected in both explosions, the former Pentagon advisor suggested only the United States and British Royal Navy had the capability to pull off the attack.

“Then you have to look at who are the state actors that have the capability to do this. And that means the Royal Navy, the United States Navy Special Operations,” said Macgregor.

“I think that’s pretty clear. We know that thousands of pounds of TNT were used because these pipelines are enormously robust. You have several inches of concrete around various metal alloys to move the natural gas. So it’s not something that you could simply drop a grenade down at the end of a fish line and disrupt. That means it takes a certain amount of sophistication,” he added.

Macgregor suggested that the motive behind the attacks was to prevent Germany from bailing on the Ukraine war after Berlin began “to give the impression that they were no longer going to go along with this proxy war in Ukraine.”

“I’m hesitant to say ‘we know it must have been Washington’. I can’t say that because we just don’t know. But it’s very clear that we have foreclosed Berlin’s options. Berlin was drifting away from this alliance.

[Chancellor] Olaf Scholz said ‘I’m not sending any more equipment, I won’t send any tanks’. Now he’s in a bind because the United States has simply robbed him of the option of bailing out. Who’s going to supply him gas and oil and coal and everything else if he bails out? Where does he turn now? And remember, the Germans, who are facing terrible consequences at home refuse to restart nuclear power plants,” the former official said.


As we previously reported, the CIA warned Germany of potential attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea weeks before Nord Stream 1 and 2 were targeted.

Both Joe Biden and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland asserted that Nord Stream 2 wouldn’t be allowed to operate if Russia attacked Ukraine.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"We Own The Science": UN Official Admits That They Partner With Google To Control Search Results​

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 12:26 PM
The UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications, Melissa Fleming, recently admitted in a discussion with the World Economic Forum that the globalist institution has partnered with Big Tech platforms like Google in order to control search results on subjects like climate change, making the establishment narrative the predominant narrative while suppressing information and data that runs contrary to the UN's climate agenda.

Fleming went on to state that the UN is in control of the science: “We own the science, and we think that the world should know it, and the platforms themselves also do.”

View: https://youtu.be/-rnhB29xCz4
.43 min


In fact, no one "owns the science" on climate change, covid, or any other issue. If the data does not support a narrative then the narrative should be abandoned as faulty. The UN seems to think otherwise.

This open admission only reconfirms what the alternative media has been saying for years, that Big Tech corporations, governments and globalist institutions are actively collaborating to crush dissenting data and opinions as a means to keep the public as ignorant of the truth as possible. Far from "fact checking" or fighting "disinformation," globalist efforts are purely about elevating their own propaganda as a means to gain more authority over society.

Carbon emissions laws associated with the UN's "Agenda 2030" give immense and intrusive power to governments over industry, private property as well as individual freedoms. It only makes sense that the UN would try to combat any information source that contradicts the implementation of such laws; they have everything to gain by preventing the public from viewing all the information and making an informed decision on their own.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Home Prices Crash At Fastest Pace Since Lehman Bankruptcy​

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 11:45 AM

The housing market is finally getting unglued: less than a week after Case Shiller (which reports home prices with a substantiakl laga) reported the first negative monthly change in home prices...



... today Black Knight confirmed that the US housing market has turned decidedly ugly with the two biggest monthly declines since the global financial crisis.

According to a Monday report from mortgage-data provider, median home prices fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier, following a 1.05% drop in July.



The two periods marked the largest monthly declines since January 2009. In fact, at the current pace of declines, we may soon see a record drop in home prices, surpassing the largest historical slide hit during the global financial crisis.

The report noted that July and August 2022 mark the largest single-month price declines seen since January 2009 and rank among the eight largest on record.



“The Black Knight HPI for August marked the second consecutive month that prices pulled back at the national level, with the median home price now 2% off of its June peak,” said Graboske. “Only marginally better than July’s revised 1.05% monthly decline, home prices were down an additional 0.98% in August.

Either one of them would have been the largest single-month price decline since January 2009 – together they represent two straight months of significant pullbacks after more than two years of record-breaking growth. The only months with materially higher single-month price declines than we’ve seen in July and August were in the winter of 2008, following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and subsequent financial crisis.

The report also noted that the monthly rate of home price decline is now rivaling that seen during the Great Recession – the question is how long it will continue to do so, and how far off peaks prices will fall.

Separately, the August report also found that after rising sharply from May through July, for-sale inventory levels stalled in August, growing at just 1/10th the rate of recent months, as sellers appeared to take a step back from the market, perhaps waiting for mortgage rates to plunge as the recession arrives.



The national inventory deficit held relatively steady at -44%, with the market remaining more than 600K listings short as compared to pre-pandemic levels.

For its part, Black Knight suggests that sellers are likely being deterred by both falling demand and prices, along with a growing disincentive to give up historically low interest rate mortgages in a sharply rising rate environment.

That said, and as is the case with Case Shiller, while prices are falling on a month-over-month basis, they’re still significantly higher than a year earlier when the buying frenzy was just getting started: In August, home prices were 12.1% compared to a year ago, if sharply lower from the 20% Y/Y change hit earlier this summer.

The sharpest correction in August was in San Jose, California, down 13% from its 2022 peak, followed by San Francisco at almost 11% and Seattle at 9.9%, the company said.



Yet as home prices tumble, there are no surprises in the list of most affordable housing markets, where the usual suspects - those cities where a walk down a street almost guaranteed a gunshot wound - dominate: St Louis, Detroit and Kansas City.



Alternatively, while prices may have dropped, the three most unaffordable MSAs remain on the west coast: Sacramento, Seattle and Riverside.


Full Black Knight report below (pdf link):

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Download this PDF
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment


FEMA Chief Responds to Kamala Harris Claim About Prioritizing ‘Communities of Color’

By Jack Phillips October 2, 2022 Updated: October 2, 2022biggersmaller Print

The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said that the administration will “support all communities” following a remark by Vice President Kamala Harris that “communities of color … are most impacted” by hurricanes.

About a day after Hurricane Ian ravaged Florida, Harris made the remarks and said that those communities are most “impacted by these extreme conditions” and that “we are all thinking about the families in Florida and Puerto Rico with [Hurricane] Fiona and what we need to do to help them in terms of an immediate response and aid.”

“We have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equity, understanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity … sometimes we have to take into account those disparities,” she said.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1576132731918225408
.40 min

FEMA Director Deanne Criswell was asked about the vice president’s comments during a CBS News interview on Sunday.

“We’re going to support all communities,” Criswell said in response. “I committed that to the governor, I commit to you right here that all Floridians are going to be able to get the help that is available to them through our programs.”

She added: “One of the things that I have known and I have experienced responding to other disasters is that there are people that often have a hard time accessing our programs, there’s barriers to our program.”

A spokesperson for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Christina Pushaw, asserted that Harris’s comment was unhelpful and is causing panic among victims of Ian.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1576735707799748608
.16 min

Harris’s remark “is false,” Pushaw wrote on Twitter, adding that it is “causing undue panic and must be clarified. FEMA Individual Assistance is already available to all Floridians impacted by Hurricane Ian, regardless of race or background. If you need assistance visit disasterassistance.gov or call 1-800-621-3362.”

In a separate Twitter post, Pushaw called on Harris to “correct what she said.”

Other than Pushaw, others provided Harris with negative feedback over the remark. “Should be according to greatest need, not race or anything else,” wrote Tesla CEO Elon Musk in response.

Nearly 850,000 homes and businesses were still without electricity Sunday, down from a peak of 2.67 million, after Ian struck.

Criswell told “Fox News Sunday” that the federal government began to arrange the “largest amount of search and rescue assets that I think we’ve ever put in place before” to supplement Florida’s resources.

At least 54 people have been confirmed dead: 47 in Florida, four in North Carolina, and three in Cuba. The weakened storm drifted north on Sunday and was expected to dump rain on parts of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania, according to the National Hurricane Center, which warned of the potential for flash-flooding.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Peter Schiff: The Bank Of England Rings The Mother Of All Bells

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 09:25 AM
Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week, the Bank of England suddenly pivoted.

It gave up its inflation fight to rescue its pension funds and bond market. What exactly happened? And what does it tell us about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight? Peter Schiff explained it all on his podcast.

There is an old expression — “No one rings a bell” — meaning there’s no warning when there is a major top or bottom in the markets. But Peter said there often is a bell but nobody hears it. Last week, Peter said we got the “mother of all bells.”

It was literally Big Ben that rang because the bell was in England... The Bank of England was the first major central bank to blink in this global game of chicken.”

View: https://youtu.be/pafAkLPcL9E
44:28 min

Last week, the Bank of England pivoted and returned to quantitative easing.

Peter called this development “very significant.” Because up until the announcement, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was just as hawkish as Jerome Powell. The Bank of England raised interest rates from 0.1% last December to roughly 2.25%, including a 50 basis point rate hike in August. It was the largest BoE rate hike in 27 years.

He was talking tough about how resolute the Bank of England was to fighting inflation. They’ve got the highest inflation in Europe. It’s way above their 2% target. It’s a double-digit number. It’s above 10%.”

Bailey even said he was committed to bringing down inflation no matter the cost and said he was willing to endure some pain, just like Jerome Powell.

Well, that was all a bluff because we got some pain overnight and Bailey folded like a cheap suit. And instead of quantitative tightening, they’re back to quantitative easing. The rate hikes are probably permanently on hold because the Bank of England refused to allow a potential crisis to unfold as a result of rising interest rates.”

The crisis manifested itself in the UK pension system with plunging bond prices. CNBC summed up the problem.

In order to top up the collateral on these bonds, some funds had to raise cash. But due to the speed of this crisis, many funds were caught out and were forced to liquidate their next most liquid assets, long-term bonds or gilts, causing prices of bonds to fall even more.”

In order to stabilize bond prices, the BoE stepped in to buy long-term bonds, creating artificial demand and propping up prices.

This pension problem isn’t exclusive to the United Kingdom. Pensions systems worldwide face the same issue, including in the United States.

When interest rates fall to zero, bond holdings in pension funds don’t generate as much interest income. Pensions need this income to pay benefits. So, in order to boost their incomes, pension funds borrow money at low interest rates to buy new long-term bonds using existing bonds as collateral. They make up for lower yields by holding more bonds.

But when interest rates rise, the value of their bond portfolio collapses even as the interest on their debt rises.

All of the pension funds that had borrowed short to buy long-term bonds were getting crushed because the value of the bonds they owned was collapsing and the cost of servicing the debt was soaring, and they were in a position where they were going to get margin calls. Those margin calls were going to force an already collapsing bond market to fall even more and that would have wreaked havoc throughout the United Kingdom.”

In simple terms, instead of raising pension contributions or cutting pension benefits to deal with their shortfalls, pension managers took the easy, but reckless way out and borrowed money.

On top of that, the newly elected British prime minister rewarded voters with a big tax cut that threw even more gasoline on the inflationary fire.

Great Britain was looking at a potential crash in the bond market and the Bank of England rode in to save the day.

The Bank of England folded. They pivoted. They decided to launch a new QE program. Remember, yesterday, they were committed to quantitative tightening. Now they said they will buy whatever it takes. They have committed to another QE infinity in order to prop up the bond market. They now have to print British pounds to buy these gilts. So, instead of fighting inflation, which yesterday was public enemy number one – it had to be brought down at any cost – now, all of a sudden, when you see the cost, well, forget about that. We’re now going to create inflation.”

The central bankers in England claim this is not a monetary policy decision. It was a move to avert a crisis. But as Peter said, it is most definitely a monetary policy decision.

That’s the only policy they make — monetary policy. Deciding to launch QE is monetary policy. I don’t care what you want to pretend. That’s what it is.”

The BoE also said it just wants to maintain an orderly market.

Well, you can’t fight inflation and maintain an orderly market because the markets have been propped up by inflation. So, if you’re going to fight inflation, you’d better be prepared for a disorderly market. And until yesterday, the Bank of England was bluffing that they were. But now that their bluff has been called, they had to show their cards, and they’re holding nothing. And so, inflation won.”

You might think this has nothing to do with you if you’re reading this in the US. The problem is, the Federal Reserve is also bluffing. It’s only a matter of time before their bluff gets called.

Is the Federal Reserve, when confronted with the same situation, will they make a different choice than the Bank of England? Does the Federal Reserve have more integrity? Are these guys willing to allow a financial crisis? Because the same thing is going to happen here. We’ve got all sorts of leverage in our markets. We’ve got a bigger debt bubble than the British. It’s just that the day of reckoning for us is not going to come as early as it did for them because the dollar is going up.”

When that day of reckoning does come, Peter said he expects Jerome Powell to make the same decision as Andrew Bailey.

I don’t care how much he wants to bark about being tough on inflation. At the end of the day, he will not bite. The Fed is a paper tiger and it will fold just as quickly as the Bank of England when they’re confronted with an actual crisis.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Supreme Court To Hear Case Challenging Tech Industry's Section 230 Immunity​

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 08:44 AM

The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to weigh in on whether tech companies should be allowed immunity over 'problematic' content posted by users.

The case at hand alleges that YouTube aided and abetted the killing of an American in coordinated 2015 terrorist attacks carried out by ISIS, which killed 130 people. The family of one of the victims, Nohemi Gonzalez, has argued that YouTube's active role in recommending videos overcomes the liability shield for internet companies enacted by Congress in 1996 as part of the Communications Decency Act.

Section 230 of that act absolves online platforms of liability from content posted by users - and has come under fire in recent years, with the right claiming that it allows companies to inappropriately censor conservative views, and the left saying it allows social media companies to spread dangerous right-wing wrongthink, CBS News reports.

Gonzalez was a 23-year-old college student studying in France when she was killed while dining at a restaurant during the wave of attacks, which also targeted the Bataclan concert hall.

Her family is seeking to sue Google-owned YouTube for allegedly allowing ISIS to spread its message
. The lawsuit targets YouTube’s use of algorithms to suggest videos for users based on content they have previously viewed.

YouTube’s active role goes beyond the kind of conduct that Congress intended to protect with Section 230, the family’s lawyers allege. They say in court papers that the company “knowingly permitted ISIS to post on YouTube hundreds of radicalizing videos inciting violence” that helped the group recruit supporters, some of whom then conducted terrorist attacks. -NBC News


Lawyers for Gonzalez's family say YouTube's video recommendations were key to ISIS's ability to spread their message.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

From Useful Idiots To Useless Idiots

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 08:25 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank

From Useful Idiots to Useless Idiots

As bullets fly, if you are someone who only responds to bullet points, try these two:

We may be on the verge of a replay of 2008 – but we can’t use the same central bank policy responses without creating massive inflation, global Arab Springs, and global chaos.

It took a special kind of thinking to get us into this mess, and an equally special kind of thinking is not helping extract us from it.

Before explaining in more detail, first a hat-tip for today’s title to an @andreapitzer tweet: “Noticing the rise of a new category of pundit: the useless idiot.” Her joke refers to the Leninist phrase “Useful idiot”, the definition of which is: “a political insult that describes a person who, through manipulation or not, is useful to a political cause that is not their own despite not fully realizing their role. This makes them “an idiot,” an unwitting and useful pawn of a propagandist.” If you didn’t know that the odds of you being one are exponentially higher than if you did.

For examples, try those who have run the West’s energy, foreign, trade, fiscal, and monetary policy. Too harsh? Well, how else did we end up in this crisis? Following the Ukraine war, the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2, and Gazprom cutting off gas supplies to Italy, such useful idiots are shifting…. but only to show that they are useless idiots.

The EU is to agree 5% power demand reductions in peak periods: how? Eenie-meenie-miney-moe? It may have enough energy for this winter – if no further pipelines its underfunded navies are now rushing to protect are sabotaged.

But EU energy will not be cheap for many years. Germany’s fiscal largesse to prevent outright deindustrialisation, already dividing Europe, is going to require WW2-scale fiscal deficits for as long as WW2. That as Bloomberg reports Biden Officials Float Fuel Export Limit in Meeting With Refiners: great – let’s have a global shortage of fuel too!

Yet the IMF is advising tighter fiscal policy and cuts to social spending into a recession(!)

The UK government says its voters have been living in a “Fool’s paradise” and welcomes a new “age of austerity” - into a biting recession. History shows us that will likely play out.

As an anecdote of how much of an EM the UK now is, my cousin took a coach from Glasgow to London on Saturday because the trains were on strike (as was the postal service). The coach got as far as Newcastle before dumping the passengers with no explanation. He shared a taxi the rest of the 250 mile (472 km) journey; arrived in London to find street protests against government spending cuts, driven by insufficient energy supplies; and then all four of the bridges over the Thames leading to his accommodation closed by protestors saying the UK should stop using oil. Yesterday, another protestor poured urine and faeces over a memorial to a selfless WW2 pilot to protest executive private jets. And @lewis_goodall adds: ““Senior government source” quoted in today’s Times: “Nobody understands gilts, nobody understands the bond markets unless you’re in it. Certainly no MPs do. We are not running a hedge fund, we are running a government. We are thinking about the long term.””

Wrongly: but ‘long term’ does not seem to apply anywhere else.

The BOE were just forced to step in to save UK pension funds using leverage and derivatives to juice low returns following the GFC caused by funds using leverage and derivatives to juice returns. Even though central banks had made it abundantly clear they would raise rates, such trades sat there until a yield surge almost brought down the financial system (again).

Bullet dodged? Maybe. But WE ARE IN A WAR: lots of bullets are flying! The markets will test the BOE again. It will have to act again, in a ‘not QE and not MMT’ manner. It surely will not carry on with QT. That changes our political-economy, unless you are too useful an idiot to see it. And if the BOE acts, GBP will slump, which would be inflationary; and if it doesn’t act, markets will slump, and GBP could still follow.

This is not a British but a global problem everyone could see coming: how do you raise rates when there so much debt has been created by so many years of so low rates?

Is it any surprise that this weekend saw rumours a major investment bank is about to fail? Or that there is talk of European and US pension funds risk being dragged into exactly the same position as the UK, because none were aligned for rates to ever really rise, even as inflation shot up?

Accordingly, while the BOE now has to do more on rates, Bloomberg and @CGasparino suggest a growing split within the FOMC. The latter notes: “@federalreserve officials getting increasingly worried about "financial stability" as opposed to inflation as higher rates begin to crush bonds, several big investors tell me. Fed growing worried about possible "Lehman Moment" w a 4% FF rate as Bonds and derivatives tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not "a one off" and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause.”

However, while Fed Deputy Governor Brainard is watching financial market stability outside the US, and Daly does not want to ‘do too much’, their message is still that US inflation is the priority given the PCE deflator numbers on Friday, and initial claims numbers Thursday. Indeed, Brainard stated: “Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target.. .For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”

So, CNBC can scream ‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world’ – but that does not mean that things can’t and won’t break.

Importantly, even if the Fed wanted to pivot now, it perhaps couldn’t. We see a domestic wage-price spiral underway; and there is a battle over the global financial architecture.

Friday, President Putin gave a vitriolic speech obviously a call to arms against a colonialist, racist, apartheid, perverted hypocrite West in a hybrid war against Russia; claim there is no rules-based order; that the US has created a “precedent” for use of nukes; the West is stealing Ukraine’s grain; blew up Nord Stream; and a new global alliance will rise up against it. Frankly, if you haven’t read at least a summary of it you are edging towards useless idiot territory. You don’t think it matters that the leader who just lost the key city of Lyman to Ukraine, who is facing calls to use tactical nukes there, and who can act on energy, commodities, and in the ‘grey zone’, just railed against “Anglo-Saxon” global financial hegemony in woke fashion, while simultaneously extoling Russian fascist Ivan Ilyin? After all, Putin just said:

“People cannot be fed with printed dollars and euros. You can't feed them with those pieces of paper, and the virtual, inflated capitalisation of western social media companies can't heat their homes… you can't feed anyone with paper – you need food; and you can't heat anyone’s home with these inflated capitalisations – you need energy.”

The West ‘benefitted from WW1 and WW2(!)’, and “in order to free itself from the latest web of challenges, they need to dismantle Russia,” or

“They will try to trigger a collapse of the entire system, and blame everything on that, or, God forbid, decide to use the old formula of economic growth through war.” That collapse may now loom – but from trying to correct the problems previously created. The talk of millenarian expectations of a looming war vs. Russia are a real worry.

“The battlefield to which destiny and history have called us is a battlefield for our people, for the great historical Russia… We must protect them against enslavement and monstrous experiments that are designed to cripple their minds and souls.” In short, they are in this to the bitter end. It remains to be seen who is with them in that struggle.

If you feel the painful (part) truths about the West above outweigh the Big Lie that Russia is a champion of human dignity and freedom offering a true global alternative, then you are a useful idiot. Sadly, that seems to include good minds on the Left and Right so sick of neoliberalism that they are prepared to swallow anything that isn’t it.

As Russia rails against “paper dollars and euros” and extolls the strength of commodities, can the West slash rates or do endless QE to bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world?

As I put it before, the US choice is hedge funds or hegemony. The latter means higher rates, and things blow up in markets. The former means lower rates, and things blow up physically.

Meanwhile, useful not-idiots are trying to repair some of the damage. ‘The dangerous depletion of US weapons’ again underlines the US and West are not prepared for the kind of global confrontation Russia just flagged. Forget spending 2% or 3-4% of GDP on defence: what about the factories to make the military goods needed on scale?

Relatedly, ‘Senators propose China ‘Grand Strategy’ commission to guide US policy’. It seems the machinery of state is finally swinging behind this geopolitical rivalry, and away from Wall Street and “because markets”.

To conclude, isn’t it amazing that just as a proposed ban on stock trading in Congress moves closer to actualisation, following one at the Fed, that both Congress and the Fed are prepared to take actions ostensibly far healthier for the long-run good of the country, even if they are deleterious for stocks? Or am I an idiot for thinking that?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Europe's Winter Energy Preparations: Too Little Too Late?

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 07:36 AM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The EU has managed to fill its gas storage ahead of the deadline, and above target levels.

The Financial Times: some European Union members actually think the measures proposed so far do not go far enough to tackle the crisis.

EU countries are walking a fine line between rising inflation and energy bills and rising debt.

Windfall taxes, power rationing, and price caps on imported gas: these are the main ideas the European Union has produced as it struggles to contain an energy shortage that has spiraled out of all reasonable proportions. The block has managed to fill its gas storage ahead of the deadline and above target levels, and this is perhaps the only piece of good news this year. The EU has also managed—voluntarily and not so voluntarily—to reduce its gas imports from Russia from 41 percent to 9 percent.

It has paid a steep price for that, however, and is still paying it: costly LNG imports make for more expensive gas-fired electricity generation and less competitive products of processes involving natural gas. With energy inflation still running wild, the question now is whether the EU has done enough to survive the winter without too much pain.

“Europe’s energy crisis is only now really starting to hit home, because increases in wholesale prices are still feeding through into firms’ and households’ bills,” Simone Tagliapietra, an energy specialist at Belgian think-tank Bruegel, as quoted by the FT this week.

“The cost for the economy will get way bigger.”

European governments are frantically searching for ways to reduce this pain before it really hits, including French president Emmanuel Macron advising French businesses not to sign new power supply contracts with “crazy prices.” He argued that the government would succeed in defeating energy inflation. French businesses seem skeptical.

Meanwhile, the FT reports that some European Union members actually think the measures proposed so far do not go far enough to tackle the crisis. Yet their calls for more action heighten the risk of social unrest, which is the last thing European governments would want on their hands in a winter of increasingly unavoidable recession.

“There are definitely people around the table who think this is not enough and more needs to be done,” the FT quoted an unnamed EU diplomat as saying.

“We have no interest in energy prices causing instability in member states — it would be a recipe for disaster.”

Apparently, the main idea of those calling for more to be done is imposing a price cap on all gas imports into EU—an idea that the Commission has warned against, saying it posed a “risk of triggering supply disruptions.” In other words, gas sellers might well refuse to sell at a capped price.

While politicians rack their brains for solutions, there are already protests. Tens of thousands of Czechs are protesting again, focusing on their government’s foreign policy, which the protesters are blaming for exorbitant energy bills.

Germans were also protesting earlier this month, and although those protests are a fraction of what’s happening in the Czech Republic, they do suggest governments need to be extremely careful with the measures they implement to deal with the crisis.

France has avoided any major protests so far by pouring billions into energy price caps for households and businesses. It plans to offset some of this expenditure with the windfall tax on energy producers. But even Paris’s pockets are not bottomless, and few expect the crisis to be over before winter 2023.

In fact, a recession for Europe is already all but certain. The president of the World Bank, David Malpass, said in a speech this month that the likelihood of stagflation in Europe was increasing and so was the risk of a recession.

Malpass noted the combination of high interest rates, high inflation, and slowing growth as the components of a perfect storm engulfing the continent and most of the world.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, said this month that recession is virtually a certainty for the European Union because of the absence of a clear plan on how to deal with the supply crunch that has hit European countries.

Business surveys from early September suggested the eurozone, for one, was almost certain to slip into a recession, Reuters reported at the time, noting record-high zone inflation of 9.1 percent for August and a grim outlook for economic activity.

So, Europe is entering a perfect storm of inflation, rising interest rates, energy shortage, and a lack of many realistic options for tackling the storm. It’s quite a plateful, and Europe is clearly struggling to handle it. But while the immediate problem is this winter and surviving it without governments getting overthrown, the bigger problem is that there is no end of the crunch in near sight.

Most expert commentators appear to be in agreement that the crisis will last a few years, with market data supporting this. Rystad Energy, for example, recently forecasted a gas supply gap in Europe for the three years between 2023 and 2025 because of Europe’s ambition to fully replace Russian gas supplies with LNG.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., gas producers are struggling to respond to the level of demand for their product while getting pressured by inflation. What’s more, record LNG exports are pushing up local prices, and this is not making Americans happy. And the best the EU can do is suggest capping the price that European buyers pay for U.S. LNG.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

US Coal Prices Soar Above $200 Amid Energy Crunch​

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 05:40 PM

US natural gas production will need to increase to maintain soaring liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports while ensuring adequate domestic supplies for households and businesses this winter. If not, then electricity generators at power plants will find NatGas uneconomical to run turbines and switch to coal-fired generators. That's precisely what could be happening as US coal prices soar over the $200 per ton mark for the first time.

Bloomberg said spot coal prices for the week ending Sept. 30 increased to $204.95 per ton. Data was sourced from US Energy Information Administration, which said this was the highest price in records dating back to 2005.



The energy-market shockwaves from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rejiggering of Europe's energy supply chain have dramatically increased US LNG exports to the EU this summer and fall. Domestic supplies have significantly tightened the availability for large users, which has pressured prices higher.

As a result, the once-mighty coal industry is returning as the global (in China and Europe) NatGas-to-coal switching could be set to intensify. The rise in coal prices may suggest stockpiling by utilities ahead of a cold winter.

Rising spot coal prices have been favorable for big coal companies: Peabody Energy Corp shares rose 6% to $26.25, and Arch Resources Inc. jumped 7.5% to $127.49. Both coal stocks have been in a lateral formation for much of this year and could break out to the upside if coal prices continue to rise.



The rally in spot coal and coal mining stocks comes under the most progressive White House ever that attempts to kill the fossil fuel industry to decarbonize the power grid with unreliable renewable power sources that have backfired. Worse, US-led sanctions against Russia have further sparked global energy market chaos.

Coal's comeback is a remarkable turnaround for an industry that was on the brink of disaster as banks halted financing and investment firms divested from mines and coal-fired power plants, though some of this has been reversed ahead of what's expected to be a cold and expensive winter.

Increasing coal generation could be a move to help offset some of the power bill pains millions of Americans are facing as NatGas prices send electricity prices higher.

There's one shocking figure by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that shows about 20 million households across the country have already fallen behind on their utility bills.

Perhaps it's time to suspend Biden's decarbonization efforts to protect American families that could be financially slaughtered by energy hyperinflation if NatGas prices were to soar even more.

We don't believe coal will be a long-term solution for grid stability. Instead, we've reminded readers that nuclear could be a big winner in the years ahead.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Buchanan: Is 'Our Democracy' Failing Our Country?

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 06:00 PM
Authored by Pat Buchanan,

Asked, “What is an American?” many would answer, “An American is a citizen of the United States.”

Yet, at the First Continental Congress in 1774, 15 years before the U.S. became a nation of 13 states, Patrick Henry rose to proclaim that, “British oppression has effaced the boundaries of the several colonies; the distinctions between Virginians, Pennsylvanians, New Yorkers, and New Englanders are no more. I am not a Virginian, but an American.”

Henry was saying — more than a dozen years before our constitutional republic was established — that America already existed as a nation, and he was her loyal son.

In an 1815 letter to Thomas Jefferson, long after both men had served as president, John Adams wrote:

“As to the history of the Revolution, my Ideas may be peculiar, perhaps Singular. What do We mean by the Revolution? The War? That was no part of the Revolution. It was only an Effect and Consequence of it. The Revolution was in the Minds of the People, and this was effected, from 1760 to 1775, in the course of fifteen Years before a drop of blood was drawn at Lexington.”

Adams was saying that America was conceived and, as an embryonic nation, grew within the hearts of the peoples of the 13 colonies, two to three decades before the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.

In short, our country came to be before our republic came to be, and long before what we today call “our democracy” came to be. A country is different from, and more than, the political system that it adopts.

France was France all through the Bourbon dynasty, the Revolution of 1789, the creation of the First Republic, the Reign of Terror, Napoleon’s First Empire and the restoration of the Bourbon monarchy — all the way to the creation of the Fifth Republic by President Charles de Gaulle.

And beneath the carapace of the USSR, the heart of Mother Russia continued to beat. Rightly, during the Cold War, we regarded Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria as “captive nations” and captive peoples.

The point: Neither the regime nor the political system imposed, nor some abstract idea, is the country that predates them and has first claim upon the loyalty of its sons and daughters.

In his famous toast, American naval hero Stephen Decatur declared: “Our country! … May she always be in the right; but our country, right or wrong!”

The crisis today for those who incessantly proclaim, “Our democracy is in danger,” is that millions of patriots are coming to see our incumbent regime, “our democracy,” as faithless and failing in its foremost duty — to protect and defend our country and countrymen from enemies foreign and domestic.

Forced constantly by the establishment to choose between them, patriotic Americans may one day come to choose, as did their fathers, the country they love over the crown that rules them.

1664846281228.png

Consider.

The Biden regime that currently rules us has allowed 3 million migrants to invade our country in two years. These illegals continue to break our laws and cross our border at a rate of 250,000 a month.

Among them are terrorists, robbers, rapists, murderers, cartelists and child molesters. The Biden regime has abdicated its duty to halt the invasion that is changing the ethnic, racial, religious, social and political character and composition of our American family without the consent of the American people, into whose national home these intruders are breaking with impunity.

President Joe Biden is assuring that the future of the nation will be determined by millions of people who have in common only that they broke our laws to get into our country. Vice President Kamala Harris smugly dismisses demands to address the crisis by saying America’s southern border is “secure.”

With this invasion has come a flood of the narcotic fentanyl, which last year took the lives of 100,000 Americans, a number equal to all the U.S. war dead in years of fighting in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Under the Biden party’s policy of softness on crime and indulgence of the criminal class, assaults, robberies, carjackings and “mass shootings,” where four victims are killed or wounded in each episode, have surged in U.S. cities.

With America’s currency and economy in his custody, Biden has, in 18 months, run up inflation, that cancer of America’s currency, to 8%, run up the national debt to where it far exceeds the gross national product, and crashed the stock market, wiping out trillions in wealth.

“The pandemic is over,” Biden told “60 Minutes” in September, a month when more than 400 Americans were dying of COVID-19 every day, a death rate higher than World War II and equal to the bloodiest war in U.S. history, the Civil War of 1861-1865.

The custodians of “our democracy” are failing in the most fundamental of duties of any political system — to protect and defend the people. No failed regime can justify its permanence by claiming some inherent superiority.

^^^^
Comment:
The Federalist Papers, Federalist No. 10 (attributed to James Madison)

"...The inference to which we are brought, is, that the causes of faction cannot be removed; and that relief is only to be sought in the means of controling its effects."

"If a faction consists of less than a majority, relief is supplied by the republican principle, which enables the majority to defeat its sinister views by regular vote: It may clog the administration, it may convulse the society; but it will be unable to execute and mask its violence under the forms of the Constitution. When a majority is included in a faction, the form of popular government on the other hand enables it to sacrifice to its ruling passion or interest, both the public good and the rights of other citizens. To secure the public good, and private rights, against the danger of such a faction, and at the same time to preserve the spirit and the forms of popular government, is then the great object to which our enquiries are directed..."

"...From this view of the subject, it may be concluded, that a pure Democracy, by which I mean, a Society, consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the Government in person, can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will, in almost every case, be felt by a majority of the whole; a communication and concert results from the form of Government itself; and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party, or an obnoxious individual. Hence it is, that such Democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security, or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives, as they have been violent in their deaths...."

"A Republic, by which I mean a Government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect, and promises the cure for which we are seeking. Let us examine the points in which it varies from pure Democracy, and we shall comprehend both the nature of the cure, and the efficacy which it must derive from the Union."

"...The two great points of difference between a Democracy and a Republic are, first, the delegation of the Government, in the latter, to a small number of citizens elected by the rest; secondly, the greater number of citizens, and greater spheres of country over which the latter may be extended."

"...By enlarging too much the number of electors, you render the representative too little acquainted with all their local circumstances and less interests; as by reducing it too much, you render him unduly attached to these, and too little fit to comprehend and pursue great and national objects. The Federal Constitution forms a happy combination in this respect; the great and aggregate interests being referred to the national, the local and particular, to the state legislatures."

"The other point of difference is, the greater number of citizens and extent to territory which may be brought within the compass of Republican, than of Democratic Government; and it is this circumstance principally which renders factious combinations less to be dreaded in the former, than in the latter."

". ... Extend the sphere, and you take in a greater variety of parties and interests; you make it less probable that a majority of the whole will have a common motive to invade the rights of other citizens; or if such a common motive exists, it will be more difficult for all who feel it to discover their own strength, and to act in unison with each other...."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Germany)

Hamburg, Germany, Freedom Rally, Anti Covid BS, Anti Govt Lies!! Rise up!! .39 min

HAMBURG, GERMANY, FREEDOM RALLY, ANTI COVID BS, ANTI GOVT LIES!! RISE UP!!​

^^^^^
50,000+ protest Iran's bloodthirsty regime — will Trudeau do anything? 9:28 min

50,000+ PROTEST IRAN'S BLOODTHIRSTY REGIME — WILL TRUDEAU DO ANYTHING?​

In the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death, demonstrations have spread to all of Iran’s 31 provinces and indeed to cities around the world. Millions of people are making it known they are sick and tired of Iran’s theocratic government, one that is equal parts dictatorial and misogynistic. Over 50,000 people, mostly Iranian Canadians protested in Richmond Hill against the mullahs in Iran.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

OPEC Is Taking On The Fed... And Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel It Can Find

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 06:23 PM

Earlier today, Rabobank's Michael Every was the latest to try his hand in defining the conflict that - according to Zoltan Pozsar- has defined not only 2022 but will define the collapse of the dollar and the birth of the Bretton Woods 3 regime, when the geopolitical strategist discussed Putin's "vitriolic speech" on Friday in which, according to Every, "as Russia rails against “paper dollars and euros” and extolls the strength of commodities, can the West slash rates or do endless QE to bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world?"

While Every disagrees with Zoltan on whether the dollar will fall and whether a new Bretton Woods regime will emerge, the two are in agreement that the only response the west has to the commodity shortage created by the Russia-China-Africa-LatAm axis would be either to cause a global dollar funding squeeze (by hiking rates) which however has an unpleasant habit of crushing "friendly" allies such as the BOJ and BOE, or by flooding the world with fiat in order to - as Every put it - "bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world."

But it's not just the anti-western axis that is taking on the Fed: according to Goldman Sachs, so is the world's most important cartel (where Russia is also a critical voice): OPEC+.

In a note published by Goldman's Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie and the commodities team (available to pro subs in the usual place) titled "OPEC Takes on the Fed", the Goldman strategists recap the latest developments that helped propel oil sharply higher today, namely the reports that in its first in-person meeting in Vienna this Wednesday, the cartel may cut oil output by as much as 1.5 mmb/d...

Reports suggest that OPEC+ is considering a production cut at its meeting on Wednesday, October 5, potentially larger than 1 mb/d. While such a cut would occur amid one of the tightest markets in recorded history, and ahead of a potential decline in Russian exports later this year, such a decision could be justified by the recent large decline in prices, down 40% since their June peak, with mounting global growth concerns.

And while the recent collapse in investor participation, which has driven liquidity and prices lower, is also a likely strong catalyst for such a cut - as it would increase the carry in oil and start to claw back investors who have instead turned to USD cash allocation following the aggressive Fed hikes - what Goldman is effectively saying is that by OPEC is taking the fight back to the Fed, which by hiking and pushing the dollar to record highs sent the price of oil to new 2022 lows. Well, just as the Fed can limit the supply of dollar bills, whether physical or electronic, so OPEC can throttle and cut the all too physical supply of oil in retaliation.

But how exactly does OPEC plan on challenging the attractive yield on the US dollar? Simple: as Goldman writes, "an OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%."

As such, an OPEC vut - which Goldman has not assumed in its latest published bullish forecasts - would reinforce the bank's bullish price view while significantly limiting the downside to prices should economic growth disappoint even relative to the bank's modest global (ex China) 1% real GDP growth assumption for next year. As a result, Goldman - which has laid out the clash between OPEC and the Fed - reiterates both its bullish oil view as well as its preference for long crude timespread positions into year-end. In other words, at least in Goldman's view, OPEC will fight the Fed, and win.

While there is much more in the full note, below we excerpt the key highlights from the Goldman note:

Historically, OPEC has often cut production in the face of weakening demand, yet it has never implemented a cut in such a tight market, with inventories at historically low levels, record strong seasonal crude timespreads and with demand remaining resilient despite the macro headwinds.



While inventory dynamics have loosened in recent months (Exhibit 1), a portion of these builds (100mb+ by our estimates) are required due to the redirection of trade flows under embargo constraints. Adjusted for oil on water, we estimate that the global oil market has instead remained in a seasonally adjusted (2017-19 av.) deficit, which is expected to seasonally and cyclically tighten in the coming months. Very large and unsustainable draws in China have also exacerbated the ex-China surplus. Looking forward, we expect Russian production to decline into year-end with in turn demand expected to be supported by natural gas to oil switching in Europe and Asia.



Beyond the decline in prices, we believe this cut can help remedy the large exodus of oil investors that has left prices under-performing both fundamentals and other cyclical asset classes, as we discussed in our latest oil update. Such an argument can be traced back to our past work our Commodities as an Asset Class. Equity and debt holders of energy companies get compensated for providing capital from which companies profitably produce via dividends and share price appreciation. A commodity investor has no such function, investing in a futures market which is a zero-sum game, simply acting as the counterpart to an offsetting future position. Key however is the liquidity that is provided by this investor position, typically helping offset that of a producer, willing to sell his future production at a discount given the corporate benefits of reducing earnings volatility.

While such hedging flows have slowed materially this year, the investor exodus has been even larger owing to the surge in price volatility, exacerbating backwardation - and hence the compensation for long investors - in energy futures.

An OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%. This would make such an allocation increasingly compelling relative to other forms of carry, with, unlike most FX crosses today, supportive fundamentals rooted in exceptionally low inventories. It would further increase the opportunity cost of being short oil futures: given the positive carry, the 12-mo breakeven price on front-month rolling short positioning is already $67/bbl. Similarly, high volatility and the outsized impact of producer hedging on deferred prices have combined to increase the cost of puts, with a Dec-23 ATM put position requiring a fall in that contract's value to $61/bbl to become profitable at expiration.

Ultimately, the ability for OPEC to conduct such a large cut is rooted in the lack of any supply elasticity, with shale activity showing signs of slowing, no spare capacity outside of GCC producers and with Russia's production about to decline (leading it to support this time around a large cut by other producers). This is ultimately a return to the Old Oil Order, where core-OPEC acts under the rational behavior of a dominant producer with pricing power. In that sense, while exceptional, this cut is also logical as it maximizes the group's revenues today with minimal sacrifice of future profits.

While we take no explicit assumption on the meeting outcome for now, given our already bullish forecasts, we highlight three headline scenarios with cuts of 0.5, 1, and 1.5 mb/d respectively - and assess what they imply for prices and timespreads. Due to widespread capacity limits within OPEC+, a headline ("paper") cut is likely to overstate significantly the effective ("physical") curtailment of production. We show in Exhibit 4, across these three scenarios, that the effective cut is likely to be only c.50% of the headline quota figures compared to our Nov-22 supply expectations, and closer to c.2/3 of the headline when translated into balances through Dec-23 as we had assumed gradually higher production next year.



As we discussed in our latest oil note, we believe the market is oscillating between its historical pricing framework (based on inventories and convenience yields) and a scarcity pricing regime (predicated on demand destruction as the only balancing mechanism). In the case of a 1 mb/d headline cut, the former regime would lead us to expect a c.$13/bbl positive impact on Brent prices over 12 months, albeit mostly front-loaded, while the latter regime suggests a distinct possibility of a c.$20/bbl spike higher when inventories deplete again and demand destruction remains the balancing mechanism of last resort.

In Exhibit 5, we consider the effect of these potential cuts assuming prices remain near current levels (consistent with our 'Pre-price' balance published here). In this scenario, these OPEC+ cuts would tighten inventories to historically unparalleled lows; an unsustainable outcome in our view but one that would initially offer historically elevated roll returns of 25-40% for rolling the prompt Brent contract (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7) even at $85/bbl price levels.

As a result, we reiterate both our bullish oil view as well as our preference into year-end front long crude timespread positions.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Glenn Greenwald: "The consensus in Washington is that we are closer to the use of nuclear weapons than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis." 3:48 min

Glenn Greenwald: "The consensus in Washington is that we are closer to the use of nuclear weapons than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis."​

The Post Millennial Clips Published October 3, 2022

Glenn Greenwald: "The consensus in Washington is that we are closer to the use of nuclear weapons than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis ... And over what? Over who governs and rules not even Ukraine, but the Donbas."

^^^^^
Tucker Mocks NYC Nuclear PSA: Nuclear Blast in NY Will Take out Miami, Will Not Be Another Nagasaki 2:16 min

Tucker Mocks NYC Nuclear PSA: Nuclear Blast in NY Will Take out Miami, Will Not Be Another Nagasaki​

Red Voice Media Published October 3, 2022

“The overwhelming majority of Americans will be dead. And those who survive will starve to death because all agriculture will be destroyed along with billions of people around the planet.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Oh SH*T they think Putin is bluffing and they’re pushing nuclear war. | Redacted with Clayton Morris 2:30:47 min starts at 30:43 min

Oh SH*T they think Putin is bluffing and they’re pushing nuclear war. | Redacted with Clayton Morris​

Redacted News Published October 3, 2022

The west is pushing for a nuclear war with Russia. Vladimir Putin just told us exactly what he plans to do with the launch of the next phase of this war. Globalists are destroying the food supply on purpose as the WEF moves in on small farmers. Pfizer backs out of EU hearings. What are they hiding?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
EXPOSED: The Fed & big banks to test SOCIAL CREDIT SCORES? 15:34 min

EXPOSED: The Fed & big banks to test SOCIAL CREDIT SCORES?​

Glenn Beck Published October 3, 2022

With record-breaking inflation, sky-high interest rates, and an economic recession, the Federal Reserve hasn’t had a lot of 2022 wins. But now, the Fed is getting even WORSE. In this clip, Glenn announces the Fed’s new ‘pilot program’ to test social credit scores HERE in America, alongside some of our biggest banks. Listen to find out what exactly this ‘pilot program’ entails and which banks are involved…
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

46 Trillion Dollars in Financial Wealth Has Already Been Lost During the Great Global Market Crash of 2022

by Michael Snyder October 3, 2022 in Opinions

Money
In less than one year, 46 trillion dollars in financial wealth has been wiped out.

If that isn’t a “crash”, how would you define one? Since last November, stocks and bonds have been plunging all over the globe. When there is a good day like we saw on Monday, sometimes that can fool us into thinking that everything is going to be okay. But in order to understand what is really going on we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And when we look at the bigger picture, it becomes exceedingly clear that we are in the midst of a historic worldwide market crash. According to Bank of America, a whopping 46.1 trillion dollars in financial wealth has already been wiped out since last November…

It’s been a tough year for investors, with global stock and bond markets erasing $46.1 trillion in market value since November 2021, according to Bank of America.

The massive drawdown has led to forced liquidations on Wall Street, the bank’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note, highlighting the recent break below 2018 support in the NYSE Composite Index.

When I first came across that number I could hardly believe it.

But it is accurate.

Stocks have been falling and falling and falling, and Bank of America is warning that this is one of the worst global bond market crashes that we have ever seen…

Analysts at BofA liken it to going “Cold Turkey” and blame it for causing the third “Great Bond Bear Market.”

They calculate the 20% plus losses suffered by government debt investors over the last year are now a par with the post World War I and II years of 1920 and 1949, and the Great Depression rout of 1931.

The combined collapse in global stock and bond markets means global market capitalisation has been slashed by over $46 trillion.

That is an amount of money that is difficult to comprehend.

The total value of all goods and services produced in the United States last year was approximately 23 trillion dollars.

So we are talking about an amount of money that is roughly twice as large as our GDP for an entire year.

When the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world took the punch bowl away, it was obvious that something like this would happen.

Central bank intervention pushed global financial markets to absolutely absurd levels, and there was no way that they could remain there once the artificial support was removed.

Here in the United States, all of the major stock indexes have fallen for three quarters in a row, and tech stocks have been leading the way down…

The S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at 3,586, down 25.6% from its intraday high on January 3, and where it had first been in November 2020.

The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, is down 31.8% from its high on November 5, having thereby maintained its function as early warning signal.

The Nasdaq closed at 10,576, down 34.8% from its intraday high on November 22, the very day Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella dumped 50.2% of his Microsoft stock in a bunch of frenzied trades, totaling $285 million. On the list of best-timed insider trades ever, he must be at the very top. Since then, Microsoft shares have plunged 33.4%, to $232.90, the lowest closing price since March 2021.

As I discussed a few days ago, the wealthiest tech tycoons have collectively lost 315 billion dollars over the past year.

Ouch.

The Federal Reserve giveth and the Federal Reserve taketh away.

The same thing is true for the housing market. Fed policies created the largest housing bubble in our history, but now that bubble is bursting.

In fact, it is being reported that we just witnessed “the largest single-month price declines” since the last financial crisis…

… today Black Knight confirmed that the US housing market has turned decidedly ugly with the two biggest monthly declines since the global financial crisis.

According to a Monday report from mortgage-data provider, median home prices fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier, following a 1.05% drop in July.

The two periods marked the largest monthly declines since January 2009. In fact, at the current pace of declines, we may soon see a record drop in home prices, surpassing the largest historical slide hit during the global financial crisis.

The report noted that July and August 2022 mark the largest single-month price declines seen since January 2009 and rank among the eight largest on record.

If the Federal Reserve does not reduce rates, things will soon get really, really ugly for the housing market.

Unfortunately, the Fed is actually going to keep raising rates because Fed officials are scared to death of the raging inflation crisis that they originally helped to create.

Thanks to the Fed, grocery prices were up 13.5 percent in August…

We’ve seen the higher prices at the grocery store, and it looks like they won’t be coming down anytime soon.

New government data shows grocery prices climbed 13.5% in August from the year before. That’s the highest annual increase since March 1979.

Food producers say the surge is a result of paying higher prices for labor and packaging materials. They also point to extreme weather, disease and supply issues.

As long as we keep seeing numbers like that, the Fed is going to keep raising rates.

And the price of gasoline just hit another all-time record high in Los Angeles…

Gas prices hit a record high in Los Angeles County of $6.466 per gallon on Monday morning, soaring past the previous record set during the nationwide price surge this past spring.

If you think that is bad, just wait until California residents are paying 10 dollars a gallon for gasoline.

The cost of living has become incredibly oppressive, and one recent survey found that 73 percent of Americans believe that their incomes are “falling behind inflation”…

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day survey results on Ballotpedia also found that 73% of Americans say that over the past year, their income has been falling behind inflation. The survey’s sample size was 1,200 registered voters, and it was conducted online by pollster Scott Rasmussen on Sept. 15-17. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Until inflation is under control, the Fed is going to keep raising rates.

And inflation is not likely to be under control any time soon, because the vast majority of U.S. manufacturers are planning more price increases in 2023…

In a new Forbes/Xometry/John Zogby Strategies survey shared with Secrets about the impact of inflation and the continued supply chain crisis under President Biden, 87% of manufacturing CEOs said they planned to increase prices in 2023.

Many cited the ongoing supply chain crisis, problems getting materials from China, and sellers taking advantage of the economic mess to jack up prices.

“Our margins are under pressure as costs creep up throughout the supply-chain network,” one CEO told the poll conducted by Jeremy Zogby, the managing partner of John Zogby Strategies.

So the Federal Reserve will not be riding to the rescue of the financial markets this time around.

Fed officials are absolutely petrified of high inflation, and so rates will continue to go up.

And that means that this financial bubble will continue to implode. As Eric Peters has aptly noted, market crashes can take a long time to fully play out…

“It’s important to remember that the bursting of a bubble takes a long time to play out. It may feel fast and chaotic at various points in the process, but it isn’t really. Look at 2008. Everyone thinks of Lehman’s Bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, as the big catalyst for that crisis, but the S&P 500 had peaked the previous November. Bear Sterns failed on March 13th, 2008. From the Friday before Lehman’s bankruptcy to the end of that month, the S&P was only down 7%. The real weakness was in October with a local low in November.”

The final bottom wasn’t until March of the next year. “The bubble was bursting before Lehman Brothers.” That was just the large cathartic event that caught our attention, ignited our imagination. “And even after that it took months for the market to bottom. Markets don’t clear imbalances instantaneously. So we should be preparing ourselves for a marathon, not a sprint.”

We are still only in the very early chapters of this story.

As I have been relentlessly warning my readers, things are going to eventually get really, really bad.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks flooded the global financial system with money, and so now we are facing a horrific worldwide inflation crisis.

They are attempting to fix things by rapidly raising rates, but that is causing absolutely enormous problems for global financial markets.

This isn’t going to end well, and we have finally gotten to a point where this should be exceedingly obvious to everyone.

^^^^^
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4ZeTdOjLUk

.05 min

....and it's gone....
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Supermarkets Limiting Discounts Amid Soaring Food Inflation​

By Naveen Athrappully
October 3, 2022 Updated: October 3, 2022

While food prices remain elevated and customers look for cheaper deals, supermarkets have begun to limit the discounts they provide and are running fewer promotions.

In the third quarter, food and beverage products were sold with a 20.6 percent price reduction on average, which is less than the 25.7 percent discount during 2019, a Wall Street Journal report said, citing data from research firm Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Except for meat, promotional levels for all grocery categories are down when compared to 2019.

The rate of 12-month food inflation rose by 11.4 percent in August, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is up from 3.8 percent in January 2021, when Joe Biden assumed the presidency.

Compared to a year ago, August 2022 prices for white bread in U.S. cities were up by 19.7 percent per pound, ground beef up by 10.5 percent, whole chicken up by 27.6 percent, and a dozen eggs up by 82.3 percent.

Kosta Drosos, general manager of Fresh Market Place in Chicago, Illinois, said to The Wall Street Journal that his store has not run any discounts on milk products for almost five months. The special sales held by the store tend to be for items other than staples. And even these promotions tend to be small.

Though Fresh Market is running promotions on some proven sellers, the store is bearing losses on such campaigns. “It’s hard to run anything on promo,” he said.

Kraft Heinz, the third-largest food and beverage company in North America, is offering discounts at a lower level than in 2019, around the time the pandemic began.

Lower Sales, Changing Shopping Behavior​

In response to high food inflation, low-income shoppers are scaling back on their food purchases, according to a press release by IRI on Sept. 12. This demographic was responsible for much of the food and beverage sales growth in 2021. High food inflation is also driving down sales at stores.

“Overall, retail food and beverage unit sales declined 4.5 percent compared to a year ago, and volume sales declined 4.0 percent. The most significant drop-offs in volume are in categories where prices have risen dramatically, including frozen dinners/entrees, cookies, and coffee,” noted IRI in the release.

Customers were also found to be bargain hunting more, with trips to food and beverage stores rising by 3.5 percent on an annual basis for the week ended Aug. 21. Quick trips to stores were up by 6.7 percent.

According to a report by consumer research platform Attest, more than 50 percent of American consumers are reducing spending on groceries by selecting cheaper brands, while 46.7 percent are strictly sticking to their budgets.

More than 40 percent are buying less food, 46.1 percent have switched to buying cheaper foods, and 33.4 percent are now visiting cheaper stores.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Federal Reserve Goes Authoritarian, Set to Force Banks to Adopt ‘Social Score’ System for Customers Similar to Communist China​

by JD Heyes
October 3, 2022
https://i0.wp.com/basedunderground.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Social-Credit-Score.jpg?fit=1000,500&ssl=1

Our governing systems continue their hard-left, anti-freedom, Marxist shift, which is leading to the development of a parallel system that conservatives are flocking to.

For decades, the federal government — at every level — has been infiltrated by left-wing ideologues who are authoritarian by their very nature, and now the Federal Reserve is joining the fray.

As reported by investigative journalist Jordan Schachtel on his Substack, the Fed “has taken a major step in the direction of facilitating an ESG compliant monetary network that effectively acts as a parallel system to that of the Chinese Communist Party’s infamous social credit scoring system.”

ESG — which stands for Environment, Social, and Governance in investing — “refers to a set of standards for a company’s behavior used by socially conscious investors to screen potential investments,” according to Investopedia. What that means in practice, of course, is that regardless of the potential for earning profits for shareholders, which banks and corporations are beholden by law to always strive for, these institutions instead only invest in “politically correct” industries and sectors. No fossil fuels, for instance, as oil and gas are so early 2000s; no big tobacco; and nothing that has anything to do with Israel, just to name a few (because the hard left is comprised of true bigots and racists).

“Six of the nation’s largest banks will participate in a pilot climate scenario analysis exercise designed to enhance the ability of supervisors and firms to measure and manage climate-related financial risks,” the Fed noted in a statement last week. “Scenario analysis—in which the resilience of financial institutions is assessed under different hypothetical climate scenarios—is an emerging tool to assess climate-related financial risks, and there will be no capital or supervisory implications from the pilot.”

In short, Schachtel said, the Federal Reserve “is working with the big banks to monitor their ability to comply with the ruling class’s preferred enviro statist technocratic tyranny.”

He goes on to say that the unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats at the Fed who are responsible for this new exercise claim it is only “exploratory in nature and does not have capital consequences.” The statement from the nation’s money printer also said that the “scenario analysis can assist firms and supervisors in understanding how climate-related financial risks may manifest and differ from historical experience.”

Then, why bother with this exercise at all? What’s the real purpose behind it? As Schachtel explains, there is always a statist purpose behind everything the American deep state does:

The Fed is clearly leaning in to the climate hoax narrative, or the pseudoscientific idea that humans are catastrophically impacting the climate, but not because they somehow care about the environment. The climate narrative is the chief rhetorical facilitator for the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) movement.

ESG acts as a trojan horse for the continuing centralization of the American financial system. ESG finance, popularized by hyper political asset management behemoths like BlackRock and Vanguard, acts to prevent outsiders from challenging the regime-connected insiders on Wall Street and in Washington, under the guise of acting to manifest a healthier planet.


In short, institutions that are all-in for ESG essentially commit themselves to further attacking and eroding our founding free-market principles through deception, instead preferring Chinese communist-style “stakeholder capitalism” that empowers a small group of uber-elites and technocrats to make important decisions and broad determinations for all of society writ large.

Schachtel goes on to point out that he isn’t surprised that the mainstream media is cheering on the Fed’s tyrannical plan. The New York Times, the ringleader for the statist media, reported “that it often lagged behind its global peers when it comes to talking about and coming up with a plan for policing risks related to climate change.”

Note that the Times’ deferential position is that the U.S. should behave like all other nations, running in lockstep with them, policywise, not doing what is best for Americans.

No wonder these people hate Donald Trump so much – he literally opposed every authoritarian tendency they have.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Australia)

They’re Coming for Your Food: New South Wales Government Expedites mRNA Vaccine for Foot-and-Mouth and Lumpy Skin Disease in Livestock​

By Jim Hoft
Published October 3, 2022 at 7:45am

The government of New South Wales said on Wednesday that it had requested the American biotechnology company Tiba Biotech to speed up the development of the first mRNA vaccines for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and lumpy skin disease.

“The NSW Nationals in Government are taking the threat of FMD and Lumpy Skin Disease extremely seriously, and this milestone is another step forward in preparing for a potential outbreak,” said Paul Toole, Deputy Premier and Minister for Regional NSW.

NSW hopes to produce a world-first synthetic vaccine for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and lumpy skin disease by August 2023 with a $6 million government grant.

“I have now written to vaccine manufacturers to take up my challenge to develop both vaccines ready for use and manufacture in NSW by August 1 next year,” Toole said.

“COVID-19 demonstrated to us that all possible avenues in developing vaccines must be explored and we will leave no stone unturned.”

The partnership with Tiba Biotech, according to Agriculture Minister Dugald Saunders, provides New South Wales with an alternative strategy for creating mRNA vaccines against foot-and-mouth disease and lumpy skin disease.

“It is critical that we develop mRNA vaccines for FMD and Lumpy Skin as quickly as possible to protect our State’s livestock sector,” Mr. Saunders said.

“mRNA vaccines are cheaper and quicker to produce, highly effective and very safe,” he claimed.

“Because they are fully synthetic and do not require any animal or microbial products, they do not carry with them the same risks as traditionally derived vaccines.”

Tiba co-founder Peter McGrath said, “Our next generation RNA technology is able to safely and efficiently deliver vaccines for both human and animal health needs and has demonstrated more practical storage requirements than existing RNA technologies.”

The timing raises a lot of questions for some people as the Australia-UK free trade agreement (FTA) will go into effect this year, allowing tariff-free entry to increasing Australian meat volumes into the UK over the next decade.

They’re now coming for your food.

It can be recalled that researchers at the University of California were awarded a $500,000 grant from the National Science Foundation to develop technology that infuses experimental mRNA Covid-19 vaccines into spinach, lettuce, and other edible plants, as reported by The Gateway Pundit last year.

The team of nanobiotechnology experts is currently working on successfully delivering DNA containing mRNA BioNTech technology into chloroplasts, the part of the plants that instruct its cells’ DNA to replicate the vaccine material.

The researchers are tasked with demonstrating that genetically modified plants can produce enough mRNA to replace Covid jabs and infuse the plants with the right dosage required to eat to replace vaccines.

Experimental mRNA vaccines will be edible, Juan Pablo Giraldo, an associate professor in UCR’s Department of Botany and Plant Sciences who is leading the research explained in a press release published by the university on Sept. 16.

“Ideally, a single plant would produce enough mRNA to vaccinate a single person,” Giraldo said. “We are testing this approach with spinach and lettuce and have long-term goals of people growing it in their own gardens.”

Millions of people who have refused to get an experimental mRNA vaccine may soon be forced to consume the gene therapy in their food.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(South Africa)

South Africans Describe Widespread Leftist Corruption, Warn of What’s Coming​

By Ben Wetmore
Published October 3, 2022 at 4:45pm

Jaco Kleynhans is a conservative South African activist with a group named “Solidarity” which seeks to help citizens navigate the bureaucracy of the country and help meet their many needs. The organization believes in Christian self-reliance. The organization is focused on helping a wide variety of South African citizens of all races and creeds.

Jaco Kleynhans, involved in the “Solidarity” group in South Africa
The group exists because the government of South Africa, led and run by militant left-wing zealots, is mismanaging the country to such an extent that it is causing an ongoing massive social crisis. Criticizing and identifying these problems, however, is considered politically incorrect.

Kleynhans also gave an interview with Shane Trejo at Big League Politics while touring the United States to get support and make allies as they try to serve South Africans with emergency shelter, food to feed the hungry, work training programs, and even education, schools, and colleges as state-run institutions falter and collapse.

SOUTH AFRICAN CONSERVATIVES FORCED TO BUILD PARALLEL INSTITUTIONS BECAUSE STATE IS COLLAPSING

“We exist because the South African state is falling apart, and people are left without basic services,” Kleynhans said. “Things aren’t collapsing because of anything other than politics, and it hurts people of all races, our country is run by left-wing zealots and their policies are divisive and destructive. I hope America can recover from its left-wing insanities but America seems to be on the track to experience what we are going through.”

In my travels in America I run into people who seem to think that things are about to return to normal. People naively think that when left-wing zealots take power, that at some point they will be forced by economics or politics or reality to submit to reality again and I am here to say that is not your future. In South Africa we have been waiting decades for things to return to normal, and let me tell you that when your country is taken over by left-wing zealots, things will only get worse and worse.”

“We are facing record illegal immigration and many of them are black Muslims. I fear what our Marxian elites are doing is setting up a future conflict between our country’s black Christians and black Muslims. As long as we have left-wing control, we will be divided by class or race or religion and pitted against each other to preserve left-wing political power.”

NATION HAS DAILY MANAGED POWER SHUT-OFFS

Every morning citizens in South Africa get an alert about when their power is about to go out for the day. An app provides a daily timetable for when they should expect blackouts, which are described in governmental-euphemisms as “load-shedding.”

The app works better than our power grid,” Jaco explains. “Imagine trying to operate a factory with power that comes on and off, this is what businesses in our country have to deal with. The country is busy promoting solar plants, and while the country gets 300 days of sunshine every year, it is still wildly insufficient to meet the country’s needs.”

Screen-Shot-2022-09-29-at-6.22.29-PM.jpg

The South African app that tells citizens when to expect the power to be out that day, broken out by hour.

THERE IS CHRONIC LEFT-WING ENERGY HYPOCRISY

Last year Germany was pledging money to help South Africa “ditch coal.” This year Germany is in South Africa to buy coal to power its own power plants.

The left-wing German government official arrived in South Africa and gave a moralizing speech decrying racism and focused on South Africa’s history. But the official’s purpose was concealed from the public: to buy coal from coal-rich South Africa for mining, transport, and shipping to energy-hungry Germany. “We have a tremendous amount of coal, but our rail infrastructure has all fallen apart. Mining has always been our largest industry, usually platinum and gold, but now it’s coal destined for China and Germany. I can’t imagine how much money and energy we’re wasting because of this chronic left-wing hypocrisy about energy.”

ROADS ARE TERRIBLE BECAUSE RAIL IS NOT PROPERLY MAINTAINED

The nation’s infrastructure is collapsing. 40% of the roads are at the “end of their design life.” The nation’s rail infrastructure is similarly in significant distress. The BBC quoted a foundation as saying the nation’s rail network was near “total collapse” from a variety of factors.

Politicians have blamed vandals and thieves for allegedly taking metal to sell for scrap.

Jaco explains that the roads are falling apart because the nation’s rail can’t serve the commercial sector of the country:

“You have to drive on the side of the roads because the potholes in most of the country are so huge. The freeways around the airports are excellently maintained for political reasons, but if you go off those roads at all you’ll see the disgrace that is our national road infrastructure. Part of the problem is that everything travels over the roads now, because our rail system has completely fallen apart.”

POLICE HIRE PRIVATE SECURITY TO PROTECT POLICE STATIONS

Crime has escalated to extreme levels in the country. Murders in the major cities are a nightly occurrence. Organized crime is booming, as is kidnapping and violent crime in general.

According to Bloomberg News quoting an international non-profit, “…the state is struggling to contain criminal activity

Rape in South Africa is 5 times as likely as in the U.S.; Violent crime in general is 7 times more likely than in the U.S.; the murder rate is 8 times higher than the U.S.

Private security officers outnumber both the South African police and military.

And according to Kleynhans, the South African police are so demoralized, underfunded, and constricted in what they can legally do, that they are now hiring private security firms to protect the police stations at night.

cops-scared.jpeg


“If they didn’t hire private police, they too would be at risk from what happens in South Africa at night.”

FARMER MURDERS ARE POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED

Farmer murders are being coordinated and planned to get around at-home security. It is probably militants from the ANC’s paramilitary wing that are seeking to continue a campaign of racial violence. The ANC’s armed wing was claimed to have been disbanded in 1993, but Kleynhans claims it is still active.

Being a South African farmer is more dangerous than being a security worker in Iraq,” Kleynhans says. Farmer murders are so common in the country that they’re not newsworthy anymore, and Kleynhans says he and his group struggles to raise awareness of the ongoing violence and genocide.

The murders are common and exceptionally brutal. The murderers are clearly making a political statement not just with their lethal intent, but also in the methods employed.

Kleynhans described one recent murder where the husband and wife were tortured for hours before the assailants finally killed the husband and bludgeoned the wife.

South Africa’s political courts have recently said that the song “Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer” is not hate speech. Kleynhans points out a recent book, called “Kill the Boer” highlights the political and government connection to the brutal farmer murders.

NATION’S POSTAL SYSTEM HAS COLLAPSED

You can’t send anything through the mail,” Kleynhans says. “Everything is by private courier. I don’t bother checking my mailbox because nothing arrives. It will be six months without any mail. Amazon won’t deliver by anything but private courier right now because it just won’t show up and the delivery costs are twice the price of a book. If you mailed a letter through the post office, if it even shows up, it will take six months, but it could just as easily be six months as never because the system is so unreliable.”

Even in the press disposed to politically protect the country from scrutiny, they begrudgingly admit that South African mail service has been steadily getting worse for years.

NATION’S MILITARY HAS COLLAPSED

The military has effectively collapsed and provides no national defense, or has the ability to assist in stopping border crimes. “There are only a few planes left but they can’t fly, and they have no one to service them,” Kleynhans says.

“There are three submarines, they all don’t work. There are no Naval boats or ships. We have a Navy base in Cape Town but no one knows what they really do there. There are no helicopters and no coast guard. If you get into trouble on a boat around the coast, you have to call a private firm, the Sea Rescue Institute, to come get you. The coast guard will let you drown.”

Officially a lack of funding for ‘refits’ is the public excuse given for why the South African Navy is largely off the water.

POLITICALLY-WELL-CONNECTED GET STATE BENEFITS, OTHERS SUFFER

According to Kleynhans, the Marxist economic political game of creating classes and pitting those classes into conflict with one another to preserve political power has been on display in South Africa.

One class are the working class who are paying any taxes, who number about 5 million. Many of these are foreigners such as Asians and professionals from India.

Another class are those 22 million people on state assistance, what might be called “welfare” in America but also includes a wide variety of housing, work, and other official state support. To get access to these services, again according to Kleynhans, you either have to know someone in the government already or have familial relations that will assist you with the cumbersome paperwork. In addition, services are conditioned on in-person interviews that these officials can easily steer to the result they desire. Kleynhans claims that, for example, even though there are a large number of unemployed and needy whites in South Africa, that they are almost never found in state housing because the interview and application process is unofficially reserved for one group of African blacks.

The remaining people are in the unemployed and underemployed category and who receive no state assistance. These people, some who are immigrants and laborers, but many are simply politically undesirable blacks, whites, and others, receive no state support and have difficulty finding work. These people make up half the country according to Kleynhans and are those most in need of services that they cannot receive from the government.

WORKERS MUST PAY FOR PRIVATE HEALTHCARE AND SUBSIDIZE FAILING PUBLIC HEALTHCARE

“There are two systems of healthcare in South Africa: one is public and no one would ever use it, and a private one that functions and is terribly expensive. Of course the government now wants to come in and seize the private system and nationalize it into the public system in order to ruin it and deny people any option to get medical treatment,” Kleynhans says.

“Our doctors often come from Cuba and other countries and are competent, but the public system has massive delays, red tape, and hidden costs. If you are a working person, the public system is not free and you have to pay a graduated scale against your income. So you end up having to pay high prices for horrible healthcare so you might as well pay a little more and get good healthcare from a private provider.”

Kleynhans says that monthly expenses for a family of four is $600 U.S., in addition to subsidizing state system. “No one in our economic middle class uses the public healthcare system, it has completely fallen apart.”

RAMPANT RACISM AND OPPRESSION OF RACIAL MINORITIES

Kleynhans says that a little-reported detail of South Africa is how oppressive the country is towards racial minorities, in this case minority black tribes such as the Khoisan people who were once called the “Bushmen” who are out of favor with the ruling blacks.

“The Khoisan have this saying that they were too black for apartheid South Africa, and now they’re not black enough for modern South Africa. They have had it bad under both regimes, they were not accepted and integrated in the past and now they are politically powerless, dispossessed, and seen as nothing more than a nuisance or problem by the ruling class of left-wing zealots. They worked with the Boer settlers when they first arrived and were always seen as a friendly group. The phrase that they use to dispossess the Khoisan is that all of Africa should be for black Africa. Even though the Khoisan have a several thousand year history in Africa, the politics say that South Africa should only cater to and represent those whose ancestry traces back to central Africa,” says Kleynhans.

“The exact phrase they use to justify oppressing the Khoisan is that ‘real Africans are black Africans‘ meaning that the Khoisan are not black enough,” says Kleynhans.

“What’s tragically ironic is that the Khoisan are the only ones even arguably native to this land, tracing back 1500-2000 years. The white settlers arrived 350 years ago. The modern blacks have only been here for 100 years or less, brought in largely to be cheap labor. But now the Khoisan are not politically beneficial to the government and they are not organized, they don’t have a political party or any meaningful representation and they are split into small communities. They are divided among themselves between many different tribes. Only 1000 people or so who can even speak their language anymore.

They are going to go extinct under left-wing black rule, a situation that would never have been allowed to happen before.”

POLITICAL ‘TRUTH’ ALWAYS PREVAILS OVER SCIENCE FACTS

Kleynhans told a story of a recent black professor in Johannesburg at the University of Witwatersrand, known as “Wits.” The professor was on the faculty for the education department and researched the state of all-black schools. What the professor found, his surprising conclusion, was that education was better for black children under apartheid than it is today.

“What the political elites determined was that this conclusion and this data were politically incorrect, so they shut it down,” Kleynhans said. “They didn’t bother asking whether anyone was proposing returning to apartheid or justifying apartheid, and of course no one was doing that. But in order to examine what was working for black kids back then, you have to admit facts, you have to submit to reality. This they were not willing to do. They made a political decision that something must not be true because it would not fit the political agenda. So as a result, the policies and programs that were working better for black kids back then will never be considered because it offends our politics. That’s modern South Africa in a nutshell: we are sacrificing our children of all races to politics because we lack the courage to speak the truth.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Monica De La Cruz: Illegal Immigration a ‘Gut Punch’ for Working Class Wages as the Rich Face ‘Virtually No Impact’

Republican Monica De La Cruz, running in Texas’s 15th congressional district, says illegal immigration is a “gut punch” to the wages of America’s working class while the nation’s wealthy see “virtually no impact” on their livelihoods.

During a press call last week, De La Cruz focused her attention on the massive downward economic pressure that decades of illegal immigration have on working and middle-class Americans looking for high-wage jobs, affordable housing, and social services that are not crowded.

“The last thing we need to be doing is driving down wages and that’s the first thing illegal immigration does,” De La Cruz said.

In 2020, a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report admitted that “immigration has exerted downward pressure on the wages of relatively low-skilled workers who are already in the country, regardless of their birthplace.”

The report came as years of extensive research by economists like George Borjas and analyst Steven Camarota reveals that current immigration levels burden United States taxpayers and America’s working and middle class while redistributing about $500 billion in wealth every year to corporate special interests and newly arrived immigrants.

Similar research shows how Americans’ wages are crushed by high immigration levels.

“In manual labor … wages can drop by $800 to $1,500 a year,” De La Cruz said. “I don’t know any single family that can stand losing $1,500 a year. That could be two to three months of baby formula or eight months of gas. The downward pressure that illegal immigration has on wages is an economic fact and a reality.”

In De La Cruz’s south Texas district, the economic burden of illegal immigration can be a make-or-break moment for many Hispanic American families. Most American adults agree.

A survey from May found that about 73 percent of Americans believe their job prospects are cut as a result of mass immigration. Only 26 percent said illegal immigration does not pose a risk to the U.S. labor market.

“The average income for Hispanic families is $54,000 per year. Hispanics tend to have larger families which means more mouths to feed and less money to do that … this is a gut punch to American workers,” De La Cruz said.

“Illegal immigration also further limits public resources,” she continued. “South Texas has some of the worst access to healthcare in the state … how on Earth are we going to provide for the over four million illegal immigrants that have crossed under Biden when we can’t even take care of our own citizens?”

Illegal immigration, as De La Cruz noted, is also a class issue — one where working and middle-class American communities are forced to absorb nearly all the costs while the wealthiest tend to get even richer.

Following decades of mass immigration to the U.S., the top one percent of American income earners now own more wealth than the entire American middle class. The middle 60 percent of income earners, defined as the middle class, have seen their share of national wealth plummet to less than 27 percent — the smallest ever recorded for the income group.

“Illegal immigration has virtually no impact on the elites’ lives,” De La Cruz said. “Wall Street bankers don’t have to worry about a poor Central American undercutting their wages … they don’t live here and they do not speak for us.”

De La Cruz’s remarks come as Republican candidates in the midterm elections have largely avoided talk of the economic consequences for Americans as a result of mass immigration, where 2.2 million illegal aliens have entered the U.S. since President Joe Biden took office in addition to two million more who have entered on green cards and temporary work visas.

Instead, Republican candidates have turned their attention to more donor-friendly talking points about “chaos” at the U.S.-Mexico border and national security threats. The reluctance to discuss immigration in economic terms is mostly the result of big-dollar donor support for mass immigration.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its members, for instance, back doubling legal immigration to bring in a constant stream of cheaper foreign workers for companies to hire and amnesty for all 11 to 22 million illegal aliens living across the U.S.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Germans Panic-Buy Electric Heaters As Authorities Warn Of Winter Gas Shortage

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 11:00 PM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

German authorities have issued another dire warning about a possible shortage of natural gas over the winter, with fears that German households might be left in the cold, driving sales of electric heaters to soar in a spree of panic shopping.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk radio on Sept. 30 that the country is in an “extremely tense situation” when it comes to energy supply.

“If we don’t save, if households don’t reduce consumption, we still risk not having enough gas in the winter,” he said.

Europe’s biggest economy is struggling to cope with surging gas and electricity costs caused mostly by a collapse in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which Moscow has blamed on Western sanctions.

Germany’s network regulator Bundesnetzagentur, which would be responsible for gas rationing in case of a supply emergency, said in a statement on Sept. 29 that household consumption was too high to be sustainable.

Bundesnetzagentur chief Klaus Mueller called for “sustained austerity efforts,” saying that gas consumption by households and businesses in the prior week were “well above” consumption levels in prior years, calling the figures “sobering.”

“Without significant cutbacks in the private sector, too, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in winter,” he said in a statement, adding that cutbacks are needed even if temperatures continue to fall and even then there’s no guarantee of a “sure-fire success.”

Mueller said Germany will be able get through the winter under three conditions: the country has to import more gas; the gas supplies of neighboring countries must remain stable; and each individual must cut back on gas consumption, “even if it gets even colder toward winter.”

Electric Heater Sales Soar
Meanwhile, sales of electric heaters in Germany have soared amid gas-shortage fears as winter looms.

Sales of electric heaters in Germany, between January and August 2022, have jumped 76 percent compared to the year-ago period, according to market research company Growth from Knowledge (GfK) data provided to German news outlet Deutsche Welle.

It comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out a $194 billion “defensive shield” that includes a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel in a bid to protect businesses and households from the pain of soaring energy costs.

Under the plans, which are expected to run until spring 2024, the government will introduce an emergency price brake on gas, the details of which will be announced next month. The government also is scrapping a planned gas levy meant to help firms struggling with high spot market prices.

A temporary electricity price brake will subsidize basic consumption for consumers and small and medium-sized companies. Sales tax on gas will fall to 7 percent from 19 percent.

In his remarks to Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday, Habeck said Germany’s gas price brake will be limited to covering 80 percent of normal household usage in an effort to encourage consumers to save energy and avoid a shortage.

In a bid to help Germany make it through the winter, the European Commission, on Friday, approved a measure to compensate operators of five lignite-fired power plants to be on standby and ready to be activated in case of natural gas shortages.
 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment

UK Mortgage Repayments Poised To Soar To Financial Crisis Levels

MONDAY, OCT 03, 2022 - 11:45 PM

Last week, we quoted Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid who pointed out several striking facts: according to the FCA, some 26% of the total outstanding UK mortgages are variable rate and thus dependent on where the BoE’s bank rate is. It is currently 2.25% but markets are now pricing in a terminal rate above 6% which would be a huge shock if it got close to happening over the next 6-9 months as is priced in. While 74% of mortgages are fixed (mostly between 1-2%), half of these will need to be refinanced within the next 2 years, with half at a fixed rate beyond 2 years.

So, Reid calculated, 26% of mortgage payments are at risk of imminent increases, 37% at risk over the next two years if rates don’t rapidly fall, and 37% can ride out this storm for a few more years. The DB strategist concluded that "the UK housing market is in for a huge amount of pain ahead," unless the BOE were to somehow monetize all the upcoming debt issuance and sends rates back to zero.... which as we explained, is one of the real reasons why the BOE panicked and restarted QE.

Today, Bloomberg's Simon White picks up on this startling repricing, and writes the following:

The projected rise in UK interest rates after the recent fiscal announcement threatens to take total mortgage repayments back to GFC levels. But this increases the chance of implicit government support for the mortgage market, which should soon aid already underperforming UK homebuilders.

As cack-handedness goes, you can’t get a much better example than how the UK government announced a raft of new fiscal measures in its so-called mini-budget. Despite the fact several of the tax cuts were reversals of rises that had not taken place yet, a series of missteps and unforced errors caused the budget to trigger a wave of selling in UK assets, exacerbated by instabilities inherent to pension-funds’ asset-liability matching criteria.

The sharp rise in rates across the curve will soon pass through the economy. One of the biggest feed-through mechanisms will be from mortgages, outstanding balances of which total more than £1.6 trillion. To forecast the potential impact from the rise in rates, I projected what fixed and variable mortgage rates could rise to over the next two years, and calculated what the total mortgage-repayment cost would be versus household income.

As the chart below shows, the mortgage repayment/household income ratio is forecasted to rapidly rise to levels not seen since the Lehman crisis in 2008.

1664882091905.png

Back then, though, almost half of outstanding mortgages were on variable rates, compared to 15% now. This meant cutting rates had an immediate impact on reducing the repayment burden for households. Even if rates do not rise as high as currently projected, total repayments are likely to increase to levels problematic for an already-weakening economy.

Furthermore, when mortgage holders come to refinance, they may find they don’t meet affordability tests (rates have jumped to ~5%, but that means the bank will want to know if holders can meet repayments if rates went to e.g. 9%).

The risk of a wave of forced selling therefore suggests the government will have to intervene in the mortgage markets to ensure this does not happen (for instance by making affordability tests less onerous, or sanctioning the loan-maturity extension).

So optically, things look bad for UK housing, but it is often darkest before dawn. UK homebuilders - especially those more focused on London, which stands to benefit more from the fall in GBPUSD - are already depressed and underperforming, with much bad news priced in. This leaves them poised to surprise to the upside.

1664882047302.png
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

A Banking Crisis Looms

TUESDAY, OCT 04, 2022 - 02:00 AM
Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, on the brink of collapse, when the Bank of England (BOE) was forced to enact, de facto, a bailout of the pension funds of the United Kingdom.

On Sept. 28, around noon, the Bank of England stepped (back) into the gilt markets and started buying government bonds with longer maturities to stop the collapse in their value, which could have caused the financial system to become unhinged. Pension funds were faced with major margin calls, which threatened to cause a rapidly cascading run on their liabilities, as trust in their liquidity and solvency would have become questioned by a widening circle of investors and customers.

Effectively, the BOE stepped in to limit the vicious circle of margin calls faced by pension funds because of the crashing values of the gilts.

Without the BOE intervention, mass insolvencies of pension funds, with about $3 trillion worth of assets—and thus most likely other financial institutions—could have commenced on that afternoon. It’s obvious that if one of the major financial hubs of the world, the City of London, would face a financial panic, it would spread to the rest of the world in an instant.

It looks as though the global financial system was pulled from the brink of collapse, once again, by central bankers. However, this was only a temporary fix.

It’s now clear that an outright financial collapse threatens all Western economies, because if pension funds, often considered very dull investors because of their risk-averse investing profile, face a threat to their insolvency, it can happen to any other financial institution. I consider that the banking sector will be the next in line.

Banking is a business of trust. If the trust in a bank or in the unlimited support of authorities for the bank, disappears, a bank run commences.

One of the most prominent scholars of financial crises, Gary B. Gorton, defines a financial crisis in his book “Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming” as “an event where holders of short-term debt issued by financial intermediaries withdraw en masse or refuse to renew their loans.”

In common language, Gorton says that during financial crises, a large number of holders of banks’ financial liabilities, such as deposits, want to cash out. Hence the name: a bank run.

For example, during the Panic of 1819 in the United States, people queued outside banks in long lines to change their new financial innovations, bank notes, to metallic currency. The Panic of 1819 helped to create the first economic depression in the United States.

However, a bank run may not be visible, in the sense that other banks and financial institutions “run” on the liabilities of a bank. For example, during the crisis of 2007–2008, there was a run on sale and repurchase agreements (repo) market, market of commercial paper, and on prime broker balances. Most people didn’t notice these first stages of the panic, because financial firms ran on liabilities and assets of other financial firms.

The main point is that, as liabilities are withdrawn in whatever form, en masse, the bank eventually runs out of assets to pledge/sell to fulfill the withdrawal requests, and the bank fails.

Going forward, the biggest risk of a systemic bank run most likely lays in Europe.

European companies and households have been and continue to be decimated by ravaging inflation, fast-rising interest rates, and spiking energy prices. They are being hit on all sides, and this will, most likely, cause many of them to fail financially.

Banks are also currently being hit by heavy declines in the value of government bonds, which they use as collateral. These may easily lead to cascading losses on banks, possibly with a never-before-seen speed, size, and width.

I find it hard to imagine how these developments wouldn’t lead to a banking crisis, without massive intervention by governments and central banks, that is. And like I’ve been detailing, a banking crisis that begins in Europe, won’t stay there.

How do you prepare for it then?

A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that many banks, possibly all, will close their doors to customers, and issue withdrawal limits. Another characteristic is disruptions in the financial system, most notably on card payments, as a result of which the retail payments system may seize up altogether.

While I was in Greece, in the summer of 2015 with my ex-wife, the whole economy turned into a cash-based one basically over the weekend. The 2015 Greek banking crisis was caused by the European Central Bank, when it, totally irresponsibly and most likely driven by political motives, shut Greek banks from its emergency liquidity assistance.

Cash withdrawal limits were set, credit card machines “disappeared” or “broke down” in restaurants, shops, and more, and finally, cash stopped coming out from the ATMs. Capital controls were enacted, and the ability of ordinary Greeks to transfer money abroad became seriously hindered. We naturally had sufficient cash, which often happens, when one travels with a crisis researcher to a country threatened by a crisis.

The main point is (was), that during banking crises, you won’t have full access to your deposits in the bank. As a result, electronic payments such as bank cards may become useless. In the extreme case, your deposits could be used to recapitalize ailing banks in a process called “bail-in.”

Such laws were put in place after the 2008 crisis, and they were enacted for the first time to resolve the banking crisis in Cyprus in 2013.

Technically, every sum you have in the bank above the deposit insurance threshold, a limit which also may not be “carved in stone,” is threatened by the bail-ins in a banking crisis.

We warned already in March 2017 that the global financial system, which broke out during the 2008 financial crisis, has never really been healed. We noted that it and the global economy were kept standing merely by continuous central bank and government interventions and nearly unlimited provisions of credit. On Sept. 28, we got a final confirmation from the BOE that this truly is the case.

We are in deep, deep trouble.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

LNG Ship Charter Rates Explode As Europe Rejiggers Energy Supply Chain​

TUESDAY, OCT 04, 2022 - 03:55 AM

Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are soaring due to a shortage of vessels.

LNG shipping rates have been dramatically impacted by energy supply chain disruption due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The LNG shipping sector is booming even more as rates near record highs following the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline system last week.

Bloomberg said Europe is "to replace Russian pipeline flows with liquefied natural gas from suppliers including in the US and Nigeria." Rejiggering supply chains for the energy-stricken continent means increasing demand for LNG carriers to source gas further away.

Shell booked an LNG carrier for $400k per day, likely the most expensive ever for the Atlantic basin. The Indian firm GAIL also secured an LNG shipment for about $360k per day. Bloomberg explains more:
  • Shell Plc booked the Yiannis to load a US cargo at the end of October for delivery to Europe at a rate equivalent to $400,000 per day on a round-trip basis, said traders. The deal is likely the most expensive ever for the Atlantic basin, according to traders and brokers.
  • GAIL India Ltd. also booked the LNG Schneeweisschen to load a cargo in early November from the US at about $360,000 per day, said traders. The company, which recently sold an LNG shipment from its Cove Point export facility, chartered the vessel from a European utility company, they said.
Snag_1cf1406e.png
Source: Bloomberg

Last month, we pointed out that Western Sanctions Against Russia Spark Mayhem In Shipping As New Threat Emerges because Europe's scramble for LNG carriers to source LNG from abroad was soaking up all the supply of vessels. There are mounting concerns that the limited availability of LNG vessels could cause cargo disruptions.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

97.7 Million Birds Are Already Dead as the Worst Bird Flu Outbreak Ever Sweeps Across North America and Europe

by Michael Snyder October 4, 2022 in Opinions

Bird Flu
Did you know that we are in the middle of the worst bird flu outbreak ever recorded? Millions upon millions of birds have been dying, and most people don’t even realize that such a nightmarish pestilence has been absolutely devastating North America and Europe. But what people do know is that eggs, chicken and turkey just keep getting more expensive at the grocery store. In fact, supplies are starting to get so tight that some experts are now talking about the potential for “shortages” during the holiday season. Unfortunately, this epidemic isn’t going to go away any time soon. If it was going to go away, it would have done so during the warm summer months. Now the weather is starting to get colder again, and that means that it will be even easier for the bird flu to spread.

What we are witnessing in Europe right now is truly alarming. According to the official website of the European Food Safety Authority, so far 47.7 million birds have been culled by poultry facilities where cases of the bird flu have been confirmed…

The ongoing HPAI season has produced the largest epidemic seen so far in Europe, with a total of 2,467 outbreaks in poultry and 47.7 million birds culled in affected establishments. In addition, 187 detections were notified in captive birds and 3,573 HPAI events were recorded in wild birds. The geographical reach of this year’s epidemic is unprecedented, with reported cases ranging from the Svalbard islands in Norway to southern Portugal, and as far east as Ukraine, affecting 37 European countries in total.

Just think about that.

At a time when agricultural production is way down all over Europe, this pestilence has already wiped out almost 50 million chickens and turkeys.

This wasn’t supposed to happen. The bird flu outbreak in Europe was supposed to greatly subside once summer arrived, but this year that didn’t happen…

In past years, outbreaks of avian flu declined with warmer weather and the end of migration by wild birds in the autumn and winter.

But outbreaks have continued across the UK and elsewhere in Europe this summer leading to fears that highly pathogenic variants of avian flu are now endemic in wild birds, creating a risk of infection all year.

So what does this mean?

Has bird flu developed into a form that is not greatly affected by warmer temperatures?

The truth is that we just don’t know.

But what we do know is that bird flu is usually at the worst during the fall and winter…

Bird flu usually strikes during the autumn and winter months. It is transmitted by infected migrating wild birds’ faeces or direct contact with contaminated feed, clothing and equipment.

“As autumn migration begins and the number of wild birds wintering in Europe increases, they are likely at higher risk of HPAI infection than previous years due to the observed persistence of the virus in Europe,” Guilhem de Seze, a senior official at the EFSA, said in a statement on Monday.

So things in Europe are not likely to get better any time soon.

Instead, in all probability they will probably get even worse.

Meanwhile, the bird flu continues to sweep across North America as well. At this point, the total death toll on our side of the Atlantic Ocean has reached approximately 50 million…

In North America alone, an estimated 50 million birds have succumbed, which experts say is probably a vast undercount. And though government officials are primarily concerned about poultry farms, the epidemic has struck wild birds, too — from waterfowl to raptors and vultures.

If we add 47.7 million dead birds in Europe to 50 million dead birds in North America, that gives us a grand total of 97.7 million dead birds.

And the vast majority of those dead birds are chickens and turkeys.

This is truly catastrophic, and most people aren’t paying attention.

But whether people are paying attention or not, prices are just going to keep going higher at the grocery store…

The surge of the flu has led to the price of turkey hens rising 30% higher than last year and 80% higher than before the pandemic, and it appears unlikely that will change before the holidays. “There’s nothing appearing on the horizon to suggest anything new is going to surface to help ease the supply-side pain for Thanksgiving turkeys,” Russ Whitman, senior vice president at commodity researcher Urner Barry, told Bloomberg.

And the word “shortage” is increasingly being used to describe what we could be facing this upcoming holiday season…

A turkey shortage may impact what’s on the table this holiday season. Grocers and delis alike are running out of the meat, driving the price of poultry even higher amid inflation.

Why aren’t more people talking about this?

For a moment, try to think of how many things you eat regularly that contain chicken, turkey or eggs.

Now imagine what would happen if all of those products disappeared.

With each passing month, the bird flu continues to spread to more locations. Right now, southern California has become one of the latest hotspots…

After proliferating globally, a historic wave of avian flu has entered Southern California, where it is worrying farmers and bird lovers and could add to complications with supply chains and food prices.

Already, poultry operations have had to euthanize domestic flocks of chickens and turkeys, while thousands of wild birds have also died. Wildlife experts say they are seeing a wave of dying birds moving south — already as far as Irvine — as the fall migration sets in.

This is a slow-motion nightmare that is playing out right in front of our eyes.

But what would make this disaster far, far worse is if bird flu mutates into a form that can spread easily among humans.

Normally, it is quite difficult for a human to catch H5N1, but when it happens the death rate is extremely high…

But worldwide, between January 2003 and 31 March 2022, there have been 863 cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H5N1) virus reported from 18 countries. Of these 455 cases were fatal.

If a mutant form of H5N1 comes along that easily passes from person to person, the panic that would cause would make the COVID pandemic look like a Sunday picnic.

So let us hope that does not happen any time soon.

Unfortunately, I believe that we are living during a time when great pestilences will become increasingly common.

In secret labs all over the globe, mad scientists are monkeying around with some of the most deadly diseases that humanity has ever known.

It is way too easy for a “mistake” to happen, and as we have seen once a dangerous bug does get loose it can circulate around the planet in the blink of an eye.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Researchers Use GMO Mosquitoes to Vaccinate Humans in NIH-Funded Malaria Study​

The National Institutes of Health funded a malaria vaccine trial study that used genetically modified mosquitoes to “vaccinate” humans. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has close ties to the research.

Michael Nevradakis, Ph.D.
10/3/22

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded a malaria vaccine trial study that used genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes to “vaccinate” humans.

A team of researchers at the University of Washington conducted the study, which was published in the Science Translational Medicine journal.

The study involved 26 participants who received three to five “jabs” — or bites from a small box containing 200 GM mosquitoes — over a 30-day period.

Sanaria, a company funded in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), is closely connected to the research, and the researchers involved in the trial use a gene-editing technology heavily promoted by Bill Gates.

Genetically modified mosquitoes used as ‘flying syringes’

The trial used malaria-causing Plasmodium mosquitoes that were genetically modified to avoid causing sickness in humans to infect participants with a “minor” version of malaria — insufficient to cause severe illness, but enough to make the humans create antibodies.

Dr. Sean Murphy, lead author of the study, told NPR, “We use the mosquitoes like they’re 1,000 small flying syringes.”

Despite the publicity generated by this study, however, results appear to have been mixed.

Of the 14 trial participants exposed to malaria, seven contracted the disease. For the remaining seven, the protection conferred by the “vaccine” did not last more than a few months and eventually dissipated.

According to the study:

“Half of the individuals in each vaccine group did not develop detectable P. falciparum infection, and a subset of these individuals was subjected to a second [Controlled Human Malaria Infection] 6 months later and remained partially protected.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “infections caused by P. falciparum are the most likely to progress to severe, potentially fatal forms” of malaria.

Adverse reactions in trial participants reportedly were “what one would expect after getting bit by hundreds of mosquitoes and nothing more.”

For example, trial participant Carolina Reid told NPR her entire forearm “swelled and blistered.”

Despite the study’s mixed results, the researchers claimed the “results support further development of genetically attenuated sporozoites as potential malaria vaccines.”

The researchers suggested several reasons for using live mosquitoes rather than a vaccine that could be delivered via a syringe, including that the use of live insects made sense, as the P. falciparum parasite quickly matures inside the mosquito.

In addition, the process of developing a version of the parasite that could be delivered via a syringe was described as “costly and time consuming.”

Nevertheless, according to Murphy the study will not be used for the mass vaccination of humans. However, the researchers involved in the trial said they believe the approach they used can eventually result in the development of a “substantially more effective” malaria vaccine.

At present, only one malaria vaccine is in use. The RTS,S vaccine produced by GlaxoSmithKline was approved by the World Health Organization in October 2021, but reportedly has an efficacy rate of only 30-40%.

Dr. Kirsten Lyke, a vaccine researcher at the University of Maryland, described the use of a genetically modified live parasite as a vaccine as “a total game changer,” saying the team of researchers “went old school with this one.”

“All things old become new again,” Lyke told NPR.

Lyke, who was not involved in the GM mosquito malaria trial, led the Phase 1 trials for the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and also served as co-investigator for COVID-19 vaccine trials administered by Moderna and Novavax.

Stefan Kappe, a parasitologist at the University of Washington and the Seattle Children’s Research Institute — who was one of the authors of the study — said that the approach described by Lyke is already being worked on by the team, adding that the team believes “we can obviously do better.”

However, according to Kappe, “increasing production capability to scale up manufacturing will require investment.”

The research team said that the vaccine developed from this process will eventually be administered via syringes, in order to administer a “more accurate dosage.”

According to Lyke, the use of a slightly more mature version of the GM parasite used during this trial could better equip the human body to prepare an immune response.

Murphy added that his team’s approach utilizes a whole weakened parasite rather than one of the proteins the parasite produces, as with the RTS,S vaccine.

Gates-linked firm provided GM parasites used in trial

According to NPR, the University of Washington partnered with Sanaria, a “small company” that produces the modified parasites.

According to its website, Sanaria is “a biotechnology company developing vaccines protective against malaria,” and its “vaccines have proven highly protective against Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans.”

The company also said it developed “an innovative approach to malaria using Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (SPZ) as the platform technology for immunizing people against malaria infection.”

Two of Sanaria’s listed donors — PATH MVI and the Institute for OneWorld Health — are beneficiaries of funding from the BMGF.

PATH, which founded the Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI), describes itself as “an international nonprofit organization that drives transformative innovation to save lives and improve health,” working “with partners in private industry, government, and academia to develop malaria vaccines.”

PATH MVI said it advises and partners with “public institutions, businesses, grassroots groups, and investors to tackle the world’s toughest global health problems — which includes malaria, a notoriously complex parasite.”

As far back as 2008, when it received a $168 million grant, PATH MVI has received funding from the BMGF.

Aside from the BMGF, other PATH MVI donors include Chevron, the ExxonMobil Foundation, the USAID Malaria Vaccine Development Program and Open Philanthropy.

As Open Philanthropy — one of whose main funders is Dustin Moscovitz, co-founder of Facebook along with Mark Zuckerberg — funded a monkeypox tabletop simulation that “predicted” a global monkeypox pandemic in May 2022, the same month an outbreak occurred.

Open Philanthropy has, over the past decade, provided hundreds of millions of dollars in donations and grants for “global health,” “biosecurity and pandemic preparedness” and “global catastrophic risks.”

In turn, the Institute for OneWorld Health, which claims it “partner with communities in developing countries to bring permanent, sustainable healthcare to the chronically underserved,” has received multiple grants from the BMGF, including a 2004 grant for the development of a malaria vaccine.

Other Sanaria donors include the NIH and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Center for Infectious Disease Research, the National Institute of Standards, the Military Infections Disease Research Program and the European Vaccine Initiative.

Gates’ enthusiasm for gene-editing technology ‘off the charts’

One of the novel aspects of the University of Washington trial was that the parasites used were “disarmed” using CRISPR — or Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats — gene editing tools.

CRISPR is described as “a component of bacterial immune systems that can cut DNA” that “has been repurposed as a gene editing tool,” acting “as a precise pair of molecular scissors that can cut a target DNA sequence, directed by a customizable guide” — a piece of RNA with a “guide” sequence that attaches to the target DNA sequence.

According to geekwire.com:

“When it comes to fighting malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases … CRISPR-Cas9 and other gene-editing tools are being used to change the insects’ genome to ensure that they can’t pass along the parasites that cause those diseases.”

Gates — an enthusiastic proponent of CRISPR — previously suggested CRISPR could be used to eliminate mosquitoes that transmit malaria.

According to a 2018 Business Insider report:

“Gates has long been supportive of using genetic editing tools. He was one of the early investors in Editas Medicine, one of the first companies to start trying to use CRISPR to eliminate human diseases.

“Gates Foundation researchers have worked for nearly a decade on ways to use genetic editing to improve crops and to wipe out malaria-carrying mosquitoes.”

In a 2018 Foreign Affairs article written by Gates, he specifically addressed CRISPR’s potential malaria-related applications:

“Scientists are also exploring other ways to use CRISPR to inhibit mosquitoes’ ability to transmit malaria — for example, by introducing genes that could eliminate the parasites as they pass through a mosquito’s gut on their way to its salivary glands, the main path through which infections are transmitted to humans.”

In a 2021 blog post addressing recent CRISPR-related developments, Gates said his “excitement about CRISPR has grown from super high to off the charts.”

And in a July tweet commemorating the 10th “birthday” of CRISPR, Gates described it as “one of the most important inventions in medicine, biology, and agriculture.”

Gates also helped fund the currently approved RTS,S malaria vaccine — as did Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, with which the BMGF is a partner.

Some scientists, however, are less enthusiastic about CRISPR’s gene-editing applications, warning they may result in unintended, harmful consequences.

For instance, in testimony submitted to the British Parliament in 2020, scientists Claire Robinson of GMWatch and Michael Antoniou of King’s College London warned:

“GM (including gene editing) of crops, animals and foods leads to several different types of unintended genetic mutations, which unpredictably alter the function of multiple gene systems of the organism.

“Altered patterns of gene function will unpredictably change the biochemistry of the organism.”

And even Gates, in his 2018 Foreign Affairs article, could not ignore the myriad of ethical controversies associated with CRISPR.

Nevertheless, Gates and the BMGF have been proponents of GM mosquitoes even beyond CRISPR.

For instance, the BMGF provided funding to Oxitec, a firm that has conducted pilot projects in Florida and Brazil using GM mosquitoes, purportedly with the aim of reducing the spread of mosquito-borne viruses.

In Brazil, the GM mosquitoes that were released were said to lack the ability to produce offspring — but were nevertheless found to have reproduced.

The BMGF also reportedly was “heavily involved” in trials using GM mosquitoes in India — and even went as far as to propose, in 2017, alongside the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs, the development of a mosquito emoji, to be “used for public health campaigns.
 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment

UN chief: Countries bound for COP27 must make climate action ‘the top global priority’​

3 October 2022

As government representatives begin the finalize the agenda for the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt next month, for pre-COP planning in the Democratic Republic of the Congo capital, Kinshasa, Secretary-General António Guterres told journalists in New York that the work ahead is “as immense as the climate impacts we are seeing around the world”.

“A third of Pakistan flooded. Europe’s hottest summer in 500 years. The Philippines hammered. The whole of Cuba in black-out. And here, in the United States, Hurricane Ian has delivered a brutal reminder that no country and no economy is immune from the climate crisis,” he highlighted.

And while “climate chaos gallops ahead, climate action has stalled,” he added.

Faulty maths


The top UN Official underscored the importance of COP27 while warning that the collective commitments of G20 leading industrialized nations governments are coming “far too little, and far too late”.

“The actions of the wealthiest developed and emerging economies simply don’t add up.,” he said, pointing out that current pledges and policies are “shutting the door” on limiting global temperature to 2°C, let alone meet the 1.5°C goal.

Mr. Guterres warned, “we are in a life-or-death struggle for our own safety today and our survival tomorrow,” saying there is no time for pointing fingers or “twiddling thumbs” but instead requires “a quantum level compromise between developed and emerging economies”.

“The world can’t wait,” he spelled out. “Emissions are at an all-time high and rising”.

And he said that while pursuing their own “drop-in-the-bucket initiatives” international financial institutions must overhaul their business approaches to combat climate change.

Backsliding

Meanwhile, as the planet burns, the Ukraine war is putting climate action on the back burner and the dynamic climate actors in the business world continue to be hampered by “obsolete regulatory frameworks, red tape and harmful subsidies that send the wrong signals”.

Meaningful progress must be made to address loss and damage beyond countries’ abilities to adapt as well as financial support for climate action, upheld the UN chief

Decisions must be made now on the question of loss and damage as “failure to act” will lead to “more loss of trust and more climate damage,” he said, describing it as “a moral imperative that cannot be ignored”.

Action ‘litmus test’

COP27 is “the number one litmus test” of how seriously governments take the growing climate toll on the most vulnerable countries.

This week’s pre-COP can determine how this crucial issue will be handled in Sharm el-Shaikh,” he informed the media, noting that the world needs clarity from developed countries on the delivery of their $100 billion pledge to support climate action in developing countries.

Moreover, adaptation and resilience funding must represent half of all climate finance; multilateral development banks “must raise their game”; and emerging economies need support to back renewable energy and build resilience.

While the Resilience and Sustainability Trust led by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a good start, major multilateral development bank shareholders must be the driving force for transformative change, he continued.

On every climate front, the only solution is solidarity and decisive action”.

The Secretary-General chief upheld that by showing up at COP27 in Sharm el-Shaikh, all countries – led by the G-20 – can demonstrate that “climate action truly is the top global priority that it must be”.

Secretary-General António Guterres (at podium) briefs reporters on climate change and the UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Egypt.

Step up climate adaptation support

Meanwhile in Kinshasa, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed warned environment ministers and others that the window of opportunity to avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis is closing.

She stressed that greater support for climate adaptation in developing countries “must be a global priority”, particularly progress on adaptation finance.

Ms. Mohammed recalled that at last year’s COP26 conference in Glasgow, developed nations had promised to double adaptation support to $40 billion dollars a year by 2025.  

The UN deputy chief called for a clear roadmap on how the funding will be delivered, starting this year.

She added that $40 billion is “only a fraction of the $300 billion that will be needed annually by developing countries for adaptation by 2030”.

Counting every moment

Ms. Mohammed underscored that the world “desperately needs hope”.
“We need progress…that shows that leaders fully comprehend the scale of the emergency we face and the value of COP, as a space where world leaders come together to solve problems and take responsibility,” she said.
“Every moment counts”.

The deputy chief said that it is time to prove that we are moving in the right direction “with an outcome that shows our collective commitment to addressing the climate crisis because people, and the children here today, and the planet matter”.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Aramco Says Global Oil Spare Buffers to Slump When China Reopens​

  • Spare capacity will be ‘eroded completely,’ says CEO Nasser
  • Company sees little extra competition from Russia in Asia
Will Mathis
October 4, 2022 at 2:29 AM PDT

The world’s biggest oil company reiterated its warning that producers’ spare capacity is running low and said there wouldn’t be any left once China ends its Covid Zero strategy.

((Pay wall)
 
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