GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Brooks: Italy, Sweden Results Send ‘Big Message for Joe Biden, You’ve Got to Control the Borders’​

IAN HANCHETT1 Oct 2022122

View: https://youtu.be/83wUqeHbgvA
12:00 min

On Friday’s “PBS NewsHour,” New York Times columnist David Brooks said that the election results in Italy and Sweden send “a big message for Joe Biden, you’ve got to control the borders. Americans like immigration, but they want control of the borders.”

Brooks said, “Well, the West should be concerned about immigration. In Italy and Sweden, immigration is the top issue, as it was for Donald Trump, as it is for a lot of these other — the Swedes have a higher immigration rate as a percentage of population as — than we do, which is — we’re the nation of immigrants. And so, if you don’t get your immigration under control, a lot of people are going to be upset. And it should be — it’s a big message for Joe Biden, you’ve got to control the borders. Americans like immigration, but they want control of the borders. If you don’t do it — in countries where you don’t do it, the center-left collapses.”

He continued, “The second thing is that there was a Meloni video that went viral this week of her saying, here are my identities: I’m an Italian. I’m a woman. I’m a mother. I’m a Christian. And those people are out to destroy every one of my identities. And that is sort of the cultural message that all of these different conservative movements have, and even Vladimir Putin, talking about gender changing in the middle of a war. And so, the cultural element is not to be underestimated. And I would say, it’s cohering, the cultural critique of modernism, of cosmopolitanism, whatever you want to call it, urbanism, it’s cohering around the world. And we see it in almost every Western country.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

EXCLUSIVE: Record 2.2 Million Migrants Apprehended by Border Patrol in FY22, 604K Got Away​

BOB PRICE and RANDY CLARK1 Oct 2022289

Border Patrol agents apprehended a record-setting 2.2 million migrants who illegally crossed the southwest border with Mexico, according to a source within U.S. Customs and Border Protection. In addition, the unofficial year-end numbers show an estimate of nearly 604,000 migrant got-aways.

As the record-setting Fiscal Year 2022 came to a close at midnight, a source within U.S. Customs and Border Protection told Breitbart Texas that agents working the nine southwest border sectors apprehended more than 2.2 million migrants. This represents an increase of nearly 27 percent over last year’s record of 1.7 million migrant apprehensions. The source spoke to Breitbart under the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to journalists.

The Del Rio Sector jumped from second place last year to become the busiest of the Border Patrol sectors with the apprehension of nearly a half-million migrants this year. The number of apprehensions jumped from nearly 260,000 in FY21 to 480,000 this year — an increase of nearly 85 percent. The number of migrants apprehended in this sector in FY2020 was slightly over 90,000.

The Rio Grande Valley Sector fell to second place with the apprehension of 468,000 migrants. This is down from last year’s record of nearly 550,000.

In addition to the 2.2 million migrant apprehensions, Border Patrol officials classified another nearly 604,000 as got-aways. This number is a conservative estimate of migrants who are seen crossing the border but cannot be apprehended at the time, migrants that are part of a group that is partially apprehended, or by estimating numbers based upon tracks found in smuggling areas.

The number of got-aways is up from last year’s estimate of 500,000 in Fiscal Year 2021.

Agents previously told Breitbart the numbers of got-aways are likely much higher because of the constant flow of migrants being apprehended along the southern border impedes the agency’s ability to adequately patrol miles of the border. The absence of routine patrols is driving the got-away numbers up as there are no available Border Patrol agents to respond to electronic sensors, camera activations, and unmanned aerial surveillance sightings.

Editor’s Note: The Fiscal Year 2022 numbers above are from unofficial CBP reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas. Those numbers could change slightly when the official numbers are released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s year-ending Southwest Land Border Encounter report later this month.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Oct 2, 2022 at 6:01am
India Famine
02 October 2022
Dublin, Ireland

Based situation, including conversations with ammonia production experts, etc., I sense India will go into severe famine. About five/six years ago I reconned much of the route between India and Thailand for just such an event. There is a clear shot to Thailand through Bangladesh and Myanmar for those who can make it.

1664711280809.jpeg
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Oct 2, 2022 at 6:24am
Norwegian Refugee Council is Part of the Problem
02 October 2022
Dublin, Ireland

I physically seen NRC on the ground in places like Darien Gap facilitating invasion of United States. NRC is an enemy of United States and Europe.

^^^^^

Somalia stands on the brink of famine. After months of catastrophic drought, the United Nations has issued a “final warning”, as the most dangerous period of the crisis approaches. But what actually is a famine? Who decides when a famine is happening, and what does it mean when they do?

On 11 August 2022, the drought in Somalia reached unprecedented levels. For the first time, one million people were registered as having been displaced by the drought since it began in January 2021. “This one-million milestone serves as a massive alarm bell for Somalia,” said Mohamed Abdi, NRC’s country director in Somalia. “Starvation is now haunting the entire country.”

Since then, the situation has worsened. Last week, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, gave a press briefing from Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. He described the devastation, suffering and death he had witnessed, but explained that “we have not met the technical thresholds for declaring [famine] yet”.

The word “famine” is often used loosely to describe a situation of extreme and widespread hunger. But it also has a more precise definition in a humanitarian context. At the heart of this definition is the idea of “food insecurity”.

The five phases of food insecurity
When we say that people are food secure, it means they can access sufficient nutritious food on a regular basis. When people are food insecure, it means that their food supply isn’t guaranteed. Perhaps they’re struggling financially and can’t always afford to eat well. Or perhaps there simply isn’t enough food to go round in the area where they live.

In 2004, the UN devised a system for monitoring food insecurity in populations. The system is called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC for short.

It describes five levels, or phases, of food insecurity:

Phase 1: Minimal. People can get enough nutritious food without major changes to their everyday lives.

Phase 2: Stressed. People have minimally adequate diets but struggle to meet their other needs.

Phase 3: Crisis. Some people can’t get enough food and have high levels of malnutrition. Others are forced to use up their savings and other assets to support their basic food needs.

Phase 4: Emergency. People face extreme food shortages. Acute malnutrition and disease levels are high. The risk of hunger-related death is rapidly increasing.

Phase 5: Famine. People are unable to access food or meet their other basic needs. At least one in five households face extreme food shortages, and at least 30 per cent of children suffer from acute malnutrition. Each day, at least two out of every 10,000 people die of starvation or malnutrition-related disease.

Why do we need the IPC system?
The main purpose of the IPC system is to provide information to decision-makers so that they can take action to stop crises getting worse. The system looks at different aspects of food insecurity, including urgent medical needs, urgent food needs, and issues that are more persistent or seasonal such as repeated crop failure.

This analysis helps to identify what kind of intervention is needed – for example, whether it should take the form of emergency aid or longer-term development assistance.

Governments, UN agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders work together to monitor IPC levels in parts of the world where food insecurity is a concern. When IPC 3 (Crisis) is reached, these organisations mobilise to take urgent action.

In Somalia, nearly 6.7 million people are currently facing IPC 3 or worse – that’s more than 40 per cent of the country’s population.

An aerial view of Qaydar-adde camp in Baidoa, one of the main destinations of people displaced by the severe drought in Somalia. Photo: Abdulkadir Mohamed/NRC

What happens when a famine is declared?
The decision to declare a famine is usually made jointly by the government of the affected country and various UN and other international agencies. It’s a complex process involving a lot of analysis and negotiation.

While this process is going on, famine-like conditions may already be afflicting parts of the country. In Somalia right now, for example, some 1.8 million children are thought to be acutely malnourished.

The declaration of a famine doesn’t place any formal obligations on the UN or its member states. However, it does help to focus the world’s attention on the problem – and thus generate emergency funding.

Where is food insecurity an issue?
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), there are more than half a billion people with insufficient food, and 16 countries with very high levels of hunger. Food insecurity is an issue in many different parts of the world, from Central America to Afghanistan, and the picture is constantly changing.

You can view the latest hunger hotspots on the WFP’s online hunger map.

What causes famine?
The most common cause of famine is drought. Other causes include flooding, crop disease, conflict, and political neglect or persecution.

Often, a combination of factors comes into play. In Somalia, a long-running conflict has exacerbated the effects of the ongoing drought. In addition, food prices in the country have risen steeply following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Somalia used to rely on Russia and Ukraine for 90 per cent of its wheat, and has now been forced to find alternative, more expensive, food sources.

Climate change is contributing to more frequent, and more severe, droughts and floods around the world. We can expect food insecurity related to extreme weather to increase in the years to come.

Famines are often thought of as “natural disasters”, but they are usually caused to a large degree by human actions – or lack of action.

How common is famine?
In the last decade, famine has been declared on two occasions.

The famines in Somalia in 2011 and in South Sudan in 2017 resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people. These extreme crises were mainly driven by a combination of conflict and erratic weather patterns.

However, it’s important to note that death and suffering linked to food insecurity happen even when there isn’t a famine. In fact, by the time a famine is declared, children will already have started to die because their parents cannot give them enough food to survive.

That’s why it’s important to take decisive action early. In 2017, the international community helped to avert famine in Somalia and other parts of East Africa because it took early action. An even greater effort is needed now if we are to avert catastrophic loss of life.

What is NRC doing to help?
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has been supporting people displaced by conflict in Somalia since 2004. We also assist those affected by drought and other environmental factors.

Between January and August 2022, we reached 636,768 individuals as part of our Somalia Drought Response Plan, including:

363,136 people provided with food assistance
82,739 people provided with water, sanitation and hygiene support
121,673 people supported with information, counselling and legal assistance
48,284 people provided with shelter
20,936 children assisted with education
Read more about our work in Somalia
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The War Has Just Begun

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 04:00 AM
Via 'Big Serge' Thoughts Substack,

The Winter of Yuri
I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attrititional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

You should know, by and large, we haven’t even started anything yet in earnest.”

This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.

In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri:

1664711765409.png

Let’s try to process all the developments of the past few weeks and get a handle on the trajectory in Ukraine.

Annexation​

The keystone event at the heart of recent escalation was the announcement of referenda in four regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) to determine the question of entry into the Russian Federation. The implication of course was that if the referenda succeeded (a question that was never in doubt), these regions would be annexed to Russia. While there were some rumors circulating that Russia would delay the annexation, this was never really plausible. To allow these regions to vote in favor of joining Russia only to leave them out in the cold would be monumentally unpopular and raise serious doubts about Russia’s commitment to its people in Ukraine.

Formal annexation is a certainty, if not on September 30th as rumored, then within the next week.

All of this is rather predictable, and completes the first layer of annexations which I noted in previous analysis. The reasoning is not particularly complex: clearing the Donbas and securing Crimea were the absolute minimum Russian objectives for the war, and securing Crimea requires both a land bridge with road and rail connections (Zaporizhia oblast) and controlling Crimea’s water sources (Kherson). These minimum objectives have now been formally designated, though of course Ukraine maintains some military activity on these territories and will have to be dislodged.

1664711830541.png

I think, however, that people lost focus as to what the referenda and the ensuing annexation means. Western talking points focused on the illegitimacy of the votes and the illegality of any annexation, but this is really not very interesting or important. The legitimacy of annexation is derived from whether or not Russian administration can succeed in these regions. Legitimacy, as such, is merely a question of efficacy of state power. Can the state protect, extract, and adjudicate?

In any case, what is far more interesting than the technicalities of the referenda is what the decision to annex these regions says about Russian intentions. Once these regions become formally annexed, they will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity - non-negotiables, in other words.

I think the best way to formulate it is as such:

Annexation confers a formal designation that a territory has been deemed existentially important to the Russian state, and will be contested as if the integrity of the nation and state is at risk.

Those fixating on the “legality” of the referenda (as if such a thing exists) and Medvedev’s supposed nuclear blackmail are missing this point. Russia is telling us where it currently draws the line for its absolute minimum peace conditions. It’s not walking away without at least these four oblasts, and it considers the full range of state capabilities to be in play to achieve that goal.

Force Generation​

The move to hold referenda and eventually annex the southeastern rim was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a “partial mobilization”. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but the door is left upon for further surges at the discretion of the president’s office. Implicitly, Putin can now ramp up the mobilization as he sees fit without needing to make further announcements or sign more paperwork. This is similar to American Lend-Lease or the “Authorization for Use of Military Force” in America, where the door is opened once and the President is then free to move at will without even informing the public.

It was increasingly clear that Russia needed to raise its force deployment. Ukraine’s successful drive to the Oskil River was made possible by Russian economy of force. The Russian army had completely hollowed out Kharkiv Oblast, leaving only a thin screening force of national guardsmen and LNR militia. In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine - the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.


A Shooting Gallery

So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the spring, around Kiev, and now the late summer recapture of Kharkov Oblast. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. The obvious solution, therefore, is to raise the force deployment so that it is no longer necessary to hollow out sections of the front.

The initial surge of 300,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected. Additionally, many of the units originally committed to Ukraine have been off the front for refitting and resting. The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities.

Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas as it lovingly collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives - one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded. Rumors circulated of a third offensive towards Melitipol, but Ukraine does not seem to have the combat power to achieve this, and strong Russian forces are in the region behind prepared defensive lines.

On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion. Let’s look at this more closely.

Depleting NATO​

One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.

There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities.

Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel (heh heh) of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid tranche on September 28th, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.

In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.

As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon - the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.

The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

The Winter War​

Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.

Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow. Going back to World War Two, the Red Army was more than capable of offensive success during the winter, starting in 1941 with the general counteroffensive at Moscow, again in 1942 with the destruction of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad, and in 1943-44 with two successful large scale offensives beginning in the winter. Now, of course World War Two is not directly applicable in all ways, but we can establish that from a technical standpoint there is a clearly established capability to wage operations in cold weather.

We also have more recent examples. In 2015, during the first Donbas War, LNR and DNR forces launched a pincer operation which successfully encircled a Ukrainian battalion at the Battle of Debaltseve. And, of course, the Russo-Ukrainian War begin in February, when much of northern Ukraine was below freezing temperatures.


Nice Move

Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground.

From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:
  1. Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.
  2. An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.
  3. Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.
  4. A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.
Part 1 of 2
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2

Other possibilities I regard as unlikely. A second advance on Kiev would make little operational sense, as it would not support any of the existing fronts. I would expect action around Kiev only if the new force generation is significantly larger than the headline number of 300,000. Otherwise, Russia’s winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts. I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine’s gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction. There are rumors that forces are being moved into Belarus, but I actually think the Chernigov-Sumy axis would be more likely than a new Kiev operation, as it could be supportive of an offensive on Kharkov.


Potential Axes of Winter Advance (Base Map Credit: @War_Mapper)

On the broadest level, it is clear that Ukraine’s window to conduct offensive operations is nearing its close, and the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter.

Nordstream and Escalation​

As we were pondering these developments on the ground, yet another plotline emerged underwater. The first hint that something was amiss was the news that pressure in the Nordstream 1 pipeline was dropping mysteriously. It was then revealed that the pipeline - along with the non-operational Nordstream 2 - had suffered serious damage. Swedish seismologists recorded explosions on the floor of the Baltic Sea, and it was revealed that the pipelines are heavily damaged.

Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up.

The *only* feasible scenario in which Russia might be responsible for the sabotage would be if some hardliner faction within the Russian government felt that Putin was moving too slowly, and wanted to force an escalation. This would imply, however, that Putin is losing internal control, and there is no evidence whatsoever for such a theory.

And so, we return to elementary analysis, and ask: Cui bono? Who benefits? Well, considering Poland celebrated the opening of a new pipeline to Norway only a few days ago, and a certain former Polish MP cryptically thanked the United States on Twitter, it is fair to make a few guesses.



The first lesson of doing crimes is not to brag about it on twitter

Let us briefly meditate on the actual implications of Nordstream’s demise.
  1. Germany loses what little autonomy and flexibility it had, making it even more dependent on the United States.
  2. Russia loses a point of leverage over Europe, reducing the inducements to negotiation.
  3. Poland and Ukraine become even more critical transit hubs for gas.
Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” and argued that the explosions occurred in areas “controlled by NATO” - the concatenation of these statements is that they blame NATO for an act of terrorism, without explicitly saying that. This precipitated another meeting of the Russian National Security Council.

Many western nations have advised their citizens to leave Russia immediately, suggesting they are worried about escalation (this coincides with Ukraine’s unhinged claim that Russia may be about to use nuclear weapons). For the time being, I expect Russian escalation to remain confined to Ukraine itself, likely coinciding with the deployment of additional Russian ground forces. If Russia feels compelled to undertake an out of theater escalation, targeting American satellites, digital infrastructure, or forces in Syria remain the most likely option.

On the Precipice​

I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase.

Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.

During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7Pp3PNw_zA
8:02 min

A Bank Collapse Soon​

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The Economic Ninja

A Bank Collapse Soon
(Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank possible collapse. B of A warns Fed about to break corporate bond market. Billionaires selling stocks...it will take time but there will be repos and foreclosures.)

^^^^
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w853bEoa3Zk
6:55 min

Nike And Target Have A Big Problem​

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The Economic Ninja

Nike And Target Have A Big Problem

^^^

Another major brand is discounting its extra inventory​

By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN Business
Updated 1:49 PM EDT, Fri September 30, 2022

Add Nike to the list of brands and stores discounting excess merchandise to clear it off shelves.

Nike (NKE) said Thursday its inventory levels soared 65% in North America, its largest market, and 44% overall last quarter from a year ago.

After navigating limited supply in 2021 Nike is now carrying far too much product, particularly when it comes to clothing.

“We effectively have a few seasons landing in the marketplace at the same time,” creating a glut, Nike CEO John Donahoe said on a call with analysts Thursday.

Donahoe explained that when Nike factories in Vietnam and Indonesia had to close after Covid-19 outbreaks, goods arrived late for this year’s spring, summer and fall seasons. Then Nike’s upcoming holiday season orders arrived earlier than planned. Meanwhile, the brand still has merchandise orders in transit.

Nike will discount items to move them, and those promotions will weigh on its profitability for the coming quarters, he added. Nike’s stock tumbled 11% during afternoon trading Friday.

Investors also are worried about other athletic companies’ inventory, Under Armour (UA), Adidas (ADDDF), Dick’s (DKS) and other athletic companies all fell sharply Friday as well on the Nike news.

Holiday sales creep has gotten out of hand
To unload goods that are now out of season and shift to the appropriate holiday selection, Nike will move more clothing to its own factory stores, promote online and sell more to discount stores such as TJ Maxx. Nike in recent years has been pulling back on selling products to other retailers. Sending its goods to discount chains is a last resort.

“We are taking decisive action to clear excess inventory, focusing on specific pockets of seasonally late products, predominantly in apparel,” Donahoe said.

Inventory glut has been an issue across retail companies, with Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and others saying in recent weeks that they expect the upcoming shopping season to be packed with discounts. This year, retailers seriously misjudged what’s in demand and are sitting on too much casual clothing, home goods, electronics and other non-essentials.

But the level of Nike’s excess inventory was not expected.

“The surprise of the quarter was the magnitude of promotional activity needed to move through excess apparel,” Lorraine Hutchinson, an analyst at Bank of America, said in a note to clients Friday.

Despite the inventory glut, Nike did have some positive news to share: Demand remained strong, especially for sneakers, even in the face of high inflation. Overall, Nike’s sales jumped 4% last quarter from the same period a year ago.

“We see strong consumer demand in North America currently,” Donahoe said. “There’s no signs of any softness.”
 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnAkomYDGrQ
.26 min

King Charles to skip climate change conference​

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Sky News Australia

King Charles will not be attending a climate change conference in Egypt next month. Buckingham Palace confirmed the King had sought advice from the government and Prime Minister Liz Truss regarding his attendance at the COP27 conference, with all parties agreeing he would not make an appearance. King Charles is well known for his long history of campaigning to reduce the effects of climate change, attending COP26 in Glasgow when he was Prince of Wales.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAnHG0y4Hqg
10:47 min

Prof Christian Schlüchter presentation May 2016​

Oct 2, 2022


Tony Heller

Prof Christian Schlüchter presentation May 2016. Alpine discoveries show that the pre-industrial Roman era was warmer than today. In fact most of the last 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age were warmer than today.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Pfizer mRNA Spike Protein Found in Deceased Man’s Brain and Heart: Peer-Reviewed Report​

“We know it goes to the brain, it goes to the heart, it produces the spike protein, which damages those cells, causes inflammation... it travels... causing damage to blood vessels and blood clots."

KanekoaTheGreat
53 min ago


Dr. Michael Mörz from the Institute for Pathology in Dresden, Germany, published a case study of an autopsy of a 76-year-old deceased man in the journal Vaccines.

In the report, spike proteins specifically attributed to COVID-19 vaccination targeted blood vessels in the man’s brain and heart.

Incredibly, the report used immunohistochemistry, which uses immune staining methods that light up specific antigens, to determine that “only spike protein but no nucleocapsid protein” could be detected meaning the necrotizing encephalitis (death of brain tissues) as well as the inflammatory changes in the small blood vessels (brain and heart) were caused by COVID-19 vaccination rather than viral infection.

"Surprisingly, only spike protein but no nucleocapsid protein could be detected within the foci of inflammation in both the brain and the heart, particularly in the endothelial cells of small blood vessels. Since no nucleocapsid protein could be detected, the presence of spike protein must be ascribed to vaccination rather than to viral infection. The findings corroborate previous reports of encephalitis and myocarditis caused by gene-based COVID-19 vaccines."

Study: Nucleocapsid antibody positivity as a marker of past SARS-CoV-2 infection in population serosurveillance studies: impact of variant, vaccination, and choice of assay cut-off. Image Credit: Orpheus FX / Shutterstock

Since the COVID-19 vaccines only encode for the spike protein, but not the nucleocapsid found in natural infection, the autopsy doctor was able to determine that the heart and brain inflammation was caused by COVID-19 vaccination rather than natural infection.

Interestingly, the elderly man who had Parkinson’s Disease (PD) “experienced pronounced cardiovascular side effects, for which he repeatedly had to consult his doctor” after his first Astra Zeneca ChAdOx1 vector vaccine in May 2021.

After his second vaccination with Pfizer’s BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in July 2021, the family noticed that the elderly man experienced “increased anxiety, lethargy, and social withdrawal.”

Furthermore, “there was a striking worsening of his PD symptoms, which led to severe motor impairment and a recurrent need for wheelchair support”, which the man “never fully recovered from” before receiving his third vaccination (second Pfizer) in December 2021.

Two weeks after the third vaccination, he “suddenly collapsed while eating dinner” without “coughing or any signs of food aspiration”.

He recovered from this more or less, but one week later, he again suddenly collapsed silently while eating his meal, leading to his hospitalization and death shortly thereafter.

The man’s family asked for an autopsy because he had already shown noticeable changes in behavior, cardiovascular symptoms, and worsening of his Parkinson’s Disease symptoms after each COVID-19 vaccination.

"In the brain, SARS-CoV-2 spike protein subunit 1 was detected in the endothelia, microglia, and astrocytes in the necrotic areas. Furthermore, spike protein could be demonstrated in the areas of lymphocytic periarteritis, present in the thoracic and abdominal aorta and iliac branches, as well as a cerebral basal artery. The SARS-CoV-2 subunit 1 was found in macrophages and in the cells of the vessel wall, in particular the endothelium. In contrast, the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 could not be detected in any of the corresponding tissue sections.”


Figure 10. Brain, Nucleus ruber. The abundant presence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in swollen endothelium of a capillary vessel shows acute signs of inflammation with sparse mononuclear inflammatory cell infiltrates (same vessel as shown in Figure 12, serial sections of 5 to 20 μm).

Immunohistochemical demonstration for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein subunit 1 visible as brown granules in capillary endothelial cells (red arrow) and individual glial cells (blue arrow). Magnification: 200× Source: MDPI-Vaccine


Figure 12. Brain, Nucleus ruber. Negative immunohistochemical reaction for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Cross section through a capillary vessel. Magnification: 200×. Source: MDPI-Vaccine


Figure 9. Frontal brain. Positive reaction for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Cross section through a capillary vessel (same vessel as shown in Figure 11, serial sections of 5 to 20 μm). Immunohistochemical reaction for SARS-CoV-2 spike subunit 1 detectable as brown granules in capillary endothelial cells (red arrow) and individual glial cells (blue arrow). Magnification: 200×. Source: MDPI-Vaccines


Figure 11. Frontal brain. Negative immunohistochemical reaction for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Cross section through a capillary vessel (same vessel as shown in Figure 9, serial sections of 5 to 20 μm). Magnification: 200×. Source: MDPI-Vaccines

“Immunohistochemistry for SARS-CoV-2 antigens (spike protein and nucleocapsid) revealed that the lesions with necrotizing encephalitis as well as the acute inflammatory changes in the small blood vessels (brain and heart) were associated with abundant deposits of the spike protein SARS-CoV-2 subunit 1. Importantly, spike protein could be only demonstrated in the areas with acute inflammatory reactions (brain, heart, and small blood vessels), in particular in endothelial cells, microglia, and astrocytes. This is strongly suggestive that the spike protein may have played at least a contributing role to the development of the lesions and the course of the disease in this patient.”


Figure 13. Heart left ventricle. Positive reaction for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Cross section through a capillary vessel (same vessel as shown in Figure 14, serial sections of 5 to 20 μm). Immunohistochemical demonstration of SARS-CoV-2 spike subunit 1 as brown granules. Note the abundant presence of spike protein in capillary endothelial cells (red arrow) associated with prominent endothelial swelling and the presence of a few mononuclear inflammatory cells. Magnification: 400×. Source: MDPI-Vaccines


Figure 14. Heart left ventricle. Negative immunohistochemical reaction for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Cross section through a capillary vessel (same vessel as shown in Figure 13, serial sections of 5 to 20 μm). Magnification: 400×. Source: MDPI-Vaccines

Dr. Robert Malone, a critic of the COVID-19 vaccination program, has long warned that the, “synthetic mRNA like genetic material persists in the body for 60 days or longer and produces spike protein at levels higher than is observed with the actual SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

Ominously, the CDC quietly removed the claim that the vaccine generated spike protein “does not last long in the body” from its website between July 16th and July 22nd.

“This is the first time we have had a vaccine go to the brain and go to the heart,” Dr. Peter McCullough, another expert has warned since last year.

“We know it goes to the brain, it goes to the heart, it produces the spike protein, which damages those cells, causes inflammation, and then from there it travels in the body causing damage to blood vessels and causing blood clots."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Oct 2, 2022 at 6:19pm
Pipelines and other Infrastructure
02 October 2022
Belfast, Northern Ireland

Most Irish, as with most other Europeans and Americans, seem oblivious to what is unfolding.

Some friends and I had dinner here tonight. The Europa is said to be the most bombed hotel in Europe.

Unfortunately, bombs soon will boom around Europe and America:

View: https://youtu.be/aCwaxEoZg0U
26:00 min

Europe’s most bombed hotel: The Europa Hotel in Belfast | War Hotels​

May 30, 2021
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Al Jazeera English

For three decades the Europa Hotel in Belfast hosted more journalists than tourists, survived 33 bombings by the Provisional Irish Republican Army and held the dubious honour of being Europe’s most bombed hotel. It was both a target and a reporters' refuge during the bloody conflict in Northern Ireland in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. One of the reasons the hotel became a focus of attack was that it was a base for the world’s media and reporters covering the conflict. Some of these journalists - Martin Bell, Robin Walsh, Henry Kelly and Gerald Seymour - recall those grim times, while Professor Kenneth Morrison and Martin Mulholland, who worked at the hotel for 18 years, recount the remarkable story of this war hotel. Built as a symbol of late 1960s optimism and modernity in the city centre, the Europa was a recurrent focus for the IRA’s attacks in the armed struggle between the Protestant Unionist majority, who wanted to remain within the United Kingdom, and the Catholic Republican minority. The hotel withstood these devastating bomb blasts and also saw successful evacuations and complex bomb disposal work. It was managed by the indomitable Harper Brown for much of this time, who oversaw the endless cycle of bombs, repairs, rebuilding and more bombs.

Amid the blasts, journalists thrived on the gossip and intrigue that fluttered around the hotel, from whispers in the dining room to the odd spy story and the comings and goings of various players in the conflict, all part of the cut and thrust of reporting the "Troubles". The hotel was a hub of communication and at times almost a newsroom for them. With few tourists in these troubled times, the Europa survived on these journalists too, and they all share a deep fondness for this extraordinary hotel, which played its own part in Northern Ireland’s complex history.

1664753899629.jpeg
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained​

By davefairtex on
October 2, 2022

The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity, and all is well), unless, of course, they were using a ton of borrowed money to amplify the yield on the bonds. Which, it turns out, is what they were doing.

Why borrow money? Turns out the rates on government bonds were too low for the pension funds to meet their obligations (thanks central bankers), so the pension funds ended up taking much larger risks, using leverage. And using leverage to create a large portfolio of government bonds worked great, right up until the moment the rates on these bonds started to rise rapidly. And then – suddenly – it wasn’t fine anymore. There were (probably) margin calls; bankruptcy beckoned.

So, to head off this impending leveraged-pension-fund destruction, which would most likely have angered (and impoverished) a large number of pensioners, the Bank of England stepped in to buy the plunging (probably no-bid) government bonds in question. “We’ll take all of them.” Whew. Leveraged-pension-funds saved from destruction. At least for the moment. That was Wednesday. And all it cost was 65 billion pounds.

Bank of England to buy 65 billion pounds of UK bonds to stem rout (Source – Reuters).
BOE Ignites Global Rally in Everything From Stocks to Bonds (Source – Bloomberg).
Initially, this move was seen as a pivot signal by the enthusiastic herd in the risk asset markets; equities, crappy debt, etc, which rallied strongly on the news. “Yay the pivot has arrived! We’re back to central bank buying sprees!”

The optimism lasted a day. Unfortunately, equities then sold off some more, ending the week at a new low. So the leveraged UK pension funds were (temporarily) rescued, but equities and crappy debt both continued downhill.

Regardless of whether the long hoped-for pivot is in our near-term future, all this is a really big deal. It reflects a serious solvency problem in pension funds in Europe, and perhaps in the U.S. also. That’s why I’m going on about it – this event is a signal of things to come. And, it may reflect an inability of the central banks to stop printing money. That would mean there is no Volcker 20% short-term rates this time around. Too many leveraged funds will break on the way to 20%. Plus, we have another cause of inflation besides money printing: an absurdly large number of people in the workforce have been disabled, which has directly caused worker shortages, which in turn inflates wages. But that’s a story for another time. [I wrote it up, but it got too long – I’ll post it later]

I suspect this pension solvency issue is a massive – and global – problem, which is only showing up first in the UK. Armstrong has been saying this for quite a while now (pensions in the EU are toast, due to engineered low rates on government debt), and it didn’t make sense to me, but now I get it: low rates led to leverage, and leverage is fine right up until rates scream higher, and then it suddenly – overnight – it all turns into a debt-default solvency problem.

Here’s what the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate looks like right now. If some U.S. hedge fund was leveraged in long 30-year mortgages a year ago, they have been crushed by the recent moves. (Rising rates = plunging bond prices). We saw an absurd 41 basis point move just this week alone. I suspect some fund somewhere may have already blown up over this move. Possibly, a wall of forced selling could be the reason why mortgage rates have moved up so rapidly. We just don’t know who it is just yet. Does your money market fund borrow money to invest in 30-year MBS? Does mine? I sure hope not.

mortgage30.png


Remind anyone of 2008? It should. Whenever you see huge, rapid price moves after a long move higher, you should assume someone, somewhere with too much leverage is in the process of blowing up. Hmm. Maybe the Fed will start buying 30-year mortgages? And…how will this play right before the election? Positive or negative? Disasters aren’t a good look for the party in power. Especially, if they are the ones asking you to “Trust the Experts.” Then again, before you can Build Back Better, you need to have the Hiroshima-like Great Reset.

King World News had a 20-minute interview on these events. When I heard it, I laughed at how the interviewee was saying exactly what I have just written about being surprised that the pension funds would lever up long.

WEEKLY WRAP with Alasdair Macleod (Source – King World News); “we never expected our pension funds to be engaging in this sort of activity.”
Now on to the markets.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -2.91% on the week, making a new 6-month low. The sector map was mixed; energy rallied (+2.14%) and materials were second-best (-0.62%), while utilities did worst (-9.54%) along with tech (-4.18%). Boy, that’s a horrific one-week move for the normally-safe-haven utilities. You’re telling me that energy and materials are the safe haven sectors right now? Very unusual, but that’s what prices are saying. The new low is a very bad look for SPX.

SPX.N.Forecast.week_.3.2022-09-30.png


Crappy debt (JNK) dropped -1.08%, making a new 2-year low. Last time we saw prices here was back in March 2020. Crappy debt is down (roughly) 23% from its highs in mid 2021. That’s pretty disagreeable when the fund itself yields about 5.2%. Annually. Now, imagine you’re at 2:1 leverage owning JNK. You make a 10.4% annual yield, but you just lost 46% in capital. At 4:1 leverage? You make 20.8% yield, but you just lost 92% in capital. And, of course, at 5:1 you’re BK. The UK pension funds in a nutshell.

JNK.N.Forecast.week_.4.2022-09-30.png


So, both of those charts looked bearish; new multi-month (or multi-year) new closing lows are bearish signals. By contrast, the buck was just slightly bearish, not even one percent off its highs; the buck fell 0.78% on the week, but at least so far, no bearish reversal on the weekly timeframe. Is the BOE action (buying 65 billion in UK bonds with newly-printed money) bullish for British pounds (GPB)? No. So, why didn’t the buck scream higher with all those new GBPs being printed? Well, just maybe, the currency markets are anticipating that other central banks – including the Fed – will have to perform the exact same operation in the relatively near future to rescue their own leveraged bond-holding funds. That’s what prices are saying to me anyway. Price moves provide information. I do not believe that “all markets are manipulated.” Sure, they might try, but, if it were easy to do, then why would the BOE have to buy 65 billion in bonds?

DX.V.Forecast.week_.3.2022-09-30.png


That brings me to gold, which rose 16.40 [+0.99%] to 1,672 on the week, with most of the gains happening on Wednesday. But, unlike the risk assets and the dollar, gold held on to the Wednesday gains into end of week. The long white candle pattern looks reasonably positive, and even though gold made a new low this week, the fact that gold closed back in positive territory, and it outperformed both crappy debt and equities, is a bullish signal.

GC.V.Forecast.week_.2.2022-09-30.png


Part of the explanation for gold’s rally could be deliveries and/or a huge drop in open interest. Below are deliveries: Thursday was the highest COMEX gold delivery day in the past two years. Interesting how people want to take delivery of actual gold bars right now. What’s more, Friday saw the lowest open interest (OI) in four years. And this week’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows the lowest level of commercial shorts in gold since the end of 2018. These are all signs of us being at or near a low for gold. I know I keep saying stuff like this. Like a stopped clock, I’ll be right someday.
GC.V.Forecast.day_.2.del_.2022-09-30.png


Silver didn’t do quite as well, rising just 0.13 [+0.68%] to 19.04. But unlike gold, silver didn’t make a new low this week, the weekly candle pattern looks reasonably strong, and silver’s open interest is so low that it (checks chart twice) was last here back in 2013, in the middle of the big silver smash! Holy crap. For whatever reason, banksters do NOT want to be short silver. Lowest OI in nine years. That generally only happens at or near the lows.

SI.V.Forecast.week_.4.2022-09-30.png


That brings us to the miners. Did they do well? Yes, indeed, XAU rose 7.57%. This week’s bullish engulfing pattern got a perfect rating (compared with other historical pattern outcomes for the “engulfing” pattern, it rated in the top 1%), which sums to a 70% chance of this being a near-term low. And, when the miners outperform the metal (GDX:Gold +6.04%), that’s also a bullish sign. In addition, this week the GDXJ:GDX ratio (+1.47%) tells us that money is moving into the much more risky junior miners in preference to the seniors. This is about as bullish as I’ve seen the metals get – they’ve literally checked every one of my bullish boxes. This is right when all the open interest and COT (commercial short) positions are also signaling a low may be in.

XAU.N.Forecast.week_.3.2022-09-30.png


Crude went mostly nowhere – it rallied Wednesday, then sold off on Friday, ending the week up 0.75 [+0.95%] to 79.49. The doji candle was just mildly bullish. Open interest in crude has been low for the past several weeks – last seen around these levels in 2015, when price was around $50/bbl. The well-connected banksters have rung the cash register – i.e. closed out their short positions. As with silver and gold, the banksters do not want to be short crude at this moment. Why might that be? Do they know something we don’t? Outside-edge prediction: I predict a rally in crude in about (checks calendar) five and a half weeks. After all, higher oil prices are required in order to address “Climate Change” by causing a Great Reset. But only after November 8. Just a guess. Not financial advice.

Another indicator: the energy sector (XLE) was the best performing equity sector this week. Energy, along with gold and silver, appears to be – maybe – a “safe haven” trade right now. Again, very unusual.

CL.V.Forecast.week_.3.2022-09-30.png


So, how’s the U.S. petroleum reserve doing? Down again this week, of course, as the WEF/Biden-Handler pillaging continues ahead of the election. The dollar value of the campaign-supporting sale was valued at $363 million – just for this week alone. It is as if they sent the FBI on raids to siphon gasoline – that we paid for – out of every one of our cars (and not just the cars of the “semi-fascists”), and then sold the confiscated gas on the open market, just to lower gas prices. This SPR-pillaging, in advance of an election, has never happened before. It is the kind of behavior we can expect from Technocrats like the WEF/Biden-Handlers. “Trust the Experts.”

All my complaining about the SPR-draining has finally made it to the semi-mainstream.

Biden Draining Strategic Petroleum Reserve Like ‘Campaign Credit Card’: Industry Official (Source – ET)

spr.png


The BOE intervention this week was a canary falling over dead in the coal mine. Defaults are ahead. Can’t say where, or in what. Looking at prices and the actions of the banksters: the defaults won’t be in physical gold, silver, or crude oil. Otherwise, be careful out there. Those banksters – and the central banksters – like to change the rules when things go against them. That’s just how they roll. I’ve seen them revert trades that they didn’t like, where normal people had “stink bids” that got hit during a time of turbulence. “Sorry, that price you got was just too good when that stock went no-bid. Your trade has been reversed.” If you use their system, and you win too much, they will change the rules. They do not like it when little people win.

The metals are giving off incredibly bullish signals. That’s not a measure of timing or certainty. Next week they could drop some more, and they might look even more bullish. But, there are signs that Big Money is moving into the miners, and the metals, on the long side. There are lots of deliveries in physical gold too. Things are starting to look positive for crude as well – although I suspect the Big Crude Rally may still be five weeks away. Because, Climate Change must wait for the election.

Part 1 of 2
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2

“Health”:​


The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) quietly dropped its universal masking recommendation for healthcare workers last week (Source – breitbart); after only 30 months.

Yougov Poll: Q#33: Frequency of Wearing a Facemask (Source – Yougov); ” Always: 14%, Mostly: 14%, Sometimes: 27%, Never: 45%”. The Mass Formation group size: 14-28%.

CDC walks back COVID guidance again, finds lasting post-vaccine heart problems in young adults (Source – justthenews); “A CDC study of 12-29 year-olds with heart inflammation following mRNA vaccination, published last week in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, found that 1-in-6 still had not “fully recovered” at least 90 days after myocarditis onset, including 1-in-100 who hadn’t improved at all.” Now, do 14-18 year-old male teens.

Trace amounts of #COVID19 vaccine mRNAs were detected in the breast milk of some lactating women.
(Source – JAMA tweet via Archive); medical misinformation – this time, from JAMA.



Europe/Ukraine:​

Rush to deposit paper £20 and £50 banknotes ahead of deadline to remove them as legal tender (Source – Sky News); repeated currency cancellation is a Central Bankster technique that makes holding cash difficult long-term. Popular in Europe, but the U.S. has never done this. Not yet.

US:​


Zoonotic diseases like COVID-19 and monkeypox will become more common, experts say (Source – npr); Hints that the “Climate Change” WEF may have more lab-grown surprises for us, waiting in the petri dishes.

We Are in a Hybrid War -Maajid Nawaz (Source – rumble); an awesome 22-minute interview which provides chapter and verse what this last two years were all about. Maajid brings receipts, gets spiritual, talks unity and humanity vs. AI and homogenized transhumanism for power and profit.

I ended with the Maajid Nawaz Hybrid War interview for a reason – with the upcoming solvency crisis, the nuclear threats, the mysteriously exploding pipelines, the open southern border, the inflation, the shortages, the constant gaslighting by the narcissistic media, the vaccine disability and death, men in girls sports, cancellation, lab-leak pandemics + No Treatments For You, engineered economic destruction, No Energy for Germany, and the almost-overwhelming amount of other fuss going on right now, I sometimes feel as though I might lose sight of the bigger picture.

It turns out, we are in a Hybrid War. What’s that? A combination of emotional, physical, financial, spiritual, economic, and mental assaults, organized and choreographed in order to achieve an objective. Turns out, all the fuss and confusion IS Hybrid War. Before you can Build Back Better, you must first destroy, via the “Great Reset.” And “war” is not a metaphor. A large number of people – in the millions – are now casualties of this war; either wounded, or dead. First COVID, the lockdown deaths, the hospital-mistreatment deaths, then the vaccine deaths, along with all the disabilities. One part of Hybrid War is when the MSM gaslights us and tells us that most of the casualties have not even happened. That’s just mental/emotional assault. The concept of “Sudden Adult Death Syndrome”, for instance, is a Hybrid War assault.

I got a lot of value from the interview. I like big pictures, and this really did it for me. And, the framing works too. Chris likes to talk about Enemy Action. That sure seems to fit right in. A key part of Hybrid War is to confuse the target (i.e. normal people) so they don’t realize they are at war, so they cannot think clearly. But, once you know you are at war, everything feels a lot clearer.

What’s more, we are all in this together; left, center, right, Christian, Muslim, Jew, agnostic, atheist, straight, gay, man, woman, and everyone in between.

My examples: Conservative Steve Bannon and Liberal Naomi Wolf. Democrats Steve Kirsch and Pierre Kory, Islamic Radical Maajid Nawaz. We all have a choice. Maajid says that (effectively) only 10% of the population gets a choice – the rest are stuck for a variety of reasons. I’d venture to say, most of us here – we’re in that 10%. What choice will we make?

Realizing we’re at war, and knowing that we have a choice, is step #1.

– Peak Prosperity –
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Germany)

Germany Spends 2.5 Billion Euros on 100 Million Bivalent Boosters Only To Discover That Nobody Wants Them​

A strange fate for such safe and effective products. Big think emoji.

eugyppius
8 hr ago


Bivalent booster uptake fail.

The German government has ordered 100 million doses of BA.1 and BA.4/5 bivalent vaccines at a cost of 2.5 billion Euros, and almost nobody wants them. An amusing Weltarticle chronicles the scenes unfolding at our deserted regional vaccination centres, which for some reason are still open:

Michael Hubmann did not expect that so few would come. Only 85 people had themselves vaccinated against Covid-19 on Thursday in Fürth in Middle Franconia, a district with 120,000 inhabitants. “We’ve tried to make it as easy as possible for people,” says Hubmann, a paediatrician who is coordinating the vaccination campaign. He explains that vaccinations were offered simultaneously in two shopping centres, a bus, a home for the elderly and in a former shop in the pedestrian zone. “Yet hardly anyone wanted to have the fourth dose.”

The medical bureaucrats are baffled, just baffled:

“Unfortunately, interest in the fourth dose has been pretty low so far,” says Markus Beier, Chairman of the German Association of General Practitioners. At the same time, he says it’s important that people over 60 and those with previous illnesses in particular protect themselves with a further dose. “There is uncertainty among the population as to what further vaccinations will achieve. But they still strengthen protection against severe outcome.”

Meanwhile, vast quantities of vaccine are expiring. At the end of August alone, 3.9 million doses of Moderna and another 700,000 doses of Novavax had to be binned.

The chart above tells the whole sordid story of our recent experiment with mass vaccination. Demand for this snake oil was highest in the beginning, before anybody had any direct experience with it; and in the Fall, when the government tied vaccination to specific social privileges. As overt vaccinator coercion has faded and millions of people have tried these doubtful elixirs for themselves, interest has all but entirely evaporated. This is the ultimate vindication for all those who have been saying that the vaccines are lousy overhyped pharmaceuticals with a bad side-effect profile. A safe and effective product would only gain momentum with the population. It took less than two years for these to wear out their welcome.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

ANDERSON: The Left’s ESG Movement Is Coming After All Americans. Here’s How It Can Be Stopped

Daily Caller News Foundation
JESSICA ANDERSON
CONTRIBUTOR
October 01, 2022

Americans were just issued a dire warning after “Dilbert,” a comic beloved by many over the years, was dropped from 77 publications after over three decades.

Created by cartoonist Scott Adams, “Dilbert” uses satire to poke fun at traditional office life on a number of issues, which recently included “ESG.” As this particular comic strip explained, the ESG movement seeks to use a new set of criteria — environmental, social, and governance — to evaluate businesses and consumers based on how well they align with the progressives’ woke priorities, including climate radicalism, gender ideology, gun control and even abortion-on-demand.

Probably not by coincidence, “Dilbert” was dropped from many major publications after pointing out the lunacy of such policies. There’s no doubt its culture-shaping commentary will be missed by many that enjoyed the subtle humor. What is not so subtle, however, is the ESG movement, which has used the Left’s fear-driven, systemic cancel culture to trigger major workplace policy changes and squeeze the syndication outlets for popular cultural figures like Dilbert.

But why should you care about what happens to successful cartoonists or in corporate boardrooms?

Because it’s not stopping there — the ESG movement is set on taking over culture and business to control working Americans through its radical and at times bizarre scoring system, which punishes or rewards people based on their race, sexual orientation, carbon footprint, or wokeness.

Small business owners, investors and consumers are the real targets of this rage against our culture and normal business practices. The ESG scorekeepers are looking closely at everything we do to identify “victims” and “oppressors.” Think of it as an alternative accounting system using social media and corporate governance to punish those citizens and businesses that don’t fit into the Left’s woke ideological vision for the future.

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If you don’t comply, they can work to drive away your customers, dry up your capital and publicly shame you.

Need a fresh example?

In a House Financial Services committee hearing last week, Rep. Rashida Tlaib asked CEOs of major banks whether they would go along with her ESG agenda and commit to stop funding fossil fuels. Unsurprisingly, they all declined and J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon even admitted that her plan “would be the road to Hell for America.” Rep. Al Green followed up and asked the CEOs whether they believed their banks had done enough to “atone” for their part in slavery.

Earlier in September, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called for credit card companies to start categorizing purchases consumers make at gun stores. Soon after, companies like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express announced that they would fall in line and start tracking purchases. This could essentially result in the creation of a de facto gun registry, maintained by private companies, that progressives could use to target law-abiding gun owners.

On Sept. 19, the corporate communications company, Twilio, announced that it would be laying off 11% of its workforce. Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson of course clarified that these layoffs would be made through an “Anti-Racist” lens. Under ESG policies, companies like Twilio will be rewarded for considering race, not merit, when making personnel decisions.

While this is just one of the early examples of woke governance policies, there will be plenty of other examples in businesses and companies of all sizes.

Dilbert was right; this is absurd, just not funny. So what can be done?

Over a dozen states, including Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee have already fought back by protecting their states’ pensions, investments and contracts, but more needs to be done to counter the ESG movement. The federal government must also be kept in check with progressives like Tlaib hell-bent on turning this into federal policy and President Joe Biden’s bureaucracy trying to use the Securities and Exchange Commission to do just that.

Whether you are Adams or an average American looking to make an honest living, ESG hurts everyone. Citizens and CEOs alike need to call out ESG when they see it, and unite to reject its implementation from the boardroom down to the factory floor.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Cuba)


Protests Erupt In Cuba As Communist Government Fails To Restore Electricity Post-Ian

ALEXANDER PEASE
CONTRIBUTOR
October 01, 2022

Cuban citizens picketed against the nation’s Communist government in Havana on Friday amid a reported failure to restore electricity in Hurricane Ian’s wake.

Protestors banged on pots and pans around the Cuban capitol and were reportedly agitated with the widespread power outages in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Reuters reported.

The hurricane reportedly caused Cuba’s power grid to collapse, Reuters continued. The hurricane also razed through residential areas and destroyed a vast amount of farmland.

Protestors expressed discontent with the fact that widespread power outages were impacting the country three days after Ian tore through the Caribbean island.

When protests erupted Thursday night, the state experienced a total blackout as all communications via both cellphone and landline were shut down.

As the protests continued into the day Friday, multiple factions of Cubans gathered throughout Havana in areas where electricity had not been turned back on yet.

One picketer, Havana-based Jorge Luis Cruz, banged on pot and told Reuters that “All my food is rotten. Why? Because we don’t have electricity.”

“This isn’t working: Enough of this,” Cruz continued, according to the outlet, which also noted that food, fuel and medicine were all hard to come by even before the storm.

Pot banging is a common form of protest in the Latin American world but is “rarely employed” in Communist Cuba, Reuters noted.

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Cruz stated that his family was wary of him protesting out of concern that Communist authorities may take him to jail. “Let them take me,” he asserted in response.

Another protestor, Tiare Rodriguez, lamented to Reuters “We still don’t have light, and no one tells us why,” according to the report.

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“Our food is going to waste. Our children’s milk has been lost. Who will replace it?” Rodriguez asked. “No one.”

“Havana today has more than 50% of its grid recovered, and about 60% of customers have electricity,” Cuban Communist party head Luis Antonio Torres claimed on a state-run television broadcast.

Citizens voicing political dissent in Cuba is reportedly rare, though the recent protests have reportedly remained peaceful. according to Reuters.

The most recent major anti-government demonstrations that took place in Cuba resulted in over 1,000 arrests. Many were jailed by the government citing crimes like vandalism, assault and even sedition.

Even Cuba’s more affluent residents protested a lack of power as around 100 people gathered at a Communist party office in a comparatively well-off Havana neighborhood called Vedado, Reuters reported.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

New Democrat-Backed Public Safety Tips Urge NYC Business Owners Not To Call Police

ALYSSA BLAKEMORE
CONTRIBUTOR
October 01, 2022
6:17 PM ET
FONT SIZE:

A public safety resources poster released Thursday by Democratic leaders urges small business owners in the New York City to consider alternative tools and resources, rather than calling on police for help.

Queens Councilwoman Tiffany Cabán tweeted the newly crafted resource sheet, designed to equip merchants “with better ways of solving problems than simply summoning police every time a challenge arises.” Caban campaigned on a defund the police platform, calling for the disbanding of the NYPD and redirection of billions to alternate “people and service providers.”

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The poster, crafted by both Cabán and New York Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, counsels local businesses to call 311 to request a street outreach team if encountering homelessness outside their establishments. Small business owners are also advised to employ specific strategies for deescalating potential conflicts, including the “Five ‘Ds’ of Upstander Intervention.” “Say ‘no,’ ‘stop,’ or ‘that is not okay,'” the tip sheet suggests.

The same day the progress leaders promoted the poster’s release, a New York EMS lieutenant was brutally stabbed to death in the same borough Cabán represents. A 24-year veteran of the fire department, Alison Russo-Elling died “in a barbaric and completely unprovoked attack,” the Caller reported at the time.

Long Island restaurant owner Giana Cerbone was flabbergasted at the recommendations, the New York Post reported. “Are you kidding me?! … Who does she want us to call, Ghostbusters?!,” she said, according to the outlet.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

EXCLUSIVE: ‘Astonishing’: Watchdog Sues Biden Admin For Records On Trump Law Targeting Illicit Drugs That Took Years To Put In Place

Daily Caller News Foundation

GABE KAMINSKY
INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER
October 01, 2022

The Functional Government Initiative (FGI), a watchdog group, is suing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to obtain records related to a Trump-era law that intends to stop drugs from coming into the U.S. en masse, according to a complaint.

Former President Donald Trump in 2018 signed The Synthetics Trafficking & Overdose Prevention (STOP) Act, which DHS took years to implement.

“With each passing day, more and more Americans lose their battle with addiction while Secretary Mayorkas and his senior leadership prioritize the open border and censorship of Americans,” said Pete McGinnis, spokesman for FGI.

A watchdog group is suing the Biden administration for records they believe will shed light on why federal officials slow-walked the implementation of a 2018 law aimed at stopping the flow of illicit drugs into the U.S.

Former President Donald Trump in October 2018 signed The Synthetics Trafficking & Overdose Prevention (STOP) Act, which requires the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to report foreign package data to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and intends to fight drug trafficking. Though the law appears to have been implemented in March 2021, the Functional Government Initiative (FGI) is suing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and CBP to obtain the records, according to a Sept. 9 complaint obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

FGI’s lawsuit relates to its February Freedom of Information Act requests to DHS and CBP, which sought communications between officials on the STOP Act and its implementation. The watchdog has received no documents and CBP claimed it did not have records pertaining to the law’s implementation.

The STOP Act holds USPS must use advanced electronic data (AED) on foreign packages starting Jan. 1, 2021, according to the USPS inspector general. AED refers to data given to CBP that would provide officials information on both shippers and recipients as well as the contents of packages.

CBP was given an October 2019 deadline to implement STOP Act regulations. However, CBP failed to meet its deadline, the agency said in a December 2020 congressional hearing.

In the 2020 hearing, Republican Ohio Sen. Rob Portman pressed CBP and USPS on why it missed the deadline. Thomas Overacker, CBP’s executive director of Cargo and Conveyance Security, said: “I’m not going to offer any excuses.”

CBP in March 2021 issued its interim rule regulations on using AED’s on foreign packages. Then, Portman and Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Amy Klobuchar demanded answers in December 2021 from DHS, USPS and the State Department as to why CBP officials told the lawmakers over 130 countries have been given waivers from putting AED on packages.

The law appears to have been implemented but FGI is seeking to uncover why there was a delay. It is unclear what countries the lawmakers were referring to and whether or not they still have waivers.

“The inability of DHS to finalize regulations and fully implement a bill that would help stop the flow of illegal opioids into the United States is astonishing and frankly disappointing,” FGI spokesman Pete McGinnis told the DCNF.

“With each passing day, more and more Americans lose their battle with addiction while Secretary Mayorkas and his senior leadership prioritize the open border and censorship of Americans.”

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WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 21: The Department of Homeland Security seal on the podium used by acting Secretary Kevin McAleenan as he announces new rules about how migrant children and families are treated in federal custody at the Ronald Reagan Building August 21, 2019 in Washington, DC.

Fentanyl and the importation of other drugs across the border has increasingly become an issue for the U.S., with CBP seizing 913,000 pounds of drugs in 2021, data shows. Overdose deaths surged 31% between 2019 and 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

CBP has also already seized over 600,000 pounds of drugs in 2022 and a record amount of fentanyl in 2022, according to agency data.

The STOP Act’s passage followed a congressional investigation into drug trafficking and how synthetic drugs like fentanyl make their way from China to the U.S. through USPS mail. Portman and Democratic Delaware Sen. Tom Carper led the probe.

Republican Florida Sen. Rick Scott wrote a letter in April 2022 to CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus telling the official CBP’s interim final rule on AED’s “still leaves concerning loopholes.” The senator said the rule has delayed and that China has still been able to ship packages without AED.

“CBP should focus on ensuring Communist China fully complies with the law,” said Scott. “There has been ample time to for countries to prepare and comply with the law and the IFR should reflect that.”

DHS and CBP did not respond to requests for comment.

“This is the epitome of dysfunctional government,” McGinnis also told the DCNF. “The public deserves answers on why implementation of the STOP Act is not a priority and when we can expect them to start recognizing the importance of fighting the opioid crisis.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

'We Own the Science': WEF Member Reveals How Global Elites Work with Google to Censor Critics​

This is a chilling revelation that sheds light on the globalists' unethical efforts to regulate citizens' speech in so-called 'democracies.'

Kyle Becker
10 hr ago

The U.N. Secretary for Global Communications Melissa Fleming, a World Economic Forum member, openly revealed how global elites work with Google and other digital platforms to censor information they deem to be politically undesirable.

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"You know, we partnered with Google, for example. If you Google climate change, you will, at the top of your search, you will get all kinds of U.N. resources," Fleming revealed. "We started this partnership when we were shocked to see that when we'd googled climate change, we were getting incredibly distorted information right at the top."

"So, we are becoming much more proactive," she went on. "You know, we own the science and we think that the world, you know, should know it, and the platforms themselves also do. But again... it's a huge, huge challenge that I think all sectors of society need to be very active."

This is a chilling revelation that sheds light on the globalists' unethical efforts to regulate citizens' speech in so-called 'democracies.' It is impossible to imagine that the U.N. is stopping with 'climate change,' and its agenda certainly includes all manner of topics, including elections and Covid-19 policies.

It should be noted that climate alarmism has been challenged by numerous scientists, who have found that there is no "crisis." A group of almost 1200 of the world’s leading scientists and scholars has signed a document declaring that “there is no climate emergency.”

The World Climate Declaration states that climate science “should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific.”

“Scientists should openly address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures,” the declaration reads.

The independent policy foundation was founded in 2019 by Dutch emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and Dutch science journalist Marcel Crok.

Apocalyptic global warming predictions have been debunked so many times at this point that it is almost laughable. Thus, the globalist elites at the U.N. and the WEF undoubtedly feel that the only way to protect the climate hoax is to censor its critics.

The WEF member’s revelations about the global effort to censor criticism of alleged "climate science" accompanies reports the federal government has unconstitutionally carried out similar programs in the United States.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

American Energy Bills Are Set To Soar This Winter

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 05:25 PM
Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

The global energy crisis may finally be coming to America.

As Europe scrambles to secure LNG supplies, American companies are racing to lend a hand.

With more American LNG flowing to Europe, the United States may be facing increased electricity bills this winter.

Domestic oil production remains nearly a million barrels per day (BPD) below the monthly record level set just before the Covid-19 pandemic caused production to plunge. The all-time monthly high for oil production took place in November 2019 at 13.0 million BPD (Source). The all-time annual high was also in 2019, when U.S. production averaged 12.3 million BPD.

Current U.S. oil production is 12.1 million BPD, while the average for the year so far is 11.9 million BPD. That is on pace to be the second-highest ever annual U.S. oil production.

Natural gas production experienced a similar plunge due to Covid, but production has bounced all the way back.

Monthly natural gas production hit an all-time high of 3.008 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in December 2019 (Source). Monthly production subsequently fell below 2.7 Tcf as the pandemic began to impact the markets, but production has steadily climbed back.

The previous natural gas production record in December 2019 was essentially tied in December 2021, but average monthly production this year has exceeded all other years. In fact, average 2021 monthly production of 2.85 Tcf beat the previous 2019 average monthly record of 2.82 Tcf. However, the monthly average through the first half of 2022 was even higher at 2.89 Tcf.

I made this point during a recent interview on radio station WBEN out of Buffalo, New York. The host wondered why — with natural gas production at an all-time high — heating bills are projected to surge through the winter across the northeast?

It’s because natural gas demand is also at an all-time high.

According to the 2022 BP Statistical Review, global natural gas demand last year reached a new all-time high, surpassing the previous record set in 2019 by 3.3%.

Demand has increased primarily because of coal-fired power plants switching to natural gas.

But another development over the past decade has changed the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas markets.

There was a time when what happened in the rest of the world didn’t impact the U.S. natural gas markets all that much. We consumed what we produced, and imported a bit. Because the U.S. market was essentially isolated from the rest of the world, large price dislocations could occur. Natural gas prices in Japan and Europe would frequently be several times higher than they were in the U.S.

But as natural gas production ramped up in the U.S., companies began to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. Over the past decade, the U.S. became the world’s fastest-growing LNG exporter, and is on a pace to become the world’s largest LNG exporter this year.

The implications are that the global LNG market now impacts U.S. natural gas prices. And that market has been upended by Europe’s needs.

Russia is a major supplier of natural gas for Europe, but those gas exports have plummeted as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Thus, Europe is out trying to secure natural gas supplies for the winter.

American companies are exporting as much LNG as they can to Europe, and that is impacting U.S. prices in a way it wouldn’t have a decade ago.

That is a big part of why Americans are facing steep heating bills this winter.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

and

Biden Admin Showered Millions On Government's 'Misinformation' Czars After 2020 Election

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 05:00 PM

The Biden administration awarded millions of federal dollars to members of four private groups that worked with the departments of Homeland Security (DHS) and State during the 2020 election to censor social media posts they deemed 'misinformation' - according to an in-depth analysis of documents obtained by Just the News.

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The four groups in question - Stanford Internet Observatory (SIO), the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab, and social media analytics firm Graphika - comprise the "Election Integrity Partnership," which exists as a 'concierge-like' service for federal agencies such as Homeland's Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and State's Global Engagement Center to flag online content for censorship or monitoring by Big Tech using a "ticket" system.

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Unsurprisingly, the head of Stanford's Internet Observatory is a Clinton donor who previously served as Facebook's Head of Security - while the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public is largely funded by the Knight Foundation, whose board exclusively contributes to Demorat or Neocon entities (a few examples here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here).

Meanwhile, the Biden administration empowered three liberal groups to file tickets seeking censorship; the Democratic National Committee, Common Cause and the NAACP.

In its own after-action report on the 2020 election, the consortium boasted it flagged more than 4,800 URLs — shared nearly 22 million times on Twitter alone — for social media platforms. Their staff worked 12-20 hour shifts from September through mid-November 2020, with "monitoring intensif[ying] significantly" the week before and after Election Day.

The tickets sought removal, throttling and labeling of content that raised questions about mail-in ballot integrity, Arizona's "Sharpiegate," and other election integrity issues of concern to conservatives.

The consortium achieved a success rate in 2020 that would be enviable for baseball batters: Platforms took action on 35% of flagged URLs, with 21% labeled, 13% removed and 1% soft-blocked, meaning users had to reject a warning to see them. The partnership couldn't determine how many were downranked. -Just the News

First Amendment be damned

The operation falls under a legal gray-area, in that the First Amendment prohibits Congress from passing laws that abridge free speech - while courts have ruled that this extends to federal agencies funded by the legislative branch.

"The government knows that they cannot do it by themselves because of the First Amendment of the Constitution, which prohibits it," said Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA), a a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, in a statement to JTN. "And then they decide to partner with another entity, a private entity. a social media platform or university. "

"And then they say, 'Hey, we're going to feed you information that we think is disinformation, or we want to be disinformation. And then you go ahead and you do the de-platforming. You label it as misinformation, or disinformation.'"

And according to the report, participants in the censorship consortium were acutely aware that their effort strayed into uncharted legal territory.

For example, Stanford's Renee DiResta (who previously worked for a firm that created a 'false flag' against Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore) noted in a 2021 CISA Cybersecurity Summit video that the effort faced "unclear legal authorities" and "very real First Amendment questions."

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Also, we're getting the band back together (with several improvements) for the midterms — working with a range of collaborators to address rumors, misinformation, and disinformation around election processes and procedures: The Election Integrity Partnership in 2022: Our Work Ahead — Election Integrity Partnership. Follow @2020Partnership.

— Kate Starbird (@katestarbird) August 7, 2022
Former State Department official Mike Benz told Just the News that the censorship consortium was the largest federally-funded censorship operation he had ever seen - and a precursor to the Disinformation Governance Board, which was scrapped after public outcry over the highly-partisan and Orwellian nature of the organization. Benz runs the nonprofit, Foundation for Freedom Online, which advocates for free speech globally while monitoring US censorship.

"If you trace the chronology, you find that there was actually 18 months' worth of institutional work to create this very apparatus that we now know played a significant role in the censorship of millions of posts for the 2020 election and has ambitious sights for 2022 and 2024," he told Just the News. "Amazingly, there are now so many Ministry of Truth functionaries within the Department of Homeland Security."

"There are so many Ministry of Truth tasks, so many Ministry of Truth points of contact, so many different Ministry of Truth, policies for whether to remove something, reduce it, slap a fact checking label on it."

Rep. Clyde, meanwhile, says he expects Republicans to investigate the consortium next year if they regain control of Congress - and that he's drafting a piece of legislation called the 'Free Speech Defense Act' to address censorship issues.

"This bill would prevent the federal government from labeling anything through a proxy entity, like a social media company, as disinformation, labeling it as misinformation or labeling it as true," he told JTN. "And then it would also give an opportunity for those people who have been injured by it to take legal action."

Censoring right-leaning media

The consortium didn't just target blogs and individual social media users - the censorship czars also went after news and opinion organizations such as the New York Post, Fox News, Just the News and SeanHannity.com (ZeroHedge included).

The partnership's members published the 292-page public report in March 2021, though the most recent version is dated June 15, 2021. The launch webinar featured former CISA Director Christopher Krebs, "who led the effort to secure electoral infrastructure and the response to mis- and disinformation during the election period."

View: https://youtu.be/uKkaZI-EiiQ
1:33:35 min

During the launch webinar, the Atlantic Council's Emerson Brooking said they wanted to stop the "amplification and legitimation" of "far-right influencers [who] would be doing all they could to try to catch the eye of a Fox News producer," making it likely that President Trump, "the social media death star," would see their content.

Government entities were involved in real-time chats with the partnership and social media platforms over specific content under review.

A chat screenshot in the report shows an unidentified government partner rejecting the Sharpiegate claim that "sharpies aren't read at all" by ballot-counting machines, and a platform provider responding that it was now reviewing those claims. -JTN

"I think we were pretty effective in getting [platforms] to act on things they haven't acted on before," said SIO founder Stamos.

Meanwhile, the censorship partners all received federal grants from the Biden administration over the next two years.

In August 2021, the National Science Foundation awarded the Stanford and UW projects $3 million "to study ways to apply collaborative, rapid-response research to mitigate online disinformation."

Octant Data (aka Graphika), received nearly $3 million from the Department of Defense right after the 2020 election for unspecified "research on cross-platform detection to counter malign influence" - with almost 2 million more awarded in fall 2021 for "research on co-citation network mapping" to track sources that are cited together.

The Atlantic Council, which hosted then-VP Biden in 2011 for a keynote address, has received $4.7 million in grants since 2021.

View: https://youtu.be/CfSu7zDiou4
24:51 min

Those figures don't include the federal contracts for each partnership member. Graphika/Octant, for example, received nearly $100,000 in 2021 for its "Contagion Monitor" surveillance and services that use "advanced network science to analyze PRC [Chinese] influence."

UW's project, SIO and Graphika also collaborated on the Virality Project, which tracks and analyzes purported "COVID-19 vaccine misinformation and social media narratives related to vaccine hesitancy."

The government "consultation" on censorship stands in stark contrast to recent media coverage of SIO and Graphika.

The Washington Post said an August report by the two organizations exposed years of "covert campaigns" to promote American interests abroad by fake social media accounts, which Facebook and Twitter had repeatedly taken down for alleged U.S. military ties. The Pentagon is reportedly auditing its "internet information operation" in response.

Graphika and its cadre of former U.S. intelligence agents was the subject of a critical profile in February by The Washington Standard, which dubbed it "The Deep State's Beard for Controlling the Information Age."

The report also noted Graphika's work on the election partnership with the other organizations, and that SIO's founder Stamos is an adviser to NATO's Collective Cybersecurity Center of Excellence.

The Department of Homeland Security, CISA, Election Integrity Partnership and its two leaders, the Stanford Internet Observatory and UW's Center for an Informed Public, didn't respond to queries about the new scrutiny.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"The Impact Has Already Been Catastrophic": Hedge Fund CIO Says "This Crash, Don't Look For Central Banks To Save Us"​

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 02:55 PM
By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Desk-mates
“What will it take for the Fed to pause?”
I asked, early morning, screens aglow, the smell of impending policy-maker panic drifting across our trading floor like freshly brewed coffee. We were discussing relentless dollar strength, what it means, where it leads. “It’s harder to answer in this cycle, because I don’t really think that dollar strength is specifically because of the Fed, at least not completely,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation-strategies portfolio-manager, brilliant. “It’s the logical consequence of the QE bubble bursting. Fed tightening is part of it, sure, but it’s not like when the Fed pauses all the root cause of the problems will go away.”

“One thing I’ve learned about market collapses is that what gets you into them won’t get you out of them, and the people who rode the wave on the way up will not be the ones stepping in to buy the bottom,” continued Lindsay. “That’s why, this time, I wouldn’t be looking to central banks to save us,” she said. “Some of this is also because, in a high debt, inflationary world, the US is just a better credit. In this crisis, markets are going to go after sovereign credits. And remember, pricing default risk is about combining default probability and recovery rate.”

“Sovereign nations represent the ultimate collateral free asset,”
said Lindsay. “They’re not like corporations, where you can take the plane or factory in bankruptcy; you can’t show up to a nation’s Treasury and seize assets. With sovereign nations, you can’t easily calculate a recovery rate, so it’s all about default probability. For countries whose debt is denominated in currency they can create, default is usually considered very remote. Because it’s not about the ability to pay, they always have the money to pay, it’s about willingness to pay.”

“The only reason a country wouldn’t print money to pay their debt is the social and political costs of depreciating the currency by printing money becomes greater than the cost of defaulting on the debt.
The dollar is strong, and in a way it’s a good reserve currency, because the US is economically the least currency-sensitive economy in the world. The US is the ultimate large, closed economy.” According to World Bank data on openness - a measure of an economy’s dependence on trade - the US is at the far extreme.

“The US produces large amounts of food and energy and has a diverse domestic services and manufacturing economy. Americans rarely notice even large currency fluctuations and it has minimal impact on inflation.” The UK, by comparison, is substantially more open than the US and it’s much more dependent on the rest of the world for necessities like food and energy. “By contrast, the average Brit is very aware of sterling weakness and currency fluctuations impact inflation more directly. The point where the UK decides the cost of currency weakness to pay creditors is higher than the cost of default is much closer than it is in the US.”

“There is a temptation for people to now wonder when the Fed will pivot and make these problems all go away,” said Lindsay. “But it’s important to first understand why central bankers did QE in the first place. Central bankers can only directly control nominal interest rates but it’s real interest rates that impact the economy. When inflation is falling, if the central bank can’t cut rates more quickly than inflation is falling then real rates rise despite their rate cuts. Higher real rates are even more disinflationary and it’s possible that central banks lose control in a sort of deflationary spiral.”

Negative nominal interest rates are not normal. They are a sign of a deeply dysfunctional market. No long-term investor would ever buy them except under duress because they’re guaranteed to lose money. But this fear of a deflationary spiral caused central banks to take yields negative despite the market issues they created. There were concerns about the size of the purchases and that they’d create too much inflation. Central banks rationalized that they knew how to fight inflation and would do so if the time came. I think they grossly underestimated the amount of market distortion they were creating.”

“The moment has come for central bankers to tighten, unwind their market distortions, and the impact has already been catastrophic,” said Lindsay. Year-to-date, the drawdown in the market cap of US bond and equity markets has been over $57 trillion. “And central banks aren’t done yet.

Inflation changes the calculus, and many central banks don’t have the option of returning to QE anymore. Remember, they don’t control real rates. So every day they wait to fight inflation, real rates remain too low, the currency weakens creating more inflation, pushing real rates even lower and it becomes an inflationary cycle.”

Anecdote:
“I’ve seen a few bubbles in my career,” said Lindsay Politi, our inflation-strategies portfolio-manager. “I think what’s easy to miss if you haven’t seen one before is how reasonable the valuations seem at the peak,” she continued. “It’s never just speculators pumping up prices, there’s always an entire academic construct justifying the valuations.
  • Dow 36,000 was published months before the dot com bubble burst.”
  • AIG asserted that they couldn’t imagine losing a single dollar in CDS months before the Bear Sterns bankruptcy.
“I don’t say this to pick on anyone but to point out that most smart people rarely see them coming.” It all makes perfect sense until it doesn’t.

And a lot of people don’t even realize they’re experiencing a bubble burst until it’s almost over. Bubbles bursting are not just about inflated prices falling, they’re about the recognition that an entire way of thinking was wrong.

“QE, like many justifications for ridiculous valuations before it, was a bubble. And what we’re experiencing now is a bubble bursting.” A 30+ trillion-dollar bubble, by far the largest in history.

“It’s important to remember that the bursting of a bubble takes a long time to play out. It may feel fast and chaotic at various points in the process, but it isn’t really. Look at 2008. Everyone thinks of Lehman’s Bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, as the big catalyst for that crisis, but the S&P 500 had peaked the previous November. Bear Sterns failed on March 13th, 2008. From the Friday before Lehman’s bankruptcy to the end of that month, the S&P was only down 7%. The real weakness was in October with a local low in November.”

The final bottom wasn’t until March of the next year. “The bubble was bursting before Lehman Brothers.” That was just the large cathartic event that caught our attention, ignited our imagination. “And even after that it took months for the market to bottom. Markets don’t clear imbalances instantaneously. So we should be preparing ourselves for a marathon, not a sprint.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Carbon Rationing, CBDCs And Sound Money​

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 02:05 PM
Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

Ironically, the push toward carbon-rationing and CBDCs is based on the same insight by sound money advocates: Fiat is worthless.

Let me tell you a parable about value. It’s about how the “thing” that everybody assumes has value can change over time, and by the time it changes, people have completely lost touch with the original measure of value.

In the early 00’s, easyDNS was getting ready to move our servers out of our physical office and into an actual data colocation center in downtown Toronto.

When we got our first cabinet, we were billed in terms of how much rackspace we were using, and what our bandwidth consumption was. In those days, the servers were trying to pack themselves into smaller enclosures and compress the data payloads to reduce bandwidth. There were 2U boxes, the bleeding edge stuff coming out was 1U, and if you were a dinosaur from late-90’s, you might have some legacy 4U servers, which were costing you a fortune to rack.

What was missing from that equation?

Power. There were no power costs, or if there were, they were negligible to the point where I can’t even remember having them. The power costs were just built into the price of the rackspace and bandwidth.

Fast forward 20 years, and it’s inverted completely. The number one cost when you provision new cabinet space these days is typically your power commit. Then bandwidth and transport. Now the rackspace is practically a throw-in. In many cases, what people think of as “servers” today are just virtualized images that don’t even take up any physical space.

What changed? The world did.

Who cares? Mostly nobody.

What I mean by this, is nobody thought that switching to charging for power consumption instead of rackspace was a big deal. The overall economics of the space changed, and as a result so did the pricing model. In other words, the underlying value commodity switched from Thing A (physical space) to Thing B (power). Other than adapting to it, nobody really cared.

The same thing happened with “money” -and it’s about to happen again

Money used to be backed by gold (Thing A) and then by a national currency exchangeable for gold (Thing B). In practical day-to-day terms, most people didn’t care and continued to use whatever they had in their wallets for currency. Thing B even became the global reserve currency.

Then in 1971, it switched again and that reserve currency could no longer be exchanged for gold (Thing A) while Thing B would henceforth be …nothing. It was supposed to be temporary.

People continued to use the reserve currency to denominate exchange and found that using nothing to back the value of the currency actually made life better, for awhile. At least for those who were in close proximity to the people who were able to mint more of this new “nothing money” out of thin air (they’ve come to be known as Cantillionaires).

Since all the other currencies were backed by the reigning reserve currency, this meant that they were now all backed by Thing B as well. And Thing B was nothing.

There were people who sounded the alarm that the the new Thing B (nothingness) was unsuitable for backing a currency, let alone a global reserve asset. Over time, they warned, it would create ever-increasing wealth inequality, blow up serial asset bubbles followed by ever worsening financial crises and probably end in a hyper-inflationary blow off.

They were dismissed as cranks and conspiracy theorists. In more recent times, right-wing extremists or Kremlin stooges.

Even so, as ignorant and retrograde as these people were and still are, today even mainstream commentators and anointed experts realize we’ve more-or-less run out of runway for having a global reserve currency backed by nothingness.

The fiat currency era is essentially over.

Goldbugs knew it wouldn’t last and invested in gold for centuries. They still do today. Now there is also Bitcoin, which captures the same mechanism: in this case using energy to back currency.

But globalists and central bankers are in a conundrum.

There is the realization that the fiat era, backing money with nothing is about to hit the wall.

But even central bankers know they can’t print energy out of thin air. It would render Cantillionism obsolete overnight, and we can’t have that.

What is needed is some basis to backstop that currency that has some kind of value, a perceived scarcity or cap attached to it, in order to reestablish faith and legitimacy in the “money”. Further, it needs to be something that can be controlled and distributed from within the central bank / state mechanism – it must be entirely outside the influence of market forces.

Finally, it has to have an ideological pillar that can be used to shape public opinion around its acceptance.

The New Thing B is Carbon​

The last legs of the failing monetary system will see another of these transitions where the value medium shifts from Thing A to Thing B.

There will at least be an attempt to implement one. Whether they get it out the door before the monetary end-game plays out remains to be seen. The destruction of the current system has been so accelerated by the ubiquitous mishandling of the Covid pandemic by policy-makers that the current system may come off the rails entirely before a new one can be implemented (subscribers of my premium newsletter have been getting our coverage on CBDCs and how far behind the curve nation states and central banks are in actually developing them. This why I think, ultimately, they try to go with something that already exists, like WEFereum Ethereum).

But the plan from on high is that we will go from pricing goods and services based on their input costs of production and distribution (Thing A), to pricing privileges and consumption based on their perceived carbon emissions (Thing B).



We’ve all seen the latest think piece out of the World Economic Forum, characteristically shrouded in their benevolent-sounding euphemisms, pushing for individual carbon rations and justifying it that because the world’s population sat still for, and complied with, global lockdowns. They suggest that the plebes are ready to accept having their individual carbon footprints metered by unelected bureaucrats and opaque AI-driven algos.

Inclusivity of citizens is becoming the most important element of success or failure in the journey towards sustainability. Community-led initiatives can make a significant contribution towards sustainability, increase resilience and social cohesion. There have been numerous examples of personal carbon allowance programs in discussions for the last two decades, however they had limited success due to a lack of social acceptance, political resistance, and a lack of awareness and fair mechanism for tracking “My Carbon” emissions.

The WEF piece linked to a 2021 paper by Nature that mapped out Personal Carbon Allowances, and the impetus to define one’s “fair share” of carbon emissions and the “setting of acceptable levels of carbon emissions”.



When you set aside (for a moment) the totalitarian implications of this, it does make a certain amount of sense. In its own way, it proves the point that hard money advocates have been making for decades, if not centuries: fiat money is valueless.

Beneath all this climate alarmism driving the move to carbon rationing, there lies an implicit admission, conscious or not, that for money to be viable it has to denominate an economic trade-off.

You cannot print value ex-nihilo. In so doing these last 50 years (since the commencement of the fiat era in earnest), we’ve gotten to a world where the price of capital – and thus, time, if you read Edward Chancellor’s latest book (and you should) – is nominally zero, which collides with the reality of the finite (or with the laws of physics – as somebody like Doomberg would say).

The central bankers of the world made one big divide-by-zero error, and the result is what we actually see playing out across many dimensions, right now. Bitcoin and the coming CBDCs are both reacting to the same thing, but what’s different about them is who would be served by the adoption of one mechanism over the other.

What’s important to understand is that, similar to the Cantillion Effect, when the underpinnings of a monetary system transition from Thing A to Thing B, the outcomes are non-neutral. One example of this is the Gini Coefficient, which is a measure of wealth inequality.

In the chart below via @WTF_1971 we see how after a period of secular decline under the Bretton Woods system, it suddenly reversed and blasts off right at the inflection point where the global monetary system abandoned its last link to hard money (Thing A) and the fiat era began (Thing B).



Via @WTF_1971

All indications are that the coming CBDCs will be carbon-based, social credit schemes, and they are being promoted and implemented by the same vested interests who profited and consolidated unimaginable wealth throughout the prior 50 years of the fiat era – the Cantillionaires.

This path is ultimately doomed, because as I frequently point out, it seeks to extend an industrial era worldview (top down, centrally planned and linear), onto a new architecture: one that is decentralized, self- organizing, adaptive and non-linear.

Because it’s one iteration behind in the level of mental abstraction, it’s like breeding faster horses in an era of cars. No matter how good you get at it, you’re still playing the game on an obsolete playing field and will ultimately be unable to compete on the new one (if you’re wondering why I frequently reference the level of mental abstraction as being such a game changer that ensures the eventual supremacy of networks over nations, I refer you to a relatively obscure book by W R Clement called “Quantum Jump: A Survival Guide For the New Renaissance“).

The only advice I can offer for navigating the coming transition is to be as financially independent and resilient as possible. Do not allow yourself to become reliant on government entitlements and if you are now, figure out a way to end that reliance immediately. That these systems will become tightly coupled with CBDCs and carbon footprint rationing is a foregone conclusion.

You’re going to have to be ready for at least a transitionary period where the lifestyle choices you take for granted today will be priced in terms of carbon credits in the future. If you are reliant on government entitlements, get used to eating plant-based protein patties. If you aren’t, get ready to have to pay more for those Wagyu burgers. A lot more.

Hold as much of your wealth outside of the state run banking system as possible.

Bitcoin (off the exchanges, I also like Monero), hold gold, silver, and own cash-flow producing businesses, and multiple revenue streams. If you have a job, start a business on the side. If you own a business, start another one.

Start connecting with people and tribes who are opting out of the current system, because the one we’re in now is either going to come off the rails entirely or try to go full CCP in the near-term.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

OPEC+ To Cut Oil Output By As Much As 1.5 Million B/D On Wendesday To Reverse Price Drop

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 12:01 PM

First it was 500Kb/d, then 1 million. Now, according to both Bloomberg and the WSJ, OPEC+ will likely announce that it is slashing output by more than a million barrels per day when it meets this Wednesday in Vienna.

With the amicable days of fistbumps long gone...

... the larger-than-expected reduction will reflect the scale of concern that central banks are rushing to spark a global recession, which in turn is crippling oil demand and demanding a supply response. The dollar, which has hit record highs pretty much every day in Q3, has also weighed on prices.

That said, a final decision on the size of the cuts won’t be made until ministers meet, Bloomberg's sources said while the WSJ noted that because the ultimate decision will be hotly debated, the group decided to meet in person in Vienna on Wednesday for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Other options being considered include a smaller reduction of 500,000 barrels a day or as much as 1.5 million barrels a day.

The Journal's Summer Said noted that the option to cut more than 1 million barrels a day is backed by Russia, the group’s biggest non-OPEC partner. But the cartel’s biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, has some reservations on the size of the cut, the delegates said.

This week's cut will come after OPEC+ agreed last month to reduce oil production for the first time in more than a year, saying it would cut about 100,000 barrels a day amid fears of a global recession. The move ended an 18-month era of production increases for OPEC+. The group slowly brought crude back onto the market after a sharp cut during the pandemic, when demand plunged.

Brent crude soared above $125 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. It’s since dropped to $85 sparked by Biden's desperate drain of the US strategic petroleum reserve meant to avoid a crash for Democrats at the midterms, and tempering the spectacular windfall enjoyed by the Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other members of the coalition.

The 23-nation alliance is scheduled to meet on Wednesday at its headquarters in Vienna, OPEC’s secretariat said a statement on Saturday. The group has been meeting on-line on a monthly basis and wasn’t expected to arrange an in-person gathering until at least the end of this year.

In recent weeks, banks such as JPMorgan said OPEC+ may need to lower output by least 500,000 barrels a day to stabilize prices. RBC's Helima Croft said the group may opt for a cut twice that large. It now appears that the final cut will be even bigger.

“I suspect that they might not want to go in person for a minor move,” Croft said.

Whether it is 1 million or 1.5 million, one should consider that in just a few weeks Biden's puppetmasters will finally stop the SPR's daily 1 million barrel drain, effectively translating into an output cut of as much as 2.5 million barrels. Needless to say, that will send the price of oil soaring, will end the recent string of declining gas prices and stun the already reeling US consumer with sharply higher prices at the pump just in time for the recession and the mass layoffs that will follow once the midterm elections are over.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Credit Suisse CEO Touts 'Strong Liquidity Position' As Market Panics Over Soaring Default Swaps

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 11:11 AM

For the second straight week, Credit Suisse's new CEO Ulrich Koerner sought to reassure investors (and in fact all global market participants) that the troubled Swiss bank is 'safe'.

While conceding that there is a lot of uncertainty and speculation both within and outside the bank, the CEO said the bank is at a "critical moment" as it prepares for its latest overhaul.

Koerner told employees not to confuse the “day-to-day” stock price performance with the Swiss firm's "strong capital base and liquidity position."

The market - simply put - does not believe him as the credit markets are pricing in the chance of default at its highest level since the peak of the Great Financial Crisis...



And it appears counterparties to the bank's derivatives transactions are aggressively hedging their exposure to the Swiss bank's possible failure to perform...



The bank - which has been hit with a corporate spying scandal, a record trading loss, shuttered investment funds and a deluge of lawsuits in recent years - is due to announce a major new strategic plan on Oct. 27 and as we recently noted has said that reports of a 'bad bank' split off to hold its high-risk (read low-quality) assets are "categorically false."

In August, Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that paring back the investment bank while growing other business lines and strengthening its capital rations would leave a US$4bn hole in the group's capital position.

"Running down other parts of the investment bank and selling smaller businesses across divisions could help over time, but this would likely come too late to avoid an equity raise," wrote Deutsche analysts Benjamin Goy and Sharath Kumar Ramanathan.

As Bloomberg reports, Credit Suisse’s market capitalization dropped to around 10 billion Swiss francs ($10.1 billion), meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders.

The market value was above 30 billion francs as recently as March 2021.

Credit Suisse executives have noted that the firm’s 13.5% CET1 capital ratio at June 30 was in the middle of the planned range of 13% to 14% for 2022.

The firm’s 2021 annual report said that its international regulatory minimum ratio was 8%, while Swiss authorities required a higher level of about 10%.

So CS has a "strong capital base and liquidity position"? Like reports that "Bear Stearns was not in trouble", "Lehman is well capitalized", and "subprime was contained"?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyk12Wf_TeQ&feature=emb_rel_pause
26:11 min

Finally, as Larry MacDonald writes at The Bear Traps Report: Credit Suisse is NO Lehman, but it´s on par with Bear Stearns.

“We are well capitalized” comments from Alan Schwartz and Ulrich Koerner are 14 years apart but ominously appear nearly identical.


Must not forget, stocks puked lower into the Bear Stearns rescue and rallied 23% (NDX) on the follow. It is time to connect the dots – we now have Paul Krugman, Jeremy Siegel very publicly chastising Powell, and Harvard´s Greg Mankiw writing an opinion piece screaming, the Fed has indeed overcooked the Porter House. Oh, by the way, our favorite Fed pawn, Timiraos was sharing Mankiw´s sentiment early Sunday morning. Hmmm.

It all comes down to risk-weighted assets.

When Lehman and Bear failed, their core capital - U.S. Treasuries - were NOT dropping like a stone. In the last twenty years, our global banking system has NEVER faced a one-two punch of interest rate risk and credit risk combined.

Can you imagine being a board member of Credit Suisse?
You take the Archegos and Greensill financial hits – then come war, an energy crisis-driven recession, and your foundation bedrock capital on the balance sheet, good old government bonds are dropping 10-30 points in a month. The CET1 ratio compares a bank's capital against its assets. Additional Tier 1 capital is composed of instruments that are not common equity. In the event of a crisis, equity is taken first from Tier 1. It´s a measurement of a bank's core equity capital, compared with its total risk-weighted assets.

With the declines in government bonds in Europe coupled with near certain recession risk – bank balance sheets look more like Credit “Swiss Cheese” than strong financial institutions.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

This Quarter Was Different: The Big Reversal

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 10:30 AM
Via Global Macro Monitor,

We’ve been all over the “Big Reset,” which is upending many things.

1664762559424.png
It’s disheartening to hear most of the Street analysts speak as if nothing has changed but prices.

"All things as we have known and have become comfortably numb with, such as zero interest rates, negative real interest rates, quantitative easing (digital money printing), [Chimerica, a placid labor market, trade and investment flows] and Pax Americana, [and central bank dominance of the U.S. bond market] are being upended and overturned.

Beware of recency bias, folks, as the global structural shifts and changes are now ubiquitous."
– GMM, Sep 23rd

Here’s an example of how markets are convulsing to the Big Reset.

“Painful Regime Change”

The third quarter will also get its place in the history books for one of the biggest reversals: It is the first quarter since 1938 that the S&P 500 Index closed in the red after gaining more than 10%.



All in all, 2022 is the year that reflects a “painful regime change,”
said Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist. – Bloomberg


Nowhere To Hide

Even during the Great Depression, bonds made money, but not in stagflation, including during the 1970s.



There has been nowhere to hide this year.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Dollar Strength & Global Currency Debasement

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 08:54 AM
Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Why are market participants scared of a strong dollar? Because for years there was a massive carry trade against the US dollar predicated on a bet that constantly printing currency and cutting rates would never create inflation. The world got used to betting on one thing -massive money supply growth- and the opposite -weak inflation-. Cheap money became expensive, as I explained in my book Escape from The Central Bank Trap.

The US dollar is not strong. The loss of purchasing power of the greenback is the largest of the past three decades.

1664762889296.png

The US dollar is only “strong” in relative terms against other currencies that are collapsing in a global currency debasement that comes after years of monetary excess.

The pound is not collapsing because of a misguided prime minister’s tax plan, it is collapsing alongside the yen, which saw the Bank of Japan intervene to try to stop the depreciation as well, the euro, the Swedish krona, the Norwegian, Danish krone, or most currencies.

In the past year until the closing of this article the US dollar index (DXY) has risen 19% and reached a twenty-year high and the yen is down 23% against the US dollar: The euro has fallen 15%, the pound 17%, the emerging market currency index also fell 14% and even in China the PBOC had to intervene, like the Bank of Japan or the Bank of England, to control a massive depreciation against the US dollar.

Welcome to the vacuum effect of the US dollar that we mentioned months ago.

In periods of complacency, the world’s central banks play at being the Federal Reserve without having the world’s reserve currency or the legal security and financial balance of the United States. Many massively increase money supply without paying attention to the global and local demand for their currency, and in addition, governments issue more U.S. dollar-denominated debt, hoping low rates will make the financing of huge deficits affordable.

Complacency builds and all asset classes see massive inflows and elevated valuations because money is cheap and abundant. A monster multi-trillion carry trade with many bets on the long side and one short: the US dollar.

All this, in turn, leads the global demand for U.S. dollars to increase, not because the Federal Reserve conducts a restrictive policy, but because the comparison with others shows the alternative fiat currencies are much worse.

This is the hangover from the great monetary binge of 2020, which saw an unprecedented increase in the balance sheet of central banks and global money supply soar to all-time highs. Furthermore, a massive binge that directly targeted at government current spending. Now, the boomerang effect is vicious: High inflation, currency collapses as well as equities and bonds market crash.

You wanted “unconventional” responses to a crisis? You got the most conventional of them all: Printing and destroying the purchasing power of the currency. Implemented for centuries with the same disastrous effects only to be dusted off by a new group of bureaucrats that promised that this time would be different.

“Spend now and deal with the consequences later” was often repeated by Keynesian consensus economists and now they shrug their shoulders and wonder why their “models did not work” as Lagarde and Krugman have said recently. Their models said that inflation would not appear after printing trillions of dollars and euros at the same time and none of them wondered if the models were junk. Why did they not question their “models”? Because the models said what they wanted to hear. However, inflation did appear, it was not transitory, and the trap was set. An overleveraged, massively indebted world with gigantic imbalances built on top of each other due to the placebo effect of monetary laughing gas generated the “bubble of everything” and now it bursts.

The US dollar is not strengthening because of a few, and modest rate hikes, the world’s currency and asset bubble is deflating.

As we said months ago, the U.S. dollar has created the conditions to be the most demanded currency simply because other central banks have been much more reckless. It only took an inflationary process that the central banks themselves denied or called transitory to raise the alarm of a market with overly optimistic expectations.

Liquidity is often taken for granted and what the world is living is the evidence that it is crucial in the market and the US dollar is the house with the largest number of windows and doors in a fire. You may dislike it, get angry or reject it, but it is a fact. The US dollar has proven to be the king, even destroying cryptocurrencies’ valuations in the process, because it has proven that liquidity matters more than quality thesis views.

The implications of a global currency debasement process like this are enormous: Widespread wealth destruction, persistent inflation making citizens poorer, emerging market reserves evaporating, making their recovery more difficult, earnings expectations plummeting… and all this coming from a Federal Reserve move that means that its balance sheet has barely reduced and rates are still low, even in negative territory if you see real inflationary pressures and not market participants’ assumptions of inflation expectations, which are always artificially low.

What about gold? Gold is down in US dollars but outperforming equities and bonds. However, gold is up in most global currencies.

The US dollar can lose its status as world reserve currency, but it is hardly feasible short term, because all contenders are implementing even more aggressive monetary excess policies. Think about Japan or the UK central bank trying to curb a yen or pound depreciation by printing even more money.

The next time you read from Keynesian consensus experts that massive stimulus plans are warranted because the models say there is no risk, remind them that they built the models to always show that government and monetary excess is inexistent ad therefore the models are rubbish. The problem is that policymakers will not learn because they benefit from inflation and currency depreciation. It is a form of taxation and wealth transfer from the productive to the politically connected. Many will blame the Federal Reserve for acting too quicky and aggressively, not for doing it too late and after too much. Most will demand more currency debasement and monetary excess.

And the result will be the same. US citizens are suffering the loss of purchasing power of their currency and the collapse of their investments while the rest of the worlds’ families and businesses see their real wages vanish and their currencies become worthless. Cheap money is expensive. Always.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

'Mild' Recession Likely To Be Worse Than Expected

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 08:30 AM
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

A recent MarketWatch article discussed JPMorgan’s Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Pinto, views about a coming mild recession.

“Pento said he’s reluctant to shed talent right away and may look to pick up bankers let go by other firms as inflation feeds talk of layoffs and recession on Wall Street.

Acknowledging that there could be a roughly 50% chance of a ‘mild recession’ ahead, Pinto said Tuesday he’s not expecting the investment banking business to come anywhere near the blockbuster results of 2021.”

However, it isn’t just JP Morgan. The global rating agency, Fitch, and Deutsche Bank recently slashed growth forecasts, predicting a “mild recession.”

“The eurozone and UK are now expected to enter recession later this year and the US will suffer a mild recession in mid-2023.”
FItch

“We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023.” – Christian Nolting, Deutsche Bank


These are only a few of the analysts’ comments of late. As the Federal Reserve continues reiterating a more aggressive monetary policy stance, analysts are finally shifting from a “slow growth” to a “mild recession” view.

The problem, however, is that analysts are almost always overly optimistic. Therefore, the risk of a recession becoming “worse than expected” is a rising probability.

Such is the case given U.S. inflationary pressures and crushingly high energy prices in the Eurozone. Given the global linkages in supply chains, consumption, and production, a deeper recession in the Eurozone will add to the domestic downturn, leading to a policy mistake.

Such was a point recently by Paul La Monica via CNN Business:

“The big problem facing the Fed: The economy still seems to be running too hot for its taste. Inflation is undoubtedly a major problem, but the job market is strong, consumers are still spending at a healthy clip, and housing prices remain high despite a substantial spike in mortgage rates.

‘This data will likely encourage the Fed to continue staying in overdrive but also increases the odds that sooner or later they will make a policy mistake by tightening financial conditions too much to fight inflation,’ said Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard, in a report.

In other words, the Fed’s rate hikes could ultimately lead to the economy cooling off more than the central bank would like.”


In other words, a “mild recession” in the U.S. could be much worse.

Downgrades To Come

The problem for the Fed, and Wall Street economists and analysts, is they make assessments based on lagging economic data like employment. Yes, employment was strong last month, but as shown below, that data has a historical tendency to reverse sharply.



Furthermore, that type of data is also regularly subject to extensive negative revisions in the future. The other problem is that monetary policy has a 9-12 month lag effect. As noted previously:

As the Fed continues to hike rates, each hike takes roughly 9-months to work its way through the economic system. Therefore, the rate hikes from March 2020 won’t show up in the economic data until December. Likewise, the Fed’s subsequent and more aggressive rate hikes won’t be fully reflected in the economic data until early to mid-2023. As the Fed hikes at subsequent meetings, those hikes will continue to compound their effect on a highly leveraged consumer with little savings through higher living costs.

Given the Fed manages monetary policy in the “rear view” mirror, more real-time economic data suggests the economy is rapidly moving from economic slowdown toward recession.”


The Economic Output Composite Index (EOCI) is a comprehensive measure of the overall economy. The EOCI index contains more than 100 leading and lagging economic data points covering the economy’s manufacturing and service sectors. Some data points included are the ISM surveys, Chicago PMI, CFNAI, Fed regional surveys, the NFIB survey, and the Leading Economic Index. Not surprisingly, the EOCI composite index has a very high correlation with economic growth, and readings below 30 indicate recessions. With the EOCI index currently below 32, the risk of a recession is rising.



As the economic data continues to weaken, we are seeing analysts slashing earlier estimates of solid growth at the beginning of the year to slow growth in the second quarter, and now a “mild recession.” To wit:

“On its own, the higher rates path and lower growth trajectory imply higher odds of a recession, although the increase in recession risk is partially offset by an improving outlook for goods inflation and recent declines in inflation expectations that lower the chances that the Fed will hike aggressively enough to cause a recession. In addition, strong household balance sheets and an improving outlook for real income limit the odds that the economy will slip into a recession in the near-term and are part of the reason why we expect that any post-covid US recession would likely be mild. Nevertheless, on net we see somewhat higher risks of a recession following our forecast changes, and are therefore raising our odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%.” – Goldman Sachs

The problem with Goldman Sachs’s comments is that the average American household balance sheet is anything but strong. As we showed just recently:



In other words, the coming recession will likely not be a “mild one.”

Earnings Recession To Follow

Why is this important from an investment view?

As discussed recently, the estimated earnings for the S&P 500 companies remain highly elevated. Such gives a false sense of security to investors looking at “forward valuations,” assuming stocks are fairly priced. In reality, most companies in the index remain overvalued despite the price decline in 2022.

“Despite the recent downward revisions, the current estimates still exceed the historical 6% exponential growth trend, which contained earnings growth since 1950, by one of the most significant deviations ever. The only two previous periods with similar deviations are the ‘Financial Crisis’ and the ‘Dot.com’ bubble.



More significant about that analysis is that earnings estimates DO NOT SURVIVE recessionary drags in the economy. As shown, the composite economic index (EOCI) is already signaling that earnings will decline further as the economy slows. The deeper the recession, the deeper the earnings decline will be.



The “forward” earnings estimate annual change also suggests even a “mild recession” will push estimates substantially lower. During every previous recessionary period since the turn of the century, forward estimates declined to a negative 20% annual rate of change.



Given that the whole point of the Fed hiking rates is to slow economic growth, thereby reducing inflation, the risk of a recession remains elevated. Unfortunately, with the economy slowing, as higher interest rates and prices weigh on consumers, additional tightening could exacerbate the risk of a recession.

Therein lies the risk. Since earnings remain correlated to economic growth, earnings decline as rate hikes ensue. Such is especially the case in more aggressive campaigns. Therefore, market prices have likely not discounted earnings enough to accommodate a further decline.



In other words, “fair value” for the market could still be substantially lower.

Navigating The Recession

From our perspective, the risk of deeper recession remains elevated, particularly as the Fed aggressively hikes rates.

While there is always a possibility that the economy could avoid a “recession,” those odds are slim at best. Therefore, as investors, we should at least prepare for a storm and then cross our fingers and hope for the best. The guidelines are simplistic but ultimately effective.
  1. Raise cash levels in portfolios
  2. Reduce equity risk, particularly in high beta growth areas.
  3. Add or increase the duration in bond allocations which tend to offset risk during quantitative tightening cycles.
  4. Reduce exposure to commodities and inflation plays as economic growth slows.
If a recession occurs, the preparation will allow you to survive the impact. Protecting capital from the inherent destruction will mean less time spent getting back to even after the storm passes.

Alternatively, it is relatively straightforward to reallocate funds to equity risk if we avoid a recession or if the Fed does revert to monetary accommodation.

Investing during a recession is difficult. However, you can take some steps to ensure that increased volatility is survivable.
  • Have excess emergency savings so you are not “forced” to sell during a decline to meet obligations.
  • Extend your time horizon to 5-7 years, as buying distressed stocks can get more distressed.
  • Don’t obsessively check your portfolio.
  • Consider tax-loss harvesting (selling stocks at a loss) to offset those losses against future gains.
  • Stick to your investing discipline regardless of what happens.
While the media tries to pick the next market bottom, it is better to let the market show you. You will be late, but you will have confirmation the selling is over.

If I am correct, the recession could be worse than expected, and prices will decline further.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Gas Starts Flowing To Poland Via New Baltic Pipe From Norway

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 07:30 AM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Natural gas started flowing to Poland through the new Baltic Pipe pipeline from Norway via the Baltic Sea on the morning of Oct. 1, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said.

“Promises made over six years ago have been kept,” Gaz-System said, according to a translation of its Oct. 1 statement.

Gas started flowing at 6:10 a.m. on Oct. 1 via the Baltic Pipe pipeline, with nominations—or requests for sending gas through the pipeline—totaled 62.4 million kilowatt-hours (kwh), the company added.

“This is a historic moment and one that we’ve been awaiting for many years,” Anna Moskwa, Poland’s minister for climate and the environment, said in a statement.

The pipeline is at the center of Poland’s long-standing strategy to diversify its gas supplies away from Russia.



Construction of the Baltic Pipe system, which has an annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters, resumed in March after a 33-month hiatus over environmental concerns.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of February not only forced European countries to rethink their reliance on Russian energy but also added impetus to completing the construction of the Baltic Pipeline linking Poland to Norwegian gas fields.

Construction of the pipeline was completed on Sept. 27, with Polish President Andrzej Duda calling it “one of the most significant days since 1989,” referring to the toppling of communism in the Eastern European country.

“This is a great day. A great day for Poland, for Denmark, Norway, and the entire European Union. It’s a great day for our part of Europe, for building security, peace, and for strengthening our sovereignty,” he said, according to the Office of the President.

Moskwa said in a statement that by diversifying gas supplies, Poland has become “energy secure” and that completion of Baltic Pipe is a symbol of Poland’s “energy sovereignty.”

Russia cut gas supplies to Poland in April when it refused to pay in roubles.

The gas leak in the Baltic Sea from Nord Stream photographed from the Coast Guard’s aircraft on Sept. 27, 2022. (Swedish Coast Guard via AP)

Baltic Pipe was officially inaugurated a day after leaks were detected in the subsea Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe.

Earlier this week, researchers with seismology agencies in Denmark and Sweden found that the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines was most likely caused by explosions and ruled out the possibility of natural causes.

According to data released by a team of seismologists, the blasts occurred in the vicinity of the location of the pipelines. Both Danish and Swedish seismic agencies picked up the alleged explosions on Sept. 26.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Ukraine Recaptures Key Eastern Town Of Lyman A Day After Putin's Annexation Speech


SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 08:00 AM

Ukraine has declared it has retaken the key eastern city of Lyman in Donetsk - one of the four provinces formally annexed by Russia during a ceremony overseen by President Vladimir Putin on Friday. With the Kremlin having since confirmed a withdrawal from the city, it marks a huge blow to Russian forces and the strategic objective of asserting full control over the Donbas.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry on Sunday described Lyman as "fully cleared of the Russian occupiers" shortly after noon local time, with social media videos showing Ukrainian soldiers erecting Ukrainian flags over the city. "Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are entering Lyman," it said.

With a pre-war population of over 20,000 people, Lyman has been described since the start of the Russian invasion as a key logistics and transportation hub of the east.

Russia's defense ministry on Saturday issued a statement confirming its forces have withdrawn: "In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, the allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Lyman to more favorable lines," it said in a daily briefing.

Last week, the Kremlin said that it's wouldn't contemplate ending its "special operation" until at least all of the Donbas - as well as the totality of the four annexed territories - have been secured. This includes the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions - none of which at this point are under 100% Russian control.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1576313811598200832
.42 min

Yet during his major speech declaring that the territories have now been politically absorbed into the Russian Federation, President Putin said they are "ours forever" and vowed to defend them by all available means.

The Kremlin has emphasized that "Any strikes targeting the new areas after their accession to Russia will be considered aggression against us." The threats have been widely viewed as indicating Russia is about to send significantly more troops to the battlefield, after the mobilization of some 300,000 reservists - though some say this figure could be even higher.

According to the Moscow Times:

The Russian decision to withdraw from Lyman led to immediate criticism from Kremlin allies.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov posted on messaging app Telegram that, if it was his decision, he would demote the commander in charge of the Lyman operation, "strip him of his medals and send him to the front with a rifle to wash away his humilation in blood."

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1576410989104627712
3:51 min

And over the weekend some pundits on Russian television expressed their shock and anger, as calls for greater Russian mobilization and intervention grow from some Kremlin circles.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(China)

Tianjin City (population 14 million). October 1st. City under lockdown established in night! 2:19 min

TIANJIN CITY (POPULATION 14 MILLION). OCTOBER 1ST. CITY UNDER LOCKDOWN ESTABLISHED IN NIGHT!​

Tianjin City (population 14 million),October 1st. Chinese Authorities specifically erected iron fences at midnight to put this city in lockdown. All businesses are ordered to close and residents stopped their usual activities huddling together to take COVID tests.

^^^^^
CHINA - Tens of thousands of people are starving in lockdown 1:40 min

CHINA - TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE STARVING IN LOCKDOWN​

The Chinese government: "No, a virus doesn't kill our people. We are the ones who kill them by starving them first."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Exposing the Carbon Credit and Offset SCAM 12:03 min

EXPOSING THE CARBON CREDIT AND OFFSET SCAM​

What a scam, Who came up with this SCAM? WEF supporting all this scamming! Some Mafia?

Carbon credits are a way to reduce our carbon emissions and our carbon footprint to ensure a sustainable planet for future generations. Just like with most ideas, carbon credits started off with honest intentions but loopholes have turned it into a bookkeeping trick. Credits can be a greenwashing tactic that allow companies to mislead customers without making any improvements to their business model.

Chapters
0:00 Introduction
1:06 Cap and trade market
1:49 Voluntary market
2:37 Kyoto Protocol
5:05 Paris Agreement
5:48 Examples
9:09 Carbon Credit Cost
10:09 Conclusion

There are 2 broad types of carbon markets. The first is a mandatory ‘cap and trade’ program. Governments set a limit or cap on the emissions permitted across a certain industry. If a company goes over their allowance, they can buy more carbon credits from their market to continue emitting gases. The second type of carbon market is the voluntary offset program. This allows businesses, nonprofits, and individuals to offset their emissions by choice.

The carbon credit market was created as part of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. This legally binding international agreement required only developed nations to cut CO2 emissions. It aimed to decrease overall emissions by 5% from 1990 levels. However, UN officials have since confirmed that Russian and Ukrainian oil and gas companies exploited loopholes and actually increased carbon emissions by 600 million tonnes.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 declared a new set of targets and asked all nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not just developed nations. Its goal is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. The Paris agreement is voluntary and non-legally binding.

Jim Hourdequin, CEO of Lyme Timber recently exposed the fraudulent carbon credit system in this Bloomberg article by Ben Elgin. They earned $53 million from these environmental transactions over the past two years. Lyme Timber also received $20 million for protecting 47,000 acres of hardwood forest in West Virginia. However, the land was so rugged and steep that the trees couldn’t have been harvested anyway.

Here’s another example of dodgy carbon credits. An oil company, Royal Dutch Shell, delivered a carbon neutral tanker of LNG or liquified natural gas to Taiwan by investing in ten year old forest projects in Ghana, Indonesia and Peru. In 2020, a French oil company, Total, also delivered its first shipment of carbon neutral LNG. How can you extract natural gas in Australia, ship it to China and claim it’s carbon neutral? By buying a 10 year old wind farm in northern China called Hebei.

from
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5GAaCTwc9s
12:03 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Your "Carbon Footprint" is a LIE (and we all fell for it) 9:59 min

YOUR "CARBON FOOTPRINT" IS A LIE (AND WE ALL FELL FOR IT)​

Your carbon footprint is a scam. Unfortunately, carbon is a real problem for our world. But you'll never guess who sold us the lie of the carbon footprint.

You've probably never considered where the term carbon footprint came from in the first place. And it'll probably blow your mind to learn it was only created less than twenty years ago by one of the world's largest oil companies, BP. And they did it mostly so you'd take the blame for the problem of carbon; not them.

Over the years, BP--and the fossil fuels industry in general--have greenwashed the world into believing they care about making a positive change for our environment. When in reality, they've been conducting their dirty business behind the scenes as usual.

0:00 - Your carbon footprint is a lie
0:53 - Where "carbon footprint" came from
3:01 - BP's climate propaganda campaign
4:03 - Lobbying against climate action
6:15 - Getting rich off carbon trading
8:00 - Can we do anything?

source Sorelle Amore Finance
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_zjhp5HyfI
9:59 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Germany)

Bielefeld, Germany, Anti Covid BS, Anti Covid Lies....Do whatever you can to Disrupt their Plans! .41 min

BIELEFELD, GERMANY, ANTI COVID BS, ANTI COVID LIES....DO WHATEVER YOU CAN TO DISRUPT THEIR PLANS!​

^^^^^
Dresden, Germany, "Students Stand Up" initiative. .29 min

DRESDEN, GERMANY, "STUDENTS STAND UP" INITIATIVE.​

Dresden - "Students Stand Up" initiative, which is taking place in Dresden. Comrades-in-arms, including of course non-students, have gathered to take a long walk through the center of Dresden.

^^^
(Canada)

Quebec, Canada, Oct 1, Boom, Anti Covid BS, Anti Agenda 2030, Anti Govt Lies.. 2:20 min

QUEBEC, CANADA, OCT 1, BOOM, ANTI COVID BS, ANTI AGENDA 2030, ANTI GOVT LIES..​

Quebec Canada, Boom, Anti Covid BS, Anti Agenda 2030, Anti Govt Lies... Do Whatever You Can to Disrupt their Plans

^^^^
(Romania)

02.10.2022 Romania protest against #inflation #EnergyCrisis demanding early elections 1:32 min

02.10.2022 ROMANIA PROTEST AGAINST #INFLATION #ENERGYCRISIS DEMANDING EARLY ELECTIONS​

^^^^^
(Iran)

Iranian Mercenaries surround Irans most prestigious University and are attacking students and staff! .18 min

IRANIAN MERCENARIES SURROUND IRANS MOST PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITY AND ARE ATTACKING STUDENTS AND STAFF!​

Extremely worrying news of regime forces surrounding Iran’s most prestigious university, Sharif Uni., and violently attacking students and faculty tonight. The situation at Sharif University is very dangerous. The students are apparently asking the people for help.

Repressive Forces of the government surrounded Sharif University and took students and faculty hostage. The armed mercenaries entered and are shooting at students and faculty. They have at least 100 students surrounded and they have requested that people rush towards the university to help. People are moving to the University to assist!
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Hmmmmmm.....


The 70 Seconds That Shook The World

SUNDAY, OCT 02, 2022 - 06:15 PM
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

On March 16, 2020, following a long weekend of negotiations and deals about the coronavirus, Donald Trump, Deborah Birx, and Anthony Fauci spoke at a White House press conference for the first time about nationwide lockdowns.

They handed out a sheet of paper – it mostly consisted of conventional health advice – that said in tiny print: “bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

Shut it all down. Everything. Everyone. As if the whole economy were a nightclub closing early.

This amounted to a full repudiation of not only the Constitution but also freedom itself. At the very least, it was a fundamental attack on the First Amendment guarantees of the freedom of religion because it attacked the rights of Christians, Jews, Muslims, and everyone.

All evidence suggests that Trump did not know that the tiny text was in there.

The reading of the text was left to the question and answer session.

Even when it was read by Fauci from the podium, Trump seemed distracted by something else, almost as if he did not hear or did not want to hear it. Later he bragged that the whole thing was his doing, but looking back at the history of that day, it is not so clear.

Let’s take this apart frame by frame to understand what happened in these 70 seconds as part of the Q&A session. A reporter starts by asking whether the federal government is telling people to “avoid restaurants and bars” or if the government is saying that “bars and restaurants should shut down over the next 15 days.”

Both Fauci and Birx knew for sure that the guidelines were calling for them to shut down.

After a long and tedious press conference about not much, following a very precise question, Trump turns to Fauci to have him answer. This might be because he wasn’t listening carefully and did not know how to respond. Fauci then motions to Birx, who rises to the podium. Fauci probably believed that she would be the one to do the dirty work of announcing the lockdowns. Fauci is clearly egging her on: now is your time.

Birx begins her answer with a strategic deflection, speaking tendentiously about how long the virus lives on surfaces. It was nothing but smokescreen, and there is every reason to believe that she knew it. She pointedly was not answering the question. She chickened out at the last moment.

A possibly frustrated Fauci interrupts here with a hand signal from the side. Birx immediately realizes what he was going to do: he was going to read the order that Trump did not know was there. So she decides to pass the buck. She gets giddy and silly with excitement, adrenaline flowing. She starts stumbling around with her words, and says in a faux-girlish way that she will let Fauci speak because he is her mentor.

This was her way of saying that she would gladly pass this hot potato onto him.

She likely knew that this was the great moment they had all been waiting for. She was mad with excitement. Oddly, Trump was smiling too but possibly because of her antics, not because of what was about to happen.

1664770781202.png

Fauci steps up to the microphone. He does not personally call for lockdowns. Instead he reads the guidance word for word.

Dr. Fauci: The small print here. It’s really small print. “In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

As he reads, Birx herself is smiling from ear to ear, as if the words were poetry to her. It was not an unfamiliar text. She had been working on these words the entire weekend. Finally all her work had come to fruition.

Even better, she didn’t have to read it. Fauci did.
1664770838142.png
What was Donald Trump doing during this time? He got distracted by someone in the audience who got his attention. He smiles and points a finger. One wonders who and why.

Here is a screenshot.

1664770713990.png

Was someone assigned to do the job of distracting him? One cannot rule it out. This was the most significant moment of all. The big reveal had come. And Trump’s attention was clearly elsewhere. To whom was he pointing and smiling?

Was he just pretending not to hear?

Who can say?

Fauci reads the text and then he steps away from the microphone. He had just read what is in fact the most totalitarian instruction ever given by any government in the history of the world – I can’t think of another case of such a thing – that all human interaction must stop from sea to shining sea. After all, all congregate places include homes too. Then Fauci steps away from the microphone.

Trump then comes back to the podium. He briefly rolls his eyes, as if to say “There he goes again” but without a conception of what was just read or what it meant.

1664770882514.png

At this point, what happens? Birx is gleaming, internally cheering. The deed has been done. It’s over. They worked for many weeks to pull off this caper and in an instant it was done.

Notice here that Fauci catches Birx’s eye and gives a little nod. She smiles back. They were giving visual affirmations to each other.

1664770926714.png

It was then that Trump clarified that he is not telling anyone or anything to shut down, but this statement contradicts what was just read a few seconds ago.

The exchange went as follows:

Reporter: So Mr. President, are you telling governors in those states then to close all their restaurants and their bars?

Trump: Well we haven’t said that yet.

Reporter: Why not?

Trump: We’re recommending but-

Reporter: But if you think this would work.

Trump: … we’re recommending things. No, we haven’t gone to that step yet. That could happen, but we haven’t gone there yet.

This was another strange moment because Trump explicitly contradicted the words that were just read. The paper reporters were looking at were clearly a lockdown order. Any astute reporter would have seen the huge chasm separating the edict from Trump’s own words or understanding.

Here you can watch the full 70 seconds. Deconstruct it yourself. See what you think. It was momentous, probably the most significant in American history, the culmination of weeks of persuasion and planning.

Video on website 1:16 min

Everything followed from that brief moment: lockdown chaos, the closed schools and churches, the end of basic rights, the wrecking of business, and then began the spending, inflating, mad welfare checks, and the demoralization of the population that continues to this day.

The population now subjected to shock and awe, the mask and vaccine mandates seemed minor by comparison.

All of it unfolded in 70 seconds on March 16, 2020. So far as I know, this is the first and only article written so far to reconstruct this brief moment in time.

^^^^
(Comment: Trump was always a strict Constitutionalist when it came to the virus. He knew that the states retained the "police powers' to protect public health and safety - not the federal government. The items in "fine print" were recommendations to the states as the federal government did not have the Constitutional authority to impose them.

In Carter v. Carter Coal Co., 298 U.S. 238 (1936),the Court stated:

"The general rule with regard to the respective powers of the national and the state governments under the Constitution is not in doubt. The states were before the Constitution; and, consequently, their legislative powers antedated the Constitution. Those who framed and those who adopted that instrument meant to carve from the general mass of legislative powers, then possessed by the states, only such portions as it was thought wise to confer upon the federal government; and in order that there should be no uncertainty in respect of what was taken and what was left, the national powers of legislation were not aggregated but enumerated-with the result that what was not embraced by the enumeration remained vested in the states without change or impairment. Thus, 'when it was found necessary to establish a national government for national purposes,' this court said in Munn v. Illinois, 94 U.S. 113, 124, 'a part of the powers of the States and of the people of the States was granted to the United States and the people of the United States. This grant operated as a further limitation upon the powers of the States, so that now the governments of the States possess all the powers of the Parliament of England, except such as have been delegated to the United States or reserved by the people.' While the states are not sovereign in the true sense of that term, but only quasi sovereign, yet in respect of all powers reserved to them they are supreme-'as independent of the general government as that government within its sphere is independent of the States.' The Collector v. Day, 11 Wall. 113, 124. And since every addition to the national legislative power to some extent detracts from or invades the power of the states, it is of vital moment that, in order to preserve the fixed balance intended by the Constitution, the powers of the general government be not so extended as to embrace any not within the express terms of the several grants or the implications necessarily to be drawn therefrom. It is no longer open to question that the general government, unlike the states, Hammer v. Degenhart, 247 U.S. 251, 275, 38 S.Ct. 529, 3 A.L.R. 649, Ann.Cas.1918E 724, possesses no inherent power in respect of the internal affairs of the states; and emphatically not with regard to legislation. The question in respect of the inherent power of that government as to the external affairs of the Nation and in the field of international law is a wholly different matter which it is not necessary now to consider. See, however, Jones v. United States, 137 U.S. 202, 212, 11 S.Ct. 80; Nishimur Ekiu v. United States, 142 U.S. 651, 659, 12 S.Ct. 336; Fong Yue Ting v. United states, 149 U.S. 698, 705 et seq., 13 S.Ct. 1016; Burnet v. Brooks, 288 U.S. 378, 396, 53 S.Ct. 457, 86 A.L.R. 747.

"The determination of the Framers Convention and the ratifying conventions to preserve complete and unimpaired state self-government in all matters not committed to the general government is one of the plainest facts which emerges from the history of their deliberations. And adherence to that determination is incumbent equally upon the federal government and the states. State powers can neither be appropriated on the one hand nor abdicated on the other. As this court said in Texas v. White, 7 Wall. 700, 725, 'The preservation of the States, and the maintenance of their governments, are as much within the design and care of the Constitution as the preservation of the Union and the maintenance of the National government. The Constitution, in all its provisions, looks to an indestructible Union, composed of indestructible States.' Every journey to a forbidden end begins with the first step; and the danger of such a step by the federal government in the direction of taking over the powers of the states is that the end of the journey may find the states so despoiled of their powers, or-what may amount to the same thing-so relieved of the responsibilities which possession of the powers necessarily enjoins, as to reduce them to little more than geographical subdivisions of the national domain. It is safe to say that if, when the Constitution was under consideration, it had been thought that any such danger lurked behind its plain words, it would never have been ratified.)
 
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