GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

[marsh]

Europe suffers horrifying 755% increase in Excess Deaths among Children since EMA approved COVID Vaccine for Kids

At the end of August, we exclusively revealed that official mortality figures for Europe showed a shocking 691% increase in excess deaths among children up to week 33 of 2022 since the European Med…

expose-news.com

Europe suffers horrifying 755% increase in Excess Deaths among Children since EMA approved COVID Vaccine for Kids​

BY THE EXPOSÉ ON SEPTEMBER 25, 2022 •

At the end of August, we exclusively revealed that official mortality figures for Europe showed a shocking 691% increase in excess deaths among children up to week 33 of 2022 since the European Medicines Agency extended the emergency use authorisation of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for use in children aged 12 to 15 in May 2021.

Our investigation has since forced the European Union’s official statistics department to begin a Europe-wide investigation into why there has been a significant increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14.

However, upon announcing the investigation, EuroMOMO, the organisation that published the figures, altered the baseline by which excess deaths are measured against. This questionable act resulted in the number of excess deaths being artificially reduced.

So we have revisited the data, and despite EuroMOMO’s best efforts to reduce the severity of the situation we uncovered, we can exclusivly reveal that the altered figures show there has been a shocking 755% increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2022 so far, and a 630% increase overall since the EMA first approved the Covid-19 vaccine for children.

---

---

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity. The organisation states that its aim is to “detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats”.

Official national mortality statistics are provided weekly from the 29 European countries or subnational regions in the EuroMOMO collaborative network, supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), and hosted by Statens Serum Institut, Denmark.

The following chart shows the weekly excess deaths throughout 2020 and 2021 among children aged 0 to 14 across Europe. The graph has been taken from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



As you can see from the above, deaths among children throughout 2020 were generally below the expected number of deaths. This trend continued throughout 2021 up to week 22, at which point excess deaths were recorded week on week until the end of the year.

What’s interesting about the fact excess deaths began to be recorded among children in week 22 of 2021 is that it coincides with the week the European Medicines Agency (EMA) granted “an extension of indication for the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (Pfizer) to include use in children aged 12 to 15″.

Source

The following chart shows the cumulative totals of weekly excess deaths between 2017 and 2022 among children aged 0 to 14 across Europe between week 0 and week 21. The data has been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



The 2018 to 2020 average number of excess deaths among children across Europe between week 1 and week 21 equates to 199. But during the first 21 weeks of 2021, there were actually 408 fewer deaths among children than expected and 607 fewer deaths than the 2018 to 2020 average.

The following chart shows the total number of excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2021 following EMA approval of the Covid-19 vaccine for 12 to 15-year-olds in week 22, compared to the same time frame in other years. The numbers have been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



The 2017 to 2020 average number of excess deaths among children across Europe between week 22 and week 52 equates to 104.25. But during the same period in 2021, following EMA approval of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for children, there were 682 more deaths among children than expected and 578 more deaths than the 2017 to 2020 average.

This means excess deaths among children throughout 2021 after EMA approval of the Covid-19 injection for children aged 12 to 15, increased by 554% compared to the week 22 to week 52, 2017 to 2020 average.

The following chart shows the total number of excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2022 so far (Week 37) compared to the same time frame in other years. The numbers have been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



In 2022, children aged 5 and over across Europe have been offered the Covid-19 injection, and children aged 12 and over have been offered up to three doses of the Covid-19 injection.

The 2018 to 2021 average number of excess deaths among children between week 1 and week 33 equates to 63.4. But during the first 33 weeks of 2022, there were 542 more deaths among children than expected and 479 more deaths than the 2018 to 2021 average.

This means excess deaths among children throughout 2022 so far after EMA approval of the Covid-19 injection for children aged 5 and above, have increased by 755% compared to the 2018 to 2021 average.

Once we combine the figures for week 22 in 2021 onwards up to week 33 of 2022 (1,224excess deaths), and compare them against the combined 2017 to 2020 & 2018 to 2021 average (167.65 excess deaths), we find that excess deaths among children across Europe have increased by 630% since the European Medicines Agency first approved a Covid-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15 in May 2021.



Thankfully the European Union’s official statistics department has already begun a Europe-wide investigation into why there has been a significant increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 since the European Medicines Agency approved the Covid-19 injection for children because of our previous investigation.

For comparison, these are the figures we uncovered in week 33, before EuroMOMO curiously altered the baseline in week 36 upon announcing the investigation.

Source

However, we don’t hold much hope that the authorities will ever admit that these deaths are occurring because of the Covid-19 injections.

The fact these excess deaths have only occurred since the EMA first approved the Covid-19 vaccine for children will most likely just be another “coincidence” to add to the long list of “coincidences” that have occurred since early 2020.

 

[marsh]

Military subsidizes service members' grocery bills as prices soar from Bidenflation

The latest federal inflation data shows that food prices have soared in the past year, far outpacing wage growth.

justthenews.com

Military subsidizes service members' grocery bills as prices soar from Bidenflation​

The latest federal inflation data shows that food prices have soared in the past year, far outpacing wage growth.

By Casey Harper
Updated: September 25, 2022 - 11:48pm

The U.S. Department of Defense is taking new measures to help U.S. service members deal with rising costs as inflation continues to put the pressure on Americans.

Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder laid out a series of changes from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to help families deal with the recent rise in costs, particularly in food, housing and childcare.

“We're surging funding into the commissary system to drop prices at the register so that military families see savings of at least 25% on grocery bills, compared to their local marketplace, an investment that means military families will see lower grocery bills at the commissary in the next couple of weeks,” Ryder said. "Second, making moves easier for families. We'll extend coverage for temporary housing expenses while moving to give military families more flexibility through the move process, and we'll increase dislocation allowance payments for enlisted troops from E-1 through E-6 to offset personal expenses from PCS moves.”

Ryder also pointed to help with childcare expenses and employment for military spouses.

“These are not the first steps that Secretary Austin has launched to take care of our people,” Ryder said. “These actions follow an initial economic security memo issued last November, the Food Security Initiative that the department launched in July, the proposal for the largest military pay increase in two decades included in the president's F.Y. '23 Budget Request and historic reforms to curb the scourge of sexual assault and to prevent suicide in our ranks.”

The latest federal inflation data shows that food prices have soared in the past year, far outpacing wage growth.

“The food at home index rose 13.5 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 1979,” BLS said. “The index for other food at home rose 16.7 percent and the index for cereals and bakery products increased 16.4 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 9.4 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 16.2 percent (dairy and related products).”

The decision comes after The Center Square reported that the U.S. Army was recommending soldiers apply for SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps, to help cope with rising prices.

“With inflation affecting everything from gas prices to groceries to rent, some Soldiers and their families are finding it harder to get by on the budgets they’ve set and used before,” troop guidance written by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael A. Grinston reads. “Soldiers of all ranks can seek guidance, assistance, and advice through the Army’s Financial Readiness Program.”
The guidance went on to specifically recommend food stamps.

“SNAP is a U.S. government program that provides benefits to eligible low-income individuals and families via an electronic benefits transfer card that can be used like a debit card to purchase eligible food in authorized retail food stores. Service members and their families may be eligible,” the Army guidance reads. “To determine qualification, visit the SNAP website or call the SNAP information line at 800-221-5689.”

 

[Tristan]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

If It's Over, Why The Continued Emergency?

Because Power.

 

[marsh]

No summaries given. Did not watch

Harnwell: “Giorgia Meloni won the Italian election — but it is also true to say the left lost it” 10:33 min

Harnwell: “Giorgia Meloni won the Italian election — but it is also true to say the left lost it”​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

^^^^^
Matt Schlapp: Giorgia Meloni's Victory Is Warning Shot Against The Globalists 7:23 min

Matt Schlapp: Giorgia Meloni's Victory Is Warning Shot Against The Globalists​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

^^^^^
Maria Luisa Rossi Hawkins: Giorgia Meloni Overcame Numerous Personal Attack 6:57 min

Maria Luisa Rossi Hawkins: Giorgia Meloni Overcame Numerous Personal Attack​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

^^^^

Terry Schilling: Giorgio Melano Represents The Family For Nationalists Everywhere

Terry Schilling: Giorgio Melano Represents The Family For Nationalists Everywhere

rumble.com

3:52 min

Terry Schilling: Giorgio Melano Represents The Family For Nationalists Everywhere​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

^^^^
Tyrmand: Globalists Attempting To Seize Italy's Sovereignty Fears New Nationalist PM Giorgia Meloni 3:25 min

Tyrmand: Globalists Attempting To Seize Italy's Sovereignty Fears New Nationalist PM Giorgia Meloni​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

 

[marsh]

Joe Allen Explains The Globalists Methods To Achieving Immortality 8:23 min

Joe Allen Explains The Globalists Methods To Achieving Immortality​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

 

[marsh]

No summaries given Did not watch

Steve Cortes: America's Retirement Funds Are Being Decimated by the Biden Economy 7:32 min

Steve Cortes: America's Retirement Funds Are Being Decimated by the Biden Economy​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

 

[marsh]

No summaries given Did not watch

Steve Cortes Analyzes Fed's Lies Misguiding The American Public 11:16 min

Steve Cortes Analyzes Fed's Lies Misguiding The American Public​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022



^^^^^

The Clueless Fed

Powell and his lieutenants share blame for the Biden economic crisis.

stevecortes.substack.com

The Clueless Fed​

Powell and his lieutenants share blame for the Biden economic crisis.​

Steve Cortes
7 hr ago



Screen Grab: Bloomberg TV

Americans suffering the ravages of an economy in recession with the added hardship of record inflation naturally deploy most of the political anger toward Joe Biden for his disastrous policy failures. This derision is both understandable and well-deserved.

But many citizens probably fail to ascertain the full scope of the Federal Reserve Bank’s complicity in creating this recession/inflation quagmire. Over the weekend, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, provided a reminder about just how out of touch he and other Fed chieftains remain – how aloof they stand from the economic calamity they create.

 

[marsh]

No summary given Did not watch

Matthew Tyrmand: US Dollar and British Pound Crossed For First Time Since 1980s

Matthew Tyrmand: US Dollar and British Pound Crossed For First Time Since 1980s

rumble.com

Matthew Tyrmand: US Dollar and British Pound Crossed For First Time Since 1980s​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

 

[marsh]

John Solomon: FBI Agent Suspended For Protecting Americans' Constitutional Rights 2:06 min

John Solomon: FBI Agent Suspended For Protecting Americans' Constitutional Rights​

Bannons War Room Published September 26, 2022

No summary given Did not watch.

^^^^

FBI whistleblower says SWAT teams being misused, J6 defendants' rights trampled

Suspended agent says he and others are being listed "as Affiants on search and arrest warrant affidavits for subjects" whom they "have never investigated or even interviewed."

justthenews.com

FBI whistleblower says SWAT teams being misused, J6 defendants' rights trampled​

Suspended agent says he and others are being listed "as Affiants on search and arrest warrant affidavits for subjects" whom they "have never investigated or even interviewed."

By John Solomon
Updated: September 26, 2022 - 3:40pm

An FBI whistleblower has reported to the Office of Special Counsel that he believes the bureau and Justice Department are violating the constitutional rights of Jan. 6 defendants, falsifying statistics on domestic extremism and misusing SWAT teams to make misdemeanor arrests, according to a copy of the complaint reviewed by Just the News.

Special Agent Stephen M. Friend, who works for the FBI in Florida and serves as a SWAT team member, told the main federal whistleblower office in Washington he had an "exemplary" work record since he joined the bureau in 2014 and even won awards but was suspended in recent days after he began raising concerns about the FBI's and DOJ's conduct in the Jan. 6 investigation
"I believed the investigations were inconsistent with FBI procedure and resulted in the violation of citizens' Sixth and Eighth Amendment rights," Friend wrote. "I added that many of my colleagues expressed similar concerns to me but had not vocalized their objections to FBI Executive Management."
The FBI national press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Friday.

Friend said one of his many concerns is that the FBI is using SWAT teams to arrest Jan. 6 defendants facing misdemeanor charges, violating the bureau's Domestic Investigations and Operations Guide and creating a potentially unsafe encounter.

"I responded that it was inappropriate to use an FBI SWAT team to arrest a subject for misdemeanor offenses and opined that the subject would likely face extended detainment and biased jury pools in Washington D.C.," Friend wrote in his whistleblower complaint. "I suggested alternatives such as the issuance of a court summons or utilizing surveillance groups to determine an optimal, safe time for a local sheriff deputy to contact the subjects and advise them about the existence of the arrest warrant."

The agent said when he suggested alternatives for arresting suspects in minor Jan. 6 cases one of his bosses "told me that FBI executive management considered all potential alternatives and determined the SWAT takedown was the appropriate course of action."

Friend said he believes the Jan. 6 investigation has involved "overzealous charging by the DOJ and biased jury pools in Washington D.C." and that the heavy-handed tactics smacked of prior FBI mistakes like the Ruby Ridge tragedy in the 1990s.

Friend also confirmed allegations first raised by Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, that the FBI field office in Washington D.C. was opening Jan. 6 cases in other field offices across the country, creating a false data trail suggesting a nationwide problem with domestic violent extremism when in fact the cases all stemmed from the Capitol riot in the nation's capital.

Friend said he was assigned Jan. 6 investigations for Florida and that one consequence of the data manipulation is that agents in field offices across the country are being listed as case agents for search and arrest warrants for subjects they actually had not investigated.

"There are active criminal investigations of J6 subjects in which I am listed as the 'Case Agent,' but have not done any investigative work," Friend wrote in the complaint. "Additionally, my supervisor has not approved any paperwork within the file. J6 Task Force members are serving as Affiants on search and arrest warrant affidavits for subjects whom I have never investigated or even interviewed but am listed as a Case Agent."

Another consequence, Friend said, is that agents are being told to deprioritize other investigations of serious crimes like child sex exploitation.

"I was also told that child sexual abuse material investigations were no longer an FBI priority and should be referred to local law enforcement agencies," he wrote.

In an interview Friday, Jordan confirmed his office has had contact with Friend and that he expressed concerns about the deployment of FBI SWAT teams for misdemeanor cases.

"There's other ways to do this, in this agent's assessment of things, and he wanted to let our office know that," Jordan told Just the News. "Again, I guess you step back and think of it for a second. There were other ways to deal with President Trump. I mean, for goodness sake.

______
COMMENT: This is obviously being done to intimidate and tamp down large protests in the US like you are seeing elsewhere in the world.

 

[marsh]

The CCP "Climate Change" Activist Group Controlling Joe Biden! 7:35 min

The CCP "Climate Change" Activist Group Controlling Joe Biden!​

Nick Moseder Published September 26, 2022



Published September 26, 2022 2:00am EDT

Green group influencing Biden admin has deep ties to Chinese government​

Green groups' ties to China will be 'top priority' for House Republicans after midterms, GOP spokesperson says

By Thomas Catenacci | Fox News

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), a major U.S. green group that has influenced Biden administration policymaking, has deep ties to the Chinese government.

The NRDC, a non-profit organization based in New York City with total assets exceeding $450 million, has worked on climate issues extensively in China since the mid-1990s and several of its top officials have worked for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or government-sponsored institutions.

The NRDC maintains a close working relationship with President Biden's administration. The NRDC's former president, Gina McCarthy, served as Biden's climate czar up from January 2021 until earlier this month. Current president, Manish Bapna, has attended at least two White House meetings, visitor logs reviewed by Fox News Digital show.

The NRDC regularly communicates with Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry's office on policy issues, according to internal State Department emails obtained by the watchdog group Protect the Public's Trust and shared with Fox News Digital.

On its website, the NRDC highlights its collaboration with a "wide range of Chinese and international partners" to boost green policies and "fortify" environmental regulations in the country.

JOHN KERRY'S OFFICE CONSULTED LEFT-WING ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS WHILE CRAFTING POLICY, EMAILS SHOW

The NRDC, though, rarely condemns the communist government in China despite the nation's massive world-leading carbon footprint and its commitment to fossil fuel energy. China accounts for about 27% of total global emissions — nearly tripling the total in the U.S., the world's second-largest emitter, according to Rhodium Group — and continues to approve and construct a large amount of coal power plants.

"China has made a serious commitment to turning its cities into healthier places to live and currently leads the world in renewable energy installation and electric vehicle penetration," the NRDC website states.

While the group has a sizable international program that extends into Canada, India and Latin America, its sole office outside the U.S. is located in Beijing, China's capital city. The NRDC's Chinese language website states the office is registered under the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau and supervised by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China.

The NRDC's most recent tax filings showed that the Chinese office is staffed with 35 employees and has a $4.2 million annual budget. By comparison, the group's international work in North America, South America, South Asia and the Middle East has 11 staffers and a $1.1 million annual budget.

"The NRDC is an independent public-interest group working to protect the environment and public health," Amanda Maxwell, the managing director of NRDC’s international program, told Fox News Digital in a statement. "The central environmental challenges of our time - threats to our oceans and wildlife, toxic chemicals in our food and air, climate change and more - are global problems that demand a global fix."

"As the world's most populous country, China plays an important role in the search for sustainable solutions," she continued. "That’s what our work is all about. In China, and elsewhere, we’re working to create a cleaner, more sustainable world - for everyone."

Maxwell said the NRDC has never received any funding directly or indirectly from organizations affiliated with the CCP. The Internal Revenue Service generally does not require nonprofit organizations to publicly disclose donor information.

She added that non-profit organizations like the NRDC are required in China to register with a government sponsor to coordinate in-country activities, explaining why the group's activities are supervised by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, China's equivalent of the U.S. Department of the Interior.

"We advise our sponsor, the Chinese National Forestry and Grassland Administration, of our work plan for in-country activities involving any Chinese entity, government or private," Maxwell told Fox News Digital. "And we provide the agency with an annual report assessing the outcome of our work, which centers on providing independent analysis and policy recommendations to the government of China."

"In China, as elsewhere, the NRDC operates in accordance with the law."

JOHN KERRY'S SECRETIVE CLIMATE OFFICE DISCUSSED KEEPING PLANS OFF 'PAPER,' EMAILS SHOW

Stil, numerous key members of NRDC's Beijing office have previously worked for China's communist government or left the group for a government position.

For example, Jieqing Zhang, the director of NRDC's China program, was the former deputy director-general of China's International Cooperation Department under the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Kai Duan, an NRDC senior project manager, also worked for a subagency within the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

JingJing Qian, a current senior strategic adviser for the group's China program, formerly worked at China’s Ministry of Science and Technology. Another senior adviser, Yinying Chen, previously worked in "universities, government agencies, state-owned enterprises and private companies," her NRDC profile says.

Hui Huang, a project manager for NRDC's climate and energy project in China, in the past worked for the China Datang Corporation, a state-owned electricity generation firm.

And, Zhiming Pan, the director of NRDC's city project, was previously an official at the Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

"We strive, in all of our offices, to build teams centered around the most knowledgeable and effective staff available," Maxwell said. "In approving our advocacy positions, in China and the United States, we rely on our U.S.-based executive leadership, and no one else."

"And there’s no question that all major emitters of greenhouse gases - including the United States, the European Union, China, India, Russia and others - must work to cut the carbon pollution that’s driving the climate crisis," she continued.

The NRDC also has regularly published blog posts commending China for its climate actions.

"China’s leaders are sending a clear signal that China’s shift from fossil fuels to clean energy is accelerating and that 'new energy' should be the basis for China’s future energy system, rather than fossil fuels," NRDC senior adviser Alvin Lin wrote in 2021.

Another 2021 blog post, from other NRDC experts, claimed China's agreement to a United Nations treaty was "a major global climate win that should also lend a boost of confidence to broader climate talks heating up this year."

Andrew Wetzler, NRDC's chief program officer, wrote in 2018 that the "most exciting work in conservation" was taking place in China.

"China is doing a lot to address its problems at home and to help fight climate change — starting with the wind turbines I saw from my train window as I traveled from Shanghai to Beijing," former NRDC President Rhea Suh wrote in 2016.

JOHN KERRY'S CLIMATE OFFICE RIFE WITH TIES TO FAR-LEFT GREEN GROUPS

The group issued a press release this past April boasting that it had received a thank-you note from the Beijing 2022 Olympics

(I am unable to go further because my ad blocker will not turn off to satisfy the FOX web site. Anyone who can copy and paste the articles would be appreciated,

This is not the first time environmental groups have been discovered embedded in federal agencies. During the Obama years, they were found by a Congressional sub-committee to be writing regulation in the Bureau of Land Management.)

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/news/business/technology/agroterrorism-webinar-explores-multiple-threats-us-food-and-ag-supply

Agroterrorism: Webinar Explores Multiple Threats to U.S. Food and Ag Supply Chain​

The free online event is titled “Agroterrorism Remains a Significant Threat to U.S. Farms and Food Supply” and is set for Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022, at 3 p.m. CDT.(Farm Journal)

By FARM JOURNAL EDITORS September 26, 2022
Andrew Rose, agriculture industry consultant, will join Clinton Griffiths, host of “AgDay TV” and editor of Farm Journal magazine, to discuss the threat of agroterrorism to America’s food supply during Farm Journal’s next Farm Country Update.

The free online event is titled “Agroterrorism Remains a Significant Threat to U.S. Farms and Food Supply” and is set for Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022, at 3 p.m. CDT.​

“There are many threats to our food and ag supply chain including climate, geopolitics and those who seek to harm our ability to provide reliable food for our country,” said Rose. “Clinton and I will explore some known threats to the food and ag supply chains and delve into the agroterrorism aspects of perception, actions and remedies.”

The event will address all aspects of agroterrorism from property vandalism and biological weapons to cyberattacks and corporate espionage. The discussion will include how those events can impact food production, distribution and profitability of agriculture businesses as well as how U.S. farmers can protect themselves from these risks. Audience participants will be able to submit questions to the discussion.

"America's farmers do a fantastic job focusing on producing an abundant food supply," said Griffiths. "Unfortunately, for a host of reasons, there are bad actors hoping to stop, steal or destroy their ability to do that work. Andrew is the person to tell them what to watch for, who may be trying to impact their farm and why."

Register now for this free online event at www.farmjournal.com/farm-country-updates/. All registered attendees will receive on-demand access to the session when available.

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/markets/pro-farmer-analysis/government-roadmap-saf-development

Government Roadmap for SAF Development​

By PRO FARMER EDITORS September 26, 2022

The Biden administration released its plans for boosting Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production. The report (link) lists various challenges ahead and calls for “coordination of U.S. government support” for oilseed cover crops and other near-term lipid crops. The goals:

• Achieving a minimum of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fuel.
• Meeting a goal of supplying sufficient SAF to meet 100% of aviation fuel demand by 2050.
• Scale up the production of SAF to 35 billion gallons per year by 2050. A near-term goal of 3 billion gallons per year is established as a milestone for 2030.

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/news/livestock/beef/us-plans-rule-protect-livestock-farmers-company-retaliation

U.S. Plans Rule to Protect Livestock Farmers From Company Retaliation​

By REUTERS September 26, 2022
Through its role in the President’s Competition Council, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is proposing regulations to prevent meat companies from retaliating against livestock and poultry farmers who speak out on practices such as price-fixing.

On Monday, USDA also said it will work with state attorneys general to investigate anticompetitive practices in the agricultural sector that contribute to inflation. The moves aim to increase competition in the highly concentrated meat industry as part of a broader effort by the Biden administration.

USDA said its new rule would prohibit meat companies from retaliating against farmers and ranchers who take part in "lawful communications" and whistle blowing on price-fixing or who participate in associations. It would also seek to protect farmers who may be at a higher risk for mistreatment because of their race, gender, sexuality or religion, the agency said.

The rule would revise regulations under the Packers and Stockyards Act, a century-old law meant to protect farmers from unfair market practices.

It would identify "unlawfully deceptive practices" that violate the act, including those related to the formation and termination of contracts between farmers and meat companies, the USDA said.

In May, the USDA proposed another rule that would require poultry companies to be more transparent with contract chicken growers. The rules aim to improve on previous USDA efforts to protect farmers.

In February, JBS SA (JBSS3.SA) agreed to pay $52.5 million to settle litigation accusing meatpacking companies of conspiring to limit supply in the U.S. beef market in order to inflate prices and boost profits. Separately, executives who worked for Pilgrim's Pride (PPC.O) and another poultry producer were found not guilty of fixing prices in the poultry sector this year.

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/news/livestock/beef/billion-dollar-beef-plant-searches-home

Billion Dollar Beef Plant Searches for Home

By GREG HENDERSON September 26, 2022

Western Legacy Development Corp. continues to search for a site to build its $1.1 billion beef processing facility after being rejected by two cities in the northern plains.

Meatingplace reports that both Rapid City, S.D. and Cheyenne, WY, are no longer considered in the running for the plant. When Western Legacy first announced its intentions to build the 8,000-head per day plant, Rapid City was the proposed site. But the city’s industrial center developer said the proposed space was not large enough to accommodate a plant that large.

Last week rumors began that Cheyenne might be the next choice for the plant, but that city’s mayor said it could not meet the water demand of a meat plant that size.

Meatingplace reported Megan R. Kingsbury, president and CEO of Western Development, confirmed “that her company is the unnamed developer looking for a site in conversations with Cheyenne, and said Wyoming is but one of several states that the project has approached. She declined to name other locations under consideration, however.”

The plant "still is on track to break ground in 2023," she said, and begin operations by 2026. And that plant is just the first of several, according to Western Legacy's longer-term plans in the meat industry, she said.

"There are a lot of considerations, especially from the point of view of a green development," Kingsbury said. "We have to negotiate with municipalities, and they move on their own timeline. In some cases, they are waiting on federal funding to be able to work to scale with us."

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/markets/pro-farmer-analysis/california-first-state-ban-natural-gas-heaters-furnaces

California First State to Ban Natural Gas Heaters, Furnaces

By PRO FARMER EDITORS September 26, 2022

California is committing to a plan that will make it the first U.S. state to phase out gas-fueled furnaces and water heaters in homes. The state plans to ban the sale of all new natural gas-fired space heaters and water-heating appliances by 2030, under a proposal unanimously approved by the California Air Resources Board last week. The plan directed state agencies to draft a rule for phasing out gas-fueled appliances that will be up for a final vote in 2025.

The proposal is part of a road map of commitments that the state is pursuing to shrink its carbon footprint and comply with federal air-quality standards. The state is targeting a carbon-free grid by 2045.

Get more news and market analysis that isn't available online with a subscription to Pro Farmer. Start a 1-month trial here.

The proposal does not include gas stoves, but about 50 cities and towns in California, including Los Angeles and San Francisco, have adopted regulations that ban or discourage the use of gas-fueled stoves in new buildings.

 

[marsh]

https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/white-house-host-first-hunger-nutrition-and-health-address-more-50-years

White House to Host First Hunger, Nutrition and Health Address in More Than 50 Years​

Rep. James McGovern (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Rules Committee, led an effort to get the White House to host the conference and pushed for $2.5 million to be allocated in a government funding package to host the event.

By JIM WIESEMEYER September 25, 2022

President Joe Biden will deliver remarks Wednesday at the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health, which will be held at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center.

“Too many families don’t know where they’re going to get their next meal,” Biden said in a video announcing the conference," said Biden. “Too many empty chairs around the kitchen table because a loved one was taken by heart disease, diabetes or other diet-oriented diseases, which are some of the leading causes of death in our country.”

Millions of Dollars to Host the Event ​

Rep. James McGovern (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Rules Committee, led an effort to get the White House to host the conference and pushed for $2.5 million to be allocated in a government funding package to host the event.

But this isn't the first hunger event to be hosted at the White House.

Your Next Meal ​

The last time the White House hosted a conference focused on food insecurity was more than 50 years ago, when President Richard Nixon hosted the White House Conference on Food, Nutrition and Health in 1969. That confab led to expansions of the food stamp program and the school lunch program, creation of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, and improved nutrition labeling.

Conference speakers include President Joe Biden, White House Domestic Policy Adviser Susan Rice, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and Chef Jose Andres.

Susan Rice, prefaced the event in a statement saying “no one should have to wonder where their next meal will come from.”

Details on the event can be found here.

Audio on website 30:16 min

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Sep 26, 2022 at 6:12pm
Significant: Nord Stream 1 also reported with problems after NS2 hours ago
26 September 2022
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Mind dump, sans edit

Implications can be massive.

Keep eyes on the Norwegian pipeline. If the Norwegian pipeline also gets problems preventing gas from flowing, a huge famine just got more huge.

To be clear, gas was not flowing through NS1 and Nord Stream 2 when these problems were reported hours ago. Germany already is dying. Nord Stream 1 was already shut and NS2 has never been opened at all due to political issues.

UK and Netherlands need to cut the shit immediately and start pumping gas from the ground. They have gas. They can pump it right now. I don’t want to hear about “Russia cutting off the gas” while I sit here in Netherlands close to a gigantic gas reserve that requires only to open the valves more.

Literally billions of lives likely already are lost. Every drop of oil counts, and every liter of natural gas…while UK and Netherlands leave gas in the ground. This is criminal.

In a more rational world, Germany would firmly request Netherlands begin pumping gas at once. And if Netherlands refused, Germany should come take it. But Germany is busy making Green Suicide while cutting down massive swaths of forest. I told Jordan Peterson when he flies over Germany look out the window at all the forests being prepared for chimneys.

So Green Kult Germans will cut down green forest — wet wood that burns terribly and creates incredible pollution because it has not had seasons to dry — instead of getting gas from UK, Netherlands, and more. This German government is easily as evil as the Nazis and will be instrumental in stacking up a bigger body count. Who will again go up the chimneys, or somewhere. What is Germany’s new body plan?

Germany is a far bigger problem than Russia. Germany is doing a ‘school shooting’ across every school, mall, church, and mosque, across all of Europe.



^^^^^

Michael Yon @MichaelYon
Sep 26, 2022 at 7:31pm
Pipeline Wars — Keep Eyes on the Norwegian Pipes
27 September 2022
Amsterdam, Netherlands

Interruption of the Norwegian route could be used for Casas Belli in service to megacide. Many people can have reason to take advantage of this moment.

 

[marsh]

Pressure Mysteriously Plunges in Nord Stream 1, 2 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Pressure Mysteriously Plunges in Nord Stream 1, 2​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 03:00 PM

Update: It's not just NS2: according to Reuters, Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 1 undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, said Monday it was looking into causes of a drop in pressure in the pipeline.

"Tonight, dispatchers from the Nord Stream 1 control centre recorded a pressure drop on both branches of the gas pipeline," it said in a statement. "The reasons are being clarified."

* * *
Reuters reported that the Russian-owned Nord Stream 2 pipeline experienced a sudden loss in pressure, and a leak was detected in Danish waters on Monday.

"A leak today occurred on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Danish area," said Denmark's energy agency.

Danish authorities said the leak occurred in the exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm island. Danish Maritime Authority announced all vessels must avoid the area:

"Mariners are advised not to navigate within a five nautical miles area of the mentioned position."



Russian energy giant Gazprom, NS2's operator, released a statement that said "marine authorities of Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Russia have been notified immediately" about the pressure drop, adding an "investigation is ongoing."

"Overnight the Nord Stream 2 landfall dispatcher registered a rapid gas pressure drop on Line A of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline," NS2's operator said.

NS2 spokesman Ulrich Lissek told AFP a "large bubble field near Bornholm" was spotted. He noted, "pipeline was never in use, just prepared for technical operation, and therefore filled with gas."

Lissek said pressure inside NS2 usually is about 105 bars. It is now only 7 bars on the German side...

A spokeswoman for the German economy ministry said there's "no clarity" on what caused the NS2's pressure drop:

"We are currently in contact with the authorities concerned in order to clarify the situation. We still have no clarity about the causes and the exact facts."

European NatGas prices weren't affected by the news because the pipeline, intended to double NatGas volumes to Europe under the Baltic Sea to Germany, was never operational after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz canceled it after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year.

The Russian-owned pipeline, which was intended to double the volume of gas flowing from St. Petersburg under the Baltic Sea to Germany, had just been completed and was filled with 300 million cubic metres of gas when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cancelled it shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine. --Reuters

Underwater pipeline leaks can be very dangerous. In July 2021, Mexico's state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), had an underwater pipeline rupture that sparked massive fireballs.

 

[marsh]

'Black' Monday 2.0 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

'Black' Monday 2.0​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 01:01 PM
Well that escalated quickly...

It started in FX...​

The Dollar (DXY) surged higher again today, extending Friday's leap, to its highest since May 2002. The Dollar is up a stunning 4% in the last 5 days - its biggest such move since the peak of the COVID Panic in March 2020...


Source: Bloomberg

On the heels of cable's collapse overnight to record lows...


Source: Bloomberg

And Yuan weakened near record lows...


Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed a solid day amid all the carnage, holding above $19,000...


Source: Bloomberg

The bond market was a bloodbath...​

10Y Gilts exploded a stunning 42bps higher in yield today (up 95bps in 3 days) to its highest since Nov 2008... This is the biggest 3 day jump in yields ever for Gilts...


Source: Bloomberg

After the Italian election results, the spread between Italian and German 10Y debt spiked above 240bps today - its highest since the peak of the COVID crisis in 2020 (despite ECB's grand spread-compression 'tools')...


Source: Bloomberg

In the US there was an utter bloodletting in USTs around the European close as yields exploded higher...


Source: Bloomberg

2Y is leading the entire curve higher...


Source: Bloomberg

HY spreads are starting to blow out but IG is underperforming...


Source: Bloomberg

LQD - the Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF - collapsed to its lowest since the Great Financial Crisis today (below COVID spike lows in price)...


Source: Bloomberg

And before we leave bond land, we note tat the market's expectation of The Fed's 'Terminal Rate' spiked up to 4.85% (in May 2023) today before leaking back a little...


Source: Bloomberg

Equity markets were 'shook'...​

European stocks were mixed with Italy managing outlier gains on such a chaotic day while the FTSE was dumped...


Source: Bloomberg

US futures tumbled overnight amid Cable's collapse but then ramped vertically at the US Cash open. That all faded quickly into the European close and took us to the lows of the day. With an hour to go, bonds and stocks were suddenly panic-bid...but that didn't last. The Nasdaq outperformed for a change with the machines trying their best to cling to unch until a last second rug-pull. That is the lowest close for the S&P 500 since Dec 2020.



The VIX term structure inverted dramatically today with VIX itself topping 32..


Source: Bloomberg

And if real yields are 'real' then the stock market has a long way to go to catch down to reality...


Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were clobbered...​

A strong dollar did commodities no favors with Bloomberg's Commodity Spot Index hitting its lowest in 8 months...


Source: Bloomberg

Gold puked back to its lowest since April 2020..


Source: Bloomberg

Oil plunged back below $80 (WTI) - well below Putin invasion levels...



Finally, we note that while there was a lot of talk about record put buying on Friday, as Brent from SpotGamma explains below, while this is correct, it ignores the fact that there is also record put selling...

And in fact the extreme amount of put premium sold (covering hedges?) suggests more of a capitulative bottom - as we saw in March 2020...



But who will come to the rescue this time?

 

[marsh]

Peter Schiff: Biden Putting America At Risk To Prop Up His Own Image | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Peter Schiff (GOLD): Biden Putting America At Risk To Prop Up His Own Image​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 01:20 PM
Via SchiffGold.com,

Even as the August inflation data was coming out higher than expected, President Joe Biden was bragging about his “Inflation Reduction Act.” Peter Schiff appeared on NewsMax and argued that the president is putting Americans at risk just so he can improve his image as we approach election time.

Peter pointed out that one reason energy prices have come down is because the Biden administration dumped millions of barrels of oil from the strategic reserve into the market.

That’s not going to last. And if you look below the surface, we’re seeing an acceleration in food prices, in shelter, in health care — so, everything is really going up. We just have one thing right now that’s pulled back. But of course, energy prices are still up dramatically from where they were a year ago. So, the inflation tax is falling even more heavy on middle-class Americans now than it was a few months ago.”

Peter said the “Inflation Reduction Act” is inappropriately named. It should be called “The Inflation Acceleration Act.”

That is going to have consequences next year in helping push that inflation rate even higher than the inflation from 2022.”

View: https://youtu.be/LZdCNgecNEY
6:37 min

As far as the strategic oil reserve goes, now Biden will have to refill it at a much higher price. Peter said he doesn’t think they’ll refill it at all.

I think more likely, they’re going to deplete the reserve until it’s empty. And then what are we going to do? Then we’ll have no oil to sell. And what if we have an actual emergency, and we have shortages? We won’t have any strategic reserve to fall back on.”

Peter reminded the audience that inflation is even worse than advertised because the CPI formula is rigged.

You really have to double the CPI to get the actual increase in prices that Americans are experiencing. Take one example, which is shelter, which I think rose about 6.1%, which really was the highest, I think, since the 1980s. If you look at the real cost of housing, … medium home prices are up 30% and mortgage rates have gone from 3.1 to 6.1. So, the cost of buying a home and paying a mortgage in the last two years is up by 84%. … And of course, rents are skyrocketing too. And so, what the government claims as the increase in the cost of shelter is just a small fraction of what Americans are actually paying for shelter.”

The anchor pointed out that interest rates need to rise above the CPI in order to tame inflation. Meanwhile, we’re already technically in a recession. Peter agreed we are in a recession, as much as the Biden administration and others, including the Fed, try to deny it.

We’ve already had two quarters of falling GDP. We’re about to have a third, because I think this quarter is going to be another negative quarter. And I think the fourth quarter will also be negative.”

And Peter said the anchor was also correct in asserting rates need to go much higher to tackle inflation.

You have to have positive real interest rates so you encourage people to save, which means more capital investment and more supply. And you’ve got to discourage people from borrowing, so you have less demand. But we still have negative real interest rates.”

Even with the Fed’s 75 basis point hike at the September meeting (after this interview), real rates are still -5%.

That is fueling an inflation fire. And of course, the only way to really fight inflation would be a combination of tight money and contractionary fiscal policy. We need big spending cuts coming out of Congress. But unfortunately, they’re doing the opposite. They’re stimulating consumption with more deficit spending.”

The Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and student loan forgiveness all add to demand.

"It’s acting at cross purposes.”

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

$400 Billion!? Biden Student Loan Forgiveness To Cost Far More Than Initial Estimate

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 02:20 PM

President Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness plan will cost at least $400 billion over three decades, blowing away initial estimates of $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated.

The plan, a handout for the middle and upper classes (and will only raise GDP by 0.1%), will provide debt relief of $10,000 per borrower, subject to income caps of $125,000 per individual or $250,000 per household - while Pell Grant recipients will receive an additional $10,000 of forgiveness, Bloomberg reports.

According to the CBO, the moves will cancel $430 billion in overall debt - while Biden's suspension of student loan payments through the end of 2022 could cost an additional $20 billion - notwithstanding changes Biden's administration has made to income-driven repayment plans, which the Committee for an Responsible Federal Budget pegged at an additional $120 billion.

Around 40 million Americans could receive some level of student loan relief under the plan - with half potentially having their entire debt canceled, according to the White House.

Roughly 8 million borrowers, whose income is already on file at the department, will have their loans automatically forgiven without having to apply, according to the Education Department. Everyone else will have to apply in early October, when the agency expects to release the form.

GOP lawmakers and state attorneys general have said they are exploring the possibility of a lawsuit to overturn the policy before it goes into effect. One conservative group, the Job Creators Network, has said it plans to sue the administration once the Education Department guidance is released. -WaPo

To put the plan in context, the so-called "Inflation Reduction Act" which passed in August is estimated to reduce deficits over 10 years by $58 billion, with an additional $180 billion reduction factored in due to anticipated new tax revenue from more audits.

"This might be the most costly executive action in history," said CRFB President Maya MacGuineas in a statement, adding "It’s unacceptable that the President would implement it without offsets and without Congressional approval."

The CBO report was requested by Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) amid criticism from GOP lawmakers, who say the debt forgiveness plan is unfair to students who have paid off their loans, and taxpayers who never attended college.

 

[marsh]

Markets Crash As Monetary Laughing Gas Fades | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Markets Crash As Monetary Laughing Gas Fades

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 11:40 AM
Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The main issue in the economy is that there are two generations of market participants who have only witnessed expansionary policies. That is why the most pressing question for investors is not where earnings are headed or what the rate of change in economic growth is, but when central banks will pivot.

The Federal Reserve and other big central banks have caused a massive crisis. On the one hand, major central banks’ balance sheets have stayed intact in local currency in 2022, and the path of rate hikes is quite accommodating. Markets, on the other hand, are collapsing. How is this possible? Because central banks believe their actions carry no consequences as there is a legion of economists that twist facts to say there is no problem. However, the contrary is true. Markets and politicians are so accustomed to easy money that even the slightest normalization causes havoc around the world.

The first issue is that the great majority of the world’s $90 trillion in reserves is invested in a carry trade against the US currency. The second is that negative nominal and real rates have zombified the corporate world and led governments to feel that debt is unimportant. The third issue is significantly more serious. Investors and governments have been made to believe that announcements of rate hikes and liquidity reductions should be ignored because policymakers ignore them anyhow.

All of this has resulted in an overindebted environment in which corporations with weak strategies found adequate cash to survive, and where multiple expansion in every sector, from listed to private ventures, was not an outlier but the norm. And this excess, which has been sustained over the previous fourteen years by absurdly lax policies conducted in times of expansion and recession, has fostered an addiction to gradually more aggressive monetary operations. Governments, businesses, families, and market participants are dissatisfied with a normalization process that keeps central banks’ balance sheets unnaturally elevated or interest rates significantly below inflation. They require more, quickly and consistently.

We are taught that central banks must choose between recession and inflation. This is a logical fallacy. Central banks’ mandate is not to design bloated leveraged growth; rather, it is to maintain price stability.

Recessions are not caused by central banks raising interest rates. They are the result of years of excessive debt, malinvestment, and reckless risk-taking.

Markets are crumbling because the seemingly unstoppable expansion of prior years was based on a monetary illusion. Monetary laughing gas makes you smile but does not cure.

Many analysts and investors have warned for years about undue complacency and unjustifiable valuations, only to be dismissed as doomsayers because all you had to do was follow the Fed.

“Do not fight central banks,” was the warning, and most of us took it to heart. When central banks claimed they had to cease printing money because they had overshot in 2020, a sizable segment of the investor base rejected the idea. Many people began to argue that central banks had nothing to do with inflation and that they should keep slashing rates and printing money (“injecting liquidity,” they asserted). However, even though the DJ continued to spin records, the music came to a halt.

With a minor fall in global money supply, no substantial reduction in central bank balance sheets, and extremely gradual rate hikes announced for months on end, markets have plummeted. However, markets cannot accept even minor changes. The junkie requires another fix, a large and steadily increasing fix.

With negative real and nominal interest rates, the economy does not improve. It is in a worse situation. Negative real and nominal interest rates have resulted in a bloated, sluggish, and unproductive economy in which the inefficient are bailed out while the efficient are penalized. When money velocity fell, productivity growth stalled, and debt hit all-time highs, hardly one seemed to notice. Why? Because markets were rising, even the world’s worst-managed corporations could obtain loans at negative real rates.

Some commentators now worry that central banks are tightening too quickly, despite the fact that they were silent during the most strange and dramatic increase of the monetary base in recent history.

Those who championed a $20 trillion expansion in 2020 are partially responsible for the 2022 crash.

However, there is a more serious issue. The current crisis, which policymakers have manufactured and allowed, will harm even people who did not benefit or profit from the excess. Unsuspecting citizens with no exposure to equities or bonds and who have never witnessed private equity valuations skyrocket will suffer from stagflation as their real salaries and deposit savings disappear and some lose their jobs.

The current global economic trainwreck demonstrates the deeply unethical nature of printing money and allowing central banks and governments to become lenders and providers of last resort. It harms the middle class on its way in and destroys it on its way out.

Artificial creation of money is never neutral. It favors the first recipients of newly generated currency, the government and the indebted, disproportionately, while severely harming deposits savings and real wages.

The 2020 stimulus plan was the largest ruse ever played on humanity. It was unnecessary in the first place, because all that happened was that governments locked us all up because of a health issue. It was unnecessary to incentivize debt, expenditure, or money supply. It just established false bottlenecks in the chain of stimuli, resulting in a worse scenario.

You received a check from a government that is now taking that amount and more through inflation, the tax on the poor, and a larger tax burden. As a result, there is more inflation, less growth, negative real wage growth, and now market collapses. It has resulted in larger governments and poorer citizens.

No. I’ll say it again. The Federal Reserve does not have to choose between recession and inflation. They must decide between logic and financial repression.

Those who complain about central banks raising interest rates too quickly should have warned about the 2020 lunacy. It no longer matters whether central banks pivot. The fallout from stimulus initiatives is already affecting economic growth and company profitability. Even if rate hikes were slower, markets would have seen a valuation reality check. Bubbles burst. Always. The only remaining question is when.

 

[marsh]

OJ Squeeze Ahead? Tropical Threat Looms For Florida's Citrus Groves | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

OJ Squeeze Ahead? Tropical Threat Looms For Florida's Citrus Groves​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 11:20 AM

Orange juice futures in New York could be on the cusp of an upside breakout to a new six-year high as Tropical Storm Ian may develop into a major hurricane, with a projected path toward Florida late next week.

Weather models on Sunday morning indicate Ian could become a major category four hurricane by Tuesday near Pinar del Rio, the most western province in Cuba. The storm is expected to hold the intensity until early Thursday when the track shows weakening to a Cat. 3 in the Gulf of Mexico and then Cat. 1 as it hones in on Florida.



Orlando's FOX 35 meteorologist Brittany Lockley said as Ian comes closer to Florida, the storm will start to encounter unfavorable conditions, such as wind shear that will decrease intensity.

The ag community closely monitors the storm's developments because citrus production in the state, the nation's largest orange juice producer, could be impacted.

Here's the US Department of Agriculture's map of where citrus production in Florida resides, some of which appears to be in the storm's path if models are correct (though we must note models are preliminary and could change).



Bloomberg provides a backdrop of the adverse weather conditions (due to La Nina) impacting citrus production in the Americas, also outlining the citrus greening disease decimating crops in the Sunshine State.

Supply concerns have mounted as global supplies are reaching historically low levels after two years of dry weather in Brazil, said Andres Padilla, an analyst at Rabobank International. The South American country is the top global exporter and stockpiles are at the lowest level since 2017, according to export association CitrusBR.

In Florida, growers are already facing one of the lowest crops on record after decades battling the citrus greening disease, said Ray Royce, executive director at Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, which represents about 15% of the state's planted acreage. Growing areas already have very saturated ground after rains over the past two weeks, said Royce, and the disease can be more harmful when trees are under stress due to adverse weather.

Looking at the most-active orange juice futures contract on ICE Futures US, prices have traded laterally since mid-April, failing to break above $1.90 per pound. If storm developments worsen the prospects for the citrus crop in Florida -- there could be a push higher in prices.



All eyes are on Ian's path and let's hope landfall isn't anywhere near citrus groves in Florida because this would impact supply and increase breakfast inflation.

 

[marsh]

(UK/EU)

Kami-Kwase, Debt And Despair | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Kami-Kwase, Debt And Despair

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 10:20 AM
By Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank

The Tory aligned newspaper The Telegraph described the reaction to Friday’s UK budget as ‘hysterical’ and ‘almost deranged’. As cable dived past its former 1985 low, the Chancellor pledged over the weekend that even more tax cuts were on their way. The market responded with the moniker of ‘Kami-Kwase’ and speculation emerged that emergency measures from the BoE may now be inevitable. As Asian investors continued to batter the pound, former MPC member Adam Posen tweeted over the weekend about the potential for BoE FX intervention. Additionally, speculation has been gathering pace as to whether the BoE could step in with an inter-meeting rate hike to stave off the threat of further selling pressure, though there are no guarantees that this would be successful. In the Tory press reports have appeared that PM Truss’s new government may already be facing rebellion with some Tory backbenchers reportedly considering refusing to vote for the government’s finance bill or even submitting letters of no-confidence.

It is not difficult to explain the triggers behind the heavy sell-off in both GBP and gilts. Few would argue with the assertion that Friday’s announcement from UK Chancellor Kwarteng comprised of the biggest fiscal giveaway since the Barber boom budget in 1972. Notwithstanding any comparisons with how that ended in tears, this month’s package is expected to cost GBP161 bln over 5 years and has been followed by an announcement from the UK Debt Management Office that it will lift its gilts issuance target for this year by GBP62.4 bln, even more that the Bloomberg survey median had pointed to. The extra gilts sales will coincide with quantitative tightening from the BoE.

The Bank confirmed last week that it wants to reduce the size of its balance sheet by GBP 80 bln over the next 12 months. It was nothing short of indigestion that resulted in investors dumping UK debt, with the 5 yr. gilt yields posting a record 50 bps surge during the day on Friday.

Although the Chancellor, a close friend and ally of PM Truss, stated that the budget is aiming to unleashing supply-side factors, the spending is unashamedly supportive of demand. This puts fiscal policy in direct conflict with the BoE’s monetary targets which are aimed at curtailing demand and forcing down inflation. Consequently, expectation that the Bank will have to tighten even more aggressively had surged even before the pound reached this morning's sorry levels, with the market already contemplating the possibility of even larger incremental hikes. This is clearly bad news for UK stocks. It is clear that ‘moderate’ rate hikes from the BoE this year have done very little to support the pound against the surging USD. Thus speculation has been sparked that the MPC may be forced into considering huge EM style rate hikes to prevent further sharp losses in the value of GBP. This, however, could test BoE credibility, could pressure demand aggressively and thus could undo the impact of Kwarteng’s tax cuts, leaving only the legacy of higher debt.

Importantly, the UK is burdened with a record current account deficit/GDP ratio. A 2017 statement by former BoE Chief Carney that the UK is reliant on the kindness of strangers is a reference to the fact that GBP is vulnerable to a downward adjustment if foreign investors are reluctant to fund the deficit.

UK’s fundamentals are currently characterised by high levels of debt and debt issuance, low growth/recession, high inflation and weak productivity. It is hardly an attractive backdrop for investors, which explains why GBP tanked on Friday and continued its spiral lower overnight before reclaiming the GBP/USD1.06 level this morning.

While UK assets stole the headlines, they were not the only ones out in the cold on Friday. EUR/USD hit a 20-year low. Wall St indices closed in the red, though losses were trimmed late in the session. Crude oil and gold were also weaker.

Week ahead

Whether or not the BoE is forced to announce a potentially large emergency rate hike will draw attention over the coming days. That said, a heavy slate of Fed speakers this week means that market attention will be pulled back to the outlook for US rates. The hawkish nature of Fed commentary, combined with fears of weak growth in China and slower activity levels elsewhere have reinforced the appeal of the safe haven dollar. On Friday the DXY index touched a 20-year intraday high, and EUR/USD dropped below 0.9670 intraday. Further losses for EUR/USD were then notched up overnight. The weakness of the global economy is on full display in IMF data. The FT is reporting that IMF lending to economically troubled countries has hit a record high, to the extent that concerns are rising as to the reach of the lender’s balance sheet. USD strength is a contributing factor in weakness for many economies, insofar as it raises the prices of dollar denominated assets such as energy and increases the costs of funding USD currency debt. Insofar as weakness in the global economy boosts demand for safe havens, there may now be something of a USD supportive feed-back loop in place.

In Europe, the markets will be digesting the implications of yesterday’s Italian elections. A coalition led by the Far-Right Brothers of Italy have won a decisive victory, putting Giorgia Meloni in pole position to become the country’s next PM. Meloni has attempted to soften the position of her party in recent months by emphasising her support for Ukraine and stepping back from anti-EU rhetoric. This position, however, will be closely watched, particularly given the support for the far-right in Sweden’s recent election and given that risk the French voters may also chose to bring the far-right into the mainstream.

Germany’s September IFO business climate survey will be released later this morning followed by the August Chicago Fed activity index. Key data later in the week include US August durable goods, September consumer confidence and a Q2 GDP revision. German September CPI data will be released on Thursday. In the UK, the labour party conference will have plenty to say about the current state of the UK economy.

 

[marsh]

"We're Living In Alice In Wonderland" - Dallas Fed Survey Slumps Amid "Irresponsibility Of Biden Admin" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"We're Living In Alice In Wonderland" - Dallas Fed Survey Slumps Amid "Irresponsibility Of Biden Admin"​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 08:00 AM

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey came in well below expectations for September, tumbling back down from -12.9 to -17.2 (against expectations of a modest rebound to -9.0).



Under the hood the picture is even uglier with the six-month-ahead outlook plunging back near post-COVID lows and labor market signals (for jobs and wages) both making new cycle lows...



This is the 5th straight month below zero - signaling contraction - for the headline survey and one glimpse through the respondents' comments confirms things are not a rosy as the Biden administration - with its 'barely any inflation' and 'best economic growth ever' narrative...

• There is no optimism in the most positive outlook. Interest rate hikes will hit our industry hard. Poor federal polices and spending are just more economic “piling on.”
• We have seen a dramatic shift in consumer behavior and it is impacting our volume. Beginning in May, demand for our premium products started to wane as consumers shifted to less-expensive brands. This has accelerated as fuel and other costs have risen.
• Sales have started to slow this summer, as has our general outlook on business over the short and long term. Inflation and general uncertainty seem high with customers; as a luxury product [producer], we expect sales to fall as customers cut discretionary spending.
• We continue to be very busy; however, it feels like things are starting to slow down some, and I believe we will be slower in the coming months than we have been. It is very hard to tell what inflation with rising interest rates will do for discretionary spending, which drives a lot of the products we make.
• We are beginning to see a slowdown in requests for bids on projects.
• Our order rate has decreased over the past month. We are only working four days on some of our equipment.
• We see the general economic situation worsening, but our customers are still buying because the oil industry is still making money and they see a bright future even though they will not talk about it. Therefore, we have hired a few new people to support the business that is coming over the next couple of months.

But the real punchlines:

• We are living in Alice in Wonderland ... it just gets worser and worser.
• There is a decline in optimism with regard to the business climate as well as our ability to stabilize it. The loss of domestic tranquility, the irresponsibility of governors and the Biden administration, and the loss of common defense and border security will have long-range and far-reaching consequences.

All pretty much guaranteeing a recession is here... and winter is coming.

 

[marsh]

(UK)

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Pound Tumbles After BoE Issues Brief, Toothless Statement Over FX Turmoil

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 08:40 AM
After numerous media leaks this morning that the Bank of England would address the historic, record drop in sterling - and, according to some, perhaps even intervene - moments ago the BOE issued a brief statement which is certain to disappoint anyone hoping for some imminent action from the central bank.



Here is the full 3-paragraph statement:

The Bank is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.​

​

In recent weeks, the Government has made a number of important announcements. The Government’s Energy Price Guarantee will reduce the near-term peak in inflation. Last Friday the Government announced its Growth Plan, on which the Chancellor has provided further detail in his statement today. I welcome the Government’s commitment to sustainable economic growth, and to the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility in its assessment of prospects for the economy and public finances.​

​

The role of monetary policy is to ensure that demand does not get ahead of supply in a way that leads to more inflation over the medium term. As the MPC has made clear, it will make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting of the impact on demand and inflation from the Government’s announcements, and the fall in sterling, and act accordingly. The MPC will not hesitate to change interest rates as necessary to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.​

​

Not surprisingly, with the BoE confirming just how toothless the central bank has become in light of the current FX crisis, just as we warned earlier...



... cable is now tumbling as expected, and - absent any imminent intervention from the BOE - is likely to take out its overnight lows shortly.

 

[marsh]

Nomura Hikes Fed 'Terminal Rate' Forecast, Warns "Everything Else Is An Emerging Market" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Nomura Hikes Fed 'Terminal Rate' Forecast, Warns "Everything Else Is An Emerging Market"​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 10:00 AM
On Friday night, the Nomura US Econ Research Team revised up their Federal Reserve 'Terminal Rate' forecast to 5.25-5.50% - which they then believe will be followed by a faster pace of CUTS in 2024:

Growing evidence that the short-term “Neutral Rate” has increased on 1) looser than expected financial conditions, 2) resilient labor markets and 3) still-elevated inflation suggesting that the Nominal “Neutral Rate” is likely higher than 2-2.5%, implying any given level of Fed policy will thus be more accomodative than previously believed.

Consequently, we have revised up our “Terminal Rate” forecast by 75bps to 5.25-5.50% and now expect rate hikes of 75bps in Nov and Dec ‘22, followed by 50bps in Feb and 25bps in Mar ‘23.



We maintain our below-consensus growth outlook, including our expectations of a recession starting in Q4 2022 and peak unemployment rate of around 6% in 2024.

That said, a higher neutral rate implies the current monetary policy stance is more accommodative than we had thought previously, suggesting greater risk the recession start is delayed to Q1 2023. While we continue to expect cuts starting in September 2023 at an initial pace of 25bp per meeting, we believe the pace will accelerate to 50bp per meeting in Q2 2024.



We continue to expect cuts to start in Sep ’23, at an initial pace of 25bps per meeting; however, after five 25bps cuts (three in ’23, two in ’24), we now expect the Fed to accelerate the pace in Q2 2023 to 50bps / meeting as the risk of inflation rebounding diminishes, resulting in an end-2024 policy rate of 1.125%

And as Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes, the market continues resetting the Fed’s “Terminal Rate” higher (Apr23 Fed Funds now implying ~4.80)...



...and with it, US Real Rates alongside US Dollar are both pushing to new multi-year highs, in what is a pure “financial conditions tightening” impulse that is poison for Risk-Assets.

And adding to the collective macro mess, there is the additional calamity emanating out of both the UK and Europe as well, as collapsing Currencies create a doom-loop of hastened / escalated Central Bank Rate hike projections, with both governments pursuing looser Fiscal policy to offset the (negative) Energy- and Growth- shocks.

The last month's FX performance against the dollar - amid widening rate-differentials and soaring current account deficits in the rest of the world on "exported inflation" and the energy crisis - McElligott risibly comments that "everything else is an emerging market."



And if you thought - well it can't get any worse, surely The Fed will stop now... - think again as Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting Core CPI just ticked higher vs the last reading on 9/13/22 for MoM (0.51) and YoY (6.64) - offering another catalyst for further extension of the USD rates move...



And finally, as macro condition continues to destabilize, the Nomura strategist notes that we have seen US Equities Vol / Skew / Put Skew / Crash finally go “bid” after 6+ months in the wilderness as the probability of the “Left Tail” scenario has fattened, with “Vol of Vol” VVIX seeing its second-largest 1d move (higher) since Nov ‘21...



Which has pushed Nomura's CTA Trend model to '100% Short' across all the US majors...



And as the green box shows above, the 'levels to buy' will need a serious squeeze before any flip is realized.

 

[marsh]

Ukrainian Territories To Be Absorbed Into Russia By Week's End: Lawmaker | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Ukrainian Territories To Be Absorbed Into Russia By Week's End: Lawmaker​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 07:20 AM

With four occupied regions of Ukraine currently in the midst of a five-day referendum on whether to join the Russian federation, a Kremlin lawmaker told state media over the weekend that the territories are likely to be absorbed by Russia on September 30.

"Taking into account the preliminary results of the referendums and Russia’s readiness to acknowledge them, the accession of the territories is likely to take place as early as on September 30," the unnamed member of Russia’s State Duma said to TASS.

Voting is set to conclude Tuesday in Donestk, Luhansk and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, meaning as early as Wednesday or even Thursday announcements of results are likely to trickle out, paving the way for a potential Friday official declaration.

While Russian forces do not yet control the entirety of each of these territories, their annexation would constitute Ukraine losing almost 20% of its geographic territory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin might himself make the proclamation following the referendums, which Ukrainian leaders along with Washington have dismissed as a "sham" - saying they won't be recognized. Russian media reports indicate:

The lawmaker said Russian President Vladimir Putin could take part in the procedure on September 30. "I don’t know if he will [participate], but he is likely to do so," the MP said.

Given that on Saturday Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vowed new territories would be under Russia’s "full protection" - there is more than likely to be a major uptick in the intensity of fighting to follow the referenda results announcement in eastern Ukraine.



Meanwhile, much has been made of both Putin's and top national security official Dmitry Medvedev's nuclear rhetoric of the past days. What's being largely overlooked in Western media headlines are the Friday statements from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who stressed that Moscow's nuclear doctrine hasn't changed.

"We are not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons," Ryabkov said.

"The criteria for their use are outlined in Russia’s military doctrine." He said that their use can only be contemplated if Russia is facing an "existential threat" and is forced to defend itself on that basis of a direct attack on its soil.

 

[marsh]

(UK)

Here Are The Seven Policy Options To Address The Sterling Crisis | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Here Are The Seven Policy Options To Address The Sterling Crisis​

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 07:00 AM
by Chris Turner, James Smith, & Antoine Bouvet via ING,

Sterling has fallen close to 10% on a trade-weighted basis in a little under two months. That's a lot for a major reserve currency. And traded volatility levels for the pound are those you would expect during an emerging market currency crisis. We take a look at the (unpalatable) policy options available to stabilise sterling.

Defining a crisis​

Unlike equity markets where in excess of a 20% fall from a peak is called a bear market, definitions in FX markets are a little looser. Suffice to say that GBP/USD is the worst performing G10 currency this year at -20% year-to-date, just pipping the Japanese yen to that position. (Japan intervened last week to support its currency for the first time since 1998).

Typical emerging market currency crises since the early 1990s have seen exchange rates fall anywhere near 50-80%. The large size of these adjustments has typically been a function of the breaking of an exchange rate regime/peg.

The UK has learned from its experiences in ERM II in 1992 and has operated a free-floating FX regime ever since – arguing against sterling following some of the outsized EM FX adjustments outlined above.

However, the 3.5% decline in Asia overnight and the now 28% levels for one week traded GBP/USD volatility (close to the highs in March 2020) certainly marks trading out as ‘disorderly’. Disorderly markets normally prompt a response from policymakers.

As we go to press, headlines suggest that the Bank Of England (BoE) is considering making a statement later today. Below we take a look at the possible policy responses and their likelihood.

GBP/USD sinks towards parity - one week volatility surges


ING, Refinitiv

Sterling stabilisation measures – a look at the policy options​

1. Fiscal U-turn. Comments from the UK government over the weekend that the Treasury is mulling further tax breaks in coming months, would suggest ministers are unlikely to change course imminently. But mounting pressure, perhaps coupled with comments from rating agencies over coming weeks, means investors will be looking for signs of at least a partial policy U-turn. Ministers may emphasise that tax measures will be coupled with spending cuts, and there are hints at that in today’s papers. We also wouldn’t rule out the government looking more closely at a wider windfall tax on energy producers, something which the prime minister has signalled she is against. Such a policy would materially reduce the amount of gilt issuance required over the coming year.
2. BoE to suspend QT. First inflation, then fiscal concerns, and finally a broader run on sterling and sterling-denominated assets. In all three cases, gilts have been at the wrong end of the stick. One particular concern for gilts is policy cooperation between the Bank of England and the Treasury. Be it on inflation, fiscal, or on confidence in the currency, markets have the distinct, and unnerving, impression that the two institutions in charge of economic management in the country are working at cross purposes. Gilts are caught in the crossfire. Despite this list of legitimate macro concerns, we also suspect that the magnitude of the move in gilts these past days (adding up to roughly 100bp moves at the front-end of the curve in two days) has been magnified by worsening liquidity. We have been highlighting the deterioration in gilt trading conditions all year. The BoE has added fuel to the fire by seeking to reduce its gilt holdings. In an environment where private investors are justifiably nervous about greater gilt issuance, and also greater gilt riskiness, the BoE is adding to gilt supply, and will soon engage in outright sales. A low-hanging fruit, in our view, would be to suspend quantitative tightening until market conditions improve.
3. Emergency BoE rate hike. The collapse in sterling over recent days has unsurprisingly sparked expectations of an inter-meeting rate hike. That should not be ruled out, though we suspect the committee will be reluctant. Thursday’s BoE decision suggests the BoE is – rightly or wrongly - less concerned about sterling than a lot of market commentary is suggesting they should be. As a rough guide, the 7-8% fall in trade-weighted sterling since the start of August, if persistent, would add somewhere between 0.6-0.8ppt to inflation at its peak. That’s not insignificant, but is it enough in itself to necessitate an inter-meeting hike? Probably not. But the key question is whether an emergency rate hike would do all that much. Certainly, it would need to be bold, and likely in excess of 75bp. A bold rate hike would prompt further complications, too. Rate hikes of the magnitude now being priced by investors would start to be highly problematic for mortgage holders and corporate borrowers. While the vast majority of UK mortgages are fixed, around a third of those are locked in for less than two years. For corporates, the BoE estimated last year that 400bps worth of rate hikes (from near-zero) would take the proportion of firms with low-interest coverage ratios to a record high. In the first instance, we’re more likely to see BoE hawkishness channelled through speeches this week, emphasising that it can move more forcefully if needed in November. Indeed, the pendulum is increasingly swinging towards a 75bp hike (or perhaps more) at that meeting. We would also say that the BoE may be psychologically scarred from the events in 1992, where defensive rate hikes failed to keep sterling in the ERM II mechanism.
4. FX Intervention. Last week Japan intervened to support their currency for the first time since 1998. We do not think FX intervention is a credible option for the UK. The UK only has net FX reserves of $80bn, less than two months’ worth of import cover. The adage in FX markets is that no intervention is better than failed intervention. Instead, we may see building interest in the G20 central bankers and finance ministers meeting on 12 October. Will the FX language in the Communique get tweaked to show concern over disorderly dollar strength and hint at joint FX intervention?
5. Dollar swap lines. Typically in a currency crisis, we hear about the need for additional access to dollar funding through dollar swap lines. For reference, the BoE already has a permanent and unlimited dollar swap with the Federal Reserve. However, these lines are designed to provide support for dollar funding challenges and not for Balance of Payments needs. Dollar funding does not seem to be a problem for UK banks, but the BoE could make a pre-emptive move here by re-introducing an 84-day dollar auction in addition to the current 7-day facility.
6. IMF Flexible Credit Line. Given many references to Friday’s UK budget being the most generous since the Barber budget of the early 1970s, there will, unfortunately, be comparisons drawn to the UK seeking an IMF bailout in 1976. We assume the stigma of going to the IMF would prompt some aggressive UK policy adjustments beforehand, but just for reference, a good quality credit, Chile, (sovereign-rated A/A-) recently received an $18bn ‘precautionary’ Flexible Credit Line (FCL) from the IMF, joining the likes of Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Poland. Chile’s FCL was eight times its IMF quota. The UK receiving eight times its IMF quota ($200bn) would seem unlikely in that the IMF already has a total of $144bn lent out according to some estimates and the lack of conditionality of an FCL may not be a good signal given the nature of the sterling crisis.
7. Capital controls. Highly unlikely. Capital controls have been used by Russia this year to support the rouble. But Margaret Thatcher dismantled capital controls in the UK in 1979. A reversal of such measures would be a complete anathema to the new Truss government’s agenda of deregulation and liberalisation.

At this stage, we think UK authorities will probably just have to let sterling find its right level. The UK has a reserve currency so it can always issue debt – it’s just a question of the right price.

We are still bullish on the dollar this year as Fed leads the deflationary charge and global growth slows. That means GBP/USD is now vulnerable to a break of parity later this year, while - quite unexpectedly - EUR/GBP can make a run towards the March 2020 high of 0.95, with outside risk to the 2008 high of 0.98.

 

[marsh]

Export Slowdown Could Bring More Bad News For Yuan | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Export Slowdown Could Bring More Bad News For Yuan

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 06:15 PM
By George Lei, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

Chinese exports are poised to slow further in the remainder of 2022, with various high-frequency datasets pointing to cooling global demand. Exports, a key growth engine that has lifted the Chinese economy since the pandemic, are sputtering. That could bring more bad news for the yuan.

South Korean data in September through the 20th suggest exports to China fell 14% year-over-year versus a 1% decline in exports to the US. This may be an ominous sign that global demand for consumer goods made in China -- to which Korea provides inputs earlier in the supply chain -- is softening, Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Monday. Hong Kong’s exports also sank 14.3% in August, the most since the pandemic first began in early 2020.



Plunging freight rates also point to cooling exports: A 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles fetched $3,779 last week, below $4,000 for the first time since September 2020 and half what it was three months ago, Bloomberg reported. More declines are expected in the coming weeks, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.

The news couldn’t come at a worse time, with the offshore Chinese yuan now trading at the weakest since May 2020 -- just a stone’s throw away from its record low -- and economists rushing to cut China’s 2023 economic-growth forecasts. Dollar-yuan may need to go a lot higher to boost China’s exports meaningfully; the Chinese currency has advanced versus most of Beijing’s trade partners, outside of the US and Hong Kong, for much of 2022.



Chinese exporters already are holding foreign currencies more tightly. The conversion ratio -- which measures the share of export revenues converted into yuan -- fell from 57% in the first eight months of 2021 to 36% this year through August, according to Macquarie economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang. If that ratio holds steady, an extra $118 billion could have been sold by exporters into yuan, Macquarie estimates.

Falling Chinese export volumes and expectations of a weaker yuan will only make exporters more reluctant to sell their dollars. The yuan’s downtrend isn’t likely to reverse unless that negative feedback loop is broken.

 

[marsh]

Oil Prices Set To Spike Again Due To Struggling Global Supply Chain | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Oil Prices Set To Spike Again Due To Struggling Global Supply Chain

MONDAY, SEP 26, 2022 - 06:20 PM

A short respite from rising oil and gasoline prices is about to end as 2022 comes to a close. The reasons are numerous, but almost all of them relate directly to the supply chain. Mainstream estimates suggest a return to $100 per barrel for the Brent which would inflate gasoline prices back to around $5 per gallon on average in the US. These projections are likely conservative.

It should be noted that it's unusual for the mainstream financial media or mainstream analysts to suggest the idea of a renewed energy price spike. With mid-term elections closing in, higher gas prices would put a damper on any chances democrats might have in maintaining a political majority. Stagflationary pressures already top the list of public concerns in the US, far above social issues and geopolitical conflicts. Higher energy costs would be more than unwelcome going into winter.

This is the reason why Joe Biden has been so exuberant about releasing oil supplies from the US strategic reserves for the past several months. Biden's plan unleashed 1 million barrels per day into the supply chain and is set to end in October. The reserves are now depleted to the lowest levels since 1984, with gas prices STILL nearly double what they were when Biden entered the White House. It is essentially market manipulation at the expense of US strategic readiness and for the express purpose of political gain.

That said, Biden's ability to continue pouring oil onto the markets to keep gas prices down is dwindling, and even if he is able to continue the strategy past October, a red sweep in November would bring challenges and a freeze on reserves anyway.

Another factor is the failing attempts at a nuclear deal with Iran and the lifting of sanctions by the west. The free flow of Iranian oil will not be happening anytime soon, leaving western access to a major oil pool off the table.

The next issue is the ever changing situation in the Ukraine war. Russia is already receiving the brunt of the blame for global inflation, but this is clearly nonsense when we take into account the fact that inflation hit 40 year highs months before Russian invaded Ukraine and gas prices were rising well in advance of the conflict.

The accusation may become true in certain respects, though, as Russia cuts natural gas supplies to Europe and the EU flails around this winter looking for replacement energy sources. Europe's desperate search for oil, coal and gas will siphon supplies away from the global markets leaving all other countries with less. The obvious result will be much higher prices for everyone.

There is also the issue of the stronger US dollar. As the petro-currency, most oil around the world has been purchased in dollars which allows Americans to enjoy lower prices. However, sanctions and economic tensions between east and west have led to a rising trend of bilateral trade agreements cutting out the dollar as the reserve currency. Furthermore, the strong dollar has also led to turmoil in FX markets and in foreign currencies like the Japanese Yen, which may lead to increased dumping of US Treasury holdings by international creditors. We could soon be facing a coordinated effort by central banks to crush the dollar even as the Federal Reserve seeks to strengthen the Greenback through interest rate hikes.

Barring a sudden crisis event such as an expansion of the war in Ukraine or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, oil prices are still set to rise as supply chain issues multiply.

The Department if Energy plans to replenish strategic reserves by purchasing oil stocks into the future at prices set today. The argument is that this will increase domestic oil production. The problem is that this discounts inflation in production costs for shale oil drillers. Set prices would only work as long as drillers can continue to make a reasonable profit. If they can't, they will simply shut down. By extension, the plan also assumes that drillers will be able to produce excess beyond market demand to sell to the government.

If the government gets a first purchase arrangement, then drillers will not be able to supply as much oil to regular consumers and prices will continue to spike. If the government does not get a first purchase contract, then any excess will probably be snapped up by European buyers. Either way, general consumers will not enjoy any benefits of increased drilling if it occurs, and Biden's fraudulent green energy agenda will only restrict oil producers even more. All in all, every observable factor suggests high oil and gas prices in the near term.

 

[marsh]

European Countries Are On The Brink Of Economic Disaster, OECD Says

European countries teeter on the brink of recession and could be pushed over the edge by a harsh winter, while the continent's largest economy faces a definite recession.

dailycaller.com

European Countries Are On The Brink Of Economic Disaster, OECD Says​

MICAELA BURROWREPORTER
September 26, 202211:21 AM ET

European countries teeter on the brink of recession and could be pushed over the edge by a harsh winter, while the continent’s largest economy faces a definite recession, according to a report issued Monday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a Paris-based economic policy forum, said that the war in Ukraine had slowed global economic growth more than predicted as early as June in a report released Monday. As inflation and energy shortages drive up prices of food and fuel, Germany and Russia will likely experience a full-on recession as Europe’s natural gas reserve capacity creates a tentative buffer for the remaining countries.

“Inflationary pressures that were already present as the global economy emerged from the pandemic have been severely aggravated by the war,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said during a presentation.

Combined energy and business productivity shocks could tamp European economic growth by 1.25 percentage points in 2023 and drive up inflation by 1.5 percentage points, the report stated. This could “push many countries into a full-year recession in 2023” and suppress growth into 2024.

The OECD predicted global growth would slow to 2.2% in 2023, down from 3% in 2022 and an earlier forecast of 2.8% for next year. In total, the world may see a loss of $2.8 trillion in growth potential, equivalent to the size of France’s entire economy, Reuters reported.

The OECD’s figures show the greatest contraction for Russia’s economy, revising growth projections down 5.5% for 2022 and 4.5% for 2023.
Germany’s four major economic institutes also reversed course, predicting a recession in 2023 on Monday, Reuters reported.



Russia’s clamp down on natural gas exports to some European countries has hit the continent particularly hard.

“A key risk around the projections is that the ongoing and planned reductions in energy supplies from Russia to the EU prove much more disruptive than assumed in the baseline projections,” the report stated.

More countries could dip into recession if efforts to diversify natural gas sourcing fall short of what is needed to fuel businesses and heat homes through the winter, according to the report. A cold winter could further strain Europe’s natural gas storage facilities, which have reached between 80% and 90% capacity as of Monday.

“Even at this level, there may not be sufficient storage to ensure that demand in a typical winter can be met,” the report stated.

However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said earlier in September the Russian gas-dependent country is “in a position in which we can go bravely and courageously into this winter,” the Associated Press reported.

High demand will continue to pressure energy prices upward, according to the OECD. Many countries have taken steps to encourage energy conservation, but that could have a downward effect on productivity.

“Monetary policy will need to continue to tighten in most major economies to tame inflation durably,” Cormann said, advocating for more targeted, top-down fiscal stimulus. He also said that banks would need to continue hiking interest rates.

 

[marsh]

Maine Gov. Janet Mills Won’t Remove Taxpayer-Funded Video Calling ‘MAGA’ A Form Of ‘Covert Racism And White Supremacy’

Maine’s Democratic Gov. refused to remove a taxpayer-funded video that dubbed “MAGA” a form of “covert racism” from the state’s Education Department resources.

dailycaller.com

Maine Gov. Janet Mills Won’t Remove Taxpayer-Funded Video Calling ‘MAGA’ A Form Of ‘Covert Racism And White Supremacy’

CHRISSY CLARK
EDUCATION REPORTER
September 26, 2022

Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills refused to remove a taxpayer-funded video that dubbed the campaign phrase “MAGA” a form of “covert racism” from the state’s Education Department resources, according to a report.

The Maine Department of Education offers a program titled, “Maine Online Opportunities for Sustained Education” (MOOSE) that included a module on “inclusivity” for Maine educators. The module stated that “MAGA,” the campaign phrase popularized by former President Donald Trump, is an example of “covert racism and white supremacy.”

Other examples of alleged “covert” racist ideas included, “education funding from property taxes,” “Columbus day,” “anti-immigration policies,” “not challenging racist jokes,” “All Lives Matter,” “racist Halloween costumes,” “assuming good intentions are enough,” and more.

The module contrasted “covert racism” with “overt racism and white supremacy” such as lynching, wearing blackface, and using racial slurs.



The presentation was created by the Holocaust and Human Rights Center of Maine, according to the presentation. A spokesperson for the Maine Department of Education told a local news outlet that the state had no part in creating the video.

“The Department of Education will continue to empower teachers, parents and elected school boards to make their own decisions and public education in Maine, despite attacks like these,” spokesman Marcus Mrowka told local news.

Mills made no plans to remove the lesson from the Maine Education Department’s website. Her office did not respond to the Daily Caller’s request for comment.

Mills previously removed a sex education lesson that taught kindergartners about transgenderism, according to a report from the Washington Free Beacon. Both the transgenderism lesson for teens and the “covert racism” lesson for educators received funding through President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion American Rescue Plan, according to Breitbart.

The Maine Department of Education did not respond to the Daily Caller’s request for comment.

 

[marsh]

Biden’s EPA Launches ‘Environmental Justice’ Office To Throw Billions At Minority Groups

The Environmental Protection Agency announced on Saturday that it is launching the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights.

dailycaller.com

Biden’s EPA Launches ‘Environmental Justice’ Office To Throw Billions At Minority Groups

JACK MCEVOY
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT REPORTER
September 26, 2022

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced Saturday it is launching a new environmental justice office to distribute taxpayer dollars to minority communities that the agency claims are disproportionately affected by climate change and pollution.

The Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights, which will employ a Senate-confirmed director and more than 200 staffers, will be in charge of allocating the $3 billion in environmental justice grants mandated by the recent passage of the Democrats’ $370 billion climate spending bill, according to an EPA press release. The new office will work with other EPA offices to make sure the concerns of minority and low-income communities are being incorporated into the agency’s programs and policies as well as ensuring that recipients of EPA comply with civil rights laws.

“With the launch of a new national program office, we are embedding environmental justice and civil rights into the DNA of EPA and ensuring that people who’ve struggled to have their concerns addressed see action to solve the problems they’ve been facing for generations,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement.

The office will combine the three smaller, preexisting offices of environmental justice, civil rights and conflict prevention into one larger national office. The move will further attempt to implement President Joe Biden’s aggressive climate agenda in minority and low-income areas by utilizing the “highest levels of the government” to implement environmental policies, according to the press release.

The Democrats’ climate bill, dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act,” was signed into law by Biden in August and will spend $60 billion on implementing environmental justice, including the $3 billion investment in the climate and environmental justice block grant program that the new office will oversee. The Democrats claimed the provision was the largest amount of money that the federal government has ever allocated on climate-focused spending in minority communities and low-income areas, according to Politico.

“From day one, President Biden and EPA have been committed to delivering progress on environmental justice and civil rights and ensuring that underserved and overburdened communities are at the forefront of our work,” Regan stated.

Biden signed an executive order during his first week in office that launched a series of federal programs aimed at addressing “current and historic environmental injustice.”

The EPA did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

 

[marsh]

Dems Stuffed Billions In Reparations For Black Farmers In ‘Inflation Reduction Act’

The Democrats' climate spending and tax bill gave the Department of Agriculture $2.2 billion in loans to pay farmers who have been discriminated against.

dailycaller.com

Dems Stuffed Billions In Reparations For Black Farmers In ‘Inflation Reduction Act"​

JACK MCEVOYENERGY & ENVIRONMENT REPORTER
September 26, 20224:21 PM ET

The Democrats’ massive climate spending and tax bill gave the Department of Agriculture (USDA) $2.2 billion in loans to pay farmers, many of whom are black, who have previously been denied USDA loans due to discrimination.

The provision, which was backed by Democratic Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Raphael Warnock of Georgia, is intended to provide financial assistance to farmers, ranchers or forest landowners that the department determines to have experienced discrimination in USDA farm lending programs before January 1. 2021, according to the bill’s text. Although the funding could go to any farmer that the government has discriminated against, such as white women or members of the LGBTQ community, the money is primarily intended to rectify the historic denial of loans to black farmers, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Another of the bill’s provisions will allocate $3.1 to help farmers of any race who are facing financial hardship and also have a direct or guaranteed loan with the USDA. Democrats quietly abandoned their original plan in August to give $4 billion to black farmers as part of the March 2021 Covid relief bill after white farmers filed a lawsuit against the funding, saying it was unconstitutional to exclude white farmers based on race, according to Bloomberg Law.

Booker, Warnock and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a letter on Sept. 15 to Agriculture Secretary Thomas Vilsack urging the USDA to quickly disperse the billions in farm relief funding. Vilsack stated in August that the department was still determining the best way to distribute the funds that Congress mandated to be handled by an independent organization, according to the WSJ.

The bill which Democrats call the ‘Inflation Reduction Act,’ will spend over $740 billion to fund “environmental justice” programs, invest in green energy as well as expand government agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and Internal Revenue Service. The law’s ability to lower the country’s current high levels of inflation is “statistically indistinguishable from zero,” according to the Wharton Budget Model.

The USDA did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

 

[marsh]

Democrats’ Climate Bill Could Pay Farmers To Not Grow Food

The Democrats' climate bill could set aside more than $2o billion to incentivize farmers to not grow crops in the interests of environmental conservation.

dailycaller.com

Democrats’ Climate Bill Could Pay Farmers To Not Grow Food​

JACK MCEVOYENERGY & ENVIRONMENT REPORTER
August 04, 20222:40 PM ET

The Senate Democrats’ climate bill could set aside more than $2o billion to incentivize farmers to not grow crops in the interests of environmental conservation and preventing climate change, according to the bill’s text.

Farmers will be paid to implement agricultural conservation practices approved by the Biden administration to protect soil health and reduce carbon emissions, according to page 529 of the “Inflation Reduction Act.” Such measures could include plowing their soil less, implementing climate-friendly crop rotation techniques and planting cover crops that do not yield any food, according to The Associated Press.

“It’s a provision that will encourage farmers to pursue practices that will be meaningless for the environment, but like the rest of the bill, costly for taxpayers,” Steve Goreham, executive director for the Climate Science Coalition of America, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “In fact, there is no evidence that the passage of the bill will have the slightest effect on global temperatures.”

The plan will make over $20 billion available until Sept. 30, 2031, to diminish the climate impacts of farming through the expansion of current U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs that will push farmers to adopt more climate-conscious practices. Provisions in the bill also move to slash methane emissions from cows, fund climate research and cut greenhouse emissions produced by farms.

For example, the bill will fund the USDA to regulate the diets of cows to decrease the methane emissions they produce. The proposed regulations on the farming industry come amid growing concerns about a global food crisis, according to a World Bank press release in May.

Current U.S. farming methods make the nation by far the largest exporter of agricultural products in the world; such exports generated roughly $177 billion in 2021, according to USDA data.

The funding to target greenhouse gas emissions in the bill is strongly supported by environmental activist groups like the Environmental Defense Fund, the AP reported.

The roughly $370 billion climate and tax provisions in the Democratic deal aim to get the nation closer to cutting its carbon emissions in half by 2030. Provisions in the bill also include tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles as well as heavy investment in the green energy industry.

President Joe Biden praised the Democrats’ agreement on the bill as it will further his ambitious climate plan, a key policy agenda of his administration.

The USDA directed the DCNF to a statement from Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack who echoed Biden’s sentiments, saying that the bill would reduce inflation and address climate change on July 28.

 

[marsh]

Everyone is turning on the left. They are the reason we are in this mess. "YOU ARE A LIAR" .25 min

EVERYONE IS TURNING ON THE LEFT. THEY ARE THE REASON WE ARE IN THIS MESS. "YOU ARE A LIAR"​

(immigrants turning on the Nan)

• WATCH

Everyone is turning on the left. They are the reason we are in this mess.
They are all liars!

 

[marsh]

(Germany)
"The Germans are fully awake now. Monday evening in over 1000 places anti-government protests were held. Protest over energy costs, to stop the sanctions against Russia, to END all Covid mandates and FOR FREEDOM"

Leipzig, Germany, Monday evening in over 1000 places anti-government protests were held. 2;18 min

LEIPZIG, GERMANY, MONDAY EVENING IN OVER 1000 PLACES ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS WERE HELD.​

• WATCH

^^^^^^
Lubmin, Germany, 25.09.2022 Freedom Fighters .34 min

LUBMIN, GERMANY, 25.09.2022 FREEDOM FIGHTERS​

• WATCH

^^^^
Ingolstadt, Germany, 25.09.2022 Freedom Fighters! .27 min

INGOLSTADT, GERMANY, 25.09.2022 FREEDOM FIGHTERS!​

• WATCH

^^^^^

 

[marsh]

Construction of illegal alien tent shelter begins in NYC 1:56 min

CONSTRUCTION OF ILLEGAL ALIEN TENT SHELTER BEGINS IN NYC​

• WATCH

"Construction started Monday in a parking lot in the Bronx where New York City officials are planning planning to erect hangar-sized tents as temporary shelter for thousands of international migrants. "
Associated Press 096/26/2022

 

[von Koehler]

Europe suffers horrifying 755% increase in Excess Deaths among Children since EMA approved COVID Vaccine for Kids

At the end of August, we exclusively revealed that official mortality figures for Europe showed a shocking 691% increase in excess deaths among children up to week 33 of 2022 since the European Med…

expose-news.com

Europe suffers horrifying 755% increase in Excess Deaths among Children since EMA approved COVID Vaccine for Kids​

BY THE EXPOSÉ ON SEPTEMBER 25, 2022 •

At the end of August, we exclusively revealed that official mortality figures for Europe showed a shocking 691% increase in excess deaths among children up to week 33 of 2022 since the European Medicines Agency extended the emergency use authorisation of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for use in children aged 12 to 15 in May 2021.

Our investigation has since forced the European Union’s official statistics department to begin a Europe-wide investigation into why there has been a significant increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14.

However, upon announcing the investigation, EuroMOMO, the organisation that published the figures, altered the baseline by which excess deaths are measured against. This questionable act resulted in the number of excess deaths being artificially reduced.

So we have revisited the data, and despite EuroMOMO’s best efforts to reduce the severity of the situation we uncovered, we can exclusivly reveal that the altered figures show there has been a shocking 755% increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2022 so far, and a 630% increase overall since the EMA first approved the Covid-19 vaccine for children.

---

---

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity. The organisation states that its aim is to “detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats”.

Official national mortality statistics are provided weekly from the 29 European countries or subnational regions in the EuroMOMO collaborative network, supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), and hosted by Statens Serum Institut, Denmark.

The following chart shows the weekly excess deaths throughout 2020 and 2021 among children aged 0 to 14 across Europe. The graph has been taken from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



As you can see from the above, deaths among children throughout 2020 were generally below the expected number of deaths. This trend continued throughout 2021 up to week 22, at which point excess deaths were recorded week on week until the end of the year.

What’s interesting about the fact excess deaths began to be recorded among children in week 22 of 2021 is that it coincides with the week the European Medicines Agency (EMA) granted “an extension of indication for the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (Pfizer) to include use in children aged 12 to 15″.

Source

The following chart shows the cumulative totals of weekly excess deaths between 2017 and 2022 among children aged 0 to 14 across Europe between week 0 and week 21. The data has been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



The 2018 to 2020 average number of excess deaths among children across Europe between week 1 and week 21 equates to 199. But during the first 21 weeks of 2021, there were actually 408 fewer deaths among children than expected and 607 fewer deaths than the 2018 to 2020 average.

The following chart shows the total number of excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2021 following EMA approval of the Covid-19 vaccine for 12 to 15-year-olds in week 22, compared to the same time frame in other years. The numbers have been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



The 2017 to 2020 average number of excess deaths among children across Europe between week 22 and week 52 equates to 104.25. But during the same period in 2021, following EMA approval of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for children, there were 682 more deaths among children than expected and 578 more deaths than the 2017 to 2020 average.

This means excess deaths among children throughout 2021 after EMA approval of the Covid-19 injection for children aged 12 to 15, increased by 554% compared to the week 22 to week 52, 2017 to 2020 average.

The following chart shows the total number of excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 in 2022 so far (Week 37) compared to the same time frame in other years. The numbers have been extracted from the EuroMOMO website and can be accessed here.



In 2022, children aged 5 and over across Europe have been offered the Covid-19 injection, and children aged 12 and over have been offered up to three doses of the Covid-19 injection.

The 2018 to 2021 average number of excess deaths among children between week 1 and week 33 equates to 63.4. But during the first 33 weeks of 2022, there were 542 more deaths among children than expected and 479 more deaths than the 2018 to 2021 average.

This means excess deaths among children throughout 2022 so far after EMA approval of the Covid-19 injection for children aged 5 and above, have increased by 755% compared to the 2018 to 2021 average.

Once we combine the figures for week 22 in 2021 onwards up to week 33 of 2022 (1,224excess deaths), and compare them against the combined 2017 to 2020 & 2018 to 2021 average (167.65 excess deaths), we find that excess deaths among children across Europe have increased by 630% since the European Medicines Agency first approved a Covid-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15 in May 2021.



Thankfully the European Union’s official statistics department has already begun a Europe-wide investigation into why there has been a significant increase in excess deaths among children aged 0 to 14 since the European Medicines Agency approved the Covid-19 injection for children because of our previous investigation.

For comparison, these are the figures we uncovered in week 33, before EuroMOMO curiously altered the baseline in week 36 upon announcing the investigation.

Source

However, we don’t hold much hope that the authorities will ever admit that these deaths are occurring because of the Covid-19 injections.

The fact these excess deaths have only occurred since the EMA first approved the Covid-19 vaccine for children will most likely just be another “coincidence” to add to the long list of “coincidences” that have occurred since early 2020.

Just doing what it was designed to do; it's a bioweapon after all.