CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

abby normal

insert appropriate adjective here
Might be time for a separate thread to keep track of new lockdowns and/or restrictions, heading into winter and 2021 :shr: Here we go again, second verse same as the first... But a whole lot worse!

Here in Ohio, DeWine is setting up for another lockdown. New business closures, new gathering orders, plus new mask orders, but this time he's created a "retail compliance unit" aka brownshirts to spy on you :dvl1:

Ohio issues new orders enforcing masks in businesses, restricting gatherings


COLUMBUS — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced Wednesday the state would issue a revised mask order and public gathering order in the next week to limit the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus.

As COVID-19 cases across Ohio continue to rise and reach record numbers each day, DeWine took a proactive approach as the country waits for an effective vaccine against the virus. The governor noted that on Monday, the pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced they had developed a vaccine candidate that was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19.

"We can’t run wild until enough of us get the vaccine," DeWine said.

"Throughout the pandemic, most people and businesses in Ohio have done things right by wearing masks and ensuring safety guidelines are strictly followed," he continued. "It’s those actions that kept the virus from spreading uncontrollably. However, it is clear there are some businesses where mask-wearing is simply lacking."

On Wednesday, DeWine announced the state would re-issue the mask order that was originally implemented on July 23. The mask order now includes three additional provisions specific to businesses:



Revised Mask Order - Nov. 11
The first violation of this order will bring about a written warning. A second violation will bring about closure of the store for up to 24 hours.

In addition to implementing a new mask order, the state is also beefing up existing orders already in place. In April, DeWine issued orders to limit gatherings of 10 or more people, applying to public and private events.

"Despite this order, we have seen rampant spread of the virus as a result of banquets, wedding receptions, and social gatherings following funerals," he said. "We have seen great tragedy associated with such events. It’s not the ceremonies causing the problem, it’s the party afterward."

A new order will be issued in the next few days placing significant new restrictions on social activities.

"Specifically, open congregate areas can no longer be open," he said. "The order will require everyone to be seated and masked unless they are actively consuming food or drinks and it will prohibit things such as dancing and games."


If the current trend of rising COVID-19 cases continues even with these new mandates, DeWine said the state would be forced to close restaurants, bars and fitness centers, and would require schools to go back to remote learning.

"I'm very well aware of the burden this will place on employees and business owners, but these are places where it's difficult or impossible to maintain mask wearing, which we know now is the chief way of spreading the virus," DeWine said.

"It is up to each and every one of us. What we do in the community impacts whether our kids can stay in school."

"We’ve got to get back to basics: Wearing a mask, maintaining at least six feet of distance from each other, washing hands frequently, not having get-togethers in your house, and getting adequate fresh air into our homes." - Gov. Mike DeWine
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, Ohio keeps breaking its own record of daily cases. At the end of September, Ohio averaged under 1,000 cases a day. Yesterday, we reached the highest number of over 6,500 cases. Today, we reported our second-highest number of cases at nearly 5,900 cases, DeWine reported.

"I know that some say some the only reason we’re seeing more cases is because we’re testing more," he said. "Yes, we are doing more testing – but the fact is, testing has not even doubled but cases have gone up almost four times."

The spike in cases has put a strain on Ohio's hospitals, DeWine said. As of today, the state is approaching 3,000 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 - an increase of nearly 1,000 people in only a week. More than 700 people are in an Intensive Care Unit.

Ohio has reported 5,623 deaths due to COVID-19. DeWine stated on Wednesday that 86 Ohioans died from COVID-19 the first week of October, and 104 died the first week of November.

"If you don’t know any of its victims yet, sadly I suspect you will," DeWine said.

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, DeWine cautioned against gathering with family members outside of your "bubble" to curb the spread of COVID-19.

"I know you’re tired. I know you want this to be over. But...when you’re going through hell, keep going," he said. "So tonight, I ask you, keep going. Recommit to your individual efforts to say safe, because what you do in your private lives affects everyone."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txtju-Cx02A
15:42 min
200 - The Logistics and Ethics of Distributing COVID-19 Vaccines
•Nov 12, 2020


Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
We’re closer to safe, effective COVID-19 vaccines, but what will the actual rollout look like? Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a bioethicist and health policy expert recently appointed to President-elect Joe Biden’s coronavirus task force, talks with Stephanie Desmon about the challenges in distributing a vaccine in the US. They discuss which groups might get access first, logistical challenges including cold chain and glass supply concerns, and the steps needed between concluding clinical trials and actually distributing a vaccine. They also talk about the formidable efforts that will be needed to advocate for getting vaccinated which could include a massive campaign with endorsements from trusted celebrities and thought leaders.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jwBxZMWrng
22:33 min
Coronavirus Update 116: Pfizer COVID 19 Vaccine Explained

•Nov 12, 2020

MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY

Professor Roger Seheult, MD discusses the Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA vaccine: How it works and what we know about the safety and efficacy at this time. No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved by the FDA, but Pfizer and BioNTech hope to receive emergency approval based on preliminary data from their ongoing vaccine trial. This two-dose vaccine regimen has limitations including the need for -70 C refrigeration and many questions remain: Will the vaccine prevent transmission and asymptomatic spread? How long will immunity last? Will “90% effective” hold up to peer-review and additional data when it is gathered? (This video was recorded on November 12, 2020). Dr. Seheult is the co-founder and lead instructor at https://www.medcram.com

LINKS / REFERENCES: Johns Hopkins Tracker | https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Worldometer | https://www.worldometers.info/coronav... COVID-19 vaccine tracker (RAPS) | https://www.raps.org/news-and-article... Safety and Immunogenicity of Two RNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates (NEJM) | https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056... A prefusion SARS-CoV-2 spike RNA vaccine is highly immunogenic and prevents lung infection in non-human primates (bioRxiv) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.11... Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study (BioNTech) | https://investors.biontech.de/news-re... Why mRNA represents a disruptive new drug class {BioNTech) | https://biontech.de/how-we-translate/...
 

155 arty

Veteran Member


AMERICAN NEWS
Governor Whitmer pushes to criminalize refusing to wear a mask in Michigan
Michigan's governor Gretchen Whitmer is asking the State Legislature to codify the current order requiring people to wear face masks and make it law.'s governor Gretchen Whitmer is asking the State Legislature to codify the current order requiring people to wear face masks and make it law.

Michigan's governor Gretchen Whitmer is asking the State Legislature to codify the current order requiring people to wear face masks and make it law.

James AnthonyThe Post Millennial
November 5, 2020 1:08 PM1 Mins Reading

Michigan's governor Gretchen Whitmer is asking the State Legislature to codify the current order requiring people to wear face masks and make it law.

"We have got to take action now. This week I sent a letter to the Republican leaders in the legislature urging them to pass legislation that requires Michiganders to wear masks in indoor places and crowded outdoor areas," Whitmer said. "...we do think that it would be helpful to our health, our state and our economy if it was codified in a bipartisan way with our legislature."

According to M Live, the current order in place comes from an epidemic order emitted by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS), but Whitmer possibly feels that it needs more legal weight.

Whitmer feels that many Republicans in the State Legislature (which currently has a Republican majority) are "anti-maskers" and are working against her on this issue.

State Senate majority leader Mike Shirkey has publicly spoken on the issue, saying that people should wear masks, but believes it should be voluntary, and not a legal issue. "I do NOT support a statewide mask mandate. I do encourage everyone to honor whatever policies individual businesses, organizations and schools establish," said Shirkey on Twitter in October.



Whitmer also appears to be at odds with the Michigan Supreme Court, which ended a state of emergency she had previously declared, expanding her powers as Governor of Michigan. MDHHS then put their own mask mandate in place.

Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, Michigan's Chief Medical Officer, commented on the pandemic at a press conference on Thursday:

"Our rates are rising exponentially and we have general community spread. This means that the cases we're seeing are not just associated with outbreaks. Many people, in fact, as many as 50% of positive cases that we investigate have no idea how they got the virus."


I live in ohio but ,**** you ! And **** Mike de'swine the rino piece of shit
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

US Tops 150k Daily COVID-19 Cases For First Time: Live Updates

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 18:44
Summary:
  • US cases hit new daily record
  • NJ positivity rate surges
  • Chicago issues stay at home order
  • Georgia Secretary of State to quarantine after announcing hand recount
  • French ICU occupancy up to 96.6%
  • Detroit returns to remote learning
  • CDC releases guidance reminding users that masks also help protect wearers
  • Austria sees new daily record in cases
  • UK outbreak may finally be starting to slow
  • Global cases see new record
  • Global deaths top 12k for first time
  • Cases rising in all 50 states for first time
  • New cases finally starting to weaken in Europe
  • Moderna says vaccine data incoming
  • Turkey bans smoking on crowded streets
  • Japan suffers biggest daily jump in cases yet
  • Hungary strikes deal for Russian vaccine
* * *
Update (1830ET): For the first time, the US has reported more than 150k coronavirus cases in a single day, marking the latest in a series of disturbing national records.


As the chart above shows, the number of deaths has continued to climb, producing more alarming and leading to governors around the country tightening restrictions this week.

* * *
Update (1500ET): Just like the rest of the country, New Jersey is seeing the virus come roaring back as officials confirmed Thursday that the Garden State has seen more than 10,000 new cases since Monday, and that the positivity rate in the state has soared to 12% (neighboring PA, by comparison, is at 18.3%. NY, by contrast, has a positivity rate that's still much, much lower, by comparison.
Still, officials in New York are worried that worsening numbers in NJ could trigger a bigger outbreak across the Hudson.
NEW: We’re reporting 3,517 new positive #COVID19 test results, bringing our cumulative total to 266,986.

Since Monday, we’ve had 10,472 new cases. pic.twitter.com/1brXfmClHy
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 12, 2020
Sadly, we must report 18 additional #COVID19 deaths, bringing our statewide total to 14,694.

The number of probable deaths is 1,801. pic.twitter.com/a7DTdUFZM2
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 12, 2020
The statewide positivity rate for all tests recorded on November 8th was 12.02%.

The statewide rate of transmission is currently 1.3 pic.twitter.com/rrB4UJ7mt5
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 12, 2020
☑️1,827 patients in our hospitals – a number we haven’t seen since June 4th
☑️360 patients in our ICUs – the highest number since June 13th
☑️117 ventilators in use – a number we haven’t seen since July 7th pic.twitter.com/WBdcKsf8Vf
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 12, 2020
"We have to get back to the mindset that saw us crush the curve throughout the spring," Murphy said in another tweet amid signs that exhaustion with social distancing in lockdowns was leading to lax compliance.

* * *
* * *
Update (1410ET): As new cases and hospitalizations in Illinois hit new records, the city of Chicago, the country's third-largest, has just issued an "advisory" asking residents to call off Thanksgiving, and engage in only "essential" trips, like to school, work or the store, for the next 30 days.
  • CHICAGO ADVISORY INCLUDES LEAVING FOR WORK, SCHOOL
  • CHICAGO RECOMMENDS CALLING OFF THANKSGIVING GATHERINGS
  • CHICAGO ADVISORY TO STAY IN PLACE FOR 30 DAYS UNLESS CHANGED
The advisory takes effect Monday, with Mayor Lori Lightfoot warning that deaths in the city could surpass 1,000 by the end of the year if the virus continues on its trajectory

In other news, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has said he will quarantine after his wife tested positive for COVID-19, raising the question: Who will count the votes?

* * *
Update (1310ET): After the government affirmed that France's lockdown-lite measures would stay in place for at least another two weeks, official data showed that French ICU occupancy, one of the most closely watched indicators in Europe, has risen again to 96.6%, a new post-springtime high.
"We count in #France in recent days a hospitalization every 30 seconds and an admission to intensive care every 3 minutes," PM Jean Castex warned.
In total, France has some 4,803 COVID-19 patients in its ICUs (with 40% of them under 65). Presently, 25% of all deaths in France right now are due to COVID-19
Over the past 2 weeks, 72,279 fines have been handed out for COVID-19 related infractions, according to Castex, the government's pointman.

Over in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel just raised the possibility of extending that country's COVID-19 restrictions through the Christmas holiday.

Though the pace of the outbreak has slowed, Merkel said the levels of spread are still too high, with Germany looking to reduce cases to 50 per 100,000, from 138 as of Thursday.

Also, in case you forgot, the CDC has released new guidance reminding Americans that masks offer protection benefits to wearers (as opposed to, well, everybody else).

* * *
Update (0945ET): As the US heads closer to the Biden lockdown, the Detroit Free Press is reporting that Detroit schools are about to halt face-to-face learning because of rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

Per the report, Detroit Public Schools are halting in-person learning through Jan. 11, as COVID-19, meaning the city's 50k students likely won't return to classrooms until next semester.
"All classes will be held online starting Monday, November 16 due to the rapid increase in the COVID-19 infection rate in Detroit," the district said in an announcement. "Face-to-face learning and learning centers will remain open this Thursday and Friday to provide families time to rearrange educational support for students."
Other nearby Michigan districts that have reverted to online learning in recent days include: Grosse Pointe, Holly, Huron Valley, Pontiac, Rochester and Utica.

Meanwhile, Austria has become the latest EU member to report a new daily record, even after tightening restrictions on nonessential businesses last week. The country reported 9,262 new cases, and 44 deaths.

In a rare bit of good news, a recent UK symptoms study has put the COVID-19 rate of spread below 1, indicating that the outbreak is finally starting to slow.

* * *
Around the world, the number of new COVID-19 deaths recorded over the 24 hours to Wednesday topped 12k for the first time, a new daily record, as the global coronavirus pandemic places unprecedented pressure on health-care systems from Paris to the Mountain West.

Cases are also rising in all 50 states for the first time since the pandemic began.



To be sure, over the past week, the number of new cases has finally started to plateau, or decline, in the UK, Germany and France. Meanwhile, hard-hit neighbors like Belgium, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have seen significant declines in infection rates as well, as the chart below shows.

1605232043623.png

But the number of hospitalized patients is still growing: In the US, new national records north of 60k have been reached, while France, Italy and the UK have reached their highest levels since the springtime. Governors from New York to California have imposed new restrictions on businesses, social gatherings and movement this week.

1605232119288.png

By now, all of these countries have enacted at least some restrictions, including closing bars and restaurants, or at least limiting their indoor service capacity, closing non-essential shops, or barring alcohol sales after 2200, like Sweden just did.

In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute revealed that officials had counted another 21,866 new cases over the past 24 hours, bringing the country's total number to 727,553. Germany has also recorded 11,982 deaths. Since the country imposed its "lockdown lite" earlier this month, the curve has flattening ever-so-slightly, a sign that "we are not completely at the mercy of this virus," Germany's Lothar Wieler, the head of the RKI, said.

The number of confirmed cases worldwide has now topped 52 million, after Johns Hopkins reported the first new daily record for new confirmed cases worldwide yesterday, with 666,955 new cases yesterday.



With vaccine news dominating the headlines this week, Hungary has reportedly agreed to buy its first doses of the Russian-made "Sputnik 5" COVID-19 vaccine after authorities in the country revealed that it was 92% effective at preventing infection, according to initial data from the final stage trial.

Even more importantly: In the US, Moderna - a company working on a vaccine with the same mRNA technology as the Pfizer vaccine - said that it finally has enough data for an "interim analysis" of the late-stage experimental trial. The company confirmed that the threshold of 53 patients sickened has been reached, meaning the data analysis on the results will soon be ready.The news predictably sent Moderna shares rocketed 5.3% in premarket trade.



BMO Capital Markets analyst George Farmer (outperform) said the announcement indicates first interim results could be “coming any day”, and that it has a greater than 95% chance of coming in positive. Jefferies analysts led by Michael J. Yee said they expect the results will be positive, with an efficacy rate around the 90% level seen in the Pfizer vaccine, and that we "could hear back soon".

Finally, Turkey has banned smoking in some public places to try and stamp out a surge in infections. The country's interior minister decreed late Wednesday that smoking would be banned on busy streets, at bus stops and in public squares.

The ban was enacted after the country determined that Turks were "incorrectly using their masks by lowering them below their chins to smoke cigarettes." Roughly one-third of Turks smoke, according to WHO data.

Here's some more news from Thursday morning and overnight:
Japan hit a new daily record of coronavirus infections Thursday as authorities began hinting they may take stronger measures to arrest the increase. At least 1,634 cases were recorded nationwide, according to a tally by national broadcaster NHK, topping the previous high set during a surge in August. While numbers are low in absolute terms compared to many other countries, a spike in northern Japan is leading to concerns cases could spread as winter sets in (Source: Bloomberg).

Some regions in China might see clusters of infections during the winter season, Li Bin, the deputy director of National Health Commission, said at a briefing.

China will enhance testing capacity, improve monitoring and increase testing on imported frozen food (Source: Bloomberg).

India's medical research body and the Serum Institute completed the enrollment for phase 3 trial of the Oxford University AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, while the Serum Institute has produced 40mln doses of the vaccine and the medical research body stated that it was the most advanced vaccine in human testing in India. Furthermore, it was also reported that the Serum Institute received bulk COVID-19 vaccine from Novavax which it will soon fill and finish them in vials, while it is to test the Novavax vaccine in a phase 3 trial in India (Source: Newswires).

Belgium reported fewer Covid-19 patients in intensive care for a second straight day, providing further evidence the peak in hospitalizations may have passed.

There are now 1,463 patients in ICU, down 7 from the day before and 11 fewer than the record 1,474 of Nov. 9. Belgium has a total capacity of about 2,000 ICU beds. Hospital admissions fell to 542 from 609 the prior day, with the total number of hospitals beds taken dropping to less than 7,000 again (Source: Bloomberg).

New Zealand health officials are asking people who work in downtown Auckland to stay home Friday while they trace the movements of a person who may have contracted coronavirus from within the community. New Zealand earlier this year succeeded in eliminating community transmission of the coronavirus by imposing a strict nationwide lockdown (Source: Bloomberg).
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Supermarkets Limit Toilet Paper Purchases As COVID Cases Hit New Highs

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 18:00

Some experts warn about the genuine possibility that US daily caseloads of coronavirus could breach 200,000 in the coming weeks or by the end of the year as daily new cases top more than 100,000 for the sixth consecutive day. Total cases exceeded ten million on Sunday since the pandemic began, far more than any other country.

Weeks ago, on Oct. 28, we informed readers: "panic hoarding begins" - as anxieties of Americans soared in tandem with new cases as threats of a COVID winter along with new restrictions and possible lockdowns drove people to supermarkets.

Coronavirus has turned tens of millions of Americans into preppers, as many fringe preppers were relentlessly mocked by mainstream media in February and March ahead lockdowns. A recent survey shows over half of all Americans are currently planning "to stockpile food and other essentials"…

Slightly more than half of Americans in a recent poll from Sports and Leisure Research Group say they already have or plan to stockpile food and other essentials. The chief reason is fears of a resurgent pandemic, which could cause disruptions such as new restrictions on businesses.

It's not just food people are prepping once again. New reports across the country suggest toilet paper is becoming a hot commodity. Stores are re-implementing limits on toilet paper as demand surges.

Kroger, with more than 2,000 supermarkets nationwide, has just put limits on the essential items "to ensure all customers have access to what they need."
"We've proactively and temporarily set purchase limits to two per customer on certain products, including bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap," a Kroger spokesperson said in a statement which was quoted by Fox 11 LA.
"Our buyers and suppliers are working hard to provide essential, high demand merchandise as well as everyday favorites," the company wrote.
Weeks ago, we noted how major food companies and suppliers of essential goods beefed up their supply chain this summer to increase production to ensure disruptions would not be seen during a panic buying episode. Companies such as General Mills, Campbell Soup, Conagra Brands, and Stonyfield Farm expanded internal and external product lines ahead of the fall.

Texas grocery chain H-E-B is another grocery store that limits bath tissue, paper towels, and even brisket.
"To help protect the supply chain in Texas, we've implemented temporary purchase limits on certain items. Limiting product purchases is a proven way to ensure the best service and product availability for all customers. Our stores are in strong supply and we continue to restock products daily," the store said on its website.
According to the York Daily, grocery chain Giant Co. once again re-instated purchase limits on 4-roll packs of toilet paper and paper towels for the southern Pennsylvania region. The limits were placed "as the supply chain for these products remains challenged," the company said in a statement.


Mike Brackett, founder & CEO of Centricity Insights, a company focused on cloud-based customer analytic platforms, told Good Morning America that "we're absolutely starting to see shortages again" as another round of panic buying begins.
"The spice category is absolutely gone through the roof," Brackett said. "So we believe that during this pandemic, there's been a totally different buying pattern and really generation that started to cook a lot more than they used to due to necessity."
With some supermarket chains placing limits on toilet papers, internet searches for "where can I buy toilet paper online" hits levels not seen since early May.



Internet searches for "toilet paper shortage" are rising as well.



People are also searching "preppers supplies."



Searches for "9mm ammo" could breakout.


This round of prepping is much different than before, mainly because Americans also stockpiling weapons and combat gear like there's no tomorrow - as threats of virus pandemic, civil war, and lockdowns continue to plague the country's outlook into 2021.
 

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB

It Begins: Cuomo Issues Lockdown Orders on Private Homes Just Before Thanksgiving

466
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo steps from his car as he arrives at NewYork Stock Exchange to ring the opening bell as the trading floor partially reopens, Tuesday, May 26, 2020. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
AP Photo/Mark Lennihan
JOHN CARNEY11 Nov 2020976

Tell the guests that Thanksgiving dinner is canceled.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced orders Wednesday slapping a ten-person cap on gatherings in private residences, including apartments and houses. That means that a lot of family plans for even small Thanksgiving dinners will have to be canceled or risk moving ahead in violation of state law.

Restaurants and bars are also being ordered to close at 10 p.m. Health authorities are convinced that late-night dining and drinking is riskier, perhaps because people can stay longer when drinking and dining places are open later.

Mysteriously, gyms must also close at 10 p.m.

The rules take effect at 10 p.m. Friday.

These rules just do not make sense to me.

Why is 10:00 the magic hour? Why not 10:05 or 11:20?

Wouldn’t there be fewer restaurant patrons at 10:00 than at 7:00? Meaning more distancing and less potential spread of the virus?

And gyms - likely some of the biggest users of disinfectants. Do you have to wear a mask during workouts? If not, and you’re breathing hard, are you potentially spreading fewer COVID germs at 8:00 than you would at 10:00?

Some of these politicians must think they have to keep making rules - even stupid rules that defy logic - just to earn their pay.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Another 90,000 Airline Jobs Set To Disappear By Year-End As National Lockdown Looms

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 15:11

Despite the bullish news surrounding Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine earlier this week, lifting airline stocks to the stratosphere, on hopes of a recovery in the severely beaten down travel and tourism sector, an industry group warned Thursday about the dire situation still facing many airlines.

U.S. Global Jets ETF Jumped On Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine News


Airline For America's CEO Nick Calio, speaking at a conference Thursday morning, said air travel demand is "softening" late in the year. He said some of the reasons for the slump could be due to the resurgence of the virus pandemic.
*US AIRLINE DEMAND IS SOFTENING, AIRLINE LOBBY GROUP CEO SAYS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2020
The daily number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints in the U.S. from March 2019 to November 2020 remains halved from early March levels. As the second wave of the virus pandemic ravages many parts of the U.S. - what appears to be happening in the chart below are lower volumes of daily passengers screened at TSA checkpoints that peaked on Oct. 18.



Calio said airlines' Thanksgiving-week capacity could be down as much as 39% from a year ago, compared with a 47% drop in the first half of November. It was also noted that corporate air travel in the US remains 86% below 2019 levels.

He said airlines could ax upwards of 90,000 workers this year as many carriers must reduce costs to survive the downturn. A muted recovery so far and waning revenues have left airlines in a precarious position - where they're quickly running out of cash. At the moment, airlines are burning through $180 million per day, with only enough cash through 1Q21.
*US AIRLINES EXPECT DAILY CASH BURN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1Q 2021

*US AIRLINES: SITUATION STILL DIRE, DAILY CASH BURN AT $180 ML
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2020
In October, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that global airlines are on track to lose nearly $130 billion this year - significantly more than June's estimates of $84 billion.

IATA has already said the virus-induced downturn has resulted in 30 or 40 airlines having failed or restructured in bankruptcy.

IATA analysis shows airlines have about three-quarters of cash on hand at the current burn rate. With airline passenger volumes still down 65% in October from last year, airline ticket prices have crashed, increasing worries that airlines' revenue streams won't be enough to service existing debts.



To survive, some airlines, such as Emirates, the largest commercial airline in the UAE, have converted some of its passenger jets into "mini-freighters" to haul medical supplies worldwide.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 13:00
Authored by Patrick Hill via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The $100B+ Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst
“Being self-employed, I don’t like to add extra bills or burdens, and with a moratorium, there’s no guarantee that later I won’t be further into debt.”
- Lucy, freelance photographer, Colorado – July 2020
Lucy’s concern about accumulating debt echoes across America. Millions of renters and homeowners are anxious about paying both their monthly housing bill and a ballooning debt balance.

Based on present missed payment rates, consumers will accumulate at least $100B in housing debt by January 2021. The following model describes a set of linked health, social and economic events. These events are likely to unfold in next 6 months. An uncontrolled wave of virus infections drives the cascading economic impact:
Virus growth uncontrolled > economic activity contracts > unemployment rises
> personal income falls > consumers miss rent and mortgage payments
> rent and mortgage payment moratoriums fail > consumers use credit cards to make payments
> small business apartment landlords & homeowners default on mortgages (debt bubble bursts)
> consumer spending dives
Our analysis starts by examining the virus 3rd wave and a likely increase in lockdowns.

Virus Growth Uncontrolled
On November 2st the U.S. had a 44% increase in daily COVID-19 to 93,581. The chart below indicates the second wave of infections did not decline to the first wave low. Thus, experts forecast a third winter wave peak of cases will be higher than the second spring wave peak.



Source: New York Times – 11/3/20
Hospitalizations are rising in 42 states. Nineteen states report their highest hospitalization rate since the pandemic began in March. Uncontrolled virus infections will result in more partial or full lockdowns of intense social activity businesses including, hotels, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports stadiums, indoor arenas, offices, transit, airlines, hair salons, and personal services. An indication of what the U.S. may face soon is unfolding now in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. These EU countries are tightening pandemic restrictions at levels not seen since last June. Meantime, U.S. businesses, such as internet entertainment, technology services, eCommerce and, socially distanced grocery stores, will continue to grow.

Economic Activity Contracts
The U.S. Economy is contracting according to the latest Sales Manager Index. The next chart shows a U.S. Sales Manager survey of national economic activity jumping in the 3rd quarter and then rolling over into contraction.


Source: World Economics, The Daily Shot – 10/22/20

Components of the Sales Manager Index that are falling or flat include business confidence contracting, market growth flat, sales growth flat, profit margins weakening, and staffing levels falling. Accordingly, staffing levels are critical to watch as more layoffs mean an increase in unemployment.

Unemployment Rises
The latest report from the Department of Labor for state unemployment claims and continuing benefits shows a high level of unemployment continuing. The trend chart below shows that while regular state benefits are declining, extended emergency benefits increase for long-term jobless workers.


Sources: Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan, The Daily Shot – 10/23/20

There are 22.6M workers on continuing unemployment assistance. This level of continuing unemployment is 22 times the level of 1M a year ago. Considering 2 -3M workers who have not qualified for extended benefits or have used up their extended benefits the number of eligible workers for unemployment is closer to 25 – 26M. Twenty-six million workers unemployed is about 17.3% of the labor force. Labor experts set the unemployment rate at 20% if other workers who did not apply for benefits are added. High unemployment rates are driving personal income down.

Personal Income Falls
Consumer personal income received a boost from several sources. The CARES Act provided $1,200 stimulus checks, enacted the Payroll Protection Program targeting small businesses, a $600 weekly increase in unemployment insurance, and other emergency loans. The following Oxford Economics analysis indicates that a budget squeeze began in October.


Sources: Oxford Economics, The Daily Shot – 10/8/20

Oxford forecasts that household income will fall by 3% below pre-COVID levels beginning in November. The model shows how tight household budgets will become by January 2021.

Consumers Miss Rent and Home Mortgage Payments
The Mortgage Bankers Association reports for the 2nd quarter of 2020 rental income losses of $9.1B and mortgage payments missed of $16.3B. For the 3rd quarter, rental losses were $9.1B and $19.4B in missed mortgage payments. For the 4th quarter, we forecast a continuing $35B total for both missed rental income and mortgage payments. The total forecast for both rental income losses and missed mortgage payments by 2021 is $90B.

However, Moody’s Analytics forecasts $70B in missed rental payments alone by 12.8M renters by January 2021. Confirming the 12.8M figure, a study by Joint Center For Housing Studies at Harvard reports that 12.1M renter households have at least one at-risk-industry worker. Due to the wide variance in estimates, we forecast at least $100B in rental and mortgage debt due in January 2021.

Our forecast of $100B in looming housing debt builds on our earlier analysis in a recent Executive – Employee Catch 22 post. In that post we identified two consumer segments, workers and professionals. We noted all homeowners reported no-confidence in making next month’s payment. The analysis indicates that 16% of professional homeowners reported little or no-confidence in making mortgage payments for September. Yet, workers reported twice the no-confidence rate of professionals at 34%.

Rent and Mortgage Moratoriums Fail
The CARES Act mortgage and rent moratorium covered homes and apartment buildings secured with federal loans through July 31st. Renters obtained payment relief, while landlords continued to pay mortgage loans from their funds or relief act assistance. In mid-August, President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify households where infections may increase and mandate that household members be protected from eviction to ensure public safety. Since the federal moratorium ended and the CDC policy has been put into effect, thousands of landlords have filed suits challenging the CDC authority to protect renters from eviction.

Courts in some states are finding in favor of landlords causing evictions to rise. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that 16% of all renters will face eviction by January 2021. States like California and Washington passed blanket rent moratoriums in effect until January 1st, 2021. Rent debt is not erased in any case. The California moratorium calls for landlords to receive 25 % of the debt balance in January and 50% in February, followed by 25% increments to zero. With no stimulus assistance to renters and distressed homeowners, housing debt will likely continue to soar.

Consumers Use Credit Cards To Make Payments
Credit card usage by renters increased by 70% last spring. As renters received stimulus payments, the rate dipped to 50%. However, the credit card payment rate has risen to 65% due to the end of stimulus assistance.


Sources: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, The Wall Street Journal – 10/27/20

Consumers building credit card debt while unemployed or on reduced income assistance is unsustainable. Many consumers will be unable to make their credit card payments. Defaulting on their credit cards will hurt their credit score and make it more difficult to obtain other housing because they have an eviction record. A surge in credit card defaults will increase losses for credit card issuing banks as well. Today, missed rent payments force millions of small business landlords to fall behind in their mortgage payments.

Small Business Landlords Default on Mortgages

When renters miss payments, their landlords must continue to pay the mortgage on their building. Property corporations with access to low-interest bank loans or bond markets will have a cushion during this rent loss period. However, many small business landlords are financially stressed. Small business landlords own 22M properties, which are usually 1- 4 unit buildings Local small unit landlords finance their purchases with savings, other business profits, or family and friends.

Only 12% of small unit buildings were covered by the CARES Act rent moratorium, which ended on July 31st. So, some small business landlords have taken action to evict tenants.

Facing a cash flow crunch, anxious small business landlords applied for CARES Act business emergency loans to mitigate income loss. The Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley survey of small business landlords found 40 % of owners are not confident they can pay operating costs over the next few months. So, small business landlords may evict tenants to find a paying renter.

However, by 1st quarter of 2021, there are likely to be millions of people evicted or with poor credit so, finding another paying tenant could be problematic.

Small business landlords facing declining income and poor prospects for new paying tenants will likely default on their mortgage. There is likely to be a surge in multi-unit buildings for sale, causing a decline in multi-unit building construction.

Home Owners Default on Mortgages
Homeowners enter into forbearance plans with their lenders to avoid penalties and fees when they are likely to be delinquent on their payments. Black Knight reports there are 3M mortgages in forbearance as of October 31st. This forbearance rate is ten times the 300k mortgages in forbearance in February of 2020. Most of these mortgages are approaching their six-month renewal date from last March and April. Homeowners can apply for a six-month renewal under the CARES Act. However, after March 2021, the forbearance period ends, and homeowners must begin paying their balance owned while continuing monthly payments.

Eighty percent of present forbearance payers have applied for a six-month extension. With unemployment increasing and lockdowns forecast, there may be an increase in the number of forbearance plans. Other homeowners who don’t qualify for forbearance are delinquent in making payments. Mortgage delinquencies outside of forbearance are up by 107% YTD as of October. By the end of 1st quarter, 2021 defaults are likely to rise significantly.

Consumer Spending Dives
A perfect economic storm is gathering strength from the health, social and financial forces we have identified in this post. The corona virus continues to penetrate all facets of American life, driving uncertainty in the economy. Until we have a national virus containment program implemented, the pandemic will force economic activity down. Without a stimulus package from Congress, millions of unemployed workers, renters, and small businesses will struggle. With the bottom 80% of consumers facing severe economic headwinds, consumer spending will likely dive in the first half of next year.

For investors, this is the time to prepare for a possible severe economic storm coming this winter. Scott Minerd, Global CIO at Guggenheim, observes that we have a pause now giving us time to prepare for an economic whirlwind:
the relative calm we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye, it may seem like there is no storm at all…yet the worst is yet to come.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Less Than Half Of Americans Likely To Comply With New COVID Lockdown: Gallup

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 12:32

Earlier we featured the worrisome prospect of a second national coronavirus lockdown under a future Biden administration, considering the latest scientist to join Joe Biden's "special coronavirus transition advisory team" is calling for just that.

Getty Images
Dr. Michael Osterholm, who serves as director of the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, now one of Biden's coronavirus task force doctors told Yahoo News the following on Wednesday: "We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the lost wages for individual workers... if we did that, then we could lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks."

But we know that's unlikely to go well based on the latest polling data, as it appears the majority of Americans would not conform to such new stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions:
Americans are less likely to comply with another coronavirus lockdown than they were in the spring, with fewer than half saying in a new poll that they're very likely to stay home this time around, according to a new Gallup Poll released as record numbers of cases skyrocket nationwide.
Here's the data, according to Gallup, based on the poll taken between Oct.19 and Nov.1:
  • 49% say they're "very likely" to stay home for a month if mandated, down from 67% who said they would in the spring.
  • 18% said they were "somewhat likely" to comply.
  • One-third said they would be "unlikely" to comply with new lockdown orders.
  • This despite 61% saying they believe the situation is getting worse.
  • The number of respondents who said they'd be unlikely to comply is double the rate seen from polls in the spring.
However, it appears more Americans are intentional about social distancing measures, including wearing masks, compared to in the spring.
One of Biden's new coronavirus task force doctors floating the idea of a 4-6 week lockdown:

“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the lost wages for individual workers ... if we did that, then we could lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks."pic.twitter.com/zNmuQvPpIJ
— Zack Guzman (@zGuz) November 11, 2020
As Newsmax summarizes of the numbers: "Meanwhile, the number of people who are wearing masks has gone up sharply."

The report states "Only about half of Americans reported in April that they were wearing masks, just after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggested wearing them. Now, 88% reported they wear masks, after the number went up to 92% in July."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

NYC Mayor Prepares To Close Schools Despite 'Strikingly Few' COVID-19 Cases

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 11:28

New York City has more students in classrooms than any city in the US. And now that Detroit has just announced plans to close schools, it's widely expected that NYC will soon follow suit, perhaps even as soon as Thursday.

A couple of weeks ago, we reported that another COVID-19 'myth' had been busted: research by credible scientists over a large set of data has shown that closing schools does little to actually slow the spread of the coronavirus. Schools, the researchers claimed, are more of a reflection of the rate of transmission in the broader community. And even as cases have climbed in NYC over the past six weeks, the positive test rate in NYC schools has been just 0.17% according to the NYT. Public officials have declared the city's schools as among the safest in the nation.



Yet, as the city's positivity rate, new cases and hospitalizations climb, Mayor de Blasio has warned that the city is on the cusp of returning to the 3% positivity rate that has been set out as a line in the sand.

But is that really the smartest move for NYC's economy, and for its children, as the pandemic grinds on? As the NYT points out in a surprisingly critical piece, that includes the voices of parents and business owners questioning epidemiologists urging the closure of schools. In Europe, schools have been deemed "essential services" that must remain open; so far, none of the new lockdowns sweeping the continent have impacted schools.

But in NYC, classrooms might close before bars and restaurants.

To be sure, it's not the only US city where school closures are still part of the policy mix. Last month, Boston canceled in-person classes, which had been offered only to high-needs students, for just a few weeks. On Tuesday, Philadelphia abandoned plans to reopen schools in November. Both cities, however, still allow some indoor dining. San Francisco, which paused indoor dining this week, never reopened its schools for in-person teaching, despite low transmission rates.

There are 1.1 million students and teachers in NYC schools, but although almost all city schools are open, the vast majority of parents have decided to keep their children learning from home for now, including significant numbers of Asian-American, hispanic and black families. Roughly 300,00 students are currently engaged in in-person education. Classrooms that once sat 30 children are now limited to 9.

Several people quoted by the NYT warned that closing schools again would be heading in the wrong direction. Uché Blackstock, an emergency medicine physician in the city and the founder of Advancing Health Equity, an organization focused on bias in health care, said NY should reconsider the 3% threshold: "We need to prioritize schools, and we need to think about innovative and safe ways to keep as many schools open as possible,” she said, pointing to research showing that schools were not “key drivers” of infections.

Dr. Blackstock said her own children are back in city classrooms and that their experience has been excellent. Even Michael Mulgrew, the president of the United Federation of Teachers, which used the virus to try and squeeze more labor concessions from the city, admitted to the NYT that schools have proven surprisingly safe.

With all that in mind, maybe it is time to rethink that 3% threshold.

[COMMENT: My daughter is a CA teacher. They never did go back to physical school. She teaches in a dedicated room in her house and her 3 kids do Distance Learning. I help with the littlest one. They were scheduled to return the first of the year to a weird half day schedule where each of her kids had to start and leave at different times on different days. The transportation was impossible for one person - let alone one that worked. She would have had to quit her job and I could no longer help because of the exposure. It looks like they will stay out on DL at home now, which works for us. Poor kids need physical school, though.]
 

TammyinWI

Talk is cheap
Accomplished medical doctor lays out hazards of COVID-19 face masks
Even at the very start of the push for wearing face masks, there was a scientific push-back that was largely ignored.
Thu Nov 12, 2020 - 9:55 am EST
FAMVELD / SHUTTERSTOCK.COM
By Peter R. Breggin, M.D.


Editor’s note: The following is an excerpt from “COVID-19 and Public Health Totalitarianism” by Peter R. Breggin, M.D. The full report can be read at this link.
November 12, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) — The wearing of face masks has become a political litmus test used to challenge the President and to cow the people. The internet is filled with photos of strong advocates of face masks dropping them to their chin to speak clearly and to relieve discomfort. Meanwhile, beyond all reason, we see intimidated people driving alone in the cars wearing masks and walking alone in parks with their faces covered. Although face masks may protect other people who are near enough to be coughed or sneezed on, or to catch a moist exhalation of air, in most situations face masks are probably more harmful than helpful.

At the very start of the push for wearing face masks, there was a scientific pushback that was largely ignored. On April 20, 2020, a Rapid Response was published in the BMJ by Antonio Lazzarino, a physician and epidemiologist, University College London, UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, and two others. Their summary follows:

The two potential side effects that have already been acknowledged are:

(1) Wearing a face mask may give a false sense of security and make people adopt a reduction in compliance with other infection control measures, including social distancing and hands washing.

(2) Inappropriate use of face mask: people must not touch their masks, must change their single-use masks frequently or wash them regularly, dispose them correctly and adopt other management measures, otherwise their risks and those of others may increase.

Other potential side effects that we must consider are:

(3) The quality and the volume of speech between two people wearing masks is considerably compromised and they may unconsciously come closer. While one may be trained to counteract side effect, this side effect may be more difficult to tackle.

(4) Wearing a face mask makes the exhaled air go into the eyes. This generates an uncomfortable feeling and an impulse to touch your eyes. If your hands are contaminated, you are infecting yourself.

(5) Face masks make breathing more difficult. For people with COPD, face masks are in fact intolerable to wear as they worsen their breathlessness. Moreover, a fraction of carbon dioxide previously exhaled is inhaled at each respiratory cycle. Those two phenomena increase breathing frequency and deepness, and hence they increase the amount of inhaled and exhaled air. This may worsen the burden of covid-19 if infected people wearing masks spread more contaminated air. This may also worsen the clinical condition of infected people if the enhanced breathing pushes the viral load down into their lungs. [These breathing problems can also lead to lightheadedness, anxiety, and panic. PRB]

(5B) The effects described at point 5 are amplified if face masks are heavily contaminated (see point 2)

(6) While impeding person-to-person transmission is key to limiting the outbreak, so far little importance has been given to the events taking place after a transmission has happened, when innate immunity plays a crucial role. The main purpose of the innate immune response is to immediately prevent the spread and movement of foreign pathogens throughout the body. The innate immunity’s efficacy is highly dependent on the viral load. If face masks determine a humid habitat where the SARS-CoV-2 can remain active due to the water vapour continuously provided by breathing and captured by the mask fabric, they determine an increase in viral load and therefore they can cause a defeat of the innate immunity and an increase in infections. This phenomenon may also interact with and enhance previous points.

In conclusion, … It is necessary to quantify the complex interactions that may well be operating between positive and negative effects of wearing surgical masks at population level. It is not time to act without evidence. (citations omitted)
Wearing face masks has not be left to individual discretion. People have not been educated to face mask hazards and many mistakenly believe that wearing them will protect themselves as well as others from COVID-19. They fear that the failure to use them will be taken as irrational defiance of authority or lack of concern for others. Some people view the wearing of masks as a sign of their virtue; but others feel they it is a sign of conformity to over- zealous government control.

Wearing face masks cuts people off from each other’s other facial expressions and cues. It reduces verbal communications. Today, when people go outdoors or into buildings wearing a mask, they often make no attempt to make a friendly gesture and indeed they commonly avert eyes. More than anything, masks create discomfort and alienation between people, which is a hallmark of the totalitarian society.

Decades ago, In Crowds and Power, Nobel Prize Winner in Literature, Elias Canetti, wrote some astonishing passages about the negative effects of wearing masks in general:

People's attitude to this play of the features varies. In some civilizations the freedom of the face is largely restricted; it is thought improper to show pain and pleasure openly; a man shuts them away inside himself and his face remains calm. The real reason for this attitude is the desire for personal autonomy: no intrusion on oneself is permitted, nor does one intrude on anyone else. A man is supposed to have the strength to stand alone and also the strength to remain himself. The two things go hand in hand, for it is the influence of one man upon another which stimulates the unending succession of transformations. They are expressed in gestures and the movements of the face and, where these are suppressed, all transformation becomes difficult and, in the end, impossible.
A little experience of the inflexibility of such unnatural "stoics" soon leads one to understand the general significance of the mask : it is a conclusion; into it flows all the ferment of the as yet unclear and uncompleted metamorphoses which the natural human face so miraculously expresses, and there it ends. Once the mask is in position there can be no more beginnings, no groping towards something new. The mask is clear-cut; it expresses something which is quite definite, and neither more nor less than this. It is fixed; the thing it expresses cannot change. P. 374…
A mask expresses much, but hides even more. Above all it separates. P. 374
In our culture in ordinary times, the wearing of a mask or kerchief in public presents several threats, most notably, the person is sick and infectious, or the person is a criminal about to threaten us. In a time of great turmoil, with riots occurring nightly in cities around the country, and acts of vandalism in the name of political retribution or righteousness, the perpetrators happily wear masks, giving them anonymity during their perpetrations.

Do masks have any use outside of an infection disease treatment setting or when in close proximity to vulnerable and elderly people? Probably not much and they do have hazards.

Government enforced public health policies concerning the wearing of masks may do much more harm than letting health facilities set their own standards and letting the people under most circumstances rely upon voluntary social distancing when necessary.


 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Dr. Fauci Says Coronavirus "Won't Be A Pandemic For Much Longer"

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 10:28

In the latest example of the often conflicting messages about the coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday that COVID-19 "won't be a pandemic a lot longer" thanks to the rapid progress on vaccines. His message was seemingly out of step with that of President-elect Joe Biden, who has urged Americans to keep wearing those masks as cases surge to new records and the world faces a long, dark winter before vaccine distribution can begin.



Of course, as WHO and the Gates Foundation struggle to raise some $18 billion for their 'Covax' program to help vaccinate poorer nations, we've seen some scientists warn that certain countries like India and others likely won't ever be able to distribute mRNA vaccines like those being manufactured by Pfizer and Moderna, due to the complexity of shipping and storing the vaccines, which must be kept at sub-zero temps.
"Certainly it’s not going to be a pandemic for a lot longer because I believe the vaccines are going to turn that around," Fauci said.
That's not to say the virus isn't here to stay in some form, he added.
"I doubt we’re going to eradicate this," he said. "I think we need to plan that this is something we may need to maintain control over chronically. It may be something that becomes endemic that we have to just be careful about."
Biotech and pharma companies around the world have been racing to develop safe and effective vaccine against the virus, and earlier this week, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their candidate was more than 90% effective in a late-stage study. Moderna also said on Wednesday that it had enough data to assess its shot’s efficacy. The company didn’t say when the results would be released, but Dr. Fauci has said that the emergency approval could come within a week.
Dr. Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was speaking at an event organized by Chatham House.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Over 20 Million Americans Remain On Jobless Benefits

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 08:37

709,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, better than the expected 731k and and a big drop from the prior week's revised 757k print. This is the


Source: Bloomberg

Washington state and California saw the biggest jumps in jobless claims. Georgia and Texas saw the biggest improvements.



The good news for the headline-creators is that continuing claims dropped below 7 million for the first time since the lockdowns...


Source: Bloomberg

However, as initial and continuing claims have 'improved', the jobless have rolled off the regular benefits into Pandemic-specific benefits...


Source: Bloomberg

Which, in total, shows over 20 million Americans are still claiming unemployment benefits...


Source: Bloomberg

And if a Biden administration is about to lock the entire nation down for up to six weeks, expect that number to soar even higher!
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Passenger Aboard First Caribbean Cruise Since Shutdown Tests Positive For COVID-19

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 08:30

A travel reporter sent to cover the first Caribbean cruise since the springtime has instead confirmed that one passenger has already tested positive for the virus on the ship, despite attempts to build a shipboard "bubble" of COVID-free staff and passengers. It's just the latest reminder of how difficult it can be to keep COVID-19 out.

So far, only one passenger has tested positive, according to a preliminary rapid test.

Sloan said the vessel’s captain, Torbjorn Lund, announced the case via shipwide intercom just afternoon as the ship was anchored in the Grenadines. All passengers and non-essential crew were told to isolate in their cabins.



According to the reporter, all passengers had to test negative twice in order to board: Once on the day of departure, once a few days before. Then, after boarding, they would be asked to take one more test.

The sailing was the first in the Caribbean by any cruise vessel since the coronavirus crisis was declared a pandemic in March. The Caribbean is the world’s biggest cruise destination, accounting for at least a third of all cruises taken in a normal year, and the cruise industry has been eyeing a restart in the region for many months.

The passenger who tested positive felt sick leading up to the test, the captain had announced.

The ship, named SeaDream 1, is carrying 53 passengers and 66 crew. It began its cruise on Saturday from its home port of Barbados, but now it will return there immediately. As it works to test the rest of its passengers and crew, it's worth noting that the ship is armed with three Abbot Labs COVID-19 testing machines. Already, the entire crew has been tested and come back negative.

Aside from Union Island, SeaDream 1 has visited St. Vincent, and the Grenadine islands of Canouan and Tobago Cays, but passengers on the vessel have not come in contact with locals on the islands.
 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment

Biden COVID Advisor Supports Distributing Vaccine Globally Before It's Available To All Americans

Thu, 11/12/2020 - 06:30

Authored by Annaliese Levy via SaraACarter.com,

Dr. Zeke Emanuel, Joe Biden’s coronavirus advisor, wants the U.S. to distribute a COVID-19 vaccination globally before it’s available to all Americans.



Emanuel co-authored a paper in September where he supports following the “Fair Priority Model,” rather than what he and his co-authors called “vaccine nationalism.”

The Fair Priority Model focuses on three principles: benefiting people and limiting harm, prioritizing countries already disadvantaged by poverty or low life expectancy and avoiding discrimination.
The vaccine will be distributed internationally, which means giving away or selling doses of the vaccine before it’s available to every citizen in that country, Emanuel explained to Scientific American.
“Fairly distributing a COVID-19 vaccine among countries is a problem of distributive justice,” states the report co-authored by Emanuel. “Although governments will be the initial recipients of vaccine, fair distribution across countries must reflect a moral concern for the ultimate recipients: individuals.

Three values are particularly relevant: benefiting people and limiting harm, prioritizing the disadvantaged, and equal moral concern.”

The model allows the country that produces the vaccine to keep enough of a supply to reach a threshold for herd immunity. After that, the vaccine will be distributed internationally, which means giving away or selling doses of the vaccine before it’s available to every citizen in that country, Emanuel explained to Scientific American.

A government may give ‘some priority to its own citizens, not absolute priority,’ Emanuel and his co-authors wrote.

The Trump Administration had said that the U.S. will share any Coronavirus vaccine it develops with other countries after the needs of the American people are met and that the U.S. will not work with the World Health Organization (WHO) on distribution of the vaccine.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"A Vaccine For The Rich" - Pfizer's COVID-19 Jab Almost Impossible To Distribute In Poorer Countries

Wed, 11/11/2020 - 22:40
A logistical "roadmap" from Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical has been released showing the staggering logistical feats required to transport and store the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which has just been christened by Bloomberg as "the vaccine of the rich".



Offering some more insight into details that have been the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, Bloomberg reported on this "complex and costly" private network that companies are building to help distribute vaccines like Pfizer's mRNA vaccine (a technology that's also being used by another leading candidate, Moderna), that is, once it has finally been approved.

Countries that don't already have these networks will need to build them from scratch if they wish to substantially reduce the supply bottleneck, which would be "a herculean task".

That means that countries will need to build from scratch the deep-freeze production, storage and transportation networks needed for the vaccine to survive. This massive investment and coordination required all but guarantees that only rich nations will manage to dial up access, with the wealthy first in line to receive their doses.
"Its production is costly, its component is unstable, it also requires cold-chain transportation and has a short shelf life," said Ding Sheng, director of the Beijing-based Global Health Drug Discovery Institute, which has received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The WHO and Bill Gates have invested plenty of time on a PR campaign warning that access to the vaccine must be made 'universal' - that is, extended to all of earth's 7.7 billion people - or humanity won't manage to eradicate COVID-19.

Together, they've backed a project called 'Covax' which aims to raise $18 billion to pay for vaccines for poorer countries.

But even once they've been paid for, the task remains: how can we physically ship and store them in such vast quantities?

The massive expense of the infrastructure investment means many of these poorer countries are now faced with a difficult choice: invest in the supply network, even before the vaccines have been approved, and take a risk should unforeseen complications arise, or wait to see how everything pans out for the developed world, sacrificing valuable time. Many of these economies could simply wait longer until more conventional vaccines, using other technologies, such as Russia's adenovirus-vector vaccine, are available. Generally speaking, mRNA vaccines are a new class of vaccines, which is why some are apprehensive about the long-term side effects, which can't be reliably studied.
“If there is a protein-based vaccine that could achieve the same effect as an mRNA vaccine does and there’s the need to vaccinate billions of people every year, I’d go for the protein-based shots in the long run,” Ding said.
Countries like India are facing particular difficulties given that shipping regular consumer goods remains a difficult, even treacherous, process across much of the country's hinterland. Health-care experts in the country have already dismissed sub-zero storage as completely unworkable - "just forget it, one said."
Many working in the country’s public health and the pharmaceutical industry have already voiced concern that India lacks the necessary capacity and capability to deliver a vaccine across its vast rural hinterland and population of over 1.3 billion people at the breakneck speed now expected.
“Most of these vaccines need minus 70 degrees, which we just can’t do in India, just forget it,” said T. Sundararaman, a New Delhi-based global coordinator of the People’s Health Movement, an organization that brings together local activists, academics and civil society groups working on public health.

“Our current cold chains are not able to cope with some districts’ need for measles vaccines, and that’s only for children below the age of 3,” he said. “That’s a really trivial number of people compared to the numbers that will need a Covid-19 vaccine."

When asked at a Tuesday briefing if India’s government would look to buy any of the Pfizer vaccine, Rajesh Bhushan, the secretary at the health ministry, said New Delhi is in talks with all vaccine manufacturers. He added that India was in a position to “augment and strengthen” its existing cold-chain capacity, but declined to release any purchase details immediately.
So, judging by the way things are going...


...it looks like the world is headed for a tiered system: one vaccine for the wealthy, and one another for the poor.
 

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oBbbx46igk 1:52:35 min
TWiV 680: Long-term COVID and ME/CFS

•Nov 11, 2020


Vincent Racaniello
Mady Hornig, Fiona Lowenstein, and David Tuller join TWiV to discuss patients with long-term COVID and similarities and differences with ME/CFS.

*This is applicable to anyone with myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome and/or fibromyalgia! Symptoms list at this link...

 

PanBear

Veteran Member
Gates Foundation pours another $70mn into pushing Covid-19 vaccines on 3rd world countries as safety & efficacy questions remain — RT World News
Friday, November 13th 2020, 5:52:45 am

Billionaire vaccine evangelists Bill and Melinda Gates have topped off the global effort to roll out a shot against the novel coronavirus as some question the vague clinical trial results of the Gates-funded Pfizer jab.

 

coalcracker

Veteran Member
On our way to Costco today (in Oregon) we heard a commercial saying that Costco had previously allowed one to avoid wearing a mask for medical reasons. As of Monday, you must wear a mask, without exception.

Very significant. Wow! The implications of this are truly startling (once this practice gains momentum and expands beyond masks and beyond Costco).
 

TammyinWI

Talk is cheap
"The new normal," blah blah blah

The economy as we knew it might be over, Fed Chairman says
https://www.cnn.com/profiles/anneken-tappe
By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business Updated 4:57 PM ET, Thu November 12, 2020

New York (CNN Business) The Covid-19 pandemic brought the economy to a screeching halt, and while it has started its long road to recovery, the economy we knew is probably a thing of the past, said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.

"We're recovering, but to a different economy," Powell said during a virtual panel discussion at the European Central Bank's Forum on Central Banking.

The pandemic has accelerated existing trends in the economy and society, including the increasing use of technology, telework and automation, he said. This will have lasting effects on how people live and work.

While technological advances are generally positive for societies over the long term, Powell said, on a short-term basis they create disruption, and as the market adjusts to the new normal the pain isn't shared evenly.

For example, it's likely that lower-paid workers, as well as those in jobs requiring face-to-face interactions, such as retail or restaurant workers, will shoulder most of the burden of this shift. These groups, heavily skewed towards women and minorities, have already been among those most affected by pandemic layoffs, Powell said.

The post-pandemic economy is also at risk of being less productive: women have been forced to quit their jobs due to child care responsibilities during the crisis, and children aren't getting the education they deserve, Powell said.
Generally speaking, inequality holds the economy back, the central banker said.

"Even after the unemployment rate goes down and there's a vaccine, there's going to be a probably substantial group of workers who are going to need support as they're finding their way in the post-pandemic economy, because it's going to be different in some fundamental ways," Powell said.

Washington has spent trillions of dollars to boost the economy in the wake of the pandemic. But jobless workers are still in a tough spot: some benefits have already dwindled and more are set to expire at year-end. Economists are hopeful that the next administration will manage to pass another stimulus bill to help workers and businesses as the recovery continues.

More work needs to be done
Powell has long said that the economy might need more stimulus from both the government and the central bank to get through the crisis. He again echoed this sentiment on Thursday.

"My sense is that we will need to do more and that Congress will need to do more," he said.

While the prospect of a vaccine is goods news, many questions remain, including the resurgence of the virus around the world.

"The main risk we see today [...] is the further spread of disease here in the United States," he said. Several states have restarted their pandemic restrictions to curb the spread.

US stocks weakened following Powell's sobering comments. The market had lately been rallying on vaccine hopes.
The Dow (INDU) closed 1.1%, or 317 points, lower, while the broader S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) finished 0.7% lower.

 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
Yesterday, I saw another bit of evidence that those people making decisions, and telling us what we “MUST DO” are idiots, lacking even common sense, let alone more wisdom than the average citizen.
It was one sign, stating depressing stats and dire warnings, both ordering mask wearing AND urging everyone to SMILE at each other (under the mask?) to boost everyone’s mood. Duh.
 

PanBear

Veteran Member
(fair use)

The Dr. Oz Show
How to Have Family Over Safely During the Holidays

Tips for hosting dinner during a pandemic.

Nov. 13, 2020 — 6 a.m. EST
So much of our lives have been reimagined this year due to the pandemic. School has changed, work has changed, even how you go food shopping has changed. While all of this change is designed to keep us safe, it’s hard to imagine the holidays without family and friends there to celebrate with us.

To help you enjoy the holidays safely this year, health inspector Peter Delucia, renovation expert Mike Holmes and lifestyle blogger Kallie Branciforte came on The Dr. Oz Show on November 13, 2020, to share ways you can prep your home for in-person holiday festivities. Here are their tips for keeping you and your family safe.

Create a COVID-Safe Guest List

For those accustomed to large family gatherings, cutting down your guest list might be the hardest part of holiday planning. This year, you’re going to want to keep your guest list limited to immediate family or a few households that you know have been taking precautions. This is especially important if your family dinner will include loved ones who have a higher risk of catching COVID-19, such as those who are over the age of 65 or have a medical condition or issues with their immune system.

Make sure your guests know the symptoms of COVID-19 — fever, cough, sore throat, chest pain, chills, muscle aches — and that they shouldn’t attend if they experience any of those symptoms.

Lay Out the House Rules

You’re the host, which means it’s your job to set the tone for safety. Remind your guests that masks and social distancing are a must when not eating. When it comes time to eat, give your guest bags to put their masks in so they don’t get their germs on your clean table.

You can also ask your guests to get a COVID-19 test a few days before coming over. While the tests are good at picking up who has COVID-19, false negatives can — and do — happen. Try to get tested as close to your event as possible, giving yourself enough time to get results back, and then lay low until it’s time to celebrate.

Make a Safe Ventilated Space

Making sure your space has adequate airflow should be at the top of your list if you’re expecting guests who don’t live in your home. The risk of transmission is lower outdoors. So if you live somewhere warm, host your dinner outside. For those who live in cooler climates, open the windows in the front and back of your home to create airflow. It’s OK to turn on the heat if it gets too cold. Holmes also recommends installing a high-quality HEPA air filter.

Set Up Food as a Buffet

Don’t pass the potatoes this year! You can consider making your guests individual plates, like Branciforte is doing this year, or have your guests serve themselves buffet-style. Instead of leaving food on the main table, put it in a central location where people can get up and serve themselves. “Food should not be on the main table because it extends the time the food will be breathed on, and with people talking -- or yelling as is the case in many loud families on thanksgiving -- it raises that risk,” Delucia says.

To avoid crowding around the buffet, Dr. Oz advises inviting guests to come up in smaller numbers. If you need help deciding who gets to go up first, Dr. Oz suggests going by astrological sign, age order (oldest first, of course!) or doctors first!

Just because your holiday festivities might look different this year doesn’t mean they won’t still be great. You can still find ways to make this holiday season fun -- and, at the very least, the year you had to Zoom in grandma is sure to be memorable. For the latest information on COVID-19, visit Dr. Oz’s COVID-19 Center for updates.

This website is for informational and entertainment purposed only and is not a substitute for medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.
© 2020 Oz Media LLC, All Rights Reserved

049_one%20sheet_holidays.png


 

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Georgia secretary of state in quarantine as state prepares full by-hand count of presidential ballots
By Jason Morris, Caroline Kenny and Paul LeBlanc, CNN

Updated 5:04 PM ET, Thu November 12, 2020

Washington (CNN) — Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is in quarantine after his wife tested positive for Covid-19, a spokesperson in Raffensperger's office said Thursday as the state ramps up for an audit of the 2020 presidential race.

"The office is confirming that Secretary Raffensperger is being tested for COVID and will work from quarantine following a positive test for his wife," Raffensperger's spokesperson said in a statement.

"Per personnel procedures, his staff that works in his Capitol office have all been advised to be tested and to work from home. The critical job of the county-conducted election audit of every ballot will continue on schedule."

Raffensperger had announced Georgia's audit of the presidential race on Wednesday, recounting by hand the millions of ballots cast in the state, where President-elect Joe Biden is leading by about 14,000 votes. CNN has not projected a winner in the Georgia presidential race.

"With the margin being so close, it will require a full by-hand recount in each county," Raffensperger, a Republican, said at a news conference in Atlanta. "This will help build confidence."

"It will be an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once," he added.

Georgia -- and Raffensperger himself -- has been the subject of national attention in recent days as its two high-stakes US Senate races appear headed for January runoffs.

Earlier this week, the state's senators, Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, both fighting for reelection, demanded that Raffensperger resign, accusing him without evidence of failing to "deliver honest and transparent elections."

Raffensperger quickly rebuked their message on Monday in a statement that made clear "that is not going to happen."

"The voters of Georgia hired me, and the voters will be the one to fire me," he said.

He expanded on that point Wednesday, telling CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room" that no one has told him what he's accused of or why he would resign.

"Obviously, this is a very close race and people that were on one side of the aisle don't like the results. I get that. I'm a Republican," Raffensperger said.

"But the results will be the results."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

COVID Surge: Santa Clara, Marin Counties To Halt Indoor Dining; Move Back To Red Tier Imminent

November 13, 2020 at 4:45 pm

SAN JOSE (CBS SF) — Santa Clara and Marin County will halt all indoor dining amid a sudden spike of COVID-19 cases, with other Bay Area counties set to follow suit, health authorities announced Friday.

In addition, the dramatic increase in cases will assure the counties will be moved to the state’s Red Tier of coronavirus risk beginning on Tuesday when the state provides its next assessment. Unless the current surge is quickly brought under control, both counties expect to be moved to the Purple Tier in the next few weeks, according to health officials.

READ MORE: COVID Roundup: Thanksgiving Gathering Fears Mount; Cal Football Still In Limbo; State Reaches Grim Milestone

The shutdown for indoor dining in the county will go into effect on Tuesday, November 17 at 12:01 a.m., officials said. San Francisco and Contra Costa counties have already moved to pause indoor dining in addition to other rollbacks. Alameda, San Mateo and Solano counties still allow limited indoor dining, while Sonoma County does not as it remains in the Purple Tier with the most restrictive guidelines set by the state.

Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said on Friday alone, there were 362 new cases of coronavirus, while there are 110 people hospitalized in the county with the virus, a jump from an average of 80 patients in October. Cody also said the average number of new cases per day in the county has more than doubled since early October.

“It goes straight up,” said Cody, gesturing to a graph showing a steep increase in cases in the past ten days. “Similar to San Francisco, we will be closing indoor dining. We anticipate that as of Tuesday the state will be assigning us to the Red Tier.”

If Santa Clara County were to move back into the state’s red tier, outdoor bars would be forced to close and so would bowling alleys and indoor entertainment centers. Gyms would be capped at 10 percent capacity. Wineries and cardrooms would be allowed to operate, but outside only.

“We’ve had an extended, warm summer and early fall and it’s been great,” said Dan Holder, the owner of Jack Holder’s Restaurant in San Jose. Holder explained that the large, tented outdoor dining area in front of his restaurant has been a lifeline.

He said outdoor dining, in combination with limited indoor seating, has allowed his business to stay afloat. Holder is worried about the consequence of the new, stricter public health orders.

“This latest resurgence of COVID-19 is going to be a devastating blow to the hospitality industry in general. Even at 25 percent, there’s not a restaurant I know that can make a living, make a profit,” Holder said.

Jack Holder’s customers say they hope that public health officials give some thought to the community’s economic well-being when drafting new health orders.

“You’ve got to keep these places open. And everyone should just wear masks,” said James Carey.

Dr. Cody said indoor activities without masks poses the greatest risk of spreading the virus. She says it’s important to act now to gain control of rising infections, especially with the Thanksgiving holiday rapidly approaching.

In Marin County, case rates have nearly doubled in the past 10 days and continue to rise, according to Public Health Officer Dr. Matt Willis.

In addition to indoor dining at restaurants, movie theater concessions and food courts, other restrictions going into effect on Tuesday in Marin and Santa Clara Counties include:
  • Retail / malls – reduce capacity to 50%
  • Libraries – reduce capacity to 50%
  • Museums – reduce capacity to 25%
  • Places of worship – reduce capacity to 25% or 100 people (whichever is fewer)
  • Gyms and fitness centers – reduce capacity to 10%
  • Wineries – outdoor operations only
  • Family entertainment centers – outdoor operations only
  • Cardrooms – outdoor operations only
  • Indoor pools – closed
  • Bars and breweries (with no meal option) – closed
“We know that eating indoors without masks is a very high-risk activity, and as we close indoor dining we also strongly urge people not to eat or gather indoors with anyone outside their own household,” Dr. Cody said in a prepared statement. “We must come together as a community and act now to get the virus under control.”

“We’re choosing to move into the red tier before the state moves us to get in front of this surge,” Willis said in a press release. “We’re seeing more people getting sick with COVID-19 and needing hospitalization. With flu season and potential impacts from holiday gatherings and travel, it’s time to act to prevent a much larger surge.”

Health officials are especially worried about people gathering indoors with the holidays coming up and the weather getting colder. Dr. Cody and other health officers have stated they will have to consider additional closures if current trends continue.

Friday’s announcements follow a week of setbacks and reopening pauses across the Bay Area and the state in terms of rising COVID cases. Earlier Friday, Contra Costa County health officials announced that indoor dining, movie concession stands and indoor fitness centers will suspend operations starting next Tuesday.

The governors of all three states along the west coast also issued a joint travel advisory, urging visitors heading to California, Oregon and Washington or returning home from other states to self-quarantine to slow the spread of the virus. .

Earlier this week, San Francisco’s Mayor London Breed announced plans to roll back a number of reopenings, including indoor dining and indoor instruction at high schools not already reopened.

The same day Breed made that announcement, state health officials confirmed that both Contra Costa and Santa Cruz counties had moved from the Orange Tier to the Red Tier due to rising COVID-19 cases.

All greater Bay Area counties and the city of Berkeley jointly issued holiday COVID-19 guidance on Wednesday, advising residents to keep gatherings short and small to prevent spreading the coronavirus.
Devin Fehely contributed to this story.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

LATEST: Tuscany and Campania declared Covid red zones as Italy records 40,000 new cases
LATEST: Tuscany and Campania declared Covid red zones as Italy records 40,000 new cases

Naples and the surrounding Campania region has been designated a lower-risk area, sparking anger from local officials. Photo: Filippo Monteforte/AFP
The Local
news@thelocal.it
@thelocalitaly
13 November 2020
17:33 CET+01:00

Italy declared two more regions red zones and three more orange zones on Friday as the daily number of new coronavirus cases exceeded 40,000.

As Italy continues to struggle with a worsening coronavirus situation in many parts of the country, the health ministry announced the regions of Campania and Tuscany will be designated high risk "red zones".

Three more regions, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche went from being yellow to medium-risk orange zones.

Health Minister Roberto Speranza will sign an ordinance on Friday night, and the new restrictions come into force on Sunday November 15th.

AT A GLANCE: What are the coronavirus rules in my part of Italy now?
The change means Italy's regions are now divided into the following categories:
Red (high risk) zones: Calabria, Campania, Tuscany Lombardy, Piedmont, Valle d'Aosta, autonomous province of Bolzano (also known as Alto Adige/South Tyrol).
Orange (medium-high risk) zones: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Liguria, Puglia, Sicily, Marche, Umbria, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Yellow (moderate risk) zones: Lazio, Molise, Sardinia, Veneto, autonomous province of Trento (Trentino).

Jessica Phelan

@JessicaLPhelan

I've been updating this map of Italy's Covid-19 risk zones for 9 days now and the yellow parts are rapidly disappearing... https://thelocal.it/20201113/covid-19-italy-set-to-declare-more-regions-orange-and-red-zones…


Image

9:23 AM · Nov 13, 2020

7


See the latest COVID-19 information on Twitter



The health ministry announced the new classifications as it revealed the latest national health data on Friday evening.

Italy recorded 40,902 new infections in the past 24 hours according to health ministry figures.
READ ALSO: 'We are afraid': Naples residents prepare for new restrictions as hospitals overwhelmed
This was the highest daily number yet. Italy also carried out the highest number of tests yet, at 254,908.

There were 550 more deaths in the same period.

There are now 3,230 patients in intensive care in Italy, and more than 33,000 people are now in hospital - around the same number as during the peak of the first wave, in April.

Red zone regions are under the maximum restrictions after Italy introduced its three-tier system last week.

The government has now updated the regional system twice since it was introduced on Friday November 6th.

Tuscany was declared on orange zone on Wednesday, while Campania had been designated a yellow zone until now.

READ ALSO: ‘No plan, just hope’: How is Italy going to get the second wave under control?

Ministers bumped up five regions from yellow to orange zone restrictions on Wednesday, after Monday's weekly monitoring report from the Ministry of Health and the Higher Health Institute (ISS).gave a worrying picture of the coronavirus situation across the country.

"All regions are classified as being at high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic, or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks," the report read.

Health authorities have repeatedly warned that hospitals across Italy, and particularly in hard-hit areas such as Milan and Naples, are struggling to cope with a large number of patients.

Some regions have meanwhile started bringing in their own additional rules as part of efforts to avoid crowding and further transmission of the coronavirus.

Veneto has declared itself "yellow plus" and, along with Emilia-Romagna and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, will introduce new regional ordinances urging residents to avoid exercising or simply strolling on the streets of their town centres.

Q&A: Your key questions about Italy's coronavirus rules answered
1605260982_000-8uq9kr.jpg

Central Milan stands near empty after the region of Lombardy was declared a red zone on Friday November 6th. Photo: AFP

Orange zones face slightly less severe restrictions than red zones.

People in regions set to to move from yellow to orange zone restrictions will no longer be allowed to enter or leave their municipality or region without "proven" work or health-related reasons for doing so.

Bars and restaurants will close, though takeaway and delivery is still allowed.

READ ALSO: Italy's new coronavirus rules at a glance

People in red and orange zones are also asked not to move around within their municipality unless necessary.

The entire country remains under an evening curfew between 10pm and 5am.



Italy last week introduced the tiered system of restrictions, which is based on 21 different criteria, as it sought to avoid a second nationwide lockdown.

Doctors on Monday urged the government to put the whole country under lockdown.

However, Conte insisted again on Wednesday that he is trying to avoid tough national measures like those announced in March.

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases since the pandemic began in Italy passed the symbolic one million mark on Wednesday, according to official data, as health experts said the coronavirus situation in Italy is now "out of control".

An epidemic is defined as 'out of control' “when positive cases exceed one percent of the population, and (on Wednesday) we broke through the threshold of one percent of the population currently being infected with Sars-Cov-2,” Dr Nino Cartabellotta, head of Italy’s evidence-based medicine foundation, Gimbe, told reporters on Thursday.

READ ALSO: Where to find the latest Covid-19 information for your region of Italy
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

New Mexico Governor Issues Stay-at-Home Order, Closure of Non-Essential Businesses

196
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 16: U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) (C) speaks during a news conference February 16, 2017 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. House Democrats held a news conference to express their frustration after their meeting with ICE Acting Director Thomas Homan on the recent ICE raids. …
Alex Wong/Getty Images
KYLE MORRIS13 Nov 2020280

Amid a spike in coronavirus cases in the state, Democrat New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lynn Lujan Grisham has issued a stay-at-home order and demanded nonessential businesses close for 14 days.

According to Grisham, a two-week shutdown, set to begin on November 16, will attempt to curb the spread of the virus in the state.

“We are in a life-or-death situation, and if we don’t act right now, we cannot preserve the lives, we can’t keep saving lives, and we will absolutely crush our current health care system and infrastructure,” Grisham said.

Non-essential businesses include hair salons, gyms, and spas. During the 14 day shutdown, indoor dining will also be suspended. Restaurants in the state will be allowed to offer curbside pickup and delivery.

The order also limits churches and other houses of worship to 25 percent occupancy and closes indoor malls.

Grisham also stated that after the 14-day shutdown of non-essential businesses concludes, the state will transition to a three-tiered county-by-county basis on which businesses will be allowed to open.

Major cities around the country which have seen a spike in coronavirus cases have insisted that residents of cities or states cancel their holiday plans and stay at home.

Democrat Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot issued a stay-at-home advisory on Thursday and called on residents of the city to cancel their “traditional” Thanksgiving plans in an attempt to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Lightfoot’s announcement was shared in a tweet, which explained her demands for Chicagoans.

“A Stay-at-Home Advisory for Chicago will go into effect on Monday, November 16th at 6:00am,” Lightfoot wrote, adding that residents should “stay home unless for essential reasons, stop having guests over—including family members you do not live with, avoid non-essential travel,” and “cancel traditional Thanksgiving plans.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Biden Appears To Back-Pedal On Mask Pledge From A "Mandate" To An "Urging"

Fri, 11/13/2020 - 14:15
Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have previously discussed the claim of President-elect Joe Biden that he will impose a nationwide mask mandate. While most of what Biden promised as part of his pandemic plan (like free vaccinations) are already part of the federal plan, Biden insistence that he would impose a nationwide mask mandate was a distinction between the candidates during the campaign.


The pledge was questioned by some of us in terms of the federal authority to enforce such a mandate.

Now, Biden is emphasizing the mandate in his transition by this new Chief of Staff Ron Klain seemed to make a considerable qualification last night in an interview with MSNBC Lawrence O’Donnell. Klain is now clarifying that the Biden Administration would fulfill its promise of a nation mandate only “where the federal authority extends.”

He then added that they would urge simply “urge” states to follow suit.
That again sounds like what is currently being done by the CDC and what is already required in federal buildings, enclaves, installations, and bases. A presidential urging is a considerable downgrade from a federal mandate. Legally, it is like going from a promise of a moon shot to a promise to visit the local planetarium.

In the interview, Klain says that Biden has promised that on “his first day in office, I will issue a nationwide masking mandate, requiring that people wear masks where the federal authority extends and then urging governors and other local officials to impose mask mandates in their states.”

That is not quite what he promised. It was not a national “urging” but a mandate. Biden at first recognized the question over such authority but then announced that he was told by his lawyers that he has the authority to impose a nationwide mandate. Those changed positions were hit by the Trump campaign.

View: https://youtu.be/XWZ_vH9mHVQ
.15 min

Biden campaigned on the assurance that he could impose the national mandate. Now, after the election, he seems to be acknowledging that he does not have such authority.

Just as I criticized President Donald Trump for overstating his authority in the pandemic, I have questioned Biden’s claims that he could impose the national mask mandate. There is no law that expressly affords him that power as president. We have discussed Section 361 of the Public Health Service Act (PHSA), but that law grants the Secretary of Health and Human Services (and designated subordinates in the CDC) authority to make and enforce regulations necessary “to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the States or possessions, or from one State or possession into any other State or possession.”

A national mandate would push that language to the breaking point. It would change the meaning of interstate border protections into a sweeping right to regulate the intrastate conduct of citizens. Even if the law could be construed to hold such a meaning, it would raise the same federalism issues that we discussed earlier.

Now Klain seems to suggest that Biden would only order the wearing of masks in federal properties and enclaves. That is already being required by the CDC in federal buildings with signs like this one. The Biden Administration could change it to read “REALLY DO CHOOSE MASKS” but the mandate is already in place for federal buildings. Likewise, thirty-four states are already mandating masks. Some are not. It is not clear how this “urge” for the 16 remaining states differs dramatically from what the Trump Administration has stated. He may view the past calls as merely a “nudge” rather than an “urge” but the difference is hard to discern. What is clear is that Biden did not want to run on a national urging policy.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Oregon Democrat Governor Kate Brown Orders New Onerous Lockdown; Will Be Enforced By Police

By Brock Simmons
Published November 13, 2020 at 8:19pm


Clinging to delusions of serving in a fantasy Biden administration, Oregon governor Kate Brown has announced a new round of COVID lockdowns that are even more onerous than the ones she’d put in place earlier in the year. Brown vows that this time, the police will enforce her edicts.

Willamette Week reports:
Gov. Kate Brown announced today she’s imposing a two-week “freeze” on many activities in Oregon because of the sharp increase in COVID-19 infections.
The new restrictions, which go into effect Nov. 18, include restricting bars and restaurants to takeout only, limiting in-home gatherings to six people from no more than two families, capping grocery and retail stores to 75% of capacity, and limiting attendance at churches to no more than 25 people indoors or 50 outside.

The restriction on social events in private homes will be in effect on Thanksgiving Day.
For counties that have seen a particularly large increase in COVID-19 cases, Brown said the freeze would last at least four weeks. One of those counties is Multnomah.
Brown also said today that she has directed the Oregon State Police to begin coordinating with local law enforcement agencies to police the restrictions on in-home gatherings. Brown noted that households that violate the six-person limit will be committing a misdemeanor and could be to subject to citation or arrest.
“We have not chosen to enforce the law in the past,” Brown said. “Unfortunately, now we have no other option.”
Brown also wants Oregonians to continue wearing masks when outside their homes and work from home as much as possible.
Of course we can expect the new decrees to not apply to protests, where the rioters routinely destroy the city. She’ll be siccing the police on small business owners.

Her entire dictate reads:
Portland, OR—Governor Kate Brown today announced a statewide Two-Week Freeze, implementing new measures to limit gatherings and stop the rapid spread of COVID-19 across Oregon. The Two-Week Freeze measures will be in effect from Nov. 18 through Dec. 2, statewide. These risk reduction measures are critical in limiting the spread of COVID-19, reducing risk in communities more vulnerable to serious illness and death, and helping conserve hospital capacity so that all Oregonians can continue to have access to quality care.
“Since I announced a Two-Week Pause one week ago, we are seeing an alarming spike in both cases and hospitalizations,” said Governor Brown. “The virus is spreading in the community and, every day, it is infecting more and more Oregonians. This situation is dangerous and our hospitals have been sounding the alarms. If we want to give Oregon a fighting chance, we must take further measures to flatten the curve and save lives. I know this is hard, and we are weary. But, we are trying to stop this ferocious virus from quickly spreading far and wide. And in Oregon, we actually can do this.
“Given the data and modeling we are seeing, my public health experts tell me that some counties will need longer to flatten the curve. So I want to be very clear that there are some COVID-19 hotspot counties that will likely need to stay in the Freeze for much longer than two weeks. Multnomah County, for example, will be in this Freeze for at least four weeks. Our actions right now, no matter where in the state you live, are critical.”

The Two-Week Freeze measures include:

• Limiting social get-togethers (indoors and outdoors) to no more than six people, total, from no more than two households.
• Limiting faith-based organizations to a maximum of 25 people indoors or 50 people outdoors.
• Limiting eating and drinking establishments to take-out and delivery only.
• Closing gyms and fitness organizations.
• Closing indoor recreational facilities, museums, indoor entertainment activities, and indoor pools and sports courts.
• Closing zoos, gardens, aquariums, outdoor entertainment activities, and outdoor pools.
• Limiting grocery stores and pharmacies to a maximum of 75% capacity and encouraging curbside pickup.
• Limiting retail stores and retail malls (indoor and outdoor) to a maximum of 75% capacity and encouraging curbside pickup.
• Closing venues (that host or facilitate indoor or outdoor events).
• Requiring all businesses to mandate work-from-home to the greatest extent possible and closing offices to the public.
• Prohibiting indoor visiting in long-term care facilities (outdoor visitation permitted for supporting quality of life)

The Two-Week Freeze does not apply to or change current health and safety protocols for personal services (such as barber shops, hair salons, and non-medical massage therapy), congregate homeless sheltering, outdoor recreation and sports, youth programs, childcare, K-12 schools, K-12 sports currently allowed, current Division 1 and professional athletics exemptions, and higher education — all of which can continue operating under previous guidance issued by the Oregon Health Authority.
For all other permitted activities listed above, the Oregon Health Authority will be issuing sector-specific guidance within the next week. Sectors without specific prohibitions or guidance must operate under this general employer guidance.
Video of the press conference (actually starts at 16:50). Note that the doctor, who’s sitting there telling everyone to wear masks all the time, promptly removes his mask as he starts to speak:

View: https://youtu.be/_et0zYftCsw
1:19:04 min
 

PanBear

Veteran Member
Global HCQ/CQ Use
website
earth.png

spae2.png


Global HCQ/CQ studies
November 13, 2020
pdf 122 pgs



The Guardian: "No clinical trials have yet found in favour of using hydroxychloroquine against Covid-19"

Actually 107 of 139 studies show positive effects for HCQ.

22 of 22 early treatment studies show positive effects for HCQ.

View: https://twitter.com/CovidAnalysis/status/1326934575084302338
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Dr. Anthony Fauci: Americans Must ‘Do What You’re Told’ Despite ‘Independent Spirit’
13 Nov 202015,134

Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed concerns Thursday about an independent society trying to fight the coronavirus, arguing Americans should just listen to public health officials.

Fauci spoke in a forum about working with officials in the United Kingdom who faced a similar problem.

“[E]ach of our countries have that independent spirit, where we don’t want to be told what to do,” he said. “Well, I understand that, but now is the time to do what you’re told.”

Fauci spoke at the National Cathedral’s 2020 Ignatius Forum about facing a “second wave” of the virus in the Fall and the Winter.

“We’re not done, we still need to implement public health measures in a very intense way,” he said.

Fauci said he loved the federalist nature of the United States, but indicated it was problematic states had different approaches to fighting the virus.

“We had too much individual approaches towards how we were going to handle the outbreak, so our baseline never came down to the low level where we wanted it to be,” he said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci dismissed concerns about conducting the upcoming election in the era of the Chinese coronavirus — and in-person voting, particularly. Dr. Fauci: 'No Reason Why We Shouldn’t Be Able to Vote, in Person or Otherwise'
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) August 14, 2020
Fauci said there would continue to be a “core of people” who would never take a vaccine, but that it was important to combat misinformation to the larger public about the importance of vaccines.

He said it would be “problematic” if up to 50 percent of Americans refused to take the coronavirus vaccine which would allow the virus to spread. Fauci continued:
I think there has been an anti-authority component to this, we had ‘anti-vax’ people don’t like to be told to be vaccinated. Scientists are often perceived as authoritarian and sometimes in fact they’ve made that perception themselves by the way they act. I think we can improve on that.
Fauci said the United States did not do well in handling the first wave of the virus but said he did not think that more lockdowns were necessary.

“I do not believe at this point that we do need to lock down,” Fauci said, but addedt they had to remain “on the table” as a possibility for the future.
He strongly condemned a “herd immunity” strategy to deal with the virus, pointing out that of the roughly ten percent of the people in the United States who got the virus, there were 245,000 deaths and ten million infections.

Herd immunity, he said, would require a 70 percent infection rate, thus multiplying the deaths by seven-fold to an estimated 1,715,000 deaths.

“It’s not feasible and it’s not acceptable,” he said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said experts "don't know exactly" to what extent people are less likely to transmit the coronavirus when wearing a mask. Dr. Fauci: Young People 'Part of the Problem' in Coronavirus Outbreak
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) July 26, 2020
He also spoke about launching a significant study into the 20-35 percent of people who beat the virus but experienced lasting symptoms of fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle aches, and “brain fog” — difficulty in concentrating and focusing.

Fauci urged Americans to weigh seriously the consequences of a Thanksgiving gathering during the pandemic, especially among elderly and at-risk people.

“You may want to make a decision that you’re just going to forestall it,” he said.

“Now every time I say that I’m the Grinch that stole Thanksgiving. I’m not saying that.”
 
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