CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Collateral Damage? CDC Admits COVID Lockdowns Sparked Surge In Children's Mental Health Issues

Sat, 11/14/2020 - 14:40

As Joe Biden's COVID advisory team begin to set the narrative for Americans to accept a very strict nationwide lockdown for up to six weeks "because the scientists say so," the CDC has unleashed some rather painful 'science' exposing the collateral damage that tyrannical lockdowns have caused among the youngest members of our society... who can't even vote to 'throw the bums out' who put them in this situation.


Disruptions to daily life during the pandemic lockdowns, anxiety about contracting COVID-19, and social isolation are all taking a toll on children's mental health, a report released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests.

The report, based on information from a subset of hospitals in 47 states, "provides timely surveillance data concerning children's mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic."

As pandemic mitigation techniques were implemented to varying degrees of tyranny depending on the governor's political orientation, the average weekly numbers of children's emergency department visits for mental health-related reasons soared.

Compared with 2019, the proportion of mental health–related visits for children aged 5–11 and 12–17 years increased approximately 24%. and 31%, respectively.



In fact, as the chart above shows, at its worst, the proportion of mental health–related ED visits among children increased 66%, from 1,094 per 100,000 during April 14–21, 2019 to 1,820 per 100,000 during April 12–18, 2020
"Many mental disorders commence in childhood, and mental health concerns in these age groups might be exacerbated by stress related to the pandemic and abrupt disruptions to daily life associated with mitigation efforts, including anxiety about illness, social isolation, and interrupted connectedness to school," the report states.
Meanwhile, "the majority of (emergency departments) lack adequate capacity to treat pediatric mental health concerns, potentially increasing demand on systems already stressed by the COVID-19 pandemic."
It could be considerably worse, because, as the researchers note, many visits for mental health care occur outside of emergency rooms, "these data likely underestimate the actual number of mental health-related health care visits."

As a reminder, the WHO recently advised that national lockdowns were not an optimal way to control the virus... but it appears Dr. Osterholm and his ilk are unable to contemplate the second-order effects on the social order.

Presumably, the 'scientists' urging lockdowns see children's mental health deterioration as merely collateral damage on the path to control.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Democrat West Coast Governors Impose COVID Travel 'Advisory' on Free Americans
BY VICTORIA TAFT NOV 14, 2020 2:36 PM ET
Share Tweet Email Comments
39ae36de-96eb-4b74-924b-be33ec36d762-730x487.png
AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

Governors of California, Washington, and Oregon issued a “travel advisory” over the entire West Coast on Friday because of coronavirus case increases, even though the rate of the disease is lower per-hundred-thousand than in many other states. In California, cases aren’t even close to the heights they were in July. The “advisory” was timed to upset Thanksgiving and Christmas plans where, oddly, families spend time with each other.

Naturally, the phalanx of Democrats, in and out of the media, called governors Gavin Newsom, Washington’s Jay Inslee, and Kate Brown of Oregon racist and xenophobic for trying to stop people of color from roaming freely between states without a 14-day quarantine. No wait, that was what they called President Trump when he halted travel from China because that’s where the Wuhan coronavirus originated.

(For the record, “fact-checkers,” that’s called satire. You can quote me on that.)
The West Coast governors cartel cited increasing COVID cases as the reason why they don’t want you to visit your adult children or brother’s house in Encino, Mist, or Bothell.
BREAKING: Gov. Newsom issues travel advisory urging people entering California to self-quarantine for 2 weeks to slow the spread of the coronavirus California issues travel advisory urging 14-day quarantine after passing 1 million COVID-19 cases
— KTLA (@KTLA) November 13, 2020
PJMedia’s Jeff Reynolds writes that Oregon’s governor, based on questionable coronavirus data, plans to use state and local cops to break up at-home gatherings with more than six people. Antifa and BLM riots get a pass.
In California, the proposed restrictions include:
Travel Advisory for Non-Essential Travel [1]
1. Persons arriving in California from other states or countries, including returning California residents, should practice self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival. These persons should limit their interactions to their immediate household. This recommendation does not apply to individuals who cross state or country borders for essential travel. [2]
2. Californians are encouraged to stay home or in their region and avoid non-essential travel to other states or countries. Avoiding travel can reduce the risk of virus transmission and bringing the virus back to California.
In Washington, Governor Jay Inslee said that “cases” had doubled in the past two weeks. To be sure, the graph in my tweet below shows this to be the case. But look at where his two-week period starts – at a very low number. Also note the precipitous drop in cases toward the end of the graph. This could be charitably called cherry-picking.
This seems to explain why Gov Jay Inslee cited "doubling" of cases in the "last two weeks."
He cites 2 weeks as the reason why he issued a "travel advisory" with the rest of the West Coast Governors Cartel. pic.twitter.com/PJmSW3JHGC
— Victoria Taft – Parler, Minds, Facebook, 5VTShow (@VictoriaTaft) November 14, 2020
What are the underpinnings of these proposed restrictions on American citizens, where freedom of movement is a fundamental right?

According to the Associated Press, “West Coast states have some of the lowest numbers of cases per 100,000 residents.” And in California, the spike in cases came in July and the current bump of cases is far below that. But it appears that the optics of reaching a milestone number are simply too bad to ignore.
“California just surpassed a sobering threshold – one million COVID-19 cases – with no signs of the virus slowing down,” California Gov. Newsom said in a statement. “Increased cases are adding pressure on our hospital systems and threatening the lives of seniors, essential workers and vulnerable Californians.”
The effort two weeks before Thanksgiving — traditionally the busiest travel period of the year in the U.S. — coincides with warnings for people to rethink their holiday traditions and not gather in large groups or beyond their immediate families in settings where the virus could easily spread.
The West Coast states have some of the lowest number of cases per 100,000 residents. But they have also seen a troubling rise in transmissions in November, though not nearly as severe as North Dakota and South Dakota, which have the highest rates per capita.
As the conservative California Globe points out, out of all the 20,342,072 tests done thus far in the Golden State, 19,350,463 were negative, for a 95% negative rate. The death rate, based on these “case” numbers, is 1.8%. That rate is likely much lower, considering that people who have deadly diseases and also have coronavirus are counted as COVID deaths.
Here are current COVID-19 statistics for California this week:
20,342,072 tests given to California residents for COVID-19
991,609 “cases” = people who tested positive for COVID-19
19,350,463 Californians tested negative for COVID-19 (California COVID dashboard does not include this number)
18,108 deaths in California attributed to COVID-19
Why would any of these governors subject their own citizens to the whims and vicissitudes of governors their people didn’t elect?

They would say that pandemics don’t have borders.

Nevertheless, let’s take a back-of-the-envelope look at this claim. If West Coast governors were serious about saving Americans from coronavirus, they might call for a stop to riots, demand a border wall, or at least demand greater scrutiny at U.S. entries at Otay Mesa and San Ysidro. Perhaps they could even order their state troopers to watch for Panga boats full of non-citizens crashing onto Dana Point at 3:30 in the morning. Hotels where Chinese nationals come to have their U.S. citizen babies could be busted in greater numbers. They could test them on the spot!

If the governors were serious, wouldn’t they do something about the rate of COVID cases in Imperial County that in June was four times the rate as the rest of California? They won’t. To do that they’d have to stop the wave of non-citizens from Mexicali and elsewhere from seeking COVID treatment at the overly taxed Imperial County, Calif., hospitals. Non-citizens with unknown motives will be able to come and go with the ease and impunity they’ve always enjoyed in these so-called sanctuary states.

But the governors want citizens to stay home, not drive anywhere, and, in Oregon, not see more than five other people, who must be family members, under penalty of law.

California Health Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said they, as the AP put it, “chose not to ban travel or restrict flying and instead appeal to Californians’ sense of personal responsibility.”
“This is not a new concept,” Ghaly said in a Friday briefing. “This is something we asked people to do very early on with our partnership with our local health jurisdictions — you’ve seen this across other states, across the country. And we believe that this is exactly how we can add to our toolkit to reduce spread in California.”
He might want to check that toolkit of his again.

Bloomberg Law noted last April that travel restrictions, even in the age of coronavirus, are constitutionally suspect considering that freedom of movement is contained in the Privileges and Immunities and Commerce Clauses of the U.S. Constitution, not to mention the freedoms to assemble and associate.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, in a virtual speech to the Federalist Society this week, said the coronavirus has presented a real-time constitutional stress test.
“The pandemic has resulted in previously unimaginable restrictions on individual liberty,” Justice Alito said, after expressing concerns that his comments might be “twisted or misunderstood.”
“The Covid crisis has served as a sort of constitutional stress test, and in doing so it has highlighted disturbing trends that were already present before the virus struck,” he said, noting that many restrictions were issued by “executive fiat” rather than through legislation.
Pandemics don’t have borders or observe laws, but states, citizens, and governors do and must. They should act like it.
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
Well, this is an interesting video interview. It’s long, run time is 54:32. There’s a German lawyer who sued both Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen, two German behemoths. Now he’s on the case to uncover what really happened with the virus. Said this whole mess started with German leaders who took the advice of the guy who invented the PCR test for the virus, which has been determined to be a totally inaccurate test. Alluded to the fact that there were some big people behind the push to use the PCR tests, such as Bill Gates and big pharma. Have a listen if you’re so inclined.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Washington, Michigan Impose Tough New COVID-19 Restrictions; US Tops 11 Million Cases: Live Updates

Sun, 11/15/2020 - 18:44
Summary:
  • US tops 11 million cases
  • Wash. Gov Jay Inslee announces restrictions to help slow the spread of COVID
  • Mich. imposes tough new restrictions
  • NY cases top 3,600, highest daily print since the spring
  • NJ sees 2nd straight COVID record
  • NYC schools to stay open
  • US suffers 10th day of 100k+ new cases
  • 38 states report 1k+ new cases
  • Austria orders mandatory COVID tests
  • Germans will live with "considerable restrictions" for months
  • Tokyo reports another 350+ new cases as Japan's outbreak worsens
* * *
Update (1830ET): It's been an eventful afternoon for coronavirus news. As th US surpassed 11 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced strict new social distancing restrictions that will shut down bars, restaurants, gyms and other non-essential businesses for at least 3 weeks.

Meanwhile, Retail and grocery stores must limit occupancy to 25 percent, and malls are required to keep food court seating closed. Personal services, including barbershops and salons, will also be limited to 25% capacity.

"Today, Sunday, November 15, 2020, is the most dangerous public health day in the last 100 years of our state's history," Inslee said during a news conference. "A pandemic is raging in our state. Left unchecked, it will assuredly result in grossly overburdened hospitals and morgues; and keep people from obtaining routine by necessary medical treatment for non-COVID conditions."

Other measures, like limiting outdoor dining to parties of 5 or under, along with requiring people to work from home if possible, were added to the proposal.

In Michigan, meanwhile, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned during a press briefing that her state could see as many as 1,000 fatalities a week in the coming months if something isn't done. Starting Monday, she closed schools, colleges, sports games and other non-essential functions for three weeks.

Finally, the US topped 11 million cases on Sunday, one week after topping the 10 million mark.

* * *
Update (1415ET): New York Gov Andrew Cuomo just confirmed another 3,649 new cases, while total hospitalizations are just below 1,850.

The 3,650 or so new cases is the highest daily number since the spring.
Today's update on the numbers:

Of the 133,202 tests reported yesterday, 3,649 were positive (2.74% of total).

Total hospitalizations are at 1,845.

Sadly, there were 30 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/8ttDSwLGzW
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 15, 2020
The positivity rate in the state's hardest-hit areas has notably fallen.
The test positivity rate in the focus areas under NY's Micro-Cluster strategy is 4.05%.

The statewide positivity rate excluding these focus areas is 2.45%.

We continue to take strong action to respond to outbreaks and to stop the spread.

Mask Up.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 15, 2020
Earlier, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed that school wouldn't be cancelled on Monday, as the COVID situation in the city and state improved over the weekend.

* * *
Update (1315ET): For the second day in a row, New Jersey has reported a record number of new cases - 4,540, to be exact - an "ALARMING" new trend as the Garden State struggles to fend off the latest wave of COVID-19 infections.
NEW JERSEY #COVID19 UPDATE:
➡️4,540 new positive cases
➡️279,274 cumulative total cases
➡️18 new confirmed deaths
➡️14,765 total deaths

These numbers are ALARMING and continue to rise. Take this seriously. Wear a mask. Social distance. Stay safe.
New Jersey COVID-19 Information Hub pic.twitter.com/gdjREnqJyn
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 15, 2020
A second wave of #COVID19 is now here.

As we begin the holiday season, plan accordingly and keep social distancing and safety in mind.

We MUST redouble our efforts and crush the curve like we did last spring. Our lives literally depend on it.
— Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) November 15, 2020
Murphy also declared that "the second wave of COVID is now here," an indication that more restrictions might be to come. Earlier this month, Murphy imposed restrictions on when certain businesses can operate along with strict new social distancing requirements.

* * *
The US exceeded 100k newly confirmed COVID-19 cases for the tenth straight day on Saturday. Although they came in below Friday's record, new cases exceeded 160k on Saturday, leaving the 7-day average at a record high, while deaths exceeded 1,300, topping 1,000 for the fifth straight day.

One major development in the the US this weekend: All 50 states are officially back in expansionary territory after Vermont saw the virus's rate of spread climb back above 1. Over the last 24 hours, 38 of 50 states reported more than 1,000 new cases, as the virus outbreak explodes, along with hospitalizations. Even deaths, which had remained surprisingly subdued as infection rates climbed in September and October, are starting to creep upward.
Our daily update is published. States reported 1.7M tests, 163k cases, and 1,321 deaths. There are 69,455 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/SAD7LOJTDL
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 14, 2020
38 states reported over 1k cases. CO, IN, KY, MD, MN, MO, MT, ND, NH, NJ, NV, PA, WV, and UT all set records for detected cases. (5 states did not report cases.) pic.twitter.com/3Gi0ieFO3i
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 14, 2020
A CNN chyron announcing the news is going viral.
What a terrifying chyron. pic.twitter.com/UtNPWvJnRc
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) November 15, 2020
As for the 7-day average of reported deaths, since May, only one day - Aug. 4 - saw a higher 7-day number.
The 7-day average of reported deaths has now reached 1100. Since May 25, only August 4 had a higher 7-day average of COVID-19 deaths. pic.twitter.com/oocz5ZzDu8
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 14, 2020
Testing continues to climb, but at a slower rate than the growth in cases.
Testing is increasing, though much slower than case growth. pic.twitter.com/poiE2vkY2r
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 14, 2020
Perhaps the biggest news in the US Sunday morning was NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio declaring that, contrary to his comments on Friday, when he warned parents to be ready for schools to close as soon as Monday, schools instead will remain open.
Today’s indicators are similar to yesterday:

• 117 patients admitted to the hospital
• 937 new cases
• The test positivity 7-day average is 2.57%

Thankfully, schools will remain open on Monday, but we have to keep fighting back with everything we’ve got.
— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) November 15, 2020
However, he continued to urge New Yorkers not to travel for the holidays.
I know asking New Yorkers not to travel for the holidays is painful. It’s painful for me, too. But it’s a sacrifice we have to make — and I promise you next year will be better. pic.twitter.com/MewhARVeKQ
— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) November 14, 2020
In Europe, Austria just revealed that it's taking a cue from nearby Slovakia's mandatory testing programs, one of the most ambitious COVID-19 eradication methods in Europe; Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced Sunday that the country would move ahead with plans to test its entire population, which is roughly double the size of Slovakia's.

A few notable highlights: North Dakota and South Dakota are seeing rates of spread similar to Michigan back in April.
In North and South Dakota, COVID-19 deaths per million are similar to rates in Michigan back in April - and are likely to continue rising. pic.twitter.com/ouzy50Lgit
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 12, 2020
In Europe's biggest economy, Germany, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier warned that Germans will need to live with "considerable restrictions" against the spread of the virus for at least the next four to five months.

Globally, new cases topped 54 million, the latest global milestone since deaths topped 1.3 million a couple of days ago.

As far as the biggest western countries go, Europe generally continues to outpace the US.



Here's some more COVID-19 news from Sunday morning and overnight:
Margrethe Vestager, the European Union’s antitrust commissioner, said she’s been told that a “working relation” tested positive for coronavirus, according to a post on her Twitter account. Vestager has herself been tested, is in quarantine and will work from home in the coming week, she said in the post (Source: Bloomberg).

Malaysia recorded an 8.4% increase in new cases to 1,208. The capital city of Kuala Lumpur topped the list with 469 infections, overtaking the top post from Sabah state. There were three new deaths. Malaysia has been struggling to contain a new wave of cases that emerged in late September. The government has recently tightened movement controls in all almost the states in the country. New cases have topped 1,000 since Friday (Source: Bloomberg).

Tokyo reported 352 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, topping the 300 mark for a fourth consecutive day, the first such streak since early August. Japan confirmed 1,704 new cases on Friday, topping the previous record high of 1,660 marked a day earlier, with health experts warning of a possible "third wave" of infections as the winter season approaches (Source: Nikkei).

* * *
Finally, NBC News has published a report warning that widely reported side-effects caused by the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer could create unexpected problems for distribution. Like with the flu shot, the vaccine can cause muscle soreness, fatigue and other symptoms.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Lockdowns Haven't Brought Down COVID Mortality, But They Have Killed Millions Of Jobs

Sat, 11/14/2020 - 23:30
Authored by Mitch Nemeth via The Mises Institute,

During the early onset of covid-19 in the spring, government officials across the political spectrum widely agreed that government intervention and forced closure of many businesses was necessary to protect public health. This approach has clearly failed in the United States as it led to widespread economic devastation, including millions of jobs lost, bankruptcies, and extremely severe losses in profitability. Nor have states with strict lockdowns succeeded in bringing about fewer covid deaths per million than states that were less strict.



Consequently, a few months into the pandemic, some governors weighed the competing economic costs with covid-19 containment and slowly reopened their economies. Of course, these governors did not mandate businesses reopen; however, they provided businesses the option to reopen.

Hysteria ensued as many viewed easing restrictions as akin to mass murder. The Atlantic famously dubbed Georgia governor Brian Kemp’s easing of restrictions as “human sacrifice” and referred to Georgians as being in a “case study in pandemic exceptionalism.” Instead, we should view the lockdowns as a case study in the failure of heavy-handed approaches in containing a highly infectious virus.

Now that we are nine months into this pandemic, there is a clearer picture of how state government approaches varied widely. It is clear that “reopened” economies are faring much better overall than less “reopened” economies.

“Fueled by broader, faster economic reopenings following the initial coronavirus rash, conservative-leaning red states are by and large far outpacing liberal-leaning blue states in terms of putting people back to work,” writes Carrie Sheffield. This follows logically especially when considering that human beings learn to adapt very quickly. Now, we have learned much more about treating this virus and about who is most at risk from infection.

Not Everyone Can #StayHome
Even so, many proponents of lockdowns still contend that every covid infection is a failure of public policy. But this position is largely a luxury of white-collar workers who can afford to work from home. Lockdowns have been described as “the worst assault on the working class in half a century.” Martin Kulldorff, a biostatistician, says, “the blue-collar class is ‘out there working, including high-risk people in their 60s.” Kulldorff’s colleague Jay Bhattacharya notes that one reason “minority populations have had higher mortality in the U.S. from the epidemic is because they don’t often have the option…to stay at home.” In effect, top-down lockdown policies are “regressive” and reflect a “monomania,” says Dr. Bhattacharya. With this in mind, it is easy to see why more affluent Americans tend to view restrictive measures as the appropriate response.

For many Americans, prolonged periods of time without gainful employment, income, or social interaction are not only impossible but potentially deadly. Martin Kulldorff notes that covid-19 restrictions do not consider broader public health issues and create collateral damage; among the collateral damage is a “worsening incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer and an alarming decline in immunization.” Dr. Bhattacharya correctly notes that society will be “counting the health harms from these lockdowns for a very long time.”

Mixed Messages
Bhattacharya emphasized the politicization of these restrictions:
“When Black Lives Matter protests broke out in the spring, ‘1,300 epidemiologists signed a letter saying that the gatherings were consistent with good public health practice,’” while those same epidemiologists argued that “we should essentially quarantine in place.”
Such a contradiction defies logic and undercuts arguments about the lethality of this virus. If this novel virus truly were as devastating to the broader public as advertised, then political leaders supporting mass protests and riots during a pandemic seem to be ill founded. This contradiction has been cited in countless lawsuits challenging the validity and constitutionality of covid-19 restrictions.

Separately, these often heavy-handed restrictions have targeted constitutionally protected rights like the freedom of religion. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito criticized the Nevada governor’s restrictions saying, “that Nevada would discriminate in favor of the powerful gaming industry and its employees may not come as a surprise…We have a duty to defend the Constitution, and even a public health emergency does not absolve us of that responsibility.” This scathing criticism, however, did not gain the support of the Supreme Court as a 5–4 majority deferred to the governor’s “responsibility to protect the public in a pandemic.”

The Worst State and Local Offenders
Such deference may be politically beneficial for the Supreme Court, but it presents a much more significant problem for basic freedoms. For one, many of these covid restrictions have been issued by state governors or administrative agencies rather than through democratic means. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer has been targeted for her continued sidestepping of democratic channels and for her top-down approach.

These covid restrictions are somewhat meaningless without ample enforcement and resources, so many major American cities have created task forces for enforcing these covid restrictions. For example, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti has threatened to shut off public utilities for those who host massive house parties. Garcetti wants to treat private gatherings similarly to the bars and nightclubs he has forced closed. Not only is this ridiculous, but it is also authoritarian; there have been few checks on his ability to weaponize public utilities this way. The New York City Sheriff’s Office recently “busted a party of more than 200 people who were flouting coronavirus restrictions.” Their crime? Deputies found around two hundred maskless individuals “dancing, drinking and smoking hookah inside.” In typical government fashion, the owner of the venue was “slapped with five summonses…for violation of emergency orders, unlicensed sale of alcohol and unlicensed warehousing of alcohol.” What would we do without the government?

California governor Gavin Newsom has long been a part of this effort to restrict freedoms under the guise of public health. Governor Newsom and the California Department of Public Health released new “safety” guidelines for all private gatherings during the Thanksgiving holiday. According to Newsweek, “all gatherings must include no more than three households, including hosts and guests, and must be held outdoors, lasting for two hours or less.” Given Newsom’s interventionist tendencies, it is likely that these restrictions will be enforced. How will the government determine how many households are at a Thanksgiving meal and who will enforce the two-hour window? These are questions that journalists should ask.

Meanwhile, the varying levels of economic recovery between red states and blue states demonstrate how top-down policy can be a failure. Strict lockdowns have devastated millions of families' incomes while failing to bring success in suppressing covid mortality. This failed experiment must be brought to an end.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Goldman Pinpoints Temperature Below Which COVID-19 Outbreaks Start To Accelerate

Sat, 11/14/2020 - 19:00

In a recent note to clients, a team of researchers at Goldman Sachs took a close look at temperatures and studied whether there was a correlation with temperatures. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the team found a strong negative correlation between confirmed cases and temperature, with the number of the former going up while the number for the latter goes down.

As the regression modeled by Goldman shows, the further temperatures drop with a modest lag between the summer and the winter, the more extreme the surge in COVID-19 cases. This applies in both the US and Europe.


Using fixed effects modeling, the Goldman team then tried to strip out other factors to try and isolate and expose the influence of temperature on case growth.

Interestingly enough, the analysts analysis found that no matter the difference in statewide policies and enforcement, cases appeared to wax and wane along with changes in temperature, appearing to resist most efforts to control the virus.



This notion isn't all that surprising. Most other coronaviruses (ie the common cold), along with various influenza strains, are heavily influenced by temperature and seasonal effects (hence "flu season".



Medical literature cited by Goldman explains the seasonality trend in two key ways: Increase indoor social activity for "hosts", which increases exposure, along with the cold weather's impact on the immune system and general health (making individuals more vulnerable).



Armed with these models, Goldman's team of analysts produced a set of projections showing that the economies of the US and Europe will likely slow significantly during Q1 and Q4, followed by a springtime thaw as new case numbers start to recede.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Is it the flu or COVID-19? How to tell the difference
The flu and COVID-19 share several common symptoms. Here's a look at how to differentiate the two viruses.
Janet Loehrke, and Karina Zaiets, USA TODAY
Updated 4:02 p.m. PDT Oct. 19, 2020

VIDEO on site 1:02 min

COVID-19 versus the flu: Know the symptoms
We answer the often searched question: "What are the symptoms of coronavirus versus the flu?"

USA TODAY
Due to overlapping symptoms between influenza and COVID-19, physicians and health experts are urging everyone six months and older to get vaccinated for the flu this year. One infection can make you more susceptible to others by weakening your immune system.

The flu vaccine reduces the severity and risk of serious complications, according to the Mayo Clinic. But it will not protect you from COVID-19.

Many of the steps recommended to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – such as mask-wearing, hand-washing, and physical distancing – also help prevent the spread of seasonal flu. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that positive test results for flu dropped from more than 20% during the pandemic.

The flu and COVID-19 share several common symptoms. Here's a look at how to differentiate the two viruses:
1605505660621.png

How are they transmitted?

According to World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 and influenza viruses can occur through direct, indirect, or close contact with infected people through secretions such as saliva and respiratory droplets which are expelled when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks.

Droplets from a sick person can transmit the virus to other people nearby. The smallest particles may linger in the air, and another person can inhale them and become infected.

1605505710393.png

What symptoms COVID-19 and seasonal flu have in common?
According to the CDC, the flu has killed an average of 37,000 Americans per year since 2010. CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield has said he’s especially worried about the impact that an early peak of the flu season would have on the coronavirus crisis. The flu season typically gets going in late October, gathers steam over the next two months, and crests in January and February.


1605505745644.png
1605505832903.png

How flu and coronavirus symptoms typically develop
A study led by researchers from the University of Southern California determined the order of COVID-19 symptom progression, potentially making it easier to recognize an infection. The first symptom of the flu was most likely to be a cough while for COVID-19 it was fever. COVID-19 can also be distinguished by the loss of taste and smell.

However, symptoms vary from person to person. In 40% to 45% of COVID-19 cases, there may not be any symptoms at all. Fewer than 20% of infected who show up at a hospital report having had a sore throat or runny nose. Patients experience muscle weakness, inflammation, arrhythmia, and in some cases, heart attacks.
1605505897461.png


Part 1 of 2
 

Attachments

  • 1605505788983.png
    1605505788983.png
    245.5 KB · Views: 0

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2
How long does it take for symptoms to appear?
When a person is exposed to COVID-19, it can take up to two weeks before symptoms show up. It takes even more time for additional people to become ill after being exposed to that person. So several cycles of infection can occur before public health officials notice signals in data used to track the pandemic.

Experts are concerned about a second wave of COVID-19. Both the 1918 flu pandemic and the 2009 H1N1 flu epidemic began with a mild wave of infections in the spring, followed by another surge of cases in the fall.

View attachment 232900

Studies show that dual waves of coronavirus and influenza threaten to overburden the health care system. The highest rates of mortality from COVID-19 are usually in the areas where the pandemic has hit hardest, overwhelming hospital resources and staff. The overall hospitalization rate in the U.S. for flu 2019 - 2020 flu season was about 69 hospitalizations per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. For COVID-19, it's 175 per 100,000. The mortality rate for COVID-19 is thought to be substantially higher (possibly more than 10 times) than the rate for most strains of influenza.

"From a health care capacity standpoint, we're concerned about having both of these serious viruses circulating at the same time," said Lisa Maragakis, senior director of infection prevention at Johns Hopkins. "The hospitals and health system may become even more overwhelmed."

View attachment 232902

It's also possible to have flu and COVID-19 at the same time. An analysis by Public Health England found that people with the two viruses were more at risk of severe illness. Overall, 43% of people with co-infection died compared to 27% of those who had COVID-19 alone. Most cases of co-infection were in older people, and more than half of them died. People with preexisting conditions are also more vulnerable.

How long do symptoms last?

View attachment 232904

For people with a mild case of COVID-19, the recovery time can be between 1 to 2 weeks. Some cases become much worse at around the 10 to 14-day mark, these individuals often need to go to the hospital. In severe cases, the recovery time may take up to six weeks or more and there may be lasting damage to the heart kidneys, lungs and brain. Nearly 3% of those in the U.S. who contract COVID-19 die from the disease, the fatality rate is around 1% worldwide.

According to the CDC, uncomplicated flu symptoms typically are resolved after 3-7 days for most people. Although a cough and overall weakness can persist for two weeks, especially in elderly people and those that have chronic lung disease.

Age groups most at risk from Influenza

See graph at site


Young children are also at risk of severe influenza. However, the National Poll on Children's Health reported that 1 in 3 parents don't plan to get their children vaccinated for the flu this year. An outbreak of flu or other preventable disease in children could make it harder for doctors and hospitals to care for all patients.

The study recently published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine showed that fewer than half of U.S. adults and just two-thirds of children received the flu vaccine during the 2017–2018 season.

If you are worried about getting sick with COVID-19 while getting a flu shot, Maragakis recommends calling your provider and asking about safety measures they have in place.

"In my experience, every clinic and health care system facility as well as the drugstores and other places that are administering the vaccine are doing a very good job to try to keep everyone safe while they get their vaccine," Maragakis said. "It shouldn't be a risk for people to go and get their flu shots. Make sure that you wear your mask and wash your hands and practice social distancing while you do it."

See graph at site

Preparing for a second wave of coronavirus
Maragakis says that the U.S. is still in the first wave of COVID-19. However, different regions might be in different stages.

"Some of the Northern and Midwestern states appear to be having some of the highest case counts and are probably in the height of their first wave," Maragakis said. "But I think the most concerning thing is that we're seeing some regions such as in the Northeast, that had obtained very good control of the virus, that are beginning to see increases."

Experts expect a second wave of COVID-19 with the cases increasing in the fall.

With the disease now widespread, it can be harder to detect and control transmission. There are a couple of things you can do to stay prepared. Make sure to maintain a two weeks' supply of food, medicines, and supplies in case you'll have to quarantine. Continue practicing COVID-19 precautions, such as maintaining physical distance, washing hands often, and wearing a mask.

In the end, it all comes down to abiding by public health measures. The more people practice the measures, the lower is the viral transmission.


Is there a vaccine for either?
Currently, there is no approved vaccine for COVID-19. There are antiviral medications and other therapies available to treat symptoms and shorten the illness.

A flu vaccine is available. It effectively prevents the most dangerous types of influenza and reduces the duration of infection.

Contributing: Jorge L. Ortiz, USA TODAY

SOURCE CDC; The American Society for Microbiology; John Hopkins Medicine and USA TODAY research

Originally Published 3:09 p.m. PDT Oct. 13, 2020
Updated 4:02 p.m. PDT Oct. 19, 2020
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD7OOaM_hmc
17:12 min
202 - Kaiser’s Chief Health Officer Dr. Bechara Choucair On COVID-19 Response
Nov. 16, 2020

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Kaiser Permanente, the largest not-for-profit health system in the US, has mobilized in response to COVID-19. Senior vice president and chief health officer Dr. Bechara Choucair talks with Dr. Josh Sharfstein about coaching for patients who test positive, contact tracing partnerships with local health departments, and a focus on addressing patients’ social needs like rent and food so they can isolate and quarantine safely.
 

naturallysweet

Has No Life - Lives on TB
If they actually cared about people's health. They would not do lockdowns. They would encourage outdoor activities and give giant tax credits to install air cleaners or to bring outside air inside.
Being stuck inside a room or buildings , with a person who is contagious. That's a sure fire way to get people sick
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Nolte: Softening Us Up for ‘Great Reset’ Climate Lockdowns

607
Closed Chicago Theatre is seen in Chicago, Illinois, on March 21, 2020. - Almost one billion people were confined to their homes worldwide on March 21 as the global coronavirus death toll topped 12,000 and US states rolled out stay-at-home measures already imposed across swathes of Europe. More than a …
KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images
JOHN NOLTE16 Nov 2020924

Democrats are eager to lock us down again — you know, because the previous lockdowns worked out so well.

Two more weeks, y’all…

Welcome to month eight of two more weeks.

Can you imagine the corporate media if, back in April, I had told you Democrats would use the coronavirus to cancel Thanksgiving? I would have been called a conspiracy theorist, ridiculed, and fact-checked to within an inch of my life.

Without evidence, Breitbart News claims Democrats want to cancel Thanksgiving.
But here we sit, eight months into two more weeks, and these assholes are looking to cancel Thanksgiving.

And yet they are canceling Thanksgiving while they are, at the same time, behaving as though they themselves believe the coronavirus is a big hoax, isn’t really all that serious, doesn’t really require any sort of lockdown.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) wants to cancel Thanksgiving while he’s out proving he doesn’t believe the coronavirus is a serious threat by attending a big party.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) wants to cancel Thanksgiving while she’s out proving she doesn’t believe the coronavirus is a serious threat by running around maskless, getting her hair done, and planning big parties of her own (until she’s caught).

The corporate media want to cancel Thanksgiving while they are out proving they don’t believe the coronavirus is a serious threat by championing left-wing riots, left-wing protests, and celebrations for Joe Biden.

It’s like Global Warming… Look at all the people who claim the planet is warming, who tell us we are going to have to give up our freedom, but who do not themselves behave as if they believe the planet is warming — who do things like move to the very same coasts they tell us will soon flood if you and I don’t give up meat and air conditioning.
Watch the highlights from this week's Great Reset call. Featuring expert insight from @borgebrende, @AbiyAhmedAli, @gilliantett, @zahidi and more.
Read more: How to restart the global economy amid a Great Reset #TheGreatReset #wef21 pic.twitter.com/baQx0fbcPA
— World Economic Forum (@wef) June 11, 2020
Why would anyone who believes Global Warming is real move to the coast?
I wonder, though, if these schemes are somehow connected….

We’ve never before locked down the healthy, quarantined the healthy, shoved the healthy in masks… We’ve never seen that before. Lockdowns make sense in a Democrat-run city like New York, which did such a terrible job of managing the China virus their healthcare system was in danger of being overrun. That I get. If the system could collapse, I get that…

But here we are, eight months later, and we’re back to the lockdown talk, back to the two more weeks talk…

Could it be we are being softened up for climate lockdowns… That we are being conditioned for what is now being called the Great Reset?
Have you heard of the Great Reset?
The world must stop building new coal power plants and instead embrace green alternatives in a post-coronavirus reset world, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. U.N. Chief Guterres Wants End to Coal-Fired Power in Reset World
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) November 16, 2020
Scary stuff. James Bond-villain type stuff…
First reared its fascist head in June…
At a virtual meeting earlier in June hosted by the World Economic Forum, some of the planet’s most powerful business leaders, government officials and activists announced a proposal to “reset” the global economy. Instead of traditional capitalism, the high-profile group said the world should adopt more socialistic policies, such as wealth taxes, additional regulations and massive Green New Deal-like government programs.
“Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed,” wrote Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, in an article published on WEF’s website. “In short, we need a ‘Great Reset’ of capitalism.”
Schwab also said that “all aspects of our societies and economies” must be “revamped,” “from education to social contracts and working conditions.”
All that’s missing in the video below is the petting of a white cat…
By the way, this video is all premised on the coronavirus. When these fascists use phrases like “now is the time” and “window of opportunity,” they are talking about the pandemic:

View: https://youtu.be/u5pxhSnDr4U
5:08 min

Check out the World Economic Forum’s eight predictions for 2030, including, “You’ll own nothing and be happy.”

That was all from six months ago. With the threat of a Biden presidency, though, the Great Reset is making a comeback.

And so, what better way to save Mother Earth than to lock us down.

And what better way to soften us up for climate lockdowns than to lock us down during a pandemic (for the first time in history) while Gavin goes to parties and Nancy gets her hair done and the corporate media champion left-wing protests, and Barry and CNNLOL and Billy all move to the coast?

P.S. Climate Change/Global Warming is a hoax. Here’s proof.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Newsom Announces New Covid Lockdown Order – Punishes Orange County with Most Restrictive Tier, Closes Indoor Dining, Gyms – POSSIBLE STATEWIDE CURFEW
By Cristina Laila
Published November 16, 2020 at 3:00pm

IMG_6636-600x362.jpg

California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday afternoon announced a new authoritarian Covid lockdown order.

Newsom doesn’t even follow his own Covid orders. He was recently caught attending a birthday party for one of his political advisors with people from different households.

The Democrat tyrant punished the conservatives in Orange County by moving it into the most restrictive tier which will close indoor dining, gyms etc.

Orange County just flipped two congressional seats red so Newsom responded by crushing small businesses and terrorizing the residents.

40/58 California counties just moved backwards and fell “multiple tiers.”
California has 4 different Covid tiers based on daily new “cases.”

Purple is the most restrictive tier where nearly all indoor businesses are closed and yellow is the least restrictive.

At any moment, Newsom can move a county into a different tier and completely destroy its businesses.

Every single county in Southern California (including OC) is now in the most restrictive “purple” tier.

Orange County has a population of more than 3.2 million people and has recorded a total of 1,526 Covid deaths in the last 8 months.
So what did Gov. Newsom just do?
– 40/58 CA counties just moved backwards, some fell multiple tiers.
– Every single county in SoCal is now in the most restrictive “purple” tier, including OC & Ventura.
– This closes indoor dining, gyms, etc effective immediately. @FOXLA pic.twitter.com/eWcltowAUO
— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) November 16, 2020
Gavin Newsom is also considering implementing an illegal statewide curfew.

And where is Newsom looking to for guidance? Saudi Arabia.

That’s right. Not the US Constitution. Saudi Arabia.

Newsom says he is looking at studies from other countries about curfews including France and Saudi Arabia.
BREAKING: Newsom announces he is also considering implementing statewide CURFEW…Says he is looking at studies from other countries about them including France and Saudi Arabia. Nothing decided yet…but…wow….
— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) November 16, 2020
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

There Has Been A Sudden, "Huge" Drop In COVID-Testing In The US

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 15:30

The positive covid vaccine results from Pfizer last Monday, and again from Moderna today, could not have come sooner (although if they had, the outcome of the presidential election would have been vastly different for Trump, whose claims that a vaccine would be discovered this year were met with mockery by NBC's fact checkers).

Media fact-checkers said @realDonaldTrump was likely wrong about a coronavirus vaccine by year's end, and he needed a "miracle" to do it. For example, @nbcnews in May: "Fact check: Trump needs 'miracle' to be right about rosy vaccine timeline, experts say" Fact check: Trump needs 'miracle' to be right about rosy vaccine timeline, experts say
— Joel Pollak (@joelpollak) November 16, 2020

The reason why the good news was critical, is because as Bank of America writes, something big happened in the COVID crisis: a dramatic surge in new cases.



As BofA's Ethan Harris explains, on Wednesday the seven-day average hit 131k, well above the 67k peak this summer, while "even more striking is the acceleration in new case growth: from about 20% per week on the day of the election to more than 40% now." At that rate BofA calculates that new cases will more than double every two weeks. Even if the growth rate falls back to 20%, that would mean cases double every four weeks (remember what we said that the Fed needs a "new crisis" to double its QE? Well, we now know what that "crisis" is, especially since neither the Pfizer nor Moderna vaccines will be widely available until mid-2021.

So as part of its build up of the next crisis, BofA - which not long ago said that much of the surge in new cases was only due to increased testing - said that there doesn’t seem to be anything fluky about these numbers: "Cases are increasing in almost every state, and 36 states have made record highs in cases in the last week. This is quite different from the spring, when the northeast was hit very hard but most of the rest of the country was only mildly impacted."

Amusingly, refuting its own previous comments on the topic, Harris writes that "in the past, optimists [such as Harris himself] have argued that policymakers should not focus on case counts because testing and treatments have both improved significantly. Therefore as long as hospitalizations and deaths do not surge, there is no need for additional restrictions. Unfortunately according to BofA, the news isn’t good here either.

According to the bank, "while testing did more than double, from ~930k in end-September to 2.1mn at the end of last month, if true infections were not rising this should have caused a big drop in the positivity ratio, since the incremental tests are likely to be done on people who are less likely to be infected." But the positivity ratio dropped only modestly, from 4.7% to 3.7% as testing doubled.
This, to the bank's strategists, "suggests that the increase in cases was driven much more by true infections than increased testing: assuming the same 4.7% positivity ratio for the first ~930k tests, the positivity ratio for the remaining tests would still have been 3.0%."

But what is even more remarkable than the exponential grind higher in new cases, is that there has suddenly been a huge drop in testing this month, accompanied by a surge in positivity ratios, and while BofA believes this is likely due to reporting issues, it's certainly something to keep a close eye on.



Just as troubling is that while treatments have improved significantly since the spring, the data suggests that there has not been further improvement recently, as BofA explains:

Consider the following simple exercise. The lag from cases to deaths is generally estimated to be three-to-six weeks and has tended to get longer over time.

Chart 3 shows the estimated ratio of fatalities to cases using three- and six-week lag.



Using a three-week lag, the share of cases the lead to deaths is quite stable in recent months at about 1.5% to 2.0%. If we assume a six-week lag, the share has actually been trending up. That is particularly troubling because more testing is supposed to mean fewer fatalities per case as more people without symptoms are tested. Even if we assume a ratio of 1.5%, new cases over the last week would result in nearly 2,000 daily deaths a few weeks down the line. This is close to the peak in daily deaths from the spring.

Meanwhile, as we transition into the winter, cases will likely continue to rise as activities move indoors, social distancing fatigue gets worse, and people travel and gather with relatives for the holidays. According to BofA, "it seems reasonable that cases could double over the next month", which again, would be just the kind of crisis the Fed needs to expand QE.

And, as Harris adds, "in that case a flat case-fatality ratio might be too optimistic because the more the virus spreads, the harder it becomes to protect vulnerable people. Chart 3 shows that the fatality ratio has already started to rise in recent days."

What happens next is unclear.

Indeed, as BofA writes, "it's not clear what will stop this exponential expansion. The containment measures taken thus far have been very localized and limited.

Unlike in the summer, the rise in cases does not seem to have prompted much change in individual behavior. On the other hand, "the good news is that indicators of daily activity show little, if any, impact on the economy. The bad news is that daily virus data suggest little, if any, impact on the virus."

In BofA's view, it will take longer for local officials to respond to the current surge: "Because the virus is spread across the country only a few places are already running out of hospital capacity. We also understand why Governors across the US are hesitating to reimpose strict restrictions."

On the other hand, the economic costs are only about to re-emerge: Many businesses did not survive the first round of shutdowns in the spring, and additional closures could be economically devastating. This is particularly true given the lack of fiscal support for consumers and businesses this time around. There are no PPP funds, bonus unemploment benefits or aid to states to cushion the blow. Strict restrictions also might not be politically popular, given growing social distancing fatigue. All of this will have to be weighed against the political appetite for a very bad public health outcome.

BofA's concerns are not merely theoretical, as recent events in Europe have demonstrated.

With Europe a few weeks ahead of the US in the virus cycle, the scenario described above has played out in France and particularly the UK. Both countries tried to ride out the outbreak without hurting the economy, before eventually capitulating when the situation in hospitals became very challenging and ultimately, both went on to impose strict lockdowns. As we showed last week, mobility has collapsed across Europe following the new round of shutdowns, and according to BofA, the new round of restrictions will likely lead a 5% annualized GDP contraction in 4Q in Euro area, and almost an 11% drop in output in the UK.



The US is well on its way to seeing its own "crisis": last week, the city of Chicago issued a stay-at-home advisory, with many more restrictions following across the country. And while so far high frequency indicators in the US show little adverse impact from partial shutdowns...



... whether the data hold up given the latest advisory remains to be seen.
Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is the one we "modeled" over the weekend: vaccines in process of rollout will not be made available until early/mid 2021 but by then the economy - either partially or fully locked down - will be deep in a double dip recession. And with no aid coming from a deadlocked Congress, it will be up to the Fed to step up. It will do so, by doubling its monthly QE from $120BN to $240BN, in the process also ensuring it has enough capacity to monetize the entire US fiscal deficit in 2021 which is projected to hit $3.5 trillion.
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment

California Pulls COVID-19 "Emergency Break" With New Restrictions: Live Updates

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 17:37
Summary:
  • California reimposes restrictions statewide
  • Illinois reports another 11k+ new cases
  • Germany imposes new restrictions next week
  • UK reports 21k+ new cases
  • NYC hospitalizations hit new high
  • Philly may bar indoor gatherings ahead of TG
  • NYC positivity rate has climbed to 2.77%
  • BioNTech CEO says vaccine shipments to start in early Jan
  • NJ lowers limit on private indoor gatherings
  • More states tighten restrictions
  • Merkel urges more restrictions on private gatherings
  • Mexico passed 1 million cases
  • Global cases are nearing 54.5 million
  • Hungary reported a record jump in cases
  • Iran sees new record
  • South Korea reports most new cases in 11 weeks
* * *
Update (1720ET): California Gov Gavin Newsom has just pulled the "emergency break."

Newsom announced Monday that his state is moving away from the "watch list" system of tracking coronavirus trends and instead moving to a four-tier, color coded classification system that will decide which counties can move ahead. The new tiers are yellow, orange, red and purple. Yellow indicates minimal COVID-19 spread and allows for nearly all businesses to reopen indoor operations (as long as physical distancing and face-covering requirements are in place). Purple means there is widespread COVID-19 transmission in the county and nearly all businesses have to keep indoor operations closed or severely limited.
#COVID19 update:

- Average daily tests: 164,345

- Average test positivity rate: 4.6%

- Daily case average: 8,198

- Hospitalizations: 48% increase over last 2 weeks

- ICU: 39% increase over last 2 weeks
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 16, 2020
Due to the alarming increases we are seeing in #COVID19 cases, CA is pulling an emergency break.

To slow the spread, 41 counties —94% of California’s population —
will now be in purple, the most restrictive tier.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 16, 2020
Here's a quick breakdown of the tier changes courtesy of a California TV station.
  • Orange to Purple: Alameda, Butte, El Dorado, Napa, Nevada, Santa Clara, Siskiyou, Trinity, Tuolumne
  • Orange to Red: Colusa, Del Norte, Marin, Modoc, Mono, Plumas, San Mateo
  • Yellow to Orange: Calaveras, Sierra
  • Yellow to Red: Humboldt, San Francisco
  • Red to Purple: Contra Costa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Mendocino, Merced, Orange, Placer, San Benito, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo,
  • Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Stanislaus, Sutter, Ventura, Yolo, Yuba
And a map illustrating the new threat-level designations.

Source: ABC 7

Each color code has a different set of rules regarding which businesses are and aren't allowed to reopen, whether they can open indoors or outdoors, and at what capacity they can operate.

* * *
Update (1330ET): NY is seeing COVID-19 linked hospitalizations continue to climb to new multimonth highs as the outbreak worsens across the US.
Today's update on the numbers:

Of the 124,565 tests reported yesterday, 3,490 were positive (2.80% of total).

Total hospitalizations are at 1,968.

Sadly, there were 25 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/8dZCRQxhhB
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 16, 2020
The test positivity rate in the focus areas under NY's Micro-Cluster strategy is 4.19%.

The statewide positivity rate excluding these focus areas is 2.50%.

We continue to take strong action to respond to outbreaks and to stop the spread.

Mask Up.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 16, 2020
Illinois, meanwhile, reported another 11,632 new cases, while deaths declined from 72 to 37. Roughly 90k were tested. Official data show half of the 2,516 occupied ICU beds in Illinois currently are being used to treat COVID patients.

In Philadelphia, meanwhile, the city's Democratic mayor is preparing to ban all indoor gatherings the week before Thanksgiving, which would effectively be tantamount to cancelling the holiday in the city of brotherly love.

In Europe, the UK reported another 21k new cases, down from the prior day, while another 200+ deaths were also confirmed. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel just announced that Germany's partial shutdown has not been successful, so Germany will be adding restrictions next week, including urging friends to limit contacts to one regular household while avoiding private gatherings.

* * *
Update (1030ET): NYC's 7-day COVID-19 positivity rate has climbed to 2.77%, up from 2.65% on Friday. Watch his news conference below.
WATCH NOW: NYC Mayor de Blasio gives coronavirus update CBSN pic.twitter.com/XiTk9Vpk6W
— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 16, 2020
As daily cases have continued to slide since the record daily numbers released just a few days ago, research from Bank of America appears to suggest that a pullback in testing is largely to blame. So, looks like we haven't hit the peak just yet.



Meanwhile, NJ Gov Phil Murphy shared more details of the newest restrictions imposed in NJ Monday during a cable news interview: A maximum of 10 people can gather indoors, even in private residences, down from 25 earlier, while the limit on outdoor gatherings will drop from 150 to 100.

"There’s a lot of private-setting transmission," Murphy, a first-term Democrat, said Monday in an MSNBC cable television interview. Indoor restaurant dining will continue to be limited to 25% of capacity, he said.
If you're not just going to work or back, Murphy asked residents not to travel, and said that his family Thanksgiving holiday celebration had been cancelled, in favor of spending the holiday at home with his wife and kids.

Finally, BioNTech's CEO just confirmed that the company expects to start shipping vaccines in January.

* * *
Update (0800ET): After reportng back-to-back records for daily case counts in the Garden State, New Jersey Gov Phil Murphy has just announced plans to lower the state's limit on private indoor gatherings from 25 to just 10.

* * *
More US states tightened restrictions on operating hours for non-essential businesses (including restaurants and bars) on Sunday evening, including Washington State and Michigan, who imposed some of the most restrictive measures since the post-LDW surge began.

As Dr. Fauci reminded us over the weekend, more data on the leading vaccine projects in the West is expected this week, with the FDA expected to deliver its emergency-use authorization to Pfizer's vaccine, allowing the company to start selling it to the most vulnerable patients.

As some German officials propose a 4-5 month 'severe' lockdown to try and crush the virus and avoid "yo-yo" measures down the road, Chancellor Angela Merkel is reportedly pushing for more restrictions on private gatherings, after imposing new lockdown-type restrictions on businesses earlier this month.

France, which imposed a similar partial lockdown to Germany, said Monday that it's finally seeing signs of progress since imposing the newest restrictions.

US cases topped 11 million on Sunday, while Mexico became the 11th country to top 1 million confirmed COVID-19 cases. Mexico is also nearing 100,000 confirmed deaths (with the accurate total expected to be significantly higher).

Mexico's government has largely ignored accepted safety guidelines and practices to fight COVID-19. Officials have gone against recommendations to wear face mask

Globally, COVID-19 cases are nearing 54.5 million. New cases continued to slow over the last 24 hours as numbers in Europe started to soften a bit.



Here's some more COVID-19 news from overnight and Monday morning:
Hungary registered a record number of 6,495 new cases on Monday. While there’s still great pandemic pressure after stricter measures were introduced last week, there are still almost three times as many hospital beds available as hospitalized Covid-19 patients, Premier Viktor Orban said in a video posted on Facebook. However, the number of staff remains key to capacity. The coronavirus task force has recruited university students and commanded soldiers to help out in hospitals (Source: Bloomberg).

The pre-order made to seven suppliers through Europe’s ordering system would allow the vaccination of 45 million people, Les Echos reported, without citing sources. The first deliveries are slated for mid-January, with 4.4 million doses from AstraZeneca Plc and 3.5 million from BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc. Supplies from Moderna Inc. and Novavax Inc. would follow from February (Source: Bloomberg).

UK PM Boris Johnson said he is in Johnson, 56, said in a tweet he will “continue to lead on our response to the virus.” Yet the development looks set to hinder his plan to regain control of the national agenda after a chaotic week. The prime minister overcame a bout of Covid-19 in late March and April that had him in intensive care for three nights (Source: Bloomberg).

Iran reports a record 13,053 new coronavirus infections and 486 deaths over the past 24 hours as the government says it will tighten restrictions. The country totals are at 775,121 cases and 41,979 fatalities (Source: Nikkei).

Masks must be worn on Auckland public transport and on all domestic flights throughout New Zealand, effective from midnight Nov. 18, Minister for Covid-19 Response Chris Hipkins said in an emailed statement (Source: Bloomberg).

A vaccine from a unit of Johnson & Johnson is set to move to the third phase of clinical trials in the U.K. on Monday that will test the safety and effectiveness of the shot. The testing round by Janssen Pharmaceutical will include 6,000 volunteers and take place across 17 sites, according to a statement. The vaccine is the third candidate to be tested in the U.K., alongside one from an AstraZeneca Plc in partnership with the University of Oxford and another from Novavax Inc., it said (Source: Bloomberg).

South Korea reported 223 new cases in 24 hours, up from 208 a day earlier, according to data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. The number is the biggest increase in 11 weeks (Source: Bloomberg).
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Only 46% Of Americans Would Receive COVID Vaccine As Soon As It Is Available

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 17:20

With several promising COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon including Moderna and Pfizer, many Americans will soon be faced with the decision of whether or not to get vaccinated.

Harmony Healthcare IT recently surveyed 2,000 Americans from across the country to try and gauge what percentage of Americans would be willing to receive a COVID-19 vaccination.

Here’s what they found:
  • Only 46% of Americans say they would receive a COVID-19 vaccination as soon as it was made available.
  • 40% said they would get the vaccine, but prefer to see how effective and safe it is before receiving it. 14% said they would not get the vaccine under any circumstances.
  • Top reasons against getting vaccinated: 1. Side effects (67%); 2. Safety and effectiveness (38%); 3. I won’t need a vaccination (21%); 4. Don’t believe in vaccinations (9%); 5. Cost concerns (8%).

  • According to respondents, 27% believe they will be able to be vaccinated within 3-6 months of a vaccine being developed and 26% believe it will take 6 months to one year.

  • Most respondents (50%) agree that the most vulnerable and susceptible populations should be the first to receive a vaccination (unclear if this includes all members of Congress and all career politicians). According to the CDC, adults of any age with underlying medical conditions such as cancer, COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), heart disease and severe obesity, among other conditions, are at increased risk of developing severe illness from COVID-19.

  • 55% of Americans believe the government should require everyone to get vaccinated although 70% would not receive a vaccine if it isn’t approved by the FDA first.
  • 53% believe they will be able to be vaccinated within a year.
  • Once vaccinated, a quarter of respondents feel that it will still take between 1-to-2 years before a return to normalcy while 24% believe it will happen sooner (6 months to a year).
The full report can be found here.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Our COVID Police State Wants To Take Thanksgiving And Christmas Away From You Too

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 16:20
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Haven’t they taken enough away from us already? The deeply oppressive lockdowns that were instituted earlier this year plunged us into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, caused the cancellation of thousands upon thousands of important events, and sent the suicide rate absolutely skyrocketing. Once those lockdowns were lifted the American people were greatly relieved, but now our COVID police state is back for more. As I have been documenting over the last several days, new lockdowns are being instituted all over the country right now, and even our most cherished holidays are being targeted.



Let me start by discussing an interview that CNN’s Jake Tapper just conducted with Anthony Fauci. Most Americans had assumed that once a vaccine was widely distributed that we wouldn’t need masks or social distancing anymore.
Well, according to Fauci that is not the case at all
Jake Tapper said, “Once somebody has been immunized … Once the process is complete, does that mean they can take off their mask, don’t have to social distance, and go about their lives as before?”
Fauci said, “I would recommend that is not the case. I would recommend you have an added area of protection. Obviously, with 90 plus percent effective vaccine, you could feel much more confident, but I would recommend to people to not abandon all public health measures just because you’ve been vaccinated.”
As I have repeatedly warned my readers, they intend to change the way that we live permanently.

During that same interview, they were discussing a timeline for vaccine distribution, and Tapper blurted this out: “Christmas is probably not gonna be possible.”

In other words, Americans should not plan to have a normal Christmas this year because we are going to be expected to stay home, wear masks and keep members of our extended family away.

Of course Thanksgiving is a lot closer than Christmas, and our COVID overlords are telling us that we can’t have a normal Thanksgiving either.

For example, this is what the head of the CDC is saying
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield held a call with the nation’s governors on Tuesday. CNN obtained audio of the chat, in which Redfield said: “What we’re seeing as the increasing threat right now is actually acquisition of infection through small household gatherings… Particularly with Thanksgiving coming up, we think it’s really important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting.”
Needless to say, many of our top politicians are going to fall right in line with the directives that our “health authorities” have issued. For example, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has issued new restrictions for the city of Chicago which begin on Monday
The order, which begins Monday, extends through Thanksgiving festivities. Residents are “strongly advised” to not have guests in their homes outside of essential workers — even family and close friends.

“Chicago has reached a critical point in the second surge of COVID-19, demanding that we undertake this multi-faceted and comprehensive effort to stop the virus in its tracks,” said Mayor Lori Lightfoot in the release.
At least Lightfoot’s order is not as draconian as the mandate that California Governor Gavin Newsom has ordered all Californians to follow this Thanksgiving.

If you can believe it, Newsom has decided to limit Thanksgiving to a two hour “outdoor event”
Celebrities have taken to social media to slam California Governor Gavin Newsom’s ‘ridiculously unenforceable’ Thanksgiving crackdown that bans singing and shouting and limits the holiday to a two-hour outdoor event.
‘If my Aunt comes over, can I throw her a slice of turkey from the window?’ mocked actor Rob Schneider as he blasted the ‘Emperor Newsom’.
The good news is that the American people are sick and tired of having their rights taken away and are starting to push back against absurd restrictions such as these.

The bad news is that the new lockdowns that are being instituted all over the U.S. will inevitably crash our economy again.

If they last long enough, some industries may be almost entirely destroyed. For example, even before these new lockdowns we were being told that it would be a miracle if half of the hotels in New York City survive this pandemic
According to Vijay Dandapani, chief executive of the Hotel Association of New York City, if half the city’s 640 hotels survive it will be a “great” outcome. While occupancy rates have recovered from their worst point in April where occupancy was down more than 60% year on year, they remain 20% lower than for the same month in 2019, a level which means much of the debt backing the properties will be impaired (i.e., default). Should New York impose a new round of draconian lockdowns, it will only get worse.
But of course there are some businesses that are booming during this time.
For instance, psychologists and therapists are extremely busy treating those that are “feeling lonely and depressed”
Business is booming for Maria Mir. Under normal circumstances, she takes little time off in November and December; the holidays are her busy season. But this is 2020. Nothing is normal. And everyone seems to need her at once.

Mir is a licensed marriage and family therapist. She’s used to patients feeling lonely and depressed as Thanksgiving and Christmas near. But “this particular time is different,” she says. “Even people who haven’t felt lonely in the past are now feeling that isolation.”
This is yet another example that shows that elections really matter.

For years, the American people have been voting for psychotic control freaks all over the nation, and so now we shouldn’t be surprised that they are actually acting like psychotic control freaks during a major crisis.

We are being told that this is going to be a very “dark winter”, and just like we witnessed earlier this year many Americans are feverishly stocking up on food and other basic goods…
Concerns that rising cases will encourage people to buy in bulk and stock up on basic goods has prompted major grocery chains to take pre-emptive action and limit purchases.
Kroger, the largest grocery chain in the U.S., has imposed purchase limits on essential goods like bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap, according to Fox Business.
If you have not done so already, I would very much encourage you to get stocked up as well.

These are such uncertain times, and I have a feeling that things are going to get even crazier in the weeks ahead.

If the case numbers keep rising, the restrictions placed upon us are just going to become even more cumbersome, and it definitely appears that we are in for a very rough start in 2021.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"The Great Reset" Trends On Twitter After Justin Trudeau Says Pandemic Has Provided "Opportunity"

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 14:23
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

“The Great Reset” began trending on Twitter after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the coronavirus pandemic had provided an “opportunity for a reset.”



Trudeau made the comments during a United Nations video conference back in September, but they are only just receiving attention.

“Building back better means getting support to the most vulnerable while maintaining our momentum on reaching the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals)” said Trudeau.

“This pandemic has provided an opportunity for a reset – this is our chance to accelerate our pre-pandemic efforts to re-imagine economic systems that actually address global challenges like extreme poverty, inequality and climate change,” he added.
Trudeau is saying that the purpose of Coronavirus is for ‘The Great Reset’. The Cabal are coming out of hiding now
pic.twitter.com/xcCEInn5y9
— derf_anon (@derf_anon) November 15, 2020
Many Twitter users asserted that “The Great Reset” was a “conspiracy theory” despite the fact that it’s an agenda openly espoused by the World Economic Forum and numerous other financial elitists and NGOs.

As former Australian Senator Cory Bernardi outlined, “The Great Reset” is merely a re-branding of the move towards the centralization of power and a New World Order.

Bernardi noted how the coronavirus pandemic had facilitated the opportunity to impose a very similar crackdown that technocrats had previously sought to justify under the banner of climate change, namely, shutting down economies, lowering fuel consumption and airline travel as well as curtailing civil liberties and freedom of movement.

As we previously highlighted, in promoting “The Great Reset,” World Economic Forum globalist Klaus Schwab asserted that the world will “never” return to normal, despite him admitting that coronavirus “doesn’t pose a new existential threat.”

Watch the interview below with James Delingpole for a full breakdown of what “The Great Reset” actually represents.

View: https://youtu.be/ugRnjpXEwTo
33:23 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Trump COVID Adviser: "The Only Way This Stops Is If People Rise Up"

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 09:14
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Dr. Scott Atlas, a leading member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, announced Sunday that “The only way this stops is if people rise up.”


Atlas was responding to the decree of a new lockdown by Michigan Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Atlas tweeted out a thread with Whitmer’s announcement, and a graphic made by The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services highlighting what will be allowed to remain open and what will be forced to closed.

Atlas encouraged people of Michigan to “rise up”, and added “You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp”:
The only way this stops is if people rise up. You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp https://t.co/8QKBszgKTM
— Scott W. Atlas (@SWAtlasHoover) November 15, 2020
Leftists immediately accused the doctor of encouraging violence, and ‘endangering’ Whitmer’s life:
Scott atlas has blood on his hands
— ConcernedCitizenUSA (@bitch_snarky) November 15, 2020
Oh my f'ing god.... are you kidding me? Are you trying to make the calls for violence louder? Be a leader!
— TRW (@TravisWarren8) November 15, 2020
@Twitter this man is endangering the governors life. @jack @TwitterSafety
— Jane Peterson (@Jpete008) November 16, 2020
Atlas clarified that he never endorsed violence of any sort:
Hey. I NEVER was talking at all about violence. People vote, people peacefully protest. NEVER would I endorse or incite violence. NEVER!! https://t.co/LljvwMvjDV
— Scott W. Atlas (@SWAtlasHoover) November 16, 2020
Whitmer responded to Atlas during an interview with CNN, stating “We know that the White House likes to single us out here in Michigan — me out in particular. I’m not gonna be bullied into not following reputable scientists and medical professionals.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
[COMMENT: Hmmm wonder if this will effect the vote count.....]

NOVEMBER 16, 2020
Philly imposes sweeping new COVID-19 restrictions through rest of 2020Indoor dining among prohibited activities as pandemic surges to new heights
Michael Tanenbaum Headshot

BY MICHAEL TANENBAUM
PhillyVoice Staff

Philly COVID NOV16
THOM CARROLL/FOR PHILLYVOICE
Philadelphia's new COVID-19 restrictions aim to contain a surge in new cases as the city enters the winter months and awaits the availability of a vaccine.

Philadelphia officials announced significant new restrictions Monday to contain the city's rapidly surging coronavirus epidemic, which has seen a 700% rise in COVID-19 cases over the last two months.

Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Farley said the new restrictions, outlined as follows, will take effect Friday and remain in place through the end of the year:
• All indoor gatherings involving people from more than one household — both public and private — will be prohibited. While the ban on private gatherings cannot be enforced, the restriction is intended as a strong message.

• Outdoor gatherings and events will be limited based on capacity, with no food or beverages allowed. Masks are required at all times. Fans will no longer be able to attend Philadelphia Eagles games at Lincoln Financial Field. Gatherings are limited to 10% of maximum capacity of the space, or 10 people per 1,000 sq. ft. for venues with an undefined maximum capacity. No gathering can exceed 2,000 people.

• Indoor dining at restaurants is again prohibited. Outdoor dining will be limited to households only, with no more than four seats to a table.


• Gyms, museums and libraries will be closed again. Other businesses that must close include movie theaters, performance spaces, bowling alleys, arcades, casinos and game spaces. Indoor exercise classes are not permitted.

• People must work from home unless it's not possible to do so.

• Youth, community and school sports must all be shut down.

• At retail stores, capacity will be limited to five people per 1,000 square feet, including customers and staff. Barbershops, beauty salons and other personal services will remain open by appointment only, withs masks required by customers and staff at all times.


• Religious institutions will be limited to 5% capacity, with virtual services strongly encouraged.


• Colleges and high schools must conduct virtual learning only. Elementary and middle schools will be permitted to have in-person instruction, depending on the district and school guidelines. College sports may continue only if their plans are specifically approved by the city health department.
• Parks, trails, playgrounds and athletic fields will remain open for individual use only. Group sports will not be permitted.

The new restrictions are the most significant intervention taken by the city since the initial lockdown period in March and April.
The restrictions were determined after several weeks of meetings to analyze evidence on the spread of COVID-19, review models of transmission and assess projections for the city's hospitals, Mayor Jim Kenney said.

Farley described a grim picture of what could happen in Philadelphia if the restrictions were not imposed.

COVID-19 hospitalizations have doubled in Philadelphia in the last 11 days, reaching about 500 patients as of Monday. The city is on track to exceed the peak of about 1,000 patients seen during the first wave in April.

It's possible Philadelphia's hospital capacity could be surpassed by the end of the year, a scenario that could lead to 700 to 1,400 additional deaths, Farley said.

At the rate cases are growing, the city would reach as many as 3,000 new cases per day by the end of the year – if restrictions were not imposed. A record of more than 1,100 new cases were reported last Friday. The three-day total reported Monday was 2,564 new cases.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Even A Military-Enforced Quarantine Can't Stop The Virus, Study Reveals

Mon, 11/16/2020 - 21:20
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The American Institute for Economic Research,

The New England Journal of Medicine has published a study that goes to the heart of the issue of lockdowns. The question has always been whether and to what extent a lockdown, however extreme, is capable of suppressing the virus. If so, you can make an argument that at least lockdowns, despite their astronomical social and economic costs, achieve something. If not, nations of the world have embarked on a catastrophic experiment that has destroyed billions of lives, and all expectation of human rights and liberties, with no payoff at all.



AIER has long highlighted studies that show no gain in virus management from lockdowns. Even as early as April, a major data scientist said that this virus becomes endemic in 70 days after the first round of infection, regardless of policies. The largest global study of lockdowns compared with deaths as published in The Lancet found no association between coercive stringencies and deaths per million.

To test further might seem superfluous but, for whatever reason, governments all over the world, including in the US, still are under the impression that they can affect viral transmissions through a range of “nonpharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs) like mandatory masks, forced human separation, stay-at-home orders, bans of gatherings, business and school closures, and extreme travel restrictions.

Nothing like this has been tried on this scale in the whole of human history, so one might suppose that policy makers have some basis for their confidence that these measures accomplish something.

A study conducted by Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in cooperation with the Naval Medical Research Center sought to test lockdowns along with testing and isolation. In May, 3,143 new recruits to the Marines were given the option to participate in a study of frequent testing under extreme quarantine. The study was called CHARM, which stands for COVID-19 Health Action Response for Marines. Of the recruits asked, a total of 1,848 young people agreed to be guinea pigs in this experiment which involved “which included weekly qPCR testing and blood sampling for IgG antibody assessment.” In addition, the CHARM study volunteers who did test positively “on the day of enrollment (day 0) or on day 7 or day 14 were separated from their roommates and were placed in isolation.”

What did the recruits have to do? The study explains, and, as you will see, they faced an even more strict regime that has existed in civilian life in most places. All recruits, even those not in the CHARM group, did the following.
All recruits wore double-layered cloth masks at all times indoors and outdoors, except when sleeping or eating; practiced social distancing of at least 6 feet; were not allowed to leave campus; did not have access to personal electronics and other items that might contribute to surface transmission; and routinely washed their hands. They slept in double-occupancy rooms with sinks, ate in shared dining facilities, and used shared bathrooms. All recruits cleaned their rooms daily, sanitized bathrooms after each use with bleach wipes, and ate preplated meals in a dining hall that was cleaned with bleach after each platoon had eaten.

Most instruction and exercises were conducted outdoors. All movement of recruits was supervised, and unidirectional flow was implemented, with designated building entry and exit points to minimize contact among persons. All recruits, regardless of participation in the study, underwent daily temperature and symptom screening. Six instructors who were assigned to each platoon worked in 8-hour shifts and enforced the quarantine measures. If recruits reported any signs or symptoms consistent with Covid-19, they reported to sick call, underwent rapid qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, and were placed in isolation pending the results of testing.

Instructors were also restricted to campus, were required to wear masks, were provided with preplated meals, and underwent daily temperature checks and symptom screening. Instructors who were assigned to a platoon in which a positive case was diagnosed underwent rapid qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, and, if the result was positive, the instructor was removed from duty. Recruits and instructors were prohibited from interacting with campus support staff, such as janitorial and food-service personnel. After each class completed quarantine, a deep bleach cleaning of surfaces was performed in the bathrooms, showers, bedrooms, and hallways in the dormitories, and the dormitory remained unoccupied for at least 72 hours before reoccupancy.
The reputation of Marine basic training is that it is tough going but this really does take it to another level. Also, this is an environment where those in charge do not mess around. There was surely close to 100% compliance, as compared with, for example, a typical college campus.

What were the results? The virus still spread, though 90% of those who tested positive were without symptoms. Incredibly, 2% of the CHARM recruits still contracted the virus, even if all but one remained asymptomatic. “Our study showed that in a group of predominantly young male military recruits, approximately 2% became positive for SARS-CoV-2, as determined by qPCR assay, during a 2-week, strictly enforced quarantine.”

And how does this compare to the control group that was not tested and not isolated in the case of a positive case?

Have a look at this chart from the study:


New England Journal of Medicine

Which is to say that the nonparticipants actually contracted the virus at a slightly lower rate than those who were under an extreme regime.

Conversely, extreme enforcement of NPIs plus more frequent testing and isolation was associated with a greater degree of infection.
I’m grateful to Don Wolt for drawing my attention to this study, which, so far as I know, has received very little attention from any media source at all, despite having been published in the New England Journal of Medicine on November 11.

Here are four actual media headlines about the study that miss the point entirely:
  • CNN: “Many military Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, studies show”
  • SciTech Daily: “Asymptomatic COVID-19 Transmission Revealed Through Study of 2,000 Marine Recruits”
  • ABC: “Broad study of Marine recruits shows limits of COVID-19 symptom screening”
  • US Navy: “Navy/Marine Corps COVID-19 Study Findings Published in New England Journal of Medicine”
No national news story that I have found highlighted the most important finding of all: extreme quarantine plus frequent testing and isolation among military recruits did nothing to stop the virus.

The study is important because of the social structure of control here. It’s one thing to observe no effects from national lockdowns. There are countless variables here that could be invoked as cautionary notes: demographics, population density, preexisting immunities, degree of compliance, and so on. But with this Marine study, you have a near homogeneous group based on age, health, and densities of living. And even here, you see confirmed what so many other studies have shown: lockdowns are pointlessly destructive. They do not manage the disease. They crush human liberty and produce astonishing costs, such as 5.53 million years of lost life from the closing of schools alone.

The lockdowners keep telling us to pay attention to the science. That’s what we are doing. When the results contradict their pro-compulsion narrative, they pretend that the studies do not exist and barrel ahead with their scary plans to disable all social functioning in the presence of a virus. Lockdowns are not science. They never have been. They are an experiment in social/political top-down management that is without precedent in cost to life and liberty.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKTNvykP_9M
16:36 min
203 - Can COVID-19 Vaccines Be Mandatory in the US and Who Decides?
•Nov 17, 2020


Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Once COVID-19 vaccines are widely available, could they be made mandatory and, if so, what entities could enforce this? Legal and public health expert Joanne Rosen talks with Stephanie Desmon about the legislative precedent for mandatory vaccinations that dates all the way back to a 1905 Supreme Court case after a smallpox outbreak in Massachusetts. They also discuss other strategies states could consider to achieve widespread vaccination for COVID-19.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZvsqBCvB00
15:52 min
Coronavirus Update 117: Moderna COVID 19 Vaccine Explained
•Nov 17, 2020

MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY

Professor Roger Seheult, MD discusses the Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine: How it works and what we know about the safety, efficacy, and side effects at this time. No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved by the FDA, but Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech hope to receive emergency approval based on preliminary data from their ongoing vaccine trials. Moderna's two-dose vaccine regimen does not require special refrigeration (the Pfizer vaccine is supposed to be stored at -70 Celcius) but a variety of questions remain: Will the vaccine prevent transmission and asymptomatic spread? How long will immunity last? Will “94.5% effective” hold up to peer-review and additional data when it is gathered? (This video was recorded on November 17, 2020). Dr. Seheult is the co-founder and lead instructor at https://www.medcram.com

LINKS / REFERENCES: Johns Hopkins Tracker | https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Worldometer | https://www.worldometers.info/coronav... Outcomes for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in the United States During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic (JAMA Cardiology) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama... Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is strongly effective, early look at data show (STAT) | https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/16/m... mRNA Platform: Enabling Drug Discovery & Development (Moderna) | https://www.modernatx.com/mrna-techno... What is mRNA? (Moderna) | https://www.modernatx.com Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Meets its Primary Efficacy Endpoint in the First Interim Analysis of the Phase 3 COVE Study (Moderna) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-...
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
The "COVID Coup"

The "COVID Coup"

Tue, 11/17/2020 - 18:40
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via The Daily Reckoning,

What we are experiencing is a COVID coup...
While Joe Biden (apparently) won the election, the entire process was dominated by COVID precautions and distortions.

Nearly 80% of Joe Biden’s vote — according to the exit polls — named COVID as the key issue. A similar 80% of Trump’s vote saw the economy as the key issue.

In the name of COVID fears, election day was essentially cancelled and more than half the votes were cast by mail, many of them weeks before.


With the Democrats leading the push for early mail-in voting, people who feared to go to the polls (because of COVID) were overwhelmingly Biden voters.

Republicans across the country allowed the Democrats to intimidate voters with COVID myths and then use the myths as a pretext for voting by mail from home.

On the assumption that it was perilous to vote in person, mail-in ballots were authorized everywhere. More than 100 million votes were mailed-in.

Breaking the links between personal presence, IDs, signatures, ballots, and individual voters, the new procedures fostered a murky and error-prone system that should not be repeated.

The mail-in operations prolonged the voting period and changed the electoral dynamic. We can only hope that the American future was not “lost in the mail.

The Myth and Mantra of COVID
The ruling theme of the campaign was the myth and mantra of 220,000 “COVID deaths.” This claim the media inculcated and propagated relentlessly and even Trump disastrously seemed to condone. The electoral campaigns pivoted on the myth of the 220,000 or more deaths.

Actual COVID-caused deaths were less than 10% of this number and the average age of deaths was higher than the average age of all-cause deaths.
Measured by years of lost life, COVID was insignificant compared to ordinary flu, pneumonia, TB or other diseases.

The chief significance of COVID were the political lockdowns, quarantines of the healthy, and neglect of the sick in the name of reserving healthcare resources for COVID.

A probable majority of so-called “COVID deaths” occurred in nursing homes and “assisted living facilities,” where the average stay is around five months.

Unlike the flu, measles, or other diseases, which kill millions of young people, COVID chiefly kills people already in the process of dying.

In reality, our bodily biomes are full of viruses, mostly innocuous or neutralized by the immune system and many of them are coronaviruses associated with the common cold.

But the CDC classified anyone who died with a positive test as a “COVID death.” Depending on how many actual infections there were, false positives were frequent. A test that harbored 1% false positives — the lowest estimate — would produce 50% false results in the case of an infection rate of 2%.

You just can’t trust the numbers.

But as Mark Twain wrote:
“It is easier to fool the people than to convince them they have been fooled.”
This principle applies overwhelmingly to politicians. Once they have made a mistake, it is nearly impossible for them to admit error. It is far more popular to double-down on the error than to retract it.

American democracy is now fraught with pernicious myths.
Under the Democrats, it suffers from an electoral process devoted both to a myth of pandemic and to an economic program devoted to a green religious cult. On the Republican side, the Administration has enlisted in a misguided campaign based on the myth of the “trade” gap.

Democrats propose to replace this myth with the myth of CO2 pollution in a futile battle against climate change that voters rank near the bottom of their list of priorities.

For investors, the climate change paradigm means a massive national program of subsidies for a feckless transformation of our energy economy from a robust and functional system to a vulnerable, volatile, and vain apparatus marked by windmill totem poles and pervasive sunhenges.

Our meager national savings will be dissipated, and our scarce resource of arable land will be wasted in a campaign against CO2, a benign elixir of life.

Intelligent investors understand that economic growth is real learning, based on falsifiable facts rather than on political fantasies. Against the overwhelming power of socialist government, learning is constantly thwarted.

Investors will increasingly tend to look overseas. There, the best opportunities reside in Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and China.

Although it is not good news for Americans to be forced to focus much of their investment abroad, Biden’s program of national lockdowns, confiscatory taxes, and energy suppression gives us little alternative.

The upside of a Biden Administration is a possible improvement of international trade and technology policy. The only serious blunder of the Trump years was his adoption of mercantilism based on the pursuit of the chimera of a trade surplus.

The result was a retrograde effort to use U.S. technology assets to bully China. In international trade and technology policy, Biden offers some promise of improvement.

The Biden downside overseas is a catastrophic failure of his Israel Test.

Based on a keen grasp of the centrality of Israel in the American prospect, Trump triumphantly passed his Israel test as no other President, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and supporting Israel’s outreach to the Arab world beyond the seething “Palestinians.”

Kamala Harris’s eagerness to reenter the Paris climate accord is exceeded only by her passion for the cause of a Palestinian state and its renewed intifada “Peace Process” that is devoted to the destruction of Israel. The pursuit of peace by negotiating with Jihadists always produces war in the Middle East.

Opportunity Is Out There
In this maelstrom, the smart investor will keep his eye on new technologies that are not dependent on political subsidies and guarantees. Investors should spurn academic minds all sickled o’er by a pale cast of green goo. In the United States, real opportunities will often be in private companies, still below the radar, and on their way to transforming our current moment of madness into a national revival.
As economists Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy, our guides on time-prices insist, this era continues to bring massive technological progress. The last twenty years has seen an accelerating decline in the cost of nearly all goods and services, measured in the hours of work needed to purchase them. Time-prices tell us that opportunities continue to expand.

They’re just hidden behind the noise of politics and fashion.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt2FGAVeELE
15:19 min
204 - Denmark’s Mink Situation and an Update on Pets and COVID-19
•Nov 18, 2020


Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Denmark, one of world’s leading pelt producers, is culling all of its farmed mink after evidence that a different variant of SARS-CoV-2 might be circulating among the animals. Veterinary expert Dr. Meghan Davis returns to the podcast to talk with Stephanie Desmon about whether or not mink pose a danger to humans, what the news means for disease surveillance, and an update on household pets and COVID-19.
 

naturallysweet

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The "COVID Coup"

The "COVID Coup"

Tue, 11/17/2020 - 18:40
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via The Daily Reckoning,

What we are experiencing is a COVID coup...
While Joe Biden (apparently) won the election, the entire process was dominated by COVID precautions and distortions.

Nearly 80% of Joe Biden’s vote — according to the exit polls — named COVID as the key issue. A similar 80% of Trump’s vote saw the economy as the key issue.

In the name of COVID fears, election day was essentially cancelled and more than half the votes were cast by mail, many of them weeks before.


With the Democrats leading the push for early mail-in voting, people who feared to go to the polls (because of COVID) were overwhelmingly Biden voters.

Republicans across the country allowed the Democrats to intimidate voters with COVID myths and then use the myths as a pretext for voting by mail from home.

On the assumption that it was perilous to vote in person, mail-in ballots were authorized everywhere. More than 100 million votes were mailed-in.

Breaking the links between personal presence, IDs, signatures, ballots, and individual voters, the new procedures fostered a murky and error-prone system that should not be repeated.

The mail-in operations prolonged the voting period and changed the electoral dynamic. We can only hope that the American future was not “lost in the mail.

The Myth and Mantra of COVID
The ruling theme of the campaign was the myth and mantra of 220,000 “COVID deaths.” This claim the media inculcated and propagated relentlessly and even Trump disastrously seemed to condone. The electoral campaigns pivoted on the myth of the 220,000 or more deaths.

Actual COVID-caused deaths were less than 10% of this number and the average age of deaths was higher than the average age of all-cause deaths.
Measured by years of lost life, COVID was insignificant compared to ordinary flu, pneumonia, TB or other diseases.

The chief significance of COVID were the political lockdowns, quarantines of the healthy, and neglect of the sick in the name of reserving healthcare resources for COVID.

A probable majority of so-called “COVID deaths” occurred in nursing homes and “assisted living facilities,” where the average stay is around five months.

Unlike the flu, measles, or other diseases, which kill millions of young people, COVID chiefly kills people already in the process of dying.

In reality, our bodily biomes are full of viruses, mostly innocuous or neutralized by the immune system and many of them are coronaviruses associated with the common cold.

But the CDC classified anyone who died with a positive test as a “COVID death.” Depending on how many actual infections there were, false positives were frequent. A test that harbored 1% false positives — the lowest estimate — would produce 50% false results in the case of an infection rate of 2%.

You just can’t trust the numbers.

But as Mark Twain wrote:

This principle applies overwhelmingly to politicians. Once they have made a mistake, it is nearly impossible for them to admit error. It is far more popular to double-down on the error than to retract it.

American democracy is now fraught with pernicious myths.
Under the Democrats, it suffers from an electoral process devoted both to a myth of pandemic and to an economic program devoted to a green religious cult. On the Republican side, the Administration has enlisted in a misguided campaign based on the myth of the “trade” gap.

Democrats propose to replace this myth with the myth of CO2 pollution in a futile battle against climate change that voters rank near the bottom of their list of priorities.

For investors, the climate change paradigm means a massive national program of subsidies for a feckless transformation of our energy economy from a robust and functional system to a vulnerable, volatile, and vain apparatus marked by windmill totem poles and pervasive sunhenges.

Our meager national savings will be dissipated, and our scarce resource of arable land will be wasted in a campaign against CO2, a benign elixir of life.

Intelligent investors understand that economic growth is real learning, based on falsifiable facts rather than on political fantasies. Against the overwhelming power of socialist government, learning is constantly thwarted.

Investors will increasingly tend to look overseas. There, the best opportunities reside in Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and China.

Although it is not good news for Americans to be forced to focus much of their investment abroad, Biden’s program of national lockdowns, confiscatory taxes, and energy suppression gives us little alternative.

The upside of a Biden Administration is a possible improvement of international trade and technology policy. The only serious blunder of the Trump years was his adoption of mercantilism based on the pursuit of the chimera of a trade surplus.

The result was a retrograde effort to use U.S. technology assets to bully China. In international trade and technology policy, Biden offers some promise of improvement.

The Biden downside overseas is a catastrophic failure of his Israel Test.

Based on a keen grasp of the centrality of Israel in the American prospect, Trump triumphantly passed his Israel test as no other President, moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and supporting Israel’s outreach to the Arab world beyond the seething “Palestinians.”

Kamala Harris’s eagerness to reenter the Paris climate accord is exceeded only by her passion for the cause of a Palestinian state and its renewed intifada “Peace Process” that is devoted to the destruction of Israel. The pursuit of peace by negotiating with Jihadists always produces war in the Middle East.

Opportunity Is Out There
In this maelstrom, the smart investor will keep his eye on new technologies that are not dependent on political subsidies and guarantees. Investors should spurn academic minds all sickled o’er by a pale cast of green goo. In the United States, real opportunities will often be in private companies, still below the radar, and on their way to transforming our current moment of madness into a national revival.
As economists Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy, our guides on time-prices insist, this era continues to bring massive technological progress. The last twenty years has seen an accelerating decline in the cost of nearly all goods and services, measured in the hours of work needed to purchase them. Time-prices tell us that opportunities continue to expand.

They’re just hidden behind the noise of politics and fashion.
Please explain to me how covid can't kill someone with diabetes? Explain how covid didn't kill someone who had pneumonia listed on their death certificate?

The moment anyone claims to be an expert who I should listen to and trust. But makes those claims. I have to wonder why anyone would listen to them.
 

Repairman-Jack

Veteran Member
Allegheny County in PA just issued an extremely vague Stay at home advisory.

PITTSBURGH — UPDATE 4:08 p.m.: A stay-at-home and “stop social gatherings” advisory has been issued for Allegheny County as COVID-19 cases continue to rise.

Allegheny County Health Department Director Dr. Debra Bogen is asking people to stay home unless they need groceries or medical care.

She is also asking residents to not have guests in their home, unless they are essential workers like childcare or home healthcare workers, and to cancel any Thanksgiving plans they have with others to avoid gathering.

Content Continues Below


Bogen said if cases increase, she can issue an order.

County is asking people to stay home unless they need groceries or medical care. @WPXI
— Amy Hudak (@amy_hudak) November 18, 2020

Bogen said she’s concerned about stressing our hospital systems and not having enough healthcare workers to handle this surge.


Stay-at-home, stop social gatherings advisory issued for Allegheny County as COVID-19 cases continue to rise
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqNxSRcIQPY
7:49 min
How Doctors Can Predict Who Dies From COVID-19
•Nov 18, 2020


Doctor Mike Hansen


How doctors can predict which patients are more likely to die of COVID-19

There are a number of studies that have come out about COVID-19 prognosis. We now have a powerful way to predict which patients with COVID-19 pnemonia are more likely to die, and more likely to require longer stays in the hospital.

We already know that less than 15% of people who get COVID-19 have severe disease to the point of requiring hospitalization. Less than 5% of people who get coronavirus require ICU. For those with COVID-19 pnemonia who require ICU, and for some of the other patients in the hospital who might not necessarily need ICU, these are the patients who have the cytokine storm that we keep hearing about, meaning the immune system is going haywire, and there is a ton of inflammation taking place in the body….especially the lungs. But now, we have a more specific way of predicting who is more likely to develop cytokine storm, and therefore more likely to die, and who is more likely to require a longer stay in the hospital….and its based on the bloodwork we get when patients are hospitalized.

When we get bloodwork, we’re doing various lab tests. Most commonly a complete blood count, or CBC, and a complete metabolic panel, or CMP. We often check other things as well, like troponin, d-dimer, LDH, ferritin, and CRP. A complete blood count is specifically looking at 3 things: levels of hemoglobin, platelets, and white blood cells. We can see not only the total number of WBC, but also the breakdown of the percentages of the types of white blood cells, meaning, what percentage are neutrophils, monocytes, lymphocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Lymphocytes generally make up about 15-45% of WBC. This is very important as it pertains to COVID-19, and you’ll see why in a little bit.

The CMP stands for complete metabolic panel, and that is looking at levels of sodium, potassium, chloride, bicarbonate, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, glucose, calcium, bilirubin, albumin, and liver enzymes like AST, ALT, and alkaline phosphatase. Some of these also have important implications when it comes to COVID-19 disease severity. Because In the recent study done at Temple University, they analyzed over 500 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, all of which had inflammation in their lungs seen on CT scan of the chest (show). The determined the criteria for COVID-19 cytokine storm. For patients who met these criteria, their length of stay in the hospital was on average 15 days, compared to 6 days if they did not meet criteria. Mortality was 28.8% in the group that met criteria, vs 6.6% in those who did not meet criteria.

So if they met cytokine storm criteria, their likelihood of dying was 4 times higher. And how accurate was this prediction model? Pretty accurate, as this study had a specificity of 79% and a sensitivity of 85%, which is a lot of predictive power. Most of the patients who met criteria for CS did so at the time of admission or shortly after. This suggests that there is an early and rapid progression in these patients, and also suggests that there is a low likelihood of developing cytokine storm after 10 days of hospitalization.

So based on these specific lab parameters, this is how doctors can predict which patients are more likely to die of COVID-19. And I do find that this study correlates with what I’ve seen in my personal experience with hospitalized covid patients. And yes, the man whose CT scan I showed you earlier in this video, he met all of these criteria for cytokine storm, and he did so as soon within 24 hours of being admitted to the hospital.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Joe Biden Coronavirus Adviser Urges National Lockdown for ‘4 to 6 Weeks’

10,385
FORT LAUDERDALE, FL - OCTOBER 29: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters while making a visit to a voter mobilization center on October 29, 2020 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Biden is campaigning in Florida on Thursday, with drive-in rallies in Tampa and Broward County. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty …
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
KYLE OLSON11 Nov 202011,098

An adviser to Joe Biden on coronavirus has floated the idea of a nationwide lockdown for “four to six weeks.”

Dr. Michael Osterholm was appointed to Biden’s 12-person Covid advisory board on Monday.

On Wednesday, he appeared on CNBC and attempted to rationalize a national lockdown order.

“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individual workers, for losses to small companies, to medium-sized companies or city, state, county governments. We could do all of that,” he said.

“If we did that, then we could lock down for four-to-six weeks.”

Osterholm claimed that would help get the virus under control, “like they did in New Zealand and Australia.”

In August, Osterholm said the state-led lockdowns did not go far enough.
“The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential,” he wrote in the New York Times, along with Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari.

“To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible.”
Biden said during the campaign that he would be open to a national lockdown if that is what the “scientists” told him to do.

In August, World News Tonight anchor David Muir predicted coronavirus and the flu would “combine” in January.
“I would shut it down. I would listen to the scientists.”
Joe Biden tells @DavidMuir in an exclusive interview that as president, he would shut the country down to stop the spread of COVID-19 if the move was recommended by scientists. https://t.co/T9rJgTWcDN pic.twitter.com/bapv7Rui6U
— World News Tonight (@ABCWorldNews) August 23, 2020
“Would you be prepared to shut this country down again?” Muir asked.
Biden indicated he would.

“So if the scientists say, ‘Shut it down’ ….” Muir continued.
“I would shut it down. I would listen to the scientists,” Biden said.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Trump Admin’s Giroir: Coronavirus Surge ‘Absolutely Dangerous Situation’ — ‘This Is Not Crying Wolf’

Video on site 4:36 min

Health and Human Services assistant secretary ADM Brett P. Giroir, M.D., said Wednesday on MSNBC that the country faces an “absolutely dangerous situation” from the coronavirus pandemic in the next few months until a vaccine is available.

Giroir said, “Right now we’re in the steepest number of rise of cases, hospitalizations are going up 25% week over week. Our deaths are going up 25% week over week. And this is not going in the right direction. We are at an absolutely critical, dangerous point. I want to urge everyone that the only way that we get out of this until we have a vaccine is to absolutely wear a mask when you’re in public. We know that local or state mask mandates tend to work, and many places have instituted that. In most places, we are going to have to limit indoor dining and indoor bars. That doesn’t mean take-out needs to be limited.

Many people want their Thanksgiving dinner by take-out, that’s fantastic. We’ll have to limit those kinds of things like they are during in Europe.”

He continued, “Right now, we’re in an absolutely dangerous situation that we have to take with the utmost seriousness. This is not crying wolf. This is the worst rate of rise in cases that we’ve seen in the pandemic in the United States, and right now, there’s no sign of flattening. We all have to be incredible concerned, we all have to be diligent, we have to make clear choices to wear our masks, physically distance, and try to make a better choice every day about how you’ll gather, where you’ll gather, and how to protect the vulnerable.”

Giroir added, “I lose sleep at night over where we are in the pandemic right now.

But we all also know how to beat this, right? There’s a playbook that we’ve done here. The public health professionals on the Biden team know that playbook. It’s being done in the UK, in France, to flatten their curves, and we absolutely have to do it now. We are all going to be on the same page in the public health measures because there’s a clear playbook. And again, we don’t have to do this for six months, nine months a year. The vaccines are around the corner. But if we don’t institute these measures and be very rigorous at the state and local levels about limiting certain businesses, not all businesses, most businesses can stay open, k-12 can stay open. We have to have masks. We have to limit indoor crowded spaces. If we do not do that, we will lose tens of thousands of Americans by the time the vaccine is out and widely distributed. So I am urging everyone, and you will hear every doc on the task force saying the same thing, that this is really crunch time. This is not crying wolf. This is a time that we need to really double down, because we are at the most serious and dangerous part of the pandemic that we have been in, in the United States until this time.”
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Far Deadlier Strain Of Coronavirus Discovered In South Australia

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 21:30
As researchers struggle to understand what makes infection with COVID-19 so mild in some cases, and so deadly in others, we have kept a close eye out for any new links between symptoms different strains of the virus. And on Wednesday we noticed new comments from South Australia's top health official who warned that a particularly deadly strain of SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in the state.

Chief Health Officer Professor Nicola Spurrier explained that the reason for the recently imposed six-day lockdown is the fact that "this particular strain has had certain characteristics" she said.



The State of South Australia, which became home to this dramatic scene yesterday, is also bracing for the risk that this new strain could spread more quickly, in addition to being more deadly. Professor Spurrier said a typical generation, or stage, of the virus was only about three days.
"We also know, because of that characteristic, that what we call a generation, is only about three days and a generation is when one case is passing it on to the next level, and then that (next) level, so if they pass it on to two people, they will pass it on to another lot of people, and that is your third generation," she said.
Already, the virus has progressed to the fifth generation, she said.
"At the moment in SA we have done contact tracing to the fourth generation but the fifth generation is out there in our community and at the moment we are contact tracing to get on to that generation and that is the Woodville pizza bar."
Authorities have traced the local outbreak to a pizza shop in Parafield. The cluster began with a worker at Peppers Warmouth, which is being used as a quarantine hotel, was infected with the virus.

By tracing the spread of certain strains of the virus, researchers in the US have hypothesized that the virus was spread to New York from Europe, before moving to the rest of the country east of the Mississippi, while other strains colonized China and the west.

Though SA's infection rate remains muted, officials have reported two new cases today, taking the total to 22, while another 12 people are still under investigation.

But as residents rush to get tested, we can't help but wonder if public health officials might be playing up the strain angle to coax people into obeying the state's six day lockdown.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

US COVID-19 Deaths Top 250,000 As Mortality Worst Since Spring: Live Updates

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 18:42
Summary:
  • US COVID deaths top 250k
  • Gov Cuomo says Buffalo is worst hit part of the state
  • US suffers most new deaths in months
  • Pfizer vaccine now 95% effective
  • Lucira home test approved
  • Sweden suffers most new deaths in months
  • FDA panel to meet next month to discuss vaccines
  • Tokyo sees record jump in cases
  • PA orders new restrictions
  • India outbreak continues to weaken
  • LA County prepares new curfew orders
  • Sinovac appears to be safe per trial data
* * *
Update (1840ET): COVID-19 has killed more than 250,000 people in the US in under than 10 months, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

* * *
Update (1345ET): Gov Cuomo is holding his latest COVID briefing from Albany after urging new yorkers via tweet to limit indoor group dinners this Thanksgiving holiday.
In Albany holding a briefing. Watch on Facebook Live here:Gov. Cuomo Holds Press Briefing
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 18, 2020
Cuomo started by chiding NYers for causing this latest uptick by ignoring the social distancing rules.
"If you didn't eat the cheesecake, you wouldn't have a weight problem," he said.
Of course, that ignores the fact that roughly 80% of those infected wear masks.
Cuomo, who started the Q&A by squabbling with a couple of reporters, started by saying NYC could enter an "orange zone" - which would require schools to close - by tomorrow, though he told reporters that schools wouldn't be closed tomorrow.

Under a preexisting law, the Bronx has been designated as a yellow zone. A yellow zone in Queens is also being expanded. This will require additional testing of school teachers and personnel. However, if the city hits the 3% 7-day positivity threshold, Cuomo said, the entire city would become an orange zone, causing schools to close.

Moving on, Cuomo said during the briefing that Western New York is currently experiencing the "worst situation" in the state of New York, with a positivity rate of 7.3% in Buffalo. Additional restrictions will be imposed in parts of Buffalo too, with one yellow zone becoming an orange zone (which requires schools to go remote).

* * *
The biggest COVID-19 related news on Wednesday is the release of the final data from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine trial, which showed the vaccine to be 95% effective, on par with Moderna's mRNA vaccine results, which were released earlier in the week. While we await Moderna's "final" data showing its vaccine to be 96% effective, it's worth noting that this wasn't the only new development in the battle against the virus.
Following the announcement, it was reported that a critical FDA panel will meet on Dec. 8 to discuss the first wave of COVID-19 vaccines, raising the possibility that the first general-use approvals might come around then, or shortly after.



Lucira's rapid home test for the virus was just approved for emergency use by the FDA on Wednesday, granting a powerful new tool that can allow exposed persons to text themselves without potentially putting others at risk. The test is the first that can be fully self-administered, and it can provide results at home in 30 minutes or less. The approval comes at a time when the US is reporting an average of 150,000 new coronavirus cases per day.
“This new testing option is an important diagnostic advancement to address the pandemic and reduce the public burden of disease transmission,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn in the statement.
In other news, after announcing early Wednesday (local time) that Tokyo would be placed on the highest new alert level to stop the spread of the virus, daily coronavirus cases in Tokyo hit a new record of 493 on Wednesday, topping the previous record of 472 set on Aug. 1.

Across the US, 20 states are seeing hospitalizations reach peak levels.



Deaths are surging higher in the Midwest to new record levels, though they're also rising in other regions as well. The US reported more than 1,550 new deaths yesterday, its largest daily tally since the spring.



Over in Europe, Sweden just reported 96 deaths in a single day, its highest daily tally in at least three months. The new numbers brought Sweden's death toll to 6,321. By comparison, Sweden reported 4,007 new cases on Wednesday, vs. 5,990 the day before.

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

Yesterday, Pennsylvania's Secretary of Health announced new targeted efforts to slow the spread of the virus in the state, including strengthening a mandatory mask order, along with a new mandate for those traveling to PA from out of state (Source: WGAL).

Following this morning's Pfizer news, the Indian government is reportedly in talks with Pfizer and Moderna for COVID-19 vaccine.

Los Angeles County plans to implement a curfew from 2200-0600 beginning on Friday night and restaurants with outdoor dining, breweries and wineries will be reduced to 50% capacity (Source: Newswires).

The US isn't the only country with some helpful vaccine news: Sinovac's vaccine CORONAVAC appeared to be safe and well tolerated at all doses according to Phase 1/2 study, while phase 3 will be crucial to determine the immune response according to researchers. Researchers also stated the vaccine is suitable for emergency use during the pandemic and noted that antibody levels induced by the vaccine were lower than those seen in people that have recovered from the virus.

Tokyo is preparing to raise its coronavirus infection alert status to the highest of level 4. Elsewhere, South Australia’s Premier announced mobility restrictions amid the ongoing outbreak in the state with all schools, universities, takeaway food, pubs and cafes to be shut for 6 days. (Source: Nikkei).

India reports 38,617 new cases, up from 29,163 the previous day, bringing the total to 8.91 million. The death toll jumped by 474 to 130,993 (Source: Nikkei).

South Australia Premier Steven Marshall announced a six-day lockdown to stamp out an outbreak that has now expanded to 22 new cases, warning that the strain of coronavirus detected was especially worrying.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Does Science Really Demand That Bars And Restaurants Close?

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 16:24

Authored by Micha Gartz via The American Institute for Economic Research,
"It’s Now Up to Governors to Slow the Spread,” says a Wall Street Journal article — written by board members of pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Illumina, Johnson and Johnson and Cigna. It encourages states and governors to band together and implement restrictions “focus[ed] on known sources of spread, such as bars and nightclubs.”



Drs. Gottlieb and McClellan’s plea sounds reasonable. After all, ‘the science’ tells us that Covid spreads in confined spaces. Basing policy advice on ‘the science’ would be the sensible thing to do. These spaces — the restaurants, bars and cafes we enjoy — must be closed for our protection.

But there’s just one small problem: ‘the science’ isn’t really there. In fact, the only evidence we have is circumstantial: all we have are data simulations (in other words, predictions), case studies followed up with contact tracing, and… that’s it.

Given that Covid has become a worldwide attention magnet for 8 months one would expect a lot more substantial evidence than is available.

There was, after all, an overwhelming flood of 4,000 new papers weekly at the start of the pandemic. Wired writer Roxanne Khamsi notes that if the WHO and CDC had cited studies they were using to guide policy, then policy updates would have seemed less arbitrary and capricious. “Hiding the scientific basis for pandemic policies makes it harder for the public to evaluate what’s being done. That means there’s no good way to audit measures that may be poorly crafted or even dangerous.” Khamsi continues,
“[Six] feet apart [guidance] originated in part from a 3-foot rule determined by decades-old studies of card-game players, and that the recommended spacing had been doubled on the basis of research into the spread of the original SARS virus through airplane cabins[…] each child in school should be allotted 44 square feet of space [could be] traced back to a consultant who’d found it in an education magazine, which in turn had bungled what was already a faulty calculation.”
Certainly if you are recommending that an entire industry be slowly strangled to death in the name of public health, you need some science behind you.


Media coverage continues to use ‘science’ to remind us that restaurants, gyms and hotels are a high-Covid risk and are potential superspreader events. Last month articles loved to cite a Stanford computer model which uses cell phone data to simulate Covid spread in 10 major US cities and “map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighborhoods… to points of interest (POIs) such as restaurants and religious establishments.”

While tracking mobile phones Big-Brother style gives an indication of density, the study is heavily limited by data used in 1-hour blocks. Someone can spend 5 minutes in a grocery store to buy milk, and 50 minutes later someone else can also spend 5 minutes in the store to buy bread. Under the model, they are both characterized as in the store for an hour; and suddenly the people in the store during that hour — and the risk to everyone — has gone up by two.

As Jeffrey Tucker wrote, even the CDC has been misappropriated in support of a war on restaurants and bars. This study restricted analysis of their sample of positive cases “to case patients with close contact to anyone with confirmed COVID-19.” Unless Covid was caught in domestic settings, these case patients would perceive themselves as encountering it in a social setting — such as a bar or restaurant — thereby making them more likely to report having visited a bar/coffee shop.

After all, you are more likely to hear (and remember) that a friend has Covid than to have a store clerk or bus conductor advise you that they are Covid positive.

And you’re more likely to forget a grocery store run than meeting a friend for coffee. What’s more, this study forgot to ask people whether they dined inside or outside, making the results meaningless, especially given that the survey was about summertime dining.

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020” is a limited case study which posits that substandard ventilation and seating in the path of the air conditioner caused Covid to spread to 9 other people, 5 of whom were seated at adjacent tables. Of course, unless everyone was accurately tested beforehand and arrived at the restaurant in a personal bubble there’s no way to verify that they caught it in the restaurant, and not on the metro, or between their car and the restaurant’s front door. While the authors note inadequate social distancing, that’s simply part of life in Guangzhou, where population density is 5,100 people per square mile.



Another study comparing Covid transmission during a bus ride to a worship event in Eastern China between two buses found that “those who rode a bus with air recirculation and with a patient with COVID-19 had an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who rode a different bus.” Like the Guangzhou restaurant, these authors acknowledge airborne transmission may only partially explain transmission. All this study shows is that Covid doesn’t suddenly materialize among people who don’t have it, and if you spend hours in a confined space with someone you could get it. Again, it’s China, and 64 people per bus sounds rather cramped.

There was also that superspreading event at a bar in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patient 1 had travelled in Thailand and around Vietnam, before attending a St. Patrick’s Day party where he passed it on to 18 others. According to the researchers, the cases were phylogenetically close, but different from other cases in Ho Chi Minh at the time. However, the US$25 tests would be out of most Vietnamese people’s price range, where the average salary is $148 per month, so describing the cases found in the bar as “different from other cases” in the city is a big assumption.

These flimsy studies relying on contact tracing (and there’s no way to know other customers didn’t catch Covid elsewhere before hand), computer simulations and use of case numbers as a basis to legitimize everything from masking and capacity limits on establishments, to contact tracing, and calls for better ventilation and dehumidification.

Our governors say they are following the science, and therefore these stringency and shutdown measures are required to prevent severe outcomes. None of these studies document severe outcomes — they don’t tell us whether the other customers in the restaurants, bar or buses suffered symptoms, were hospitalised, required intensive care or ended up passing away.

Until we start questioning “the science” or demand that our policymakers stop hiding behind the boastful yet ambiguous label of “science” and adequately identify precisely what evidence they are following, we will be sucked into an endless spiral of cyclical shutdowns. Unless they tell us what science they are following, we cannot go back to check — like a schoolteacher checks students’ spelling — and verify that it is correct, and we cannot hold our elected representatives responsible for the social, economic, education and health fallout of their policies.

For all we know, the science may be deeply flawed. Worse, it may not even exist.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Pfizer In Regular Contact With Biden Campaign, Expects To Seek Vaccine Emergency Approval Friday

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 12:55

Update (1230ET): We've received some updates about the near-term timeline for Pfizer's vaccine. CNN reports that the company expects to submit all of the paperwork needed to apply for the FDA emergency use approval on Friday.

Meanwhile, the AP reported that Pfizer is already in "regular communication" with President-elect Joe Biden's transition team as part of the ongoing efforts to keep all parties up-to-date on the vaccine and its distribution. It's part of a patchwork of "workarounds" that Biden is using as President Trump refuses to cooperate with his former Democratic rival, according to the AP.

* * *
After confirming yesterday that its Phase 3 vaccine trial had finally recorded its last confirmed COVID-19 infection needed before applying for an emergency use approval from the FDA, Pfizer Wednesday morning has just released a summary of its "final" data which - as luck would have it - showed the Pfizer vaccine is actually 95% effective, leaving it on par with Moderna's vaccine.

On the surface, this final number seems to be an improvement on the 90%+ effective preliminary finding released by Pfizer last week. What's more, the new data answered a critical question posed by experts: how effective is the vaccine on older and more vulnerable patients? Pfizer and Biontech said Wednesday that the vaccine's efficacy in people older than 65 was more than 94%.

According to WSJ, now that the final data is in, Pfizer expects to apply for the EUA within days, the company said Wednesday.

Shares were trading almost 4% higher in premarket on the news.


Meanwhile, shares of Pfizer partner BioNTech were up nearly 8% premarket on the news.

Additionally, Pfizer released more details about the trial data, showing that out of 170 adult adult volunteers in the 44k-person study, 162 received a placebo, while 8 had received the vaccine. A review of 8,000 subjects showed that the vaccine appeared to be well-tolerated, though some more serious side effects have been reported, including headaches and fatigue that afflicted some people after the second dose.

Both Moderna and Pfizer are using a revolutionary new technique, a gene-based mRNA technology, for their vaccines, which is one reason they have been developed more quickly than other more traditional rivals. Both shots effectively reprogram human cells to produce antibodies and fend off the virus.


Source: Bloomberg

We must say, it's almost comical how Pfizer's results have moved a whole 5 percentage points since last week (though, to be fair, the company said last week that the number should be "over" 90%).
Moderna next week arguing that their vaccine is actually 120% effective, some people they didn't even give it to are protected. The vaccine group is now hotter and richer than the placebo group, some of the placebo group's wives have left them for the vaccine group participants.
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) November 18, 2020
There's something more than just humor here: it speaks to how imprecise these numbers could be, since the sample sizes being used by the researchers (they only documented 170 confirmed cases in the whole trial so far) is so small.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Danish Study Suggests Masks Do Little To Stop COVID As Iowa Gov Insists There Is "Evidence On Both Sides"

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 11:00

Researchers in Denmark have just published a revolutionary new study which purports to offer more conclusive evidence that wearing masks actually does little to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.



Though it's certainly not the first study to suggest that masks do little to help - and, to be fair, there's plenty of research to suggest the opposite (science can sometimes be confusing) - a monthslong, nationwide study that involved thousands of Danes from a diverse range of backgrounds (in case you were curious) showed that roughly the same percentage of people were infected in the mask group as the no-mask group.

According to the report, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, the "primary outcome" (i.e. infection with COVID-19) occurred in 1.8% of people in the mask group, and 2.1% of people in the control group.
"Observational evidence suggests that mask wearing mitigates SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but whether this observed association arises because masks protect uninfected wearers (protective effect) or because transmission is reduced from infected mask wearers (source control) is uncertain. Here, we report a randomized controlled trial (20) that assessed whether a recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others reduced wearers' risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a setting where public health measures were in effect but community mask wearing was uncommon and not recommended," the researchers began.
Here's a table laying out the data:


While some heralded this latest data as a breakthrough, considering the scope of the study and its inclusion of experimental and control groups, it's worth noting that there's plenty of research being done on this topic, and the results are far more confusing than many in the MSM would have the public believe.
A massive Danish study on mask usage found no statistically significant difference in coronavirus infection rates between mask-wearers and non-mask-wearers. In fact, according to the data, mask usage may actually increase the likelihood of infection. ACP Journals pic.twitter.com/gYDtA8ac0p
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 18, 2020
To wit, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (a Republican) was actually speaking the truth when she said the other day that there is "science on both sides" of the mask debate. Reynolds, however, still went ahead with imposing a new mask mandate in her state, along with other measures, as COVID-19 cases surge across the country, with the Midwest as the hardest-hit region.
"There's science on both sides and you know that," she said, without providing details. "If you look, you can find whatever you want to support wherever you're at."
Most media outlets that reported on those remarks noted that the governor's statement contradicted the official CDC guidelines. But it's worth remembering that at one point or another, the FDA, the CDC the Surgeon General etc have all suggested that masks do little to stop the spread of COVID-19. The CDC admitted that 80% of newly infected wore their masks in accordance with all restrictions.

The CDC released a new study last week purporting to show that masks protected both the wearer and the general public, but as the Danish researchers noted in their summary, the scientific links there actually aren't at all well-established. The researchers even cautioned that their findings are hardly conclusive, and shouldn't be relied upon by policy makers.

But given that the Danish study may represent an important step forward, we're curious to see how social media companies react to these headlines, particularly after yesterday's performance in front of the Senate Judiciary.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Forced Vaccination Law In Denmark Abandoned After Public Protests

Wed, 11/18/2020 - 05:00
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A law in Denmark that would have given authorities the power to forcibly inject people with a coronavirus vaccine has been abandoned after nine days of public protests.



The ‘epidemic law’ would have handed the Danish government the power to enact mandatory quarantine measures against anyone infected with a dangerous disease, but it was the part about vaccinations that caused the biggest uproar.

In Denmark, the national government proposed a new epidemic law which includes the right to conduct forced physical exams, mandate isolation, and allows police-directed physically coerced vaccination.

The people resisted.

The proposal was dropped.

Well done, Denmark. https://t.co/qHxn0QCf6e
— AJ Kay (@AJKayWriter) November 15, 2020
“The Danish Health Authority would be able to define groups of people who must be vaccinated in order to contain and eliminate a dangerous disease,” reports the Local.

“People who refuse the above can – in some situations – be coerced through physical detainment, with police allowed to assist.”

However, after nine straight days of protests against the new law, it has now been scrapped.
DENMARK: 9 days of protests over a new law that "would be able to define groups of people who must be vaccinated. People who refuse the above can be coerced through physical detainment, with police allowed to assist."pic.twitter.com/LN0SBVKUE8
— Robin Monotti Graziadei (@robinmonotti) November 14, 2020
With a coronavirus vaccine within sight, governments across the world are mulling over what punitive measures to bring against those who refuse to take it.

Last week we highlighted how both Ticketmaster and airline companies are considering barring people from entering venues and flying if they cannot prove they have taken the vaccine.

So while public protests may be able to prevent authorities carrying out forced vaccinations, people who refuse to take the shot may find it virtually impossible to enjoy any kind of social life, use public transport, or even find employment.
 
Top