ALERT Look Out Below! China’s Heavy-Lift Rocket Due For Uncontrolled Reentry Within Days

Double_A

TB Fanatic
Look Out Below! China’s Heavy-Lift Rocket Due For Uncontrolled Reentry Within Days

Tom NardiApril 30, 2021 (Hackaday.com)
Look Out Below! China’s Heavy-Lift Rocket Due For Uncontrolled Reentry Within Days <(Link)

On April 28th, China successfully put the core module of their Tianhe space station into orbit with the latest version of the Long March 5B heavy-lift booster. This rocket, designed for launching large objects into low Earth orbit, is unique in that the 33.16 m (108.8 ft) first stage carries the payload all the way to orbit rather than separating at a lower altitude. Unfortunately, despite an international effort to limit unnecessary space debris, the first stage of the Long March 5B booster is now tumbling through space and is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry sometime in the next few days.

The massive booster has been given the COSPAR ID 2021-035-B, and ground tracking stations are currently watching it closely to try and determine when and where it will reenter the Earth’s atmosphere. As of this writing it’s in a relatively low orbit of 169 x 363 km, which should decay rapidly given the object’s large surface area. Due to the variables involved it’s impossible to pinpoint where the booster will reenter this far out, but the concern is that should it happen over a populated area, debris from the 21 metric ton (46,000 pound) booster could hit the ground.

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The Tianhe core module.

This is the second launch for the Long March 5B, the first taking place on May 5th of 2020. That booster was also left in a low orbit, and made an uncontrolled reentry six days later. During a meeting of the NASA Advisory Council’s Regulatory and Policy Committee, Administrator Jim Bridenstine claimed that had the rocket reentered just 30 minutes prior, debris could have come down over the continental United States. Objects which were suspected of being remnants of the Long March 5B were discovered in Africa, though no injuries were reported.

China’s first space station, Tiangong-1, made an uncontrolled reentry of its own back in 2018. It’s believed that most of the 8,500 kg (18,700 lb) burned up as it streaked through the atmosphere, and anything that was left fell harmlessly into the South Pacific Ocean. While small satellites are increasingly designed to safely disintegrate upon reentry, large objects such as these pose a more complex problem as we expand our presence in low Earth orbit.

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The Snack Artist

Membership Revoked
The way you limit space debris is to let it make reentry, just like they're doing.
It'd be nice if their stuff fell back to earth in a controlled fashion. Skylab anyone? That was a near disaster caused by us but I don't remember anything more. I think it shows the jynese don't care where they eat and take a dump. The wuflu was caused in large part by the open sewer concept of their highrises. The toilet was an elevator shaft at the end of the hallway. Bring an umbrella. They apply this logic to everything involved in the environment as well as human beings. They just don't care.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
It'd be nice if their stuff fell back to earth in a controlled fashion. Skylab anyone? That was a near disaster caused by us but I don't remember anything more. I think it shows the jynese don't care where they eat and take a dump. The wuflu was caused in large part by the open sewer concept of their highrises. The toilet was an elevator shaft at the end of the hallway. Bring an umbrella. They apply this logic to everything involved in the environment as well as human beings. They just don't care.

They are Borg. I mean they might try to be human, but they lack the, uh, conscience level required, I think. Like some others we know.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Well....Yes and No

YES you let smaller chunks deorbit.
NO you don't do it in massive chunks 108ft long and weighing 46,000 lbs, which is what the Chinese are doing.

They could bring it back more gracefully. But they're sure limiting space debris, which is what the OP was complaining about.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
They remind me more of a colony of insects. Parasites to be exact.

I was going to say they're like the Ferengi, from Star Trek fame.

If their booster is one gigantic stage; then their idiots for designers should have placed manouvering jets or a retrorocket capability on the thing. That is one mighty large piece of rocket to hit your house; large assemblies invariably come through reentry with a good portion of the rocket intact. If they could just slow it down so it makes a reentry into the ocean wouldn't be hard; and the weight associated with a reentry package on it would be negligible.
Instead, they're gonna let it fall where it may and damn the consequences. Irresponsibility on a planet wide scale; that thing could land anywhere.

When the Soviets lost control of Cosmos 954 back in the late 70's, at least they had the manners to tell the Canadians to duck. The Chinese aren't even doing that!
 

LYKURGOS

No Surrender, No Defeat!
Any tracking info out there yet for re-entry? I may want to take a road trip to pick up genuine China space crap. Sell on eBay and get stinking filthy rich. I can get all the terrestrial China junk I want at wal-mart. This would be really special stuff!
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
There is no way NO ONE knows. They know, but don't want to say.

Granted there is a 75% chance of it hitting water, if they are unwilling to say anything tells me they are expecting a landing some where in the remaining 25%.

IF it lands on land, then we are looking at a strong chance of it hitting a city of some size.

This may not end well for the Chinese. Look at how well they are preparing..... are they getting on a better war footing.?
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
There is no way NO ONE knows. They know, but don't want to say.

Granted there is a 75% chance of it hitting water, if they are unwilling to say anything tells me they are expecting a landing some where in the remaining 25%.

IF it lands on land, then we are looking at a strong chance of it hitting a city of some size.

This may not end well for the Chinese. Look at how well they are preparing..... are they getting on a better war footing.?

NORAD seems to have some weird policy where they do not typically make predictions or offer any real time guidance when objects enter the earth's atmosphere.

I would presume they have ground and space based technology specifically for that purpose.

Is NORAD keeping their capabilities clandestine or are their capabilities overstated?

Geez, they can track Santa Claus, right?
 
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Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
NORAD seems to have some weird policy where they do not typically make predictions or offer any real time guidance when objects enter the earth's atmosphere.

I would presume they have ground and space based technology specifically for that purpose.

Is NORAD keeping their capabilities clandestine or our their capabilities overstated?

Geez, they can track Santa Claus, right?

Santa runs IFF. Chinese rockets, not so much.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
What's the plane of the orbit? There must be a known min/max latitude where it can hit.
 

jward

passin' thru
Tumbling Chinese Rocket Expected to Re-Enter Atmosphere May 8
By
Travis J Tritten

May 5, 2021, 4:02 PM CDT

  • Long March 5B rocket carried Chinese space station to orbit
  • Pentagon Secretary Austin being briefed regularly on rocket

People watch a Long March 5B rocket, carrying China’s Tianhe space station core module, as it lifts off from the Wenchang Space Launch Center in southern China’s Hainan province on April 29.

People watch a Long March 5B rocket, carrying China’s Tianhe space station core module, as it lifts off from the Wenchang Space Launch Center in southern China’s Hainan province on April 29. Source: AFP/Getty Images
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The Pentagon said it expects a tumbling Chinese rocket to fall out of orbit and re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere on Saturday, though officials say it’s too early to predict where any debris will land.


Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is being briefed regularly about the trajectory of the Long March 5B rocket core, which successfully put a portion of China’s first space station into orbit last month, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday. Yet while the rocket is being monitored by U.S. Space Command, Kirby said there’s little the military can do about it at this point.



“We don’t have enough fidelity of information right now about re-entry and what that is going to look like to speak to specific actions one way or another,” Kirby said. “We’re just too far out right now to begin to speculate about what possibly could be in the offing here.”



The military’s 18th Space Control Squadron started posting daily updates on the rocket’s location on www.space-track.org this week.


Unlike most first-stage launch vehicles, which typically send their payloads into orbit and immediately fall back to Earth in a pre-planned area, the Chinese rocket carrying the space station module also went into orbit and some analysts think it is now tumbling.

Why Low-Earth Orbit Satellites Are the New Space Race: QuickTake
The problem of space debris has been escalating as nations and private companies accelerate the deployment of miniature and low-Earth satellites. In most cases, satellites and space debris that re-enter the atmosphere tend to burn up before striking Earth or are directed so they crash in the ocean, far from land.
But not always.

America’s first space station, Space Lab, re-entered the atmosphere in July 1979, with some pieces falling into Western Australia. No one was hurt.
China drew criticism from then-NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine last year when debris from another Long March 5B rocket re-entered the atmosphere. Citing local reports, SpaceNews said at the time that pieces of debris as long as 12 meters (39 feet) landed in Cote d’Ivoire.

Asked about the Long March’s re-entry on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. wants to work with other space-faring nations to promote “responsible space behaviors.”
“It’s in the shared interests of all nations to act responsibly in space, to ensure the safety, stability, security and long term sustainability of outer space activities,” Psaki said. “We’re going to work with our international partners on that, and certainly addressing this is -- is something we’ll do through those channels.”
— With assistance by Justin Sink

 
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