ECON Inside America’s Broken Supply Chain How industry failures to collaborate and share information left the system vulnerable
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marsh
On TB every waking moment
(Canada)
Freedom Convoy greeted by 2,000 supporters as trucks roll into Edmonton 8:54 min
Freedom Convoy greeted by 2,000 supporters as trucks roll into Edmonton
Rebel News Published January 24, 2022
Despite the rain, snow and cold weather, supporters remained enthusiastic, with many people giving away hot food, treats and personalized notes of encouragement for the truckers.
FULL REPORT from Sheila Gunn Reid
Freedom Convoy greeted by 2,000 supporters as trucks roll into Edmonton 8:54 min
Freedom Convoy greeted by 2,000 supporters as trucks roll into Edmonton
Rebel News Published January 24, 2022
Despite the rain, snow and cold weather, supporters remained enthusiastic, with many people giving away hot food, treats and personalized notes of encouragement for the truckers.
FULL REPORT from Sheila Gunn Reid
parsonswife
Veteran Member
I found the info. Bill Gates made huge investment in Canadian National Railway. He is their largest shareholder.
Gates Owns $2 Billion Worth of Canadian National Railway
CN Rail or the Canadian National Railway celebrates its 100th anniversary this year. As one of North America’s leading railroad companies, it comes as little surprise Gates owns such a large stake. The company had a market cap of $85.7 billion Friday morning and currently pays a 1.81% quarterly dividend. After 100 years and approximately 20,000 route miles of track connecting three coasts, the company isn’t going anywhere.
Bill Gates Owns Canadian National Railway
Bill Gates owns a sizeable position in Canadian National Railway among other top quality dividend paying stocks. Learn about his portfolio allocation...
www.pinnacledigest.com
marsh
On TB every waking moment
(Canada)
www.zerohedge.com
Truckers Head To Ottawa In 'Freedom Rally' Against Vaccine Mandate
MONDAY, JAN 24, 2022 - 06:50 PM
The cross-border vaccine mandates for truckers in/out of Canada have caused a stir among the trucking community. By Sunday, truckers from around the country embarked in several convoys headed to Ottawa, Canada's capital, to protest a federal vaccine mandate, according to CBC News.
Called the "Freedom Rally" against the federal mandate for cross-border truckers, Canadian truck drivers are furious with the Jan. 15 order to force unvaxxed drivers into two-week quarantine and COVID-19 testing before crossing into Canada.
'
At least 26,000 out of the 160,000 (16.3%) drivers who make frequent trips, hauling goods across the Canada-US will be sidelined. The convoy began one day after the US required truck drivers at border crossings with Canada to be fully vaccinated.
A GoFundMe has been set up to help drivers participating in the rally cover expenses like fuel and food. By Monday, over 40,500 people donated to the cause, raising more than CAD 3 million.
Organizers of the rally said, "to our fellow Canadians, the time for political over reach is over."
Sidelining truckers on the Canada-US border has been a perfect storm for already stressed supply chains. Some supermarkets are already reporting rising food inflation and shortages of certain products.
Undoubtedly, this will bring more pressure in terms of bottlenecks and the availability of truck drivers to traverse the border as the number of eligible drivers shrinks due to the mandate.
Here are some views from the ground of the convoy rolling down highways to Ottawa.
View: https://youtu.be/zDTM2Ga02oM
2:13 min
View: https://youtu.be/N9P5o6g8SzA
1:53 min
We still don't know how bad the disruption will be. Still, considering a significant amount of fresh fruits and vegetables flow across North American borders, it could be a logistics nightmare if the mandates on both sides of the border aren't repealed.
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Truckers Head To Ottawa In 'Freedom Rally' Against Vaccine Mandate
MONDAY, JAN 24, 2022 - 06:50 PM
The cross-border vaccine mandates for truckers in/out of Canada have caused a stir among the trucking community. By Sunday, truckers from around the country embarked in several convoys headed to Ottawa, Canada's capital, to protest a federal vaccine mandate, according to CBC News.
Called the "Freedom Rally" against the federal mandate for cross-border truckers, Canadian truck drivers are furious with the Jan. 15 order to force unvaxxed drivers into two-week quarantine and COVID-19 testing before crossing into Canada.
'At least 26,000 out of the 160,000 (16.3%) drivers who make frequent trips, hauling goods across the Canada-US will be sidelined. The convoy began one day after the US required truck drivers at border crossings with Canada to be fully vaccinated.
A GoFundMe has been set up to help drivers participating in the rally cover expenses like fuel and food. By Monday, over 40,500 people donated to the cause, raising more than CAD 3 million.
Organizers of the rally said, "to our fellow Canadians, the time for political over reach is over."
The goal of the convoy is to arrive in Ottawa later this week and create a large enough presence to demand lawmakers to put an end to the mandate.
Sidelining truckers on the Canada-US border has been a perfect storm for already stressed supply chains. Some supermarkets are already reporting rising food inflation and shortages of certain products.
Undoubtedly, this will bring more pressure in terms of bottlenecks and the availability of truck drivers to traverse the border as the number of eligible drivers shrinks due to the mandate.
Here are some views from the ground of the convoy rolling down highways to Ottawa.
2:13 min
1:53 min
We still don't know how bad the disruption will be. Still, considering a significant amount of fresh fruits and vegetables flow across North American borders, it could be a logistics nightmare if the mandates on both sides of the border aren't repealed.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
WORLD WATCHES AS TRUDEAU THREATENS TRUCKERS - LABELS CONVOY AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATION 18:24 min
WORLD WATCHES AS TRUDEAU THREATENS TRUCKERS - LABELS CONVOY AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATION
WORLD WATCHES AS TRUDEAU THREATENS TRUCKERS - LABELS CONVOY AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATION
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
There is a multimillion dollar fund to support these truckers. The canadians in general are positively pissed with Trudeau. Too many though do not connect this with bare shelves. Same as it is here, too many sheep.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
(language)
citizenfreepress.com
Tony Soprano explains the Trucker Boycott…
Posted by Kane on January 25, 2022 11:31 am
r/t not given
Tony Soprano explains the Trucker Boycott…
@matthew.giuffrida Who wants strawberries? #montreal #toronto #canadatiktok #canadian #montrealtiktok #vancouver #alberta #manitoba #ontario #quebec #tonysoprano ♬ original sound – Matthew…
citizenfreepress.com
Tony Soprano explains the Trucker Boycott…
Posted by Kane on January 25, 2022 11:31 am
r/t not given
marsh
On TB every waking moment
(Canada)
citizenfreepress.com
Conservative leader refuses to support Canadian Trucker Convoy…
Posted by Kane on January 25, 2022 1:55 pm
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1485699095872290817
2:06 min
For 21 months Unvaccinated truckers posed no threat to society.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1485730354312843265
.29 min
Original story with 280+ comments…
[COMMENT: Mandates causing shortages in goods and services, immigration bringing in more competition for jobs and a drain on local services, impending war, potential stock market crashes, etc. Seems like our governments are intentionally trying to make more crisis for people. Is this to cover a crash in the currency? Create dependency on government? foment rebellion?]
Conservative leader refuses to support Canadian Trucker Convoy…
For 21 months Unvaccinated truckers posed no threat to society. The premier in Alberta admits there is a crisis… Saskatchewan politici…
citizenfreepress.com
Conservative leader refuses to support Canadian Trucker Convoy…
Posted by Kane on January 25, 2022 1:55 pm
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1485699095872290817
2:06 min
For 21 months Unvaccinated truckers posed no threat to society.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1485730354312843265
.29 min
Original story with 280+ comments…
[COMMENT: Mandates causing shortages in goods and services, immigration bringing in more competition for jobs and a drain on local services, impending war, potential stock market crashes, etc. Seems like our governments are intentionally trying to make more crisis for people. Is this to cover a crash in the currency? Create dependency on government? foment rebellion?]
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
This is a peaceful revolution in the making. This should scare the ever loving crap out of leadership. Plus if those trucks get parked, They can be disabled so badly that there will be no way to remove them in any timely fashion. This game will get ugly quickly.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
(Canada)
'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta 10:46 min
'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta
Rebel News Published January 25, 2022
See more of our reports from the convoy
Mocha Bezirgan is embedded with the Truckers For Freedom convoy as its heading towards Ottawa. As the convoy rolled through Alberta, a massive amount of supporters turned out to greet the group as it continues onward to Ottawa.
FULL REPORT from Mocha Bezirgan: 'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta
^^^^^^^^
Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting? 9:51 min
Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting?
Rebel News Published January 25, 2022
https://www.RebelNews.com/Livestreams | Never miss a livestream!
On a recent Rebel News DAILY Livestream, Sheila Gunn Reid and Alexa Lavoie discussed the convoy of Canadian truckers that is now on its way across the country to hold a massive protest in Canada's capital.
FULL REPORT: Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting?
'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta 10:46 min
'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta
Rebel News Published January 25, 2022
See more of our reports from the convoy
Mocha Bezirgan is embedded with the Truckers For Freedom convoy as its heading towards Ottawa. As the convoy rolled through Alberta, a massive amount of supporters turned out to greet the group as it continues onward to Ottawa.
FULL REPORT from Mocha Bezirgan: 'We got the world behind us': Massive support for truckers travelling through Alberta
^^^^^^^^
Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting? 9:51 min
Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting?
Rebel News Published January 25, 2022
https://www.RebelNews.com/Livestreams | Never miss a livestream!
On a recent Rebel News DAILY Livestream, Sheila Gunn Reid and Alexa Lavoie discussed the convoy of Canadian truckers that is now on its way across the country to hold a massive protest in Canada's capital.
FULL REPORT: Rebel LIVE: What exactly are the Freedom Convoy truckers protesting?
Last edited:
marsh
On TB every waking moment
(Canada)
Freedom convoy of truckers opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandate rolls through Alberta 1:51 min
Freedom convoy of truckers opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandate rolls through Alberta
Latest news Published January 25, 2022
Freedom convoy of truckers opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandate rolls through Alberta 1:51 min
Freedom convoy of truckers opposing COVID-19 vaccine mandate rolls through Alberta
Latest news Published January 25, 2022
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Inflation Is Eating Away at the Heart of America’s Small Businesses › American Greatness
Of the four restaurants Rick McQuaide owns across several counties in Western Pennsylvania, one is barely making a profit, two are losing money and the fourth has been "temporarily"
amgreatness.com
Inflation Is Eating Away at the Heart of America’s Small Businesses
Rick McQuaide's restaurants in Western Pennsylvania are famous for their crab cakes, but he had to stop selling them because they became so cost-prohibitive to his customers. He isn’t alone.
By Salena Zito
January 24, 2022
Of the four restaurants Rick McQuaide owns across several counties in Western Pennsylvania, one is barely making a profit, two are losing money and the fourth has been “temporarily” closed for far longer than he ever anticipated.
The 58-year-old small businessman from nearby Cambria County has one word for why he finds himself in this position—and it isn’t the pandemic.
“It is inflation,” he said flatly.
McQuaide—whose family has also been in the trucking and logistics industry for 70 years—said what frustrates him is the reaction coming from the White House and much of the national media on the severity of the problem.
“They seemingly shrug it off—maybe that happens because they’ve never owned a small business or maybe because they have jobs where they can absorb the costs with less pain,” he said.
“They are wildly out of touch with the struggles of the average American and small businessperson,” McQuaide adds. “That isn’t political, that is reality.”
He pointed to Biden downplaying the Labor Department report released Wednesday that showed inflation rose at the fastest pace in four decades in December (7 percentage points) as an example of how disconnected he is from the people he serves. Biden said “we are making progress” and claimed there was a reduction in inflation in the past month.
McQuaide isn’t seeing it. He said there isn’t an aspect of his business that has not been upended by inflation. Fewer people are applying for jobs, driving up wages. Then there are the prices of food and fuel.
“Everything has gone up and everything has gone up extraordinarily,” he said.
That is, of course, if you can get the things you need.
“The supply chain that delivers to us, our primary vendors, like US Foods or Sysco, are running out of things because they have a shortage of labor to deliver the food, and the manufacturers that produce the food also have a shortage of labor,” he explained.
McQuaide’s restaurants in Johnstown, Murrysville, and Ligonier are famous for their crab cakes, but he had to stop selling them because they became so cost-prohibitive to his customers.
“A case of premium jumbo lump crab normally cost us $100 a case; over the past few months that cost has spiked to $600 for that same case.”
It’s not the only item he has had to take off the menu.
“We’ve had to change menu items to lower-cost things or things that we can get readily available,” McQuaide said. “And we just don’t have the same variety that we used to.”
He says the cost of inflation “is not just killing our industry, it is hurting families as well.” McQuaide thinks it would help if Biden and other politicians got out of Washington and saw what’s happening to small-town Main Street.
“If they saw it from my perspective, if they spent a week in my shoes, or in consumers’ shoes, that might persuade them to address these issues with empathy and experience rather than dismiss the urgency of the crisis,” McQuaide said, “a crisis I don’t see ending anytime soon.”
colonel holman
Veteran Member
Gotta kill off small business as they are the $$ source for funding the GOP.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Thread by @TheLastRefuge2 on Thread Reader App
@TheLastRefuge2: (1) Remember me asking why the Port of Los Angeles was not updating their December CARGO results? Remember me asking about why this unusual delay? (2) The BEA released their fourth quarter GDP data ...…
threadreaderapp.com
TheLastRefuge
(1) Remember me asking why the Port of Los Angeles was not updating their December CARGO results?
Remember me asking about why this unusual delay?
(2) The BEA released their fourth quarter GDP data today.
bea.gov/news/2022/gros…
(3) A few hours later, again today, the Port of Los Angeles finally released their December totals.
portoflosangeles.org/business/stati…
(4) You know why that matters?
Because imports are deductions to the GDP equation.
By holding back the Dec port data, the import number to the BEA equation couldn't be deducted. The GDP data is manipulated (inflated) by not deducting the value of the December imports.
(5) Wasn't there a recent visit to the port of LA by someone attached to the White House?
Someone with a vested interest in manipulating the economic data to fit a fraudulent effort they began in October???
(6) Whoops, @RonaldKlain @WHCOS ,
LOL, yeah some of us are really good at staying focused on your trickery.
(7) The actual reason we were tracking this was to see if the ports really were increasing productivity as an outcome of the White House supply chain initiative.
...Or if this was all B.S.
Here's the October reminder.
FACT SHEET: Biden Administration Efforts to Address Bottlenecks at Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Moving Goods from Ship to Shelf | The White HousePresident Biden knew that there would be massive economic challenges emerging from the pandemic. The Biden Administration acted quickly to get the economyFACT SHEET: Biden Administration Efforts to Address Bottlenecks at Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Moving Goods from Ship to Shelf | The White House
(8) Here's the actual results. You can see for yourself this "Progress at Our Ports: Moving Cargo and Filling Shelves” was all B.S.
Actual port productivity DROPPED.
portoflosangeles.org/business/stati…
(9) Instead, what they did was move the ships further offshore to hide what they were doing. To give the illusion of less congestion and increased effort.
They never put the ports on 24/7 operations. It was all a lie.
Ships bound for L.A. and Long Beach ports will wait farther offshore to ease air qualityVessels bound for the U.S.’s largest port complex in Southern California will now have to wait for an available berth almost seven times farther away than currently allowed in a bid to improve air qua…Ships bound for L.A. and Long Beach ports will wait farther offshore to ease air quality
(10) Here's the results from the Port of Long Beach.
polb.com/business/port-…
(11) It was all a ruse.
sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2022/01/10/por…
(12) So, now what we have is a situation where not only did the Biden administration manipulate a false impression of a port supply chain improvement.
They also leveraged the import reporting delay to inflate U.S. economic statistics.
(13) MSM will hide these empirical and demonstrable truths, but at least We The People know them.
/END
• • •
OBSERVATION: Pete Buttigieg was selected in 2019 as a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader. "[T] the WEF has been running, since 1993, a program called “Global Leaders for Tomorrow”, rebranded, in 2004, as “Young Global Leaders”. This program aims at identifying, selecting and promoting future global leaders in both business and politics. Indeed, quite a few “Young Global Leaders” have later managed to become Presidents, Prime Ministers, or CEOs."
The WEF and the Pandemic
How is the Davos World Economic Forum involved in the coronavirus pandemic?
swprs.org
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Biden-Buttigieg DOT to tap infrastructure spending to promote speed cameras nationwide
DOT received $6 billion to issue grants to "help cities and towns" with road safety as part of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that Congress passed.
justthenews.com
Biden-Buttigieg DOT to tap infrastructure spending to promote speed cameras nationwide
DOT received $6 billion to issue grants to "help cities and towns" with road safety as part of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that Congress passed.
By Nicholas Ballasy
Updated: January 29, 2022 - 10:51pm
The U.S. Department of Transportation's "National Roadway Safety Strategy" includes promoting the use of speed cameras in cities and towns as a "proven safety countermeasure."
DOT received $6 billion to issue grants to "help cities and towns" with road safety, which was part of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that Congress passed.
"That law creates a new Safe Streets and Roads for All program, providing $6 billion to help cities and towns deliver new, comprehensive safety strategies, as well as accelerate existing, successful safety initiatives," said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg during a speech on Thursday about the launch of DOT's National Roadway Safety Strategy.
"It will protect not only drivers but all road users, including people who walk, bike, or use a wheelchair," he added. "Pedestrian fatalities, as the Second Gentleman [Doug Emhoff] mentioned, have been increasing significantly faster than overall roadway fatalities, and we need to address the safety of those outside as well as inside the vehicle."
Buttigieg also said the strategy "represents a comprehensive plan to significantly reduce injuries and deaths on America's roadways."
Under the plan, one of DOT's "key departmental actions to enable safer speeds" includes providing "noteworthy practices for re-engineering roads to slow down vehicles rather than relying primarily on enforcement to manage speeding" as well as a goal to "promote speed safety cameras as a proven safety countermeasure."
Just the News asked DOT if cities and towns receiving grants will be able to use them to install more speed cameras and/or bike lanes.
"The U.S. Department of Transportation is in the process of determining funding eligibility for these grants, which will be outlined in an upcoming Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO)," a spokesperson said. Additional information about eligible projects will be included in the NOFO."
[COMMENT: Ole Petey wants spy cameras for the Great Reset Chinese social credit score system more than sound bridges people can drive over. He also wants bicycle lanes to implement Green "SMART Growth" modes of transportation.]
marsh
On TB every waking moment
The speed camera nightmare that's coming to America
US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's plan to 'promote speed safety cameras' is raising the troubling specter of ubiquitous automated traffic enforcement in the style of the UK.
The speed camera nightmare that's coming to America: How the UK's hated war on motorists - costing drivers $56M in fines every year - provides a chilling glimpse of what's in store under Pete Buttigieg's plan
- Buttigieg on Thursday revealed plans to 'promote' speed cameras across the US
- The plan is part of a safety package backed by $14 billion in new funding
- In the UK, speed cameras have been ubiquitous for decades and are despised
- In the US they are a matter of debate, and banned by law in at least seven states
- US critics from both the right and the left are opposed to speed cameras
- Conservatives view them as overreach and liberals oppose fines funding police
- In the UK omnipresent speed cameras are matter of fury and controversy
PUBLISHED: 16:38 EST, 29 January 2022 | UPDATED: 01:26 EST, 30 January 2022
US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's plan to 'promote speed safety cameras' is raising the troubling specter of ubiquitous automated traffic enforcement in the style of the UK, where the cameras are widely despised.
Buttigieg's 42-page road safety plan that was unveiled on Thursday and is backed by $14 billion in funding from the new infrastructure bill contained only brief mention of the speed camera plan, but it was enough to set alarm bells ringing for worried motorists.
Fox News host Tucker Carlson slammed the plan as a misuse of the funds in the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Bill, fuming that 'you're about to get a lot more speeding tickets from robots.'
'When the country applauded $1.2 trillion going to fixing the roads, bridges and buildings, a lot of us were dumb enough to think that's what might actually happen,' he said.
Nonpartisan motorist advocate groups are also against the plan. The National Motorists Association has a top 10 list of why speed cameras are bad, arguing 'they can actually make our roads less safe.'
Speed cameras have also drawn sharp criticism from some on the left, who are angry that the fines are often directed to fund police departments, making the issue rare grounds for bipartisan agreement.
Currently, eight US states have laws specifically prohibiting speed cameras.
Only 18 states plus D.C. have speed cameras in use by law, with the other states having no law on the books authorizing their use.
Currently, eight US states have laws specifically prohibiting speed cameras. Only 18 states plus DC have speed cameras in use by law, with the other states having no law on the books
US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's plan to 'promote speed safety cameras' is raising the troubling specter of ubiquitous automated traffic enforcement
Some Democrats did praise the overall plan, including Texas State Representative Celia Israel, who is also a candidate for mayor of Austin.
Israel wrote: 'Thank you @SecretaryPete for making transportation safety a priority at the federal level. In the #txlege, I've heard testimony from families whose lives have forever been changed by these crashes. Its heartbreaking and the loss of life is irreplaceable.'
In New Jersey, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla also praised the plan, which gave credit to his own city: 'Incredible recognition for Hoboken today by @PeteButtigieg, highlighting our Vision Zero efforts. Hoboken will continue to serve as a national model by prioritizing pedestrian safety & implementing safety improvements that protect our vulnerable residents.'
Neither, however, specifically addressed the speed cameras, which are illegal in both of their states.
Buttigieg's strategy recommends pilot programs to study and promote greater use of speed cameras
Buttigieg's strategy recommends pilot programs to study and promote greater use of speed cameras, which he says could provide more 'equitable' enforcement than police traffic stops, as the cameras will have no awareness of the race of the driver.
Spurring the plan is a sharp increase in traffic fatalities in the past few years.
Buttigieg said new federal data being released next week will show another increase in traffic fatalities through the third quarter of 2021.
Those numbers are expected to point to a sizable increase in deaths compared with the same period in 2020, adding to a half-year traffic death total of 20,160 that already was the highest half-year figure since 2006.
'It doesn't look good, and I continue to be extremely concerned about the trend,' Buttigieg told the AP in an interview.
In the UK, speed cameras have been a way of life over the last 30 years and are widely despised, offering a grim warning to Americans of what the future may hold.
The first cameras were installed on the M40 motorway in West London in 1991.
The cameras used rolls of film that had to be developed and processed and so there was a limit to the number of motorists they were able to catch.
GoCompare estimates that more than £86million will be issued in fines between 2022 and 2025 in the UK
Britain's 'busiest speed camera' was WRONG for three years
A speed camera in the UK has been described as 'Britain's busiest speed camera' after it has been learned that police failed to set it up properly, causing it to incorrectly record people speeding.
Industry experts say 'camera calibration issues' from the way the device was installed is the most likely explanation for the false readings that were recorded by the camera in the south coast port city of Southampton.
Police have admitted that the camera in Maybray Way wrongly clocked drivers going up to 50mph when in fact they were traveling well below the 30mph limit.
The minimum fine for exceeding the 30mph limit in that area is $135 and it is understood the camera will have brought in more than $6.85m in revenue from drivers over a three year period
It means that hundreds of drivers may have faced punishment unnecessarily.
The 30mph Gasto speed camera in Maybray King Way, Southampton, caught 51,049 motorists over two years
One industry insider suggested that they believed the faulty Southampton speed camera's 'depth of perception' could be broken and that 'failsafe' markings on the road that are normally used to measure a driver's speed were 'clearly not working as they should'.
The one causing most chaos with faulty readings and repeated flashes is the Gatsometer T24 model. Other Gatso and SpeedCurb models have also been found to be wrongly flashing motorists.
The 30mph Gasto speed camera in Maybray King Way, Southampton, caught 51,049 motorists driving over the limit between 2015 and 2017, triggering it more than 320 times a week at its peak.
The minimum fine for exceeding the 30mph limit in that area is $135 and it is understood the camera will have brought in more than $6.8m in fines from drivers over a three year period.
Hampshire Police has now admitted the speed-busting camera has been recording 'incorrect readings' for vehicles with a 'high flat rear' - meaning any number of drivers could now be owed refunds.
The force even apologized after mistakenly sending fines out to two motorists who were able to prove they were clearly under the speed limit when caught by the Gasto camera on Maybray King Way.
The speed camera, which sits on Maybray King Way, where motorists should be driving at 30mph, is estimated to have brought in more than $6.85million in fines between 2015 and 2017
Part 1 of 2
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2
Now, however, there are over 7,000 cameras all over the country - the fourth highest number in the world behind Russia, Italy and Brazil – which are operated 24/7 with images uploaded directly to a central control room.
Figures show that between 2016 and 2019, 1,053,239 motorists were caught speeding, raking in more than £100million.
According to insurance company GoCompare, Avon and Somerset, Kent and Cheshire are the counties hardest hit by speeding fines in Britain. The insurer estimates that more than £86million will be issued in fines between 2022 and 2025.
Money from such fines goes to the Government's Fund of the Exchequer, and the Chancellor Rishi Sunak decides where the money goes in his annual budget statement.
In the UK, police forces do not benefit financially from speeding fines although they do recover costs from speed awareness courses, offered to motorists as an alternative to penalty points in minor offences.
There are four types of camera in the UK, which may now be on their way Stateside.
The most common, the Gatso - short for Gatsometer, the name of the Dutch manufacturer - is a rear-facing, pole-mounted camera which faces up the road so it can take a picture of the rear of the speeding vehicle and so catch motorcyclists as well as cars, vans and trucks.
Truvelo cameras – named after the South African company which makes them - look similar to a Gatso but are forward-facing and use a special filtered flash to get a clear image of a vehicle registration plate without dazzling the driver.
HADECS 3- or Highways Agency Digital Enforcement Camera System 3 - is a rear-facing camera used on smart motorways across Britain while the SPECS camera system measures vehicle speed over a far greater distance and measures a motorist's average speed.
Specs cameras are used primarily during roadworks on motorways where a lower speed limit than usual needs to be enforced.
Critics, however, say speed cameras have been nothing more than an additional 'tax' on drivers over the last three-decades.
Claire Armstrong, co-founder of anti-speed camera pressure group Safe Speed, said: 'We have been calling for the removal of all automated speed cameras.
'They are not intelligent, they are not proper, they are not proportionate and there is no place for them in road safety policy.
'Speed cameras have been a flawed concept from the very beginning and they don't catch the drivers that the police need to and stop them – we need to have well trained police officers back on the road.
'They have done nothing for road safety, but are catching hundreds of thousands of drivers of which the majority are otherwise driving safely.'
Safe Speed point to examples like the camera on the A22 Eastbourne Road near Lewes in Sussex, on England's southern coast, which caught 8,430 speeding motorists between 2013 and 2014 and made an eye-watering £2.3 million in fines in just one year alone.
Perhaps Britain's 'busiest speed camera', however, lies 120 miles to the west in the port city of Southampton.
The speed camera, which sits on Maybray King Way, where motorists should be driving at 30mph, is estimated to have brought in more than $6.85million in fines between 2015 and 2017.
In those two years, 51,049 drivers were caught traveling over the speed limit and fined an average of $130 each.
However, Hampshire Police revealed last year that the camera has been recording 'incorrect readings' for vehicles with a 'high flat rear' and at least two drivers have been able to prove they were wrongly caught by the camera so far.
One was NHS IT worker Nathan Thompson, who fought against the fine after a letter said he could be prosecuted for driving at twice his actual speed.
Mr Thompson, a father of two, said: 'If I was in a hire car or a work car and from outside the area and I didn't have proof of going 25mph I'd have had to pay it, so I wonder how many other people have been in a similar situation with that camera, as it's the most profitable in the country.
'If I didn't have the evidence that I was going 25mph, then it would have ended up with me going to court. I'd have lost my job. That technology shouldn't go wrong. It has the potential to seriously ruin lives.'
Buttigieg said new federal data being released next week will show another increase in traffic fatalities through the third quarter of 2021
Traffic fatalities rose sharply in 2020 as emptier roads led to more speeding
Yellow speed camera by the side of an urban road in Leeds, UK
A sign warning of a speed camera ahead is pictured in Brisbane, Australia
In 2020, a report by the police watchdog, Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services (HMICFRS), found that some speed cameras were being used as a money-making exercise rather than a vital tool to improve road safety.
The report concluded that speed cameras had often been located in areas that were deemed 'good hunting grounds' for speeding drivers rather than because they were accident blackspots.
It found that in 2018 over 2.1m speeding tickets were handed out, a 41 per cent rise from 1.6m in 2011.
Although London already has one of the highest numbers of speed cameras in the world, local authorities have submitted plans tocontrol over 20mph and 30mph zones, arguing a lack of traffic police makes roads dangerous and leaves residents at risk.
The plans have been put forward by London Councils, a body that represents the capital's 32 boroughs.
Setting out the proposals, it said the maximum fine of £130 for council infringements was insufficient and would need to be raised and that extra speed cameras would have to be introduced.
However, Jack Cousens of the AA: 'Residents would rather their council focus on emptying the bins on time. Drivers will draw one conclusion: this proposal is more about the money it would generate, not the balanced enforcement of criminal law.'
Yet those in favour of speed cameras argue that the reduction in accidents and the saving of lives are far more important than any amount of money.
A study conducted at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) found that from 1992 to 2016, speed cameras reduced accidents by between 17 and 39 per cent and fatalities by between 58 to 68 per cent within 500 metres of the cameras.
The report analysed collision outcomes both before and after the cameras were installed across 2,500 sites in England, Scotland and Wales, drawing on information from the Department for Transport and local councils.
Researcher Cheng Keat Tang, from LSE, said: 'The study clearly shows that speed cameras reduce both the number and severity of road accidents. Given the huge number of fatal accidents that take place on our roads every year, the introduction of more cameras could save hundreds of lives annually and make our roads safer for users.'
The LSE report suggested that another 1,000 cameras should be added to British roads to save as many as 190 lives annually and reduce up to 1,130 collisions.
Last year,1,390 people were killed on UK roads, down from 1,516 deaths in 2020 and 1,850 deaths in 2019, due in large part to Covid lockdown measures.
But a spokesman for the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents RoSPA said: 'The evidence for speed cameras shows that they are effective at reducing speeds and preventing accidents, especially in preventing more serious and fatal accidents.
'The UK evidence shows large reductions in deaths and injuries where speed cameras have been deployed. The magnitude and consistency of the results across different countries and types of road provides a high level of confidence that the introduction of speed cameras does reduce accidents at the sites where they are located.
'While more research would strengthen the evidence base, the studies demonstrating their effectiveness are the strongest evidence available and must be used to inform decision making.'
Traffic officer numbers in 34 of the UK's 44 police forces has dwindled by 15 per cent in five years, a recent Freedom of Information request revealed.
Figures obtained by the BBC Panorama programme earlier this month found that the total number of dedicated traffic officers has fallen by 757 from 5,014 in 2016 to 4,257 this year, as authorities instead rely on speed cameras to enforce speed limits despite some cameras not working properly.
Meanwhile the number of deaths on the road has remained stable since 2010, having gone down regularly in the years before that.
Edmund King, President of the Automobile Association (AA), told the programme: 'Cops in cars are essential. We have seen a correlation between plateauing road deaths and the decline in the number of dedicated road traffic officers.
'If some people think they will get away with motoring offences, they will take more chances. We should reverse this decline as traffic police are needed in this national crisis with five people dying on our roads daily. This is not acceptable on any level.'
Interestingly a 2013 study by the RAC (Royal Automobile Club) Foundation highlighted how cameras in some areas had actually caused accidents rather than preventing them.
A total of 21 camera sites had shown data where collision rates had risen 'markedly' since cameras were put in place.
As a result the RAC Foundation wrote warning letters to the seven local authorities; Merseyside, which had nine cameras of concern, Cambridge and Peterborough, where four risky cameras were identified, Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent which had three, Warwickshire, which had two and South Yorkshire, Sussex and Thames Valley, who all had one.
Overall, however, the RAC Foundation report found that on average the number of fatal and serious collisions in their vicinity fell by more than a quarter (27per cent) after the installation of cameras.
Now, however, there are over 7,000 cameras all over the country - the fourth highest number in the world behind Russia, Italy and Brazil – which are operated 24/7 with images uploaded directly to a central control room.
Figures show that between 2016 and 2019, 1,053,239 motorists were caught speeding, raking in more than £100million.
According to insurance company GoCompare, Avon and Somerset, Kent and Cheshire are the counties hardest hit by speeding fines in Britain. The insurer estimates that more than £86million will be issued in fines between 2022 and 2025.
Money from such fines goes to the Government's Fund of the Exchequer, and the Chancellor Rishi Sunak decides where the money goes in his annual budget statement.
In the UK, police forces do not benefit financially from speeding fines although they do recover costs from speed awareness courses, offered to motorists as an alternative to penalty points in minor offences.
There are four types of camera in the UK, which may now be on their way Stateside.
The most common, the Gatso - short for Gatsometer, the name of the Dutch manufacturer - is a rear-facing, pole-mounted camera which faces up the road so it can take a picture of the rear of the speeding vehicle and so catch motorcyclists as well as cars, vans and trucks.
Truvelo cameras – named after the South African company which makes them - look similar to a Gatso but are forward-facing and use a special filtered flash to get a clear image of a vehicle registration plate without dazzling the driver.
HADECS 3- or Highways Agency Digital Enforcement Camera System 3 - is a rear-facing camera used on smart motorways across Britain while the SPECS camera system measures vehicle speed over a far greater distance and measures a motorist's average speed.
Specs cameras are used primarily during roadworks on motorways where a lower speed limit than usual needs to be enforced.
Critics, however, say speed cameras have been nothing more than an additional 'tax' on drivers over the last three-decades.
Claire Armstrong, co-founder of anti-speed camera pressure group Safe Speed, said: 'We have been calling for the removal of all automated speed cameras.
'They are not intelligent, they are not proper, they are not proportionate and there is no place for them in road safety policy.
'Speed cameras have been a flawed concept from the very beginning and they don't catch the drivers that the police need to and stop them – we need to have well trained police officers back on the road.
'They have done nothing for road safety, but are catching hundreds of thousands of drivers of which the majority are otherwise driving safely.'
Safe Speed point to examples like the camera on the A22 Eastbourne Road near Lewes in Sussex, on England's southern coast, which caught 8,430 speeding motorists between 2013 and 2014 and made an eye-watering £2.3 million in fines in just one year alone.
Perhaps Britain's 'busiest speed camera', however, lies 120 miles to the west in the port city of Southampton.
The speed camera, which sits on Maybray King Way, where motorists should be driving at 30mph, is estimated to have brought in more than $6.85million in fines between 2015 and 2017.
In those two years, 51,049 drivers were caught traveling over the speed limit and fined an average of $130 each.
However, Hampshire Police revealed last year that the camera has been recording 'incorrect readings' for vehicles with a 'high flat rear' and at least two drivers have been able to prove they were wrongly caught by the camera so far.
One was NHS IT worker Nathan Thompson, who fought against the fine after a letter said he could be prosecuted for driving at twice his actual speed.
Mr Thompson, a father of two, said: 'If I was in a hire car or a work car and from outside the area and I didn't have proof of going 25mph I'd have had to pay it, so I wonder how many other people have been in a similar situation with that camera, as it's the most profitable in the country.
'If I didn't have the evidence that I was going 25mph, then it would have ended up with me going to court. I'd have lost my job. That technology shouldn't go wrong. It has the potential to seriously ruin lives.'
Buttigieg said new federal data being released next week will show another increase in traffic fatalities through the third quarter of 2021
Traffic fatalities rose sharply in 2020 as emptier roads led to more speeding
Yellow speed camera by the side of an urban road in Leeds, UK
A sign warning of a speed camera ahead is pictured in Brisbane, Australia
In 2020, a report by the police watchdog, Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services (HMICFRS), found that some speed cameras were being used as a money-making exercise rather than a vital tool to improve road safety.
The report concluded that speed cameras had often been located in areas that were deemed 'good hunting grounds' for speeding drivers rather than because they were accident blackspots.
It found that in 2018 over 2.1m speeding tickets were handed out, a 41 per cent rise from 1.6m in 2011.
Although London already has one of the highest numbers of speed cameras in the world, local authorities have submitted plans tocontrol over 20mph and 30mph zones, arguing a lack of traffic police makes roads dangerous and leaves residents at risk.
The plans have been put forward by London Councils, a body that represents the capital's 32 boroughs.
Setting out the proposals, it said the maximum fine of £130 for council infringements was insufficient and would need to be raised and that extra speed cameras would have to be introduced.
However, Jack Cousens of the AA: 'Residents would rather their council focus on emptying the bins on time. Drivers will draw one conclusion: this proposal is more about the money it would generate, not the balanced enforcement of criminal law.'
Yet those in favour of speed cameras argue that the reduction in accidents and the saving of lives are far more important than any amount of money.
A study conducted at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) found that from 1992 to 2016, speed cameras reduced accidents by between 17 and 39 per cent and fatalities by between 58 to 68 per cent within 500 metres of the cameras.
The report analysed collision outcomes both before and after the cameras were installed across 2,500 sites in England, Scotland and Wales, drawing on information from the Department for Transport and local councils.
Researcher Cheng Keat Tang, from LSE, said: 'The study clearly shows that speed cameras reduce both the number and severity of road accidents. Given the huge number of fatal accidents that take place on our roads every year, the introduction of more cameras could save hundreds of lives annually and make our roads safer for users.'
The LSE report suggested that another 1,000 cameras should be added to British roads to save as many as 190 lives annually and reduce up to 1,130 collisions.
Last year,1,390 people were killed on UK roads, down from 1,516 deaths in 2020 and 1,850 deaths in 2019, due in large part to Covid lockdown measures.
But a spokesman for the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents RoSPA said: 'The evidence for speed cameras shows that they are effective at reducing speeds and preventing accidents, especially in preventing more serious and fatal accidents.
'The UK evidence shows large reductions in deaths and injuries where speed cameras have been deployed. The magnitude and consistency of the results across different countries and types of road provides a high level of confidence that the introduction of speed cameras does reduce accidents at the sites where they are located.
'While more research would strengthen the evidence base, the studies demonstrating their effectiveness are the strongest evidence available and must be used to inform decision making.'
Traffic officer numbers in 34 of the UK's 44 police forces has dwindled by 15 per cent in five years, a recent Freedom of Information request revealed.
Figures obtained by the BBC Panorama programme earlier this month found that the total number of dedicated traffic officers has fallen by 757 from 5,014 in 2016 to 4,257 this year, as authorities instead rely on speed cameras to enforce speed limits despite some cameras not working properly.
Meanwhile the number of deaths on the road has remained stable since 2010, having gone down regularly in the years before that.
Edmund King, President of the Automobile Association (AA), told the programme: 'Cops in cars are essential. We have seen a correlation between plateauing road deaths and the decline in the number of dedicated road traffic officers.
'If some people think they will get away with motoring offences, they will take more chances. We should reverse this decline as traffic police are needed in this national crisis with five people dying on our roads daily. This is not acceptable on any level.'
Interestingly a 2013 study by the RAC (Royal Automobile Club) Foundation highlighted how cameras in some areas had actually caused accidents rather than preventing them.
A total of 21 camera sites had shown data where collision rates had risen 'markedly' since cameras were put in place.
As a result the RAC Foundation wrote warning letters to the seven local authorities; Merseyside, which had nine cameras of concern, Cambridge and Peterborough, where four risky cameras were identified, Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent which had three, Warwickshire, which had two and South Yorkshire, Sussex and Thames Valley, who all had one.
Overall, however, the RAC Foundation report found that on average the number of fatal and serious collisions in their vicinity fell by more than a quarter (27per cent) after the installation of cameras.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We're Being Told
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 - 05:00 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
The information that I am about to share with you is extremely alarming, but I have always endeavored to never sugarcoat things for my readers. Right now, there are shortages of certain items in grocery stores across the United States, and food supplies have gotten very tight all over the globe. I have repeatedly warned that this is just the beginning, but I didn’t realize how dire things have already gotten until I received an email from a farming insider that I have corresponded with over the years. I asked him if I could publicly share some of the information that he was sharing with me, and he said that would be okay as long as I kept his name out of it.
According to this farming insider, dramatically increased costs for fertilizer will make it impossible for many farmers to profitably plant corn this year. The following is an excerpt from an email that he recently sent me…
“Things for 2022 are interesting (and scary). Input costs for things like fertilizer, liquid nitrogen and seeds are like triple and quadruple the old prices. It will not be profitable to plant this year. Let me repeat, the economics will NOT work. Our plan, is to drop about 700 acres of corn off and convert to soybeans (they use less fertilizer, and we also have chicken manure from that operation). Guess what? We are not the only ones with those plans. Already there is a shortage of soybean seeds, so we will see how that will work out. The way I see it, there will be a major grain shortage later in the year, especially with corn. I mean, we are small with that. What about these people in the midwest who have like 10,000 acres of corn? This will not be good.”
Once I received that message, I wrote him back with some questions that I had.
In response, he expanded on his comments in a subsequent email…
Corn for example, typically takes about 600 pounds of fertilizer per acre, plus 50 gallons of liquid nitrogen. Times that by many acres and thats a lot of money.
Soybeans take much less. The plan for us, and most others around here, is to drastically cut corn acres and switch to soybeans. Problem is, there is apparently a soybean seed shortage because others have this plan as well. We were lucky enough to pre buy enough to do it. However, most people, especially younger farmers, or farmers where that is all they do, probably don’t have the money to front like that.
The way I see it, a corn shortage will come. I guess there could possibly be a glut of soybeans, but remember that could depend on the seed being available. I guess there are other alternatives, maybe milo, oats, or barley. Of course the corn market is much larger. Think animal feed and ethanol. I mean for animals, soybeans are used too, but its a mix. What happens to the animal producers who depend on reasonably priced corn? I just don’t see how it can end well. I mean, even if we end up with plenty of soybeans, even a glut, then you have a busted market for that. I don’t know. There just isnt much history to base any of this on. I just see it hurting both grain farmers, and animal farmers, and also translating to more shortages and price increases for consumers who buy the end products.
I was stunned when I first read that.
Corn is one of the foundational pillars of our food supply.
If you go to the grocery store and start reading through the ingredients of various products, you will quickly discover that corn is in just about everything in one form or another.
So what is our country going to look like if a severe corn shortage actually happens?
I don’t even want to think about that.
Of course fertilizer prices are not just going through the roof here in the United States.
In South America, high fertilizer prices are going to dramatically affect coffee production…
If you love to drink coffee in the morning, you will soon be paying much more for that privilege.
Over in Africa, fertilizer prices could result in “30 million metric tons less food produced”…
Fertilizer demand in sub-Saharan Africa could fall 30% in 2022, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a global nonprofit organization. That would translate to 30 million metric tons less food produced, which the center says is equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people.
“Lower fertilizer use will inevitably weigh on food production and quality, affecting food availability, rural incomes and the livelihoods of the poor,” said Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s trade and markets division.
Where in the world are we going to get enough food to replace “the food needs of 100 million people”?
This is beyond serious.
Basically, the stage is being set for the sort of historic global crisis that I have been relentlessly warning about.
Many Americans had assumed that even if the rest of the world was suffering that we would be immune.
But now there are widespread shortages all over the nation, and the Wall Street Journal just published a major article entitled “U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure, From Plants To Store Shelves”.
This is really happening.
In Washington D.C., residents are being instructed to “just buy what you need and leave some for others”…
What would have been unimaginable just a few years ago is now making headlines on a daily basis.
Of course it isn’t just our food supply that is under threat. As Victor Davis Hansen has aptly noted, our country is now in the process of undergoing a “systems collapse”…
A lot of people are going to be caught off guard by the pace of change.
Things are shifting so rapidly that it really is hard to keep up with it all unless you are paying very close attention.
Now that you have been exposed to the information in this article, please don’t go back to sleep.
This is not a drill.
We really are heading into a nightmare scenario, and I strongly urge you to act accordingly.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Ford Shutters 8 Factories Due To "Persistent Supply Chain Disruptions"
SUNDAY, FEB 06, 2022 - 03:30 PM
Ford Motor Co. tumbled into a bear market after a fourth-quarter profit and sales missed Wall Street expectations. Chief Executive Jim Farley warned of "persistent supply-chain disruptions" limiting its ability to meet strong demand.
Reuters reports the Detroit automaker will shutter eight factories in the US, Mexico, and Canada, beginning on Monday as it copes with chip shortages.
On Friday, Ford shares plunged 10% after the automaker reported fourth-quarter profit and sales that fell short of expectations. Shares of the company have already plunged into a bear market. Shares closed under the 100DMA on Friday and may find support on the 200DMA around $16.15 level if downward pressure on the stock is maintained.
Ford's earnings miss "was a combination of lower volumes (chip shortage/supply chain disruption), higher raw material costs, and higher mobility spending," BofA Securities' John Murphy told clients in a note Friday.
Reuters' report paints a challenging 2022 backdrop for the company as it continues having trouble sourcing chips, an ongoing issue for well over a year, and still not yet resolved.
The good news is Ford's turnaround is underway with the launch of electric vehicles. However, it has to reduce the complexity of its supply chain, a transition that won't be easy.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
2022 Could Be "Even Crazier" Than 2021 For Supply Chains
SUNDAY, FEB 06, 2022 - 08:45 AM
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
This is part 1 of an exclusive Fringe Finance interview with shipping analyst (and friend of mine) J Mintzmyer, where we discuss the state of the supply chain in the country, the developments with Canadian truckers, logistics, the effects of Covid and what shipping names he likes for 2022.
J is a renowned maritime shipping analyst and investor who directs the Value Investor's Edge ("VIE") research platform on Seeking Alpha. You can follow him on Twitter @mintzmyer.
J is a frequent speaker at industry conferences, is regularly quoted in trade journals, and hosts a popular podcast featuring shipping industry executives.
J has earned a BS in Economics from the Air Force Academy, an MA in Public Policy from the University of Maryland, and is a PhD Candidate at Harvard University, where he researches global trade flows and security policy.
Q: J, last time we talked was in Fall 2021. How has the supply chain changed since then? Where are the bottlenecks, if any, now?
Despite all the nonsense across the mainstream media about the supply chain "normalizing" or "recovering," by and large we are in a very similar situation as last fall.
This period of time (January-April) is typically the weakest part of the year since we are post-Holidays in the US and Europe and China also slows production around the Lunar New Year, so we would otherwise expect freight rates to crash and congestion to ease. Instead, we are seeing freight rates hold up firm (actually rates are higher than November-levels right now, which is wild!), and throughput numbers out of LA and Long Beach have been very low even as the ship backlog keeps piling up.
If these ports fail to clear the backlog and congestion by June/July, then Fall 2022 could be even crazier than last year, I'm watching this closely.
Both DAC and ZIM, which you pointed out last fall, are up significantly since you first pointed them out. Are you staying with these names?
It's a timely question! I have made life-changing returns from both Danaos Corp (DAC) and Zim Integrated Shipping (ZIM) and I still have long exposure; however, I have trimmed DAC substantially around the $90-$95 mark and I have trimmed a lot of ZIM in the mid/upper-$60s.
My personal 'fair value estimate' is $120 for DAC and $77.50 for ZIM, but I often take profits on rallies. A common mistake I see from traders and investors is an 'all-or-nothing' approach (i.e. "when should I sell it all?"). I prefer to layer in and layer out. During the December slump in ZIM I was loading the wagons. I was also loading the wagons in DAC in very-early January in the low- to mid-$70s.
At this exact time (February 2, 2022), I personally prefer both Atlas Corp (ATCO) and Textainer Group (TGH) as top trades.
Given the recent Canadian trucker rally, inform my readers how crucial trucking is to the supply chain? Is this a trend you can see catching on in the U.S.?
Trucking is absolutely essential to the overall supply chain and especially for our nationwide food supply!
There are some clear political challenges here and the US is already short an estimated 50-100K truck drivers, so we cannot afford to lose any more.
However, so far the protests have been fairly limited in scale (the pictures and video seem large, but we are talking about a fraction of 1% in a niche route), and the US dropped the Federal mandate, which reduced potential friction there.
Vaccines are mandated for border crossing to Canada and Mexico, which is something to watch for sure.
Last time we talked you said peak rates were October 2021. Do you feel the same now?
I was looking at pure seasonality and I expected the average per FEU rate would likely dip to around $5k/FEU by February or March just due to seasonal patterns.
As of February 2nd, the Freightos FBX global average is $9,625/FEU, which compares to $10-$11k in September/October peaks and compares to about $4k last year. These rates are absolutely unprecedented and $9,600 in February is actually far more impressive than $10-$11k last fall when you consider the seasonality.
Again, this is a period of time when rates should be rapidly falling, yet prices are actually up 5-10% from last November/December.
When's your realistic "back to normal" estimate for supply chains, if ever?
It depends how you define "normal." The containership industry went through a period of global oversupply for nearly a decade straight, and particularly bad rates from 2014-2018, so what many people believe is "normal" was actually a bearish aberration. If we take a more 20-30 year normalized freight rate as 'normal,' then that is higher than almost anything we saw in the entire 2010s.
I expect we will eventually head back towards more normalized levels, but it all depends on levels of congestion and levels of total consumer spending. My best guess is that peak rates are behind us in Sept/Oct 2021; however, full year 2022 rates and earnings will likely end up higher than 2021 because the first half of 2022 is shaping up to be way stronger than 1H-20221.
This is merely my educated guess as of February 2nd, and readers should note that I have been wrong for over a year straight in terms of being way too conservative/cautious.
That might seem odd because I'm a huge investor and bull on the sector, but I tend to model my macro expectations on the conservative side. Overall though, I expect strong rates through 2022 and at least parts of 2023. We should be back to 'normalized' rates (i.e. but still higher than 2012-2018 levels) by 2024 due to substantial vessel deliveries and hopefully the world will be past COVID by then!
Part 2 of this interview will be found here.
--
DISCLAIMER:
I have not personally vetted J’s returns — it is up to readers considering his service to do so. I own ZIM and DAC, as I’m sure does J, as disclosed. I’ll likely own ATCO and TGH at some point soon, too. J already does. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
It is only a look into our personal opinions and portfolios. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe.
MORE DISCLAIMER:
These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot. If I am here listing things I got right or things I think will happen in the future, note that there are likely twice as many things I got wrong over the same period of time. I’m not a financial advisor, I hold no licenses or registrations and am not qualified to give advice on anything, let alone finance or medicine. Talk to your doctor, talk to your financial advisor or your therapist. Leave me a alone and do your research elsewhere. If you can find somewhere to rate this Substack one star, please do so as to save future readers from the misery of my often wholly incorrect prognostications.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Shipping Rates Could "Blow Through The Roof" In 2022 If This Happens (Part 2) see disclaimer in part 1
MONDAY, FEB 07, 2022 - 08:40 PM
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
This is part 2 of an exclusive Fringe Finance interview with shipping analyst (and friend of mine) J Mintzmyer, where we discuss the state of the supply chain in the country, the developments with Canadian truckers, logistics, the effects of Covid and what shipping names he likes for 2022. Part 1 of this interview is here.
J is a renowned maritime shipping analyst and investor who directs the Value Investor's Edge ("VIE") research platform on Seeking Alpha. You can follow him on Twitter @mintzmyer. J is a frequent speaker at industry conferences, is regularly quoted in trade journals, and hosts a popular podcast featuring shipping industry executives.
J has earned a BS in Economics from the Air Force Academy, an MA in Public Policy from the University of Maryland, and is a PhD Candidate at Harvard University, where he researches global trade flows and security policy.
Q: J, What do you make of Covid's effect on the shipping sector? Is there any chance that a loosening of restrictions will happen this year, in your opinion? If so, what affect will that have?
COVID-19, or more precisely the global policy response to COVID-19, is a key factor in the entire supply chain mess. Things were already tight in late-2019 and US ports, particularly on the West Coast, have been underinvested for a decade, but the enormous lockdown disruption is what 'broke' the machine.
Probably not the best metaphor, but I sometimes compare this to a snake accustomed to eating a steady diet of hamsters every day and keeping the jungle free of rodents.
Then the hamsters disappear for a few weeks and the snake gets super hungry, eventually finds a warthog and panic eats. While the warthog is stuck digesting in the snake, hundreds of hamsters are piling up, running amok, and the jungle is infested. That's crude, but that's essentially what happened with ports operating at near full capacity by 2019 while the world was addicted to gimmicks like Just-in-Time inventory management. ...the unwind is taking awhile.
Easing restrictions obviously will help, but the system is all sorts of broken right now. Even with no government meddling and friction, this will take several months to unwind, even in the most optimistic scenarios.
Do you see the U.S. economy heading toward recession. Why or why not?
That's a bit out of my scope as a maritime shipping investor. Frankly, the Chinese economy is a bigger focus and risk area for many of our investments. Generally speaking, my concern would be if a mixture of higher rates and equity market collapse drove a rapid slowdown in hiring and other economic activity. The corrections we saw in January were very encouraging and it looks like a decent chunk of the speculative bubble has started to deflate.
Do you ever use market cap to GDP to measure how expensive stocks are? Why are why not? If not, what's your favorite metric to use.
Also a pretty broad question for me, but I'll try my best, just please remember I'm outside of my lane here! I think the market cap-GDP ratio is likely skewed based on how many companies are public versus private. Although not a perfect index, I do like the Schiller CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price to earnings) caveated by interest rate levels.
A mistake a lot of bears have made for the past 3-4 years was to ignore that we are in a ZIRP environment (zero interest rate policy), which means historical CAPE comparisons are flawed.
With rates now set to slowly start rising in 2022, the CAPE starts to become more relevant and that's likely why high-flier speculative things like the ARKK ETF have been unwinding hard.
If you look past the broad market indices (SPY, QQQ, Dow 30), we are arguably in the midst of a raging bear market in small caps. Price discovery is starting to come back, and fundamental valuations should hopefully play a much larger role going forward.
Any progress on ports being upgraded or rail lines being improved, as you suggested may happen back in 2021?
The infrastructure bill had some hefty port allocations, but these are massive projects which will take years to roll out. Call me in 2023-2024 to chat about those!
The far bigger supply chain concern this year is the pending renewal of the ILWU (west coast labor union) contract, which expires at the end of June. This was a hard-fought 3 year extension agreed back in mid-2019 when the industry was in a far weaker position. This time around, the workers have enormous bargaining power and they are likely to fight for better provisions. If this leads to a strike or shutdown of any sort, then congestion could surge, freight rates could blow through the roof, and all my more conservative projections are likely to be exceeded.
In this sort of outcome, stocks like ZIM could go to $200+. Will this happen? It is hard to tell.
Labor negotiations are never easy, but the industry might also be more willing to cut a sweetheart deal or offer a lucrative extension until things are more normalized. We'll see... I am watching closely!
Do you ever invest in rail? If so, what are some of your favorite names and why? If not, why not? How does rail differ from shipping to a novice investor?
No. Valuations just are not attractive in rail right now versus the maritime angles. Rail is a better business in general due to fixed capacity and extreme difficulty for new entrants to compete (i.e. a strong moat), but I don't believe it's worth paying 5-10x the valuations versus strong maritime shipping firms.
Maritime shipping is more of a commodity like energy stocks or mining stocks. Rail is much more comparable to utility or telecom stocks.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
12:13 min
IT'S ABOUT TO GO DOWN. A TRUCKING BLOODBATH 2.0 IS RIGHT WROUND THE CORNER. #truckdriver #trucking
Mar 25, 2022
Spot rates are falling fast and volumes are dropping. Stores over-stocked inventory. People aren't buying material things. They are spending on travel, experiences and entertainment. Too many trucks and drivers. Bankruptcies on the way.
parsonswife
Veteran Member
Wow 2 years ago there were not enough drivers not enough trucks....now it's crashing? Glad DH isn't doing long haul these daysView: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBR69PQcnLk
12:13 min
IT'S ABOUT TO GO DOWN. A TRUCKING BLOODBATH 2.0 IS RIGHT WROUND THE CORNER. #truckdriver #trucking
Mar 25, 2022
View attachment 330408
Spot rates are falling fast and volumes are dropping. Stores over-stocked inventory. People aren't buying material things. They are spending on travel, experiences and entertainment. Too many trucks and drivers. Bankruptcies on the way.
View attachment 330409
View attachment 330410View attachment 330411
marsh
On TB every waking moment
You can see if hauls are going down in number, haulers are going up in number, haul rates are going down and diesel fuel costs are going up, it will be a catastrophic collapse. They will have to hang the keys up. I hope enough survive to maintain a breeding population or we are all in deep doo doo.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Another Supply Chain Shock On Deck: Cargo Backlog Ripples Beyond Shanghai As Lockdown Stops Trucks, Containerships
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 12, 2022 - 09:45 AM
By Eric Kulish of Freight Waves
Rerouting freight to avoid the extended lockdown in Shanghai, where daily confirmed COVID cases topped a record 17,000 this week, is becoming more difficult and expensive as cargo facilities in other Chinese cities become overcrowded, logistics companies and carriers warn.
The logistics challenges for ocean and airfreight in Shanghai are extreme.
More than 90% of truck capacity is out of service. Trucks are prevented from moving in and out of the city without a special permit, which is only valid for 24 hours and only on specific routes. “Even with this arranged, it is possible for booked trucks to be commandeered by the government to transport aid supplies,” Seko Logistics said in an update for clients.
Most warehouses in the city are closed. Pactl, the large airport cargo terminal operator, only has skeleton operations.
Limited truck access to Shanghai port terminals is causing shipping containers to pile up and slowing ship transfers. Seko said its team in Shanghai has seen an 80% decrease in container pickups from outside the lockdown area because of driver shortages and restrictions, with drivers requiring a special pass and negative COVID test results.
Mediterranean Shipping Co., the world’s largest container vessel operator, on Thursday said it will begin offloading refrigerated containers at other ports because there are no available power plugs to connect to in Shanghai. Unless customers request a specific change in destination within seven days, reefers will be discharged at intermediate or alternate ports of the carrier’s choosing. Additional freight charges for transshipment, storage, equipment rental and electrical connection may apply.
“If the situation does not improve soon it may be necessary to abandon the voyage and advise you from where your container may be collected,” MSC said in a customer notice.
Ocean Network Express also said overcrowding at two Shanghai container terminals might prevent its vessels from discharging reefer boxes.
Several ocean carriers have announced they will skip berthing at Shanghai due to traffic restrictions, which Seko said will intensify congestion at the terminals once restrictions are lifted.
Congestion spreads
Meanwhile, terminals at the Port of Ningbo are filling up and facing equipment shortages as more freight is diverted from Shanghai, freight forwarders report. Freight rates from Ningbo are rising as a result.
AIT Worldwide, based in Itasca, Illinois, notified customers that cargo terminals at other airports are now reporting delays of their own with Shanghai Pudong International Airport effectively out of action.
In Zhengzhou, for example, inbound and outbound air shipments can take up to seven days to get through a queue and another three to four days to be processed. Import operations at the Nanjing airport are suspended. And authorities are requiring all imported cargo in Qingdao to be stored in the terminal for 10 days following disinfection.
(Source: AIT Worldwide)Logistics providers are also redirecting cargo to airports in Wuhan, Hangzhou and Nanchang.
International passenger and cargo airlines have responded by canceling the majority of flights in and out of Shanghai Pudong airport. Delta Air Lines, for example, said this week it won’t process cargo there until at least April 18. Most international cargo flights are now being operated by Chinese airlines, said Itasca-based Seko Logistics, which has moved more than 10 tons of airfreight through alternate airports since the Shanghai restrictions began nearly two weeks ago.
Seko also reported that an outbreak in Quzhou is spreading, with shipments scheduled for departure in the coming weeks needing to be postponed until the government settles on a course of action.
Nick Bartlett, director of CBIP Logistics in Hong Kong, told FreightWaves cases of infection are increasing in Suzhou and all of Jiangsu Province and that Zhejiang is likely to next feel restrictive measures.
“We have cargo stuck on trucks, in warehouses and container freight stations,” in Shanghai and no new containers are able to reach the port there, he said via email.
The lockdown in Kunshan, an important electronics manufacturing hub next to Shanghai, is supposed to end by the end of the week. Truck movements in and out of the city are severely restricted, except for pandemic relief supplies approved by the local government, Seko said.
Trucks can only shuttle within the city between warehouses and factories with special approval.
The restrictions are impacting the Wuxi Logistics Park and Seko clients with suppliers in the city.