Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

Cacheman

Veteran Member



The Coming Modern Grand Solar Minimum
By Anony Mee

8-10 minutes


I wrote last week about the coming Grand Solar Minimum, something that will have much more impact on the environment than anything we puny humans can do. It generated a lot of interest from all sides, so it’s time to delve deeper into what we can expect.

Starting with the hype: During the last grand solar minimum (GSM), the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715, glaciers advanced, rivers froze, sea ice expanded -- in short, the Little Ice Age. Is another one is almost upon us?

Probably not. Maunder occurred at the tail end of a bi-millennial cycle. These cycles range between 2,000 and 2,600 years in length and see the Earth first warm, then cool. Gradual cooling had been going on for hundreds of years. Maunder just capped it off. Today we are a few hundred years into the warming phase of the subsequent bi-millennial cycle. Different starting conditions yield different paths.

The progressives say that we’re so deep into anthropogenically accelerated climate change (AACC) that there’s almost no time left to turn things around. If we don’t act now, it will be too late.

Nope, sorry squad members. What we can predict, instead, is an overall temperature reduction of 1 degree Centigrade by the end of the GSM. Afterward, natural warming at the rate of around 0.5 C. every hundred years will continue for the next 600 years or so.


That gives us a good 35 to 50 years to hone the science and come up with the best ways to mitigate the impact of unstoppable global warming on humankind; until, that is, it naturally reverses. See suggestions below for better uses of funding currently earmarked to address the “climate crisis.”

Reasonably speaking: We’ve been warming, so the cooling of the GSM will just even us out for a while. Therefore, nothing to worry about, right?

Well, not quite. There are a few worries. Plants grow in response to warmth, moisture, nutrients, and most importantly sunlight. Even if the temperature does not plunge to glacial depths, some cooling will take place and clouds are expected to grow denser and cover much of the earth’s surface as this GSM bottoms out. If normally-correlating volcanism takes place, the additional material in the atmosphere will further darken the globe and provide even more opportunity for condensation and cloud formation.

Last year, Dr. Valentina Zharkova wrote “This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum…would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth” (not to mention their livestock).

The pessimists ask, what else can go wrong? Well, cooling will increase the demand for heat, darker days will increase the demand for light, and unfavorable outside conditions will increase the demand for power for enclosed food production. With more power needed, the amount we currently rely on from solar installations will decrease as cloud cover limits their efficacy.



A decrease in solar ultraviolet radiation can be expected to slow the formation of ozone in the atmosphere, a lack of which tends to destabilize the jet stream, causing wilder weather. Wind generators turn off when the wind is excessively strong. As we now know, they are not immune from freezing in place. In the face of a greater demand for power, we will generate less.

Even worse is this: Historically, GSMs have been associated with extreme weather events. Floods, droughts, heavy snowfall, late springs, and early autumns have all resulted in famine. Famine during GSMs has led to starvation and societal upheaval. No one wants the former, and I think we’ve seen enough of the latter this past year or so to do for our lifetimes.

We’re about 16 months into this GSM, with 32 more years to go. Already 2019 and 2020 saw record low numbers of sunspots. We’ve had lower than expected crop harvests due to unseasonable rains both years. The April 2021 USDA World Agricultural Product report has articles detailing Taiwan’s expected 20% decrease in rice production this year over last, Cuba’s rice production 15% below its five-year average, Argentina's corn, Australia's cotton, Malaysia's palm oil -- all down, all due primarily to the weather. There are some expected bumper crops, all based on expanded acreage.

We’ve got seven years until we hit the trough. There’s no time to lose. Fortunately, We the People are amazing. We’re strong, courageous, resilient, smart, well-educated, and clever. We are capable of coming together for a common cause and working well together regardless of politics and other differences. We must pull together to make sure we all survive the coming tumult. Here’s what we do.


On the federal level, take the brakes off energy production. No more talk of closing power plants, especially coal-fired ones, or of removing hydroelectric dams. Reinstate the Keystone XL pipeline; we’re going to need that fuel available to us when the predictable contraction of the global fuel market occurs. Extend the tax credits for those who install solar power. Production may not be optimal during the GSM, but as much as can occur will take a load off commercial energy.

At the United Nations, Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield should prioritize preparations for the coming dark, cold years. It is in the world’s best interest that all nations cease aggressions, even if just for a decade or so, so that we all may turn our resources to securing the lives of our peoples.

The USDA should not just take the brakes off agricultural production; it should encourage all producers to ramp it up. We need to have enough on hand to address the expected shortfall between production and requirement for at least five years. All loans to all farmers should be forgiven if they will agree to get on board with maximizing production. Garden seed producers, along with all other producers and processors, should be given significant tax credits for ramping up their production too.

Commerce should support vastly expanded food processing for long-term storage. Congress should fund the acquisition and storage of surplus staples and other food commodities so that sufficient amounts are on hand to keep our markets, feeding programs, and food banks operating when crop after crop begins to fail. Stockpiling for our future should take precedence over exports.

The NSC should demand a reconstitution of our strategic grain reserve, and that we prepare not just for ourselves, but to be able to share with needy neighbors and allies to keep America secure.

State, local, and tribal governments should clear away barriers to gardening and small animal production, including not limiting water catchment for gardening. Everything folks can do for themselves will take pressure off public services and limited markets. Local Emergency Services operations should also look at acquiring stocks of staples to help support their residents, as was done in many places last year.

Individuals, as well as schools and other institutions, should begin to garden, even if it’s just pots in a window. It’s a skill that takes time to learn and practice. Everyone should begin to preserve food for the hard times coming – freezing, canning, drying, smoking, pickling. As much as we can do for ourselves, we won’t be looking for someone else to have done for us.

This is really most important. We need to act now while food production is still relatively normal. Later on, if there’s nothing to buy, it won’t matter how much money we have on hand, as individuals or as a nation.

Anony Mee is a retired public servant and wants to see us all get through this in one piece.
 

TxGal

Day by day
At least 138 volcanoes buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet - Ice Age Now

At least 138 volcanoes buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet
April 20, 2021 by Robert

If a couple of these babies should pop off, we could be looking at lots more melting ice.
_____________

Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet,” read the headline in The Guardian on 12 Aug 2017.



This is in addition to the 47 subglacial volcanoes already known about in Antarctica, wrote Robin McKie.

This makes it the largest volcanic region on Earth, and it’s hidden 1.2 miles (2 km) below the surface of the vast ice sheet that covers west Antarctica.

A project by Edinburgh University researchers revealed the 91 volcanoes – with the highest as tall as the Eiger, which stands at almost 4,000 meters (13,123 ft) in Switzerland.

Put another way, the highest of these newly discovered volcanoes stands more than two miles tall!

The tips of some of the volcanoes actually lie above the ice and have been spotted by polar explorers over the past century.

Geologists say this huge region is likely to dwarf that of east Africa’s volcanic ridge, currently rated as having the densest concentration of volcanoes in the world.

And the activity of this range could have worrying consequences, they warn. “If one of these volcanoes were to erupt it could further destabilise west Antarctica’s ice sheets,” said glacier expert Robert Bingham, one of the paper’s authors. “Anything that causes the melting of ice – which an eruption certainly would – is likely to speed up the flow of ice into the sea.

But how many lie below the ice? Max Van Wyk de Vries, who was then an undergraduate at the university’s school of geosciences and a self-confessed volcano fanatic, set up the project with the help of Bingham. They analysed measurements made by previous surveys using ice-penetrating radar, then compared the results with satellite and database records and geological information from other aerial surveys. “Essentially, we were looking for evidence of volcanic cones sticking up into the ice,” Bingham said..

These newly discovered volcanoes are all covered in ice, which sometimes lies in layers that are more than 2.5 miles (4km) thick in the region. These active peaks are concentrated in the west Antarctic rift system, which stretches 3,500km from Antarctica’s Ross ice shelf to the Antarctic peninsula.

“We were amazed,” Bingham said. “We had not expected to find anything like that number…. We also suspect there are even more on the bed of the sea that lies under the Ross ice shelf, so that I think it is very likely this region will turn out to be the densest region of volcanoes in the world, greater even than east Africa, where mounts Nyiragongo, Kilimanjaro, Longonot and all the other active volcanoes are concentrated.”

The discovery is particularly important because if heat from these volcanoes should melt the ice, meltwater outflows into the Antarctic ocean could trigger sea level rises. “We just don’t know about how active these volcanoes have been in the past,” Bingham said. “That is something we need to determine as quickly as possible.”

My question is, if we don’t even know for sure how many volcanoes may be lurking beneath the ice even today, how do we know how much ice they (and not humans) may be melting? We love blaming humans for outcomes driven by strictly natural forces.

See entire article by Robin McKie:
Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Farmers Warn That The Megadrought In The Western US Threatens To Cause Devastating Crop Failures In 2021

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, APR 20, 2021 - 06:45 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Throughout U.S. history, there have always been droughts in the western half of the country from time to time, but what we are dealing with now is truly alarming. Scientists tell us that a multi-year “megadrought” has developed in the southwestern portion of the country, and this is the worst year of that “megadrought” so far by a wide margin. If conditions do not radically improve soon, we are going to have a major agricultural disaster on our hands. Some farmers have already decided not to plant crops at all this year, but many others have decided to plant anyway knowing that if enough rain doesn’t come their crops will certainly fail.



As I have discussed previously, the epicenter of this “megadrought” is the Four Corners region in the Southwest, but this drought is so immense it is even causing immense nightmares for farmers as far away as North Dakota.
In fact, the first few months of this year were the driest that North Dakota has seen in 126 years

The period of January to March 2021 was the driest in 126 years for North Dakota. Farmers are starting to make difficult decisions on planting and culling herds as the governor of the state declared a statewide drought disaster on April 8. Soil moistures across the state, particularly in western portions of North Dakota, are lacking sufficient moisture to sustain normal crop development growth. The first eight days of April 2021 offered little help as hot, summer-like temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity across the state accelerated drying conditions.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, well over half the state is now experiencing “severe drought”.
Perhaps you don’t care about what is happening in North Dakota, but you should, because much of the wheat that we use for pasta and flour comes from that region
Things are dry and dusty in the Upper Midwest, the Northern Plains states and the Prairie provinces of Canada.
This region, spanning states such as North Dakota and provinces such as Manitoba, is the most important one for spring wheat, the higher-gluten variety that’s used for pasta or mixed with other wheat for all-purpose flour. And that crop is at significant risk, because conditions in the region are pretty dire this year.
In a previous article I discussed the dramatic rise in food prices that we have been witnessing lately, and now drought fears are pushing futures prices for spring wheat quite a bit higher

The US Drought Monitor shows around 70 percent of North Dakota in “extreme drought” conditions, with most of the rest in the slightly less scary “severe drought” rating. As a result, the futures prices of both spring wheat and canola are at their highest in years, with traders expecting a lower harvest this year.
Despite all of our advanced technology, farmers can’t grow crops if it doesn’t rain, and a farmer in Texas named Blake Fennell says that his farm has not had any significant rain in almost two years

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.
“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.
What a nightmare.

Right now, nearly the entire state of Texas is in some level of drought, and we haven’t even gotten to the summer months yet.

To call this a “plague” would be a major understatement. On the border of Oregon and California, farmers just learned that water levels are so low that they will only get “a tiny fraction of the water they need” in 2021…

Hundreds of farmers who rely on a massive irrigation project that spans the Oregon-California border learned Wednesday they will get a tiny fraction of the water they need amid the worst drought in decades, as federal regulators attempt to balance the needs of agriculture against federally threatened and endangered fish species that are central to the heritage of several tribes.
Oregon’s governor said the prolonged drought in the region has the “full attention of our offices,” and she is working with congressional delegates, the White House and federal agencies to find relief for those affected.
Do you think that you could run a successful farm under such conditions?

Elsewhere in California, water allocation reductions of up to 95 percent are forcing many farmers to make some exceedingly heartbreaking decisions

Drought conditions are already forcing Valley farmers to make difficult decisions when it comes to their crops as many are facing severe water restrictions.
“There’s districts throughout California that have experienced up to 95% reductions in water,” says Fresno County Farm Bureau CEO Ryan Jacobsen.
U.S. food production will be down in 2021, but if sufficient rain starts falling in the western U.S. we could still see a miracle.

But if enough rain does not fall, we are going to see epic crop failures.

Meanwhile, it is being projected that the drought will cause the water level in Lake Mead to soon fall to the lowest level ever recorded

Wracked by drought, climate change and overuse, a key reservoir on the Colorado River could sink to historically low levels later this year, new US government projections show, potentially triggering significant water cutbacks in some states as early as next year.
The projections released by the US Bureau of Reclamation show that Lake Mead — the largest reservoir in the country and a vital water supply to millions across the Southwest — could fall later this year to its lowest levels since it was filled in the 1930s.
If you live anywhere in the western half of the country, you should brace yourself for severe water restrictions.
And all of us need to brace ourselves for much higher prices at the grocery store.

For decades, the western half of the country was blessed with unusually high levels of rainfall, but that wasn’t going to last forever.

Now Dust Bowl conditions have returned, and farmers, ranchers and local authorities are starting to panic.

As this megadrought continues to intensify, life is going to dramatically change in the western half of the nation, and that is going to deeply affect all of us.

* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

Farmers Warn That The Megadrought In The Western US Threatens To Cause Devastating Crop Failures In 2021 | ZeroHedge
 
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TxGal

Day by day
‘Throat of fire’ volcano signaled imminent, devastating COLLAPSE back in Feb 2020 - Ice Age Now

‘Throat of fire’ volcano signaled imminent, devastating COLLAPSE back in Feb 2020
April 20, 2021 by Robert

Has anyone heard about what has happened since?

Scientists are warning that the Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador is showing early signs of impending catastrophic collapse, after satellite data showed substantial internal damage from ongoing magma activity.

Tungurahua, has been persistently active since 1999 so wear and tear was inevitable, especially given that the ‘Throat of fire,’ or ‘Black giant’ as the Quechua indigenous people named it, has already collapsed twice before thousands of years ago.


Tungurahua erupting on 2 Nov 1999 – Credit USGS

“Using satellite data we have observed very rapid deformation of Tungurahua’s west flank, which our research suggests is caused by imbalances between magma being supplied and magma being erupted,” says geophysical volcanologist James Hickey from the University of Exeter in the UK, whose worrying research was recently published.

Tungurahua previously collapsed at the end of the Late Pleistocene, after which it then rebuilt itself for thousands of years, before collapsing again about 3,000 years ago.

Such collapses can trigger massive landslides and pyroclastic flows, which can travel for tens of kilometers. For example, the collapse 3,000 years ago is thought to have laid waste to an area of roughly 31 sq miles (80 sq km).

Meanwhile, an eruption in 1999 forced the evacuation of some 25,000 people, so the impact on human life in the area should the volcano collapse again would be truly staggering.

‘Throat of fire’ volcano signalling imminent, devastating COLLAPSE

Thanks to Dr Klaus Kaiser for this link

More about Tungurahua

“Tungurahua is one of the most active volcanoes in Ecuador, and is located about 140 km south of the capital city of Quito,” says volcanologist John Search.

“Tungurahua is a steep-sided stratovolcano that towers 3 km (1.86 miles) above its northern base. Tungurahua volcano has a complex historical record which includes sudden, violent eruptions. The volcano has a diameter of 14 km (8.7 miles).

“Historic volcanic activity has occurred at the summit vent, and has consisted of strombolian to vulcanian explosions, sometimes accompanied by pyroclastic flows, lava flows and lahars.

“During the past 1300 years eruptive episodes were generally once per century, and commenced with lapilli emission and pyroclastic flows, followed by lava flows or lava plug in the crater. This cycle was observed in the largest historic eruptions in 1773, 1886 and 1916-1918.”

Here are the known (or extrapolated) dates of previous Tungurahua Volcano Eruptions

1999-2013, 1944?, 1916-25, 1900?, 1886-88, 1885?, 1857, 1781?, 1777?, 1776, 1773, 1757?, 1646?, 1644?, 1641, 1640?, 1557, 1350 ± 50 years, 1250 ± 50, 1030 ± 75, 800 AD?, 730 AD ± 200, 600 AD?, 480 AD ± 75, 350 AD?, 200 AD?, 100 AD?, 50 BC?, 100 BC?, 270 BC ± 100, 500 BC?, 1010 BC ± 100, 7750 BC?

Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador | John Seach
 

TxGal

Day by day
100+ Million Americans to suffer Sub-Freezing Cold, as Northern Hemisphere Snow Mass Climbs to a Historic 2,400 Gigatons - Electroverse




100+ MILLION AMERICANS TO SUFFER SUB-FREEZING COLD, AS NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SNOW MASS CLIMBS TO A HISTORIC 2,400 GIGATONS
APRIL 21, 2021 CAP ALLON

The Grand Solar Minimum isn’t the apocalypse, let me make that clear; as long as you and your loved ones go into this cooling period properly prepared, the epoch will be entirely survivable. The cold will be manageable. Hard. But as I say, entirely survivable–maybe even ‘thrivable’ (as there will be no 9-5 slave model weighing you down). Your concern, however –at least initially– will be the hordes of unprepared coming for your food and resources–which will likely include those members of BLM currently busy ‘rehearsing’ in Minnesota.

100+ MILLION AMERICANS TO SUFFER SUB-FREEZING COLD

A monster upper low will intensify Wednesday and deliver a brutal late-April Arctic blast to North Americans.

According to the latest weather models (shown below), more than 100 million Americans will suffer sub-freezing temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, some as far south as Georgia.

Hundreds, likely thousands, of new cold records will tumble this week, adding to the numbers compiled by warm-mongers NOAA, who, despite their UHI-ignoring , data-tampering ways have year-to-date low temperatures records outstripping warm records 13,835 to 10,949.

This week’s freeze is/was entirely predicted by low solar activity and a meridional jet stream flow. Growers up on these facts knew that the past few weeks of seasonal warmth couldn’t be trusted to last, and now all of these well-informed farmers, homesteaders and preppers will have crop-saving measures ready to go–which is just as well, as this next GSM-induced polar outbreak is looking truly punishing:

APRIL 20:


GFS temp anomalies for late-Tues [tropicaltidbits.com].

APRIL 21:


GFS temp anomalies for Weds [tropicaltidbits.com].

APRIL 22 (AM):


GFS temp anomalies for Thurs morning [tropicaltidbits.com].

APRIL 22 (PM):


GFS temp anomalies for Thurs evening [tropicaltidbits.com].

Below is a look at the actual GFS 2-m Air Temperatures (in Fahrenheit) for Wednesday, April 21.

Note, sub-freezing cold will grip the vast-majority of the CONUS.


GFS 2-m air temp (F) for Weds [tropicaltidbits.com].

On top of the big freeze, heavy, record-setting SNOW will also push in.

Accumulations will begin building along the Cascades and down into the Sierra over the weekend, bringing the region a little much-needed drought relief.

The Western Frontier will also cop historic late-April pow-pow, as will swathes of the east, with intense deposits burying the northeast in particular.

The wintry precipitation is forecast to persist into May:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) April 21 to May 6 [tropicaltidbits.com].

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SNOW MASS CLIMBS TO A HISTORIC 2,400 GIGATONS

This truly incredibly late-season snowfall will only add to the already jaw-dropping Total snow mass for the Northern Hemisphere chart, which, as of the latest data point (April 19), is standing at an unprecedented 2,400 Gigatons and some 700 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:


[FMI]

The above charts and data do ALL the talking.

There is nothing more for me to add–other than “prepare.”


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Our overnight temps held to the upper 30s, near as I can tell. Windy and cold, but that likely saved us from a frost.

For those with gardens in and fruit trees in bloom/bud, how did you all do overnight?
 

paxsim2

Contributing Member
The forecast was for 30, we got down to 27. Covered what we could and prayed over the rest! Seems to have affected the potatoes some but with sunshine they are perking up.
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 - 10:25 AM

An unusually cold front moved into the Central US early this week, spilling Arctic air throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley. By Wednesday morning, "record-shattering cold" temperatures have been reported.

From the Canada–US border to Texas, unseasonably cold air has been recorded. For many states in the Central US, temperatures are over 20 degrees below average.




BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz wrote in his latest note that cold air spans from southern Canada to near Mexico on Wednesday morning. He posted a chart of dozens of locations in the Central US that set various cold record lows (some were daily and or monthly records).

"The record-breaking cold has settled in this morning across the central US, stretching from near Mexico to southern Canada…as cross-polar flow drops in Arctic levels of frost/freeze temps in the late spring season. Additional record cold pushes east into Thursday morning as well before things start to moderate into the weekend," Hinz said.


"Further west it was colder yes but more records were broken today vs yesterday," Hinz said.

None of this should be surprising to readers as we noted days ago that commodity traders were anticipating a cold spell that was supporting corn prices.

We also noted the freezing temperatures could have a profound impact on seedling development this spring.
The cold blast has likely delayed seeding across the Corn Belt as farmers wait for warmer temperatures. Planting corn in cooler climates is still possible, but colder soil can take corn kernels much longer to germinate and increases the risk of seedling death.
Volatile weather for the Heartland could impact crop yields at the end of this year's growing season.


"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US | ZeroHedge
 

TxGal

Day by day
"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 - 10:25 AM

An unusually cold front moved into the Central US early this week, spilling Arctic air throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley. By Wednesday morning, "record-shattering cold" temperatures have been reported.

From the Canada–US border to Texas, unseasonably cold air has been recorded. For many states in the Central US, temperatures are over 20 degrees below average.




BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz wrote in his latest note that cold air spans from southern Canada to near Mexico on Wednesday morning. He posted a chart of dozens of locations in the Central US that set various cold record lows (some were daily and or monthly records).




"Further west it was colder yes but more records were broken today vs yesterday," Hinz said.

None of this should be surprising to readers as we noted days ago that commodity traders were anticipating a cold spell that was supporting corn prices.

We also noted the freezing temperatures could have a profound impact on seedling development this spring.


Volatile weather for the Heartland could impact crop yields at the end of this year's growing season.


"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US | ZeroHedge
Combine this article together with the one a few days ago on the bad drought forecasted, and this could get ugly really fast.

Crops are looking to be badly affected by the drought, and many people are seeing their gardens suffering frost/freeze damage in the early stages of growth. We'll likely see even more price increases at the grocery store, along with scarcity of certain produce.

The quality of the produce through most of the past year hasn't been that great at the grocery store either, from what we've seen. Fruit, especially, often seemed to go bad before it finished ripening (peaches especially). Cantaloupes were dreadful looking and despite that, ridiculously high in price. If the fruit looked decent on the outside, it was often really lacking in flavor.

This is shaping up to be a really challenging year.
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
The Coming Modern Grand Solar Minimum
By Anony Mee

I wrote last week about the coming Grand Solar Minimum, something that will have much more impact on the environment than anything we puny humans can do. It generated a lot of interest from all sides, so it’s time to delve deeper into what we can expect.

Starting with the hype: During the last grand solar minimum (GSM), the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715, glaciers advanced, rivers froze, sea ice expanded -- in short, the Little Ice Age. Is another one is almost upon us?

Probably not. Maunder occurred at the tail end of a bi-millennial cycle. These cycles range between 2,000 and 2,600 years in length and see the Earth first warm, then cool. Gradual cooling had been going on for hundreds of years. Maunder just capped it off. Today we are a few hundred years into the warming phase of the subsequent bi-millennial cycle. Different starting conditions yield different paths.

The progressives say that we’re so deep into anthropogenically accelerated climate change (AACC) that there’s almost no time left to turn things around. If we don’t act now, it will be too late.

Nope, sorry squad members. What we can predict, instead, is an overall temperature reduction of 1 degree Centigrade by the end of the GSM. Afterward, natural warming at the rate of around 0.5 C. every hundred years will continue for the next 600 years or so.

That gives us a good 35 to 50 years to hone the science and come up with the best ways to mitigate the impact of unstoppable global warming on humankind; until, that is, it naturally reverses. See suggestions below for better uses of funding currently earmarked to address the “climate crisis.”

Reasonably speaking: We’ve been warming, so the cooling of the GSM will just even us out for a while. Therefore, nothing to worry about, right?

Well, not quite. There are a few worries. Plants grow in response to warmth, moisture, nutrients, and most importantly sunlight. Even if the temperature does not plunge to glacial depths, some cooling will take place and clouds are expected to grow denser and cover much of the earth’s surface as this GSM bottoms out. If normally-correlating volcanism takes place, the additional material in the atmosphere will further darken the globe and provide even more opportunity for condensation and cloud formation.

Last year, Dr. Valentina Zharkova wrote “This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum…would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth” (not to mention their livestock).

The pessimists ask, what else can go wrong? Well, cooling will increase the demand for heat, darker days will increase the demand for light, and unfavorable outside conditions will increase the demand for power for enclosed food production. With more power needed, the amount we currently rely on from solar installations will decrease as cloud cover limits their efficacy.

A decrease in solar ultraviolet radiation can be expected to slow the formation of ozone in the atmosphere, a lack of which tends to destabilize the jet stream, causing wilder weather. Wind generators turn off when the wind is excessively strong. As we now know, they are not immune from freezing in place. In the face of a greater demand for power, we will generate less.

Even worse is this: Historically, GSMs have been associated with extreme weather events. Floods, droughts, heavy snowfall, late springs, and early autumns have all resulted in famine. Famine during GSMs has led to starvation and societal upheaval. No one wants the former, and I think we’ve seen enough of the latter this past year or so to do for our lifetimes.

We’re about 16 months into this GSM, with 32 more years to go. Already 2019 and 2020 saw record low numbers of sunspots. We’ve had lower than expected crop harvests due to unseasonable rains both years. The April 2021 USDA World Agricultural Product report has articles detailing Taiwan’s expected 20% decrease in rice production this year over last, Cuba’s rice production 15% below its five-year average, Argentina's corn, Australia's cotton, Malaysia's palm oil -- all down, all due primarily to the weather. There are some expected bumper crops, all based on expanded acreage.

We’ve got seven years until we hit the trough. There’s no time to lose. Fortunately, We the People are amazing. We’re strong, courageous, resilient, smart, well-educated, and clever. We are capable of coming together for a common cause and working well together regardless of politics and other differences. We must pull together to make sure we all survive the coming tumult. Here’s what we do.

On the federal level, take the brakes off energy production. No more talk of closing power plants, especially coal-fired ones, or of removing hydroelectric dams. Reinstate the Keystone XL pipeline; we’re going to need that fuel available to us when the predictable contraction of the global fuel market occurs. Extend the tax credits for those who install solar power. Production may not be optimal during the GSM, but as much as can occur will take a load off commercial energy.

At the United Nations, Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield should prioritize preparations for the coming dark, cold years. It is in the world’s best interest that all nations cease aggressions, even if just for a decade or so, so that we all may turn our resources to securing the lives of our peoples.

The USDA should not just take the brakes off agricultural production; it should encourage all producers to ramp it up. We need to have enough on hand to address the expected shortfall between production and requirement for at least five years. All loans to all farmers should be forgiven if they will agree to get on board with maximizing production. Garden seed producers, along with all other producers and processors, should be given significant tax credits for ramping up their production too.

Commerce should support vastly expanded food processing for long-term storage. Congress should fund the acquisition and storage of surplus staples and other food commodities so that sufficient amounts are on hand to keep our markets, feeding programs, and food banks operating when crop after crop begins to fail. Stockpiling for our future should take precedence over exports.

The NSC should demand a reconstitution of our strategic grain reserve, and that we prepare not just for ourselves, but to be able to share with needy neighbors and allies to keep America secure.

State, local, and tribal governments should clear away barriers to gardening and small animal production, including not limiting water catchment for gardening. Everything folks can do for themselves will take pressure off public services and limited markets. Local Emergency Services operations should also look at acquiring stocks of staples to help support their residents, as was done in many places last year.

Individuals, as well as schools and other institutions, should begin to garden, even if it’s just pots in a window. It’s a skill that takes time to learn and practice. Everyone should begin to preserve food for the hard times coming – freezing, canning, drying, smoking, pickling. As much as we can do for ourselves, we won’t be looking for someone else to have done for us.

This is really most important. We need to act now while food production is still relatively normal. Later on, if there’s nothing to buy, it won’t matter how much money we have on hand, as individuals or as a nation.
 

adgal

Veteran Member
On the federal level, take the brakes off energy production. No more talk of closing power plants, especially coal-fired ones, or of removing hydroelectric dams. Reinstate the Keystone XL pipeline; we’re going to need that fuel available to us when the predictable contraction of the global fuel market occurs. Extend the tax credits for those who install solar power. Production may not be optimal during the GSM, but as much as can occur will take a load off commercial energy.
But we would have to have intelligent people on the federal level to institute this - our federal government is relying on AOC for science. Pretty much, we're doomed.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Everything you need to know is right here

 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Story going around that Germany had the 2nd coldest winter in 160 yrs.

See this thread for more information, articles, graphics, and photos.


 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
OMG YOU DON'T SAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How is it a place like TB2K has remained uninformed about this threat of disaster???

(6) CRISIS - The Coming Modern Grand Solar Minimum | Timebomb 2000
Some members never go off of the main, and they post articles, questions, and stuff that's already in the subforums. Likewise there are members that never come to the main, they only visit the subforums. Found one of my relatives lurking in the gardening forum here, lol.
 

TxGal

Day by day
For those concerned about possible freeze damage to their blooming/budding fruit trees, Modern Survival Blog did an article on just that today (modernsurvivalblog.com). There was also a link to a pdf by the Utah State University Extension Svc, which shows how to assess damage to the blossoms. I've never seen photos of assessing damage before, it may be helpful to some:

Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees (usu.edu)
 

TxGal

Day by day
Record cold this and tomorrow morning across much of the south-central U.S. - Heavy wet snow headed for northeast - Ice Age Now

Record cold this and tomorrow morning across much of the south-central U.S. – Heavy wet snow headed for northeast
April 21, 2021 by Robert

Below normal temperatures, sometimes record cold (20-25 degrees below average for late April) will shift to parts of the eastern U.S. Thursday morning. So much for the global warming fraud.

21 Apr 2021 – A strong cold front will bring heavy wet snow from the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England and strong thunderstorms with damaging winds in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD.

An intensifying low pressure system is forecast to move across the central Appalachians and into New England through tonight.

A swath of wet snow is expected from New York into northern New England through Friday morning. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are forecast with up to 12 inches possible in northern Maine through Thursday morning.

Well below average temperatures will continue behind this storm system or east of the Rockies, as numerous record low temperatures are likely.

Light snow lingers across the central Rockies as another surge of cold air brings additional snowfall into the northern Rockies.

Subfreezing record cold this morning across much of the south-central U.S. will shift to parts of the eastern U.S. Thursday morning…

Unseasonably cold air – sometimes record cold – will continue to surge into the central U.S. toward the eastern U.S, leading to widespread Freeze Watches and Warnings that cover much of the central U.S., Midwest and the interior eastern U.S.

Numerous daily record low temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken this morning and Thursday morning as temperatures dip to below freezing–around 20-25 degrees below average for late April. Residents in these areas are encouraged to take preventative measures to mitigate the impacts of sub-freezing temperatures on vulnerable vegetation if possible. By Friday, low temperatures will remain around 10 degrees below normal in the Central U.S., with lows hovering in the mid-30’s to 40’s.

The western U.S. can expect lingering light snow across the central Rockies for the next few days while another surge of cold air from western Canada reaches the northern Rockies/High Plains on Thursday. Temperatures will once again tumble, along with a quick burst of snow, as the cold front passes through much of Montana by Thursday evening. The snow should move further south into Wyoming by Friday morning.

WPC's Short Range Public Discussion
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Atmospheric Oddities Across the Continents - YouTube

Atmospheric Oddities Across the Continents
5,852 views • Premiered 2 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/mCT7i6P2INI
Run time is 11:49

Synopsis provided:

Signs of magnetic shifts continue across the planet from 90F hail storms blanketing parts of Saudi Arabia, agricultural catastrophe in France from absurd cold with Majorca's red blizzard alert. In Asia the fastest wind speeds ever recorded in April for a tropical system near the Philippines and Beijing engulfed by 3rd decade intensity sand storm in five weeks.
 

AlaskaSue

North to the Future
Up here at Latitude 62 I never count on more than 90 days' growing season, though I do extend that by growing my seed starts indoors March and April. Harden off the first few weeks of May, then transplant in my various raised beds and side-dress with the compost end of May. Constant hovering and care gets me a good return - even though I am basically carnivore I do want to know that I can grow food and am always, always learning both the growing and the preserving :) Hunting, fishing, trapping, etc - thanks to my brothers and my own inclination - will likely help, at least where I live now.

We have had an amazing amount of snow-melt up here...in over 51 years I've never seen the like. Gorgeous blue-bird days for over a week and more to come. Folks up here like to say 'bring on the global-warming'...but we also know that is completely not gonna happen.

Learn how to grow things and preserve them - throw in hunting and fishing and ya might do okay!
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
For those concerned about possible freeze damage to their blooming/budding fruit trees, Modern Survival Blog did an article on just that today (modernsurvivalblog.com). There was also a link to a pdf by the Utah State University Extension Svc, which shows how to assess damage to the blossoms. I've never seen photos of assessing damage before, it may be helpful to some:

Critical Temperatures for Frost Damage on Fruit Trees (usu.edu)
If you’re in the freeze zone do not harvest and eat your rhubarb. Freezing temps forces the oxalis acid in the leaves back into the stems making them toxic.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Record April Cold Sweeps the United States, with "very rare" and "bizarre" Snow Falling as Far South as Oklahoma - Electroverse



RECORD APRIL COLD SWEEPS THE UNITED STATES, WITH “VERY RARE” AND “BIZARRE” SNOW FALLING AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA
APRIL 22, 2021 CAP ALLON

NORTH AMERICA: A powerful Arctic blast has delivered –and is continuing to deliver– record April cold and snow as far south as Oklahoma, with the unprecedented wintry conditions forecast to run into May.

A strong cold front, riding unusually-far south on the back of a weak and wavy meridional jet stream, has returned large areas of the U.S. and Canada to winter, with hundreds (likely thousands) of cold and snow records falling across many states — a reality that has left global warming proponents scratching their heads, tapping their charts, and bleating dogmatic nonsense such as “it was the warm what did it!”

Snow has settled as far south as Tulsa, Oklahoma, with the city’s previous latest measurable snow (of at least 0.1 inches) being that of April 12, 1957. Needless to say, this mid-week accumulation has smashed that record.

Unprecedented late-season snowfall has buried hundreds of towns and cities across America. Below I’ve highlighted just three.

In Evansville, they are reporting their latest-ever pow-pow this far into spring: totals have comfortably broken the previous record set on April 18 in both 1983 and 1953 (solar minimum of cycle 18 and 21, respectively):

View: https://twitter.com/Arden14News/status/1384685877868253186


“Rare and impressive” record-setting snow was reported in Louisville:

View: https://twitter.com/WLKYChris/status/1384870528889065474


While “very rare” and “bizarre” Indianapolis flurries have annihilated the old April record there.

As of Wednesday morning, Indianapolis recorded 2 inches of snow, “breaking the record for most single-day snow this late in April,” according to NWS Indianapolis. In addition, this makes it the only time this late in the year that the city has received more than a trace of snowfall.

It’s “very, very rare,” said Michael Koch, NWS Indianapolis Senior Meteorologist. He noted that it’s also not common to see heavy snow falling before sunset, as it did Tuesday evening. “I found it really bizarre myself,” Koch said, who clearly hasn’t drawn the link between low solar activity, wavy jet streams and Arctic outbreaks.

View: https://twitter.com/NWSIndianapolis/status/1384702950313013248


Indianapolis also set a new record low temperature for April 21 — the city bottomed-out at 26F (-3.3C) on Wednesday, a reading that beat the previous record low of 28F (-2.8) set back in 1907 (during the Centennial Minimum).

Freezing temperatures are following behind the snow for many others, too; cold that poses a serious threat to gardens and crops alike, reports forbes.com. ‘Freeze Warnings’ are currently covering a huge swath of the central United States, stretching from northwestern Texas to eastern Michigan, alerting residents to the near-freezing or sub-freezing temperatures capable of inflicting serious harm to tender, cold-sensitive plants.

The freeze has already forced many northern Texans to cover-up plants or even bring them inside for the night, reports nbcdfw.com. The mercury early Wednesday morning was in the 30s, which was record-breaking: DFW Airport busted its daily low set more than 100 years ago, with its Weds low of 37F (2.8C) superseding the old benchmark by a full 2 degrees F.

LOOKING AHEAD

The latest GFS run is calling for more of the same on Thursday:

APRIL 22:

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies (C) for April 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Before a second powerful Arctic air mass drops down from central/western Canada on Friday, which is expected to run through the weekend:

APRIL 23:

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies (C) for April 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].

APRIL 24:

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies (C) for April 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Unsettled conditions will see many regions flip-flop between winter and spring during the early part of next week, before another polar front tears through the CONUS as we enter May:

MAY 3:

GFS 2m Temp Anomalies (C) for April 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Furthermore, heavy, record-breaking snow will continue to accompany the cold:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) for April 22 to May 8 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Yup, looks like we have thunderstorms for next Tuesday and Wednesday here in Arkansas, too.

I don't think, with this GSM, that we'll be able to count on havng winter weather only in winter, spring weather only in spring, and so forth. From this point on, I'm going to constantly expect the unexpected.

Wind and storms really are pretty normal for this time of year, but as far as I can remember, the constant ups and downs of temps, not so much.

I'm going to try to develop the mindset that there could often be a lot of cold masses coming down from the north. And then I can be delighted every time it actually gets as warm as it's supposed to for anyparticular time of the year.
 

TxGal

Day by day
"Record-Shattering Cold" Across Central US - Ice Age Now

“Record-Shattering Cold” Across Central US
April 22, 2021 by Robert


Unseasonably cold air has been recorded from the Canadian–US border south into Texas, even into Mexico. For many states in the Central US, temperatures plummeted to more than 20 degrees below average.

‘An unusually cold front moved into the Central US early this week, spilling Arctic air throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley,’ writes Tyler Durden. ‘By Wednesday morning, “record-shattering cold” temperatures have been reported.’

BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz wrote in his latest note that cold air spans from southern Canada to near Mexico on Wednesday morning. He posted a chart of dozens of locations in the Central US that set various cold record lows (some were daily and or monthly records).

“The record-breaking cold has settled in this morning across the central US, stretching from near Mexico to southern Canada…as cross-polar flow drops in Arctic levels of frost/freeze temps in the late spring season. Additional record cold pushes east into Thursday morning as well before things start to moderate into the weekend,” Hinz said.

"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US | ZeroHedge
Thanks to Bill Sellers for this link
 

TxGal

Day by day
Northern hemisphere snow cover trending upward since 1967 - Ice Age Now

Northern hemisphere snow cover trending upward since 1967
April 23, 2021 by Robert

This is according to data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab
_____________

Evidence that climate change is caused by man is neither convincing nor compelling

“Historical climate change might be real, but the evidence presented to date, in an attempt to prove that any recent imagined climate change is caused by man, is neither convincing nor compelling,” says reader David Wozney. “No one has yet proven that man-made carbon dioxide emissions cause any supposed global warming or alleged climate change.”


Winter Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent – Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

“Much key claimed “data”, used to claim supposed global warming or alleged climate change, has not been, and does not become, personally verified and confirmed by people who are independent of certain governments which have a certain political and financial agenda. For example, the authenticity of most Arctic “data”, unlike some data from lower latitudes, is not verified and confirmed by people independent of governments.”

Snow cover trending upward

“However, snow cover maps or data in the coldest months, at lower latitudes, can be at least somewhat partially verified and confirmed independently of governments. Snow cover data in the coldest months shows a trend since 1967 of increasing extent of yearly maximum snow cover in the northern hemisphere. Snow cover extent, at lower latitudes, in the months of December, January, and February can be somewhat partially verified and confirmed by large numbers of people independent of governments.”

“Science involves the need for independent verification and independent confirmation of empirical data, observations, measurements, etc.”

Snow Cover (ocii.com)
ocii.com/~dpwozney/snowcover.htm
 
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