Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day

SEPTEMBER 11, 2020
Volcanic ash may have a bigger impact on the climate than we thought
by University of Colorado at Boulder

Volcanic ash may have a bigger impact on the climate than we thought

A plume of ash and dust rises from Pavlof Volcano on the Alaskan Peninsula in 2013. Credit: NASA

When volcanos erupt, these geologic monsters produce tremendous clouds of ash and dust—plumes that can blacken the sky, shut down air traffic and reach heights of roughly 25 miles above Earth's surface.

A new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder suggests that such volcanic ash may also have a larger influence on the planet's climate than scientists previously suspected.

The new research, published in the journal Nature Communications, examines the eruption of Mount Kelut (or Kelud) on the Indonesian island of Java in 2014. Drawing on real-world observations of this event and advanced computer simulations, the team discovered that volcanic ash seems to be prone to loitering—remaining in the air for months or even longer after a major eruption.

"What we found for this eruption is that the volcanic ash can persist for a long time," said Yunqian Zhu, lead author of the new study and a research scientist at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at CU Boulder.

Lingering ash

The discovery began with a chance observation: Members of the research team had been flying an unmanned aircraft near the site of the Mount Kelut eruption—an event that covered large portions of Java in ash and drove people from their homes. In the process, the aircraft spotted something that shouldn't have been there.

"They saw some large particles floating around in the atmosphere a month after the eruption," Zhu said. "It looked like ash."

Volcanic ash may have a bigger impact on the climate than we thought
Ash covers rooftops in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in the wake of the 2014 eruption of Mount Kelut Credit: CC photo via Wikimedia Commons

She explained that scientists have long known that volcanic eruptions can take a toll on the planet's climate. These events blast huge amounts of sulfur-rich particles high into Earth's atmosphere where they can block sunlight from reaching the ground.

Researchers haven't thought, however, that ash could play much of a role in that cooling effect. These chunks of rocky debris, scientists reasoned, are so heavy that most of them likely fall out of volcanic clouds not long after an eruption.

Zhu's team wanted to find out why that wasn't the case with Kelut. Drawing on aircraft and satellite observations of the unfolding disaster, the group discovered that the volcano's plume seemed to be rife with small and lightweight particles of ash—tiny particles that were likely capable of floating in the air for long periods of time, much like dandelion fluff.

"Researchers have assumed that ash is similar to volcanic glass," Zhu said. "But what we've found is that these floating ones have a density that's more like pumice."

Disappearing molecules

Study coauthor Brian Toon added that these pumice-like particles also seem to shift the chemistry of the entire volcanic plume.

Toon, a professor in LASP and the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU Boulder, explained that erupting volcanos spew out a large amount of sulfur dioxide. Many researchers previously assumed that those molecules interact with others in the air and convert into sulfuric acid—a series of chemical reactions that, theoretically, could take weeks to complete. Observations of real-life eruptions, however, suggest that it happens a lot faster than that.

Volcanic ash may have a bigger impact on the climate than we thought
NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircraft, which observed ash lingering in the air after the eruption. Credit: NASA/Dryden/Carla Thomas

"There has been a puzzle of why these reactions occur so fast," Toon said.

He and his colleagues think they've discovered the answer: Those molecules of sulfur dioxide seem to stick to the particles of ash floating in the air. In the process, they may undergo chemical reactions on the surface of the ash itself—potentially pulling around 43% more sulfur dioxide out of the air.

Ash, in other words, may hasten the transformation of volcanic gasses in the atmosphere.

Just what the impact of those clouds of ash are on the climate isn't clear. Long-lasting particles in the atmosphere could, theoretically, darken and even help to cool the planet after an eruption. Floating ash might also blow all the way from sites like Kelut to the planet's poles. There, it could kickstart chemical reactions that would damage Earth's all-important ozone layer.

But the researchers say that one thing is clear: When a volcano blows, it may be time to pay a lot more attention to all that ash and its true impact on Earth's climate.

"I think we've discovered something important here," Toon said. "It's subtle, but it could make a big difference."
 

TxGal

Day by day
Just below the article above was this link:


AUGUST 6, 2020
Volcanic emissions can cause changes in the atmosphere over a long time
by Gunn Kristin Tjoflot, University of Oslo


Volcanic emissions can cause changes in the atmosphere over a long time

Super volcanoes can cause major destruction. This is the caldera after the volcano Los Chocoyos in Guatemala, now the beautiful Lake Atitlán. Credit: Steffen Kutterolf/GEOMAR

The super volcano Los Chocoyos in Guatemala, Central America, erupted about 84,000 years ago, and was one of the largest volcanic events of the last 100,000 years.

Recent petrological data show that the Los Chocoyos eruption released large amounts of sulfur and ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine gases.

The volcano was part of the well-known Ring of Fire, located like a horseshoe around and in the Pacific. This is an earthquake zone, and here are 75% of all known volcanoes (both active and dormant). The volcanoes Atitlán and Tolimán followed the Los Chocoyos eruption, and remain active today.

In an eruption, super volcanoes can cause enormous destruction locally, but they also have major impacts across the globe due to the huge gas and dust emissions to the atmosphere. And as one research group now shows, they can cause major changes in the atmosphere over several years.

Weakened ozone layer

Based on the Los Chocoyos eruption, scientists from the University of Oslo (UiO), GEOMAR and NCAR simulated emissions of gaseous sulfur and halogen to the atmosphere in pre-industrial times. They used the American earth system Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with interactive 'emissions' of volcanic aerosols and gases into the atmosphere.

The runs showed that elevated amounts of sulfate and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the eruption would persist for five years in the atmosphere, and the amount of halogen would remain high for almost 15 years.

As a consequence of this change in atmospheric chemistry, the ozone layer would collapse. The researchers found an 80 % reduction in the ozone layer as a global average.

"Ozone weakening on this scale could cause a 550 % increase in UV radiation in the first five years after the eruption, which could have very serious potential impacts on humans and the biosphere," says Hans Brenna, first author of the study. He is a doctoral student at the Department of Geosciences at UiO and a researcher at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

The effect on the climate after such a huge volcanic eruption will last up to several decades.

"Recovery to pre-eruption ozone levels and climate takes 15 years and 30 years, respectively, according to results from the simulations. The long-lasting effect of cooling the Earth's surface is sustained by an immediate increase in sea ice area in the Arctic, followed by a decline in ocean heat transport at 60° N to the Arctic Ocean. This effect persists for up to 20 years," says Kirstin Krüger, a professor of meteorology at UiO.

The effect of the eruption strikes differently

The researchers also found that the impact of volcanic eruptions would be different in different parts of the globe. In the northern hemisphere the eruption would cause cooling due to increased atmospheric aerosols, which would increase precipitation and result in a decrease in primary production of more than 25 %. They also found that sea ice cover would increase by 40 % in the first 3 years.

At the equator and in the northern parts of Africa, the eruption would cause increased humidity and result in much higher primary production in the first five years after the eruption. There would be a shift of the low pressure zone at the equator known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which would move more towards southern latitudes. In addition, the sea would react with El Niño-like mechanisms during the first three years; those will also shift southward.

"Because the model uncertainties for climate response and atmospheric chemistry in volcanic eruptions are large, such simulations as ours would have to be supported by physical samples from paleo-archives such as ice and sediment cores and a coordinated model intercomparison," Brenna says.

Atmospheric chemistry—an important discipline for climate research

Atmospheric chemistry is a branch of atmospheric science in which the chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere and of other planets is studied. It is a typical interdisciplinary field of research and is based on several disciplines and methods, such as environmental chemistry, meteorology, computer modeling, physics and geology, to name a few. Research is increasingly linked to other fields, such as climate studies.

The lead author of this article, Hans Brenna, received the Outstanding Student Poster and PICO (OSPP) Awards from the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in 2018 for the poster titled "Global ozone depletion and increase of UV radiation caused by pre-industrial tropical volcanic eruptions."

Based on this poster, they were invited by EGU to write an article, and it is now in the interactive open-access journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Ice Age Farmer has just put up another video!

"Germany Has Stopped Harvesting Crops As African Swine Fever Reaches Europe."

Runs 11:38 minutes, so it is not that interview I posted about a little while ago. I haven't watched this one yet so I don't even know if it might just be cuts from the longer interview.
 

Grouchy Granny

Veteran Member
I thought (maybe I'm wrong) that the effects of volcanic ash in the atmosphere had long been understood to cause massive climate change.

Or, is it just that I'm one of those people that's not on the climate change due to global warming, cow farts, etc. boat????????
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
I just finished listening to the new IAF video and it is NOT cuts from the previous longer video of an interview.

It's full of more information and it's very good!
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
Grouchy Granny, I'm sure it's been known for a long time. But of course the global warmists would ignore it since it isn't caused by the various human activities.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Ice Age Farmer has just put up another video!

"Germany Has Stopped Harvesting Crops As African Swine Fever Reaches Europe."

Runs 11:38 minutes, so it is not that interview I posted about a little while ago. I haven't watched this one yet so I don't even know if it might just be cuts from the longer interview.
Good heavens! Here's the podcast:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HZPyCN6PLQ


Germany Stops Harvest, "Temporarily Bans Agriculture" as African Swine Fever Reaches Europe
6,461 views • Premiered 48 minutes ago

Run time is 11:38

Synopsis provided:

Germany institutes "Agriculture Ban" on all crops within 30km of first confirmed African Swine Fever (ASF), which will not only provide FOOD & SHELTER to the wild hogs spreading the virus, but deprive Germany of that food left in the ground. If this irrational response sets precedent as the virus spreads across west Europe, we will witness the deliberate shutdown of food production, contributing to major global food shortages. Start growing food today.
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
There is a short video on IAF's Twitter page about the fake eggs that the Chinese have developed. It runs only 1:40 and you have to read the sub-titles. I thought this quite interesting.

On the same Twitter page, he posted that China has banned all imports of pork from Germany. I suppose he thought this worth mentioning because right now the swine fever problem is in only one part of Germany.
 

TxGal

Day by day



“WHITEOUTS, HEAVY SNOWFALLS, STRONG HEADWINDS, AND VERY COLD TEMPS” HINDER MULTIPLE GREENLAND EXPEDITIONS
SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 CAP ALLON

Greenland has gained record amounts of snow and ice over the past few months, and the Arctic has experienced record early sea ice growth.

As originally reported by explorersweb.com, unfavorable conditions have persisted across the ice sheet into September hindering the progress of three separate expeditions.

Despite the poor weather, however, Norwegian sisters Aase and Hanne Seeberg are performing strongly overall on their east-to-west traverse: “They have found deep snow but have skied a regular 20km every day,” reports expedition liaison Lars Ebbeson. “They cleared the Summit [the apex of the Ice Sheet] before the last storm on the east side, so have been able to progress over the last few days.”

On the other hand though, Norwegian guide Are Johansen and British client Preet Chandi are reportedly having a much harder time of it. Their first obstacle was the crevasse-ridden glacier above Isortoq on the east coast, which took about three days to surmount before they reached the Ice Sheet proper. Like the Seebergs, they too have faced anomalously-deep snow for the time of year, and are behind schedule–over 100km from the Summit.

Recently, Johansen and Chandi had to dig in and build a snow wall to protect their camp from the very strong winds. They wrote on their blog: “There are a few things you don’t want on an expedition, at least not all at once, but we were put through the test today: whiteout, heavy snow fall, strong headwind and very cold weather.”

The pair managed to travel on Tuesday and Wednesday, but were again “prisoners of the storm” on Thursday and Friday.


Finally, Dixie Dansercoer’s team are perhaps suffering the most with the record snow and ice gains this year.

After struggling through the rapidly-mounting pack on the west coast for five days, the team took a shortcut –an eco-friendly helicopter flight– up to the Ice Sheet. Things have gone a little smoother since then, with impressive daily distances being reached. However, their exact location is currently unknown.

I’m sure they’re fine…?


The COLD TIMES are returning in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow. Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Seeker22

Veteran Member
Good heavens! Here's the podcast:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HZPyCN6PLQ


Germany Stops Harvest, "Temporarily Bans Agriculture" as African Swine Fever Reaches Europe
6,461 views • Premiered 48 minutes ago

Run time is 11:38

Synopsis provided:

Germany institutes "Agriculture Ban" on all crops within 30km of first confirmed African Swine Fever (ASF), which will not only provide FOOD & SHELTER to the wild hogs spreading the virus, but deprive Germany of that food left in the ground. If this irrational response sets precedent as the virus spreads across west Europe, we will witness the deliberate shutdown of food production, contributing to major global food shortages. Start growing food today.
Thumbs WAY up kind of like emoji. If you haven't seen this one yet, take the time.
I remember the Taj Mahal Blind on a South Texas ranch. Maybe somebody remembers the name of the ranch? Been a long time.

This thing was a huge blind set up on stilts. It had all the comforts of home and was set near a field. Hunters would book hunts there months in advance to night hunt under green lights. This was in the days when everyone didn't have access to a night scope. Hogs can't see green band, so that's what they used. Hunters would load up refrigerated trucks with many hogs. This hunt would feed many families through the next year. It also helped the farmers keep the pigs out of their fields. Corn is like candy to them. Canned wild hog is like candy to me.

Before the window closes on our Hunting Season, might want to make it a priority to turn some of those hogs into next year's food security. If people think this can't happen in the US, I think it can. Food is just another weapon. Rather than animal testing and culling the sick ones, Germany banned everything. Disturbing.
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thumbs WAY up kind of like emoji. If you haven't seen this one yet, take the time.
I remember the Taj Mahal Blind on a South Texas ranch. Maybe somebody remembers the name of the ranch? Been a long time.

This thing was a huge blind set up on stilts. It had all the comforts of home and was set near a field. Hunters would book hunts there months in advance to night hunt under green lights. This was in the days when everyone didn't have access to a night scope. Hogs can't see green band, so that's what they used. Hunters would load up refrigerated trucks with many hogs. This hunt would feed many families through the next year. It also helped the farmers keep the pigs out of their fields. Corn is like candy to them. Canned wild hog is like candy to me.

Before the window closes on our Hunting Season, might want to make it a priority to turn some of those hogs into next year's food security. If people think this can't happen in the US, I think it can. Food is just another weapon. Rather than animal testing and culling the sick ones, Germany banned everything. Disturbing.
DH has a hog trap, and has already caught several hogs in it. At times too many to even consider processing, and almost no one around here is interested in them. The Pastor has processed three and DH has processed three. He also helped the pastor.

This is where my DH decided to do his own processing. He is so happy to have totally free meat. He loves hif free breakfast of pork patties and eggs (although he doesn't figure in the cost of feeding the chickens).

People just seem to have no clue, even most of the country people around here. Most don't even grow a tomato plant.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

Seeker22

Veteran Member
DH has a hog trap, and has already caught several hogs in it. At times too many to even consider processing, and almost no one around here is interested in them. The Pastor has processed three and DH has processed three. He also helped the pastor.

This is where my DH decided to do his own processing. He is so happy to have totally free meat. He loves hif free breakfast of pork patties and eggs (although he doesn't figure in the cost of feeding the chickens).

People just seem to have no clue, even most of the country people around here. Most don't even grow a tomato plant.

God is good all the time

Judy
I have heard so many times that canned hog just reeks- tastes terrible. Nope. Get one young enough and pressure can with a teaspoon of canning salt per Quart. Can't tell the difference between that and the expensive store bought Boston Butt. Putting wild hog in a smoker ain't bad, either. There is a special kind of happy in doing it yourself. I know the smile your DH gets over breakfast because I often have one myself. The work is so worth it.
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I have heard so many times that canned hog just reeks- tastes terrible. Nope. Get one young enough and pressure can with a teaspoon of canning salt per Quart. Can't tell the difference between that and the expensive store bought Boston Butt. Putting wild hog in a smoker ain't bad, either. There is a special kind of happy in doing it yourself. I know the smile your DH gets over breakfast because I often have one myself. The work is so worth it.
He has one ham in a salt bucket and another one in a sugar bucket. After they are preserved, we'll decide which way we like them.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

TxGal

Day by day

(note: I posted a link to this posting over on Publius' Sunspot thread, also)



24 SPOTLESS DAYS AND COUNTING: HOW DOES THAT COMPARE HISTORICALLY? AND WHERE IS CYCLE 25?
SEPTEMBER 14, 2020 CAP ALLON

Today marks the Sun’s 24th consecutive spotless day — a somewhat surprising feat given that Solar Cycle 25 had recently been showing clear signs of life.

During periods of low solar activity –such as the historically-deep solar minimum we’re still in now– the Sun will often be devoid of sunspots: these spots can serve as a great barometer for the weather/climate here on Earth.

For 400 years an accurate sunspot record has been kept. This record has allowed us to draw tentative patterns between solar output and the weather/climatic conditions of the past. In turn, these patterns provide us with the ability to make forecasts moving forward, and this method appears to honing in on one forecast and one forecast alone: a cold and snowy future — one akin to the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), the previous prolonged spell of low solar output and the previous ‘full blown’ Grand Solar Minimum:



Yearly Sunspot Numbers.

During the Maunder Minimum “temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged,” say NASA.

“Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”


Today there seems to be no escaping it: our toes appear to be firmly submerged in the beginnings of another Grand Solar Minimum cycle. And even with the next Solar Cycle (25) firing into life, consecutive spotless days –as of Monday, September 14, 2020– have still managed to reach 24.

But how does that compare historically?



SIDC (periods with spotless days).

As visible in the above SIDC table –which ranks the longest spells of consecutive spotless days since 1849– recent years are increasingly making the mark.

The Solar Minimum of Cycle 23 (2008-09) was the deepest of the past 90 years. Referring to the table above, the minimum achieved a 32 spotless day run between July 31 and Aug 31, 2009 as well as a 31 day run between July 21 and Aug 20, 2008.

The Solar Minimum of Cycle 24 –which we’re still in today– has comfortably surpassed Cycle 23’s in both weakness and duration: the minimum achieved an impressive 40 spotless day run between Nov 14 and Dec 23, 2019 and then a 34 day run between Feb 2 and Mar 6, 2020.

This current stretch of 24 spotless days, even though it doesn’t make the list, is actually potentially even more impressive: as mentioned above, Solar Cycle 25 had recently been showing clear signs of life and the fact that we’re still able to experience a 3+week spell of ‘blank’ solar discs is quite remarkable. SC25 should be upon us, yet instead we’re suffering an extended and historically prolonged Solar Minimum of Cycle 24. This all further supports the forecast that the period we’re entering is indeed the next ‘full blown’ Grand Solar Minimum:




SIDC: TOP 25 YEARS WITH THE MOST SPOTLESS DAYS SINCE 1849.

The above chart shows the 25 years with the highest number of spotless days since 1849: as you can see, recent years are beginning to dominate the list with 2007, 2008, and 2009 (solar min of cycle 23) making the mark, as well as 2018, 2019, and 2020 (solar min of cycle 24)–the year 2020 will comfortably make the list with 179 spotless days counted as of Sept 14.


With regards to the recent run of 24 spotless days, this may coming to an end: a proto-sunspot from Solar Cycle 25 is growing in the Sun’s northern hemisphere. This growing spot is not yet large enough to receive an official number, and could still dissipate before lifting the daily sunspot number above zero, but it could also spoil the fun — stay tuned for updates:



A proto-sunspot from Solar Cycle 25 is growing at the circled location. It is not yet large enough to receive an official sunspot number. Credit: SDO/HMI

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.






Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 
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TxGal

Day by day



EARLY-SEASON SNOW HITS THE UK
SEPTEMBER 14, 2020 CAP ALLON

Snow ISN’T a thing of the past. Clearly. This was just another AGW-funded li(n)e (from the early 2000s) that has left a number of activist-scientists with serious egg on their faces.

With meteorological summer barely over, a dusting of rare early-September snow has blanketed the tippy-top of Ben Nevis, Scotland (1,345 metres/4,412 feet).

Climbers stumbled across the surprise wintry scene on Saturday, and took to interweb to share their pictures:



Winter is coming has arrived: Scotland’s first snow of the season arrives in early Sept.

Photos from the Abacus Mountain Guides team reveal winter has arrived early atop the UK’s highest mountain in Lochaber, Scotland:



Abacus Mountain Guides reveals

The snow comes amid several days of bad weather in the area, reports heraldscotland.com; with ten flood alerts being issued across Scotland and an expectation of high winds and rain. Fortunately though, parts of the UK are set for a warm-up beginning Monday, Sept 14 — but then looking further ahead, the GFS is showing another bout of frigid polar air hitting the home nations next week:



GFS 2m Temp Anomalies for Sept 24 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.





Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own
 

Faroe

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Adding this, if anyone cares to watch (50 min run time). Snowwalkers. Pure entertainment - serious winter camping. 100km, 10 ten days, along a river in Canada. Snowshoes and toboggans. Hey, that could be us in a few years!

I've been interested in how to stay alive and warm outside in hostile conditions. All these far north videos are interesting, esp. re. how to pack gear, and dress.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ5EmldH3ZY
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Adding this, if anyone cares to watch (50 min run time). Snowwalkers. Pure entertainment - serious winter camping. 100km, 10 ten days, along a river in Canada. Snowshoes and toboggans. Hey, that could be us in a few years!

I've been interested in how to stay alive and warm outside in hostile conditions. All these far north videos are interesting, esp. re. how to pack gear, and dress.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ5EmldH3ZY

Thats from the "Lure of the North" and they offer these month long winter expeditions trips in northern Canada you need to be fit to do this and buy some serious personal winter clothes and camp equipment.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Green clouds captured over Abisko, Sweden after intense auroras

Spaceweather.com
Mon, 14 Sep 2020 12:04 UTC

Green clouds captured on September 13, 2020 @ Abisko National Park, Sweden
© Chad Blakley
Green clouds captured on September 13, 2020 @ Abisko National Park, Sweden

Last night, auroras unexpectedly exploded over Abisko, Sweden. "It was a great display," says Chad Blakley of local tour guide service Lights Over Lapland. "But it wasn't the auroras that caught our eye." It was the clouds.

What happened? A crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured in to fuel the display. Such cracks form often during weeks around equinoxes--a pheomenon known as the "Russell-McPherron effect." With the autumnal equinox only 1 week away, more green clouds could be in the offing. Stay tuned.
 

amazon

Senior Member
New video from Ice Age Farmer. Australia is going full tyranny.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GKM_ABZrplE


Australia will run out of homegrown rice by Christmas, which may help to explain why their police are kettling people at farmers markets (which clearly doesn't help social distancing) and becoming more violent in general -- if the state expects food shortages, they must bolster the police presence and acclimate people to increased totalitarianism, particularly around food. They are preparing -- are you? Start growing food today.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
New video from Ice Age Farmer. Australia is going full tyranny.


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GKM_ABZrplE


Australia will run out of homegrown rice by Christmas, which may help to explain why their police are kettling people at farmers markets (which clearly doesn't help social distancing) and becoming more violent in general -- if the state expects food shortages, they must bolster the police presence and acclimate people to increased totalitarianism, particularly around food. They are preparing -- are you? Start growing food today.
I was just coming to post this. Thank you!

Never. NEVER. Give. Up. Your. Guns.
 

Faroe

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thats from the "Lure of the North" and they offer these month long winter expeditions trips in northern Canada you need to be fit to do this and buy some serious personal winter clothes and camp equipment.
That's what so impressed me. I've done winter camping, but the locations were Flagstaff, and Joshua Tree. There WAS snow... Anyway, the clothing and gear for these folks is completely different. Some of the terrain they covered was really tough. I could have kept up in my twenties/thirties, and am still fit at 51, but would have to work up to it.
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
That's what so impressed me. I've done winter camping, but the locations were Flagstaff, and Joshua Tree. There WAS snow... Anyway, the clothing and gear for these folks is completely different. Some of the terrain they covered was really tough. I could have kept up in my twenties/thirties, and am still fit at 51, but would have to work up to it.
I have been out in -40F, you dress for it.
 

TxGal

Day by day



A 42-SQUARE-MILE CHUNK OF ICE BREAKS OFF GREENLAND AND ALARMISTS THROW YET ANOTHER ILL-INFORMED TIZZY
SEPTEMBER 15, 2020 CAP ALLON

The Greenland Ice Sheet has turned a corner in recent years, from mass loss to mass gain. However, increasingly-desperate to cling to their hokey AGW theory, alarmists, activist-scientists, and their MSM lapdogs are forced to turn to embarrassing reports such this one on Greenland’s Spalte Glacier.

“A 42-square-mile slab of glacier has split off from an ice shelf in Greenland and is breaking into pieces,” reports businessinsider.com. “The dramatic split took place this summer, and represents a huge loss to the world’s largest remaining ice shelf.”

A huge loss?

I don’t think so.

Greenland shedding a 42-square-miles chunk of ice is a literal drop in the ocean. Today, the Ice Sheet covers a mammoth 660,200-square-miles, meaning the section that broke off amounts to just 0.0064% of the sheet’s total.

So-called scientists are calling this 0.0064% evidence of global warming: “We should be very concerned about what appears to be progressive disintegration at the Arctic’s largest remaining ice shelf,” said GEUS professor Jason Box, who’s colleague died on the ice sheet this summer during record-breaking snow/ice gains:


When an iceberg breaks off an ice sheet it is known as calving.

Calving is a form of ice ablation or ice disruption, and is caused by a glacier EXPANDING, not melting. Kelly Brunt, a glaciologist with NASA and the University of Maryland, explains: “the process of formation was a bit like a fingernail growing too long and cracking off at the end.”

This GIF (below) shows the advance of the Spalte Glacier between 2013 and 2020. Clear to see is the section being forced forward into a channel of sea water by the accumulating snow/ice behind on the main ice sheet. And then, it cracks off at the end:




Alarmists have nothing to go on, and never did — even their phrasing of the data should leave you suspicious: “The territory has lost 160 square miles — an area twice the size of Manhattan — since 1999,” reads some mainstream claptrap. But who cares how big the losses are compared to Manhattan? What matters are the percentages, and a 160-square-miles loss since 1999 is equivalent to just 0.024% of the ice sheet. The politicized “message of catastrophe” requires twisting and obfuscating though, because the straight-facts just aren’t concerning enough — alarmists are cunning little weasels.

The straight-facts reveal both poles are doing just fine:



I’m sick of the lies — lies made a thousands times worse by the climatic reality that is actually fast-barreling towards us: the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM is returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.






Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day



NASA HAS BEEN WARNING OF A GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM (GSM) FOR THE PAST DECADE
SEPTEMBER 15, 2020 CAP ALLON

NASA has been warning of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) for the past decade-or-so, and says the sun could be in a GSM phase for 10% to 30% of the time. However, the modern AGW dogma has stopped the agency short of drawing a connection between reduced solar output and “ice age” type weather events.

The sun’s output is not constant–despite what the IPCC would have you believe. Its emissions are modulated by its planets (namely conjunctions of Saturn, Jupiter, Earth and Venus) due to the interacting gravitational effects, and also by internal mechanisms.

NASA says it is able to predict sunspot numbers for the next cycle from magnetic activity of the sun hundreds of thousands of kilometres below its surface. For many years now (since at least 2010), the agency has believed that this deep activity is so weak that there may be very few sunspots in the next solar cycle (25): “Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. There is evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion”.

Sunspot activity during a Grand Solar Minimum plays a significant role in producing extreme “ice-age” type cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere while, paradoxically, at the same time causes Arctic regions to become warmer — this chimes with what we’re seeing today, and also neatly ties-in with NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Map’:



Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

The reduction in solar activity during a GSM can also increase the risks of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the latter increases these “ice-age” type cold weather events by releasing sun-shading particulates into the stratosphere. This phenomenon is thought to be caused by an influx of Cosmic Rays (allowed to enter Earth’s atmosphere via a reduction in solar wind) which in turn heat the muons in silica-rich magma.

The political agenda of the day may be preventing NASA from linking a big drop in solar activity with falling global average temperatures, but they do indicate the complexity of the issue in a recent Sun-Climate report: “Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem.”

The sun’s complex “top down” effect on climate is, basically, due to its relatively variable output of UV spectrum photons. The dynamic equilibrium and the heat of the air in the ozone layer are affected by long term relative changes in the photon emissions of the sun across the UV spectrum and the proton and electron emissions that arrive via the solar wind. When relatively low emissions of EUV –compared to UVA and UVB– occur then less ozone is formed and the temperature of the stratosphere and upper troposphere reduces.




NOAA’s Isaac Held took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it: “The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause [and] this alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies. In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.”

This is a key point.

Held is saying that the jet streams are altered due to temperature changes in the polar stratosphere and it is these altered jet streams that affect the tracks of storms and, by implication, other weather systems. As often discussed on Electroverse, low solar activity is clearly impacting the jet streams: reverting their usual tight ZONAL (east-to-west) flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL (north-to-south) flow:


This (the sun-climate) is a painfully complicated issue, and no scientists on the planet has all the answers. I certainly don’t, but what I’m offering you is a version of events far closer to the truth than today’s politically driven dogma.

Increasing CO2 is not the cause of the so-called ‘climate breakdown’ we’re experiencing — no, the truth lies in the historically low solar activity we’re currently receiving, the truth lies in the Grand Solar Minimum.


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.






Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Spring storm brings up to 15.7 inches of late snow to skifields in New Zealand


Debbie Jamieson
Stuff
Tue, 15 Sep 2020 10:41 UTC

Coronet Peak is in the midst of a three-day spring snow storm with 15cm of fresh snow on Tuesday morning.
Coronet Peak is in the midst of a three-day spring snow storm with 15cm of fresh snow on Tuesday morning.

Skiers and snowboarders booking flights to Queenstown could be in for a cracker weekend with the region in the midst of a three-day snow storm.

Treble Cone had up to 40 centimetres of fresh snow dumped at the saddle on Monday night while Coronet Peak and Cardrona skifields had 15cm.

Metservice meteorologist Lewis Ferris said more snow was forecast.


Wednesday would bring showers and snow down to 1200 metres, and cold air would drop the snow level to 700m on Thursday, he said.

The weather would clear on Friday and stay fine throughout the weekend, he said.

Cardrona and Treble Cone general manager Bridget Legnavsky said snow conditions were fantastic for this time of year.
 

TxGal

Day by day

Prolonged flood will push up vegetable prices in Bangladesh further - 260,000 hectares of farmland damaged

Fresh Plaza
Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:28 UTC

flooded farmland

The lengthy floods have severely been affecting early winter crop farming in many Bangladesh districts. This is causing fears of further hike in prices of vegetables including onions. Although the water has started receding in 37 flood-stricken districts, many crop lands are still under waist-deep water.

Parts of Rangpur, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Pabna, Natore, Sirajganj, Manikganj, Rajbari, Munshiganj, Faridpur, Madaripur, Shariatpur and Dhaka districts still have flood water, according to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE). DAE data showed a total of 260,000 hectares of land have been damaged totally by the more than two-month long flood from June 26 to August 31.

Nearly 40,000 hectares of summer vegetables worth Tk 2.45 billion (€2.45 mln) have been destroyed by the flood this year, said DAE.


Golam Maowla, an official at Agri Information Service (AIS), told the FE that farmers in flood affected districts neither could grow Aman rice nor could cultivate winter vegetables due to water logging. Farmers in Bogura, Pabna, Natore, Sirajganj, Tangail, Manikganj, Rajbari, Faridpur, Munshiganj and Dhaka districts sow seeds of early winter vegetables and onion from the last week of August to get the crops from mid-October to November.

But more than 82,000 hectares of lands are still under water in those districts where the delay might cause a decline in production. The flood has been affecting both farmers and consumers, as crop loss has sent the vegetable prices soaring owing to reduced supply in the market. Vegetable prices have risen by 60-80 per cent in the last two weeks.
http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php
 

Martinhouse

Veteran Member
TxGal, did you notice Christian's answer to this Frank Vaughan Tweet about frost?

He said "The shrinking of the growing zones as we descend into the Grand Solar Minimum. Already at Dalton levels, and declining further after Solar Cycle 25."

That last sentence felt like a sock in the gut!

Oh, yeah, then he added "learn to grow".
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ice Age Farmer 9.05 minutes

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKM_ABZrplE


I watched this yesterday and I think he is full of crap. Sometimes his videos are misleading at best, then other times they are spot on. That's just my opinion. The farmers market was not blocked because of a shortage of rice, and Austrailia has not had much success in growing rice anyway.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
I thought (maybe I'm wrong) that the effects of volcanic ash in the atmosphere had long been understood to cause massive climate change.

Or, is it just that I'm one of those people that's not on the climate change due to global warming, cow farts, etc. boat????????
Yeah, same thing... I think a massive volcanic eruption is imminent and they are trying to prepare the populace now... because there will be no denying that the massive change in climate wasn't caused by the volcanic eruption.

When that volcano in eastern Russia erupted something like eight times from 2018 to early 2020 and ejected ash some 35K feet into the atmosphere I said here and on FB that people need to get ready for some serious weather in 2020, that ash would screw stuff up for a lot of folks weatherwise.
 

BenIan

Veteran Member
Ice Age Farmer 9.05 minutes

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKM_ABZrplE


I watched this yesterday and I think he is full of crap. Sometimes his videos are misleading at best, then other times they are spot on. That's just my opinion. The farmers market was not blocked because of a shortage of rice, and Austrailia has not had much success in growing rice anyway.

God is good all the time

Judy
He specifically said in the video that the police were there to deal with COVID protesters. He then equated that to desensitizing us to seeing cops present around the food supply. He did not say they were there due to a shortage of rice. That part was based off another news story later in the video. Of all the commentators on this issue, I find Christian to be the least sensationalist.
 

TxGal

Day by day
TxGal, did you notice Christian's answer to this Frank Vaughan Tweet about frost?

He said "The shrinking of the growing zones as we descend into the Grand Solar Minimum. Already at Dalton levels, and declining further after Solar Cycle 25."

That last sentence felt like a sock in the gut!

Oh, yeah, then he added "learn to grow".
Yikes, no - I've been outside most of the day, we're getting pastures worked on since we've fallen so far behind. Thanks for the heads-up!

Below is the tweet Martinhouse was referencing above:

View: https://twitter.com/IceAgeFarmer/status/1305926411522207747
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
He specifically said in the video that the police were there to deal with COVID protesters. He then equated that to desensitizing us to seeing cops present around the food supply. He did not say they were there due to a shortage of rice. That part was based off another news story later in the video. Of all the commentators on this issue, I find Christian to be the least sensationalist.
his title was misleading. Anyway that was just my opinion. And he is not the only one with misleading titles.

Judy
 
I thought (maybe I'm wrong) that the effects of volcanic ash in the atmosphere had long been understood to cause massive climate change.

Or, is it just that I'm one of those people that's not on the climate change due to global warming, cow farts, etc. boat????????
It does. Something on the order of several to a small handful of years, maybe 5-10 for a really big one.
 
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