packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
I've lived in Iowa since 1993 and have voted in every election be it local, state, or federal, since then and have NEVER heard of this happening before!
Cruz resorts to Shaming
- Thread starter curlysue
- Start date
I've lived in Iowa since 1993 and have voted in every election be it local, state, or federal, since then and have NEVER heard of this happening before!
Meemur
Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
They picked the wrong state for this sort of trick. Cruz had picked up some Trump supporters who were tired of Donald's mouth, but this action has sent some of them back to Trump and several of them to Rubio, who I'm starting to think might take second place here.
I think tomorrow's caucus turnout is going to be huge. There are plenty of people who don't usually vote who are participating this time.
I think tomorrow's caucus turnout is going to be huge. There are plenty of people who don't usually vote who are participating this time.
No, it's going to be YUUUUUUUGE!!!
Trump will likely win, and anything that dilutes Cruz support, if he's second,
he then becomes a more distant second, enlarging even more a Trump win.
What will be interesting to watch is after NH, as bottom tier start quitting,
who those candidates will then endorse and where their supporters do go.
- Shane
he then becomes a more distant second, enlarging even more a Trump win.
What will be interesting to watch is after NH, as bottom tier start quitting,
who those candidates will then endorse and where their supporters do go.
- Shane
OK I acknowledge all this, but what is the answer now for America in your view what do you want regardless of history etc. This election is the most interesting of US history but who will it elect, a boring rino or demo or someone else?
The dems are fielding their weakest group in fifty years or more. No way in hell the felon/spy or the ancient hippie will take the WH. So whomever gets the repub nod will be the next prez.
To my mind, the Cruz "mailer" reflects the gross disrespect of the American voter that is held by the "inside the Beltway crowd". It tells me that Cruz would be no different than the historical Republican member of Congress or President, or even Republican local officials, for that matter. "The voter is a Rube" and there to be taken advantage of! Thus, they pay no attention to the desires of the voter after the election.People that I know are tired of the situation. Thus, Donald Trump holds considerable appeal.
Just thinking,
Woolly
Meemur
Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
I'm expecting Trump and Sanders to win here tomorrow. The media folks would have us believe otherwise, but there are a lot of fed up Iowans who are keeping that to themselves. They'll just say, "I'm undecided" if a stranger asks them. Bernie has a fair amount of support from people old and smart enough to know better, just because people are so annoyed with the status quo.
However, if I see one more dumb newsie who is here for the first time and says something like, "I don't see any farms," I'm going to smack him or her. Des Moines is a metro area. We live in houses and apartments, not 40 acre farms! We don't eat bacon for all three meals, either.
Oh, and I'm trusted enough not to hear, "I'm undecided." There's a fair amount of folks I work with who are supporting Trump. So I know the polls here aren't always right.
thompson
Certa Bonum Certamen
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-...lers-are-more-fraudulent-than-everyone-thinks
Ted Cruz’s Iowa Mailers Are More Fraudulent Than Everyone Thinks
By Ryan Lizza
January 31, 2016
Ted Cruz’s Presidential campaign prides itself on being data-centric and on integrating insights from political science into its tactics. In 2008, academics at Yale published an influential paper showing that one of the most effective ways to get voters to the polls was “social pressure.” Researchers found that registered voters in a 2006 primary election in Michigan voted at a higher rate if they received mailers indicating that their participation in the election would be publicized. The mailer that had the biggest impact included information about the two previous elections and whether the recipient and his or her neighbors participated or not. “We intend to mail an updated chart,” the mailer warned. “You and your neighbors will all know who voted and who did not.”
Insights from the Yale study have since been adopted by several campaigns, including MoveOn, which also faced criticism when it used the tactic to turn out voters for Barack Obama’s reëlection, in 2012. Given its obsession with political science, it’s no surprise that the Cruz campaign decided to adopt the “social pressure” techniques to turn out voters in Iowa for Monday night’s caucuses. On Saturday, Twitter came alive with pictures from voters in the state who received mailers from the Cruz campaign. At the top of the mailers, in a bold red box, are the words “VOTING VIOLATION.” Below that warning is an explanation:
A further explanation appears below the chart:
A voter mailing used by the Cruz campaign employs “social pressure” tactics that have been criticized by Iowa’s secretary of state. The secretary of state was mostly concerned that Cruz’s campaign mailers appeared partially disguised to look like an official communication from the state government. Direct mailers always push these boundaries, and Iowans are bombarded with mail, and one way to get them to open something is to make it look more official. And, in Cruz’s defense, the mailer does clearly indicate that it’s “Paid for by Cruz for President.”
After looking at several mailers posted online, I was more curious about how the Cruz campaign came up with its scores. On all the mailers I saw, every voter listed had only one of three possible scores: fifty-five per cent, sixty-five per cent, or seventy-five per cent, which translate to F, D, and C grades, respectively. Iowans take voting pretty seriously. Why was it that nobody had a higher grade?
In Iowa, although voter-registration information is free and available to the public, voter history is not. That information is maintained by the secretary of state, who licenses it to campaigns, super PACs, polling firms, and any other entity that might want it. So was the Cruz campaign accurately portraying the voter histories of Iowans? Or did it simply make up the numbers?
It seems to have made them up. Dave Peterson, a political scientist at Iowa State University who is well-acquainted with the research on “social pressure” turnout techniques, received a mailer last week. The Cruz campaign pegged his voting percentage at fifty-five per cent, which seems to be the most common score that the campaign gives out. (All of the neighbors listed on Peterson’s mailer also received a score of fifty-five per cent.)
Peterson, who is actually a Hillary Clinton supporter, moved to Iowa in 2009. He told me that he has voted in three out of the last three general elections and in two out of the last three primaries.
“There are other people listed on my mailer who live in my neighborhood that are all different ages, but everyone on this sheet has the same score of fifty-five per cent,” he said. “Some are significantly younger and would have not been eligible to vote in these elections, and others are older and have voted consistently, going back years. There is no way to get to us all having the same score.” (Peterson also spoke with Mother Jones.)
If the Cruz campaign based its score on local elections, Peterson said, the number also wouldn’t make sense, based on his participation in those elections as well. A source with access to the Iowa voter file told me that he checked several other names on Cruz mailers and that the voting histories of those individuals did not match the scores that the Cruz campaign assigned them in the mailer.
A mailer template used by the Rubio campaign also seeks to mobilize voters via “social pressure.” I e-mailed Catherine Frazier, a spokeswoman for the Cruz campaign, and asked her what the campaign’s methodology was for arriving at its voting scores and whether the scores were fraudulent. “This was a mailer designed from public information and modeled on past successful mailers used by the Iowa GOP to turn out voters, so that we can have as high of a turnout as possible on caucus day,” she said. “I’ll leave it at that.” She did not explain the methodology used, nor did she answer my question about whether the numbers were made up.
The political scientist Lynn Vavreck, the co-author of “The Gamble,” a book the Cruz campaign has publicly stated it has studied for its strategic insights, said there was a major difference between the 2008 study in Michigan and what Cruz is doing in Iowa. “In the political-science work published in the American Political Science Review,” she said, “the mailing listed the elections (three of them) in which voters’ histories were being observed—and listed whether the secretary of state recorded that the voter participated that year. So it was more transparent than the Cruz mailer, which implied that it used public records but delivered voters letter grades, which are not part of the official file.”
It’s unclear how many Iowans received the Cruz mailers. Ideally, the mailers would go to potential caucus-goers who are leaning toward the Texas senator and just need some additional incentive to participate. In at least one case, that backfired. Independent Journal Review reported that one Iowan who received the Cruz mailer will now caucus for Marco Rubio.
Rubio’s campaign also sent out a mailer that employs social pressure to induce participation in the caucuses, but, notably, the Rubio campaign did not mention the names of the target voter’s neighbors.
The Cruz mailers have been widely condemned by Iowans. “I just wonder how many of these went out to people who might seriously believe they committed a violation or were embarrassed that their neighbors might know about their alleged voting record,” Braddock Massey, a Rubio supporter who lives in West Des Moines and received one of the mailers, said.
Donna Holstein, who was listed on one of them, was upset to learn that she had been given a failing grade and that her neighbors might be told whether she participates in the caucus. She told me that she has voted consistently but that she can’t this time because of a disability.
“I’m crippled, so I can’t go to the caucus,” Holstein said. She was not happy about being shamed in front of her neighbors. “That’s what you call a bully,” she said about Cruz’s tactics. “I wish he would quit.”
Ted Cruz’s Iowa Mailers Are More Fraudulent Than Everyone Thinks
By Ryan Lizza
January 31, 2016
Ted Cruz’s Presidential campaign prides itself on being data-centric and on integrating insights from political science into its tactics. In 2008, academics at Yale published an influential paper showing that one of the most effective ways to get voters to the polls was “social pressure.” Researchers found that registered voters in a 2006 primary election in Michigan voted at a higher rate if they received mailers indicating that their participation in the election would be publicized. The mailer that had the biggest impact included information about the two previous elections and whether the recipient and his or her neighbors participated or not. “We intend to mail an updated chart,” the mailer warned. “You and your neighbors will all know who voted and who did not.”
Insights from the Yale study have since been adopted by several campaigns, including MoveOn, which also faced criticism when it used the tactic to turn out voters for Barack Obama’s reëlection, in 2012. Given its obsession with political science, it’s no surprise that the Cruz campaign decided to adopt the “social pressure” techniques to turn out voters in Iowa for Monday night’s caucuses. On Saturday, Twitter came alive with pictures from voters in the state who received mailers from the Cruz campaign. At the top of the mailers, in a bold red box, are the words “VOTING VIOLATION.” Below that warning is an explanation:
You are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area. Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors’ are public record. Their scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well. CAUCUS ON MONDAY TO IMPROVE YOUR SCORE and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well. A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday’s caucuses.
Below that, a chart appears with the names of the recipient of the mailing as well as his neighbors and their voting “grade” and “score.”
A further explanation appears below the chart:
Voter registration and voter history records are public records distributed by the Iowa Secretary of State and/or county election clerks. This data is not available for use for commercial purposes – use is limited by law. Scores reflect participation in recent elections. [Emphasis added.]
After seeing the mailers, Iowa’s secretary of state, Paul Pate, issued a statement condemning Cruz’s tactic:
“Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for President campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law. Accusing citizens of Iowa of a “voting violation” based on Iowa Caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act. There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. Any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and I believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses.
Additionally, the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office never “grades” voters. Nor does the Secretary of State maintain records related to Iowa Caucus participation. Caucuses are organized and directed by the state political parties, not the Secretary of State, nor local elections officials. Also, the Iowa Secretary of State does not “distribute” voter records. They are available for purchase for political purposes only, under Iowa Code.”
On Saturday night, Cruz responded. “I will apologize to no one for using every tool we can to encourage Iowa voters to come out and vote,” he told reporters during a campaign stop in Sioux City.Additionally, the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office never “grades” voters. Nor does the Secretary of State maintain records related to Iowa Caucus participation. Caucuses are organized and directed by the state political parties, not the Secretary of State, nor local elections officials. Also, the Iowa Secretary of State does not “distribute” voter records. They are available for purchase for political purposes only, under Iowa Code.”
After looking at several mailers posted online, I was more curious about how the Cruz campaign came up with its scores. On all the mailers I saw, every voter listed had only one of three possible scores: fifty-five per cent, sixty-five per cent, or seventy-five per cent, which translate to F, D, and C grades, respectively. Iowans take voting pretty seriously. Why was it that nobody had a higher grade?
In Iowa, although voter-registration information is free and available to the public, voter history is not. That information is maintained by the secretary of state, who licenses it to campaigns, super PACs, polling firms, and any other entity that might want it. So was the Cruz campaign accurately portraying the voter histories of Iowans? Or did it simply make up the numbers?
It seems to have made them up. Dave Peterson, a political scientist at Iowa State University who is well-acquainted with the research on “social pressure” turnout techniques, received a mailer last week. The Cruz campaign pegged his voting percentage at fifty-five per cent, which seems to be the most common score that the campaign gives out. (All of the neighbors listed on Peterson’s mailer also received a score of fifty-five per cent.)
Peterson, who is actually a Hillary Clinton supporter, moved to Iowa in 2009. He told me that he has voted in three out of the last three general elections and in two out of the last three primaries.
“There are other people listed on my mailer who live in my neighborhood that are all different ages, but everyone on this sheet has the same score of fifty-five per cent,” he said. “Some are significantly younger and would have not been eligible to vote in these elections, and others are older and have voted consistently, going back years. There is no way to get to us all having the same score.” (Peterson also spoke with Mother Jones.)
If the Cruz campaign based its score on local elections, Peterson said, the number also wouldn’t make sense, based on his participation in those elections as well. A source with access to the Iowa voter file told me that he checked several other names on Cruz mailers and that the voting histories of those individuals did not match the scores that the Cruz campaign assigned them in the mailer.
The political scientist Lynn Vavreck, the co-author of “The Gamble,” a book the Cruz campaign has publicly stated it has studied for its strategic insights, said there was a major difference between the 2008 study in Michigan and what Cruz is doing in Iowa. “In the political-science work published in the American Political Science Review,” she said, “the mailing listed the elections (three of them) in which voters’ histories were being observed—and listed whether the secretary of state recorded that the voter participated that year. So it was more transparent than the Cruz mailer, which implied that it used public records but delivered voters letter grades, which are not part of the official file.”
It’s unclear how many Iowans received the Cruz mailers. Ideally, the mailers would go to potential caucus-goers who are leaning toward the Texas senator and just need some additional incentive to participate. In at least one case, that backfired. Independent Journal Review reported that one Iowan who received the Cruz mailer will now caucus for Marco Rubio.
Rubio’s campaign also sent out a mailer that employs social pressure to induce participation in the caucuses, but, notably, the Rubio campaign did not mention the names of the target voter’s neighbors.
The Cruz mailers have been widely condemned by Iowans. “I just wonder how many of these went out to people who might seriously believe they committed a violation or were embarrassed that their neighbors might know about their alleged voting record,” Braddock Massey, a Rubio supporter who lives in West Des Moines and received one of the mailers, said.
Donna Holstein, who was listed on one of them, was upset to learn that she had been given a failing grade and that her neighbors might be told whether she participates in the caucus. She told me that she has voted consistently but that she can’t this time because of a disability.
“I’m crippled, so I can’t go to the caucus,” Holstein said. She was not happy about being shamed in front of her neighbors. “That’s what you call a bully,” she said about Cruz’s tactics. “I wish he would quit.”
So, on top of everything else, he just MADE UP THE NUMBERS?!!
You know, this reminds me of some of the REALLY cheesey, sleazy ads that show up in our mailbox from time to time, trying to "scare" people into signing up for some sketchy (or downright crooked) "service".
Slimy... yep, my gut WAS right all along.
Summerthyme
You know, this reminds me of some of the REALLY cheesey, sleazy ads that show up in our mailbox from time to time, trying to "scare" people into signing up for some sketchy (or downright crooked) "service".
Slimy... yep, my gut WAS right all along.
Summerthyme
byronandkathy2003
Veteran Member
my vote is my business if i want you to know i will tell you..
but when nut jobs like cruz think it is their business to tell you then they can kiss my
He pooped in his mess kit with this one.
This is the type of politics that people are pissed about.
I wonder if there will be any way to quantify the damage he did?
This is the type of politics that people are pissed about.
I wonder if there will be any way to quantify the damage he did?
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Like I said a few pages up - I got a similar mailer in FL a few years ago and the score was wrong for me as well. I don't remember if my neighbors names were on it - I remember I was annoyed and just threw it out. And didn't vote for whoever sent it.
This has to be one ad agency that uses this mailer and the Cruz campaign hired them in Iowa. This is not a one-off and it's not exclusive to Cruz. But is shows a lot about any candidate's judgment who hires them and uses them. Let's see if he uses them in NH and SC - that will show whether or not he learned anything from this.
HD
This has to be one ad agency that uses this mailer and the Cruz campaign hired them in Iowa. This is not a one-off and it's not exclusive to Cruz. But is shows a lot about any candidate's judgment who hires them and uses them. Let's see if he uses them in NH and SC - that will show whether or not he learned anything from this.
HD