DISASTER China's Three Gorge Dam in Danger
- Thread starter Doomer Doug
- Start date
Ractivist
Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
What a comment, refer to your previous looong thread talking to little g gods........1741.
You are a hoot. You believe in lots of gods...ignoring the one true God. You are who you are...till u wise up, maybe. It is what it is.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Yes it was in use... see below...
When? What's the date of your picture?
I have NOT seen that chute in use before today--and I have been watching the dam, and this thread, CLOSELY, for over a month.
Also (not directed at you, Dannyboy) I'm getting rather tired of the snide comments of late-comers, who expect us to catch them up in 5 seconds on material those of us who've watched this since the beginning have been discussing for weeks.
Here's a screen-shot I just took.
Something VERY weird is going on and I'd like to hear the comments of the SERIOUS watchers of the dam (Melodi, Doomer Doug, BW -- who I believe has some hydor-engineering experience, etc.) about WHAT this may mean.
We know new heavy rains have been going on upstream of the dam since last week, and should be soon (if not already) reaching the dam.
We know the water level at the back of the dam was at full-pool---175 meters---already the other day.
We know (because Chinese officials finally admitted it) that cavitation has been going on.
We know they've (up to now) been releasing as much water as the dam could stand (and maybe MORE than it could stand) for literally WEEKS---at the risk of flooding cities and farmland downstream---apparently in an effort to keep the dam from being overwhelmed by the descending floodwaters from upstream.
We know we were seeing what appeared to be large pieces of something being ejected from the dam. Some dismissed this as a video glitch--but I find it"interesting" that after it became VERY noticeable that this was happening, suddenly ALL the video feeds went dark, and when they came back up---voila! A new camera angle--zoomed out MUCH farther away---and suddently they are apparently LIMITING the amount of water being released---even though an influx of MORE water is coming from upstream.
And now this--today.
Only two of the six floodgates at the dam itself are open---
And they have opened full tilt some kind of chute that extends FAR out into the area below the dam---
And we have not seen water being released form this area before.
We've seen it being allowed to flow down the locks (before the CCP shut down those pictures and wouldn't let us see them); We've seen them allowing some water-flow down the vertical chutes to each side of the floodgates (and some of the more knowledgeable members here said those were like "relief" chutes that were used to divert overflow when the water is very high on the back side--but --
we have NOT seen this new chute, in any pictures I've seen of the dam to date, putting out water, and water at the rate of the floodgates.
Which begs the question:
1. Why would they CLOSE MORE floodgates, limiting them down to (apparently) only 2---when they've had all 6 going full-tilt for well over a month?
2. Why would they open FEWER floodgates when MORE water is on the way?
3. Why would they open (full-tilt) this new floodgate or chute, while CLOSING the main floodgates?
The only logical explanation I can think of is---
the Dam is (as the CCP hinted at about two weeks ago) seriously damaged--
so even though the waters are rising, they've had to CLOSE floodgates.
Yet, to prevent dam collapse, they're trying to release water another way--thus the new "chute" or whatever it is.
Your thoughts, seasoned watchers of 3GD?
It looks like something to do with the powerhouse, perhaps.
Found this techno-paper on that structure.
www.sciencedirect.com
Found this techno-paper on that structure.
Key Technologies of the Hydraulic Structures of the Three Gorges Project
To date, the Three Gorges Project is the largest hydro junction in the world. It is the key project for the integrated water resource management and d…
www.sciencedirect.com
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DannyBoy
Veteran Member
Evidently BDanon just posted something relative to the dam... it is being undercut by water flow... divers have seen it, and Russian spies are calling home with info... that is how he knew. (He is evidently pretty tight with some Russian folks) BD said, it is likely that Wuhan evacuation will begin within 48 hours...
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DannyBoy
Veteran Member
Countrymouse said...
"Which begs the question:
1. Why would they CLOSE MORE floodgates, limiting them down to (apparently) only 2---when they've had all 6 going full-tilt for well over a month?
2. Why would they open FEWER floodgates when MORE water is on the way?
3. Why would they open (full-tilt) this new floodgate or chute, while CLOSING the main floodgates?"
BDanons post would explain number 2 and 3... might be they are trying to go easy on the bottom of the river at some certain point.
"Which begs the question:
1. Why would they CLOSE MORE floodgates, limiting them down to (apparently) only 2---when they've had all 6 going full-tilt for well over a month?
2. Why would they open FEWER floodgates when MORE water is on the way?
3. Why would they open (full-tilt) this new floodgate or chute, while CLOSING the main floodgates?"
BDanons post would explain number 2 and 3... might be they are trying to go easy on the bottom of the river at some certain point.
Ractivist
Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
Been in constant touch with this thread, daily. Nice summation country mouse. It is the biggest disaster of all time, short of some volcanoes and floods of yesteryear.....etc. in the modern age, it will top the chart in domino effect. Much like covid.... there is a tie here. War, being the common denominator. Round three is coming. Lights out maybe....shrooms...
View: https://twitter.com/owengprescott/status/1290937715647746048
From 30, Jun.
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
From 30, Jun.
Yangtze Dams Spill Water
As water levels rise from excessive monsoon rainfall, dam operators discharge water through spillway gates.
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Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
It looks like something to do with the powerhouse, perhaps.
Found this techno-paper on that structure.
Key Technologies of the Hydraulic Structures of the Three Gorges Project
To date, the Three Gorges Project is the largest hydro junction in the world. It is the key project for the integrated water resource management and d…
Everyone has been telling me from the beginning that the powerhouse was on the other side of the dam--the one closest to you (the viewer) in perspective when looking at the side view--the building on the left, that a crane was at early-on in this saga.
The far side---farthest from the viewer in perspective, on the side-angle view, was where the locks were, for shipping to go through---that I have NOT seen operative since this began.
There are several good videos of those locks early-on in the thread, one showing how they were made and another showing them in action lifting and lowering ships.
There are powerhouses on both sides.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
That's what I thought, too. CCP already admitting some cavitation (and if they are ADMItting "some" cavitation, it means there is a LOT of it)--so maybe they're trying to go easy on the flood-gates and flood-gate area, while still letting out water.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Didn't know that. Thanks.---But is this water coming out near / from the locks, do you think?
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Are you able to provide a link, or perhaps screen-shoot and paste what he's reporting? By "undercut"--does he mean the dam has literally undermined its own foundation--and that water is now flowing UNDER the dam?
Dunno
Posted some pics with it being previously utilized.
Can't find anything that actually says what it is, tho.
"They are not doing any repairs, apparently some divers were sucked under the Dam. No report on them. Dam is cooked. They will try a bit more. Seems the only hope is to empty the Dam and let it collapse but that seems just as bad as letting it just blow. Heard they are already blaming others for the disaster that is coming. Look these folks were dealt a bad hand and other things are in play also. The Dam will collapse."
"The Country will be destroyed. "
8/5/20(Wed)18:18
paulfurber.net
"The Country will be destroyed. "
8/5/20(Wed)18:18
The BigDickAnon Post Archive
paulfurber.net
Doc1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I'm a former commercial diver and can tell you that any water current capable of undermining that dam would be much, much stronger than any diver could deal with. Also, the water inlets would present an extreme danger to any diver in the water. Lastly, it looks to me like that water has zero visibility or, what we call "black water." I don't think any divers saw anything there.
Best
Doc
DannyBoy
Veteran Member
From the Paul Furber Archive... BDanon...
Internally the Dam is in bad shape. Numerous fractures and cave ins are occurring daily. Fear is that the dam could collapse because they are experiencing water movement beneath the Dam that is exiting beneath the surface on the release side. Several divers have found massive swells of water escaping and the water, they suspect, is carving out a trough beneath the Dam that is very open to a cave in fairly soon, within a week. Several Russian spy's buried in the Dam`s operations have reported to Russian intelligence the Chinese are initiating plans to begin massive evacuations of the Wuhan and other areas within the next 48 hours. Any type of seismic activity of significance could collapse the Dam.
Internally the Dam is in bad shape. Numerous fractures and cave ins are occurring daily. Fear is that the dam could collapse because they are experiencing water movement beneath the Dam that is exiting beneath the surface on the release side. Several divers have found massive swells of water escaping and the water, they suspect, is carving out a trough beneath the Dam that is very open to a cave in fairly soon, within a week. Several Russian spy's buried in the Dam`s operations have reported to Russian intelligence the Chinese are initiating plans to begin massive evacuations of the Wuhan and other areas within the next 48 hours. Any type of seismic activity of significance could collapse the Dam.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
"They are not doing any repairs, apparently some divers were sucked under the Dam. No report on them. Dam is cooked. They will try a bit more. Seems the only hope is to empty the Dam and let it collapse but that seems just as bad as letting it just blow. Heard they are already blaming others for the disaster that is coming. Look these folks were dealt a bad hand and other things are in play also. The Dam will collapse."
"The Country will be destroyed. "
8/5/20(Wed)18:18
The BigDickAnon Post Archive
Thanks.
But---I'm confused---why would they need DIVERS to look under the dam? Couldn't they just lower some kind of camera or cable to see what is going on? (no I am not techy)
DannyBoy
Veteran Member
Unless they did not come back up... that is what his last post on the subject says, they got sucked under... from the upside.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Well that would certainly explain why they're turning off floodgates---they don't need them any more......
(and don't want to dig out any MORE of the earth under the dam....)
DragonBurrow
Contributing Member
I just watched a whole thing on the lock the other day. On the far side from us there is a building that kind of looks like a high rise apartment building. That is actually the lock itself. It works like a boat elevator inside there.
ETA: I know this has been covered a lot just wanted to throw it out for the refresher. If people want more info YouTube has tons of videos on the lock itself.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Everybody remember one important point.
Just before they froze / turned off / reset the view on ALL the live feeds (about a week ago, now, right?)---
BEFORE, the time on the live stream in China was EXACTLY 12 hours ahead of my time here in GA---to the minute.
AFTER---they've set the "official video" (the one at 3gd.mooo) to one minute delay, and the secondary stream on You Tube to a two minute delay.
Gives the CCP TIME TO TURN THEM OFF when this sucker begins to blow.
Right now it's 12:43 am here in GA on Eastern Daylight Time.
The 3gd.mooo video is 12:44 PM.
Strange to think that this whole mess is---essentially--- right under my feet, about 7926 miles away....
Just before they froze / turned off / reset the view on ALL the live feeds (about a week ago, now, right?)---
BEFORE, the time on the live stream in China was EXACTLY 12 hours ahead of my time here in GA---to the minute.
AFTER---they've set the "official video" (the one at 3gd.mooo) to one minute delay, and the secondary stream on You Tube to a two minute delay.
Gives the CCP TIME TO TURN THEM OFF when this sucker begins to blow.
Right now it's 12:43 am here in GA on Eastern Daylight Time.
The 3gd.mooo video is 12:44 PM.
Strange to think that this whole mess is---essentially--- right under my feet, about 7926 miles away....
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Hey--looks to me like they JUST NOW opened more floodgates--in the center--anyone confirm?
(or maybe just increased the flow in the gates that are open)
(or maybe just increased the flow in the gates that are open)
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DannyBoy
Veteran Member
They might also be turning of flood gates because of what Doc was talking about... that gate area is probably a pushing a thousand feet long... they might have turned off one end of the area so a diver could drop down on one end and not have so much turbulence.
You would not catch me going down there while one of those gates is open though... who knows what kind of cross currents are under there. But need to remember this is China... if you don't go down, you get shot. Or, you are fired and we find other "volunteers".
DragonBurrow
Contributing Member
Did some digging and I have a theory.
This piece of the dam is officially the “left guide wall”.
Apparently it is prone to picking up vibration from the dam and the power plant itself according to this study. A lot of it is beyond me and I won’t pretend otherwise.
It all leads to the question are they changing things up to reduce vibration for some reason OR are they trying to disguise vibration readings from the sensors on the guide wall possibly?
No solid answers but maybe a direction our building experts could help address.
Analysis for the Vibration Mechanism of the Spillway Guide Wall Considering the Associated-Forced Coupled Vibration
During the flood discharge in large-scale hydraulic engineering projects, intense flow-induced vibrations may occur in hydraulic gates, gate piers, spillway guide walls, etc. Furthermore, the vibration mechanism is complicated. For the spillway guide wall, existing studies on the vibration...
www.mdpi.com
Not sure I am buying the 48 hour evacuation of Wuhan. This is the CCP and an evacuation of Wuhan would assume they know for a certainty there will be a collapse and also that they are more concerned with the lives of the people than the embarrassment of admitting the ‘great’ dam is in danger.
I think they know more than us armchair QB’s know in the US but I think they know a lot less of the status of the dam than they will ever let on.
Natural forces are very complex (that is why local weather becomes more of a estimate out more than a couple days) and this is rewriting the books on fluid dynamics because the scale is so large.
So the world and the Chinese are learning as they go, but the process is hindered by the CCP politics that drive people in the loop to hide bad information from those higher up. The decisions are made by those higher up but the always have incomplete or wrong information from the only send good news up.
This same thing happens at any large business as middle managers try to protect themselves by keeping bad news from the boss that may be a shoot the messenger type. Now multiply corporate politics to a whole freakin country, and throw a good dose of normalcy bias and you have they will likely know and react to the dam failing if and when it does imho.
I think they know more than us armchair QB’s know in the US but I think they know a lot less of the status of the dam than they will ever let on.
Natural forces are very complex (that is why local weather becomes more of a estimate out more than a couple days) and this is rewriting the books on fluid dynamics because the scale is so large.
So the world and the Chinese are learning as they go, but the process is hindered by the CCP politics that drive people in the loop to hide bad information from those higher up. The decisions are made by those higher up but the always have incomplete or wrong information from the only send good news up.
This same thing happens at any large business as middle managers try to protect themselves by keeping bad news from the boss that may be a shoot the messenger type. Now multiply corporate politics to a whole freakin country, and throw a good dose of normalcy bias and you have they will likely know and react to the dam failing if and when it does imho.
Kayak
Adrenaline Junkie
There are two powerhouses, one on each end of the spillways in the middle. I'm not sure where the water is ejected after it spins the turbines, but it's possible it comes out that jet.
There is an actual lock in the far upper part of the pic, and then a "ship elevator" just above the dam in the pic (before the earthen part on the right. Both have been used to eject water a few times, which is scary because neither was designed for that.
There is an actual lock in the far upper part of the pic, and then a "ship elevator" just above the dam in the pic (before the earthen part on the right. Both have been used to eject water a few times, which is scary because neither was designed for that.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Just a note, I have ZERO engineering experience (I can't even fold a letter properly) but I live with an engineer who builds the pumps that help fill anything from tiny water systems to potentially the great dams; but mostly they work on municipal water systems.
And, I learned a lot from people here both during the Oroville Dam Crises which came within a hair's breadth of being one of the worst man-caused disasters in the history of the United States, the fact that brave men and women worked 24/7 to make sure it didn't happen does not mean it was a "nothing burger," it was more "on a wing and a prayer."
But Oroville (as I understood it) had only ONE spillway that was an issue, without a working spillway the dam could not discharge enough water and came close to collapse.
Repair, divert, create a new emergency spillway and the crises were diverted or at least delayed until real repairs could be made.
Three Gorges Dam's problems are on the magnitude of a the size of orange vs. a grape; the very foundations of the dam are or have been hallowed out, all the spillways are in trouble and the cement now has holes in it that can't be repaired.
When my engineer housemate read that the CCP admitted the "cavitization" (aka holes in the cement) while reading over my shoulder she stopped speculating, turned white and wouldn't say anymore.
Her face kind of said it all and that was a least two weeks ago.
Your summary of the current situations is highly accurate as far as I can tell but as I said, I have zero personal understanding of these matters except that I listen to people who DO have it and then do my best to report back what they say.
Any and all mistakes are usually mine trying to translate engineer speak into my understanding of English.
And, I learned a lot from people here both during the Oroville Dam Crises which came within a hair's breadth of being one of the worst man-caused disasters in the history of the United States, the fact that brave men and women worked 24/7 to make sure it didn't happen does not mean it was a "nothing burger," it was more "on a wing and a prayer."
But Oroville (as I understood it) had only ONE spillway that was an issue, without a working spillway the dam could not discharge enough water and came close to collapse.
Repair, divert, create a new emergency spillway and the crises were diverted or at least delayed until real repairs could be made.
Three Gorges Dam's problems are on the magnitude of a the size of orange vs. a grape; the very foundations of the dam are or have been hallowed out, all the spillways are in trouble and the cement now has holes in it that can't be repaired.
When my engineer housemate read that the CCP admitted the "cavitization" (aka holes in the cement) while reading over my shoulder she stopped speculating, turned white and wouldn't say anymore.
Her face kind of said it all and that was a least two weeks ago.
Your summary of the current situations is highly accurate as far as I can tell but as I said, I have zero personal understanding of these matters except that I listen to people who DO have it and then do my best to report back what they say.
Any and all mistakes are usually mine trying to translate engineer speak into my understanding of English.
bw
Fringe Ranger
We have said from the start that there are two powerhouses, one on each side of the floodgates. The ship lift and the locks are on the far side in the streaming view we have been watching. We have seen whitewater coming from the ship lift and the lock area, which says they've been releasing water through there as well. The aerial shot from India shows the whitewater.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Cavitation and scour are two different things. Cavitation is the erosion of a hard surface under the forces generated by high speed water. It happens in concrete and steel conduits such as in the dam, and to surfaces like ship propellers or turbine blades. Scour is the erosion of softer material from turbulence around structures. It can undercut the foundations of bridges. See Schoharie Creek Bridge collapse - Wikipedia If they're worried about water under the dam, or undercutting from the discharge area, they're talking about scour.
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bw
Fringe Ranger
Remember, the failure of a diver to return is also information.
MinnesotaSmith
Membership Revoked
Sedimentary geologist kicking in here. Given even moderate water velocity, particularly if turbulent*, water can be VERY powerful at eroding sediments and even rock in a stream that you would think would be essentially immune to it. Exhibit A: the Grand Canyon -- it's in ROCK. Do NOT underestimate what a dam with EITHER poor design OR substandard materials can be hit with during times of more powerful water inflow.
*Energy of water moving by laminar, or parallel, flow is proportional to its velocity; the mechanical energy of water moving turbulently is very roughly the SQUARE of its velocity.
Bubble Head
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Divers would not see their hand in front of their face much less be able to make it back to the surface. I would not take reports from divers as a truthful statement. I do believe the damn is undercutting and cavitation with nothing the Chi-Com's can do. The time and hour of collapse is unknown be disaster is certain. They may not call for evacuation downstream. That would be the Chi-Com way.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Would it be reasonable to surmise that any diver who actually went underwater had a firm grip on the ladder or whatever, waited just under the surface for a few minutes, and reappeared and gave whatever report he'd picked up on as being the desired result?