WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
We're not ready for the Big One

A war over #Taiwan is a real possibility, and the #US is not prepared.

In a post last week, I hypothesized that the waning of American deterrence is a big reason the world seems to be slipping into a more warlike, anarchic state. I am not an expert in foreign policy, but Paul Poast and Hal Brands both are, and they offered the same hypothesis.

In particular, I think many Americans fail to realize the extent to which the war between Israel and Hamas is in part an extension of a larger great-power struggle, pitting the Russia-Iran-China axis against the U.S. and its allies. This “New Axis”, as I’ve called it, is on the march, emboldened by the growth of Chinese economic power and by America’s internal division and shriveled defense-industrial base.

But the final shoe has yet to drop. Russia’s dysfunction has bogged it down in Ukraine, and Iran’s military power is limited, so these wars are unlikely to spread and lay waste to whole regions. Nor will the global economy be upended, since Russia and Iran are both petrostates. The real cataclysmic event will be a war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan.

If this ends up taking us by surprise, we’ll have only ourselves to blame. Xi Jinping constantly says he’s preparing China for war. Chinese state media is airing programsabout how an attack on Taiwan would proceed, and the Chinese military has released an animation depicting an attack plan. China’s near-constant air and naval exercises around Taiwan look an awful lot like practice. And the country’s economic slowdown just gives it a further incentive for military adventures.

I don’t think most regular Americans are mentally prepared for a U.S.-China war, or have thought deeply about what it would entail. Most of us — myself included — were surprised by Putin’s willingness to invade Ukraine, and by the ferocity and escalation potential of the Israel-Hamas war. This doesn’t seem atypical; when I read personal accounts of World War 2, I’m always astonished by how the narrators discounted the possibility of America entering the war all the way up until they minute the bombs started falling on Pearl Harbor.

But the Roosevelt administration anticipated the war years in advance, and took action to prepare. Similarly, whether a war with China eventually comes or not — and I fervently hope it will never come — we ought to start preparing now. The wars that have erupted in Europe and the Middle East should serve as a warning, which we ignore at our grave peril. We shouldn’t concentrate so much on the wars that are happening today that we forget to think about the war that could happen tomorrow.

Anyway, I’ll talk about how I think business and government can prepare, but first I think I should address the skepticism I commonly encounter when I warn people about the chances of this war actually happening.

“But America wouldn’t really go to war with China over Taiwan…would we?”

My favorite character in Lord of the Rings was always Gandalf — not just because he’s a melodramatic, bumbling old wizard who somehow always comes through when the chips are down, but because he sees danger coming that others miss. One of the most memorable scenes in The Two Towers is when Gandalf is telling King Theoden that Saruman’s armies are about to sweep down and wipe him out. Theoden’s traitorous adviser, Wormtongue, scoffs at Gandalf’s warnings, but eventually Gandalf manages to convince Theoden that the danger is real. I was always impressed that Gandalf managed to succeed where Cassandra failed.

Sometimes when I talk to Americans, especially in the tech industry, about a war over Taiwan, I feel a little of the frustration Gandalf must have felt. I often encounter a look of horrified disbelief, as people ask me: “We wouldn’t really go to war over Taiwan, would we?”

But as comforting as it might be to imagine America sitting serenely to the side while people in Asia fight their wars, this is highly unlikely to happen. The reason is not that TSMC is essential to the global semiconductor supply chain, or really anything intrinsic to Taiwan itself. It’s that if China attacks Taiwan, it’ll probably attack U.S. bases first.
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Matt Wallace
@MattWallace888

BREAKING NEWS: China Sides With Hamas and Calls For Israel To Back Down Saying "Israel's actions have gone beyond self-defense” ⚠️

China’s public position here indicates they currently see the U.S. as extremely weak with Joe Biden as president.

4 days ago China sent fighter jets to monitor and warn a U.S. Navy patrol aircraft that flew through the Taiwan Strait.

They are aggressively setting the stage for an invasion of Taiwan before Joe Biden is removed from office in 2024. If they invade, WW3 will be unofficially underway and de-escalation will become an extremely difficult task. All hell may break loose!

By the time Joe Biden’s reign is over, it may go down as the most destructive/damaging 4-year period in modern history.

(Video shows recent China military drills near Taiwan)
 
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PLA lieutenant general says Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be 'just and legitimate war'​


Taiwan News


  1. Home
  2. Politics

Chinese commander claims war will be for 'reunification,' and to 'crush foreign interference'​


[IMG alt="Lieutenant General He Lei. (CGTN screenshot)
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2023/10/30/1698641412-653f360442303.jpg[/IMG]

Lieutenant General He Lei. (CGTN screenshot)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A People's Liberation Army (PLA) lieutenant general on Sunday (Oct. 29) was cited by Chinese state-run media as saying that when China invades Taiwan, it will be a "just and legitimate war" and a campaign to "crush foreign interference."

China's state-owned media the Global Times on Sunday released excerpts from an interview with Lieutenant General He Lei (何雷) at the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, which was notably lacking a defense minister since the sacking of Li Shangfu (李尚福). During the symposium, Li delivered a talk on the modern-day applications of Sun Tzu's "The Art of War."

Li said that the first of the five constant factors presented in the book is Moral Law, which he said refers to politics. Li said that "a just cause grains great support, an unjust one gains little," and cited Sun Tzu as saying that when soldiers battle for justice, "He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks."

The lieutenant general said that China is the sole member of the U.N. Security Council that has not accomplished full "national reunification." He claimed that Taiwan is an "inseparable" part of China and "must and will be unified."

Indicating the inevitability of a PLA invasion of Taiwan, Li said, "Once the Chinese government is forced to use force to resolve the Taiwan question, it will be a war for reunification, a just and legitimate war supported and participated in by the Chinese people, and a war to crush foreign interference." He added that during the invasion, "the PLA will live up to the expectations and trust of the Party and the people, fight bravely under a unified command, and achieve complete reunification of the motherland with the least casualties, minimal losses, and lowest cost, winning a great victory in the final battle of the PLA’s war and achieving complete national reunification."

He alleged that responsibility for "provoking" the invasion lies with Taiwan's leaders, secessionist forces, and external forces. Li warned that after the invasion is complete, Beijing will "bring the stubborn 'Taiwan independence' secessionist elements to justice and punish them severely."

Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) has repeatedly maintained that Beijing has the right to use force to annex Taiwan. During a speech delivered at the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress in 2022, Xi said, "We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary," per Nikkei Asia.
〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕 〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕〔錯誤字元無法儲存〕 "The United States must resolutely correct any behavior that interferes with China’s internal affairs and undermines China's core interests, especially when it comes to the Taiwan question and the South China Sea issue." - Lieutenant General He Lei pic.twitter.com/IAcoOCqh1O
— World Observer (@WorldObserver0) October 29, 2023
Click to expand...



www.taiwannews.com.tw

PLA lieutenant general says Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be 'just and legitimate war' | Taiwan News | 2023-10-30 12:51:00

Chinese commander claims war will be for 'reunification,' and to 'crush foreign interference' | 2023-10-30 12:51:00
www.taiwannews.com.tw www.taiwannews.com.tw
 
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The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
9–12 minutes

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen (C) poses for photographs with combat engineer troops during a visit in Chiayi county on March 25, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen has made its alliance with the US more obvious

When US President Joe Biden recently signed off on a $80m grant to Taiwan for the purchase of American military equipment, China said it "deplores and opposes" what Washington had done.

To the casual observer it didn't appear a steep sum. It was less than the cost of a single modern fighter jet. Taiwan already has on order more than $14bn worth of US military equipment. Does a miserly $80m more matter?

While fury is Beijing's default response to any military support for Taiwan, this time something was different.

The $80m is not a loan. It comes from American taxpayers. For the first time in more than 40 years, America is using its own money to send weapons to a place it officially doesn't recognise. This is happening under a programme called foreign military finance (FMF).

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, FMF has been used to send around $4bn of military aid to Kyiv. It has been used to send billions more to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Egypt and so on. But until now it has only ever been given to countries or organisations recognised by the United Nations. Taiwan is not.

After the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, it continued to sell weapons to the island under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act. The key was to sell just enough weapons so Taiwan could defend itself against possible Chinese attack, but not so many that they would destabilise relations between Washington and Beijing. For decades, the US has relied on this so-called strategic ambiguity to do business with China, while remaining Taiwan's staunchest ally.

But in the last decade the military balance across the Taiwan Strait has tipped dramatically in China's favour. The old formula no longer works. Washington insists its policy has not changed but, in crucial ways, it has. The US State Department has been quick to deny FMF implies any recognition of Taiwan. But in Taipei it's apparent that America is redefining its relationship with the island, especially so given the urgency with which Washington is pushing Taiwan to re-arm. And Taiwan, which is outmatched by China, needs the help.

"The US is emphasising the desperate need to improve our military capacity. It is sending a clear message of strategic clarity to Beijing that we stand together," says Wang Ting-yu, a ruling party legislator with close ties to Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, and to US Congressional chiefs.

He says the $80m is the tip of what could be a very large iceberg, and notes that in July President Biden used discretionary powers to approve the sale of military services and equipment worth $500m to Taiwan. Mr Wang says Taiwan is preparing to send two battalions of ground troops to the US for training, the first time this has happened since the 1970s.

But the key is the money, the beginning of what, he says, could be up to $10bn over the next five years.

Deals involving military equipment can take up to 10 years, says I-Chung Lai, president of the Prospect Foundation, a Taipei-based think-tank. "But with FMF, the US is sending weapons directly from its own stocks and it's US money - so we don't need to go through the whole approval process."

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Taiwan, a self-governed island, faces the threat of annexation from China

This is important given that a divided Congress has held up billions of dollars worth of aid for Ukraine, although Taiwan appears to have far more bipartisan support. But the war in Gaza will undoubtedly squeeze America's weapons supply to Taipei, as has the war in Ukraine. President Biden is seeking war aid for Ukraine and Israel, which includes more money for Taiwan too.

Ask the Ministry of National Defence in Taipei what US money will be used for, and the response is a knowing smile and tightly sealed lips.

But Dr Lai says it's possible to make educated guesses: Javelin and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles - highly effective weapons that forces can learn to use quickly.

"We don't have enough of them, and we need a lot," he says. "In Ukraine, the Stingers have run out very quickly, and the way Ukraine has been using them suggests we need maybe 10 times the number we currently have."

The assessment of long-time observers is blunt: the island is woefully under-prepared for a Chinese attack.

The list of problems is long. Taiwan's army has hundreds of ageing battle tanks, but too few modern, light missile systems. Its army command structure, tactics and doctrine haven't been updated in half a century. Many front-line units have only 60% of the manpower they should have. Taiwan's counter-intelligence operations in China are reportedly non-existent and its military conscription system is broken.

In 2013 Taiwan reduced military service from one year to just four months, before reinstating it back to 12 months, a move that takes effect next year. But there are bigger challenges. It's jokingly referred to as a "summer camp" by the young men who go through it.

"There was no regular training," says a recent graduate. "We would go to a shooting range about once every two weeks, and we would use old guns from the 1970s. We did shoot at targets. But there was no proper teaching on how to aim, so everyone kept missing. We did zero exercise. There's a fitness test at the end, but we did no preparation for it."

He described a system in which senior army commanders view these young men with utter indifference and have zero interest in training them, in part because they will be there for such a short time.

In Washington there is a strong sense that Taiwan is running out of time to reform and rebuild its military. So, the US is also starting to retrain Taiwan's army.

For decades, the island's political and military leaders have leant heavily on the belief that invading the island is much too difficult and risky for China to attempt. Rather like Britain, Taiwan prioritised its navy and air force - at the expense of its army.

"The idea was to engage them in the Taiwan Strait and annihilate them on the beaches. So, we put lots of resources into air and sea defence," says Dr Lai.

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Taiwan's biggest advantage is that it's an island with hilly terrain

But now China has the world's largest navy and a far superior air force. A war-gaming exercise conducted by a think-tank last year found that in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle.

Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy that would make the island extremely difficult for China to conquer.

The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery - repelling an invasion on the beaches and, if necessary, fighting the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the towns and cities, and from bases deep in the island's jungle-covered mountains. But this puts the responsibility for defending Taiwan back on its outdated army.

"After the US cut relations in 1979 our army experienced almost complete isolation. So they are stuck in the Vietnam War-era of US military doctrine," Dr Lai says.

This didn't worry Taipei or Washington until more recently. Through the 1990s and 2000s Taiwanese and US companies were building factories across China. Beijing was lobbying to join the World Trade Organization - and did. The world embraced the Chinese economy, and the US thought trade and investment would secure peace in the Taiwan Strait.

But the rise of Xi Jinping, and his brand of nationalism, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have blown apart those comforting assumptions.

For Taiwan the lessons from Ukraine's invasion have been shocking. Artillery has dominated the battlefield - it has a high rate of fire and is terrifyingly accurate. Ukrainian crews have learned they must be on the move once they've fired a salvo of shells - or within minutes, Russian "counter-battery fire" comes raining down on their positions.

But many of Taiwan's artillery troops are equipped with Vietnam War or even World War Two-era guns. These are loaded manually and are difficult and slow to move. They would be sitting ducks.

Taiwan's vulnerability is forcing Washington to act. It's why Taiwanese ground troops are being dispatched to the US to train and US trainers are coming to Taipei to embed with Taiwan's marines and special forces.

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Taiwan's military is vastly outmatched by China

But William Chung, a research fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taipei, says Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine.

"International society has to decide whether Taiwan matters," he says. "If the G7 or Nato think Taiwan is important for their own interests, then we have to internationalise the Taiwan situation - because that's what will make China think twice about the cost."

Dr Chung says China's behaviour has, unwittingly, been helping Taiwan do just that.

"China is showing it is expansionist in the South China Sea and the East China Sea," he says . "And we can see the result in Japan where the military budget is now being doubled."

"China is trying to change the status quo across the region," he says. "[And that] means Taiwan security is connected to the South China Sea and East China Sea. It means we are no longer isolated."

There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan. Many long-time China watchers say any public commitment from the US said would provoke Beijing rather than deter it. But Washington also knows that Taiwan cannot hope to defend itself alone.

As one long-time China watcher put it: "We need to keep quiet on the whole issue of strategic ambiguity, while arming Taiwan to the teeth."
danielboon said:
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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

Tracking Military Activity Around #Taiwan

A great map from @ianellisjones
tracking recent military developments aound Taiwan and in the #SouthChinaSea
1699248997925.jpeg
 
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Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones

New details on Chinese naval exercises near Taiwan:

- 570 sorties flown from carrier-based aircraft (420 fighter jets & 150 helos)
- 10 warships operated with the carrier strike group, 5 more than initially reported—16 ships total
~ 700 nautical miles from Guam

Updated map:
1699311639971.jpeg
 
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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
Be ready for #Chinese military operations by late 2020s: Ex-US official

A former American defense official on Wednesday called on Taiwan, the United States and their allies to be prepared for "a moment in the late 2020s" when China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) might launch military operations against Taiwan.

Speaking virtually at a security conference in Taipei, Michèle Flournoy, former under secretary of defense for policy under President Barack Obama, said the Indo-Pacific region is now facing the rise of a "more assertive China."

It is "trying to change some of those rules of the international order and to assert its will as its economic and military power grows," she said.

She argued that increasing Sino-U.S. tensions in recent years were not because of a change of U.S. policy but because of the Chinese Communist Party's leadership change from former President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) to President Xi Jinping (習近平) in 2012.

Under Hu and his predecessors, "China was very much internally focused on its own economic development, on bringing elements of its population out of poverty into the middle class, building its own economy," she said.

With the arrival of President Xi, however, China sort of "dropped the mask or the veil" and "started to really flex its muscles economically, taking coercive measures against other countries militarily, building up its military," she said.

"Deterrence," Flournoy said, is the key to preventing a potential U.S.-China military conflict over Taiwan, both by "denial" and "deterrence through cost and position."

Denial means convincing Xi that "he can't be successful using military force to achieve his objectives," while deterrence through cost and position means that "even if he could succeed, it would be at such great cost that it would be a pyrrhic victory," she said.

On Taiwan, the former U.S. official said Xi was focused on both economic and political coercion in shrinking Taiwan's international space, putting pressure on Taiwan to change its posture.

Xi also instructed the PLA to continue its ongoing buildup to give him military options against Taiwan by 2027, she said.

"And so I believe we, the United States, our allies, Taiwan, the international community, we collectively need to be ready for a moment in the late 20s when deterrence may be tested.

"And we need to be prepared for that and to be confident that President Xi, if he does test the waters of using force, that he will conclude that it's too risky and too costly and he cannot succeed," she said.

Despite China's military posture, Flournoy said the U.S. still needed to engage with China due to shared interests and challenges and to reduce current level of tensions to stabilize the situation.

She said Xi's planned visit to the U.S. for the APEC summit later this month to meet with President Joe Biden could be a good start.

"I don't expect there to be any major policy changes on either side. I don't expect more than somewhat symbolic deliverables," she said.

"But I do think increasing dialogue, whether it's restarting military-to-military dialogue or dialogue on arms control, on other issues, I think that's very, very important," she said.

Flournoy's comments were made during a speech at the 2023 Taipei Security Dialogue, organized by the Taiwan government-funded think tank Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR).

Speaking during the opening ceremony of the one-day forum, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) reiterated that the Taiwanese people recognize the importance of safeguarding their homeland, not just for their own survival but for the security of the whole world.

"It bears reminding that Taiwan's security is tied to the security of the Indo-Pacific as well," she said.

"With democracies around the world facing their greatest test in a generation, it is crucial that we come together in deterring adversity and aggression in the region to ensure a peaceful future and the continuation of our shared values," she said.

 
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Wen-Ti Sung / @wentisung.bsky.social
@wentisung

Bombshell: Taiwan's opposition KMT announces today it's forming a presidential unity ticket with the upstart 3d party TPP to fight the ruling DPP.

- Presidential candidate TBA on Sat.
- TPP will get KMT help for down-ballot races.
- All emphasize 'unity govt', i.e. power-sharing
 
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Kyle Bass
@Jkylebass

After being able to download all that was said at the Xi/Biden summit, did anyone else hear what Xi said regarding Taiwan? Xi outlined the conditions where the use of force on Taiwan would be necessary…US businessmen (Fink and Schwarzman) flanking Xi are hypnotized by the fog1/3
Of Chinese money as xi prepares for war. Xi’s economy has collapsed. The $13 trillion Local Govt Financing market (which is experiencing critical defaults)has been declared ‘paying’ by the PBOC. They also said it won’t affect bank’s stability reviews. China has collapsed 2/3
and Xi needs our private sector’s money as a result. This trip was a ln attempt to stir the greed of US billionaires who are taken by xi’s siren song (as evidenced by a standing ovation) at the $40k per head dinner last night. We all know what happens next
 
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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Google Warns China Is Ramping Up Cyberattacks Against #Taiwan

Company has observed a ‘massive increase’ in China’s attacks.

Government-sponsored hackers targeting government and industry.

Google has observed a “massive increase” in Chinese cyberattacks on Taiwan in the last six months or so, said Kate Morgan, a senior engineering manager in Google’s threat analysis division, which monitors government-sponsored hacking campaigns.

Morgan warned that Chinese hackers are employing tactics that make their work difficult to track, such as breaking into small home and office internet routers and repurposing them to wage attacks while masking their true origin.

 
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asiatimes.com
Taiwan to point US-supplied HIMARS at China
Gabriel Honrada
7–9 minutes

Taiwanese troops are slated to receive specialized training to operate M1 tanks and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) training in the US, marking a crucial step in Taiwan’s defense strategy amid increasing geopolitical tensions.

Late last month, Taiwan News reported that Taiwan will send 114 personnel to the US for M1A2T Abrams tanks and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) training. The report mentions that the self-governing island will receive deliveries of 11 HIMARS systems and thirty-eight M1A2T Abrams tanks in 2024.

It notes that the Taiwanese military intends to send dispatch personnel to the United States for training beginning in January to meet the equipment operation and maintenance personnel requirements. It also notes that upon completing their training, they will be responsible for training operations and function as instructors for the two weapon systems.

The report quotes Taiwan’s 2024 Ministry of National Defense Budget in saying that 108 M1A2T tanks, which were agreed to be sold to Taiwan by the United States in 2019, are scheduled to be delivered beginning the following year. It notes that the initial shipment of 38 M1A2T tanks is anticipated to arrive the next year, followed by an additional 42 in 2025 and 28 in 2026.

Further, Taiwan News mentions that the US granted Taiwan authorization to procure 11 HIMARS systems in 2020, and the latter later agreed to acquire an additional 18 units.

The source says shipments of the initial run of eleven HIMARS systems are anticipated to commence the following year and continue through 2025, with the delivery of the remaining eighteen HIMARS systems slated to occur in 2026.

Taiwan News notes that the defense budget for the following year calls for the deployment of 84 officers and enlisted personnel to the US in January for M1A2T tank training. It says the finalization of the training is anticipated by the end of the following year.

Moreover, the report says 30 officers and enlisted personnel will be dispatched to the US for HIMARS training beginning in February of the following year, with their training anticipated to be finished by October.
US Marines conduct a fire mission with a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System during an Expeditionary Advance Base Operation exercise at the Northern Training Area in Okinawa, Japan, on June 18, 2020. Photo: US Marine Corps / Corporal Donovan Massieperez

It notes that the soldiers will be entrusted with the role of instructors for these two weapon systems upon their return to the country, tasked with the development of guidelines and lesson plans, in addition to the execution of educational and training endeavors.

Those M1 tanks are set to play a critical role in a Taiwanese counteroffensive against a Chinese invasion. In an October 2020 article for the Global Taiwan Institute, Charlemagne McHaffie says that tanks will be the lynchpin of Taiwan’s counterattack to defeat Chinese attempts to break out of established beachheads.

While McHaffie points out that M1 tanks have been criticized as vanity purchases with little warfighting value, tanks are still critical elements for tactical and operational-level counterattacks. He points out that asymmetric weapons such as anti-tank missiles are suitable for the defense but cannot replace tanks in the offense.

As for HIMARS, Kama Hsu and Jaime Ocon noted in a video last month for Taiwan Plus that HIMARS provides Taiwan with valuable shoot-and-scoot capability, addressing a massive vulnerability with traditional towed guns that make the majority of Taiwan’s artillery firepower.

Towed artillery guns are neither protected nor mobile, and while they can be entrenched, they are vulnerable to aerial precision strikes. HIMARS gives Taiwan the ability to bombard Chinese beachheads while remaining safe from counterbattery fire by rapidly shifting locations.

Notably, that progress in M1 tank and HIMARS artillery acquisition occurs amidst a massive backlog of US arms deliveries to Taiwan, with the former’s defense industry strained by having to support Ukraine and Israel while maintaining domestic production and grappling with internal issues.

In a Cato Institute article last month, Eric Gomez and Benjamin Giltner mention that the US has a USD 19.17 arms sales backlog to Taiwan, covering asymmetric weapons, munitions, and traditional weapons such as tanks.

Gomez and Giltner note that asymmetric weapons such as short-range air and anti-ship missiles make up US$4.2 billion or 22% of the backlog, munitions such as 155 mm artillery rounds making up $2.8 billion or 15% of the backlog, and traditional weapons such as M1 tanks making up $12.1 billion or 50% of the backlog.

They note that traditional weapons, which are vulnerable to destruction in the initial stages of a possible Chinese invasion, dominate the US backlog to Taiwan.

The US also faces issues providing Taiwan’s weapons with maintenance and support. In a separate November article for the Cato Institute, Gomez and Giltner note that the US gave Taiwan more maintenance support for their traditional weapons, such as F-16s, than their asymmetric capabilities.

They say that traditional weapons are used more often during peacetime and, therefore, have higher maintenance costs than most asymmetric weapons. However, they also point out that while traditional platforms perform a more comprehensive range of missions, this comes with more wear and tear and higher maintenance costs.

Given Taiwan’s limited defense budget, they say such acquisitions come with a significant opportunity cost in money not available to build and maintain asymmetric systems, which tend to have lower upfront and lifetime costs.

Gomez and Giltner point out that the amount of maintenance support the US gives to Taiwan shows that the latter cannot sustain its high-end capabilities independently. They point out this risk as resupplying Taiwan may not be an option in the event of a Chinese invasion and blockade.
People’s Liberation Army amphibious tanks assault a beach during an exercise conducted on an island off the southeastern province of Fujian across from Taiwan in a file photo. Image: Photo: Xinhua

Noting that risk, they say that the US should boost Taiwan’s ability to maintain its US-made weapons with domestically-made parts and that the latter should stockpile spare parts with the same urgency as munitions. In addition to those issues, the US defense industry faces internal problems that hamper its ability to provide for Taiwan.

In a January 2023 article for the Cato Institute think tank, Jordan Cohen and Jennifer Kavanagh point out that the US defense industrial base’s limitations in meeting domestic and international orders, inefficiencies in the US sales-to-delivery process, and complicated export controls contribute to the vast US arms delivery backlog for Taiwan.

Cohen and Kavanagh mention that arming Taiwan will require significant investments in the US defense industrial base, changes to the arms transfer process, and a clear prioritization of Taiwan over smaller US customers with questionable human rights records.
asiatimes.com

Taiwan to point US-supplied HIMARS at China

Taiwanese troops are slated to receive specialized training to operate M1 tanks and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) training in the US,
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic

Chinese military surveillance balloon is spotted in Taiwan Strait​

Taiwan's Defense Ministry says it has spotted a Chinese surveillance balloon in the Taiwan Strait along with a large-scale movement of military aircraft and ships
By The Associated Press
December 8, 2023, 12:09 AM

FILE - Taiwan military vessels are seen in Keelung Harbor in Taiwan, on Aug. 4, 2022. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said a Chinese military surveillance balloon passed over the northern port city of Keelung Thursday night, Dec. 7, 2023, then continued travelling east before disappearing. (AP Photo/Johnson Lai, File)

FILE - Taiwan military vessels are seen in Keelung Harbor in Taiwan, on Aug. 4, 2022. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said a Chinese military surveillance balloon passed over the northern port city of Keelung Thursday night, Dec. 7, 2023, then continued travelling east before disappearing. (AP Photo/Johnson Lai, File)

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Taiwan’s Defense Ministry says it spotted a Chinese surveillance balloon in the Taiwan Strait along with a large-scale movement of military aircraft and ships.

The ministry said the balloon passed southwest of the northern port city of Keelung on Thursday night, then continued east before disappearing, possibly into the Pacific Ocean.

There seemed to be some uncertainty about whether the balloon was operated by the People's Liberation Army, the military branch of China's ruling Communist Party. The ministry referred to it both as a ”PLA surveillance balloon" and as “PRC's balloon," using the acronym for the People's Republic of China, China's official name.

A Defense Ministry spokesperson said they had no additional information.

The incident came just over a month before Taiwan is to hold elections for president and the legislature and raises questions about possible Chinese efforts to influence the vote.

China’s Defense Ministry offered no comment, and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said, “I’m not aware of the situation, and it is not a diplomatic question.”

China has long blurred the lines between military and civilian functions, including in the South China Sea, where it operates a huge maritime militia — ostensibly civilian fishing boats that act under government orders to assert Beijing's territorial claims.

Taiwan has threatened to shoot down such balloons, but the ministry did not say what, if any, action was taken. It said the balloon was flying at an altitude of approximately 6,400 meters (21,000 feet).

It also said 26 Chinese military aircraft and 10 navy ships were detected in the 24 hours before 6 a.m. Friday.

Fifteen of the aircraft crossed the median line that is an unofficial divider between the sides, but which Beijing refuses to recognize, it said. Some also entered Taiwan's self-declared air defense identification zone outside the island's airspace, which encompasses the 160-kilometer (100-mile) -wide Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan’s military monitored the situation with combat aircraft, navy vessels and land-based missile systems, the ministry said.

Such incursions occur regularly as a means of advertising China’s threat to use force to annex the self-governing island republic it considers its own territory, wear down Taiwan’s military capabilities, and impact morale among the armed forces and the public, who remain largely ambivalent to China’s actions.

The Chinese missions have also prompted Taiwan to increase its purchases of aircraft from the United States, its chief ally, and strengthen its own defense industry, including producing submarines.

Beijing strongly protests all official contacts between the U.S. and Taiwan, but Taipei's aggressive diplomacy has helped build strong bipartisan support for it on Capitol Hill.

U.S. President Joe Biden vowed sharper rules to track, monitor and potentially shoot down unknown aerial objects after a three-week high-stakes drama sparked by the discovery of a suspected Chinese spy balloon transiting much of the United States early in the year.

The U.S. labeled the balloon a military craft and shot it down with a missile. It recovered what it said was sophisticated surveillance equipment. China responded angrily, saying it was only a weather balloon that had blown off course and called its downing a major overreaction.

abcnews.go.com

Chinese military surveillance balloon is spotted in Taiwan Strait

Taiwan's Defense Ministry says it has spotted a Chinese surveillance balloon in the Taiwan Strait along with a large-scale movement of military aircraft and ships
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
Last edited:
jward

jward

passin' thru
asiatimes.com
Taiwan deepens squeeze on chip tech leakage to China
Jeff Pao​


Taiwan, citing national security reasons, has banned exports to mainland China of know-how and raw materials that can be used to make chips smaller than 14 nanometers.

Advanced chip-making technology is now one of 22 core technologies that Taiwan does not want Beijing to obtain, according to the island’s National Science and Technology Council (NSTC).

The list, which covers the defense, aerospace, agricultural, semiconductor and cybersecurity sectors, took effect immediately after its announcement on Wednesday (December 6).

“If people have the knowhow to make chips below 14nm, they can make many other chips,” Chen Kwo-liang, director general of the NSTC’s Department of Foresight and Innovation Policies said, citing the opinion of an official advisory board formed by industry experts and academics.

Chen said Taiwan, taking cues from other countries, would control the exports of a list of items including chip-making equipment, gas and chemical products used in making chips below 14nm.

In July, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry imposed export regulations on 23 types of advanced chip-making equipment and raw materials.

“The announcement of a core technologies list is aimed at protecting Taiwanese firms’ commercial secrets. Anyone who steals these technologies or illegally exports them should be punished under the national security law,” Chen said.

Last year, Taiwan passed an amendment to its national security law in which those who steal national core technologies for overseas “hostile forces” will face fixed-term imprisonment of between five to 12 years and fines of between NT$5 million (US$158,973) and NT$100 million.

Taiwan also amended its Cross-Strait Act in 2022 to require its national engineers with core technological skills to apply for permits if they want to work for mainland Chinese firms but have not left their previous positions for three years.
Liang Mong-song’s case

The NSTC said it spent a year creating the core technologies list and it will unveil another extended list around March or April 2024.

The latest announcement came after Huawei Technologies launched its Mate60 Pro smartphone, which used a 7nm processor made by the Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), in late August.

Technology experts said SMIC’s chief executive Liang Mong-song and his team could have made a breakthrough in the N+2 technology, which can make high-energy 7nm processors with deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading chip foundry, achieved the technology seven years earlier. Liang had worked for TSMC from 1992-2009.
TSMC is the world’s leading chip producer. Image: Twitter Screengrab / Digitimes

In October 2022, the United States banned American engineers from working for Chinese chip-makers, forcing them to choose between their jobs in China and their US nationality. But that rule did not affect Liang as he is Taiwanese.

Chinese commentators said if Liang is targeted with legal action by Taiwan, he can stay on the mainland for the rest of his life and be a hero in China’s chip sector. However, younger Taiwanese chip engineers may have to rethink their career plans due to the new core technologies list.

“As the US, Japan and South Korea have in recent years strengthened their laws to protect their strategic industries and core technologies, most Taiwanese companies agree that the Taiwanese government should follow suit,” Huang Chun-chien, director of the Mainland China Affairs Division under Taiwan’s Chinese National Federation of Industries, says in an article published by the United Daily News.

“However, some Taiwanese companies are worried that they will face problems when relocating their core technicians to mainland China,” he says.

If Taiwan keeps expanding its core technologies list, fewer and fewer Taiwanese technicians will go to work on the mainland, making it difficult for the island’s companies to operate their businesses there, Huang said.

He adds it will be bad for Taiwan in the long run if fewer Taiwanese technicians can participate in research and development projects in mainland China. Huang’s comments were cited by Cankaoxiaoxi.com, or Reference News, and widely circulated in mainland China on Thursday and Friday.

Wang Jin, an associate professor at China’s Northwest University, says in an article that China should not worry too much about Taiwan’s core technologies list.

China has its own defense, aerospace and semiconductor technologies and does not need to learn from Taiwan, he asserts. More technological blockages will only push China to achieve more breakthroughs, Wang said.

Read: Raimondo calls out Nvidia for China shipments

Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
asiatimes.com

Taiwan deepens squeeze on chip tech leakage to China

Taiwan, citing national security reasons, has banned exports to mainland China of know-how and raw materials that can be used to make chips smaller than
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
NFSC Speaks
@NFSCSpeak

The large-scale power outages in Xinjiang, Fujian, and Beijing in China are Xi Jinping's test for attacking Taiwan. Some forces in the West are colluding with the CCP behind the scenes and saying, "If we want to attack Taiwan, hurry up." They will send troops to Taiwan as a symbolic move, but after conquering Taiwan, they will rule the world together with the CCP.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1733553859388117291
View: https://twitter.com/NFSCSpeak/status/1733553859388117291?s=20
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
John Deere Girl said:
Would you mind sharing what this is? I can't get it to open.
Click to expand...

Here you go.....

Posted for fair use.....
www.taiwannews.com.tw

CNN: China plans ‘false flag’ tactics as excuse for war against Taiwan | Taiwan News | Dec. 16, 2023 17:30

www.taiwannews.com.tw www.taiwannews.com.tw

CNN: China plans ‘false flag’ tactics as excuse for war against Taiwan​

Outrage about fictitious incident could allegedly help justify attack on Taiwan​

By Matthew Strong, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/12/16 17:30

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China might be training for a “false flag” operation likely to trigger outrage helping to justify a war against Taiwan, CNN reported Friday (Dec. 15).

The United States news service said it based its report on a Taiwanese security document it had “obtained and reviewed exclusively.” The document was related to investigating fabricated media reports during the summer.

A Taiwanese newspaper alleged the U.S. had ordered Taiwan to develop biological weapons for use against China in the event of war. The report mentioned discussions between senior Taiwanese officials about the non-existent project, though there was no evidence such talks ever took place, CNN said.

China seemed to be practicing the use of disinformation to create an excuse for a military attack against Taiwan while alleging the U.S. was about to launch a war against China, CNN quoted a Taiwanese security official as saying.

A “false flag” operation in a similar way could provoke public outrage in China, which could then be used as justification by the communist country’s leaders to justify military action against Taiwan, according to the CNN report.

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Updated : 2023-12-17 06:46 GMT+08:00

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Taiwan News © 2023 All Rights Reserved.
 
J

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
Housecarl said:
Here you go.....

Posted for fair use.....
www.taiwannews.com.tw

CNN: China plans ‘false flag’ tactics as excuse for war against Taiwan | Taiwan News | Dec. 16, 2023 17:30

www.taiwannews.com.tw www.taiwannews.com.tw

CNN: China plans ‘false flag’ tactics as excuse for war against Taiwan​

Outrage about fictitious incident could allegedly help justify attack on Taiwan​

By Matthew Strong, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/12/16 17:30

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China might be training for a “false flag” operation likely to trigger outrage helping to justify a war against Taiwan, CNN reported Friday (Dec. 15).

The United States news service said it based its report on a Taiwanese security document it had “obtained and reviewed exclusively.” The document was related to investigating fabricated media reports during the summer.

A Taiwanese newspaper alleged the U.S. had ordered Taiwan to develop biological weapons for use against China in the event of war. The report mentioned discussions between senior Taiwanese officials about the non-existent project, though there was no evidence such talks ever took place, CNN said.

China seemed to be practicing the use of disinformation to create an excuse for a military attack against Taiwan while alleging the U.S. was about to launch a war against China, CNN quoted a Taiwanese security official as saying.

A “false flag” operation in a similar way could provoke public outrage in China, which could then be used as justification by the communist country’s leaders to justify military action against Taiwan, according to the CNN report.

RELATED ARTICLES​

French documentary reveals TikTok's attempts to influence Taiwan elections
2023/12/05 12:10
American Institute in Taiwan director stresses importance of cybersecurity cooperation
2023/12/04 17:21
Taiwan Fact Check: Mask wearing not mandatory
2023/11/30 18:22
Coast Guard refutes YouTube video claiming Taiwan fired rocket at Chinese ship near Dongsha Islands
2023/11/29 11:48
Taiwan says false information spread about Indian migrant workers online
2023/11/21 17:00



Updated : 2023-12-17 06:46 GMT+08:00

MOST POPULAR​

‘Emperor's Clause' cartoon angers Taiwan pedestrian rights advocates
Taiwan’s 6 millionth visitor for 2023 arrives from Singapore
Taiwan taxi drivers protest 'driving hell' pedestrian safety laws
US Homeland Security fines Taiwan’s Starlux Airlines
CNN: China plans ‘false flag’ tactics as excuse for war against Taiwan
McDonald’s Taiwan to hike prices just before Christmas
Elephant Trunk Rock on Taiwan north coast loses trunk
Taiwan’s TSMC sees extra 3,000 employees take volunteer holiday
Foreign ministry slams Vietnam's claim Taiwan is 'part of China'
Watch preview of Taipei 101 New Year's Eve fireworks


Taiwan News © 2023 All Rights Reserved.
Click to expand...
Thank you!
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Why the Indian Ocean could be China's Achilles' heel in a Taiwan war​

By Greg Torode
December 13, 2023 9:04 PM EST
Updated 3 days ago

An undated file photo shows Diego Garcia, the largest island in the Chagos archipelago and site of a major United States military base

An undated file photo shows Diego Garcia, the largest island in the Chagos archipelago and site of a major United States military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean leased from Britain in 1966. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

HONG KONG, Dec 14 2023 (Reuters) - Every day, nearly 60 fully loaded very large crude-oil carriers sail between the Persian Gulf and Chinese ports, carrying about half of the oil that powers the world's second-largest economy.

As the vessels enter the South China Sea, they ply waters increasingly controlled by China's growing military, from the missile batteries and airfields at its bases on disputed islands to its stealthy Type 055 destroyers.

But when crossing the Indian Ocean, joined by others headed to China from Africa and Brazil, these tankers lack protection in a naval theatre dominated by the U.S.

A dozen military attaches and scholars say that vulnerability is now being scrutinised as Western military and academic strategists discreetly game scenarios about how a conflict with China over Taiwan, or elsewhere in East Asia, could evolve or escalate.

In a major war, Chinese oil tankers in the Indian Ocean "would find themselves very vulnerable", said David Brewster, a security scholar at the Australian National University.

"Chinese naval vessels would effectively be trapped in the Indian Ocean and ... they would have little or no air support, because there are no bases or facilities of its own that (China) could rely on."

Four envoys and eight analysts familiar with discussions in Western and Asian capitals, some speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, said this enduring weakness gives China's adversaries a ladder of escalatory options, especially in a drawn-out conflict, like Russia's war on Ukraine.

These scenarios range from harassment and interdiction operations against Chinese shipping that could divert Chinese naval vessels to the region, up to a blockade and beyond.

In a full-scale war, the tankers - capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil - would be prizes to be sunk or captured, reflecting naval actions of last century in which combatants targeted their enemies' economic resources, three analysts said.

These options could be used to dissuade China from launching action, or later to raise costs on an invasion of Taiwan.

Less clear is how this vulnerability shifts Beijing's calculations toward Taiwan, the people said.

China's defence ministry did not respond to questions about its position in the Indian Ocean.

Chinese strategists are aware of the problem but ultimately any decision to launch military action would be taken by President Xi Jinping, according to People's Liberation Army (PLA) documents and retired officers.

Xi has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said in February. China has been increasing military manoeuvres ahead of the island's elections in January.

Since taking power in 2013, Xi and other Communist Party leaders have stressed the importance of a modernised military that can project power globally and secure China's vital trade routes.

But amid fears of conflict, some of the analysts said China would struggle to protect these lifelines even as its energy demands increase, making a protracted war over Taiwan difficult to sustain.

China imported 515.65 million tons of crude oil in the 11 months through November, or 11.27 million barrels per day, official data show, an annual increase of 12.1%.

The Pentagon estimates about 62% of China's oil and 17% of its natural gas imports transit the Malacca Strait and South China Sea, key Indian Ocean gateways.

China is moving to diversify supplies, with three pipelines from Russia, Myanmar and Kazakhstan accounting for roughly 10% of its crude-oil imports in 2022, according to customs data and state media.

Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine have also led China to stockpile more cheap oil from Russia, its top supplier.

Food is a more complex picture. China's soybean imports - used for animal feed - are shipped in part via the Indian Ocean but other commodities such as potash, needed for fertiliser, arrive via other routes.

BASE SURROUNDED​

China has an extensive network of military satellites but just one dedicated military base, and no air cover from land or sea, for Indian Ocean naval deployments.

In its October annual report on China's military, the Pentagon lists 11 potential Chinese bases on the ocean's fringes, including Pakistan, Tanzania and Sri Lanka. Those locations reflect Chinese diplomatic and commercial outreach under Xi's Belt and Road Initiative.

But these have not emerged as hard military assets, with neither a permanent PLA presence nor publicly known guarantees of access in a conflict, the attaches and an Asian diplomat said.

The Pentagon report notes, in language used for the first time this year, that China still "has little power projection capability" in the Indian Ocean.

China's initial overseas base in Djibouti, on the ocean's western edge, opened in 2017 and hosts 400 marines, reflecting Chinese involvement in international piracy patrols around the Horn of Africa since 2008.

But the base has no airfield and is flanked by military facilities of seven other countries, including the U.S., France and Britain.

The U.S. Indian Ocean presence remains in stark contrast, reflecting its Cold War build-up.

The U.S. 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain while the Japan-headquartered 7th Fleet operates out of Diego Garcia, a U.K.-administered atoll with runways for long-range bombers and a lagoon adapted to house U.S. aircraft carriers.

To the east, Australia is increasing patrols using its submarine-hunting P-8 Poseidon aircraft and is expanding a west-coast base for British and U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and, eventually, Australian nuclear-powered boats.

WORK IN PROGRESS​

Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and a security fellow at Beijing's Tsinghua University, said he was aware of foreign debates about China's vulnerabilities but the scenarios were hypothetical.

Should China and the West clash militarily in the Indian Ocean, such a conflict by nature would be "almost uncontrollable" in scale and location, Zhou said. "At that point it is a major war involving a lot of countries," he said.

Still, he said, China would gradually expand deployments and basing options to strengthen its position.

Military attaches and analysts tracking Indian Ocean deployments say China generally maintains four or five surveillance vessels and a similar number of warships and an attack submarine at any time. But China is yet to test its most potent assets in the Indian Ocean, one former Western intelligence analyst said.

Some analysts expect that to change, particularly as PLA documents stress the piracy patrols' importance in protecting Indian Ocean supply lines. China could expand patrols if "hegemonic countries" exercise control over its vital transit routes, according to the 2020 Science of Military Strategy, an official paper outlining China's strategic priorities.

While China's navy keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic-missile submarines near their Hainan Island base, its attack submarines are expected to range more widely as they improve, a challenge to the U.S.

"We can see they are being cautious, definitely more cautious than expected," said retired U.S. Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, who in a 2020 book predicted an eventual major Chinese military presence to protect Indian Ocean sea lanes.

"I'm not saying they are not going to get there, but it does seem they are not comfortable yet, particularly with their aircraft carriers - and extending air cover will be vital for them in a conflict."

BLOCKADE TROUBLES​

Even if China cannot achieve dominance, some factors might run in its favour, some analysts say.

Blockades are difficult to implement given the fluidity of commerce, with oil sometimes traded en route.

Tracking and policing shipments would be a vast job, as operations against China would need to secure shipments to destinations like Japan, South Korea and Australia.

"You just can't get away with blocking your adversary's shipments and allowing yours to continue," said Brewster.

Historians continue to debate the effectiveness of blockades against Germany in World War One and Japan in World War Two.

Still, China has learned some of the lessons. It has about 60 days' strategic and commercial reserves of crude oil, according to analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler. Its petroleum reserves are partly stored underground and can't be tracked by satellites.

It has little surplus natural gas but is drawing increasing volumes from pipelines through Russia, Central Asia and Myanmar.

China is largely self-sufficient in wheat and rice, and keeps large stockpiles of both, although the quantities remain a state secret.

In 2022, Washington's U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission requested the Pentagon produce a classified report on the military requirements of a blockade on China's energy shipments, details not previously reported.

"The report should also consider the extent to which China may be able to satisfy its energy needs during a crisis or conflict through stockpiles, by rationing supplies, and by relying on overland shipments," the commission said.

Reporting by Greg Torode; additional reporting by Xu Muyu in Singapore, Dominique Patton in Beijing and Krishn Kaushik in New Delhi; editing by David Crawshaw

 
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jward

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Taiwan plans to fight on even after a #Chinese landing

Purchase of US Abrams tanks shows the invasion would be no easier than Russia's

Russia’s invasion in Ukraine could teach Taiwan how to use its tanks to repel a Chinese invasion.

Before Russian forces attacked in February 2022, some analysts questioned the usefulness of heavy, lumbering tanks on a high-tech battlefield dense with drones, missiles and mines.

But the fighting in Ukraine has underscored the enduring value of the heavily-armored firepower that tanks provide. Even when they’re under relentless assault from above.

The most recent tank battle in the Russia-Ukraine war might be the most telling. When Russian infantry closed in on the ruins of Avdiivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, Ukraine’s Soviet-vintage tanks rolled out to meet them.

In one dramatic clash, a 42-ton, three-person T-64 tank with a 125-millimeter main gun and hundreds of millimeters of armor rolled down on Russian infantry bunkering in houses on Avdiivka’s outskirts.

Shrugging off a blast from a mine or missile, the tank leveled structure after structure and sent the surviving Russians running.

It was the kind of fight a lighter vehicle might not have won. And the kind of fight that could be critical to Taiwan’s defense if Chinese forces manage to battle their way across the Taiwan Strait and land on the island.

Taiwan anticipates that it may have to fight on its own shores. It’s not for no reason that, in 2019, Taipei dropped $2.2 billion for 108 of the latest American-made M-1A2 tanks.

The 71-ton, four-person M-1s with their 120-millimeter guns and thick composite armor will complement Taiwan’s 200 older, and much lighter, M-60 and CM-11 tanks with their 105-millimeter guns.

The tanks form the steely core of Taiwan’s counter-landing force. If the Chinese fleet successfully crosses the 90-mile-wide Taiwan Strait – definitely not a foregone conclusion given the threat that Taiwanese and American missiles and submarines pose to a vulnerable amphibious fleet – and puts troops ashore, Taiwanese forces would aim to swiftly counterattack and push the Chinese forces back into the sea.

In that way, Taiwan’s brigades are “critical to the outcome of the operation,” Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham, analysts for the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, concluded in a January study.

Other observers disagree. “High-end equipment like F-16 aircraft, heavy tanks and submarines are useless” for the defense of Taiwan, Raymond Kuo, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation in California, wrote in January. “They are likely to be destroyed in any invasion’s opening salvo.”

Ukraine proved heavy forces can survive bombardment, however. Tipped off by Nato intelligence that the Russian attack was coming, the Ukrainian military dispersed its tanks and other heavy equipment.

The Ukrainian army’s most powerful tank unit, the 1st Tank Brigade, was intact when Russian regiments rolled in. And for more than a month, the brigade successfully defended the city of Chernihiv, north of Kyiv.

Taiwan isn’t Ukraine, of course, and China isn’t Russia. But if Ukraine’s tanks could survive the initial bombardment and go on to win battles, Taiwan’s probably could, too.

Even the rapid proliferation of tiny, explosives-laden drones doesn’t alter that calculation.

“The extensive use of [unmanned aerial systems] – for all the changes it has wrought – has yet to prove decisive, and has not pushed traditional ground combat capabilities from the battlefield,” analyst Nick Reynolds wrote for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

It might not even matter that most of Taiwan’s tanks are old. Yes, the M-60s are from the 1970s. But Russia and Ukraine have both deployed tanks that are older than that. A big gun and thick armor count for a lot, even when they’re decades-old.

The advanced age of many of Taiwan’s tanks might actually confer advantages. Tanks tend to get bigger with each successive generation, so Taipei’s oldest tanks – its CM-11s – are also its smallest, at just 55 tons apiece. Some observers describe them as “medium” tanks.

“In complex terrain, medium motorized forces may fit operational needs,” Reynolds wrote. They’re especially useful in crowded cities, where bigger tanks might not be able to maneuver. Taiwan is one of the most urbanized countries in the world.

Taiwan’s oldest tanks might not last long against China’s newest tanks, including its 60-ton, three-person Type 99s with their 125-millimeter main guns. But according to Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Pennsylvania, tank-on-tank duels in Ukraine are “rare.”

Instead, tanks usually do what those Ukrainian tanks did around Avdiivka recently: they fight infantry. An exposed rifleman doesn’t care whether the steel behemoth rolling toward him weighs 55 tons or 71 tons. It’s a deadly threat either way.

There are lots of ways to kill tanks, of course. In the early weeks of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian infantry packing American-made Javelin missiles knocked out hundreds of Russian tanks. Nearly two years later, drones might be the biggest killers of tanks in Ukraine.

But both sides are adapting even their smallest and oldest tanks: adding layers of add-on armor and fitting tiny radio-jammers that can ground drones before they strike.

Simple overhead protection grids can stop the smaller kinds of drone, and allow tank crews to ride with their hatches open at least some of the time.

Many observers imagine a potential war between China on one side, and Taiwan and its allies on the other, as a primarily air and naval conflict. And they’re not wrong.

But if and when Chinese troops hit the beaches, it becomes a ground conflict, too – one in which Taiwanese tanks could play a critical role.

But tanks will be more useful if Taiwan heeds the lessons of the Ukraine war, and spreads out its tanks, reinforces them with jammers and extra armor and deploys them against infantry.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1736225528548634819
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1736225528548634819?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Anthony Ho
@anthonykfho
Extremely insightful analysis of the 2022 Chinese white paper on Taiwan question.

The Chinese white paper on Taiwan emphasizes the use of force by China would be a last resort in “compelling circumstances,” potentially referring to larger-scale military actions as seen in the August 2022 exercises.

As for the type of reunification, it would be under the “One Country, Two Systems” model but to avoid a repeat of Hong Kong’s “instability,” Beijing wants to be able to “impose a sufficient degree of control over Taiwan.”

A “high degree of autonomy” for Taiwan as a Chinese special administrative region (SAR) would be contingent upon the guarantee of “China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests.” This “conditional” approach to Taiwan’s proposed promised autonomy is in stark contrast to the 2000 white paper.

A quick summary of what is missing from the new 2022 white paper is the following:

❌ English version of the white paper leaves out “negotiate” as a manner of the two sides approaching the question of unification; it is present in the Chinese version but “平等談判” meaning “negotiate as equals,” is missing; telling on how Beijing views Taipei.

❌ “[N]egotiations should be held between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese KMT on a reciprocal basis and… talks between the two parties may include representatives from all parties and mass organizations of Taiwan.” and the line about the CPC not negotiating with “central and local authorities” of Taiwan are not present - raising questions of how Beijing views the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The white paper now only (conditionally) guarantees that Taiwan can maintain its own social and economic system. No longer does it mention Taiwan being allowed to maintain a vast amount of rights previously found in 1993 and 2002 white papers, such as:

❌ “will have its own administrative and legislative powers”

❌ will maintain “an independent judiciary and the right of adjudication on the island”

❌ “will run its own party, political, military, economic, and financial affairs”

❌ “may keep its military forces and the mainland will not dispatch troops or administrative personnel to the island”

❌ “Representatives of the government of the special administrative region and those from different circles of Taiwan may be appointed to senior posts in the central government and participate in the running of national affairs.”

It appears China’s perfect idea of a unified Taiwan SAR is one that is “governed by patriots who are loyal and subordinate to Beijing.”

It certainly sounds extremely familiar, if not the same, as the nightmare that is China-ruled, post-National Security Law 2020 Hong Kong…

“The white paper makes this clear, concluding: “All Taiwan compatriots who support reunification of the country and rejuvenation of the nation will be the masters of the region, contributing to and benefitting from China's development.””
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Anthony Ho
@anthonykfho
Extremely insightful analysis of the 2022 Chinese white paper on Taiwan question.

The Chinese white paper on Taiwan emphasizes the use of force by China would be a last resort in “compelling circumstances,” potentially referring to larger-scale military actions as seen in the August 2022 exercises.

As for the type of reunification, it would be under the “One Country, Two Systems” model but to avoid a repeat of Hong Kong’s “instability,” Beijing wants to be able to “impose a sufficient degree of control over Taiwan.”

A “high degree of autonomy” for Taiwan as a Chinese special administrative region (SAR) would be contingent upon the guarantee of “China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests.” This “conditional” approach to Taiwan’s proposed promised autonomy is in stark contrast to the 2000 white paper.

A quick summary of what is missing from the new 2022 white paper is the following:

❌ English version of the white paper leaves out “negotiate” as a manner of the two sides approaching the question of unification; it is present in the Chinese version but “平等談判” meaning “negotiate as equals,” is missing; telling on how Beijing views Taipei.

❌ “[N]egotiations should be held between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese KMT on a reciprocal basis and… talks between the two parties may include representatives from all parties and mass organizations of Taiwan.” and the line about the CPC not negotiating with “central and local authorities” of Taiwan are not present - raising questions of how Beijing views the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The white paper now only (conditionally) guarantees that Taiwan can maintain its own social and economic system. No longer does it mention Taiwan being allowed to maintain a vast amount of rights previously found in 1993 and 2002 white papers, such as:

❌ “will have its own administrative and legislative powers”

❌ will maintain “an independent judiciary and the right of adjudication on the island”

❌ “will run its own party, political, military, economic, and financial affairs”

❌ “may keep its military forces and the mainland will not dispatch troops or administrative personnel to the island”

❌ “Representatives of the government of the special administrative region and those from different circles of Taiwan may be appointed to senior posts in the central government and participate in the running of national affairs.”

It appears China’s perfect idea of a unified Taiwan SAR is one that is “governed by patriots who are loyal and subordinate to Beijing.”

It certainly sounds extremely familiar, if not the same, as the nightmare that is China-ruled, post-National Security Law 2020 Hong Kong…

“The white paper makes this clear, concluding: “All Taiwan compatriots who support reunification of the country and rejuvenation of the nation will be the masters of the region, contributing to and benefitting from China's development.””
Click to expand...

Yeah, very much rhymes with what happened to Hong Kong....
 
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www.dailymail.co.uk

China's top-secret spaceplane is releasing signals over North America

An amateur astronomer, who has been tracking the plane, told DailyMail.com he believes the signals target a ground station or boat near British Columbia, Canada , where he lives.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
(fair use applies)


Top secret Chinese spaceplane is releasing strong signals over North America - months after US shot down China's spy balloon that collected intelligence from military sites
By Stacy Liberatore For Dailymail.com
Published: 08:41 EST, 22 December 2023 | Updated: 10:55 EST, 22 December 2023

  • Amateur astronomers found China's spaceplane is releasing emissions to Earth
  • Signals were collected while the plane soared over British Columbia, Canada

A top secret Chinese spaceplane that launched into orbit last week is sending strong signals over North America.

The craft - dubbed Shenlong after a spirit dragon from Chinese mythology - has released six mysterious objects after reaching the Earth's orbit for the third time in three years.

The objects are being tracked by the US Space Force but no details have been released publicly as to what they are or what purpose they serve.

Amateur astronomer Scott Tilley has been tracking the plane and examining the signals they have been emitting.

He told DailyMail.com they appear to be sending the strongest signals while passing over North America.

It comes just 10 months after the US shot down a Chinese spy that could have collected intelligence as it passed over several military sites.

Tilley said he believes the signals are targeting a ground station or boat near British Columbia, Canada, where he lives.

'When the spaceplane passes over me, it only emits on a certain trajectory of pass that appears to favor a location south to southwest of me.

'I.e., on higher elevation passes over me, there are no signals, but on ocean-hugging passes to my southwest, all of my observations of the object have occurred.'

Tilley has teamed up with a group in Switzerland that specializes in optical-band space surveillance, and the collaboration has been keeping a close eye on the plane since it launched on December 15.

The US Department of Defense has designated the six objects OBJECT A through F.

Tilley and the team in Switzerland labeled the spaceplane Object A, which has 'now been identified as the test spacecraft by the US Space Force.'

Object B is 'very bright' and showed 'characteristics during several passes that we would rather associate with an upper stage,' according to S2A Systems, the team in Switzerland.

'The light curve of Object D also indicates a stabilized attitude control,' the team continued.

'Object C appears to be a rapidly spinning faint piece of debris. OBJECT F is also quite faint, but no rotation has yet been detected.

'We will carry out further measurements during the coming weeks.'

Objects E and D are believed to be satellites.

'The object suspected as the space plane Object A emits signals,' said Tilley.

'Objects D and E have also been observed emitting signals by an observer in Australia.

'I have also received another report just now of a possible reception of signals from Object B.'

An announcement in the Chinese press described the purpose of the space plane as providing 'technical support for the peaceful use of space' - but the nation has kept details under wraps, as has American officials about their craft.

China's spaceplane launched one day after the US was forced to scrub the flight of its 'spy' plane, which the US Space Force chief said was 'no coincidence.'

'It's probably no coincidence that they're trying to match us in timing and sequence of this,' General Chance Saltzman, Space Force's Chief of Space Operations, said.

Speaking at the Space Force Association's Spacepower Conference in Orlando, General Saltzman emphasized the sophistication of these unmanned and reusable orbital spycrafts, which can offer greater operational security than spy satellites.

'The ability to put something into orbit, do some things, and bring it home and take a look at the results is powerful,' Saltzman said.

'It's no surprise that the Chinese are extremely interested in our spaceplane,' he said. 'And we're extremely interested in theirs.'

Nevertheless — despite years of promo photos of America's Boeing-designed X-37B covert spacecraft — no images of its Chinese rival have leaked to the public.
 
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