WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

jward

passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
18s

Reuters: China's air force and navy staged another large-scale drill involving fighters, bombers and warships to Taiwan's south and southwest on Tuesday, the island's defense ministry said.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China sends large group of warplanes, navy ships towards Taiwan in forceful display​

China has sent navy ships and a large group of warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, toward Taiwan over the past two days
By HUIZHONG WU Associated Press
July 12, 2023, 12:59 AM


Taiwan China

FILE - In this file photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, a Chinese People's Liberation Army H-6 bomber is seen flying near the Taiwan air defense identification zone, ADIZ, near Taiwan on Sept. 18, 2020. China sent navy ships and a large group of warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, toward Taiwan over two days, the island’s defense ministry said on Wednesday, July 12, 2023, before its annual military exercises aimed at defending itself against a possible invasion.(Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP, File)
The Associated Press

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- China sent navy ships and a large group of warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, toward Taiwan over two days, the island’s defense ministry said on Wednesday, before its annual military exercises aimed at defending itself against a possible invasion.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army sent 38 warplanes and 9 navy vessels around Taiwan, between 6 a.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday. From Wednesday morning until noon time, the military flew another 30 planes, among which included J-10 and J-16 fighters.

Of these, 32 crossed the midline of the Taiwan Strait, an unofficial boundary that had been considered a buffer between the island and mainland. Later on Wednesday, another 23 planes crossed the midline.

Taiwan is scheduled to hold the annual Han Guang exercise later this month, in which its military will hold combat readiness drills against preventing an invasion. It will also conduct the annual Wan'an exercises aimed at preparing civilians for natural disasters and practicing evacuations in case of an air raid.

China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory and in recent years has shown is displeasure at political activities in Taiwan by stepping up the number of military planes sent toward Taiwan. In the past year, it has also started sending its navy vessels, as well as drones to circle the waters near the island.

In Tuesday and Wednesday's maneuvers, the PLA flew H-6 bombers in a large loop to the south of Taiwan, traveling past the island before looping back towards China's southern coast.

Its largest military drills in recent years were in response to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. It fired missiles over the island in a significant escalation and the military exercises disrupted trade lanes in the Taiwan Strait and forced airplanes to reroute their flights.

In April, the PLA held large-scale combat readiness drills in the air and waters around Taiwan in response to the island's President Tsai Ing-wen meeting with the current U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

abcnews.go.com

China sends large group of warplanes, navy ships towards Taiwan in forceful display

China has sent navy ships and a large group of warplanes, including fighter jets and bombers, toward Taiwan over the past two days
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
northern watch said:
With the US / NATO running out of 155mm shells and other munitions, would it be a good time for China to invade Taiwan?
Click to expand...

Considering the escalation curve to nukes has always been steep, that only makes it worse particularly when you consider that in order to guarantee not to be stopped in the initial landings the CCP would have to strike US and allied bases in the Pacific to include Guam, Japan, Hawaii, South Korea, Alaska and the US west coast.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

Posted for fair use......
breakingdefense.com

(Re)assessing the near-term Chinese carrier threat in a Taiwan scenario - Breaking Defense

In this new op-ed, Ben Ho of IISS looks deeply at the question of how China may use its aircraft carriers in a Taiwan invasion.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com

(Re)assessing the near-term Chinese carrier threat in a Taiwan scenario​

In this new op-ed, Ben Ho of IISS looks deeply at the question of how China may use its aircraft carriers in a Taiwan invasion.​

By BEN HO WAN BENG on July 21, 2023 at 11:58 AM

With the fast approach of the Davidson Window, which sets the date for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as soon as 2027, much attention has been focused on Beijing’s aircraft carriers and how they could come into play. In the following analysis, Ben Ho of IISS looks at two prevailing theories about how effective the carriers may be in an invasion, before raising a new way of looking at the issue.

In the past decade, there has been much talk over China’s staggering pace of defense modernization. Of note would be Beijing’s aircraft-carrier program, and this aspect of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has spawned a bustling cottage industry. There have been additions to this conversation in recent months. For instance, in a May Reuters article, various experts maintained that the Chinese carrier force is still embryonic and poses “little threat yet” despite 10 years of development and counting. The story came on the back of the early-spring deployment of the PLAN’s second flattop, the Shandong, into the western Pacific and approaching Guam.

The Reuters piece added that there are questions over the value of Chinese carriers during a Taiwan contingency, at least in the short term (read within the next few years or within the timeframe of the “Davidson window.”), and such doubts are largely due to the limited capabilities of the Liaoning (China’s first flattop) and Shandong. (While China’s third carrier, the Fujian, is much more capable owing to its catapult-assisted takeoff and barrier-arrested recovery, or CATOBAR, flight-deck configuration, the ship will probably be operational only in the late 2020s given the “first-in-class” issues that will invariably surface). In response to the Reuters article, military analyst Rick Fisher warned of underestimating the Chinese carrier threat because of the protective cover of Beijing’s shore-based anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) edifice. The arguments both sides put forth have merit, but need more nuance. What is more, that PLAN carrier airpower could adequately menace Taiwan’s east coast — an argument which seems to be gaining traction — needs to be addressed.

One issue with the Reuters story is that it seems to compare Chinese flattops with American ones on an individual basis, as Fisher rightly noted. In such a setting, the United States CATOBAR supercarrier, with some 70 aircraft onboard, simply outmatches its Chinese counterpart. On paper, the Liaoning and Shandong have relatively meager air wings (about 20-30 strong). In addition, the PLAN’s mainstay carrier-borne fighter, the J-15, has relatively inferior capabilities as it can only operate in the short takeoff and barrier-assisted recovery flight-deck configuration from the Liaoning/Shandong, thereby limiting the aircraft’s performance in areas such as range and payload.

In the real world, however, weapon platforms do not operate in isolation, and this is another area where Fisher was on point. Ditto the analyst quoted in a Global Times (interestingly, as it is seen as an unofficial Chinese mouthpiece) response to the Reuters article, who argued that “the Shandong does not fight alone, but in a comprehensive combat system.” Indeed, during a Taiwan war, Chinese carriers will arguably operate under the protective umbrella of the PLA’s much vaulted “fortress fleet.”

Simply put, this concept would see Beijing employing land-based weaponry, especially long-range missiles, to hold enemy navies at risk, concomitantly protecting PLAN forces. The Reuters piece gave short shrift to this aspect of Chinese strategy, with just a brief mention of Beijing’s flattops “working in tandem with submarines and anti-ship missiles to attempt to control… (the) near seas.” Observers cited in the Reuters story also mentioned that the Chinese carrier fleet has “relied on land-based airfields… for extra air cover and surveillance,” but this is to be expected in a fortress-fleet concept of operations.

On the other hand, Fisher goes too far when arguing that Chinese carriers “will operate within a dome of PLA anti-ship missile superiority” and that they “will be hiding behind a literal phalanx of missiles.” To speak in such absolute terms is probably overstating the case. To be sure, in principle, the fortress fleet should give the PLAN carrier strike group (CSG) a meaningful degree of cover during a Taiwan contingency. In reality, however, Beijing’s idea of “using the land to control the sea” has never been tested in the crucible of war.

Ultimately, the confidence of Chinese planners in the deterrent value and combat viability of their fortress fleet will ultimately influence what mission, if any, PLAN carriers will have against Taiwan.

Chinese Carrier Deployment East of Taiwan?​

This brings us to the assumption that these vessels have a role to play, especially in an “eastern front,” should cross-Strait hostilities break out within the next few years. Any such role is likely to be secondary given that the island is within range of even short-ranged aviation from the mainland, and the latter could generate more sorties than one or two small-deck carriers, as the Liaoning and Shandong really are. Afforded cover by the fortress fleet, in theory the Chinese CSG could threaten Taiwan from the Philippine Sea and use its mobility to exert a strategic effect ashore by making Taipei divert forces to protect the east coast. (Operationally, the amount of power the two Chinese flattops could project is rather limited, but strategically, even a feint could tie up substantial enemy forces and complicate Taipei’s defense planning.)

Recent contributions to the Chinese carrier discourse show that there are members in this “Beijing’s flattops are useful against eastern Taiwan” camp. In an April Focus Taiwan report, local experts cited warned of the “serious threat” the Chinese carrier airpower would pose to the island’s east side. A day later, Reuters ran a story on the same issue where it noted that the situation could be perilous should there be an “unfettered, more coordinated attack from the east.” Tellingly (and rightly so), the Reuters story added a caveat: “Beijing could not operate carriers with impunity in that area during a conflict, analysts said, especially if nations friendly to Taiwan were involved, but added that Taiwan would struggle to deal with such a threat on its own.”

Looking at the map, Beijing would probably think twice of using its crown jewels as the centerpiece of any naval operation against eastern Taiwan, should there be external intervention. After all, any Chinese carrier fleet sailing relatively close to that part of the island could find itself boxed in from four directions between unfriendly forces, notwithstanding any cover provided by Beijing’s fortress fleet. Besides dealing with any forces Taiwan sends to reinforce its east coast, to the north and northeast, Japan’s Ryukyus have substantial military assets operating from them and these islands are being fortified apace. To the south, the Bashi Channel chokepoint and the northern Philippines loom with Manila leaning towards the Americans. There is of course the possibility of the US Seventh Fleet steaming in from the eastern Pacific.

Large warships in general, not just aircraft carriers, enjoy greater freedom of maneuver in the open sea to reduce their vulnerability, and this means any Chinese carrier sent to threaten eastern Taiwan would do well to stay further away from the coast. A Catch-22 situation then arises. Deploy nearer Taiwan and the PLAN CSG finds itself more vulnerable to detection and attack. On the other hand, deploy further east into the Philippine Sea to reduce the chances of being boxed in, and Chinese carrier jets could find themselves near or at their operational limits.

It would not be surprising if the concerns outlined above were probably also in Lee Hsi-ming’s mind when the retired Taiwanese admiral and former vice defense minister spoke last month of PLAN flattops not being useful in a cross-Strait war as they “would not be able to withstand attacks by the US military.”

Role Reversal for the Carrier?​

The dilemma for the Chinese carrier discussed above could, however, be alleviated should the notional PLAN CSG center its operations around its surface combatants rather than the carrier. In other words, the task force’s cruiser and destroyer force should paradoxically dish out the “Sunday Punch” rather than the flattop they are screening. In a reversal of roles, the carrier will protect its supposed consorts.

Earlier this year, retired US Navy commander Michael Dahm contended —and rightly so given the relative infancy of Chinese carrier aviation— that “the centerpiece of PLAN strategy, especially over the next decade, will likely continue to be the strike capabilities of its surface combatants and submarines.” He added that the carrier’s “fighters provide an air-defense umbrella, leaving power projection and striking capabilities —at least for the near term— to Chinese ships and missile-capable submarines.” The PLAN’s greyhounds for its carrier fleet, the Type 55 cruiser and Type 52D destroyer, are compatible with the CJ-10 land-attack cruise missile. This weapon’s thousand-mile range far exceeds the several hundred miles striking reach of carrier-borne aircraft, providing the Chinese force with more operational vistas should the missile be deployed.

Various observers, including this author, have suggested this heterodox concept of operations for carrier forces in general as the operating environment becomes increasingly non-permissive with the maturation of the reconnaissance-strike complex. And while takeaways from the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war are not totally applicable to a Taiwan scenario, they nevertheless offer glimpses of how a high-intensity contest over the island might pan out. One of the key lessons from the Ukraine war is that even limited (not to mention robust ones) enemy air defenses may reduce the role manned aviation plays and increase the accent on standoff weapons, at least during the opening stages of a conflict.

This is likely to happen too during a Taiwan scenario. In such circumstances, a PLAN “missile strike group,” rather than the traditional CSG, poses a greater threat to the island. With the relevance of even the American supercarrier being questioned in the face of A2/AD challenge, when it fully comes onboard, the more capable Fujian will face similar problems, albeit to a lesser degree, compared to its small-deck predecessors should it operate on the eastern front of a cross-Strait war.

The answers to these issues will involve substantial blood and treasure, so hopefully we will never get to find out.

Ben Ho is an associate editor at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, where he heads editorial projects of the Cyber Power and Future Conflict Programme. He also has research interests in airpower and seapower issues, especially of the Indo-Pacific.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.
@MoNDefense

Taiwan’s #Wanan 46 Air Raid Drill will take place from July 24 to 27. Civilians are required to shelter in place when joint air defense exercises are being conducted in their area.
The drill aims to raise public awareness for emergency warnings to reduce casualties and damage in the event of an attack. Traffic will come to a halt for 30 minutes when the air raid sirens begin at 1:30 p.m.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

China’s navy includes civilian ferry in military transport drill​


  • Exercise meant to test the ability of the PLA and non-military vessels to work together, state broadcaster says
  • The People’s Liberation Army has been looking at ways to get supplies and troops to front lines more efficiently


China’s navy deployed a civilian ferry to transport troops and trucks in a test of amphibious warfare skills seen as key to an attack on Taiwan.

State broadcaster CCTV reported on Saturday that the Chang Shan Dao ferry transported equipment and personnel between Lushun New Port to the Port of Dalian on the Bohai Sea to develop the troops’ ability to transport supplies at sea.

“This ferry delivery exercise aimed to explore and test the efficiency of the combined forces’ long-distance supply operations, to clear barriers in the joint military-local logistics mechanism, and to optimise coordination,” it said.

The report did not say when the exercise took place, but according to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic the Chang Shan Dao sailed between ports in the city of Dalian on July 19.

Amphibious warfare would be central to an attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its territory.




Beijing has never renounced using force to unite the island with mainland China. Most countries do not regard Taiwan as an independent state, but many oppose taking the island by force.
The People’s Liberation Army has been developing a “military-local logistics mechanism” to try to get supplies to front lines more efficiently.

The Chang Shan Dao can carry 1,400 people, has 2km (1.2 miles) of “driveway” for vehicles to park on and has a displacement of 23,000 tonnes, according to its state-owned operator Cosco Shipping Ferry.
The PLA has used civilian ferries built by state-owned enterprises to help it transport supplies in drills in the past.


3
The Chang Shan Dao ferry takes part in a military exercise on the Bohai Sea. Photo: CCTV
The Chang Shan Dao ferry takes part in a military exercise on the Bohai Sea. Photo: CCTV

China’s navy deployed a civilian ferry to transport troops and trucks in a test of amphibious warfare skills seen as key to an attack on Taiwan.

State broadcaster CCTV reported on Saturday that the Chang Shan Dao ferry transported equipment and personnel between Lushun New Port to the Port of Dalian on the Bohai Sea to develop the troops’ ability to transport supplies at sea.

“This ferry delivery exercise aimed to explore and test the efficiency of the combined forces’ long-distance supply operations, to clear barriers in the joint military-local logistics mechanism, and to optimise coordination,” it said.

The report did not say when the exercise took place, but according to ship-tracking website MarineTraffic the Chang Shan Dao sailed between ports in the city of Dalian on July 19.
The Chang Shan Dao ferry transports equipment and personnel during a military exercise. Photo: CCTV
The Chang Shan Dao ferry transports equipment and personnel during a military exercise. Photo: CCTV

Amphibious warfare would be central to an attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its territory.

Beijing has never renounced using force to unite the island with mainland China. Most countries do not regard Taiwan as an independent state, but many oppose taking the island by force.

The People’s Liberation Army has been developing a “military-local logistics mechanism” to try to get supplies to front lines more efficiently.

The Chang Shan Dao can carry 1,400 people, has 2km (1.2 miles) of “driveway” for vehicles to park on and has a displacement of 23,000 tonnes, according to its state-owned operator Cosco Shipping Ferry.

The PLA has used civilian ferries built by state-owned enterprises to help it transport supplies in drills in the past.
Every Saturday
A weekly curated round-up of social, political and economic stories from China and how they impact the world.
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy

In 2011, the military used the Bohai Zhen Zhu, or “Bohai Pearl”, to move troops and equipment in a drill, the first time a civilian ship with a displacement of more than 10,000 tonnes had been deployed in such an exercise, a 73rd Group Army officer told state media at the time.

The vessel was operated by Bohai Ferry Group, a company directly owned by the state.
China’s military simulates precision strikes on Taiwan after island’s leader returns from US visit

The PLA has also used civilian ferries to move troops, equipment and supplies across greater distances.

According MarineTraffic, the Bohai Jing Zhu ferry diverted from its usual route in the Bohai Sea in September last year, sailing from Lianyungang south of the Shandong peninsula to Nanjing, an inland port.

The Bohai ferry Ji Long Dao also took part in loading military vehicles during a major live-fire drill targeting Taiwan in August 2022, according to a CCTV report. The exercise followed a visit to Taiwan by then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi.

In a report for the US Naval War College in January, Michael Dahm, a retired US Navy commander, said the August drills showed that the PLA had made significant progress in large-scale lift of troops and equipment into undefended ports, which could help it attack Taiwan.

Twelve civilian ferries and cargo ships sailed 82 times between 11 ports in a separate five-week exercise in July-August last year, he said, basing his findings on satellite imagery and ship movements tracked by MarineTraffic.

More than 8,500 military vehicles and 58,000 troops were transported in those drills, he said.

But Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s naval academy, said the PLA’s use of civilian ferries was not necessarily aimed at Taiwan because Beijing also claimed many artificial islands in the South China Sea that could benefit from expanded logistics.

“These drills not only train PLA troops but also the civilian crew of the roll-on/roll-off ships,” he said, referring to vessels designed to carry vehicles with wheels.

He said roll-on/roll-off ferries would already be in position if drafted by the PLA into military action, allowing a quicker start to an operation.

But he said satellite images could not show how far the PLA’s logistical ability had advanced with such drills. Information from state media would conceal weaknesses in the training, he said.
Conversations (3)
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
hmm.

Apex
@Apex_WW
5m

The United States is expected to announce as early as Friday that it will provide Taiwan with military assistance worth more than $300 million, Reuters reports.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
55m
Congress has already Authorized $1 Billion worth of Military Equipment for Taiwan in the 2023 President Drawdown Authority.
jward said:
hmm.

Apex
@Apex_WW
5m

The United States is expected to announce as early as Friday that it will provide Taiwan with military assistance worth more than $300 million, Reuters reports.
Click to expand...

Exclusive-New Taiwan Weapons Package to Be Announced Soon - US Officials​


U.S. News StaffJuly 6, 2021


By Mike Stone and Idrees Ali
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States is expected to announce as early as Friday that it will provide Taiwan with military assistance worth more than $300 million, two U.S. officials told Reuters, a move likely to anger China.
Congress authorized up to $1 billion worth of Presidential Drawdown Authority weapons aid for Taiwan in the 2023 budget.

One official, speaking on the condition anonymity, said the package is expected to be worth around $330 million.
The White House declined to comment.

Political Cartoons on World Leaders​


mrz072623dapc.jpg

The formal announcement is not expected to include a list of weapon systems being provided.
In recent weeks, four sources said the package was expected to include four unarmed MQ-9A reconnaissance drones, but noted their inclusion could fall through as officials work through details on removing some of the advanced equipment from the drones that only the U.S. Air Force is allowed access to.

Another issue was who would pay for the alterations to the drones, one of the people briefed on the matter said. Reuters could not determine if the drones were still part of the package.
The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Taiwan had previously agreed to purchase four, more advanced, MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones, made by General Atomics, which are slated for delivery in 2025.
China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has increased military pressure on the island over the past three years. It has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan strongly rejects Chinese sovereignty claims and says only Taiwanese people can decide their future.

Foreshadowing the upcoming aid, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on May 16 told a Senate panel: "And I'm pleased that the United States will soon provide significant additional security assistance to Taiwan through the Presidential Drawdown Authority that Congress authorized last year."
Earlier this month, the top U.S. general said the United States and its allies need to speed up the delivery of weapons to Taiwan in the coming years to help the island defend itself.
Beijing has repeatedly demanded the United States, Taiwan's most important arms supplier, halt the sale of weapons to the island.

U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had said Taiwan needed weapons like air defense systems and those that could target ships from land.
Taiwan has said its defense spending this year will focus on preparing weapons and equipment for a "total blockade" by China, including parts for F-16 fighters and replenishing weapons.

Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) has been used on an emergency basis to expedite security assistance to Ukraine by allowing the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stockpiles. The Taiwan PDA, however, is a non-emergency authority approved by Congress last year.
Taiwan has complained of delays to U.S. weapon deliveries, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, as shipments from U.S. stockpiles moved to Ukraine.
(Reporting by Mike Stone and Idrees Ali; editing by Chris Sanders, Deepa Babington and Lincoln Feast.)
Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Could economic indicators signal China’s intent to go to war?​

Before any missiles are launched, food and fuel must be bought​

Farm workers turn wheat seeds at a sunning ground in Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province, China
image: getty images

The Economist
Jul 27th 2023

In the early 1980s, during a tense period in the cold war, the Soviet Union feared that America and its allies were considering a nuclear strike and went looking for warning signs. The kgb’s list of indicators ranged well beyond the military sphere. Big campaigns to donate blood, the slaughter of livestock and the movement of art might signal that an attack was coming.

Today a new kind of cold war pits America against China. And again analysts are looking for signs of a potential conflict. The most likely flashpoint is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims and America supports. Were China planning to invade Taiwan, its military preparations would be hard to hide. But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent.

The Soviet Union mistook ordinary activities, such as blood drives, for possible indicators of war. When it comes to China, finding signals in the noise is even harder. The country has spent decades improving its armed forces. It routinely stockpiles food. And it has hardened its economy against potential sanctions. All of these actions have fed fears of war—yet they do not necessarily mean that one is imminent. The challenge for Western intelligence agencies, then, is to imagine how China might deviate from this wary baseline in the run-up to an actual attack.

One area to focus on is commodities, namely energy, food and metals. China would want to secure adequate supplies of each before launching an invasion. Many of these goods come from abroad and are bought by the state, so trade data are a useful gauge of the government’s intentions. Patterns that would warrant attention include large and continuous increases in supplies, sudden changes in imports or exports, purchases that go against the market and moves that are out of line with historical trends. No single data point will indicate that a war is coming. But a plausible early-warning system might be formed by pooling observations.

Energy is a good place to start. China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it uses. The substance accounts for only 20% of the country’s energy use, but it would be crucial to any war effort. Military vehicles run on it, as do the lorries that transport supplies. If China were to start increasing its reserves—it currently has enough to last three months at today’s consumption rate—that would be one of the best indicators that it is preparing for war, says Gabriel Collins of Rice University in Texas.

Detecting increases that deviate from recent trends will be tricky. Chinese imports of oil have been rising for a decade. The country is expanding its storage capacity, building underground caverns that are both more secure and harder to spy on than tanks out in the open. But in wartime China might restrict use largely to the armed forces. Signs of such rationing would be a more obvious, if late, indicator.

Gas makes up a far smaller share of China’s energy mix, but it may still hold clues to a coming conflict. If China feared being cut off from foreign supplies it would probably burn more coal, of which it has plenty. It might also go on a buying spree. Such was the case in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, when Russia’s main gas company curbed supply. In the six months before the attack, Chinese entities bought more than 91% of all the liquefied natural gas purchased worldwide under term deals (typically spanning four years or longer), according to Mr Collins and his colleague, Steven Miles.

The firms signed contracts that locked in near-term supplies, breaking from China’s past practice of focusing on future deliveries. Nine of the 20 state-owned outfits involved in the purchasing had never bought gas before. China may simply have decided to stock up before prices rose even higher (as they did). But Messrs Collins and Miles say the deals raise questions about China’s complicity with Russia.

20230729_CNC065.png


Whereas fuel would be needed to power China’s war machine, food must be procured to sustain its people. China imports more agricultural produce than any other country. Obsessed with food security, it already has enormous stockpiles. In 2021 an official said its wheat reserves could meet demand for 18 months. Over the past decade China has greatly increased its purchases of wheat, corn, rice and soyabeans (see chart).

How might China change its behaviour if war were on the horizon? The answer is that it would probably buy even more food. One product to watch is soyabeans. China imports 84% of its stock. Much of it is used to feed pigs. (Pork accounts for 60% of all meat consumption in China.) The country currently has enough beans to feed its pigs for under two months. A rapid increase in buying could indicate that it was preparing for conflict, says Gustavo Ferreira, an agricultural officer in the us Army, particularly if these purchases were not matched by a rise in livestock production or if they went against market trends.

Some of this activity may be hard to see. The size of China’s grain hoard, for example, is hotly debated. When it comes to metals, the challenge may be even greater. Items such as beryllium and niobium are used to make military gear. Platinum and palladium go into engines. How much China has of these metals, most of which are imported, is difficult to say because its consumption patterns are unclear.

As with fuel and food, unusual metal-buying patterns could be a signal. Changes in China’s exports would be a more visible indicator. It might become more reluctant to part with the rare-earth metals crucial to many technologies. China has a near-monopoly on many of these. In July it announced export controls on gallium and germanium, two metals used in chips. This was part of its tech battle with America, though, not a sign of a looming hot war.

China buys many of its commodities from countries that might not mind if it invades Taiwan, nor adhere to a Western-led embargo. But China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has told his security chiefs to prepare for the “worst-case scenario”. They would probably want to make China as self-sufficient as possible in the case of war.

Similar thinking infuses China’s approach to the financial system. It has introduced a cross-border payment mechanism that could, if necessary, bypass Western financial institutions—though at present most transactions still go through foreign platforms. China and its state-owned firms increasingly push trade partners to sign contracts in yuan, to reduce the country’s dependence on the dollar. If it were planning for war, China might also move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into assets that are harder to sequester, such as gold.

Financial markets tend to react late to geopolitical dangers. But if investors got wind of China’s plans, there would be capital flight. The government would probably tighten its capital controls. State entities would also cash in assets held by overseas custodians and repatriate the proceeds. They might renege on some overseas investments or delay payments. In the days leading up to an attack the government might freeze all foreign funds in China.

Some of these actions may come too late to be useful signals of war. Others may prove illusory as indicators. When talking about national security, Mr Xi says “stormy seas” are ahead. The state’s efforts to batten down the hatches could be mistaken for something worse. To a certain extent, that is the point. Part of China’s strategy is to convince the world that it is ready and willing, if not about to invade Taiwan. But its behaviour risks confirming the most pessimistic assumptions of Western analysts.

So it went during the last cold war. In 1983 nato held a military drill that was to culminate in a simulated nuclear attack. Relying on the kind of indicators the kgb had identified, some Soviet officials feared the exercise might be cover for the real thing. Today, as China practises invading Taiwan, Western analysts must be careful not to suffer from their own confirmation bias. But if economic and financial indicators—along with satellite imagery, signals intelligence and human sources—can help America and its allies see a war coming, perhaps they can prevent it.

www.economist.com

Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan?

Before any missiles are launched, food and fuel must be bought
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 
Last edited:
jward

jward

passin' thru
Taiwanese military’s plan to use mountain barrier as natural shield called into question as PLA expands presence to the east

The island’s military has long planned to shelter forces on the harder-to-attack east of the island in the event of a full-scale assault from the Chinese mainland
But one former commander says the PLA’s increasing shows of air and sea power off the east coast mean the island is vulnerable to being attacked in the rear






A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

The Taiwanese military’s long-standing plan to preserve its forces on the east side of the island in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland has been called into question after increasing shows of strength from the People’s Liberation Army.
Unlike the heavily fortified west of the island – the side closest to the mainland – the east is shielded by the Central Mountain Range, making it harder for the PLA to attack.
Taking advantage of this natural barrier, the island’s military has built two large underground hangars – one at the Chiashan base in Hualien county and one in Chihhang in Taitung county.
For years the annual Han Kuang military exercise has been used to test the abilities of Taiwan’s air force and navy to move planes and ships from the west to take shelter in the east and wait for the right time to stage a counter-strike.




But the PLA has been stepping up its activities in the east, regularly sending planes into the island’s eastern and southeastern air defence identification zones and more warships and submarines into the waters off the east coast.
In April, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng confirmed that the PLA had deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier in waters about 200 nautical miles (370km) east of Taiwan in a three-day mega drill that followed President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mil...litary-drills?module=hard_link&pgtype=article​

Beijing, which claims the island as part of its own territory, regarded the meeting as a major breach of its sovereignty.

The PLA’s increased presence off Taiwan’s east coast has raised doubts about the defensive plan, given that the eastern side of the island is within range of PLA forces in the western Pacific.
“The dispatch of air sorties and deployment of the Shandong for training off our east coast means that the PLA will soon have the ability to attack us in our rear,” a retired commander of the defence force based in eastern Taiwan said.

The officer, who declined to be named, said the PLA was expected to build up its forces close to eastern Taiwan in the event of a full-scale attack.

“If the runways of our Chiashan and Chihhang bases are destroyed, what’s the point of sheltering our warplanes there as they won’t be able to take off without the runways?” the officer said.

He said warships sheltering at ports in Hualien and Taitung were at even greater risk of attack from the western Pacific.

“So, if we are not able to largely expand our combat power in eastern Taiwan, including strengthening our anti-missile, anti-air and ship capabilities, sheltering … at the underground bases and ports in the east coast could in no way preserve our forces there,” he said.






A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

The Taiwanese military’s long-standing plan to preserve its forces on the east side of the island in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland has been called into question after increasing shows of strength from the People’s Liberation Army.
Unlike the heavily fortified west of the island – the side closest to the mainland – the east is shielded by the Central Mountain Range, making it harder for the PLA to attack.
Taking advantage of this natural barrier, the island’s military has built two large underground hangars – one at the Chiashan base in Hualien county and one in Chihhang in Taitung county.
For years the annual Han Kuang military exercise has been used to test the abilities of Taiwan’s air force and navy to move planes and ships from the west to take shelter in the east and wait for the right time to stage a counter-strike.




But the PLA has been stepping up its activities in the east, regularly sending planes into the island’s eastern and southeastern air defence identification zones and more warships and submarines into the waters off the east coast.
In April, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng confirmed that the PLA had deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier in waters about 200 nautical miles (370km) east of Taiwan in a three-day mega drill that followed President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.

PLA sends 29 planes and ships near Taiwan as island holds annual military drills

25 Jul 2023

​

Beijing, which claims the island as part of its own territory, regarded the meeting as a major breach of its sovereignty.

The PLA’s increased presence off Taiwan’s east coast has raised doubts about the defensive plan, given that the eastern side of the island is within range of PLA forces in the western Pacific.
“The dispatch of air sorties and deployment of the Shandong for training off our east coast means that the PLA will soon have the ability to attack us in our rear,” a retired commander of the defence force based in eastern Taiwan said.
Every Saturday




A weekly curated round-up of social, political and economic stories from China and how they impact the world.
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
The officer, who declined to be named, said the PLA was expected to build up its forces close to eastern Taiwan in the event of a full-scale attack.

“If the runways of our Chiashan and Chihhang bases are destroyed, what’s the point of sheltering our warplanes there as they won’t be able to take off without the runways?” the officer said.

He said warships sheltering at ports in Hualien and Taitung were at even greater risk of attack from the western Pacific.
“So, if we are not able to largely expand our combat power in eastern Taiwan, including strengthening our anti-missile, anti-air and ship capabilities, sheltering … at the underground bases and ports in the east coast could in no way preserve our forces there,” he said.









China’s PLA sends dozens of warplanes near Taiwan as island holds annual Han Kuang military drills​

Chieh Chung, a security researcher at the National Policy Foundation, a Taipei think tank affiliated with the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, said the increase in the PLA’s operations near Taiwan’s east coast was aimed at strengthening its ability to deny access to the area to US forces in the western Pacific.

“If the communist forces are able to secure their striking position in the western Pacific facing the east coast of Taiwan, they should be able to use their ship-launched warplanes and cruise missiles to destroy our facilities in Hualien and Taitung,” he said.
“So there is a need to greatly enhance the defence capabilities of our forces in eastern Taiwan if we are to maintain this strategy.”
Beijing views Taiwan as its territory that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary. Like most countries, the United States – Taiwan’s biggest informal ally and arms supplier – does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but is opposed to any unilateral change of the cross-strait status quo by force.
The Han Kuang military exercise is used to test the military’s ability to shelter its warplanes at bases such as Taitung. Photo: CNA


The Han Kuang military exercise is used to test the military’s ability to shelter its warplanes at bases such as Taitung. Photo: CNA
The cross-strait rivalry has increased since Tsai of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle

Chang Yen-ting, a retired air force lieutenant general, said it was still safer to try to preserve forces behind the mountain barrier as the east was still safer, relatively speaking, than the north and west of the island.
“Taiwan’s major political, economic and military facilities extend from north to west Taiwan and they – especially the capital Taipei – should be the primary target of the Chinese communists in the event of a cross-strait war,” he said.
The PLA would also need to take into account the nearby presence of US forces that could come to the island’s rescue if attacking Taiwan from the east, he said.

PLA sends dozens of warplanes towards Taiwan

23 Jul 2023

​

Lin Yin-yu, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei, said repeated force preservation drills in eastern Taiwan, would help the island’s military find out where it needed to improve.

“No doubt the PLA could always use its Dongfeng missiles to destroy our facilities in eastern Taiwan, but we also have anti-missile systems to counter them,” he said, referring to recent reports that Beijing had deployed the medium-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan.
Lin said while the PLA’s DF-17 missiles definitely had the ability to hit Taiwan, he did not rule out the possibility they could also target US forces on Okinawa or the Philippines.
Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, said the PLA’s increasing strength meant the whole island could become one war zone – a point the defence minister Chiu conceded at a session of the legislature in May.
“The defence ministry must devise schemes that could help preserve and strengthen our forces all over Taiwan,” Lo said.


www.scmp.com

Taiwan military’s plan to use mountain shield called into question

The island’s military has long planned to shelter forces on the harder-to-attack east of the island in the event of a full-scale assault from the Chinese mainland.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Taiwanese military’s plan to use mountain barrier as natural shield called into question as PLA expands presence to the east

The island’s military has long planned to shelter forces on the harder-to-attack east of the island in the event of a full-scale assault from the Chinese mainland
But one former commander says the PLA’s increasing shows of air and sea power off the east coast mean the island is vulnerable to being attacked in the rear






A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

The Taiwanese military’s long-standing plan to preserve its forces on the east side of the island in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland has been called into question after increasing shows of strength from the People’s Liberation Army.
Unlike the heavily fortified west of the island – the side closest to the mainland – the east is shielded by the Central Mountain Range, making it harder for the PLA to attack.
Taking advantage of this natural barrier, the island’s military has built two large underground hangars – one at the Chiashan base in Hualien county and one in Chihhang in Taitung county.
For years the annual Han Kuang military exercise has been used to test the abilities of Taiwan’s air force and navy to move planes and ships from the west to take shelter in the east and wait for the right time to stage a counter-strike.




But the PLA has been stepping up its activities in the east, regularly sending planes into the island’s eastern and southeastern air defence identification zones and more warships and submarines into the waters off the east coast.
In April, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng confirmed that the PLA had deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier in waters about 200 nautical miles (370km) east of Taiwan in a three-day mega drill that followed President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.

PLA sends 29 planes and ships near Taiwan as island holds annual military drills​

Beijing, which claims the island as part of its own territory, regarded the meeting as a major breach of its sovereignty.

The PLA’s increased presence off Taiwan’s east coast has raised doubts about the defensive plan, given that the eastern side of the island is within range of PLA forces in the western Pacific.
“The dispatch of air sorties and deployment of the Shandong for training off our east coast means that the PLA will soon have the ability to attack us in our rear,” a retired commander of the defence force based in eastern Taiwan said.

The officer, who declined to be named, said the PLA was expected to build up its forces close to eastern Taiwan in the event of a full-scale attack.

“If the runways of our Chiashan and Chihhang bases are destroyed, what’s the point of sheltering our warplanes there as they won’t be able to take off without the runways?” the officer said.

He said warships sheltering at ports in Hualien and Taitung were at even greater risk of attack from the western Pacific.

“So, if we are not able to largely expand our combat power in eastern Taiwan, including strengthening our anti-missile, anti-air and ship capabilities, sheltering … at the underground bases and ports in the east coast could in no way preserve our forces there,” he said.






A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

A Taiwanese C130 transport plane prepares to land at the Chihhang Base in eastern Taiwan, one of the sites of a large hangar protected by the mountains. Photo: CNA

The Taiwanese military’s long-standing plan to preserve its forces on the east side of the island in the event of an attack from the Chinese mainland has been called into question after increasing shows of strength from the People’s Liberation Army.
Unlike the heavily fortified west of the island – the side closest to the mainland – the east is shielded by the Central Mountain Range, making it harder for the PLA to attack.
Taking advantage of this natural barrier, the island’s military has built two large underground hangars – one at the Chiashan base in Hualien county and one in Chihhang in Taitung county.
For years the annual Han Kuang military exercise has been used to test the abilities of Taiwan’s air force and navy to move planes and ships from the west to take shelter in the east and wait for the right time to stage a counter-strike.




But the PLA has been stepping up its activities in the east, regularly sending planes into the island’s eastern and southeastern air defence identification zones and more warships and submarines into the waters off the east coast.
In April, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng confirmed that the PLA had deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier in waters about 200 nautical miles (370km) east of Taiwan in a three-day mega drill that followed President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.

PLA sends 29 planes and ships near Taiwan as island holds annual military drills​

25 Jul 2023​

​

Beijing, which claims the island as part of its own territory, regarded the meeting as a major breach of its sovereignty.

The PLA’s increased presence off Taiwan’s east coast has raised doubts about the defensive plan, given that the eastern side of the island is within range of PLA forces in the western Pacific.
“The dispatch of air sorties and deployment of the Shandong for training off our east coast means that the PLA will soon have the ability to attack us in our rear,” a retired commander of the defence force based in eastern Taiwan said.
Every Saturday




A weekly curated round-up of social, political and economic stories from China and how they impact the world.
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
The officer, who declined to be named, said the PLA was expected to build up its forces close to eastern Taiwan in the event of a full-scale attack.

“If the runways of our Chiashan and Chihhang bases are destroyed, what’s the point of sheltering our warplanes there as they won’t be able to take off without the runways?” the officer said.

He said warships sheltering at ports in Hualien and Taitung were at even greater risk of attack from the western Pacific.
“So, if we are not able to largely expand our combat power in eastern Taiwan, including strengthening our anti-missile, anti-air and ship capabilities, sheltering … at the underground bases and ports in the east coast could in no way preserve our forces there,” he said.









China’s PLA sends dozens of warplanes near Taiwan as island holds annual Han Kuang military drills​

Chieh Chung, a security researcher at the National Policy Foundation, a Taipei think tank affiliated with the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, said the increase in the PLA’s operations near Taiwan’s east coast was aimed at strengthening its ability to deny access to the area to US forces in the western Pacific.

“If the communist forces are able to secure their striking position in the western Pacific facing the east coast of Taiwan, they should be able to use their ship-launched warplanes and cruise missiles to destroy our facilities in Hualien and Taitung,” he said.
“So there is a need to greatly enhance the defence capabilities of our forces in eastern Taiwan if we are to maintain this strategy.”
Beijing views Taiwan as its territory that must be brought under its control, by force if necessary. Like most countries, the United States – Taiwan’s biggest informal ally and arms supplier – does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but is opposed to any unilateral change of the cross-strait status quo by force.
The Han Kuang military exercise is used to test the military’s ability to shelter its warplanes at bases such as Taitung. Photo: CNA


The Han Kuang military exercise is used to test the military’s ability to shelter its warplanes at bases such as Taitung. Photo: CNA
The cross-strait rivalry has increased since Tsai of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle

Chang Yen-ting, a retired air force lieutenant general, said it was still safer to try to preserve forces behind the mountain barrier as the east was still safer, relatively speaking, than the north and west of the island.
“Taiwan’s major political, economic and military facilities extend from north to west Taiwan and they – especially the capital Taipei – should be the primary target of the Chinese communists in the event of a cross-strait war,” he said.
The PLA would also need to take into account the nearby presence of US forces that could come to the island’s rescue if attacking Taiwan from the east, he said.

PLA sends dozens of warplanes towards Taiwan​

23 Jul 2023​

​

Lin Yin-yu, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei, said repeated force preservation drills in eastern Taiwan, would help the island’s military find out where it needed to improve.

“No doubt the PLA could always use its Dongfeng missiles to destroy our facilities in eastern Taiwan, but we also have anti-missile systems to counter them,” he said, referring to recent reports that Beijing had deployed the medium-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan.
Lin said while the PLA’s DF-17 missiles definitely had the ability to hit Taiwan, he did not rule out the possibility they could also target US forces on Okinawa or the Philippines.
Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, said the PLA’s increasing strength meant the whole island could become one war zone – a point the defence minister Chiu conceded at a session of the legislature in May.
“The defence ministry must devise schemes that could help preserve and strengthen our forces all over Taiwan,” Lo said.


www.scmp.com

Taiwan military’s plan to use mountain shield called into question

The island’s military has long planned to shelter forces on the harder-to-attack east of the island in the event of a full-scale assault from the Chinese mainland.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
Click to expand...

Taiwan_relief_location_map.png

 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
2m


“Given the series of China's military activities east of Taiwan, experts consider Beijing to be finalizing preparations for a "blockade of Taiwan" in the near future.” 1/

“As China has achieved maritime expansions into the East China and South China seas, it can fully blockade Taiwan from three directions when it advances into the Western Pacific," said Yujen Kuo, director of a leading think tank in Taiwan.” 2//
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1686465949296156672
View: https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1686465949296156672?s=20

“The sharp increase in the number of Chinese military planes flying around Taiwan means that China is at the stage of mobilization for an immediate invasion of the island whenever necessary," Kuo warned. 3/

For China, eager to unify Taiwan with the mainland, the most promising invasion scenario is the island's quick fall. That would take away time that the Taiwanese military would need to stage counterattacks and the U.S. to intervene, Taiwanese experts concur.” 4/

“But there are problems to address. For example, the delivery of weapons from the U.S. to Taiwan, such as Stinger ground-to-air missiles, which have drawn strong attention in the Ukrainian crisis, has been delayed because the U.S. has prioritized a deal with Ukraine.” 5/
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China's Xi calls for combat readiness as PLA marks founding anniversary​

By Greg Torode and Albee Zhang
July 31, 202311:54 PM EDT
Updated 16 hours ago

Exhibition at military museum in Beijing

Visitors stand in front of a giant screen displaying Chinese President Xi Jinping next to a flag of the Communist Party of China, at the Military Museum of the Chinese People's Revolution in Beijing, China October 8, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo

HONG KONG, Aug 1 2023 (Reuters) - After months of intensified and increasingly ambitious drills to project power, Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking ahead of Tuesday's 96th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), told China's armed forces to speed up modernisation.

In his address, Xi said the military must broaden its combat capability and readiness, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

"We need to push for new equipment and new forces to accelerate forming combat capabilities and integrate into the combat system," Xi told the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force's western theatre command during a visit last Wednesday, Xinhua reported on Sunday.

Marking the anniversary on Tuesday, an editorial in the official PLA Daily newspaper said the military had "enhanced its ability to carry out diversified military tasks in a wider space".

China has flaunted its military might this year, ramping up military manoeuvres and drills, signalling that its third and most advanced aircraft carrier will soon start sea trials, and tightening its military relationship with Russia.

Some analysts say that the moves reflect China's perception of increased external threats from the United States and its allies, and that Beijing is flexing its military muscle to send political messages.

"The reason is simple: the world is not peaceful and the external environment that China faces continues to deteriorate," said Chinese military analyst Song Zhongping, noting the increasing intensity and frequency of Chinese drills.

The U.S. is also expanding regional deployments and tightening ties with longstanding allies and newer friends - sparking calls from Chinese officials that Washington should steer clear of China's coasts if dialogue between the two militaries is to resume.

Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, told Reuters that China's drills represent more of a political message than a military one.

"Everything the PLA (People's Liberation of Army) does is inherently political," Thompson said. "When the Chinese military conducts an exercise, it is showing force - it is bestowing or sending a message to other countries," he said.

LONG-RANGE CAPABILITIES​

Starting with the military drill in the Taiwan strait after Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in April, China has conducted at least a dozen exercises and patrols from the Sea of Japan to the Western Pacific.

At sea, China is readying its aircraft carriers to extend and assert its power beyond its home waters. Although they remain in training mode, Beijing has deployed the Shandong farther into the Pacific than previous sailings.

Regional military attaches and analysts will be scrutinising the expected sea trial of the more advanced Fujian carrier for signs of technological and operational progress.

State broadcaster CCTV said in June that the sea trial would start "soon" but no date has been fixed.
In the sky, China is fortifying its long-range abilities.

Videos posted online showed China's J-20 stealth jet fighter taking off with domestically produced WS-15 engines, the South China Morning Post reported in early July, while another report said the new engine will put U.S. military bases in South Korea, Japan, and Guam within the range of J-20.

China has worked for decades to build its high-performance jet engines that can compete with Western and Russian models, but the capabilities of the WS-15 are not publicly known.

The refuelling variant of its long-range Y-20 cargo aircraft was also displayed in a formation with jet fighters at a recent air show.

"It delivered a positive signal that Chinese air forces can conduct distant sea training and its systematic and long-distance combat capabilities are getting stronger and stronger," state media cited Shi Yunjia, a J-20 pilot, as saying last week.

Reporting by Greg Torode and Albee Zhang; Editing by

www.reuters.com

China's Xi calls for combat readiness as PLA marks founding anniversary

After months of intensified and increasingly ambitious drills to project power, Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking ahead of Tuesday's 96th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), told China's armed forces to speed up modernisation.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Exclusive: China asks some banks to reduce or delay dollar buying to ease pressure on yuan -sources​

Reuters
August 1, 20236:52 AM EDT
Updated 10 hours ago

Illustration shows U.S. dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes

U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Aug 1 2023 (Reuters) - China's currency regulators have in recent weeks asked some commercial banks to reduce or delay their dollar purchases, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The informal instruction, or the so-called window guidance, was meant to slow the pace of yuan depreciation, the sources said. One source said the regulators were emphatic banks should hold off dollar purchases under their proprietary trading accounts.

Chinese yuan has lost 3.6% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, hitting 7.16 per dollar on Tuesday to be one of Asia's worst performing currencies.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comments, while the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) told Reuters that exchange rate expectations were stable and it will push for a 'risk-neutral' mentality' at companies and financial institutions.

Reporting by Shanghai and Beijing Newsrooms; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: China asks some banks to reduce or delay dollar buying to ease pressure on yuan -sources

China's currency regulators have in recent weeks asked some commercial banks to reduce or delay their dollar purchases, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Data on air bases suggest a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent​

But American aircraft near Taiwan are vulnerable to missile attack​

Jul 27th 2023
The Economist

1690986624376.png

No one save Xi Jinping, China’s president, knows for certain whether he plans to invade Taiwan. The government’s rhetoric, which calls for “peaceful reunification” but does not rule out force, is meticulously vague. But military investments may offer clues about his intentions.

Since Mr Xi became president ten years ago, China’s defence spending after adjusting for military-cost inflation has risen by 39%. But new data on air bases imply that war over Taiwan is just one of numerous Chinese military priorities. Since 2013 China has built fortified shelters for planes in almost every logical area—except those near Taiwan. Unfortunately for Taiwan, America’s efforts to protect its own bases near the island have been lacklustre.

War planners reckon that even amid a conflict, military aircraft spend only one-third of their time flying. While parked, a plane’s stealth and speed count for nought. In some war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 90% of American aircraft losses occur on the ground.

1690986444989.png

Spreading out planes across bases limits vulnerability. But parked planes can be shielded from attacks that evade air defences only in robust buildings that absorb incoming fire, called hardened aircraft shelters (has). Although has do not offer full protection, they reduce damage and make enemies use extra munitions. And the closer air bases with has are to combat zones, the less time protected planes lose in transit. Thomas Shugart of the Centre for a New American Security, a think-tank, has compiled a record of the sites of Asian airports used by air forces, and the number of shelters and runways at each one.

Overall, China has been improving its preparations for a potential air war. In 2012 Taiwan had 306 has, more than China’s 297. Since then China has built 380 more. America has just 15 has within 1,000km (620 miles) of Taiwan, where the risk of attack is most acute, all of them in Okinawa.

However, the locations of China’s new has should let Taiwan breathe easier. In 2012, 70% of China’s has were within 500km of Taiwan. Of those built later, just 9% are. Most new sites sit along China’s borders and in its populous east and south. Construction of air bases lacking has, which still provide extra runways and can hide planes’ locations, has also clustered in these areas. This makes sense for a modernising air force facing a range of threats—not for one focusing mainly on Taiwan. China’s fastest jets take 90 minutes to fly from Beijing to the Taiwan Strait.

Qiqiar_rev-Artboard_1-900.jpg
Qihe air base
image: google earth
qihe2_svg-Artboard_1.png

Qihe air base location
The base has 24 hardened aircraft shelters that are constructed to withstand missile attack
Qihe also has 24 normal aircraft shelters, built in a row by the taxiway
Hardened shelters, by contrast, are spaced out to prevent a single attack hitting more than one

Mr Shugart’s tally may not be complete. China also has bases underground, though such shelters can be vulnerable to bunker-busting bombs and cruise missiles. Moreover, if China plans to rely on missiles rather than planes, it may think it has enough has near Taiwan already. In war games, however, America sometimes makes destroying Chinese air power a top priority.

As for America, failing to protect $100m jets with relatively cheap has, which are especially useful against the cluster munitions that China stockpiles, seems curious. Analysts have long called for new has. But those wanting to pour concrete abroad are up against constituencies that would rather improve bases at home or buy more kit.

America can only guess at China’s plans. Leaving its planes exposed could prove costly if it guesses wrong.

www.economist.com

Data on air bases suggest a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent

But American aircraft near Taiwan are vulnerable to missile attack
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 
Last edited:
jward

jward

passin' thru
Global Times
@globaltimesnews

The Taiwan secessionist Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) candidate for the 2024 regional election Lai Ching-te, also deputy regional leader, will make “stopovers in New York and San Francisco” during an August 12-18 trip to Paraguay, the Taiwan “external affairs authority” announced on Wednesday, and this will become a new incident to worsen tension in the Taiwan Straits and another evidence of US’ encouragement toward Taiwan secessionism, which is an absolute contradiction to US’ promises to China on “opposing Taiwan Independence.” https://globaltimes.cn/page/202308/12
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1686669570592149504
View: https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1686669570592149504?s=20
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Biden delays plans to restock nation’s emergency oil reserve​

The Biden administration is delaying plans to restock the nation’s emergency oil reserve amid a price hike that has pushed oil above $80 a barrel
By MATTHEW DALY Associated Press
August 2, 2023, 4:35 PM

Biden

President Joe Biden responds to reporters as he gets in to his presidential vehicle in Rehoboth Beach, Del., Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

WASHINGTON -- The Biden administration is delaying plans to restock the nation’s emergency oil reserve amid a price hike that has pushed oil above $80 a barrel.

The Energy Department canceled a planned purchase of 6 million barrels for the strategic reserve this week, saying it wants to secure a good deal for taxpayers.

The administration said it remains committed to refilling the reserve, which President Joe Biden significantly drained last year in a bid to stop gasoline prices from rising amid production cuts by OPEC and a ban on Russian oil imports because of the war in Ukraine.

“The DOE remains committed to its replenishment strategy for the SPR, including direct purchases when we can secure a good deal for taxpayers,'' Energy Department Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Bartol said in a statement, using a nickname for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the official name for the emergency stockpile.

Officials also will use targeted exchange returns and cancellation of planned oil sales "where drawdown is unnecessary, in coordination with Congress,” Bartol said.

Biden withdrew 180 million barrels from the strategic reserve starting in March 2022, bringing the stockpile to its lowest level since the 1980s.

Biden’s drawdown brought the reserve to about half its approximately 700-million barrel capacity as he sought to tame high gasoline prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tapping the reserve is among the few actions a president can take by himself to try to control inflation, an election-year liability for the party in control of the White House.

The Energy Department began refilling the reserve earlier this year, purchasing 6.3 million barrels and canceling 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were set to occur in the next three years. Congress approved the sales cancellations in a spending bill last December.

The price for the oil purchase was not announced, but benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil was selling at about $74 per barrel when the transaction was approved. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil was selling at $81.85 per barrel on Wednesday amid tighter global supplies.

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, have risen to about $3.80 per gallon, up from $3.53 per gallon in mid-May, according to the AAA auto club. Prices peaked at just over $5 per gallon in June 2022.

An Energy spokeswoman emphasized that the U.S. maintains plentiful reserves that “stand ready should there be an emergency” that requires officials to tap into the stockpile held in huge salt caverns in Louisiana and Texas.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has said she intends to refill the reserve, although she told CNN last month that it might not be completed during Biden's current term, which ends in January 2025.

abcnews.go.com

Biden delays plans to restock nation’s emergency oil reserve

The Biden administration is delaying plans to restock the nation’s emergency oil reserve amid a price hike that has pushed oil above $80 a barrel
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

What war mobilisation might look like in China​

Certain preparations would be obvious weeks before an attack on Taiwan​

Special forces soldiers in Guangxi
image: getty images
Jul 27th 2023
The Economist

China’s war games are highly visible. Witness recent maritime drills with Russia and air drills with Thailand, as well as an exercise to transport troops using a passenger ferry in advance of Taiwan’s own war exercises, which started on July 24th.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has pledged to achieve the “peaceful reunification” of the mainland with Taiwan, yet some commentators fear that China may instead try to take Taiwan by force. Any such effort would be hard to hide.

If China wanted to invade Taiwan, it would be a “national, all-of-regime undertaking”, says John Culver, a former cia man now with the Atlantic Council, an American think-tank. On the eve of invasion the air force would probably commandeer all of China’s air space, causing disruption that would be obvious almost immediately to the Chinese populace at large and to observers abroad. Security and personnel at air bases and ports, key infrastructure sites and along China’s land borders would be increased. Military outposts in Djibouti and Tajikistan would be put on high alert.

Much of this activity would be visible from satellite imagery, though China would probably try to interfere with that image-collecting. In the days before an attack Chinese satellites would cluster around American ones, aiming to bombard them. In the final hour or so before mission launch, cyber-attacks would probably try to knock out other countries’ capacity to see what the Chinese armed forces were doing.

The logistical build-up would already have been visible to outsiders weeks earlier. In advance of z-day, as Ian Easton labelled it in “The Chinese Invasion Threat”, the whole of China’s south-eastern coast closest to Taiwan would be turned into “a well-stocked war camp”, with razor wire spooled along the shore line, fleets of civilian and military ships, and sprawling military encampments housing a vastly expanded array of troops and all their equipment. A steady trail of rail and freight transport with a build-up of military and other vehicles would ferry people, weapons, munitions and supplies.

Commercial and coastguard vessels would be commandeered for military use, along with many civilian road vehicles. Field hospitals would be set up, just as Russia did near the border with Ukraine about two months before its attack last year.

Civilian life would soon be disrupted. Chinese experts and officials would probably be recalled from abroad, and resident experts and elites stopped from leaving the country, as would their families. Capital controls would be strict and extensive. There might be a nationwide blood drive—and blood banks might be moved closer to potential battle zones near the coast only days before an attack. Virtual private networks, which millions of Chinese employ to leap over the internet firewall, would probably become ever harder to use.

Signals of the government’s intentions might be noticeable even earlier. The most visible would involve propaganda campaigns. An attack would represent a wholesale change in how the Chinese Communist Party legitimises its rule at home, from economic growth to union with Taiwan, says Mr Culver. Chinese citizens, who are taught from childhood that Taiwan is an inalienable part of “the motherland”, would be subjected to intense and ubiquitous public-information campaigns to that effect, as well as dark warnings about violent, pro-independence activists in Taiwan. A simultaneous campaign to influence opinion in Taiwan, particularly through social networks and pro-China parts of its media, might stress America’s unwillingness to defend Taiwan, while lauding the wealth, health and happiness of mainlanders. There would be disinformation campaigns, too.

On the military side, munitions production would sharply increase in the six months or more before any planned attack, says Mr Culver. Training exercises would halt, so that major equipment could be maintained. All leave for the armed forces would be cancelled and the demobilisation of recruits on short-term contracts would be suspended, as happened in 2007 in the run-up to elections in Taiwan, when China’s leaders feared that a pro-independence candidate would win.

High-level meetings in Beijing and around command centres would sharply increase. Education and information campaigns for the armed forces would change, too. For most members of China’s armed forces it would be the first time that they were preparing actually to kill.

www.economist.com

What war mobilisation might look like in China

Certain preparations would be obvious weeks before an attack on Taiwan
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 
Last edited:
jward

jward

passin' thru

Mainland China airs documentary signalling military preparation for Taiwan attack and willingness to sacrifice​


  • Chasing Dreams programme marks PLA’s 96th anniversary with eight-part series showing readiness to fight ‘at any second’
  • A stealth fighter jet pilot and a navy frogman among PLA personnel shown pledging to lay their lives on the line for reunification

Beijing is trying to send strong signals about its preparation for an attack on Taiwan, with People’s Liberation Army soldiers pledging to sacrifice themselves.
The pledges are part of the eight-episode documentary series Zhu Meng, or “chasing dreams”, aired on state broadcaster CCTV from Tuesday to mark the PLA’s 96th anniversary and show the readiness of military personnel to fight “at any second”.
In one instance, a pilot in one of the PLA’s most advanced stealth fighter jets vows to launch a suicide attack if necessary.

“My fighter would be my last missile, rushing towards the enemy if in a real battle I had used up all my ammunition,” said Li Peng, a J-20 pilot from Wang Hai Squadron, an ace unit under the PLA Eastern Theatre Command that serves as the mainland’s primary force against Taiwan.




Zuo Feng, a frogman of the PLA Navy’s minesweeper unit, echoes the sentiment.
“If war broke out and the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we will use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our landing forces,” Zuo said.

The documentary features the personal stories of dozens of PLA soldiers across different services and locations, shows footage of military exercises, especially around Taiwan, and reiterates “the centennial goal of the PLA must be realised”.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...cation-taiwan?module=hard_link&pgtype=article​

Beijing regards self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province and insists it would never renounce the use of force to take it back. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but many are opposed to a change of status quo by force.
Concerns about a conflict over the island have risen as cross-strait ties and relations between Beijing and Washington have worsened.
Every Saturday




A weekly curated round-up of social, political and economic stories from China and how they impact the world.
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy

Some observers, such as former US Indo-Pacific Command chief Philip Davidson, have said the PLA is likely to make the move by 2027, the deadline of the PLA’s centennial goal of becoming a world-class military, a period named the Davidson window.

The documentary series offers a view – albeit restricted – of the PLA’s operation scenarios, such as seizing air superiority, sea control and information tech suppression before launching an amphibious landing.
Part of the series concentrates on Joint Sword, an exercise that took place around Taiwan in April as a show of force in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the US.

Wang Xinjie, a member of the PLA’s amphibious assault group, is seen practising a group charge towards the beach in an amphibious vehicle, with fire cover from bombers, land and ship-launched missiles, rockets and helicopters.
“I would like to go and see the other side of the strait,” Wang said. “I have been preparing for that day.”
Li Yuantong, who at the age of 27 is said to be one of the PLA Air Force’s youngest air mission commanders, invented a “double-bombing” tactic to effectively destroy hidden underground targets, according to the documentary.

He was filmed in a J-16 fighter cockpit with a view of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range while singing “My war eagle is flying around the Treasure Island”, a patriotic Eastern Theatre Command song about its Taiwan patrols.

“If there is a day I could really feel proud of myself, I think it would be when our country is reunified,” Li said.
The documentary also shows footage of the PLA’s Shandong aircraft carrier releasing four J-15 jet fighters in attack formation while sailing through the Taiwan Strait this year, and said PLA Air Force fighters had driven away foreign warplanes in a game of chicken by conducting direct head-on manoeuvres until near collision.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ackage-taiwan?module=hard_link&pgtype=article​

It included a training session for a “most brutal” urban assault amid Washington’s suggestion, spurred by lessons from the Ukraine war, for Taiwan to buy cheap asymmetric weapons such as drones, land and sea mines and handheld missiles, and aided by trained civilians.

“As for urban combat, the meat grinder of modern warfare, we have to very carefully calculate,” said Fan Lizhong, the special tactics unit commander.
“It would definitely be incredibly painful to face the casualties of our comrades on the battlefield one after another, but as a commander not only must I have the judgment and ability to respond calmly to emergencies, but also the ideas and awareness for joint warfare under modern conditions, and always be ready to fight.”
Military commentator Song Zhongping said the documentary was intended to showcase the PLA’s confidence against the Taiwanese defence force but its messages were also intended for the US.
www.scmp.com

Mainland China airs documentary signalling preparation for Taiwan attack

A stealth fighter jet pilot and a navy frogman are among PLA personnel shown pledging to lay their lives on the line for reunification.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan to station 5,000 more troops in Taipei to boost 'decapitation resistance'​


Taiwan News

2–3 minutes



TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — To improve its “anti-decapitation“ strength, Taiwan will station 5,000 additional military police in Taipei beginning in January 2024.

In military terms, “decapitation” is a strategy that aims to destroy the political and military leadership of an enemy force to gain control over a territory. Military police battalions are responsible for the protection of the Presidential Office and other key political institutions in Taipei.

The proposed increase means there would be a total of 10,000 military police posted in Taipei by January.

A new battalion, stationed in Taipei’s south, will be added as part of the increase, CNA reported. A source familiar with the matter said that after the military conducted a review, a decision was made to add the additional battalion in Taipei, though the decision has not yet been finalized.

The military police currently have five battalions stationed around Taiwan that protect the Presidential Office, the president, and the president's residence, as well as other senior leaders. The force also includes an armored battalion in Dazhi and an artillery unit in Shilin.

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Taiwan to station 5,000 more troops in Taipei to boost 'decapitation resistance' | Taiwan News | 2023-08-07 13:59:00

Taiwan capital set to add 6th military police battalion in Taipei's south | 2023-08-07 13:59:00
www.taiwannews.com.tw www.taiwannews.com.tw
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top