WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Biden sends unofficial delegation to Taiwan in 'personal signal'
By David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina
4 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Former U.S. Senator Chris Dodd and former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and James Steinberg headed to Taiwan on Tuesday at President Joe Biden’s request, in what a White House official called a “personal signal” of the president’s commitment to the Chinese-claimed island and its democracy.


A senior Biden administration official told Reuters the dispatch of the “unofficial” delegation comes as the United States and Taiwan mark the 42nd anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act, for which Biden voted when he was a U.S. senator.
The delegation will meet with senior Taiwanese officials and followed “a long-standing bipartisan tradition of U.S. administrations sending high-level, unofficial delegations to Taiwan,” the official said.
The official called it “a personal signal” from the president, who took office in January.
“The selection of these three individuals – senior statesmen who are longtime friends of Taiwan and personally close with President Biden – sends an important signal about the U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy.”
 

jward

passin' thru
Taiwan invasion unlikely for now - but there are other ways China can turn the screw
Tom Cheshire

5-6 minutes


The good news is that there are only five months when weather conditions are good enough to mount an invasion of Taiwan, according to Ian Easton, the author of The Chinese Invasion Threat.
The bad news is that two of them are April and May.
So when Taiwan reported that 25 Chinese air force aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers, entered its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) this week, fears of attack are front of mind.
It was the largest incursion by the Chinese military to date.
US Admiral Philip Davidson - Washington's top military officer in the Asia-Pacific region - recently said he was worried China could invade Taiwan in the next six years.

Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan's new defence minister, responded: "His evaluation says six years, but my concerns include six hours."
The foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said this month that in the event of an attack Taiwan would fight "to the very last day".
More from China
The famous Taipei 101 in the capital

Image: It's unclear how far the US would go if the threat to Taiwan reaches a new level
There is belligerence from the Chinese side. A defence ministry spokesperson said that a declaration by Taiwan of independence "means war".
Hu Xijin, the editor of a nationalistic Chinese tabloid, said that the Chinese military could fly directly over the island of Taiwan itself, and if Taiwan fired at those planes, China would attack.
Hu's attention-seeking provocations should always be taken with a pinch of salt but they show how the conversation around Taiwan is evolving.
But although the intensity is increasing, in many ways we are still in the status quo that has existed for decades.
China's constitution, adopted in 1949, says Taiwan is part of its "sacred territory" and details the "inviolable duty" of "reunifying the motherland".

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On the question of "Taiwan independence", China as far back as 2005 passed a law that formally authorised military force if Taiwan was "separated" from China.
Taiwan has its own constitution and a highly functioning democracy - rated above Japan and South Korea by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The election of President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 led to an escalation in pressure from China. What we're seeing now is best viewed as the latest development in that continuous period.

A pilot prepares to take off on a F-CK-1 Ching-kuo IDF at an Air Force base in Tainan

Image: Taiwan spent $900m scrambling jets to intercept Chinese planes last year
And as China has increased its attrition strategy, the US has increased its ties with the island, which in turn leads to more Chinese pressure.
That pressure is designed to take a psychological and logistical toll on Taiwan.
In 2020, Taiwan spent some $900m scrambling fighters to meet Chinese sorties and said it would no longer dispatch jets to meet every incursion, instead tracking Chinese aircraft with land-based missiles. Expect that pressure to continue.
But a full-scale invasion by China remains unlikely in the short term. That would require a massive build up of forces, easily detectable by US and Taiwanese monitoring.
There are options short of invasion that are still worrying.
China could blockade the island economically, or seize some of its outlying territory. The Kinmen Islands, administered by Taiwan, are barely a mile from China.
Any such move would be a test of the US resolve to defend Taiwan, perhaps analogous to Russia's seizing of the Crimean Peninsula.
Would an aggressive Chinese move, short of full invasion, prompt the US to respond militarily?
Right now, no one knows. That means it would be hugely destabilising.
For all the pressures of the current moment, it at least fits a known, established pattern - and is far preferable to an escalation, the consequences of which would be difficult to predict.
 

jward

passin' thru





Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

1m

#China Fighter Jets Will Fly Over #Taiwan to Declare Sovereignty, State Media Says "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait," A provocation to start a war.....
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1382204665421459456?s=20

2) Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" if relations between Washington and Taipei continue to improve, a prominent state media figure said after Beijing sent 25 warplanes toward the island on Monday.
3) Hu Xijin, chief editor of China's newspaper the Global Times, fired back at recent comments by Secretary Antony Blinken and said the military operation was a response to the State Department's loosening of interaction guidelines between officials from the U.S. and Taiwan.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

1m

#China Fighter Jets Will Fly Over #Taiwan to Declare Sovereignty, State Media Says "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait," A provocation to start a war.....
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1382204665421459456?s=20

2) Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" if relations between Washington and Taipei continue to improve, a prominent state media figure said after Beijing sent 25 warplanes toward the island on Monday.
3) Hu Xijin, chief editor of China's newspaper the Global Times, fired back at recent comments by Secretary Antony Blinken and said the military operation was a response to the State Department's loosening of interaction guidelines between officials from the U.S. and Taiwan.
Merde......
 

Old Gringo

Senior Member
Russia, China warn Biden at same time to stay out of Ukraine, Taiwan
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. (Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia/Released)
April 13, 2021
Ryan Morgan

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On Tuesday, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned President Joe Biden’s administration against getting involved in Ukraine, amid Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border. Also on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warned the Biden administration against getting involved in Taiwan.

According to Reuters, Russia’s Ryabkov said “The United States is our adversary and does everything it can to undermine Russia’s position on the world stage. We do not see any other elements in their approach. Those are our conclusions.”


Ryabkov went on to say, “We warn the United States that it will be better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea coast. It will be for their own good.”

On the same day Ryabkov warned the U.S. and other NATO nations against supporting Ukraine, China’s Zhao warned the U.S. against “playing with fire” by interacting with Taiwan.


“The Taiwan question concerns China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and core interests. There is zero room for compromise and not an inch to give,” Zhao said during a Tuesday press conference. “We urge the U.S. side to grasp the situation, earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, refrain from playing with fire, immediately stop official contact with Taiwan in any form, prudently and properly handle Taiwan-related issues, and avoid sending any wrong signals to the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, lest it should shake the foundation of China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

While Taiwan governs itself as an independent nation, China maintains a sovereignty claim over the island and the U.S. has recognized China’s sovereignty claim through the One-China policy, though U.S. administrations have had informal interactions with Taiwanese officials.

In December, Russia and China announced a new pact strengthening their strategic partnership, and the timing of Russia and China’s warnings to the U.S. on Tuesday is a sign of their shared interests.


Ryabkov comments come amid reports that two U.S. warships will enter the Black Sea, which neighbors Russia and Ukraine, this week. The U.S. has already provided the notice to Turkey to sail through the Bosporus Strait, satisfying a 1936 treaty condition on international warships entering the Black Sea.

“They continue to provide supplies, increasing the amount of assistance. The United States and other NATO countries are deliberately turning Ukraine into a powder keg,” Ryabkov also said, according to Russia’s TASS News Agency. “We would like to reiterate that NATO countries, who use demagogic rhetoric to speculate about protecting Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, should think about containing the bellicose spirit of their clients in Kiev and ensuring the implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures that our Kiev neighbors are blatantly ignoring.”

Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, during a Sunday interview with NBC’s Meet The Press, that “there’ll be consequences” if Russia acts “recklessly or aggressively” against Ukraine.

The U.S. State Department also announced it would “liberalize” guidance on U.S. contacts with Taiwanese officials.

China has previously lashed out at U.S. efforts to loosen restrictions on diplomatic interactions with Taiwan. In January, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo similarly loosened U.S. diplomatic restrictions on Taiwan interactions and then-U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft announced she would visit with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen in Taiwan. Craft ultimately canceled her trip after China warned the U.S. would pay a heavy price for the high-level diplomatic interaction.




americanmilitarynews.com


Russia, China warn Biden at same time to stay out of Ukraine, Taiwan
On Tuesday, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned President Joe Biden's administration against getting involved in Ukraine, amid Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border. Also on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warned the Biden administration...

Did they inform Jill, (Venus), Bidet to stay in his own sandbox ?
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Australian Video:

An anthropologist from Mars writing in their notebook: "And here we have an example of the Earthlings consecrating their war ships with ancient fertility rites..."
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

1h


5 #Chinese military aircraft enter #Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) Taiwan sent planes, issued radio warnings & deployed air defense missile systems to track the PLAAF planes. This is the 11th intrusion this month. https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4176513
Four People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Shenyang J-16 fighter jets and one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane flew into the southwest corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ, according to the Ministry of National Defense (MND).
 

jward

passin' thru
with Biden, I honestly pray all he EVER does is talk. Not that I'm overly impressed with Suga, but. . .
We're fixin' to have a colossal mess on our hands eh? :(

One slight bright side is that I hear genuine leftist out of the covid community lamenting their choice of Biden already... Maybe he is our secret weapon to finally break through to people?

Another bright side is that it was siad upthread china could only attack five months out of the year, and two of those months are april and may.... so we're steadily running out the clock on that option? (not sure when other 3 months are...)
 
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jward

passin' thru
Is China really about to invade Taiwan?
Analysts say US military’s warnings about rising threat are more a reflection of the deterioration in the US-China relationship rather than any change on the ground.

Taiwan is stepping up its preparedness as it faces an escalating number of incursions into its airspace by Chinese aircraft [Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]

Taiwan is stepping up its preparedness as it faces an escalating number of incursions into its airspace by Chinese aircraft [Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]

By
Erin Hale
14 Apr 2021

Taipei, Taiwan – For the first time in more than half a century, the United States and Japan are expected this week to make a joint statement on the security of the Taiwan Strait following a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

While largely symbolic, the statement would be an indication of increasing concern about the security of the democratically-run island amid dire public warnings from senior US military officials about the threat of an invasion by Beijing, which claims the island as its own.
Keep reading

‘Personal signal’: US’s Biden sends ex-officials to Taiwan‘Don’t play with fire’: China warns US on TaiwanChina sends 25 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone: TaipeiBlinken warns China that action against Taiwan would be ‘mistake’
Admiral John Aquilino recently told a Senate Armed Services committee that taking Taiwan is a “number one” priority for China’s Communist Party, while US Asia Pacific commander Philip Davidson has said publicly that China could invade in the next six years.

Such fears may seem justified by the threatening tone of the Chinese state media and an escalating number of missions by PLA aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).
But on the ground in Taiwan, people are neither running for one of the island’s 117,000 working bomb shelters nor enlisting en masse.
Having lived under the threat of Chinese military action for the past 70 years, the island’s 23 million people have come to understand what they consider the strange paradox of Taiwan’s existence: even as China’s military might grows, invasion does not necessarily come any closer.

Some experts believe much of the threat assessment by the US military may actually be more of a reflection of a shift in US perceptions about China amid the deteriorating relationship between the world’s two economic giants.

Taiwan has been modernising its military, including developing new submarines and warships [Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]“The (Chinese Communist Party’s) hopes for unification with Taiwan have been clear for decades, and (President) Xi Jinping has made clear during his term that use of force is on the table,” said Eric Lee, a research associate at the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, Virginia.

“This challenge is nothing new. Rather, it reflects an updated threat perception of the CCP and PLA in the context of US strategic competition with China.”
Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), agrees.
The assessments, she says, are based not on intelligence but an analysis of the military balance between the US and China.
‘More difficult than D-Day’
China has stepped up its activities around Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen was first elected president back in 2016.

While Tsai’s politics at home are viewed as largely maintaining the status quo in Taiwan’s complex relationship with China, abroad she is associated with a push for a unique Taiwanese identity that is separate from its historic ties to China.
Her politics and her administration’s close relationship with the US have angered Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own despite having never ruled the island.

As part of Taiwan’s push for more political space, Tsai has sought to bolster Taiwan’s defences by raising the defence budget, reforming the reserves, improving its image from historical associations with the martial law era, and purchasing billions of dollars in arms from the US since taking office.

President Tsai was first elected in 2016 and has faced an increasingly assertive China, which claims Taiwan as its own [File: Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]Her administration has also seen a push to revive Taiwan’s domestic weapons manufacturing, including locally-made submarines, armoured vehicles, and military aircraft, according to the Ministry of Defense.

“The CCP has not given up on the use of force to invade Taiwan, and the Chinese military has continued to strengthen its combat readiness, and readiness to increase the CCP’s use of force,” the ministry said in a statement to Al Jazeera.
“There is always a risk of seizing Taiwan. Whether it is a sudden attack… or a full-scale invasion, it will seriously impact the country’s survival and development. Therefore, supporting the defense operations of various military building and preparation work is the core task of the national army.”

In late March, the Ministry of Defense said incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ had become so frequent that it would no longer scramble to meet the aircraft each time and would instead track them with missiles. The Ministry said the decision was made on the assessment that the flights were consuming resources and increasing the risk of a miscalculation or accident.
And while some, particularly in the US, have begun to speculate that an amphibious invasion by the PLA is somewhere on the horizon, most experts take a more measured approach, stressing that an invasion of Taiwan carries significant risks for China.
First, its forces would have to cross the 180km (100-mile) Taiwan Strait with more than 100,000 soldiers and supplies, according to Michael Tsai, who served as Taiwan’s vice minister of defence and then minister of defence between 2004 and 2008.

En route, they would face aerial and naval bombardment and, if they managed to land, strong local resistance.
“If Taiwan was attacked by the PLA, more than two-thirds of young people would take affirmative action to resist Chinese action,” the former defence minister said. “Taiwan is a free and democratic country. We like to live in a peaceful coexistence with China but if we were attacked we have to react for some defences. Of course, will suffer a lot. Many young people will lose their life, but so will the PLA.”

Taiwanese soldiers in action during the National Army Lunar New Year’s Military Exercise for Preparedness Enhancement inside a military base in Hsinchu in January [Ritchie B Tongo/EPA]There would be other issues to contend with as well, including challenging terrain, unpredictable weather patterns and even typhoons.

For Taiwan expert and historian Bill Sharp, a former visiting scholar at National Taiwan University, such a manoeuvre would be “more difficult than a D-Day Landing” due to Taiwan’s geography, rough waters, and unreliable weather patterns. Its coastline also offers few suitable beaches, he said, for landing “armoured personnel carriers, tanks, artillery, or large numbers of invading troops.”

A missile attack, meanwhile, would lead to a far great of a loss of human life and destruction of infrastructure and would fuel opposition to any invading force.
“China would prefer to rule Taiwan as it physically is,” he said. “With their society violently attacked, Taiwanese will to fight will be piqued.”

Unknown ‘unknowns’
An invasion could also draw in Taiwan’s closest allies, such as the United States and Japan, posing too many unknowns for China’s leadership.
While the US is not guaranteed to come to the island’s defence, it has promised to help the island maintain “sufficient self-defence capabilities” as part of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
CSIS’s Glaser says she does not believe China is yet ready to take such drastic action.

“Every Chinese leader has said reunification is inevitable,” she said. “Xi Jinping’s pronouncements on Taiwan aren’t very different from his predecessors,” she said, adding that China’s latest Five-Year-Plan called for the “peaceful development of Cross-Strait relations” with Taiwan.
Some experts believe much of the threat assessment by the US military may actually reflect a domestic shift within the US in perceptions of China. As China’s relationship with the US has soured, the threat perception of the PLA has also risen, said Project 2049’s Lee.

Mechanics repair F-CK-1 Ching-kuo Indigenous Defence Fighters at an air force base in Tainan in January. The island has stopped scrambling for every Chinese incursion, instead tracking the aircraft with missiles [File: Ann Wang/Reuters]Others also warn that the US’s concern is less for the future of the people of Taiwan than reflective of anxiety about its Island Chain Strategy, a defensive strategy incorporating Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and other islands to contain China’s expansion into the Pacific and close to the US mainland.

“The US knows that if China took the dominant position in the Asia-Pacific, it would have a detrimental effect against US national interests, so the US will try to defend the ‘first island chain’. Taiwan is in a strategic position as part of the first island chain. If Taiwan lost to China, it could become a PLA naval base that would threaten not only Japan but also US national security interests,” former defence minister Tsai said.
However, experts say Taiwan’s outlying islands could still be targeted.

“To seize Taiwan’s outer islands has always been on PLA’s practice agenda. If you take a look at geography, Taiwan’s outer islands are spread out, the ability to support one another is limited,” said James Huang, a retired Taiwanese lieutenant colonel turned military columnist.
China could easily blockade Taiwan’s port in Kaohsiung by taking its 240-hectare (593-acre) Pratas Island off the coast of Hong Kong or strengthen its position in the South China Sea by invading Taiping Island – also known as Ita Abu – in the Spratly Archipelago.
Huang said other relatively easy targets would include islands close to the Chinese coast including Liang Island and Gaodeng Island, which have few military personnel and are difficult to resupply by Taiwan’s main island.

Psychological warfare
Even if Taiwan may not face its doomsday scenario in the near future, it still faces a range of other challenges.
“Taiwan is no longer China’s main target, but the US is,” Huang said. “In terms of the biggest threat to Taiwan from China, it definitely is not the traditional military invasion.”
He believes Beijing’s focus is crippling Taiwan through economics and trade.

Faced with a weak economy and a strong neighbour next door, during non-COVID times, Taiwan faces a significant brain drain to China with hundreds of thousands opting for more competitive opportunities there.
“By increasing Taiwan’s economic dependence on China, it’s like the boiling frog syndrome, Taiwanese people will let their guard down,” he said.
As well as the regular airspace incursions, Taiwan has also been subject to psychological warfare from Chinese influence operations in the business and political world, and the continual push to squeeze Taiwan out of any international space, from the United Nations to the International Civil Aviation Organisation.

Former US Senator Chris Dodd, former US Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg and former US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage walk with Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu and American Institute in Taiwan Director Brent Christensen as they arrive in Taipei on Wednesday [Central News Agency/Pool via Reuters]Though less-headline grabbing than a flotilla of PLA aircraft carriers, it could still have a powerful impact, warns Tsai.

“To me and many strategists, we sense that China knows that taking actual military action would be the worst scenario for them as well,” he said. “Therefore, they are taking softer power action, including cyber warfare, psychological warfare, media warfare by penetrating Taiwan and getting disinformation into the newspaper to try to influence and mislead the population and also try to divide them.”
Glaser says rather than fixating on the potential for a Chinese invasion, the US would do better to support Taiwan against many of these other threats.

“The correct policy response by the US is not only to bolster military deterrence – we must make credible our ability to intervene and impose high costs on a PLA invading force – but we must also strengthen the US-Taiwan economic relationship, help Taiwan diversify its trade ties, and knit together a coalition of countries that will promote Taiwan’s participation in the international community and speak out in support of its democracy,” she said.
There are already signs that might be happening.
On Wednesday, as China conducted what it said were “combat drills” near Taiwan, Biden dispatched a delegation of trusted former senior officials to Taiwan. They will meet President Tsai on Thursday.
A statement with Japan will be another part of that process.
Source: Al Jazeera

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Will the US stick with Taiwan?
From: Inside Story
Will the US stick with Taiwan?
Landslide victory for Taiwan’s pro-independence president as voters reject closer ties with China.
24:45

12 Jan 2020

Posted for fair use
View: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1382553886330867712
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Biden sends unofficial delegation to Taiwan in 'personal signal'
By David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina
4 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Former U.S. Senator Chris Dodd and former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and James Steinberg headed to Taiwan on Tuesday at President Joe Biden’s request, in what a White House official called a “personal signal” of the president’s commitment to the Chinese-claimed island and its democracy.


A senior Biden administration official told Reuters the dispatch of the “unofficial” delegation comes as the United States and Taiwan mark the 42nd anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act, for which Biden voted when he was a U.S. senator.
The delegation will meet with senior Taiwanese officials and followed “a long-standing bipartisan tradition of U.S. administrations sending high-level, unofficial delegations to Taiwan,” the official said.
The official called it “a personal signal” from the president, who took office in January.
“The selection of these three individuals – senior statesmen who are longtime friends of Taiwan and personally close with President Biden – sends an important signal about the U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy.”

Well if you're going to perturb the dragon, there's no sense in doing it half way. They might as well be in for a pound sterling in thalers. Send a PAC-3 battery to set up someplace useful or make it very clear that the SSGNs and SSBNs are stalking the region.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
In reference to the tweet from Sutton on the PLANs carrier building program in post #623....




If they're going with steam catapults, that means the launched aircraft can carry more payload and fuel than with the ski-jump. As for tonnage, and the assumption at the moment that they are not going to nuclear power yet, their power projection aims at this time are not as wide as the USN if for no other reason being the time and distances to travel to just get on station from a friendly port (either in mainland China, Pakistan or Iran) are a lot less at this point.
 

jward

passin' thru
They were having interesting discussion re: that earlier this evening on this thread:


https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1382553886330867712?s=20

In reference to the tweet from Sutton on the PLANs carrier building program in post #623..

If they're going with steam catapults, that means the launched aircraft can carry more payload and fuel than with the ski-jump. As for tonnage, and the assumption at the moment that they are not going to nuclear power yet, their power projection aims at this time are not as wide as the USN if for no other reason being the time and distances to travel to just get on station from a friendly port (either in mainland China, Pakistan or Iran) are a lot less at this point.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Ajai Shukla
@ajaishukla

1m


"Canberra prepares for Taiwan conflict as tensions escalate" Nice headline, but let's get real. Australia isn't going to confront China over Taiwan Nor does it need to, from its safe distance. India is the only Quad member up-front-and-close with China.
View: https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1383289986116558856?s=20
India is the only one other than the US who has the ability to put a nuclear payload into any piece of acerage in the PRC they care to. Japan, Taiwan, RoK and Australia have the technical ability to independently develop that capability but the political will and time necessary are definitely wanting.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical

4h


fig (a) why China can't invade Taiwan until the fall. Typhoons would make any amphibious landing very dangerous. Typhoon season really isn't over until October.
1618830539452.png




Arescio
@Arescio1


Replying to
@Osinttechnical
April and October are the most likely months for an invasion due to weather, but if they attacked in april, maybe the typhoon season would be a tactical advantage as it would slow the allied forces?
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

11s


#Taiwan says seeking AGM-158 long-range cruise missiles from #US While Taiwan is developing its own long-range missiles to strike back deep into #China in the event of war, it has also looked to the #UnitedStates to help provide it more advanced weaponry.
2) Asked in parliament which weapons systems Taiwan wants to buy but the United States has not yet said it can, Lee Shih-chiang, head of Taiwan's defence ministry's strategic planning department, named Lockheed Martin Corp's AGM-158.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1384102684651790338?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru




Jan Nicolas
@phoyager



“The signal given by the military drills is that we are determined to stop Taiwan independence, and stop Taiwan from working with the US. We are doing it with action,” spokesman Ma Xiaoguang declared.
 

jward

passin' thru
China declares war is preferable over closer Taiwan-US ties
An expert has warned the risk of a full-scale war is increasing which an Aussie general says would be “disastrous”.


Jamie Seidel

JamieSeidel

April 19, 20211:28pm

China's new navy fleet will rival U.S. and Russia


Beijing has declared it prefers the idea of war over allowing closer Taiwan-US ties.

A strike force of 25 Chinese fighters, bombers and surveillance aircraft threatened Taiwan’s borders on Monday as a high-level delegation of US officials visited the island.
Beijing’s reaction was predictably bellicose

Its Taiwan Affairs Office announced the combat aircraft sortie was to tell Taipei that any further attempt to strengthen its relationship with Washington “would fail”.
“The signal given by the military drills is that we are determined to stop Taiwan independence, and stop Taiwan from working with the US. We are doing it with action,” spokesman Ma Xiaoguang declared. “We do not promise to abandon the use of force, and retain the option of taking all necessary measures.”

RELATED: Country that could stop China
25 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW*2, KJ-500 AEW&C, J-10*4, J-16*14 and H-6K*4) entered #Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on Apr. 12, 2021. Please check our official website for more information: 中華民國國防部-全球資訊網-即時軍事動態pic.twitter.com/gPG3CKYpf9
— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C. (@MoNDefense) April 12, 2021
The Chinese Communist Party-controlled Global Times stated the military posturing “could be a rehearsal of a reunification-by-force operation”.
China’s first aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escort circled Taiwan simultaneously as the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its battle group entered the South China Sea. As the two fleets converged, 25 Chinese aircraft – including 14 J-16 strike fighters and four H-6K strategic bombers – pushed their way into airspace over Taiwan’s nearby Pratas Island.
RELATED: ‘Stability over’: China stand-off escalates
NED-2585-Pratas atoll - Gateway to the South China Sea - 0



“The exercise conducted by the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) served as a warning to Taiwan secessionists and the US after the two had made a series of provocative moves,” the Global Times reads.
It added “the PLA is taking pragmatic steps to make sure it can effectively reunify the island of Taiwan if it comes to that”.

Battlelines drawn
On Thursday, Australian chief of defence General Angus Campbell warned a conflict over Taiwan would be “disastrous” for the region.
“Australia is very clear that the future of China and Taiwan needs to be a future that is resolved peacefully,” he told a virtual gathering. “There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but it’s a hard path and it needs to be worked.”
NED-2868-Australia's top 25 exports to China 2019-2020 - 0



It’s a scenario fraught with risk, leading Communist Party media commentator Hu Xijin admits. “As the situation in the Straits has deteriorated, the risk of a full-scale war in the Straits due to accidental minor incidents is increasing”.
But he also declared: “The PLA is prepared to send warplanes to fly across the island of Taiwan to declare sovereignty in case of further hostile behaviour by DPP authorities. It is also prepared to punish those ‘Taiwan secessionists’ fundamentally if the island’s troops open fire first.”
RELATED: China’s major move puts US to shame

And Beijing appears determined to ramp up the pressure.
“The external forces using Taiwan to control China and those independence camps using force to seek independence are doomed to fail in the face of the 1.4 billion Chinese people’s strong determination,” Ma said.
The Global Times backed this up by quoting Communist Party officials saying the military activity was set to increase.
“Monday’s exercise was characterised by a large number of aircraft, and as the PLA deepens its regular, combat-scenario drills near the island of Taiwan, the scale could continue to expand in the future,” military analyst Fu Qianshao is quoted as saying. “As this is normal, related parties should get used to it if they insist on provoking (us)”.

Fighting words
“The United States has hyped up the so-called ‘China military threat; and kept sending wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, which speaks volumes about its sinister intentions,” said Ma.
But, at the same time, the Communist Party’s Global Times hyped its combat capabilities.
“The exercise could be a rehearsal of its combat plan over the Taiwan island, and it could feature air superiority seizure, and attack on land and maritime targets, including warships of interfering foreign countries,” military commentator Song Zhongping said. “PLA’s Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft target foreign submarines, the KJ-500 commands the battlefield, the H-6Ks attack maritime and land targets, the J-10s seize air superiority, while the J-16s plays a multirole of both aerial combat and attack.”
The aircraft carrier Liaoning (Hull 16). Picture: PLA

The aircraft carrier Liaoning (Hull 16). Picture: PLASource:Supplied
The PLA’s deployment of its most modern weaponry coincided with the passage of the USS Roosevelt and the arrival of the assault ship USS Makin Island for the annual Balikatan military exercises with Hanoi.
The deployment of the Liaoning and the air combat force “demonstrated that the PLA is capable of cutting off foreign interventions in the Taiwan region if the situation arises, as it has a powerful aerial combat system to drive away foreign maritime forces, including aircraft carrier strike groups,” the Global Times quoted an anonymous source as saying.
Commentator Hu declared “the US military’s arrogance … has long been shattered in the coastal waters of China. The US military cannot do whatever it wants in China’s surrounding waters where the PLA is capable of substantially subduing US impetuousness”.
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Building fait accompli
Ma, speaking on behalf of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, repeated that the US should respect Beijing’s “one-China” principle and leave it to conduct Taiwan’s business.
“The current complex and severe situation across the Taiwan Strait is mainly because the Democratic Progressive Party is colluding with separatist and external forces to seek independence provocations,” he said. “We are aimed at the interference of external forces and the very small number of separatists and their separatist activities. We are definitely not aimed at compatriots in Taiwan”.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen greets former US Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg at a meeting at the presidential office in Taipei on April 15, 2021. Picture: ANN WANG / POOL / AFP.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen greets former US Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg at a meeting at the presidential office in Taipei on April 15, 2021. Picture: ANN WANG / POOL / AFP.Source:AFP
Taiwan, however, disagrees.
President Tsai Ing-wen told visiting former senior US officials that Beijing’s Chinese military’s activities threaten regional peace and stability.

The island has not been part of China since it was ceded to the Japanese in 1895. The Republic of China government fled there after the 1949 revolution. It refused to surrender to the Communist Party on the mainland.
But Communist Beijing is now determined to subvert Taiwan’s democratically elected government.
“Some DPP politicians, who are hugely over-estimating their strength, have been seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ through relying on foreign support,” Ma said, adding that “these individuals are certain to face the consequences of their actions in due course”.
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel
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jward

passin' thru
:hmm: China invade Australia over Taiwan. hmm. not on many bingo cards I bet.

Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info



#Chinese state media threatens to invade #Australia if it gets involved with #Taiwan #China's Global Times "The Australian Defence Force only has around 60,000 permanent personnel & the number of forces that it could devote to a war effort is even less."

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1384761726420193280?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
:hmm: China invade Australia over Taiwan. hmm. not on many bingo cards I bet.

Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info



#Chinese state media threatens to invade #Australia if it gets involved with #Taiwan #China's Global Times "The Australian Defence Force only has around 60,000 permanent personnel & the number of forces that it could devote to a war effort is even less."

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1384761726420193280?s=20

 
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