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China Signals a Military Response to a Taiwan Visit by Pelosi
China is warning the U.S. not to allow House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to proceed with a trip to Taiwan she has reportedly planned for next month, even signaling “military but also strategic” consequences for the island nation over which Beijing is becoming increasingly confrontational.
Though the California Democrat herself has not confirmed the trip, the Financial Times reported Pelosi’s plans citing several anonymous officials. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian blasted the report on Tuesday, telling reporters that Beijing perceives it as a “serious violation” of the collection of diplomatic agreements that govern U.S.-China relations toward Taiwan.
“China urged the U.S. to not arrange the visit and stop official exchanges, stop creating tensions across the Taiwan Straits, and take concrete actions to fulfill the U.S. commitment of 'not supporting Taiwan secessionism,’” Zhao warned. “If the U.S. insists on going its own way, China will take firm and forceful measures to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. must bear all the consequence of the visit.”
The fiery exchange comes at a time of perhaps unprecedented threats against the island nation, which war planners at the Pentagon refer to as “Fortress Taiwan.” Several U.S. officials believe China has become emboldened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the relative restraint of the subsequent Western response, which now informs Beijing’s own ambitions for a similar territorial land-grab.
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China signaled on Tuesday that Pelosi’s reported plans require as much of a diplomatic response as a military one, using combative rhetoric to describe how it might respond to the perceived provocation.
Local analysts cited by the Global Times – the English-language newspaper aligned with the Chinese Communist Party – said the trip would represent “an intentional provocation by the U.S. side” made all the more egregious by the Biden administration’s plans for sending $108 million in new arms shipments to Taiwan.
If the U.S. breaks through the diplomatic “guardrails” that govern Taiwan policy – as Pelosi’s trip would do – “we will see the China-US relations fall off a cliff, for sure,” Lü Xiang with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told the outlet.
Though not a direct mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, several current and former U.S. officials and analysts believe the content the Global Times produces aligns with the party’s intentions and that it frequently publishes what party officials chose not to say publicly themselves.
Hu Xijin, a commentator and former editor for the paper, said the People’s Liberation Army or PLA – the name for China’s entire military – should deploy an aircraft carrier and fly fighter jets through airspace Taiwan claims as its own in response to a trip from Pelosi, as Beijing’s military has done in following prior perceived slights.
“This would make a precedent with a much greater milestone meaning than Pelosi's visit,” Hu said. “We must be fully prepared for an all-out military confrontation.”
“If the Taiwan military dares to open fire against PLA aircraft, then Taiwan military aircraft would be shot down and Taiwan military bases will be destroyed,” he added. “So if the U.S. and Taiwan authorities want all-out war, then the time for Taiwan liberation will come.”
Pelosi had plans to lead a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan in April but scuttled the plans at the last minute after testing positive for COVID-19. Chinese officials in Beijing and Washington expressed similar outrage at that time. The analysts the Global Times cited on Tuesday suggested Pelosi canceled for ulterior reasons, citing a “series of diplomatic and military moves” that “meant the crisis was avoided in April.”
She would be the first House speaker to visit the island since Newt Gingrich in 1997 at a time when U.S. policy centered on bringing China into the global marketplace with designs on encouraging it to democratize.
Though Taiwan is not officially an ally of the U.S., the two countries have signed agreements ensuring U.S. support to bolster its defenses against outside threats.
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