WAR 05-09-2020-to-05-08-15-2020___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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(416) 04-18-2020-to-4-24-2020___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****


(417) WAR - 04-25-2020-to-05-01-24-2020___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****


(418) 05-02-2020-to-05-08-24-2020___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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China to Embrace Nuclear Option and Counter ‘Warmonger U.S.’

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'China needs 1000 bombs to deal with US'

bcc May 9, 2020
Edited By Akansha Kumari |
NavbharatTimes.com | Updated: 09 May 2020, 11: 19: 00 AM IST

NBT


Beijing

Experts to China in South China Sea amid growing tension with US It has been suggested that it should increase the number of nuclear weapons. Experts launch H – 20 strategic stealth bomber and ballistic missile to avoid US military attack The need for JL-3 submarine is emphasized.

China's official media Global Times report states that America, South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait are pressuring Beijing by sending all types of warships and warplanes. Newspaper editor Hu Shijin said on Friday that China would have to increase its number of nuclear weapons 1000 to deal with the US.

China scared by American ship practice

The newspaper quoted the Reuters report as saying that the Pentagon, the Chinese military Tomahawk is going to deploy cruise missiles in South China Sea to stop the activity. Since May 1, the US has sent B-1B strategic bomber to East China Sea three times. At the same time, the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USA Theodore Roosevelt and the USS US Ambibius Assault Ship 15 Have practiced in South China Sea on March.

Amid the corona virus epidemic, Chinese expert Song Zhongping said on Friday that the United States was pressuring and threatening China. The US is deploying nuclear weapons on the battlefield, so China will have to increase its number of nuclear weapons.

'China's No First Use Policy'

Whether China and nuclear weapons and DF – 41 will prepare the missile? And will China enter into an arms treaty with the US? On this question, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chuning said on Friday that big countries should value responsibility and work on reducing strategic nuclear weapons. He said that China has always believed in the 'no first use' policy.

Web Title
china needs to expand the number of its nuclear warheads to 1, 00 0 to curb us strategic ambitions, warn experts (News in Hindi ) from Navbharat Times, TIL Network)

Get latest America news headlines, American political news, sports news, all breaking news and live updates. Stay updated with us to get latest news in Hindi.
 
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Why Pakistan’s proxy war will now intensify
The Pakistan army has been most confident of the sub-conventional or covert war dimension of its strategy and will continue its strong reliance on that. Another dimension of cyber war and propaganda is being strengthened now. Perception management has remained an integral part of its strategy not only against India but also towards its own people to garner legitimacy for the army’s overpowering stature and unreasonable actions.

  • Posted: May 09, 2020 06:40 AM (IST)
  • Updated : 20 hours ago
Shalini Chawla

Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies

While the world is engrossed in its fight against the global pandemic, Pakistan’s strategic assets do find this period as the optimal time to intensify its covert war strategy of ‘bleed India’. On May 3, in an overnight operation at Handwara in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian security establishment lost five personnel fighting the Pakistan-sponsored terrorists. One of the two terrorists killed in the operation is identified as a top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander, Haider, a Pakistani national. Reportedly, 25-30 terrorists have crossed the LoC and infiltrated into the Valley in April.

Pakistan-based terrorist groups have been upping their ante and in October last year, an unknown organisation in Kashmir, The Resistance Front (TRF), which is reportedly a front of Pak-sponsored LeT, made its debut in the competitive world of terrorism, and conducted a grenade attack at a street market in Srinagar city, wounding a few vendors. TRF has an active online presence and has conducted a series of attacks targeting the Indian forces. Pakistan has been on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and under international pressure to act and curb terror financing channels. Thus, a need to have a new brand in the name of resistance and human rights was felt strongly by Islamabad to conduct and intensify the sub-conventional war in the Valley.

The terror attack is painful and frustrating but not surprising, given Pakistan’s long commitment to the sub-conventional war, and critical developments in the recent past. Pakistan has been exasperated after the revocation of Article 370 in the Valley. Pakistan’s much-expected anguish, reflected in its series of hate tweets, intense propaganda against the Modi government, claiming it as a government run on Nazi ideology, and intensified diplomatic offensive, highlighting the Kashmir issue at every possible international forum.

Imran Khan, who is in sync with the deep state’s strategic objectives and owes his victory in the 2018 elections to the Army chief, General Bajwa, has been highlighting purported Islamophobia — starting in his UN General Assembly speech in September 2019 — in an aggressive attempt to unite the Muslim states against India (for Kashmir). Pakistan’s all-weather ally China has been a supporter of Pakistan’s position on Kashmir and Beijing facilitated raising the Kashmir issue at the United Nations Security Council a multiple times. The threat of a nuclear war has also been repeatedly highlighted by Pakistan to attract the much-desired international attention on Kashmir in the last one year.

Pakistan’s efforts to intensify militancy in the Valley at this point are primarily due to four factors: n Conventional offensive is not feasible for Pakistan currently due to its mounting economic stress and now additional stress of the Covid crisis; n The US-Taliban agreement signed on February 29 has boosted Pakistan’s faith in the covert war strategy it pursued against Afghanistan. Pakistan has been acknowledged by Washington as a facilitator of the agreement and the Pakistan military is cherishing diplomatic dividends as well as Pentagon’s moderately altered stance towards Pakistan; n The Afghan Taliban, an ally of Pakistan, has gained legitimacy and strength in Kabul. This conveniently caters to Pakistan’s desire of gaining strategic depth and seeking control over Kabul, which would facilitate its designs against New Delhi; and n Pakistan got a four-month reprieve for meeting the FATF deadline to stop financing of terrorist groups. Islamabad feels it has the time and space to conduct militancy against India without the pressure of being questioned in the FATF (at least not too soon!). Traditionally, Pakistan has been following a three-dimensional strategy against India:

Conventional level: Pakistan has tried hard to attain parity with India in terms of its military build-up. The military leadership in Pakistan has focused primarily on defence build-up and modernisation, highlighting the strategic threats in the region.

Sub-conventional level: Pakistan opted for the covert war option in 1947, when it launched its first aggression in the name of tribal revolt. The Pakistan military has pursued a covert war strategy with persistence over the last seven decades, although its tactics have been modified and have evolved. All the three wars initiated by Pakistan have been started in a covert manner.

Nuclear level: Nuclear weapons are perceived as providing a foolproof guarantee of its sovereignty and survivability against India. After the acquisition of nuclear weapons (in 1987), Pakistan is more confident of its strategy of ‘offensive-defence’. Nuclear weapons have been used as an umbrella by the Pakistani leadership to pursue terrorism as a foreign policy tool. The belief in the nuclear weapons has grown with its adoption of the ‘first use’ doctrine and, projection of a low nuclear threshold. The Balakot strikes did challenge Islamabad’s nuclear posture to some extent.

It is pertinent to ask how this strategy towards India will evolve in the coming time. The Pakistan army has been most confident of the sub-conventional or covert war dimension of its strategy and will continue its strong reliance on that.

A fourth dimension of cyber war and propaganda is being strengthened and intensified now.

Cyber war and propaganda: Pakistan has intensified the propaganda war, which is a low-cost option and is felt to be a potent weapon to shape its anti-India narrative. Perception management has remained an integral part of the military’s strategy not only against India, and Afghanistan, but also within the state towards its own people to garner support and legitimacy for the army’s overpowering stature and unreasonable actions. While Imran Khan used the social media for his anti-Modi agenda after Balakot strikes and then after revocation of Article 370, official reports suggest 7,000 accounts on social media are being operated from Pakistan for a campaign aimed at influencing New Delhi’s relations with Gulf countries.

While Islamabad’s denial for its role in the proxy war is expected, its revised strategy against India aims at intensifying militancy in the Valley— under a new brand — and launching an aggressive cyber war to intensify propaganda and highlight Islamophobia.
 

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NATO to ‘remain Nuclear Alliance status as long as atomic weapons exist’: Jens Stoltenberg

Sputnik
10:25 PM | May 08, 2020


Jens Stoltenberg has stressed the importance of NATO’s deterrent accords which he claimed provide the alliance’s European allies with a nuclear umbrella.
In an interview with the German news outlet Die Welt, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pointed out that he welcomes Berlin’s “clear commitment to nuclear deterrence”.

He also underlined that even though NATO had reduced its atomic arsenal in Europe by 90 percent, “as long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance”.
The NATO chief added that the alliance’s nuclear agreements are “as important today as they have always been” and that the accords “offer the European allies an atomic shield”.

The remarks come after German government spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters last week that Berlin would continue to make an "appropriate contribution" to NATO's nuclear deterrence concept which he said was outlined in the the Merkel coalition's 2018 agreement.
"There are some nations that continue to regard nuclear weapons as a means of military conflict, and as long as this is the case, we believe that there is still a need to maintain nuclear deterrence”, Seibert said without elaborating.
This followed a report by the magazine Der Spiegel about the US secretly modernising nuclear weapons deployed at Germany’s Buchel Air Base in the fall of 2019.

According to the report, the US Air Force flew around 20 B-61 nuclear weapons on a military transport C-17 "Globemaster" from the air base in Rhineland-Palatinate to America for two days to install new software.

Although the Buchel-based bombs are considered a part of nuclear-sharing arrangements, their existence has not been officially confirmed by either Germany or the US, with the exact location of the B-61s remaining a state secret. The nuclear-sharing arrangement reportedly allows NATO member states without nuclear weapons to participate in planning and training for the use of nuclear weapons.
German Politicians at Odds Over US Nuclear Weapons in Their Country
Last year, German MP Dietmar Bartsch called for the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Germany, echoing US Ambassador Richard Grenell offering to remove American troops from the country.

"The US ambassador is right: US taxpayers should not have to pay for US troops in Germany. US taxpayers also do not have to pay for deploying nuclear weapons in Germany. If the Americans pull their soldiers out, they should take their nuclear weapons with them”, Bartsch said.

This, however, was preceded by the government's deputy spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer insisting that nuclear weapons remain on German soil.

In March 2010, Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, passed a resolution to have US nuclear weapons withdrawn from the country. The German government, however, said at the time that it would not take any unilateral actions without coordinating the move with its NATO partners.

The third provision of the Final Settlement Treaty with Respect to Germany which came into force on 15 March 1991, obliges the country to renounce the manufacture, as well as possession of, and control over nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. By the end of June 1991, the-then USSR removed all military nuclear components from the territory of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR).
 

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Constitutional amendments to scrap Algeria’s military dogma of non intervention abroad



Experts wonder if move gives in to external pressure or is a shift in the military and security strategy.

Saturday 09/05/2020

A file picture shows Algerian soldiers standing guard at Tiguentourine gas plant in In Amenas, 1600 km southeast of Algiers. (Reuters)


Changing doctrine. A file picture shows Algerian soldiers standing guard at Tiguentourine gas plant in In Amenas, 1600 km southeast of Algiers. (Reuters)

Algeria –Proposed amendments to the Algerian constitution, including a provision allowing the army to participate in missions abroad contrary to previous military dogma, have just been made public.

Based on the draft released by the Algerian presidency, it will be possible for the Algerian army to act outside the country’s borders. The step has surprised both the public and political parties, who for decades were used to a very different discourse about the army’s tasks and rules of engagement.

Under the new amendments, the Algerian president can consult with parliament before allowing the army to participate in missions outside the country’s borders. This would be a major shift in the country’s approach to military and diplomatic issues. The oil-rich Maghreb country has always refrained from sending its army on missions outside its borders, in compliance with terms of the constitution.

But Algeria has been under great pressure in recent years to involve its army in security and military tasks abroad, especially anti-terrorism missions in the region. France and the United States both called on the Algerian army to join the regional war against terrorism and organised crime.

Algeria’s position led the country to suffer a number of diplomatic and strategic setbacks, especially after France’s military involvement in the fight against jihadist groups in Mali, with which Algeria shares long borders.

Algeria has been absent from the French-led Barkhan Operation against Mali insurgents since 2012. It has also been absent from the African anti-terrorism force, which includes five African armies collaborating on security issues in the Sahel and Sahara region with French help.

Algeria has found itself marginalised because of its refusal to let its army deploy outside its territorial borders in conformity with the country’s constitution.

The new step envisioned by Algeria raises questions about its motives. Some have interpreted it as a surrender to external pressures, while others saw it as a shift in the country’s military and security strategy taken by the main leaders to face growing threats on Algeria’s eastern and southern borders with developments in Libya and Mali. The draft amendments also suggest a change in Algeria’s perception of security, as they would give the army other options than simply waiting to push back against threats from within the country’s borders.

The issue has not drawn significant reactions so far, perhaps because everyone is preoccupied with the current pandemic. Support by Algeria’s army is likely to be coveted by outside powers considering its top ranking among the region’s military forces.

It could be that the new players in the country want to quietly adopt the amendments, which usher in a major change in military dogma, while attention is focused on other issues that are more controversial, such as the future of Amazighs within national identity, the creation of the position of vice-president and the rejection of political Islam.

The proposed amendments suggest that the issue of Amazigh language should be solved once and for all. This has surprised those who support the government but are opposed to the demands of pro-Amazigh advocates.

Many consider the suggestions on the Berber question to be an attempt at appealing to pro-Amazigh groups in order to help restore political and social stability in the country after more than a year of turmoil.

Activist Noureddine Khettal was one of the first to share his reaction on the issue, expressing strong indignation at what he considered a “betrayal” of the political foundation laid by the late Army chief of staff, General Ahmed Gaid Saleh.

In an audio recording posted on his official web page, he called on his supporters to get ready to abort the new constitution, expressing disappointment at the attitude of those they had helped during the presidential elections that took place last December.

Authorities seem to be counting on the release of the draft amendments in order to draw the population’s attention and build support, or at least divert attention from the Hirak protests which are likely to resume at the end of the country’s public health crisis.


Written By Saber Blidi

Saber Blidi is an Algerian writer.
 

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Several killed in Afghanistan amid protests over food distribution during pandemic

By Kaelan Deese - 05/09/20 11:49 AM EDT

At least six people were killed and several more were wounded on Saturday following a clash with police in Afghanistan as people protested what they viewed as unfair food distribution amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Tariq Arian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Interior, said four civilians and two police officers died during the incident, adding that delegations would be sent from Kabul to investigate the incident further, Reuters reported.

The spokesman said 10 police officers and nine civilians were also injured.

Angered protesters were alleging that the recent food aid distribution favored those who had ties to people in positions of power, according to Reuters.

Police in the western Ghor province had opened fire on the nearly 300 protesters, some of whom threw rocks and fired guns in an attempt to enter the governor's home, Mohammad Arif Aber, a spokesman for the governor, told the wire service.

A volunteer radio presenter was reportedly killed in the crossfire. The Afghanistan Journalists Centre said a bullet hit the head of Ahmad Naveed Khan, who was sitting in his building, Reuters reported.

Following the escalated events on Saturday, the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission said it is looking into more "worrying reports of police firing on protestors," the group's chairwoman, Shaharzad Akbar, tweeted.

In an interview with Reuters, Akbar said the commission distributing food was receiving complaints about food being improperly handled.
"We hear repeated complaints from people that the ones who are receiving the limited aid that is there are not the ones that are most deserving, they are the ones who have connections to local authorities or local officials," she said.

Akbar said it was not possible at this time to verify the extent to which food distribution mishandling was occurring, according to the report.

Afghanistan has reported 4,033 cases of the coronavirus and 115 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
 

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'No discussion on Indian troops in Afghanistan,' says US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad
India
Srinjoy Chowdhury | National Affairs Editor

Updated May 09, 2020 | 13:29 IST


Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad told Times Now that US-Taliban accord refrains the latter from using Afghan territory to attack the United States or its allies


US special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad

US special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad | Photo Credit: Times Now
New Delhi: Zalmay Khalilzad, Special Representative for Afghanistan in the US State Department, told Times Now that the United States wants India to participate in the Afghan peace process, but there has been no discussion about having Indian troops in Kabul.

Khalilzad said he had a "very good meeting and the focus was Indian involvement in international efforts in the support of peace in Afghanistan and we discussed alternatives and how best India, which has an important role in Afghanistan on what happens... We exchanged views on the options... The United States is supportive of India playing its role in the quest for peace".

"India is supportive. It is going to think about the alternatives and we need to continue regular exchanges and I hope that we will reach an agreement on which one among the options are best for India to participate in and we support Indian involvement."
There were several reasons why the United States thought Indian involvement was necessary which are as follows:
  • India's proximity to Afghanistan and also, India's role in international affairs
  • The long history of good Afghan-Indian relations
  • Good relations between the United States and India and India's support of the peace effort
Dubbing the discussion with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar, and the National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, as "substantive, very positive and constructive," the US envoy noted that there was no discussion on the issue of Indian troops in Afghanistan.

Khalilzad said that the discussion was about "the peace process in the aftermath of the US-Taliban deal being implemented, the state of violence in Afghanistan, the spread of coronavirus, inter-Afghan negotiations and the alternatives".

Safe havens in Pakistan
Asked about India's concerns about the safe havens of terrorism in Pakistan and the role of the Haqqani network, the US envoy said, "As you know, the agreement between the US and the Taliban has a key element stipulating that Afghanistan's territory is not to be used by hostile groups against the US and its allies."

He said that Afghanistan could not be used for terrorists and there were concerns that the international community and "India, of course," had.

Speaking about the suffering of the Afghan people Khalilzad said, "The international community, the United States, India, of course, will not like to be threatened. Afghan territory should not be used against anybody and therefore, we have a common interest. We, India and the International community want peace for the Afghans and peace for the world... On that issue, there is broad agreement between the United States and India."

Asked if Pakistan would close down the safe havens and if the issue came up during the discussion, he said, "Pakistan's leadership has been supportive of the efforts."

Pakistan has encouraged the Taliban to finalize the agreement and go towards the next steps such as reduction of violence and inter-Afghan negotiations as part of the peace process, he added.

"Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighbours. The territories should not be used against each other by groups on behalf of one or the other. Peace in Afghanistan opens the door for more positive relations (and) opportunities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, between Afghanistan and other neighbours.”

Khalilzad said peace in Afghanistan would be a positive for Central and South Asia in order to improve regional trade and regional economic cooperation and competition.
“So, Afghanistan can open regional relations from zero-sum to non-zero-sum. We are hopeful that the Afghan peace process will make progress and the international community and the regional powers will also be supportive of these efforts. Peace in Afghanistan can succeed if the regional powers and the neighbours support it.”

Is Afghanistan peace process good for India?
So, will the peace process in Afghanistan be good for India, a country facing cross-border terrorism? Yes, said Khalilzad. “It will be good for India, it will be good for the entire world. Remember that the United States and the coalition forces came to Afghanistan because of the terrorist attack by Al Qaeda on the US on 9/11".


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The agreement with the Taliban has produced a black-and-white commitment that they won't allow any group to threaten the security of the US and its allies and operate in Afghanistan, he added.

Khalilzad said Afghanistan should not be a terrorist threat to the world, “including, of course, to India”. In return, “commitment that we the US has made is conditional” which means that if the Taliban breaks the agreement, crosses the read lines, the USA can act unilaterally.

Sources here said that during the meeting the prospects of reconciliation and the various formulations being considered were discussed. Other Issues included the increasing number of attacks by the Taliban, the security of the minorities, including the Hindus and Sikhs.

India believes that the gains of the last two decades, particularly in the social sector, have to be preserved.
 

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Chabahar port attains key role in supplying aid to Afghanistan amid Covid-19 crisis
India has made a commitment to supply 75,000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan, of which 5000 tonnes was shipped via Chabahar last month, while another 10,000 tonnes was despatched to the Iranian port on Thursday, the people said.
india Updated: May 08, 2020 22:23 IST


Rezaul H Laskar | Posted by Arpan Rai



Rezaul H Laskar | Posted by Arpan Rai
Hindustan Times, New Delhi


Iran’s Chabahar port is playing a key role in India’s efforts to provide humanitarian aid and medical supplies to Afghanistan amid the Covid-19 crisis, people familiar with developments said on Friday.

“Chabahar port continues to be operational and this is our conduit for assistance to Afghanistan,” one of the people cited above said on condition of anonymity.

India has made a commitment to supply 75,000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan, of which 5000 tonnes was shipped via Chabahar last month, while another 10,000 tonnes was despatched to the Iranian port on Thursday, the people said.

“Chabahar port is very much in use and it is coming in very handy when we are dealing with humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan,” the person said, adding India is now looking at the possibility of supplying more items needed by Afghanistan, such as tea and sugar, via the Iranian port.

The Iranian port, for whose development a tripartite agreement has been signed by New Delhi, Kabul and Tehran, was granted a waiver from US sanctions in view of its importance for Afghanistan.

India’s played constructive role in Afghanistan and its support for efforts for peace, reconciliation and development had figured in discussions in New Delhi on Thursday between Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan, and external affairs minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.

“The US side’s expectation was that India would continue to play a positive role and India has to be a part of the process to effectively contribute to the process,” the person said.

India clearly conveyed its concerns regarding a recent surge in terrorist violence in Afghanistan and the role played by Pakistan-based terror sanctuaries during the meetings with Khalilzad.

Khalilzad’s short visit to India amid the Covid-19 crisis highlighted the “level of urgency” regarding the situation in Afghanistan and the discussions took in the gamut of developments in the war-torn country, including internal developments, the impact of the US-Taliban agreement and efforts aimed reconciliation between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah, the people said.

The Indian side highlighted the threat posed to Afghanistan by terrorism and the increase in attacks by the Taliban on security forces, as well as concerns about the impact of the violence on the Afghan constitutional set-up and on minorities such as Hindus and Sikhs, the people added.

At the same time, India and Iran have cooperated to combat the Covid-19 pandemic, the people said. A total of 1,142 Indians, including pilgrims from Kashmir and Ladakh and students, were repatriated from Iran while more than 1,000 Iranians have been flown back from India. The Iranian side helped arranged treatment for some 300 Indians who tested positive for Covid-19, while India has provided medical assistance and medicines.
 

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Libya: Tripoli sustains massive rocket attack; planes ablaze

Barrage of rockets target Mitiga airport as six civilians killed in Libya's capital during major bombardment.

2 hours ago

more on Libya

Shelling of Tripoli's airport hit fuel tanks and damaged passenger planes after forces loyal to Libya's renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar fired dozens of rockets into Tripoli.

Six people were killed and dozens of others wounded in the attacks, the interior ministry said in a statement, which included as many as 80 rocket strikes.
More:
The transport ministry said one of the damaged planes was preparing to fly to Spain to retrieve Libyans stranded in Europe by the coronavirus lockdown.

Video shared by an airport worker showed black smoke billowing over the apron. Photographs showed shrapnel damage sprayed across the nose of a passenger plane.

The attack on Saturday was the latest to target Mitiga International Airport in Libya's capital, the seat of the country's internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Haftar's eastern-based forces have been trying to seize Tripoli since April last year.

Al Jazeera's Mahmoud Abdelwahed, reporting from Tripoli, said plumes of black smoke were seen billowing over the airport.

Damage was visible in several areas of Tripoli including the Rixos Hotel, Nasser Forest, and the Bab Ben Ghashir district after the bombardment. The area was cleared of civilians by the GNA forces to ensure the safety of the population, officials said.

Saturday's attacks came hours after the UN Support Mission in Libya condemned the indiscriminate attacks on civilians in Tripoli, saying they "may amount to war crimes".

The airport has repeatedly been attacked by Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), which in April last year launched an operation to capture Tripoli from the GNA. Civilian flights stopped in March because of frequent shelling even before the country imposed a lockdown over the coronavirus pandemic

"Haftar's forces say that there is a drone launcher in that airport … Turkish drones to target Haftar forces' locations in the south and many other locations," Abdelwahed said.

According to the United Nations, four-fifths of the 130 civilian casualties recorded in the Libyan conflict in the first quarter of the year were caused by LNA ground fighting.

Fighting intensifies
Late on Thursday, Turkey and Italy said the area around their embassies in Tripoli was shelled, leading the European Union to condemn the incident, which it said was "attributal to Haftar's forces".

LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari denied the LNA had shelled the area. He has not yet commented on Saturday's shelling at Mitiga.

Turkey supports the GNA and has signed a military cooperation agreement with it to help the fight against Haftar's LNA, which is backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and other countries.

The attack came days after at least five civilians were killed in shelling blamed on the LNA and followed the launch of an operation by the GNA to seize the key al-Watiya airbase, southwest of Tripoli, from Haftar's forces.

Tripoli: Reports of civilian plane hit at Mitiga airport (4:10)

Series of setbacks
Haftar's fighters have suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks in their year-long campaign to seize Tripoli, with pro-GNA forces expelling them from two key coastal cities west of the capital.

The LNA's military defeats have coincided with Turkey's entrance into the conflict, and its use of weaponised drones targetting Haftar's troops and supply lines.

The GNA rejected Haftar's unilateral call for a ceasefire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan for fear he would use the truce as an opportunity to regroup.

Last month, the United Nations, the European Union and several countries called on Libya's warring sides to lay down their arms during Ramadan.

Libya has been in turmoil since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was later killed.

For years, the country has been split between the rival administrations in the east and the west, each backed by armed groups supported by an array of foreign powers.

This week the UN again raised alarm that ordinary Libyans are bearing the brunt of an increasingly deadly siege by eastern-based forces under Haftar's command.

The fighting has killed hundreds of civilians and displaced over 150,000, threatening to push Libya into a major conflagration on the scale of the 2011 uprising.
 

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US Ships Aid Malaysia As China Tries ‘Bullying’ In South China Sea
A mix of US ships have probed waters illegally claimed by China in the South China Sea in recent weeks, as the PLA Navy continues to harass civilian ships of neighboring countries.

By Paul McLeary on May 08, 2020 at 1:27 PM
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WASHINGTON: Two Navy ships sailed into the middle of a simmering dispute between China and a neighbor in the South China Sea on Thursday, shrugging off a shadowing Chinese warship in Washington’s latest effort to show presence in an increasingly contested waterway.

The Littoral Combat Ship USS Montgomery and supply ship USNS Cesar Chavez sailed close to a Malaysian drillship, the West Capella on Thursday, signalling to Chinese warships who have spent weeks harassing the commercial vessel in international waters illegally claimed by Beijing.

Pacific Fleet commander Adm. John Aquilino said in a statement the US is “committed to a rules-based order in the South China Sea, adding, “the Chinese Communist Party must end its pattern of bullying Southeast Asians out of offshore oil, gas, and fisheries. Millions of people in the region depend on those resources for their livelihood.”

The West Capella, drilling on the seafloor searching for oil deposits, has been drawing attention from Chinese fishing vessels and Coast Guard ships for the past two months. They “continued to harass the rig and its supply vessels. In response, Malaysian navy and law enforcement ships have been regularly patrolling the area,” according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Navy released photos showing the Montgomery operating close to the West Capella, sending a message to China that Washington is paying close attention to its latest attempts to make a power grab in the region. In recent days, top US officials have complained that Beijing is taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic which has gripped the attention of world governments and flatlined the global economy.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said recently that the US “strongly opposes China’s bullying,” charging, “the Chinese Communist Party is exerting military pressure on Taiwan and coercing its neighbors in the South China Sea, even going so far as to sink a Vietnamese fishing vessel.  We hope other nations will hold them to account.”

“We continue to see aggressive behavior by the PLA in the South China Sea,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon earlier this week, “from threatening a Philippine navy ship to sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat, and intimidating other nations from engaging in offshore oil development.”

The Navy has taken to publicizing its operations in the South China Sea in recent weeks, likely as a show of commitment and strength after the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier was forced into port in Guam with 1,100 COVID-19 cases among its crew. The ship has been pierside for about 6 weeks, and it’s unclear when it will resume operations as the only US carrier active in the Pacific.

Late last month, the destroyer USS Barry cruised near the Paracels islands, claimed by China, followed a day later by the cruiser USS Bunker Hill sailing near the Spratlys conducting freedom-of-navigation operations.

On April 30, a day after the Bunker Hill’s transit, two B-1B bombers flew over the South China Sea.

These transits came just days after the USS America amphibious ship packed with Marine Corps F-35s passed through the South China Sea while conducting flight operations.

The America, with a contingent of Marines aboard, operated in the vicinity of the Chinese survey ship Haiyang Dizhi 8, which was being escorted by Chinese destroyers, a frigate, and several coast guard vessels. The ship had been shadowing the West Capella for weeks.

Rear Adm. Fred Kacher, commander of Expeditionary Strike Group 7, added in a statement that the “USS Montgomery’s operations with the USNS Cesar Chavez highlight the flexibility and agility of our naval forces in this vital region.” In what was likely a nod to the Roosevelt being out of comission, he added, “our forces fly, sail and operate in the international waters of the South China Sea at our discretion and in accordance with maritime norms and international law, demonstrating the wide range of naval capability we have available in the Indo-Pacific.”
 

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Analysis: Islamic State claims al-Qaeda started a war in West Africa

By Thomas Joscelyn and Caleb Weiss | May 8, 2020 | tjoscelyn@hotmail.com |

19-06-15-Fighters-in-West-Africa-renew-allegiance-to-Baghdadi-2-1024x560.png

The Islamic State claims in the latest edition of its weekly Al-Naba newsletter that al-Qaeda started a “war” against the so-called caliphate’s men in West Africa. Independent reporting confirms that the two sides have clashed in recent weeks.

Al-Naba’s editors say that al-Qaeda’s men “never miss the chance for treachery,” as they recently “started a war against” the caliphate’s men in the middle of a “raging Crusader campaign.” In other words, the Islamic State accuses al-Qaeda of launching attacks on its fighters as they were battling the “Crusader” France and its allies.

Al-Qaeda’s branch in West Africa, the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (or “JNIM”), has a significant presence in Mali and the surrounding countries. JNIM grew out of an al-Qaeda effort to embed the jihadist’s cause within the fabric of local movements and organizations. And Al-Naba’s authors accuse JNIM of working with local parties to get the upper hand in the intra-jihadist rivalry.

Al-Naba’s authors write that al-Qaeda’s men “organized their armed movements and fronts in northern Mali” from “all kinds” of groups, including both those who are opposed to the “apostate government” and those who are “loyal to it.” Al-Qaeda has even worked with the “idolatrous” “tribal movements,” according to Al-Naba’s contributors.

The self-declared caliphate bristles that JNIM “accepted an invitation by the apostate Malian government to negotiate and to set themselves up as guards of the borders of Algeria and Mauritania.”

This is similar to the Islamic State’s criticisms of the Taliban, which negotiated a withdrawal deal with the Americans and claims to prevent jihadists from using Afghan soil to threaten other countries.

Al-Naba’s editors also accuse the “Crusader campaign in the region” of failing to “target [JNIM’s] soldiers or the areas in which they are stationed.” This again parallels the Islamic State’s critique of the jihad in Afghanistan, as the caliphate’s men accuse the Taliban of focusing on them, while pledging not to fight the “Crusaders.”

Al-Naba makes it clear that its criticisms are pointed directly at JNIM’s leadership, namely Iyad Ag Ghaly and Amadou Kouffa. Both of these “apostate leaders” began planning their war against their jihadist rivals “long ago,” the weekly newsletter’s authors claims. JNIM is attempting to counter the “Rogue Khawarij,” Al-Naba’s authors write — this dismissive phrasing is intended to undermine al-Qaeda’s claim that the Islamic State is filled with Kharijites, or extremists.

Ghaly is the overall leader of JNIM. When announcing JNIM’s formation in 2017, he affirmed his allegiance to the emir of AQIM (Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud, a.k.a. Abdelmalek Droukdel), al-Qaeda’s global emir (Ayman al-Zawahiri), as well as the Taliban’s overall leader (Haibatullah Akhundzada).

JNIM has said it is willing to negotiate with the Malian government – as Al-Naba claims – but only on the condition that French forces are withdrawn from the country and the surrounding region. This is basically the same negotiating tactic employed by the Taliban, which secured an American commitment to withdraw from Afghanistan before “intra-Afghan” talks have taken place. Of course, ejecting Western forces from the region greatly increases the jihadists’ chances of success. Both JNIM and the Taliban seek to build or resurrect Islamic emirates in their respective countries.

Al-Naba’s article is consistent with the same criticisms levied by the Islamic State’s Yemen “province” in a video released in late April. In that video, the Islamic State’s men accused Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) of working with “apostates.” The video’s producers critiqued the Taliban’s negotiations with the U.S., its supposed commitment to prevent attacks against the “Crusaders,” and its ongoing alliance with al-Qaeda. Similar motifs appear in the latest Al-Naba.

Independent reporting on the fighting in West Africa
The Al-Naba article was published in the wake of a French offensive in the Liptako-Gourma area of Mali and Burkina Faso.

Since early April, the French have conducted several operations targeting the Islamic State in this area. It was during this same timeframe that Al-Naba alleges the French avoided operations against JNIM.

A French Foreign Legionnaire was recently killed by an IED as part of this offensive. That blast was also claimed by the Islamic State in Al-Naba.

The Islamic State claims to have conducted several attacks against al-Qaeda’s men in the Sahel, from northern and central Mali to northern Burkina Faso. In central Mali, the Islamic State reports that its men “repulsed two attacks” by al-Qaeda in the Mopti region.

Al-Naba’s authors specifically mentions the area near Nampala, which sits close to the borders with Mauritania, and the areas “east of Macina” in the Segou region.

Local media has reported intense fighting between the jihadist groups in these same areas over the last few weeks. In early April, clashes were reported in the localities of Dialloube, Koubi, Djantakai, and Nigua in the Mopti region. And in March, fighting between the two was reported near the Mauritanian town of Fassala, which sits on the border with Mali.

This area has also seen defections from JNIM to the Islamic State in the past. Earlier this year, a unit belonging to JNIM in the Nampala area defected and pledged loyalty to the Islamic State’s new emir, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi.

Not long after, other Fulani members were also alleged to have gone to the so-called caliphate. And in 2017, another group of Fulani fighters loyal to al-Qaeda’s Katibat Macina also defected in central Mali.

The Islamic State’s media team also discusses fighting in the border regions between Mali and Burkina Faso. In the first claim, the group mentions that after the alleged “repulsed attacks” in Mopti, further clashes south of Boulikessi, Mali “left behind more than 35 dead and a number of wounded” among al-Qaeda’s ranks.

Much like the infighting in Mali’s Mopti region, battles have also been widely reported in the Liptako-Gourma area of Mali and Burkina Faso. On April 13, the Islamic State launched an attack on JNIM’s men near the locality of Tin-Tabakat.

On April 20th, a firefight was recorded near the locality of Pobe inside Burkina Faso’s Soum province, while another occurred in Keraboule in the Koutougou department of the same province. Further battles in Arbinda and Nassoumbou have also been alleged.

On April 18, however, one of the largest battles between the two was reported in the Ndaki area of Mali’s Gossi commune. According to local media, a large contingent of JNIM fighters targeted the Islamic State’s men in four different towns in the area.
Malian and Burkinabe media have stated as many as 40 vehicles were in the JNIM convoy. The Islamic State appears to confirm these events, albeit on a different date.

According to the Islamic State, JNIM targeted Islamic State positions on the Mali-Burkina Faso border area with “dozens of motorcycles and vehicles” on April 10. The jihadist group alleges that its men thwarted the assault after gaining the momentum following a suicide car bomb against al-Qaeda’s men.

It also claims to have captured 40 motorcycles and three vehicles, a claim that is generally consistent with what was reported in local media. However, it is unclear if this is indeed the same event given the discrepancies in the date.

Lastly, Al-Naba also reports a firefight with JNIM between Mali’s northern Gao region near the village of In-Tillit and the village of Aghay in Niger’s Tillaberi region on April 16. The Islamic State reportedly killed 4 members of JNIM and captured 3 others.

Furthermore, the Islamic State accuses JNIM of establishing checkpoints in the area to prevent oil tankers from providing fuel to the Islamic State. Al-Naba also provides a story that, on April 18, JNIM arrested several truck drivers for allegedly selling oil to the rival jihadist group.

As retaliation, the Islamic State’s men attempted to confront JNIM near In-Tillit, but al-Qaeda’s forces reportedly fled. FDD’s Long War Journal has not independently confirmed this story.

While this clash itself does not appear to have been confirmed by local media, its occurrence would not be surprising. The Islamic State has long had a presence inside Mali’s Gao and Menaka regions, where various attacks have been claimed by the group.
The Islamic State also fought a full-fledged war against two Malian-backed Tuareg militias in the nearby Menaka region in the past. And in March, the UN also noted that the Islamic State increased its presence inside Gao earlier this year.

Clashes or other tensions between JNIM and the Islamic State’s men have occurred sporadically since last fall, with the tempo occurring more rapidly in recent weeks.
JNIM attempted to mitigate this situation earlier this year with a series of booklets addressed to Islamic State-sympathetic members of its own organization and the Islamic State itself.

JNIM’s call for unity has so far fallen on deaf ears.


Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracy and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal. Caleb Weiss is an intern at Foundation for Defense of Democracy and a contributor to The Long War Journal.
 

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Iran says United States yet to respond about prisoner swap

Washington has yet to respond to Iran's call on a prisoner swap.
Washington has yet to respond to Iran's call on a prisoner swap.PHOTO: REUTERS
Published
8 hours ago
Updated
5 hours ago

DUBAI (REUTERS) - Washington has yet to respond to Iran about a prisoner swap, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei was quoted as saying by the government’s website on Sunday (May 10), reiterating that Teheran was ready for a full prisoner exchange with the United States without preconditions.
If a swap goes ahead, it would be one of very few instances of cooperation in an otherwise deeply frayed US-Iran relationship, which has grown more hostile since US President Donald Trump took office.
"We have stated our readiness to discuss the release of all prisoners without preconditions ... but Americans have not responded yet. It seems to us that Americans are more prepared than before to end this situation," Mr Rabiei said, according to the government’s website Dolat.ir.
Both countries have called for the release of prisoners because of the new coronavirus outbreak.
Iran is the worst hit country in the Middle East, while the United States has reported the highest number of deaths worldwide from the virus.
Three Iranian officials told Reuters last week that a prisoner swap between the two countries was in the works.


Mr Michael White, a US navy veteran who has been detained in Iran since 2018, is a likely candidate to be swapped. He was released from prison in mid-March on medical furlough but remains in Iran.

"Washington is aware of our readiness and we think there is no need for a third country to mediate between Teheran and Washington for the prisoner exchange," Mr Rabiei said.
"However, if the American side agrees, the interest section of Iran in Washington will inform the US of our views on the details, including how and when the exchange will take place."
Teheran and Washington cut diplomatic relations shortly after Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution after hardline Iranians seized the US embassy and took 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

Switzerland looks after US interests with Teheran.
"We are worried about the safety and health of Iranians in jail ... We hold America responsible for Iranians' safety amid the new coronavirus outbreak," Mr Rabiei was quoted as saying.
It is not clear exactly how many Americans Iran may hold, but they include father and son Baquer and Siamak Namazi.
Several dozen Iranians are being held in US prisons, many of them for breaking sanctions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in December that Teheran was ready for a full prisoner exchange with the United States, tweeting: "The ball is in the US’ court".
In mid-March US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Teheran to free American prisoners as a humanitarian gesture because of the coronavirus.
Last December, Iran freed US citizen Xiyue Wang, who had been held for three years on spying charges, and the United States released Iranian Massoud Soleimani, who faced charges of violating US sanctions on Iran.
The United States is set to deport Iranian professor Sirous Asgari, who was acquitted of stealing trade secrets, once he receives medical clearance to leave, US and Iranian officials said on Tuesday.
Relations have grown more hostile again since 2018 when Mr Trump exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers and re-imposed sanctions on Teheran that has crippled its economy.
Iran has responded by gradually scaling back its commitments under the agreement.
Animosity reached historic heights in early January when top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.
Iran retaliated on Jan 9 by firing missiles at bases in Iraq where US troops were stationed.
 

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Concern Increases That North Sinai Security Situation Deteriorating
Joshua Robbin Marks
05/10/2020

Experts caution that Islamic State terror cells could be moving from east to west, potentially getting closer to Suez Canal, mainland Egypt

Analysts say the security situation in Egypt’s North Sinai region is deteriorating following a deadly attack claimed by Islamic State.

A blast on May 1 targeted an armored vehicle south of Bir al-Abd, killing or wounding 10 soldiers, including an officer, Egypt’s military said.

Two days after the attack, Egyptian security forces raided a home in Bir al-Abd, killing 18 suspected militants in a firefight, according to Egypt’s Interior Ministry.

Bir al-Abd was the scene of the deadliest terrorist attack in Egyptian history in 2017 when around 40 gunmen opened fire during Friday prayers at the Sufi al-Rawda mosque, killing and wounding hundreds.

The latest round of violence there has observers concerned that Islamic State’s Sinai affiliate is moving east to west along the coastal road, beyond where Islamic State – Wilayat Sinai (Sinai Province) terror cells have traditionally operated since the insurgency began in 2011 – places such as Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid.

Wilayat Sinai is getting closer to the Suez Canal and mainland Egypt despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi authorizing a massive security operation in 2018 following the 2017 mosque attack. The counter-terror campaign, dubbed Comprehensive Operation − Sinai 2018, mostly targeted Islamist insurgents in northern and central Sinai and parts of the Nile Delta.

“The closer you get to the Suez Canal, the more worried the Egyptians should be. It is a major navigation route, a major source of income to Egypt,” Professor Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East research fellow at London’s Chatham House who is also affiliated with the city’s Regent’s University, told The Media Line.

Mekelberg said that the westward movement beyond their traditional territory shows that Wilayat Sinai has become more confident and daring. That should concern not just Egypt but Israel, as well, and if terror attacks continue closer to the Suez Canal, the international community could get involved – a scenario that, according to Mekelberg, might draw in NATO.

“I think the Sinai terrorists have sought to target the Suez Canal from the beginning of their campaign,” Jim Phillips, Middle East expert at the Heritage Foundation, told The Media Line. “It is a vital strategic asset and economic engine for Egypt and the Islamist extremists seek to damage Egypt’s economy, particularly tourism, to undermine the regime. Attacking the canal also would yield global publicity, which the terrorists covet.”

Phillips was critical of Egypt’s counterinsurgency strategy, saying that Egypt was married to conventional military tactics against an unconventional enemy while alienating local Bedouins recruited by Wilayat Sinai.

“Many Bedouin tribes in the Sinai long have complained about being discriminated against by Egypt’s central government, which they charge provides few economic benefits for their tribesmen,” Phillips said. “They have cooperated with ISIS and other Islamist extremists based in Gaza to smuggle arms, people and illicit goods into Egypt and Gaza.”

At about 23,000 square miles (60,000 square km, around the size of West Virginia), the sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula is vast, complicating the Egyptian military’s efforts to defeat the insurgency.

“These groups are more and more entrenched in Sinai. It is difficult to control the Sinai. It is a big territory,” Mekelberg said.

The coronavirus pandemic demonstrates how a health crisis can quickly shift attention and resources.

“The Egyptian army is dealing with this and managed to contain it,” Mekelberg said. “But it is not easy because Egypt is a huge country with plenty of issues beyond the Sinai Peninsula.”
 

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Putin turns against Assad and Iran

Baria Alamuddin
May 10, 2020 20:35

A contact of mine with senior Moscow connections has spent the past nine years vigorously reminding me that “(Bashar) Assad isn’t going anywhere.” Last week, she phoned me to say: “Guess what? Assad is going.”

My source isn’t the only one predicting that Russia is close to engineering Assad’s departure. Pro-Moscow media outlets have been attacking him personally. And Syrian politicians reacted angrily to semi-official comments, such as former diplomat Alexander Shumilin, head of the Kremlin-funded Europe-Middle East Center, stating: “The Kremlin must rid itself of the Syrian headache. The problem is with one person — Assad — and his entourage.”

Meanwhile, after months of internal tensions, Assad’s cousin and regime financier Rami Makhlouf very publicly went rogue, claiming that the government was ransacking his businesses and “attacking people’s freedoms.” Given the tight, familial nature of the regime, this marks a serious fracturing of Assad’s inner circle, with the Russians gleefully exacerbating these tensions.

There is particular enmity toward the influence wielded by Asma Assad, both from Makhlouf and the Russians, who leaked a damaging (possibly untrue) report about her alleged $30 million purchase of renowned David Hockney painting “The Splash” to decorate her palace.

Much of this anti-Assad kompromat emerged through media outlets controlled by the Kremlin’s master of black arts, Yevgeny Prigozhin (aka Putin’s cook). This includes evidence that, during 2019, the Assad regime lied to citizens about chronic power cuts because it was profiteering by selling electricity to Lebanon. Russian news agencies like TASS simultaneously attacked Iran for having “no interest in achieving stability in the region because it considers it a battlefield with Washington.”

The Russia-Iran-Assad axis was previously mutually beneficial as they sought to reconquer much of Syria. However, Assad’s rampant corruption, brutality and incompetence have become too toxic even for Vladimir Putin, who wants to see a stable Syria enjoying international rehabilitation. Putin resents Damascus’ 2018 deal granting Tehran exclusivity over postwar agreements — particularly because promoting Syria as a Moscow-sponsored reconstruction success story could open doors for lucrative mega-projects in oil-rich Libya and Iraq.

Close allies Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin have watched Iran’s intensifying stranglehold on Damascus in horror. “We have moved from blocking Iran’s entrenchment in Syria to forcing it out of there, and we will not stop,” Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett recently declared. Russia discreetly condones unceasing Israeli air raids against Iran-affiliated targets (such as those that killed 14 Iranian assets last week), which have escalated in parallel with Russia’s campaign against Assad.

Tehran would rather burn everything to the ground than passively watch Moscow eject its puppet from the presidential palace.
Baria Alamuddin

Throughout 2019, Moscow cracked down on criminal militias controlled by regime kingpins like Mahir Assad, resulting in deadly clashes (one January 2019 incident left 70 fighters dead). Operating between Latakia on the Mediterranean coast and Abu Kamal on the Iraqi border, these entities have collaborated with Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to control the foremost narcotics routes into Europe and the Arab world. Some $660 million of amphetamines, shipped from Latakia, was impounded in Greece in a record haul in July 2019.

Moscow fears that Iran’s acquisition of Latakia port and its construction of a railroad straddling Syria and Iraq will cut off its principal base at Hmeimim and facilitate the delivery of arms to Iran-backed militias, inhibiting Russia’s ability to control Syrian affairs.

Putin could perhaps compel Assad to resign. It is less clear whether Russia could sustainably impose a preferred replacement. My source, however, suggested there is active consideration of presidential candidates from outside regime and Alawite circles. But a botched coup attempt could engulf Damascus in new paroxysms of civil conflict. Tehran would rather burn everything to the ground than passively watch Moscow eject its puppet from the presidential palace. Syria’s intelligence services and military operate symbiotically with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps interlocutors, yet much of the regime is frustrated at being shackled to an overbearing Persian agenda. Iranian largess has purchased resentment, not loyalty.

Israeli intelligence reports state that Iran and Hezbollah have been “dramatically reducing” their military presence in Syria (including two-thirds of the Quds Force fighters in the country), while observers have been surprised by Hassan Nasrallah’s recent failures to even mention Syria. Nevertheless, US officials such as Damascus envoy James Jeffrey conclude that Iran has no intention of loosening its clutches on Syria. And the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has warned of increased Iranian proselytization and recruitment of new paramilitary forces throughout southeastern Syria.

US President Donald Trump may perceive a Russian coup in Syria as a two-pronged gift: Removing a blood-drenched anti-US dictator, while kicking thousands of Iranian advisers and Hezbollah hoodlums out of Damascus. For Putin — in the unlikely event that such a transition was pulled off flawlessly — it would be an unforgettable display of Russian regional supremacy.

Hamstrung by US sanctions, Tehran is in dire financial straits and experiencing acute regional paramilitary overstretch. Given that the November presidential election may bring a less anti-Iran administration, Israel and Moscow may never have a better moment to summarily cut Iran down to size. However, Assad has survived nine years against often impossible odds, so this isn’t over until the Assads board a plane for ignominious exile.

A Russia-Israel axis would be devastating for Iran’s regional posture; encircling Hezbollah in Lebanon and projecting influence in Baghdad and beyond. Nevertheless, a Kremlin-sanctioned Damascus regime would likely be as equally autocratic and brutal as the Assads, while enjoying no domestic legitimacy and leaving the Syrian Arab Republic even more of a fiefdom to foreign powers. For the Arab world, a phase of Israeli-Russian hegemony would be just as antithetical as the past decade of hostile Iranian expansionism.

Russia contextualizes its Syrian policy within the 2017 Astana process (with Turkey and Iran), which symbolized the moment when Western and Arab parties were ignobly ousted from the Syrian arena. We would all rejoice at the ejection of the ayatollahs and Assads from Damascus. However, any transition must be the starting point for an internationally brokered democratic process that restores Syria to its place in the Arab fold, with Syrians obtaining the opportunity for justice and the resources to return to their homes and rebuild their lives.

* Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
 

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Turkey Threatens Retaliation Against Haftar’s Forces in Libya
By VOA News

May 10, 2020 05:23 PM




A passenger plane damaged by shelling is seen at Tripoli's Mitiga airport in Tripoli, Libya May 10, 2020.

A passenger plane damaged by shelling is seen at Tripoli's Mitiga airport in Tripoli, Libya May 10, 2020.

Turkey is threatening tough retaliation if forces loyal to Libyan general Khalifa Haftar strike Turkish interests or its diplomatic missions in Tripoli or elsewhere.

Haftar, who has set up a rival government in eastern Libya, has been fighting to topple the internationally-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj.

“If our missions and our interests in Libya are targeted, we will deem Haftar’s forces legitimate targets,” The Turkish Foreign Ministry said Sunday.

Turkey says the area near its embassy in Tripoli was shelled late last week. Haftar’s forces deny responsibility.

But Turkey is strongly criticizing the United Nations for what it says is the U.N.’s failure to move against Haftar.

“It is unacceptable for the United Nations to remain silent against this carnage any longer. Countries providing military, financial and political aid to Haftar are responsible for the suffering that the people of Libya are enduring and the chaos and instability the country is being dragged into,” the foreign ministry statement said.

Turkey supports the Tripoli-based government as it tries to defend itself from a year-long offensive from Haftar to seize the capital.

Weekend shelling in and around Tripoli has killed as many as six and wounded several dozen, reports say.

Residents in Tripoli say the fighting has been some the worst in recent months. The country’s only functioning airport has been badly damaged and parts of northern Libya are at risk of going dry after armed men stormed a power station belonging to the government’s water authority.

Al-Sarraj's Government of National Accord, has been able to push back Haftar’s forces which have the support of Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Appeals from the European Union to all foreign countries earlier this year to stop supplying arms and interfering in Libya and let peace talks proceed have gone nowhere.
 

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News May 10, 2020

Mexico's president calls for investigation into Obama-era Fast and Furious Operation

The Mexican government is asking Washington for cooperation in discovering how Operation Fast and Furious happened
Paul Sacca

Mexico's president asked the United States for answers and an apology for the Obama-era gun-running operation known as "Fast and Furious." On Friday, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador called for an investigation into Operation Fast and Furious to prevent it from happening again.

"What seems serious to me is that a violation of our sovereignty was carried out, a secret operation, and that Mexicans were killed with these weapons," Lopez Obrador said during a press conference in Mexico City on Friday.

"How could this be? A government that invades in this way, that flagrantly violates sovereignty, international laws," Lopez Obrador continued. "We have to shine light on this so that an action of this type will never be carried out again."

"There is still time for the U.S. to apologize," the Mexican president stated.

He also said that his government would send a diplomatic note to Washington asking for information on the gun-running scheme. Mexico Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard confirmed the communication, and said he was sending a letter to the U.S. regarding Operation Fast and Furious.

Operation Fast and Furious was a strategy created to assist the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives to combat Mexican drug cartels. Between 2009 and 2011, the Phoenix Field Division of the ATF would allow and track the illegal sale of approximately 2,000 firearms worth roughly $1.5 million. The weapons from Operation Fast and Furious would end up being used to kill hundreds of Mexicans and at least one American, U.S. Border Patrol agent Brian Terry in 2010.

Lopez Obrador first brought up the decade-old incident last Monday when talking about Genaro Garcia Luna, who was Mexico's security minister between 2006 and 2012. Garcia Luna was arrested in Texas by U.S. federal agents last December on drug trafficking and bribery charges.

Roberta Jacobson, a former American ambassador to Mexico appointed under U.S. President Barack Obama, suggested that both governments were aware of potential corruption tied to Garcia Luna. The report was published in Mexican magazine Proceso last weekend.

Lopez Obrador said the "cover-ups" were not the work of just "one government."

Last Monday, Lopez Obrador said U.S. officials with the Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Drug Enforcement Agency should be investigated for potential cooperation with Garcia Luna. The DEA and the CIA declined to comment. The FBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment, according to Reuters.

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Politics
Mexican President Says U.S. Can Still Apologize For Botched Obama-era 'Fast & Furious' Gun-Running Sting
By Benjamin Fearnow On 5/9/20 at 1:38 PM EDT






Current Time 0:16
/
Duration 0:21

Politics Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador Fast and Furious
Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador reignited demands this week for either clarity or an apology over a botched United States gun-running operation dubbed "Fast and Furious."

López Obrador said there is "still time" for current leaders of the U.S. federal government to apologize for the 2009-2011 border-crossing scheme which intended to trace firearm sales to Mexican drug cartel bosses. But the operation backfired after several weapons sold by U.S. law enforcement were tied to murders throughout Mexico.

On Monday, López Obrador first brought up the U.S. gun-running sting while discussing potential corruption tied to the drug trafficking arrest of Genaro Garcia Luna, Mexico's security minister between 2006 and 2012.

"What seems serious to me is that a violation of our sovereignty was carried out, a secret operation, and that Mexicans were killed with these weapons," Lopez Obrador said during a press conference in Mexico City on Friday. "There is still time for the U.S. to apologize."

The Mexican president urged his predecessor, Felipe Calderón, to also explain Mexico's involvement in "Fast and Furious," particularly any corruption that may have occurred during his 2006-2012 tenure in office. On Twitter, Calderón replied on Thursday that his government played no part in the botched operation. An exchange between the two last week highlighted the country's rising number of homicides during López Obrador's administration. Since taking office, his focus has remained on fighting the poverty which leads to crime rather than the aggressive military crackdown on the drug cartels which was preferred by Calderon's government.

Mexico Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard announced he would follow up with a letter to the U.S. in their latest request for more detailed information about the decade-old operation inside their border. A former American ambassador to Mexico, Roberta Jacobson, has previously suggested that both the U.S. and Mexican governments were aware of potential corruption tied to Garcia Luna, Mexico's ex-security minister. He was arrested in Texas by U.S. federal agents last December on drug trafficking and bribery charges.

Last Monday, Lopez Obrador said U.S. officials with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) should be investigated for potential cooperation with Garcia Luna. All three federal agencies did not respond for comment by Saturday afternoon.

"How could this be? A government that invades in this way, that flagrantly violates sovereignty, international laws," Lopez Obrador added Friday. "We have to shine light on this so that an action of this type will never be carried out again."


Lopez Obrador noted that President Donald Trump had been "respectful" to Mexico's government in joint discussions regarding national security issues between the bordering nations, Reuters reported. Critics of the president, including Democratic Revolution opposition party co-chair Fernando Belaunzaran, have accused Garcia Luna of helping Trump politically by reigniting the "Fast and Furious" criticisms this week. The operation was primarily set during the Obama administration, which included Trump's presumed upcoming foe in the November presidential election: former Vice President Joe Biden.
Belaunzaran on Twitter this week called the Mexican president's "Fast and Furious" criticisms a "badly disguised" political stunt intended to curry favor with Trump.

The White House did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment Saturday.
mexico president lopez obrador
Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador reignited demands this week for either clarity or an apology over a botched United States gun-running operation dubbed, "Fast and Furious." Pedro Martin Gonzalez Castillo / Contributor/Getty Images
 
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Trump plans to designate Mexican cartels as terror groups

May 10, 2020
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Donna Miller
2 Min Read

President Trump stated he plans to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist groups and “begin hitting them with drones.”

“I don’t need to say what I’m going to do, however they are going to be designated,” Trump instructed former Fox Information host Invoice O’Reilly in a radio interview Tuesday.

“I might be designating the cartels . . . completely. I’ve been engaged on that for the final 90 days,” he added.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador responded Wednesday, saying, “Cooperation, sure, interventionism, no.”

The leftist chief famous that he requested International Minister Marcelo Ebrard to arrange talks with Washington. Ebrard stated he was “already in communication” with Workforce Trump.

Below US legislation, a violent overseas group or one that threatens American safety will be designated as terrorist in nature and be topic to sanctions.


Christina Langford Johnson (left) and Maria Rhonita Miller had been amongst these killed by the cartel.Fb; Twitter

As soon as a gaggle is designated as a terrorist group, it’s unlawful below US legislation for individuals in america to knowingly provide assist.

Monetary establishments that change into conscious they’ve funds tied to the group should block the cash and alert the Treasury Division. The group’s members additionally can’t enter the nation and will be deported.

Trump’s transfer comes after he referred to as for a “warfare” on the cartels in early November, when 9 ladies and youngsters from a Mormon group in Mexico had been killed in a hail of gunfire.

The victims had been twin US-Mexican residents.

With Submit wires
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Iran
Pompeo Again Vows To Push For Extension Of Iran Arms Embargo
May 10, 2020 02:56 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has renewed his pledge to use all means available to extend a ban on conventional arms sales to Iran beyond October.

Pompeo reiterated the vow in a statement on May 9 to mark the second anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.

U.S. President Donald withdrew the United States from the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), on May 8, 2018.

Pompeo said since then the United States had built "the strongest sanctions in history and prevented Iran from funding and equipping terrorists with many billions of dollars."

He also said Americans were safer and the Middle East more peaceful than they would have been if the United States had not withdrawn from the JCPOA, and he reiterated his long-standing position that the United States will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

Pompeo also referred to this week's 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, saying the United States and its allies stood together then to rid the world of the Nazis and their hateful ideology.

"Today we face a grave challenge to regional peace from another rogue regime, and we again call on the international community to join us to stop the world's leading state sponsor of anti-Semitism," Pompeo said.

The deal provided for Tehran to curb its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions.

Trump called it "defective at its core" and after withdrawing from it reimposed harsh sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy.

He has said he wants to force Iran to renegotiate the deal, arguing that the terms were not tough enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and agree curbs to its ballistic-missile program.

Iran has refused, insisting that its nuclear program was strictly for civilian energy purposes, and has gradually rolled back its commitments under the accord.

Pompeo first announced on April 29 that Washington now also wanted to extend the conventional weapons embargo and said he was "hopeful" the UN Security Council would prolong the restriction before it expires.

Iranian President Hassan Rohani reacted by threatening a "crushing response" if the United States continued those efforts.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

World News
May 10, 2020 / 11:58 AM / Updated 8 hours ago

Three U.N. peacekeepers killed in roadside bomb in northern Mali: statement

1 Min Read

DAKAR (Reuters) - Three United Nations peacekeepers were killed and four severely wounded after a routine patrol hit improvised explosive devices in the northern Mali region of Aguelhok, the United Nations said on Sunday.

“We will combine all efforts to identify and apprehend those responsible for these terrorist acts so that they can answer for their crimes,” Mahamat Saleh Annadif, U.N. mission chief in Mali, said in a statement.

Writing by Bate Felix; Editing by Alex Richardson
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

World News
May 10, 2020 / 8:53 AM / Updated 11 hours ago
Mayor killed in ambush in Cameroon's restive region


1 Min Read

PARIS (Reuters) - Separatist gunmen killed the mayor of a town in Cameroon’s restive Anglophone South West Region on Sunday, the country’s state broadcaster and a senior military official said.

Ashu Prisley Ojong, mayor of Mamfe, around 500 km (300 miles) from the capital in the southwest of the country, was killed when his convoy came under gunfire from Anglophone separatist fighters, broadcaster CRTV said.

A senior military officer in the region, who requested anonymity, told Reuters that two soldiers were wounded in the attack.

Ojong is one of the first senior elected official to be killed in the conflict between Cameroon’s army and English-speaking militias.

The insurgency began after the government cracked down violently on peaceful protests by lawyers and teachers in 2016 who complained of marginalization by the French-speaking majority.

Reporting by Josiane Kouagheu; Writing by Bate Felix; Editing by Alex Richardson
 

jward

passin' thru
The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad
Bulama Bukarti

May 6, 2020



5825118 (1) (1)


Last September, I spent two weeks in Chad. Everyone I spoke to — government officials, average citizens,


Last September, I spent two weeks in Chad. Everyone I spoke to — government officials, average citizens, religious leaders, former fighters, activists, and aid workers — kept bringing up a topic they felt was key to the future of the country: the urgent need to properly “manage” returning Boko Haram fighters and their families. The issue is fraught, and raises a number of difficult questions about how to approach the problem. What should rehabilitation programs entail? Who will coordinate them, and who gets to participate? And where will the funding come from?

These are all questions that the government of Chad will need to grapple with. But in the context of the most recent attacks across the Lake Chad sub-region — in which hundreds of people including soldiers were killed — the most important question is how to assure communities that former fighters have been successfully rehabilitated. The issue is increasingly urgent, with residents and local experts expressing concern that the recent upsurge in Boko Haram attacks is due in part to former fighters returning to the group. After an attack in March that killed nearly 100 soldiers, the deadliest terrorist attack in Chad’s history, concerns about recidivism are likely to grow.

The government of Chad should define a clear policy for rehabilitating and reintegrating former Boko Haram fighters and their families into society. Such a step is crucial to prevent an unending cycle of violence in a country that has already witnessed decades of civil conflicts before Boko Haram’s violence. Moreover, the mental health needs of former fighters need to be addressed, both for their own merits, but also to protect their children from transgenerational trauma. This must be a part of wider program of community healing, and requires a clear legal framework that outlines the conditions for eligibility and terms of reference for supported programs and devolves responsibility for implementation and funding to the community level.

Chad does not need to start from scratch; there are promising local initiatives for the reintegration of ex-fighters upon which it can build. Often led by Chadians, these projects leverage modest resources to encourage disengagement, manage trauma, and rebuild trust. The Chadian government can also glean certain lessons from around the region including from Nigeria, a neighbor that has been running a program for defectors with similar grievances and experiences for years. Having interviewed defectors from Boko Haram in Nigeria — and examined the country’s program to reintegrate them back into society — it is clear that the circumstances in Chad, though similar to Nigeria, are unique and require a tailored approach.

Chad’s Fight Against Boko Haram

Boko Haram formed in 2003 in the northeast Nigerian town of Maiduguri under the leadership of its founder, Muhammad Yusuf. Its goal was to overthrow the Nigerian state and establish an Islamic “caliphate.” Yusuf used extremist interpretations of Islam to question the legitimacy of Nigeria’s secular government and Western-style institutions (e.g. schools and universities) and to justify acts of violence against political, military, and civilian targets, including dissenting Muslims. Boko Haram, which literally translates from Hausa as “Western-style education is Islamically forbidden,” became the deadliest Islamist group in 2015. The group’s violence was at first mainly aimed at Nigeria, but expanded from early 2014 to become a regional campaign with attacks on civilian and military positions in northern Cameroon, southern Niger, and western Chad. Since 2009, the group’s campaign has killed an estimated 30,000 people, displaced over 2.5 million, and exacerbated a complex humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad sub-region. Chad became a primary target after it changed its neutral stance on the group in 2015 by accepting Nigeria’s invitation to join the war against the group.

Nigeria has been fighting Boko Haram since 2009. Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Benin came actively onboard in 2015 through the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a coalition of units, mostly military, headquartered in N’Djamena and with a mandate to end Boko Haram’s insurgency. With technical support from Western countries, the joint task force has had some success against Boko Haram. Between 2015 and 2016, Boko Haram’s self-declared caliphate, which stretched across Nigerian territory roughly the size of Belgium, was dismantled. In addition, an estimated 5,000–7,000 fighters splintered into two factions and were pushed to the fringes of Lake Chad, a vast marshy body of water dotted with islets sitting between Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.

At the same time, the brutal actions of some MNJTF troops alienated many young people, pushing them into the arms of Boko Haram. A UN Development Programme study on the paths to violent extremism in Africa found that 71 percent of its respondents identified extra-judicial killing of family or friends and illegal arrest and retention by security forces as the tipping point for their joining Boko Haram or al-Shabaab, another violent extremist group operating in East Africa. Boko Haram recently regained momentum and has been launching attacks with increasing sophistication and efficiency.

March 2020 marked a defining moment in Chad’s war against Boko Haram. Following the deadly Boko Haram attack on March 23, the country launched a military operation codenamed “Operation Wrath of Boma” — Boma being the peninsula where the seven-hour long assault took place. It was the deadliest incident in Chad’s battle with Boko Haram to date. The offensive was personally coordinated on the ground by President Idriss Déby, Chad’s military dictator, who came to power in 1990 and is in his fifth term of office. Boko Haram is just another in a long list of problems, including political violence, corruption, and extreme poverty, that threaten Déby’s brittle regime, but it is currently the most serious of them all.

On the Ground in Chad

Back in September when I visited Chad, the debate on Boko Haram was focussed on the reintegration of former members. Joblessness and the continued attacks from Boko Haram left Chadian defectors of the group frustrated and on the brink of re-joining the group. That was the mood I picked up on during conversations with six former Boko Haram members — men and women — in Bol, western Chad. One man, Duna Lamba, joined Boko Haram in 2014 when the group was finding its strength and first proclaimed the establishment of an Islamic state. Along with several thousand other Chadians, he abandoned his home, renounced his Chadian identity, and joined Boko Haram’s “caliphate.” Duna had fought for two years when N’Djamena announced an amnesty, creating a pathway for fighters to leave the group and return to Chad. The group had suffered a number of setbacks following a campaign by the MNJTF, including having its food and arms supply routes constricted. Along with more than 2,000 others, he seized N’Djamena’s olive branch and left.

By one estimate, there are currently 2,200 former Boko Haram fighters in Chad. Upon turning themselves in to the authorities, some of these fighters were reportedly first held in an internment camp before they were released following accusations of human rights violations against Chadian authorities.

Former fighters first lived in settlements near the islands of western Chad where Boko Haram continues to wreak havoc, and then moved to a nearby village following a string of attacks against them. Duna and his family, as well as the others I interviewed, now live on the outskirts of Medi Koura in one of the largest enclaves of former fighters, which is home to approximately 1,200 former Boko haram members (including an estimated 300 women, some the widows of killed fighters, and about 500 children). They feel let down by the government. “They promised to help us to rebuild our lives but almost two years after our return, no one has done anything to help us,” said Duna. Most former fighters lost everything they had when they left to join Boko Haram. They claim that, before joining the group, they used to be farmers in rainy seasons and fished in Lake Chad or engaged in petty trading in dry ones. After defecting, they learned that their villages were amongst those targeted by the group. “We now have no businesses to run, no work to do, no farms to cultivate,” Modu, a former fighter in his early thirties, complained.

For many former fighters, the only alternative to rebuilding their lives is re-joining Boko Haram. “About half of those we came out with have gone back to the bush [referring the territory from where Boko Haram operates] after getting tired of waiting for help,” said Abakar who also fought with Boko Haram. “We were up to 4,000 three years ago. We are now not more than 2,000,” another one added, noting the number of former defectors that have re-joined the group. While this is difficult to verify, it is only logical that some disillusioned defectors may not have too many options. Given the limited opportunities in the area and their low level of education, it is hard, if not impossible, to re-start life without some sort of intervention. Defectors also speak of a lack of basic infrastructure. There are no schools or healthcare facilities for the 500 children of the former fighters. On top of this, they face relentless attacks by Boko Haram who view them as traitors. They were attacked twice in 2018 by suicide bombers in their former settlement. Despite several fatalities and injuries, these incidents did not get media attention, in part because there are no media representatives in the most remote and unstable areas of Lake Chad. These attacks are partly why they relocated to their current commune.

What Drives Boko Haram Recruitment in Chad?

There are perhaps as many reasons and motivations for joining violent extremist movements as there are fighters and no single factor that can account for an individual’s decision to join. Chadian fighters are not different, but a warped interpretation of Islam, illiteracy, poverty, and inequality, and a sense grievance, genuine or imagined, appear to be the main reasons why Chadians have joined Boko Haram.

Former fighters say they joined for ideological reasons to help Boko Haram achieve the objectives articulated by Yusuf, and they believe God will reward them for partaking in this cause, However, that is not the only reason, and the Chadian government can take steps to address other drivers such as poverty and a lack of opportunities. Roughly 13 percent of the respondents in the UN Development Programme study referenced above who voluntarily joined Boko Haram or al-Shabaab identified “employment opportunities” as their reason for joining. This represents the third most frequent response, the first and second were “being part of something bigger” and “religious ideas.” The report observed that while poverty alone is not enough to explain violent extremism in Africa, Boko Haram and others piggyback on perceptions of disproportionate economic hardship or exclusion due to religious or ethnic identity to recruit and radicalize young people. If these grievances — some of which are real — are not tackled, they will continue to be weaponized by violent extremist or criminal groups. African governments and their partners must address these real grievances and provide viable alternative pathways not only for former fighters, but also the society at large.

Although former fighters in Chad live without the threat of violent retaliation from communities, it is still essential to rehabilitate and reintegrate them. Dimouya Souapebe, the Secretary General of the Lake Chad regional government, perhaps articulates it best: “We need to change these people’s way of life… We need to reset their relationship with government.”

Dimouya feels strongly that shortcomings by governments across the Lake Chad region have contributed to making thousands vulnerable to groups like Boko Haram in the first place — namely through a lack of educational and employment opportunities. Dimouya is right. Several credible studies show that poverty and ignorance have played a part in Boko Haram’s recruitment and radicalization. The UN Development Programme found that most of its respondents who voluntarily joined Boko Haram or al-Shabaab had little or no secular education. The study also found that 57 percent of the respondents admitted to not being able to read or understand the Qur’an, the key religious text exploited by Boko Haram and other self-proclaimed jihadi groups. In Chad, only 50 of the 2,200 former Boko Haram fighters have been to primary school — and not all of them can read and write according to the Centre for Development Studies and the Prevention of Extremism.

Improved education and skills training appear to reduce the likelihood of Chadians joining violent groups. For instance, the UN Development Programme discovered that “a person who received at least six years of religious schooling is less likely to join an extremist organization by as much as 32 percent.” Similarly, researchers from Yale and Princeton, working with Mercy Corps, tested the impact of economic interventions and cash transfers on 1,590 beneficiaries in Afghanistan. They found that while neither vocational training nor the cash transfers alone had lasting effects on attitudes towards violence, the combination of both led to a large reduction in participants’ willingness to support opposition armed groups.

Duna and his friends’ questions at the end of my interview were pretty revealing in this respect. Their questions focused on employment opportunities in Europe, the pay, whether they are likely to get jobs, and the possibility of migrating. This is an indication that employment opportunities played a significant role in their recruitment into Boko Haram. It also shows that a rehabilitation program that includes employment skills such as literacy, civic education, and vocational skills, matched with work opportunities, has a fair chance of contributing towards community healing in the Lake Chad region.

Religious ideology is an important pull factor and must be tackled through credible interventions. Alongside poverty and illiteracy, Chad should confront the unique religious narrative upon which Boko Haram thrives. Boko Haram uses elements of Islamic teachings to recruit and radicalize young people and to justify its violence. It rejects secularism, democracy, and western-style education, which it considers to be both incompatible with Islamic values and hostile towards Muslims. The group seeks to supplant these systems with its version of Islamic ones. Former fighters who have rejected Boko Haram do not necessarily reject these views once they’ve left the group.

A program to rehabilitate former Boko Haram fighters should include imams to work with former fighters that provide a valid, alternative world view based on mainstream interpretations of Islamic scripture and doctrines. The religious leaders will need to be trained by experts on Boko Haram and other jihadi groups to understand how Boko Haram misuses scripture, the pillars of the group’s ideology, and how best to dismantle it. Imams and other experts that have experience deradicalizing extremists in other countries would be a useful source of expertise in designing such a program and training potential Chadian facilitators.

Trauma and Mental Health

Chad should help fighters deal with the trauma they have experienced. A significant percentage of these fighters have become addicted to tramadol, an opioid pain medication that they took in their bid to stay energic to fight. Women members have suffered rape and sexual abuse at the hands male members, and children have witnessed and participated in violence and seen aerial bombardments, leading some to lose limbs. Some have reportedly been subjected to torture and dehumanizing treatment by security forces. Two years after quitting Boko Haram, some former fighters still have flashbacks and nightmares. Having witnessed and participated in large-scale violence, suffered abuses, and/or become addicted to drugs, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental health issues are rife and need to be treated. Psychologists, drug experts, social workers and professionals can help with this.

Beyond the former fighters themselves, this treatment will also ensure better life opportunities for their children, which number in the thousands. Experts warn that growing up with parents suffering from PTSD can damage children’s physical and mental health. Given the scale of this issue in Chad, rehabilitation and reintegration go far beyond the family unit and will help community healing and cohesion, which are fundamental to building a sustainable peace. One potential intervention is psychospiritual therapy. This is a method by which imams and psychologists in Nigeria’s deradicalization program (discussed below) work together to treat individuals with mental health issues that are mixed with elements of religious ideology by drawing on surrounding divine forgiveness and the possibility of redemption.
 

jward

passin' thru
continued

Lessons from Nigeria

Chad should learn from Nigeria’s rehabilitation program, but a wholesale importation will not work.

To learn lessons from Nigeria, a Chadian government delegation visited Nigeria’s Operation Safe Corridor, a government facility that is deradicalizing and reintegrating “low risk” former Boko Haram fighters. Youssef Mbodou Mbami, Chad’s former ambassador to Niger and Nigeria and now a traditional leader for the Bol region, was on the delegation. He speaks highly of the Nigerian model and indicates that N’Djamena is exploring ways to replicate it.

The rehabilitation program in Nigeria works with an interdisciplinary team of about 180 experts that include imams, psychologists, doctors, teachers, drug experts, social workers, artists, and interpreters. They work to tackle three inter-related aspects of radicalization: countering Boko Haram’s ideology; mitigating the socio-political grievances that facilitate recruitment; and providing mental health support for ex-fighters. Operation Safe Corridor seeks to do this by highlighting Islamic texts in a way that promotes peaceful coexistence and counters Boko Haram’s ideology; teaching numeracy, literacy, vocational skills, and sports; and helping with trauma and drug addiction issues. Chad can learn from both Nigeria’s successes with this program, but also its challenges.

Operation Safe Corridor faces important obstacles. It is run by the Nigerian military, is extremely expensive, some participants have been treated unequally, and it is unclear if there is a legal basis in the Nigerian legal system for rehabilitating former fighters. One of the main limitations of the Operation Safe Corridor is that it is run by the Nigerian military. The armed forces have a negative reputation in Nigeria, and the military kept aspects of the initiative shrouded in secrecy, citing security concerns, some of which may have some legitimacy. As a result, the initiative is struggling to encourage communities to accept former fighters, in part because societies are not convinced about the effectiveness of the scheme. This scepticism was particularly apparent on social media recently following a recent escalation of Boko Haram attacks.

Furthermore, Operation Safe Corridor is also extremely expensive because of the large number of experts and security personnel involved, all of which need accommodation and maintenance allowances in addition to monthly salaries. Thirdly, its scope is limited as it does not treat women and treats teenagers on the same basis as adults. Finally, there are fundamental questions about the army’s legal basis to “forgive” former fighters and run the program. These are pitfalls Chad should carefully consider.

Conditions for Reintegration Are More Promising in Chad Than in Nigeria

Fortunately, former Boko Haram fighters in Chad do not face the level of physical threats as their Nigerian counterparts. Unlike in Nigeria, where deserters suffer stigmas and death threats from the communities they return to, the situation is very different in Chad. In Nigeria, residents have been deeply resistant to accepting former fighters back into communities, including those who have been rehabilitated, with some locals threatening to kill them if released. By contrast, in Chad, defectors live side-by-side with other residents without fear of physical violence.

That Chadian fighters mostly fought in Nigeria and primarily destroyed communities other than their own could be a significant explanation. Nigerian fighters destroyed their own communities, with some killing their acquaintances, family, or friends. Although Boko Haram first attacked Chad in 2012, the country did not become the group’s deliberate target until 2015, when N’Djamena changed its neutral stance on the group by joining Nigeria’s campaign. Only then did Chad see the first attacks on its capital and an escalation of violence on its side of the Lake Chad border. Despite that, in the past decade, over 70 percent of attacks and 80 percent of fatalities were in Nigeria. The remaining were distributed between Niger, Cameroon, and Chad, with Chad being the least impacted.

Figure 1: Violent Events and Reported Fatalities Involving Boko Haram by Country and Year (Jan. 1, 2009 – May 11, 2019).

Bukarti-1.jpg


Source: Hilary Matfess generated from ACLED.

However, this may not be the only reason behind these differing attitudes. Chad’s militia fighting Boko Haram, comites de vigilance, is not as strong as Nigeria’s civilian joint task force, which has been combatting Boko Haram for six years and has lost hundreds of members. It takes the lead in coordinating communal resistance to the reintegration of Boko Haram fighters in Nigeria. Part of the reason for the lack of community resistance in Chad could be the absence of an organized group to carry it out.

Furthermore, unlike large Nigerian cities like Baga, Monguno, and Bama that were completely destroyed by Boko Haram, most of the communities dislodged in Chad are small villages on the fringes of the country. Survivors simply do not have the capacity to mobilize around any resentment felt towards former fighters. Finally, unlike Nigeria where the legal and customary authority of traditional rulers such as emirs has weakened in the past six decades since independence, traditional institutions in Chad under the Chef de Canton still exercise limited governmental powers and command significant respect from communities. In Chad, these leaders have backed the government’s call for amnesty and the reintegration of former fighters. In short, while there may be stigma and resentment at former fighters returning to their communities in Chad, there is not currently the will or capacity to mobilize this into violent action.

What Chad Should Do

Chad should adapt Nigeria’s three-pronged approach and its use of experts from across multiple disciplines. However, rehabilitation programs should be run and managed by civilians, not the military. It is plausible, and could in fact be better, to develop a community-based model to support reintegration. Programs could build community centers to bring ex-fighters, survivors, and community members together. Such a program should have clearly defined objectives and measurement indicators in place and be subject to independent evaluation. It should run transparently while recognizing the real security risks of attacks from Boko Haram. To start, the Chadian government can build on the lessons learned from local initiatives seeking to support reintegration by young Chadians.

In addition, the government should support existing local initiatives that show promise in preventing recidivism and address the emotional trauma of former Boko Haram fighters. There are several initiatives run by young residents in western Chad to facilitate defections, heal trauma, and help reintegration of former fighters. A youth-led local radio station, Kadaye (“a traditional canoe” in the Buduma language), encourages defection from Boko Haram and promotes peace and social cohesion through talk shows, dramas, news programmes, testimonials, and storytelling in major local languages — Buduma, Kanembu, French, and the local dialect of Arabic. The station was so effective that Boko Haram felt threatened by it. According to its director Adam Tchari, it was warned and then targeted by the militia in an intercepted attack in 2014. Similarly, Iyal Hille (“Children of the Town” in local Arabic), a theater club, produces plays that discourage young people from joining Boko Haram and encourages generosity towards survivors. The theater performs street dramas in markets, village squares, and similar places and produce short films that are shared through social media. Radio and theater have proven their capacity to play a significant role in healing conflict-scarred societies, such as in Liberia, where journalists and artists contributed to the country’s post-civil war recovery. With the right resources, radio stations like Kadaye and theatre clubs like Iyal Hille have the potential to support healing and community cohesion not just in Chad, but across the Lake Chad region. Kadaye and Iyal Hille were previously funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, but funding has now been cut.

A similar approach is used by Taige Ahmed, a professional dancer and choreographer who promotes healing and reintegration through movement and rhythm-based techniques, as part of a bespoke methodology known as Pas ev Avant, developed with his company, Association Ndamsena. Ndamsena has an extensive track record of sensitization and community building work inside refugee camps in Southern Chad, conducted over the last twelve years with support from the U.N. Refugee Agency. Taigue works with survivors and defectors to heal trauma through movement and dance. These types of approaches to trauma healing have been validated through expert studies. Taigue says the aim of his pedagogy is simple: to bring a smile back to refugees who have suffered years of horror. Having participated in and observed one of Taigue’s sessions, I can see the potential of his method to help people recover from trauma. People who do not speak the same language are able to communicate and laugh using movements and gestures.

Conclusion

In recent years, thousands of Chadians have defected from Boko Haram. What they find in Chad upon their return is not promising. Many defectors cannot find work or a new, positive purpose to their lives. A sense of aimlessness, combined with attacks from their former group, leaves them frustrated and bewildered. Many have likely returned to Boko Haram and more could follow suit if they are not properly reintegrated back into the community. What is more, their children could suffer transgenerational trauma, grow up without an education, and end up with similar choices as their parents, if not worse. The cycle of poverty, radicalization, and crime could continue.

The only viable option for Chad is to implement a scheme to rehabilitate and reintegrate former fighters and their families. This program should adapt Nigeria’s three-legged approach of working with a diverse collection of experts to counter violent religious ideology, teach skills, and treat mental health and drug issues. Small-scale local initiatives in Chad are a good place from which to build. But to stand a chance, a program for defectors must be a part of a wider community healing and rehabilitation effort. There is an expressed desire on the part of the government to start something, but the devil is in the details. Western countries and partners helping national governments to fight Boko Haram should consider supporting Chad with technical expertise and financial resources to treat and reintegrate Duna and his former colleagues-in-arms. The problem of reintegrating former Boko Haram fighters into society is not going away.




Bulama Bukarti is an analyst specializing on extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in London. He has researched Boko Haram in his native Nigeria for a decade and is now pursuing a PhD on the subject at SOAS, University of London. He taught law at Bayero University Kano and practiced as a human rights lawyer and anti-corruption advocate in Nigeria for half a decade.

Where relevant, names have been changed to protect the confidentiality of individuals. Approval of Chadian authorities was obtained before interviews.


Image: U.S. Navy (Photo by Mass Communication Specialist Second Class Evan Parker)

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The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad - War on the Rocks
 

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Should China Worry About the Russia-US Reset?
The Diplomat May 8, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has offered ground for Russia to re-engage the United States. Moscow and Washington shared medical aid, struck an oil deal, and issued a joint statement commemorating their partnership during World War II. Amid an emerging new Cold War between the United States and China, is a resurrection of Kissinger’s triangular diplomacy in the making?


Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and the United States have sought to reset their relations several times, but with fruitless results. The Clinton administration’s engagement with the new democratic Russia was disrupted by NATO’s eastward expansion and military intervention in Kosovo. Although Vladimir Putin offered assistance to George W. Bush’s war on terror, the Iraq War, “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet space, and the Georgia War strained Russia-U.S. relations once again. Barack Obama’s reset with Russia did not last long either as crises in Libya, Ukraine, and Syria transformed into a geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the United States.


These repeated failures illustrate the systemic confrontation between the two countries. Russia and the United States have different understandings of the post-Cold War world order. While the United States remains as the only superpower, Russia perceives itself as an equal partner with the West instead of a loser in the Cold War. Identifying itself as a global great power and regional hegemon in the post-Soviet space, Russia opposes the U.S. unilateralism and expanding influence in Eastern Europe. In response, the United States has refused to recognize Russia’s sphere of influence.


Despite President Donald Trump’s eagerness to improve relations with Putin, Russia-U.S. relations have deteriorated due to sanctions and diplomatic rows. The U.S. Congress has stood tough against Russia and undermined Trump’s efforts at improving the bilateral relationship. The prospect of resetting Russia-U.S. relations remains bleak. Moscow’s recent engagement with Washington has a limited goal of extending the New START Treaty, which is in both American and Russian interests. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has insisted on China’s participation in a trilateral arms control deal.


Meanwhile, the COVID-19 crisis has caused frictions between China and Russia but is unlikely to undermine their partnership. Russia’s discriminatory anti-coronavirus measures and border shutdown with China demonstrate the mistrust among the two countries. Nevertheless, Russia needs China for its economic and technological development.


As China’s economy has suffered comparatively less and is supported by an ambitious stimulus package, it will become a key driver of Russia’s economic recovery after the crisis. The Russian and Chinese economies are complementary and trade between the two countries rose 3.4 percent in the first quarter of this year thanks to the oil price crisis.


Although Russia pursues the import substitution of technology, since its access to Western technology is restricted the government has increased imports of high-tech equipment from the non-Western world. Specifically, Chinese products, with better reliability at a reasonable price, have supplanted both Russian-made production and Western tech companies. As a result, Russia’s MTS signed an agreement with Huawei to build its 5G infrastructure. Russia’s embrace of a mass surveillance system with facial recognition will also enhance its cooperation with China’s Hikvision.


Most importantly, the Russia-China partnership is driven by systemic factors, namely their resistance to American hegemony. Both China and Russia oppose the Western-centered world order. The United States’ sanctions on Russia and pursuit of a trade war with China further pushed the two countries closer together. As the COVID-19 pandemic has underlined pragmatism in Russia-China relations, Putin and Xi will hope their phone calls help reduce tensions on the ground.


With looming prospects of a new bipolar order after the coronavirus, Russia will likely team up with China against the United States. U.S.-China tensions have escalated since the coronavirus and Washington regards China as its top rival.


One should not anticipate Russia will fundamentally change its foreign policy toward the United States, as their deep-rooted divergence cannot be resolved. Washington also has little to offer that can draw Russia away from China. Russia-U.S. relations will remain strained, if not frozen.


It is very likely Russia will join the China bloc as a junior partner in the new Cold War. Russian experts insist that China needs Russia in dealing with international issues and will take Russian interests into account. However, given its growing dependence on China, Russia will subtly play second fiddle in a Sino-centric bloc.


There is a third scenario, in which Russia acts as a balancer to prevent any global hegemony. If Putin means to restore Russia’s place as an independent global power, Moscow should intensify its diplomatic efforts to develop relations with other regional powers, including the EU, Japan, and India.


(Frank) Ka-Ho Wong is a research assistant at the Education University of Hong Kong and received his master’s degree from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. His research focus is on Russia-China relations and Russia’s Asia policy.


Copyright 2020 - The Diplomat; distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC
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With US Afghan exit, Russia
eyes Central Asian security


Azima Akhmatova

An unstable Afghanistan threatens all kinds of trouble for
its neighbours. For Russia, it may be a golden opportunity.

Published 7 May 2020 10:00   0 Comments





Three months have passed since the United States and the Taliban signed an “Agreement for bringing peace to Afghanistan”. For the Americans, it aims to put an end to the US military intervention in Afghanistan, which has lasted more than 18 years. The provisions of the agreement stipulate a withdrawal of all American and foreign forces from the country within 14 months. In exchange, the Taliban has committed to preventing the use of Afghanistan’s territory for “threatening the security of the United States and its allies”. The agreement also calls for the Taliban to engage in dialogue with the Afghan government.

While commentators have written extensively about the pros and cons of the US-Taliban deal, the ramifications for the security stance of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours in Central Asia have been largely overlooked.

The region has a long history of ideas and people – including militants – flowing across Afghanistan’s Central Asian borders. Some of the most active militants in Afghanistan are of Central Asian–rooted groups such as the Islamic movements of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the Turkistan Islamic Party (formerly East Turkistan Islamic Movement), founded in Western China; and Islamic State Khorasan Province, which, unlike the Taliban, has broader regional ambitions. Neighbouring states are also particularly worried about Central Asian returnees to Afghanistan from the Middle East as the Syrian civil war draws nearer to an end. These factors will ultimately drive the region to accelerate its security coordination and relations with its former patron: Russia.

Russia’s security concerns in the region encompass a variety of factors such as the drug trade, human trafficking, illegal migration, and, above all, terrorism. All these elements are centrally rooted in Afghanistan.

For Russia, the US withdrawal may have served it with a golden opportunity to reconfigure its position in the Central Asian region. Russia sees its security presence in post-Soviet states as a logical conclusion to shared Soviet history, geographical proximity, and unified threats. Russia’s security concerns in the region encompass a variety of factors such as the drug trade, human trafficking, illegal migration, and, above all, terrorism. All these elements are centrally rooted in Afghanistan, which will likely propel Russia to entrench its security involvement with Central Asian states.

Russia has spread its influence and sway in the region through the grip of international institutions such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Although these organisations enable Russia to integrate with Central Asian states on economic, political, and social levels, they also open the way for elevated security coordination. These institutions have begun to formulate measures to counter perceived threats from Afghanistan. In March, representatives of the border agencies of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in Samarkand to devise plans to prevent infiltration by militants from Afghanistan.
Khalilzad%20Doha%20copy.jpg
US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad (left) and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Taliban leader in Qatar, sign the US-Taliban peace agreement, 29 February 2020 in Doha (Wikimedia Commons)
Russia also holds a near-monopoly over the arms trade in the region, where it has been the primary source for military equipment since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Recent reports suggest that Central Asian states may be modernising their military forces and security services with active Russian support. For example, Uzbekistan has concluded various contracts to purchase advanced military equipment from Russia, including helicopters, radar systems, armoured personnel carriers, and fighter jets. Military cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan has increased since the two sides bridged military relations in 2017. Uzbekistan’s purchases will be at least partially financed by Moscow-backed loans, further entangling Uzbek financial and military resources with Russia.

In Kazakhstan, Russia is actively involved in measures to modernise the military’s air assets. In 2019, the two states agreed to launch a production facility for Russian-made helicopters. Despite plans to develop a home-grown military industry, the country has recently purchased significant Russian military hardware.

In the same vein, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are militarily intertwined with Russia, as Russia in recent years has upped its military assistance to the two nations. Kyrgyzstan has hosted a Russian air base since 2003. The Kant air base functions as part of the joint forces of the CTSO. In February, Russia announced its intention to establish a drone unit and install advanced air defence systems at the Kant air base. This follows Russia’s deployment of advanced anti-aircraft missile systems in a military base near Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan.

In the face of this, it is difficult to imagine the future of the security structure of Afghanistan and Central Asia without an active role for Russia. Russian experts have been vocal about their fears of the potential for continued conflict in Afghanistan, and the destabilisation of the current security structure. The 1989 withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan eventually led to all-out civil war after the breakdown of a power-sharing agreement among rival warlords, following the collapse of the Soviet-backed communist regime in Kabul. The Taliban emerged as a direct response to the resulting chaos and corruption.

While the current power transition in Afghanistan might occur without complications, observers find it hard to envision a peaceful march ahead for the country. This will certainly create a vacuum and the need for heightened Russian intervention in the region, which will be framed along the lines of preserving order. Central Asian states, faced with the ambiguity of Afghanistan’s future, will surely welcome this involvement.

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Editors' Pick|103,689 views|May 10, 2020,07:50am EDT
Satellite Images Show That Chinese Navy Is Expanding Overseas Base
H I Sutton
H I Sutton
Contributor

Aerospace & Defense
I cover the changing world of underwater warfare.

China’s navy, formally known as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), has become more active in the Indian Ocean and Middle East. A cornerstone of its increasing reach is an overseas naval base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. Recent satellite images indicate that China is continuing work at the fortified Support Base there.

The images show that the pier is now substantially complete, so it should be able to accept ships soon. One image from March this year has been shared on Twitter by user @detresfa_, an open-source intelligence analyst. It shows an excavator working on the reclaimed land, a small but telling detail. Analysis suggests that this may be the start of a new quay or second large pier, significantly increasing the capacity of the base.

The base, China’s first overseas, was opened in 2017 but the piers are still under construction. The base is substantial with a well laid-out interior and large helicopter apron. There is no sign of protective tunnels for the ships, unlike some bases in China, but it is undoubtedly intended to be defendable. The outer perimeter is fortified like a modern-day castle with steep berms topped by towers and two rows of walls. There are even battlements.

Today In: Aerospace & Defense
Major work on a 1,120-foot pier appears to have been finished late last year. This is just long enough to accommodate China’s new aircraft carriers, assault carriers or other large warships. It could easily accommodate four of China’s nuclear powered attack submarines if required. But it is still relatively limited so it seems natural that China would look to increase the piers. The new activity may point to a second quay or pier near the first.

Djibouti is a strategic port on the mouth of the Red Sea with easy access to the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. Many vessels involved in anti-piracy and tanker protection missions stop there. China itself has been involved in these operations, and a Chinese tanker was briefly seized by Iran on April 14. The two countries have warm relations and the seizure appears to have been a mistake. The vessel was quickly released.

USS Ramage (DDG 61) departs the Horn of Africa on February 24, 2020


US Navy Arleigh Burke-class AEGIS destroyer USS Ramage visiting Djibouti in February 2020. This ... [+]
US Navy
One area of concern for Western militaries is the Chinese bases’ proximity to their own facilities. It is only around 7 miles from the U.S. Navy Expeditionary Base at Camp Lemonnier. This was established in 2001 and is the U.S. military’s only permanent base in Africa. And it is less than 5 miles from the main port at Djibouti which U.S. Navy and European warships frequently visit.

In May 2018 the U.S. Department of Defense formally complained to the Chinese Government about lasers being directed at aircraft from the base. Two airmen were injured.

We have yet to see how China will use this new base to support its navy, but the investment is significant. It seems unlikely that it is intended for only occasional use. Additionally there has been analysis that suggests that China may look to Pakistan or Myanmar as another basing location. Whatever the level of activity at the new base, it is a significant change in China’s blue-water naval capability.



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Argument
The Pandemic Has Triggered Dramatic Shifts in the Global Criminal Underworld
Drug cartels are facing broken supply chains, shrinking revenues, and shifting markets. Rising violence is just one effect.
By Robert Muggah | May 8, 2020, 8:22 AM
Peruvian Army soldiers stand guard during an operation to blow up a landing strip used by drug smugglers in the Amazon jungle, near Oxapampa, Peru, on Oct. 31, 2019.

Peruvian Army soldiers stand guard during an operation to blow up a landing strip used by drug smugglers in the Amazon jungle, near Oxapampa, Peru, on Oct. 31, 2019. CRIS BOURONCLE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images


To say that COVID-19 changes everything is already a cliché. But it’s also true. The pandemic is deepening tension between China and the United States, accelerating the digitalization of commerce, and shining a bright light on the inequalities that divide our societies. It is also triggering dramatic knock-on effects in the criminal underworld. After a temporary lull in homicidal violence in some countries, there are signs that it is rising once more. Meanwhile, crime groups are migrating online to where the action is. If left to their own devices, they could make the world a more dangerous place.

Many countries actually witnessed declines in some types of crime and increases in others shortly after the imposition of social distancing and lockdowns to slow the virus. In much of North America and Western Europe, for example, murder and violent assault plummeted as people stayed at home. On the other hand, reported domestic abuse and sexual violence exploded. Predictably, the confinement of people to their homes increased exposure to abusive partners.

Some of the world’s most violent nations recorded dramatic drops in violent crime. U.S. cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York experienced stunning declines in robbery and rape. El Salvador, routinely ranked among the most dangerous countries, saw homicides drop from 114 in February to 65 in March. South Africa, the continent’s crime capital, registered just 94 homicides in the first few weeks of lockdown, compared with 326 during the same period the year before.

Although welcome, these improvements in safety could be fleeting. Physical distancing, curfews, and shelter-in-place orders are not deterring drug cartels, gangs, and militias.
Physical distancing, curfews, and shelter-in-place orders are not deterring drug cartels, gangs, and militias.
To the contrary, a combination of police shortages and supply and demand shocks in the drug market are triggering fresh waves of violence, especially in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, where criminal groups are fighting over a diminishing pie. The deterioration in security also appears to be compounded by the early release of inmatesfrom the region’s notoriously violent prisons—some of whom are already settling old scores.

[Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak: Get daily updates on the pandemic.]

Brazil’s three-year decline in homicide has come to screeching halt. In São Paulo, home to one of Latin America’s most powerful drug trafficking organizations, murders were up 10 percent between March 2019 and March 2020. And in the northern state of Ceará, violent crimes (including homicide) spiked by 98 percent in just 10 days in March. Levels of reported domestic violence have also surged in most states, including by more than 50 percent in Rio de Janeiro alone.

Mexico also witnessed a dramatic escalation in lethal violence, especially in states like Chihuahua, Michoacán, and especially Guanajuato, which are dominated by drug cartels. The authorities registered more than 2,500 homicides nationwide in March, the highest monthly toll since records started being kept in 1997. With the armed forces and police distracted with pandemic control measures, Mexico’s more than 200 criminal groups are fighting over control of drug routes and industrial-scale syphoning of gasoline.

Even El Salvador’s remarkable crime decline was shattered by a sharp increase in gang violence over the past weeks. After dozens of people were slaughtered over a single weekend in late April, the president ramped up arrests and authorized lethal force to stem the bloodshed. These iron-fisted measures could make a bad situation worse: Gangs already control the country’s jails, and the mixing of rival factions is a recipe for disaster.
Read More

Protesters at a vigil for murdered social leaders in Bogotá, Colombia, on July 6, 2018.
We Can Make the Post-Coronavirus World a Much Less Violent Place
The pandemic has decreased some kinds of crime and increased others. But the world is much safer than it used to be, and we know how to make it even safer.

A man looks at a solidarity basket displayed with a note reading Who can, put, who cannot, take in one of the deserted streets in the historic center of Naples on April 3.
Mafia, Poverty, and the Pandemic
In southern Italy, an already shaky economy is left struggling by the coronavirus—leaving a vacuum for organized crime.

Across these and other countries, crime groups, not police, are enforcing lockdown orders in informal settlements and slums. Criminal factions, militias, and mafia groups are also conveniently reinforcing their soft power in the process. Some are providing basic services and delivering toilet paper, canned goods, and perishable food items to the poor, infirm, and older adults. Others are posting warnings online and off about abiding by curfews and social isolation. Their appeal may be growing at a time when government leadership is lacking.

The surge in drug-related violence partly comes down to changes underway in global markets. The slowdown in international trade means that cartels and gangs have fewer opportunities to move their illegal merchandise through global supply chains, whether by land, air, or sea. Meanwhile, drug producers in Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico are struggling to source precursor chemicals to make methamphetamines, fentanyl, and even cocaine. The lockdown of Chinese factories is not only impacting the export and sale of iPhones but also of counterfeit goods.

The global economic crunch is triggering supply and demand shocks for the narcotics business as a whole. Anticipating a slowdown in international trade due to the pandemic, some Latin American traffickers ramped up shipments in recent months. European law enforcement officials reported a surge in cocaine imports in March and April with sizable seizures in Antwerp, Belgium, one of the continent’s busiest ports. And despite the shuttering of many international airports, satellites have tracked a steady stream of planes landing and taking off from Guinea-Bissau, suggesting that its role as a known transit hub for cocaine persists.

There are signs that users themselves are substituting in alternatives once their drug of choice becomes harder to source. Growing numbers of Europeans are reportedly shifting from foreign-manufactured cocaine to homegrown marijuana. Others are hoarding drugs, which means increased prices. As a result, some heroin users are shifting to more potent and dangerous opiates such as fentanyl. Across the region, COVID-19 is also accelerating the purchase of drugs online, including via the so-called dark web.

The disruptions to global drug markets may be temporary, but they could have longer-term effects on crime.
The disruptions to global drug markets may be temporary, but they could have longer-term effects on crime.
With their liquidity drying up, gangs will increasingly target banks, shops, and residences to generate revenue. In Latin America and other parts of the world, crime groups will resort to old-fashioned kidnapping, extortion, and protection rackets to keep the cash flowing. People-smuggling will suffer a downturn due to the tightening of borders, putting trafficked victims at greater risk. Meanwhile, many crime syndicates will branch into more lucrative businesses—especially cybercrime such as ransomware, phishing, and identity theft, which has seen a sharp riseas the world goes increasingly digital.


The COVID-19 pandemic is also shaking up other forms of organized crime. The trade of endangered wildlife is one example. China banned the trade in wildlife early into the pandemic. But this may mean such activity moves elsewhere, with reports emerging of Vietnamese traders in Hanoi marketing tiger bone glue and rhino horn as cures for COVID-19. Meanwhile, Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation cartel is reportedly already one of the top vendors of stolen and pirated pharmaceutical products. They are part of a thriving global black market for counterfeit or stolen medicine and personal protective equipment.

Far from view, COVID-19 has given rise to a transformation in organized crime. In addition to fueling rising violence, the pandemic could enhance the social, economic, and political clout of some criminal organizations in the same way that the Italian mafia and Japanese yakuza emerged stronger after the great dislocations of World War II. Crime bosses know full well that law enforcement and criminal justice systems are overstretched and that prisons are bursting at the seams in Latin America and elsewhere. They also know great scarcity is coming, which may increase the risk of violence. The question is whether we are even remotely ready.


Robert Muggah is the founder of the Igarapé Institute and SecDev Group. He is the author (with Ian Goldin) of Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years, to be published in August 2020 by Penguin.


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Africa's Sahel becomes latest al-Qaeda-IS battleground

By Mina Al-Lami BBC Monitoring

  • 11 May 2020
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_112228544_jihad1.jpg

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/904/cpsprodpb/AE26/production/_112228544_jihad1.jpg
Image caption IS and al-Qaeda's JNIM are both active in the Sahel region where they compete for power
West Africa's Sahel region has become the latest scene of jihadist in-fighting, after Islamic State group (IS) revealed it is engaged in fierce clashes with al-Qaeda militants in Mali and Burkina Faso.

IS made the revelation on 7 May in a detailed report in its weekly newspaper al-Naba.

It blamed al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), for starting the fight and mobilising large forces to attack IS positions in the two countries.
The scenario is familiar. IS and al-Qaeda affiliates have already locked horns in other jihadists hotspots, such as Yemen, Somali and Syria, competing for influence, recruits and resources.

The IS article contradicts mainstream reports from earlier this year that suggested the two groups were collaborating in the region.

The in-fighting could have an impact on jihadist operations against local and foreign troops in the Sahel, where both groups have significantly stepped up attacks since last year.
Image copyright ISLAMIC STATE PROPAGANDA Image caption IS revealed the clashes with JNIM through its weekly newspaper al-Naba What did IS say?
In its report, IS decried recent al-Qaeda attacks on IS militants in Mali and Burkina Faso, where both groups are active.

It said JNIM, on the orders of its leaders Iyad Ag Ghaly and Amadou Koufa, had amassed big forces to target IS on a number of occasions in both countries since April.

It also complained that JNIM was blocking fuel supplies from reaching IS militants and detaining locals suspected of supporting IS.

This JNIM move, IS said, coincides with an upscale in operations against IS by regional African and French troops in the Sahel.

JNIM, IS claimed, used these conditions as an opportunity to target IS at this particular time.

It alleged that IS was the only obstacle facing JNIM today, since the latter has agreed to hold talks with the Mali government and has allegedly made peace with all pro and anti government forces and tribes in northern Mali, including "the pagan" Dogon self-defence militias.

IS has previously sought to use JNIM's willingness to open dialogue with Malian authorities as a means to undermine the al-Qaeda group's jihadist credentials.

Why now?
It is not clear why IS and JNIM have not publicly discussed the clashes until this latest IS report, especially given that, according to IS, there has been heavy fighting since 17 April.
The IS revelation, however, follows an unverified statement attributed to JNIM and shared online on 5 May by unofficial jihadist accounts, in which the al-Qaeda group firmly rejected a purported IS ceasefire proposal.

If the statement is authentic, it may explain why IS decided to go public with the story now.

The alleged JNIM statement came in response to an unverified audio message shared online in April and attributed to an IS Mali commander identified as Abdel Hakim al-Sahraoui. The purported IS message proposed a truce if JNIM agreed to pay blood money for slain IS fighters and to release IS prisoners.

Neither group has officially referred to the unverified messages attributed to them.
Image copyright ISLAMIC STATE PROPAGANDA Image caption IS recently released a 'documentary' that condemned al-Qaeda as "apostates" and sell-outs
The latest IS revelation finally confirms what local media have been reporting for weeks regarding hostilities between the two groups in Mali and Burkina Faso.

It also puts to rest mainstream media reports citing military officials earlier in the year that warned that IS and JNIM were collaborating and that this increased the jihadist threat in the Sahel. These reports, however, were never supported by messaging or propaganda from either group.

You may also be interested in:
Al-Qaeda-IS rivalry
The IS-JNIM clashes are the latest episode in years of in-fighting between IS and al-Qaeda.

The reasons are similar: IS accuses al-Qaeda of going soft and deviating from core jihadist principles, while al-Qaeda portrays IS members as blood-thirsty ultra-extremists who violate Sharia law and give "the mujahidin" a bad name.

To reiterate its stance against al-Qaeda, IS recently put out a lengthy "documentary" video listing all the reasons that allegedly made al-Qaeda and its branches, including JNIM, "apostates". The group used the video to urge al-Qaeda members to defect to IS.

IS's latest complaint about coming under heavy attack from JNIM in Mali and Burkina Faso is reminiscent of its claims in November 2018 bemoaning al-Shabab attacks on its positions in Somalia. This came shortly before the two engaged in active fighting and threatened to wipe each other out.

The latest Sahel fighting also coincides with heightened IS rhetoric against al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen, AQAP. The two groups have been fighting since July 2018.
In both Mali and Yemen, IS accuses its al-Qaeda rivals of secretly collaborating with either "secular" or government-linked forces and militias to fight IS.

IS is also engaged in fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan. IS has used the Taliban peace talks with the US, and JNIM's readiness to talk to the Mali government as key arguments to undermine these groups, in the hope of winning over their hardline members.

What next?
Jihadists have significantly stepped up their attacks in the Sahel countries since last year, prompting additional regional and international alliances and military campaigns in an effort to tackle the growing threat.

JNIM has certainly emerged as one of two of al-Qaeda's deadliest branches, along with al-Shabab in Somalia.

Meanwhile, IS in the Sahel - which officially calls itself "West Africa Province" but is widely known as Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) - has quickly established a firm foothold in the Sahel countries despite only revealing activities there in March last year.
The group has claimed a number of attacks with large death tolls on the armies of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

The latest jihadist infighting may distract the two groups and affect their ability to continue to plan and stage attacks against local armies and their foreign backers. The IS report painted a picture of serious IS-JNIM clashes involving deadly attacks and large numbers of fighters. It also suggested that IS was at a numerical disadvantage to JNIM.

The in-fighting may also undermine both groups' jihadist reputation and their ability to win recruits in the region. It is harder to convince locals to join a fight against fellow jihadists rather than government or foreign troops. Jihadists themselves often largely blame the weakening of the jihadist efforts in Syria on the in-fighting between the various groups.

This may be another reason why both IS and JNIM have not publicly spoken about the fighting until now.

BBC Monitoring reports and analyses news from TV, radio, web and print media around the world. You can follow BBC Monitoring on Twitter and Facebook.

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B-1B Bomber Brandishes A Belly Full Of Stealth Cruise Missiles While Deployed To Guam
The messaging is abundantly clear: U.S. bombers haven't tucked-tail and run from the region, and they stand ready to deliver a big, stealthy punch.
By Tyler RogowayMay 10, 2020
7th Bomb Wing displays readiness with Bomber Task Force deployment
Pacific Air Forces Public Affair—Public Domain

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twitter.com/Aviation_Intel

The "Bone" is back on the island of Guam and it brought with it the ability to deliver up to two dozen stealthy AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs)—the conventionally-armed bomber's weapon of choice during the opening stages of a major conflict—to America's warfighting capabilities in the Pacific. It's now abundantly clear that the Pentagon wants to make sure that friend and foe alike are aware of that fact based on the pictures the service just posted.

The photos show one of the B-1Bs currently calling Guam home having one of its three cavernous weapons bays stuffed with live JASSMs. The images showcase the fact that the B-1B can put even a peer state's most defended targets at risk from a standoff distance. The JASSM has a declared range of around 230 miles, while its enhanced successor, the JASSM-ER, can reach out and touch targets nearly 600 miles from its point of launch. The B-1B itself has an intercontinental range.

We Have New Info And Photos From Yesterday's Surprise B-1B Mission Across The Pacific (Updated)By Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
The Air Force Abruptly Ends Its Continuous Bomber Presence On Guam After 16 YearsBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Proposed Facility Would Drastically Cut Down Time Required To Arm Bombers On GuamBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
A B-1B Bomber Just Flew Near Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula After Crossing The Bering SeaBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Congress Poised To Cancel Non-Nuclear Version Of Air Force's Future Stealth Cruise MissileBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
All told, it's a potent message to send and one that is fairly certain to get its intended recipient's attention.


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USAF
A very interesting view of the JASSM that showcases its stealthy shaping and low-observable glazing over its imaging infrared sensor that is used for extremely precise targeting during the terminal phase of the missile's flight.

We were the first to report last month on the Air Force's abrupt ending of its continuous bomber presence at Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam after a decade and a half. In that time, there were always a number of bombers assigned to the island outpost. We were also first to report on what would become a flurry of B-1B activity throughout the Pacific, with the swing-wing bombers flying roundtrip missions from the continental U.S. to as far as the South China Sea and back over the last few of weeks. Now, even though B-1Bs are back at Andersen Air Force Base, just how long the bombers will stick around there is anyone's guess.

USAF B-1Bs WHIP01 & 02 departed Andersen AFB, Guam to conduct operations over the South China Sea via separate routes

USAF KC-135Rs DOLE11 & 12 provided tanker support pic.twitter.com/xFLdyGUFK1
— Aircraft Spots (@AircraftSpots) May 8, 2020
What underpins this new strategy is a Pentagon's buzzword called 'dynamic force employment.' Basically, it entails going from being fairly predictable with the movements of strategic assets to being far less predictable in those deployments, albeit at the cost of persistence in a particular area of operations.


The grim reality is that all of America's runway-dependent airpower positioned from Guam west would have a huge target on it during the opening shots of a conflict with China. While Guam has a THAAD battery for ballistic missile defense, China would overwhelm any defenses with a massive barrage of ballistic missiles in an attempt to destroy any airpower there or at least neuter its effectiveness via denying it access to the runways and other support infrastructure it relies on.

With this in mind, not being so predictable doesn't seem like all that bad of an idea. Still, it's hard not to imagine that the move to end the continuous bomber presence at Andersen wasn't at least partially influenced by the state of America's overworked B-1B bomber fleet.

When it comes to loading cruise missiles onto a bomber at Andersen Air Force Base, it is no easy task. The base, with all its expansion and improvements over the years, still lacks the facilities needed to pre-load rotary launchers with missiles into 'packages' that can then be more rapidly uploaded onto bombers. Instead, each missile has to be loaded directly onto the jet, an arduous process that can take many hours. You can read all about this situation in this past piece of ours.

https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1589110587976-4115151.jpeg

USAF
As things heat up in the South China Sea, it isn't a surprise that Pentagon is using its intermittent bomber missions in the region to send a variety of increasingly blunt messages. Above all else, it gives some credence to the idea that the end of the continuous bomber presence in the Pacific wasn't really a strategic withdrawal from what is an increasingly volatile part of the world.
Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com
 

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This Is What Ground Forces Look Like To An Electronic Warfare System And Why It's A Big Deal
Modern units generate a large electromagnetic signature from their radios, sensors, and other systems that opponents can spot, track, and attack.
By Joseph Trevit hickMay 11, 2020
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The head of the U.S. Army's 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment has offered an interesting and unusually detailed look at the threat that electronic warfare and electronic support measures pose to American troops on the modern battlefield. The likelihood of a potential adversary monitoring friendly movements via electronic emissions and launching electronic attacks, as well as kinetic ones, on those units has only grown in recent years, with Russia, in particular, demonstrating just how effective these capabilities can be in Ukraine and Syria. American forces in Syria, as well as troops in Europe, have been also subjected to Russia's electronic harassment, as well, underscoring these threats.
On May 7, 2020, Army Colonel Scott Woodward, the commander of the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment, posted an annotated satellite image on Twitter that showed the electronic emissions signature of a battalion-sized element, along with support units, or "trains," during an exercise at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin in California. The 11th is the unit at the NTC that is dedicated to playing the role of enemy troops, or the Opposing Forces (OPFOR), during exercises and has a fleet of modified vehicles and other systems to mimic the capabilities and visual appearance of potential adversaries.



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Woodward's Tweet was in response to a question about the value of certain types of modern visible camouflage. He did say that under the right circumstances that traditional methods of concealment, especially nets that break up the general outline of vehicles and make them harder to immediately identify, an important general camouflage concept, could still be useful.

"Concealment will help you stay alive a little longer in the close fight," he wrote along with sharing the image. "What does your EW [electronic warfare] footprint look like is the larger question. If I can see you like this, it doesn't matter how much camo you have."

These were taken at the National Training Center, in California. Concealment will help you stay alive a little longer in the close fight.

What does your EW footprint look like is the larger question. If I can see you like this, it doesn't matter how much camo you have pic.twitter.com/EihBe4nEG3
— theRealBlackhorse_6 (@theRealBH6) May 8, 2020
The colonel said that the specific force seen in the image had thought the natural cover in that area of the NTC, known as Moose Gardens, had sufficiently concealed their positions and that they were also protected by the fact that it was dark. He said that his opponents in the exercise used their electronic warfare systems to spot his troops from a distance of 12 kilometers away, or nearly seven and a half miles.

That’s exactly what it is. BN with trains hiding behind MG at about 2300. Thought they were safe cause it was dark. Picked me up at about 12 K with EW
— theRealBlackhorse_6 (@theRealBH6) May 8, 2020
Woodward did not explain exactly what systems were generating the electronic signature that his opponents were able to spot, but communications and data-sharing systems certainly produce regular emissions, as do certain kinds of sensors, especially radars. The colonel also pointed out that these dangers were only going to grow as time goes on and new systems begin to enter service.
He specifically pointed out that the active protection systems that the Army is increasingly interested in installing on various vehicles to protect against anti-tank guided missiles and other infantry anti-tank weapons can dramatically increase a unit's signature in the electromagnetic spectrum. These defensive systems rely on a variety of sensors, including small radars, to detect incoming threats.

Except APS creates a HUGE EW signature
— theRealBlackhorse_6 (@theRealBH6) May 8, 2020
The 11th's commanding officer also did not say what type of system the other side had used to locate his forces. On the ground, the Army has a number of vehicle-mounted and dismounted signals intelligence systems that have secondary abilities to detect, geo-locate, and then track targets by their electronic emissions. The service also has aerial signals intelligence capabilities on both manned and unmanned platforms that can perform these functions. None of these systems have the ability to jam or otherwise attack the source of those emissions.
For some years now, the Army has been working to reinvigorate its ground-based electronic warfare and electronic support measures capabilities with new and improved systems, as well as create new units focused on employing these tactics, techniques, and procedures, as well. Two years ago, the service's Rapid Equipping Force (REF) notably created a prototype Electronic Warfare Tactical Vehicle (EWTV) based on an M1235 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP). The EWTV used a modified version of a system primarily originally designed to spot and then jam remotely-triggered improvised explosive devices (IED) to spot and monitor hostile electronic signals, as well as attack them.

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US Army
The prototype Electronic Warfare Tactical Vehicle.
The Army has also been looking to expand its aerial electronic warfare capabilities, especially podded systems that its MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones can carry. In 2012, the service had begun development of the Networked Electronic Warfare Remotely Operated (NERO) pod in cooperation with what was then the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO), primarily as an airborne tool to jam IED triggers. As with the EWTV, NERO's electronic warfare capabilities had the potential for broader applications.

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US Army
An MQ-1C Gray Eagle drone carrying a NERO pod.
More recently, the Army hired Lockheed Martin to develop the Silent CROW pod, which also has electronic and signals intelligence, as well as cyber warfare capabilities, as part of the service's Multi-function Electronic Warfare-Air Large (MFEW-AL) program. On Apr. 29, Lockheed Martin announced Silent CROW was moving into the second phase of development after initial risk reduction testing using an Army UV-18 Twin Otter fixed-wing aircraft as a surrogate platform to carry the system.

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Lockheed Martin
An artist's conception of an MQ-1C Gray Eagle carrying the Silent CROW pod under its right wing.
This is all in line with a resurgence of interest in electronic warfare, as well as emerging cyber warfare capabilities, across the U.S. military. The U.S. Marine Corps is pursuing similar efforts to the Army's to improve the ability of its ground forces to fight in the electromagnetic spectrum and the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy both have significant electronic and cyber warfare projects in the works, as well. This is on top of the extensive electronic warfare and electronic support measures systems that both of these services field already.
With even more robust electronic warfare systems that also incorporate intelligence-gathering and cyber capabilities, Army units, as well as those from other branches, will have the ability to spot their opponents at extended distances regardless of how concealed they might be visually, just as they did with the elements of the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment at the NTC. They will also be able to monitor their activities to glean additional information and launch electronic attacks on them.
Jamming and cyber attacks could make it difficult for them to coordinate other friendly units and cut them off from other sources of information. It could also disorient and confuse hostile forces, including by creating virtual decoys that appear to an adversary's sensors, or even on their own electronic warfare systems, to draw their attention away from actual American troops.
 

jward

passin' thru
continued


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US Army
The RC-12 Guardrail has been one of the Army's most powerful signals intelligence tools for decades. Now in its latest RC-12X form, it provides multi-mission electronic surveillance support.
Just being able to geolocate enemy forces electronically, which they might not be aware is even happening, opens up the immediate possibility of launching artillery or airstrikes against those positions. Mixing those strikes together with additional electronic or cyber attacks could be particularly devastating.
American forces are also at risk of having the same things done to them. The role that electronic warfare, alongside electronic and other intelligence activity and cyber attacks, has played in Russian operations in Ukraine has been a major factor behind this renewed focus on similar capabilities within the U.S. military.
Christian Brose, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the head of strategy at tech startup Anduril Industries, described a prototypical series of events during an engagement in Ukraine in his new book The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Brose describes an incident in which someone, likely members of Russia's intelligence community, spuriously called the mother of a Ukrainian commander and told her that her son was dead. She then hurriedly called his unencrypted cell phone to try to confirm whether this was true. When he called her back to tell everything was okay, Russian troops geolocated his positions from his cell phone signal and hit them with a rocket artillery barrage, killing him in the process.
Steve Trimble, Aviation Week's Defense editor and good friend of The War Zone shared the full passage on Twitter.

Quite an anecdote of Russian EW tactics in Ukraine in the new book “The Kill Chain” by @cdbrose. pic.twitter.com/vboGu1NrZB
— Steve Trimble (@TheDEWLine) May 10, 2020
This is just one of a number of similar anecdotes that have come out of Ukraine's conflict with Russia, as well as Russian-backed proxies, in its eastern Donbass region since it began in 2014. There have also been reports that American troops in Europe have been victims of similar cyber attacks and other electronic espionage seeking to gain information about their families, among other things. Geo-locating and attacking forces by their electronic emissions, as well as jamming those transmissions to sow further confusion, has become an important component of Russia's tactical doctrine. GPS spoofing is another emerging capability that Russia has been quick to embrace.
Russia has not limited these activities to Ukraine, either. There have been numerous reports of Russian electronic warfare attacks in Syria that are either directed at American forces or otherwise impact their operations indirectly. Electronic warfare has become such a major component of large-scale exercises in Russia that the effects often spill over into neighboring countries, as well.

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Vitaly Kuzmin
A Russian R-330Zh Zhitel electronic warfare system, which is used to jam cellular satellite communications.
The Kremlin hasn't been the only one to embrace these capabilities, either. China, as well as other smaller countries, also see a clear benefit in developing electronic and cyber warfare systems, especially to counter countries, such as the United States, that have long held advantages in areas including long-range communications and data-sharing, electronic and signals intelligence, and satellite navigation.
So-called "emissions control" tactics, or EMCON, are valuable to reduce the risk that electronic surveillance and attacks pose, but can also limit a friendly forces' general situational awareness and their ability to coordinate with each other. As such, forcing an opponent to go into a reduced emission state or a fully radio-silent operating mode can still have the effect of degrading their capabilities to some degree.

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US Army
The Wolfhound is a backpack-mounted radio direction-finding system that can detect enemy communications signals and determines their approximate location.
This is driving separate work in the U.S. military, among others, on electronic systems, especially sensors, such as radars and communications systems, that can work effectively in passive modes or otherwise have a low probability of intercept, making them more difficult to detect and more resilient against jamming or spoofing. You can read more about this in these past War Zone pieces.
Regardless, these electronic threats are definitely real and it's good to see the U.S. military taking them seriously now, as well as working to give its own forces their own electronic and cyber warfare tools. When it comes to exercises at the National Training Center, it looks like Colonel Woodward and the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment will be faced with a growing array of capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum that will keep challenging their ability to stay hidden and get the drop on their opponents.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com


Posted for fair use
 

jward

passin' thru
Global: MilitaryInfo

@Global_Mil_Info

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NEW: The “new strategic weapon” mentioned by North Korea leader Kim Jong Un at the end of last year is likely to be a new 3,000-ton submarine equipped with multiple submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities said - Dong-A Ilbo
 

jward

passin' thru
South Korea’s Mid-Term Defense Procurement Plan Largely Unaffected by COVID-19 Crisis
Despite the COVID-19 crisis, South Korea's defense budget remains mostly unaffected. Budget reductions in the "2020-2024 mid-term defense acquisition plan" will be limited to programs deemed as "non essential" and to a limited number of foreign procurement programs.
Xavier Vavasseur 11 May 2020

According to local media Bemil Chosun, the most impacted program is the F-35A Lightning II with a reduction of about $250 million. On the naval side, the Maritime Operations Helicopter-II (MOH-II) and the KDX-III Batch II programs have both seen budget cuts ($166 million and $83 million respectively).

Despite the above cuts, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) assures that delivery of F-35A aircraft and AEGIS combat system for the KDX-III Batch II destroyers will not be delayed since both programs are ahead on scheduled payment. The MND is negotiating to pay the remaining amount at a later date. The MOH-II program is set to be the only program to be delayed due to the budget cuts.

The MOH-II (also known as MOH Batch 2) program calls for the procurement of 12 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters for the ROK Navy for a value of about $800 million. Naval News understand that three designs are competing:
  • Leonardo / AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat (which is already in service with the ROK Navy)
  • NHIndustries NH90 Nato Frigate Helicopter (NFH)
  • Lockheed Martin/Sikorsky MH-60R Romeo

It appears by targeting foreign procurement programs with budget cuts, the MND tried to protect domestic programs. As a result, the “2020-2024 Mid-term Defense Acquisition Plan” remains largely unaffected…for now. The $241 billion budget for mid-term defense acquisition plan is divided into two categories: $86 billion for “Defense Capability Improvement” (New Acquisition) and $155 billion for “Operational Cost.”

Here are the main naval programs which are part of this procurement plan:
  • Acquisition of 20 additional F-35A… or B variant for the future LHD (LPX-II)
  • LPX-II program
  • Joint Fire Support Vessel program (arsenal ship)
  • KDX-III Batch II destroyer
  • Son Won Il-class (KSS-II/ Type 214) submarine upgrade program
  • Super Lynx upgrade program
  • L-SAM program (including its naval variant)

About LPX-II and F-35B
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LPX-II poster showcased by HHI during MADEX 2019

South Korean shipyard Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) was awarded a contract for the LPX-II conceptual design in October last year. The LPX-II project aims to build a new versatile large-deck landing ship for short take-off and vertical landing fighter jets.

HHI is expected to finish the conceptual design by the second half of 2020, with commissioning with Republic of Korea Navy planned for the early 2030s. The vessel, displacing around 30,000 tons would be based on the existing Dokdo-class amphibious assault ship (LPX-I project) and would be able to accommodate around 20 F-35B STOVL fighters.

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LPX-II animation showcased on the ROK Navy stand during MADEX 2019

The LPX-II vessel will also deploy future Marine Attack Helicopters of the ROK Marine Corps, for which there is an upcoming competition between local company KAI (with the Surion MAH), Bell Helicopters (with the AH-1Z) and Boeing (with the AH-64 Apache). All three companies were showcasing their solutions at ADEX 2019. As ship to shore connectors it will likely deploy the future KAAV-II as well, for the which the design was unveiled at the air show.

About Arsenal Ship
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Artist impression of the U.S. Navy “Surface Combatant for the 21st century”. U.S. Navy image from 1995 used or illustration purpose: The ROK Navy Joint Fire Support Vessel program (arsenal ship) design is unknown and yet to be revealed.

According to daily newspaper The Hankyoreh, the arsenal ship will likely be modeled on the locally produced KDX-II destroyer. It will be loaded with a large number of precision-guided weapons, including ship-to-ground missiles, for hitting ground targets. It’s expected to begin its mission in the late 2020s.

An arsenal ship is a concept of a floating missile platform capable of carrying and launching large numbers (in the hundred) of cruise missiles via vertical launch system.

About KDX III Batch II
MADEX-2019-Hyundai-secures-deal-for-KDX-III-Batch-II-destroyer-initial-production.jpg


HHI announced on October 10 2019 it has signed a US$565 million contract with the South Korean Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) for the first of three Gwanggaeto-III Batch II (KDX-III Batch II) destroyers for the ROK Navy. Under the deal, HHI will deliver the first of three Aegis destroyers by November 2024. South Korea approved plans to construct the second batch of three destroyers with a budget of around US$3.3 billion in May 2019.

Based on the existing Sejong the Great-class the new AEGIS destroyers will feature several improvements including improved combat systems that can detect and track targets at greater distances and anti-ballistic missile capability with Raytheon’s SM-3 interceptors.

The KDX-III Batch II will be fitted with SM-2 as well and, possibly, the new SM-6 “multi-mission missile” capable of long-range Fleet Air Defense, Sea-Based Terminal defense, and Anti-Surface Warfare.

KDX-III-Batch-II--1024x321.jpg


According to our information, the vessel will feature:
  • 48x Mk-41 VLS cells
  • 16x K-VLS cells
  • 24x K-VLS II cells (which are larger)

K-VLS will be used to deploy K-SAAM (Korean Surface to Air Anti Missile), replacing the replace RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM). It features inertial mid-course guidance and a dual microwave and infrared homing seeker for terminal guidance. K-VLS will also deploy Hong Sang Eo (Red Shark) rocket-based torpedo (K-ASROC) and Haeryong Tactical Surface Launch Missile (TSLM) land attack cruise missile.

K-VLS II is being developed to launch the future long-range surface-to-air missile (150 Km range) Cheongung 3 (also known as L SAM). Naval News learned from a source at LIG Nex1, that the naval L SAM (which is still in conceptual phase) will only have minor modifications compared to the land-based variant. L SAM is intended to replace SM-2 in the ROK Navy.

Compared to the Batch I, which sports 16 anti ship missiles, the Batch II will “only” have 8 of them.

posted for fair use
 
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