WAR 03-19-2016-to-03-25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

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https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/north-korean-nuclear-ambitions-ride-missile-development

North Korean Nuclear Ambitions Ride on Missile Development

Analysis
March 23, 2016 | 09:00 GMT

Forecast
To dissuade U.S. military action, North Korea will keep trying to develop a demonstrable nuclear missile that can reach the United States.
As North Korea works on a deliverable warhead, it will be important to watch its parallel efforts to build a long-range delivery vehicle for re-entry and guidance capabilities.
In their current forms, North Korea's tests of missile nose cones and guidance systems will not be enough to provide proof of nuclear deterrence.

Analysis

Amid the latest series of North Korean missile tests, South Korea's Ministry of Unification has reported that Pyongyang is ready to carry out its fifth nuclear weapons test detonation and may simply be waiting for a politically advantageous time to do so. Over the past few months, North Korea has apparently accelerated its efforts to develop a deployable nuclear weapon and a long-range missile delivery system. In addition to its fourth underground nuclear test and another attempted satellite launch atop a Taepodong/Unha rocket, which can also serve as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the North has recently published sets of photos of what it claims are a miniaturized nuclear warhead and a ground test of a rocket nose cone to demonstrate its re-entry capability. The images coincide with an uptick in rhetoric regarding the development of a viable nuclear deterrent. Though Pyongyang appears to be moving forward with its goal of creating a functional system, it still has several steps left to complete before it reaches its objective.

If the North wants to bolster the credibility of its claims of possessing a long-range nuclear deterrent, it will need to do at least two more things: conduct active re-entry tests to verify the viability of a nose cone and conduct a test of a guidance system for re-entry. In some ways, North Korea's path remains complex and difficult. After all, it is rocket science. In another sense, though, Pyongyang is not seeking to match current U.S., Russian or Chinese technologies. Instead, it would be sufficient to demonstrate technologies from the 1950s and 1960s — technologies that have been amply documented, studied and tested.

The United States developed its first ICBM during the span of two years of Atlas rocket tests. That said, it was able to draw on the considerable resources of a large nation. Pyongyang, meanwhile, is constrained technologically, financially and politically. And while North Korea may carry out fewer tests than the big powers, it cannot skip certain critical steps. North Korea's timetable has clearly been much slower that of the United States. Pyongyang's first Scud-B launch took place in the early 1980s; its first test of the intermediate-range Nodong followed in 1990. The first test of the longer-range Taepodong took place in 1998, with six launches so far, several of which were clearly unsuccessful. In regards to rocket technology, the North may be fairly confident it now has a viable launch system, at least to provide the range of an ICBM, and it is shifting its attention to developing a resilient nose cone and accurate guidance system.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...-korea-missile-timeline (1).jpg?itok=utrQmMd0

It is perhaps no coincidence that Pyongyang has shown off in rapid succession a model miniaturized nuclear warhead and a ground test of a nose cone. The initial ground test shown by the North was intended to highlight advancements in metallurgy and demonstrate the nose cone's ability to survive a simulated re-entry. But ground tests will be insufficient. The North's test rig may not quite re-create re-entry temperatures, pressure and vibrations. The North must conduct one or more flight tests with a nose cone that undergoes re-entry and is recovered. Sensors and dummy warheads inside will help determine whether the nose cone could protect a sensitive nuclear device. A test of a system with a real nuclear device is not necessary and in fact is extremely rare even among current nuclear powers for obvious reasons. The United States tested a complete submarine-launched nuclear missile in 1962, detonating over Christmas Island, and China tested a complete medium-range nuclear device in 1966, detonating over Lop Nor.

The North will also test a guidance system, likely alongside the nose cone survivability tests. This also requires live tests, with re-entry and preferably recovery of the re-entry vehicle. Given the general flight path of North Korean missiles and the size of North Korea, such recovery would probably be at sea, requiring additional naval developments by Pyongyang before a test could feasibly take place. While nuclear devices do not necessarily need an extremely fine guidance system (U.S. ICBMs with larger warheads with a five-mile margin of accuracy were considered acceptable), even a five-mile circle is fairly tiny at the end of a more than 4,000-mile (6,437-kilometer) flight.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...es/north-korea-missiles (1).png?itok=0zWY6WfR

Should the North carry out a successful demonstration of guided re-entry, it would match the United States at the stage of its earliest nuclear-armed ICBMs and mark a major step for Pyongyang. However, the world is a different place than it was in the 1950s, and technology is different, too. Pyongyang's current Taepodong/Unha systems require days of fueling before launching on one of the country's two suitable launch pads, which are kept under constant surveillance. The United States and China, and even South Korea and Japan, have the capability to detect and destroy a rocket on the pad, reducing the value of the nuclear deterrent. However, successful testing of the KN-08 mobile missile system or further tests of its submarine-launched missile may serve as the final step for the North to showcase a viable deterrent capability.

As we watch the North's progress, important tests to look for will include re-entry and recovery after launch. The success of those tests marks the difference between having a nuclear device and having a long-range nuclear weapon. Such tests will not go unnoticed, and the risk of conducting them is in their failure or the recovery of the re-entry vehicle by another nation. Pyongyang might develop a deployable short- or intermediate-ranged nuclear-armed missile without a re-entry test, but that would fail to achieve its intended goal of creating a demonstrable nuclear device capable of reaching the United States, which would provide what Pyongyang perceives as the insurance it needs to dissuade U.S. military action.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/0...-military-special-forces-active-in-syria.html

Europe

Russian general says military special forces active in Syria

Published March 23, 2016 · Associated Press

MOSCOW – Russia's top military commander in Syria says that Russian special forces have been active in the country.

Col. Gen. Alexander Dvornikov said in an interview with the government daily Rossiyskaya Gazeta released Wednesday that special forces soldiers have conducted intelligence to pinpoint targets for Russian airstrikes in Syria. He said they also have helped direct aircraft during their missions and carried out other unspecified tasks.

Dvornikov didn't say how many special forces soldiers have been deployed to Syria.

President Vladimir Putin last week ordered a pullout of some Russian warplanes from Syria, but said that strikes against the Islamic State group and the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front will continue. Those groups have been excluded from a Russian- and U.S.-brokered cease-fire that began on Feb. 27 and has largely held.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.newsweek.com/us-air-strike-kills-50-al-qaeda-training-camp-yemen-439914

World

U.S. Air Strike on al Qaeda Training Camp in Yemen Kills 50

By Reuters On 3/23/16 at 10:43 AM

ADEN (Reuters) - At least 50 militants were killed in a U.S. air strike on an al Qaeda training camp in the mountains of southern Yemen, medics and a local official said on Wednesday.

The attack took place as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) recruits queued for dinner at the camp, west of the port city of Mukalla on Yemen's south coast.

The Pentagon said on Tuesday that a U.S. air strike on an AQAP training camp had killed dozens of fighters but it gave no further details.

The Yemeni sources said that at least 50 people were killed and 30 wounded. The air strikes set off huge fires inside the camp, residents said.

"The planes struck as al Qaeda people stood in line to receive their dinner meal," a local official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters by telephone.

Yemeni residents had earlier said the attack on the base was carried out by war planes from a Saudi-led coalition which over the past year had been trying to stop the Iran-allied Houthi group from completing its takeover of the country.

AQAP has exploited the war to expand its control in Yemen , seizing control of Mukalla, capital of Hadramout province, last year and recruiting more followers.

The United States regards AQAP, formed by the merger of the Saudi and Yemen i wings of the group in 2009, as one of the deadliest branches of the network founded by Osama bin Laden.

The group had used Yemen to plot attacks against Western targets, including an attempt to bomb a U.S.-bound airliner in 2009.

It also claimed responsibility for an attack on the Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris that killed 12 people last year, although some analysts suspect its role was more inspirational than direct.

The United States has frequently targeted al Qaeda militants across Yemen with drone strikes, killing many prominent leaders of the group over the past few years.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/23/erdogans-epic-europe-trolling-eu-migrant-refugee-deal/

Argument

Erdogan’s Epic Europe Trolling

The EU's decision to restart membership talks with Turkey was a major victory for Ankara -- but not for the reason you think.

By Nick Danforth
March 23, 2016

Even amid the wide-ranging criticism of Turkey’s recent refugee deal with the European Union, there’s no denying that many of the demands the Turkish government put forward in negotiations over the past two weeks made perfect sense.

Ankara asked the EU for more money; that’s after it claims to have spent almost $8 billion caring for the refugees over the past five years. And it demanded visa-free travel to Europe by June; Turkish citizens have long dreamed of being able to visit the continent without the obstacles and indignities they face today.

But what about Turkey’s insistence on restarting its stalled EU accession process? This proved a major sticking point that could have derailed the deal entirely: It opened the agreement to the threat of a Cypriot veto, and infuriated many European critics who claimed that EU accession should be a matter of principle, not politics.

Yet for all the debate, both sides know perfectly well Turkey won’t be joining the EU anytime soon. With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government defiantly pursuing ever-more authoritarian policies, and the Union struggling to hold together with the members it already has, no agreement between Ankara and Brussels can change this.

It’s easy to understand why EU negotiators eventually conceded: For its part, Europe may actually be more comfortable perpetuating the illusion that Turkey is progressing on the path to EU membership now that it actually isn’t. But why did the Turkish government invest so much diplomatic capital in securing this purely symbolic concession?

Because of what it symbolizes, of course. By using its political leverage to restart membership negotiations, Ankara has secured public proof of its belief that being “European” has always been more about power than principle.

This is a dramatic reversal from 2003, when Turkish leaders insisted that Turkey would implement EU reforms for their own sake. When the Justice and Development Party (AKP) initially launched its push for EU membership, party members insisted that whatever decisions Europe made with regard to Turkey, it would continue with reforms to improve the lives of their citizens. The Copenhagen criteria, as Erdogan once said, were also the Ankara criteria.

But even in the midst of real reforms, Turkey still faced European prejudice and domestic criticism alike. With many Europeans questioning Turkey’s eligibility on religious or civilizational grounds, it was easy for Ankara to conclude that if their country was too big, too poor, and too Muslim for EU membership, being democratic wouldn’t make much difference. There was a particular sense of betrayal in 2004 when the AKP took a considerable political risk to back an unsuccessful peace plan on Cyprus. Cyprus rejected the plan, joined the EU anyway, and then become a vocal obstacle to Turkish membership.

During this period, Turkey’s nationalist opposition party took a revealing position on the subject of accession to the EU: The party platform supported it, but demanded membership “with honor.” The implication was that working to meet a series of EU benchmarks only to be met with continued rejection was a source of national humiliation. The deal that Turkey sealed with Europe last week represents the fantasy of membership with honor, a negotiation where Turkey was the one setting the terms. As one columnist described it: “Our prime minister said, ‘You know Turkey’s conditions and requests. Talk amongst yourselves and let me know.’ Then he went back to his hotel.”

Many countries have struggled to reconcile Western power, Western values, and Western hypocrisy. But, historically, Turkey’s unique geography has made that struggle particularly visible. A decade ago, when Turkish EU membership seemed like a real possibility, observers never tired of saying it would be the natural culmination of Turkey’s centuries-long quest to become European. But for a country that repeatedly faced the threat of involuntary incorporation into European empires, things were always more complicated than that. The challenge was setting Turkey on an equal footing with Europe militarily and economically. When it came to Europe’s professed democratic values, which Europe itself often seemed fairly indifferent too, the debate in Turkey has repeatedly turned on the question of whether these values might still be worth embracing for their own sake.

The first Ottoman parliament was formed in 1876, with a war against Russia looming, by Ottoman reformers eager to make the empire a constitutional rather than absolute monarchy. Additionally, some believed that this dramatic democratizing measure would help win them the support of democratic Britain in their military struggle. Two years later, though, with the war going poorly, Turkey’s new sultan decided that autocratic centralization offered a better path to preserving the empire than democracy. He dissolved the parliament — and nevertheless went on to enjoy continued diplomatic support from the British, who were eager to limit Russia’s gains for their own strategic ends at the time.

During the subsequent three decades, the empire continued to lose ground to its European foes, and many internal reformers concluded that the Sultan’s autocratic rule was part of the problem. In 1908, a group of military officers known as the Young Turks launched a Constitutional Revolution with the aim of reopening the Ottoman parliament — not because they expected Europeans to be impressed, but because they believed it would be a more effective form of government. But this democratic experiment would also prove short-lived. With the Ottoman armies struggling, and Bulgarian troops marching toward Istanbul, some of the revolutionaries decided that saving the empire required them to dispatch with the parliament and seize power themselves. They did not succeed: The Ottoman Empire was defeated and briefly partitioned by European states at the end of World War I.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk launched his famous campaign of modernizing reforms after first defeating the imperial powers occupying Anatolia. Ataturk had mixed feelings about democracy (as did many Europeans in the 1920s and 1930s). But he saw other Western ideals, particularly secularism, as universal values that would, among other things, strengthen Turkey’s ability to resist European colonization. Tellingly, though, Ataturk never spoke of “westernization,” but rather of bringing Turkey up to level of contemporary civilization. What’s more, he promoted a version of Turkish national history intended to prove that Turks had embraced, and even invented, many of these values before they had any contact with Europe at all.

In time, Turkey would come to embrace democracy on its own terms as well. After World War II, Turkish leaders once again sought Western support against the threat of a Russian invasion. While some believed that embracing democracy would help Turkey secure NATO membership, most of the country’s leadership, which had inherited control of the country from Ataturk, were confident that given the strategic situation, the U.S. government would be happy to cooperate with them while they continued to rule Turkey as a one-party state. All available evidence suggests that Washington would have been. As it happened, however, U.S. officials were as surprised as most Turks when Turkey’s president nonetheless decided to hold free elections and hand over power on his own personal initiative.

A half century later, the AKP under Erdogan has once again come around to the position that Turkey can get what it wants from the West without the need for real democratic change. In his own comments on the deal, Erdogan used the Brussels summit as an opportunity to lash out at what he saw as European hypocrisy on the question of terrorism. Following a bombing in Ankara last week that killed 27 civilians, the AKP moved ahead with efforts to arrest several leading Kurdish politicians and Erdogan declared his intention to target “terrorists without guns,” namely the journalists, academics, and NGO workers who are supporting Kurdish terrorists or criticizing his government’s counter-terror policy. Suggesting that Western leaders were responsible for Turkey’s terror problem, Erdogan said they would behave the same way in his situation. His argument rested on the assumption that the standards Europe held Turkey to were a fiction, rather than a sincere aspiration for Turkey, much less a sign of European superiority: “Turkey continues to carry out its battle with terrorism in a manner more democratic and more compatible with the rule of law than Western countries would when faced with a similar threat.” In a telling rhetorical flourish, Erdogan later said that in light of their hypocrisy, European statements about democracy, and freedom no longer meant anything for Turkey.

Today, Erdogan insists that European criticism of Turkey’s war on terror is motivated by indifference toward Turkey’s well-being, if not something worse. But when Erdogan and his party came to power a decade ago, they shared many of those same concerns about the heavy-handed war the Turkish military had been waging against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) for two decades. Their motivation at the time was not appeasing the EU but rather bringing peace to their country; many party members sincerely believed that criminalizing Kurdish politics while seeking to crush the PKK militarily had been dangerously self-defeating. A decade ago it was Turkish military leaders arguing that talk of rights and liberties was simply a Western ploy to divide Turkey. Now that the AKP has committed itself to the military’s former strategy, it has also committed itself to the same cynical view of the West, which conveniently enables it to delegitimize Western criticism.

The concessions that Erdogan has secured from the EU over the refugee issue make it easier for him to argument that European criticism has always been more about pique than principle. At the same time, Erdogan’s eagerness to attack Western hypocrisy and prove that EU acceptance can be coerced inadvertently reveals that there is a domestic audience at home that’s not yet that cynical. Europe may prove willing to burnish Erdogan’s democratic credentials in return for help with its refugee problem. But as the last century suggests, European attitudes have been far less influential in making Turkey democratic than those of the Turkish people.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016...sile-defense-is-more-necessary-than-ever.html

33 years and 33 minutes: Why missile defense is more necessary than ever

By Sen. Jim DeMint, James Jay Carafano
Published March 23, 2016
FoxNews.com

Wednesday marks the 33rd anniversary of Ronald Reagan’s historic “Star Wars” speech, in which he introduced the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) to the American people. The intent was to protect the U.S. from nuclear attack.

Today, when a ballistic missile fired from anywhere in the world can reach the United States within 33 minutes, Reagan’s bold vision for a multi-layered missile defense system is more necessary than ever.

SDI was intended to counter the Soviet nuclear threat. Unified ground- and space-based platforms would detect and destroy ballistic missiles after launch. It was a forceful rejection of the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), a strategy which relied on the specter of mass casualties on both sides to deter nuclear war.

Reagan’s victory-based approach was mocked by the political Left, which favored MAD rather than trying to beat the Soviet Union in the arms race. But that’s exactly what Reagan did; six years later, the Berlin wall came down.

Unfortunately, cavalier attitudes toward missile defense remained among much of the political class. They had first dismissed SDI as “Star Wars” sci-fi—until the technology actually existed. Then, they condemned it as too provocative—until the USSR collapsed.

Finally, came the excuse that America no longer had a major global adversary to justify the exercise.

The last surviving piece of Reagan’s SDI vision, Brilliant Pebbles, was a satellite-based platform which would have relied on kinetic projectiles to intercept missiles in low orbit. President Bill Clinton killed the program via budget cuts, even though subsequent experiments by NASA and leaps in technology made such a system eminently feasible.

Indeed, technologies developed under SDI contributed to ballistic missile capabilities the United States has today. Moreover, SDI research produced innumerable benefits beyond missile defense: cheaper and more capable computer chips, optics equipment, and specialized materials that businesses and consumers now take for granted.

But despite the progress made, SDI was never fully realized. The United States still lacks a unified missile defense plan, while the world remains a very dangerous place.

Although the Soviet bloc has been relegated to the ash heap of history, we face a new litany of global threats. Ballistic missiles are becoming more accessible to countries like North Korea and Iran. North Korea has repeatedly threatened the United States and its allies—South Korea and Japan—with attacks using its nuclear- ipped ballistic missiles. Iran continues to improve the range and sophistication of its missiles, while Russia aggressively modernizes its nuclear weapon arsenal and threatens U.S. NATO allies.


Our conflicts with these nations have thankfully not escalated to shooting wars. Yet. But that makes it all the more important to develop a new SDI for the 21st century while we still have the time.

Even if it remains in its silo or submarine, a missile targeted at an American or allied city with a madman at the controls could effectively hold U.S. foreign policy hostage.

The unconventional aspect of America’s current enemies—some driven by ideologies yet more reckless and bloodthirsty than Communism—means that mere deterrence and guarantee of reprisal will be insufficient to protect our people. Americans should be able to live secure in the knowledge that we can shoot down any weapon launched at them by another country or faction.

They will only do so when the political will exists to build a comprehensive missile defense. Many lawmakers are simply ignorant of America’s current vulnerability to attack. Some conflate missile defense with their understandable wariness of military adventurism. Others, like our current Commander in Chief, seem motivated by a desire to reduce America’s leadership role in the world generally.

Reagan realized that weapons of mass destruction, like evil men, would never be completely eliminated from the world stage. The
greatest insurance against nuclear arms and their proliferation is technology which renders them useless—a far better guarantor of world peace than fragile treaties with rogue nations. As he told Soviet Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev, “The genie is already out of the bottle. Offensive weapons can be built again. Therefore I propose creating protection for the world for future generations, when you and I will no longer be here.”

For the sake of those future generations, our leaders should take a page from Reagan and embrace a strong missile defense.



Former South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint is president of the Heritage Foundation.

James Jay Carafano is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies The Heritage Foundation. Follow him on Twitter @JJCarafano.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002829476

Govt needs to thoroughly explain nuclear fuel cycle project to U.S.

7:43 pm, March 23, 2016
The Yomiuri Shimbun

The nuclear fuel cycle project, which reuses spent nuclear fuel from nuclear power plants, is the main pillar of Japan’s nuclear power policy. In view of the serious energy situation, it is essential to make efforts to win understanding on this issue both at home and abroad.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman has raised doubts over Japan’s nuclear fuel cycle policy, stating at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, “I would be very happy to see all countries get out of the plutonium reprocessing business.”

He expressed a negative view toward moves by countries such as China and South Korea to consider a nuclear fuel reprocessing plan, saying such moves would raise concerns about nuclear security and nonproliferation.

The United States will host the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington late this month. The remarks by the U.S. assistant secretary of state apparently aim to keep China and South Korea in check by stressing the U.S. stance of leading the nuclear nonproliferation drive.

The existing Japan-U.S. nuclear power cooperation agreement that entered into force in 1988 exceptionally allows Japan to reprocess spent nuclear fuel and enrich uranium.

Under strict inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Japan has been promoting the peaceful use of nuclear materials and contributing to the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. The agreement is based on this record.

The agreement will expire in July 2018. We hope the Japanese government will do its utmost to help keep the accord’s provisions intact.

Japan’s plutonium for fuel

Japan possesses about 47.8 tons of plutonium, which some people point out is equivalent to about 6,000 nuclear weapons. However, this plutonium is stockpiled for reuse as fuel.

China criticizes Japan for possessing enough plutonium “to produce a large number of nuclear weapons.” Is China, which keeps the actual situation concerning its nuclear weapons secret and is reportedly enhancing its nuclear capability, in a position to criticize Japan?

Following the expiration of the nuclear power cooperation agreement with the United States, South Korea signed a new accord in June last year. Washington has not granted rights to Seoul that are similar to the ones it granted to Japan.

In response to North Korea’s nuclear development, the idea of possessing nuclear weapons is smoldering among the South Korean public. The United States is apparently concerned that tensions would rise on the Korean Peninsula if Seoul started using plutonium.

The challenge Japan currently faces is the practical application of the nuclear fuel cycle. If spent nuclear fuel is not reprocessed, storage pools of nuclear power plants will be filled with spent nuclear fuel, and those plants will become inoperable.

The reactivation of nuclear power plants must be accelerated and a so-called pluthermal project, in which plutonium is burned in normal nuclear power plants, must be put on track. Shouldn’t the Monju fast-breeder reactor also be reactivated?

During the Nuclear Security Summit two years ago, Japan agreed to hand over surplus nuclear materials to the United States. A ship carrying such plutonium recently departed from Japan. This is a good opportunity for Japan to emphasize its strict control of nuclear materials.


(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 23, 2016)Speech

 

[Housecarl]

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http://38north.org/2016/03/chamjin032316/

Location of KN-08 Reentry Vehicle Nosecone Test Identified

By 38 North
23 March 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Henry Kan.

On March 15, North Korean media carried photographs of Kim Jong Un as he observed and guided a test of the nose cone for what appears to be the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) reentry vehicle. The photographs show a vertical engine test stand that, while similar in structure to those at the Sohae and Tonghae Satellite Launch Facilities, is considerably smaller and more rudimentary. While the location of the test was not revealed, it appears that this test was conducted from the vertical engine test stand at the Chamjin Missile Factory southwest of Pyongyang, one of North Korea’s primary missile production facilities.[1] Some experts believe that this factory was also the site of Kim Jong Un’s recent photo inspecting a nuclear warhead.

Figure 1. Location of the Chamjin Missile Factory.

Figure 1. Location of the Chamjin Missile Factory.
Locations provided by Curtis Melvin.

Test Stand Capabilities

The vertical engine test stand at the Chamjin complex is located approximately 500 meters southwest of the main production facility. The test stand consists of a 17-meter circular support pad connected to a 22-meter by 15-meter rectangular access ramp, a 25-meter-tall vertical engine test stand as well as approximately six support buildings. It can hold an engine for the Scud short-range ballistic missile as well as a complete missile in the vertical position. It can also hold a larger engine for the longer-range Nodong, although probably not a complete missile.

Figure 2. Overview of the Chamjin Missile Factory and vertical engine test stand.
Note: The numbers indicate the direction in which the photographs listed below were taken.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Geolocation of the Nose Cone Test Site

By comparing the recently published photographs and commercial satellite imagery, there are several indicators that support the conclusion that this test was conducted at the Chamjin Missile Factory’s vertical engine test stand. First, the size and construction of the test stand (which has recently undergone refurbishment) match, as viewed looking east, including the presence of a silver tank on the support ramp.

Figure 3. Looking east at the vertical engine test stand during Kim Jong Un’s tour of the facility.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

An access ramp facing west is also visible in an image looking southeast at the test stand during the KN-08 nose cone test.

Figure 4. Looking southeast at the test stand during the KN-08 nose cone test.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

The photographs show the nose cone positioned approximately 1.5 meters below a Scud rocket engine both before and during the test. An image looking east at the KN-08 nose cone before the test also shows how close the ravine wall is to the test stand.

Figure 5. KN-08 nose cone before the test.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

The vertical engine test stand, access ramp facing west, and the ravine wall directly to the east of the stand are all visible in satellite imagery of the area from February 20.

Figure 6. Close up of the vertical engine test stand six weeks before the KN-08 test.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Photographs of Kim Jong Un viewing the nose cone test at an observation point approximately 500 meters north of the test stand further confirm the location. Apartment buildings can be seen in the background of the first image looking north.

Figure 7. Image looking north of Kim Jong Un’s observation point.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

In a second image looking west at the observation point, Kim Jong Un’s motorcade, the road and a line of trees can be seen in the background.

Figure 8. Image looking west at Kim Jong Un’s observation point.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

In another image, a tall hill is visible to the northeast of Kim’s position.

Figure 9. Image looking northeast at Kim Jong Un’s observation point.

(Photo: KCTV)
(Photo: KCTV)

Note: In the satellite imagery, the hill is outside the scope of the area pictured but is northeast of this viewing area.

Figure 10. Satellite imagery of Kim Jong Un’s observation point.
Note: The numbers indicate the direction in which the photographs were taken.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

A Post-Test Examination

Additional photographs show Kim examining the nose cone, which has a crude template on top that indicates the amount of ablation incurred during the test.[2]

Figure 11. Kim Jong Un inspecting the nose cone.

(Photo: Rodong Sinmun)
(Photo: Rodong Sinmun)

Whether the reentry vehicle test was successful remains unclear although the report and accompanying photographs are, not surprisingly, designed to show that it was and leave the impression that North Korea possesses a viable ICBM reentry vehicle.



—————

[1] Although the current official name for the factory is unknown it has been variously identified in South Korean and foreign media reports as the Chamjin Munitions Factory, Chamjil Missile Factory, Chamjin Guided Missile Plant and the Taesung Machine Factory.

[2] As the reentry vehicle reenters the Earth’s atmosphere, it heats up due to friction and begins to “ablate” or burn off material from the nose cone, exchanging mass for heat loss.


Found in section: Military Affairs

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.nationalinterest.org/blo...i-ship-missiles-islands-the-south-china-15577

The Buzz

Is China Deploying Anti-Ship Missiles on Islands in the South China Sea?

Harry J. Kazianis
March 23, 2016
Comments 123

Did China just deploy dangerous anti-ship missiles [4] to Woody Island in the South China Sea?

Several outlets are speculating that Beijing might have taken what is very likely the next logical step in its dangerous game of military brinksmanship in this increasingly tension-filled body of water.

The reports, coming from mostly Asian-media sources [5] as well as speculation on the Alert 5 website [6], suggest that China may have deployed anti-ship missiles, specifically the YJ-62 system, on Woody Island in the Parcels Island chain.

The Alert 5 caption above pictures supposedly taken of the missiles on the islands state: “Imagery analysis of a test firing of YJ-62 subsonic anti-ship cruise missile suggests the testing took place on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago in South China Sea.” Photos below the missile firing show some evidence to possibly support this conclusion. So far, no major media outlets have picked up or confirmed the story--so far. The National Interest has been unable to independently confirm the report.

And how did I hear about all this? When Vietnamese media asked me to comment on it [7]. Yikes.

The YJ-62, while certainly not China’s best missile platform, certainly packs a punch. According to the global security website [4]:

“Each missile carries a 300 kg armor-piercing high-explosive warhead. The C602 [another designation for the YJ-62] wings can be folded back, and the location of the fixed scoop inlet is on the ventral side of the missile, mounted slightly forward of the cruciform tail fins. It uses a turbojet engine, and can reach a maximum range of 280 km and a minimum range of 40-60 kilometers. The YJ-62 has high subsonic speed, with a maximum flight speed of about Mach 0.6-0.8.”

To be clear, we won’t know for certain that such missiles have been placed in the South China Sea unless we have confirmation from Beijing, Washington or some amazing satellite photos in the next few days. But know this: China will in due time, if it has not already done so, place anti-ship missiles on its fake islands in the South China Sea--and much more. It’s only a question of when.

The reasons for such a move are quite obvious over the short, medium and long-term. First, the short term rationale (and as I explained to Vietnamese media): China could be reacting to recent moves by the United States and the Philippines. It is very possible the leaking of these photos could be a direct response to the new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. This was concluded last Friday between Washington and Manila, allowing the U.S. military to use sections of of five different military bases. These include Antonio Bautista Air Base, Basa Air Base, Fort Magsaysay, Lumbia Air Base and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. This possible missile deployment could be a reaction to this.

Moving to the medium-term, China has good reasons to want anti-ship weapons in the South China Sea. Beijing’s mighty navy is still no match for the United States in a direct, one-on-one engagement. Anti-ship weapons based on land, even older ones like the YJ-62, give Beijing more weapons platforms to engage American and allied ship asymmetrically—and increase that all important anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) envelope even deeper into the South China Sea. Combining these missiles with longer-range ballistic anti-ship weapons based in China proper creates the conditions for saturation strikes that could eventually turn the South China Sea into a no-go zone for U.S. naval vessels.

And for the long-term, I would argue these weapons--again, if really deployed and not some meer internet speculation—appear to be part of a long-term strategy to develop the offensive military capabilities of China in the South China Sea, enforce its claims to its so-called “nine-dash-line,” and ensure that it is the dominate power in this important body of water—all the while weakening American hegemony throughout the region. Indeed, I believe China will act much more aggressively in the months and years to come thanks to Beijing's new island bases in the South China Sea. We will likely see the basing of PLAN naval vessels in new ports China has under construction, deploying even more advanced and long-range ballistic and cruise missiles in the area beyond the possible YJ-62 deployment and even using the islands to base fishing fleets and Chinese coast guard vessels in the area--all in an effort to dominate the South China Sea militarily and enforce its sovereignty claims.

So while China may or may not have deployed such offensive missiles into “Asia’s Cauldron [8]”—the chances are very high they will. The question is: what will Washington and its allies do when it does?

Harry Kazianis (@grecianformula [9]) is a non-resident Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Center for the National Interest [10], a non-resident Senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute [11] as well as a fellow for National Security affairs at the Potomac Foundation [12]. He is the former Executive Editor of the National Interest and former Editor-In-Chief of The Diplomat [13]. The views expressed are his own.

Image [14]: Alert 5.

Tags
Chinese military [15]South China Sea [16]defense [17]Security [18]Technology [19]Politics [20]
Topics
Security [21]
Regions
Asia [22] [3]

Links:
[1] http://www.nationalinterest.org/blo...i-ship-missiles-islands-the-south-china-15577
[2] http://www.nationalinterest.org/profile/harry-j-kazianis
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/c-602.htm
[5] http://news.ifeng.com/a/20160322/48069301_0.shtml
[6] http://alert5.com/2016/03/21/did-china-tested-yj-62-anti-ship-missile-in-south-china-sea/
[7] http://thanhnien.vn/the-gioi/trung-quoc-bi-nghi-dua-ten-lua-chong-ham-den-phu-lam-683990.html
[8] http://www.amazon.com/Asias-Cauldron-South-Stable-Pacific-ebook/dp/B00G8ELTCK
[9] https://twitter.com/grecianformula
[10] http://cftni.org/
[11] http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cpi/
[12] http://www.thepotomacfoundation.org/
[13] http://thediplomat.com/
[14] http://alert5.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/d7f0c0dcgw1f24a24ytrcj21kw174hdt1.jpg
[15] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/chinese-military
[16] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/south-china-sea
[17] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/defense
[18] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/security
[19] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/technology
[20] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/politics
[21] http://www.nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[22] http://www.nationalinterest.org/region/asia

 

[Housecarl]

We'll see how this works out.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0WP2EA

World | Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:55pm EDT
Related: World, United Nations, Yemen

Yemen fighting to halt April 10, peace talks start April 18: U.N.

UNITED NATIONS | By Michelle Nichols

The warring parties in Yemen have agreed to a cessation of hostilities starting at midnight on April 10 and peace talks in Kuwait beginning April 18, United Nations special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said on Wednesday.

There have already been several failed attempts to defuse the conflict in Yemen, which has drawn in regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran and triggered a humanitarian crisis in the Arab world's poorest country.

"This is really our last chance," Ould Cheikh Ahmed told reporters in New York. "The war in Yemen must be brought to an end."

A Saudi-led coalition began a military campaign in Yemen a year ago with the aim of preventing Iran-allied Houthi rebels and forces loyal to Yemen's ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh from taking control of the country.

Ould Cheikh Ahmed said Saudi Arabia is "fully committed to make sure that the next talks take place and particularly supports us with regard to the cessation of hostilities."

The United Nations says more than 6,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed since the start of the Saudi-led military intervention whose ultimate aim is to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an affiliate of the global Sunni Muslim militant organization, has also expanded its foothold in the country as the government focuses on its battle with the Houthi rebels.


(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Chris Reese and James Dalgleish)

 

[Housecarl]

Great Game 2.0.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nepal-trade-idUSKCN0WP2BU

World | Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:19pm EDT
Related: World, China

Nepal looks to lessen dependence on India with China port deal

KATHMANDU | By Gopal Sharma


China will allow landlocked Nepal to use its ports for trading goods with third countries, a senior official in Kathmandu said on Wednesday, potentially ending India's decades-long monopoly over the impoverished country's trading routes.

A prolonged blockade of its border crossings with India last year by protesters demanding changes to a new constitution left Nepal desperately short of fuel and goods, throwing into sharp relief its dependence on routes into its southern neighbour.

Nepal's prime minister K. P. Oli signed an agreement with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang during a visit to Beijing this week to give Nepalese traders access to land routes and ports in China, commerce ministry official Rabi Shankar Sainju said.

"This is a historic agreement for Nepal," Sainju told Reuters. "This cannot be an alternative to the Indian port but it is an additional route to boost our trade."

The routes and ports that Nepal, sandwiched between China and India, can use would be decided by officials from Kathmandu and Beijing soon, he said.

China is vying to increase its influence in Nepal, challenging India's long-held position as the dominant outside power.

Beijing this week also agreed to consider building a railway into Nepal, supply petroleum products and to start a feasibility study for a free trade agreement.

Nepal, still trying to recover from two devastating earthquakes last year, adopted its first post-monarchy constitution in September hoping this would usher in peace and stability after years of conflict.

But protesters blocked trucks coming in from India, leading to acute shortages. Nepal blamed New Delhi for siding with the protesters, a charge India denied.

Nepal currently uses the eastern Indian port at Kolkata for trade but officials said this is has become congested. India has offered to allow Nepal use of a second port.

The Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry said Nepal lacked the roads and railways to reach Chinese ports located more than 3,000 kilometers (1,875 miles) from its border.

"Theoretically it is a good thing. But we have to do a lot of work before we can actually use the Chinese route," senior official Bhawani Rana said.


(Editing by Tommy Wilkes and Richard Balmforth)

 

[Housecarl]

Considering Grandpa Kim tried to do this in 1968, never mind all of the "infiltrators" they've since dropped off via submarine, and this isn't the first time they've threatened to do it, this manner of threat can't be simply blown off....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...to-kill-South-Korean-president/8551458744858/

North Korea threatens to kill South Korean president

The entire North Korean military and people are ready to “retaliate” against the South Korean leader, Pyongyang said.

By Elizabeth Shim | March 23, 2016 at 11:41 AM

SEOUL, March 23 (UPI) -- North Korea released a video showing a simulation of South Korea's presidential residence, Blue House, exploding.

The provocative video was part of a larger message from Pyongyang's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, South Korean news network YTN reported.

The North Korean government reportedly stated it is prepared to launch a scorched earth attack on the residence of South Korean President Park Geun-hye, using its large-caliber multiple rocket launchers.

The entire North Korean military and people are ready to "retaliate" against the South Korean leader, Pyongyang said.

"From this vantage point the Korean People's Army, the army of farmers and laborers, Red Youth Guards, and every movement of the people will resolutely move toward the elimination of Park Geun-hye's traitor faction," North Korea stated, according to Pyongyang's news agency KCNA.

The war of retaliation could start either inside the Blue House or nearby, North Korea said.

Pyongyang also criticized the "reckless military provocation" of the United States and South Korea, referring to the ongoing joint military exercise Foal Eagle, South Korean newspaper Asia Business reported.

North Korea had previously condemned the Seoul training exercise aimed at precision strikes against key North Korean military facilities.

On Monday Seoul said the purpose of the "large-scale offense drill" was to "suppress additional North Korea provocations and to establish solid military readiness."

During the exercise, fighter jets were equipped with air-to-ground and air-to-air weapons, and drills included attacks on simulated North Korea combat planes, elimination of surface-to-air missiles, and scenarios where joint direct attack munitions would guide bombs to key North Korea military facilities.

 

[Housecarl]

This just keeps getting worse.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-unemployment-idUSKCN0WP2Z8

World | Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:58pm EDT
Related: World, Brazil

Pressure on Brazil's Rousseff may rise as jobless lose benefits

BRASILIA | By Silvio Cascione


More than 2 million Brazilians are set to lose unemployment benefits by June, data obtained by Reuters show, threatening to erode support for embattled President Dilma Rousseff among her core working class supporters when she needs them most.

The expiration of benefits could fuel frustration and feed a growing wave of protests against Brazil's left-leaning government just as some wavering Congressmen throw their weight behind impeachment proceedings against Rousseff that began last week.

More than 1 million Brazilians have participated in street demonstrations this month. Among the reasons for discontent is a corruption scandal at state oil company Petrobras that has curbed investment in Latin America's largest economy amid recession.

Economists expect the downturn, the worst in a generation, to linger through the rest of the year, driving the unemployment rate to more than 10 percent from the current 9 percent.. The number of jobless people losing unemployment benefits may become a more important source of discontent.

Data provided by the Labor Ministry showed an average of 492,000 benefits a month running out between February and June, stripping many families of a crucial source of income.

The severity of the downturn means the jobless are struggling for months without finding work. About a third of unemployed Brazilians have been without a job for more than six months - the highest rate in 10 years, according to official data.

"There is a vicious cycle in which political paralysis feeds the economic downturn that reinforces the political crisis," said Rafael Cortez, analyst at consultancy firm Tendencias. "They are running against time, as unemployment data show. The sooner the impeachment vote happens, the higher the chances for the government are."


"GREED OF POLITICIANS"

Impeachment proceedings against Rousseff in Congress' lower house focus on allegations she manipulated government budget accounts - making them look better than they were - to benefit her reelection in 2014. The lower house is expected to vote by mid-April on whether to send her for trial in the Senate.

If approved, Rousseff could face trial in the Senate as soon as May and would be suspended from office while the case is being heard.

Like many who are unemployed, Fabio Lorusso's patience is wearing thin. The 30-year-old public relations professional was fired in July and has lived with his parents since his benefits ran out in December. He blames the Petrobras scandal, in which prosecutors have uncovered billions of reais in political kickbacks to ruling party politicians, for deterring investment. "It is the greed of our politicians - the people who are robbing us - that is tainting our image abroad and giving us fewer opportunities," he said.

"There should be more protests," he said. "We won't keep our head down anymore."

In a nation of more than 200 million, an estimated 9 million are unemployed. Nearly 2.5 million Brazilians are living on unemployment insurance, which lasts five months. By comparison, an average of 3 million people were living on benefits in 2014, according to Reuters calculations based on Labor Ministry data.

But the current wave of job losses is expected to take years to reverse, in part because, unlike in previous downturns, companies have taken on more debt that will make it more difficult to return to growth.

According to a Reuters poll, economists say they believe that the nation’s economy will not return to its pre-crisis size and employment level until 2019.

Long lines of jobless people - applying for work or for unemployment insurance - have formed in cities across Brazil in recent months.

In Rio de Janeiro, Globo TV found people illegally selling their place in queues. Diomarcos Prado, a 40-year-old former supervisor at a home appliance manufacturer in the southern city of Curitiba, had to wait 40 days to get his unemployment benefits.

When they expired in January, his wife became the sole provider for the couple and their twin children. Prado has spent more than six months looking for a new job without success.

"It is like talking to a brick wall," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. "I applied for a supervisor job. Then 350 other people did the same - people that used to earn much higher salaries. Managers are competing against supervisors and analysts."


GOVERNMENT "VERY WORRIED" More than 1.5 million jobs already have been lost since the downturn began in early 2014, and companies continue to dismiss a net 100,000 workers a month.

Labor minister Miguel Rossetto told Reuters in an interview that the government is "very worried" and expects a few more months of job losses before a recovery in the second semester. Already struggling to cope with a fiscal deficit that topped 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year, the government has no way to extend the benefits, which vary between 880 reais and 1,542 reais ($245-$430) per month. Rousseff reduced the scope of unemployment insurance last year to help curb government spending. That decision was partly responsible for the plunge in her approval ratings. "The welfare systems, such as unemployment insurance, continue to operate, but eventually it will be exhausted," said Miguel Foguel, a labor market expert at economic think tank IPEA, in Rio de Janeiro.

He expects poverty and inequality measures to rise after many years of improvement in the 2000s that made Brazil a model. "If the economy does not recover in the first half of the year, maybe in the second half, we could be in a very complicated situation as families use up their savings." ($1 = 3.5811 Brazilian reais)


(Additional reporting by Alonso Soto, Lisandra Paraguassu and Dan Flynn; Editing by Lisa Girion)

 

[Housecarl]

More gasoline.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...f2dcc8-f08d-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html

Seized spreadsheets list payments to top Brazil politicians

By Jenny Barchfield | AP March 23 at 7:03 PM

RIO DE JANEIRO — In another stunning turn in the snowballing corruption investigation that is shaking Brazil, top newspapers on Wednesday released scans of dozens of spreadsheets seized by police listing what appeared to be payments by one of the country’s biggest companies to about 200 politicians, including code names and monetary values.

The newspapers O Estado de S. Paulo, O Globo and Folha de S. Paulo said the documents were discovered during the search last month of the Rio de Janeiro home of an executive at the Odebrecht construction giant — one of the companies embroiled in the “Car Wash” probe of an alleged kickback scheme at the state-run Petrobras oil company.

The papers cautioned that it was not immediately clear whether the spreadsheets were tracking legitimate campaign donations or illicit payouts. But the sheer scope of the document dump, which lists Cabinet ministers, legislators, governors and mayors from around 18 parties, was sure to raise a slew of questions and further ratchet up the pressure on Brazil’s much disdained political class.

The documents were removed from the home of Benedicto Barbosa da Silva Junior, president of Odebrecht Infrastructure, during a February police search and have been catalogued as evidence in the investigation headed by federal Judge Sergio Moro in the southern city of Curitiba.

Moro’s office was closed Wednesday due to the Easter holiday and not able to answer any questions about the documents.

O Estado de S. Paulo published scans of more than 60 pieces of evidence on its website. The spreadsheets, some of which include hand-written notes and additions, appear to be linked to payments made during elections in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

G1, the internet portal of the Globo television network, put the total listed in the spreadsheets at more than 55 million Brazilian reais, about $15 million.

Among the politicians on the spreadsheets were Education Minister Aloizio Mercadante, a member of President Dilma Rousseff’s inner circle; opposition Sen. Aecio Neves, who narrowly lost to Rousseff in the 2014 presidential runoff; and the speaker of the lower house, Eduardo Cunha — a Rousseff foe who brought impeachment proceedings against the president over allegations of fiscal mismanagement by her administration.

Cunha, who has been indicted on bribery charges, denied he received any illicit campaign contributions sand he hot not received any contributions “directly” from Odebrecht, according to G1. Other politicians listed on the spreadsheets also denied receiving illicit payouts.

The lists also include Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes, who is the driving force behind the Olympic Games in the city Aug. 5-21.

The document dump came a day after police carried out a wave of searches and detentions linked to Odebrecht. Prosecutors said that corruption was so deeply entrenched in the company, one of Brazil’s biggest, that the firm had a whole department dedicated to making illicit payments.

In a statement hours after Tuesday’s raids, the company issued a statement saying it had decided to collaborate with the investigation.

“We hope that our explanations contribute significantly to the institutions of law in Brazil and help construct a better Brazil,” the statement said.

The document drop also came on the heels of a legal victory for embattled former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Late Tuesday, Supreme Court Justice Teori Zavascki said Moro erred in releasing tapped phone calls of Silva and at least temporarily removed the judge from any investigation of the former president.

The decision means Moro no longer has the power to order Silva’s provisional detention over suspicions of money-laundering and influence peddling in connection with the Petrobras scheme. Silva denies all wrongdoing.

However, Zavascki stopped short of allowing Silva to become Rousseff’s chief of staff, which has been blocked by other judges. The Cabinet post would make it harder to investigate Silva for possible corruption because only Brazil’s Supreme Court can authorize investigation, charges and detention for top government officials.

Rumors that Silva would be given a Cabinet-level posting surfaced after Moro ordered him taken in for questioning in the corruption probe earlier this month. He was named Rousseff’s chief of staff last week, leading critics to contend that it was a bid to help shield the former leader from his legal woes.

At a rally Wednesday in Sao Paulo with labor unions, Silva suggested Rousseff had offered him a Cabinet post in August but said he was reticent to accept. “I have the notion that a former president and a president sharing space is not easy,” he told the rally.

In another development in the Petrobras investigation, federal police presented preliminary indictments against eight more people, including a political marketing guru who helped Rousseff win elections in 2010 and 2014.

Campaign strategist Joao Santana and his wife were indicted on charges including money laundering and taking part in a criminal organization. The public prosecutors’ office must now decide whether to take up the charges.

___

Associated Press writers Stan Lehman and Mauricio Savarese in Sao Paulo contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nort...-engine-test-boosts-capability-report-1290239

North Korea Claims Successful Rocket Engine Test Boosts Capability: Report

World | Reuters | Updated: March 24, 2016 05:29 IST

Seoul: North Korea, supervised by leader Kim Jong Un, successfully tested a solid-fuel rocket engine that increased power of the reclusive state's ballistic rockets, North Korea's state news agency reported today.

The claim, if confirmed, could mean the North was continuing to work on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programme at a rapid pace, in defiance of UN sanctions that ban such activities.

"(Kim) noted with great pleasure that the successful test ... helped boost the power of ballistic rockets capable of mercilessly striking hostile forces," KCNA news agency said.

The North said last week it had conducted a successful simulated test of atmospheric re-entry of a ballistic missile and the country would soon test ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.Pyongyang has previously launched long-range rockets that used liquid fuel but it was seen to lack the capability to build solid-fuel long-range or intercontinental missiles.

Solid-fuel rockets have advantages in military use, although liquid fuel rockets are considered more sophisticated as their thrust can be controlled in flight.

The North has deployed short and medium-range missiles and test fired them, but never flight-tested the KN-08 ICBM it is believed to be developing.

The KN-08, which has been put on display at military parades and in official news media appears to have a three-stage design that is likely intended to use solid fuel, according to experts.

Despite its boasts to be making progress, many experts believe the North is a decade or more away from building an ICBM capable of threatening the United States.

In recent weeks, the isolated state has stepped up bellicose rhetoric, threatening pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Washington and Seoul.

Last week, the North fired two medium-range ballistic missiles into the sea in defiance of tough new UN and US sanctions slapped on the country following nuclear and rocket tests earlier this year.

It fired short-range rockets into the sea on Monday.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://news.vice.com/article/dod-starts-war-over-personal-email-accounts

Defense & Security

The Pentagon Goes to War Against Personal Email Accounts

By Ryan Faith
March 23, 2016 | 9:55 am

On Thursday evening last week, the Pentagon killed email.

Or rather, the US Defense Information Systems Agency, at the request of the US Cyber Command, blocked access to commercial, web-based email servers — like Google's Gmail, Yahoo, and so on — on its unclassified internet network, for all of its personnel in what it calls the "National Capital Region," or the area in and around Washington. This may seem like a run-of-the-mill issue; after all, large corporations and bureaucracies block access to some electronic function or the other all the time, mostly for maintenance reasons.

But the Pentagon outage lasted 48 hours, barring access to web-based email services on the Non-Classified Internet Protocol Router, known as NIPR or NIPRnet. This was in response to widespread phishing attacks, according to Jeffrey Capenos, a Defense Information Systems Agency spokesperson.

In other words: If you worked for the US Department of Defense, you would not have had access to any web-based email communications for two days. And that's a big problem for a giant bureaucracy that wants to attract more young people to fight the cyberwars it sees in the United States' future.

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and the Department of Defense as a whole are trying to grapple with a resurgent Russia, rising China, and radical extremists throughout the Middle East and Asia. Those efforts include a vast cyber-warfare component.

Major initiatives already underway include outreach to tech companies and Silicon Valley as a whole, and a host of new personnel and hiring reforms. The decision to bar access to personal web-based email accounts is going hurt these efforts, as it may help ensure that no tech-literate millennial ever wants to work for the Department of Defense, which relies on an increasingly old workforce that hit drinking age when the Cold War (the real one, not today's rehash) was still happening

The DoD is doing the exact opposite of what, for example, Hillary Clinton did during her tenure as Secretary of State, when she avoided using official email and relied instead on a personal account hosted on a private server. At the Pentagon, there has already been some discussion about making the ban on web-based personal email permanent.

But the problem isn't just the security of servers. It's also the people using them and possibly doing stupid things, like clicking on bad links or opening sketchy attachments, is already a huge source of grief for Pentagon computers. Which gets to the core problem of most cybersecurity: an old computer science term, "PEBCAK" (meaning Problem Exists Between Chair And Keyboard).

Related: Pentagon Responds to Russian Hacker Breach by 'Showing a Little Leg'

Some of the most successful "cyberattacks" were really more successful con jobs than anything else, working on hacking the user, rather than the computer. Thus, a huge portion of cybersecurity is basically trying to prevent dumb users from doing dumb things.

The Pentagon has already admitted to security breaches in the past, possibly from PEBCAK-related issues on its non-classified Internet, so this isn't a new kind of problem, or one likely to go away soon. Banning access to web-based email may help solve that problem, but also buy the Pentagon another one. People in general, and especially the more tech-savvy it needs to attract, feel an increasing need to be constantly connected. But the more connected people and computers are to one another, the greater chance that information will leak or be otherwise compromised. (Couldn't employees with smartphones, i.e. pretty much everybody, just use them to do their emailing? In theory, yes. But just try to get a cell phone signal inside the Pentagon.)

In much of the developed world, but especially the US, debates over privacy, freedom, and security are in full swing. And the Pentagon is no different. There are now several generations of workers who fully expect to have open personal communication channels while at work, in exchange for which they'll keep a line of work-related communication open around the clock. How that will play out with the Pentagon's legitimate security precautions is unclear, but it may end up causing the Department of Defense an entirely new kind of headache.

Follow Ryan Faith on Twitter: @Operation_Ryan

 

[Housecarl]

Seven Iranians indicted for hacking financial institutions & dam in NYS
Started by mzkitty‎, Today 09:05 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...hacking-financial-institutions-amp-dam-in-NYS


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/2...al-iranians-in-2013-hacking-new-york-dam.html

CRIME

Justice Department charges several Iranians in 2013 hacking of New York dam

By Matthew Dean · Published March 24, 2016 · FoxNews.com
Comments 84

The Department of Justice announced charges Thursday against seven people with ties to the Iranian government for computer hacking-related crimes in connection with the 2013 hacking of a New York dam.

One of the seven, Hamid Firoozi, also faces a charge of unauthorized access to a protected computer at the Bowman Avenue Dam in Rye Brook, N.Y.

The Department of Homeland Security and FBI have been investigating the incident which targeted the dam’s command and control system. Attorney General Loretta Lynch and U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Preet Bharara are expected to speak about the charges Thursday morning at the Department of Justice in Washington, D.C.

In December, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials at the Department of Homeland Security believe that hackers infiltrated the Bowman Avenue Dam through a cellular modem that enabled them to access the control system.

The breach raised fears of the vulnerabilities of the United States' infrastructure to foreign hackers. It also came at a time that the Iranians were on the offensive in attacking U.S. banks.

It was believed at the time that the hackers never took control of the dam, but were able to probe the system, the report said.

In this case, the hackers were believed to have gained access to the dam through a cellular modem, the paper reported, citing an unclassified Homeland Security summary of the case that did not specifically name the dam. Two unnamed sources told the paper that the summary was referring to the relatively small, 20-foot-tall, concrete dam about 5 miles from Long Island sound. The dam is used for flood control in the area.

Fox News first reported the Iranian connection on March 10. The State Department declined to comment on the incident that day, instead deferring to the Justice Department.

Spokesman Mark Toner did add that the U.S. government takes seriously all malicious activity in cyberspace and continues to ensure the safety of U.S. interests when it comes to cyberattacks.

The law enforcement source told Fox News on Wednesday that the charges will amount to a “naming and shaming” of the alleged hackers since it is highly doubtful the Iranian government will agree to an extradition.

The charges parallel the 2014 indictment unsealed in the Western District of Pennsylvania that outed five Chinese military officers for their alleged hacking of U.S. interests, according to the source.


Matthew Dean is Fox News Channel's Department of Justice & Federal Law Enforcement producer. Follow him on Twitter @MattFirewall.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php...4:the-north-korean-strategic-issue&Itemid=645

March 24, 2016

The North Korean strategic issue

Giancarlo Elia Valori


Currently North Korea has turned from a regional threat into an unpredictable global strategic player. This implies that, in the future, we will need to reasonably deal with a Korean power which, however, is anything but irrational in its global choices.

Portraying Kim Jong Un’s Korea as a Shangri-La led by an unreliable man is not the truth and does not facilitate the solution of the Korean problem, both in North and South Korea.The fissile material now held by North Korea can be used to build six to thirty nuclear weapons, but what is the North Korean strategy in the use of this atomic arsenal, which is also growing steadily at a yearly pace of 18%, according to the latest data? According to experts, four reasons are used by North Korea to maintain and manage an autonomous nuclear threat which, from a regional area, has a strike range capable of hitting the United States and hence Europe.

The first one is the use of nuclear weapons by North Korea with a view to obtaining international concessions at diplomatic or more directly political levels. What concessions? Certainly the first would be an internationally recognized geopolitical status, perhaps in a stable correlation with South Korea. A status which would enable North Korea to expand its political and economic area in the whole South-East Asia, possibly in connection with the old regional alliances: maybe even the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), dissolved in 1977, the old " zoo of paper tigers ", as a British diplomat defined it - a zoo which, however, might be rebuilt around the two Koreas.

Currently a network of credible and multilateral alliances must be recreated so as to shut in and stabilize the North Korean strategic system, thus protecting South Korea and ensuring to North Korea the stability of its regime. Or a good solution could also be the new alliance recently proposed by China for Central Asia, with Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and Tajikistan: a grouping created to counteract the loss of Russian rayonnement in the region, which could be extended to the coasts of North and South Korea so as to incorporate them within a context of reasonable and, above all, credible checks and balances.

Through Xi Jinping, China has warned the Asian regional powers against building new military alliances, proposed over the last few years especially by the United States. Nevertheless China, with its recent Conference on Interaction and Conference Building Measures in Asia (CICA), has a primary interest in neutralizing and strategically surrounding the offers of military alliance that US President Obama has proposed to Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The tensions that China is facing in Eastern Asian seas and in the regional ones of Vietnam and Myanmar are such as to force it to create external (and independent) alliances compared to the old Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which plays a specifically terrestrial role.

North Korea could even adhere to the SCO and hence China would certainly control, along with the Russian Federation, the North Korean missile and nuclear potential; or it could adhere to a new tripartite alliance, with Russia and China, where the North Korean geopolitics should dissolve in a wider and well-controlled context.

With a view to preventing the North Korean escalation from going on, it is important to include North Korea in a strategic framework capable of using its power projection and, in particular, securing the borders and stability of the North Korean regime.

Without these credible assurances, North Korea will have a vested interest in managing its role as international free rider, which maximizes the political effects of its nuclear tests and hence makes an agreement with it more difficult and expensive for the other international players.

It is a way to "raise the price" of its collaboration and to focus worldwide interest on its country.

Not to mention the border with South Korea.

For the North Korean leadership, the Korean Demilitarized Zone around the 38th parallel is a constant threat and the last, hateful, relic of the Cold War.

The armistice of July 27, 1953 froze a strategic factor which, today, has no longer international motivations.

The issue does no longer lie for the United States in covering up their presence in Japan and the Pacific. There is no longer need to stop the Soviet expansion into the Pacific on the edge of China.

Today everything has changed, and we must invent new political mechanisms to put an end to the Cold War phase in the Korean peninsula, which is no longer the Russian strategic "tooth" in the South China Sea, as was the case when the link between the USSR and Maoism became problematic.

Hence either an international committee is established for defining a definitive border between the two Koreas, or North Korea is continued to be granted the role of global strategic free rider - a role that North Korea can no longer play with increasing doses of military power and nuclear threat, otherwise it would no longer be credible.

This is certainly not the panacea for North Korea’s economy.

Hence, thanks to a global and innovative strategic vision, we must break the North Korean military spiral which, paradoxically, is directly proportional to its domestic economic crisis.

The Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC), established on the basis of the 1953 armistice, has now a mere role of communication between the two Koreas, so as to establish reliable relations between them.

Nevertheless, it is not certainly a body which can define a credible geopolitical project - this is not its purpose.

The second of the four aims of the North Korean nuclear build-up is to internationalize the crisis of the Korean peninsula (and of the region) so as to lead to the US or Chinese mediation.

Financial integration between (South) Korea and China - the free trade agreement between the two countries signed last year - is regarded as a threat by North Korea.

Actually North Korea is not entirely wrong: the above stated agreement envisages the creation in Shanghai of a stock market of securities directly traded in the two currencies, namely the won and the renminbi. It also envisages that the South Korean government may issue bonds and securities of its own sovereign debt directly in denominated in the Chinese currency - securities which can be later sold on the large Chinese financial market.

Therefore we can imagine a way to internationalize the North Korean sovereign debt on the Chinese or Russian markets, so as to stabilize the North Korean economy, thus making the Chinese and Russian strategic assurances stop the North Korean nuclear race.

A new Treaty between North Korea, South Korea - which is experiencing a period of financial deleveraging of foreign investors, or a capital flight which is also a form of economic war - the United States, the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and, inevitably, the now useless European Union.

This group of countries should also be joined by Japan and the Indian Federation.

This Committee should establish: a) the internationally recognized border between the two Koreas, thus explicitly putting an end to the alleged hegemony claimed by both countries over the entire Korean peninsula; b) a joint North and South Korean Committee for economic development; c) a military committee supervising the North Korean military nuclear development, with the possibility for Russia - as was the case with Iran - to manage part of the fissile material; d) an international agreement for managing the North Korean nuclear material, which would be reached in the region by Russia and China.

Obviously with the guarantee of the North Korean national sovereignty.

For international analysts, a third reason for creating and expanding the North Korean nuclear arsenal would be the response to possible military attacks threatening the existence of the North Korean Party and State.

This is still a commitment of the Conference we propose, which should explicitly deny any political and military thereat against the North Korean regime, by gradually accepting it into the mainstream of international alliances and organizations.

A normalization which is good for everyone: for the United States, which will save on the deployment of their forces in the Asian region; for China, which will rebuild a preferential relationship with North Korea; for Russia, which could have an interest in developing economic and strategic relations with North Korea .

For Russia, which sets great store by trade with South Korea, the security of the North-Asian system must be ensured by a wide network of multilateral partnerships in various sectors: energy security, nuclear energy, transport safety, food safety and, finally, a multilateral guarantee on information security.

This is the right basis to start.

Finally, the fourth reason analyzed by experts to justify the North Korean significant nuclear build up is to offset, with nuclear weapons, the inevitable structural and conventional weakness of North Korea in relation to the United States and South Korea, two powers which, at various levels, are far superior to North Korea in terms of updating and quantity of their conventional forces.

We could even imagine a series of confidence building measures, managed by the Conference we have proposed, designed to simultaneously reduce the North and South Korean military potential and, hence, reshape the US strategy throughout the Pacific region in relation to North Korea.

This can be done if there is the political will and the effective presence of Russia and China. It is worth trying.



Giancarlo Elia Valori

Advisory Board Co-chair Honoris Causa

Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York.

He currently chairs "La Centrale Finanziaria Generale Spa", he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group and Khashoggi Holding’s advisor.

In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d'Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: "A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title of "Honorable" of the Académie des Sciences de l'Institut de France

 

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Seoul stepping up security in response to North Korea threats

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs stated any North Korea military maneuvers would be met with punishment.

By Elizabeth Shim | March 24, 2016 at 11:34 AM

SEOUL, March 24 (UPI) -- South Korea is taking North Korea's provocative threats seriously as it moves forward with steps to strengthen security at government buildings and other facilities.

A day after North Korea threatened to turn the presidential Blue House into flames, Seoul's Ministry of Public Safety and Security and Joint Chiefs of Staff held separate emergency meetings Thursday.

The South Korean commanders stated that the military maintains "firm readiness" in the case of enemy provocations, and if North Korea undertakes a military attack they would be "resolutely punished" until they are made to feel "bitter regret," News 1 reported.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye had stated Thursday the country should be "well-prepared to respond to North Korea provocations" and directed the South's military to take relevant measures.

The Public Safety Ministry has ordered security to be stepped up at various government buildings across the country. More guards and equipment are to be deployed to prevent chemical, biological and radiological acts of terrorism, the ministry stated.

North Korea has heightened tensions on the peninsula in response to the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, and has slammed Seoul for engaging in a unilateral exercise that was aimed at precision strikes against key North Korean military facilities.

North Korea released a video Wednesday in retaliation, showing a simulation of South Korea's presidential Blue House bursting into an explosion.

Pyongyang threatened Park and said it is prepared to launch a scorched earth attack on Seoul.

The entire North Korean military and people are ready to "retaliate" against the South Korean leader, Pyongyang has said.

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Related UPI Stories
•Obama, China's Xi to meet on North Korea nuclear provocations
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•Former U.S. captive in North Korea to release memoir

 

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North Korea Boasts More Progress in Ballistic Missile Program

VOA News
March 24, 2016 4:47 AM

North Korea says it has successfully tested a solid-fuel rocket engine, which would be a major step in its effort to develop a long-range missile able to reach South Korea and the United States.

The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency says leader Kim Jong-un was on hand for the test, which he said "will strike great horror and terror into the hearts of the enemies."

Using solid-fuel reduces the amount of launch preparation time, increases the mobility of the missiles, and makes them far more reliable than liquid-fueled rockets.

Pyongyang has made similar claims before of progress in its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, including a successful simulation of an atmospheric re-entry of a ballistic missile. Multiple defense experts South Korea and abroad have expressed doubts that North Korea has developed a long-range ballistic missile, or a vehicle that can withstand the searing heat of re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere.

Thursday's claim by the North is the regime's latest response to the annual joint U.S.-South Korea military drill, and a new, stronger round of sanctions imposed by the United Nations over Pyongyang's recent nuclear and ballistic missile tests. North Korea has threatened to launch a massive military attack against Seoul, and launched several short and medium-range rockets and projectiles in the past week.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye on Thursday ordered a heightened security posture to cope with a potential North Korean provocation.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong told reporters Thursday that President Xi Jinping will discuss the North Korean nuclear situation with U.S. President Barack Obama on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit in Washington next week.

Beijing and Washington are two members of six-party talks aimed at curbing Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program, along with Japan, Russia and the two Koreas. The talks broke down in 2008.

 

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7 Afghan Police Killed in Insider Attack

Ayaz Gul
March 24, 2016 7:33 AM

ISLAMABAD — At least seven police officers were killed in a suspected insider attack in southern Kandahar province, authorities in southern Afghanistan said.

The early morning incident Thursday happened at a security outpost in the district of Arghandab.

Officials said the slain members of the Afghan Local police (ALP) were asleep when three of their colleagues sprayed them with bullets and fled the scene along with the victims' weapons and ammunition.

Taliban claim responsibility

A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack and said the attackers safely rejoined the insurgent ranks.

The ALP is a community policing system established about six years ago to protect villages and remote districts around Afghanistan because of the insufficient presence of army and police forces there.

Provincial authorities have launched an investigation into the deadly attack in Kandahar, which borders Pakistan.

Insider attacks have killed up to 30 Afghan security forces since the beginning of the year and the Taliban has claimed responsibility for most of them.

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US Denies Taliban Claim it Shot Down NATO Helicopter

 

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North Korea sparks fresh nuclear fears as satellite images reveal unknown objects at base

NEW satellite images of a secretive North Korean nuclear research centre reveal three unidentified objects which US officials believe could be the pariah state's latest attempt to make tritium, a key ingredient for hydrogen bombs.

By Tom Batchelor
PUBLISHED: 12:00, Thu, Mar 24, 2016 | UPDATED: 13:32, Thu, Mar 24, 2016

Photos taken from space by the US Institute for Science and International Security on March 15 appear to show three large rectangular 'sheds' not seen in previous pictures.

Pyongyang is believed to have restarted a small research reactor in a possible attempt to make tritium.

Tritium - a radioactive isotope of hydrogen - is an essential component of a boosted-fission nuclear weapon.

A boosted weapon contains a mixture of deuterium - a stable isotope of hydrogen - and tritium, with the gases being heated and compressed by the detonation of a plutonium or uranium device.

The prospect of fresh activity at North Korea's test site comes as it successfully tested a solid-fuel engine that boosted the power of its ballistic rockets, according to state media reports.

Pyongyang's claim indicates it is continuing to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a rapid pace, in defiance of United Nations sanctions and amid international condemnation from the US and China.


Satellite image showing three new unidentified objects at North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research CentreEPA

Satellite image showing unidentified objects at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Centre


The ground test of a high-power solid-fuel rocket engineGETTY

The ground test of a high-power solid-fuel rocket engine


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (seated) smiles during a solid-fuel rocket engine testREUTERS

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un smiles during a solid-fuel rocket engine test


The isolated state has in recent weeks stepped up hostile rhetoric, threatening pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Washington and Seoul, as well as making claims to have advanced its weapons technology.

Despot Kim Jong-un's belligerent remarks prompted South Korea's president to order the military to be ready to respond to the North's "reckless provocation".

The North said last week it had conducted a successful simulated test of atmospheric re-entry of a ballistic missile, and would soon test ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

On Wednesday, the North repeated the threat to attack the South's presidential office, saying its large-calibre multiple rocket launch systems are on alert to strike the Blue House.

Solid fuel rockets are seen as crucial to the North's aims of developing a rocket that is capable of firing a nuclear warhead at long-range targets

Pyongyang has previously launched long-range rockets that used liquid fuel but it was seen to lack the capability to build solid-fuel long-range or intercontinental missiles.

Solid-fuel rockets have advantages in military use, although liquid fuel rockets are considered more sophisticated as their thrust can be controlled in flight.

The North has deployed short and medium-range missiles and test fired them, but never flight-tested the KN-08 ICBM it is believed to be developing.

Despite its boasts to be making progress, many experts believe the North is a decade or more away from building an ICBM capable of threatening the United States.

Its nuclear test site has remained active, undergoing maintenance on existing tunnels as well as clean-up following the January test, according to 38 North, a project of the U.S. Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.



Related articles
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[Housecarl]

Brussels Suicide Bombers Planted Hidden Camera At Home Of Top Belgium Nuclear Official
Started by alchemike‎, Today 09:26 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...amera-At-Home-Of-Top-Belgium-Nuclear-Official
___

The Belgians have lowered their alert level by one notch it is being reported.....
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Politics | Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:25pm EDT
Related: World, Election 2016, Politics

U.S. frustration simmers over Belgium's struggle with militant threat

WASHINGTON | By Mark Hosenball

Shortly after last November’s attacks on Paris by a Brussels-based Islamic State cell, a top U.S. counter-terrorism official traveling in Europe wanted to visit Brussels to learn more about the investigation.

When the official tried to arrange meetings, however, his Belgian counterparts were not welcoming, according to U.S. officials familiar with the events. The Belgians indicated it was a bad time to speak to foreign officials as they were too busy with the investigation, said the officials, who asked not to be identified.

Belgian officials declined to comment on the incident.

The brush-off was one small sign of mounting U.S. frustration over Brussels’ handling of its worsening Islamic militant threat.

Concern that the small European nation's security and intelligence officials are overwhelmed -- and that its coordination with allies falls short -- have again come to the fore following the Islamic State-claimed attacks on Tuesday that killed at least 31 people.

Several U.S. officials say that security cooperation has been hampered by patchy intelligence–sharing by Brussels and wide differences in the willingness of different agencies to work with foreign countries, even close allies.

One U.S. government source said that when American investigators try to contact Belgian agencies for information, they often struggle to find which agency or part of an agency might have relevant information.

Belgium has ordered a sharp increase in security budgets following the Paris attacks, despite being under steady pressure to limit its debt levels under euro zone rules. The government has promised to recruit around 2,500 more federal police, who pursue major crimes, to make up for a shortfall of close to a fifth of the full-strength force of 12,500.

It also says it thwarted a major attack in January 2015, and is eager to cooperate with European and U.S. counterparts.

"These attacks show that more coordination with the United States is clearly desirable," Guy Rapaille, the president of the committee that provides oversight of Belgium’s security and intelligence services, told Belgium’s state broadcaster RTBF.

“But you have to remember that big powers guard their intelligence very closely."

U.S. officials acknowledge the recent Belgian efforts to step up funding and recruitment.

Yet they say Belgian security services are outmatched by the threat in a country that, per capita, has supplied the highest number of foreign fighters to Syria of any European nation.

"They're way behind the ball and they're paying a terrible price," Rep. Adam Schiff, ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told Reuters.

Asked on Wednesday whether Belgium was too complacent over the threat posed by Islamic militancy, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said:

"I want to stay clear of saying that Belgium was somehow caught by surprise or not aware. You know, we collaborate, we work with Belgium closely."

Some U.S. counter-terrorism officials say much of the gap between Washington and Belgium -- and some other European countries -- is cultural. Europeans' deeper commitment to personal privacy sometimes prevents or delays sharing of information such as travel data -- that is taken for granted in the United States.

After the September 11, 2001 attacks, the U.S. government radically reshaped its counter-terrorism agencies. It broke down walls between law enforcement and intelligence authorities, and created new coordinating institutions such as the Director of National Intelligence and National Counterterrorism Center.

Belgium, by contrast, is a patchwork country divided between French and Dutch speakers and with multiple levels of government.

Belgian security chiefs have repeatedly complained that they cannot handle up to 900 home-grown Islamist militants, among the highest per-capita rates in Europe. Belgium does not divulge the exact number of personnel in its security services and military intelligence, but security experts say they appear under-resourced compared to European counterparts.

"Add to that the problem of two languages (French and Flemish), lack of Arabic speakers, and weak coordination between national and local government, you have a huge discrepancy between threat and response," said former CIA official and White House advisor Bruce Riedel, now at the Brookings Institution.


(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom and Jonathan Landay in Washington, Robin Emmott and Alastair Macdonald in Brussels; Writing by Warren Strobel; editing by Don Durfee and Stuart Grudgings)

 

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ISIS Terror
Mar 24 2016, 11:37 am ET

Iraqi Forces Launch 'Operation Conquest' to Retake Mosul from ISIS

by Sarah Burke and Henry Austin

Video

BAGHDAD — Iraqi forces have begun the first phase of an operation to retake the northern city of Mosul from ISIS, military commanders and a senior security official said Thursday.

"This is the first phase of the operation called Al-Fatah [Conquest] to liberate Mosul," the senior security official told NBC News.

The Iraqi military's media arm announced the launch of Operation Conquest in a short statement reported by state TV.

Iraqi troops supported by U.S.-led coalition warplanes had forced ISIS back from four villages in an area 22 miles south west of Mosul, according to the security official.

"ISIS militants use these areas to launch mortars and Katyusha rockets on the base where Iraqi troops are stationed," the official said.

"Iraqi forces will pause their advance for few days in order to strengthen their positions in these liberated areas."

Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair at the Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., cast doubt on the Iraqis' ability to retake the city.

"They don't have the capability," he told NBC News, adding: "This is an Iraqi government that is effectively bankrupt because of declining oil revenues and has deep internal political divisions.

"Unless ISIS virtually collapses, they are not going anywhere in a hurry."

Mosul was home to more than 1 million Iraqis at when the militants overran the city in June 2014, making it the largest city in ISIS-held territory and the militant's unofficial "capital" in Iraq.

ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was purportedly seen leading prayers in the city's Grand Mosque shortly after capturing it in 2014, according to footage released by the organization's media arm.

ISIS has lost nearly a quarter of its territory over the past 15 months, according to a new data from analysts HIS, in the latest sign that the militants' once rapid advance has slowed.

 

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ISIS Terror
Mar 24 2016, 11:10 am ET

Syrian Forces Poised to Retake Ancient City of Palmyra: State TV

by Henry Austin

Video

Almost a year after ISIS seized control of the ancient city of Palmyra, Syrian government forces were on the verge of retaking the 2,000-year-old UNESCO world heritage site, an official and opposition monitoring group said.

"We might witness in the next 48-hours an overwhelming victory," Gov. Talal Barazi told the Associated Press from the nearby city of Homs. "The army is advancing in a precise and organized way to protect what is possible of monuments and archaeological sites."

However, the British based activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Russian-backed forces loyal to President Bashar Assad, were facing tough resistance in the "violent clashes" with the militant Islamist group.

The observatory, which monitors the conflict through a network of activists on the ground, added that ISIS had "planted large quantities of landmines" in and around the city.

However, more than 200 militants had died since the government began its campaign earlier this month, the observatory said. They did not have the figures for government losses.

Strategically the city is "not a major objective" for ISIS, according to Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

"ISIS' main lines of communications and trade were elsewhere," he said, but added that the group was "under pressure."

Cordesman, who has served numerous U.S. government roles and was awarded the Department of Defense Distinguished Service medal, added that the group was losing finances and there was a lot of anecdotal evidence that the people were trying to escape the group. Losing Palmyra would be "symbolically important," he said.

"Every time there is a loss it affects their morale, recruiting, their finances and it gives them problems establishing or maintaining control over populations that have very little reason to fall in love with them," he said.

Before ISIS swept into the city last May, Palmyra was designated a site of "outstanding universal value" by UNESCO, the United Nations cultural agency, which described the city as "one of the most important cultural centers of the ancient world."

Known as "Venice of the Sands," it was the crossroads for several civilizations and featured influences from ancient Rome, Greece and Persia.

Built on an oasis in the Syrian desert, the centerpiece of Palmyra's ruins was a 1,000-yard colonnaded main street that links to the remains of temples, a theater, houses and other public monuments. There was also a Roman aqueduct and what UNESCO called "immense necropolises."

But after taking the city, ISIS began to lay waste to the ancient site. They also beheaded Khaled al-Asaad — one of Syria's most prominent antiquities scholars, before strapping his body to one of the town's Roman columns.

Related: ISIS Beheads Archaeology 'Pioneer' in Palmyra

ISIS had reportedly tried to extract information from the 81-year-old about where some of the town's treasures had been hidden to save them from the militants, state media reported.

The group had previously destroyed a number of famed ancient sites in northern Iraq, including the Mosque of the Prophet Younis — or Jonah — and the Mosque of the Prophet Jirjis, two revered shrines near the city of Mosul.

The extremists have claimed they destroy the historic sites because they promote apostasy — but the group was also accused of looting "on an industrial scale" in Syria and selling some of the relics on the black market.

In Palmyra, they destroyed the Roman era temple of Baal Shamin, one of the most important sites in the ancient city, in August. Two months later they grew up the Arch of Triumph, a jewel in the exquisite collection of ruins in the oasis city.

 

[Possible Impact]

Ian56 ‏@Ian56789 5h
Erik Prince Under Investigation
For Trying to Rebuild His Blackwater Style Operations
https://theintercept.com/2016/03/24/blackwater-founder-erik-prince-under-federal-investigation/ …

^^^ A real life James Bond story!

 

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Defense & Security

Man Who Sold F-35 Secrets to China Pleads Guilty

By Justin Ling
March 24, 2016 | 9:09 am

Su Bin is facing five years in prison for his role as ringleader in one of the most elaborate and daring hacking operations uncovered in North America.

The 50-year-old Chinese citizen, who also held permanent residency in Canada, pled guilty this week after more than two years of legal proceedings. He copped to funneling information, with the cooperation of Chinese military officials, back to Beijing.

Su's life in Canada did little to arouse suspicion. He had a wife and two kids. He ran his own business — Lode Technologies, based in Beijing, but with an office in Vancouver. Quietly, he was the center of an international hacking organization that stole highly sensitive information from some of the world's most powerful defense companies.

"Su Bin admitted to playing an important role in a conspiracy, originating in China, to illegally access sensitive military data, including data relating to military aircraft that are indispensable in keeping our military personnel safe," said Assistant Attorney General Carlin in a statement.

He was extradited from British Columbia last year, after unsuccessfully fighting his removal from Canada, and appeared in a California courtroom on Wednesday to enter his plea. His conviction could lead to his deportation back to China.

Su was the North American arm of a three-pronged organization. Two officers from the Chinese military looked after most of the technical aspects of the operation, while Su appeared to handle the business side of things. Neither of the two officers appear to be facing charges in their home country, and haven't been named by the American Justice Department or the FBI.

The scheme worked like this: one of the military officers would send phishing emails to individuals at the target companies, usually purporting to be from a colleague or someone else in the industry. Once getting the employee to a website under their control, they can link their own system and begin installing malware, which gives them remote access to the directories containing the trade secrets, and allow them to worm into other sections of the company's network.

Once they were in the systems, they would copy the file directories and send them to Su, who would direct the officers on which folders and files to grab, translate the files into Chinese, and produce reports about the technology and information stolen from the systems.

Su "engaged in this conduct for the purpose of commercial gain, and specifically sought to profit from selling the data," his plea agreement reads. During the conspiracy, Su repeatedly sold this information to state-run Chinese companies for cash.

The FBI do not reveal just how much Su made, but some emails obtained from Su read that he was hoping for "big money" from the sales, but also contain emails between the three arguing about the sale of the data — "they are too stingy!" Su wrote to one of the officers of a major Chinese aircraft manufacturer.

One report reads that the "mission" had, over the course of a year, made "important contributions to our national defense scientific research development." In other reports, they write that the stolen information on the F-22 fighter jet will let them "rapidly catch up with US levels" and "stand easily on the giant's shoulders."

The data being stolen was proprietary to the defense companies and was strictly forbidden from being exported.

More than just technical data, the triumvirate also honed in on individuals.

In one 2009 email, with the subject line "Target," Su emailed one of the military officials the names, phone numbers, and positions of various American and European defense executives.

Other emails appear to contain technical data about aircraft, such as the Boeing's C-17 strategic transport aircraft. Another contains details on a flight test for another American military aircraft.

The C-17 is currently in use in a half-dozen other militaries, including Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, India, and NATO's air force.

According to Su's indictment, he managed to steal 630,000 files from Boeing's system, totalling some 65 gigabytes of data, from 2010 onwards. A report prepared by the hackers reads that "experts inside China have a high opinion" about the data on the C-17, and that they "were the first ever seen in the country."

He also managed to grab volumes of data relating to the F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, both of which are made by Lockheed Martin. The latter of the two is facing stiff criticism amid a struggling procurement process involving both America and Canada.

The hackers also targeted the Taiwanese military, obtaining "military maneuvers, warfare operation plans, strategic targets, espionage activities and so forth," according to Su's emails.

The hackers' immodesty may have been part of their downfall. In 2011, one of the Chinese officers emailed the other, attaching a report running through the success of their operation. It serves as a virtual confession of the entire operation.

The report included a list of "past achievements," bragging that they had obtained access to one company's File Transfer Protocol (FTP) and stole 20 gigabytes of data from it.

It went on to say that their hack had "collected a large amount of information and mailboxes of that targeted relevant personnel," regarding a development project for unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones. "We have also obtained the password for the customer management system of the supplier," the email goes on. "And controlled the customer information of that company."

The report boasts that the three had gained the ability to control the website of a company that made the "missile developed jointly by India and Russia" but, at the time of the email, had yet to do so.

The operation was complex, and expensive. The team said that they had servers set up in the United States, Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere to serve as "hop points," which act as intermediaries to mask the attacking computer's IP address. The hackers also had work stations in Hong Kong and Macao, in order to "avoid diplomatic and legal complications.

"The intelligence is always picked up and transferred to China in person," the hackers wrote. It also added that they undertook increasingly-serious counter-reconnaissance work "to ensure the secure obtainment of intelligence." The report extensively details the sort of activities the hackers took to avoid detection. They note that this was not cheap.

Su's eventual indictment notes that he and his cohorts may have exaggerated the success of this effort to a degree, and even the FBI officers were skeptical that he had managed to steal as much information as he claimed. In his plea agreement, however, Su admits he did, in fact, obtain and sell secret data from those companies.

As part of the sentencing agreement, Su agreed to turn over all data he stole from the American contractors, and agreed to have the Canadian courts send all the information they had seized from Su to America.

 

[Housecarl]

Ian56 ‏@Ian56789 5h
Erik Prince Under Investigation
For Trying to Rebuild His Blackwater Style Operations
https://theintercept.com/2016/03/24/blackwater-founder-erik-prince-under-federal-investigation/ …

^^^ A real life James Bond story!

Large article....Crux of it is the US Government is after him on charges of violations of U.S. Defense Export Regulations with a side of money laundering.

Story reads more like Frederick Forsyth's "Dogs of War" novel.

Basically they don't want him to operate for anyone, particularly if they're crosswise with current US policy, regardless of who they'd be fighting-likely as not IS/AQAM.

ETA: This is the kind of "resource" I had in mind when I've suggested that circumstances that aren't quite top tier foreign national security "problems" should be considered for a renewal of the use of Letters of Marque and Reprisal.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.newsweek.com/will-there-be-coup-against-erdogan-turkey-439181?rx=us

Opinion

Will There Be a Coup Against Erdogan in Turkey?

By Michael Rubin On 3/24/16 at 7:21 AM

___

http://www.aei.org/publication/could-there-be-a-coup-in-turkey/

Michael Rubin @mrubin1971
March 21, 2016 9:39 am | AEIdeas

Could there be a coup in Turkey?

Foreign and Defense Policy, Middle East

The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.

Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdoğan is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.

Erdoğan long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdoğan’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdoğan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?

In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdoğan engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.

Learn more:
| Here’s why terrorism will continue in Turkey
| What is terrorism?
| Who are the Kurds? . . . in 60 seconds

Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdoğan, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Bağış and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdoğan might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.

I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/is-north-korea-fighting-for-assad-in-syria/

Is North Korea Fighting for Assad in Syria?

Two North Korean militias are fighting for Bashar al-Assad the Syrian opposition claims.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
March 24, 2016

Two North Korean militia units are fighting alongside Syrian government forces a representative of a Syrian opposition delegation claimed in Geneva this week, according to TASS.

Asaad al-Zoubi, a leading figure in the so-called High Negotiations Committee delegation, the Saudi-backed main opposition bloc, revealed the information amidst ongoing U.N.-sponsored peace talks on Syria in Geneva on Tuesday.

“Two North Korean units are there, which are Chalma-1 and Chalma-7,” al Zoubi said. According to the opposition, a former colonel in the Syrian Arab Army who now heads the Free Syrian Army in the south of the country, the North Korean fighters are “fatally dangerous.”

Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, there have been repeated rumors of North Korean military involvement including the transfer of arms and the presence of military advisers in the country.

However, as of now, there is no hard evidence that North Korean troops are on the ground fighting alongside the pro-Assad forces or that Pyongyang is currently providing material support to the Syrian government.

Nevertheless, North Korean involvement is not impossible and there is a long history to Syrian-North Korean military cooperation as the U.S.-Korea Institute points out in an analysis.

North Korea over the last decades repeatedly supplied Syria with military hardware including armored personnel carriers, anti-tank weapons, rifles, and heavy artillery.

In the 1970s and 80s, North Korea also helped upgrade hundreds of Soviet-made T-54 and T-55 tanks in service with the Syrian Arab Army (including upgrading the turrets and equipping the armored vehicles with North Korean-designed laser rangefinders).

North Korea also supplied Syria with an unknown number of MANPADS (man-portable air-defense system), which are still in use as a 2014 picture of an ISIS fighter confirms.

In addition, North Korea sold Scud-C transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and cluster warheads to Syria and allegedly also provided substantial technical assistance for Assad’s atomic and chemical weapons programs over the years.

North Korea has a history of boots on the ground in Syria. For example, Pyongyang sent 25 pilots to Syria during the Arab-Israeli War of 1967, 30 pilots during the 1973 Arab-Israeli (to both Syria and Egypt), and 40 pilots and 75 air force instructors in 1975 and 1976. The Korean pilots provided training and in some instances even flew combat missions against Israel.

During the 1980s, North Korea dispatched special operations forces to Syria to help train the conventional Syrian Arab Army and its allies in insurgency tactics. “In 1984-1986 and 1990, 50 and 30 North Korean military instructors were sent to Syria, respectively,” the U.S.-Korea Institute analysis elaborates.

North Korean soldiers allegedly also operated 122 millimeter truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers (the weapon systems were supplied by Pyongyang) during the 1982 Islamic uprising in the city of Hama. Up to 25,000 civilians were killed when Syrian government forces suppressed the uprising by indiscriminately shelling the city with artillery.

One of the key facilitators in the early stages of the civil purportedly was the late Chief of the Korea’s People’s Army Staff, General Kim Kyok Sik. Beginning in the 1970s, he served for over a decade as Pyongyang’s military attaché in Damascus.

Yet, have there been concrete examples of North Korean soldiers fighting in the ongoing civil war? There, the evidence is not conclusive.

For instance, the U.S. Korea Institute claims that during a 2013 battle North Korean soldiers were instrumental in defeating anti-government forces in a pitched battle. “Arab-speaking North Korean military advisors were integral to the operational planning of the surprise attack and artillery campaign execution during the battle for Qusair (…).”

Likewise in 2013, NK News cited Rami Abd-al-Rahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who said “that North Korean officers are taking part alongside the regular forces in the fighting in Aleppo.”

Furthermore, al-Rahman explained that “the overall number of these officers is unknown but there are certainly between 11 and 15 North Korean officers and the majority of them speak Arabic. . .(they) are deployed at several fronts such as the defense factories southeast of Aleppo and at the regular forces’ bases inside the city itself.”

Yet, there are no publicly accessible pictures of North Korean soldiers on the ground and no reports of North Korean soldiers killed, captured, or wounded in Syria.

What does North Korea get out of fighting on the ground alongside Assad forces?

First, North Korean soldiers can gain valuable combat experience which, among other things, can help inform future infantry tactics of the Korean People’s Army. Second, the North Korean military can also gain insights into irregular warfare tactics as practiced by the Syrian Arab Army, Hizbollah, and Iranian forces in Syria. Last, the battlefield in Syria can provide North Korean officers with insights how its own Soviet-era equipment would do in a war against Western military hardware.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...counterterrorism-force-burkina-faso/82210250/

France to station counterterrorism force in Burkina Faso

Oscar Nkala, Defense News 12:51 p.m. EDT March 24, 2016

GABORONE, Botswana — The French government says it will soon deploy a paramilitary police special forces battalion to Burkina Faso with the mandate of providing a rapid-response capability in the event of terrorist attacks anywhere in the West African sub-region.

Nearly two weeks ago, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for a terrorism attack that left 18 people dead and several others injured after gunmen stormed the Grand Bassam beach resort in Ivory Coast. The attack was the third to hit the region since November, having been preceded by similar attacks in the Burkinabe capital Ouagadougou and the Malian capital Bamako.

The victims of the Ivorian attack included four French citizens and prompted a hastily organized meeting in which Ivorian President Alassane Ouatarra and French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve discussed regional security and how to improve the fight against terrorism.

Addressing a press conference convened in Yamoussoukro after a series of closed-door meetings which were also attended by Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Aryault, Cazeneuve said the police special force to be stationed in Burkina Faso would enable France to implement coordinated rapid response operations with regional forces in the event of terrorist attacks.

“The desire to position this Gendarmerie team in Ouagadougou will enable us to react immediately and dispense advice and coordinate other responsive actions in the event of a terrorist crisis anywhere in West Africa. The GIGN (French paramilitary police) elements will intervene rapidly and provide partner special counterterrorism training in the event of terror attacks in the region," Cazeneuve said.

However, Cazenevue did not provide a timeline or the exact number of troops to be deployed. He said France wants to reassure its citizens and regional allies that it shares their concerns and is willing to expand the regional fight against terrorism.

France has received numerous threats from AQIM and in northwest Africa after it deployed the army to retake Northern Mali from the group and its affiliates early in 2013.

After ousting AQIM from northern Mali in 2014, the French Army further infuriated regional militias by deploying 3,500 counterterrorism special forces to northwest Africa under "Operation Barkhane."

Despite early successes, the operation has largely failed to prevent terrorist groups from expanding operations in the region.

At least 80 people have been killed in the three attacks that have hit Mali, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast in the last five months.

According to security analysts, struggling West Africans will still face serious challenges in dealing with terrorism despite the French assistance.

"A committed assault against what is supposed to be a well-secured high-value target can be achieved fairly simply. States in the region simply don't have the resources to deal with the terror threat, so we should expect more of such attacks," Andre Colling, a security analyst with British crisis management firm Red24, told the BBC in London.

So far, more than 15 people have been arrested with the Ivorian attack. Early this week, Al Qaeda claimed yet another attack on the European Union military headquarters in Bamako, Mali. However, there were no casualties as the raid was repelled by security forces who killed four of the attackers.

Email: onkala@defensenews.com

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKCN0WR0C9

World | Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:28am EDT
Related: World, United Nations, South Korea

North Korea threatens South's Blue House as tensions persist

SEOUL | By Jack Kim

North and South Korea, locked for weeks in exchanges of angry rhetoric and heightened military readiness, traded more threats on Friday, with Pyongyang saying its military had trained to attack Seoul's presidential Blue House.

Isolated North Korea is renowned for its saber-rattling, and often makes threats of attack and even annihilation against South Korea and the United States.

However, its tone has been especially belligerent in recent weeks and personally aimed at South Korean President Park Geun-hye following her warnings of regime collapse in Pyongyang after it conducted a nuclear test and rocket launch earlier this year.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un guided what state media said on Friday was the North's largest ever exercise of long-range artillery training, with a simulated attack on South Korea's presidential and government offices.

Kim ordered his military to be on high alert "so that it may mercilessly pound the reactionary ruling machines in Seoul, the cesspool of evils, and advance to accomplish the historic cause of national reunification, once it receives an order for attack," the official KCNA news agency said.

Tensions have been high on the Korean peninsula since the North conducted a nuclear test in January and a long-range rocket launch in February, which prompted new sanctions earlier this month by the United Nations Security Council. Annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises, which are ongoing, have added to the jitters.

The tensions also come ahead of a rare congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party in May. Some analysts expects Kim to claim a signature achievement, such as another nuclear test, in the run-up to the congress as he looks to bolster his stature at home.

Park warned the North to end provocative actions and "escape from the illusion" that it will benefit from nuclear armament, ordering her country's military to maintain "maximum combat power."

"Reckless provocation will be the road to destruction for the North's regime," Park said at an anniversary event for the 2010 sinking of a naval ship that killed 46 people. The South blames the sinking on a torpedo attack by the North, which denies any role.

The North conducted its fourth nuclear test in January, saying that it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb although many experts doubt the claim.

But some U.S. intelligence analysts now believe the North "probably" possesses a miniaturized nuclear warhead, CNN reported on Friday, citing several unnamed U.S. officials, although the assessment is not the consensus view of the U.S. government.

But even those officials say they still do not know if such a device would actually work, CNN said.

Rocket experts have said the North has yet to demonstrate it can launch a ballistic missile mounted with a nuclear warhead that can sustain the stress of atmospheric re-entry and then be guided to hit a target with reliability.


(Editing by Tony Munroe and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International/americans-killed-terror-attacks-brussels/story?id=37922241

2 Americans Killed in Terror Attacks in Brussels

By ABC NEWS · Mar 25, 2016, 7:22 AM ET

At least two Americans were killed in this week's terror attacks in Brussels, a U.S. official said Friday as Secretary of State John Kerry was meeting with leaders in Belgium.

The official and Kerry didn't identify the two Americans, who were among at least 31 killed in the attacks. Kerry spoke alongside Belgian prime minister Charles Michel and foreign minister Didier Reynders on Friday, offering his condolences for those killed in the attacks.

"The United States is praying and grieving with you for the loved ones of those cruelly taken from us, including Americans, and for the many who were injured in these despicable attacks," he said.

As Kerry announced the deaths of the two Americans, police had arrested at least seven people during raids in Brussels as the manhunt continued for two suspects in the bombings.

Authorities have been looking for the two since Tuesday -- a man seen on surveillance video at the Brussels airport and a man linked to the bombing of the metro station.

Officials have not identified either suspect, but a U.S. official said the man seen at the airport was already in U.S. terrorism databases at the time of the attacks.


3 Dutch Citizens Killed in Brussels Attacks
Brussels Terror Attacks Put Europe on High Alert
Tribute to Brussels Bombing Victims From Around the World

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/a-...pability-1458857659-lMyQjAxMTA2OTIyNTMyNTUwWj

Opinion | Commentary

A Bad Time to Cut U.S. Nuclear Capability

Short-term budget gains would be risky as dangers keep rising.

By Matthew R. Costlow
March 24, 2016 6:14 p.m. ET
6 COMMENTS

It is budget season in Washington, and nuclear-disarmament doves have again morphed into budget hawks. The familiar pitch is also back: Reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal will ease global tensions, enlighten world leaders and save scarce defense dollars.

These suggestions might seem reasonable if one assumes that the defense budget is being crushed by nuclear modernization programs and that effective deterrence can be maintained with much fewer nuclear weapons. Both assumptions are wrong—and threaten the future safety of the U.S. and its allies.

In 2001 budget analyst David Mosher referred to the search for savings in the nuclear budget as “the hunt for small potatoes.” The many fixed costs associated with maintaining U.S. nuclear systems—and a relatively small budgetary footprint to begin with—don’t offer sizable savings over the long term. U.S. nuclear forces currently make up about 2%-3% of the U.S. defense budget. Even when the biggest bills for modernization come due in the late 2020s, like the replacement strategic submarine and bomber, the total estimated cost won’t reach 5% of the budget. Since the number of nuclear weapons in the national stockpile has fallen over 75% since 1991, there is little margin left to cut.

Yet analysts like Lawrence Korb and Adam Mount of the Center for American Progress have put forward plans that significantly reduce the U.S. nuclear arsenal while saving, they claim, $120 billion over 30 years. Even if the U.S. can save that much, and if the average base defense budget is $500 billion annually over the next 30 years, the potential savings amount to less than 1% of total outlays.

There are better ways to meet or exceed the $4 billion in annual savings that nuclear-disarmament advocates propose. The Congressional Budget Office recently reported that the government could save between $3.1 billion and $5.7 billion annually by shifting some noncombat, military-support jobs to civilian employees. This can be done without harming current conventional or nuclear capabilities.

Nuclear reductions would also have serious strategic implications for U.S. adversaries, as well as NATO and Asian allies. Responding to Russian, Chinese and North Korean aggression by withdrawing nuclear weapons from Europe or cutting replacement submarines (as Messrs. Korb and Mount call for) won’t comfort U.S. partners or deter revanchist leaders like Vladimir Putin.

Though the Cold War is over, the possibility of interstate warfare, including nuclear clashes, has endured. Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and apparent willingness to employ nuclear weapons in a conventional-regional war presents the U.S. nuclear arsenal with an unprecedented challenge to deterrence stability.

As Robert Scher, assistant secretary of defense, recently told Congress: Flexible and resilient U.S. nuclear capabilities are critical when the U.S. “must not only avoid unintended escalation, but also deter deliberate nuclear escalation like that envisioned in Russia’s current strategy.”

If the heavily sanctioned Russian economy can sustain Mr. Putin’s nuclear modernization plans, the U.S. can afford to modernize its arsenal as well. A lack of political will in Washington is the only obstacle to adequately funding weapons meant to deter a nuclear attack against the homeland and U.S. allies. And that is no small potato.

Mr. Costlow is a policy analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/24/the-islamic-state-is-training-fighters-faster-than-we-are/

The Islamic State Is Training Fighters Faster Than We Are

By William Tobey
March 24, 2016 - 1:30 pm

(Pay article)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2138

3/24/2016

Air Force Worried About Potential Iranian Space Launch

By Allyson Versprille

Iran's near-term plans to launch a larger, more capable rocket into space has one Air Force official concerned that the vehicle could be used as a missile against the United States or its allies.

"The concerning part to me is that the rocket that they use, that launch satellite, could … [have] a dual-use purpose," said Lt. Gen. Jay Raymond, Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations. "The ability to put a satellite into orbit is the same capability ... as a harmful missile," he told reporters at a Washington, D.C., breakfast March 24.

Between 2009 and 2015, Iran successfully placed four satellites into orbit using a small rocket called the Safir. The Safir is based on the Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile. The rocket that the country plans to use in the upcoming launch is the Simorgh, a more powerful and capable rocket that could put larger satellites into orbit.

The Iranians displayed a mock-up for the two-stage Simorgh for the first time in February 2010. "Iran’s government has announced the maiden launch of the Simorgh several times since 2010, most recently in a window ending on March 10, 2016, but it has not yet happened," said Greg Thielmann, a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association, a non-profit located in Washington, D.C.

The cancellation of the March launch could point to performance issues with the system, he said. "It's a very big question now whether or not they are ready, or whether there have been some technical glitches that have prevented the launch."

Some in the United States have said the system is a cover for the country's development of an intercontinental ballistic missile — or an "ICBM in drag" — according to Thielmann.

However those claims are overblown, he said. "A lot of the things that you hear about this, that it would be the appearance of an ICBM missile threat against the United States, is just wrong."

There are significant differences in the requirements for a space vehicle launch and a military missile, he told National Defense.

"A space rocket that launches a satellite only does part of what needs to be done to test or to demonstrate competence in the technology needed for a military missile," he said. "For very long range, like intercontinental range, the stress on a warhead that returns to the atmosphere is intense — the vibration, the heat. It's not something that you want to happen to anything as delicate as a nuclear weapon."

It is a significant technological hurdle for any country to develop a warhead that can reenter the atmosphere, while remaining accurate enough to hit its target, Thielmann said. "The Iranians have never tested that. The Simorgh — if it launched a satellite — would not be testing that."

The power required in the second stage of a launch is another difference between a space vehicle and a military missile, he noted. The "low-powered thrust that gently puts a satellite in orbit is very different than the kind of high power you need to achieve maximum range and a trajectory that results in an explosion at the other end."

Additionally, the Simorgh that was represented in the 2010 mock-up would barely qualify as an intercontinental ballistic missile, which since the Cold War has been identified as a warhead with a 5,500-kilometer range, he said. "The Simorgh probably has less than that, but it certainly would not have the 9,000-kilometer range needed to reach the United States from Iran. It would not even come close."

When it comes to Iran's ballistic missile program "it is often less than advertised," Thielmann said. For years, the United States predicted that the Iranians could test launch an ICBM by 2015, which still hasn't happened, he said.

"2015 has come and gone and you finally had the U.S. military leadership and intelligence community move back, by several years, their date of when Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile," he said. "But they haven't quite acted fully on this because we're still aiming to deploy more advanced missile interceptors in Poland by 2018. It's almost as if neither the Iran Nuclear Deal nor the fading ICBM threat has been taken into consideration in U.S. policy."

 

[Housecarl]

And these Adam Henries, the Iraqi Army, are claiming to be opening up the offensive to retake Mosul...WTF?!?!?!?

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/25/iraqis-retreated-this-marine-died.html

Nancy A. Youssef
SACRIFICED
03.24.16 10:15 PM ET

Iraqis Retreated, This Marine Died

Staff Sgt. Louis Cardin was sent to defend a base the Iraqis had largely abandoned. Hours later, he was killed by an ISIS rocket strike.

The local Iraqi troops had fled the base, retreating into the mountains. That’s why the U.S. military dispatched 200 Marines to a remote outpost in northern Iraq—leading to the death of a Marine just hours later.

The Iraqis had decided the location was too dangerous to stay in, three defense officials told The Daily Beast. The arrival of the Marines, U.S. officials hoped, would give the Iraqis the backbone to fight.

The Iraqis, members of that nation’s 15th Division, had arrived at the base near the city of Makhmour six weeks earlier with great fanfare, greeted by the Iraqi Minister of Defense. Almost immediately, they began retreating from the base amid a barrage of ISIS strikes. Four Iraqi troops at the base were reportedly killed this month by ISIS strikes.

By the time Staff Sgt. Louis Cardin and roughly 200 fellow members of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived nearly three weeks ago, all that remained at the base were Iraqi headquarters units that had built infrastructure needed to protect themselves.

The rest of the forces “tactically dispersed,” realizing the base was too dangerous, one defense official explained to The Daily Beast. “They dispersed into the mountains out of an abundance of caution.”

Once the Iraqis refused to make a move on ISIS, the U.S. quickly decided to deploy the Marines alongside the Iraqi forces. The U.S. move to dispatch its Marines to the temporary outpost, known as a fire base, had been made only a month ago.

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Marine Staff Sgt. Louis Cardin
The Marines were tasked to move onto the fire base and secure the Iraqi forces assigned to the front lines of the push toward ISIS’s Iraqi capital, Mosul. Working alongside their Iraqi counterparts, the Marines would then push the Iraqis to fight for territory, providing them not just with airstrikes but also with artillery fire.

With much of the rank and file Iraqi troops hiding in the nearby mountains, the mission became more about pushing the local forces to fight. Above else, U.S. military planners hoped the Marine presence would break the Iraqi military logjam to move forward.

On Thursday, the latest approach led to moderate results. Members of the Iraqi division, with help from the Marines, took three villages in Makhmour. The villages were largely abandoned and the total movement forward was less than a mile, but in the push to get the Iraqis to take the lead, the U.S. military considered it a win.

Before the Marines arrived, the Iraqi security forces had never tried to take turf around Makhmour.

“I don’t know if the Iraqis would have launched the attack without that [American] artillery,” a U.S. defense official explained.

But the small victory is far from taking back Mosul, which fell to ISIS control in June 2014 after Iraqi troops walked away from their posts.

Makhmour fell to ISIS hands shortly after Mosul did, in August, 2014. Last August, U.S. officials confirmed ISIS used mustard gas against Kurdish peshmerga forces there, sickening dozens.

Makhmour is now considered the staging area for an Iraqi offensive on Mosul. In fact, officials announced Thursday that the advance around Makhmour was the start of the plan to take back Mosul from ISIS. But the fact that it took 200 Marines to get one of Iraq’s better divisions to move on abandoned villages did not portend well for that upcoming operation.

Moreover, the latest U.S. strategy, which put American troops in increased harm’s way, happened without any public pronouncement of a ramped up U.S. engagement in the war against ISIS. The Pentagon did not announce that the Marines were at the fire base until after Cardin died. All the while ISIS watched the arrival of the troops and artillery units, meaning ISIS knew more about U.S. troops’ movements than the American public did.

Even when public pronouncements are made, they often prove obsolete within days. Just days ago, U.S. military officials said the Marines were in Makhmour as a defensive force. On Thursday, defense officials conceded that they’re part of the offensive push to claim the surrounding villages.

The Marines were deployed to the fire base because they could arrive fastest to back up their Iraqi counterparts. They are supposed to stay just a short while, perhaps as little as a month, when they will be replaced by an Army unit, two officials explained.

The Iraqis hope to turn the base over to Kurdish forces after Mosul falls. But privately, American officials consider that a long-term prospect. Right now, the U.S. simply hopes to build a little momentum off of Thursday’s advances.

U.S. officials were reticent to publicly celebrate the gains in Makhmour not only because of how little progress it marked in the move toward Mosul, but the cost it came at.

Cardin died within days of arriving from an ISIS rocket strike that hit his bunker. He was the second U.S. combat death in the war against the so-called Islamic State.

 

[Housecarl]

How do you say chutzpah in Mandarin?.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-media-laud-hacker-us-spying-051438039.html

Chinese media laud hacker for US spying

AFP
2 hours ago

Beijing (AFP) - Spying on the US is a service to China, state-run media said Wednesday, singing the praises of a man who confessed to hacking American defence contractors on Beijing's behalf.

Chinese national Su Bin, 50, pleaded guilty to stealing trade secrets from the companies, including plans for transport planes and fighter jets.

In a plea agreement filed Wednesday, he admitted to conspiring with two unnamed persons in China to try to acquire plans for F-22 and F-35 fighter jets and C-17 transport aircraft.

Boeing, the American airplane manufacturer, was among the companies hacked.

If he had done so, "we are willing to show our gratitude and respect for his service to our country", said an editorial in the Global Times, a nationalistic newspaper with close ties to the ruling Communist Party.

"On the secret battlefield without gunpowder, China needs special agents to gather secrets from the US," it added.

But it also questioned whether the plea agreement reflected the truth of the matter, saying that while the US has arrested "quite a few 'Chinese spies'... most of them proved to be innocent".

"As the 'war of information' between China and the US continues", it said, "there will probably be more Chinese framed as spies."

Asked about the case, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that Beijing "firmly opposes and does not support any cyberhacking activities".

Washington and Beijing have repeatedly clashed over what the US describes as rampant cyberspying by the Chinese government on US industry.

Last year, the US indicted five Chinese military officers on charges of cyberspying.

In the 1990s, Taiwanese-American Wen Ho Lee was accused of spying for the Chinese government, but eventually pleaded guilty to only one minor charge in an embarrassing debacle that ended in an apology from then US president Bill Clinton.

Chinese-born US citizen Chi Mak was jailed for 24 years in 2008 for conspiring to smuggle sensitive US submarine technology to China.


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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/st...16f49ec/AS--Koreas-Tension-Festering-Rhetoric

Day after day, North Korea claims worrying development in its weapons programs and ramps up fiery threats to attack rivals South Korea and the United States

By KIM TONG-HYUNG and HYUNG-JIN KIM Associated Press
March 25, 2016 - 7:30 am EDT

SEOUL, South Korea — Day after day, North Korea boasts of new weapons programs developments and unleashes fiery threats to attack rivals South Korea and the United States.

On Friday, for example, the North's state media said it staged its largest-ever long-range artillery drills aimed at bringing the "most miserable doom to the U.S. imperialists and the South Korean puppet group of traitors."

The North's threats are an apparent response to ongoing South Korea-U.S. military drills that it describes as a dress rehearsal for an invasion. If the past is any guide, most of Pyongyang's warlike threats will likely turn out to be empty propaganda and gradually subside when the allies' springtime training ends in late April.

But there is always a small chance that North Korea could launch some kind of surprise attack. Two 2010 assaults blamed on Pyongyang were totally unexpected: the torpedoing of a warship and shelling of a border island that together killed 50 South Koreans. Pyongyang denies responsibility for the torpedoing that occurred when the same South Korea-U.S. drills were under way, though it acknowledged bombarding the island.

Here is a look at North Korea's recent bellicose threats, claims and weapons launches. __

THREATS OF NUCLEAR STRIKES

At the start of the allies' drills on March 7, North Korea's powerful National Defense Commission, led by absolute leader Kim Jong Un, warned of a "pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice" on Washington and Seoul.

While such rhetoric is relatively common, it intensified as the North furiously reacted to tough U.N. sanctions imposed for its nuclear test and long-range rocket launch earlier this year.

North Korea is known to have a handful of rudimentary atomic bombs. But analysts say it is highly unlikely the North would actually carry out its threat of nuclear attacks due to concerns of massive retaliation by the superior U.S. and South Korean militaries that would probably end Kim's rule.

Last week, state media said Kim ordered tests of a nuclear warhead explosion and ballistic missiles capable of warheads, but there are no signs tests have been carried out.

__

WEAPONS LAUNCHES

In recent weeks, North Korea has fired a slew of short-range missiles and artillery shells into the sea in an apparent response to the South Korea-U.S. drills. Last Friday, it launched a medium-range ballistic missile into waters off its east coast for the first time since 2014.

North Korea routinely tests short-range missiles and artillery systems but it tends to do more launches in times of tension with the outside world.

Among the weapons tested this month was what North Korea called a new large-caliber artillery rocket system, which experts believe could reach Seoul, a metropolitan area of 10 million. South Korean experts believe the new launchers can fire 300-millimeter rockets up to 200 kilometers (125 miles).

PHOTO: South Korean President Park Geun-hye, center, attends "West Sea Protection Day," a memorial and national security awareness ceremony at Daejeon National Cemetery in Daejeon, South Korea Friday, March 25 2016. The Yellow Sea, also known as the West Sea in South Korea, are disputed waters between North and South Korea, where North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong island killed four people in 2010. (Jeon Heon-kyun/Pool Photo via AP)
South Korean President Park Geun-hye, center, attends "West Sea Protection Day," a memorial and national security awareness ceremony at Daejeon National Cemetery in Daejeon, South Korea Friday, March 25 2016. The Yellow Sea, also known as the West Sea in South Korea, are disputed waters between North and South Korea, where North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong island killed four people in 2010. (Jeon Heon-kyun/Pool Photo via AP)

__

DISCLOSING NUCLEAR CAPABILTY

North Korea has gone to great lengths to tout its alleged advancements in nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

The North's official media on March 9 showed a smiling Kim posing with nuclear scientists beside what appeared to be a model trigger device of a nuclear warhead. Kim declared warheads had been miniaturized for use on ballistic missiles, according to the report.

Days later, the North claimed to have mastered a re-entry technology that is designed to protect a warhead from extreme heat and other challenges when it returns to the atmosphere from space following a missile launch.

The miniaturization and re-entry technologies are among the last major hurdles that foreign experts say the North must tackle to accomplish its goal of manufacturing a nuclear-armed missile that can reach the continental U.S.

South Korean defense officials, however, say there is no proof that North Korea has a functioning intercontinental ballistic missile.

On Thursday, North Korea created a stir by claiming it had successfully conducted a high-powered, solid-fuel rocket engine test. Solid-fuel missiles are generally harder to detect before they are launched than liquid-fuel missiles. South Korea said it needs to analyze the North's claim.

__

SEA OF FIRE

When North Korea threatened to turn Seoul into a "sea of flames" in 1994, alarmed Seoul residents rushed to stock up on instant noodles and other supplies. But after repeated similar threats that were never carried out, most South Koreans now react with indifference.

In recent weeks, North Korea again fired verbal salvos, saying it will "liberate" South Korea, launch attacks with the new artillery rockets to "instantly destroy" Seoul's presidential palace and turn the city into a "sea of flames."

While South Korea's president ordered a heightened security posture, the largely unflustered public has been more preoccupied with political squabbling ahead of next month's parliamentary elections, the start of baseball season and the new hit soap opera, "Descendants of the Sun."

__

Follow Kim Tong-hyung at http://www.twitter.com/KimTongHyung

Follow Hyung-jin Kim on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/hyungjin1972

 

[Housecarl]

Report from DoD, US SF unit took out IS#2 leader in raid in Syria. Awaiting Sec of Def Carter news conference. Info gotten in Brussels raids lead to operation...

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?488080-IS-2-Taken-Out-in-US-Special-Forces-Raid

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/europe/brussels-investigation/

Brussels attacks: Suspect wounded, arrested in Belgian police operation

By Greg Botelho, Holly Yan and Frederik Pleitgen, CNN
Updated 3:14 PM ET, Fri March 25, 2016 | Video Source: CNN

Video

Brussels, Belgium (CNN) — Explosions and gunfire rang out Friday afternoon in Brussels -- the focal point in Europe's fight against terrorism following the bloody attacks there just three days ago.

A police operation took place in the district of Schaerbeek, near where a taxi driver on Tuesday picked up three men and brought them to Brussels Airport. There, two of those carried out suicide bombings while authorities think the other escaped; about an hour later, a fresh blast rocked a train near the Maelbeek metro station.

Witnesses told CNN they heard two explosions, while others reported gunfire.

One man said that his son, who has a shop inside the closed-off area, saw an armed individual emerging from a metro shop who was then shot in the leg by police.

The operation ended with the arrest of one person linked to Tuesday's terrorist attacks in the Belgian capital, Schaerbeek Mayor Bernard Clerfayt told Belgian public broadcaster RTBF.

The mayor said that arrested person was wounded. It was not clear if that individual was the same one the shopkeeper saw shot in the leg.

Authorities earlier conducted searches in Schaerbeek for several hours Thursday into Friday morning, sealing off streets for several blocks. At one point, masked teams in hazmat gear could be seen exiting a building and heading toward a police van.

And -- acting on the taxi driver's tip -- they'd raided a Schaerbeek apartment days earlier and uncovered 15 kilograms of the explosive TATP, chemicals, a suitcase with nails and screws, an ISIS flag and other equipment meant to make explosives, according to Belgian federal prosecutor Frederic Van Leeuw.

Van Leeuw also noted police found, on a computer in a nearby trash can, the will of one of the airport suicide bombers, Ibrahim El Bakraoui.


Can Europe stop the next attack?

These kinds of police actions suggest authorities' urgency not only to learn more about what happened Tuesday in Brussels, but to prevent the next attack.

At least six people were arrested overnight in Belgium, while a man in France suspected of being in an "advance stage" of planning his own attack was also detained. Afterward, law enforcement found 2 kilograms (4.4 pounds) of TATP and a Kalashnikov rifle were found in a raid in Argenteuil on Paris' outskirts, a source briefed on the investigation said.

Investigators know of additional plots in Europe, in various stages of planning, linked to the same networks behind November's Paris attacks and the latest ones in Brussels that left 31 people dead and 300 more wounded, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials. Those terrorists are tied to ISIS, the Islamist extremist group that's taken over swaths of Syria and Iraq while also lashing out elsewhere around the world.

There's also a growing feeling that those opposing ISIS can do more. Some of this relates to continuing military efforts in the Middle East. Some has to do with better intelligence and cooperation among allies.

Belgium, especially, has come under fire. Interior Minister Jan Jambon offered to resign after acknowledging missed opportunities to stop one of the suicide bombers, Ibrahim El Bakraoui. And Prime Minister Charles Michel said he talked with Kerry about how "to do better (and) work together to be more efficient."

Michel added, "We need to accept that we need to improve the fight against terrorism in Europe and in Belgium."

Faces of fear and hope

Who are the Brussels victims?

Unraveling the web of the attacks

Survivors tell their stories

How officials failed to join the dots


Raids, roundup in Brussels

His government's police forces arrested nine people total between Thursday and Friday evening, according to the federal prosecutor's office.

Six were detained Thursday night -- three outside the prosecutor's office, two in a vehicle in Brussels' Jette neighborhood, and one in a different part of the Belgian capital. Of those, three have since been released.

One man was injured in the leg and arrested Friday morning in Brussels' Forest district, with another caught in Saint-Gilles. Lastly, there's the Schaerbeek arrest Friday afternoon.

Terror attacks in Brussels
22 photos: Terror attacks in Brussels

The tactic of detaining people first and asking questions later will likely become increasingly common, CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem said.

"There will be lots more of them," she said. "They are going to be what's called over-broad. They are going to just try to find people or evidence that may stop the next terrorism attack, and they will figure out who they have under custody."

Blood-covered toddler cries over fallen mom

Report: Man detained in Germany had revealing texts

Arrests were carried out beyond Belgium and France.

In Giessen, a German town about 70 kilometers (43 miles) north of Frankfurt, police arrested a 28-year-old Moroccan man following a routine police check at a train station, German public broadcaster ARD reported Friday.

The ID check revealed that the man -- a known delinquent in Italy and Germany, where he's unsuccessfully requested asylum -- is barred from much of Europe, according to the report. Another red flag came up later: He had checked into a hospital for an unspecified injury on March 18, the same day Paris attack suspect Salah Abdeslam was captured in a bloody raid in Brussels.

According to the ARD report, police later found a text message on the man's phone that read "fin" ("end") that came in a few minutes before the last Brussels explosion on Tuesday.

Another text contained the name of Khalid El Bakraoui, a man authorities believe blew himself up in Tuesday's Brussels metro station attack, a source briefed by German officials told CNN. The arrested Moroccan received that message three minutes before the metro explosion, the source said.

It is believed the Moroccan had direct contact with the Brussels attackers' immediate network in the house before those blasts, ARD reported.


Kerry: 'We will not be intimidated'

Three of those involved, and killed, in the Brussels attacks have been identified: ISIS bomb-maker Najim Laachraoui and Ibrahim El Bakraoui at the airport, and El Bakraoui's brother Khalid El Bakraoui on a train near the Maelbeek metro station.

Authorities also were looking for two other men.

One appears in surveillance footage holding a large bag at a Brussels metro station, according to Belgian public broadcaster RTBF. It is possible that he, like Khalid El Bakraoui, didn't survive the subway blast.

The other is in another surveillance image wearing a hat and light-colored clothing alongside Laachraoui and Ibrahim El Bakraoui, with all three men rolling luggage carts through Brussels Airport.

Who are the Brussels terror suspects?

This individual allegedly planted a bomb and left. That bomb didn't go off immediately, though it did detonate later -- by which time authorities were on site and no one was killed or injured. The U.S. government thinks they know this person's name and are sharing that information with Belgian authorities, a U.S. official said Friday.

Secretary of State John Kerry vowed the same day that his government will "provide any assistance necessary" to Belgium in their shared fight against terrorism.

"We will not be intimidated, we will not be deterred, and we will come back with greater resolve, with greater strength," Kerry said. "And we will not rest until we have eliminated your nihilistic beliefs and cowardice from the face of this Earth."


'We are not safe anywhere'

It's hard to escape the tension in Brussels where soldiers line the streets near the central subway station, their hands gripping guns.


World reacts to Brussels bombings
23 photos: World reacts to Brussels bombings

"We all know that we are not safe anywhere," one woman said. "It can happen anywhere and at any moment."

The effects are felt in many ways, including in neighborhoods swarmed by police and near the attack sites. Brussels Airport, for instance, won't have passenger flights until Sunday at the earliest.

Brussels Airport
✔ ýý@BrusselsAirport

No passenger flights into or out of #brusselsairport until 27 March included. Contact your airline for flight info http://bit.ly/1MBU8TF

12:43 AM - 25 Mar 2016
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"Because the forensic investigation is still underway," the airport explained on its website, "we currently have no access to the (bombed) building. Until we can assess the damage, it remains unclear when we can resume operations."

A Belgian man said the whole atmosphere has "the feeling of war." That may be true, but others welcome the added security.

"It makes me safe," one woman said. "A lot safer."

How to help victims of Brussels attacks

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reported from Brussels; Greg Botelho and Holly Yan reported and wrote in Atlanta. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh, Catherine E. Shoichet, Mick Krever, Phil Black, Anna Maja Rappard, Paul Cruickshank, Margot Haddad and journalist Pierre-Eliott Buet contributed to this report.